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ELECTRIFICATION
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ELECTRIFICATION
ACCELERATING THE ENERGY
TRANSITION
Edited by
Pami Aalto
Faculty of Management and Business/Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
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Contents
Contributors ix 3. How to accelerate electrification? The

Preface xi leverage of policies
PAMI AALTO, KIRSI KOTILAINEN, BENJAMIN SOVACOOL,
MERT BILGIN, AND KIM TALUS
I 3.1 Introduction 57
3.2 The interests driving policy-makers 59
Framework for transition to 3.3 How policy-makers can catalyze change: Types of
electrification policy instruments 63
3.4 How do policy-makers formulate policies? 67
1. Introduction: electrification and the energy 3.5 From policies to solutions 71
References 72
transition
€
PAMI AALTO, TERESA HAUKKALA, SARAH KILPELAINEN,
AND MATTI KOJO
1.1 Electrification as the “new oil” 3

1.2 Why and how to accelerate electrification? 9 II
1.3 Technological part-solutions 12
1.4 How to engage the wider field of stakeholders? 13 Part-solutions
1.5 Structure of the book 17
References 21 4. How can society accelerate renewable energy
production?
2. Globally and locally applicable technologies
TERESA HAUKKALA, HANNELE HOLTTINEN,
to accelerate electrification JUHA KIVILUOMA, AKIHISA MORI, SIRJA-LEENA PENTTINEN,
€ €
SARAH KILPELAINEN, KIM TALUS, AND PAMI AALTO
C. JOHANNES MUTH, PAMI AALTO, FANNI MYLLARI,
€
TOPI RONKK € AND PIRKKO HARSIA
O,
4.1 Introduction 79
2.1 Introduction 25 4.2 The problem: Constraints on accelerating wind and
2.2 Wind power 26 solar power generation 80
2.3 Solar energy 29 4.3 Policies 86
2.4 Hydropower 33 4.4 Case study: Policies for accelerating renewable energy
2.5 Marine power 36 in the EU 88
2.6 Bioenergy 37 4.5 Case study: Federal and state-level policies in the
2.7 Geothermal energy 44 USA 93
2.8 Small modular nuclear reactors 47 4.6 Case study: The battle against nuclear power in
2.9 Conclusion 48 Japan 95
Appendix 1: Overview of technology features of low carbon 4.7 Conclusion: Policy mixes for different phases of RES
energy sources 49 integration 97
References 50 References 98
v
vi Contents
5. The role of energy storage and backup 7.7 Case study: Emission reduction in the heavy-duty
solutions for management of a system with a transport sector by means of biogas 165
7.8 Conclusions: Policy lessons 167
high amount of variable renewable power
References 170
JUHA KOSKELA, SIRJA-LEENA PENTTINEN, TAIMI VESTERINEN,
HANNELE HOLTTINEN, JUKKA KONTTINEN,
€
PERTTI JARVENTAUSTA, JUHA KIVILUOMA, PAMI AALTO, 8. Electrification and energy efficiency in
AND KIM TALUS buildings: Policy implications and interactions
SIRJA-LEENA PENTTINEN, KARI KALLIOHARJU, JAAKKO SORRI,
5.1 Introduction 105 JUHANI HELJO, AND PIRKKO HARSIA
5.2 Energy storage options and features in flexible
systems 107 8.1 Introduction: What does electrification mean in the
5.3 Battery storage in the USA 109 context of buildings? 175
5.4 Gas engines and heat storages in future power 8.2 The problem: Policies for electrification and energy
systems 112 efficiency 177
5.5 The case of household-level batteries 118 8.3 Case study: The EU’s “energy efficiency first” principle
5.6 Conclusion 121 in the electrification of buildings 178
References 122 8.4 Case study: Implementation of EU legal rules in
Finland 181
6. Toward smarter and more flexible grids 8.5 Interlinkages of energy-efficiency policies with the
€
SAMI REPO, HANNELE HOLTTINEN, TOMAS BJORKQVIST, electrification of buildings 189
KIMMO LUMMI, JUSSI VALTA, LASSE PELTONEN, AND 8.6 Conclusion 193
€
PERTTI JARVENTAUSTA References 194
6.1 Introduction 125

9. From energy consumers to prosumersdhow
6.2 Smart grids in electrical energy system
transformation 127 do policies influence the transition?
6.3 Need for flexibility 129 KIRSI KOTILAINEN, JUSSI VALTA, ULLA A. SAARI, MATTI KOJO,
6.4 Case study: Large-scale industrial loads as flexible AND ILKKA RUOSTETSAARI
resources 132
6.5 Case study: Smart metering 134 9.1 Introduction 197
6.6 Case study: Power-based grid tariffs 136 9.2 What is energy prosumerism? 198
6.7 Case study: Energy communities and microgrids 138 9.3 The problem: How to engage consumers in the energy
6.8 Conclusion and implications 144 system transition? 200
References 145 9.4 Case studies 206
9.5 Conclusions 212
References 213
7. Policies for climate-neutral road transport
MATTI KOJO, KALLE ARO, KIRSI KOTILAINEN, 10. Anticipating future trends in energy
€ AKK
AKIHISA MORI, ANNA PA € ONEN,
€ ANTTI RAUTIAINEN,
JUSSI VALTA, PAMI AALTO, JUKKA KONTTINEN, AND
transition: Multilevel dynamics in energy policy
BENJAMIN SOVACOOL agenda-setting
JARI KAIVO-OJA, JARMO VEHMAS, AND JYRKI LUUKKANEN
7.1 Introduction 149
7.2 What do we know? 150 10.1 Introduction 217
7.3 The problem: Constraints on electrification in road 10.2 The problem: Path dependency in a large technical
transport 153 system 218
7.4 Policies 155 10.3 Trend pyramid framework combined with the
7.5 Case study: Policies for accelerating the EV sector in multilevel perspective 220
the Nordic countries 157 10.4 The national level: Discursive struggles on energy
7.6 Case study: EV policies in China and Japan 161 policy in Finland 221
Contents vii
10.5 From national to global level: Big data References 270
analyses 225 Further reading 270
10.6 From micro-level niches to global level: Scientific
debates 240 12. Analyzing electrification scenarios for the
10.7 Conclusions 240 northern European energy system
References 242
ESA PURSIHEIMO AND JUHA KIVILUOMA
III 12.1 Introduction 271

12.2 Scenarios for 2030 273
Combining part-solutions 12.3 A scenario for 2050 277
12.4 Results: the scenario for 2030 278
11. How to combine various solutions in a 12.5 Results: the 2050 case 283
national context? 12.6 Conclusions 286
References 288
€
TOMAS BJORKQVIST, € MAJANNE, AND MATTI VILKKO
YRJO
11.1 Introduction 247 13. Toward a roadmap for electrification

11.2 Case study: The Finnish power system 248 PAMI AALTO, MATTI KOJO, AND AKIHISA MORI
11.3 Scenarios for future electric power system
development in Finland 254 13.1 Introduction 289
11.4 Analysis of scenarios for future electric power system 13.2 Electrification and phases of transition 292
development in Finland 257 13.3 How to move from one phase to another:
11.5 Discussion 265 electrification in practice 298
11.6 Policy recommendations 268 References 299
Appendix 1. Hot water heat storages connected to district
heating networks in use and already decided Index 301
projects 269
Contributors
Pami Aalto Faculty of Management and Business/ Juha Kiviluoma VTT Technical Research Centre of
Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland Ltd., Espoo, Finland
Finland Matti Kojo Faculty of Management and Business/
Kalle Aro Faculty of Management and Business/ Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland Jukka Konttinen Faculty of Engineering and Natu-
Mert Bilgin Department of Political Science and ral Sciences/Materials Science and Environmental
International Relations, School of Humanities and Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
Social Sciences, Medipol University, Istanbul, Juha Koskela Faculty of Information Technology
Turkey and Communication Sciences/Electrical Engineer-
Tomas Bj€ orkqvist Faculty of Engineering and Natu- ing, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
ral Sciences/Automation and Mechanical Engineer- Kirsi Kotilainen VTT Technical Research Centre of
ing Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland Finland Ltd., Espoo, Finland
Pirkko Harsia Faculty of Building Services Engi- Kimmo Lummi Faculty of Information Technology
neering, Built Environment and Bioeconomy Unit, and Communication Sciences/Electrical Engineer-
Tampere University of Applied Sciences, Tampere, ing, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
Finland
Jyrki Luukkanen Finland Futures Research Centre,
Teresa Haukkala Aalto University School of Busi- University of Turku, Tampere, Finland
ness, Espoo, Finland
Yrj€
o Majanne Faculty of Engineering and Natural
Juhani Heljo Faculty of Built Environment, Civil Sciences/Automation and Mechanical Engineering
Engineering Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
Finland
Akihisa Mori Graduate School of Global Environ-
Hannele Holttinen Recognis Oy, Espoo, Finland mental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto
Pertti J€arventausta Faculty of Information Technol- Prefecture, Japan
ogy and Communication Sciences/Electrical Engi- C. Johannes Muth Faculty of Management and
neering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland Business/Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tam-
Jari Kaivo-oja Finland Futures Research Centre, pere, Finland
University of Turku, Tampere, Finland; Kazimiero Fanni Myll€ari Faculty of Engineering and Natural
Simonaviciaus University, Vilnius, Lithuania Sciences/Physics, Tampere University, Tampere,
Kari Kallioharju Faculty of Built Environment, Civil Finland
Engineering Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Anna P€ a€
akk€onen Enmac Oy, Tampere, Finland;
Finland; Faculty of Building Services Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences/Mate-
Built Environment and Bioeconomy Unit, Tampere rials Science and Environmental Engineering, Tam-
University of Applied Sciences, Tampere, Finland pere University, Tampere, Finland
Sarah Kilpel€ainen Faculty of Management and Lasse Peltonen Faculty of Information Technology
Business/Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tam- and Communication Sciences/Electrical Engineer-
pere, Finland ing, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
ix
x Contributors
Sirja-Leena Penttinen Faculty of Social Sciences and Jaakko Sorri Faculty of Built Environment, Civil En-
Business Studies/Law School, University of Eastern gineering Unit, Tampere University, Tampere,
Finland, Joensuu, Finland Finland
Esa Pursiheimo VTT Technical Research Centre of Benjamin Sovacool Center for Energy Technolo-
Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland gies, Department of Business Development and
Antti Rautiainen Faculty of Information Technol- Technology, Aarhus University, Herning,
ogy and Communication Sciences/Electrical Denmark; Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU),
Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, University of Sussex Business School, Falmer, East
Finland Sussex, United Kingdom
Sami Repo Faculty of Information Technology and Kim Talus Faculty of Social Sciences and Business
Communication Sciences/Electrical Engineering, Studies/Law School, University of Eastern Finland,
Tampere University, Tampere, Finland Joensuu, Finland
Topi R€onkk€o Faculty of Engineering and Natural Jussi Valta Faculty of Management and Business/
Sciences/Physics, Tampere University, Tampere, Industrial Engineering and Management, Tampere
Finland University, Tampere, Finland
Ilkka Ruostetsaari Faculty of Management and Jarmo Vehmas Finland Futures Research Centre,
Business/Politics Unit, Tampere University, University of Turku, Tampere, Finland
Tampere, Finland Taimi Vesterinen Faculty of Engineering and Natu-
Ulla A. Saari Faculty of Management and Business/ ral Sciences/Materials Science and Environmental
Industrial Engineering and Management, Tampere Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
University, Tampere, Finland; J€
onk€
oping Interna- Matti Vilkko Faculty of Engineering and Natural
tional Business School, J€ onk€
oping University, Sciences/Automation and Mechanical Engineering
J€
onk€oping, Sweden Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
Preface
This book focuses on a subject that is little dis- outcome of the globally ongoing transition to
cussed on its own termsdthe electrification of new renewable energy sources such as wind
energy systems and societies. Such a focus dif- and solar power that produce “only” electricityd
fers from most studies examining the electric en- but not heat, unlike fossil fuels, biomass, or
ergy system as such or its future development. geothermal energy. This switch to renewable en-
Indeed, studies abound in various engineering ergies is also a pervasive topic in the predomi-
disciplines on the evolution of electric energy nantly social scientific field of sustainability
systems. Often these studies also mention how transitions, but very rarely do these studies
electricity is becoming the main energy carrier, extend to questions such as what electrification
notably replacing the combustion of fossil fuels is ultimately all about, how it might develop,
for power and heat. A burgeoning field of what such development presupposes, what prob-
studies also concentrates on how electric energy lems will likely be encountered on the way, and
systems are developing toward “smart grid” what the consequences of all this may be.
type “systems of systems,” where the manage- In this book, electrification is considered from
ment of electricity flows becomes central not the perspective of climate neutrality. Climate
only for the production, distribution, and con- neutrality is a grand policy goal set by human
sumption of power but also for energy use in beingsdan increasing number of societies, com-
transport, buildings, and industry. Such studies panies, and civil society actorsdone that envis-
span perspectives from several engineering, in- ages renewable electricity generation with
formation, and communication sciences with “electricity-only” resources as the main means
research on computer science, artificial intelli- to that end. Because of this essentially societal
gence, software, as well as studies on innovation aspect of electrification, studies on this subject
and technology development, for example. The should not be limited to the characteristics of
technical insights of such studies will naturally the energy system. Ultimately, research should
be surveyed in this book but chiefly to help us reach out to address the implications of electrifi-
better understand electrification as a megatrend cation for society, economy, and politics and
that transforms energy systems and societies. likewise to international relations and what is
The field of research on electricity markets is often called the geopolitics of energy in a world
already well established in economics and busi- where oil or natural gas matter less than they
ness studies. However, electrification as an over- once did. In other words, electrification becomes
all megatrend reshaping the energy markets and a relevant subject of enquiry in multiple fields
business in several ways has so far received scant because of the outcome of climate neutrality it
explicit attention. This is surprising, given that can deliver, although its character as a technical
electrification is a logical yet game-changing phenomenon also remains important.
xi
xii Preface
Moreover, the world is anxiously hastening find some sections of this book familiar terrain,
the efforts for climate neutrality. This means some other sections should guide them to new
that most societies will for a long time be seeking territories. For policy analysts, professionals,
ways to speed up their actions. Accelerated tran- and practitioners, this book is intended to serve
sition therefore becomes urgent. Hence, the focus as an accessible handbook on the state-of-the-
here is on how the adoption of various electrifi- art of technologies, infrastructures, and policies,
cation measures could be accelerated by means and no less of their interrelationships, illustrated
of developing and implementing policies and by means of several case studies. Overall, the
policy instruments. Approaching electrification role of various policy instruments and their use
from the perspective of how its introduction in suitable combinations is what differentiates
could be accelerated in the interests of achieving this book from most studies on electric energy
climate neutrality is the new path of research this systems and climate-neutral transitions.
book seeks to pioneer. The agenda of energy systems transitioning
Naturally there are many important transition toward climate neutrality via electrification in
paths toward climate neutrality meriting atten- an accelerated manner, and the related policies,
tion in parallel with and apart from electrification. is a very broad field we can probe only selec-
However, hardly any of these offer equal mea- tively. Our case studies mostly concern devel-
sures of globally scalable potential. One of them oped countries. In many of them, electrification
is the frequently mentioned field of power-to-X is progressing satisfactorily. Some references
technologies and the associated hydrogen econ- are made, however, to more challenging cases,
omy, where gas-based fuels replace fossil fuels where either material or social structures, or
in several energy end-use sectors and open up their combinations, inhibit similar development.
promising new value chains. While those pros- In prospective studies, more attention will be
pects are indeed great, we wish to accentuate needed on the world’s numerous emerging and
that these will mostly likely be outcomes of wide- developing countries. This is especially the
spread electrification that first needs to advance. case, given that the patterns of inherited energy
Large-scale hydrogen economy has to be climate infrastructures and societal constraints are to
neutral or sustainable in the wider sense, and it some extent case-specific, requiring follow-up
may best be achieved when based on hydrogen work on a number of cases. The implications of
produced by renewably generated electricity. electrification for development policy and inter-
This book is intended for several reader national relations are another area in need of
segments. Energy engineers will learn of the further research. Likewise is the wider circle of
interface between technologies, infrastructures, policy processes from policy formation and
society, and policy. With this, this book refers development to implementation, evaluation,
to societal path-dependencies, lock-ins, vested and follow-up, to which this book can only
interests, and other constraints along the way make passing reference.
to new technologies and infrastructures, elabo- The field opened up for enquiry here is decid-
rating policy instruments to overcome these, edly interdisciplinary and should be even more
and describing some unsuccessful attempts to so in the future. In many of the chapters that
do so. Social scientists and energy lawyers will follow, engineers and social scientists represent-
learn of the technologies and infrastructures for ing a variety of specializations have worked
electrifying energy systems, their mutual inter- together, in the capacity of codesign of the
dependencies, and how they both constrain research reported, co-authorship, or interdisci-
and enable societal choices and policy options. plinary commentary and debate. This is not yet
In other words, while readers will undoubtedly the new normal, but it should indeed become
Preface xiii
so for many questions on electrification. The coordinated by Tampere University, 2016e18,
need for more disciplinary studies naturally con- with 15 companies involved); this project
tinues to exist simultaneously, but such studies comprised an Internet-of-Things (IoT)-based
cannot exist alone. technology platform for the exploitation of
The authors are grateful for several sources of various distributed energy resources, taking
funding that have enabled the efforts reported into account both the electricity market and po-
here. The bulk of the work was supported by wer system management perspectives. The proj-
the large-scale consortium “Transition to a ect “Prosumer Centric Energy
Resource Efficient and Climate Neutral Elec- Communitiesdtowards Energy Ecosystem”
tricity System” (EL-TRAN, funded by the Stra- (ProCemPlus, 2019e21), with Tampere Univer-
tegic Research Council at the Academy of sity, Tampere University of Applied Sciences,
Finland, project no. 314319, 2015e21, and led and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
by Pami Aalto). The partners comprised Tam- involved alongside 11 companies. This project
pere University, Tampere University of Applied examined the formation of individual energy
Sciences, the University of Eastern Finland, the communities into broader business-oriented en-
University of Turku, and VTT Technical ergy ecosystems through several research
Research Centre of Finland, with several public, themes and concrete pilot cases related to the
private, and NGO sector stakeholders playing development of energy communities, and ana-
key roles as part of the consortium’s interaction lysed the role of microgrids and energy commu-
panel. This wide stakeholder involvement was nities in the future energy ecosystem.
invaluable for the consortium’s work and helped Several chapters of this book have also
to make it more relevant for the ongoing energy benefited from work within the Business
transition. Many colleagues not directly Finlandefunded consortium “Black Carbon
involved in this book have also greatly sup- Footprint” (BCfp, 2019e22, coordinated by Tam-
ported the consortium’s work in various capac- pere University and Finnish Meteorological
ities and through invaluable cooperation: Institute, Topi R€ onkk€o and Hilkka Timonen),
Karoliina Auvinen, Marika Hakkarainen, with several universities and companies as part-
Mikael Hilden, Kaisa Huhta, Iida Jaakkola, ners. The research for Chapter 10 is also linked to
Jari Ihonen, Johanna Kirkinen, Maria the project “Platforms of Big Data Foresight
Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Timo Korpela, Aki (PLATBIDAFO),” which has received funding
Kortetm€ aki, Heidi Krons-V€ alim€aki, Raimo from the European Regional Development
Lovio, Anna M. Oksa, Ontrei Reipala, Armi Fund (Project No 01.2.2-LMT-K-718-02-0019) un-
Temmes, Pasi Toivanen, Sanna Uski, and Seppo der a grant agreement with the Research Council
Valkealahti. of Lithuania. For speedy and reliable language
We also wish to acknowledge the Business revision work, we would like to warmly
Finland funded project that has supported our acknowledge Virginia Mattila.
work on energy use in buildings: the Center for Finally, the authors wish to thank numerous
Electrical Engineering and Energy Efficiency colleagues and commentators for critical com-
STEK (co-operation project “Future Energy Solu- ments and detailed observations in conferences
tions for the Urban Environment”). Our work on and seminars, and our significant others for all
producer-consumers (prosumers) has been sup- their support and tolerance in the fairly chal-
ported by two further Business Finlandefunded lenging times of lockdown owing to the
projects. The project “Social Energyd Prosumer COVID-19 pandemic under which this book
Centric Energy Ecosystem” (ProCem, was prepared.
P A R T I
Framework for transition to

electrification
C H A P T E R
1
Introduction: electrification and the
energy transition
Pami Aalto1, Teresa Haukkala2, Sarah Kilpel€ainen1, Matti Kojo1
1
Faculty of Management and Business/Politics Unit, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland; 2Aalto
University School of Business, Espoo, Finland
1.1 Electrification as the “new oil” conceptions of the role of resources in interna-
tional relations. We briefly survey each of these
Electricity is frequently referred to as the “new changes in order to outline the scope of this
oil” or the new backbone of energy systems book.
globally. Electricity powers an increasing number
of activities, making electrification a megatrend
1.1.1 What changes will electrification
decisively shaping our social and material
environments. While this implies drastic changes
bring about?
and entails new questions to answer, it will First, in the production phase of the energy
also help to address some thorny problems we system, the globally ongoing turn to renewable
are facing. energy sources acts as a major catalyst of electrifi-
We characterize the megatrend of electrifica- cation. There are sufficient renewable energy
tion by referring to seven interrelated changes. resources to replace our current use of fossil fuels,
The first three relate to the energy system, where since renewables are plentiful in various forms
the production, distribution, and consumption throughout the planet; likewise a wide range of
phases are becoming increasingly electrified. technological solutions for their exploitation are
The fourth change pertains to indirect electrifica- also available (Yahyaoui, 2018a,b). Despite this
tion, whereby electricity is used to produce for great potential, several problems remain to be
example synthetic fuels. The last three changes solved to actually build and operate energy
widen the perspective considerably. At the soci- systems based entirely on renewable sources.
etal level, electrification has several highly trans- Many of these problems are tackled in this
formative repercussions. On the wider book, where we proceed from the observation
international level, electrification has develop- that globally the most potent and fastest expand-
mental implications while it also shapes our ing sectors of renewable energy, wind power, and
Electrification
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822143-3.00006-8 3 © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
4 1. Introduction: electrification and the energy transition
solar PV power are “electricity-only” resources. fossil fuels. The climate benefits of divestment
Emerging resources such as tidal and wave are undeniably contested; some think it may
power, alongside traditional hydropower, are hamper the industry’s conversion into less
also electricity-only resources. By contrast, climate burdening business. Nevertheless, the
burning fossil fuels releases heat that can be con- greater problem from the perspective of climate
verted into mechanical energy and further into neutrality is the ever-increasing global energy
electricity. At the same time burning creates demand. This increase is fueled predominantly
emissionsdincluding waste heat from inefficient by the growing energy needs of developing
conversion processesdand noise from the com- (and emerging) countries, which consume
bustion engines used for instance in the vehicles most of the expanding fossil fuels supply while
that populate our streets and roads. simultaneously increasing their own renewable
We will propose several reasons for this turn production. In other words, the absolute
to electricity-only renewable resources. Howev- volume of fossil fuel consumption may increase
er, we contend that this transition is particularly globally, despite divestment, alongside expan-
warranted because it can support the ambitious sion in the absolute volume of renewables and
goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate an increase in their share of the energy mix.
policy. In this Agreement, 175 countries agreed This would mean de facto higher cumulative
to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases GHG emissions. Such scenarios are possible,
(GHGs) into the atmosphere to jointly delimit for instance, in Southeast Asia, India, and the
long-term global warming to 1.5 C (UN, 2015). Middle East (IEA, 2019a, Annex A). Finally,
The Agreement expresses a political commit- when contemplating who should reduce emis-
ment to pursue climate neutrality, by which the sions and by how much, a solution fully serving
International Panel on Climate Change refers to the principles of distributive justice is elusive.
a state of affairs where human actions have The developed member countries of the Organi-
zero effect on climate change. These include zation of Economic Cooperation and Develop-
not only CO2 emissions but also emissions of ment (OECD) remain responsible for roughly
other GHGs, of which Short-Lived Climate a half of the historically accumulated CO2 emis-
Pollutants (SLCPs) such as methane, black car- sions (Kolstad et al., 2014, pp. 217e19; Blanco
bon, and ozone are most crucial (UNEP, 2019). et al., 2014, p. 359).
Land-use issues are inseparable from GHG emis- Alongside the transition to electricity-only
sions, and refer to the “carbon sink” or the ability renewables, we also need to recognize the other
of forests, crops, swamps, seas, and, for example, transition paths to climate neutrality, some of
wood products to bind CO2 (IPCC, 2018, p. 545). which are complementary or built on electrifica-
Yet the transition to electricity-only renew- tion while others, at least to some extent, may
ables is hampered by several issues, primarily compete with widespread electrification. Each
that they have to compete with the continuously of these paths has its own benefits and associated
expanding supply of fossil fuels. This expansion problems (see Box 1.1).
results from the production of unconventional The transition path based on electricity-only
oil and natural gas and the ability of the oil renewables offers high climate neutrality gains,
and natural gas industries to develop better geographically wide applicability, and high
methods of fully exploiting old, depleting scalability. These features may well make it the
fields (Covert et al., 2016). Fossil fuel industries predominant path, but it is not problem-free.
nevertheless face constraints of their own. By Regarding climate neutrality, the biggest prob-
the end of 2020, more than 1200 institutional lem in the production phase is high raw mate-
investors had announced long-term divestment rials intensity. In life cycle analysis, wind and
plans (withdrawing their investments) from solar power face questions of environmental
I. Framework for transition to electrification

BOX 1.1
Transition paths to climate neutrality

The electrification path is often linked to Retrofitting existing fossil fuel power plants
several gas-based paths, which can also be with CCUS technologies is often proposed as a
viewed as advanced phases of electrification. pragmatic means of reducing emissions without
Perhaps the most potent is the energy use of early phasing out of power plants so incumbent
hydrogen. A high volume of renewably gener- actors can recover their sunk cost investments.
ated electricity necessitates storing the occasion- CCUS would enable the continued use of fossil
ally generated excess electricity that cannot be fuels without large emissions, for example, in
fed into the grid, exported via electricity intercon- China, where the fleet of coal plants is relatively
nectors, or instantly consumed. Such excess young, or in the USA, where unconventional
electricity can via electrolysis be converted into natural gas is plentiful, widely exploited, and
a gaseous storable resource by splitting water relatively inexpensive as long as its environ-
molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. The mental implications are not fully appreciated.
hydrogen can be reconverted to electricity upon In the industrial sector, CCUS can help reduce
demand and despatched to the electricity grid, emissions, for example, in the heavily emitting
stored in transportable fuel cells, or distributed cement and metal industries. In the bioenergy
via pipelines for use as fuel, for example, in the segment, CCUS could decrease the CO2 emitted
transport or industrial sectors. Alongside such in power, heat, and biofuel applications. In this
renewable or “green” hydrogen, nonrenewable context CCUS is often viewed as a means to
“gray” hydrogen can be produced directly from achieve “negative emissions” as carbon emitted
fossil fuels and “blue” hydrogen, when carbon in the combustion process is removed from the
capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technol- atmosphere and new biomass is expected to
ogies (see below) are added into the system. The replace the utilized biomass, eventually binding
different types of hydrogen have implications carbon (REN21, 2020, p. 91). However, for both
for climate neutrality targets. fossil fuel and biomass-based CCUS applica-
Renewably generated electricity can further- tions, uncertainty persists on the availability of
more be used to produce synthetic fuels. Overall, large-scale carbon storage and demand for its
the paths where electricity is converted to other use on a global scale, likewise on costs and
energy carriers, either gaseous or liquid formats, low policy support, especially with the rapidly
are often called “power-to-X” technologies. All falling costs of wind and solar power (IEA,
such technologies offer benefits in terms of 2019a). The climate neutrality status of various
storability while concerns relate to the efficiency CCUS technologies depends on whether the
of conversion and identifying the additional origin of the carbon is fossil fuel or biomass
value in relation to the direct use of electricity. based, whether the carbon is stored, for how
Finally, the gas-based paths include the option long, and whether it is used or not. These differ-
of using organic matter to produce hydrogen or ences also shape the compatibility of CCUS tech-
renewable biogas (which can be upgraded into nologies with emission trading or carbon pricing
biomethane that is compatible with natural gas schemes.
infrastructures; see Chapters 2 and 7).

sustainability, as do all energy technologies (see gradual drift away from that world will decrease
Chapters 2 and 10). Moreover, wind and solar the strategic significance of oil and natural gas
power are weather-dependent. Fortunately, in resources and their respective infrastructures
many regions, their use can be combined with including pipelines, tankers, and fuel terminals.
the use of traditional renewable technologies The networks of filling stations will also be un-
such as hydropower, or biomass-based or der pressure. Yet in the natural gas sector, invest-
geothermal facilities producing both power and ment in transmission and distribution pipelines,
heat, improving their attractiveness in environ- as well as liquefaction and regasification termi-
ments requiring space heating. In some regions, nals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected
concentrated solar power (CSP) plants can pro- to proliferate until the end of the 2020s in devel-
vide heat, cool, and power, while in others, solar oping and developed countries alike, and partic-
thermal collectors or small-scale geothermal ularly in the USA. Natural gas infrastructure
systems can supply heat to buildings. Further may also serve the potential expansion of the
transition paths include hydrogen and other use of biogas, which is largely an unexploited
gas-based technologies, synthetic fuels, and car- resource (IEA, 2019a, pp. 583e7; see also Chap-
bon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) ters 2 and 7). Weather-dependent resources
technologies (see Box 1.1), as well as traditional may also need access to gas-based infrastructure
nuclear power alongside small-scale modular if, for example, excess wind power is converted
nuclear reactors (SMRs) (see Chapter 2). In fact, into hydrogen to be fed into a pipeline network
no form of production represents a “silver bul- (see Box 1.1).
let” on its own. Hence electricity-only At the same time, enormous investment is
renewables alone do not have to completely expected in electricity gridsdglobally, in the
solve the climate neutrality challenge and are IEA’s “stated policies” scenario, $354 bln annu-
likely to be combined with other modes of ally during 2019e30, and $455 bln during
production (see Chapters 2, 4, 5, 11, and 12). In 2031e40. In the “sustainable development” sce-
many cases, “sector-coupling” solutions are nario, the cumulative needs are even greater
applicable whereby electricity is converted to (IEA, 2019a, pp. 748e9). Roughly a quarter of
heat, used directly in the heating of buildings this investment need would be for Transmission
or in industrial sectors in place of other fuels, System Operators (TSOs) to enhance transmis-
or stored in gaseous or liquid form to be used sion networks, for example, to connect offshore
later in transport, building or industrial sectors wind power parks with large-scale consump-
(Pilpola and Lund, 2018). tion in cities. The remaining three-quarters
Second, in the distribution phase, electrification would be invested by Distribution System
reforges the global chains of energy as once they Operators (DSOs) (Petit, 2019, pp. 116e117).
were knowndbased on unevenly distributed, Such needs may arise because DSOs must rein-
point-source fossil fuel resources (van der Ploeg, force their grids because of the extra demand for
2011). The nature of these resources enables grid capacity created by the electrification of
generating high revenue from long chains of heating. Further needs may arise from the inte-
value creation where minerals are extracted gration into the grid of decentralized electricity
onshore and offshore, transported over long dis- infrastructure such as rooftop solar panels.
tances, converted into various fuels, and finally Such changes profoundly affect the manage-
burned at high temperatures to produce power ment practices of electric energy grids, as in
and heat. These end products are then distrib- developed countries the grids are generally
uted for consumption, with emissions trans- centralized, one-way systems built to deliver
mitted locally, nationally, and globally. The electricity from large or medium-scale power

plants to the points of consumption. By fails to meet demand, even when combined
contrast, in the rural parts of many developing with other generation options, and sometimes
countries, off-grid alternatives can be poten- it exceeds the demand, necessitating different
tially highly useful, in the form of small-scale levels of storage of electricity (see Chapter 5).
installations of solar power combined with bat- Fourth, beyond these direct electrification
tery storage for night-time use, for households, trends in the energy system as such, in the
communities, or farms. Such solutions offer various industrial sectors, indirect electrification
short-term installation periods and low upfront can occur. This term refers to processes where
costs. This is important, especially when institu- direct electrification is neither possible nor
tional capacity to develop centralized grids is feasible. This means the use of electricity, by
low, investment capacity of the utility com- means of electrolysis, to produce energy carriers
panies low, grid connection relatively expensive such as chemicals and fuels in gaseous or liquid
and expected energy demand relatively low, form: hydrogen or hydrogen-rich fuels and
and where local resources can generate elec- chemicals such as ammonia and methanol that
tricity directly onsite with low upfront cost are traditionally produced from fossil fuels. In
(Levin and Thomas, 2016). this way, it is possible to use energy products
Third, in the consumption phase, we witness in other economic sectors, store electricity long-
further examples of sector coupling in the term, or enable long-haul energy transport in
form of transitions to electricity in transport, chemical format (Philibert, 2019). For example,
heating, industry, businesses, and households. the iron and steel industries, which account for
In the transport sector, switching to electric one-third of global industrial CO2 emissions,
vehicles (EVs) can replace a large share of oil- can switch from coal burning to the use of
consuming vehicles. In the residential heating hydrogen generated from renewably produced
sector, electricity-consuming heat pumps can electricity (Karakaya et al., 2018). Hydrogen
replace the burning of oil and natural gas (see produced by electrolysis can also be reacted
Chapters 7 and 8). In the various industrial with CO2 captured from thermal power genera-
sectors, electrification can replace fossil fuels tors, industrial processes such as fuel use or
in the generation of the heat required in the pro- other chemical processes, or from the atmo-
duction processes, via technologies such as sphere (direct air capture). This yields electro-
infrared heating, ultraviolet curing, microwave fuels in the form of methane, methanol, or
and radio frequency heating, induction heating, Fischer-Tropsch (FT) hydrocarbons that can be
melting or hardening, and electric arc furnaces. refined to make them compatible with existing
The globally increasing electricity access fossil fuel infrastructure (Lehtonen et al., 2019).
enables the use of new electric appliances and Such conversion processes imply the use of
facilitates new use cases such as cooling and CCUS technologies, which have limitations of
digitalization (IEA, 2017, pp. 234e5; Philibert, their own (see Box 1.1).
2019, p. 202). This is dependent on the price of Fifth, there are wider, relatively little discussed
electricity in relation to alternative fuels, in social dimensions to electrification. In many “smart
particular when overall annual subsidies for visions” with new electricity generation, distribu-
fossil fuels amounted globally to over $400 bln tion technologies, and related IT infrastructure
in 2018 (IEA, 2019b). Subsidies for electricity (Taşcikaraoglu and Erdinç, 2019), humans are
access would have to be well targeted to mostly absent. Sometimes they are somewhat
avoid subsidizing better-off large consumers technocratically referred to as users or consumers.
(IEA, 2019a, p. 471). Sometimes increasingly Such roles do exist, but since human beings are
weather-dependent production of electricity the performers of the new practices the new

solutions enable, we should also think of them running into familiar problems of producing
as people: citizens or members of the public ambiguous outcomes and reproducing unequal
with a stake in the changes (cf. Labuissiere power relations (Ahlborg, 2018). Energy justice
and Nada€i, 2018). In a word, changes in issues are pivotal here. In terms of distributive
everyday practices are required if households justice, it matters if everyone within the same
are to offer “flexibility services” in the same jurisdiction is offered similar access to electricity.
way as industries have traditionally done in In terms of procedural justice, the concerns
some countries. For example, several funda- involve transparency and participation in
mental social dimensions emerge when home decision-making over solutions, siting, financing,
automation technologies use real-time data on and capacity transfer (Delina, 2018, pp. 155e7).
electricity consumption (on the loads caused Seventh, electrification ultimately changes the
by certain appliances), to adjust electricity role of energy resources in international relations
consumption in response to the variation in as we know it. Resource conflicts typical for
weather-dependent production or to ameliorate unevenly distributed point-source fossil fuels,
peak demand situations (Strengers, 2013, pp. as seen, for example, in the Middle East and
5e9). Such behavioral aspects are not insignifi- Africa (Colgan, 2013), should not repeat. Yet
cant since buildings in the residential and the literature on the “geopolitics of renewables”
business sectors account for over half of global addresses new types of interdependencies where
electricity demand (Philibert, 2019). Further producers of renewable energy technology can
electrification is the most important solution become dependent on trade flows of rare earths
for reducing emissions in this sector, followed and minerals used as raw material in the produc-
by the use of renewable sources in heating and tion of the technology (Scholten and Bosman,
improvements in building design and efficiency 2016). So far, these flows go in particular from
standards set for home appliances (Wang et al., China to companies in the USA, Europe, and
2018). Yet such electrification requires full Japan. These flows are combined, for example,
comprehension of the controversies between with the expected increase in flows of cross-
these policy domains and the related interest border electricity trade, helping to balance
groups (see Chapters 3 and 8). In summary, to production and consumption across regions
fully understand residential consumption, the and countries. This is necessary as variable,
analysis needs to extend to everyday practices, weather-dependent production increases. Such
life course practices, and societal structures a wider region where production is shared and
shaping these (Yamaguchi, 2019). traded can also support the technical quality of
Sixth, electrification can also advance develop- electricity by helping to maintain sufficient levels
ment. Many studies describe rural electrification of inertia in the electric energy grids when they
projects and programs, and small-scale decen- are chiefly supplied by variable production
tralized off-grid solutions in developing coun- (Aalto and Muth, 2019). Together, such trade
tries (Kirchhoff et al., 2016; Mandelli et al., flows alter the power relations among major
2016). A typical argument is that developing fossil fuel exporters and their traditional cus-
countries or some of their more remote regions tomers in North America, Europe, and Asia.
can in this way leapfrog the historical patterns Trade in renewable energy technologies and
of energy system development in the industrial- equipment may also involve more traditional
ized countries where economies of scale have protectionism, as seen in the “solar protection-
supported the building of fossil fuelebased ism” of the USA, the EU, and India, where they
centralized systems with high upfront costs impose tariffs on Chinese solar PV technologies
(Levin and Thomas, 2016). If such electrification as antidumping measures. Overall, however, the
projects involve development aid, they risk emerging agenda of “geopolitics of renewables”

1.2 Why and how to accelerate electrification? 9
will for various reasons quite likely differ from Because electricity represents “network energies”
that of the geopolitics of oil (Øverland, 2019). (Tagliapietra, 2017, pp. 18e9), concerning several
We summarize the wide agenda of electrifica- flows within “energy ecosystems” (Goldthau
tion as follows: et al., 2018), electrification has far-reaching impli-
cations within energy systems as such and several
Electrification is a mega-trend whereby less fuel is repercussions beyond them.
eventually burned to produce energy, with the con-
In this book we can address only part of this
nectivity of goods, services and people becoming
more reliant on electricity, a larger share of the energy wide agenda, and will concentrate mostly on
we use taking the form of electricity, industrial pro- electrification of the energy system and society
cesses becoming more dependent on electricity, while in developed countries. In developing countries,
many social and economic activities are also infiltrated by contrast, electrification is often inseparable
with electricity, which furthermore has implications
from issues of energy access, energy justice,
for global development in the form of energy access
and to the role of resources in international relations and poverty alleviation, and indeed, from
and perceptions of (energy) justice. many other issues on the Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals agenda of the United Nations
The mega-trend of electrification means that (Delina, 2018; Filho et al., 2020). We will examine
electricity gradually pervades not only energy sys- mostly direct electrification within the electric
tems, but also our lives as human beings from the energy system and its wider social conse-
scale of everyday life to the global level. In other quences. While our overall focus in this book
words, electrification is about much more than will be on various solutions leading to electrifica-
the end product of electricity itself. Compared to tion, we have a particular interest in how these so-
fossil fuels or biomass sources, electricity is a lutions can be accelerated in order to support the
very peculiar type of energy carrier because it work on climate neutrality.
can be both readily used and transported over
long distances, and also converted into mechanical
work with almost 100% efficiency (Goldemberg,
2012, pp. 149e150). Although electricity in this 1.2 Why and how to accelerate
sense is a very convenient material commodity, electrification?
its extensive use entails challenges. To be sensi-
tive to the multifaceted character of electricity, In this book we propose that accelerated elec-
we treat it as thoroughly material, meaning that trification is both a possible and desirable policy
while electricity comprises physical flows, we goal. First, it is possible in the technical sense.
are also interested in the actors and networks Some voices in this debate suggest a need
that underpin and facilitate these flows and for “bridge fuels” during the transition period
benefit from them (Spaargaren et al., 2006). (Delborne et al., 2020).1 Yet several modeling
1
On a global scale, natural gas is the most often mentioned fuel, since it has lower combustion emissions than coal or oil.
However, the final emissions depend on the type of natural gas. In the USA, increasing shale gas production partly replaced
coal-generated electricity and doubled natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production from the late 2000s to 2016. Yet studies
disagree on whether the emissions from extraction processes from shale, when combined with combustion emissions, cause
greater or less overall GHG emissions (methane) than the use of coal. This controversy originates in the imprecision of
measurements from widely varying drilling conditions, which cannot reliably report the methane leakage nationwide (Smil,
2015, pp. 175e180). Toward the 2020s, biogas and hydrogen-based alternative fuels forcefully entered global policy debates,
used either independently or alongside natural gas (IEA, 2019a, p. 578).

studies suggest that this is not necessary for any TABLE 1.1 Climate neutrality targets in selected
technical reasons. By 2050, a world with close to countries.
100% of electricity supplied by renewable Country Target year Target status
resources is technically feasible (e.g., Breyer
et al., 2018). Some modeling studies even claim Suriname Achieved Already carbon negative
that such systems with intermittent resources Bhutan Achieved Already carbon negative
like wind, solar, and hydro would be operable
Norway 2030 Legal obligation
with no load losses across the world (Jacobson
et al., 2018). Several country-specific modeling Uruguay 2030 Policy commitment;
submitted to the UN
studies also support their technical feasibility
(Mathiesen et al., 2015). Finland 2035 Policy commitment
Second, accelerated electrification is possible Austria 2040 Policy commitment
in the political sense. Dozens of countries aim
Iceland 2040 Policy commitment
at an electricity supply based 100% on renewable
resources by 2050 or earlier. Hundreds of com- Sweden 2045 Legal obligation
panies, many of them global leaders, commit to Denmark 2050 Legal obligation
a similar pledge, for example, through the
EU (26 Member 2050 Policy commitment
RE100 initiative. The boldest targets comprise
States)
not only 100% renewably produced electricity,
but renewable sources replacing fossil fuels in Canada 2050 Policy commitment
the overall energy system (see Table 1.1). In Chile 2050 In policy document
Europe, in 2019, the Member States (MS) of the
China 2060 Policy commitment
EU accepted a 100% climate neutrality target
by 2050, with the sole exception of Poland; at Costa Rica 2050 Policy commitment;
submitted to the UN
the same time, many MS will retain nuclear
power as part of their generation portfolio. All Fiji 2050 Policy commitment;
this would nevertheless mean renewables submitted to the UN
becoming globally predominant not only in Japan 2050 Policy commitment
energy production but also in the consumption
Marshall 2050 Policy commitment
sectors of transport, heating, industry, and agri- Islands
culture. In this way, these consumption sectors
New Zealand 2050 Legal obligation
would also become to a large extent electrified.
However, because technical feasibility and po- South Africa 2050 Policy commitment
litical targets do not necessarily translate into South Korea 2050 Policy commitment
transition outcomes (Roberts and Geels, 2019),
Switzerland 2050 Policy commitment
our main question in this book is how can
renewable-based electrification of the overall energy UK 2050 Legal obligation
system be achieved in practice, and how can it be accel-
Based on (Climate Home News, 2020). Which Countries Have a Net Zero
erated? A sobering thought here is how in the Carbon Goal? https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-
“stated policies” and “sustainable development” zero-climate-goal/. (Accessed 13 November 2020). EU Member States are listed
scenarios of the International Energy Agency separately in case their national target is stricter than that of the whole EU.
(IEA), by 2040, the share of electricity would,

respectively, reach “only” a quarter or less than figure of less than a tenth in the early 1970s and
a third of the final consumption of energy. That 19% in 2018 (IEA, 2017, p. 234; 2019a,b, p. 42).
would nevertheless compare favorably with the Yet a large gap clearly prevails between the

1.2 Why and how to accelerate electrification? 11
profound electrification implied in the above- incremental and eventually results in a new
mentioned ambitious policy targets and the equilibrium (Durrant et al., 2018; Kanger and
scenarios of the IEA. This gap may eventually Schot, 2019). However, niche acceleration does
be bridged given how the renewable energy not always proceed linearly and may instead
scenarios of the IEA have previously proven far backlash or lock-in as a niche (Kivimaa et al.,
too cautious. Moreover, the renewable energy 2019); neither are cost reductions automatic,
transition, and with it electrification, may follow but require RDI and incremental improvement
the s-shaped curve typical for technology adop- (Harvey et al., 2018, p. 38). Patterns of boom
tion, as seen historically, for example, in how and bust are also possible.
electricity access and mobile phones reached Widespread electrification will not only create
nearly everyone in the developed world. Such new realities by supporting the evolution of the
an s-curve development would see the creation niches, but will also abolish many existing
of a niche market, followed by widespread solutions as pointed out by a rich literature on
diffusion, and finally saturation of the market creative destruction. Some of the incumbent
(McMillan, 2018). companies and whole industries may vanish
Several phases of technology development when new concepts, products, and technologies
may be discerned on the way to widespread emerge (Schumpeter, 2010 [1942]). The change
electrification. First, in an early emergence may be slow or fast, and involves technological
phase, new technological solutions develop and organizational changes inherent in capital-
within a protected niche. Successful technolog- ism (Lovio et al., 2011). Creative destruction
ical niches can yield improvements in terms may be very necessary for the transition to
of price or performance. These can emerge as accelerate (Kivimaa and Kern, 2016), given the
a result of research, development, and innova- political urgency of climate neutrality. David
tion (RDI) activities; demonstration projects; (2018) speaks of exnovation, a process in which
community-level experiments; pilot areas; and the physical infrastructure of an existing technol-
so on, enabling the nurturing of new technolo- ogy is deliberately removed from use to avoid
gies and affording them a space protected dual infrastructure.
against mainstream market selection until they At this point, we can propose that accelerated
are ready to compete (Verbong and Geels, electrification is technically possible, politically
2007). Second, in the acceleration phase niche increasingly supported, and can be pushed
technologies generate knockon effects. These further by new innovations emerging from the
make the new technology more competitive in niches. But because all this will involve creative
relation to incumbent technologies (Bauknecht destruction, creating losers, it may appear
et al., 2020). It is possible to differentiate doubtful whether this mega-trend is desirable.
between early acceleration or a take-off phase, However, losers can be directly compensated
whereby actors start clustering in support of by means of public policies (see Chapter 3),
the new technology, sharing a vision of its and indirectly by virtue of the co-benefits of
future, and a late phase, where it makes a break- accelerated electrification. What might such
through (Kivimaa et al., 2019). Third, in the co-benefits be? Here it is instructive to look at
stabilization phase the technology matures, the work of the United Nations Environmental
becomes mainstreamed, and widely adopted. Program (UNEP) on air quality and climate
Here the effects of economies of scale may be change in Asia (UNEP, 2019). For the UNEP,
important, comprising falling production costs the co-benefits relate to how measures to reduce
and further learning by doing (Harvey et al., GHG and SLCP emissions bring alongside
2018, p. 38). Thereafter the transition becomes climate benefits improved air quality and hence

health benefits, reduced healthcare costs, better At the other end, we have to take into account
crop yield, reduced flooding risks as global the wider field of economic, social, and political
warming is combatted, while they also augment stakeholders necessary for the development,
extreme weather patterns associated with adoption, and implementation of the technolo-
warming (Arif et al., 2014). In other words, the gies (Kilpel€ainen et al., 2019). This means that
co-benefits or “win-win” policy approach in order for a technology to be actually adopted,
promises something for everyone, which may we need to consider how it “fits” with society
help to involve more actors. A closely related and its stakeholders to ensure the desirability
policy approach is issue-linkage (Eikeland and of the transition.
Skjærseth, 2016). These approaches can dramat- This leads to our main argument: since acceler-
ically improve the desirability of change by ated electrification depends not only on the technolog-
multiplying the options for successful resolu- ical and infrastructural part-solutions, but also on
tion or new lock-in to renewable resources, political support and social desirability, it requires
although the risks of hampering or prolonging interaction between the key actors of the electric
decision-making remain (Stevenson, 2018).2 energy system and the wider field of stakeholders for
The big question is how to remedy the prob- actually accepted and functioning solutions to
lems inherent in accelerated transitions. One emerge. Such interaction can be detected on
possibility, elaborated in detail by Fouquet various levels of analysis ranging from the micro
(2010), is that those pushing for the transition to the meso and macro-levels. A brief survey of
can draw upon the lessons learned from past some established literatures will elucidate this
energy transitions. Although our focus here is wide research agenda and help us to develop
not on past transitions as such, we will go an interdisciplinary framework for the study of
through some case studies on experiences during accelerated electrification.
the 2000 and 2010s. We will address the balance
between technical feasibility, policy instruments
to support change, the innovation and destruc- 1.3 Technological part-solutions
tion involved and the prospects for delivering
co-benefits. Studies in the natural scientific and engineer-
At one end, we have to pay attention to the ing disciplines form the backbone for any analysis
technological, infrastructural, and further part- of accelerated electrification, as they explain
solutions in the production, distribution, and the different technological and infrastructural
consumption sectors, and on how to combine part-solutions. Here our main message is that,
these in the context of a particular electric energy although absolutely crucial, technologies are
system. Each electric energy system has its own rarely the main problem, even if some major
key actors such as power producers, TSOs, RDI work and scaling-up is still due for some
DSOs, service providers, and energy consumers. individual technologies (see Chapters 2 and 5).
2
In the East Asian case, the familiar pattern features the regional states each bringing their own concerns onto the nego-
tiation table, multiplying both cross-sectoral policy linkages and the number of affected stakeholders. At the same time, the
region’s states delegate insufficient powers to the regional organizations and task forces set up to deal with the policy issues at
stake. This results in real difficulties to adopt any binding decisions for policy change (Aalto, 2014). Similar problems of how
multiple actors weigh different co-benefits and ultimately fail to decide will emerge beyond this East Asian case.

1.4 How to engage the wider field of stakeholders? 13
The main problem is how to combine individual or possible market failures involved (H€ ubler
technologies in the production, distribution, and et al., 2015). For these reasons, a comprehensive
consumption phases to develop a climate neutral framework on the acceleration of electrification
system in a particular place that is operable and needs to extend toward the social and political
meets the needs and interests of its users. disciplines (Cherp et al., 2018), and also to the
In the various engineering disciplines, one humanities (Foulds and Robison, 2018), where
standard methodological approach is to quantify the wider field of stakeholders of the electric en-
and model the individual technological compo- ergy system and the leverage of policy are more
nents of national energy systems in order to deliberately integrated into the analysis.
explore possible transition paths. Most studies
on national electric energy systems feature such
“bottom-up” or “engineering” modeling. These 1.4 How to engage the wider field of
approaches seek to produce a detailed picture stakeholders?
of the system, its power production units, and
energy conversion technologies delivering There is a burgeoning literature on energy
“useful energy,” as well as of the distribution transitions, drawing upon several social-
and consumption sectors. Typically these studies scientific disciplines, history, and the study of
employ simulation methodologies to yield innovations, concentrating particularly on
optimization results or “best possible results.” technological change within society. It adds a
Such results seek to balance quantifiable social dimension to the insights of technolog-
outcome variables, for example, the costs and ical, infrastructural, and economics studies.
competitiveness of different technological solu- The “socio-technical” studies do not explicitly
tions, with their capacity to meet the expected address electrification, but rather diverse topics
demand, cater for the security of supply, and within the remit of “sustainability transitions”
limit emissions. Macro-economic modeling for or transitions to renewable energy (Hess, 2014;
its part focuses on how the aggregate flows of Kern and Markard, 2016). Yet their merit here
energy goods from the different production units is how they reiterate the significance of the con-
are connected to taxation, prices, incomes, and sumption phase of the system and more broadly
other interactions among economic actors in the involvement of society in the transition
the markets (Rodrigues et al., 2011). (Geels, 2002; Kivimaa et al., 2019).
This is all necessary information prior to mak- To become desirable and eventually adopted,
ing technology choices or investment decisions, new solutions require a societal debate with
but does not alone suffice for the purposes of positive messages on how these solutions can
accelerated transition. That is, these literatures become part of everyday life in order to equip
are not intended to conceptualize the associated everyone to contribute to the transition. Such a
innovation mechanisms, inertia within society, message stands in contrast to scenarios of
or how, why, and under what conditions actors unavoidable climate change disaster where
would make the required political decisions only large-scale technological measures and
which for their own part crucially frame invest- major emission cuts matter. Disseminating a
ment decisions. The political decisions are of positive message requires an awareness of
paramount importance as market logic alone is cultural perceptions and knowledge of social
unlikely to deliver sufficiently accelerated transi- behavior alongside more technical user engage-
tion (see Chapter 3). Moreover, within actual so- ment. For example, in the transport sector, it is
cietal contexts, “second-best” choices are usually relevant how interest in acquiring a driving li-
realistic, anticipating the institutional constraints cense or ownership of private vehicles may be

dwindling among young people in some devel- property owners, cooperatives, and physical as
oped countries, and what kind of consumer well as virtual energy communities, which may
decisions they may make if given access to benefit from renewable energy installations on
information on the GHG footprint of products buildings, farms, and fields (see Chapter 9).
and services (see Kanger and Schot, 2019, pp.
63e4). In brief, accelerated electrification entails
treating people not only as economic rationally
1.4.2 The meso-level
behaving consumers, but as active agents of Niche actors seek to challenge and eventually
change in multiple roles (see Chapter 9). Ulti- replace the incumbent actors such as energy
mately, the research agenda extends to routines, utilities with existing investments in the fossil
social practices, and norms (e.g., Strengers, fuel or nuclear power sectors (Geels, 2004). The
2013; Yamaguchi, 2019). However, not all cluster of incumbent actors, or what the socio-
responsibility for making the choices for climate technical literature calls the socio-technical regime,
neutrality can be delegated to individuals consists of (a) networks of actors and social
(Stevenson, 2018). groups, which in the case of the electric energy
Here, for analytical purposes, we can discern system consist of utility companies providing
three levels of transition: the micro-, meso-, and power (heat and increasingly in some places
macro-levels, as commonly presented in the cooling); government ministries in charge of
context of the so-called multilevel perspective energy questions, local governments, regulators
(Geels, 2002). Since then, several literatures and public sector agencies, and large industrial
have further developed this research agenda. energy users. The regime also includes (b) the
formal rules such as regulations and standards,
which for their part are interlinked with informal
1.4.1 The micro-level
or normative and cognitive rules such as belief
On this level we find that not only is the systems and behavioral norms and practices,
energy consumption and future behavior of users working as a social glue as noted in the institu-
and consumers becoming vital, since an acceler- tional literature (Aalto, 2014; Andrews-Speed,
ated transition is not possible by concentrating 2016). Finally, the regime comprises (c) the tech-
solely on production side technologies. There is nologies and infrastructures including resources
the activism of consumer-producers (prosumers) and the networks of TSOs and DSOs (Verbong
with small-scale production, for example, via and Geels, 2007). Several types of regime are
solar PV panels, and resource providers offering, discernible in electrification: the energy regime
for example, the batteries of their EVs for with its own actors, rules, and technologies; the
the use of the electric energy network (see transport regime with a view to EVs, a wider
Chapters 7e9). Early adopters of new solutions industry regime vis-a-vis the industry’s electrifi-
are the targets of those who develop new cation, and the building regime in relation to the
solutions in the niches of innovation (Schot and electrification of residential, commercial, and
Geels, 2008; Verbong and Geels, 2007). The public sector buildings (Kotilainen et al., 2019;
strategic niche management studies elucidate see Chapters 4e9).
how innovative niche actorsdscientists, agencies, To fully analyze the meso-level, socio-
institutes, companies including start-ups, equip- technical studies frequently draw upon institu-
ment manufacturers, service providers, consul- tional literature, originally developed in the field
tancies, etc.dcan respond to the global of political economy and today widely applied
transition pressures by developing new solutions. in several economic organization studies
Furthermore, the micro-level includes land and and policy disciplines. Institutionalism helps to

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their success do not rue the preference they will give to that Catiline.’[1901]
Fighting desperately, Hamilton looked clear-eyed upon the repudiation of
his leadership of the party into which he had breathed the breath of life and
given the dignity of power by the prestige of his genius. Among his friends
he made no secret of his depression, admitting to them that his ‘influence
with the federal party was wholly gone’ and that he ‘could no longer be
useful.’[1902] Had he created a Frankenstein to destroy not only himself but
his policies and country? he wondered.
All through that month there was only serenity at Conrad’s boarding-
house in Washington. Thoroughly informed of every move made by the
enemy, Jefferson discussed the situation in the evenings with Gallatin, the
Nicholases, and General Smith. Such was his imperturbable temperament
that in the midst of the intense excitement he was able to write to one friend
of a meteorological diary from Quebec, and to another on a similar one
from Natchez.[1903] His cause was in the keeping of Gallatin, who was
quietly checking up on all members of the House, closing his own ranks,
preparing for every possible contingency, and concluding that ‘the intention
of the desperate leaders must be absolute usurpation and the overthrow of
our Constitution.’[1904] Thus January passed, and February came with its
fateful possibilities.
IV
As the time for the contest approached, the village capital overflowed
with visitors of stern visage. The boarding-houses packed with members of
Congress, these onlookers found lodgment in Georgetown and in
Alexandria. Notwithstanding the bitterness of the fight there was no trouble
—due to stern repression. A little spark would have caused an explosion.
The American people had determined on Jefferson, and it was no longer a
secret that forces were at work to defeat the public will. Some of the
Federalist papers deprecated the attempt to elect Burr with Federalist votes.
The New York ‘Commercial Advertiser’ made vigorous protest in
denunciation of the conspirators. ‘They are now taking the ground which
the Democrats have occupied and descending to the baseness of supporting
their cause by railing, abuse and scurrility. Nothing can be less politic or
honorable. It is the duty of good citizens to acquiesce in the election and be
tranquil. It is proper that Mr. Jefferson should be made Chief
Magistrate.’[1905] The same note was struck by the New York ‘Gazette.’
‘Many advocate the support of Mr. Burr,’ it said. ‘In matters of such
importance it is idle to suffer our passions to get the better of our reason;
and in statesmanship it would be particularly culpable from such puerile
motives to risk the welfare of the nation.... Bad as both these men [Jefferson
and Burr] are, there is no comparison between them.’[1906] But the organ of
the Essex Junto was openly advocating Burr’s election. The ‘Centinel’ of
Boston teemed with Burr propaganda. ‘The people of New England have
yet faith to believe that a good tree cannot bring forth bad fruit, nor vice
versa,’ it said. ‘They think the stock from which Mr. Jefferson has sprung to
be bad because his works are known to be so; and ... that whatever Mr. Burr
may be reported to be he will eventually turn out good; as he is the
grandson of the dignified Edwards, the great American luminary of
Divinity, and a son of President Burr who was also a burning and shining
light in the churches.’[1907] At times it fell into verse:
‘Stop ere your civic feasts begin;
Wait till the votes are all come in;
Perchance amidst this mighty stir
Your monarch may be Colonel Burr.’[1908]
A correspondent from Washington was quoted approvingly on the plan to

support Burr—‘the expediency of which course is so palpable to common
sense ... that I am astonished any Federal man should hesitate upon the
subject.’[1909] And the ‘Centinel’ expressed the hope that it would be able
‘by Saturday next to announce either that the people will have another
opportunity to elect a Federal President; or that the House, rejecting a
theoretical and experimental philosopher, will prefer, as a very respectable
member of Congress describes Mr. Burr, “a practical gentleman who will
have judgment, taste and genius enough to appreciate the usefulness of our
federal fabric, and nerve enough to preserve its integrity.” ’[1910]
There was no longer any doubt that the Federalist hot-heads were ready
for usurpation and revolutionary measures. It was known to every Democrat
of any consequence in the country. Gallatin, counting noses, had no fear of
desertions from the Jeffersonian ranks. The real danger, as the little
conclave at Conrad’s saw it, was the prevention of an election, and Gallatin
was certain that, to prevent this calamity, a Federalist from Maryland and
Morris of Vermont would go over to Jefferson. A plan to meet this
contingency was drawn up by Gallatin and accepted by the chief. More
sinister still was the threat, commonly heard, that should the Federalists
succeed in preventing an election, they would pass a law placing the
Presidency in the hands of Marshall or some other official. This the
Democrats were prepared to resist by physical force. To prevent this
usurpation, the Jeffersonians notified Governor M’Kean of Pennsylvania
and Governor Monroe of Virginia, who were prepared to march troops
instantly upon the capital ‘for the purpose, not of promoting, but of
preventing revolution and the shedding of a single drop of blood.’[1911] A
careful survey convinced Gallatin that this scheme of usurpation would not
have mustered more than twenty votes among the Federalist members. Only
Henry Lee, ‘a desperate character,’ and Roger Griswold of Connecticut, a
bigot, appeared to Gallatin to be really favorable to such a monstrous
measure. Even so the rumor spread, and it was said that fifteen hundred
men in Virginia and Maryland had agreed in the event a usurper were
placed in the Presidency to move on Washington to assassinate him.[1912]
Jefferson had other plans in view, which he conveyed only to Madison
and Monroe—to call a convention to reorganize the Government and amend
the Constitution, but he concealed this from Gallatin.[1913] The Gallatin
plan, with its military feature, leaked out, causing some uneasiness among
the conspirators, who proceeded, however, with their plans. The ‘Centinel’
boasted that Federalists had no fear of Southern and Western fighters. ‘Our
General [Burr] if called upon can assure them that he has seen southern
regiments in former times and knows what they are composed of.[1914]
Meanwhile the Federalists proceeded with their plans. Burr, concealing
himself in Albany, was maintaining a discreet silence, and on February 1st,
Jefferson wrote him a letter. At no time had he any confidence in Burr’s
political honesty or reliability. During the two Federalist Administrations he
had observed that, whenever a great military or diplomatic appointment was
to be made, Burr had hurried to Philadelphia and was ‘always at market if
they wanted him.’ Jefferson had thought it wise to remain rather distant.
[1915] But he was too sagacious to reveal his distrust at this juncture. He had
no thought of giving Burr any excuse for treachery, and enemies had been
busy with a forged letter bearing Jefferson’s signature setting forth
uncomplimentary opinions. He wrote to call attention to the forgery and
denounce it. ‘It was to be expected,’ he wrote, ‘that the enemy would
endeavor to sow tares between us that they might divide us and our friends.’
If the letter was ever answered, the reply has been lost.
On the day Jefferson sat in his room at Conrad’s writing Burr,
Gouverneur Morris’s morning slumber was interrupted by two visitors who
wished to discuss with him the organization of Burr’s Administration.
‘Laughable enough under the circumstances which now exist,’ chuckled the
cynic.[1916] Two days later, still serene, Jefferson was writing Dr. Caspar
Wistar of some bones recently discovered which the Doctor wished for the
museum. The candidate had taken the trouble to write Chancellor
Livingston, and the reply was inspired by the latter’s letter in answer. With
the village capital crowded, with talk of revolution, usurpation,
assassination, he wrote at length. Perhaps it would be better to ask only for
the bones missing from the museum’s collection, as the town where they
were found would probably be loath to part with them at all. Even then the
philosopher and scientist was not wholly lost in the politician.[1917]
In New York, Hamilton, having gone his limit, was no longer writing
letters. The indifference of his erstwhile followers had left him depressed
and bitter. Then, one day at the Tontine Coffee-House, he had an
opportunity to renew his warning in the most dramatic manner. Wolcott had
resigned from the Cabinet, his treachery still unsuspected by Adams, to be
wined and dined by the Federalist members of Congress in Washington, and
toasted by the merchants of Philadelphia and New York. After the regular
toasts had been given at the Tontine and volunteers were in order, Hamilton
rose, and in his most impressive manner proposed: ‘May our government
never fall a prey to the dreams of a Condorcet nor the vices of a
Catiline.’[1918] ‘The vices of a Catiline’ was the one expression
remembered by the diners as they poured out into the streets.
The next day the balloting was to begin. On the day of the dinner at the
Tontine the ‘Commercial Advertiser’ predicted the election of Burr on the
second ballot; and that same day Representative William Cooper was
writing a friend of the determination of the Federalists ‘to run Burr
perseveringly’ and to ‘leave the consequences to those who have hitherto
been his friends.’[1919] At Conrad’s boarding-house all was serene.
In a blinding snowstorm the lawmakers and spectators fought their way

to the Capitol on Wednesday morning, the 11th. Nature spread a white
mantle over the crudities of the village as though to dress it becomingly for
the great day. The great plain between the foot of the hill and the river was
covered with a spotless sheet, and even the shop of the shoemaker and the
home of the washwoman took on the appearance of beauty. No one minded
the storm, not even Joseph H. Nicholson of Maryland, who, though
bedridden with fever, insisted on being carried through the storm to cast his
ballot for Jefferson. The electoral votes being counted in a joint session of
the two houses, the members of the House retired to their own chamber to
elect a President. The crowded gallery was ordered cleared. The visitors,
grumbling loudly, filed out into the corridors. When Samuel Harrison
Smith, editor of the ‘National Intelligencer,’ who had established his paper
in the capital on the advice of Jefferson, insisted on remaining, he was
angrily ordered out by Theodore Sedgwick, the Speaker. Arrangements
were thereupon made by the Jeffersonians to keep Smith informed hourly of
the fortunes of the fight. In a committee room off the chamber lay
Nicholson on a bed, burning with fever, an anxious wife at his side to give
him water and medicine. Even the conspirators could not restrain their
admiration. ‘It is a chance that this kills him,’ wrote Otis. ‘I would not thus
expose myself for any President on earth.’[1920] The stricken Democrat was
not there, however, against the wishes of his wife, who had the fighting
spirit of a Spartan woman.
The first ballot found Jefferson with eight States—Burr with six—nine
necessary to a choice. Another ballot immediately—the same result. A
third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh—no change. As each ballot was taken, a
teller from Maryland entered the little committee room where Nicholson lay
fighting the fever, his head supported by the arm of his wife. He was
awakened from his fitful sleep, a pencil was put in his trembling fingers,
and with his wife’s aid in guiding the pencil the name of Jefferson was
written. The pencil fell from his hand—he slept again.[1921] At the end of
the eighth ballot a motion to vote again in an hour prevailed. There was
little electioneering—men’s minds were made up. Only a buzz of
conversation, some laughter.
The ninth ballot, the tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth,
fifteenth ballots—and no change. Darkness had long since fallen on snow-
covered Washington. Bed-clothing, blankets, pillows, had been brought in.
The Federalists had determined to hold on without adjournment. At nine
o’clock the sixteenth ballot brought no change. At ten o’clock the
seventeenth, at eleven the eighteenth—and no change. The motion was
made to adjourn until Thursday, only to be voted down. At midnight the
nineteenth ballot was taken, with the lines unbroken. By this time the
members were slipping off to cloak and committee rooms between ballots
to sleep, and some slept in their chairs. As a ballot was called, it was
‘ludicrous to see them running from committee rooms with night caps
on.’[1922] The crowd in the corridors dwindled, a few stubbornly held on.
Every hour a messenger waded laboriously through the heavy snow to the
home of the editor of ‘The Intelligencer’ with the results. No sleep in that
house that night. When the knock at the door was heard, the editor’s wife,
her heart beating audibly, as she thought, could scarcely open to receive the
paper.[1923]
At one o’clock another ballot—then at two. Nature was beginning to
claim its toll when it was agreed not to vote again until four o’clock. After
that the ballots were taken hourly throughout the night. When the twenty-
seventh ballot was taken at eight o’clock and the motion was made to vote
no more until noon, there were no protests. The vote at noon found the
opposing lines unbroken. The House adjourned until eleven o’clock on
Friday—the next day.
Friday: larger crowds about the Capitol. Nicholson still on his bed.
When the twenty-ninth ballot showed no change, an adjournment was taken
until noon on Saturday.
Meanwhile the participants in the struggle were sending out meager
reports on the results. While the first ballots were being taken on
Wednesday, Jefferson had written Tench Coxe: ‘For some time since, a
single individual has said he would by his vote make up the ninth State. On
Saturday last he changed, and it stands at present eight one way, six the
other, and two divided. Which of the two will be elected, and whether
either, I deem perfectly problematical; and my mind has long since been
equally made up for either of the three events.’[1924] Otis, writing his wife,
was more interested in the scene at the sick bed than in conjectures.[1925]
Gallatin wrote Mrs. Gallatin of the results without comment, other than that
he had slept from eight o’clock until noon on Thursday morning.[1926]
Saturday found the lines still holding, but with the conspirators subjected to
a heavy and disturbing fire from outside. An imposing petition from
Federalists in Maryland had been sent John Chew Thomas declaring that
two thirds of his constituents favored Jefferson. Gallatin did ‘not know what
effect they would have.’[1927] and the thing that worried the Federalists was
that they knew no better. Some of these were finding the backfire
distressing. Others were openly disgusted with Burr. ‘Had Burr done
anything for himself, he would long ere this have been President,’ wrote
Cooper of New York.[1928] It was clearly time to push the contest. Thus, on
Saturday three ballots were taken without results, and the House adjourned
until noon Monday.
Meanwhile, Jefferson, presiding over the Senate, surrounded by hatred
and excitement, presented an unruffled front, an untouched temper. From
time to time he could hear the angry discussions of his enemies, but he
made no sign. His impartiality was beyond question. ‘A spectator,’ wrote a
contemporary, ‘who watched his countenance would never have surmised
that he had any personal interest in the impending event.’[1929] From the
Capitol he walked like one unconcerned back to Conrad’s, enjoying the
snow. Some of the politicians sought to wring concessions from him to gain
support, but he was adamant. General Sam Smith, without his authority or
knowledge, entered into a negotiation, which had no effect beyond
furnishing the groundwork for the charge of his enemies in history that he
had made arrangements. As far as we know he was openly approached by
but one—and he was acting on the suggestion of Alexander Hamilton.
One day, as Jefferson was descending the steps of the Capitol, he met
Gouverneur Morris and they paused to exchange compliments. Differing as
widely as the poles, they had enjoyed their social contacts in Paris. The
conversation turned naturally to the contest, and Morris observed,
significantly, that the opposition to Jefferson’s election on the part of some
was the fear that he would turn all Federalists out of office, put down the
navy, and wipe out the debt. All that was necessary to his election was the
assurance that none of these steps would be taken. ‘I must leave the world
to judge the course I mean to pursue by that which I have pursued hitherto,’
Jefferson replied. ‘I believe it my duty to be passive and silent during the
present contest. I shall certainly make no terms, and shall never go into the
office of President by capitulation, nor with my hands tied by any
conditions which will hinder me from pursuing the measures which I shall
deem for the public good.’ The two parted in the best of feeling.
The crisis was now approaching. Public sentiment was asserting itself
unmistakably, and statesmen could hear afar off the cracking of the whips.
The Jeffersonians would clearly not budge. Even Nicholson was recovering
instead of sinking under the exposure and excitement. The Federalists in
their caucuses were breaking up after stormy meetings. It was agreed that
nothing was left but desperate measures, and, while but few urged their
adoption, few openly disapproved. Burr was an ever-increasing torment.
Only his coöperation was needed, said Bayard afterward, to have won. ‘By
deceiving one man (a great blockhead) and tempting two (not
incorruptible), he might have secured a majority of the States.’[1930] But
Burr was in Albany, silent as the sphinx and inactive as a mummy.
Over Sunday the leaders caucused and cursed. When the House met on
Monday, Gallatin understood that Bayard was going to vote for Jefferson
and end the fight. But on the one ballot taken on Monday, he remained with
Burr. ‘But it is supposed,’ wrote Gallatin to his father-in-law, ‘that the cause
of delay is to make an attempt on his party and some others to prevail on
the whole Federal party to come over.’[1931]
The conferences continued on Monday and by night a decision had been
reached. Nothing could be gained by fighting for a man who would not
fight. The public was in an ugly mood. Hamilton’s friends, like Bayard,
were feeling a little ashamed of themselves. On Tuesday a crowd was
packed in the corridors of the Capitol and in front of the building. Weary
men in petulant mood pushed their way through these farmers, mechanics,
and politicians to the House. A vote was immediately taken. Morris,
Federalist from Vermont, withdrew, permitting Matthew Lyon to cast the
vote of the State for Jefferson. The Maryland Federalists cast blank ballots
—permitting the Democrats to put their State in the Jefferson column.
Bayard, after much meandering, finally satisfied Hamilton by casting a
blank, which, being the only vote to which his State was entitled, left
Delaware out entirely. And Theodore Sedgwick, in a rage, was forced
formally to announce the election of Thomas Jefferson. The throng in the
corridors and in front of the Capitol gave way to noisy rejoicing, and the
conspirators hurried to their lodgings to escape the scowls of the populace.
VI
While most of them hurried home, three members of the House,

including two of the vanquished, with Thomas Pinckney as spokesman,
made their way with many jests, we may be sure, up the slushy Avenue,
between the frog ponds, to the President’s house to notify John Adams that
his successor had been chosen. No record of their reception remains, but the
imagination can supply the want. Nor is there any record that Adams sent a
note of congratulation to the victor. Those were the days when ‘The Duke
of Braintree’s’ morbid vanity was suffering keenly the flings of outrageous
fortune.
Two days later, the same committee formally notified Jefferson of his
election and was asked to convey a gracious response to the House.[1932]
Meanwhile, unflurried and unhurried, he went his way, appearing in the
Senate, as usual to preside, and continuing to occupy the foot of the table at
Conrad’s boarding-house. He had long since determined upon Madison for
the head of the Cabinet and Gallatin for the Treasury, gigantic figures
compared with those who had occupied these posts after Jefferson and
Hamilton had left them in the days of Washington. The other positions were
filled during the two weeks intervening between the election and the
inauguration.
On Saturday before his inauguration on Wednesday, Jefferson appeared
for the last time in the Senate to withdraw from his post there in a farewell
address. There before him sat men who hated him venomously, but the
suave, serene victor took leave as though departing with sorrow from a
cherished circle of congenial souls. Mistakes he had probably made, but he
had sought to ‘observe impartial justice,’ and his measurable success had
been due to the generosity and uniform courtesy of the members. Could he
but carry to his new station such support as he had received from the
Senate, he would ‘consider it as commencing under the happiest auspices.’
In tendering his ‘cordial and respectful adieux,’ he wished for all both
health and happiness. With a courtly bow he descended from the rostrum,
and passed out of the chamber.
On Monday, Gouverneur Morris, chairman of the committee named to
make response, reported an answer matching the courtliness of Jefferson’s
farewell. It lamented ‘the loss of that intelligence, attention, and
impartiality’ with which Jefferson had presided, and expressed appreciation
of the kindly expressions on the Senate. Then, as Morris proceeded, there
was a savage wagging of heads among the die-hards, as he read: ‘In the
confidence that your official conduct will be directed to those great objects
[the honor and interests of the country]—a confidence derived from past
events, we repeat to you, sir, the assurance of our Constitutional support in
your future administration.’ Instantly an irreconcilable was on his feet with
a motion to strike out the words, ‘derived from past events.’ The roll was
called. The motion was lost by a vote of 9 to 19. The intolerant Tracy and
Ross voted with the nine, but Morris carried some of his party with him.
[1933] The next day Morris reported Jefferson’s reply—a gesture of
appreciation.
As the day of the inauguration approached, great crowds began to pour
into the drab little capital from the surrounding country. In the President’s
house and in the Senate there was feverish activity. Early in the session, the
Federalists, realizing that their power was over in the executive and
legislative branches, sought to maintain themselves and provide for their
favorites through the creation of many Federal judgeships. The purpose was
transparent. The Democrats had fought the measure without avail. All that
now remained was for Adams to pack the courts with partisans as narrow
and intolerant as those who had for ten years been delivering common party
harangues from the Bench. With the joyous visitors wading the muddy
streets in holiday mood, with Jefferson closeted with his friends at
Conrad’s, the Senate was busy confirming these partisan Judges, and in the
Executive Department they were busy signing the commissions. Night
came—and John Marshall remained in his office making them out.
To this drama of hate, Adams gave a touch of irony in selecting the
beneficiaries of his generosity. Wolcott had left him but a little while before.
Through four years he had played the game of Adams’s enemies, presenting
all the while a smiling countenance to his chief. We have seen him lingering
on in the citadel after Pickering and McHenry had been thrown from the
battlements, to wig-wag secret messages to the enemy in New York. But
Adams had suspected nothing. Moved by an impulse of gratitude, he
offered Wolcott a life position on the Bench, and that consummate actor,
smiling still, sent the assurance that ‘gratitude to benefactors is among the
most amiable ... of social obligations,’[1934] and accepted. There is
something of pathos to the Adams of the sunset. Something of pathos and
inspiration, too—for, to the disgust of the inner circle of his party, he made
John Marshall Chief Justice of the United States, and thus, unwittingly,
saved the better part of Federalism from the wreckage of the temple, to
fight on through many years to come.
VII
The morning of inauguration day found the entire nation marching in the
streets, exultant Democrats following the fife and drum, singing and
shouting hosannas. Merchants locked their doors, mechanics left their
work-benches, clerks laid down their pens, farmers deserted their homes for
the towns, and from Boston to Savannah men and women celebrated with
an enthusiasm not approached since the celebration of the peace in 1783.
In Washington, the thunder of artillery ushered in the day. As it shook
the heavens, an embittered old man with a sour countenance sat far back in
his coach as it bumped and splashed its way through the mire and over the
stumps of the Baltimore road, for at four o’clock in the morning John
Adams had slipped out of the house of the Presidents and hurried away,
rather than remain to extend the ordinary courtesies to his successor. ‘You
have no idea,’ wrote Gallatin to his wife, ‘of the meanness, indecency,
almost insanity of his conduct, especially of late. But he is fallen and not
dangerous. Let him be forgotten.’[1935] Somewhere in hiding, or in flight,
was Theodore Sedgwick, Speaker of the House, who could not bear to
witness the triumph of a foe.
That morning Jefferson remained quietly at Conrad’s, receiving friends.
As he entered the dining-room for breakfast, the wife of Senator Brown
rose impulsively and offered him her seat. With an appreciative smile he
declined and sat down as usual at the end of the table near the door.[1936]
At ten o’clock there was a flurry among the men, women, and children
standing reverently in front of Jefferson’s lodgings, when, with a swinging
stride, companies of riflemen and artillery from Alexandria paraded before
the boarding-house. At noon, dressed plainly, with nothing to indicate the
dignity of his position, Jefferson stepped out of Conrad’s, accompanied by
citizens and members of Congress, and walked to the Capitol. As he passed
the threshold, there was a thunder of artillery. When he entered the little
Senate Chamber, the Senators and Representatives rose, and Aaron Burr,
now Vice-President, left his seat—all standing until Jefferson sat down in
the chair he had occupied until a week before. On his right hand, Burr; on
his left, Marshall. Only a little while, and Burr, arrested for treason at the
instigation of Jefferson, would be tried by Marshall at Richmond.
After a moment, Jefferson rose and read a conciliatory address, in a tone
scarcely audible in the tiny room.[1937] ‘We are all Republicans; we are all
Federalists. If there be any among us who would wish to dissolve this
Union, or to change its Republican form, let them stand undisturbed as
monuments of the safety with which error of opinion may be tolerated
where reason is left free to combat it.’ As he concluded, he turned to
Marshall, his Hamilton of the future. The Chief Justice administered the
oath. It was over. The festivities of ‘83 had celebrated the achievement of
the right of the American people to form their own government and make
their own laws. The roar of artillery as the new President emerged from the
Capitol meant that the real American Revolution had triumphed, and
definitely determined that this should be a democratic republic.
In the streets and public-houses that afternoon there was rejoicing,
shouting, singing, laughing, drinking. Even the more tolerant of the
vanquished fraternized with the victors, and the wife of the editor of the
Jeffersonian organ[1938] poured tea for Gouverneur Morris, Jonathan
Dayton, and James A. Bayard. For the moment ‘all were Republicans, all
were Federalists.’ That night Washington saw its first illumination.
Lumbering along the wretched mud roads in his coach rode Adams, the
reverberations of the artillery peal of the morning still hammering on his
nerves, meditating bitterly on the treachery of men.... Somewhere in hiding,
Sedgwick—cursing the fates.... And somewhere in New York, Alexander
Hamilton was tasting the bitter fruits of the victory he had fought to win for
his greatest opponent. From his window he could see the marching men and
he could hear the pæans of triumph. The brilliant party he had moulded was
in ruins—his leadership scorned by the crawling creatures who had shone
only in the reflected light of his brilliance. He was alone—isolated.... A
little while and he would write Morris, ‘What can I do better than withdraw
from the scene? Every day proves to me more and more that this American
world was not made for me.’[1939] ... A few months, and he would be
describing himself as a ‘disappointed politician’ in a letter to Pinckney
requesting melon seeds for his garden and parroquets for his daughter.[1940]
... Four years—and before Burr’s pistol he would fall on the banks of the
Hudson one tragic summer morning.... Some years more, and a visitor to
the home of the retired sage of Monticello would see in the hall a marble
bust of Hamilton—the tribute of one great man to another.
The eighteenth century witnessed their Plutarchian battles; the twentieth
century uncovers at the graves at Monticello and in Trinity Churchyard—
but the spirits of Jefferson and Hamilton still stalk the ways of men—still
fighting.
THE END
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