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Understanding
Crypto
Fundamentals
Value Investing in Cryptoassets and
Management of Underlying Risks
―
Thomas Jeegers
Understanding Crypto
Fundamentals
Value Investing in Cryptoassets
and Management of Underlying Risks
Thomas Jeegers
Understanding Crypto Fundamentals: Value Investing in Cryptoassets and
Management of Underlying Risks
Thomas Jeegers
Vienna, Austria
Preface������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ xiii
Introduction�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xvii
v
Table of Contents
References������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 305
Index��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 315
vi
About the Author
Thomas Jeegers studied economics and computer
science, with master’s degrees from the Catholic University
of Louvain and Maastricht University and an MBA
from INSEAD.
Specialized in financial risk management and
blockchain technology, Thomas has worked in finance for
the past ten years. In parallel to his work, he completed
the advanced financial certifications Chartered Financial
Analyst (CFA) and Financial Risk Manager (FRM), as well
as multiple blockchain certifications from institutions
including INSEAD and Oxford University. He is now also a
frequent speaker at events on blockchain and cryptoassets.
vii
About the Technical Reviewer
Yamini Sagar is the founder/CEO of Instarails, a company
that provides instant global payment rails. She has over 20
years of experience in tech, blockchain, and payments and
has a track record of building innovative products. Yamini
has worked at renowned companies like Intercontinental
Exchange NYSE, BitPay, and Bakkt. She has been an amateur
investor in cryptos since 2018, and her favorite is Bitcoin.
When she’s not working, Yamini enjoys reading about
emerging technologies and sharing her insights on the
latest trends.
ix
Disclaimer
This book is not a recommendation to buy cryptoassets but rather a structured analysis
of what they are, why they may be appropriate for some investors, and what such
investors ought to consider. In this regard, several disclaimers are necessary.
First, I am not a financial advisor. The contents of this book should be regarded as
educational, not as financial advice.
Second, cryptoassets are subject to high price volatility and more legal uncertainty
than traditional investments. Facing this volatility and uncertainty is not appropriate for
all investors.
Third, the cryptoasset space is evolving very rapidly. Every effort was made to
provide up-to-date sources at the time of publication. However, it may no longer be
the case when you read these lines. I can, therefore, hold no responsibility for outdated
information or decisions (financial or otherwise) made based on the material covered in
this book.
Any investor, in cryptoassets or otherwise, should assess whether a particular
investment fits one’s specific needs. They include risk-return characteristics, liquidity,
time horizon, tax status, and other unique features. Any investment should be
considered as part of the investor’s total portfolio, not as an independent investment.
Furthermore, one is responsible for doing one’s own investment research, especially
in regard to understanding the underlying risks. If you do not have the ability or desire
to perform such an assessment, refer to a financial advisor who could tailor portfolio
recommendations based on your unique needs and characteristics.
xi
Preface
I decided not to invest in cryptoassets—many times. However, recent developments
changed my mind.
On a Saturday evening in the autumn of 2012, I sat with friends for a session of
our newly-formed think tank in Brussels. It was my turn to bring up a mind-provoking
topic. Our group had diverse expertise ranging from engineering to IT and physics.
Leveraging my economics background, that day’s topic was the revolutionary potential
of complementary currencies. Indeed, monetary systems working in parallel to a
traditional single-currency model can benefit local communities in countless ways. At
the time, I was not even aware of Bitcoin’s existence. Still years ahead of cryptoassets
becoming mainstream, alternative currencies were an obscure idea that needed
to emerge.
This visionary concept would change everything. In the same way steam, electricity,
and the Internet triggered the first, second, and third industrial revolutions, reframing
society’s use of currencies could initiate a fourth industrial revolution.
A couple of months later, I heard about Bitcoin for the first time during an economic
conference in Zurich. Yet, despite my unwavering belief in alternative currencies’ potential,
I considered that this new digital currency was not worth its trading price, $70 apiece.
I then specialized in regulatory risk management and eventually became the local
expert on blockchain technology in Germany’s third-largest bank. However, given the
underlying risks, I still argued in April 2016 that $430 per bitcoin was grossly overpriced.
Despite blockchain’s promising future, this nascent technology could not be relied upon
to replace current ways of working in finance or our monetary system. Yet.
Even after completing an MBA in Singapore in 2018, I doubted investing in cryptoassets
was worth the risk. I believed that past returns orders of magnitude above the highest-
performing traditional asset class did not justify the lack of fundamentals. Ultimately,
Bitcoin and other cryptoassets relied exclusively on trust that a peer-to-peer network
would keep working. Too much could go wrong. While Bitcoin was a fascinating use case of
technology as a monetary system, its likelihood of failure was exceptionally high.
xiii
Preface
During 2021’s market bull run, Bitcoin and other cryptoassets made the headlines
again. Thanks to recent developments in the cryptoasset industry, their adoption
skyrocketed. Institutions formerly loudly advocating against cryptocurrencies changed
their mind. Many of these institutions started offering cryptoasset services; some even
invested considerable amounts in such assets.
Another increase in value ensued. By one order of magnitude. For the seventh time
in a decade.
The last few years passed multiple milestones in cryptoasset history. We witnessed
El Salvador become the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and the financial
industry evolved to leverage cryptoassets’ potential. It established cryptoassets as an
asset class. Regulatory uncertainty dropped, likely making cryptoassets the asset class
with the most attractive risk-adjusted expected return.
For a decade, I have been too risk-averse to dare set foot in the crypto arena.
However, still highly risk-conscious, I believe it is now time to step in for most
investors—even risk-averse ones like me.
And I am not the only one who feels this way.
Paper money is going away. And crypto is a far better way to transfer value
than a piece of paper, that’s for sure.
xiv
Preface
PayPal had these goals of creating a new currency. We failed at that, and
we just created a new payment system. I think Bitcoin has succeeded on the
level of a new currency, but the payment system is somewhat lacking.
I think the Internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role
of government. The one thing that’s missing, but that will soon be devel-
oped, is a reliable e-cash, a method whereby on the Internet you can trans-
fer funds from A to B without A knowing B or B knowing A…
This book started as my notes on the optimal crypto investment strategy. It uncovers
the exceptional potential of cryptoassets and their specific risks. Debunk the myths, set
up a meaningful investment portfolio, and get to terms with this volatile new world.
xv
Preface
Feedback
I welcome any feedback and suggestions for possible future editions of the book. Please
feel free to share any thoughts by emailing me at thomas@thomasjeegers.com.
xvi
Introduction
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
—Benjamin Franklin
xvii
Introduction
As this book covers in detail, decentralization makes cryptoassets the base for a
strictly superior monetary model compared to paper-based currencies emitted by
governmental entities or private banks. Indeed, with sufficient adoption, cryptoassets
offer greater value in all three core functions of money: unit of account, store of value,
and medium of exchange.
In addition, the consequences of this disruption reach far beyond the monetary
system. In an increasingly digital society, sharing digital assets needs fair and
transparent rules. It is not only valid for money but also for identity, property titles,
music, and art, among many other use cases. As a result, virtually all industries will
be impacted, directly or indirectly, by cryptoassets and their underlying technology,
blockchain. In particular, Chapter 3 presents multiple ways blockchain technology
revolutionizes the world as a driver for the greater good.
This book primarily covers the potential of cryptoassets as part of the next monetary
system and as a new asset class for investments. In particular, it analyzes cryptoassets
from an economic and financial perspective, following principles of value investing. In
other words, the aim is to identify what this new asset class is worth. The book identifies
and measures fundamental pillars of cryptoassets to help assess their genuine value.
It also balances the picture by highlighting the underlying risks, both financial and
non-financial. Specifically, it is structured following critical questions that any investor,
experienced or new, should ask before investing. Why is this asset class valuable? What
is this asset class made of? When is the right time to invest? Where should one invest?
How should one invest in terms of investment strategy and risk management? And
finally, which valuation methods exist and are appropriate for cryptoassets? This book
does not recommend any particular investment but provides the framework necessary
to make more informed cryptoasset investment decisions. It enables an understanding
of why they have true economic value and hints at how to measure it. It is the starting
point for serious long-term cryptoasset investors rather than the answer for short-term
speculators looking for get-rich-quick schemes.
Besides, outstanding cryptoasset resources already exist. This book does not seek to
replace but rather complement them with a focus on value investing. Covering technical
aspects of cryptoassets and blockchain technology too deeply would divert the focus
from this book’s purpose. All intricacies behind this technology would barely even fit in
a book of their own. Therefore, this book only covers blockchain technology’s high-level
functioning. In particular, it does not cover the following topics.
xviii
Introduction
• Technical analysis (TA). The book focuses on the long term, not
short-term horizons considered in technical analysis. The macro
thesis presented here will likely take several years, possibly decades,
to play out. Short-horizon crypto traders should refer to books on
swing trading (short term) or breakout trading (medium term).
Since Bitcoin is the first cryptoasset and because its market value is roughly half
of all cryptoassets’ value combined, there is a corresponding focus on this particular
asset. Nevertheless, many more cryptoassets followed in Bitcoin’s wake, with purposes
extending much beyond Bitcoin’s original value proposition.
As the author, I feel compelled to highlight that what I do not know about cryptoassets
is much broader than what I do know. In particular, while I have superficial experience
in these fields, I am neither a programmer nor a professional investor with decades of
experience. In addition, the exceptional pace of development of the cryptoasset industry
makes it impossible to closely follow all things happening in the cryptoasset space.
Nevertheless, I believe this book makes a compelling case for cryptoassets, their rightful
place in a balanced investment portfolio, and the risks investors face as of 2023.
Some readers may believe they missed the opportunity. Many teenage
cryptomillionaires made the headlines over the last decade. Some early investors and
innovators even became billionaires through the early gains of the industry. As this
book shows, it is not too late to profit from the innovation, far from it. Actually, it is just
the beginning. If a human life represented the development of cryptoassets, it would
currently be at the toddler stage. It can barely stand on its own feet, but it still has a
lifetime of development ahead. Crises will surely pave its teenage years, but the best is
yet to come.
xix
Introduction
xx
PART I
The history of cryptoassets, like this book, begins with money. In particular, with the
established monetary system. Understanding what makes money and how it has
evolved is essential to understand the value proposition of cryptoassets—Bitcoin in
particular. Therefore, let us start with the basics by going back several millennia to
identify the fundamentals of money. As you will see, they naturally make a case for what
is coming next.
3
© Thomas Jeegers 2023
T. Jeegers, Understanding Crypto Fundamentals, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-9309-6_1
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
money, but some features make for better forms of money. For example, sound money
needs to have value in the eyes of as many potential trade participants as possible to
broaden its usability. Also, it should hold its value through time. For instance, it should
not be perishable, like the eggs in the previous example. Optimally, it should also be
countable and divisible into smaller units to facilitate transactions of little value and
transportable to enable users to carry their wealth. Finally, an optimal form of money
would have all units worth the same and be indistinguishable from one another, a
characteristic known as fungibility.
In the fourth century BCE, Aristotle established the following critical characteristics
as the base for sound money [4]. In particular, money should be
1. a medium of exchange
2. a unit of account
3. a store of value
4. durable
5. portable
6. divisible
7. fungible
Forms of money used by societies over time only partially fulfilled these
characteristics—from seashells to beads, cattle, grain, salt, tobacco, skins, silver, and
even gold.
The founder of the Austrian School of Economics,1 Carl Menger, challenges the
popular thinking that a medium of exchange becomes money by authority, for example
by law dictated by the state [5]. Instead, he considers money as a special case of other
assets (commodities) with a remarkably high degree of “saleability” (Absatzfähigkeit).
A saleable item is readily marketable at any convenient time without incurring a material
1
This school of thoughts is a branch of economics focusing on the results of individual actions in
line with rational decisions following economics incentives. Its early proponents were Austrians,
which gave it its name. Nowadays, it contrasts predominantly to the Keynesian school of
thoughts, which promotes extensive government control in all economic matters.
4
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
decrease in the selling price. In other words, it represents the degree to which a seller can
dispose of the asset at a fair economic price. Menger identifies the following six criteria
affecting an asset’s saleability.2
The criteria summarized by Aristotle on the one hand and by Menger on the other
are critical in understanding why an asset makes a good form of money. By extension,
they are crucial to evaluate the potential for such money to become valuable. These lists
are also helpful in assessing how a change in any criterion affects the asset’s valuation.
For example, improving market development or reducing regulatory limitations on
transactions would increase the asset’s saleability and value.
Rational individuals facing several potential media of exchange will naturally tilt
toward the “better” forms of money, that is, those with greater saleability. Even if one
does not need the asset, the mere knowledge that others may need it is sufficient to
incentivize acquiring it. Indeed, the owner of the better medium of exchange maximizes
his ability to purchase goods in the future. Individuals arriving at the marketplace
with less saleable assets (e.g., rare antique writings) find themselves at a disadvantage
compared to individuals with more saleable assets (e.g., gold coins). The less saleable
asset must first be converted to a more saleable asset before the owner can perform any
further trade.
2
Menger also identifies five criteria conditioning the geographical limits to the saleability of an
asset and seven criteria conditioning its limits through time. Such spatial and temporal criteria
are similarly important in assessing the value of an asset as a medium of exchange, but beyond
the scope of this book. The interested reader should refer to the original text [5].
5
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
It ensued in every society that better forms of money (i.e., with a higher degree of
saleability) tended to be hoarded. At the same time, comparatively inferior forms of
money lost attractiveness. One tends to exchange less saleable for more saleable assets
because doing so is in one’s best interest. Thus, the preceding criteria, not the pressure
of a central authority, enabled specific forms of money in a free economy to become the
most appropriate medium of exchange. These criteria enabled one particular asset to
emerge as the best form of money among all potential candidates.
6
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Storing Value
The concept of saleability introduced by Menger is closely related to that of a store
of value. In particular, his first and third criteria3 are worth investigating further to
understand what makes an actual store of value.
Paraphrasing Menger’s first criterion, there must be a demand for the good. If the
demand for a good is non-existent, it is worthless, regardless of its supply characteristics.
For example, if a mediocre artist paints only five paintings over his lifetime, it does not
automatically make them valuable. There must be interested buyers for the paintings to
have value. In other words, a good store of value has a high demand. With population
growth and increasing prosperity in early societies, the demand for shiny metals was
growing, especially for gold and silver.
Menger’s third criterion of the saleability of an asset relates to relative scarcity,
which is measured by the stock-to-flow ratio.4 The stock of an asset is the total existing
usable quantity of the asset. For example, while unmined gold still exists in difficult-to-
reach areas, its stock is the quantity of available gold usable by individuals. On the other
hand, the asset’s flow is the quantity that can be added to its stock per unit of time—for
example, the number of tons of gold mined in a year.
An asset with a high flow relative to its stock renders the stock of the asset worth little
because the stock can increase significantly with time. For example, if the stock of copper
in an economy at the beginning of a year is 100, and its yearly flow is 50, then the stock
at the end of the year would sum up to 150, assuming no loss, destruction, or corrosion
of the stock. A copper holder cannot expect the asset to remain scarce because a
substantial proportion, compared to the existing quantity, can rapidly increase the stock.
An asset with a high flow compared to its stock quickly loses any scarcity it might have
had. By extension, only assets with a small flow compared to their stock (or high stock-
to-flow ratio) can be potential stores of value because only such assets remain scarce.
3
The number of potential interested buyers and the quantity available of the good in relation to
the total unsupplied quantity that the market wants of it.
4
The book Whither Gold? from Antal Fekete provides a more in-depth discussion of the
relationship between the stock-to-flow ratio and the saleability of an asset [58].
7
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Regarding their stock-to-flow, assets are not equal. Far from it, actually. First, any
perishable product (e.g., apples, eggs, nuts), corrodible asset (e.g., iron, copper), or
other consumable commodities (e.g., zinc, nickel) have a low stock-to-flow because no
stock can accumulate over extended periods. At the same time, the flow represents a
substantial portion of the asset’s stock. Only durable (non-perishable) assets can apply
as potential stores of value. Gold, for example, ranks well as a durable asset because its
chemical stability makes it virtually indestructible.
Second, an actual store of value must be an asset whose flow does not vary much
with the stock’s market price. Economists refer to this characteristic as the price elasticity
of supply. For example, if the market value of copper suddenly increased dramatically,
many individuals would become copper producers to leverage the opportunity. As a
result, the quantity of copper produced would rise accordingly. In other terms, the flow
would increase until the asset is no longer scarce and its price drops to its long-term
economic level. So, copper production (its flow) depends heavily on its market price.
In economic terms, copper is an asset with a high price elasticity of supply. However,
this price-to-supply relationship is almost non-existent for gold. History has shown that
even when the price of gold increased dramatically, its production remained almost
unchanged. In particular, the increase in the global gold stockpile did not exceed 2%
in any year since World War II. In 2006, despite a 36% increase in the market price of
gold, the annual production decreased in both 2006 and 2007.5 In other words, gold’s
supply is not affected much by changes in its market price. Gold has a low price elasticity
of supply.
Growing demand and marginally increasing supply made gold the optimal store
of value throughout the past few millennia. While silver ranks better than other
commodities, it is still second to gold in these characteristics. For this reason, people
typically only used silver as a medium of exchange for transactions of small value.
5
See Chapter 3 of The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous [56].
8
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
9
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
consequence materialized as the Roman Empire sank into hyperinflation. In these two
decades, known as the Crisis of the Third Century, prices increased by nearly 1000% (i.e.,
multiplied by a factor of 10). Troops hired by the emperor would only accept payment in
gold for their services, thereby plainly denying the value of the official currency. Toward
the end of the century, the situation temporarily stabilized after the assassination
of dozens of short-term emperors. However, the process quickly resumed. Under
Diocletian in 301, a pound of gold traded for 50,000 denarii. By the year of his death, in
337, it increased to 20 million denarii, corresponding to 40,000% inflation.6
Figure 1-1. Denarius under Augustus (Source: Classical Numismatic Group, Inc.
http://www.cngcoins.com; Wikimedia, public domain)
6
Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire, J. R. Peden, Mises Daily Articles [66].
10
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
In the next century, on the European continent, small German states repeated
the same mistakes in the Thirty Years War. Under the Holy Roman Empire, only a few
princes had the right to mint coins. The Empire was, in theory, under a bimetallic
standard, with large gold coins of high value and silver coins for smaller denominations.
While coin alteration was punishable by death, enforcing the sentence was difficult.
As a result, this period became known as the clipping and culling times (Kipper- und
Wipperzeit), following the recurrent clipping of coin edges and careful selection of the
best coins. Little remained due to debasement from the original coins made of valuable
metals. Coins progressively lost their valuable content until becoming exclusively
copper. As in previous examples, hyperinflation settled, and an economic crisis followed.
People stopped accepting coins as payment, and the currency became worthless.7
7
Money and trust: lessons from the 1620s for money in the digital age, Schnabel and Shin, Bank for
International Settlements [72].
11
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Figure 1-2. Paper currency note issued by France’s Banque Royale in 1720
(Source: National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Institution;
Wikimedia, public domain)
Using paper currency only resumed in France during the Revolutionary Wars toward
the end of that century. Similar to its predecessor, the new French paper currency (the
assignat) became legal tender. And similar to its predecessor, the currency supplier (the
National Assembly) printed increasing amounts of the new currency. Despite critics
pointing out that this approach risked the same fate as money-printing earlier in the
century, the supply of assignats grew from millions to billions in a few short years. As
expected, the new currency lost all of its value less than a decade after its creation.
Figure 1-3. Assignat of 1792, a short-lived legal tender paper currency in France
(Source: Design: Nicolas-Marie Gatteaux - Lettering: Jean-Baptiste Gérard;
Wikimedia, public domain)
12
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Figure 1-4. Weimar Republic’s banknote of 100 trillion marks in 19249 (Source:
National Numismatic Collection, National Museum of American History;
Wikimedia, public domain)
8
German Hyperinflation 1922/23, Amankwah, Goulding, Krausbeck, Mwenda, and
Schweigert [67].
9
The German word billion counterintuitively means trillion in English, not billion.
13
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
10
The Case Against the Fed, Rothbard [57].
11
Putting it Simply, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston [87].
12
In practice, the money is not kept physically in a vault but on the bank’s financial account at the
central bank.
14
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
That is how banks create money—by the stroke of a pen when someone takes out a
loan. Moreover, interest is due on the total amount lent by the commercial banks. If the
interest rate on loans is 5%, $45 of interest must be repaid yearly, on top of the borrowed
$900. And all of this arises from the original $100 deposited by Alice. The only way to pay
off interest is by getting it abroad or raising more debt. At the scale of the entire economy,
it is mathematically impossible to repay both the debt and the interest on the debt
because money must come from somewhere. Therefore, the current monetary system
relying on fractional reserve banking is a sort of legalized pyramid scheme.
13
America’s Great Depression, Rothbard [70].
15
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
redeemed their paper money for the gold supposed to back it until banks could no
longer deliver it. The US government faced no choice but to sever the peg between its
currency and gold.
Figure 1-5. US one-dollar bill under the gold standard (1928). It still holds the
“will pay to the bearer on demand,” which was removed upon the end of the gold
standard. (Source: Wikimedia, public domain)
14
Blockchain Revolution, Tapscott and Tapscott [29].
16
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
15
When a country devalues its currency, the price of local goods becomes comparatively more
attractive for foreign buyers. Foreigners therefore tend to buy more goods from the country with
the devalued currency, which therefore benefits from increased exports, hence a competitive
trade advantage.
16
In original French, Trente Glorieuses, by the French demographer Fourastié.
17
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
The Latin word fiat translates as “let it be done.” Fiat “money” is therefore considered money
17
only by decree, as it has no intrinsic value beyond its function as a medium of exchange.
18
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Figure 1-6. Value of $100 in 1971 over time until 2022, reflecting US inflation
measured by the Consumer Price Index in the post–Bretton Woods era (Source:
Macrotrends (www.macrotrends.net) and own workings)
This value erosion of currency is not unique to the US dollar; the Japanese yen, Swiss
franc, and pound sterling followed a similar trend as their corresponding central banks
kept printing more of their currency.
While the preceding figures are already unfortunate for savers, whose value of
savings melted over time like ice cream in the sun, the reality is even harsher. It is due
to these figures using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure inflation. The CPI
understates inflation due to its use of the “constant level of satisfaction” concept in its
computation. In particular, the CPI measures the price of a basket of goods defined
by the spending habits of consumers. However, it does not consider the changes in
spending habits as a reaction to inflation.
To illustrate this, assume consumers typically eat sirloin steak once a week before an
inflationary episode in which all prices double. Consumers whose salaries remained flat
must change their spending habits. They replace the weekly sirloin steak with chicken
breast. Chicken breast after the inflationary episode may cost the same as sirloin steak
before this episode. While real inflation would indicate a 100% increase (prices doubled),
the CPI indicates 0% inflation: the basket of goods changed such that it costs the same
before and after the inflationary episode. Indeed, consumers spend the same amount
19
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
before and after, but the quality of the underlying items decreased. In other words, the
metric to compute the CPI is directly influenced by what it measures. Real inflation is,
therefore, much higher than what the CPI suggests.18 It implies that purchasing power
decreased at an even higher rate than depicted above.
Nonetheless, this drop in purchasing power of fiat currencies represented an
opportunity for gold holders. In particular, over the first decade of the post–Bretton
Woods era, the market price of one ounce of gold was multiplied by 16. It grew from
$40 in the summer of 1971 to above $600 before the decade’s end. In other words, the
real value did not vanish; instead, it merely transferred from holders of fiat currencies to
holders of “real” money, gold.
Figure 1-7. The market price of one ounce of gold during and after the Bretton
Woods system, measured in US dollars (Source: Macrotrends (www.macrotrends.
net) and own workings)
18
This bias, referred to as the substitution effect, is partially taken into account in the CPI
computation within the same “item category” (e.g., “steak”) to reflect consumers switching
to cheaper brands. However, CPI computation does not consider consumers changing item
categories, such as moving from steak to chicken or from car to bus tickets.
20
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
19
The Fed reduced its fund rate from 6.50% in late 2000 to 1.00% mid-2003. Similarly, the ECB
progressively decreased its main refinancing rate from 3.75% in late 2000 to 1.00% in mid-2003.
20
Quantitative easing is when central banks buy bonds with newly created currency. It brings
more liquidity (currency) to the financial system and maintains bonds’ interest rates artificially
low (below their “natural” or equilibrium level) so that they are more affordable by the emitter,
typically governments. Governments therefore benefit from artificially cheap financing.
21
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Over the following decade, an unprecedented wave of new regulations flooded the
financial system. Financial and regulatory authorities tried to upgrade a failing system
instead of rethinking it from the ground up. While they strived to improve the legacy
system, a radically new one emerged. Rather than striving to increase trust in a fiat-
based financial system, the new one would make trust no longer necessary. This is when
Bitcoin took off.
21
The central bank buys bonds (extending its asset side) with previously non-existent currency
that is added to a digital account (extending its liability side).
22
FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, most recent available data as of December 31,
2021 [59].
23
Value of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet from August 2007 to January 2022, Statista [68].
22
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Figure 1-8. US stock market (S&P500), real estate (US median home price),
and gold expressed in proportion to the Fed’s balance sheet from January 2009
to January 2023. Standardized: January 1, 2009’s value = 100 (Source: Federal
Reserve (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy), Macrotrends (www.macrotrends.
net) and own workings)
24
The drop in the first half of 2020 corresponds to the increased liquidity brought by the Fed.
23
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Figure 1-8 indicates that stocks, real estate, and gold did not diverge too far from
their starting point. In particular, they all mainly remained between 50% (half as large)
and 200% (twice as large) as their starting point. Also, they tend to revert toward a
mean value. In other words, the change in assets’ real value over time is not drastic. It
is not that stocks, real estate, or gold are in a bubble; the bubble is in the central banks’
balance sheets.
25
Only a few examples were covered to highlight the pattern that emerges every time, regardless
of geography or time, but history provides plenty more examples along the same lines.
26
E.g., Poland in 1919, United States in 1933, Australia in 1959, United Kingdom in 1966.
27
See for example International Economics Theory and Policy (2023), 12th Edition, Krugman,
Obstfeld and Melitz, Chapter 15 [93].
24
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
voters are the general population or a private council. Of course, the “free” stuff is not
free but financed by devaluing existing currency units. Printing is moving value from
people’s savings to newly printed currency notes. This Darwinian argument indicates
that the problem is not any specific government but a structural issue of wrong
incentives. Indeed, for any central authority with this power, the incentive for printing
currency is too strong to resist, be it for providing more welfare or more warfare. An
authority with the power to print currency naturally prints an economically excessive
amount of that currency. This process continues until the economic imbalance causes
a monetary crash and a complete currency meltdown. Only when it returns to an
“unprintable” money standard, such as gold, can the economy recover on a sound
monetary basis and restore the balance.
The silver lining of the monetary crises throughout history has actually been
a golden lining. Investments in gold not only maintained their value through time but
even soared in value during crises. Gold remained the ultimate store of value for long-
term investors because it was a high stock-to-flow asset. No asset has ever come close to
gold in this regard—until recently.
25
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Bitcoin also scores higher than gold for core characteristics of money covered at the
beginning of the chapter. Bitcoin is neither perishable nor corrodible, as its durability
is infinite. It also surpasses gold in portability since it can be conveniently exchanged
with a smartphone. Its level of divisibility is far superior, as one can split a bitcoin into
100 million subunits instantly and at no cost. It is also more fungible than gold, as one
does not need to doubt the quality of coins or bullion. Bitcoin is also gaining traction as a
unit of account (for example, many exchanges express other cryptoassets as a fraction of
Bitcoin) and is already more established as such than gold. Finally, its use as a medium
of exchange is growing worldwide at a tremendous pace. In particular, commerce
increasingly accepts Bitcoin payments, both online and physically, in virtually all
countries. In addition, it has already become the legal tender currency in El Salvador,
and other countries are following suit.
In terms of the saleability of the asset, Bitcoin similarly scores remarkably high
on all criteria, except two of them, for which it is still evolving: (1) the level of market
development and speculation, and (2) the legal and regulatory limitations imposed on
transacting the asset. As Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset, it did not reach its maturity
on these levels yet but is improving quickly. In particular, Chapter 10 presents multiple
metrics testifying to this maturity growth. These developments suggest that Bitcoin could
soon become the most pristine form of money that humanity has ever known, taking
over this title from gold.
As part of its value proposition, Bitcoin would establish a separation of money
and state. Indeed, Bitcoin as a form of money is independent of the state’s interests.
No state can produce it to pursue its own goals at the expense of savers in that form of
money. Adoption of Bitcoin would re-establish discipline in governments that the gold
standard once imposed, thereby enabling people to save the value of their work in non-
dilutable money.
26
Chapter 1 A Brief History of Money
Key Concepts
Money is whichever medium is chosen by individuals to transact. Better media of
exchange gather critical characteristics, among which is the ability to store value over
time. For the best part of the last five millennia, gold fulfilled this function best because
its flow (new quantity of the asset available) remained small compared to its stock
(existing usable quantity of the asset), even when its price soared. The limited supply
combined with growing demand for gold placed it above any other asset as a store of
value. Bitcoin is a new alternative to gold, gathering the crucial characteristics that
made gold successful and improving on characteristics such as portability, divisibility,
durability, and fungibility.
History is populated by episodes of governments drifting away from gold as
currency, then frenzied printing of the new governmental currency (most often to fund
wars or to service debts contracted because of wars). However, each of these episodes
ended brutally, often with nation-destroying consequences. Returning to a gold standard
has always been the only viable way to recover stability and resume prosperity. Money
printing in the past two decades has increased to levels much larger than in previous
crises, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Unfortunately, history
suggests a gloomy ending for this scenario. More pristine forms of money, such as gold
or now Bitcoin, offer a once-in-a-generation opportunity to benefit from the wealth
transfer that the unavoidable upcoming monetary crisis will generate.
Extension Questions
What are the incentives for governments to choose a gold standard vs a fiat standard?
Would a dual standard be desirable, where federal reserves are held partly in gold
and partly in Bitcoin?
Why did citizen continue using fiat currencies in 1971 when their peg to gold was
severed?
27
CHAPTER 2
Complementary
Currencies
All money is a matter of belief.
—Adam Smith
While Bitcoin makes a compelling case against gold as pristine money, Bitcoin is unlikely
to replace gold entirely because of gold’s millennia-long cultural establishment. Instead,
a more likely scenario is that they coexist, like television did not replace the radio entirely
but only took a share of its market. Given recent developments, it will also likely coexist
with national currencies, such as dollars, euros, or yen, as a payment medium. In fact, it
is already increasingly doing so. Such a system will effectively have multiple currencies
(accepted media of payments) running in parallel. While a multiple-currency model
sounds unusual, it is a notion that already exists and whose many benefits have been
praised for decades by monetary visionaries.1 This chapter investigates why it is the case.
1
See in particular Lietaer and Dunne’s Rethinking Money (2013) [8], and Peter Moers’ Community
Currency Systems: A Co-operative Option for the Developing World? (1998) [86]. Bernard Lietaer,
one of the designers of the European Currency System, notably dedicated his career to promoting
the ground-breaking potential of multi-currency economies.
29
© Thomas Jeegers 2023
T. Jeegers, Understanding Crypto Fundamentals, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-9309-6_2
Chapter 2 Complementary Currencies
Structural Imbalances
Today’s financial and monetary system is unstable. Over the last half-century
(1970–2017), the International Monetary Fund identified “151 banking crises, 236
currency crises, and 74 sovereign crises” [6]. It sums up to ten financial disasters
annually or one every five-to-six weeks.
While financial regulators keep producing more pages of regulation for every aspect
of the sector,2 the system’s stability is unaffected, still undergoing similar numbers of
financial disasters year after year. Despite the unprecedented wave of new regulations
following 2008’s Great Recession, most of Southern Europe’s sovereign debts became
seriously questionable: 94% of the Venezuelan population is living in poverty due to
economic crises [7]; the Argentinian Peso, the Turkish Lira and the Lebanese Pound lost
over 95% of their value; and many more countries suffer from economic disasters. While
some of these issues originate outside the financial and monetary systems, these systems
fail to keep the economy afloat in the face of challenges. Even as recently as May 2023,
major US bank failures indicate that the existing (and extensive) regulation is not an
effective back-stop to the current system’s flaws.
The upcoming analysis suggests that problems in our fragile system remain because
the underlying issue is structural: rooted in our fundamental approach to money.
Instead of treating symptoms of economic crises, an effective solution would address the
root cause of these disasters. A structural issue needs a structural solution.
2
The author used to work as a regulatory risk manager in a major commercial bank in the
mid-2010s, where his work included analyzing new financial regulations. At the time, 10 to 30 new
financial regulations (some hundreds of pages long) were published weekly.
30
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
dintorni la marchesa de Antoni. Qui anzi lo si chiama senz’altro: il
Padrone.
— Il Padrone! — ripetè il giovine con un sogghigno amaro,
rivedendo d’innanzi a sè la figura imbelle e servile dell’ingegner
Boris.
— Sicuro. Questa buona gente non ha mai visto e conosciuto che
lui: se ha ricevuto del danaro fu dalle sue mani; se ne ha consegnato
fu nelle sue mani. È naturale che lo si creda il proprietario e lo si
chiami così.
— Naturalissimo, — egli soggiunse per troncare il discorso.
La notizia dell’arrivo inaspettato l’aveva turbato e reso un po’
perplesso. Egli non conosceva le abitudini de’ suoi vicini, e temeva
che queste potessero in qualche modo disturbarlo o distoglierlo dalle
sue occupazioni. Aveva voluto esser solo, libero, sottratto agli strepiti
e agli svaghi: per ciò solamente s’era risolto a lasciare non senza
rimpianti la città e a ritirarsi in campagna. Anzi, nel prendere a fitto
una metà del palazzo di Cerro, l’Imberido s’era particolarmente
informato di coloro che avrebbero abitato l’altra metà, e aveva
saputo che la famiglia dell’ingegnere vi sarebbe venuta molto tardi,
amando di passare i mesi caldi dell’anno su l’alta montagna, in
Engadina o nel Tirolo. «Verremo probabilmente in principio di
settembre, tutt’al più, se la stagione non sarà buona, alla fine
d’agosto,» gli aveva detto l’ingegnere medesimo nell’accomiatarlo.
Or come mai, proprio quest’anno per la prima volta, egli anticipava
così il suo arrivo a Cerro?
Aurelio, ch’era rimasto per alcuni momenti assorto e pensieroso, si
rivolse d’un tratto a donna Marta, con gli occhi accesi da un primo
lampo di curiosità:
— Sono qui soltanto per pochi giorni, non è vero?
— Chè, ti pare? — ella rispose. — Avrebber portata tanta roba per
pochi giorni? Io credo che si fermeranno tutta la stagione.
— Ma no.... Se l’ingegnere, quando lo vidi l’ultima volta a Milano,
m’assicurò che non sarebber venuti fino a settembre....
— Si vede che han cambiato di parere, — concluse donna Marta
con sicurezza; — ed io certo non me ne lamento. Tutt’altro! In questo
paese maledetto, dove m’hai relegata, morivo di tedio e di tristezza:
sempre sola, sempre sola, sempre sola.... Essi mi terranno almeno
un po’ di compagnia. Son persone assai per bene, e, a quanto pare,
simpatiche, espansive, allegre....
Ella seguitò così per molto tempo a parlare dei nuovi arrivati, con
quella sua loquela colorita e asmatica, che incatenava l’attenzione e
insieme faceva pena. — Questa famiglia Boris, a quanto ella
asseriva, si componeva in tutto di tre persone: l’ingegnere, sua
moglie — una bella donna ancora, bruna, elegante sebbene un po’
pingue —, e la loro figliuola di vent’anni o poco più, bruna anch’essa
come la madre e singolarmente graziosa: alla descrizione minuta,
che donna Marta faceva di lei, una imperfettibile figurina da
oleografia. Il suo nome era Flavia, ella l’aveva sentita chiamare
ripetutamente da’ suoi parenti. Insieme con loro i Boris avevano
anche condotta un’altra giovinetta, — una nipote, un’amica di Flavia
o, forse, un’istitutrice? — della quale la vecchia non aveva notato
che il color dei capelli, e diceva ch’era bionda, d’una biondezza
pallida, cinerea, quasi bianca.
— Quando l’ingegnere se ne sarà andato, poiché certo la sua
professione lo richiamerà presto in città, rimarranno le signore; e con
queste, grazie a Dio, si potrà scambiare qualche parola, passare un
po’ di tempo piacevolmente. Tu mi hai trascinata per un capriccio in
quest’eremo, e poi non ti sei più ricordato di me, come proprio non
esistessi. Ti sei segregato nella tua stanza, il cui accesso mi fu
perfino vietato, e chi t’à visto, t’à visto!.... Sai? Se i Boris non
arrivavano, io pensava già di ritornarmene a Milano, e al più
presto!.... anche sola. Da vero non c’è una ragione perchè io vecchia
e malata m’abbia sempre a sacrificare per te che sei giovine e stai
bene. Ho poco da vivere, caro mio; e, quel poco, non lo voglio
sciupare stupidamente in tanta malinconia e tanta noja, per farti
piacere.....
La voce di donna Marta a poco a poco ritornava irosa: l’astio
inguaribile contro il nipote, astio che aveva le radici in un profondo
attaccamento affettivo, spuntava di nuovo nelle sue parole. Tutte le
accuse accumulate su di lui rompevan di nuovo dal suo cuore,
esacerbato dalla malattia e dalle acute esigenze senili alle quali
Aurelio non sapeva spesso corrispondere. «Oh, ella lo capiva bene!
Quell’arrivo inaspettato non gli andava a genio: egli avrebbe preferito
di lasciarla morir di tedio in un deserto piuttosto che sopportare un
piccolo, problematico disturbo! Sicuro; egli non si smentiva mai, mai:
era sempre quello stesso egoista che non si curava di nulla e di
nessuno, tanto meno poi di lei, povera vecchia inferma! Ma dove
aveva dunque il cuore? dove l’aveva?»
Il giovine taceva, e il suo ostinato mutismo stuzzicava la collera
dell’avola. Ella infatti seguitava, affannosamente, alzando viepiù la
voce, rimescolando nel passato le colpe e le mancanze e le
trascuratezze del nipote. E incominciava già a intenerirsi su la
propria sorte sventurata, a spargere anche qualche lacrima per
amaro conforto delle sue diuturne sofferenze.
Aurelio intanto, con gli occhi bassi su la mensa, senz’ascoltare quel
fiotto intempestivo di rimproveri, meditava in preda a un sordo
turbamento su le conseguenze possibili d’una siffatta vicinanza. —
C’eran dunque due giovini donne tra i nuovi arrivati al palazzo? Le
avrebbe egli conosciute? Avrebbe forse dovuto vederle ogni giorno
per casa, conversare con loro, accompagnarle nelle passeggiate,
sacrificare in somma una certa parte del suo tempo prezioso per non
incorrere nella taccia di scortese e d’incivile? Tutto ciò lo
sgomentava, quasi come l’aspettazione d’una probabile avversità. E
non era tanto l’idea (già per lui così grave) del tempo disperso, d’un
ozio obbligatorio, che più l’angustiava: era anzi quella d’un’assidua
domestichezza con la Donna, con questo essere inferiore e
ammaliante ch’egli non conosceva per pratica ma aveva
teoricamente giudicato come il più terribile nemico della personalità,
il dèmone simbolico della Specie che distrugge l’individuo.
Fin da giovinetto egli aveva appreso a valutare la fatale potenza
della Sirena: la prima apparizion femminea su la soglia della sua
anima era stata causa d’una commozione così profondamente
paurosa, ch’egli n’aveva avuto mòzzo il respiro e il cuore squassato.
D’allora in poi l’istinto animale di fuggire, di nascondersi, di sottrarsi
con un mezzo vile a un fascino misterioso, l’aveva sempre tenuto e
dominato, ogni qual volta gli fosse occorso di trovarsi al cospetto
d’una donna giovine e piacente. Questa selvatica timidità — forse
l’effetto d’un temperamento eccessivo, forse piuttosto la resultante di
due correnti psichiche in opposizione — rappresentava certamente
un lato debole, il più debole del suo carattere; ma egli si
compiaceva, in vece, d’interpretarla come una forza, anzi come una
virtù. Con uno di quegli artificii maliziosi, che l’uomo usa a sua intima
giustificazione, Aurelio Imberido si giudicava migliore e superiore
degli altri, perchè (fuggendo la donna) egli sapeva vivere senza di lei
e poteva evitare i guai e gli errori di cui son prodighe le relazioni
amorose.
Facile inganno, poichè realmente non aveva ancor messo alla prova
del fuoco la sua presunta virtù. Ora l’occasione di saggiarla era
venuta, ed egli, ostinato nella sua arte d’illudersi, preparava già un
piano per iscansare abilmente questa occasione. Egli pensava: «Io
non mi farò vedere nelle ore pericolose! rimarrò chiuso
ermeticamente nella mia camera; se sarò costretto a conoscerle,
farò loro intendere dal principio che non si può assolutamente
contare su la mia compagnia, perchè io sono molto occupato e non
debbo essere distratto.» Anche, pensava: «In fine la mia bella libertà
vale un lievissimo sacrificio d’amor proprio: mi chiamino orso, mi
credano scortese e incivile. Che mi fa della loro opinione?
dell’opinione di due femmine!»
— Tu non mi dài ascolto, Aurelio; — proruppe d’un tratto donna
Marta; — tu non ti degni più di sentire nè anche quello che dico!....
Ebbene bada, Aurelio: la mia pazienza ha un limite! Se un’altra volta,
appena suonata la campana, non discendi sùbito, io faccio
immediatamente i miei bauli, e me ne torno sola a Milano!
Queste parole furon proferite a voce alta e squillante, con tragica
solennità, nel silenzio della gran sala piena d’ombre e di mistero.
Strappato per forza alle sue meditazioni, il giovine dovette ascoltarle
tutte quante con attenzione, e su l’inizio anche con una certa
inquieta curiosità. Come però intese il senso della minaccia, un lieve
sorriso involontariamente gli increspò le labbra: quell’inaspettata
ripresa finale del primo argomento di rimprovero parve a lui una
specie di ritornello con cui l’avola volesse chiudere esteticamente la
sua irosa canzone.
Il pranzo era terminato. Aurelio si levò in piedi, e disse con voce
assai carezzevole:
— Via, mamma, un po’ di calma! Tu ti riscaldi senza motivo: lo sai
che ti fa male!
Quindi, tranquillamente, uscì dalla stanza.
Gli parve, rivarcando la soglia, d’udire dietro di sè uno scoppio di
singulti. Rimase un po’ incerto, titubante se dovesse ritornare presso
la nonna, o se in vece fosse meglio lasciarla sola ad acquetarsi.
Preferì quest’ultimo consiglio. A passi rapidi attraversò l’anticamera
buja e il cortile, i cui portici nella semioscurità sembravano avere una
profondità singolare; e uscì dal palazzo sul rialto erboso, dove si
lasciò cader di peso sopra uno dei sedili di granito ch’erano ai canti
della porta incastrati nel muro.
La spiaggia, d’avanti a lui, era quasi deserta: soltanto l’ombra nera di
qualche pescatore spiccava laggiù presso le barche, di tra i fusti dei
salici, sul lucido riflesso dell’acqua. Non una voce, non un passo,
non uno strepito turbavano il vasto silenzio crepuscolare, che il fioco
anelito dell’onda morta scandeva regolarmente con un ritmo lento e
strascicato. Un lezzo fatuo di pesci e d’alghe fracide saliva a
intervalli dal lago, come una respirazione nauseosa, corrompendo il
profumo delle erbe aromatiche ancor calde di sole e il buon odor
cereale della paglia raccolta a fasci d’oro su l’aja comune.
Nel vespero sereno un estremo chiarore profilava tuttora nettamente
le cime dei monti: prima la linea continua e dolcemente ascensionale
del Motterone, poi il gran dorso gibboso dell’Eyenhorn, poi i picchi
arcigni delle Alpi bianche per neve, poi il pizzo di Proman e la brusca
elevazion dentata della Zeda che declinava novamente verso
settentrione fino a nascondersi dietro il ceppo brunastro delle
casupole di Cerro. Su tutto il paesaggio, sul cielo, su la terra, sul
lago si distendeva uno strato di vapore violaceo, come un fitto velo
che ne modificasse e offuscasse le tinte e i rilievi. A traverso quel
velo, la riviera opposta appariva quasi piana, senza promontorii e
senza insenature: la costa di Stresa, la curva del golfo, le isole
Borromee, la punta di Pallanza sembravan tutte su una linea sola,
ininterrotta, ch’era quella chiara dell’acqua, battuta dall’ultima luce
occidentale. Solamente l’acuta gola di Mergozzo, aperta incontro a
Cerro, si vedeva inabissarsi verso le lontananze dell’orizzonte: e il
suo aspetto era nebuloso, fantastico, sinistro, così sommersa nel
vapor violaceo tanto più denso quanto lo spazio cresceva.
Aurelio, il corpo rilassato su la rigida pietra, la testa appoggiata per
inerzia alla muraglia, fu preso da uno strano senso di stanchezza e
di malinconia al cospetto del paesaggio cupo e grandioso. Avveniva
dentro di lui una di quelle rarissime crisi d’abbattimento, che tal volta
piegavano e vincevano la sua forte fibra di lottatore. Durante siffatte
crisi il suo spirito, che le consuete astrazioni avevan
momentaneamente abbandonato, si smarriva in lente fantasie, cui le
sensazioni delle cose esteriori imponevan come una triste tonalità
minore. Alcuni pensieri insoliti in lui, alcune sepolte aspirazioni della
prima adolescenza, alcuni lontani ricordi del padre morto o dell’avola
vigilante con materna sollecitudine su la sua fragilità infantile,
passavano lievemente in quelle fantasie, a similitudine di spettri esili
e confusi, volanti verso una porta misteriosa. Senza potersene
rendere una ragione, egli si lasciava vincere e intenerire dalle
memorie. Egli sentiva nel fondo della sua anima levarsi un grido
spasimoso: egli sentiva arrivare dalle intime energie dell’essere un
impulso irresistibile verso qualche cosa oscura ma supremamente
necessaria alla sua vita. Ogni suo più ardente desiderio, ogni sogno,
ogni ideale pareva s’avviluppasse nel lugubre sudario
dell’indifferenza: la gloria era vana, l’umanità era trista, l’avvenire
incommutabile o non meritevole d’esser commutato. Uno scontento
immane del mondo e di sè stesso, un tragico bisogno di riposo
finivano per impadronirsi di tutte le sue facoltà; ed egli rimaneva
come soffocato nella stretta di tanta desolazione, deplorando le sue
fatiche e le sue ambizioni, anelando inutilmente a un Bene, ch’era la
Morte ma poteva anche esser l’Amore.
La strana crise sentimentale incominciò questa volta dal ricordo della
scena incresciosa con donna Marta e di quello scoppio di singulti
che gli era parso d’udire varcando la soglia della stanza. Da parecchi
giorni egli sopportava senz’alcun commovimento dell’animo le
periodiche esplosioni di mal umore che l’avola sfogava a preferenza
contro di lui: — un po’ per freddezza, un po’ per abitudine, un po’ per
la convinzione ch’esse fossero conseguenza irrimediabile e
inevitabile della lenta degenerazione ond’era esasperata l’indole di
lei. Appena lo sfogo era esausto o appena egli riusciva con un
qualunque mezzo a sottrarsene, Aurelio dimenticava sùbito le parole
amare e non c’era caso che ritornasse sopra queste con la memoria.
Quella sera in vece, come si trovò solo sul rialto del palazzo
d’innanzi al lago silenzioso, i ricordi del pranzo non tardarono a
risorgere nel suo pensiero, più vivi ed eloquenti degli stessi fatti reali.
Allora un’onda impetuosa di tenerezza, di pietà, di simpatia gli gonfiò
il petto, improvvisamente. L’imagine della nonna, della sua seconda
madre, ischeletrita dal morbo, disfatta dalla vecchiaja, dilaniata da
continue angosce, gli si presentò d’avanti agli occhi dell’anima, come
un’allucinazione. — Le stimate del dolore erano omai impresse
indelebilmente sul povero viso, ch’egli aveva veduto tante volte
curvarsi su di lui, con tanta bontà, con sì amoroso struggimento, nei
dì lontani! Certo: ella soffriva veramente durante quegli scoppii di
collera ingiusta contro di lui; ed egli poteva rimanere impassibile e
quasi irridere alle sue sofferenze! La nonna, la sua seconda madre
si logorava di giorno in giorno, consumava in futili querimonie
l’estreme energie, andava piegando a poco a poco verso la fossa;
ed egli non sapeva trovar nulla in sè per renderle meno triste
l’agonia, per infondere un’ultima gioja in quell’anima moribonda!
La sua coscienza morale era profondamente rimorsa da queste idee;
il cuore era lacerato a sangue dalla tetra previsione. Aurelio si
sentiva legato all’avola da un vincolo indissolubile d’affetto; alla
morte di lei si vedeva già solo e perduto nel mondo, come un
viandante affaticato in una steppa senza confine. Un bisogno intenso
d’appoggio, di compagnia, di convivenza familiare palpitava dentro di
lui. Gli passavan nello spirito, in forma di sentimento vago, alcune
afflizioni del tempo trascorso, che parevagli dovessero rinnovarsi
ingigantite nell’avvenire. L’imagine della nonna sorgeva da tutte
quelle memorie, come un simbolo consolatore. La stessa imagine
ondeggiava su quelle aspettazioni, come un vacuo fantasma cui
avrebbe inutilmente invocato nelle ore dolorose.
Egli si domandò costernato: «A che combattere? In che sperare?
Perchè ostinarmi a vivere, quando ugualmente dovrò morire?»
Così la crise d’abbattimento incominciò; così lo scontento immane di
sè stesso e del mondo, il tragico bisogno di riposo s’impadronirono
di tutte le sue facoltà. La testa del giovine piegò lentamente sotto il
peso dei tristi pensieri involontarii; gli sguardi caddero al suolo, e vi
rimasero lungamente fissi, vitrei, acuiti, come penetrandone i misteri.
In tanto su la spiaggia, d’avanti al rialto del palazzo, passarono, di
ritorno dai pascoli, le vacche cornute e corpulente, a una a una, in
lunga schiera, barcollando, gittando a tratti nell’aria i tremuli e sordi
muggiti; passarono le pallide pecore, strette e confuse in gruppo,
mute, quasi invisibili sul fondo grigio della terra; passarono ultimi,
salendo dal greto, i pescatori tardivi, recando su le spalle le pertiche
prolisse, le fiocine dentate, gli staggi dalle reti ancora sgrondanti.
Tutti, animali e uomini, scomparvero successivamente dalla parte del
villaggio, dove li chiamava al riposo lo squillo lento e monotono
dell’Ave Maria; e il vasto spiazzo fino al lago rimase affatto deserto,
inanimato, come assopito nell’ombra, in aspettazione della notte
imminente.
Su l’opposta riviera apparvero man mano le luci: Intra, la prima,
scintillò per vivaci fiammelle, disposte a intervalli regolari lungo la
costa; un gran faro d’oro s’accese su la punta di Pallanza e rischiarò
d’un riflesso ondulato l’acqua cupa; altri lumi dispersi tremolarono
qua e là, a Stresa, a Baveno, su i fianchi selvosi del Motterone,
laggiù, lontanamente, nei malinconici abituri di Feriolo. In alto, quasi
presso la vetta della Zeda, ben profilata ancora sul cielo verdognolo,
un enorme fuoco divampò d’un tratto, s’allargò come un incendio di
foresta; poi rapidamente declinò, si ridusse a un punto rossastro
nell’oscurità, si spense.
Quando gli ultimi tocchi dell’Ave Maria caddero inerti e flosci nel
silenzio crepuscolare, Aurelio, sorpreso dall’apparizione di quei lumi
annunziatori della notte, volle scuotersi dal suo accasciamento e
uscire da quella specie di sogno tormentoso. La crise era sul finire;
uno sforzo mediocre di volontà bastava a dissiparne i molesti residui.
Egli d’un balzo s’alzò in piedi, e rientrò nel palazzo. Attraversò il
cortile vuoto e bujo a testa alta, con quel piglio ardito e imperioso,
che talvolta la vision della folla gli suggeriva; si mise su per la scala
ottenebrata; percorse a passi rapidi il breve tratto di loggia fino alla
porta delle sue stanze; ne schiuse i battenti quasi con violenza;
entrò.
Dal balcone spalancato penetrava l’estremo pallore del giorno morto;
in quel pallore i mobili non avevan più tinte, spiccavan neri e
angolosi, simili a ombre più che a oggetti reali. La brezza, che saliva
dalla prossima valle, faceva stormire dolcemente la pineta nel
giardino, agitava gli apici d’alcune fronde di glicina arrampicate lungo
la ringhiera, irrompeva fin nella stanza, suscitando deboli fruscii nelle
carte sparse su la tavola centrale. Di quando in quando al soffio
alterno le tende paonazze si gonfiavano con un largo moto
d’espansione, come un respiro profondo.
Trovandosi nel luogo prediletto, Aurelio riacquistò totalmente la
serenità e la sicurezza consuete dello spirito. S’arrestò, estasiato dal
subitaneo benessere che tutto lo invase, in mezzo alla stanza. Era
ben quello il rifugio sacro agli studii, il tempio delle superbe
ambizioni e delle speranze immortali. Da quell’umil rifugio egli, come
un’aquila destinata ai trionfi, avrebbe preso il gran volo per il mondo
popoloso, alle battaglie del progresso umano, alla conquista della
gloria. Che cosa omai avrebbe potuto arrestarlo? Quale forza
terrena sarebbe riuscita a opporsi all’impeto del suo ingegno e della
sua volontà? Egli si sentiva giovine, sano, energico, incorrotto anzi
incorruttibile dalle avversità e dalle passioni: egli si sentiva
veramente un Eletto fra i suoi simili.
Allargò le braccia vittoriosamente, le stese ritte sopra il capo
orgoglioso, agitò le mani nell’aria, sorridendo trasfigurato dalla gioja
al suo destino, ch’era scritto in alto, molto in alto nei misteri azzurri
del cielo. «Chi, chi può dunque mutare il destino?» egli disse a voce
spiegata, in atto di sfida.
Un acuto scroscio di risa, d’una insolente gajezza, si levò in quel
punto dal parco silenzioso. Alle risa successe una pausa, un susurro
di voci femminili a pena sensibile; poi le risa ricominciaron da capo,
più forti, più gioconde, irrefrenabili. Aurelio, che aveva già
dimenticato l’arrivo dei vicini annunziatogli dall’avola durante il
pranzo, fu sorpreso da quell’insolito strepito nella calma imperturbata
della campagna. Spinto dalla curiosità, e un poco dal dispetto che
quel riso importuno aveva mosso in lui, s’affacciò al balcone per
osservare chi dunque osava disturbarlo nel suo rifugio.
Sopra una delle scalee marmoree, che adducevano al secondo
spianato pensile del giardino e alla pineta, stavan ritte,
appoggiandosi con una squisita grazia signorile alla balaustrata, due
giovini donne assai eleganti nel chiaro costume estivo. Le loro
persone uscivan tutte intere, ben definite dal candore del marmo:
entrambe, alte ugualmente, apparivano snelle, di forme molto
leggiadre, con gli omeri un po’ sostenuti e la cintola strettissima
sopra i fianchi leggermente arcuati. Una, roseo vestita, era bruna di
capelli, e gli si presentava di fronte, con gli occhi e i denti illuminati
dal riso; l’altra in un attillato abito celeste, volgendogli le spalle,
mostrava una splendida capigliatura bionda, raccolta in un denso
intreccio su l’occipite. E nulla superava la grazia di quel gruppo
fiorente di giovinezza, sul bianco della scalea, nella luce favolosa del
crepuscolo.
Aurelio, in vederle, le riconobbe. Rammentò le descrizioni dell’avola;
rammentò ancora i molesti pensieri e i disegni di prudenza che
l’arrivo imprevisto di quelle fanciulle aveva in lui suscitati. Volle
sùbito ritrarsi, ma una strana compiacenza gli impedì di muoversi: i
suoi sguardi rimasero fermi come incantati dall’estetica apparizione.
Mentr’egli così la contemplava, un turbamento pànico e pur dolce si
veniva man mano impossessando del suo spirito assorto e
maravigliato; assomigliava questo turbamento alla leggera ebrietà
che dà il dolce vino spumante, mettendo tra i sensi e le cose una
specie di velo sentimentale, malinconico o giocondo, continuamente
trepido. Al giovine pareva di sognare. Passavano in fatti dentro di lui,
come in un sogno, impetuosamente, confusamente ricordi di scene o
di letture lontane, nebbiose imagini romantiche, fremiti fuggevoli di
desiderio, di curiosità o di speranza. Tutto ciò nasceva e si svolgeva
per una forza spontanea di fantasia, senza ch’egli potesse averne
coscienza; e le fibre della sua anima tremavan tutte, come fascio di
corde sottili strappate insieme da un plettro.
D’un tratto un nuovo scoppio fragoroso di risa salì dal parco. La
fanciulla bruna con un movimento repentino si volse, si diede a
correre all’impazzata su per la scalea, e, giunta al sommo, s’internò
agile e veloce nella pineta. Un roseo tremolìo illuminò per un attimo
l’ombra nera del bosco.
— Flavia! Flavia! — l’altra chiamò nel silenzio, ferma al suo posto,
attonita di quella fuga improvvisa.
Nessuno rispose. Solamente un’eco lontana ripetè il nome, come un
gemito indistinto.
Allora anche la bionda si mosse, ascese rapida i gradini marmorei, e
scomparve in corsa tra i pini, dietro la compagna.
Il giardino apparve deserto, muto, misterioso, con le sue piante cupe
e i bianchi fantasmi delle statue mutilate, ritte su gli stalli invisibili.
— Flavia! Flavia! — s’udì ancora chiamar da lungi, per l’ultima volta.
Aurelio, che aveva seguíto avido con gli occhi le due fanciulle fino al
limite del bosco, quando più non le vide, fu preso da un desiderio
cieco e selvaggio di scendere al basso precipitosamente,
d’inseguirle, di raggiungerle come prede nel folto, dove già la notte
doveva esser profonda.
II.
L’incontro.