Q1 2024 Market in Review Dubai Real Estate 1715673397
Q1 2024 Market in Review Dubai Real Estate 1715673397
Q1 2024 Market in Review Dubai Real Estate 1715673397
COM
Dubai, UAE
Real Estate Research
First Quarter 2024
DUBAI
Q1/‘24
This quarterly report
contains research on
Dubai’s residential, office,
retail, hospitality and
industrial real estate
markets. VALUSTRAT.COM
Table of 04
Contents
Overview
Real Estate Performance and Key Indicators
Macro-Economic Snapshot
Dubai Consumer Price Index
07
Residential Market
VPI - Residential Capital Values
16
Office Market
VPI - Office Capital Values
VPI - Prime Residential Capital Values Office Supply
VPI - Residential Rental Values Office Sales Transactions
Residential Rents Office Asking Rents
Residential Supply
Residential Sales Transactions
Mortgage Transactions
20
Retail Market
Retail Supply
22
Hospitality Market
Hospitality Supply
Retail Performance Hospitality Performance
24
Industrial Market
VPI - Industrial Logistics Capital Values
26
About Us
ValuStrat in the Media
Industrial Investment/Supply VPI Subscription
During the first quarter of 2024 the Dubai real estate market witnessed
significant growth across its residential and commercial sectors, as
indicated by the latest data from the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI).
In the residential segment, the VPI for capital values surged by 6.4%
quarterly and 24.7% annually, reaching 167.5 points, compared to the base
of 100 points in Q1 2021. This growth was driven by a 5.7% quarterly and
20.1% annual increase in apartment valuations, propelled mainly by
Haider Tuaima mid-affordable communities. Villas remained resilient, achieving 211 points
Director & Head of Real with a yearly increase of 29.6%, reaching a 10-year high in prime villa
Estate Research values.
In the industrial market, the VPI for Dubai Industrial capital values reached
135 points, registering a 15% annual and 3.5% quarterly increase in
logistical warehouses. This growth reflects the resilience and adaptability of
Dubai's industrial sector, which continues to attract investment and expand
its footprint.
In conclusion, the latest data from the ValuStrat Price Index highlights the
strength and dynamism of Dubai's real estate market. With steady growth
across residential, office, and industrial sectors, Dubai continues to attract
investors and businesses, positioning itself as a premier destination for real
estate investment in the region.
Warmest regards,
Haider
VPI
167.5
BASE: Q1 2021 = 100
194.2
BASE: Q1 2021 = 100
135.0
BASE: Q1 2021 = 100
Key Indicators
SOURCE: REIDIN, DET, VALUSTRAT
Residential
2.54M
AED
33,263 130,355
TRANSACTIONS (AED / P.A)
Office
2.17M
AED
579
TRANSACTIONS
1,612
(AED / SQ M / P.A)
Hotel
87.1%
YTD FEB 2024
664
(AED) YTD FEB 2024
578
(AED) YTD FEB 2024
6.3% 6.3%
6.1% 6.1% 6.2%
6.0% 6.1% 6.1%
5.4% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1%
5.3%
4.6% 4.9% 4.9%
4.4% 4.3% 4.3%
3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%
3.1%
2.1% 2.3%
1.0%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
2023 2024
GENERAL INDEX (2014=100) HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS
• UAE investments abroad hit USD 2.5 trillion in • The CPI for ‘Housing and Utilities’ expenses
beginning of 2024 grew 6.3% annually
• Dubai’s inflation rate eased slightly to 3.3% in • S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
March, compared to 4.3% in the previous year registered 58.5 in February, an uptick from 56.6
in January, the highest level since May 2019,
indicating a substantial improvement in
operating conditions across the non-oil
economy
34.1%
29.6%
20.1%
-6.0%
-11.6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
The ValuStrat Price Index - Residential Capital Values, grew 6.4% quarterly and 24.7% annually to achieve 167.5
points. This is compared with 100 base points as of Q1 2021.
The VPI reveals that the rate of capital gains in the apartment market seemed to be steadily approaching that of
villas. However, unlike villas, apartment values continue to chase price peaks witnessed during the last decade.
Valuations of apartment units saw continued upward momentum, up 5.7% on a quarterly basis and 20.1% when
compared to the same period last year, as mostly mid-affordable communities drove the VPI to another record
expansion, reaching 139.2 points. Top annual performers were Discovery Gardens (32.6%), The Greens (29.8%),
Palm Jumeirah (29%), The Views (24.8%), Town Square (24.5%), Al Quoz Fourth (24.1%), and Dubai Production City
(23.9%).
The villa market remained strong, with capital values achieving 211 VPI points, increasing by 29.6% YoY with a
slightly slower quarterly growth of 7.2%. In Q1 2024, villa valuations grew 7.7% QoQ. The highest annual performers
were Jumeirah Islands (32.2%), Palm Jumeirah (31.9%), Dubai Hills Estate (30.6%), and Mudon (27.2%).
33.1%
21.6%
DEC
-9.1%
-11.6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Prices of prime properties in Dubai grew 26.7% YoY and 7.3% QoQ setting a new record of 173 points. This is
compared with 100 base points as of Q1 2021.
Highly desired prime villas reached a new 10-year high of 211.8 points with capital gains of 33.1% YoY and
8.5% QoQ.
Luxury apartments continue catching up with villas, as capital gains leaped 21.6% annually and 6.2% when
compared the previous quarter, to reach 149.4 index points, setting new price records for prime apartments.
20.8%
16.4%
6.1%
4.0%
DEC
-17.9%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
• Residential asking rents jumped 11.7% when • Apartment asking rents grew 16.4% YoY and
compared to the same period last year, and 3% 4.4% QoQ, reaching an average of AED 85,800
since the previous quarter
• Residential occupancy in Dubai was estimated
• Villa rentals rose 1.3% quarterly and 6.1% at 87.7% during the first quarter
annually to an average yearly rent of
AED 403,800
‘000 AED per annum and Yearly Change (%) ‘000 AED per annum and Yearly Change (%)
186
499
159
481
119 401
104
82 365
312
70
56
296
48
• Average asking rents per annum for apartments were studios at AED 56,000, 1-bed at AED 82,000, 2-beds
at AED 119,000, and 3-beds were AED 186,000
• Average annual rents for villas stood at 3-beds AED 312,000, 4-beds at AED 401,000 and 5-beds at
AED 499,000
6
27
13 861
34
815 815
782
755
• The estimated number of new build units to enter • Notable apartment completions during the quarter
the market this year stands at 46,558 homes included Pearlz Residence by Danube with 300
apartments, Bingathi Heights with 366 houses and
• Total estimated completions as of the first quarter Dubai Creek Edge with 566 properties
stood at 5,770 apartments and 1,038 villas,
equivalent to 15% of preliminary estimates for the • Notable villa completions included Reem
whole of 2024 Townhouses with 364 units and Amargo in Damac
Hills 2 with 105 villas
18%
44% 14%
7%
6%
5% 6%
• 85,999 apartments and 21,230 villas are currently • Noteworthy villa and townhouse project launches
under construction with promised handovers by during the quarter included Wadi Villas in MBR City
2028, of these projects 18% are located in with 30 units, Woodland Residences with 30
Dubailand and another 14% in Mohammed Bin properties and Amara in Talal Al Ghaf with 116 villas
Rashid City
• Additional launches include Bay Villas on Dubai
• Key off-plan apartment launches included Islands, The Sapphire in Business Bay, Eleve in
Kempinski Marina Residences with 453 units, Avant Downtown Jebel Ali, Damac Lagoon Views, Habtoor
Garde Residences with 172 homes, Barari Twin Grand Residences, Armani Beach Residences, Sky
Towers with 1,338 residences, Rosalia Residences Residences in Expo City
project in Al Furjan with 117 apartments and Bayz10
by Danube with 1,346 properties
1,169
1,120 13,661
12,860
10,702
10,423
8,486
7,167
6,322
4,766
3,438 3,649
2,915 2,703
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
20.3% 63.1%
LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER
• The average ticket size of off-plan homes rose • Off-plan Oqood (contract) registrations grew by
5.3% annually to AED 2.7 million 20.3% YoY and 63.1% QoQ, equivalent to
investments worth AED 55.3 billion
• The citywide average transacted price for off-plan
properties was AED 19,978 per sq m • Top off-plan locations transacted during the quarter
(AED 1,856 per sq ft) included projects located in Jumeirah Village Circle
(12%), Dubai Maritime City (7.5%) and Business Bay
(6.7%)
1,505
1,385 1,351
1,338 1,337
1,274
1,253
1,205
1,198
1,135
1,075 12,001
1,032 11,501
10,985
10,048 10,793
943 9,668
916 916 8,866 8,792
854
824 7,269
7,028
6,989
6,586
5,813
5,165
3,215 4,089
1,544
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
14.5% -4.2%
LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER
• Q1 saw 11,501 ready secondary home transactions, • The citywide average transacted price for ready
up 14.5% YoY but down 4.2% QoQ, equivalent to units during the quarter was AED 16,200 per
investments worth AED 27 billion sq m (AED 1,505 per sq ft) up 12.6% YoY, but
lower by 11.5% QoQ
• The average ticket size of ready-to-move-in
properties was stable annually but grew by 11.1% • The average apartment size transacted in the
quarterly, reaching AED 2.4 million first quarter was 95.9 sq m (1,032 sq ft), the
average villa area was 293.7 sq m (3,161 sq ft)
• 38.4% of all ready home sales were priced less
than AED 1 million, compared with 40.2% last year • Most transacted locations for ready properties
were Jumeirah Village Circle (9.5%), Business
• There were 55 sales of homes worth over AED 30 Bay (8.1%) and Dubai Marina (5.8%)
million, compared to 53 during the same period
last year
80
44 5.33%
70
60
21
50
28
40
24 23
31 22 31
30 20
18
15
13 13
14
20 10
16
14
10 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 13
9
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
SOURCE : REIDIN,
MORTGAGE - READY CASH - READY FEDERAL FUNDS RATE MACROTRENDS,
VALUSTRAT
*ALL READY ASSET CLASSES,
EXCLUDING OFF-PLAN TRANSACTIONS
• In the first quarter of 2024, the Dubai real estate market witnessed 7,487 mortgage transactions across all
asset classes compared to 13,869 cash transactions of ready properties
• The total sales value attributed to mortgage transactions stood at AED 16 billion, with cash transactions
totalling AED 28 billion
• The US Federal Open Market Committee has opted to maintain its federal funds interest rate at the current
target range of 5.25% to 5.5%
32.1%
29.9%
25.2% 25.3%
-5.7%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Valuations of office units in Dubai jumped 29.9% annually and 4.3% quarterly, this marked the 12th consecutive
quarter of growth which reflects continued demand for high quality office space within well connected locations
in the city.
The ValuStrat Price Index covering Dubai’s office capital values reached a record 194.2 points, almost double the
100-point base set in Q1 2021.
The weighted average price for office space was AED 15,952 per sq m (AED 1,482 per sq ft). Continued double
digit annual growth was observed in 5 major central business districts in Dubai: DIFC (38.7%), Jumeirah Lake
Towers (36.1%), Business Bay (33.3%), and Barsha Heights (24.2%). Downtown Dubai witnessed the lowest
annual growth of 7.6% with no quarterly change, hitting a possible price ceiling of AED 38,212 per sq m
(AED 3,550 per sq ft).
Prices of Grade A fitted space in Dubai expanded 29.7% annually to achieve 209 VPI points, more than double
the value three years ago. Grade B fitted offerings grew 22.8% YoY to 169.3 points.
0.28 9.84
9.56 9.56
9.53
9.45
• Based on developer estimates, 284,448 (3.1m • DMCC launched Phase 2 of the Uptown Dubai
sq ft) of GLA is scheduled for completion in project, which is set to add 70,000 sq m
2024 (753,000 sq ft) of Grade A office space to the
commercial offerings within the emirate
1,450
1,243
1,205
1,100
1,077
1,006
919 947 896
839 812
622 669
776 743 734 601 607 579
701 670 556
642 549
529 539
514
496
393 357
271 271
220
73
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
• During the first quarter, office sales fell by 13.5% • The average size of offices sold in Business Bay
QoQ and 3.7% YoY, reaching 579 transactions was 109 sq m (1,175 sq ft) and 120 sq m
(1,290 sq m) in Jumeirah Lake Towers
• The average transacted price stood at
AED 15,608 per sq m (AED 1,450 per sq ft), up • 81,673 sq m (879,121 sq ft) of total GLA (Gross
34.6% annually and 16.7% on a quarterly basis Leasable Area) was sold during the quarter,
amounting to an estimated investment value of
• In terms of sales volume, Business Bay retained more than AED 1.35 billion
its position as the most popular choice for office
sales with a share of approximately 46.8%,
followed by Jumeirah Lake Towers with 33.5% of
transactions this quarter
-3.3%
-4.2%
-5.2%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
• The highest office asking rents in a decade were • For typically sized units between 93 – 186 sq m
recorded this quarter, increasing 66.4% in 2 (1,000 – 2,000 sq ft), the highest office asking
years, 36.2% YoY, with a record quarterly growth rents were observed in Dubai International
of 10.9% to reach a median annual rent of Financial Center (DIFC) at AED 2,885 per sq m
AED 1,612 per sq m (AED 150 per sq ft) (AED 268 per sq ft), Dubai Media City at
AED 1,851 per sq m (AED 172 per sq ft), and
• For smaller office areas of less than 93 sq m Business Bay at AED 1,722 per sq m (AED 160
(1,000 sq ft), average asking rents were the per sq ft)
highest in Business Bay at AED 2,013 per sq m
(AED 187 per sq ft), followed by Dubai Media City • Office occupancy in Dubai was estimated at
at AED 1,862 per sq m (AED 173 per sq ft) and 83.6%
Jumeirah Lake Towers at AED 1,346 per sq m
(AED 125 per sq ft)
139
2,622
46
1,237
554
269
35
• Emaar unveiled Dubai Square in Dubai Creek • Emaar has announced its intentions to expand
Harbour, a premier retail mall spanning a built-up Dubai Mall - further details to follow
area of 750,000 sq m, (8.07 million sq ft)
scheduled for completion in Q1 2027
17
CONVENIENCE
(<3K SQ M)
47
NEIGHBOURHOOD
(3K-10K SQ M)
31
COMMUNITY
(10K-30K SQ M)
23 1
REGIONAL
(30K-90K SQ M)
16 1
SUPER REGIONAL
(> 90K SQ M)
RETAIL COMPLETED RETAIL UNDER CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: DUBAI LAND DEPARTMENT (EJARI), VALUSTRAT
• In 2023, Emaar’s revenue from its mall • MAF witnessed a 17% increase in online sales
operations reached AED 5.8 billion during 2023
• Emaar Properties saw their mall assets achieve • Dubai Mall became the most visited place in the
97% occupancy during 2023 world during 2023 with a record 105 million
visitors
• Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) saw its mall assets
achieve 96% average occupancy during 2023 • E-commerce is expected to generate revenue of
more than USD 6.7 billion in the UAE during
• MAF malls were visited by 230 million people 2024
with footfall increasing by 8.5% YoY
1.5
3.7 153
150 150
146
140
HOTEL AND SERVICED APT ROOMS NEW SUPPLY SOURCE: DET, MEED PROJECTS, VALUSTRAT
• As of February 2024, Dubai had a total • Notable upcoming hotel openings include Vida
of 124,947 hotel rooms and 26,322 hotel Dubai Mall, Mandarin Oriental Wasl Tower, Gran
apartments per the Department of Economy and Melia, Port De La Mer and Rixos Dubai Islands,
Tourism Hotel and Residences
• Notable openings included Hilton Dubai Creek • Arte Museum opened its doors during the first
Hotel & Residences with 180 keys, Biltmore quarter marking Dubai’s first immersive art
Hotel Villas with 20 keys and The Lana with 225 experience
rooms
• There are 14 hotel projects under construction
• Address Dubai Mall and Address Boulevard with 4,983 total keys to be added by 2025
were re-branded to Kempinski Central Avenue
Dubai and Kempinski The Boulevard Dubai
respectively, upon acquisition by Abu Dhabi
National Hotels. Emaar subsequently
re-branded Address Fountain Views in
Downtown Dubai to the Address Dubai Mall
4%
7% 21%
9%
1%
17%
12%
15%
14%
SOURCE: DET
• In 2023, the number of international visitors • Dubai’s top three tourist source markets were
increased by 19.4% YoY, surpassing the Western Europe contributing 21%, countries in
pre-pandemic period by 2.5% South Asia adding 17%, and GCC sharing 15%
• Total international guests stood at 3.67 million as • Dubai International Airport anticipates its yearly
of YTD February 2024, growing 18.4% compared passenger traffic to reach 93.8 million by 2025
to the same period last year
• Average occupancy for holiday homes during
• Hotel occupancy reached 87.1%, rising by the quarter stood at 52.1% as per AirDNA
2.7% YoY
• In 2023, Dubai International Airport outpaced its
• The Average Daily Rate (ADR) was AED 664, up pre-covid annual passenger traffic, handling
9% annually, whilst Revenue per Available Room nearly 87 million passengers. This marked a
(RevPAR) grew by 12.5% YoY to AED 578 31.7% annual growth, surpassing the 86.4
million recorded in 2019, as reported by Dubai
Airports
15.4%
5.1%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
• The ValuStrat Price Index - Dubai Industrial • Al Quoz and Umm Ramool continue to lead with
Capital Values reached 135 points, as compared strong growth despite having limited supply of
to Q1 2021 base at 100 large units. Keys drivers in price rises include
alternative uses of industrial space and limited
• The logistical warehouses VPI recorded 15% built stock or land for new development
annual and 3.5% quarterly capital gains
• Industrial property rents increased between
• The valuation of a typical logistics warehouse as 40% and 60%, particularly in Al Quoz, Umm Al
of Q1 2024 was AED 2,823 per sq m (AED 262 Ramool, Dubai Production City, and Al Qusais
per sq ft)
776
604
549
499
431
428
323 323
301
205
• Dubai South and Aldar Properties entered a joint • In 2023, UAE's industrial sector contributed
venture to develop Grade A assets in Dubai. The approximately AED 197 billion (USD 53.64 billion)
first project will be a build-to-lease facility located to GDP, achieving 30% of the Operation 300bn
in the Dubai South Logistics District, totaling target set in 2021
24,000 sq m (258,334 sq ft) of gross floor area
(GFA) • The investment market is strengthening,
narrowing the gap between office and industrial
• JAFZA and Transworld Group to create an logistics sector
centre spanning over 50,000 sq m (538,195 sq ft)
to cater to the increasing demand for cold and • Supply constraints persist, but an increase is
frozen storage solutions anticipated later in the year. However, demand is
expected to continue to outstrip new supply
• FedEx invested USD 350 million in new state of the
art hub at Dubai World Central Airport in Dubai
South, with a built-up area of 72,500 sq m (780,383
sq ft)
About VPI The ValuStrat Price Index or the VPI, is a valuation-based price index
constructed to represent periodic change in capital values and rental
values experienced by typical residential and commercial properties.
The VPI for Dubai’s residential capital values is updated on a monthly basis.
The VPI for Dubai’s residential rental values is updated on a quarterly basis.
The VPI for Dubai’s office capital values is updated on a quarterly basis.
The VPI for Dubai’s industrial logistics capital values is updated on a
quarterly basis.
Research Methodology
Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document. New
supply data covers 50 defined areas in Dubai including non-freehold areas.
Only completed and under construction projects are included. The new
supply data does not include announced projects, and projects in design
phase. The new supply database does not take into account most private
building projects. Prices are calculated from actual transactions. Rental
data is derived from a carefully cleansed database of listings that don’t
include duplicates, potential errors and outliers.
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