December 16 – December 31

CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations).………………………………………......3

Americas……………………………………………………………………….6
Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………12
China and East Asia………………………………………………………….16
Europe…………………………………………………………………….......20
Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………….23
Middle East & West Asia……………………………………………………26
South Asia (I)…………………………………………………………………34
South Asia (II)………………………………………………………………..38
United Nations…………..................................................................................43

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 Area Briefs: 16-31 December, 2019

General Observations
Pakistan

• On December 26, Prime Minister Imran Khan warned that India would “definitely conduct
an action of some sort” in Pakistan’s part of Kashmir to divert international attention from
IOK and other domestic issues resulting from the introduction of anti-Muslim Citizenship
(Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA). Khan was responding to Indian Army Chief, General
Bipin Rawat’s December 18, 2019 statement that the situation along the LoC could
“escalate any time.”

• Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud visited Islamabad on December
26, 2019, and met with Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Saud conveyed Saudi
Arabia’s plans to convene a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of member states of the
Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to discuss the situation in Indian Occupied
Kashmir (IOK). His visit came in the wake of Pakistan’s decision to not participate in the
Kuala Lumpur summit. Earlier on December 17, the Foreign Office announced that
Pakistan would not participate in the Kuala Lumpur summit to be held in Malaysia from
December 18 to 21, 2019. Many criticised the government’s decision to not participate in
the summit despite Malaysia’s and Turkey’s strong support to Pakistan on the issue of
Kashmir and also the OIC’s inability to take strong stance on Muslim causes.

• A Special Court in Pakistan found former President and Army Chief, General (R) Pervez
Musharraf guilty of high treason and sentenced him to death on December 17. In the 167-
page long judgement authored by Peshawar High Court Chief Justice Waqar Ahmad Seth,
the court said the convict should be hanged even if he dies before his execution. Pakistan’s
Military said the ruling had caused “pain and anguish” in the ranks.

• According to the ISPR on December 26, two Pakistan Army soldiers were killed in
ceasefire violations by the Indian troops along the Line of Control (LoC) in Dewa Sector,
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

International

• On December 17, the UNSC postponed a special meeting on occupied Kashmir to discuss
the situation in the disputed region. China had requested the closed-door meeting.
However, it was postponed after France opposed the move. French diplomatic sources

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 noted, “Our position has been very clear. The Kashmir issue has to be treated bilaterally
(between India and Pakistan). We have highlighted this several times.”

• According to Aljazeera on December 27, at least 27 people have been killed in the wake
of the ongoing protests against the anti-Muslim Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019
(CAA). Many have criticised India’s new citizenship law saying it aims to marginalise
Muslims and turn India into a homeland for Hindus. According to an NY Times editorial
“The law, as India’s 200 million Muslims have correctly surmised, has nothing to do with
helping migrants and everything to do with the campaign by PM Modi and his Home
Minister, Amit Shah, to marginalise Muslims and turn India into a homeland for Hindus,
who comprise about 80 % of the population of 1.3 billion.”

• Although the results are not final and the outcome could take months to finalise, the
Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC) announced on December 22, that
President Ashraf Ghani earned 50.64% of votes to lead the preliminary results of the 2019
presidential election.

• On December 19, UK lawmakers passed the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement Bill)
by 358 to 234 votes.

• From December 18 to 21, Malaysia hosted the Kuala Lumpur Summit (KL Summit) 2019.
Representatives and leaders from over 20 Muslim countries participated in the summit.
MoUs were signed between government agencies and companies, covering areas such as
youth exchange, food security, media collaboration, defence and security. Addressing the
summit on December 19, 2019, Malaysian Prime Minister said that the convening of the
Kuala Lumpur Summit 2019 was not meant to discriminate against or isolate anyone, but
was an attempt to seek ways to address the problems facing the Muslim community.

• On December 27, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that Russia had deployed
Avangard, its nuclear capable hypersonic weapon, capable of evading the US missile
defence systems. Earlier on December 17, 2019, Lockheed Martin awarded Aerojet
Rocketdyne a contract worth $81.5 million for hypersonic missile motor, meant for the US
Air Force.

• On December 20 President Trump signed the 2020 National Defence Authorisation Act
(NDAA), that included the Space Force, and directed the establishment of the US Space
Force (USSF) as the sixth branch of the armed forces.

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• On December 29, President Donald Trump faced calls from his own party to show more
restraint on Twitter as the White House faced criticism over the president revealing the
name of a man widely thought to be the whistle-blower who triggered his impeachment.

• On December 18, the US House of Representatives impeached President Donald formally

charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The impeachment sets the
stage for a trial in January 2020 in the Republican-controlled Senate on whether to convict
and remove him from office.

• On December 28, an intruder stabbed and wounded five people at a rabbi’s house in a New
York suburb, in an incident the state governor called “an act of terrorism.”
---Amina Afzal

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 AMERICAS

Domestic

• On December 29, President Donald Trump faced calls from his own party to show more
restraint on Twitter as the White House faced a storm of outrage day over the president
revealing the name of a man widely thought to be the whistle-blower who triggered his
impeachment.

• On December 18, the House of Representatives impeached President Donald Trump on

both articles of impeachment: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The vote
followed weeks of testimony related to his dealings with Ukraine and hours of fiery
debate over the process.

The House of Representatives formally charged President Trump with abuse of power and
obstruction of Congress. The Democratic-led House’s passage of two articles of impeachment on
a mostly party line vote sets the stage for a trial in January 2020 in the Republican-controlled
Senate on whether to convict and remove him from office. The Senate’s top Republican, Mitch
McConnell, has predicted there is “no chance” his chamber will remove Trump when it holds its
trial. President Trump is accused of abusing his power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate
political rival Joe Biden, a leading contender for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination,
as well as a discredited theory that Democrats conspired with Ukraine to meddle in the 2016
election. Democrats said Trump held back $391 million in security aid intended to combat
Russia-backed separatists and a coveted White House meeting for Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky as leverage to coerce Kiev into interfering in the 2020 election by smearing
Biden. The second article accused Trump of obstruction of Congress by directing Administration
officials and agencies not to comply with lawful House subpoenas for testimony and documents
related to impeachment.

Trump has faced growing criticism since re-tweeting an attack that included the name of the
reported CIA staffer at the heart of the Ukraine scandal, an act that could violate the whistle-
blower’s guaranteed anonymity under the law. Republican Senator John Kennedy, a key Trump
ally, said, “If the President would tweet a little bit less, it wouldn’t cause brain damage. But the
President does not have to take my advice, nor do I expect him to.”

In a related development on December 24, 2019, President Donald Trump lashed out as his
Senate impeachment trial remains at an impasse, with Republican and Democratic leaders at
odds over its format and whether witnesses should be called. Speaking at his private club in
Palm Beach, Florida, after a teleconference call with troops stationed across the globe, Trump
singled out Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is indefinitely holding up sending the articles of
impeachment the House passed to the Republican-controlled Senate. Trump said, “She hates the

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Republican Party. She hates all of the people that voted for me and the Republican Party. She’s
doing a tremendous disservice to the country.” Trump has long seen a Senate trial, where he is
almost certain to be acquitted, as an opportunity for vindication after he became the third
President in the nation’s history to be impeached by the House. Meanwhile the Senate’s top
Democrat, Chuck Schumer of New York, has countered that any trial without witnesses would be
“Kafkaesque” and a “sham”. He said, “Let’s put it like this: If there are no documents and no
witnesses, it will be very hard to come to an agreement.” Schumer is demanding witnesses who
refused to appear during House committee hearings, including acting White House chief of staff
Mick Mulvaney and former national security adviser John Bolton.

• According to emails released by the Pentagon on December 20, about 90 minutes after
President Donald Trump held a controversial telephone call with President Volodymyr
Zelensky of Ukraine in July 2019, the White House budget office ordered the Pentagon to
suspend all military aid that Congress had allocated to Ukraine.

A budget official, Michael Duffey, also told the Pentagon to keep quiet about the aid freeze
because of the “sensitive nature of the request,” according to a message dated July 25, 2019. An
earlier email that Duffey sent to the Pentagon comptroller suggested that Trump began asking
aides about $250 million in military aid set aside for Ukraine after noticing a June 19, 2019,
article about it in the Washington Examiner. The emails add to publicly available information
about the events that prompted the Democratic-led House to call for Trump to be removed from
office.

• On December 28, an intruder stabbed and wounded five people at a rabbi’s house in a
New York suburb, in an incident the state governor said was “an act of terrorism” after a
spate of attacks on Jewish targets.

Local media reported that a man with a machete entered the rabbi`s property in Monsey,
Rockland County, during celebrations for the Jewish festival of Hanukkah, knifing several people
before fleeing. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said, “This is an act of terrorism. I think
these are domestic terrorists. They are trying to inflict fear. They’re motivated by hate. They are
doing mass attacks. These are terrorists in our country perpetrating terrorism on other
Americans, and that’s how we should treat it. In response to the recent surge in hate-crimes in
New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio had announced on December 27, 2019, that the NYPD was
stepping up patrols in three neighbourhoods and increasing the number of visits to places of
worship. Following the latest attack, the mayor also tweeted that he has recently spoken to long-
time Jewish friends who are fearful of outwardly showing their faith.

• According to The New York Times on December 27, a Navy SEAL platoon leader, Eddie
Gallagher, controversially pardoned of war crimes by US President Donald Trump was
described as “toxic” and “freaking evil” by veterans who served with him in Iraq.

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Video testimony provided to war crimes investigators and published by the newspaper showed
former members of Gallagher’s elite commando unit accusing him of shooting at a 12-year-old
and discussing the accusations that Gallagher targeted civilians. Gallagher denies the
allegations, dismissing them as smears by platoon members who could not match his
performance. He was originally accused of premeditated murder after allegedly stabbing to
death a captured, wounded 17-year-old IS fighter in Iraq in May 2017. During his 2019 trial, the
case became a controversial issue in conservative media and Trump voiced support for the
SEAL. The President intervened in March 2019 to have Gallagher removed from jail and placed
in a Navy hospital, where he had more freedom. In July 2019, Gallagher was acquitted of
murder by a military jury but convicted of having posed for a picture next to the body of the IS
fighter. He was demoted, and the Navy moved to remove his official SEAL pin sometimes
referred to as a Trident pin a signal Gallagher had lost the respect of the elite group. But Trump
intervened again, ordering the pin and rank be restored.

International

• According to the Pentagon on December 29, the US military carried out “defensive
strikes” in Iraq and Syria against the Kataib Hezbollah militia group, two days after a US
civilian contractor was killed in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base.

The Pentagon said it targeted three locations of the Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq and two
in Syria. The locations included weapons storage facilities and command and control locations
the group had used to plan and execute attacks on coalition forces. The US had accused the
group of the 30-plus rocket attack on December 27, 2019, that killed the US civilian contractor
and injured four US service members and two members of the Iraqi Security Forces near the city
of Kirkuk. Chief Pentagon spokesman, Jonathan Hoffman said in a statement, “In response to
repeated Kataib Hezbollah attacks on Iraqi bases that host Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR)
coalition forces, US forces have conducted precision defensive strikes ... that will degrade KH’s
ability to conduct future attacks against OIR coalition forces.”

• On December 20, top Democratic Senator Kamala Harris came out in support of her
fellow Indian American Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, with whom India’s External
Affairs Minister S Jaishankar refused to meet during his visit to the country.

Harris said in a tweet, “It’s wrong for any foreign government to tell Congress what members
are allowed in meetings on Capitol Hill.” Responding to a news report in The Washington Post
which said that Jaishankar refused to attend a meeting of House Foreign Affairs Committee,
because Jayapal was also scheduled to be present in that meeting along with other lawmakers,
Harris said, she stands with Jayapal and said “I’m glad her colleagues in the House did too.”
Senator Elizabeth Warren, and a leading Democratic presidential candidate came out in support
of Jayapal. “The US and India have an important partnership but our partnership can only

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succeed if it is rooted in honest dialogue and shared respect for religious pluralism, democracy,
and human rights,” she tweeted. Warren said the “efforts to silence” Jayapal “are deeply
troubling”. Congressman Jim McGovern also came out in her support. He said, “No foreign
government should dictate who is or isn’t allowed into meetings on Capitol Hill.” He also said,
“I stand with” Jayapal and “applaud” Congressman Eliot Engel, Chairman of the House
Foreign Affairs Committee “and others for doing the same.” Jayapal, who is a member of the
panel’s subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, rejects the Indian position on Kashmir and
accuses New Delhi of committing gross human rights violations in the occupied valley. She also
criticises India’s new citizenship law because she believes it discriminates against Muslims.
Recently, Ms Jayapal moved a resolution in Congress urging India to end restrictions on
communications and mass detentions in the occupied Kashmir as swiftly as possible and
preserve religious freedom for all residents.

• On December 20, President Donald Trump signed off on asset freezes and visa
restrictions on those involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

US lawmakers are seeking to contain what they regard as an increasing reliance on Russian
energy in western Europe by targeting the project, which aims to double the amount of Russian
natural gas reaching Germany via a pipeline under the Baltic Sea. The sanctions target
contractors working to lay pipes for Nord Stream 2, a10-billion-euro ($11-billion) project
expected to be completed in early 2020 and another Russian gas project, TurkStream. Full
details of the sanctions have not yet been released and US officials have 60 days to disclose the
names of the companies and individuals concerned. In the first sign that the sanctions were
beginning to bite, Swiss contractor Allseas suspended its Nord Stream 2 activities while it
awaited clarification from the US authorities. However, Nord Stream 2 said in reaction to the
statement from Allseas that it would continue to work until the pipeline was finished. Although
US Congress overwhelmingly backed the sanctions, there was criticism from some lawmakers of
a move that in effect punishes Nato allies such as Germany. The move brought severe criticism
from Berlin, Moscow and Brussels.

• On December 20, a spokesperson for the US State Department said the Trump
Administration has approved the resumption of military training facilities for Pakistan to
“improve bilateral cooperation on shared priorities.”

The State Department administers the Military Education and Training (IMET) programme,
which enables Pakistan and other countries to send their officers to US institutions. The
department’s spokesperson pointed out that President Donald Trump’s security assistance
suspension announced in January 2018 authorised “narrow exceptions for programmes that
support vital US national security interests”, making room to restart some programmes. He
added, “The Administration has approved the resumption of IMET programme for Pakistan as
one such exception, subject to Congressional approval.” The official said the IMET served “as
an effective means to strengthen long-term military-to-military relationships critical to US

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national security goals”. He noted that the IMET resumption “provides an opportunity to
increase bilateral cooperation between our countries on our shared priorities.” Highlighting the
need for stronger relations between the US and Pakistan, the official added, “We want to
continue to build this foundation through concrete actions that advance regional security and
stability.”

• On December 19, the New York Times published an editorial which criticised India’s new
citizenship law and noted that it aims to marginalise Muslims and turn India into a
homeland for Hindus.
The editorial also condemned India’s August 5, 2019 decision to illegally merge Kashmir with
the union and to turn nearly two million Muslims in Assam into a stateless crowd. The
newspaper wrote, “The law, as India’s 200 million Muslims have correctly surmised, has
nothing to do with helping migrants and everything to do with the campaign by PM Modi and his
Home Minister, Amit Shah, to marginalise Muslims and turn India into a homeland for Hindus,
who comprise about 80 % of the population of 1.3 billion.” It also noted that last summer, the
Modi government “abruptly stripped statehood and autonomy from India’s only Muslim-
majority state, Kashmir, arresting many of its leaders and shutting down the internet. The
newspaper noted that since he took office in 2014, PM Modi has actively worked to change
India, “even rewriting history books to exclude Muslim rulers who, among other things, built the
Taj Mahal and changing official place names to Hindu from Muslim. Hindu mobs that lynch
Muslims are rarely punished. The editorial pointed out that some non-Muslim Indian liberals,
including members of the once-dominant Congress Party, have joined in the protests against the
law, which has also drawn sharp criticism from human rights groups and governments.

• On December 17, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper said he wants an explanation from
Ankara over threats to close two strategic military bases used by the US in Turkey.

Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had threatened to close the Incirlik and Kurecik
bases. The two bases are located on Turkey’s southwest coast, near the border with Syria. The
US Air Force uses the air base at Incirlik for raids on positions held by Daesh in Syria. The
Kurecik base houses a major Nato radar station. Esper told reporters he would need to speak to
his counterpart, Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, “to understand what they really mean and how
serious they are.” “If the Turks are serious about this, I mean, they are a sovereign nation to
begin with... they have the inherent right to house or not to house Nato bases or foreign troops. I
think this becomes an Alliance’s matter, their commitment to the Alliance, if indeed they are
serious about what they are saying.” Esper also noted he was disappointed by the direction
Ankara seems to be taking, moving away from Nato and getting closer to Russia. He said that if
Turkey was serious about closing down the Kurecik base, it would have to be discussed by Nato.
Turkey faces US sanctions over its decision to buy the Russian S-400 missile defence system,
despite warnings from Washington. Tensions also rose when Turkey launched a military

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incursion into northeastern Syria in October 2019 against the Kurds, who were US allies in the
fight against Daesh.

Latin America

• On December 21, at least 18 inmates died and 16 were injured in overnight clashes
between prisoners in Honduras after fighting erupted at a jail in the northern port town of
Tela.

The National Penitentiary Institute said 17 prisoners had died at the facility and another died in
hospital, with local media describing the unrest as gang violence. It was not clear what sparked
the melee at the prison in Tela, about 200 kilometres from Tegucigalpa, the capital of the small
Central American country. Honduran President, Juan Orlando Hernandez, grappling with a
recent wave of prison killings, had ordered the Army and the police to take full control of the
country’s 27 prisons, which are badly overcrowded with some 21,000 inmates.
---Muhammad Shoaib

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 ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

• On December 27, Pakistan Air Force unveiled its first batch of 8 dual seat JF-17 aircraft,
manufactured by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Kamra.

The new fighter jets were introduced during a ceremony at the Aircraft Manufacturing Factory,
Kamra. Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan was the Chief Guest
while Chinese Ambassador, Yao Jing and Executive Vice President of Aviation Industries of
China (AVIC), Hao Zhaoping also attended the ceremony as guests of honour. Air Marshal
Ahmer Shehzad, Chairman PAC, highlighted the salient features of the project. During the event,
the PAC and China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) also
signed an agreement for co-production of Chinese commercial aircraft. Chinese Ambassador
Yao Jing said that serial production of the dual-seat variant was a landmark development for the
JF-17 programme and a testimony of Sino-Pak mutual cooperation.

• On December 27, the Russian Defence Ministry noted that Russia had deployed its
nuclear capable hypersonic weapon, known as Avangard, capable of evading the US
missile defence systems.

• On December 17, US Aerospace and Defence Company Lockheed Martin awarded

Aerojet Rocketdyne $81.5 million worth contract for hypersonic missile motor.

Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed that the “Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle
entered service,” calling it a “landmark event.” Earlier, on December 24, 2019, Russian
President Vladimir Putin also appreciated his country’s advances in hypersonic weaponry,
saying other countries were “trying to catch up” with Russia. During a board meeting at the
Russian Defence Ministry, Putin said, “Not a single country possesses hypersonic weapons, let
alone continental-range hypersonic weapons.” In December 2018, Putin had claimed that the
new hypersonic missile system would enter service in 2019. The Avangard is capable of flying at
a speed of Mach 20 in the dense layers of the atmosphere, manoeuvring by its flight path and its
altitude and breaching any anti-missile defence. The weapon system can deliver both
conventional and nuclear warheads. Both the US and China are also working on hypersonic
projects. Beijing displayed the Dong Feng 17 hypersonic missile at a military parade in October
2019, while the US military officials indicated that the US would deploy its own hypersonic
weapons by 2022.

In a related development on December 17, 2019, Lockheed Martin awarded Aerojet Rocketdyne
$81.5 million worth contract for hypersonic missile motor, meant for the US Air Force. The
contract would help support Lockheed’s efforts in creating an air-launched, standoff missile that
can reach speed of Mach 5. In April 2018, the US Air Force had selected Lockheed Martin to
design and prototype a new hypersonic cruise missile.

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 • On December 27, Pakistan Navy conducted successful demonstration of live weapon
firing of missiles from surface, subsurface and air platforms in the northern Arabian Sea
and Makran Coast.

According to media reports, the missile launches included land-attack, anti-ship and air defence
missiles. Rear Admiral M. Arshid Javed, the official spokesperson of the Pakistan Navy,
indicated, “Anti-ship missiles were launched from PN destroyer and aircraft. Land attack
missiles were fired from submarine and fast attack craft (missile). Air defence missile was
launched at Makran coast to re-affirm air defence capabilities. All missiles successfully hit their
targets.” The spokesperson stressed that successful launches of missiles were manifestation of
Pakistan’s self-reliance in defence. Naval Chief Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi witnessed live
weapon firing of different missiles. While expressing satisfaction over the operational
preparedness of the Navy, Chief Admiral Abbasi noted that Pakistan Navy was “ready to defend
the sea frontiers and would give a befitting response to any misadventure.”

• On December 26, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry indicated that Ukraine would purchase a
second consignment of US Javelin anti-tank missiles and launch units.

Without providing details, the Ministry noted that the deal was signed in the fourth quarter of
2019. Ukraine received its first shipment of Javelin systems worth around $47 million in April
2018. Ukraine views these systems essential for improving its long-term defence capacity.

• On December 20, US President Donald Trump officially launched the US Space Force,
as first new US military service in more than 70 years, and the sixth branch of military,
after the Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard.

President Trump signed the 2020 National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA), that included the
Space Force, and directed the establishment of the US Space Force (USSF) as the sixth branch
of the armed forces. Trump said, “Because space is the world’s newest warfighting domain.
Amid grave threats to our national security, American superiority in space is absolutely vital.
And we are leading, but we are not leading by enough. But very shortly, we will be leading by a
lot. The Space Force will help us deter aggression and control the ultimate high ground.” He
indicated that he would appoint Gen. Jay Raymond to be the first Chief of Space Operations, the
senior military member of the new branch. According to a fact sheet issued by Space Force
Public Affairs, the Space Force would “maintain and enhance the competitive edge of the
Department.” The fact sheet added, the new branch would “organise, train and equip space
forces in order to protect US and allied interests in space and to provide space capabilities to
the joint force.”
The Space Force would build on the work of the existing US Space Command (SpaceCom),
which was created in August 2019 to handle the US military’s space operations. According to
US military officials, the new branch would work under the Department of the Air Force, and
would properly stand up in next 18 months.

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In response, on December 23, 2019, China criticised the establishment of the US Space Force,
terming it a “direct threat to outer space peace and security.” While expressing concerns and
opposition, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, said, “The relevant US actions
are a serious violation of the international consensus on the peaceful use of outer space,
undermine global strategic balance and stability, and pose a direct threat to outer space peace
and security.”

• On December 20, US President Donald Trump signed the 2020 National Defence
Authorisation Act (NDAA) into law at a signing ceremony held at the Joint Base
Andrews near Washington.

President Trump noted, “The law I am signing today provides $738 billion in defence funding
for 2020. That’s an all-time record. In the history of our country, that’s the highest amount
we’ve ever spent on our military. And that’s after $700 billion in my first year, and $716 billion
last year. And it’s all made, right here, in the USA. That’s very important.” The Congress sent
President Trump the final version of the 2020 defence appropriations bill on December 19, 2019,
as a part of a broad $1.4 trillion spending deal to finalise federal spending for 2020. The bill
would provide $738 billion to the Pentagon.

The bill authorises a base budget of $658.4 billion and an additional $71.5 billion for overseas
contingency operations, resulting in $730 billion funds. Moreover, it also approves $8 billion in
defence-related activities, making total $738 billion funds. The NDAA increases the US defence
spending by about 20 billion dollars, or about 2.8%.

The NDAA also recognises establishment of the Space Force. The launch of the Space Force
would be funded by an initial $40m for its first year. Meanwhile, the bill also directs
congressional oversight of cyber operations and enhances the Department of Defence’s
cybersecurity strategy and cyber warfare capabilities. Regarding emerging technologies, the
NDAA calls for formulation of policies to ensure meeting long-range emerging threats and the
rise of global competitors. Accordingly, the NDAA includes a host of measures supporting
emerging technologies including cyber science and technologies; Artificial Intelligence;
hypersonic capabilities, quantum science; and emerging biotechnologies. With respect to
acquisitions, the NDAA authorises procurement of fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, submarines,
destroyers, aircraft carrier, different sort of missiles and number of other weapon systems.

The NDAA also renewed a decision to exclude Turkey from the US’ F-35 fighter jet programme
in response to Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 air defence system. The bill also claimed
that the Trump Administration should impose sanctions on Turkey over the S-400 procurement.

• On December 19, Rosemary DiCarlo, UN’s Political Affairs Chief, accused the US and
Iran for putting strain on Iran’s July 2015 Nuclear Agreement, known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), meant to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme.

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While briefing the UNSC on nuclear non-proliferation, and UN Security Council Resolution
2231 that specifically backed the JCPOA, DiCarlo expressed her regret over the US’ withdrawal
from the agreement and Iran’s recent steps taken to reduce its nuclear-related commitments. She
said, “Iran has stated that all these steps are reversible and that it intends to remain in the Plan.
It is important that Iran returns to full implementation of the Plan, and refrain from further steps
to reduce its commitments.” She also noted that the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres
also considered the full implementation of resolution 2231, by all Member States “as an integral
component of our collective conflict prevention efforts.”

• On December 17, the US Air Force conducted a drone interception test in which an F-16
Fighting Falcon fighter jet targeted a drone using an AGR-20A Advanced Precision Kill
Weapon System (APKWS), laser-guided rocket in a first-of-its-kind test.

According to the Air Force’s 53rd Wing, the test remained successful, and the weapon could
prove to be an alternative for cruise missile defence. The APKWS intercepted a BQM-167
subscale drone over Eglin Air Force Base’s Gulf of Mexico water range. The F-16, capable of
carrying 14 APKWS munitions, used one precision-guided rocket for the test, resulting in a
direct hit. Col. Ryan Messer, Commander of the 53rd Wing, said, “The test was unprecedented
and will shape the future of how the Air Force executes cruise missile defence.” According to
Col. Messer, the APKWS is less expensive than an Advance Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile
(AMRAAM), which is commonly used for cruise missile defence.

• On December 17, India test-fired two supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles from a SU-30
MIK fighter and a land-based mobile launcher.

The Indian Ministry of Defence noted that tests remained successful. According to India’s
Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) sources, a surface-to-surface variant
of the BrahMos cruise missile was fired from a land-based mobile launcher against an
unidentified target, while an air-launched variant, called BrahMos-A, was launched from a
Sukhoi SU-30MKI fighter aircraft against a sea target. The Defence Ministry noted that
BrahMos-A’s test launch completed integration of the missile on the SU-30MKI aircraft. Earlier,
the DRDO and Indian Air Force test-fired BrahMos-A from a SU-30MKI on May 22, 2019,
while the missile’s first test from the same platform was conducted in November 2017. However,
it is still unclear when India would induct the BrahMos-A into service. The surface-to-surface
variant of the BrahMos was first inducted into service with the Indian Army in 2007.
--- Moiz Khan

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 CHINA, EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

China

● On December 23, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Chinese President Xi
Jinping in Beijing. The two leaders pledged to elevate bilateral ties to a new level.

During the meeting, Xi said the two countries should strengthen cooperation and improve mutual
trust to build a relationship based on the principle of mutual respect, adding that “this should be
fundamental for developing China-Japan relations for the new era, and this should not be
blurred and shaken at any time.” Xi also said that both countries should “stick to the political
consensus that China and Japan are cooperative partners but not a threat”. Abe also urged
China to improve its transparency over Xinjiang and called for an early resolution of the
ongoing anti-government protests in Hong Kong; to which, according to Spokesperson from the
Japanese Foreign Ministry, Masato Ohtaka, Xi responded that the Hong Kong issue was an
internal matter.

Xi also met his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in on December 23, 2019, reaffirming that
both China and South Korea are powerful countries that “have a wide range of common
understandings in various fields, including on further developing bilateral relations, facilitating
regional peace, stability and prosperity, and defending multilateralism and a free trade system.”

In a related development, on December 22, 2019, the trade ministers of China, Japan and South
Korea expressed their willingness to continue discussions on the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP) as well as the trilateral free-trade deal. Chinese Commerce
Minister Zhong Shan assured that China was willing to work with South Korea and Japan to
“oppose unilateralism and protectionism” and to support a global multilateral trade system.

● On December 20, Chinese President Xi Jinping hald a telephonic conversation with his
US counterpart Donald Trump, who termed it a “very good talk”.

The telephonic conversation between the two leaders covered issues such as trade, Hong Kong
and North Korea. In a Twitter post, Trump wrote that he “Had a very good talk with President
Xi of China concerning our giant Trade Deal,” adding that “China has already started large
scale purchase of agricultural product & more. Formal signing being arranged. Also talked
about North Korea, where we are working with China, & Hong Kong (progress!).” According to
Xinhua state news agency, during the call, Xi told Trump that China is deeply concerned about
“negative words and actions” by the US on issues relating to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and
Tibet. Xinhua also reported that “Xi noted that the US’ behaviours have interfered in China’s
internal affairs and harmed China’s interests, which is detrimental to the mutual trust and
bilateral cooperation.”

16
In a related development on December 19, 2019, China announced decision to exempt six US
chemical products from additional tariffs from December 26, 2019 to December 25, 2020, as a
gesture of goodwill after the two countries agreed to a phase one deal.

● On December 19, the top US envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, visited China
where he met his Chinese counterpart. Both sides agreed that they would continue
communicating on North Korean issues.

During the meeting, Vice-Foreign Minister Luo Zhaohui, who is in charge of Korean peninsula
affairs, expressed hope that the US would recommence talks with North Korea “as soon as
possible.” During a press conference before holding talks with Biegun, Luo said that the
situation had become “slightly tense” with US-North Korea negotiations being stalled. Luo
added that issues related to the divided peninsula should be resolved “in a political manner”
and “through dialogue.” Before visiting China, Biegun visited South Korea and Japan where he
confirmed that the three nations would work closely together to achieve the denuclearisation of
the North. On December 16, 2019, Biegun addressed North Korea directly, saying that “It is
time for us to do our jobs. Let’s get this done. We are here, and you know how to reach us.”

North Korea

● According to Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), on December 30, North Korea’s
leader Kim Jong-un called for “positive and offensive measures” to ensure the country’s
“sovereignty and security.”

Kim made these comments while speaking at a gathering of party leaders in Pyongyang and also
called for active “diplomatic and military countermeasures” to preserve the country’s security.
According to experts, Kim’s speech is possibly meant to legitimise major changes to his nuclear
diplomacy with the US. In response, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the Trump
Administration still believes it “can find a path forward to convince the leadership in North
Korea that their best course of action is to create a better opportunity for their people by getting
rid of their nuclear weapons.” During an interview with Fox & Friends, Pompeo added that
“We’re watching what they’re doing here in the closing days of this year, and we hope that
they’ll make a decision that will lead to a path of peace and not one towards confrontation.”

17
Taiwan

● On December 17, Taiwan strengthened its defence ties with the US by signing a strategic
partnership agreement to build an F-16 fighter jet maintenance centre.

Taiwan’s Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) and US defence contractor

Lockheed Martin signed a strategic partnership agreement to lay the groundwork for the
construction of an F-16 fighter jet maintenance centre in Taiwan by 2023.

In a related news on December 17, 2019, the US Senate passed a US$738 billion defence bill
that includes additional support for Taiwan and assessments of China’s military capabilities.
The final version of the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA), provides for a 2.8 %
increase in US military spending and outlines measures to counter US adversaries such as China
and Russia. In response, on December 21, 2019, China expressed strong indignation and
objected the new defence authorisation bill. According to Xinhua state news agency, You Wenze,
a spokesman for the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress, described the
measures as “blatant interference” in its internal affairs, and added that “The US side has
ignored the repeated representations made by the Chinese side and included various negative
clauses in the bill that touch upon Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang issues.” The protest by
Long came a day after US President Donald Trump had a telephonic conversation with his
Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in which they discussed an interim trade deal.

Japan

● On December 27, the Japanese government said it would send a military vessel and two
patrol planes to help protect waterways in the Middle East but would not join a US-led
coalition in the region.

According to a document approved by the Japanese cabinet, a helicopter-equipped destroyer

and two P-3C patrol planes will be dispatched for information gathering aimed at ensuring safe
passage for Japanese vessels through the region. If there were any emergencies, a special order
would be issued by the Japanese Defence Minister to allow the forces to use weapons to protect
ships in danger. Japan opted to launch its own operation rather than joining a US-led mission to
protect shipping in the region. On December 20, 2019, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also briefed
visiting Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Japan’s plan to send its Maritime Self-Defence
Force (SDF) troops to the Gulf.

● On December 24, a summit meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and
South Korean President Moon Jae-in was held in China.

18
The two leaders agreed that South Korea-Japan relations were important and reaffirmed that
their bilateral issues should be resolved through dialogue; however, both leaders failed to make
progress toward resolving the wartime forced labour compensation issue, which has
deteriorated ties between the two countries. The meeting came a year after South Korea’s top
court upheld a lower-court ruling in October 2018 that Nippon Steel must pay 100 million won
($85,600) to each of four plaintiffs who worked in Japan during World War II. During the
meeting, Abe stressed his view that the ruling went against international law and demanded for it
to be rectified.

Malaysia

● From December 18 to 21, Malaysia hosted the Kuala Lumpur Summit (KL Summit)
2019, to discuss issues being faced by the Muslims across the world.

Representatives and leaders from over 20 Muslim countries participated in the summit, while
five memorandums of understanding (MoUs) were signed at the KL Summit by government
agencies and companies, covering areas including youth exchange, food security, media
collaboration, defence and security. Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to set up a
centre of excellence dedicated to research in scientific exploration and high technology, while
the Malaysian and Turkish governments’ media organisations also agreed to inaugurate a
communication centre to address Islamophobia issues around the world.

Addressing the summit on December 19, 2019, Malaysian Prime Minister said that the
convening of the Kuala Lumpur Summit 2019 is not meant to discriminate or isolate anyone, but
an attempt to seek ways to address the problems facing the Muslim community. He added that
“We are attempting to start small and if these ideas, proposals and solution are acceptable and
proved to be workable, then we hope to take it up to the larger platform for consideration.”
---Fareeha Shamim

19
 EUROPE

• On December 29, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela
Merkel welcomed a prisoner swap between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian
separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.

The exchange comes after Russian President, Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President,
Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks in Paris on December 9, 2019. The swap is part of a deal
brokered by France and Germany that aims at ending the conflict between the government forces
and Russian backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine. More
than 13,000 people have been killed in the conflict since 2014. This is the second prisoner
exchange involving Russia and Ukraine. In September 2019, sailors seized by Russia in the
Kerch Strait off Crimea in November 2018 were also released.

• On December 28, thousands of labour unionists and “yellow vests” marched together in
Paris against the French government’s planned pension reform.

Protesters clashed with the police in Paris as French trade unions led a nationwide strike in an
outcry over President Emmanuel Macron’s pensions reforms which would scrap special regimes
for sectors like the railways and make people work till 64 years of age to draw a full pension.
The unionist fear people would have to work longer for smaller pensions. Meanwhile, the
“yellow vests”, an anti-government movement that rose in 2018 as a backlash against the high
cost of living, also joined the rally of labour unionists.

• According to Associated Press on December 27, Montenegro’s Parliament adopted a

contested law on religious rights.
Under the law, the state could claim ownership of the religious buildings. The vote followed
nationwide protests by supporters of the Serbian Orthodox Church who insist the law would
strip the church of its property, including medieval monasteries and churches. The critics say it
is an attempt to promote the small Montenegrin Orthodox Church, which is not recognised by
other major churches, at the expense of the Serbian Orthodox Church, the dominant church in
the country.

• On December 27, Poland’s Foreign Ministry summoned Sergey Andreev, the Russian
Ambassador in Warsaw, to express its “strong objection” over remarks made by
President Vladimir Putin, who blamed the country for the outbreak of World War II.

During the meeting with Ambassador Sergey Andreev, Poland’s Foreign Ministry voiced strong
protest against “historical insinuations” made by the Russian leader. Poland’s Deputy Foreign
Minister Marcin Przydacz said that Poland considers the views expressed by Putin amounted to
the “Stalinist historical narrative” and “propaganda of a totalitarian state.” Earlier in
December 2019, Putin criticised a European Parliament resolution which stated that the 1939

20
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact between Germany and the Soviet Union “paved the way for the
outbreak of World War II.” He singled out Poland in particular, calling it as an anti-Semitic
country that welcomed Hitler’s plans to destroy European Jews.

• On December 23, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that he is “ready to
meet” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Stoltenberg insisted that a dialogue is important when trying to manage “complex”

relationships, saying “I just believe that it’s better to meet…to sit down and discuss.” He said
that Russia is “our biggest neighbour and is here to stay. We need to strive for a better
relationship with Russia.” NATO’s relationship with Russia has remained tense since Moscow
annexed Crimea, which had been a part of Ukraine, in 2014. The NATO has been facing
conflicts among its member states even as the US is pressuring its European allies to pay more
for the alliance.

• On December 21, the European Union and Russia criticised the US for imposing
sanctions on any firm working on a gas pipeline from Russia into Germany.

The sanctions by the US target companies building the nearly $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline
under the Baltic Sea with the aim of doubling deliveries of Russian natural gas to Germany. US
lawmakers have frequently warned that the project would increase President Vladimir Putin’s
influence at a time of heightened tension between Washington and the EU.

• During his visit to Ivory Coast on December 20, French President Emmanuel Macron met
with President of the Ivory Coast, Alassane Ouattara.

President Macron said that Paris has built a “strategic partnership” with Abidjan. The
partnership “addresses the priorities of our two countries in the region and France’s will to
contribute to reinforcing the collective security system in Africa.” He also described France’s
military presence in the region as “a vital mission,” saying Paris would fight against terrorists
“with our African, European and international partners.” France maintains a significant
military presence in Africa. Currently, there are approximately 4,500 French troops in the Sahel
region, alongside a 13,000 UN peacekeeping force in Mali.

• On December 19, UK lawmakers passed the European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill
by 358 to 234 votes.

The Bill sets out the arrangements for Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Prime Minister Boris
Johnson said the country was now “one step closer to getting Brexit done.” The PM insisted that
a trade deal with the EU can be in place by the end of the transition period. Boris Johnson has
underlined his government’s commitment to keeping Northern Ireland in the UK. Johnson insists
that after leaving the EU, Britain could set its own standards on subjects such as the
environment. According to media reports, the European Parliament is expected to ratify the
withdrawal agreement on January 29, 2019, paving the way for the UK to leave the bloc two

21
days later. However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticised the bill, saying there was “a better
and fairer way” to leave the EU.
---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

22
 GLOBAL TERRORISM

• On December 28, a car bomb exploded in the outskirts of Mogadishu, in which at least 79
people lost their lives and another 149 were injured.

Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed accused Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab group

of conducting the attack. However, there was no immediate claim of responsibility. Government
spokesman, Ismael Mukhtar Omar indicated that the attackers drove their car into a busy
security check post, a well-known junction that links the south of Somalia to the capital.
According to Somali Police officers, the target of the attack was a tax collection centre.

• On December 27, Daesh-affiliated group in Nigeria, known as the Islamic State West
Africa Province (ISWAP), claimed responsibility for the execution of 11 people, calling
it a retaliation for the death of Daesh’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria in October
2019.

The video’s voice-over noted that the killings were a “message for Christians” and that all of
those killed were Christian. Nigerian Government officials said some of the executed people
were Muslims. The video was released to Ahmad Salkida, a Nigerian journalist who often
publishes information about both ISWAP and Boko Haram. According to the International Crisis
Group, the ISWAP has between 3,500 and 5,000 fighters. The group is also affiliated with Boko
Haram.

• On December 27, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) in Pakistan arrested five
terrorists running Al-Qaeda’s media cell from Gujranwala in a joint operation with
intelligence agencies.

The CTD officials noted that detained terrorists were under the watch of intelligence agencies
for several months and collecting information on them. The CTD officials noted, “The suspected
terrorists were planning to carry out an attack in Gujranwala and that they recovered
improvised explosive devices (IED), suicide jackets and weapons from them.” The officials also
indicated that terrorists were receiving funds from other Afghanistan-based Al-Qaeda groups.

• According to The New York Times on December 27, British police arrested and granted
bail to the father of a British citizen, who joined Kurdish forces in northern Syria, on
suspicion of financing terrorism.

According to media reports, British police arrested Paul Newey and he was taken to a police
station in Willenhall, England, on December 11, 2019, along with his 18-year-old son Sam.
Newey was held for four days and then released on bail. The police said that Newey was not
charged. The police interrogated Newey about his elder son Danial Newey, who left the UK in
2017 and travelled to north-eastern Syria to join the YPG (People’s Protection Units) – a

23
Kurdish-led force supported by western countries in the five-year battle against Daesh. Danial
returned to the UK in March 2018, where he was investigated by the police and placed on a
watchlist, but was not charged with crimes. He returned to Syria in October 2019 following
Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring in northeastern Syria. Newey said he had given $196 to his
son. However, he said that he had not known his son had returned to Syria when he sent him the
money. If Newey is found guilty of financing terrorism, he may serve a maximum sentence of 14
years in jail under Britain’s Terrorism Act. The case marks the first time a Briton has been
investigated for terrorism offences related to a family member joining the YPG, a group which
the UK has aided with training, weapons and ground troop support as part of the US-led
international coalition against Daesh. The UK has not designated the YPG as a terrorist
organisation. However, the UK considers the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a movement
based in Turkey and Iraq closely allied to the YPG, a terrorist organisation. Several UK
nationals who have joined the PKK have been arrested or charged.

• On December 25, Saudi Arabia’s security forces killed two wanted “terrorists” in eastern
Saudi Arabia.

According to Al Ekhbariya state television report, the shooting took place during a security
operation in the coastal city of Dammam. The report noted that security forces shot two
“terrorists” after a shooting in a residential neighbourhood. However, no further details were
provided on the identity of the deceased or the security operation.

• On December 19, Vladimir Voronkov, Head of the UN Counter-Terrorism Office

(UNOCT), highlighted the significance of tolerance in combating the “corrosive spread”
of violent extremism.

Voronkov said, “Tolerance is central to building cohesion and solidarity, tightening the social
fabric of our societies. This is an essential bulwark against the corrosive spread of violent
extremism.” He also noted that threat of terrorism from Daesh, Al-Qaeda, and other terrorist
groups remained acute and widespread. He stressed that there was need to further strengthen
international and regional cooperation. He made these remarks while speaking in Abu Dhabi at
the closing of a regional conference aimed at empowering young people to prevent and counter
violent extremism and terrorism. The conference was co-organised by the UNOCT, the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hedayah, an international organisation working to counter violent
extremism.

• On December 19 and 18, NATO and the African Union held their first dialogue at NATO
Headquarters in Brussels on counter-terrorism cooperation.

During the meeting, NATO and African Union representatives shared views regarding
development of a fully-fledged civilian-military partnership in fighting terrorism for the coming
years. The two sides also focused on requirements for NATO support to the African Union in the
counter-terrorism domain.

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 • On December 16, the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on world countries to
place Israeli settlers’ groups and their leaders on “international terrorism lists” in order to
prevent them from entering Palestinian territories.

While noting the attacks by Israeli settlers’ groups against Palestinian citizens have increased,
the Ministry held the Israeli government and army fully responsible for the dangerous
escalation. Ministry indicated that settlers’ attacks included cutting and burning down the trees
of Palestinian farmers, seizing their lands by force, damaging car tyres, attacking Palestinians’
homes, destroying water, roads and irrigation projects.
--- Moiz Khan

25
 MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Iran

• On December 27, Iran, China and Russia began joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean and
Gulf of Oman, in what Moscow said was an unprecedented exercise in naval cooperation
and training.

Waters around Iran have become a focus for international tensions, with the US exerting
pressure for Iranian crude oil sales and other trade ties to be cut off. During his address on state
television, Iranian flotilla admiral Gholamreza Tahani said, “The message of this exercise is
peace, friendship and lasting security through cooperation and unity... and its result will be to
show that Iran cannot be isolated.” The broadcaster said the drills included rescuing ships on
fire or vessels under attack by pirates and shooting exercises. The Gulf of Oman is a particularly
sensitive waterway as it connects to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the
world’s oil passes and which in turn connects to the Gulf. Washington proposed a US-led naval
mission following several attacks in May and June 2019 on international merchant vessels,
including Saudi tankers, in Gulf waters which the US blamed on Iran. However, it denies these
accusations.

Iraq

• On December 30, the Iraqi government warned that its relations with the US were at risk
following American air strikes against a pro-Iran group which sparked anger on the
streets with protesters torching US flags.

On December 29, 2019, at least 25 fighters were killed during strikes which saw US planes hit
several bases belonging to the Hezbollah Brigades, one of the most radical factions of Hashed
al-Shaabi, a Tehran-backed Iraqi paramilitary coalition. According to the Hashed group, the
strikes “killed 25 and wounded 51, including commanders and fighters, and the toll could yet
rise.” The US raid came at a time when Iraq is caught up in mounting tensions between its allies
Tehran and Washington and grappling with huge street protests against corruption but also
against Iran’s growing political influence in the country.
Iraq’s government, acting in a caretaker capacity following the resignation of Prime Minister
Abdel Mahdi in the face of street protests, denounced the strikes and warned they could affect
ties with Washington. A statement from the government noted, “American forces acted on their
political priorities, not those of the Iraqis”, adding that such strikes “violate the sovereignty of
Iraq”. The statement added, “The attacks force Iraq to review its relations and its security,
political and legal framework to protect its sovereignty.” The warning came as demonstrators
torched US flags in Basra and Najaf and in Kirkuk north of Baghdad while lawmakers called for

26
US troops withdrawal from Iraq. Parliament’s deputy speaker called on the Iraqi state to “take
all necessary measures” in the face of the US attacks. Many lawmakers called on the
government to review an agreement allowing the deployment of 5,200 US soldiers in the country,
saying the strikes amount to a violation that renders the pact obsolete.

In another development on December 28, 2019, a rocket attack in Iraq killed a US civilian
contractor, raising fears that violence could escalate in the country. Washington recently
promised “a decisive US response” to a growing number of unclaimed attacks on its interests in
Iraq, which it blames on pro-Iran factions.

• On December 26, Iraqi president Barham Saleh said he was “ready to resign” rather than
put forward the candidate of a pro-Iranian coalition for the post of prime minister.

President Saleh’s announcement came as anti-government protesters blocked roads and bridges
in Baghdad and the country’s south after torching several buildings overnight. In a letter to
parliament, Saleh said he wished to guarantee the “independence, sovereignty, unity and
territorial integrity” of Iraq. But he cited the constitution, which obliges the president to task the
candidate put forward by parliament’s biggest bloc with forming a government. Saleh wrote,
“With all my respect to (Basra province governor) Mr Assaad al-Aidani, I decline to put him
forward” for the post. As that could be seen as violating the constitution, “I place before
members of parliament my readiness to resign from the position of President”, Saleh added.
Aidani is considered as the candidate of Iran, which protesters accuse of meddling in Iraqi
affairs. Weeks into a protest movement in Baghdad and Iraq’s south, leaving hundreds dead,
parliament is in deadlock over the selection of a replacement for previous prime minister, Adel
Abdel Mahdi.

Israel

• On December 27, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told supporters he would
win the March 2020 general election after scoring a landslide victory in the leadership
primary of his right-wing Likud party.
Israel’s longest-serving premier, who faces a corruption indictment as well as a third general
election in 12 months, was expected to beat rival Gideon Saar in the leadership primary. But the
convincing margin of victory by 72.5 to 27.5 % strengthens his position in the party he has
dominated for 20 years. Netanyahu called it a “huge win” and pledged to emerge victorious in
the upcoming general election. During a press conference, Netanyahu said, “Now is the time to
unite and bring a tremendous victory for the Likud and the right in the election. Most of the
people support the right and support me to lead the government.” He thanked US President
Donald Trump, a close ally, for his support for Israel and said a Likud victory in the next
election would bring more “historic achievements”. Likud and the centrist Blue and White party
were deadlocked after elections in both April and September 2019, with neither able to command

27
a parliamentary majority under Israel’s system of proportional representation. Leader of Blue
and White, Benny Gantz also used primary result as a rallying call for the general election. He
said Netanyahu’s victory showed Likud members had “elected a leader facing three indictments,
who is seeking to unravel the rule of law and secure personal immunity”.

• On December 22, Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said Egypt will begin importing
natural gas from Israel by mid-January 2020.

According to sources in the energy industry, Israeli gas exports to Egypt will gradually reach 7
billion cubic metres. Steinitz said Egyptian Petroleum Minister, Tarek El Molla had spoken to
him two days ago and congratulated him on signing export permits for the gas. Egyptian
company Dolphinus Holdings reached a landmark deal in 2018 with the Israeli companies
operating the Israeli fields Leviathan and Tamar. In October 2019, the Israeli companies said
they were increasing the amount of natural gas they plan to export to Egypt. One source in the
Israeli energy industry estimated the value of gas was now $19.5 billion $14 billion coming from
Leviathan and $5.5 billion from Tamar. Israel’s Energy Ministry gave its final approval for the
start of production at the giant Leviathan field after a court lifted a temporary injunction granted
over environmental concerns. A spokesman for Egypt’s Petroleum Ministry said he could not
provide any information on the matter.

Kuwait

• During a meeting with Iran’s Ambassador on December 29, Kuwait’s Deputy Foreign
Minister, Khaled al-Jarallah said that Kuwait respects Iran’s “territorial integrity”.

The meeting took place a day after Tehran summoned Kuwait’s envoy to protest against Kuwaiti
officials meeting Iranian separatists. On December 28, 2019, Iran’s Foreign Ministry had said
that it summoned Kuwait’s envoy to Tehran to protest against its officials meeting a separatist
group and holding an “anti-Iran meeting”. A statement from the Ministry noted, “Such actions
are a clear interference in the internal affairs” of Iran. The Iranian statement did not specify
which separatist group the Kuwaiti officials stood accused of having met. Al-Jarallah during his
meeting with Iran’s Ambassador stressed that his country’s foreign policy was based on
respecting “sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs and good neighbourliness.” He
also said that the meeting took place without permission from relevant Kuwaiti authorities,
adding that competent officials have “begun taking necessary legal measures” over the
“disappointing” affair, which was undertaken in a “private” capacity. Iran and Kuwait have
had relatively good relations in recent years despite tensions between Iran and other Gulf Arab
states.

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Qatar

• On December 16, Qatari Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani

voiced optimism over ending the rift with Riyadh, saying early talks broke a “stalemate”
but stressed Doha’s unwillingness to downgrade ties with Turkey as a precondition.
Al-Thani said, “There is some progress... We have broken the stalemate of noncommunication to
starting communication with the Saudis.” He also said, “Honestly, from our perspective in
Qatar, we want to understand the grievances. We want to study them and to assess them and to
look at the solutions that can safeguard us in the future from any other potential crisis.” The
Saudi-led bloc made 13 key demands to resolve the dispute, including shutting down broadcaster
Al Jazeera, downgrading ties with Iran and closing a Turkish military base on its territory. The
Qatari Foreign Minister said Doha was unwilling to alter its relationship with Ankara, which
helped the Gulf country weather the two-and-a-half-year crisis. He said, “Any country that
opened up for us and helped us during our crisis, we will remain grateful (to) them... we will
never turn our back (on) them.” He also said explicitly said he hoped progress with Saudi
Arabia “would lead to positive steps with the others (boycotting nations).” However, the UAE
has sought to downplay the emerging reconciliation effort.

Saudi Arabia

• On December 30, Saudi Arabia said two men who were shot and killed in the eastern city
of Dammam had been planning an attack and were in possession of explosives that could
have been used to deploy a car bomb.

On December 25, 2019, the Saudi police killed two terrorists in a shootout after they refused to
surrender. The Presidency of State Security, which deals with counter-terrorism and domestic
intelligence, said in a statement that the two Saudi men had been wanted by police. They were
identified as Ahmed Abdullah Saeed Suwaid and Abdullah Hussain Saeed al-Nimr. According to
the state security, investigations and the arrest of a third person showed the group had been
planning an imminent terrorist operation, and were in possession of 5 kilogrammes (11 pounds)
of a highly explosive substance, a machine gun, two pistols and live ammunition.

• On December 23, a Saudi court sentenced five people to death and three more to jail over
the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

The court said the killing was not premeditated; a verdict criticised by a UN investigator as a
“mockery” of justice. According to Saudi Deputy Public Prosecutor and spokesman, Shalaan al-
Shalaan, the court dismissed charges against the remaining three of the 11 people that had been
on trial, finding them not guilty. None of the defendants’ names was immediately released.
Shalaan also said, “The investigation showed that the killing was not premeditated ... The
decision was taken at the spur of the moment.” Eleven Saudi suspects were put on trial over

29
Khashoggi’s death in secretive proceedings in Riyadh. The murder caused a global uproar,
tarnishing the Crown Prince’s image. The CIA and some Western governments have said they
believe Prince Mohammed ordered the killing. Saudi officials say he had no role, though in
September 2019 Prince Mohammed for the first time indicated some personal accountability for
the murder, saying “it happened under my watch”. Turkey, UK, and international rights groups
and bodies condemned and criticised the court’s conclusion. Head of Communications for the
Turkish government, Fahrettin Altun, has condemned Saudi Arabia’s court ruling on the murder
of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, calling it “an acquittal for those who issued orders to kill him.”

Syria

• According to the Syrian Observatory Human Rights on December 23, an Israeli missile
strike overnight near the capital of Damascus killed at least three foreigners, who were
most likely Iranians.

Syria’s Foreign Minister, Walid al-Moallem accused Israel of carrying out missile “aggression”
on Damascus and its suburbs. There was no immediate comment from Israel. Moallem spoke in
Moscow during a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. He did not provide
further details. In November 2019, Israel said it struck dozens of Iranian targets in Syria in a
wide-scale operation in response to rocket fire on the Israeli controlled Golan Heights. Israel
has repeatedly struck Iran-linked targets in Syria in recent years and has warned against any
permanent Iranian presence on the frontier.

• On December 22, Russian-backed Syrian forces gained ground after a week-long

renewed operation against the last opposition enclave in Syria’s northwest.
The wide-scale offensive led by intense aerial strikes on civilian areas in rural southeastern Idlib
province broke months of stalemate on the frontlines, where rebels had been holding back the
army from major advances. Russian and Syrian jets have stepped up strikes on villages and
towns around Maarat al-Numan, from which thousands of people have fled to the relative safety
of the Turkish border fearing an imminent assault. According to Union of Medical Care and
Relief Organisations (UOSSM), a US-based medical NGO, in the past week alone, at least
80,000 civilians fled and face harsh conditions during the start of winter.

In a related development on December 19, 2019, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said
that clashes between Syrian regime forces and armed groups in the country’s last major
opposition bastion killed more than 80 on both sides during a period of 24 hours, despite UN
calls for de-escalation. Russian warplanes hit areas around Maaret al-Numan and the nearby
town of Sarageb with a series of airstrikes.

• On December 21, simultaneous drone strikes hit three government-run oil and gas
installations in central Syria.

30
No one claimed responsibility for the attacks, which targeted the Homs oil refinery one of only
two in the country as well as two natural gas facilities in different parts of Homs province. State
TV said it believes the attacks were carried out by drones and happened at the same time. It said
a fire at the Homs oil refinery was soon put under control. The report said the Rayan gas facility
and a third installation, also in Homs province, were hit. Syria’s Oil Ministry said the attacks
damaged some “production units” in the facilities. It said fires were being fought, and that
repairs were already underway in some places. Syria has suffered fuel shortages since the start
of 2019 amid Western sanctions blocking imports, and because most of the country’s oil fields
are controlled by Kurdish-led fighters in the country’s east.

Turkey

• According to senior Turkish sources on December 30, Turkey is considering sending

allied Syrian fighters to Libya as part of planned military support for the besieged
government in Tripoli.

On December 26, 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey would deploy
troops to Libya after Fayez al-Serraj’s internationally-recognised government requested support
to fend off an offensive by General Khalifa Haftar’s eastern forces. The deployment bill has been
sent to parliament, prompting the main opposition party to reject it on grounds it would
exacerbate conflict. The bill’s text warned that Haftar’s army has threatened Turkish companies
in Libya and Turkish ships in the Mediterranean. The bill stated, “Turkey’s interests ... will be
negatively impacted if attacks by the so called Libyan National Army are not stopped and
clashes become a severe civil war.” The move is meant to protect Turkish private investment in
Libya and bolster its energy claims in the Mediterranean, but could also put Ankara at odds with
other foreign players in the war. According to two senior Turkish government officials and two
security officials, Ankara had not yet deployed any Syrian fighters to Libya. “But evaluations are
being made and meetings are being held on this issue, and there is a tendency to go in this
direction,” said one official, adding no decision had been made on numbers.

It was unclear whether Ankara was considering sending Syrian fighters as part of a first
deployment into Libya. Haftar’s forces supported by Russia, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan have
failed to reach the centre of Tripoli. However, they have made small gains in recent weeks with
the help of Russian and Sudanese fighters, as well as drones shipped by the UAE. According to
the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 300 Turkey-backed Syrian fighters had been sent to
Libya while others were training in Turkish camps. However, a spokesman for the Turkey-
backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) denied that Ankara had made a request to send FSA fighters to
Libya. A military source within the FSA said the FSA was not being deployed to Libya, but that
Syrian fighters in Syria and Turkey had signed up on an individual basis, for a salary, to work as
“bodyguards” for a Turkish security company to protect bases and headquarters which Turkish
forces will use in Libya. In November 2019, Ankara signed two accords with Libya’s

31
government: one on security and military cooperation and another on boundaries in the eastern
Mediterranean. The maritime deal ends Turkey’s isolation at sea as it steps up off shore energy
exploration that has alarmed Greece, Cyprus and others. The military deal would preserve its
lone ally in the region, Tripoli, and protect investments by construction firms and other Turkish
companies. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said Turkey aims to prevent Libya sliding
into chaos.

In a related development on December 24, 2019, Erdogan, who discussed the Libyan conflict
with his Tunisian counterpart kais Saied, said a ceasefire in Libya must be set as soon as
possible. Speaking during a joint news conference, Erdogan told reporters that they discussed
ways of establishing a ceasefire and bringing warring factions back to the negotiating table. He
also reaffirmed Ankara’s willingness to send troops to Libya if it received such a request.

UAE

• On December 28, the UAE denied reports that a popular mobile application developed in
the country was being used for government spying.

On December 22, 2019, Apple and Google removed the ToTok app from their marketplaces
following a report claiming it allowed the UAE government to track users’ conversations,
movements and other details. However, the country’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority
said in a statement that UAE laws “prohibit any kind of data breach and unlawful interception”.
It added, “The TRA reaffirms that all certified telecommunications applications in the UAE are
in compliance with these standards.” ToTok became popular by offering free calling and
messaging to millions of users in countries like the UAE where internet calling services like
Skype are blocked. But US intelligence officials and a security researcher determined the app
was being used by the UAE government for detailed surveillance.

Yemen

• On December 29, at least 10 people, including six troops and four children, were killed in
a ballistic missile attack at a military parade in the capital of Dhale province.
At least 21 people, including civilians, were also injured in the attack. A southern separatist
group called ‘the Resistance Forces’ organised the military parade for new recruits at a soccer
field in the capital of Dhale province. Maged al-Shoebi, a spokesman for the group blamed
Houthi rebels for the missile attack. The separatist group is part of the Southern Transitional
Council or STC, which seeks the return of the independent state that existed in the south until
1990. The STC is allied with the Saudi-led coalition that has been fighting Yemen’s Houthi
rebels. But the UAE-backed southerners are currently at odds with Yemen’s internationally
recognised government, which is more closely allied with Saudi Arabia. Cracks in the anti-

32
Houthi bloc have widened over the past several months. The Houthis have been trying to wrest
Dhale province from the southern separatists for years, but without much progress.

In a related development on December 29, 2019, the Iran-aligned Houthis said six “sensitive”
places in Saudi Arabia and three in the UAE are on a list of military targets, suggesting the
group remains prepared to fight on despite informal talks about a truce in Yemen’s war. During
a roundup of the group’s activities during 2019 and outlook for 2020, Houthi military
spokesman, Yahya Saria said the priority targets were said to be “vital and sensitive” locations.
The Houthis have repeatedly said they have targets in Saudi and the UAE in their sights and
have carried out missile and drone strikes on civilian airports and oil infrastructure in Saudi
Arabia.
---Muhammad Shoaib

33
 SOUTH ASIA: I

Pakistan
External

• On December 26, Prime Minister Imran Khan warned that India would “definitely
conduct an action of some sort” in Pakistan’s part of Kashmir to divert international
attention from Kashmir and other domestic issues emanating from the introduction of the
anti-Muslim Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA). He also said that Pakistan
Army was prepared for any such move.

The PM said he had discussed with Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa about the threats
from India saying, “the General told me that Pakistan is prepared for them (India).” Khan made
the remarks while addressing a public gathering in Jhelum district, hours after Pakistan Military
said that two of its soldiers were killed in “unprovoked ceasefire violations” by the Indian troops
along the Line of Control (LOC).

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi claimed that India has
deployed medium-range supersonic cruise missile Brahmos in Indian Occupied Kashmir with an
aim of cross-border military action. The Foreign Minister noted, “Signals picked up by our
intelligence point towards an extraordinary military movement and deployment at the LoC.” Mr
Qureshi said that he had written to the UN Security Council to share Pakistan’s concerns about
India’s threat to regional security. The Foreign Minister said he had also requested the UN to
task a UN observer mission in India and Pakistan to conduct an independent verification of the
ground situation and bring “the facts” to the Council’s attention.

Pakistan’s warning comes a few days after Indian Army Chief, General Bipin Rawat said the
situation along the LoC could “escalate any time”. General Rawat accused Pakistan of fuelling
tensions at the border. He said,“The Army is maintaining a high level of operational readiness,
with detailed plans chalked out to cater for different contingencies.”

• On December 17, the Foreign Office announced that Pakistan would not participate in the
Kuala Lumpur summit to be held in Malaysia from December 18 to 21, 2019.
During a meeting with Malaysia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Marzuki Bin Haji Yahya in
November 2019, Prime Minister Imran Khan had accepted the invitation for attending the Kuala
Lumpur summit. However, Pakistan’s participation at the summit became uncertain when Prime
Minister Imran Khan went on an unscheduled trip to Saudi Arabia on December 15, 2019 where
he held talks with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Army Chief
General Qamar Javed Bajwa visited Abu Dhabi where he met with Crown Prince Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan.

Following these developments, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi formally announced
that Pakistan would not attend the event “at any level” insisting that Saudi Arabia and the

34
United Arab Emirates (UAE) had concerns that the summit could cause “division in Ummah”
and “lead to setting up of an organisation parallel to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
(OIC)”.

Talking to Turkish media representatives in Kuala Lumpur on December 20, 2019, President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE had pressurised Pakistan forcing
it to not participate in the summit. He said that Saudi Arabia had threatened Pakistan it would
expel four million Pakistanis working in Saudi Arabia” and “re-employ Bangladeshis instead.”
President Erdogan said that Saudi Arabia also threatened Pakistan about withdrawing money it
had deposited in the State Bank of Pakistan. According to Erdogan, Pakistan had to submit to
the Saudi wishes “due to its economic difficulties.” However, Saudi Arabia’s Embassy in
Pakistan denied claims that Riyadh had pressured or threatened Islamabad to refrain from
participating in the Kuala Lumpur summit. The summit was meant to discuss major challenges
facing the Muslim world with a particular focus on the situation in the occupied territories of
Palestine and Kashmir. In Pakistan, many are criticising the government for not participating in
the summit despite Malaysia’s and Turkey’s strong support to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir
and the OIC’s failure to take a strong stance on Muslim causes.

• In a related development on December 26, 2019, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal
bin Farhan Al-Saud visited Islamabad and met with Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood
Qureshi. During the meeting, the Saudi Foreign Minister conveyed to Pakistani officials
that it aims to convene a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of member states of the
Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for a discussion on the situation in Indian
Occupied Kashmir (IOK). Prince Faisal visited Pakistan to convey the Saudi leadership’s
gratitude for not participating in the Kuala Lumpur summit.

Pakistan
Internal

• On December 17, a Special Court in Pakistan found Former President and Army Chief,
General (r) Pervez Musharraf guilty of high treason and sentenced him to death. General
Musharraf has been on trial for subverting the Constitution by promulgating a state of
emergency in the country on November 3, 2007. He also placed several superior judges
under house arrest.

In its 167-page detailed judgement authored by Peshawar High Court Chief Justice Waqar
Ahmad Seth, the court said the convict should be hanged even if he dies before his execution.
“We direct the law enforcement agencies to strive their level best to apprehend the
fugitive/convict and to ensure that the punishment is inflicted as per law and if found dead, his
corpse be dragged to the D-Chowk, Islamabad, Pakistan and be hanged for 03 days.” The
verdict noted that “a dictator stays in power only as long as he manages to subvert the will of his

35
people. The usurpation of the functions of government and other organs of State established by
the Constitution is tantamount to subversion of the Constitution. Exercise of undue influence
over judiciary (such as making them cease office and/or take fresh extra-constitutional oath) do
tantamount to subversion of the Constitution.”

This was the first time in Pakistan’s history that a military dictator was tried and convicted by a
court of law. According to Article 6 of the Pakistani Constitution any person who abrogates or
subverts or suspends the Constitution by use of force or by any other unconstitutional means
shall be guilty of high treason. The punishment for high treason is death or lifetime
imprisonment. Pakistan’s Military said the ruling had caused “pain and anguish” in the ranks.

• According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) on December 26, two Pakistan
Army soldiers were killed in ceasefire violations by the Indian troops along the Line of
Control (LoC) in Dewa Sector, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).
The ISPR said that Pakistan Army, in response, damaged an Indian post in Haji Pir Sector and
killed three Indian Army soldiers. In the recent days Indian and Pakistani troops have been
exchanging fire across the LoC, with casualties caused on both sides. In the wake of heightened
tensions with India, Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa visited the LoC in AJK on
December 23, 2019. General Bajwa said that Pakistan’s “quest for peace must never be
misconstrued as weakness.”

India

• On December 31, the Indian government appointed outgoing Army Chief General Bipin
Rawat as the country’s first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS).

General Rawat will retire on December 31, 2019. He would assume duties as the CDS on the
same day. The government also amended the Army, Air force and Navy rules to allow the CDS to
serve till 65 years of age. The CDS would administer all tri-services organisations, comprising
personnel from the Army, Air force and Navy.

• According to Aljazeera on December 27, at least 27 people have been killed in the wake
of the ongoing protests against the anti-Muslim Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019
(CAA).
On December 11, 2019, the Indian parliament approved the Citizenship Amendment Bill 2019
(CAB) enabling the government to grant citizenship to migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh and
Afghanistan as long as they are not Muslims. The bill would allow Buddhists, Christians,
Hindus, Jains, Parsis, and Sikhs who entered India from the three neighbouring countries before
2015, to apply for citizenship. The bill’s passage sparked protests across India where its 200
million Muslim minority fears further marginalisation by the Hindu nationalist government of
the Bharatiya Janata Party.

36
 • On December 23, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held talks
with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Tehran.

Following discussions, Iran and India agreed to speed up the development of the Chabahar port,
which has been jointly developed, by India, Iran and Afghanistan. Jaishankar visit to Iran came
days after the US exempted India from sanctions on Chabahar Port in Iran. Washington insists
that the Chabahar port would help Afghanistan get humanitarian supplies from India.

• On December 18, US Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo and Secretary of Defence,

Mark Esper co-hosted Indian Minister of Defence, Rajnath Singh and Minister of
External Affairs, S. Jaishankar for the second US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in
Washington, D.C.

The two sides reaffirmed their growing strategic partnership and commitment to work together
in the Asia Pacific region. Both sides also discussed ways to expand their defence partnership.
Meanwhile, Pakistan Foreign Office rejected assertions in the US-India joint statement that
called on Pakistan to take immediate, sustained and irreversible action to ensure that no
territory under its control is being used for terrorism against other countries. The two countries
also asked Pakistan to “take concerted action against all terrorist networks, including al-Qaeda,
ISIS, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Haqqani Network, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and
D-Company of Dawood Ibrahim.” Pakistan condemned the “selective and one-sided nature” of
the statement.

In a separate development, India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar cancelled a meeting

with senior members of Congress. The development came after US lawmakers refused an Indian
demand to exclude Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, who had introduced a Congressional
resolution urging India to lift all the restrictions imposed on Jammu and Kashmir since August
5, 2019.
---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

37
 SOUTH ASIA II

Afghanistan

● AP reported on December 29 that the Taliban have agreed to a temporary nationwide

ceasefire.

The US and Afghan authorities have been pressurising the insurgent group to announce a
ceasefire in order to finalise a peace agreement. US President, Donald Trump also called on the
Taliban to strike a ceasefire deal during his recent Afghanistan visit. According to AP, members
of the Taliban negotiating team met for a week with their ruling council before they agreed to the
brief ceasefire. However, a Taliban spokesman later rejected the report and said, “The reality of
the situation is that the Islamic Emirate has no intention of declaring a ceasefire. The United
States has asked for a reduction in the scale and intensity of violence and discussions being held
by the Islamic Emirate are revolving solely around this specific issue.” Meanwhile, clashes
continued between the insurgents and the government security forces. On December 28, 2019,
at least 10 members of the Afghan Army were killed in an attack on their outpost by the Taliban
in Sangin district of Helmand province. In a related Taliban offensive on December 29, 2019, at
least 17 members of the public uprising force were killed and 4 others wounded in Takhar
province. Meanwhile on December 30, 2019, a Taliban attack on another Afghan Army security
check post left at least 14 soldiers dead in Jawzjan province. In retaliation, government forces
conducted airstrikes against Taliban targets across the country and claimed they had killed
scores of Taliban fighters, including some commanders.

● According to the Defence Ministry of Afghanistan, on December 26, a powerful suicide

car bombing targeted an Afghan army compound in Balkh province killing at least six
Afghan soldiers.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack saying they had inflicted a far greater number
of casualties and captured the base and seized huge quantities of weapons and ammunition. In a
related incident on December 23, 2019, a US service member was killed in a Taliban attack in
Logar province. This brings the death toll to 20 US soldiers killed in Afghanistan during 2019. In
another development on December 27, 2019, at least 21 Taliban fighters, including a designated
shadow governor in Laghman, and two other key members of the group, were killed in an
airstrike.

● On December 25, the US gave a written assurance to India that it will help facilitate
global banks to fund the purchase of equipment worth $85 million to be established at
Chabahar Port.

● On December 23, India and Iran agreed to accelerate work on the Chabahar port, which is
being jointly developed by India, Iran and Afghanistan.

38
The decision was made after India’s External Affairs Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met
with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif in Tehran. The meeting came after the US provided a
rare exemption from Iran-focused sanctions to India for the Chabahar port in Iran. Washington
said that it recognised the strategic project was a lifeline for war-torn Afghanistan to get
humanitarian supplies from India. Chabahar is located on the Indian Ocean in Sistan and
Baluchestan province and expected to open up trade between the three nations and Central Asia.
In May 2016, India, Iran and Afghanistan signed a pact that included the establishment of a
transit and transport corridor among the three countries using Chabahar port as one regional
hub.

● On December 22, the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC) announced

that President Ashraf Ghani earned 50.64% of votes to lead the preliminary results of the
2019 presidential election.

The announcement of the preliminary presidential election results was originally scheduled for
October 19, 2019. Many leading Presidential candidates led by Abdullah Abdullah were calling
on the election commission to invalidate the 300,000 controversial votes before announcing the
election results. Based on the preliminary results announced, Abdullah earned 39.52% of the
tally. Abdullah’s team accused Ghani’s campaign team of taking the Independent Election
Commission’s side and said that the preliminary results were announced without separating the
“clean” and “fraudulent” votes from each other. Abdullah called on his supporters to stay calm
but assured them that their rights will be defended. Meanwhile, Ghani addressed his campaign
team at a gathering at the Presidential Palace where he thanked the IEC for holding the
presidential polls. He added, “The republic is firm in its place. The republic (government) will
continue and citizens will be its centre. Today is the citizens’ celebration. The people of
Afghanistan made this success happen.” Ghani also commended the Afghan National Defence
and Security Forces for ensuring the safety of the election. The UN Assistance Mission in
Afghanistan (UNAMA) welcomed the announcement of the preliminary results and commended
the IEC for their work leading up to the announcement. On December 23, 2019, Alice Wells, the
US principal deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, thanked the IEC for
its work under challenging circumstances and said that concrete steps must be taken early to
form an inclusive negotiating team by Afghanistan’s government for negotiations with the
Taliban.

● On December 20, the Taliban said that intra-Afghan talks would begin only when there is
an agreement on complete US troop pull-out.

Ronald Kobia, the European Union Ambassador to Afghanistan, responded to the Taliban
statement and said that the agreement between the US and Taliban should include a ceasefire
during the intra-Afghan talks. A spokesperson for the Presidential Palace also reacted to the
Taliban’ statement and said, “The Afghan people and government have questions about the links
between the Taliban and other terror groups and also about the sanctuaries outside the country.

39
These issues need to be addressed.” According to US officials, Washington intends to keep
around 8600 US soldiers in Afghanistan for intelligence and counter-terror operations.
However, the Taliban have been insisting for the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from the
country in order to move the negotiations to the next level i.e. intra-Afghan talks.

● On December 19, US Special Representative on Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay

Khalilzad met with Afghan leaders in Kabul to discuss negotiations with the Taliban in
Doha and his meetings in Islamabad.

Khalilzad met with John Bass the US Ambassador in Kabul, Gen. Austin Scott Miller,
Commander of US and NATO Forces in Afghanistan, President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive
Abdullah Abdullah, former president Hamid Karzai, women activists, and other political leaders
and discussed efforts to achieve reduced violence and pave the way to intra-Afghan negotiations.
Ghani’s office said in a statement that both Khalilzad and the President discussed the ceasefire
and the Taliban’s “safe havens outside Afghanistan.” Khalilzad’s trip came after a break was
called in the US-Taliban negotiations following a Taliban-claimed attack on Bagram air base on
December 11, 2019. Before the break the US-Taliban discussions were focused on reduction of
violence, a ceasefire and intra-Afghan negotiations.

● During a joint news conference with India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam
Jaishankar on December 19, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that he hopes a
reduction of violence in Afghanistan would lead to a ceasefire.

Pompeo said, “We are hopeful that all of the relevant political participants in Afghanistan, the
Afghan government, non-Afghan government leaders inside of Afghanistan, the Taliban -- we’re
hopeful they will all conclude that the right answer is a significant reduction in violence, leading
to a ceasefire. Negotiations amongst and between the Afghan peoples and their leaders, such
that the United States can reduce its footprint while continuing to ensure that the threat of
terrorism emanating from Afghanistan to the homeland here in the United States has a greatly
reduced risk.” Meanwhile, Jaishankar said he believes peace process should be Afghan-led and
Afghan-owned.

● On December 18, Iran hosted the second Regional Security Dialogue with a special focus
on Afghanistan. National security officials from Russia, China, India, Afghanistan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan attended the Dialogue.

Participants of the event acknowledged that many issues in Afghanistan pose threats to the entire
region and therefore are of common concern to all the participating countries. These issues
include drug and arms trafficking, illegal immigration, extremism, political and sectarian
tensions, terrorism and the presence of foreign forces -- especially those of the United States.
The meeting was called to coordinate and strengthen regional cooperation and define a
collective mechanism to deal with those threats. while emphasising the need to strengthen
bilateral and multilateral security relations in the region, Iran insists that any initiative on

40
Afghanistan should be centred on the Afghan government. Accordingly, Iran is negotiating with
the Taliban in coordination with the Afghan government, aiming to facilitate inter-Afghan
dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif insists Tehran is opposed to US-
Taliban talks because Washington has ignored the Afghan government. Afghan National Security
Adviser Hamdollah Moheb reaffirmed Iran’s position and emphasised the need to support
Afghan Security Forces, which he said was the only option for stability. Meanwhile, Russian
Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev insisted that there is evidence the US is involved in
helping Daesh forces reach Afghanistan. Like Iranian officials, he also emphasised that
negotiations should be held directly between the Taliban and the Afghan government to achieve
a national solution to the current situation. The first session of the Regional Security Dialogue
was also held in Tehran in September 2018.

● During a press conference in Kabul on December 16, US Senator Lindsey Graham spoke
about a possible troop reduction during the next year and offered a suitable remaining
force level of 8,600 troops.

Graham said, “I believe we can responsibly reduce our forces -- if the number 8,600 is chosen
it’s a good decision, it is not a threat to American national security, to go below that I believe
would have to be substantial change -- a peace agreement that’s real, that would stand the test of
time.” He explained that this number is in accordance with General Miller’s assessment of a
force that could maintain a counter-terrorist mission while also shifting more responsibility to
Afghan forces. Graham also spoke about his personal commitment to maintaining the progress
made in Afghanistan since 2001, saying that he would never agree to let women’s rights go
backward. Asked about Pakistan, he spoke of President Trump’s desire for Pakistan to “up its
game” in terms of helping with the peace process, and said, “We all know that if Pakistan
applied more pressure on the Taliban it would be enormously helpful to resolving the conflict
here.” Before reaching Kabul, Graham visited Islamabad and met with Pakistan’s Prime
Minister, Iimran Khan. Graham hailed Pakistan’s consistent support in the Afghan peace
process and commended the country’s unilateral installation of a fence to secure its long and
traditionally porous border with Afghanistan. Meanwhile, PM Khan reiterated that Pakistan
would continue to play its facilitation role in the Afghan peace and reconciliation process.

● On December 16, US Defence Secretary, Mark Esper expressed his desire to reduce the
number of US troops in Afghanistan with or without a peace agreement in order to give
higher priority to strategic competition with China.

Esper told reporters that Austin Miller, the head of the NATO mission and US Forces in
Afghanistan, is confident that he can go down to a lower number of troops. He added that the
best solution for Afghanistan is a political agreement between the government and the Taliban.
Esper also said that he had not yet ordered any downsizing, noting that the decision was
ultimately the responsibility of President Donald Trump. About 13,000 US troops are currently

41
in Afghanistan. In November 2019, Trump said that he planned to cut the overall troop presence
to 8,600, with further reductions possible.

---Kashif Hussain

42
 UNITED NATIONS

• On December 30, Jeremiah Mamabolo, Chief Mediator for the African Union-United
Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), welcomed the signing of a framework
agreement between the Transitional Government of Sudan and the Darfur Armed
Movements.

Jeremiah Mamabolo said, “This is a very positive development confirming the political will and
readiness of the parties to reach a comprehensive peace agreement.” The framework agreement
was signed between the two sides during peace talks in Juba, South Sudan on December 28,
2019. The agreement aims at advancing the peace process by issuing principles to guide ongoing
negotiations for a fair and comprehensive peace agreement. The UNAMID was established in
2007, following eruption of a civil war in the country in 2003. The civil war led to the deaths of
thousands of Darfuris and the displacement of nearly two million civilians.
• On December 27, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) approved a resolution condemning
human rights abuses against Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims and other minorities.

The UNGA voted 134-9 with 28 abstentions in favour of the resolution. The resolution calls on
Myanmar’s government to take urgent measures to combat incitement of hatred against the
Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine, Kachin and Shan states. However, Myanmar’s UN
Ambassador, Hau Do Suan called the resolution discriminatory and a classic example of double-
standards. He said, “The resolution will sow seeds of distrust and will create further
polarisation of different communities in the region.”
• On December 26, the head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)
noted that the Afghan conflict has resulted in more than 100,000 casualties during the last
decade.

• On December 16, the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund

(UNICEF) issued its report noting that an average of nine children have been killed or
maimed every day in Afghanistan so far in 2019.

Tadamichi Yamamoto, head of the UNAMA, said, “I reiterate the call by the United Nations for
everyone to raise their voices for peace, and for all stakeholders to make genuine and concrete
steps toward ending the war, as there can be no military solution to the conflict in this country.”
He noted that the protracted conflict continues to take an “appalling toll” on ordinary Afghans.
Yamamoto also urged the UNSC to support intra-Afghan talks which would uphold human rights
and lead to sustainable peace.
The report entitled “Preserving Hope in Afghanistan: Protecting children in the world’s most
lethal conflict,” describes Afghanistan as “the world’s most lethal warzone.” The report also
accuses warring parties in the country of failing in their duty to protect children from its

43
consequences. While recording nearly 6,500 child fatalities between 2009 and 2018, the report
stated that rate of child fatalities is increased by 11% since 2018. UNICEF Executive Director
Henrietta Fore said, “Children, their families and communities suffer the horrific consequences
of conflict each and every day. Those same children are desperate to grow up, go to school,
learn skills, and build a future for themselves. We can, and must, do so much more to reinforce
their extraordinary courage and resilience.” The UNICEF also called on parties to the conflict
to fulfil their obligations under international humanitarian and human rights law, which require
them to protect children, end the targeting of schools and health centres and allow access to
humanitarian assistance.
• On December 24, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stressed the need for “an
independent and impartial investigation” into Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s death.

UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric noted that a proper investigation of the case was necessary
“to ensure full examination of and accountability for human rights violations committed in the
case.” Dujarric said, “The Secretary-General also reiterates the UN’s commitment to ensuring
freedom of expression and protection of journalists, as well as our longstanding opposition to
the death penalty.” Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in
Istanbul in October 2018.
• On December 23, Mark Lowcock, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for
Humanitarian Affairs, called for a thorough investigation into December 21 and 22, 2019,
attacks against the premises of three international aid organisations in Yemen.

The attacks occurred in Al Dhale’e, located in the southwest of the country. Unknown
individuals carried out these attacks using rocket-propelled grenades. Lowcock said, “These
events represent an alarming escalation in the risks faced by humanitarian workers in Yemen.
Twelve organisations have now been forced to suspend aid programmes in Al Dhale’e, which
will affect 217,000 local residents. Several organisations are working with local staff to ensure
the most essential activities can continue.” Yemen is going through worst humanitarian crisis,
and approximately 80% of the population rely on aid relief in the country.
• On December 20, the eighth session of the Conference of the States Parties (COSP) to the
United Nations Convention against Corruption concluded with the adoption of several
resolutions aimed at strengthening the work of anti-corruption bodies.

During the 2019 session, some fifteen resolutions were adopted. These resolutions address the
working of anti-corruption and audit bodies, financial intelligence units and parliaments, as well
as issues including public sector integrity and public awareness, asset recovery, bribery,
measuring corruption, environmental crime and corruption in sports. One of the fifteen
resolutions was sponsored by Pakistan. The resolution called upon parties to enhance exchanges
among parliamentary institutions for promoting good practices to strengthen the role of
parliaments in their respective countries in enacting legislation and ensuring effective oversight.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson said that unanimous adoption of the resolution was
manifestation of the trust reposed by the international community in Pakistan’s leading role in

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the fight against corruption. The COSP is the main policy-making body of the United Nations
Convention against Corruption. It supports States parties and signatories in their
implementation of the Convention.
• On December 18, Nikolay Mladenov, the UN’s Special Coordinator for the Middle East
Peace Process, told the UNSC that obstacles were increasing against a conclusive peace
agreement between Israel and Palestine.

While briefing the UNSC, Mladenov noted that the situation on the ground “has only
deteriorated,” since the adoption of Security Council resolution 2334 in 2016. Mladenov said,
“Settlements have expanded significantly, demolitions have accelerated, violence and incitement
have continued.” He asserted that the intra-Palestinian unity was missing and there were no
prospects of initiation of credible negotiations. He called on UN Member States to support the
2020 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for the occupied Palestinian territories, launched on
December 11, 2019. The 2020 HRP appeals for $348 million funds to provide basic food,
protection, health care, shelter, water and sanitation to 1.5 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip
and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.
• On December 17, the UNSC postponed a special meeting on occupied Kashmir to discuss
the situation in the disputed region.

According to media reports, the UNSC was supposed to meet behind closed doors at China’s
request. China’s UN mission had written in a note to council members, “In view of the
seriousness of the situation and the risk of further escalation, China would like to echo the
request of Pakistan, and request a briefing of the Council on the situation of Jammu and
Kashmir.” However, the meeting was postponed after France opposed the move. French
diplomatic sources noted, “Our position has been very clear. Kashmir issue has to be treated
bilaterally (between India and Pakistan). We have highlighted this several times.” The UNSC
held its last meeting on Kashmir on August 16, 2019, after China had expressed concerns on
rising tensions between India and Pakistan.
--- Moiz Khan

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