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China’s
Financial
System
Growth
and
Inefficiency
Dominique de Rambures
and Felipe Escobar Duenas
China’s Financial System
Dominique De Rambures • Felipe Escobar Duenas
China’s Financial
System
Growth and Inefficiency
Dominique De Rambures Felipe Escobar Duenas
Master Banque Finance Master Banque Finance
Paris I University Panthéon Sorbonne Paris I University Panthéon Sorbonne
Paris, France Paris, France
1 Introduction 1
v
vi Contents
11 Conclusion 179
Bibliography183
Index187
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms
xi
List of Tables
xiii
1
Introduction
country. Chinese leaders keep stating that the Chinese economy should
be increasingly driven and regulated by market forces. However, a set of
crises over the last few years have led to a questioning of the Plans’ targets
and the development of market mechanisms: in June 2013 a monetary
crisis drove the market rate up to 10% and wrecked the interbank mar-
ket. In June 2015, the foreign exchange crisis burned $1 trillion foreign
exchange reserves within a few months and triggered the devaluation of
the yuan; and in August 2015 a stock crisis entailed a 30% fall in stock
prices and the withdrawal of foreign investors. The crisis factors, still
being operating factors, mean that the market crisis remains unresolved
leading to far-reaching consequences.
The decreasing growth rate and investment rate of return, the repeated
market crises and the high market volatility, cast doubt over the effi-
ciency of the financial system, i.e. the optimum allocation of resources,
the capacity to collect public savings to be allocated to the most profit-
able investments at the lowest cost to the benefit of the whole country.
According to the Austrian economist, Friedrich Hayek (1899–1992), the
market price has two functions: an information function and a regulation
function. The former may be more important than the latter. By produc-
ing biased information and twisted prices, Chinese markets do not fulfil
their basic functions.
However, financial markets like the credit market are tightly linked
to each other. Banks turn deposits into loans. Stock exchanges convert
savings into investments. Stock and credit markets are tightly dependent
on the cash market. Stock and bond markets are tightly dependent on
bank credit. And so on. If markets are not properly connected, if moving
from one asset to another is not quick, easy and costless, the price trans-
mission mechanism does not work. In the event of a market imbalance,
there are no market forces to draw back and flatten price fluctuations.
In China, bank lending is reserved for State companies and large private
groups closely connected to the Party and the government. The private
companies and small companies that provide 80% of jobs and invest-
ments have to turn to the credit black market (the “informal” market).
As long as the implicit State guarantee is taken for granted, as long as the
government is backing loss-making State owned (“zombie”) companies,
as long as the government is bailing out bankrupted banks, trusts and
4 China’s Financial System
Reference
1. Maddison, Angus. 2001. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris:
OECD.
2
China’s Decision Making System
famine of the Great Leap Forward in the 1960s was caused not only
by Mao’s megalomania, but also by the flow of reports channelled from
local officials to the top, each one outbidding the lower one throughout
the upper level. Although 95% of the Chinese population belongs to
the Han ethnic group, the Chinese do not understand each other and
have to rely upon a common language, Mandarin. Local idiosyncrasies
are very strong. Local dialects, regional patrons, family links are alterna-
tive sources of power. A Party official appointed in a remote area has to
cope with local powers and local leaders whom he does not understand.
In any case he expects to be moved to a new appointment within two or
three years. The central government is also limited by the bureaucracy
at both the central and local level. Any company manager must come
to terms with the overwhelming network of 80 million civil servants
and as many party members (even though some are both). Any private
entrepreneur has to rely upon a wide network of “friends” (nanxin) to
set up daily bureaucratic problems. Government offices are overlapping
and often compete with each other. Party-State control is indeed much
“cleverer”, much more flexible than it used to be. Market mechanisms
are more widely understood. Officially the Planning Administration has
been over since 1992, but the powerful NDRC (National Development
and Reform Commission), which took its place, interferes in any eco-
nomic decision. Last but not least, in a totalitarian government, the rule
of law is by definition meaningless. The corpus of law and regulations is
not designed to rule everyone including the State and the Party, but to
protect the Party leadership. Legal interpretation is unpredictable and
differs from one place to next.
In the economic and financial field, the pyramid of power ranges over
three levels: the market is under State control, the State is under the Party
control, and the Party … is self-controlled.
Party Leadership
The single Party operates along the standards of “democratic central-
ism”. The economic tenet is the “socialist market economy”, whatever
it means. Both pairs of terms, “centralism” and “democracy”, “market”
2 China’s Decision Making System
7
and “socialism”, are not compatible with each other in a Western mind,
but they are all consistent “with Chinese characteristics”. In Chinese
traditional thought, nothing exists without its opposite. This is precisely
the interaction of opposite terms that sets things in motion.
Democratic Centralism
CCP is a ruling party that remains, to a certain extent , a revolutionary
party, a very secretive and hierarchical one that does not fit with an open
and decentralized market economy. The work of the CCP is opaque, not
only to average citizens but also to Party members. At each renewal of the
leading team (Party Politburo and State Council) every five years, observ-
ers from all over the world pack into the People Hall located in Tien An
Men square, and scrutinize the icy faces of the seven “elected” members.
They have been selected after an opaque procedure within the top spheres
of the Party, and are all lined up before a huge picture of the Great Wall.
Who is promoted? Who is demoted? Which faction has won the power
struggle? Who lost ground?
The 80 Party members are scattered at every single level of the State
apparatus and social life: State administrations, State owned companies, all
kinds of associations, trade unions, media, churches, non-governmental
organizations … down to the block and building party cell. At each level
of State administration, a party member supervises the local bureaucrat.
Sometimes it is the same person: a province head or town mayor, and the
chairman of a State owned company is often also the local party secre-
tary. The Party structure is vertical and hierarchical, which neither facili-
tates local cooperation between the local Party and State bureaucracy, nor
between local offices of each (Party and State) hierarchy.
It has been a long time since the CCP was the advanced guard of
the working class made up of the poorest peasants and workers. Since
President Jian Ze min’s (1989–2002) theory of “double legitimacy”, the
Party is meant to be a mirror of the whole society. All the business sectors,
all of the 53 ethnic minorities, even the 300 million landless and paperless
migrants, are represented in the Party Congress. According to the Hurun
report (2012) which records the wealthiest people, 360 of the top 1024
8 China’s Financial System
richest people were members of the Party Congress. All of them have a
combined wealth amounting to $221 billion. The average wealth of each
of them was in the range of $1 billion. Most if not all of the heads of the
largest State owned and privately owned companies were members of the
Central Committee: Wang Jian lin, Chairman of Dalian Wanda Group
(owner of American AMC Entertainment and Jurassic Park producer
Legendary studios), Lian Wengen, President of Sany Heavy Industries,
a manufacturer of public work equipment, Zhou Hai jiang, the owner
of a huge textile group, etc. Such membership is not a mere coincidence.
The Sany Group plays a key role in China’s policy called “infrastructures
against raw materials” according to which the commodity producing
countries guarantee China’s long-term access to the sources of raw materi-
als at market prices. Such sources are desperately needed by the Chinese
manufacturing industry. In exchange China takes care of the construction
of infrastructure, mostly to connect the pit to the next railway station
or sea terminal. Sandy Group is deeply involved in Chinese diplomatic
policy, such as the “One belt, one road”, the “New Silk Road” policy
put forward by President Xi Jin ping such as the creation of development
banks such as IIAB (Infrastructure Investment Asian Bank) and NDB
(New Development Bank) of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India,
China, South Africa).
The Party is now run like a business venture. Expertise and faithfulness
are more important than ideology. Every year Party executives’ achieve-
ments are assessed by the powerful Organization Department, after a
scoring system covering the whole range of business records such as job
creation, production and investment growth rates, one child policy, etc.
If the Party is attractive to “the best and the brightest” who expect to
reach top positions, it is much harder to recruit managers to fulfil the
lower levels. Low paid, without the expectation of reaching a higher posi-
tion, village and small town secretaries use to stay long enough to build
up a nanxin (i.e. a network of “friends”), all of those for whom they did
a favour, but short enough to make it profitable once they have resigned
to move to the private sector.
In the past, the CCP leaders were engineers. Now they have an increas-
ing economic and legal education, such as that of the Prime Minister Li
Ke qiang. An ambitious Party member cannot reach the highest levels
2 China’s Decision Making System
9
the Party rule is unchanged. For Party members, he must guarantee the
Party rule; for Chinese citizens, he must guarantee the unwritten cov-
enant that links the Party and the People together—a steady growth of
the standard of living against the one Party rule. The ideology shared by
Party leaders is a mix of economic reform, political statu quo and foreign
nationalism.
1
As opposed to Liu Shao qi, President of the Republic.
2
“Chen” is the chinese word for “zen” which was imported from China by the Japanese warriors.
3
“Party leadership” is the first goal to be mentioned, “efficiency and impartiality” is the last.
12 China’s Financial System
State Management
The government is not designed to define and implement policy but only
to implement the administration’s policy defined by the State Council.
The highest government body, the State Council, chaired by the Prime
Minister, Li Ke qiang, has seven members, each one in charge of a given
department. The ministers are not members of the cabinet; they share
responsibilities when it comes to policy making though and they are the
heads of their respective government administrations. Economic policy
is defined by the five-year Plan approved the year before the appointment
of the new governing team.
In theory the Plan no longer exists, but actually the five-year Plan stills
exists. In 1992 the Planning Office has merely replaces by the NDRC,
a powerful body reporting straight to the State Council. The NDRC is
in charge of designing the Plan and supervising its implementation. The
current Plan is more flexible than the former programme, which was
supposed to be a comprehensive one. It combined a volume programme
(production, investment, export) with a value “Credit” Plan. However,
the NDRC can interfere in any relatively important economic decision
such as macro-economic issues like monetary and investment policy, for-
eign investment, etc. but also in details such as to do with foreign invest-
ment projects, interest rates and foreign exchange rates. Each foreign
direct investment, each Chinese investment project abroad, each merger
and acquisitions of major Chinese companies, etc. are closely scrutinized
by the NDRC. Any increase or decrease in the interest rates is set up by
the State Council in conjunction with the NDRC and implemented by
the central bank.
The category of compulsory planning includes a set of priority indus-
tries, banks and companies. The Plan sets up the objectives, the financing
2 China’s Decision Making System 13
4
Following a corruption scandal (the minister was arrested and convicted of bribery), the Minister
of Railway was replaced by an administration reporting to the State Council.
14 China’s Financial System
overall objectives and financing means, are requested to reach the goals.
Sometimes the overall Plan is split down into economic field, industry
sector or companies. Needless to say, although the Plan is not formally
compulsory, it is a precondition to tap government financing and State
bank credit.
A number of industrial groups, companies, agencies and all kinds
of government institutions, are under government control. As a result,
overlapping and conflicting interests often occur, and in that case the
issue is raised to government level for arbitration. This is the case with
all the institutions involved in the financial area such as the central
bank, supervision agencies, CBRS for the banking industry, CSRC in
the financial markets and CIRC in the insurance industry. In case of
persistent conflicts of interest, the government removes the entity con-
cerned from the relevant ministry and makes it report directly to the
State Council.
Eventually the government may be constrained to form the so
called “leading working groups” specializing in a given area, which
unite all the parties involved under the chairmanship of one the mem-
bers of the State Council. During the 2015 crisis, the government
formed a common “leading group”, including the central bank and
supervisory bodies as well as all the other institutions involved, in
order to sort out the obvious lack of cooperation between the two
institutions. President Xi Jin ping is said to use the “leading groups”
extensively to concentrate power within his hands at the expense of
the Prime Minister who is normally in charge of managing economic
and financial affairs. The secretary position of each “leading group” is
appointed to a Party official close to the Party Secretary. For instance,
the secretary position of the “leading group for economic and finan-
cial issues”, chaired by Xi Jin ping in person, is Liu He, a close associ-
ate of the Party Secretary. As a vice-president of the powerful NDRC
and head of the Research Department of the State Council, Liu is said
to be very influential. He shares the same ideas as the President: he is
a devout reformist as well as a strong supporter of the Party rule and
a staunch nationalist in foreign affairs, a usual combination in the top
spheres of the CCP.
2 China’s Decision Making System 15
Market Regulation
What is the difference between a “capitalist market economy” and a
“socialist market economy”? If the market is a place where offer and
demand meet freely in order to determine an equilibrium price that
balances both bid and offer, if the market price provides valuable infor-
mation to consumers who buy, and to entrepreneurs who invest, then
the Chinese economy is not a “market economy”. As Chen Yun, a vet-
eran and leader of the conservatives during Deng’s reign stated: “The
market is like the bird in the cage”, the “cage” being obviously the Plan.
The European Union’s decision to give the status of “market economy”
to China as well as the IMF’s decision to select the yuan among the
currencies (US$, Euro, yen, sterling) included in the SDR (Special
Drawing Rights) are entirely political without any economic ground.
According to the 2001 WTO (World Trade Organization) treaty of
China’s membership, the USA and the European Union should give
China the status of a “market economy” to lift the last trade barri-
ers, but both of them are reluctant to do so on the grounds that the
“market economy with Chinese characteristics” is far from a standard
market economy.5
Property Right
In China property right is acknowledged by the 1982 Constitution
and in theory protected by law. Most of the State owned companies
are inherited from the times of the planned economy and belong to
the industrial sectors that the government sees as strategic. A num-
ber of huge private groups are big enough to be closely looked after
by the government. These include most of the big privately owned
companies, such as internet companies, that have emerged in the new
(digital) economy or industries that the government sees as less strate-
gic, such as the real estate business, even though they are nonetheless
5
As a result of the Brexit vote, China has lost the UK as a strong supporter of granting China the
status of a market economy by the European Union.
16 China’s Financial System
For one moment we file silently through the hush and calm of the
tropical night, only broken by the cry of some bird, or the tap-tap of
the Sudan woodpecker. But presently we come to a big hole in the
ground, there is a shout of “Attention—Kini bulo!” (to the right), and
from one leader to another the cry Kini bulo! is repeated, and averts
a catastrophe by letting every one know how to avoid the obstacle. A
great galloping now ensues to catch up the leading cart, and this
time the difficult place is passed without accident; but often enough a
wheel slips into the bog, and in spite of all the poor mule’s tugging at
her collar there it sticks. We all have to rush to the rescue, drivers
and coolies literally put their shoulders to the wheel, and with shouts
of encouragement and oaths they finally extricate it. It is out again at
last, and we resume our march.
CROSSING A MARIGOT.
And so we leave the long miles behind us. Every other hour we let
the men and beasts have ten minutes’ rest, until the moment arrives
when we catch sight amongst the trees of the pointed thatched roofs
or the flat terraces of mud huts of the village at which we are to
camp.
OUR TETHERED MULES.
At last the sun sets, the sentinels are chosen and posted for the
night, and we gather once more round our little table for supper,
chatting now about our plans for the future, now about the past,
telling stories which ere long will become so familiar that we could all
repeat them by heart and give them each a number of its own. Then
one after the other we retire to our camp-beds to enjoy such repose
as the horrible mosquitoes, which are so clever in finding the tiniest
holes in the nets, will allow, till the morning réveil is sounded on the
horn, and we begin another day, exactly like its predecessor.
Such was our life for twenty days, with slight variations, such as
the crossing of rivers, the over-turning of carts through the breaking
of axles or shafts, etc.
At Kita, however, a very unusual thing occurred: we were able to
indulge in a bicycle race. Our own bicycle, which we had called
Suzanne, met a rival. After all she was not the first comer to the
French Sudan, for a trader at Kita owned another. The match took
place near the post-office, on a really excellent course, and Suzanne
won, although she was not, like her antagonist, provided with
pneumatic tyres. During the race we were entertained by the playing
of a band of little negroes under the care of the Pères du Saint
Esprit. The boys, who were some of them scarcely as big as their
instruments, gave us several charming selections from their
repertory. Their conductor was Brother Marie Abel, who with his long
beard towered above his troupe, and reminded me of pictures of the
Heavenly Father surrounded by cherubs, only these cherubs had
passed under the blacking brush. You see we were not without
amusements in the Sudan.
DOCTOR TABURET.
Well, one day when the Soninké chief had drunk rather too much
dolo or mead, Ma brought him his food, and having placed before
him the calabash containing the tau (boiled millet or maize), just as
he was raising the first handful to his mouth she sidled up to him as if
about to caress him, and, by an apparently accidental movement,
made him drop it.
“Leave that bit, dear friend,” she said, “it is dirty!” and she flung it
into a corner of the hut. Somangoro, intoxicated with love as well as
with liquor, did not take any notice of what the traitress had done.
Then the cunning Ma, when her husband had left her, picked up the
mouthful of tau, and sent it to her brother. Sundiata could now march
against his rival.
This is what happened. The two armies met at Massala; the
Soninkés were beaten. Somangoro hung his weapons on a tree,
which is still pointed out opposite the entrance to the village, and fled
to Mount Kolikoro, where his rival changed him, his horse, and his
favourite griot into stone.
But although he is petrified the Soninké chief retains his magic
power, and the village is still under his protection. At the foot of the
hill two sacred rocks receive the offerings of the negroes, consisting
of ears of millet, chickens, and calabashes filled with degue (millet
flour boiled and strained).
Somangoro is supposed, or rather was supposed, not to tolerate
neighbours, so that when in 1885 a post-office was for the first time
set up on the plateau of the hill, the chief of the village thought it his
duty to warn the officer in charge that it would certainly fall down.
And so it did, for it had been put up too hurriedly, and collapsed in a
violent storm. In 1889 I, in my turn, tried to build nine earthen huts on
the same spot to accommodate the staff of the Niger flotilla. Pressed
for time, I began by putting up a wooden framework, and the roof
was being put on simultaneously with the adding of the earthen
walls. Of course I had supported the corners of my framework by
pieces of wood, but my mason, finding himself in want of them, did
not hesitate to remove them, and therefore, just what might have
been expected happened—my house went down like a castle of
cards, dragging the roof and the men at work on it with it. Fortunately
no one was hurt. Naturally the influence of Somangoro was
supposed to have been at the bottom of the catastrophe, and I could
not get any natives from the village to work for me on that spot
again. I was very much vexed, but fortunately I suddenly
remembered how a certain General of the first Republic managed to
get the blood of Saint Januarius to liquefy when it rebelled against
performing the miracle expected of it. I presented Somangoro with a
white sheep, and at the same time told the sorcerer who
superintends the rites of the hero’s worship that he had a choice of a
good present or a flogging, according to the answer his master
should make to them through him. Under the circumstances, I
added, Somangoro would surely do the best he could for the welfare
of his faithful servant. The event was as I foresaw. The oracle, when
consulted, declared that full permission was granted me to reside
where I liked. Since then I have been supposed throughout Bambara
to be on excellent terms with Somangoro.
Mount Kolikoro is a harbour of refuge for escaped slaves who
have fled from the injustice and brutality of their masters, and
declare themselves to be the captives of Somangoro. No one dares
to touch them as long as they keep close to the rock, so they have
built huts there and till the ground for food.
Another noteworthy fact with regard to this mountain is, that an
oath taken by it whilst eating degué is inviolable. He who should
perjure himself by a lie after that would be sure to lose his life. When
I was in command there I often turned this belief to account, and got
at the truth in matters far too complicated to be solved by the
ordinary light of human reason.
I must also add that Somangoro is also the enemy of thieves.
When anything has been stolen in the village of Kolikoro, a crier is
heard going through the streets at night, calling upon the dead hero
to cause the death of the culprit if he does not return the fruit of his
larceny. Generally the person robbed recovers his property. I do not
know why, but this easy mode of invoking the power attributed
amongst Catholics in Europe to Saint Anthony of Padua is called
Welle da, which means literally to appeal to the door.
The first days of our stay at Kolikoro were occupied in unpacking
and going over our stores. We landed our two wooden barges from
the old flotilla, brought down by Taburet, to have the necessary
repairs done. Alas! what a disagreeable surprise we had! It was not
mere repairs they needed, but a complete overhauling. During the
previous winter the wood of the outside had rotted, partly from being
badly kept, and more than half the boarding had to be replaced with
new. The only thing to do was to set to work vigorously to remedy
the evil. Fortunately our friend Osterman, who had already rendered
us so many services, was now at Kolikoro superintending the
building of canoes for the re-victualling of the river stations, and he
was ready to help us again in every way. We succeeded in putting
our three little barks in order, but we never made them as watertight
as they were originally, and especially with the Aube the leakage
was a constant source of anxiety to us all through our trip.
At Kolikoro, the year after this ceremony, the girls who have been
operated on give a fête called the Wansofili. In the centre of the
village is a huge baobab tree many centuries old, which is held
sacred by the natives, and is supposed to have the power of making
women prolific. The girls alluded to above gather about this tree in
groups and rub their stomachs against the trunk with a hope of thus
ensuring offspring. The ceremony winds up with a debauch, during
which scenes occur which have perhaps more to do with the
perpetuation of the race of the Bambaras than even the venerated
baobab. One evening when I had gone to witness a Wansofili, I was
obliged to imitate the example of Jacob’s son and to flee from the
daughters of the village, lest my dignity as Commander of the
expedition should be compromised. It was too hot for me to be
wearing a mantle, otherwise I should certainly have left it behind me.
On the occasion of the Buluku a certain Kieka-Sanké came to
give us a tam-tam of his own. Kieka-Sanké, I must explain, is a
member of the Koridjuga tribe, a caste with its own special customs
and its own dancers and singers, I might almost say composers.
Sanké was an old acquaintance of mine, and his mummeries had
often amused me. Moreover, the information he had given me had
often been most useful, for the right bank of the river was then still in
the power of the Toucouleurs, and I had neighbours at Guni, and in
Sanké’s own village, on whom it was necessary to keep a vigilant
watch.
Now Sanké’s profession enabled him to go everywhere and to
see everything without being suspected, so that he was often able to
warn me in good time of what the Toucouleurs were thinking of
doing. But those anxious days are over now, and he came to
Kolikoro on this occasion merely to exercise his art. His greatest
successes have been achieved when he has been disguised as a
woman, for he is wonderfully clever at imitating feminine ways. As he
dances he strikes a calabash full of little flints, and composes songs
on the spot which are full of caustic humour. One of his privileges,
and he values it greatly, is that he can say anything to or of anybody
without giving offence.
During my first stay at Kolikoro, Sanké was particularly fond of
taking off the Mussulman Toucouleurs, and I remember one day
how, à propos of their many prostrations and genuflexions, he said,
“What pleasure can these fellows give to Allah by showing Him their
backs three times a day!” My lady readers must pardon me; the
Bambara language is in certain expressions no more refined than
the Latin.
THE FLEET OF MY EXPEDITION.
This time Sanké, after having as usual given us all the news,
imitated the taking of a village. Wearing huge plumes on his head,
and riding astride on a stick with a horse’s head, which represented
his war steed, and a wooden gun in his hand, he was in his own
person the besieger and the besieged. It was really interesting to see
him imitate, with a skill many comedians might envy, the fierce
gestures of a mounted warrior charging, the crafty bearing of the foot
soldier hidden behind some cover waiting to rush out on the
unsuspecting enemy, the fall of the wounded, the convulsions of the
dying. The performance ended with a song in praise of the French in
general and ourselves in particular. In these impromptu verses
Sanké advised women to lay aside their spinning-wheels, for the
white men would give them money and fine clothes for much less
tiring work. I refrain from quoting more.
On December 12 we embarked our last load, and at half-past two
we started.
On the 17th we anchored opposite Sego, where we were to
receive from the Government stores the greater amount of the
reserve provisions for three months which we had to take with us in
some hundred and fifty cases. Bluzet raised his arms to Heaven in
despair when he saw the huge piles. “We shall never get them into
our hold!” he cried, “unless the axiom that the lesser cannot contain
the greater is not true after all.” He did not, however, realize what
skilful stowage could do. Baudry disappeared at the bottom of the
hold, and nothing more was seen of him that day. And what he did
then as second in command he had to do again and again for a
whole month, unpacking and repacking, hunting about amongst the
confusion of packages and cases for the one containing what was
wanted. I confess I often pitied him from the bottom of my heart, the
more that the temperature beneath the metal roof of our hold was
not one easily borne by a European.
At half-past two in the afternoon Captain Destenaves, at one time
resident at Bandiagara, arrived from Massina, where he had been in
command for more than a year.
Destenaves had led our expedition to Mossi and Dori. From the
latter town, which is situated on the borders of the Tuareg districts,
he had brought much interesting information, and he was also
accompanied by an old man named Abdul Dori, who declared
himself ready to join our expedition.
DIGUI AND THE COOLIES OF THE ‘JULES DAVOUST.’