Single 94724266065801bb17b1f8

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research
20 February 2023
Netflix Inc
NFLX Trending, 2/20/23: Sharing Pushback Creates N-
T Risk, But We’ve Seen This Movie Before; Overweight
NFLX, NFLX US
Manageable & Accretive Price (17 Feb 23):$347.96
Price Target (Dec-23):$390.00
NFLX shares are +10% since strong 4Q earnings, outperforming the SPX +5%, but Internet - Large Cap / Mid & Small
also off their recent highs, partly due to early pushback around paid sharing Cap
launches in select international markets. Coming out of 4Q earnings, our Doug Anmuth AC
conversations with investors suggested that many were surprised about NFLX’s (1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
comments that the paid sharing rollout would result in increased cancellations near
Bloomberg JPMA ANMUTH <GO>
term, as the company saw in LatAm. However, the past two weeks since the Feb
Bryan M. Smilek
8 launch of sharing and extra members in Canada, New Zealand, Portugal,
(1-212) 622-8886
& Spain make it quite clear how this could happen, with elevated news bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com
headlines, Twitter activity, and customer support engagement. As NFLX J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
indicated, there is risk of elevated N-T churn in those four, small markets. But we
have also seen over the many years of NFLX price increases how headlines can
increase churn even before an actual policy change – remember grandfathering Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)
price announcements? Accordingly, it’s no surprise that newsflow around NFLX’s Adj. EPS ($)
2022A 2023E 2024E
changes in Canada has traveled south and may also be impacting some existing Q1 3.53 2.82
NFLX subscribers in the US, even though paid sharing has not yet been launched Q2 3.20 3.12
in NFLX’s biggest market. As shown in Figures 5 & 6 below, worldwide searches Q3 3.10 3.48
for ‘Netflix Account Sharing’ and ‘Cancel Netflix’ have spiked in recent weeks. Q4 0.12 2.56
FY 9.95 11.98 14.71
In anticipation of N-T noise, NFLX pointed to ‘modest positive paid net adds for
1Q, and we project 1.5M, w/consensus at 2.4M. We’re at 3.25M net adds for 2Q Style Exposure
(consensus 4.3M) w/NFLX having indicated greater additions in 2Q than 1Q, but
we acknowledge that a delayed rollout or increased friction could shift the 2Q
trajectory (this is starting to become a concern among some investors). Despite
N-T pushback and confusion around NFLX’s one household approach, we
expect the company to make select policy & customer service tweaks along the
way, work through these headwinds (as it has before), and ultimately generate
more revenue through the combination of Extra Members and standalone
accounts. We recommend buying on pullbacks and remain bullish on NFLX, as:
1) content, advertising, & paid sharing should drive accelerating FXN revenue
growth through 2023; 2) operating margins expand due to faster revenue growth
and tighter cost discipline; and 3) FCF ramps on improving profit & stable cash
content spending. Importantly, as the streaming industry becomes more rational,
we believe NFLX benefits through its strong scale & industry-leading position,
along w/its 20%+ operating margins. We maintain our Overweight rating, and our
Dec ‘23 PT of $390 is based on 26.5x 2024E GAAP EPS of $14.71, which equates
to 35x 2024E FCF of $5B.
• Paid Sharing Rollout Details. With 100M+ borrowers of the service globally
(30M in the US), NFLX recently rolled out Paid Sharing across Canada, New
Zealand, Portugal, & Spain. We expect broader, staggered implementation
through 1Q, and possibly into 2Q. Key details of NFLX’s ‘one household’
approach include: 1) Members must set their primary location. We believe this
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 29 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Doug Anmuth North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-6571 20 February 2023 JPMORGAN
Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis
We believe NFLX is a key beneficiary and driver of the
ongoing disruption of linear TV, with the company’s content
performing well globally and driving a virtuous circle of
strong subscriber growth, more revenue, and growing profit.
We expect NFLX to continue benefiting from the global
proliferation of Internet-connected devices and increasing
consumer preference for on-demand video consumption over
the Internet, with NFLX reaching 300M global paid subs by
2027. Additionally, the recent launch of NFLX’s ad-
YTD 1m 3m 12m supported tier, Basic with Ads (BWA), as well as the
Abs 18.0% 6.7% 17.8% -10.0%
Rel 7.5% 3.4% 12.0% -6.0% upcoming Paid Sharing launch in early 2023 should further
help re-accelerate subscriber & revenue growth while driving
Company Data high-margin incremental revenue.
Shares O/S (mn) 452
52-week range ($) 402.87-162.71 Valuation
Market cap ($ mn) 157,155.80 Our December 2023 PT of $390 is based on 26.5x our ’24E
Exchange rate 1.00
Free float(%) 98.8% GAAP EPS of $14.71, which equates to 35x our $5B ’24E
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 8.78 FCF (~3% FCF yield). This is a premium to large-cap TMT
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 2,824.0 peers MSFT & AAPL, both trading at ~23x ’24E GAAP EPS,
Volatility (90 Day) 53
Index RUSSELL 2000 which we think is justified by NFLX's faster top- and bottom-
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 25|23|4 line growth.
Key Metrics (FYE Dec)
$ in millions FY22A FY23E FY24E Performance Drivers
Financial Estimates
Revenue 31,616 35,246 40,244
Adj. EBIT 5,633 6,854 8,257
Adj. EBITDA 6,545 7,953 9,476
Adj. net income 4,492 5,400 6,558
Adj. EPS 9.95 11.98 14.71
BBG EPS 10.67 11.62 14.44
Cashflow from operations 2,026 3,723 5,639
FCFF 1,619 3,196 5,037
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth 6.5% 11.5% 14.2%
EBIT margin 17.8% 19.4% 20.5%
EBIT growth (9.1%) 21.7% 20.5%
EBITDA margin 20.7% 22.6% 23.5%
EBITDA growth (3.8%) 21.5% 19.1%
Net margin 14.2% 15.3% 16.3%
Adj. EPS growth (11.4%) 20.4% 22.7%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 14.7% 14.0% 15.0%
Interest cover 17.7 13.8 17.5
Net debt/Equity 0.4 0.3 0.0
Net debt/EBITDA 1.4 0.8 0.1
ROE 24.5% 24.5% 25.1%
Valuation
FCFF yield 1.0% 2.0% 3.2%
Dividend yield - - -
EV/Revenue 4.8 4.2 3.6
EV/EBITDA 23.2 18.8 15.2
Adj. P/E 35.0 29.0 23.7
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact.
2
may require connecting to home Wi-Fi, opening the Netflix app/website, & watching
something at least every 31 days to identify the account’s primary location based on IP
address, device IDs, & account activity; 2) Extra Members can be added– one for
Standard plan members & two for Premium plan members. Extra members prices are:
Canada CAD$7.99/mo/member, New Zealand NZD$7.99/mo/member, Portugal €3.99/
mo/member, and Spain €5.99/mo/member; 3) Members can manage devices with access
to the account through the Manage Access & Devices page; 4) Profile Transfer can export
a user (borrower) profile to a new account; & 5) Members can still watch while they
travel, though we believe this may require members to request a temporary code
providing access for a select timeframe. Importantly, the cost of an Extra Member
represents a premium to the ad tier of 33% in Canada and 9% in Spain. Overall, we
believe the higher Extra Member price point will push borrowers to the ad tier over
time. We note that in New Zealand and Portugal – markets w/o the ad tier for now – Extra
Member pricing is 38% & 50% below the Basic tier. We believe NFLX will use early
learnings from these four markets to help determine pricing for additional markets,
including the US.
• Advertising Incremental Even on Small Sub Number Early On. Though the ad tier
remains small (we estimate ~670k subs at 4Q22 & 2.67M at 1Q), BWA user engagement
is comparable to that of non-ads users & ad tier unit economics are already neutral or
accretive to the Basic non-ad plan (i.e. $9.99 plan in US) across all 12 markets where
advertising is rolled out. NFLX is not seeing much trade-down from higher tiers to the
ad-supported plan and believes a good amount of ad tier subs are incremental (i.e. subs
NFLX would not have had otherwise). We project 11M ad tier subs ending 2023 and
21.5M ending 2024, and we expect the ad tier to become increasingly relevant as paid
sharing rolls out in 1H23, serving as a backstop for churning members or current
borrowers looking for a lower priced plan.
• Focus on Core Sub Growth. We estimate 1.5M Net Adds in 1Q, 3.25M in 2Q, & 16M
for 2023, up 9M from 2022. Importantly, we believe NFLX’s content cadence has
become both more normalized and more successful relative to the choppiness
experienced during the pandemic. We believe the 1Q content slate has shaped up well,
though it’s not as strong as either 3Q22 or 4Q22. Apptopia data suggests NFLX’s 1QTD
average global DAU growth has stabilized at +9% Y/Y (also +9% in 4Q) & DAUs have
improved on an absolute basis. 1QTD Downloads (DLs) have declined -8% Y/Y, better
than the -17% Y/Y in 4Q, and our data currently suggests 3.1M net adds in 1Q. But
we note that Downloads themselves do not take churn into account, and
cancellations this quarter could be more impactful than our regression anticipates.
Seasonality is also likely to get tougher through the rest of 1Q.
Figure 1: Netflix Canada Streaming Plans Figure 2: Netflix New Zealand Streaming Plans
Pricing vs Pricing vs Pricing vs Pricing vs
Price USD Price Price USD Price
Lowest Tier (%) Lowest Tier ($) Lowest Tier (%) Lowest Tier ($)
Extra Member CAD 7.99 $5.93 33% CAD 2.00 Extra Member NZD 7.99 $4.99 -38% -NZD 5.00
BWA CAD 5.99 $4.45 Basic NZD 12.99 $8.11
Basic CAD 9.99 $7.41 Standard NZD 18.49 $11.55
Standard CAD 16.49 $12.24 Premium NZD 24.99 $15.61
Premium CAD 20.99 $15.58
Source: Company Website. Note: FX rates as of 2/17/23. Source: Company Website. Note: FX rates as of 2/17/23.
Figure 3: Netflix Spain Streaming Plans Figure 4: Netflix Portugal Streaming Plans
Pricing vs Pricing vs Pricing vs Pricing vs
Price USD Price Price USD Price
Lowest Tier (%) Lowest Tier ($) Lowest Tier (%) Lowest Tier ($)
Extra Member 5.99 € $6.41 9% 0.50 € Extra Member 3.99 € $4.27 -50% -4.00 €
BWA 5.49 € $5.87 Basic 7.99 € $8.55
Basic 7.99 € $8.55 Standard 11.99 € $12.82
Standard 12.99 € $13.89 Premium 15.99 € $17.10
Premium 17.99 € $19.24
Source: Company Website. Note: FX rates as of 2/17/23. Source: Company Website. Note: FX rates as of 2/17/23.
3
Figure 5: Search Interest for “Netflix Account Sharing” Over the Past 12 Months
Source: Google Trends.
Figure 6: Search Interest for “Cancel Netflix” Over the Past 12 Months
4
See Figure 7 below for Netflix’s Global DAU growth since the beginning of 2019
according to Apptopia.
Figure 7: NFLX DAU Growth – GLOBAL – 1/1/19 to 2/15/23
Y/Y Change in DAUs - GLOBAL

29.00%
27.00%
25.00%
23.00%
COVID-19
21.00%
India Streamfest
19.00%
17.00% Squid Game
15.00%
13.00%
11.00%
9.00%
7.00%
1/1/2019
3/4/2019
5/5/2019
7/6/2019
9/6/2019
1/8/2020
11/7/2019
3/10/2020
5/11/2020
7/12/2020
9/12/2020
11/13/2020
1/14/2021
3/17/2021
5/18/2021
7/19/2021
9/19/2021
11/20/2021
1/21/2022
3/24/2022
5/25/2022
7/26/2022
9/26/2022
11/27/2022
1/28/2023
Source: Apptopia
Figure 8 below shows Netflix’s Global Downloads growth since the beginning of 2019
according to Apptopia.
Figure 8: NFLX Downloads Growth – GLOBAL – 1/1/19 to 2/15/23
Y/Y Change in Downloads - GLOBAL

150.00%
India Streamfest
100.00%
Squid Game
50.00% COVID-19
0.00%
-50.00%
-100.00%
11/7/2019
3/10/2020
5/11/2020
7/12/2020
9/12/2020
11/13/2020
1/14/2021
3/17/2021
5/18/2021
7/19/2021
11/20/2021
1/21/2022
3/24/2022
5/25/2022
7/26/2022
9/26/2022
11/27/2022
1/28/2023
9/19/2021
1/1/2019
3/4/2019
5/5/2019
7/6/2019
9/6/2019
1/8/2020
Source: Apptopia
5
In Figures 9 through 18 below, we show the Y/Y growth in Netflix’s DAUs and
Downloads globally and by region.
Figure 9: NFLX DAU Growth - GLOBAL: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23 Key DAU Takeaways:
Y/Y Change in DAUs - GLOBAL

• 1QTD Global DAU growth has stabilized at +9% Y/Y (also+9%
Y/Y in 4Q), and we highlight absolute global DAU data has
12.00% improved through 1QTD. Looking forward, implementation &
11.50%
confusion around Paid Sharing could weigh on users. However,
11.00%
10.50%
the BWA launch expands Netflix’s TAM, and we expect solid
10.00% content to continue.
9.50%
• 1QTD APAC DAUs have grown +19% Y/Y ( +20% Y/Y in 4Q),
9.00% & APAC remains NFLX’s fastest growing & least penetrated
8.50%
region.
8.00%
• Other regions’ 1QTD DAU trends: +5% Y/Y for UCAN (+4% in
7/7/2022
10/17/2022
11/20/2022
12/24/2022
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
6/3/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023 4Q), +9% Y/Y for EMEA (+10% in 4Q), +8% Y/Y for LATAM
(also +8% in 4Q).
Source: Apptopia • Global 1QTD DAU Y/Y growth of +9% compares to our
projected 1Q total sub growth of +5%.
Figure 10: NFLX DAU Growth - UCAN: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23 Figure 11: NFLX DAU Growth - EMEA: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23
Y/Y Change in DAUs - UCAN Y/Y Change in DAUs - EMEA

7.00% 15.00%
6.50% 14.00%
6.00% 13.00%
5.50%
12.00%
5.00%
11.00%
4.50%
4.00% 10.00%
3.50% 9.00%
3.00% 8.00%
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
7/7/2022
6/3/2022
10/17/2022
12/24/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023
1/1/2022
7/7/2022
11/20/2022
2/4/2022
6/3/2022
10/17/2022
11/20/2022
12/24/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023
Source: Apptopia Source: Apptopia
Figure 12: NFLX DAU Growth - LATAM: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23 Figure 13: NFLX DAU Growth - APAC: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23
Y/Y Change in DAUs - LATAM Y/Y Change in DAUs - APAC

10.00%
9.50% 29.00%
9.00% 27.00%
8.50% 25.00%
8.00% 23.00%
7.50%
21.00%
7.00%
6.50% 19.00%
6.00% 17.00%
2/4/2022
10/17/2022
12/24/2022
1/1/2022
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
11/20/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023
15.00%
10/17/2022
11/20/2022
12/24/2022
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
3/10/2022
4/13/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
1/27/2023
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/27/2022
4/30/2022
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
2/13/2023
6
Figure 14: NFLX Downloads Growth - GLOBAL: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23 Key Download Takeaways:
Y/Y Change in Downloads - GLOBAL

• 1QTD Global Downloads (DLs) have declined -8% Y/Y,
improving from -17% Y/Y in 4Q. Going forward, NFLX could
50.00% benefit from the BWA launch expanding Netflix’s TAM.
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
• 1QTD APAC DLs have declined -12% Y/Y vs -14% Y/Y in 4Q.
10.00%
Overall, APAC remains NFLX’s least penetrated geo, with India,
0.00% Japan, & South Korea representing key growth opportunities.
-10.00%
-20.00% • Other regions’ 1QTD DLs trends: -7% Y/Y for UCAN (-18% in
-30.00% 4Q), -10% Y/Y for EMEA (-21% in 4Q), +1% Y/Y for LATAM
-40.00%
-50.00%
(-12% in 4Q).
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
10/17/2022
11/20/2022
12/24/2022
Source: Apptopia
Figure 15: NFLX Downloads Growth - UCAN: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23 Figure 16: NFLX Downloads Growth - EMEA: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23
Y/Y Change in Downloads - UCAN Y/Y Change in Downloads - EMEA

60.00% 30.00%
20.00%
40.00%
10.00%
20.00%
0.00%
0.00% -10.00%
-20.00%
-20.00%
-30.00%
-40.00%
-40.00%
-60.00% -50.00%
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
11/20/2022
12/7/2022
12/24/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
3/27/2022
6/20/2022
10/17/2022
2/13/2023
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
10/17/2022
11/20/2022
12/24/2022
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023
Figure 17: NFLX Downloads Growth - LATAM: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23 Figure 18: NFLX Downloads Growth - APAC: 1/1/22 to 2/15/23
Y/Y Change in Downloads - LATAM Y/Y Change in Downloads - APAC

60.00% 95.00%
40.00% 75.00%
55.00%
20.00%
35.00%
0.00%
15.00%
-20.00%
-5.00%
-40.00% -25.00%
-60.00% -45.00%
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
10/17/2022
11/20/2022
12/24/2022
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
2/13/2023
-65.00%
1/18/2022
2/21/2022
3/10/2022
3/27/2022
4/13/2022
4/30/2022
5/17/2022
6/20/2022
7/24/2022
8/10/2022
8/27/2022
9/13/2022
9/30/2022
11/3/2022
12/7/2022
1/10/2023
1/27/2023
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10/17/2022
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12/24/2022
1/1/2022
2/4/2022
6/3/2022
7/7/2022
7
Netflix & Industry News
• Nielsen’s “The Gauge” estimates streaming’s share of overall US Total Usage of

Television (TUT) remained flat M/M at 38.1% in January, above both Cable
(30.4%) & Broadcast (24.9%). NFLX’s share remained flat M/M at 7.5% of
TUT, trailing YouTube (8.6%) but above Hulu (3.5%), Prime Video (2.9%), &
Disney+ (1.7%).
• Our Take: Overall, we remain bullish on the secular shift toward OTT video
streaming, w/streaming now approaching 40% of US TV Time, & above
Cable since July. Importantly, as the streaming industry becomes more
rational, we believe NFLX benefits through its strong scale & industry-
leading position, while continued strong content, the ad tier and Paid Sharing
should further support future growth.
Figure 19: Streaming ~38% of US TUT per Nielsen’s “The Gauge” – January 2023
Other, 6.6%
NFLX, 7.5%
YouTube,
Broadcast, 8.6%
24.9%
DIS+, 1.7% Total

Streaming,
Hulu, 3.5% 38.1%
HBO Max, 1.3%
Other
Streaming,
15.6%
Cable, 30.4%
Source: Nielsen.
8
• The UK’s Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board (BARB) estimates

SVOD/AVOD share of overall UK viewing reached 15.5% in January & w/
average viewing ~40 minutes/day, trailing broadcaster viewing (66.7%
share, ~172 minutes/day) & video-sharing (17.7% share, ~46 minutes/day).
• Our Take: While broadcast viewing remains the primary method of

consumption within the UK, we’re encouraged SVOD/AVOD comprises
~15.5% share of UK viewing time and believe the secular shift toward
OTT video streaming remains healthy.
Figure 20: BARB UK Viewing Market Share Analysis - January 2023 Figure 21: BARB UK Viewing Time (Minutes : Seconds) - January 2023
Platform Minutes: Seconds

Broadcaster Viewing 172:03
Broadcaster
Viewing, 66.7%
Video-Sharing 45:44
Video-Sharing,
17.7% SVOD/AVOD 40.02
SVOD/AVOD,
15.5%
Source: Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board (BARB). Source: Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board (BARB).
• Nielsen recently introduced “The Gauge” within Mexico & Poland. As of

December 2022, Nielsen estimates Streaming comprised 15.2% share of Mexico
TUT, trailing Broadcast (35.6%) & Pay TV (16%). Nielsen also estimates that
NFLX maintained 3.7% share of Mexico TUT, below YouTube (7.9%), but
above Disney+ (0.5%). Within Poland, Nielsen estimates Streaming comprised
5.6% share of TUT, trailing Satellite (36.5%),Cable (28.7%), & Terrestrial
(23.1%). Nielsen estimates that NFLX maintained 1.8% share of TUT, above
YouTube (1.3%). Meanwhile, Kantar launched its analysis of Brazil TV
viewing. As of January 2023, Kantar estimates SVOD/AVOD represented 6.5%
of Brazil TV viewing, trailing Linear TV at 84.8%. Kantar also estimates
NFLX maintained 4.8% share of Brazil TV viewing, above Globoplay (0.7%),
& Amazon Prime Video (0.5%).
• Our Take: Streaming’s share of TV time trails more popular methods of

consumption within Mexico, Poland, & Brazil, suggesting the secular shift
toward OTT streaming has headroom in many international markets. NFLX
itself has <5% share of TV time across Mexico, Poland, & Brazil, with room to
grow through localized originals & ongoing secular shift.
• Netflix recently added two new features to the Premium Plan ($19.99/
mo). Specifically, NFLX added spatial audio, which will help bring
immersive, cinematic sound experience to 700+ titles. Additionally,
NFLX increased the number of devices that Premium members can
download to from four to six.
9
• Our Take: Overall, NFLX continues to increase the value

proposition of its subscription offerings by enhancing the user
experience, improving personalization & recommendation
capabilities, & scaling the content library. As such, we believe the
addition of Spatial Audio & increased number of downloads
available within the Premium Plan should further help NFLX
differentiate its highest level subscription tier.
Figure 22: Netflix U.S. Streaming Plans
Price Plan Details Downloads

Basic with Ads $6.99 1 screen, HD NM
Basic $9.99 1 screen, HD 1 Device
Standard $15.49 2 screens, Full HD 2 Devices
Premium $19.99 4 screens, Ultra HD 6 Devices
Source: Company Website. Note: Premoum Tier offers Spatial Audio on select titles.
• Nielsen recently published data capturing the Top 15 most viewed pieces of
content within the US for 2022 across 4 categories – overall, original, acquired,
& film content. As indicated below, NFLX captured 37 of these top 60 spots,
including 10 of the top 15 overall.
• Our Take: We continue to believe NFLX’s content quality & breadth across
originals & exclusives creates a compelling competitive advantage while driving
strong engagement & retention. As we highlighted in our NFLX 10-K Key
Takeaways report on 1/30, more than 60% (~$20B) of NFLX’s content assets are
produced content, up from 40% in 2019 (~$10B). We expect the % of produced
content to continue to increase, and the shift reflects that NFLX has completed
the most cash-intensive part of its transition to originals & self-produced content.
Looking forward, we project cash content spending of $16.4B in 2023 (-2% Y/Y,
1.1x cash:amort ratio), $17.2B in 2024 (+5% Y/Y, 1.0x), & $18.5B in 2025
(+7% Y/Y,1.0x). In terms of the charts below, we recognize that NFLX’s larger
US user base gives it an inherent advantage in minutes viewed. We also call out
NFLX’s weakest area in Films, where it captured 5 of the top 15, and Disney+
captured 10 of the top 15.
Figure 23: US Top 15 Overall Content: 2022 (NFLX 10 of 15) Figure 24: US Top 15 Original Content: 2022 (NFLX 13 of 15)
2022 TOP 15 2022 TOP 15
OVERALL Overall Streamer Minutes Viewed (B) OVERALL Original Streamer Minutes Viewed (B)
1 Stranger Things NFLX 52.0 1 Stranger Things NFLX 52.0
2 NCIS Various 38.1 2 Ozark NFLX 31.3
3 CoComelon NFLX 37.8 3 Wednesday NFLX 18.6
4 Ozark NFLX 31.3 4 Cobra Kai NFLX 16.7
5 Encanto Disney+ 27.4 5 Bridgerton NFLX 14.0
6 Grey's Anatomy NFLX 26.8 6 Virgin River NFLX 13.6
7 Criminal Minds Various 24.9 7 DAHMER NFLX 13.4
8 Bluey Disney+ 21.1 8 Love is Blind NFLX 13.1
9 Gilmore Girls NFLX 20.8 9 Inventing Anna NFLX 12.9
10 Seinfeld NFLX 19.3 10 The Crown NFLX 12.7
11 Supernatural NFLX 18.8 11 The Boys Prime Video 10.6
12 Wednesday NFLX 18.6 12 Great British Baking Show NFLX 10.6
13 Heartland NFLX 18.0 13 Umbrella Academy NFLX 10.5
14 Cobra Kai NFLX 16.7 14 The Last Kingdom NFLX 10.4
15 The Simpsons Disney+ 15.9 15 The Rings of Power Prime Video 9.4
Total 387.5 Total 249.8
Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen
10
Figure 25: US Top 15 Acquired Content: 2022 (NFLX 9 of 15) Figure 26: US Top 15 Films Content: 2022 (NFLX 5 of 15)
2022 TOP 15 2022 TOP 15
OVERALL Acquired Streamer Minutes Viewed (B) OVERALL Films Streamer Minutes Viewed (B)
1 NCIS Various 38.1 1 Encanto Disney+ 27.4
2 CoComelon NFLX 37.9 2 Turning Red Disney+ 11.4
3 Grey's Anatomy NFLX 26.8 3 Sing 2 NFLX 11.3
4 Criminal Minds Various 24.9 4 Moana Disney+ 8.6
5 Bluey Disney+ 21.1 5 The Adam Project NFLX 6.1
6 Gilmore Girls NFLX 20.8 6 Hocus Pocus 2 Disney+ 5.7
7 Seinfeld NFLX 19.3 7 Don't Look Up NFLX 5.1
8 Supernatural NFLX 18.8 8 Frozen Disney+ 5.1
9 Heartland NFLX 18.0 9 Luca Disney+ 5.0
10 The Simpsons Disney+ 15.9 10 The Gray Man NFLX 5.0
11 Friends HBO Max 14.5 11 Zootopia Disney+ 4.4
12 The Blacklist NFLX 14.0 12 Coco Disney+ 4.3
13 New Girl NFLX 14.0 13 Eternals Disney+ 4.2
14 Spongebob Squarepants Prime Video 13.9 14 Frozen II Disney+ 4.2
15 Shameless NFLX 13.6 15 Uncharted NFLX 4.2
Note: Highlighted titles represent Netflix-exclusive content. Disney+ (DIS), Hulu (DIS), & HBO Max
(WBD) covered by JPM Telecom Services, Cable, & Satellite/Media/Communications Infrastructure
Analyst Phil Cusick
11
Figure 27 below shows worldwide Google search interest since the start of 1Q for
popular content releases on Netflix & other streaming platforms.
Figure 27: Search Interest for Select Netflix & Other Content Since 1/1/23
12
Global NFLX Viewership Data

Netflix publishes “Top 10 on Netflix,” a dedicated website tracking weekly global &
country-specific lists of the platform’s most popular content, which the company
updates weekly. The Top 10 lists are based on hours viewed from Monday to Sunday the
previous week, including both original & licensed content. See Figures 28-31 below for
Netflix’s global Top Ten lists for the period 2/6-2/12.
Figure 28: Global Top 10 English Series: 2/6/23 to 2/12/23 Figure 29: Global Top 10 Non-English Series: 2/6/23 to 2/12/23
2/6/23 - 2/12/23 2/6/23 - 2/12/23
OVERALL English Series Hours Viewed (M) OVERALL Non-English Series Hours Viewed (M)
1 You S4 92.07 1 Physical 100 S1 41.61
2 Ginny & Georgia S2 25.71 2 Crash Course in Romance S1 21.04
3 Wednesday S1 22.65 3 The Snow Girl 19.61
4 You S1 19.24 4 La Reina del Sur S3 19.61
5 Ginny & Georgia S1 15.79 5 True Beauty 16.51
6 New Amsterdam S1 15.41 6 The Interest of Love S1 12.39
7 Lockwood & Co S1 15.37 7 Alchemy of Souls P2 11.61
8 Love is Blind S3 12.53 8 Love to Hate You S1 11.27
9 You S3 11.44 9 Class S1 9.91
10 New Amsterdam S4 10.21 10 Til Money Do Us Part S1 9.33
W/W 22% W/W -14%
Source: Company website Source: Company website
Figure 30: Global Top 10 English Films: 2/6/23 to 2/12/23 Figure 31: Global Top 10 Non-English Films: 2/6/23 to 2/12/23
2/6/23 - 2/12/23 2/6/23 - 2/12/23
OVERALL English Films Hours Viewed (M) OVERALL Non-English Films Hours Viewed (M)
1 Your Place or Mine 51.23 1 Viking Wolf 21.48
2 True Spirit 20.73 2 Infiesto 12.94
3 You People 20.40 3 Thunivu 4.05
4 Bloodshot 14.38 4 Thunivu (Hindi) 3.73
5 Minions: The Rise of Gru 11.50 5 All Quiet on the Western Front 3.66
6 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 9.11 6 Vadh 3.08
7 Pamela, a love story 8.71 7 I Like It But It Scares Me 2.62
8 Sniper: Ultimate Kill 6.76 8 Narvik 2.52
9 Enough 5.40 9 My Name is Vendetta 2.24
10 Sniper: Ghost Shooter 5.39 10 Troll 2.18
W/W -9% W/W -29%
13
Key Content Takeaways:
• Notable Upcoming Content Releases: Following strong content into year-end, we

continue to believe NFLX is getting back on track in terms of content consistency
after releasing ~45% of its most popular hits ever in 2022. Looking ahead, we’re
expecting solid releases from Outer Banks S3 (returning series, 2/23 debut),
Formula 1: Drive to Survive S5 (returning series, 2/24 debut), We Have a Ghost
(Jennifer Coolidge, 2/24 debut), Chris Rock: Selective Outage (first live-streaming
event, 3/4 debut), Luther: The Fallen Sun (Idris Elba, 2/24 theatrical debut & 3/10
streaming debut), Shadow & Bone S2 (returning series, 3/16 debut), & Murder
Mystery 2 (Jennifer Aniston/Adam Sandler, 3/31 debut).
14
Global NFLX Viewership Data: All-Time

Figure 32: Global Top 10 English Series: All Time Figure 33: Global Top 10 Non-English Series: All Time
OVERALL English Series Hours Viewed (M) OVERALL Non-English Series Hours Viewed (M)
1 Stranger Things 4 1,352.09 1 Squid Game S1 1,650.45
2 Wednesday S1 1,237.15 2 Money Heist P5 792.23
3 DAHMER Monster 856.22 3 Money Heist P4 619.01
4 Bridgerton S2 656.26 4 All of Us Are Dead S1 560.78
5 Bridgerton S1 625.49 5 Money Heist P3 426.40
6 Stranger Things 3 582.10 6 Extraordinary Attorney Woo S1 402.47
7 Lucifer S5 569.48 7 Café con aroma de mujer S1 326.91
8 The Witcher S1 541.01 8 Lupin P1 316.83
9 Inventing Anna 511.92 9 Elite S3 275.30
10 Ginny & Georgia S2 504.78 10 Who Killed Sara? S1 266.43
Figure 34: Global Top 10 English Films: All Time Figure 35: Global Top 10 Non-English Films: All Time
OVERALL English Film Hours Viewed (M) OVERALL Non-English Film Hours Viewed (M)
1 Red Notice 364.02 1 Troll 155.56
2 Don't Look Up 359.79 2 Blood Red Sky 110.52
3 Bird Box 282.02 3 The Platform 108.09
4 Glass Onion 279.74 4 All Quiet on the Western Front 101.36
5 The Gray Man 253.87 5 Black Crab 94.13
6 The Adam Project 233.16 6 Through My Window 92.44
7 Extraction 231.34 7 The Takedown 78.63
8 Purple Hearts 228.69 8 Below Zero 78.30
9 The Unforgivable 214.70 9 My Name Is Vendetta 68.73
10 The Irishman 214.57 10 Loving Adults 67.34
Note: Highlighted titles debuted on Netflix in 1Q23
15
Nielsen Data
Nielsen publishes data capturing the Top 10 content streamed within the US across
overall, original, acquired, & film content. The Top 10 lists are based on minutes viewed
in a specific timeframe & we note Nielsen data is delayed by ~1 month. See Figures 36-
39 below for Nielsen’s US Top Ten lists for the period 1/16-1/22. As indicated below,
NFLX captured 24 of these top 40 spots, including 7 of the top 10 overall.
Figure 36: US Top 10 Overall Content: 1/16/23 to 1/22/23 (NFLX 7 of 10) Figure 37: US Top 10 Original Content: 1/16/23 to 1/22/23 (NFLX 7 of 10)
1/16/23 - 1/22/23 1/16/23 - 1/22/23
OVERALL Overall Streamer Minutes Viewed (M) OVERALL Original Streamer Minutes Viewed (M)
1 Ginny & Georgia NFLX 1,804 1 Ginny & Georgia NFLX 1,804
2 That '90s Show NFLX 1,590 2 That '90s Show NFLX 1,590
3 The Walking Dead NFLX 1,103 3 Vikings: Valhalla NFLX 975
4 Vikings: Valhalla NFLX 975 4 Wednesday NFLX 711
5 CoComelon NFLX 885 5 Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan Prime Video 465
6 The Last of Us HBO Max 837 6 The Circle NFLX 366
7 Wednesday NFLX 711 7 Women at War NFLX 330
8 Bluey Disney+ 695 8 Kaleidoscope NFLX 321
9 NCIS NFLX 695 9 Hunters Prime Video 294
10 Criminal Minds Various 659 10 National Treausure: Edge of History Disney+ 294
Total 9,954 Total 7,150
W/W -3% W/W -7%
Figure 38: US Top 10 Acquired Content: 1/16/23 to 1/22/23 (NFLX 5 of Figure 39: US Top 10 Films: 1/16/23 to 1/22/23 (NFLX 5 of 10)
10)
1/16/23 - 1/22/23 1/16/23 - 1/22/23
OVERALL Acquired Streamer Minutes Viewed (M) OVERALL Films Streamer Minutes Viewed (M)
1 The Walking Dead NFLX 1,103 1 Dog Gone NFLX 395
2 CoComelon NFLX 885 2 Glass Onion NFLX 284
3 The Last of Us HBO Max 837 3 The Hatchet Wielding Hitchhiker NFLX 236
4 Bluey Disney+ 695 4 The Menu HBO Max 223
5 NCIS NFLX 695 5 The Pale Blue Eye NFLX 212
6 Criminal Minds Various 659 6 Jurrasic World Dominion Prime Video 210
7 Friends HBO Max 659 7 Encanto Disney+ 210
8 The Big Bang Theory HBO Max 621 8 Moana Disney+ 205
9 New Amsterdam NFLX/Peacock 615 9 Strange World Disney+ 200
10 Grey's Anatomy NFLX 598 10 JUNG_E NFLX 188
Total 7,367 Total 2,363
W/W 1% W/W -37%
Note: Highlighted titles represent Netflix-exclusive content. Disney+ (DIS), Hulu (DIS), & HBO Max
(WBD) covered by JPM Telecom Services, Cable, & Satellite/Media/Communications Infrastructure
Analyst Phil Cusick
16
NFLX Original Content Slate
Figure 40: Select NFLX 1Q Original Releases: 1/1/23 to 1/31/23
1Q23 1Q23 (Cont'd)
Jan 01 Kaleidoscope Series Jan 13 Trial By Fire Series
Jan 01 The Way of the Househusband S2 Anime Jan 19 Junji Ito Maniac: Japanese Tales of the Macbre Anime
Jan 04 MADOFF: The Monster of Wall Street Docuseries Jan 19 That '90s Show Series
Jan 04 The Lying Life of Adults Series Jan 20 Bake Squad S2 Series
Jan 04 The Kings of the World Film Jan 20 Bling Empire: New York Series
Jan 05 Copenhagen Cowboy Series Jan 20 Fauda S4 Series
Jan 05 Ginny & Georgia S2 Series Jan 20 JUNG_E Film
Jan 05 Woman of the Dead Series Jan 20 Represent Series
Jan 06 Pressure Cooker Series Jan 20 Shahmaran Series
Jan 06 The Pale Blue Eye Film Jan 24 Physical: 100 Series
Jan 10 Andrew Santino: Cheeseburger Comedy Jan 25 Against the Ropes Series
Jan 10 The Hatchet Wielding Hitchhiker Documentary Jan 25 The Price of Family Film
Jan 11 Noise Film Jan 26 Daniel Spellbound S2 Series
Jan 11 Sexify S2 Series Jan 26 Record of Ragnaarok S2 Ep 1-10 Anime
Jan 12 Kung Fu Panda: The Dragon Knight S2 Series Jan 27 Kings of Jo'Burg S2 Series
Jan 12 The Makanai: Cooking for the Maiko House Film Jan 27 Lockwood & Co. Series
Jan 12 Vikings: Valhalla S2 Series Jan 27 The Snow Girl Series
Jan 13 Break Point P1 Docuseries Jan 27 You People Film
Jan 13 Dog Gone Film Jan 30 Princess Power Series
Jan 13 Sky Rojo S3 Series Jan 31 Cunk on Earth Series
Source: Company website. Note: Bold highlight denotes JPM Internet view as key release
17
1Q23 (Cont'd) 1Q23 (Cont'd)
Jan 31 Pamela, a Love Story Documentary Feb 14 In Love All Over Again Series
Feb 01 Detective Conan: The Culprit Hanzawa Anime Feb 14 Perfect Match Series
Feb 01 Great British Baking Show: The Professionals S6 Series Feb 14 Re/Member Film
Feb 01 Gunther's Millions Docuseries Feb 15 African Queens: Nijanga Docuseries
Feb 02 MAKE MY DAY Anime Feb 15 Full Swing Docuseries
Feb 02 Freeridge Series Feb 15 Red Rose Series
Feb 03 Infiesto Film Feb 15 The Law According to Lidia Poet Series
Feb 03 True Spirit Film Feb 16 Aggretsuko S5 Anime
Feb 03 Stromboli Film Feb 16 The Upshaws P3 Series
Feb 03 Viking Wolf Film Feb 17 A Girl and an Astronaut Series
Feb 08 Bill Russell: Legend Documentary Feb 17 Community Squad Series
Feb 08 The Exchange Series Feb 17 Ganglands S2 Series
Feb 09 Dear David Film Feb 17 Unlocked Film
Feb 09 My Dad the Bounty Hunter Series Feb 20 Operation Finale Film
Feb 09 You S4 P1 Series Feb 22 Murdaugh Murders: A Southern Scandal Docuseries
Feb 10 Love is Blind: After the Altar S3 Series Feb 22 The Strays Film
Feb 10 Love to Hate You Series Feb 22 Triptych Series
Feb 10 Your Place or Mine Film Feb 23 Outer Banks S3 Series
Feb 13 Squared Love All Over Again Film Feb 24 Formula 1: Drive to Survive S5 Docuseries
Feb 14 All the Places Film Feb 24 Oddballs S2 Series
Feb 14 A Sunday Affair Film Feb 24 Pokemon Ultimate Journeys: The Series P2 Series
Feb 14 Jim Jefferies: High n' Dry Comedy Feb 24 We Have a Ghost Film
18
1Q23 (Cont'd) 1Q23 (Cont'd), 2Q23, 3Q23, & 4Q23
Feb 28 A Whole Lifetime with Jamie Demetriou Comedy Mar 22 The Kingdom S2 Series
Feb 28 Too Hot to Handle: Germany Series Mar 22 Waco: American Apocalypse Docuseries
Mar 01 Cheat Series Mar 23 The Night Agent Series
Mar 01 Tonight You're Sleeping With Me Film Mar 29 Wellmania Series
Mar 01 Wrong Side of the Tracks S2 Series Mar 30 Unstable Series
Mar 01 10 Days of a Good Man Film Mar 31 Black Clover: Sword of the Wizard King Anime
Mar 02 Framed! A Sicilian Murder Mystery S2 Series Mar 31 Kill Boksoon Film
Mar 02 Sex/Life S2 Series Mar 31 Murder Mystery 2 Film
Mar 03 Love at First Kiss Film Apr 06 War Sailor Series
Mar 03 Next in Fashion S2 Series Apr 06 Beef Series
Mar 04 Chris Rock: Selective Outage Live Apr 07 Transatlantic Series
Mar 08 Faraway Film Apr 19 Mighty Morphin Power Rangers:Once & Always Special
Mar 08 MH370: The Plane That Disappeared Docuseries Apr 27 A Tourist's Guide To Love Film
Mar 09 You S4 P2 Series May 04 Queen Charlotte Series
Mar 10 Luther: The Fallen Sun (2/24 theatrical release) Film May 12 The Mother Film
Mar 10 Outlast Series Jun 16 Extraction 2 Film
Mar 14 Ariyoshi Assists Series Jul 21 They Cloned Tyrone Film
Mar 14 Bert Kreischer: Razzle Dazzle Comedy Aug 11 Heart of Stone Film
Mar 15 Money Shot: The Pornhub Story Documentary Aug 25 Lift Film
Mar 16 Still Time Film Oct 13 Damsel Film
Mar 16 Shadow and Bone S2 Series Oct 27 Pain Hustlers Film
Mar 17 Dance 100 Series Nov 10 The Killer Film
Mar 17 Maestro in Blue Series Nov 17 A Family Affair Film
Mar 17 Sky High: The Series Series Nov 22 Leo Film
Mar 17 The Magician's Elephant Film Dec 08 Leave The World Behind Film
Mar 21 We Lost Our Human Special Dec 22 Rebel Moon Film
19
Figure 43: Select NFLX TBA Releases
Upcoming Releases Upcoming Releases (Cont'd)
Best. Christmas. Ever! Film One Piece Series
Boo! Film Players Film
Bridgerton S3 Series Qala Film
Carga Maxima (Overhaul) Film Reptile Film
Chada 'Xpress Film Rustin Film
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget Film Shirley Film
Choose Love Film Spaceman Film
Chupa Film The Archies Film
Happiness for Beginners Film The Deepest Breath Film
Khufiya Film The Monkey King Film
Love At First Sight Film The Mothership Film
Lupin P3 Series The Out-Laws Film
Maestro Film The Perfect Find Film
Monkey Man Film The Three Body Problem Series
Never Have I Ever S4 Series The Witcher S3 Series
Nimona Film Victim/Suspect Film
Nyad Film
20
Disney+ Original Content Slate
Figure 44: Select Disney+ Original Release Dates & TBA Releases
1Q23 1Q23 (Cont'd), 2Q23, & Upcoming Releases
Jan 04 Star Wars: The Bad Batch S2 Series Mar 15 Turning the Tables with Robin Roberts Series
Bono & The Edge: A Sort of Homecoming, with Dave

Jan 11 Chasing Waves Docuseries Mar 17 Documentary
Letterman
Jan 11 Gina Yei Series Mar 17 Boston Strangler Film
Jan 11 Superkitties Series Mar 22 Kiya & the Kimoja Heroes Series
Jan 11 Welcome to Chippendales Series Mar 22 Restaurants at the End of the World Series
Jan 18 King Shakir Recycle Series Mar 25 Saturdays S1 Series
Jan 18 Me & Mickey Short Mar 25 Secrets of Sulphur Springs S3 Series
Jan 18 Super Junior Last Man Standing Docuseries Mar 29 Mickey Mouse Funhouse S2 Series
Jan 20 Idina Menzel: Which Way to the Stage? Special Mar 31 Doogie Kamealoha, M.D. S2 Series
Jan 25 Extraordinary Series Mar 31 Prom Pact Film
Jan 25 Mila in the Multiverse Series Apr 04 The Crossover Series
Feb 01 Dead End Express S1 Series May 04 Star Wars: Visions V2 Series
Feb 01 The Chorus: Success, Here I Go S1 Series Avatar: The Way of Water (12/16 theatrical release) Film
Feb 01 The Proud Family: Louder and Prouder Series Agatha: Coven of Chaos (Marvel) Series
Feb 02 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (11/11 theatrical release) Film American Born Chinese Series
Marvel Studios'' Assembles: The Making of Black Panther:

Feb 08 Docuseries Armor Wars (Marvel) Series
Wakanda Forever
Feb 10 Dug Days: Carl's Date Short Ashoka Series
Feb 10 Marvel Studios Legends "Ant-Man" Short Daredevil: Born Again (Marvel) Series
Feb 10 Marvel Studios Legends "Hank & Janet" Short Echo (Marvel) Series
Feb 10 Marvel Studios Legends "Wasp" Short Ironheart (Marvel) Series
Feb 17 j-hope IN THE BOX Documentary Iwaju Series
Feb 22 The Low Tone Club Series Loki S2 (Marvel) Series
Feb 22 Voices Rising: the Music of Wakanda Forever Documentary Percy Jackson and The Olympians Film
Mar 01 The Mandalorian S3 Series Peter Pan & Wendy Film
Mar 01 Chibiverse Series Secret Invasion (Marvel) Series
Mar 08 Marvel's Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur Series Spider-Man: Freshman Year (Marvel) Series
Mar 08 MPower Series Star Wars: Rangers of the New Republic Series
Mar 08 Spidey and his Amazing Friends S2 Series Star Wars: The Acolyte Series
Mar 10 Chang Can Dunk Film What If…? S2 (Marvel) Series
Mar 15 Firebuds Series Win or Lose Series
Mar 15 Kiff Series X- Men '97 (Marvel) Series
Source: Company website. Note: Bold denotes JPM Internet view of key releases. Disney+ (DIS) covered by JPM Telecom Services, Cable, & Satellite/Media/
Communications Infrastructure Analyst Phil Cusick.
21
AMZN Prime Video Original Content Slate
Figure 45: Select Prime Video Original Release Dates
1Q23 1Q23 (Cont'd), 2Q23, 3Q23, & Upcoming Releases
Jan 06 The Rig S1 Series Mar 17 DOM S2 Series
Jan 13 Hunters S2 Series Mar 17 Swarm S1 Series
Jan 13 The Test S2 Series Mar 31 Monumental: Ellie Goulding at Kew Gardens Series
Jan 20 The Legend of Vox Machina Series Mar 31 The Power S1 Series
Jan 26 KSI: In Real Life Documentary Apr 21 Dead Ringers S1 Series
Jan 27 Engga Hostel Series Apr 21 Judy Blume Forever Film
Jan 27 Shotgun Wedding Film Sep 22 Hush Hush S1 Series
Feb 03 Harlem S2 Series TBA Air (4/5 theatrical release) Film
Feb 06 Casando a mi Ex Film TBA Amar é para os Fortes Series
Feb 10 Somebody I Used to Know Film TBA Cassandro Film
Feb 17 Carnival Row S2 Series TBA Gen V S1 Series
Feb 17 La Cabeza de Joaquin Murrieta S1 Series TBA Neighbours Series
Feb 03 Rowdy Documentary TBA One a Wing And a Prayer Film
Feb 21 Kathleen Madigan: Hunting Bigfoot Comedy TBA Queens on the Run S1 Series
Feb 23 Neighbours Series TBA Takeshi's Castle S1 Series
Feb 24 Die Hard Film TBA The Power Series
Feb 24 The Consultant S1 Series TBA The Ride Docuseries
Mar 03 Daisy Jones & The Six S1 Series TBA Written in the Stars S1 Series
Source: Company website. Note: Bold denotes JPM Internet view of key releases. Thursday Night Football (TNF) launched on Prime Video starting 9/15/22.
22
HBO Max Original Content Slate
Figure 46: Select HBO Max Original Release Date
1Q23 1Q23 (Cont'd) & 2Q23
Jan 03 The Menu Film Feb 02 Super Villains, The Investigation Series
Jan 06 Who's Talking to Chris Wallace? S2 Series Feb 06 C.B. Strike: Troubled Blood Series
Jan 11 In with the Old S3 Series Feb 07 All That Breathes Documentary
Jan 12 The Climb Series Feb 07 Empire of Light Film
Harley Quinn: A Very Problematic Valentine's Day Special

Jan 12 Velma Series Feb 09 Special
S3B
Jan 13 The Big Soiree Series Feb 10 Marcella Arguello: B*tch, Grow Up! Comedy
Jan 13 I Don't Like Driving Series Feb 11 Marc Maron: From Bleak to Dark Special
Jan 15 The Last of Us Series Feb 12 Puppy Bowl XIX Special
Jan 20 Cabin Chronicles S3 Series Feb 16 U.S. Women's Soccer vs Canada Sports
Jan 20 Game Theory with Bommani Jones S2 Series Feb 17 Poor Devil S1 Sports
Jan 20 Real Time with Bill Maher S21 Series Feb 19 Last Week Tonight with John Oliver S10 Series
Jan 20 YOLO: Silver Destiny S2 Series Feb 20 Ballmastrz: Rubicon Special
Feb 02 Dionne Warwick: Don't Make Me Over Documentary Apr 27 Love and Death Series
Feb 02 Flordelis: A Family Crime Series
Source: Company website. Note: Bold denotes JPM Internet view of key releases. HBO Max (WBD) covered by JPM Telecom Services, Cable, & Satellite/Media/Communications Infrastructure Analyst
Phil Cusick.
23
Hulu Original Content Slate
Figure 47: Select Hulu Original Release Dates
1Q23 1Q23 (Cont'd)
Jan 03 Fantasy Island S2 Series Feb 15 Love Trip: Paris Series
Jan 04 Will Trent Series Feb 15 Wu-Tang: An American Saga Series
Jan 05 Death in the Dorms Docuseries Feb 16 The Masked Singer S9 Series
Jan 09 Alert Series Feb 17 Animal Control Series
Jan 09 Koala Man S1 Series Feb 17 Animaniacs S3 Series
Jan 12 How I Caught My Killer S1 Docuseries Feb 20 American Idol S21 Series
Jan 12 Name That Tune S3 Series Feb 20 The Company You Keep Series
Jan 15 Cooks vs Cons S2-4 Series Feb 23 Snowfall Series
Jan 18 9-1-1 Lone Star S4 Series Feb 24 Bruiser Film
Jan 19 Web of Death Docuseries Mar 02 Dragons: The Nine Realms S5 Series
Jan 24 How I Met Your Father S2 Series Mar 06 History of the World, Part II Special
Jan 25 Extraordinary Series Mar 09 Farmer Wants a Wife Series
Jan 26 The 1619 Project Docuseries Mar 10 Unprisoned S1 Series
Jan 26 Killing County Docuseries Mar 10 FX's New York Presents: Sin-Eater Documentary
Feb 01 Taiwan Crime Stories S1 Series Mar 15 My Family Series
Feb 03 Killing Country: Complete Docuseries Docuseries Mar 17 Boston Strangler Film
Feb 08 Santo Maldito S1 Series Mar 23 The Lesson is Murder Docuseries
Stolen Youth: Inside the Cult at Sarah Lawrence:

Feb 08 Docuseries Mar 24 Up Here Series
Complete Docuseries
Feb 09 A Million Little Things Series Mar 29 Abonimable and the Invisible City Series
Feb 09 Not Dead Yet Series Mar 30 The Croods: Family Tree S6 Series
Feb 13 Next Level Chef S2 Series Mar 30 RapCaviar Presents S1 Series
Feb 15 Horario Estelar S1 Series Mar 31 Rye Lane Film
Source: Company website. Note: Bold denotes JPM Internet view of key releases. Hulu (DIS) covered by JPM Telecom Services, Cable, & Satellite/Media/Communications Infrastructure Analyst Phil
Cusick.
24
Key Theatrical Releases
Figure 48: Select Theatrical Release Dates

2023 2023 (Cont'd)
Jan 2023 M3GAN Film Jul 2023 Oppenheimer Film
Feb 2023 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Film Jul 2023 Barbie Film
Feb 2023 Knock at the Cabin Film Jul 2023 Captain Marvel 2 Film
Feb 2023 Cocaine Bear Film Aug 2023 Meg 2 Film
Mar 2023 Creed III Film Aug 2023 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Film
Mar 2023 Scream 6 Film Aug 2023 Haunted Mansion Film
Mar 2023 Shazam! Fury of the Gods aka Shazam 2! Film Aug 2023 Gran Turismo Film
Mar 2023 John Wick Chapter 4 Film Aug 2023 Blue Beetle Film
Mar 2023 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Film Sep 2023 The Equalizer 3 Film
Apr 2023 Super Mario Bros. Film Sep 2023 The Nun 2 Film
Apr 2023 Evil Dead Rise Film Oct 2023 Kraven the Hunter Film
May 2023 Guardians of the Galaxy V3 Film Oct 2023 PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Film
May 2023 Fast X Film Oct 2023 The Exorcist Film
May 2023 The Little Mermaid Film Nov 2023 Dune: Part Two Film
Jun 2023 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Film Nov 2023 The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Film
Jun 2023 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Film Nov 2023 Trolls 3 Film
Jun 2023 Elemental Film Nov 2023 Wish Film
Jun 2023 The Flash Film Dec 2023 Wonka Film
Jun 2023 Indiana Jones 5 Film Dec 2023 Ghostbusters 5 Film
Jul 2023 Insidious 5 Film Dec 2023 Migration Film
Jul 2023 Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning P1 Film Dec 2023 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Film
Source: HSX.com
25
Figure 49: Select Theatrical Release Dates

2024 2024 (Cont'd), 2025, & 2026
Feb 2024 Madame Web Film Jun 2024 Inside Out 2 Film
Mar 2024 Elio Film Jun 2024 Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning P2 Film
Mar 2024 A Quiet Place: Day One Film Jul 2024 Despicable Me 4 Film
Mar 2024 Kung Fu Panda 4 Film Jul 2024 Mufasa: The Lion King Film
Mar 2024 Godzilla vs. Kong 2 Film Jul 2024 Twisters Film
Mar 2024 Snow White Film Jul 2024 Thunderbolts Film
Mar 2024 Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse Film Sep 2024 Blade Film
Mar 2024 Mickey 17 Film Oct 2024 Joker 2 Film
Apr 2024 The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim Film Nov 2024 Deadpool 3 Film
May 2024 Captain America: New World Order Film Dec 2024 Avatar 3: The Seed Bearer Film
May 2024 Furiosa Film Dec 2024 Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Film
May 2024 The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Film Dec 2024 Wicked Film
May 2024 Imaginary Friends Film Feb 2025 Fantastic Four Film
May 2024 Inside Out 2 Film May 2026 Avengers: Secret Wars Film
Source: HSX..com
26
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Netflix Inc (Overweight; Price Target: $390.00)
Investment Thesis
We believe NFLX is a key beneficiary and driver of the ongoing disruption of linear TV, with
the company’s content performing well globally and driving a virtuous circle of strong
subscriber growth, more revenue, and growing profit. We expect NFLX to continue
benefiting from the global proliferation of Internet-connected devices and increasing
consumer preference for on-demand video consumption over the Internet, with NFLX
reaching 300M global paid subs by 2027. Additionally, the recent launch of NFLX’s ad-
supported tier, Basic with Ads (BWA), as well as the upcoming Paid Sharing launch in early
2023 should further help re-accelerate subscriber & revenue growth while driving high-
margin incremental revenue.
Valuation
Our December 2023 PT of $390 is based on 26.5x our ’24E GAAP EPS of $14.71, which
equates to 35x our $5B ’24E FCF (~3% FCF yield). This is a premium to large-cap TMT
peers MSFT & AAPL, both trading at ~23x ’24E GAAP EPS, which we think is justified
by NFLX's faster top- and bottom-line growth.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Netflix shares could perform below expectations if: 1) Customer acquisition growth does
not re-accelerate, limiting NFLX’s ability to further unlock the TAM; 2) Account sharing
& Advertising efforts do not generate strong results, limiting subscriber growth & revenue
upside; 3) NFLX does not efficiently reduce costs & Operating Margins do not expand; 4)
competitive offerings from Disney+ (incl. Hulu/ESPN+ bundle), Apple TV+, HBO Max,
Peacock, Discovery+, and Paramount+ gain notable traction and materially impact NFLX
subs...Hulu and AMZN are also more competitive; & 5) less valuation support and lack of
visibility into short-term subscriber trends.
27
Netflix Inc: Summary of Financials

Income Statement - Annual FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E
Revenue 29,698 31,616 35,246 40,244 - Revenue 8,203 8,672 9,054 9,316
COGS (17,333) (19,168) (21,048) (23,664) - COGS (4,810) (5,102) (5,253) (5,883)
Gross profit 12,365 12,447 14,198 16,581 - Gross profit 3,394 3,570 3,801 3,434
SG&A (3,897) (4,103) (4,466) (5,063) - SG&A (1,064) (1,082) (1,112) (1,209)
Adj. EBITDA 6,806 6,545 7,953 9,476 - Adj. EBITDA 1,891 2,047 2,245 1,770
D&A (612) (912) (1,099) (1,218) - D&A (258) (270) (280) (291)
Adj. EBIT 6,195 5,633 6,854 8,257 - Adj. EBIT 1,632 1,777 1,965 1,479
Net Interest (354) (369) (575) (542) - Net Interest (151) (141) (141) (141)
Adj. PBT 5,840 5,264 6,279 7,715 - Adj. PBT 1,481 1,636 1,824 1,338
Tax (724) (772) (879) (1,157) - Tax (207) (229) (255) (187)
Minority Interest - - - - - Minority Interest - - - -
Adj. Net Income 5,116 4,492 5,400 6,558 - Adj. Net Income 1,274 1,407 1,568 1,151
Reported EPS 11.24 9.95 11.98 14.71 - Reported EPS 2.82 3.12 3.48 2.56
Adj. EPS 11.24 9.95 11.98 14.71 - Adj. EPS 2.82 3.12 3.48 2.56
DPS - - - - - DPS - - - -
Payout ratio - - - - - Payout ratio - - - -
Shares outstanding 455 451 451 446 - Shares outstanding 451 451 450 450
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Ratio Analysis FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Cash and cash equivalents 6,028 5,147 7,267 10,254 - Gross margin 41.6% 39.4% 40.3% 41.2% -
Accounts receivable - - - - - EBITDA margin 22.9% 20.7% 22.6% 23.5% -
Inventories - - - - - EBIT margin 20.9% 17.8% 19.4% 20.5% -
Other current assets 2,042 4,119 4,184 4,200 - Net profit margin 17.2% 14.2% 15.3% 16.3% -
Current assets 8,070 9,266 11,451 14,454 -
PP&E 1,323 1,398 1,531 1,720 - ROE 38.0% 24.5% 24.5% 25.1% -
LT investments - - - - - ROA 12.2% 9.6% 10.7% 12.1% -
Other non current assets 35,191 37,930 39,454 39,941 - ROCE 18.9% 14.6% 16.3% 17.9% -
Total assets 44,585 48,595 52,436 56,115 - SG&A/Sales 13.1% 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% -
Net debt/equity 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -
Short term borrowings - - - -
Payables 837 672 1,211 805 - P/E (x) 31.0 35.0 29.0 23.7 -
Other short term liabilities 7,651 7,259 8,420 8,534 - P/BV (x) 10.0 7.6 6.7 5.4 -
Current liabilities 8,489 7,931 9,631 9,339 - EV/EBITDA (x) 22.2 23.2 18.8 15.2 -
Long-term debt 14,693 14,353 13,953 12,193 - Dividend Yield - - - - -
Other long term liabilities 5,553 5,533 5,605 5,623 -
Total liabilities 28,735 27,817 29,190 27,155 - Sales/Assets (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -
Shareholders' equity 15,849 20,777 23,246 28,959 - Interest cover (x) 19.2 17.7 13.8 17.5 -
Minority interests - - - - - Operating leverage 186.6% (140.4%) 188.8% 144.4% -
Total liabilities & equity 44,585 48,595 52,436 56,115 -
Revenue y/y Growth 18.8% 6.5% 11.5% 14.2% -
BVPS 34.81 46.04 51.59 64.96 -
EBITDA y/y Growth 33.0% (3.8%) 21.5% 19.1% -
y/y Growth 42.9% 32.3% 12.1% 25.9% -
Tax rate 12.4% 14.7% 14.0% 15.0% -
Net debt/(cash) 8,665 9,206 6,686 1,028 -
Adj. Net Income y/y Growth 85.3% (12.2%) 20.2% 21.4% -
EPS y/y Growth 84.8% (11.4%) 20.4% 22.7% -
Cash flow from operating activities 393 2,026 3,723 5,639 -
DPS y/y Growth - - - - -
o/w Depreciation & amortization 208 337 394 413 -
o/w Changes in working capital (242) (758) (1,335) (1,672) -
Cash flow from investing activities (1,340) (2,076) (527) (602) -
o/w Capital expenditure (525) (408) (527) (602) -
as % of sales 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% -
Cash flow from financing activities (1,150) (664) (1,100) (2,050) -
o/w Dividends paid - - - - -
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) 0 0 0 0 -
Net change in cash (2,184) (885) 2,096 2,987 -
Adj. Free cash flow to firm (159) 1,619 3,196 5,037 -
y/y Growth (108.3%)(1118.6%) 97.5% 57.6% -
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
28
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Important Disclosures
Market Maker: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC makes a market in the securities of Netflix Inc.
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Inc.
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member of their respective household(s) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of Netflix Inc.
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services provided were non-securities-related: Netflix Inc.
Potential Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services in the next three months from Netflix Inc.
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other than investment banking from Netflix Inc.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Netflix Inc, if any.
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Date Rating Price ($) Price Target
($)
16-Apr-20 OW 426.75 480
22-Apr-20 OW 433.83 535
17-Jul-20 OW 527.39 625
21-Oct-20 OW 525.42 615
23-Nov-20 OW 488.24 628
20-Jan-21 OW 501.77 685
21-Apr-21 OW 549.57 600
21-Jul-21 OW 531.05 625
08-Sep-21 OW 606.71 705
20-Oct-21 OW 639.00 750
06-Jan-22 OW 567.52 725
21-Jan-22 OW 508.25 605
20-Apr-22 N 348.61 300
29-Jun-22 N 179.60 230
20-Jul-22 N 201.63 240
19-Oct-22 OW 240.86 330
20-Jan-23 OW 315.78 390
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
29
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:

J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average
total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect
this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.]
Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s
(or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this
stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable,
the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India)
and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country
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analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com .
Coverage Universe: Anmuth, Doug: Airbnb (ABNB), Alphabet (GOOG), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Booking Holdings
(BKNG), Cardlytics (CDLX), Chegg, Inc. (CHGG), Chewy (CHWY), ContextLogic (WISH) (WISH), Criteo (CRTO), DoorDash (DASH),
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE), Farfetch (FTCH), Fiverr (FVRR), GoodRx (GDRX), Lyft (LYFT), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Nerdy (NRDY),
Netflix Inc (NFLX), Peloton (PTON), Pinterest (PINS), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Spotify (SPOT), TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP), Uber Technologies
(UBER), Vacasa (VCSA), ZipRecruiter (ZIP), eBay, Inc (EBAY), trivago (TRVG)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 01, 2023

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 48% 37% 14%
IB clients** 47% 45% 35%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 47% 40% 13%
IB clients** 65% 66% 55%
*Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
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Completed 20 Feb 2023 11:46 AM EST Disseminated 20 Feb 2023 05:00 PM EST
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J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

See page 29 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Source: Google Trends.

Source: Google Trends.

Figure 7: NFLX DAU Growth – GLOBAL – 1/1/19 to 2/15/23

Y/Y Change in DAUs - GLOBAL

Figure 8: NFLX Downloads Growth – GLOBAL – 1/1/19 to 2/15/23

Y/Y Change in Downloads - GLOBAL

Y/Y Change in DAUs - GLOBAL

Y/Y Change in DAUs - UCAN Y/Y Change in DAUs - EMEA

Y/Y Change in DAUs - LATAM Y/Y Change in DAUs - APAC

Source: Apptopia Source: Apptopia

Y/Y Change in Downloads - GLOBAL

Y/Y Change in Downloads - UCAN Y/Y Change in Downloads - EMEA

Y/Y Change in Downloads - LATAM Y/Y Change in Downloads - APAC

Source: Apptopia Source: Apptopia

Netflix & Industry News

• Nielsen’s “The Gauge” estimates streaming’s share of overall US Total Usage of

DIS+, 1.7% Total

• The UK’s Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board (BARB) estimates

• Our Take: While broadcast viewing remains the primary method of

Platform Minutes: Seconds

• Nielsen recently introduced “The Gauge” within Mexico & Poland. As of

• Our Take: Streaming’s share of TV time trails more popular methods of

• Our Take: Overall, NFLX continues to increase the value

Price Plan Details Downloads

Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen

Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen

Source: Google Trends.

Global NFLX Viewership Data

Key Content Takeaways:

• Notable Upcoming Content Releases: Following strong content into year-end, we

Global NFLX Viewership Data: All-Time

Note: Highlighted titles debuted on Netflix in 1Q23

Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen

Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen

NFLX Original Content Slate

Figure 40: Select NFLX 1Q Original Releases: 1/1/23 to 1/31/23

1Q23 1Q23 (Cont'd)

Jan 01 Kaleidoscope Series Jan 13 Trial By Fire Series

Jan 05 Copenhagen Cowboy Series Jan 20 Fauda S4 Series

Jan 05 Ginny & Georgia S2 Series Jan 20 JUNG_E Film

Jan 05 Woman of the Dead Series Jan 20 Represent Series

Jan 06 Pressure Cooker Series Jan 20 Shahmaran Series

Jan 11 Noise Film Jan 26 Daniel Spellbound S2 Series

Jan 11 Sexify S2 Series Jan 26 Record of Ragnaarok S2 Ep 1-10 Anime

Jan 12 Vikings: Valhalla S2 Series Jan 27 The Snow Girl Series

Jan 13 Break Point P1 Docuseries Jan 27 You People Film

Jan 13 Dog Gone Film Jan 30 Princess Power Series

Jan 13 Sky Rojo S3 Series Jan 31 Cunk on Earth Series

Figure 41: Select NFLX 1Q Original Releases: 1/31/23 to 2/24/23

1Q23 (Cont'd) 1Q23 (Cont'd)

Feb 01 Gunther's Millions Docuseries Feb 15 African Queens: Nijanga Docuseries

Feb 02 MAKE MY DAY Anime Feb 15 Full Swing Docuseries

Feb 02 Freeridge Series Feb 15 Red Rose Series

Feb 03 True Spirit Film Feb 16 Aggretsuko S5 Anime

Feb 03 Stromboli Film Feb 16 The Upshaws P3 Series