Centrum Sees 25% UPSIDE in Rossari Biotech Robust HPPC Performance
Centrum Sees 25% UPSIDE in Rossari Biotech Robust HPPC Performance
Centrum Sees 25% UPSIDE in Rossari Biotech Robust HPPC Performance
Institutional Research
India I Chemicals
30 April, 2024
Rossari Biotech (Rossari) reported largely stable operating performance in Q4 with flattish Market Data
EBITDA and marginally lower bottom-line sequentially. YoY performance though remained Bloomberg: ROSSARI IN
robust with Revenues/EBITDA/PAT growth 16.3%/16.5%/17.8%. The company reported 52 week H/L: 904/657
good FY24 performance with YoY Revenues/EBITDA/PAT growth 10.5%/11.5%/21.8%. Market cap: Rs41.4bn
HPPC segment remained the key growth driver with 18.3% jump in FY24 revenues while Shares Outstanding: 55.2mn
TSC/AHN revenues declined 5.2%/14.0%. HPPC performance was robust despite weak Free float: 28.6%
agrochem performance amidst subdued to stable overall pricing environment. Institutional
Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 79,915
business almost doubled YoY in FY24 and management expects further doubling in FY25E. Source: Bloomberg
Management guided FY25E growth in early teens while growth rate to rise from FY26E post
~Rs1.3bn growth capex. We like Rossari due to consumption story driven by growth Changes in the report
visibility through ongoing capex. However, due to muted agrochem demand environment, Rating: BUY, unchanged
we have tweaked our FY25E/FY26E revenue estimates downwards by 1.8%/1.6% with Target price: Rs936, down 1.5% from Rs950
1.8%/1.4% downward revision in EPS. Based on our revised estimates, valuing the stock at FY25E: Rs28.1;down 1.8%
EPS:
26x FY26E EPS of Rs36.0, we maintain BUY rating with a revised TP of Rs936 (earlier Rs950). FY26E: Rs36.0; down 1.4%
Source: Centrum Broking
Robust HPPC drives Q4 performance
Shareholding pattern
During Q4, Rossari reported 16.3% YoY and 1.9% QoQ growth at Rs4.7bn. YoY growth was
Mar-24 Dec-23 Sep-23 Jun-23
driven by HPPC segment while QoQ growth was driven by TSC and AHN segments. Q4 EBITDA
Promoter 68.3 68.3 68.4 68.4
jumped 16.5% YoY while remaining flattish QoQ at Rs636mn and PAT surged 17.8% YoY while
down 0.8% QoQ at Rs341mn. FY24 revenue growth of 10.5% YoY was propelled by HPPC FIIs 4.0 4.1 5.7 6.1
segment revenues growing by 18.3% while TSC/AHN segment revenues declined 5.2%/14.0% DIIs 17.7 18.1 17.7 17.7
YoY. HPPC performance was driven by growth in home and personal care categories along Public/other 9.9 9.5 8.2 7.7
with significant growth in institutional business albeit agrochem remained muted. Source: BSE
Strong FY24 exports growth, further tapping newer geographies across HPPC/TSC segments Centrum estimates vs Actual results
During FY24, Rossari’s exports surged 18.0% YoY at Rs4.5bn constituting 24.5% of the overall YE Mar Actual Centrum Variance
revenues. Furthermore, during FY24, the company has set up a local team in Bangladesh to (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY24 (%)
cater to the textiles market which shall start yielding results from Q2FY25E onwards. Revenue 4,727 4,805 (1.62)
Additionally, the company is tapping Americas, MENA regions to expand its HPPC segment. EBITDA 636 632 0.62
Recently, Rossari has commercialised oilfield chemicals through which it expects to cater to EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 13.2 30bps
the Gulf as well as Indian market. These areas remain key growth drivers for exports growth. Adj. PAT 341 339 0.68
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Capex on track, to aid growth in FY26E
Management remained upbeat on HPPC segment growth in FY25E albeit flattish agrochem
performance. TSC segment too shall start growing with renewed focus on Bangladesh while
margins and WC remain focal points for AHN segment. Rossari’s FY24 WC has stretched to
over 90 days primarily due to higher agrochem inventories and higher WC for institutional
business which has become a new normal now. We remain positive on the consumption
aspect of Rossari’s business. Significant capex in FY25E shall start reflecting in growth from
FY26E onwards along with operating leverage which can entail margin expansion. The stock
is currently trading at 26.7x/20.8x FY25E/FY26E EPS of Rs28.1/ Rs36.0. We continue to
maintain Buy on the stock with a marginally revised TP of Rs936 (earlier Rs950)
+91-022-4215 9645
Adj. EPS (Rs) 6.2 5.3 17.6 6.2 (0.8) 23.7 28.1 36.0 rohit.nagraj@centrum.co.in
EPS growth (%) 21.6 18.8 28.1
PE (x) 31.7 26.7 20.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.8 14.4 11.6
PBV (x) 4.0 3.5 3.0
Kunal Pai
RoE (%) 13.3 13.9 15.5 Research Associate, Chemicals
RoCE (%) 13.5 13.6 15.1 +91-022-4215 9018
kunal.pai@centrum.co.in
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Rossari Biotech 30 April, 2024
Thesis Snapshot
Estimate revision Valuations
FY25E FY25E FY26E FY26E We like Rossari due to consumption story driven by growth visibility.
YE Mar (Rs mn) % chg. % chg.
New Old New Old However, due to muted agrochem demand environment, we have tweaked
Revenue 20,667 21,032 (1.8) 23,794 24,172 (1.6) our FY25E/FY26E revenue estimates by 1.8%/1.6% with 1.8%/1.4%
EBITDA 2,917 2,963 (1.6) 3,485 3,523 (1.1) downward revision in EPS. The stock is currently trading at 26.7x/20.8x
EBITDA margin 14.1 14.1 - 14.6 14.6 - FY25E/FY26E EPS of Rs28.1/ Rs36.0. Based on our revised estimates, valuing
the stock at 26x FY26E EPS of Rs36.0, we maintain BUY rating with a revised
Adj. PAT 1,553 1,577 (1.6) 1,989 2,015 (1.3)
TP of Rs936 (earlier Rs950).
Diluted EPS (Rs) 28.1 28.6 (1.8) 36.0 36.5 (1.4)
Source: Centrum Broking Valuations Rs/share
FY26E EPS 36.0
Rossari Biotech versus NIFTY Mid Cap 100 Target multiple (x) 26.0
1m 6m 1 year Target Price 936
Rossari in equity 10.7 1.4 9.1 CMP 749.3
NIFTY Mid Cap 100 5.8 30.8 60.0 Upside/ (downside) 24.9
Source: Bloomberg, NSE
P/E mean and standard deviation
Key assumptions 90
Y/E Mar FY25E FY26E
Revenue growth (%) 70
12.9 15.1
Gross margins (%) 29.3 29.7
50
EBITDA margins (%) 14.1 14.6
Source: Centrum Broking
30
10
Nov-21
Jun-23
Dec-22
Mar-23
Oct-23
Apr-21
Feb-22
Sep-22
May-22
Apr-24
Aug-21
Jan-24
P/E Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Dec-22
Oct-23
Apr-21
Feb-22
Sep-22
May-22
Apr-24
Aug-21
Mar-23
Jan-24
EV/EBITDA Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Peer comparison
Mkt Cap CAGR (FY23A-26E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE
Company
(Rs bn) Sales EBITDA EPS FY24A FY25E FY26E FY24A FY25E FY26E FY24A FY25E FY26E
Aarti Industries 269.3 10.1 19.8 22.1 70.1 35.6 27.1 29.9 20.1 16.3 7.5 13.4 15.5
Anupam Rasayan 91.2 12.0 13.8 18.6 63.3 41.9 29.6 24.1 19.0 14.5 5.5 7.1 9.4
Atul 176.5 6.9 12.8 9.5 47.7 34.0 26.2 26.2 19.6 15.7 7.6 9.9 11.8
Deepak Nitrite 332.0 11.7 23.4 23.8 42.6 26.4 20.5 28.9 17.6 13.6 17.5 23.5 24.5
Dhanuka Agritech* 63.7 10.2 14.5 10.3 26.9 23.5 20.3 19.3 16.8 14.3 20.5 19.9 19.7
Galaxy Surfactants 92.7 1.5 1.1 (0.4) 31.3 26.8 24.4 18.7 16.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 14.8
Gujarat Fluorochem 395.5 16.2 5.6 1.1 89.9 43.9 29.3 42.5 25.7 18.1 7.7 14.2 18.2
Navin Fluorine 169.7 17.8 16.2 13.1 77.9 42.7 31.2 43.7 27.4 21.1 9.4 15.3 18.0
PI Industries* 552.3 17.5 18.8 16.0 34.1 31.8 28.9 26.5 23.8 20.1 20.6 18.6 17.4
Rossari Biotech 41.3 12.8 16.0 22.8 31.7 26.7 20.8 16.9 14.4 11.6 13.3 13.9 15.5
SRF 778.1 6.2 7.8 5.0 61.8 40.9 31.0 32.0 23.3 18.5 11.6 15.6 17.7
UPL * 380.1 (3.0) (3.6) (4.5) - 25.3 11.7 12.9 7.5 5.7 (3.0) 5.2 10.5
Vinati Organics 170.0 9.3 5.9 3.6 54.6 41.0 33.0 37.7 28.8 23.4 13.1 15.4 16.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking; *(YoY relevant)
AHN – Revenue was expected to be 2x YoY in FY24 however missed target due to
industry suffered from headwinds and company deliberately reduced its exposure to
AHN to avoid payment delays
Business highlights
Q4 performance is primarily attributed to the healthy growth witnessed in HPPC
division, HPPC achieved a robust improvement of 18%
Increased customer base for key products which led to growth during the year
registered a strong performance in export markets by targeting new customers in both
new and existing geographies
A subdued performance from TSC segment due to the industry headwinds and AHN
segment due to seasonal softness
Rossari are optimistic about recovery in these divisions in the coming quarters
Outlook
Particularly focused on areas like specialty surfactants, Phenoxy series, institutional
cleaning, performance chemicals etc.
Plan remains to tap into global markets with existing and new products, spread into
newer geographies, and increase wallet share with existing partners
Emphasis on R&D remains a pivotal aspect of the Company’s growth and innovation
strategy
The Company anticipates reporting sustained profitability in the upcoming quarters,
backed by improving capacity utilization levels
Looking at tapping newer geographies and markets in TSC segment
Achieved substantial success in Institutional Cleaning segment, which is expected to be
an important growth vertical moving forward
Segmental Breakup
Segment Sales (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY (%) Q3FY24 QoQ (%) FY24 FY23 % chg.
HPPC 3,447 2,654 29.9 3,554 (3.0) 13,684 11,569 18.3
TSC 940 985 (4.6) 834 12.7 3,542 3,737 (5.2)
AHN 340 425 (20.0) 250 36.0 1,080 1,257 (14.0)
Total 4,727 4,064 16.3 4,638 1.9 18,306 16,563 10.5
Segment sales (Rs mn) Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
HPPC 3,037 3,165 3,038 2,712 2,654 3,012 3,671 3,554 3,447 29.9 (3.0)
TSC 1,098 939 919 895 985 809 959 834 940 (4.6) 12.7
AHN 255 243 302 286 425 285 205 250 340 (20.0) 36.0
Total 4,389 4,347 4,259 3,893 4,064 4,106 4,835 4,638 4,727 16.3 1.9
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Rossari Biotech
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Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24
Rossari Biotech Ltd
Source: Bloomberg
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Rossari Biotech
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research report
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services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
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