Full Ebook of Advances in Management Business and Technological Systems 1St Edition Irina Samoylenko Online PDF All Chapter
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Advances in
Management,
Business and
Technological
Systems
Road Towards Sustainable Development
Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume 582
Series Editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences,
Warsaw, Poland
Advisory Editors
Fernando Gomide, Department of Computer Engineering and Automation—DCA,
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering—FEEC, University of Campinas—
UNICAMP, São Paulo, Brazil
Okyay Kaynak, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,
Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey
Derong Liu, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University
of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, USA
Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Witold Pedrycz, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of
Alberta, Alberta, Canada
Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Marios M. Polycarpou, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
KIOS Research Center for Intelligent Systems and Networks, University of Cyprus,
Nicosia, Cyprus
Imre J. Rudas, Óbuda University, Budapest, Hungary
Jun Wang, Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong,
Kowloon, Hong Kong
The series “Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems” publishes the latest
developments in Networks and Systems—quickly, informally and with high quality.
Original research reported in proceedings and post-proceedings represents the core
of LNNS.
Volumes published in LNNS embrace all aspects and subfields of, as well as new
challenges in, Networks and Systems.
The series contains proceedings and edited volumes in systems and networks,
spanning the areas of Cyber-Physical Systems, Autonomous Systems, Sensor
Networks, Control Systems, Energy Systems, Automotive Systems, Biological
Systems, Vehicular Networking and Connected Vehicles, Aerospace Systems,
Automation, Manufacturing, Smart Grids, Nonlinear Systems, Power Systems,
Robotics, Social Systems, Economic Systems and other. Of particular value to both
the contributors and the readership are the short publication timeframe and
the world-wide distribution and exposure which enable both a wide and rapid
dissemination of research output.
The series covers the theory, applications, and perspectives on the state of the art
and future developments relevant to systems and networks, decision making, control,
complex processes and related areas, as embedded in the fields of interdisciplinary
and applied sciences, engineering, computer science, physics, economics, social, and
life sciences, as well as the paradigms and methodologies behind them.
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For proposals from Asia please contact Aninda Bose (aninda.bose@springer.com).
Advances in Management,
Business and Technological
Systems
Road Towards Sustainable Development
123
Editor
Irina Samoylenko
Informational Systems Department
Stavropol State Agrarian University
Stavropol, Stavropol Territory, Russia
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
Introduction
The concept of sustainable development has become particularly relevant due to the
aggravation of economic, social and environmental problems. The main goal of
sustainable development at the global level is humanity preservation, which
requires the abandonment of nature-destroying technologies, structural transfor-
mation of the economy and changes in value orientations of public consciousness.
This goal may be achieved by the balanced development of socio-ecological and
economic systems at various levels. The conceptual foundations and instruments of
sustainable development are becoming national and regional in nature.
The regional economy is characterized by the specific uneven socio-economic
development of entities. This aspect is caused by the heterogeneity of production
factors and interregional differences in solving social problems, such as unem-
ployment, different income levels of the population and mechanisms of regional
state support. At the same time, sustainable development of regions aims to
implement measures for achieving economic growth, developing social sphere,
improving the quality of life, enhancing the demographic situation and developing
industrial, social and market infrastructure. In addition, regional sustainable
development focuses on ensuring economic, food and environmental security in
current conditions of digitalization.
The post-industrial transformation of national economy at an innovation stage of
development requires research that is actual for emerging processes in a society in
the format of sustainable development. Modern methodological tools for studying
various aspects of sustainable development are extensive and differentiated. At the
same time, a comprehensive assessment of the achieved level of regional devel-
opment and its systemic socio-ecological and economic balance requires a com-
bined use of various tools and methods for solving multidimensional tasks of
sustainable development. Moreover, a number of methods are based on the use of
statistical analysis to quantify the process of sustainable development, but a sys-
tematic approach to solving problems of sustainable development requires the use
of expert surveys and other intuitive methods of obtaining initial information to
build theoretical constructions and practical conclusions.
v
vi Preface
vii
viii Contents
1 Introduction
Strategic planning of AIC operation in general and its enterprises in particular, in
the context of market relations, is impossible without studying the objective laws
of cyclical dynamics of the corresponding socio-economic and climatic processes.
Periodic economic crises of different depth and duration are the objective reality of
the nature of market relations, including medium-term crises observed at the inter-
vals of about once a decade, long-term—semisecular, so-called “Kondratievskie” and
ultra-long-term—secular or, in other words, “civilizational”.
Along with the specified features of economic processes dynamics, the solution of
the problem of strategic planning at the agricultural enterprises is impossible without
forecasting the features of the corresponding natural and climatic processes, including
the characteristics of the regional hydrological system (risks of drought and/or floods).
All this jointly is one of the most difficult tasks of the modern economy: the cre-
ation of an adequate mathematical tool for predicting the dynamics of socio-economic
and climatic processes and/or systems, aimed besides at the purposes of strategic plan-
ning of AIC sustainable development and prevention and minimization of the negative
consequences of the industry risks.
The efforts to solve this problem have actually led to the scientific paradigm replace-
ment, appearance of new scientific trends, such as methods of nonlinear dynamics [1,
2], fuzzy logic [3], neural networks [4], etc. The classical forecasting models based
on approximation methods, probability theory and mathematical statistics aimed at the
whole class of problems turned out to be inconsistent with the required adequacy level. It
should be noted that it is more typical for natural-climatic and socio-economic processes
and systems.
Along with the well-known concepts of “deterministic/stochastic” system and/or
process, the terms “deterministic chaos”, “nonlinear system”, etc. have been tightly
incorporated in the modern science vocabulary.
The choice of forecasting method should be anticipated by the classification problem
solution making it possible to determine the determinism level of considered system
and/or process: to assess the tendency availability, possible cyclicality (quasi-cyclicality),
periodicity (quasi-periodicity), etc.
In the context of market economy, AIC sustainable development needs the tools
development for the business processes strategic planning based on forecasting of the
key socio-economic and climatic processes and/or systems.
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
February-07
February-14
January-17
February-21
July-20
January-03
July-13
November-15
June-16
July-06
November-08
June-09
January-10
October-18
December-12
April-15
May-19
December-19
September-21
October-04
March-18
August-03
September-07
April-08
August-10
October-11
March-11
May-12
September-14
August-17
March-04
May-05
December-05
Fig. 1. Time series of consumer price indices for the food products of one of the regions of the
Russian Federation—TS DP1 .
constructed (Fig. 2) using Sturges’ formula [8]. The calculation results are shown in the
Table 1.
Obviously, the classical statistical analysis has been reasonably informative for TS
DP1. The tolerated forecast error does not exceed 1%. The forecast based on the math-
ematical expectation is adequate for this type of time series and can be used for the
strategic planning purposes.
1 Source: https://stavstat.gks.ru/folder/29846?print=1.
4 D. A. Tambieva and M. U. Erkenova
80
70
60
Number of values
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Interval number
However, the same approach for cereals productivity, presented in [9] in the territories
of the modern Russian Federation from 1801 to 2008 has demonstrated non-compliance
with the regular distribution law of a random variable (see Fig. 3 and 4). The similar result
was obtained for the natural and climatic time series of average daily air temperature,
water level in the rivers of one of the regions of North-Caucasus Federal District.
25
20
15
10
0
1801
1808
1815
1822
1829
1836
1843
1850
1857
1864
1871
1878
1885
1892
1899
1906
1913
1920
1927
1934
1941
1948
1955
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
Fig. 3. TS of cereals productivity in the territories of the modern Russian Federation from 1801
to 2008.
Forecasting Methods as a Tool for Strategic Planning 5
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Fig. 4. Distribution function of random variable for the TS of cereals productivity in the territories
of the modern Russian Federation from 1801 to 2008.
Fig. 5. The examples of quasi-cycles identified on the basis of R/S-analysis for the observations
No. 52 and No. 107 for the TS of cereals productivity in the territories of the modern Russian
Federation from 1801 to 2008. The memory depth is 7 and 5, respectively.
3 Results
The similar investigations have been implemented for the TS of daily observations of
daily-average air temperature for the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31,
2016 in one of the regions of North-Caucasus Federal District (Fig. 6). The researches
have shown that this TS also does not comply with the regular law of random variable
6 D. A. Tambieva and M. U. Erkenova
distribution and demonstrates the presence of long-term memory (Fig. 7) – the values
of Hurst exponent (H) are within “black noise” [10, 11].
30
25
20
15
10
-5
-10
-15
-20
1.2
0.8
log(R/S); H(t)
0.6 log(r/s)
H
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Fig. 7. Visual representation of R/S-analysis for a time series of seasonal temperature variations
(see Fig. 3). Source (according to the authors’ calculations).
Forecasting Methods as a Tool for Strategic Planning 7
The similar results have been obtained for the time series of the level of the Kuban
River (Fig. 8 and 9) and Teberda River and other hydrological system indicators.
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Fig. 8. Time series of daily observations of the water level in the Kuban River at the gauging station
named after Kosta-Khetagurov from July 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016. Source (compiled by
the authors and based on [13]).
0.9
0.8
0.7
log(R/S); H(t)
0.6
0.5
0.4 log(r/s)
0.3
H
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Fig. 9. Visual representation of R/S-analysis for a time series of the water level in the Kuban
River (see Fig. 8). Source (according to the authors’ calculations).
The classification problem solution at an early stage of data analysis makes it possible
to assess the degree of determinism of considered socio-economic or natural-climatic
process and/or system, to select an adequate predictive model for strategic planning
8 D. A. Tambieva and M. U. Erkenova
As highlighted above, forecasting is one of the key components of the strategic planning
process for development sustainability of the AIC enterprises in the context of market
economy. The Fig. 10 shows the “scheme of a strategic planning process at the AIC
enterprises” [14].
Fig. 10. The scheme of a strategic planning process at the AIC enterprises2 .
Acknowledgements. The reported study was funded by RFBR, project No. 20-37-90102.
References
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2. Shuster, G.: Deterministic Chaos: Introduction. Mir, Moscow, Russia (1988)
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Fuzzy Systems (Transl. from Polish by I.D. Rudinskii). Goriachaialiniia – Telekom, Moscow,
Russia (2004)
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Optimization. NaukaiTekhnika, St. Peterburg, Russia (2003)
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Mathematical Statistics. Vysshaiashkola, Moscow, Russia (1991)
8. Sturges, H.: The choice of a class-interval. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 21, 65–66 (1926)
9. Tambieva, D.A., Erkenova, M.U.: Methods of fractal and phase analysis for evaluating the
cyclic component of one time series of crop productivity. Manag. Econ. Syst.: An Electron.
Sci. J. 12(106), 66–75 (2017)
10. Peters, E.: Chaos and order in the capital markets: a new view of cycles, prices, and market
volatility. In: Gusev, V.I. Transl. from English; Romanova, A.N. (ed.), Mir, Moscow, Russia
(Original work published 1991) (2000)
11. Peters, E.: Fractal Analysis of Financial Markets: Chaos Theory Application in the Investment
and Economics. Internet-trading, Moscow, Russia (2004)
12. https://climate-energy.ru/weather/spravochnik/temp/climate_sprav-temp_3704702290.Php#
anchor0. Accessed: 7 Apr 2021
13. https://allrivers.info/gauge/teberda-teberda. Accessed 07 Apr 2021
14. Ternovykh, K.S., Alekseenko, A.S., Annenko, A.S.: Planning at an enterprise of AIC. In:
Ternovykh, K.S. (ed.), Kolos, Moscow, Russia (2007)
15. Kuzmitskaia, A.A., Ozerova, L.V.: Modern aspects of strategic planning organization in AIC.
Manag. Econ. Syst.: an Electron. Sci. J. 3(63), 13–25 (2014)
16. Beran, J.: Statistics for Long Memory Processes. Chapman and Hall, New York (1994)
Development of a Model for System
Management of the Regional Entrepreneurial
Ecosystem Factors
1 Introduction
starting a business 32 40
building permit procedure 48 26
connection to energy-saving networks 12 7
ownership registration 12 12
obtaining a loan 22 25
monetaries protection 57 72
taxation 53 58
international trade 99 99
contracts execution 18 21
insolvency resolution 55 57
2018 2019
The rating positively notes the reforms carried out in Russia in order to accelerate
the process of electricity obtaining, simplify compliance with the tax requirements and
strengthen the minority investors’ rights protection by tightening corporate transparency
[2].
The global entrepreneurship index, designed to measure qualitatively the
entrepreneurial ecosystem in a national context, evaluates 101 economies in total, com-
prising r 95% of the global gross domestic product. The overall ranking takes into account
12 O. N. Kolomyts et al.
a wide range of factors to create an overall index of “the best countries for entrepreneur-
ship”, which include innovation, competitiveness, infrastructure, labor skills, access to
the capital and openness to business (Table 1).
– stimulates formation of new forms of cooperation for solving economic, social and
other problems;
– increases the level of innovation of small and medium-sized business enterprises;
– provides the opportunities to enter new markets;
– supports effective cooperation and knowledge, professional experience and skills
exchange;
14 O. N. Kolomyts et al.
– allows using the territorial potential to the full extent, which contributes to modern-
ization acceleration of the regional economy.
strategic orientation
innovation focus
constant improvement
healthy competition
у=f(х)
4 Conclusion
The proposed model provides systematically the entrepreneurial environment factors
determining the entrepreneurial ecosystem development by means of “nodal points of
growth” in the corresponding periods of development.
The developed model will help the public authorities in assessing state support effec-
tiveness, analyzing the positive and negative results of state regulation of small and
medium-sized businesses development, and in creating effective forward-looking state
policy.
Acknowledgement. The research was implemented with the financial support of Russian Foun-
dation for Basic Research (RFBR) and Krasnodar territory in the framework of the scientific
project 19-410-230041.
Development of a Model for System Management 17
References
1. Report on the issues of global financial stability. Analytical summary. https://www.imf.
org/ru/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2019/10/01/global-financial-stability-report-october-2019.
Accessed 23 Mar 2020
2. Doing Business-2020: Country rating. https://russian.doingbusiness.org/ru/rankings.
Accessed 25 Mar 2020
3. Global entrepreneurship index rankings: https://thegedi.org/global-entrepreneurship-and-dev
elopment-index/. Accessed 26 Mar 2020
4. Zubarevich, N.V., Safronov, S.G.: Inequality of socio-economic development of Russian
regions and cities in the 2000s: growth or decline? Soc. Sci. Modernity 53(6), 15–26 (2013)
5. Armington, C., Odle, M.: Small business: how Many Jobs? The Brookings Rev. 1(2), 14–17
(1982)
6. Feld, B.: Startup Communities: Building an Entrepreneurial Ecosystem in Your City, 224 p.
Wiley (2012)
7. Isenberg, D.: How to start an entrepreneurial revolution. Harvard Bus. Rev. 41–50 (2010)
8. Jackson, D.J.: What is an Innovation Ecosystem? National Science Foundation, Arlington,
V.A. (2011)
9. Mason, C., Brown, R.: Entrepreneurial Ecosystems and Growth Oriented Entrepreneurship,
38 p. The Hague, Netherlands (2014)
10. Stam, E.: Entrepreneurial ecosystems and regional policy: a sympathetic critique. Eur. Plan.
Stud. 23(9), 1759–1769 (2015)
11. Baidakov, A.N., Grigorian, A.R.: System aspects of innovative business infrastructure
formation. Multi. online Sci. J. Kuban State Agrarian Univ. (124), 1293–1304 (2016)
12. Gladilin, A.V., Popov, M.N., Kolomyts, O.N.: Analysis and Evaluation of the Socio-Economic
Environment for the Regional Investment Projects Implementation: Monograph, 177 p.
Moscow (2013)
13. Velinov, E., Ponomarev, M.: Organizational development of Russian SMEs: current trends.
J. Eastern Eur. Central Asian Res. (JEECAR) 3(2), 10 (2016)
14. Kolomyts, O.N., Ivanova, I.G., Popov, M.N.: Regional economic development based on the
effective functioning of entrepreneurial environment. Azimuth Sci. Res.: Econ. Manage.
8(26), 176–179 (2019)
15. Kolomyts, O.N., Prokhorova, V.V., Ivanova, I.G.: Advantages and prospects of creating
regional high-tech agrarian clusters. Indo Am. J. Pharma. Sci. 6(3), 6881–6885 (2019)
Achieving Sustainable Growth of the Grain
Product Subcomplex Production on the Basis
of the Formation and Development
of the Integrated Structures
Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia
bolohonov@list.ru
Abstract. The article considers the main directions of improving the efficiency
of the Russian and regional grain product market on the basis of the formation of
integrated structures. In order to present the main trends and general directions
of the grain market development, the technique of expert polling of specialists in
the sphere of agriculture of different professional groups on the basis of ratings
and personal opinions of respondents was applied, allowing to determine the main
directions of the grain product market development. The structure of respondents’
answers and the distribution of their preferences among the spheres of activity
were analyzed. Based on the assumption that the efficiency of the grain product
market is influenced by the organization of production and production relations
on a par with the methods of production, the parameters of enterprises, that are
important when uniting into a cluster, were singled out according to their priorities.
The priority directions of the rational use of the land resources are considered,
the recommendations of solving the main problems and imbalances of the plant
growing industry, in particular the containment of the share of sunflower crops
are grouped. The directions of increasing the efficiency of grain product market,
functioning on the basis of the mechanism of integration and concentration of
production, have been proposed, the main directions of agrarian politics, which
allow to achieve the main objective of the regional grain product market function-
ing, namely, providing the population with the products of own production, are
grouped.
1 Introduction
The zoning of agro-industrial production and the internal organization of the agrifood
market for certain types of products leads to the decentralization of the grain product
market. Decentralization of the agrifood market causes the necessity of the conver-
gence of agricultural production, processing enterprises and trade organizations, which
contributes to the development of integration contacts in the agrifood market. The inte-
gration is necessary for the successful development of the grain product market [1]. It
optimizes the supply of the agricultural products, providing the processing industry with
raw materials, and maintains the necessary level of product consumption. Moreover, the
integration processes are currently developing at the global markets as well [7], where
Russia has been involved increasingly in recent years as an exporter of grain products
[14].
In the countries with developed market economies, one of the most promising ways of
economic development and increasing the competitiveness of the state is a cluster policy
[10, 11]. Economists and economic policy planners are increasingly starting to focus
on the topic of local industrial agglomeration and specialization as the most relevant at
the moment. Enterprises in the sector through innovations support business adjustability
and foster endogenous regional development in an expanding global market [2].
The objective of the research is to substantiate the necessity of the development of
the integrated structures in the grain product subcomplex of the agroindustrial complex
of Russia, as well as to determine the most relevant and popular directions of improving
the efficiency of the grain product subcomplex and the grain market, which will ensure
sustainable growth of production by increasing the economic efficiency of production
and sales of grain. The stated goal was reached by determining the main directions
of development of the regional grain product market on the basis of expert opinion of
agricultural specialists and the research of principles of optimization of development
of grain product subcomplex on the basis of formation and development of integrated
structures. The importance of the development of integrated structures is supported
among scientists and practitioners in the sphere of agricultural production, which was
confirmed by the conducted poll.
The study was based on informational analytical materials, the legislation of the Russian
Federation, official statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry
of Agriculture of the Russian Federation and Internet resources.
The article employs both universal and general scientific approaches to the analysis
of the problem under study: dialectics, abstraction, deduction, induction, analysis and
synthesis. Specific methods of the conducted research: analysis and synthesis, economic-
statistical method, method of a comparative analysis and expert assessments.
The economic ties, underlying the formation of clusters can be based on a num-
ber of long-term contracts and operate through vertical-horizontal interactions between
enterprises. Grain product clusters, as geographically concentrated companies and orga-
nizations, may include both processing enterprises and agricultural organizations, or
even companies producing mechanization equipment and chemicals for agricultural
production. Agrarian integration of regions specifies the industry specialization which
is connected with the most optimal climatic conditions for the production of one or the
other type of grain products.
Saratov region and Russia on the whole have a great potential for the development
of the grain product market, but in order to raise its efficiency it is essential to determine
20 I. A. Rodionova et al.
the directions of its development and the list of required measures should be taken by
the regulating bodies and the participants of the market.
To identify the areas of the efficiency of the grain market improvement, we conducted
a poll for the specialists of the agro-industrial complex, which makes it possible to
understand the main trends and overall directions of development.
We formulated a 12-item questionnaire, including two questions about the respon-
dent’s characteristics.
Most of the questions contained fixed answer options, for example question 1 had
options, 5 questions besides the ones listed suggested their answer options, in three
questions one could choose several options, practically all questions with the exception
of four suggested the option “ I find it difficult to answer”.
The poll was conducted among 4 main groups of respondents employed in the agri-
cultural sector (50 people totally): academic staff of the institute, which deals with the
problems of agro-industrial complex, employees (specialists) of agricultural enterprises
from the rural areas, teachers and students of agrarian higher educational establishments.
3 Results
3.1 Grouping the Results of the Poll
The results of the poll were arranged in the form of figures and diagrams with the
grouping of the respondents’ answers.
The results of the survey are presented below. Answers to the first question “Do
you think that the efficiency of the grain product market is insufficient and needs to be
improved?” were as follows: 24% “no”, 67% “yes”, 9% found it difficult to answer.
Answers to the second question were distributed as follows: 27 people consider that
the annual growth of agricultural production is possible by 3–5%, 7 people - by 6–7%,
5 people. - by 8–10%, 6 people - by 11–15%. Only 3 respondents stated that there will
be a decline in production, 2 respondents found it difficult to answer.
The majority of respondents (59%) assume that over the next 3–5 years, grain product
market volume will not change, 26% chose the option “decline” and 16% of respondents
decided that it will increase.
A structure of responses to the question, “What sector of the grain market is a low-
performing and needs improvement?” is presented (Fig. 1). The majority of respondents
consider that it is necessary to improve the efficiency of agricultural production, while
a fifth of the respondents are in favor of increasing the trade service efficiency.
Significant interest lies in the prioritization of enterprise parameters’ types, which are
relevant when merging into a cluster, to which it was proposed to assign the appropriate
meaning (Table 1).
Respondents placed profit increase on the first place, cost minimization on the second,
human resources (managerial and working) and resource intensity on the final places.
In paragraph 3.3 there is an interpretation of the values of these parameters used in the
evaluation of enterprises, pretending to be united into a cluster.
The majority of respondents consider, that at the current moment it is necessary to
remove administrative barriers (53%), about a third of respondents (29%) suggested, that
Achieving Sustainable Growth of the Grain Product Subcomplex Production 21
service 18
realization 11
Fields of activity
processing 16
transportation 10
storing 15
producrion 39
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
answers, %
Fig. 1. Structure of answers to the question: “What area of the grain market is low efficient and
requires improvement?”
it is necessary to increase the state support, 17% chose the reduction of energy tariffs, a
tenth part of respondents are confident, that it is necessary to increase the availability of
loans and leasing, and 5% demanded an increase in the state control.
Then follows the distribution of respondents’ preferences among the areas of activity,
that need to be given the greatest attention in order to improve the efficiency of the grain
market (Fig. 2), where the first place is occupied by the technical re-equipment, and then
comes the marketing activities, seed production and research activities, which indicates
the necessity of focusing on the development of production methods and techniques,
which ensure the efficiency of the grain product market.
The opinion on whether it is necessary to support the production and processing
of grain in small forms of management (Peasant farm, Personal subsidiary farm) was
ambiguous - 45% said that this was necessary, 37% refused to support them, 18% could
not make a decision on this question.
According to the third part of the respondents, it is possible to increase the production
and processing of grain products through the introduction of the new varieties (31%),
implementation of fertilizers (23%), increasing the integration (21%), concentration
(19%), specialization (15%). The results demonstrate that, according to the opinion of
experts, the efficiency of the grain product market is influenced by the organization of
production and manufacturing links on a par with the production methods.
Below there is a structure of answers to the question: “How to improve the marketing
of grain and grain products? (Fig. 3). Almost half of the respondents suggested creating
production clusters, more than a third supported the development of cooperation, a little
less than a fifth considered that it is necessary to develop collective farms.
In summing up the results it is necessary to take into account the 5% statistical
error in the calculations and, consequently, the real indicators, characterizing consumer
preferences may fluctuate within about 5%.
22 I. A. Rodionova et al.
Table 1. The priority of the parameters of the enterprises that are important when combining into
a cluster, people.
3.2 Directions of Increasing the Grain Product Market and Grain Product
Subcomplex Efficiency
Practically all the experts pointed out that the efficiency of the grain product market
functioning is not high enough and demands measures aimed at increasing it. Besides, it
follows from the experts’ opinions, that one should not expect the situation to improve in
a short period of time. The utmost attention should be paid to the reduction of adminis-
trative barriers and the increase of the state support in the sphere of grain production. As
a result, we can identify a number of steps, that need to be taken at the level of enterprises
of the grain product subcomplex in order to improve the efficiency of the grain market:
Achieving Sustainable Growth of the Grain Product Subcomplex Production 23
technical re-equipping
28 personnel training
Interviewed, %
21 marketing activity
17 16
seed production and pedigree
breeding
8 research activity
3
Fig. 2. Distribution of respondents’ preferences among the areas of activity that need to be given
the greatest attention for the improvement of the grain market efficiency
difficult to
answer
3%
develop
consumer
cooperation
create
34%
production
clusters
47%
through
collective
farms
16%
Fig. 3. Structure of answers to the question: “How to improve the marketing of grain and grain
products?”
The implementation of these measures will enable to increase the efficiency of the
grain market, increase the volume of production, decrease the transaction costs, increase
the competitiveness of the grain product subcomplex enterprises and their products, and
increase the level of satisfaction of the needs of consumers of grain and grain products.
24 I. A. Rodionova et al.
- return into agricultural turnover approximately 850 thousand hectares of arable land
withdrawn from circulation and unused (mainly land shares);
- implementation of irrigation and drainage operations, aimed at restoration of irrigated
lands to the level of 1990 and maintaining the technical condition of irrigation systems
at the required level;
- Increasing the productivity of arable, including irrigated lands, through a set of special
measures (agrochemical, meliorative and cultural-technical, including environmental
forest protection, anti-erosion) [13] and improving the structure of sown areas in accor-
dance with the requirements of a rational system of crop rotations, namely, increasing
the area of perennial grasses, especially in irrigated lands, application of productive
high-quality seed material, introduction of intensive technologies;
- Development and transition to science-based farming systems adapted to the local soil
and climatic conditions.
The involvement into the turnover the currently unused land areas, the reconstruc-
tion of the irrigation systems and further expansion of the irrigated land areas, the whole
range of reclamation measures - are an important resource for the growth of agricultural
production. Hydromeliorative, cultural and technical measures are aimed at the restora-
tion and expansion of reclamation lands. Increasing soil fertility will smooth out the
significant variability of crop yields in Russia. Instability of agricultural productivity in
Russia is also observed in international researches [12]. However, this problem is no
longer a purely national one, since grain production in Russia has an impact on the food
security of many countries [3]. Such a scale will not allow to smooth down the negative
factors of yield reduction only at the expense of the risk insurance [8], a more systematic
approach to increasing the stability of crop yields is required.
Grain production remains the main direction of specialization in Russia’s crop pro-
duction. To consolidation of the country’s position on the grain market it is necessary to
continue increasing grain production, especially to increase the stability of gross yields,
so that in the future they would not fall under 130 million tons, taking into account
increasing exports. Increase in the share of produced crops should be due to the expan-
sion of sown areas, their full and efficient use, increasing yields, improving the placement
of the species composition, increasing focus on the cultivation of the more productive
crops, the use of high-quality seeds and plant protection measures against pests and
diseases. In addition, an extra factor contributing to an increase in the export of grain
can be a reduction of domestic consumption by reducing the use of grain for livestock
feed in “pure form”.
Taking into the consideration the growth of grain production, the state of grain
elevator and storage facilities and their location, along with the possible improvement
of the financial situation of the farms, it can be expected that a number of regions may
experience a certain shortage of capacities. It is necessary to provide the reconstruction,
and possibly a new construction to replace outdated capacities in those regions where
the depreciation rate exceeds 70% on the currently existing production areas.
Achieving Sustainable Growth of the Grain Product Subcomplex Production 25
It is also important to increase the areas under leguminous crops, perennial legumi-
nous grasses to solve the protein problem in forage production, as with the purpose of
restoring soil fertility, because leguminous crops are the best predecessors. As an exam-
ple, in the Saratov region over 17% of the cultivated area is occupied by the sunflower.
The size of cultivation of this crop exceeds the possible limits, since in the rotation the
sunflower should be re-sown not earlier than once every 7–8 years. Further expansion of
the areas under it is not reasonable. The reduction to a rational level is required. At the
same time, it is preferable to expand cultivation of the other oil-bearing crops, such as
mustard, soybeans and other oil-bearing crops, the crops of which have been reduced and
even liquidated in some areas due to the lower level of marketability and competitiveness
compared to the sunflower. One of the directions of crop production development should
be the expansion of the variety of cultivated species that are in demanded on the grain
market and possess a middle-income potential. In general, the main ways of improving
the efficiency of the grain product market functioning are presented in the figure below
(Fig. 4).
MAIN TASKS
enterprise-level realization
Fig. 4. The main directions of improving the efficiency of the grain product market
The strategic objective of the agrarian policy, realized in Russia, should be the
creation of the essential conditions, providing the sustained functioning of the agro-
industrial complex, aimed at the financial rehabilitation of the industry and the solution
of its problems. Russia is currently one of the world’ s largest grain producers and
exporters. Foreign trade of agro-industrial complex products has a significant impact on
26 I. A. Rodionova et al.
the manufacturers’ income, and the internal policy of import substitution in the condi-
tions of sanctions directly and implicitly stimulates national production [5]. A significant
part of grain products is already produced on private farms. Such structural and institu-
tional changes imply shifting the focus of agrarian policy towards the stimulating of the
minor forms of farming, as it has gradually happened in the USA. [4]. Nevertheless, in
our opinion, such support should be based not on the criteria of expanding the production
by any price and supporting the inefficient farms [6], but on the stimulation of expanded
reproduction at the leading enterprises.
ensuring of the state support for the agriculture at both the national and regional levels;
formation of regional food funds, seed funds, forage grain fund;
formation and regulation of the functioning of the grain product market.
Its implementation may include the following directions:
development of budget programs for stimulating of the agro-industrial production, food
industry, sale of agro-food products, creation and development of market structures;
creation of a fund to support the agricultural producers;
providing the financing of priority areas of the development of agriculture in accordance
to the target state programs;
development of the procedure of agricultural enterprises’ debt restructuring;
ensuring the formation and development of the grain product market, the realization of
its regulation, the expansion of its capacity attempting the entrance and consolidation in
the foreign market.
Consequently, due to the generalization of the scientific material and data obtained
from the poll of the respondents, the necessity of development of integrated formations
in the grain product subcomplex is substantiated, the directions of the development of the
grain market and the grain product subcomplex are summarized and grouped according
to the degree of priority. Formation and development of integrated structures relocates the
regional economic units into the system of competitive economic interrelations; provides
strengthening of economic space of the territory by the means of innovation-oriented
development in clusters, bringing production as close as possible to the sources of raw
materials and places of consumption of final production, placing agricultural production
evenly across the country, aimed at leveling the socio-economic development of the
regions, strengthening the competitiveness of our country; and promotes the further
development of the grain product subcomplex and its infrastructure.
References
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Engineering and Technology T. 7(4.38), 654 (2018)
Designing a Model of Cryptosecurity
of Information in the System of Countering
the Spread of COVID-19
florinski@yandex.ru
Abstract. Information security of information systems is vital for the protection
of information resources. If coronavirus 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1 enters the
human body, one of the therapeutic treatment tactics is used to restore the immune
system. By analogy with this process, an equivalent of the cryptographic infor-
mation protection model is proposed in this paper. The study of the attack of the
COVID-19 virus and the therapeutic treatment of the human body made it pos-
sible to propose a cryptoprotection model based on the algorithm for combating
the virus in question. The modern studies carried out by scientists from various
countries, but most of all by Russian specialists, devoted to the adaptive immune
response, were of decisive importance for the development of vaccines and prepa-
rations of monoclonal antibodies; on this basis, an algorithm for designing cryp-
tographic protection of information that circulates in the system of transmission
and reception through channels of various physical nature. Taking into account
the equivalent of the therapeutic treatment of COVID-19, it is proposed to filter
the user by biometric, characteristics or human parameters (BCP), (HBP) for the
purpose of high-quality and prompt identification. For the scientific approval of
the presented proposals, a mathematical confirmation based on the interpolation
of the Lagrange polynomial is given.
1 Introduction
Innovation and technological progress only move forward with fair competition, but
not all organizations and individuals are ready to compete fairly. This undermines the
scientific potential and does not allow for accelerated development. The communication
structure is developing rapidly. More than half of the world’s population is connected to
the Global Information Networks, almost the entire population of the world lives in the
coverage areas of telecommunication networks. Digitalization in the innovation sphere,
and relevance [10]. Based on the results of the selection of research methods, an empirical
method was chosen, which made it possible to combine the analyzed materials to obtain
a different result on the formation of an information security algorithm that has novelty
and relevance. The materials of the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection were
analyzed, on the basis of which an algorithmic model of cryptographic protection of
transmitted and received information was proposed. [3, 11, 12].
3 Results
Combination of processes of origin of entry into the body of the ARDS virus, observed
in severe COVID-19, is characterized by shortness of breath and low levels of oxygen
in the blood, and a powerful release of cytokines by the immune system in response to
a viral infection leads to a cytokine storm and symptoms of sepsis, which is the cause
of death in 28% of fatal cases of COVID-19, due to uncontrolled inflammation leading
to multiple organ failure [6]. Such a process is widely represented in Fig. 1.
Fig. 2. Reflection of the results of the algorithm of algebraic operations of cyclic reality COVID-
19
From Fig. 2 and analysis of the algorithm of algebraic operations of the cyclic activity
of COVID-19, we can conclude that the main stage of infection is the binding of the
virus to the host cell through the target receptor on epithelial cells of the respiratory tract,
alveolar epithelial cells, endothelial cells of blood vessels. SARS-CoV infection reduces
the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE2) in lung cells. Because loss of
ACE2 function in the lung is associated with acute lung injury, virus-induced suppression
of ACE2. Medical studies have shown that ACE2 regulates the renin-angiotensin system
(RAS) [7].
32 A. Troshkov et al.
Therefore, a decrease in ACE2 function after infection with the virus may lead to
RAS dysfunction affecting blood pressure and fluid and electrolyte balance, as well as
increasing inflammation and vascular permeability in the airways.
The receptor-binding domain (RBD) interacts with its receptor, human angiotensin
(action structure) converting enzyme (ACE2) SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus-2, is shown in Fig. 3 [1].
In order to save all human organs in general, a therapeutic effect against SARS-CoV
is carried out, namely, the target of therapy is blocking the target human ACE2 receptor
or TMPRSS2 [8] (Fig. 4).
There are compounds targeting these molecules that have been approved by the
international therapeutic community. The most compelling example would be neural
network algorithms that predict that baricitinib, a Janus kinase inhibitor (JAK) approved
for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, can inhibit ACE2-mediated endocytosis [11,
13]. An alternative strategy is to deliver high concentrations of a soluble form of ACE2,
which could potentially reduce viral entry into target cells.
Thus, from a medical point of view, we can conclude:
Fig. 4. The target of therapy is blocking the target host ACE2 receptor or TMPRSS2 (enzyme
inhibitors)
4 Discussion
Based on the target of therapy, it is proposed to show a model of an attack on an
information system (Fig. 5).
Fig. 5. An attack on an information system with the aim of destroying its integrity or destruction
Based on the model of attack on the information system (IS) and information
resources (IR), it is proposed to consider the design model of crypto - security of IS
and IR on the example of an information resource (Fig. 6).
To complement the model presented in Fig. 6, the main causes of unauthorized access
to information and violations of technical information systems are presented, Fig. 7.
34 A. Troshkov et al.
Analyzing the target of therapy - blocking the target ACE2 receptor of the host
or TMPRSS2 and reflecting the results of the algorithm of algebraic operations of the
cyclic reality of COVID-19, we can conclude that it is important to create an anti-
inflammatory “feedback loop” (dysfunctional response), which is interpreted from the
point of view of equivalence as the design of cryptoprotection from introducing the
actions of cryptanalysts not “friendly” users.
If we consider and analyze Fig. 2, then digital encryption is proposed to apply the
protection of information resources, the purpose of which is to close information while
maintaining the main characteristics of signal-code structures (SCS) and having high
resistance to attacks. However, at the first stage, taking into account the equivalent
of therapeutic treatment for COVID-19, it is proposed to filter (user) by biometrics,
characteristics or parameters of users (human) (BCP), (HBP).
The choice of biometric characteristics and parameters, which are carried out
according to the following proposed algorithm (Fig. 8).
Based on the execution of the algorithm (Fig. 8), BCP and HBP are selected according
to the presented method, taking into account the biometric agreement. Next, an analysis
of the attack on the information resource or the transmitted carrier signal (information
carrier) is carried out. The attack, as a rule, is deliberate, which means that the damage
caused can be represented in the following interpretation (Fig. 9).
Designing a Model of Cryptosecurity of Information in the System of Countering 35