Offshire Grid Mediterreanée UE
Offshire Grid Mediterreanée UE
Offshire Grid Mediterreanée UE
Written by :
Konstantin Staschus, Iza Kielichowska, Lou Ramaekers, Carmen Wouters, Barry Vree, Ainhoa Villar
Lejarreta, Lennard Sijtsma, Guidehouse Netherlands B.V.
Frank Krönert, Simon Lindroth, Gustaf Rundqvist Yeomans, SWECO
November – 2020
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Directorate-General for Energy
Directorate B - Internal Energy Market
Unit B1 - Networks & Regional Initiatives
European Commission
B-1049 Brussels
Study on the offshore grid
potential in the Mediterranean
region
Final Report
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2020 EN
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Executive summary
The Mediterranean Sea region is becoming increasingly interested in the application of clean
energy technologies, both on- and offshore. Therefore, there is a need to identify the potential
for a joint regional effort in developing offshore energy and supporting grid infrastructure,
following similar studies for the North and Baltic Seas.
Croatia Malta
Cyprus Slovenia
France Spain
Greece Portugal
Italy
The analysis covered five energy technologies: offshore wind (bottom-fixed and floating
technologies), wave and tidal energy, onshore wind, and solar technologies in islands. This final
study presents the results of the analysis followed by a broad stakeholder consultation.
In terms of forecasting, this study presents estimates for the technical and the economic
potential for offshore renewable energy and renewable energy on islands in the Mediterranean
region for the years 2030 and 2050. We have analysed the natural potential, limited by the
spatial constraints, nature protection areas, maritime and (partly) military use, and technology-
specific exclusions such as water depth and visual impact.
The assessment shows that floating offshore wind is the most suitable technology due to large
available areas with favourable wind speeds, suitable water depths, and relatively high capacity
factors, resulting in a technical potential of approximately 4,600 TWh/aby 2030 and 4,700
TWh/a by 2050. The technology is not fully mature, but it is promising as costs are expected to
fall. Onshore technologies on islands, such as onshore wind and rooftop and utility-scale solar
PV, are promising technologies due to their maturity level, regulatory readiness, projected cost
levels, and social acceptance (in the case of solar). The technical potential is 60 TWh/a for
onshore wind on islands in 2050 and 207 TWh/a for solar PV on islands in 2050. Wave energy
has a good technical potential at 4,500 TWh/a) by 2050, comparable to floating offshore wind.
However, this technology is still less mature and more expensive than the aforementioned
offshore and onshore technologies, and further research, development, and innovation (RDI)
investments are required to overcome these barriers. Bottom-fixed offshore wind technical
potential is rather limited due to water depth constraints in the Mediterranean Sea and is
estimated at 60 TWh/a in 2050. However, bottom-fixed offshore wind is a mature technology,
making it suitable for deployment in specific parts of the Mediterranean region. The role for tidal
energy will be more limited due to its limited technical resource potential (22 TWh/a in 2050),
technology immaturity and high cost levels.
1
Guidehouse LLP completed its acquisition of Navigant Consulting, Inc. and its operating subsidiaries on
October 11, 2019. For more information, see: https://guidehouse.com/news/corporate-
news/2019/guidehouse-completes-acquisition-of-navigant.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
This study also presents the economic potential for renewable power production by estimating
the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each of the technologies and countries analysed for
2030 and 2050. Among offshore technologies, LCOE values for bottom-fixed offshore wind are
lower than for floating offshore; however, the difference is expected to decrease through 2050.
For wave and tidal technologies, LCOE values are significantly higher, but they are also on a
decreasing trend. LCOE levels for onshore technologies (i.e., wind and solar PV on islands) are
generally much lower than those for offshore technologies.
Some areas are prioritised above other regions for more practical reasons, such as the
availability of resources that can be utilised with more mature technologies or the possibility of
including the connection hub within a meshed grid. The final selection of TMAs covers a wide
range of the Mediterranean Sea from the Spanish Gulf of Cádiz to the Greek Aegean Sea,
presented in Figure ES-1.
The 10 TMAs proposed in the study do not cover the entire potential in the region. They simply
ranked highest in this study’s modelling, as presented in Table ES-1.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Therefore, a higher resolution analysis of the potentials is needed to fully understand RES
potential for each country in the region.
Production scenarios
Based on the identified economic offshore energy potential, this study develops two realistic
production scenarios for each of the selected countries for 2030 and 2050, focusing on the 10
selected TMAs. The scenarios differ regarding the ambition level (the amount of installed
offshore power generation capacity). The NECP scenario is less ambitious (2.4 GW offshore wind
in 2030 and 32.7 GW offshore wind in 2050) than the ambitious scenario (13.3 GW offshore
wind in 2030, about 76.0 GW offshore wind in 2050). Beyond these installations, there is
additional offshore capacity in France, Portugal, and Spain since not all of their coastline is
defined as Mediterranean.
Both scenarios are designed to reach or exceed the respective national renewables target for
2030. The ambitious scenarios add between 2% and 22% in RES share for 2030 for
each of the Mediterranean member states. This increase contributes to a higher RES share
in Europe and faster decarbonization.
120
100
CO2-emissions ]Mt]]
80
60
40
20
0
Portugal Spain France Italy Slovenia Croatia Greece Cyprus Malta
Reference_2020 Med Offshore - NECP_2030 Med Offshore - Ambitious_2030
Med Offshore - NECP_2050 Med Offshore - Ambitious_2050
Figure ES-4: CO2 emissions from power production 2020, 2030, and 2050 in
the different production scenarios
(Source: Sweco)
Grid options
This study concludes that the region does not require one meshed grid solution covering the
entire region. On the contrary, this study’s recommendation is considering several sub regional
hubs linking offshore installations with interconnectors.
This study develops two grid connection alternatives for connecting the identified production
blocks within the TMAs to the onshore transmission grid and to each other, if feasible: radial
and hub connections. For two of the TMAs, a cross-country interconnection was also
investigated as a third option.
The hub connection requires lower capital investment costs than the radial connection
alternatives because the hub connection utilizes a common interconnection for several
production blocks in a given area, thereby limiting the construction and material costs. On the
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
downside, this interconnection means a limited decrease in security of supply, as the outage of
a cable could mean loss of the output from more than one production block. Another difference
between the radial connection and the hub connection is that the former does not require
coordination of the different production blocks, whereas the latter assumes that the whole group
of production blocks is realized as a common project. A common hub project is more difficult to
achieve with a step-by-step approach and generally requires a bigger commitment in terms of
investments and policies. Thus, a comparison between the two options needs to consider not
only the summary costs but also the strategic choices involved.
A third option is feasible cross-country interconnectors based on the hub grid connection
alternative. This study found that the cross-country interconnection from Italy to Croatia in the
Gulf of Venice was not economically beneficial, whereas the interconnection from France to
Spain in the Gulf of Lion was economically beneficial.
Socioeconomic benefits
For 2030, this study concludes that the ambitious scenario with 13 GW RES
integration yields more benefits than the NECP scenario with 2 GW installed offshore
capacity by lowering power prices. The analysis disregards the cost for onshore grid
reinforcement, which was not quantified in this study. However, both scenarios require
considerable investments in offshore power generation, its connection to the land, and the
onshore grid, in addition to considerable reinforcement of the onshore grid itself.
To reach the RES integration of about 76 GW of offshore wind power capacity in the
Mediterranean in the ambitious scenario for 2050, about €120-130 billion of accumulated
investments is needed until 2050. These investments include investments in offshore production
assets and their grid connection to land but exclude onshore grid reinforcements and other
production assets or energy storage. However, opportunities for substantial socioeconomic gains
exist with the modelled investments in RES, as presented in Figure ES-5.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Key barriers
This study identifies a list of barriers and implementation challenges for offshore grid and
renewable development and groups them into 10 broader categories. Next, these barriers and
implementation challenges were ranked based on their impact on offshore grid and renewable
development in the Mediterranean.
The categories of barriers with the highest priority at a regional level are:
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Offshore grid and renewable generation technologies: grid connection and technology
maturity
Offshore RES generation related to support schemes
Administrative/governance processes
Social and environmental constraints
The study proposes a series of measures to overcome these hurdles, presented below.
Key recommendations
Regional cooperation in energy, grid, and spatial planning is key for cost optimisation of the
deployment of offshore RES technologies in the region. Following the analysis and the achieved
result of the study, the study’s authors propose the following recommendations.
This study recommends the following activities on the member state level:
Execute a more detailed analysis of potential for economically viable variable renewable
energy sources (vRES)- offshore and on islands, including detailed environmental and
spatial analyses.
Consider increasing the national level of ambition.
Revisit grid development plans, including development of sub regional hubs and linking
them to planned interconnectors the entire Mediterranean region.
Perform detailed analysis of RES costs.
Discuss ways of aligning support schemes/balancing and grid services within the specific
subregions.
Initiate programs promoting sustainable tourism.
Develop RES education programs to create more RES skills capacity in the job market
and expand the RES job skill base in the region across the entire value chain.
The EC plays a crucial role in facilitating sub regional and regional coordination of efforts also in
the Mediterranean region. Therefore, this study proposes that the EC prioritize the following:
Cross-border cost allocation (CBCA) framework for cost sharing supporting the
ongoing efforts of Med-TSO.
Coordination of CBCA principles via leading a dialogue with member states or even
developing the methodology
Financing
Providing measures to reduce the risks for projects in south and south eastern
Europe via an EU Renewable Energy Cost Reduction Facility or other facilitating
programs supported by EIB or EBRD
RDI
Supporting RDI for less mature technologies, such as wave, tidal, and floating
offshore
Optimization of grid planning on a regional level
Gulf of Lion has high floating offshore wind and wave potential, combined with the
interconnection between Spain and France.
Gulf of Venice possesses a very interesting opportunity in bottom-fixed offshore wind,
which could be connected to the shore with a hub connection and Italy-Croatia.
North Aegean Sea has substantial floating offshore wind and wave potential, with the
possibility of linking these offshore resources with the extended submarine grid for
interconnection of major islands in the Aegean Sea.
The TMA southwest of Sicily offers floating and bottom-fixed offshore wind
opportunities, large wave potential, and large onshore technology opportunities in Sicily
and nearby islands; it is possible to envisage technical solutions where the connection of
the production blocks is realised in parallel with the HVDC link in Italy-Tunisia or the two
projects being integrated as a single multipole HVDC link.
TMA Corsica-Sardinia, similarly to Sicily, offers large offshore floating wind energy
potential and potential for onshore technologies in the nearby islands. These offshore
resources could be connected to Italy, but it is possible to consider connecting it to an
HVDC interconnection between northern Italy and Tunisia, in parallel with the
connection of the production blocks, or being integrated as a single multipole HVDC link.
Further recommended work includes:
Analysis of the offshore RES potential for the whole region, including the non-EU
countries, in coordination with institutional partners such as Med-TSO, MEDREG or
(partly) the Energy Community, along with its potential impact on the environment and
potential interference with other economic activities in the sea
Bottom-fixed offshore wind potential around the Greek and Croatian islands as well as in
the Gulf of Venice
Onshore vRES potential in islands
Analyse the potential for novel technologies, such as floating PV, CSP, and P2X solutions
(green hydrogen generation) and (green) gas transmission.
Analyse flexibility potential including storage and demand response options
Further onshore grid reinforcement analysis for the whole region, taking into
consideration the RES potential and EU 2030 target realisation for interconnectivity, is
needed to understand the trade-offs between the lower cost of energy, a decrease in
CO2 emissions, and the cost of new infrastructure.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
The geographic scope of this study includes nine European Union (EU) member states in the
Mediterranean region: Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Spain, and Portugal.
This report provides an assessment of four technology categories:
Technology Assessment
Scenario 2030 Scenario 2050 Constraints
Performance Ranking
Analysis
A3
Tasks 1 and 2 investigated the current level of renewable energy sources (RES) development and
included performing a technology assessment. Task 3 used publicly available geographic
information system layers to limit potential offshore renewable areas in the Mediterranean with
key exclusion variables. Based on the available areas found, Tasks 4 and 5 calculated the available
resource potential in those areas and the LCOE, representing economic potential. Task 6 took a
detailed look at selected high potential areas in the Mediterranean and determined performance
2
This task used TYNDP 2018 (ENTSO-E, 2018d) as the TYNDP 2020 is not finalized yet. Although scenarios
and market studies are available for TYNDP 2020, specific projects of European relevance and their cost-
benefit analyses will only become available later in 2020.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
ranking cost curves. The detailed methodology and key findings are presented in the following
section.
Although Portugal does not have a Mediterranean Sea shore, it is involved in offshore
developments taking place in the south of Europe and could be interested in offshore grid
connections directly related to other Mediterranean offshore grid links. Portugal is in the process of
commissioning the first precommercial floating offshore wind project in the region (PrinciplePower,
2020). Meanwhile, the Spanish Canary Islands and the northern region touched by the Cantabrian
Sea have positioned themselves as two innovation hubs in southern Europe. These regions have
seen interesting developments with existing and future deployments of various floating structures
on different test sites: Oceanic Platform of the Canary Islands (PLOCAN) and Biscay Marine Energy
Platform (BiMEP) (Recharge News, 2020a; Recharge News, 2020b). In both of these regions,
several developers have recently expressed interest in deploying precommercial (50-60 MW) and
full-scale floating offshore wind farms (200 MW) that could become live as early as 2021 and
2024, respectively (Recharge News, 2019a; Recharge News, 2019b; The Olive press, 2020). If
these developments take place, the Canary Islands would be close to achieving its target of 310
MW by 2025 (AEE, 2019.). Although these regions are out of the geographical scope of this study,
ongoing prototype testing developments are directly linked to the future potential of floating wind
technology in Spanish Mediterranean waters, where no projects are currently in place.
Italy is well advanced in research studies for several wave energy prototype devices (Soukissian et
al., 2017). Spain and Portugal had installed a few wave prototype devices between 2008 and 2010
but decommissioned them shortly afterward (Soukissian et al., 2017). Since 2015, Greece has also
started testing and developing wave energy modules, and additional research activities have been
ongoing since 2017 (SINN Power Projects, 2020). Notably, the ongoing projects are still focused
on analysing the technical requirements of such technologies for further expansion to other areas
in the Mediterranean (WindPlus, 2017; Coiro, Troise, & Bizzarini, 2018).
Bottom-fixed offshore wind is the most mature technology among the considered offshore
technologies but has not seen any developments in the Mediterranean region (Soukissian et al.,
2017). This fact is primarily due to the characteristic bathymetry of the Mediterranean Sea and its
waters that are generally too deep (beyond 50 meters) to deploy this technology cost-effectively.
Due in part to the latter, regional policymakers have not focused on bottom-fixed offshore wind
(Soukissian et al., 2017). This trend partly explains the absence of an incentive to develop large-
scale offshore wind farms in the Mediterranean Sea. Table 1-1 gives a country overview of the
current state of deployment of offshore technologies in the Mediterranean region.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Croatia 03 03 03 03 03
Cyprus 04 04 04 04 04
France 05 05 06 07 07
Greece 05 05 06 07 0.058 7
Spain 05 05 06 017 18
017 18
(Source: Guidehouse)
Portugal has set the precedent for floating offshore wind in the region within the scope of the
study, and the country has concrete plans to reach 200 MW of installed capacity in the medium
term after the precommercial phase of the project is complete (Direção-Geral de Energia e
Geologia, 2019). Italy and Portugal are the frontrunners with respect to wave R&D projects, while
Greece has also reported some pilot activities in wave energy. Currently, no commercial tidal
projects exist, and development projects for tidal energy in the region are very scarce. A few
coastal locations in Croatia, Gibraltar, and the Strait of Messina (Italy) have caught the attention
of ocean energy experts to further assess the available wave and tidal resources (Soukissian et al.,
2017). Slovenia has limited offshore potential that is not yet fully recognised.
3
(Ministry of Environment and Energy, 2019)
4
(Department of Environment Cyprus, 2020)
5
(WindEurope, 2019b)
6
(WindEurope, 2019a)
7
(Collombet, 2018)
8
(SINN Power Projects, 2020)
9
(Ocean Energy Europe, 2017)
10
(Pisacane, Sannino, Carillo, Struglia, & Bastianoni, 2018)
1111
(Ocean Energy Europe, 2017)
12
(Ocean Energy Systems, 2020)
13
(Government of Malta, 2019)
14
(Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia, 2019)
1515
(Soukissian et al., 2017)
16
(Ministrstvo za infrastrukturo, 2020)
17
(Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a)
18
(Curto & Trapanese, 2018)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
of energy islands—may facilitate the process substantially and reduce the cost of renewable
energy in island communities (European Commission, 2020).
Some regional differences are worth noting in the relative deployment and renewable energy
resource penetration rates on the islands’ gross final electricity generation compared with the
mainland. This development is mainly driven by countries’ island-specific regulatory schemes put
in place in the past few years. Corsica (France) exceeds the national share of renewable electricity
generated, mainly thanks to hydropower (77% of renewable generation) and solar PV (18% of
renewable generation).23 The largest Italian islands, Sicily (32%) and Sardinia (32%), have similar
shares as the national averages.23 However, the smaller Italian and Greek islands have
significantly lower RES shares but have policies in place to change that, which will be discussed in
Section 1.1.2. On the other hand, the renewable electricity share is especially low in the Spanish
Balearic Islands compared with the national average at less than 10%.23 Similarly, Malta and
Cyprus have low shares of renewable electricity generation, around 5% and 8%, respectively. 23
For Croatian islands, it was not possible to establish the share of gross final renewable electricity in
relation to the national average.23 Slovenia has no islands, and therefore no onshore renewable
potential in the scope of this study.
Table 1-2 shows an overview of the deployed capacities solar PV and onshore wind on islands.
Solar PV capacities include both large-scale utility solar plants and rooftop solar PV systems.
19
(HEP Group)
20
(Institute of Public Finance, 2018)
21
(French Ministry for the Energy Transition, 2019)
22
Email correspondence with Permanent Representation of Greece to the European Union on March 9, 2020.
23
(Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017), Working communication from the Italian Permanent Representation,
31.07.2020, based on GSE Communication 31/12/2018 and Atlaimpianti GSE.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
For example, the regulation in Spain did not incentivize the development of rooftop solar PV
systems until very recently. In 2018, Spain’s new administration abolished a set of fees that were
charged to behind-the-meter distributed generation and storage assets (unofficially referred to as
the sun tax) and a set of burdensome administrative requirements for new residential PV systems
that were enacted in 2015 (Spain's Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism, 2015). The new
regulation encourages collective self-consumption of energy and established frameworks to
distinguish compensation of self-produced and unconsumed energy (Valdivia, 2019; Spain's
Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2019). Different types of self-
consumption are defined within the new framework. The novelty lies in the collective self-
consumption concept by which multiple consumers are associated with one PV generation system
that is not necessarily located on one’s own building. Also, the payment mechanism corresponding
to any surplus energy injected into the grid has been simplified. Consumers are now paid monthly
for systems up to 100 kW, and compensation amounts can go up to 100% of the value of the
energy consumed. In addition, administrative procedures have been simplified to a single-step
process for installations of up to 15 kW with surplus or 100 kW without surplus (Molina, 2019).
Therefore, solar PV deployment is expected to massively increase in Spain in the coming years.
More importantly, this new regulation will allow for lower energy system costs and prices,
especially on the islands (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017).
In Greece and Italy, however, onshore wind and rooftop solar PV are in a relatively advanced
stage of deployment. In addition, Greece enacted a new legislative framework for energy
communities in 2018 with the goal of opening the energy market to new civil cooperatives. This
framework would enable civil cooperatives to address the energy transition, increase the
penetration of RES and its local acceptance, and combat energy poverty (Ministry of Environment
& Energy of Greece, 2018). More recently, in May 2020, Greece enacted a new environmental law
(Law No. 4685/2020) that modernises the environmental regulation and establishes a simplified,
efficient, and fast licensing process for RES projects (Government of Greece, 2020). With this new
law, photovoltaic projects under 1 MW are exempt from obtaining a license. This law also
harmonises Greek law with EU Directives 2018/844/EU and 2019/692/EU and is anticipated to
accelerate the deployment of RES projects in the country even more. Already in 2016, the average
total RES integration in Greek islands amounted to 18.7%, reaching a 60% hourly penetration in
Crete (HEDNO, 2016).Overall, multiple factors explain the still limited development of onshore
wind farms and utility solar PV plants in the Mediterranean region:
Limited space availability in islands (Government of Malta, 2019) and competition for other
land uses such as agricultural activities (RSE S.p.A., n.d.)
A strong commitment to preserve the islands’ natural protected areas (RSE S.p.A., n.d.)
and safeguard the region’s key industry, tourism (Government of Malta, 2019; Conseil
Insular de Menorca)
Policy frameworks that still incentivize the use of fossil fuels in the islands’ power systems
(Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017)
Lack of interconnections between islands and the mainland, which could provide additional
flexibility to manage RES fluctuations efficiently and further increase RES development
(The need for interconnections is emphasized by the high yearly load variability due to the
influx and outflux of tourists.) (Soukissian et al., 2017; RSE S.p.A., n.d.)
Lack of adequate regulations and financial incentives, which is not encouraging the
installation of hybrid stations and storage that would significantly increase the deployment
and management of RES
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Portugal and Italy aim to install significant offshore wind capacity by 2030. However, Portugal has
not yet specified how that goal will be achieved (Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia, 2019), and
Italy has not finalized the split between bottom-fixed and floating technologies at the time of
preparing this report (Ministry of Economic Development (Italy), 2019).
Other countries display interest in and commitments to offshore wind but lack specific offshore
wind targets. Malta, for example, confirmed the current technological and economic infeasibility of
developing offshore wind farms in Maltese waters but is continuing to monitor further
developments in the technology (Government of Malta, 2019). Malta also considers floating solar
as a potential technological solution to the country’s specific context.
In its target scenario, Spain outlines a total joint onshore and offshore wind installed capacity of
approximately 40 GW in 2025 and 50 GW in 2030 (Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and
Demographic Challenge, 2020a). Spain’s NECP shows commitment to enabling public mechanisms
that will support the technologies that are not yet mature, such as offshore wind and ocean
energies; at the same time, it emphasizes addressing the peculiarities of the island territories
(Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a).
The NECP also proposes specific recurring tenders with adaptable pre-arranged volumes of
capacity tendered for offshore wind and ocean energy technologies as a means of delivering
flagship projects. In the case of floating offshore wind, Spain already sees increasing potential
within the 2030 horizon. Therefore, it will adapt its support mechanisms and the capacity volumes
tendered in renewable energy auction rounds due to the technology’s increasing competitiveness
and synergy with other strategic economic sectors (electro-intensive and naval industries). Public
financing will be made available subject to the needs of each specific renewable energy tender
(Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a).
Meanwhile, Spain’s Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge is
working on the roadmap for the development of offshore wind and marine energy and recently
launched the public consultation for these technologies. (Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition
and Demographic Challenge, 2020b; The Institute for Diversification and Energy Saving, 2020). In
parallel, the ministry is working on an update of Directive 2014/89 that has a twofold objective:
identification and analysis of sites that could provide the greatest offshore wind energy potential.
This update would also provide the time window for projects and identification of new testing sites
that can foster the sector’s development, especially around the islands’ waters (Spain's Ministry for
Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020c). This marine spatial planning (MSP)
update is expected to be ready no later than April 2021. While no specific target for offshore wind
is defined in Spain’s NECP today, this spatial planning update exercise could result in the addition
of concrete capacity targets in periodical NECP reviews (Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition
and Demographic Challenge, 2020b). On the other hand, Cyprus, Croatia, and Slovenia have no
plans for offshore wind development in their NECPs (Ministry of Environment and Energy, 2019;
Department of Environment Cyprus, 2020; Ministrstvo za infrastrukturo, 2020).
Wave and tidal technologies remain outside of the scope of many countries’ NECPs. For example,
Malta expresses interest in monitoring the still immature technology (Government of Malta, 2019),
and Spain refers to enabling public mechanisms to support demonstration projects of ocean energy
technologies (Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a).
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 1-3 gives a country overview of the 2030 targets and 2040 long-term outlooks for offshore
technologies in the Mediterranean region.
Table 1-3: 2030 targets and long-term outlook for offshore technologies in the
Mediterranean region (MW)24
Location/target Total offshore Bottom-fixed Floating Tidal Wave
wind offshore wind offshore wind energy energy
Greece 2040 22
Slovenia 2040
(Source: Guidehouse)
Among all countries, France is by far the most ambitious in setting targets with respect to offshore
wind technologies. Between 2020 and 2028, the total installed capacity in France should increase
24
Capacity targets for Spain refer to all coastal regions, including non-Mediterranean sites. These targets are
shown in italics in the table.
25
(Ministry of Environment and Energy, 2019)
26
(Department of Environment Cyprus, 2020)
27
(French Ministry for the Energy Transition, 2019)
28
Email correspondence with France’s permanent representation to the European Union on 21 July 2020.
29
(International Energy Agency, 2019)
30
the Italian target capacity of 900 MW by 2030 can be supposed completely bottom-fixed. Elaborations based
on a RSE study (RSE report 10000251, 2010, http://www.rse-web.it/documenti/documento/2906) were
made, based on the information provided by the Italian Permanent Representation in the working
communication, 31.07.2020
31
The 2025 target for industrial plants based on ISWEC device could be 12 MW, Working communication from
the Italian Permanent Representation, 31.07.2020
32
(Ministry of Economic Development (Italy), 2019)
33
(Government of Malta, 2019)
34
(Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia, 2019)
35
Email correspondence with Slovenia’s permanent representation to the European Union on February 19th,
2020.
36
(Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
from 0 MW to between 5.2-6.2 MW, including 500 MW in the Mediterranean Sea. By 2040, a total
capacity of 1,500 MW of floating offshore wind should at least be in service in the Mediterranean
Sea. However, this forecast will greatly depend upon the decisions on new tenders made in the
second half of the French energy plan in 2024-2028 and upon the length of administrative
procedures.
Italy and Portugal also stand out with relatively high 2030 offshore wind targets in the region.
Italy’s general offshore wind target amounts to 900 MW while Portugal aims to reach 300 MW of
floating offshore wind capacity by 2030. The wind conditions off the western and northern shores
of Portugal, Spain, and France are generally more suitable for offshore wind generation than wind
conditions off the Mediterranean shores, so the Mediterranean will likely play a smaller part in
these three countries’ ambitious targets.
Only Portugal and Spain have defined targets for wave and tidal technologies in 2030. In general,
the Atlantic waters represent better wave and tidal resources than the Mediterranean Sea. It can
therefore be expected that a large share of the Spanish and Portuguese target will be located off
the Atlantic coast. These targets are, nevertheless, relatively smaller in size compared to the other
technologies in scope with set targets: 50 MW in Spain (Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition
and Demographic Challenge, 2020a) and 70 MW in Portugal (Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia,
2019).
Both onshore wind and solar PV national capacity targets will play a key role in achieving countries’
renewable goals. For Italy, France and Spain in particular, national targets in the NECPs count
solar PV technology as the main contributor to meeting the renewable energy targets of the
countries’ power systems. This technology is anticipated to experience the highest increase in
terms of installed capacity in the coming years on a national level. France, Italy, and Spain are
expected see their solar installed capacity increase by 34 GW,37 33 GW, and 33 GW, respectively,
by 2030 (French Ministry for the Energy Transition, 2019; Ministry of Economic Development
(Italy), 2019; Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a).
However, many of the countries’ NECPs do not give a detailed explanation of specific targets or a
roadmap for islands to achieve sustainability goals by 2030 and beyond. Specific targets for islands
are mostly defined in Island Sustainable Energy Action Plans (ISEAPs), an initiative launched by
the EC to engage local authorities in implementing sustainable energy policies on islands.
Municipalities on islands in Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, and Spain submitted action plans
with differing ambition levels for 2020. Greek islands represented the highest level of ambition
overall (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017). However, only a few islands have submitted updated
targets and plans for 2030.
Except for some specific cases, overall NECPs and the data gathered from countries’ permanent
representations to the EU give an incomplete outlook on regional energy plans for Mediterranean
islands for the coming decade. Corsica in France and Menorca in Spain are two examples where
updated sustainability plans beyond 2020 have been made available. Therefore, determining how
ambitious the targets towards 2030 and beyond are in the Mediterranean region and substantial
differences within the region is not possible at this point.
Table 1-4 gives a country overview of the 2030 targets and 2040 long-term projections for
onshore technologies on Mediterranean islands.
Although little data is available on capacity rollout plans for onshore wind on islands, a very limited
increase in onshore wind deployment is expected in cases where 2030 island capacity targets are
known. This limited increase is mostly due to land use constraints on islands, including high
population density, and strong commitments to protect natural areas (Government of Malta,
2019). Corsica is an exception since it plans to increase its onshore wind capacity fivefold
compared to current 2020 deployments.
According to Cyprus and Malta 2030 targets, solar PV capacities will increase significantly
compared with onshore wind. However, according to a model-based projection of planned policies,
Malta’s 2040 solar PV projected capacity shows that its solar PV capacity deployment would
37
France is expected to reach 34 GW of additional solar capacity by 2028.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
decrease from a total installed capacity of 266 MWp to 88 MWp from 2030 to 2040; meanwhile,
the estimated generated electricity from conventional sources and interconnections is expected to
increase in the same time period (Government of Malta, 2019).
Table 1-4: Targets and long-term outlook for onshore technologies in the
Mediterranean region (MW)38
Location/target Solar PV Onshore wind
(Source: Guidehouse)
38
Capacity targets for Croatia, France and Italy refer to national targets, including the mainland. These targets
are shown in italics in the table.
39
(Ministry of Environment and Energy, 2019)
40
(Department of Environment Cyprus, 2020)
41
Email correspondence with Cyprus’ permanent representation to the European Union on March 6 th, 2020.
42
(French Ministry for the Energy Transition, 2019)
43
(Dodd, 2019)
44
(Ministry of Economic Development (Italy), 2019)
45
(Government of Malta, 2019)
46
(Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, 2020a)
47
(Regional Government of the Balearic Islands, 2019)
48
(Conseil Insular de Menorca)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Menorca remains one of the most ambitious Mediterranean islands in Spain with a full
decarbonisation plan prepared through 2030. Compared to its peers Mallorca and Ibiza, Menorca
announced that it aims to meet 85% of its electricity demand with renewable sources by 2030.
Additionally, Menorca plans to ramp up its deployment of rooftop PV systems (Conseil Insular de
Menorca). Similarly, the Croatian island Krk started its energy transition in 2011 with the
development of its ISEAP. Krk is now the frontrunner island in Croatia, and it plans to reach 100%
decarbonization by 2030 (Ministry of Environment and Energy, 2019). The ambitious trends set by
Menorca, Krk, and other islands could set an example for other islands to follow.
CSP technology, though not considered in the scope of this study, stands out in some islands’
energy plans. Due to this technology and others, Cyprus is expected to see an increase from 0 MW
in 2020 to 50 MW in 2030 and to 500 MW in 2040 (Biscay Marine Energy Platform (BiMEP)).
Technology capacity targets for the year 2050 are non-existent on a national level, let alone a
regional level. Only a few scenario estimates for onshore technologies have been provided in an
interview with Cyprus’ EC permanent representative. Table 1-5 shows a 2050 scenario estimate for
Cyprus. Given the significant increase in CSP capacity in Cyprus, other countries that include CSP
in their future energy mix might also see a significant rise in CSP installed capacity.
(Source: Guidehouse)
On the other hand, France, Greece, Italy, and Spain49 have plans to schedule island-specific
competitive tenders for onshore wind and solar technologies (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017;
Tsagas, 2018; GlobalData Energy, 2020; Bellini, Spain’s Balearic Islands assign 362 MW of solar in
auction, 2019). Corsica (France) already held island-specific tenders in 2016 and 2017 for solar-
plus-storage projects. After the successful 2018 and 2019 tenders in the Canary Islands, Spain has
now held its first RES tender in the Balearic Islands (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017; Tsagas,
2018). Cyprus, Croatia, and Slovenia have no plans for offshore wind development in their NECPs
as indicated in Section 1.1.
Greece aims to reach RES penetration levels in excess of 60% in the non-interconnected islands
(NIIs). For this goal, the Greek Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE) has issued competitive
tenders for smart islands, focusing especially on hybrid plants that include storage (Government of
Greece, 2019). More specifically, the issued competitive tenders concern the islands of Antipole,
Semi, and Merits, which are pending the relevant Ministerial Decision.50 In addition to these
tenders, Greece grants higher feed-in tariffs to projects on NIIs compared with projects on the
mainland (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017). Greece holds technology-specific auctions for projects
on the mainland and on islands that are interconnected to the mainland. The last two solar PV
49
The Spanish Wind Association (AEE) calls for at least 3 GW of offshore (from the 50 GW), source:
WindEurope, 16.07.2020
50
Email correspondence with Greece’s permanent representation to the European Union on 7th August, 2020
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
auctions took place in 2018. Projects on NIIs are excluded from participating in the auctions
(Government of Greece, 2019).
Table 1-6 and Table 1-7 summarize the approach taken by countries to reach their 2030 targets.
Only France’s offshore wind roadmap is known in detail according to NECPs. Other member states
have no clear strategy defined and are therefore excluded from the overview. Regarding onshore
technologies, some countries choose a support scheme based on competitive auctions and others
choose a feed-in tariff scheme.
51
(French Ministry for the Energy Transition, 2019)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Krk is frontrunner
PRISMI project involves six Croatian islands: Korčula and Vis, among others
Cyprus Capacity-based subsidy for PV systems N/A
Net metering scheme for PV systems up to 10 kW
connected to the grid for all consumers (residential and
nonresidential)
Self-consumption systems with compensation on energy
surplus for capacities ranging 10 kW-10 MW for
commercial and industrial consumers
France Island-specific support with solar-plus-storage auctions Onshore wind tenders as in the
mainland: tenders for projects of
wind turbines or more
Greece Technology-specific auctions for islands connected to mainland with feed-in premium
Feed-in tariffs for projects on NIIs
Competitive tender with investment subsidy (financing 60% of CAPEX for the realization of 2-3
innovative and integrated projects)
Technology-neutral auctions for projects > 1MW in larger islands, competing with projects on the
mainland, with a Contract for Difference scheme
3 auctions in 2020
3 auctions in 2021
Malta Feed-in tariff for solar PV projects
Portugal N/A
Slovenia N/A
(Source: Guidehouse)
For Malta and the NIIs in Greece, a feed-in tariff scheme is in place to support the development of
solar PV projects in Malta and onshore wind and solar PV projects in Greece. For its part, Cyprus
has a net metering arrangement in place mainly for solar PV operating under the scheme Solar
Energy for All, launched by the Ministry of Energy in 2016. The scheme provides capacity-based
grants for the installation of PV systems in combination with a net metering billing scheme.
Prosumers will be liable to pay for the net electricity used (energy consumed minus energy
produced onsite). This scheme is aimed at small-scale residential and non-residential prosumers
with a capacity of up to 10 kW (In-Cyprus, 2019). Commercial and industrial consumers with
capacities ranging from 10 kW up to 10 MW are eligible to opt into the net billing scheme. Under
this scheme, the prosumer can sell any excess energy produced to the grid at cost, further
reducing the initial solar investment cost. Islands in Croatia, however, do not have any island-
specific support scheme in place. Renewable projects taking place mainly in Krk, Vis, and Korčula
are results of pilot programmes. An example is the PRISMI project of the Interreg MED Programme
that was financed by the European Regional Development Fund until 2018 (Navigant & E3
Modelling, 2017). As reported by Slovenia’s permanent representation to the European Union, no
offshore or onshore potential is available in Slovenia since it has no islands.
52
(Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017)
53
(Martín, 2020)
54
(Bellini, Spain’s Balearic Islands assign 362 MW of solar in auction, 2019)
55
(Dodd, 2019)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
In France, ADEME launched a call for tenders in 2017 for which winners have been designated;
three out of four pilot projects between 24 MW and 30 MW each were assigned in the
Mediterranean and are expected to be commissioned by 2021 (French Ministry for the Energy
Transition, 2019)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Wave and tidal renewable energy technologies are still relatively immature in terms of the
technology development and the available potential in the Mediterranean (see Section 1.4).
However, Italy has been experimenting with these technologies, and some growth potential exists,
given that the technology develops further, and costs decrease substantially.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Project details
This project explores the potential of tidal energy in the Mediterranean Sea and shows lessons applicable
to similar projects in the future.
More information: http://www.seapowerscrl.com/ocean-and-river-system/gem#slide_6
Table 1-8 gives an overview of offshore projects in the pipeline, which are mostly in the planned
and permitting development stages. For many of these projects, the delivery date is still unknown.
Most offshore wind pipeline activity concerns France, Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Italy also has
existing and planned wave prototype projects.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
2022 Tender France Gulf of Lion Tender Zone Floating Unknown 250.0
zone I
2022 Tender France Gulf of Lion Tender Zone Floating Unknown 250.0
zone II
56
(WindEurope, 2019a)
57
(Hogan Lovells, 2020)
58
(French Ministry for the Energy Transition, 2019)
59
(4C Offshore, 2020)
60
(Ocean Energy Systems, 2020)
61
(Coiro, Troise, & Bizzarini, 2018)
62
(SINN Power Projects, 2020)
63
(Greek Regulatory Authority (RAE), 2020)
64
Existing wave prototype projects are undergoing further research and development, hence their status is still
under “development”
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Thrakiki Aioliki Greece Sea Area South With permits Bottom- Unknown 216
1 SA of Alexandrou- fixed
polis
(Source: Guidehouse)
Table 1-9: Selection of planned and ongoing onshore wind and solar PV projects
on Mediterranean islands65,66,67,68,69,70,71,72
Project Country Region Status Technology Commercial Total
Operation Capacity
Date (MW)
Green Island Greece Agios Under study Wind, solar Unknown 0.9 (Wind)
Efstratios PV, and
storage 0.2 (PV)
65
(Balkan Green Energy News, 2019)
66
(Todovoric, 2019)
67
(Rollet, 2019)
68
(Stavropopoulou, 2019)
69
(Dodd, 2019)
70
(Rogulj, 2020)
71
(Reve, 2020)
72
(DEM - Energy, 2017)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Smart Island Greece Astypalea Under study Wind, solar Unknown Unknown
Pilot 2 PV, and
storage
Smart Island Greece Megisti / Under study Wind, solar Unknown Unknown
Pilot 3 PV, storage
Kastelori-zo
TILOS project Greece Tilos Operation Wind, solar Unknown 0.8 (Wind)
PV, and
storage 0.2 (PV)
(Source: Guidehouse)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Commercial
TILOS Greece Energy island Operational
project
Project details
Figure 1-5. the Tilos project Source:
https://www.tiloshorizon.eu/
The project is an EU Horizon 2020 (Grant Agreement
No 646529) demonstration and research project with 13 project partners from seven European states.
Project TILOS develops solutions for reaching the goal of the European Agenda 2020 (Local / small-scale
storage-LCE-08-2014). The total cost of the project is around 15M€ for a European grant of 11
M€. TILOS started in February 2015 and ran for 4 years.
TILOS is coordinated by the Technological Educational Institute of Piraeus (TEIP) from Athens in Greece.
The island has a total of 500 inhabitants. In the summer, the population on the island grows to 3,000
people as a result of tourism.
On Tilos an 800-kW wind turbine was installed together with a 160 kW PV park, a new type of NaNiCl2
FIAMM battery (2.4MWh/800kW), an energy management system and smart meters.
Project findings
Besides the Danish island Samsø, Tilos is the first island that is fully running on locally generated
renewable electricity.
As a frontrunner, this project can be an example for the development of fully renewable electricity
systems for other islands in the Mediterranean Sea.
More information and source picture: https://www.tiloshorizon.eu/
Economic Projected investment CAPEX and OPEX levels in 2030 and 2050
and operational cost
levels
Environmental
impact
Social
acceptance
Support schemes for Policy support in the form of RES auctions, financial incentives
RES technology (premium tariffs), or other initiatives (pilot programmes)
Permitting procedures Extent to which the current regulatory frameworks allow for
Regulatory for RES technologies, development of projects and whether caps on deployment
regulatory quantity exist
limits
(Source: Guidehouse)
A metric or key performance indicator (KPI) is defined to measure each assessment criterion. Each
RES technology is scored for each criterion based on the KPIs laid out in Table 1-10.
Indicates that the RES technology has a poor performance with respect to the criterion
Indicates that the RES technology has a moderate performance with respect to the criterion
Indicates that the RES technology has a good performance with respect to the criterion
(Source: Guidehouse)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 1-12 gives an overview of the outcome of the qualitative technology assessment. Sections
1.2.1 through 1.2.5 show a qualitative analysis conducted per assessment criterion to explain the
KPI scoring presented in Table 1-12.
Technical
Renewable energy
resource
Scalability
v
Grid interconnectivity in
the region
Economic
Projected investment
and operational cost
levels
Demand matching
production profile
Environmental impact
Impact on environment
Social acceptance
Social acceptance
Regulatory
Permitting procedures
for RES technologies,
regulatory quantity limits
(Source: Guidehouse)
the northern Adriatic Sea where bottom-fixed technology would be feasible (Soukissian et al.,
2017).
From a scalability perspective, floating offshore wind has the highest potential to scale up offshore
technologies. However, the current no existing offshore wind industry’s supply chain in the
Mediterranean region hinders its scoring compared to onshore wind and solar PV technologies,
which are already established.
Wave and tidal energy resources are rather low in the Mediterranean Sea compared to other areas
where the ocean energy sector is growing, such as in the UK. Tidal turbines require a minimum
current speed, and experts have been considering only a few sites such as Gibraltar and the Strait
of Messina. The lack of tides that meet these minimum requirements could limit the feasibility and
scalability of wave and tidal technologies in the Mediterranean region. All offshore technologies
could face scalability constraints in specific sites, such as nearshore coastal areas, due to
competing economic activity, including tourism, fishing, maritime, and shipping activities that take
place in the Mediterranean Sea (Government of Malta, 2019) as it is one of the busiest seas in the
world.
The lack of a sufficiently developed power grid in the region is another aspect that could slow down
the deployment of large-scale offshore technologies such as offshore wind. This situation would
impact wave and tidal technologies to a lesser extent since project capacities are generally lower.
The existing power grid around the islands would not be capable of integrating very large amounts
of variable renewable energy (Soukissian et al., 2017). To a lesser extent, increased penetration of
onshore wind, utility solar, and rooftop solar PV on islands may require upgrading the existing low
voltage and medium voltage distribution networks on islands. For onshore wind projects, grid
interconnectivity may become an important issue since wind sites tend to be located further away
from the grid.
Solar irradiation is possibly the most homogenous resource across the region. Mediterranean
islands have a relatively high wind resource potential (explored in Section 1.4) that is currently
largely untapped.23 However, large-scale solar PV and onshore wind encounter significant barriers
to their development. Mediterranean islands are highly populated (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017),
thereby limiting scalability due to land use restrictions. Rooftop solar PV, however, has a better
technical outlook as it can be deployed easily on small, medium, and large domestic and industrial
roofs.
In terms of potential production per installed capacity, all wind technologies benefit from reaching
the highest capacity of the technologies considered. The capacity factor for onshore and offshore
wind is approximately 40% based on the analysis in Section 1.4.1. Utility-scale and rooftop solar
PV have an estimated capacity factor per solar module of 19% in 2030 and 23% in 2050. The
capacity factor for wave energy is 14% while tidal energy reaches 6% in Italy and 10% in Spain.
The production profile of each technology is evaluated by the extent to which power is produced
during periods of high demand. Despite competition from mainland onshore solar energy,
relatively high value of Mediterranean offshore energy is expected in the summer season due to
tourism and during daytime hours due to demand for air-conditioning. Solar PV technologies
therefore have a natural fit with periods of relatively high demand in the Mediterranean area
according to country-specific load patterns (ENTSO-E, 2019b). Other technologies such as
offshore and onshore wind, wave, and tidal have production patterns that do not necessarily
coincide with high demand periods as they also see high production occurring at night. Although
wind and wave power complement solar power on a seasonal level since they typically produce
most power during the winter months, they do not necessarily produce at the hour when the
demand or value of power is highest. For a more detailed and quantitative assessment, production
profiles of all technologies will be used in the power market modelling analysis in Tasks 2 and 3.
Environmental impact assessments for offshore wind, wave, and tidal projects could face issues in
some locations, thereby limiting their potential deployment area. In Malta, for example, an
environmental impact assessment for the development of the Sikka l-Bajda wind farm determined
negative impacts on marine geology and marine life in the area (Government of Malta, 2019).
Consequently, the development of the wind farm was abandoned.
Large-scale onshore wind and solar PV plants could also negatively affect flora and fauna onshore
by influencing migrating birds (Zwart, Mckenzie, Minderman, & Withingham, 2016). For example,
in France, bird migration towards Africa through the Gulf of Lion is an essential environmental
constraint that must be taken into account when identifying the right zones for floating offshore
wind farms. Also, islands are rest areas for migrating birds. However, this impact can be mitigated
with proper monitoring prior to the investment. Rooftop solar PV systems generally do not
interfere with nature since many of these systems are located in urban or industrial areas.
The introduction of Multiuse Platforms at Sea (MUPs) could help overcome strong opposition from
local stakeholders. For example, in 2018, Sicily’s regional government decided to revoke licenses
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
that had been granted to new solar PV and onshore wind projects. The regional government’s aim
was to assess the impact on the landscape and develop new regional spatial planning.23 Projects
like MERMAID (Stuiver, et al., 2016) focus on the technical perspective to assess the feasibility of
combining different activities at sea and the visionary perspective to facilitate social acceptance
that will ensure the required support for future sustainable activities in European seas. Another
MUP project worth mentioning is the TROPOS project (European Commission, 2015). Its objective
was the development of a floating modular multiuse platform system for use in deep waters. The
TROPOS approach focuses on the modular development in a way that ensures that the multiuse
platform system can integrate a range of functions from the transport, energy, aquaculture, and
leisure sectors in a greater number of geographical areas than if it was a set platform design.
In terms of permitting procedures, countries such as Portugal have adapted the consenting
procedures to better suit wave energy developments. The deployment duration and the capacity
installed drive the need to issue either a license or a concession. A license is required for wave
energy devices that are deployed for less than 1 year and have an installed capacity below or
equal to 25 MW. For lengthier deployment periods and installed capacities higher than 25 MW, a
concession is mandatory (Simas, 2015). France has introduced a new set of rules gathered in
three different codes: the Energy Code, the Environment Code, and the Code of Public Property.
These new laws contribute to a clear governance of the steps in the process of offshore
developments and a simplification of permitting procedures (Hogan Lovells, 2020). In Spain, Royal
Decree 1028/2007 established two authorization processes for the development of offshore energy
generation plants: a simplified version for capacities lower than 50 MW and a regular process for
capacities above 50 MW. Currently, Spain’s marine spatial planning framework is under review,
and the authorization process may also undergo changes in the short term (The Institute for
Diversification and Energy Saving, 2020). From experience in the North Sea, marine spatial
planning highly influences the consenting process for proposed ocean energy and offshore wind
projects (Simas, 2015). Overall, this is currently lacking in Mediterranean member state countries.
In addition, limited, burdensome legal frameworks or lack thereof for offshore energy projects
creates further uncertainty among developers (WindPlus, 2017).
This task narrows down the Mediterranean Sea to suitable boundaries for applicable renewable
energy technologies. A spatial constraint analysis is employed to determine locations available for
power generation. Following identification of those locations, the technical energy potential is
determined by using a raw resource map for each technology under investigation. Economic
potential determination will follow by using technology cost figures.
The EEZ areas are the first exclusion criterion within the Mediterranean Sea for the geographical
and resource analysis. Note that some EEZs, though located within the European Mediterranean
Sea, belong to countries that are not members of the EU. These zones are also excluded from the
analysis.
Figure 1-6 shows the EEZs of EU countries in the Mediterranean Sea. The next section presents
the exclusion factors applied in the analysis.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Natura 2000 is a European network of protected areas, offering a haven to Europe’s most valuable
and threatened species and habitats. It covers 8% of the European marine territory, including the
Mediterranean Sea. The objective of these Natura 2000 sites is to ensure long-term survival of
Europe’s most valuable and threatened species and habitats (European Commission, 2020c).
Therefore, these protected sites are generally assumed to be not viable for the development of
offshore energy systems, so all Natura 2000 sites are classified as exclusion zones for this study.
Rocky reefs offer shelter to diverse marine wildlife species as well as corals (Sala et al., 2011) and
are therefore also classified as exclusion zones. The CoCoNet study is published by the European
Maritime Spatial Planning Platform and identifies groups of MPAs in the Mediterranean and Black
Seas. Figure 1-7 presents the exclusion of Natura 2000 sites and rocky reef areas.
Figure 1-7: Exclusion of Natura 2000 sites74 and rocky reef areas75
(Source: (European Environment Agency, n.d.), (National Center for Ecological Analysis and
Synthesis (NCEAS), 2008) National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS),
retrieved from https://knb.ecoinformatics.org/view/doi:10.5063/F1JW8C4R)
Total exclusion of Natura2000 sites would result in dismissal of high development areas in terms of
resource potential and economic potential for floating wind turbines. The most important affected
area is in the Gulf of Lion, which has a high resource potential with one of the highest wind speeds
in the Mediterranean as shown in Figure 1-15. The location of the proposed production areas in the
Gulf of Lion are shown Section 1.6 in Figure 1-38 and are within the area labelled 01.
73
The EEZ areas are defined as the geographical regions allotted to the different countries for resource
potential calculation.
74
(European Environment Agency, n.d.)
75
(National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), 2008)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 1-8 shows the impact of the Natura 2000 sites on the selected production areas. As this
specific Natura 2000 area in the Gulf of Lion is designated for sea bottom conservation, the effect
of floating wind turbines should be relatively insignificant as turbines are only anchored in the sea
bottom (compared with the immersive foundations of bottom-fixed wind turbines). Another reason
for the expected low impact is the assumed offshore wind resource density of 7 MW/km 2 (see
Section 1.4.1). Combined with increasing wind turbine sizes (already up to 7 MW), spatial impact
is expected to be mitigated easily. Furthermore, some projects are already developed in this area
in the Gulf of Lion, so this area is assumed to be available for development of floating technologies
with careful regard for restrictions.76
Figure 1-8: TMAs and production areas proposed in Section 1.6 overlap with
Natura 2000 areas in the Gulf of Lion
(Source: Guidehouse)
This report also considered protection areas identified in the CoCoNet study. Published by the
European Maritime Spatial Planning Platform, this study identifies groups of MPAs in the
Mediterranean and Black Seas (Grande & Foglini, 2016). This report investigated the extent to
which these MPAs will cause additional spatial exclusions other than those already identified in
other protection datasets. The most notable area identified is the Pelagos Sanctuary for
Mediterranean Marine Mammals. The Pelagos Sanctuary is the blue hatched area north of Corsica
shown in Figure 1-9. While this area is large and overlaps with one of the selected technology mix
and production areas, activity in the sanctuary is not restricted. The sanctuary seeks to ensure
that human activities are compatible with the presence of native species (Pelagos, 2012).
Therefore, the area is assumed to be available for development with careful regard for restrictions.
76
The area is too deep for bottom-fixed technologies.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Bird migration routes in the Mediterranean Sea area are concentrated on the shortest stretches of
sea between Europe and Africa. These stretches are the Strait of Gibraltar and the crossing
between western Sicily and Tunisia. In the Strait of Gibraltar, migration routes should have little
impact because project development is not expected to occur there due to exclusion by high
intensity shipping lanes. However, a proposed development area remains between Sicily and
Tunisia that can potentially effect bird migration. This area southwest of Sicily is the area labelled
03 in Figure 1-38, and it overlaps with bird migration routes between Europe and Africa.
Several measures can mitigate the effects of offshore development on birds, including shutdown,
attraction avoidance, luring, and deterrence. This study considers shutdown. To reduce the bird
mortality rate, avian radars are available on a commercial level to detect migrating flocks and shut
down a wind farm’s production for brief periods of time. One manufacturer reports that these
shutdown periods are few (less than 4 hours during springtime) and have a very limited effect on
the availability of a wind farm (STRIX, 2017). Studies have shown that wind farm shutdowns can
lead to a 50% reduction in the bird mortality rate with only a 0.07% loss in energy production
(Lucas, 2012). The effects on bird migration can be mitigated, and this study includes the area
between Sicily and Tunisia with only a negligible decrease in resource potential.
Artisanal fishing
High intensity shipping lanes
Munition dump areas
Production platforms for oil & gas
Commercial and artisanal fishing are very important activities in the Mediterranean Sea. Artisanal
fishing refers to fishing practices undertaken by small-scale, low technology, individual fishing
households as opposed to commercial companies. These activities mostly take place close to shore
and have limited flexibility with displacement. Therefore, high intensity artisanal fishing areas have
been excluded from the available areas for offshore energy production.
Maritime transport is a traditionally strong economic sector in the Mediterranean Sea. The
Mediterranean Sea is among the world’s busiest waterways, accounting for 15% of global shipping
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
activity by number of calls.77 Therefore, high intensity shipping lanes are excluded from the
available area for offshore energy production. High traffic shipping lanes will most likely not be
identified as a potential offshore wind zone. A low traffic shipping lane might be willing to
accommodate a wind park.
Military activity in the Mediterranean Sea can form another obstacle for the development of
offshore energy development, but information on the location of military activities is very difficult
to come by. However, concerns do exist regarding dumped munitions. This is especially relevant in
the Adriatic-Ionian Sea (European Commission, 2019). The known munition dump areas are
excluded from the analysis in this study. While probably not all dump areas would exclude
renewable energy generation, their exclusion acts as a proxy for the unavailable military activity
area.
A standard 500-meter safety zone exists around offshore production platforms for oil & gas. This
zone requires that vessels keep a minimum distance of 500 m from a production platform.
Therefore, an exclusion zone with a 500-meter radius is defined around each production platform
in the European Mediterranean Sea in this study. Only existing oil & gas facilities are considered.
Figure 1-10 shows the available area after exclusion of artisanal fishing areas, high intensity
shipping lanes, military munition dump sites, and offshore production platforms.
Installation, operation, and maintenance costs are proportional to the distance to shore. From
200 km onwards, it is generally not economically viable to build and maintain offshore wind farms
and wave energy installations. Offshore hubs might allow for larger distances, but this option is not
considered here. Also, deep water hubs are difficult to develop. It turns out that 200 km is not a
77
Unique identifier of a ship or boat
78
(National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), 2008)
79
(EMODNET, 2020)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
limiting factor anywhere because of the large depth and steep slope of the Mediterranean seafloor.
There were no other technical or legal reasons for the 200 km limit.
In addition to the distance to shore, depth is another determining factor (National Centers for
Environmental Information, n.d.).80 Bottom-fixed wind turbines are generally built in locations with
a maximum depth of 50 m (International Energy Agency, 2019). A 1000-meter maximum limit
exists for floating wind and wave energy installations. Table 1-13 summarises the distance and
depth limitations. The remaining areas available for the development of bottom-fixed wind,
floating wind, and wave energy installations are presented in
Figure 1-11 shows the available area for bottom-fixed wind turbines after applying additional
technology-specific exclusions, depth, and distance to shore. This figure shows the area available
for technology development with all geographic constraints considered.
80
This report uses the global ETOPO1 relief dataset from NOAA
(https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/global.html). This dataset includes bathymetric data. The dataset
is checked and in accordance with the bathymetry from EMODNET (https://portal.emodnet-
bathymetry.eu/).
81
22.2 kilometres corresponds to 12 nautical miles, a customary minimal distance in offshore wind
development in the North and Baltic Seas.
82
Connection to installations at these depths is possible: Today a relevant number of cables running below
1,000 m sea depth. TERNA ENERGY’s cable SAPEI, interconnecting Sardinia with continental Italy, runs at
1,600 m depth.
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Figure 1-12 shows the available area for floating wind after applying additional technology-specific
exclusions, depth, and distance to shore. This figure shows the area available for technology
development with all geographic constraints considered.
Figure 1-12: Available area for floating wind turbines based on geographical
constraints
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-13 shows the available area for wave energy installations after applying additional
technology-specific exclusions, depth, and distance to shore. This figure shows the area available
for technology development with all geographic constraints considered.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 1-13: Available area for wave energy installations based on geographical
constraints
(Source: Guidehouse)
For wind energy technology, wind speed data in m/s at 10 m above sea level is available (National
Centers for Environmental Information Climatic Data, n.d.). From the available climatological
average wind speed data time series, quarterly and annual average wind speeds at hub height are
calculated at a 1/60-degree raster map. The climatological annual average wind speed data is
shown in Figure 1-15.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Wave energy resource data is available in kW/m. Annual average wave resource data is available
at individual buoy locations from two publications (Arena F. et al., 2015; Pontes M.T et al., 1998).
Using spatial interpolation techniques, an approximate wave resource map was created from the
point buoy data. The level of available wave resources is presented in Figure 1-16.
In addition, locations are excluded where the resource value is below a certain critical value. This
cut-off can be thought of as reflecting the economic competition for wind power or wave energy
with other generation technologies and economic investments. Resource levels below the critical
value for a technology are assumed to be too low to make an economically feasible investment
possible for that technology.
In the case of wind energy, a location is excluded if wind speeds at hub height is below the global
critical value. Wave energy is excluded from locations having a resource level below a critical
average annual level.
Table 1-14 shows the critical resource levels for each offshore technology. The limit used for
offshore wind was established by Guidehouse’s in-house resource model. This limit has also been
confirmed in practice. No commercial-scale wind farms are developed in established markets that
have an average wind speed at hub height below 8 m/s. The critical value for wave technology is
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
based on observation, as no projects have been developed with an average wave resource level
below 5 kW/m.
For each of the three technologies, this report also excludes areas where the resource level is
below the critical level. This results in an available area after critical resource exclusion. Figure
1-17, Figure 1-18, and Figure 1-19 show the area available to bottom-fixed wind, floating wind,
and wave technology after geographical constraints and the additional exclusion below critical
resource level.
Figure 1-17: Area available for bottom-fixed wind turbines after resource-
specific exclusion
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-18: Area available for floating wind turbines after resource-specific
exclusion
(Source: Guidehouse)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 1-19: Area available for wave energy after resource-specific exclusion
(Source: Guidehouse)
As this study also considers onshore wind energy from islands in the Mediterranean Sea, a similar
approach was conducted for onshore wind turbines. In recent years, the average hub height of
onshore wind turbines in Germany increased from 93 m in 2008 to 133 m in 2018 (Fraunhofer,
n.d.). Based on the expectation that this trend will continue, a hub height of 150 m is expected for
2030. However, in contrast to the increased growth expected in the development of offshore
turbines, onshore turbines experience more constraints, given social acceptance, environmental
concerns, and other height restrictions. For this reason, an average hub height of 150 m is
expected for 2050 as well.
The resource potential is determined for 2030 and 2050 for the available area shown in Figure
1-21, Figure 1-22, and Figure 1-23. The area is represented as a geographic raster with cells of
1x1 km. The calculations are carried out per raster cell and summarized per country or production
block (for production block definition, see Section 1.6).
The wind speed is input to a standard Full Load Hour-wind speed relationship (Held, 2010):
This study assumes a wind farm installed power density of 7 MW/km2. Figure 1-20 from the
European Maritime Spatial Planning Platform (European MSP Platform, 2018a) gives the offshore
wind farm capacity densities of current projects. A clear trend is not visible, but 7 MW/km2 is very
much in the middle of the range.
From the full-load hours (FLH),83 the assumed offshore wind power density of 7 MW/km2, and the
raster cell area (1 km2 in our case), the offshore wind resource potential is calculated in
MWh/year. This calculation also applies an operational efficiency of 90% and an array efficiency of
90%. The operational efficiency gives the share of time that the wind turbine is not offline for
maintenance. The array efficiency measures the loss that multiple turbines will cause because of
mutual interference. The efficiencies are combined by multiplication, resulting in an overall
efficiency of 81%.
The efficiency values are treated the same as Guidehouse’s in-house model for resource potential
calculation. The values are on the low side to remain conservative when determining maximal
technical resource potential. These values are also justified because offshore wind technologies are
relatively new in the Mediterranean.
1.4.1.2 Wave
For wave resource potential determination, this study uses a method comparable to the method
for offshore wind. For wave energy technology, the best estimate of the capacity factor is from the
Ocean Energy Systems/International Energy Agency LCOE report (OES & IEA, 2015). This
relationship can be approximated with the following mathematical relationship:
Here phi is wave resource in kW/m at the raster cell location. The wave FLH are determined by
multiplying the capacity factor with 8,760 hours. The wave resource potential in MWh/year is then
83
FLH equal the number of hours resulting from dividing the energy output of the turbine over the year by its
rated power. In practice, a wind turbine will run for a longer time (load hours) than given by the FLH, as it
will often run at less than 100% rated capacity.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
calculated from the full load hours, the assumed wave power density (12.5 MW/km2),84 the raster
cell area (1 km2), and a wave operational efficiency of 95% (OES & IEA, 2015).
This study could not find any indication of how wave energy technology will develop after 2030.
Therefore, the technical parameters are assumed to be the same in 2030 and 2050. However, as
explained by Figure 1-19, this study does assume further cost reductions for wave energy between
2030 and 2050, even if it is unknown which technological developments this will come from.
1.4.1.3 Tidal
In the Mediterranean, significant tidal resources are only available in two specific locations: the
straits of Messina and Gibraltar. This study found a resource potential of 125 GWh/year for the
Strait of Messina (Coiro et al., 2013). In the Strait of Gibraltar, this study found a tidal potential
capacity of 25 GW (Physical oceanography group, University of Malaga). With an expected capacity
factor of 10%, this study obtained a tidal resource potential of 22 TWh/year in that area. 85
1.4.1.4 Results
For all offshore technologies, the resulting available area within the EEZs of different countries
after resource specific exclusions is in shown in Table 1-15. This study does not provide an area
value for tidal technology, as it is available at only two specific locations.
Table 1-15: Available area in km2 for offshore technologies after resource-
specific exclusions
EEZ ID Country Bottom-fixed Bottom-fixed Floating Floating Wave
wind wind wind wind available area
available available available available 2030 and
area 2030 area 2050 area 2030 area 2050 2050(km2)
(km2) (km2) (km2) (km2)
8 Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0
(Source: Guidehouse)
The values given in Table 1-15 represent the technical potential available if all suitable areas would
be used to install RES technologies. In practice, legal, societal, economic, and other barriers will
limit the amount of potential area that can be used.
84
SWECO internal communication.
85
SWECO internal communication.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
For both offshore wind technologies, the resource potential in 2050 is higher than the potential in
2030. This fact is a consequence of the increased wind turbine hub height by 2050. Turbine hub
height influences the resource potential in two different ways. Firstly, the increased hub height
results in a higher average wind speed at hub height and an increased local resource potential.
Secondly, the area available to offshore wind increases with an increased hub height. The higher
hub height means a higher wind speed at hub height. This fact results in more locations meeting
the minimum resource limit of 8 m/s windspeed at hub height. Therefore, more area is available,
and the total resource potential is higher.
(Source: Guidehouse)
The increase in resource potential for floating wind is mainly due to the first reason: higher local
resource potential because of higher wind speeds at hub height. A relatively small increase of
about 4% occurs in resource potential for floating wind.
For bottom-fixed wind, the increase in resource potential is much larger and reaches 32%. This
increase is caused by the substantial increase in area available to the bottom-fixed technology
between 2030 and 2050. The bottom-fixed wind potential is mainly concentrated in the Adriatic
Sea. In that location, the most important limiting factor for resource potential is the area available
for generation, and the available area is in turn constrained by the minimum resource limit.
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(Source: Guidehouse)
For floating wind, the important limiting factors are maximum depth and distance to shore.
Therefore, for this technology, the relative increase in available area is very small compared to
bottom-fixed wind.
Table 1-17 shows resource potential installed capacities. The values represent the capacities that
can be maximally installed in areas available to the different technologies for renewable
generation. The following figures show the geographic variation of the resource potential for
bottom-fixed wind turbines, floating wind turbines, and wave energy installations for 2030 and
2050.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 1-21: Resource potential for bottom-fixed wind turbines in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-21 shows the resource potential of bottom-fixed wind. The map indicates the areas
determined before by spatial exclusions. In the available areas, the colour code indicates the level
of the available resources in MWh/km2/year. Darker red colours mean higher resource levels. In
the same way, Figure 1-22 shows the resource potential of floating wind technology.
Figure 1-23 shows the resource potential of wave energy installations. Here, the resource levels
are indicated with blue colour scale, with darker blue corresponding to higher resource levels.
Resource levels are the same for 2030 and 2050.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 1-22: Resource potential for floating wind turbines in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-23: Resource potential for wave energy installations in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
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From the Guidehouse in-house resource potential model (Deng, et al., 2015), country-level values
are known that express the percentage of the country’s area available for RES generation for each
technology. This study assumes that on islands alone, these percentages are the same as for the
whole country. Onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV use a percentage of available surface area.
For rooftop solar PV, the available rooftop area is translated into available area per capita by using
average values of rooftop area per capita. The values used are shown in Table 1-18.
Using this study’s geographical map, the coordinates of the location and area in square kilometres
of all islands on the map within the EEZs of each country under study were determined. Figure
1-39 shows the islands involved. This study also uses a population density map (SEDAC, 2015)
and combines it with the island areas to arrive at an estimate of the number of inhabitants of each
island.
For onshore wind, the same method was used as the method for offshore wind, described in
Section 1.4.1. The average wind speed was sampled at the island location and calculated at hub
height. The hub height is taken to be 150 m in all cases. The same formula for FLH and value of
power density as for offshore wind are used to get the potential per square kilometre. Then, the
island area and the percentage of area available from Table 1-18 gave the resource potential per
island. For onshore wind, an operational efficiency of 98% and an array efficiency of 90% are
assumed. The resource potential per country is determined by summing up the values from all
islands within each country.
For solar photovoltaics, the study first determined the area available. For utility-scale solar PV, the
available area was determined by multiplying the island area with the percentage of area available
taken from Table 1-18. For rooftop solar PV, the available area was determined by multiplying the
rooftop area per capita from Table 1-18 with the number of inhabitants.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
The conversion factors are multiplied together to get the overall solar conversion factor. Solar
irradiation in kWh/m2/day sampled at the location of each island is then translated into solar
resource potential in MWh/year by using this overall conversion factor and the previously
determined available area. The resource potential per country is determined by summing up the
values from all islands within each country.
The results of the resource calculations are shown in Table 1-20. Average resource values summed
per country are given in TWh/year. For onshore wind, the resource potential is the same in 2030
and 2050 as this study assumes that the onshore wind turbine hub height will be the same in both
years, as explained in Section 1.4.1. Table 1-21 presents the capacities of the different onshore
technologies that can be maximally installed on islands.
(Source: Guidehouse)
86
The term performance ratio, also called the quality factor (Q), refers to the relationship between actual yield
and target yield. It indicates which portion of the generated current can actually be used.
87
The ground coverage is derived from typical power densities of solar farms (25-50 MW/km2) in comparison
with the raw module power density of a typical solar cell of 125-150MW/km2.
88
For Portugal, the islands are located in the Atlantic Ocean and not in the Mediterranean Sea.
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(Source: Guidehouse)
Capacity factor: represents the share of the time in a year that a power plant generates
power
i: represents the discount rate that depends on the technology’s cost of capital (cost of
debt and cost of equity) and the financial risk. The LCOE cost calculation uses different
weighted average cost of capital (WACC) rates per technology.
Lifetime: years of the technology’s power plant
Grid connection costs, taxes, land costs, and decommissioning costs are excluded from the LCOE
cost calculation. Although grid connection costs may be significant in certain regions with limited
grid connectivity and this situation may vary between countries, these costs are not specific to the
cost development of each technology. Onshore and offshore transmission asset connection costs
(i.e., offshore substation and export cable) are not considered in this economic potential
assessment, which focuses on production technologies and production blocks. Only connection
costs between the different individual pieces of equipment within an offshore energy plant (e.g.,
the array cables that connect the turbines in an offshore wind farm to an offshore substation) are
included in these CAPEX and fixed OPEX estimates. The grid connection is subject to further
optimisation in Task 3.
In centralised grid delivery models, these costs are often borne by Transmission System Operators
and not by project developers (Navigant, 2019) Taxes are specific to each country and not intrinsic
to the cost development of each technology. Similarly, although land costs may have a particular
importance in certain densely populated regions or countries such as Malta, these may be very
specific to each country and have not been included as part of the CAPEX or OPEX input
assumptions of each onshore technology. Finally, decommissioning costs are very uncertain at this
point and do not have a large impact on the overall LCOE. Decommissioning costs are estimated to
represent a small share of the total undiscounted project costs between 2-3%. (Topham E. and
McMillan, 2017). In addition, the impact of decommissioning costs on the LCOE is estimated
around 1% (Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 2018). Table 1-22 gives an
overview of the approach taken per technology on the cost inputs and calculation method.
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Bottom-fixed CAPEX for 2030 and 2050 on a local level LCOE varies on a local level due to
offshore wind based on local water depth differences in costs (based on distance
to shore and water depth) and wind
OPEX for 2030 and 2050 on a local level yield (Task 1.4)
based on distance to shore
Floating Fixed CAPEX for 2030 and 2050. LCOE varies due to local differences in
offshore wind wind energy yield and OPEX (Task 1.4)
Less dependency on water depth
Higher cost uncertainty than for bottom-
fixed offshore wind, which is a more
mature technology
Average OPEX for 2030 and 2050 based on
local distance to shore
Solar PV Fixed CAPEX and OPEX for 2030 and 2050, LCOE varies due to differences in solar
irrespective of location as solar PV modules energy yield (Task 1.4)
are a European market:
Utility solar PV
Rooftop solar
Onshore wind Fixed CAPEX and OPEX for 2030 and 2050, LCOE varies due to differences in wind
irrespective of location as onshore wind energy yield (Task 1.4)
turbines are a European market
Wave energy Fixed CAPEX and OPEX for 2030 and 2050 LCOE varies due to differences in wave
energy yield (Task 1.4)
Tidal energy Fixed CAPEX and OPEX for 2030 and 2050 LCOE varies due to differences in tidal
energy yield (Task 1.4)
(Source: Guidehouse)
Importantly, CAPEX levels for bottom-fixed offshore wind depend on water depth. Guidehouse’s
offshore wind cost model is used as a basis to differentiate CAPEX costs for sites with differing
water depths. However, in this economic assessment, floating offshore wind CAPEX is assumed to
be independent from water depths. In the light of the aim of the study and of Task 1, the cost
analysis is used to identify the 10 most promising TMAs for further analysis in Tasks 2 and 3. The
error introduced through this cost simplification should not affect the outcome of the selected sites
strongly since there is a maximum water depth deemed feasible for floating offshore wind.
In terms of fixed OPEX cost levels, cost differentiation based on the project’s distance to shore
becomes relevant. Typically, both bottom-fixed and floating offshore wind projects include the use
of Service Operation Vessels in their operation and maintenance strategies for wind farms located
at distances to shore greater than 75 km. Therefore, this significant operational cost is included as
an OPEX element in the LCOE calculation only for sites at a distance to shore greater than 75 km
(The Crown Estate, 2013). Figure 1-24 and Figure 1-25 show the specific CAPEX and OPEX input
values used for 2030 and 2050 to calculate LCOE levels per technology.
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Figure 1-24: CAPEX and OPEX for 2030 and 2050 for offshore technologies
Figure 1-25: CAPEX and OPEX for 2030 and 2050 for onshore technologies
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-24 and Figure 1-25 suggest that utility solar PV followed by rooftop solar PV and onshore
wind are the technologies with the lowest projected investment costs towards 2030 and 2050.
Investment costs for floating offshore wind are anticipated to remain higher than those of bottom-
fixed offshore wind. However, towards 2050, investment costs for floating offshore wind are
expected to reach similar cost levels as bottom-fixed offshore technology.
Wave and tidal energy technologies should remain the most expensive technologies. In 2030,
investment costs for wave and tidal are expected to remain approximately 5.5 times and 4 times
as high as the investment costs for onshore wind, respectively. Towards 2050, a significant decline
in investment costs is expected for wave energy technology. A detailed list of the investment and
operational input cost figures used for 2030 and 2050 and its sources is included in Figure 1-26
Multiple sources have been considered for each cost input assumption, and the cost inputs chosen
are in line with other well-known studies from the International Energy Agency, the International
Renewable Energy Agency, and ASSETS.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 1-23: WACC and lifetime per generation technology for LCOE cost analysis
Offshore energy Onshore energy on islands
(Source: Guidehouse)
The WACC is heavily dependent on each technology’s cost of debt financing, cost of equity
financing, and the financial risk of the markets considering these technologies. Values for the
technologies’ lifetime are taken from current standard industry practices. Table 1-23 shows an
overview of the estimated WACC assumed for the Mediterranean region and the lifetime used per
technology.
Figure 1-26: Average LCOE levels for offshore technologies per country for 2030
and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-26 shows the average LCOE results calculated based on the input parameters in Figure
1-24, Figure 1-25, and Table 1-23. Input assumptions are further detailed in Section 1.5. Average
LCOE results show that bottom-fixed offshore wind is most cost competitive in Portuguese and
89
(OES & IEA, 2015)
90
(Bachner et al., 2019)
91
(BVG Associates, 2017)
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Spanish waters, with LCOE levels around 46-48 €/MWh in 2030 and 38-40 €/MWh in 2050.
Notably, the bottom-fixed offshore wind potentials in these areas remain low at 1.9 TWh/year and
1.1 TWh/year, respectively according to Table 1-16. Italy’s and Croatia’s potentials are higher at
24-32 TWh/year and 18-23 TWh/year, respectively.
Waters off the coasts of France and Portugal are the preferred locations for floating offshore wind
farms. LCOE levels in those areas range 66-71 €/MWh in 2030 and 41-44 €/MWh in 2050.
However, floating offshore wind potentials are highest in Italy (1610-1663 TWh/year), Greece
(840-858 TWh/year), and Spain (581-594 TWh/year).
For wave energy, Portuguese waters result in the best economic option again, with a significantly
lower LCOE in 2030 and 2050 compared to the rest of the member states, namely 328 €/MWh
(2030) and 149 €/MWh (2050). Portugal has the second highest wave energy potential (888
TWh/year) after Greece (1810 TWh/year).
Among the two selected sites for tidal energy, Spain hosts the site with a significantly lower LCOE
and the highest tidal energy potential compared to Italy. Tidal energy projects in Spain could
deliver a total of 22 TWh/year at an LCOE level of 812 €/MWh in 2030 and 543 €/MWh in 2050.
Finally, LCOE levels are not determined for countries where the resource potential is zero, as
derived in Task 1.4.
Figure 1-27: Average LCOE levels for onshore technologies on islands for 2030
and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
LCOE levels for onshore technologies are generally much lower than those for offshore
technologies (Figure 1-27). The LCOE levels are a result of our input assumptions and do not
include any costs for grid connection. Utility solar PV and rooftop solar PV show attractive
economic potential in all member states except in Slovenia, where the resource potential was set
to zero since there are no islands. LCOE levels for utility solar PV technology range 18-22 €/MWh
in 2030 and 10-12 €/MWh in 2050. For rooftop solar PV, LCOE levels amount to 29-36 €/MWh in
2030 and 18-23 €/MWh in 2050. Onshore wind LCOE levels are higher than those of solar
technologies but still below those of bottom-fixed offshore wind. Similar to solar energy, onshore
wind energy is an available resource on all countries’ islands except in Slovenia, with LCOE levels
ranging between 35-60 €/MWh (2030) and 29-49 €/MWh (2050).
turbines have a high dependency on the water depth. Deeper waters result in increased material
use for the foundations of the wind turbines and increased installation costs. The depth
dependency of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines already led to an exclusion of all waters with a
depth over 50 m, resulting in a very limited available area for deployment.
Figure 1-28 and Figure 1-29 present the geographical variation of the LCOE of bottom-fixed wind
in 2030 and 2050.
Figure 1-30 presents the LCOE of floating wind in 2030, and Figure 1-31 presents the LCOE of
floating wind in 2050.
92
Please note that the available area for fixed bottom wind turbines is relatively small, mostly located in the
Adriatic Sea.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
(Source: Guidehouse)
Floating wind turbines have less spatial constraints as they can be deployed up to a depth of
1,000 m. However, the technology is still in early phases of deployment and not nearly as mature
as bottom-fixed wind turbines.
Figure 1-30 shows that most of the available area has an LCOE of 60 to 100 €/MWh in 2030 (LCOE
values without grid connection costs to shore; see Section 1.5.1). Increased deployment in the
Mediterranean Sea and in other regions of the world is expected to drive down costs and increase
efficiency in the rollout of floating wind turbines. Figure 1-31 shows that spatial availability
increases slightly due to higher hub heights; meanwhile, LCOE decreases significantly for floating
wind turbines in 2050 due to reduced costs and increased efficiency.
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-32 and Figure 1-33 show maps of the LCOE of wave technology in 2030 and 2050. In
these figures, the geographic variation of LCOE levels of floating wave technology are shown.
Estimated spatial availability and wave resource potential is the same in both years investigated.
Low maturity of wave technology and lack of technological progress paths with clear and strong
cost reduction potential cause high LCOE levels. For 2030, an LCOE of up to 900 €/MWh is
expected. In 2050, the LCOE is expected to drop to a range of 100-400 €/MWh as the technology
is likely to develop.
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(Source: Guidehouse)
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-34 shows the cost curves for bottom-fixed wind. Again, the potential for bottom-fixed
wind turbines is limited, but the maturity of the technology results in a low LCOE. Most potential
occurs in Italy and Croatia, which represents the resource potential of the area in the Adriatic Sea.
We see again the total potential in 2050 is higher because the assumption of an increased hub
height in 2050 and cost levels are lower for that year.
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Figure 1-34: Cost curves for bottom-fixed wind in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-35 shows the cost curves for floating wind technology in 2030 and 2050. The less mature
technology shows higher LCOE levels than for bottom-fixed wind. For floating wind in 2050, the
increased hub height results in a higher cumulative potential. In 2050, the technological
advancement results in a lower LCOE for floating wind turbines.
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Figure 1-35: Cost curves for floating wind in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
The cost curves for wave technology in 2030 and 2050 are shown in Figure 1-356. The substantial
wave resource potential of the Atlantic coast of Portugal and (to a lesser extent) of Spain remains
clearly visible. Higher waves in the Atlantic part of this area result in LCOE levels below 400
€/MWh in 2030. In the Mediterranean, less wave energy is available, resulting in clearly higher
LCOE levels of 500–900 €/MWh. Costs are expected to decrease significantly between 2030 and
2050. The LCOE for wave energy in the Portuguese part remains below 200 €/MWh in 2050. All of
these values are still significantly above those for wind energy and OV on islands as well as
offshore wind and tidal.
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Figure 1-36: Cost curves for wave technology in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
This study has also determined the combined cost curves with the following considerations:
For each location in the offshore area under study, the study determined if at least one
technology has a resource potential above zero.
Then, the study determined which technology has the lowest LCOE in those locations.
Each location was then assigned the resource potential of its cheapest technology.
After sorting by LCOE and taking the cumulative sum of the assigned resource potentials,
the combined cost curve was obtained.
The results for 2030 and 2050 are show in Figure 1-37. In these figures, the cost curves are colour
coded with the cheapest technology of the location. The potential for bottom-fixed wind turbines is
very low compared to floating wind turbines. Wave energy has the highest LCOE levels. Wave
energy LCOE drops in 2050 but remains expensive when compared with the other technologies.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 1-37: Combined cost curves for all offshore technologies in 2030 and 2050
(Source: Guidehouse)
The TMAs have a size of roughly 120x120 km but are not always square. The aspect ratio can vary
to best fit regions of high resource potential. Within the TMAs, this study defines several
production blocks. Production blocks have a size of roughly 140 km2, which corresponds to a
typical offshore wind farm size of 1 GW having a power density of 7 MW/ km2. The production
blocks do not necessarily fill the entire TMAs but are defined only at locations with sufficient
resource potential. The locations of the production blocks remain the connection point for the grid
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
options analysis in Task 2. For each production block, this study calculated total resource potential,
maximum installed capacity, and average LCOE for all technologies. When considering resource
costs for LCOE calculations in production blocks, all connection costs within the production blocks
are considered. All other grid connection costs are part of the analysis in Tasks 2 and 3. Figure
1-38 presents the TMAs and defined production blocks.
Table 1-24, Table 1-25, and Table 1-26 present the results summarised over the production blocks
defined in the TMAs. The results represent the total technical potential available if all production
blocks are used completely. Table 1-24 shows the installed capacity if the production blocks are
fully used.
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Table 1-24: Installed capacity potential for each technology in production blocks
defined for TMAs
TMA Description Bottom- Bottom- Floating Floating Wave Wave
label fixed fixed wind wind installed installed
wind wind installed installed capacity capacity
installed installed capacity capacity 2030 2050
capacity capacity 2030 2050 (GW) (GW)
2030 2050 (GW) (GW)
(GW) (GW)
(Source: Guidehouse)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 1-25: Total resource potential in production blocks defined for TMAs
TMA Description Bottom- Bottom- Floating Floating Wave Wave
label fixed wind fixed wind wind wind potential potential
potential potential potential potential 2030 2050
2030 2050 2030 2050 (TWh/a) (TWh/a)
(TWh/a) (TWh/a) (TWh/a) (TWh/a)
(Source: Guidehouse)
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(Source: Guidehouse)
The onshore resource potential on islands will also be considered in Tasks 2 and 3. Figure 1-39
indicates the involved islands. To determine what percentage of islands will be connected to the
power grid under consideration, the distance to the nearest TMA is determined for all islands. This
distance can be used to establish whether a connection to an island is economically feasible.
Figure 1-39: Islands in the Mediterranean Sea with major onshore wind and solar
power capabilities
(Source: Guidehouse)
Table 1-27 shows the potential of onshore technologies on islands close to the TMAs. Nearby
islands are defined as islands whose midpoint is within 100 km of the centre of the closest TMA.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
This distance roughly represents the size of the TMAs. Additionally, some nearby large islands that
have a part of their coast close to a TMA (such as Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily, and Crete) are included.
(Source: Guidehouse)
Table 1-28 shows the proposed ranking of the TMAs. Ranking is primarily based on lowest LCOE of
offshore wind but also considers:
(Source: Guidehouse)
Figure 1-40 shows the TMAs labelled with their ranking number.
For technologies on islands, this study assumes that they have a time series profile equal to that
of the closest TMA.
For wind energy, this study uses the MERRA-2 global dataset93 to obtain a time series of hourly
capacity factor values (one year, 2014). Data from the Merra-2 database is available from
Renewables.ninja.94 For offshore wind, the wind speed data for 150-meter hub height was obtained
at the location of the TMA’s centre. Multiplying wind speed data by the logarithmic wind speed
factor obtained values at 180-meter hub height for the offshore wind 2050 time series. For
onshore wind on islands, wind speed data at 150 m was obtained for an onshore location near the
TMA under consideration.
Also available from Renewables.ninja is wind power production data. The website uses the
properties of a generic wind turbine to determine this power output. From the wind speed data,
the production data is obtained by using the power curve of the wind turbine.
Power output from Renewables.ninja is only available for 150 m hub height. By using the same
power curve as Renewables.ninja, this study calculated the offshore wind power production at a
hub height of 180 m from the wind speed values at 180 m hub height. The power generation time
series are normalised by dividing the wind power output by the nominal capacity of the generic
wind turbine used in determining the power curve.
For time series of solar PV on islands, this study determined the normalised power production for
each of the defined TMAs and calculated the time series for an onshore location close to each of
the TMAs. For a certain island, the PV time series of the TMA closest to the island was used. PV
time series are taken to be the same for large-scale utility PV and rooftop PV.
Solar PV time series were derived by using the standard solar energy tool PVsyst.95 This study
chose a generic solar PV module and alternating current (AC)/direct current (DC) inverter available
within PVsyst. Then, PVsyst calculates the solar power output time series of this system at each of
the chosen locations. The PV power production is calculated with the appropriate irradiation time
series for each location. The irradiation time series are available within PVsyst and specified for a
typical meteorological year. In the PV time series calculations, a time series for temperature
correction is employed. However, the temperature time series is not exported. The solar energy
time series are normalised by dividing the power output by the nominal capacity of the generic
solar module used in the calculation.
Wave energy output shows much less variation than wind or solar power. For wave energy, this
study used monthly averages. In each month, the time series has the same hourly value equal to
the average of that month. Time series are taken to be the same for the whole Mediterranean
region. Values are taken from monthly wave resources measured in Italy 96 and are normalised with
the installed capacity of wave energy technology in the referenced project.
93
(Rienecker et al., 2011)
94
(Staffel et al., 2016); data obtained from www.renewables.ninja.
95
https://www.pvsyst.com/
96
(Vicinanza, 2011)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
wind, wave, and tidal pilot and demonstration projects. Onshore technologies such as onshore
wind and solar PV are widespread across the Mediterranean islands. Most of the countries in the
region have elaborated and submitted their final NECPs with an outline of their climate strategy
and targets per technology set for the coming decade. The highest targets are set for offshore
wind, followed by onshore energy, while wave and tidal energy targets are modest. The pathways
to reach 2030 targets and beyond differ substantially per country.
An assessment of the potentially suitable technologies for RES production in the Mediterranean
area shows that floating offshore wind remains a very promising technology. This fact is due to
large available areas with favourable wind speeds, suitable water depths, and relatively high
capacity factors, resulting in a technical potential of approximately 4,600 TWh/a by 2030 and
4,700 TWh/a by 2050. This data corresponds to an installed capacity potential of approximately
1,600 GW in 2030 and 1,620 GW in 2050.
Also, onshore technologies on islands, such as onshore wind and rooftop and utility-scale solar PV,
are promising technologies due to their maturity level, regulatory readiness, projected cost levels,
and social acceptance (in the case of solar). The technical potential for onshore wind is 60 TWh/a
or 22 GW in 2030 and 2050. For solar PV (rooftop and utility-scale combined), this study found a
technical potential of 150 TWh/a (90 GW) in 2030 and 207 TWh/a (125 GW) in 2050.
Wave energy has a significant technical potential at 4,500 TWh/a or 3,650 GW by 2050, 97
comparable to floating offshore wind. However, the technology is less mature and more expensive
than the aforementioned offshore and onshore technologies. Bottom-fixed offshore wind technical
potential is rather limited due to water depth constraints in the Mediterranean Sea and is
approximately 46 TWh/a (20 GW) in 2030 and 60 TWh/a (25 GW) in 2050. The role for tidal
energy will be more limited due to its limited resource and high cost levels; its technical potential
is limited to 22 TWh/a or 25 GW in 2050.
TMAs are identified where the resource potential is high within the areas available for power
generation by wind and wave energy. These 10 TMAs were chosen after careful consideration
based on the available areas for the three technologies with appropriate levels of resource
potential and LCOE. One area is identified because of the technology readiness level of bottom-
fixed wind. Areas that fit within a possible offshore meshed grid are prioritized. The final selection
of TMAs covers a wide range of the Mediterranean Sea from the Spanish Gulf of Cádiz to the Greek
Aegean Sea. For each of the TMAs, normalised time series are generated based on climatological
97
For wave technology, the technical potential is assumed to be the same in 2030 and 2050. See Section
1.4.1.2.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
data. These time series quantify the resource generation profile in time for all considered
technologies.
Within the TMAs, this study defined several production blocks. Chosen production blocks have a
size of roughly 140 km2 and cover the available area for all technologies within the TMAs. This 140
km2 size corresponds to a typical offshore wind farm size of 1 GW with a power density of 7 MW/
km2. For each production block, the resource potential is calculated along with the maximum
installed capacity and the average LCOE for all technologies. A ranking for TMAs is proposed.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
2.1 Scenarios
Based on the economic offshore energy production potential as identified in Task 1, this study
developed two realistic scenarios for each of the Mediterranean countries and for the years 2030
and 2050: the NECP scenario and the Ambitious scenario. These scenarios differ only with regards
to production capacity installed offshore; all other parameters such as fuel prices, demand, and
transmission capacity are kept constant. Also, LCOE for the different technologies are the same in
both scenarios, despite different volumes. These scenarios are essentially production scenarios,
only differing in installed offshore capacity. For each of the years 2030 and 2050, this study
developed one production scenario with NECP offshore energy generation and one production
scenario with ambitious offshore energy generation (see Figure). The NECP scenario fulfils the
targets in the NECPs, and the ambitious scenario has an increased share of offshore power
generation.
The production scenarios include all renewable and non-renewable technologies for EU-27, as the
power market model covers the EU as a whole (in addition to Norway and Switzerland). In the
model, Italy is divided into six bidding zones, and installed capacity and demand is defined for
each zone. For the other Mediterranean member states, installed capacity is defined at a national
level, meaning that intranational transmission systems are not explicitly modelled. Non-
interconnected systems are included in the model as part of the national systems. The production
scenarios were defined in two steps: by identifying the overall volumes and then assigning the
offshore Renewable Electricity Sources (RES-E) capacities to specific production blocks in the
TMAs.
Overall capacities are based on 2020 actuals and a thorough review of:
Decarbonization targets: the TYNDP’s National Trends scenario and the scenarios for 2030
and 2050 developed in the European Commission’s long-term strategy for a climate-
neutral economy.
As stated above, the NECP and ambitious scenarios only differ with regards to production capacity
installed offshore, and the scenarios share the same underlying assumptions regarding electricity
demand and deployment of onshore generation technologies. For both scenarios, overall volumes,
capacities, and electricity demand are aligned with explicit targets or indicative of trajectories
presented in the respective NECPs and other relevant long-term strategic documents. Therefore,
the scenarios can describe pathways with national efforts for achieving a climate-neutral economy
at the EU level by 2050. Even though cross-border transmission capacities have an important role
in balancing the variability of intermittent production sources and cover smaller energy
imbalances, the scenarios do not include large net producing countries supplying electricity to
other member states through large international power flows. On the contrary, each Member State
is assumed to cover its annual electricity demand nationally to a large extent.
Overall capacities are based on 2020 actuals and Sweco’s continuous scenario work updates, which
is described in Appendix B.1. For 2030, the capacities are aligned with the most updated NECPs
available at the time of writing with regards to:
Targets concerning the share of RES in electricity consumption. Almost all NECPs
contain explicit targets concerning shares of renewable electricity generation in 2030 (for
some countries, such as Croatia, the target indicates achieving the overall target for share
of RES in energy consumption). The total installed RES capacity, onshore as well as
offshore, is determined to achieve the presented targets.
Explicit targets or indicative trajectories of installed RES capacity in 2030. Most of
the NECPs contain technology-specific capacity targets or indicative trajectories for
reaching the general targets. Assumptions concerning installed capacity are aligned with
the targets or indicative trajectories in the respective NECPs as much as possible (primarily
the with additional measures scenarios).
Targets concerning phase out of existing nuclear or fossil generation
technologies. Several of the NECPs contain targets concerning the phase out of nuclear
or fossil power generation. For example, Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece all
present targets of phasing out coal and lignite before 2030, and the NECPs for Spain and
France contain targets of reducing nuclear power generation.
As of the execution of this study, not all countries have submitted their final NECP to the European
Commission. When possible, capacities are aligned with targets and trajectories of the final NECPs;
otherwise the draft NECPs have been used.
For 2050, Sweco’s long-term scenarios are aligned with existing targets in the NECPs and national
long-term strategies. Relevant objectives presented in the documents are summarized in Table
2-1.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 2-1: Relevant objectives for the electricity system in 2050 for this study’s
scenarios
Country Target
France Virtually carbon-free energy production by 2050 (with residual pollutants being
fossil fuels for air and sea transport and residual leaks)
(Source: Sweco)
For 2050, the NECPs at most contain objectives concerning the share of RES in electricity
generation, and the NECPs do not contain technology-specific trajectories or targets for installed
capacity. Based on installed capacities in 2030, estimated phase out and potential renewal of
existing production capacity, and the relevant objectives in Table 2-1, overall capacities are
determined by the following principles:
phased out from baseload and cogeneration and is only used for peak generation in a few
member states. Baseload and cogeneration by natural gas are completely phased out in
Portugal, Spain, and France and to a large extent in Italy. Between 2030 and 2050, new
natural gas capacity is only introduced in Slovenia and Croatia to replace phased-out
nuclear and oil generation.
Nuclear power capacity is based on current capacity, national targets, and
estimated phase out at the end of existing plants’ life cycles. French nuclear
capacity is reduced according to the national long-term target of reducing the nuclear
share of power generation to 50%by 2035. In Spain, nuclear capacity is assumed to be
phased out completely by 2050, based on the target scenario of the Spanish NECP. In
Slovenia, nuclear power generation is assumed to be phased out at the end of the existing
power plant’s life cycle between 2040 and 2045.
Assumed production capacities for the scenarios are shown in Figure 2-2 and Table 2-2. All
capacities are included per member state, regardless of location of offshore capacities
(Mediterranean Sea or other). The capacity assumptions in the model show a decrease in fossil-
based thermal capacity in all countries and a strong increase of solar and onshore wind power
production. In addition, offshore wind power is taking a substantial share of the renewable
capacity in Spain, France, Italy, and Greece.
Figure 2-2: Capacity assumptions in the different production scenarios for the
Mediterranean member states
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
2050 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 2030 2 800 31 500 8 000 49 700 450 600 5 150 900 300
2050 2 000 20 100 5 150 24 700 450 250 3 900 900 400
Biomass and 2030 1 400 2 350 2 000 4 000 100 200 500 50 0
waste
2050 2 000 2 750 2 950 3 750 50 150 900 50 0
Solar 2030 9 450 50 750 45 900 52 000 1 650 600 6 850 850 250
2050 17 200 75 500 61 650 74 700 6 400 2 400 11 900 2 200 700
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Year Scenario Portugal Spain France Italy Slovenia Croatia Greece Cyprus Malta
Wind 2030 9 000 48 600 37 150 18 400 150 1 300 7 650 200 0
onshore
2050 10 000 60 000 48 050 33 450 1 000 2 650 14 600 800 200
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Some key factors behind the low expectations of Mediterranean offshore generation are the high-
water depth (thus the limited potential for bottom-fixed offshore wind), the comparatively low
technology readiness level, and the high LCOE of floating wind and marine technologies. Based on
the findings of Task 1, the LCOE of wave and tidal remains considerably above a competitive level
through 2050, while the LCOE of floating offshore wind decreases towards current LCOE levels of
bottom-fixed turbines in 2030 and towards 2050. Both bottom-fixed and floating offshore wind
remain viable technology options for increasing renewable power generation in the Mediterranean
member states.
However, the future deployment of offshore power generation in general depends on its
competitiveness with alternative electricity sources, including other renewable electricity sources.
For the Mediterranean, the situation depends on its attractiveness compared to onshore wind and
solar power generation. Task 1 concluded that the LCOE of onshore wind and solar should continue
to drop and remain below the LCOE of offshore wind. This situation is most evident for utility-scale
solar PV, for which the estimated LCOE in 2030 and 2050 is roughly one-quarter of the LCOE of
floating offshore wind. The role of offshore wind in decarbonization of the Mediterranean power
system is influenced to a large extent by other factors limiting the potential of onshore wind and
solar or enhancing the attractiveness of offshore wind compared to the onshore alternatives, or
both. These important factors include:
prototype project under development. However, the progress for offshore wind projects has been
slow, and 4C’s offshore database of global wind farm projects lists all projects as dormant (4C
Offshore, 2020). In the NECP scenario, installed Greek offshore wind capacity in 2030 is therefore
assumed to be zero. For 2050, the offshore capacity is based on a general assessment of each
Member State from relevant national objectives, EU targets, and electricity demand in 2050. Given
that each Member State is assumed to cover its annual electricity demand nationally to a large
extent, offshore capacity is then estimated from assumptions concerning demand and the future
development of other production technologies. For example, a large amount of offshore capacity is
assumed to be installed in Italy due to ambitious targets, a relatively high electricity demand, and
a limited potential for nuclear and onshore wind deployment.
Installed offshore capacity and the offshore share of power generation are presented for each
Member State in Table 2-3. In the NECP scenario, Mediterranean offshore wind capacity grows
from 2,400 MW in 2030 to 32,700 MW in 2050 while marine power technologies stay limited to
prototype projects and initial capacity targets throughout the period. Mediterranean offshore wind
is mainly located in Italy and Spain, but significant amounts are also found in France and Greece.
The offshore share of power generation in 2050 ranges between 0% and 15%.
Table 2-3: Installed offshore capacity and offshore share of power generation in
the NECP scenario
Country Offshore wind capacity Wave capacity (MW) Tidal capacity (MW) Offshore
(MW) share of
power
generation
Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%
Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%
Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%
(Source: Sweco)
2030. Given the long permitting and installation times for offshore wind projects, little capacity is
expected to be installed before 2027. Even by assuming a rather efficient development time of 7
years including permitting and a rapid, immediate increase of offshore wind development projects,
the assumed increase in offshore wind capacity in 2030 requires an average installation rate of
around 4.5 GW/a. between 2027-2030. This scenario can be compared with the installation rate in
the northern seas, which during the last 5 years has been around 3 GW p.a. on average. The 2030
offshore wind capacity in the ambitious scenario can therefore be regarded as very ambitious;
however, the proposed capacity can be realized. The rapid increase of offshore wind projects is
assumed to continue, and in 2050, the amount of installed offshore wind capacity is expected to
be twice as large as the installed capacity in the NECP scenario, with a total capacity of 76 GW.
This situation can be compared with Wind Europe’s vision for 2050, which allocates 70 GW in the
Mediterranean.
As for wave and tidal, no additional development is assumed compared with the NECP scenario.
The reason for the limited buildout of marine power is the high LCOE compared with offshore wind
and the large potential for offshore wind estimated in Task 1. Due to the very high potential for
offshore wind in the Mediterranean, the need for commissioning more expensive marine power
projects is assessed to be small.
Table 2-4: Installed offshore capacity and offshore share of power generation in
the ambitious scenario
Country Offshore wind capacity Wave capacity (MW) Tidal capacity (MW) Offshore
(MW) share of
power
generation
Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%
Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%
(Source: Sweco)
98
Portuguese islands are not included since they are located in the Atlantic.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Based on the above information, the concrete mix and location for offshore capacity to be added—
wave, tidal, bottom-fixed, or floating wind power—has been based on two main factors: ranking
the TMAs and a best LCOE approach for each of the production blocks within the TMAs, up to the
total annual generation volume required for the NECP or ambitious scenario and strategic
considerations for production location.
The best LCOE approach simply uses the production blocks with the lowest LCOE over those with
higher LCOE on a regional Mediterranean level and within a country. However, a strict best LCOE
approach would not necessarily lead to scenarios that are optimal from a wider perspective.
Therefore, the initial strategic considerations for location of the production blocks also included
basic considerations of where demand centres in the respective countries are located, meaning
that this study implicitly avoided the need to build out the transmission grid just to accommodate
the offshore volumes. As an example, for Italy, this study used the Gulf of Venice for bottom-fixed
and floating offshore wind due to its location close to the highly industrialized north of Italy instead
of the lower LCOE locations around Sicily. In addition, a regional spread to two or more offshore
locations for a country minimizes the risk for the same weather patterns impacting the variable
power production.
In this study, the capacity of complete production blocks was always added. Typically, as the size
of each production block is around 140 km2, each production block has roughly the capacity for an
offshore wind park of 1 GW. For power market simulations, this study has not yet allocated RES-E
capacity specifically to islands since these capacities are included in the capacities for the entire
bidding zone.
(Source: Sweco)
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 2-5: Fuel price assumptions used in the study compared with other ENTSO-
E, EU, and IEA scenarios99
Fuel Medgrid TYNDP 2020 EU LTS IEA Stated IEA Sustain.
offshore (€/MWh) scenarios policies Development
(€/MWh) (€/MWh) (€/MWh) (€/MWh)
2030 2050 2030 2040 2030 2050 2030 2040 2030 2040
Hard Coal 15.5 24.9 15.5 24.9 13.7 15.5 9.7 9.9 7.4 7.6
Natural Gas 24.9 26.3 24.9 26.3 37.2 46.5 24.3 27.0 22.8 22.8
Light Oil 73.8 79.9 73.8 79.9 80.6 95.6 57.2 66.7 40.8 38.9
Heavy Oil 52.6 61.9 52.6 61.9 50.4 60.0 35.6 41.7 25.0 23.7
(Source: Sweco)
Cross-border transmission capacities for 2030 are based on current capacities and planned
projects in TYNDP 2020. Additional transfer capacities through 2050 have been added based on
the ST 2040 scenario in TYNDP 2020 and through Sweco’s identification of required capacities in
the iterative modelling process. The assumed interconnection levels of the Mediterranean member
states are shown in Table 2-6. Although increasing from 2017, the interconnection levels of
Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece are below the EU 2030 target in 2030 and 2050.
99
Prices have been transformed to comparable units and fuel types by Sweco.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 2-6: Assumed interconnection levels in the NECP scenario compared with
the EU 2030 target100
2017 2030 2050 EU 2030 target
(Actual)101
(Source: Sweco)
Another key parameter for the power market modelling is the future development of electricity
demand. European electricity demand is expected to increase significantly towards 2050 due to
electrification in the transport, heating, and industry sectors. However, the extent to which
electrification will affect electricity demand varies greatly between different scenarios and depends
on expectations of energy efficiency measures. In the analysis, electricity demand assumptions are
based on the national trends’ scenario of the TYNDP scenario report 2020. The national trends
scenario aims to reflect the commitments of each Member State in meeting the targets set by the
EC and includes the national objectives of the draft NECPs. The electricity demand in 2050 is based
on an extrapolation of ENTSO-E’s TYNDP national trend scenario for 2040 and Sweco’s long-term
demand scenarios, with the exception of Cyprus, whose demand has been adjusted to comply with
the long-term, 2050 projections in the NECP. The electricity demand in 2030 and 2050 is shown in
Figure 2-5 as relative to the demand in 2015. For the Mediterranean member states, the total
electricity demand is assumed to increase by 4% and 18% in 2030 and 2050, respectively. This
scenario can be compared with the European Commission’s long-term scenarios produced in the
in-depth analysis supporting the Commission’s vision for a climate-neutral EU by 2050 (European
Commission, 2018), where EU electricity demand increases by 16% to 2030 in the baseline
scenario and between 36-75% to 2050 depending on the scenario.
100
The interconnection level is calculated as the net transfer capacity (import/export) divided by the total
installed power generation capacity.
101
(European Commission, 2017)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
The load profile we currently use for 2030 and 2050 is not adjusted for the changes in
consumption within the different sectors.
Figure 2-6: Generation in the four production scenarios compared with the
2020 reference scenario
(Source: Sweco)
To test the viability of the production scenarios, the generation results have been tested against
the national targets in terms of share of produced electricity, on- and offshore. In all four
scenarios, the resulting national RES shares (the green dots in Figure 2-7) reach at least the
national target for 2030 (grey bar). In most countries, the ambitious scenarios add a few
percentage points between 2% and 9% in RES-share for 2030. This contributes further to a higher
RES share in Europe and to decarbonization.
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Portugal Spain France Italy Slovenia Croatia Greece Cyprus Malta
Target 2030 (NECP) Target 2030 (NECP) (upper) Med Offshore - NECP_2030 Med Offshore - Ambitious_2030
Figure 2-7: RES share for the Mediterranean countries in the two offshore
generation scenarios in 2030
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
140
120
100
Power price [EUR/MWh]
80
60
40
20
0
Portugal Spain France Italy Slovenia Croatia Greece Cyprus Malta
Med Offshore - NECP_2030 Med Offshore - Ambitious_2030 Med Offshore - NECP_2050 Med Offshore - Ambitous_2050
Power prices defined as short-run, marginal cost-based power prices in our power market model
are rather comparable throughout all countries in 2030, and power price levels still hinge very
much on fuel price and the CO2 price. With a decreasing share of fossil-based thermal capacity and
increasing share of variable renewables with low or close-to-zero marginal costs, power prices in
2050 still hinge on the CO2 price, which is assumed as 250 €/t in our scenarios. Regardless of
scenario year, power prices fall significantly with increased offshore RES-E ambitions.
To assess the market context, this study also looked at prices for each technology and compared
these to the LCOE of the chosen production blocks. Since grid connection costs, taxes, and
decommissioning costs are excluded from the LCOE cost calculation, the comparison is
underestimating actual LCOE by a few €/MWh and will only give a rough result. Nevertheless,
interesting observations can be made.
In general, captured prices for offshore wind are slightly lower than the average power price in
respective bidding zones in both 2030 scenarios. For Spain (about 5 €/MWh) and Greece (about 11
€/MWh), captured prices for offshore wind are considerably lower than the power price in the
ambitious scenario due to the high share of RES installed and similar production patterns from
other regions pushing down power prices at times.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 2-9: LCOE102 vs. power prices and captured prices in the 2030 NECP
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Nevertheless, in most countries and TMAs, general power prices and captured prices are high
enough to cover a substantial part of the LCOE of the chosen production blocks with either bottom-
fixed or floating offshore wind power (see Figure 2-9 and Figure 2-10).
For Sicily, the results indicate that at least a large part of the assumed production (567 MW) could
be installed on its own merits without the need for RES support. However, there would be a RES
support need for floating wind in the Gulf of Lion both in France and Spain and the North Aegean
Sea in addition to bottom-fixed wind in the Gulf of Venice.
102
LCOE values are without the dedicated grid connection, as calculated in Task 1.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 2-10: LCOE vs. power prices and captured prices in the 2030 ambitious
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Figure 2-11: CO2 emissions from power production in 2020, 2030, and 2050 in
the different production scenarios
(Source: Sweco)
Furthermore, the biggest additional gains can be made in almost all Mediterranean countries by
introducing more offshore generation, especially within the 2050 horizon (see Figure 2-12).
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 2-12: Further CO2 emissions savings for the NECP and ambitious scenarios
(Source: Sweco)
Power prices are rather comparable throughout all countries in 2030, and power price levels
depend still very much on fuel price and the CO2 price. With a decreasing share of fossil-based
thermal capacity and increasing share of variable renewables with low or marginal costs close to
zero, power prices in 2050 still hinge on the CO2 price but to a lesser degree, depending on how
much fossil-based capacity remains in the European power system. This study observes a strong
price volatility towards and an increasing number of hours with zero prices. Regardless of scenario
year, power prices fall significantly with increased offshore RES-E ambitions.
In general, captured prices for offshore wind are slightly lower than the average power price in the
respective bidding zones in both 2030 scenarios. For Spain and Greece, captured prices for
offshore wind are considerably lower than in the ambitious scenario due to the high share of RES
installed and similar production pattern from other regions pushing down power prices at times.
Nevertheless, in most countries and TMAs, general power prices and captured prices are high
enough to cover a substantial part of the LCOE of the chosen production blocks with either bottom-
fixed or floating offshore wind power. For Sicily, results indicate that at least a large part of the
assumed production could be installed on its own merits without the need for RES support.
However, there would be a RES support need for the floating wind in the Gulf of Lion (both in
France and Spain) and the North Aegean Sea in addition to bottom-fixed wind in the Gulf of
Venice. The analysis also shows that CO2 emissions fall significantly in most Mediterranean
countries between 2020 and 2030, most significantly in Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece, and
that substantial additional gains can be made in almost all Mediterranean countries by introducing
more offshore generation, especially with the 2050 horizon.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
3.1 Method
The grid connection was made in three steps. First, a base alternative was calculated. The base
alternative is a radial connection of each activated production block, meaning a straight line to
the nearest onshore 380 kV-400 kV transmission grid station in the same country as the
production block. Locations of grid stations have been retrieved from the ENTSO-E grid map and
further adjusted through other map studies where possible. The connection was designed (HVAC
or HVDC) and dimensioned based on the installed power of the production block and the
distance from the production block to the transmission grid station. The radial connection does
not have full redundancy, meaning that failure of a component might lead to the loss of an
entire production block. For certain cases with parallel cables, however, failure of a cable might
mean that the remaining cables can still transmit part of the production from the production
block. Failure of one component will not lead to the loss of production from more than one
production block.
As a second step, a partial optimization was made where production blocks were grouped
together to share one or more common links to shore, creating a hub connection. This situation
means that the connection can be built for higher powers and that the price per MW connected
decreases. The downside is that production blocks become dependent on each other. Failure of
a single cable might mean loss of production from several production blocks rather than just
one.
In a third step, the specific conditions at each TMA were assessed, and an optional grid
connection was considered, if deemed advantageous. Such a connection can include grouping of
several production blocks, connecting a production block to more than one onshore station, or
connecting production blocks so that two countries become interconnected. The benefits of the
optional grid connection have been described qualitatively, and the costs have been listed. If the
optional grid connection includes meshing (i.e., connection of a production block or a group of
production blocks to more than one onshore station), there will be a higher redundancy than in
the radial connection and hub connection. Loss of one component in this case does not lead to
loss of full production from a production block or group of production blocks. Figure 3-1
describes schematically the three different steps.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Each production block has been connected to the nearest onshore 380-400 kV
transmission grid station in the same country as the production block.
Only cables have been considered—no overhead lines.
Cable routes have been calculated as the bird flies. For the subsea part of the cable, a
linear sea bottom slope has been assumed.
No consideration has been given to the bottom topology, apart from the depth at the
production block.
Technology (HVAC or HVDC) has been chosen based on the cable length and total cost
(CAPEX, OPEX, and losses) over 25 years. For AC, 220 kV has been assumed. The unit
cost figures and loss figures used are listed in Appendix C.
Each connection has been dimensioned so that it can transmit the full power of the
production block.
The maximum single connection has been assumed to be 2 GW for technical reasons.
Each production block has been connected to the nearest onshore 380-400 kV
transmission grid station in the same country as the production block.
Only cables have been considered—no overhead lines.
All production blocks connecting to the same station have been grouped together, and
the connecting distance was assumed to be equal to the average distance from the
included production blocks to the station.
The associated costs and losses for the connection have been calculated using the total
installed power of the grouped production blocks and the average distance.
Technology (HVAC or HVDC) has been chosen based on the total cost (CAPEX, OPEX,
and cost of losses) over 25 years. For AC, 220 kV has been assumed. The unit cost
figures and loss figures used have been listed in Appendix C.
If the total power of the grouped production blocks exceeds 2 GW, the connection has been
calculated as a multiple of the costs for a 2 GW connection.
The above procedure means that no detailed design of how and where the production blocks
would be interconnected in reality was made. Instead, it is assumed that interconnection is
possible and that the cost for the total connection relates only to the total installed power and
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
the average distance. Thus, this is not an attempt to lay out a detailed connection option.
Rather, it is an indication at a general level of what cost benefits might come from market
forces, further developments of grid codes, and a more coordinated realization of projects in
comparison with the radial connection.
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
NECP
NECP
NECP
NECP
2030
2030
2050
2050
2030
2030
2050
2050
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-2: Costs and losses for radial connection, Gulf of Lion
Scenar CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
io
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-3: Costs and losses for hub connection, Gulf of Lion
Scenar CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
io
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
2030
2050
(Source: Sweco)
No optional
connection for
this scenario
scenario
The dimensioning of the added link is not self-evident. Furthermore, the added link introduces
possibilities to change the dimensioning of the links to shore since there is now more than one
path from each production block to shore. The suitable dimensions depend on strategic choices:
What is the value of extra redundancy for the grid connection versus the extra costs of a
link with a higher capacity?
What is the value of having the possibility to sell the produced electricity to more than
one country versus the extra cost of a link with higher capacity?
What are the projected possibilities for selling spare capacity in the created cross-
country link versus the extra cost of a link with higher capacity?
The necessary investigations to answer the above questions are beyond the scope of this study.
As a rough estimate, the extra link is dimensioned here so that its capacity is equal to the
greater of the two links to shore. Furthermore, the weaker of the two links to shore is also
upgraded so that its capacity is equal to the greater one. Thereby, the whole set of links has the
same capacity. The motivation for this upgrade is that the connection of France and Spain
across the Pyrenees is a known weak section of the grid. This topic is discussed further in
Section 3.4. The suggested design implies some possible operational choices:
The set of links can be used as a cross-country interconnector, and its spare capacity
can be sold.
The full power of either of the two groups of production blocks can be fed to either
country, in case of outage of the other group of production blocks.
The details of the optional connection are summarized in Table 3-4. Losses are not included
since they depend on how the meshed grid is operated.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-4: Costs for optional grid connection in the Gulf of Lion
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
France 320 504 728 1,362 4 7 10 19
(Source: Sweco)
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
Malta 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.5
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
Figure 3-5, and the associated costs are listed in Table 3-6. Because there is no 380 kV-400 kV
station on Malta, the connection is made to Italy instead. The size of the production block is
490 MW, and the connection length is about 160 km. Blue squares are production block centres,
and red circles are transmission grid stations.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
2030
2050
Malta 0 0 0 278 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 51
(Source: Sweco)
The connection length decreases from 160 km to 35 km. The costs are thereby
drastically decreased.
The possibility to export full power from the production block becomes dependent on:
The capacity of the link between Malta and Sicily
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Malta 0 0 0 99 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 44
(Source: Sweco)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 4 8 9 15 0.6 1.4 2.4 8.7
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-9. The individual connections are 90 km-163 km, connecting production blocks with
installed power of 70 MW-1,060 MW. Blue squares are production block centres, and red circles
are transmission grid stations.
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 711 1,5 1,9 3,9 8 18 23 47 59 148 295 1,11
29 20 61 5
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-10. The separate connections are 127 km-136 km, connecting production block groups
with a total installed power of 570 MW-8,690 MW. Blue squares are production block centres,
and red circles are transmission grid stations.
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 211 423 789 2,173 2 6 8 26 60 172 143 1,099
(Source: Sweco)
103
From ENTSO-E 10-year network development map.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-11 summarises the outcome for the different scenarios for this TMA with production
blocks connecting to Italy and Croatia.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 1 8 12 22 0.4 4 8 16.4
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-12. The individual connections are 31 km-112 km, connecting production blocks with
an installed power of 110 MW-970 MW. Blue squares are production block centres, and red
circles are transmission grid stations.
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-12: Costs and losses for radial connection, Gulf of Venice
Scenari CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
o
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 102 1,031 1,977 3,912 1 14 29 57 24 221 474 978
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-13. The separate connections are 33 km-107 km, connecting production block groups
with a total installed power of 430 MW-10,010 MW. Blue squares are production block centres,
and red circles are transmission grid stations.
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-13: Costs and losses for hub connection, Gulf of Venice
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
2030
2050
Italy 102 532 1,183 2,369 1 8 18 36 24 228 487 1,004
Croatia 0 202 334 472 0 202 334 472 0 202 334 472
(Source: Sweco)
No optional
connection for
this scenario
No optional
connection for
this scenario
(Source: Sweco)
The dimensioning of the added link is not self-evident. Furthermore, the added link introduces
possibilities of changing the dimensioning of the links to shore since more than one path now
exists from each production block to shore. The suitable dimensions depend on strategic
choices:
What is the value of extra redundancy for the grid connection versus the extra costs of a
link with a higher capacity?
What is the value of having the possibility to sell the produced electricity to more than
one country versus the extra cost of a link with higher capacity?
What are the projected possibilities for selling spare capacity in the created cross-
country link versus the extra cost of a link with higher capacity?
The necessary investigations to answer the above questions are beyond the scope of this study.
As a rough estimate, the extra link is here dimensioned so that its capacity is equal to the
weaker of the two links to shore (meaning the Croatian link). This implies several possible
operational choices:
The set of links can be used as a cross-country interconnector, and its spare capacity
can be sold.
The full power of the Croatian group of production blocks can be fed to either country in
case of an outage of the Italian group of production blocks.
Part of the power of the Italian group of production blocks can be fed to either country
in case of an outage of the Croatian group of production blocks.
Figure 3-13 summarises the details of the optional connection. Losses are not included because
they depend on how the meshed grid is operated.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
Portugal 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1.5
(Source: Sweco)
104
From ENTSO-E 10-year network development map.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
production blocks with installed power of 190 MW-990 MW. Blue squares are production block
centres, and red circles are transmission grid stations.
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-15: Costs and losses for radial connection, Gulf of Cádiz
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
Figure 3-15. Only for the 2050 ambitious scenario does the hub connection differ from the
radial connection. The separate connections for the 2050 ambitious scenario are 58 km-80 km,
connecting production block groups with a total installed power of 1,180 MW-2,650 MW. Blue
squares are production block centres, and red circles are transmission grid stations.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
However, Portugal and Morocco have agreed on plans for a link connecting the two countries.
Procedural and political issues apart, it is possible to envisage technical solutions where the
connection of the production blocks is realised in parallel with the envisaged link or the two
projects are integrated as a single multipole HVDC link. In either case, the two links would have
an impact on each other, though the economical outcome of such an impact is beyond the scope
of this study to describe.
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
Greece 0 2 3 4 0 2.2 3.3 4.3
(Source: Sweco)
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
Figure 3-16, and the associated costs are listed in Table 3-17. The individual connections are
58 km-100 km, connecting production blocks with installed power of 1,085 MW. Blue squares
are production block centres, and red circles are transmission grid stations.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-17: Costs and losses for radial connection, North Aegean Sea
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-18: Costs and losses for hub connection, North Aegean Sea
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 0 0 3 10 0 0 3.1 9.3
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-20. The individual connections are 57 km-89 km, connecting production blocks with
installed power of 710 MW-1,040 MW. Blue squares are production block centres, and red circles
are transmission grid stations.
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-20: Costs and losses for radial connection for the Ionian Sea
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
NECP 2030
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
Ambitious
2030
2050
2030
2050
2030
2050
Italy 0 0 614 2,094 0 0 8 27 0 0 261 769
(Source: Sweco)
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-21: Costs and losses for hub connection, Ionian Sea
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Italy 0 0 442 1,398 0 0 6 18 0 0 259 791
(Source: Sweco)
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
The radial connection for the four scenarios is illustrated in Figure 3-20: , and the associated
costs are listed in Table 3-23. The individual connections are 99 km-189 km, connecting
production blocks with installed power of 300 MW-1,010 MW. Blue squares are production block
centres, and red circles are transmission grid stations.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
Table 3-23: Costs and losses for radial connection for Corsica-Sardinia
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
Figure 3-21, and the associated costs are listed in Table 3-24. The separate connections are
133 km-183 km, connecting production block groups with a total installed power of 1,010 MW-
5,516 MW. Blue squares are production block centres, and red circles are transmission grid
stations.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
Notably, in the ENTSO-E 10-year network development plan, an HVDC interconnection between
northern Italy and Tunisia exists (see Figure 3-22). Procedural and political issues apart, it is
possible to envisage technical solutions where the HVDC link is realised in parallel with the
connection of the production blocks or integrated as a single multipole HVDC link. In any case,
the projects would have an impact on each other, though the economic outcome of such an
impact is beyond the scope of this study to describe. Section 3.4 contains some additional
comments on this situation.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
105
From ENTSO-E 10-year network development map.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
Greece 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 3.5
(Source: Sweco)
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
Figure 3-23, and the associated costs are listed in Table 3-26. For the sea-based production
blocks, the individual connections are 58 km-75 km long, connecting production blocks with
installed power of 940 MW-1,100 MW. For the islands, the individual connections are 30 km-121
km long, connecting production blocks with an installed power of 65 MW-140 MW. Blue squares
are production block centres, and red circles are transmission grid stations.
Since island production blocks are rather small, the radial connection will give a relatively high
cost per installed GW. Lumping them together, which is done in the next step, will result in
better equipment utilization. The costs for the hub connection will significantly decrease.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-26: Costs and losses for radial connection, South Aegean Sea
Scenario CAPEX [M€] OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
No activated No activated
production production
block for this block for this
scenario scenario
No activated
production
block for this
scenario
(Source: Sweco)
Table 3-27: Costs and losses for hub connection, South Aegean Sea
Scenario CAPEX (M€) OPEX (M€/year) Losses (GWh/year)
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
Ambitious 2030
Ambitious 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
NECP 2030
NECP 2050
(Source: Sweco)
106
http://www.ariadne-interconnection.gr/en/home-en/
107
https://tyndp.entsoe.eu/tyndp2018/projects/projects/293
108
https://www.admie.gr/sites/default/files/users/dssas/dpa-2021-2030-hartis.pdf
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
case, the projects would have an impact on each other, although the economic outcome of such
an impact is beyond the scope of this study to describe. Section 3.4 contains some additional
comments on this scenario.
Figure 3-25: Planned projects in the vicinity of South Aegean Sea from the
Ariadne Interconnection website (left) and the ENTSO-E 10-year network
development map (right)
(Source: Sweco)
Scenario
NECP Ambitious NECP Ambitious
2030 2030 2050 2050
(Source: Sweco)
In general, the transmission grid around the Mediterranean Sea is not very strong or well
meshed. Therefore, any major injection of power (in the order of GW) will likely need
reinforcements.
In the NECP 2030 scenario, injection of power is made at three locations: in the south of France
(Gulf of Lion), in the south of Italy (Sicily), and in the northeast of Italy (Gulf of Venice). An
injection of 1.4 GW from the Gulf of Lion is within the forecast for 2030 for that region of the
French transmission grid. Therefore, this injection might be handled without any major
additional reinforcements. Turning to Italy instead, the injection into Sicily is lower: 0.6 GW.
The grid is weak in this region with a known bottleneck between Sicily and mainland Italy. An
injection of power here would further increase the general power flow in Italy from the south to
the north. Thus, significant grid reinforcements would likely be necessary in Italy due to this
injection. The least demanding point of injection for the NECP 2030 scenario is in the north of
Italy. An injection here of 0.4 GW might alleviate the congestions stemming from the Italian
south-north power flow mentioned earlier. For this part, only minor grid reinforcements might
have to be made.
In the ambitious 2030 scenario, the injections mentioned in the previous paragraph are
increased. In addition, power is injected into the southwest of Spain (Gulf of Cádiz), the
northeast of Spain (Gulf of Lion), the northwest of Croatia (Gulf of Venice) and southeast of
Greece (North Aegean Sea). For the south of Spain, the injection is only 0.2 GW, meaning that
although the grid in general is not very strong in this region, it might suffice with only minor
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
reinforcements or no reinforcements at all. In the northeast of Spain, the injection is 1.8 GW,
meaning that major reinforcements are likely unavoidable. The injection into France in the Gulf
of Lion is increased from 1.4 GW in the NECP 2030 scenario to 3.3 GW. For such an injection,
major grid reinforcement will likely be necessary. The need for reinforcements increases for the
Italian grid since the injection into Sicily increases from 0.6 GW for the NECP 2030 scenario to
1.4 GW. For the Gulf of Venice, the injection into Italy is increased drastically, from 0.4 GW in
the NECP 2030 scenario to 4.0 GW. Thus, the necessary grid reinforcements also go from minor
to major. From the Gulf of Venice, injection of power into Croatia, with 0.4 GW in this scenario,
might be handled with only minor grid reinforcements. Finally, the ambitious 2030 scenario
includes an injection of 2.1 GW into the southeast of Greece from the North Aegean Sea—the
second largest injection in this scenario. However, this injection is made into the Athens region,
which is the main load centre in Greece with roughly 1/3-1/2 of the peak load. Thus, the
injected power might result in a less congested grid since it limits the need for power flow from
the northwest of Greece. Therefore, for Greece, minor grid reinforcements might suffice.
In summary, the NECP 2030 scenario necessitates major grid reinforcements in the Italian grid,
at least in the south. The ambitious 2030 scenario necessitates major grid reinforcements in the
north of Spain, the south of France, and in the south and north of Italy. For Greece and Croatia,
only minor grid reinforcements may be needed.
Although it is out of this report’s scope to assess the consequences of the 2050 scenarios region
by region, all involved countries except for Portugal should experience major needs for
reinforcements in the conservative scenario, whereas in the ambitious scenario, all countries will
be affected in a major way.
Direct connection. For this option to be feasible, there needs to be an obvious benefit
of the connection, relative to the option of connecting the transmission grids without
going through the TMAs.
Connection in coordination with other planned infrastructure projects. The
ENTSO-E TYNDP project sheets will be used as input for this option.
Looking at the 10 TMAs and how they are spread out across the Mediterranean Sea (see Figure
3-26), the distances between any two TMAs are very large. Thus, the option of a direct
connection of two TMAs is not considered economically feasible for two reasons. First, the cost
of such a connection would be the same as or larger than the cost of connecting the national
grids to each other without going through a TMA; second, a cross-country link involving a
production site along its way has a capacity that is not as predictable as a dedicated
transmission link.
Some possibilities exist for the option of integrating the TMAs with planned or envisaged future
infrastructure projects. In Figure 3-27 displays the ENTSO-E 10-Year Network Development Plan
(TYNDP), illustrating projects around the Mediterranean Sea in different stages of consideration.
Some of these projects have been described briefly in the earlier sections on optional grid
connections.
Studying Figure 3-26 and Figure 3-27, two of the TMAs are located close to projects that involve
interconnection of Italy and Tunisia, namely TMA Sicily and TMA Corsica-Sardinia. Thus, this is
one option for connecting TMAs to each other. The distances are very large, however, and such
an interconnection relies heavily on coordination of the four projects. In summary, coordinating
each of the TMAs with either of the HVDC interconnections seems more manageable than
considering a full interconnection.
The link connecting the Corsica-Sardinia TMA to shore (described in Section 3.2.8) has a 2050
maximum capacity of 6-9 GW depending on the scenario compared with the planned capacity of
the ENTSO-E TYNDP TuNur (Tunisia-Central Italy) link that is 2 GW. Integrating the two links
(assuming additional HVDC converters in the TMA) would decrease the total cost for the two
projects. Since the common cable path for the two projects is quite long (in the order of 100-
200 km), significant cost benefits could likely be achieved. However, integrating the two links
would add a factor of uncertainty in the cross-country transfer capacity since the capacity would
be dependent on the production from the TMA. In general, this situation is not desirable for
TSOs due to difficulties in planning. On the other hand, it could be argued that for a future case,
additional grid codes and market forces might provide a framework in which two entities share a
common link with certain limitations, low uncertainties, and a clear benefit to both parties.
A similar argument could be made for the integration of the TMA of Sicily (described in Section
3.2.3) with the ENTSO-E TYNDP Sicily-Tunisia interconnector. The planned capacity of the latter
is 0.6 GW, and the maximum capacity of the link connecting the TMA to shore is 0.6 GW-8.7
GW, depending on the scenario. The shared cable path would be in the order of 50 km or more,
again providing a possibility for cost benefits.
Finally, the possibilities of integration of the South Aegean Sea TMA (described in Section 3.2.9)
with the Ariadne interconnector could also be studied in the same way. The planned capacity of
the Ariadne interconnector is 1 GW, and the 2050 maximum capacity of the link connecting the
TMA to shore is 3.5 GW. The shared cable path would be in the order of 50 km or more,
providing a possibility for cost benefits here as well.
For Gulf of Lion, the optional grid connection (see Section 3.2.1.3) involved a link between
production blocks belonging to France and production blocks belonging to Spain, creating a
109
From the ENTSO-E 10-year network development map.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
cross-country link. Such a link would increase the transfer capacity between the countries,
which might affect the planned grid reinforcements in the western part of the Pyrenees (marked
in red in Figure 3-27). The planned reinforcements would result in an estimated increase of
transfer capacity of 1.5+1.5 GW.110 The proposed offshore link in the TMA with a maximum
capacity of 2.8 GW, 4.5 GW, and 7.4 GW for the 2030 ambitious scenario, the 2050 NECP
scenario, and the 2050 ambitious scenario, respectively, could work as either a complement or
substitution for the planned reinforcements. Looking at a future situation with high amounts of
PV generation being transported from northern Africa through Europe, both the reinforcements
across the Pyrenees and an offshore link may be needed.
In general, this study’s methodology is aligned with the latest draft of ENTSO-E’s cost and
benefit methodology from autumn 2019 as shown in Figure 3-28, focusing on the cost and
benefit elements without considering residual impacts.
110
ENTSO-E TYNDP 2018 Project sheets 270 and 276.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
The analysis of CAPEX and OPEX for the different grid options, resistive losses, cost of RES
curtailment, and the evaluation of security of supply are explained in Section 3.1. The
socioeconomic parameters of producer surplus, consumer surplus, congestion rent, and CO2
emissions from power generation are the result of extensive power market modelling of the
different production scenarios and grid options.
The CAPEX and OPEX values for offshore power generation used in the scenarios are the results
from Task 1 and their deployment in the production scenarios. Then, the CAPEX and OPEX costs
were added for the different grid configurations offshore. Both CAPEX for power generation and
external grid connection are annualised with their respective life-length and WACC (see Table
1-23).
This study aimed at including rough CAPEX and OPEX cost estimates for necessary onshore grid
reinforcements due to the offshore generation for 2030, based on TSO expert interviews rather
than grid modelling. However, this study does not have quantification yet and therefore must
leave out these costs from the analysis. For 2050, estimates for onshore grid reinforcements will
not be possible since they would require a much more detailed understanding of the detailed
grid in 2050 in the reference scenario than can be made in this study.
Costs and benefits are summarised to show the effects on the system as a whole and for the
Mediterranean region as a whole rather than for each Member State, since positive effects in
one MS could cause negative impacts on one or more member states. The effects per Member
State are available, however.
2030_NECP_RC (the 2030 NECP scenario with radial connection from each production
block to shore)
2030_NECP_HC (the 2030 NECP scenario with a hub connection to shore)
2030_Ambitious_RC (the 2030 ambitious scenario with radial connection)
2030_Ambitious_HC (the 2030 ambitious scenario with a hub connection to shore)
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA1 (the 2030 ambitious scenario with an interconnector between
France and Spain through TMA1)
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA5 (the 2030 ambitious scenario with an interconnector between
Italy and Croatia through TMA5)
Socioeconomic effects and CO2 emissions are simulated with Sweco’s power market model
Apollo, described in Appendix B.1. All market modelling analysis is based on a single model
year, either 2030 or 2050, simulated with a single weather year, 2014. While this study does
compare scenarios for the same model year (e.g., the 2030 NECP and 2030 ambitious
scenario), comparisons are best made for smaller changes in generation, as the same
transmission capacities are assumed in both scenarios. Furthermore, for the evaluation of the
interconnector options, this study only compares the respective scenario without the
interconnector to the scenario with the interconnector.
25,000 10,000
CAPEX external grid connection
CAPEX [MEUR]
[MEUR/year]
20,000 8,000 CAPEX floating wind [MEUR]
RES-integration [MW]
10,000 4,000
5,000 2,000
0 0
Figure 3-29: CAPEX and RES integration for the various 2030 production
scenarios and grid options
(Source: Sweco)
The analysis shows that the hub connection provides a lower CAPEX than the radial connection,
regardless of production scenario. The total CAPEX of integrating about 2.4 GW of offshore
generation, including grid connection by 2030 in the NECP scenario, is around 6 billion €. The
total CAPEX of integrating 13 GW in the ambitious scenario is about 28-31 billion €, depending
on grid connection and whether an interconnector is integrated or not. Despite utilizing some of
the best sites for bottom-fixed offshore, this study is also using a significant amount of floating
offshore sites in 2030. Floating offshore wind stands for about two-thirds of the investments in
offshore power generation in our ambitious 2030 scenario.
The two interconnector options connecting two countries show a diverse picture. The
interconnector from Spain to France yields higher socioeconomic welfare results mainly based
on a higher producer surplus in Spain and Portugal and increased congestion rent for France,
resulting in a positive result for the Mediterranean region. However, the decrease in congestion
in Croatia for the TMA5 interconnector is not offset by a higher consumer surplus.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
8,000
Change in Congestion Rent other countries
6,000 [MEUR]
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2030_Ambitious_RC
2030_Ambitious_HC
2030_NECP_HC
Total
The interconnector option for TMA1 leads to increased export from Spain to France and from
Portugal to Spain, raising power prices in Portugal by 0.3 €/MWh and in Spain by 0.5 €/MWh
while slightly decreasing the power price in France as a bigger and more connected system with
0.1 €/MWh. In turn, this situation leads to a higher producer surplus in Spain and Portugal but a
lower producer surplus in France while consumer surplus increases in France and decreases in
Spain and Portugal as a consequence of higher prices. Congestion rent for the existing
interconnectors from Spain is dropping slightly, as these are used less, but congestion rent is
increasing for France (see Figure 3-30). From an overall Mediterranean perspective, the
socioeconomic results are also positive with 126 M€/year.
250
200
150
Welfare-economic Chnage [MEUR]
100
50
0
Portugal Spain France Italy Croatia
-50
-100
-150
-200
(Source: Sweco)
The interconnector option for TMA5 leads to lower power prices in Croatia (-1 €/MWh) while the
power price in Italy remains largely unchanged. This situation leads to a lower producer surplus
in Croatia and a somewhat lower producer surplus in Italy while consumer surplus increases in
Croatia and Italy. Congestion rent for the existing interconnectors from and to Croatia are
dropping significantly. From an overall Mediterranean perspective, the socioeconomic results are
also slightly negative at -8 M€/year. However, results of this magnitude might very well change
if simulated with different weather years.
30
25
20
Welfare-economic Chnage [MEUR]
15
10
5
0
-5 Spain France Italy Croatia Greece
-10
-15
-20
-25
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
2030_Ambitious_RC
2030_Ambitious_HC
2030_NECP_HC
0 0.0
-8
-10
-8.6 -8.6 -8.3 -8.6
-12
-14
-16
-18
Figure 3-33: CO2 emissions savings of the production scenarios and their grid
options compared with the NECP 2030 scenario with a radial connection
(Source: Sweco)
The CO2 savings for the Mediterranean countries alone are slightly higher for the TMA1
connection than for the TMA5 connection.
3.5.1.4 Summary
Table 3-29 summarizes the costs and benefits for including the additional benefit of avoided CO 2
emissions in relation to the 2030 NECP scenario with a radial connection. A positive figure in the
table means lower cost (e.g., a lower grid connection cost) and higher benefits while a negative
figure means higher cost or less benefits than the 2030 NECP scenario with a radial connection.
The societal cost of CO2 emissions is much higher than reflected in the current CO2 price.
However, to have a bottom line, the cost is varied between the current CO2 price (see Table
3-29 Figure 3-34) and 150 €/t111 (see Figure 3-35).
111
Value set to 150 EUR/t for comparison. The choice of value does not aim to quantify the abatement cost
but rather aims to illustrate the scenario if the abatement cost were at that level and included in the
analysis.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table 3-29: Summary of costs and benefits112 for production scenarios and
grid options in 2030 in relation to the 2030 NECP scenario with radial
connection, societal cost for CO2=EU-ETS price
2030_NE 2030_ 2030_ 2030_ 2030_
CP_HC Ambitious_ Ambitious Ambitious- Ambitious-
RC OC-TMA1 OC-TMA5
(Source: Sweco)
400
6,000
Change in total [MEUR]
2030_NECP_RC [MEUR/year]
300
4,000
Societal benefit of CO2 avoided other
200 countries [MEUR/year]
2,000 Societal benefit of CO2 avoided Mediterranean
countries [MEUR/year]
100
Welfare economics other countries
0 [MEUR/year]
0 Welfare economics Mediterranean countries
[MEUR/year]
-2,000 Annual cost external grid connection
-100 [MEUR/year]
Annual cost offshore power generation
-4,000 -200 [MEUR/year]
Total
Figure 3-34: Costs and benefits of the different 2030 production scenarios and
grid options with societal cost of CO 2 equal to EU-ETS price (28 €/t)
(Source: Sweco)
112
There are parameters that could significantly affect the cost-benefit analysis results, other than the cost
of onshore grid reinforcement and CO2 price, including: weather years examined, scenarios examined,
WACC for different components (where decisive policies can have a beneficial impact), the impact of
grid failures (this may have a significant impact on offshore connections; see for example the historical
low availability of the existing Italy-Greece interconnector). This study analysed one single normal
weather year, normal grid availability, and one WACC level.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
With the analysed parameters for 2030, all ambitious scenarios with 13 GW RES integration
yield higher benefits than the NECP scenarios with 2 GW of installed offshore capacity by
lowering power prices and increasing consumer surplus, with and without a higher price than
EU-ETS as societal cost for CO2. However, this analysis disregards the cost for onshore grid
reinforcement, which could not be monetized.
In addition, of the analysed grid options, the hub connections always show better results than
the radial connections in 2030. Of the interconnector options, the results indicate that an
interconnector between Spain and France via the TMA 1 (Gulf of Lion) could be promising. This
TMA should be further analysed for onshore grid connection costs and indicators of security of
supply, as it provides benefits such as positive socioeconomic results and contributes to an
emissions reduction of 0.2 Mt of CO2 per year.
2500
6,000
2000
4,000 1500
Societal benefit of CO2 avoided other
1000 countries [MEUR/year]
2,000 Societal benefit of CO2 avoided Mediterranean
500 countries [MEUR/year]
Welfare economics other countries
0 0 [MEUR/year]
Welfare economics Mediterranean countries
-500 [MEUR/year]
-2,000 Annual cost external grid connection
-1000 [MEUR/year]
Annual cost offshore power generation
-4,000 -1500 [MEUR/year]
Total
Figure 3-35: Costs and benefits of the different 2030 production scenarios and
grid options with an assumed societal cost of CO2 of 150 €/t
(Source: Sweco)
2050_NECP_RC (the 2050 NECP scenario with radial connection from each production
block to shore)
2050_NECP_HC (the 2050 NECP scenario with a hub connection to shore)
2050_NECP-OC-TMA1 (the 2050 NECP scenario with an interconnector between France
and Spain and TMA1)
2050_NECP-OC-TMA5 (the 2050 NECP scenario with an interconnector between Italy
and Croatia and TMA5)
2050_Ambitious_RC (the 2030 ambitious scenario with radial connection)
2050_Ambitious_HC (the 2030 ambitious scenario with a hub connection to shore)
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA1 (the 2050 ambitious scenario with an interconnector between
France and Spain and TMA1)
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA5 (the 2050 ambitious scenario with an interconnector between
Italy and Croatia and TMA5)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
[MEUR/year]
CAPEX floating wind [MEUR]
80,000 50,000
CAPEX bottom-fixed wind [MEUR]
60,000 40,000
30,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
0 0
Figure 3-36: CAPEX and RES integration for the various 2050 production
scenarios and grid options
(Source: Sweco)
The two interconnector options connecting two countries show a diverse picture. The
interconnector from Spain to France yields higher socioeconomic welfare results mainly based
on a higher producer surplus in Spain and Portugal and increased congestion rent for France,
resulting in a positive result for the Mediterranean region. However, the decrease in producer
surplus is just offset by an increase in congestion rent for Croatia for the TMA5 interconnector.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
30,000
20,000
2050_Ambitious_HC
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2050_NECP_HC
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
2050_NECP-OC-TMA1
2050_NECP-OC-TMA5
600
400
Welfare-economic Chnage [MEUR]
-600
-800
1,500
1,000
Welfare-economic Chnage [MEUR]
-1,000
-1,500
300
250
Welfare-economic Chnage [MEUR]
200
Producer surplus effect of
150
MedOffshore_NECP_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
100 Consumer surplus effect of
MedOffshore_NECP_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
50
Change in congestion rent with
0 MedOffshore_NECP_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
Portugal Spain France Italy Croatia
-50 Total welfare-economic effect of
MedOffshore_NECP_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
-100
-150
-200
600
500
Welfare-economic Chnage [MEUR]
400
Producer surplus effect of
300
MedOffshore_Ambitious_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
200 Consumer surplus effect of
MedOffshore_Ambitious_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
100
Change in congestion rent with
0 MedOffshore_Ambitious_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
Portugal Spain France Italy Croatia
-100 Total welfare-economic effect of
MedOffshore_Ambitious_2050_OptionalGrid_TMA5
-200
-300
-400
0 -0.5
-1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3
-2.7
-2
-3
-4
-4.3 -4.3 -4.6
-5 -4.2
-6 CO2 emission savings, other countries
-7
-8 CO2 emission savings, Mediterranean
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
2050_Ambitious_HC
2050_Ambitious_RC
2050_NECP_HC
2050_NECP-OC-TMA1
2050_NECP-OC-TMA5
countries
Figure 3-42: CO2 emissions savings of the production scenarios and their grid
options compared with the NECP 2050 scenario with a radial connection
(Source: Sweco)
costs. On the downside, this also means a limited decrease in security of supply, as the outage
of a cable could mean the loss of more than one production block. Another difference between
the radial connection and the hub connection is that the former can be realised without
coordination of the different production blocks, whereas the latter assumes that the whole group
of production blocks is realised as a common project. A common project is more difficult to
achieve with a step-by-step approach and generally requires a bigger commitment in terms of
investments and policies. Thus, a full comparison between the options needs to take into
consideration not only the summary costs but also the strategic choices involved.
As for the alternative of connecting several TMAs to each other, this study concludes that the
distances between TMAs are too large for this to be feasible in relation to the distances between
TMAs and the transmission grid. However, in a few cases, possible coordination benefits exist
for ongoing or planned projects in the region and the realisation of TMAs. More specifically, this
concerns the following TMAs: Sicily, Corsica-Sardinia, and the North and South Aegean Sea. For
Sicily, potential exists for the integration with the ENTSO-E TYNDP Sicily-Tunisia interconnector,
which shares an approximate cable path with the link from the TMA spanning some 50 km or
more. For Corsica-Sardinia, potential exists for the integration with the ENTSO-E TYNDP TuNur
(Tunisia-Central Italy) link, which shares an approximate cable path with the link from the TMA,
spanning some 100 km or more. For the North Aegean Sea, potential exists for coordination
with a foreseen submarine grid connecting major islands, laid out in the national TYNDP. For the
South Aegean Sea, potential exists for the integration with the Ariadne interconnector, which
shares an approximate cable path with the link from the TMA spanning some 50 km or more.
There is also potential for integration with a foreseen submarine grid connecting major islands,
laid out in the national 10-Year Network Development Plan and the ENTSO-E TYNDP Southern
Aegean interconnector.
All scenarios require considerable investments in offshore power generation and the connection
to the onshore grid, often including considerable reinforcement of the onshore grid. At the same
time, especially in 2030, limited RES support will be needed for the offshore wind generation
investments to be realised. The total CAPEX of integrating about 2.4 GW of offshore generation
including grid connection by 2030 in the NECP scenario is around 6 billion €. The total CAPEX of
integrating 13 GW in the ambitious scenario is about 28-31 billion €, depending on grid
connection and whether an interconnector is integrated or not. Despite utilizing some of the
best sites for bottom-fixed offshore, this study is also using a significant amount of floating
offshore sites in 2030. Floating offshore wind stands for about two-thirds of the investments in
offshore power generation in the ambitious 2030 scenario. To reach the RES integration of
about 82 GW of offshore capacity in the Mediterranean in the ambitious 2050 scenario (of which
76 GW is in the Mediterranean TMAs defined in this study), about 120-130 billion € of
accumulated investments are necessary until 2050.
The cross-country interconnection from Italy to Croatia in the Gulf on Venice was found to not
be economically beneficial, whereas the Gulf of Lion interconnector from France to Spain was
found to be economically beneficial. However, the French permanent representative has
expressed strong doubts as to the plausibility of the interconnector due to seabed conditions
and public acceptance, among other things.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
2030 2050
CAPEX and RES integration CAPEX and RES integration 2030 CAPEX and RES integration 2050
140,000 90,000 140,000 90,000
CAPEX [MEUR]
100,000
60,000 60,000
80,000 50,000 80,000 50,000
60,000 40,000 40,000
60,000
30,000 30,000
40,000 40,000
20,000 20,000
20,000 10,000 20,000
10,000
0 0
0 0
CAPEX external grid connection [MEUR/year] CAPEX external grid connection [MEUR/year]
CAPEX floating wind [MEUR] CAPEX floating wind [MEUR]
CAPEX bottom-fixed wind [MEUR] CAPEX bottom-fixed wind [MEUR]
RES-integration [MW] RES-integration [MW]
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
0 0
-10,000 -10,000
-20,000 -20,000
-30,000
-30,000
-40,000
-40,000
2030_NECP_HC
2030_Ambitious_HC
2030_Ambitious_RC
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
2050_NECP_HC
2050_NECP-OC-TMA1
2050_NECP-OC-TMA5
2050_Ambitious_RC
2050_Ambitious_HC
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
Change in Congestion Rent other countries [MEUR] Change in Congestion Rent other countries [MEUR]
Change in Congestion Rent Mediterranean [MEUR] Change in Congestion Rent Mediterranean [MEUR]
Change in Consumer Surplus other countries [MEUR] Change in Consumer Surplus other countries [MEUR]
Change in Consumer Surplus Mediterranean [MEUR] Change in Consumer Surplus Mediterranean [MEUR]
Change in Producer Surplus other countries [MEUR] Change in Producer Surplus other countries [MEUR]
Change in Producer Surplus Mediterranean [MEUR] Change in Producer Surplus Mediterranean [MEUR]
Total Total
-2.7
CO2 emission svaings [Mt]
CO2 emission savings
-3 -6.8 -6.8 -3
-7.3 -7.0
-4.3 -4.3 -4.2 -4.6
-5 -5
-7 -7
-9 -9
2050_NECP-OC-TMA5
2050_NECP-OC-TMA1
2050_Ambitious_HC
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
2050_Ambitious_RC
2050_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2030_NECP_HC
2030_Ambitious_RC
2030_Ambitious_HC
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA1
2030_Ambitious-OC-TMA5
With the analysed parameters for 2030, all ambitious scenarios with 13 GW RES integration
yield higher socioeconomic benefits than the NECP scenarios with 2 GW of installed offshore
capacity by lowering power prices and increasing consumer surplus, with and without a higher
price than EU-ETS as societal cost for CO2. However, this analysis disregards the cost for
onshore grid reinforcement or additional support scheme costs, which could not be monetized.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Of the interconnector options, the 2030 and 2050 results indicate that an interconnector
between Spain and France via TMA 1 (Gulf of Lion) could be promising. This option should be
further analysed for onshore grid connection costs and indicators of security of supply, as it
provides positive socioeconomic results and contributes to an emission reduction of 0.2 Mt of
CO2 per year.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
113
(PROMOTioN, 2019c); (PROMOTioN, 2017a); (3E and Project Partners, 2015); (PwC, 2016); (Interreg,
2017); (Integrid, 2019); (MAESTRALE, 2016); (Intelligent Energy Europe, 2016); (3E and Project
Partners, 2015); (Soukissian et al., 2017); (Javier Serrano-González and Roberto Lacal-Arántegui,
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, March 2015); (Roland
Berger, 2019)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
EU-wide barriers and implementation challenges that also play a role in the
development of offshore grids and offshore renewable energy across other European sea
basins, such as the Northern Seas and the Baltic Sea, and will most likely be solved
within those basins first.
Region-specific barriers and implementation challenges applying to one or more
member states or localities in the Mediterranean, requiring specific attention to facilitate
regional offshore developments.
A rank is subsequently assigned to each barrier according to its level of impact for offshore
developments in the Mediterranean region: low, moderate, or strong. Offshore grid and
renewable developments in the Mediterranean region currently lag behind other European sea
basins, such as the Northern and Irish Seas and the Baltic Sea. Some of the barriers should be
solved during developments in those sea basins and should not have a strong impact when
developments move to a further stage in the Mediterranean. Further details on each barrier and
implementation challenge and their geographical scope and impact are provided in Appendix D.
Table 4-1 summarizes the results of the analysis. The list of barriers and implementation
challenges, their scope and impact have been reviewed by the Advisory Board and a selected
list of interviewees from key stakeholder associations in the offshore area 114 (see 0).
Table 4-1. Identified barriers and implementation challenges per category with
geographical scope and ranking115
Barrier Geographical scope Rank
Offshore grid and renewable generation technologies Strong
1 Availability of mature offshore renewable energy and Region-specific / EU-wide Strong
grid technologies suitable for the development of an
offshore grid in the Mediterranean
2 Coordinated offshore grid technologies and EU-wide Strong
interoperability of assets
3 Availability of supply chain for components, labour EU-wide / Region-specific Strong
force, and infrastructure to develop offshore renewables
and grid infrastructure
Offshore grid design and planning Moderate
1 Data availability for planning Region-specific Moderate
2 Regional communication and cooperation on various Region-specific Moderate
levels
3 Competing offshore activities limit exploitation of full Region-specific Strong
offshore renewables potential
4 Natural constraints Region-specific Moderate
5 Regional offshore grid development strategy Region-specific Moderate
114
Wind Europe; ENTSO-E; Med TSO; Ocean Energy; Med Reg.
115
See 1.1.1.1Appendix D for further details.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Offshore grid and renewable generation technologies: grid connection and technology
maturity
Offshore RES generation related to support schemes
Administrative/governance processes
Social and environmental constraints
The results feed into Section 5.0, where recommendations for solutions and mitigation
measures are presented for the categories of barriers most crucial to facilitating next steps for
development in the Mediterranean.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Figure 5-1: RES share for the Mediterranean countries in the two offshore
generation scenarios in 2030
(Source: Sweco)
This potential includes mainly floating wind technology, as this technology fits best the
geographic specificities of the Mediterranean region and its cost is expected to decrease in the
future. The analysis shows that additional offshore wind capacity, and floating wind in particular,
can be added to the Mediterranean energy systems in a cost-effective manner: 13 GW by 2030
and 80 GW by 2050 in the ambitious scenario. This addition would increase the share of RES
generation from 2% to 6% in the NCEP scenario in 2030 and from 12% to 21% in the ambitious
scenario in 2050. Other contributing technologies are mainly bottom-fixed wind and onshore
technologies such as solar PV and onshore wind. Although this study forecasts growth of wave
and tidal energy, it is not expected to develop in the Mediterranean region with the assumptions
adopted for the analysis for the following reasons: limited economic potential in the
Mediterranean region, relatively low maturity, small capacity of technologies under
development, and high costs. However, ocean energies may develop under specific conditions,
such as further support of R&D efforts.
For the Mediterranean region under study, this study identified selected areas (TMAs) that are
most promising for offshore energy development. The 10 areas with the greatest cost-effective
potential for various technologies or combinations thereof are the Gulf of Lion, Malta, Sicily, Gulf
of Venice, Gulf of Cadiz, North Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, Corsica-Sardinia, South Aegean Sea,
and the Baleares. The analysis and scenarios focused on these identified TMAs. Based on the
economic offshore energy production potential in each of the areas, this study developed two
realistic scenarios (the NECP scenario and the ambitious scenario) in two-time perspectives:
2030 and 2050.
In the process, interesting developments were observed in specific locations (e.g., Greece and
Malta), and further analysis on the sub regional level may show interesting offshore
opportunities in countries not represented in this analysis. Increasing the share of renewable
energy should have positive CO2 reduction effects. It should decrease power prices from more
renewable investments, which will be particularly important to inhabited islands where (fossil-
based) energy has been commonly subsidized to assure comparable energy prices with the
mainland.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
The other key conclusion is that the Mediterranean region does not require one meshed grid
solution covering the entire region. On the contrary, this study recommends considering several
sub regional hubs linking offshore installations with interconnectors. For all production
scenarios, the hub connection yields lower CAPEX than the strictly radial connection
alternatives. The reason is that the hub connection utilizes a common interconnection for
several production blocks, thereby limiting the construction and material costs. On the
downside, it requires coordination between production blocks and sometimes neighbouring
states and their policies. Additionally, some coordination benefits of ongoing or planned
interconnection projects are possible in the following TMAs: Sicily, Corsica-Sardinia, and the
North and South Aegean Seas. The following section proposes several interesting concepts that
should be further analysed and that leverage the established Med TSO and ENTSO-E processes.
A full comparison of the options needs to take into consideration not only the summary costs
but also the strategic choices involved.
Prepare detailed analysis of potential for economically viable variable renewables (vRES)
offshore and on islands.
Analyse the potential constraints and potential multiuse of space in maritime spatial
plans, including possibilities to use the protected areas, limitations from bird migration
routes, existing oil and gas industry (O&G), and military sites.
Support the development of environmental impact studies, including monitoring birds
and mammals, and procedures for pre-investment and post-investment for bird
migration routes in particular.
Develop best practices for minimizing impacts on wildlife from energy generation
infrastructure.
Consider increasing the level of RES ambition of the NECPs with an updated analysis of
the economic potential in the NECP review process.
Revisit the grid development plans, including potential grid development of offshore
energy and additional interconnectors concepts, corresponding with the plans for RES
exploitation.
Further develop offshore grid design and planning. This analysis is needed to facilitate
vRES (both on- and offshore) development and integration into the power grids on all
voltage levels. EU member states can further increase cooperation within
bilateral/multilateral working groups and Med TSO for grid planning for the most
attractive production blocks.
Facilitate offshore and onshore grid connection models. Most Mediterranean countries do
not have offshore grid connection models (grid delivery model) for offshore RES in place
yet. Therefore, there is an urgent need to facilitate this process on the regional level
and with active EU support. This study recommends the following:
Quantify the onshore grid effects of the two proposed scenarios.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Discuss the proposed models for the connection of offshore RES with neighbouring
countries (both in the EU and outside of the EU, depending on the possible
interconnector), in particular for the development of joint hybrid offshore RES
projects.
Coordinate within the subregions (e.g., Spain-Portugal-Morocco, Spain-France,
Italy-Tunisia, or Greece-Cyprus-Israel).
Developing rules for this element of RES plant operation (both on- and offshore) should also be
considered. Therefore, this study proposes the following activities:
Initiate detailed cost analysis for exploiting the additional RES offshore potential and the
necessary support schemes.
Align balancing and grid services markets and propose cross-border coordination where
RES producers could offer services.
Address the cost and carbon intensity of energy on islands—a priority for prompt
decarbonization and the elimination of energy poverty; Italy and Greece indicate higher
levels of support for islands, but Italy also links dedicated support to system analysis on
islands. Another solution would be to redirect energy subsidies /tax allowances for
islands from fossil energy to renewable energy (Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017).
Propose and discuss ways of aligning support schemes/balancing and grid services
within the specific subregions.
Also, a number of measures can be taken at the EU and member state level to overcome
unnecessary hurdles in these fields:
Gulf of Lion with high floating offshore wind and wave potential combined with the
interconnection between Spain and France
Gulf of Venice with a very interesting opportunity in bottom-fixed offshore wind, which
could be connected to the shore with a hub connection and Italy-Croatia interconnection
North Aegean Sea with substantial floating offshore wind and wave potential, with the
possibility of linking these offshore resources with the extended submarine grid for
interconnection of major islands in the Aegean Sea
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
TMA southwest of Sicily offers floating and bottom-fixed offshore wind opportunities,
large wave potential, and large potential for onshore technologies in Sicily and nearby
islands; it is possible to imagine technical solutions where the connection of the
production blocks is realized in parallel with the HVDC link in Italy-Tunisia, or the two
projects being integrated as a single multipole HVDC link.
TMA Corsica-Sardinia, similarly to Sicily, offers large offshore floating wind energy
potential and potential for onshore technologies on the nearby islands. These offshore
resources could be connected to Italy, but it is possible to consider connecting it to an
HVDC interconnection between northern Italy and Tunisia in parallel with the connection
of the production blocks or integrated it as a single multipole HVDC link.
Task 3 analysed possible grid concepts for all of these technology production blocks. All require
further analysis to clearly understand their potentials and cost-effectiveness, including with
additional novel technologies (e.g., floating PV, P2G).
For smaller scale, onshore and close-to-shore projects (not identified within the 10 TMAs but
potentially adding value to local RES generation), introduction of MUPs could help overcome
strong opposition from local stakeholders.
This analysis confirms that most of the RES offshore potential could be unlocked around 2030
and afterward. Therefore, this study recommends starting long-term planning today and
considering 2035 and 2040 as additional important time horizons for further analysis.
Floating offshore wind offers the largest technical potential in the region due to wind
speed and water depth. Additional analysis is recommended to understand the detailed
potential of this energy source, its potential impact on the environment, and potential
interference with other economic activities in the sea.
Bottom-fixed offshore wind is the most mature offshore energy technology, offering
relatively low LCOE. Some bottom-fixed offshore wind potential exists around the Greek
and Croatian islands and in the Gulf of Venice. These may require further analysis, as
this technology could become the first one to contribute to a substantial growth of
offshore energy in the region.
Wave and tidal have relatively low economic potential in the Mediterranean region
compared with offshore wind. They are relatively immature technologies and require
further support for technological development. On the other hand, they do not cause the
visual impact of wind power, and they could be further developed and considered for
smaller applications closer to islands and mainland shores.
Onshore vRES potential in islands—in islands within the identified TMAs and with
relatively mature onshore wind and PV in particular (given the vast solar potential in the
region)—should be further explored for both inhabited and non-inhabited islands. This
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
For onshore wind projects, grid interconnectivity may become an important issue since wind
sites tend to be located further away from the grid and detailed, localisation-specific analyses
need to be undertaken. Since the current analysis did not include any P2G options, extending
the overall system optimisation analysis and exploring gas grid applicability for green hydrogen
generation and transmission is recommended to optimise the use of available RES potential.
This analysis is important to ensuring cost-efficient grid development to integrate the large
amount of offshore RES to demand centres.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
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Excluding transmission costs, European bottom-fixed offshore wind capital costs are expected to
drop to under 2,000 $/kW towards 2030 and to about 1,500 $/kW in 2040 (IEA, 2019). These
costs are in line with the assumptions taken in the LCOE assessment (Energinet.dk, 2018) and
represent the lower bound of installation costs in IRENA’s Future of Wind report, which range from
1,700-3,200 $/kW in 2030 and 1,400-2800 €/kW in 2050 (Irena, 2019b). For floating offshore
wind, this study assumed that by 2050 this technology will converge to cost levels similar to those
of bottom-fixed offshore technology. Given the lack of data for 2050 projections, bottom-fixed
offshore wind CAPEX levels are assumed to be the best estimate available.
For onshore wind, the CAPEX levels assumed according to Table A-1 also fall in the range given in
IRENA’s Future of Wind report, 800-1,350 $/kW in 2030 and 650-1,000 $/kW in 2050 (Irena,
2019b) and in the ASSET study, 988 €/kW in 2030 and 782 €/kW in 2050 (ASSET, 2018).
Guidehouse’s CAPEX assumptions for solar technologies in 2030 and 2050 (Vartiainen, 2019) are
also in the order of magnitude of IRENA’s Future of Solar PV report: 340-834 $/kW in 2030 and of
165-481 $/kW in 2050 (Irena, 2019a). CAPEX levels in the ASSET study show higher solar PV
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overnight investment costs: 627 €/kW in 2030 and 407 €/kW in 2050 for utility-scale solar PV with
a very high potential and 930 €/kW in 2030 and 610 €/kW in 2050 for small-scale rooftop systems
(ASSET, 2018). However, the ASSET study dates from 2018, and given the rapid cost reductions
that solar PV technology is experiencing, it seems realistic to think that 2019 sources incorporate
more updated cost reductions that have a higher impact on overall capital cost projections.
For wave and tidal CAPEX values, this study’s best estimate is based on an international study
from Ocean Energy Systems and IEA (OES & IEA, 2015), a comprehensive technology study based
on different international projects (e.g., SI Ocean, DTOcean, EquiMar, the Danish LCOE Calculation
Tool, Carbon Trust, and US Department of Energy).
Bottom-fixed offshore wind OPEX in 2030 and 2050: Energinet.dk, 2018. Note on technology
costs for offshore wind farms and the background for updating CAPEX and OPEX exists in the
technology catalogue datasheets. CAPEX and OPEX cost values are assumed for a water depth of
up to 38 m and a distance to shore of 22 km. LCOE values given include grid connection cost.
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Analyser/havvindsnotat_translation_eng_final.pdf.
Floating offshore wind OPEX in 2030 and onshore wind OPEX in 2030 and 2050: Portugal's Final
Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030 (PNEC 2030), 2019.
http://www.dgeg.gov.pt/.
Floating offshore wind OPEX in 2050: Given the lack of data, this study assumes floating offshore
wind converges to bottom-fixed offshore wind cost levels in 2050.
Wave & tidal OPEX in 2030 and 2050: OES & IEA, 2015. International Levelized Cost of Energy
for Ocean energy Technologies, page 6.
https://testahemsidaz2.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/cost-of-energy-for-ocean-energy-
technologies-may-2015.pdf.
Utility solar PV OPEX in 2030 and 2050: Vartiainen et al., 2019. Impact of weighted average cost
of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility‐scale PV LCOE included.
Cost figures are given for utility-scale solar PV in European countries. LCOE ranges represent the
cost level with a nominal WACC of 7% for three different locations in France, Italy, and Spain as
described in Figure 9 of the report. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/pip.3189.
Rooftop solar PV OPEX in 2030 and 2050: Based on the NREL technology database (NREL,
2019b), this study assumes rooftop OPEX levels in 2030 as an average of 6.5 k€/MW/year and
10 k€/MW/year and as an average of 4 k€/MW/year and 8 k€/MW/year in 2050.
Similarly, fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs assumed are in line with other O&M costs
gathered from well-known studies. IEA reports O&M cost levels for bottom-fixed offshore wind of
around 60 $/kW in 2030 and 50 $/kW in 2040 (IEA, 2019). The ASSET study projects rather
aggressive fixed O&M cost levels for very remote offshore wind, 43 €/kW in 2030 and 39 €/kW in
2050 (ASSET, 2018). For floating offshore wind, given the lack of public data on 2050 cost
projections, this study assumes similar fixed O&M levels for bottom-fixed offshore wind in 2050.
According to the ASSET study, utility-scale solar PV fixed O&M costs amount to 13.5 €/kW in 2030
and 10.8 €/kW in 2050. Small-scale rooftop solar PV O&M costs amount to 17 €/kW in 2030 and
13 €/kW in 2050 (ASSET, 2018). In a similar way as the CAPEX values, the 2019 assumptions
taken might be incorporating more updated and advanced cost reduction projections compared to
the 2018 ASSET study. For onshore wind, 2019 assumptions taken for fixed O&M remain on the
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higher side compared to ASSET fixed O&M costs, which amount to around 21 €/kW in 2030 and 20
€/kW in 2050.
Similarly for CAPEX levels, for wave and tidal OPEX values, this study bases our best estimate on a
report by the OES and IEA (OES & IEA, 2015), which is based on a series of different international
sources and projects.
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Apollo’s intuitive interfaces allow simulations where it easily varies inputs to create, refine, and
analyse different scenarios. Graphic visualization is key to interpreting results. The results of an
Apollo model run are presented in a series of automatically generated Excel reports for a number
of different themes. All reports contain interactive charts and graphs for an easy interpretation of
the simulation results. Reports that generated by Apollo include:
Dashboard Analyzer: this is Apollo’s main report for short- and medium-term planning.
It visualizes a wide range of outputs: weekly prices, weekly price structures, hydro
generation, reservoir levels, and generation by week, generation in week, trade by week,
and trade in week.
(Source: SWECO)
Scenario Analyzer: An overview report that summarizes the operation of the system
from an annual and weekly aggregate perspective, showing generation, price, and trade
patterns.
Price Analyzer: A detailed report that provides hourly price structures in different price
zones and price differences across scenarios.
Economic Analyzer: An overview report that looks at profitability of different generation
technologies and welfare effects of various policies as defined in the input scenarios. The
report includes a scenario overview, various output data tables, CO2 emissions, and a
hydro analyser.
Apollo is used for both short-term and long-term planning regularly to assess the longer-term
effects of development in the Swedish and European electricity markets. Apollo's inclusion of most
European countries and bidding zones is especially important in longer-term planning as Europe
moves towards a single market. Typical uses for Apollo include scenario analysis, price volatility
analysis following the integration of large shares of electricity generation from RES, interconnector
profitability analysis, interconnector welfare analysis, and investment profitability, including
income stream per technology. Apollo’s hourly resolution provides additional insight into the value
of flexibility, particularly in electricity systems with high penetrations of variable technologies.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
For short-term-planning, Apollo is typically used to focus on one region and look at price
forecasting, sensitivity studies including plant or interconnector outages, wet and dry year
sensitivities, cold winters, and financial risk calculations. Users can choose the week of the year to
start model simulations and are able to use near-term forecasts of most inputs to get a closer view
of what lies in store.
Apollo optimizes the annual system cost for a defined scenario. Apollo is not an energy investment
model, and the above input parameters are defined by the user for each modelled scenario and
year. As a basis for simulations of future power systems, input parameters are defined for a
reference scenario maintained through Sweco’s continuous scenario work updates. The reference
scenario is based 2020 actuals and Sweco assumptions of the development of new capacity
installations and demand evolution. Production capacity is based on an aggregation of existing
production facilities, known plans for new capacity, and estimated phase out and potential renewal
of existing capacity. Additional new capacity is based on current trends, national targets, and
Sweco assessments of the development of specific RES technologies. Transmission capacities are
based on current capacities and planned projects in TYNDP 2018. Additional transfer capacities
until 2050 have been added based on the TYNDP Identification of System Needs (IoSN) for 2040 in
TYNDP 2018 and through Sweco’s identification of required capacities in the iterative modelling
process.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
(Source: SWECO)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table B-2: Assumed net transmission capacity between bidding zones in 2030
and 2050 (import)
Sum of Transmission Capacity [MW] Column Labels
Row Labels MedOffshore_NECP_2030 MedOffshore_Ambitious_2030 MedOffshore_NECP_2050 MedOffshore_Ambitious_2050
Portugal 4200 4200 5200 5200
Spain 4200 4200 5200 5200
Spain 13000 13000 17000 17000
Portugal 3500 3500 4200 4200
Exogenous 1200 1200 1200 1200
France 8300 8300 11600 11600
France 28750 28750 37750 37750
Belgium 4150 4150 4750 4750
Spain 8100 8100 11800 11800
Germany 4800 4800 7600 7600
Ireland 700 700 1200 1200
Switzerland 3200 3200 3200 3200
UK 7800 7800 9200 9200
IT-NO 11040 11040 18040 18040
Austria 1005 1005 4005 4005
IT-CN 2150 2150 4150 4150
Slovenia 1945 1945 2945 2945
Switzerland 5940 5940 6940 6940
IT-CN 8750 8750 8750 8750
IT-NO 4150 4150 4150 4150
IT-CS 4200 4200 4200 4200
IT-SA 400 400 400 400
IT-CS 14350 14350 14350 14350
Exogenous 3200 3200 3200 3200
IT-CN 2750 2750 2750 2750
IT-SU 6500 6500 6500 6500
IT-SA 900 900 900 900
IT-SI 1000 1000 1000 1000
IT-SU 12700 12700 12700 12700
IT-CS 11000 11000 11000 11000
IT-SI 1200 1200 1200 1200
Greece 500 500 500 500
IT-SA 1100 1100 1100 1100
IT-CN 400 400 400 400
IT-CS 700 700 700 700
IT-SI 2900 2900 2900 2900
Exogenous 600 600 600 600
IT-CS 1000 1000 1000 1000
IT-SU 1100 1100 1100 1100
Malta 200 200 200 200
Slovenia 7475 7475 10275 10275
Austria 1200 1200 2500 2500
Hungary 2565 2565 2565 2565
IT-NO 1710 1710 2710 2710
Croatia 2000 2000 2500 2500
Croatia 5844 5844 6344 6344
Exogenous 2644 2644 2644 2644
Hungary 1200 1200 1200 1200
Slovenia 2000 2000 2500 2500
Greece 3098 3098 6698 6698
Bulgaria 1198 1198 3098 3098
Exogenous 400 400 400 400
IT-SU 500 500 1200 1200
Cyprus 1000 1000 2000 2000
Cyprus 1000 1000 4000 4000
Exogenous 1000 1000 2000 2000
Greece 0 0 2000 2000
Malta 200 200 200 200
IT-SI 200 200 200 200
(Source: SWECO)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
(Source: SWECO)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
HVDC:
Offshore platform
Offshore converter station, 320 or 500 kV
Sea cable, 320 or 500 kV
Land cable, 320 or 500 kV
Onshore converter station, 320 or 500 kV
HVAC:
Offshore platform
Offshore 220 kV switchgear
Offshore transformer to 220 kV
Sea cable, 220 kV
Land cable, 220 kV
Onshore 220 kV switchgear
Onshore 220/400 kV transformer
CAPEX figures for the above components were mainly retrieved from Study of the Benefits of a
Meshed Offshore Grid in Northern Seas Region – Final Report (Cole, Martinot, Rapoport,
Papaefthymiou, & Gori, 2014), assumed to be relevant for 2019, and summarized in Table C-1.
Reactive compensation was assumed as an additional per-length cost for the HVAC alternative and
assumed to include filtering needs.
OPEX was calculated as a percentage of CAPEX, with assumed values for different categories of
components listed in Table C-1. Additional assumptions and cost figures include the following:
Resistive losses for each connection were calculated based on the production time series
for each technology and TMA.
The choice of technology for each connection (HVAC or HVDC) was made based on the
total cost over 25 years with an assumed cost for losses of 50 €/MWh.
The capacities for the different dimensions of cables were calculated based on
dimensioning criteria of 1.0 A/mm2 for aluminium conductors and 1.2 A/mm2 for copper
conductors.
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Platforms 1.00
Remarks
Assumed value, not in (Cole, Martinot, Rapoport, Papaefthymiou, & Gori, 2014). Added to limit the step
2
increase of cost when moving to a bigger cable dimension than 300 mm2.
(Source: SWECO)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
Table D-1: Barriers and implementation challenges for offshore grid and offshore renewable development with detailed
description and ranking
Barrier Description and rationale barrier Rank
Offshore grid and renewable generation technologies
1 Mature offshore What: The geographical and climatological conditions (water depth, bottom morphology, minimal distances Strong
renewable energy and from shore, availability of current speeds, lack of tides, etc.) of the Mediterranean require specific renewable
grid technologies energy technologies, such as floating wind turbines due to limited areas with shallow water depth.116,117
suitable for the Why: There is a need for mature technologies, adapted to the environmental characteristics of the
development of an Mediterranean. Sufficient maturity levels of technologies suitable for offshore energy development in the
offshore grid in the Mediterranean are required to exploit available RES potential, such as floating offshore wind or HVDC grid
Mediterranean components. Currently, technologies such as floating offshore wind are not yet fully mature. 117
2 Coordinated offshore What: For an offshore grid system to function in accordance with operational standards coordination of grid Strong
grid technologies and technologies in the region is important. This includes interoperability of protection systems in HVDC
interoperability of systems.118
assets Why: Uncoordinated technologies could result in unsafe operation. For example, protection systems from
different vendors should be able to connect and communicate with each other (Interoperability).118 This is a
key barrier of meshed offshore grids currently investigated under the PROMOTioN project for the Northern
Seas.Error! Bookmark not defined.
3 Availability of supply What: Developing and constructing an offshore grid and large-scale offshore renewables requires a large Strong
chain for components, supply chain of raw materials, manufacturing of technical components, skilled personnel, and specialised
labour force, and infrastructure, such as specialised ships and ground transportation.117
infrastructure to Why: Currently, there is limited experience with and manufacturing of offshore renewable and grid
develop offshore components in the Mediterranean Sea region. Supply chains and capacity must build up to ensure a timely
renewables and grid development of offshore renewables and grid infrastructure.119
infrastructure
116
(Soukissian et al., 2017)
117
(WindEurope, 2019b)
118
(PROMOTioN, 2017a)
119
(Interreg, 2017)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
120
Databases that already exist are https://www.emodnet-humanactivities.eu/view-data.php and http://www.msp-supreme.eu/files/c-1-3-2-and-c-1-3-3-data-and-
tools.pdf.
121
European TSO cooperation already occurs through ENTSO-E and regional TSO cooperation through Med-TSO: https://www.med-
tso.com/mission.aspx?f=&title=About+Med-TSO; cooperation on a regional Mediterranean level also takes place through MedReg, for example: http://www.medreg-
regulators.org/Aboutus/Members.aspx
122
Med-TSO, 2020. Deliverable 5.2 “Key Performance Indicators of the regional electricity system”. https://www.med-
tso.com/publications/Deliverable_5.2_Key_performance_indicators_of_the_regional_electricity_system.pdf
123
(European MSP Platform, 2018b)
124
(Soukissian et al., 2017)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
125
(Soukissian et al., 2017)
126
(Soukissian et al., 2017)
127
(ENTSO-E, 2018d)
128
Mediterranean Project I and Mediterranean Project II. https://www.med-tso.com/mediterranean2.aspx?f=
129
(PROMOTioN, 2017a)
130
(PROMOTioN, 2017a)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
131
(ENTSO-E, 2018a)
132
(Navigant, 2019; WindEurope, 2019d)
133
(RES Legal, 2020)
134
Note that shared projects between two countries with different grid delivery models is not uncommon as, for example, TenneT and Vattenfall are investigating the
feasibility of an interconnector between a TenneT offshore substation in the Netherlands and a Vattenfall offshore substation in the UK: TenneT, 2018. TenneT and
Vattenfall to study potential Dutch and UK offshore wind farm connections. https://www.tennet.eu/news/detail/tennet-and-vattenfall-to-study-potential-dutch-and-uk-
offshore-wind-farm-connections/
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
135
(RES Legal, 2020)
136
(WindEurope, 2019d)
137
(ENTSO-E, 2018c)
138
(PROMOTioN, 2017a), (PROMOTioN, 2019c)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
2 Aligned requirements What: Grid services include frequency control, reactive power, and voltage control, among others. Grid Moderate
and standards for RES services are determined by the Network Code on Requirements for Grid Connection Applicable to All
grid services Generators (RfG) (art. 21)48,141,142. For HVDC, this is specifically addressed in the HVDC Network Code (art.
37 and 38) from ENTSO-E (2014), which was delivered to ACER, who recommended it for adoption by the
EC. Some ancillary services are to be provided by offshore renewables following national grid codes.
Why: National grid codes for ancillary service provisions for offshore renewables can differ. When offshore
renewables are connected to multiple countries in an offshore grid, these rules should be aligned to ensure
compliance of renewable operation with the grid codes of the different connected countries.
139
(ACER, 2020)
140
(PwC, 2016)
141
(3E and Project Partners, 2015)
142
(PwC, 2016)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
143
(RES Legal, 2020)
144
(CEER, 2018)
145
Communication from the Commission, 2014. Guidelines on State aid for environmental protection and energy 2014-2020 (2014/C 200/01). https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52014XC0628%2801%29
146
(PROMOTioN, 2019c; PROMOTioN, 2019a)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
147
(3E and Project Partners, 2015)
148
(RES Legal, 2020)
149
(Emissions-EUETS, 2020)
150
(RES Legal, 2020)
151
(PwC, 2016)
152
(PwC, 2016)
153
(PROMOTioN, 2019c)
154
(ENTSO-E, 2018b)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
155
(PwC, 2016)
156
(3E and Project Partners, 2015)
157
(3E and Project Partners, 2015)
158
(European MSP Platform, 2018a)
159
(European Commission, 2014)
160
(European Commission, 2020a)
161
(European MSP Platform, 2018a)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
162
(WindEurope, 2019c; Simas, 2015); (PwC, 2016)
163
(WindEurope, 2019d); (PwC, 2016)
164
(Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017)
165
(Navigant & E3 Modelling, 2017)
166
(RES Legal, 2020)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
167
(PROMOTioN, 2017a)
168
(WindEurope, 2019d); (PwC, 2016)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
169
(ENTSO-E, 2018d)
170
(INEA, 2020; European Commission, 2020b; ACER, 2020)
171
(WindEurope, 2019d)
172
(PROMOTioN, 2019a)
173
MedTSO, 2020. Med-TSO defines preliminary criteria for the implementation of a Cross Border Cost Allocation process. Deliverable 4.2 “Procedure for Cross Border Cost
Allocation Application”. https://www.med-tso.com/publications/Deliverable_4.2_Procedure_for_Cross_Border_Cost_Allocation_Application.pdf
174
(WindEurope, 2019d)
175
Around 10%: https://www.acer.europa.eu/Official_documents/Acts_of_the_Agency/Recommendations/ACER%20Recommendation%2007-2013.pdf; PROMOTioN
176
(PROMOTioN, 2019c)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
177
PROMOTioN project, https://www.promotion-offshore.net/
178
PROMOTioN project, https://www.promotion-offshore.net/
179
(WindEurope, 2019d)
180
(Intelligent Energy Europe, 2016); (WindEurope, 2019d)
181
(PROMOTioN, 2019a)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
182
(Interreg, 2017)
183
(PROMOTioN, 2017b)
184
(Interreg, 2019)
185
(Interreg, 2019)
186
TERNA, 2019. TERNA: new Italy-Montenegro interconnection infrastructure under way. https://www.terna.it/en/media/press-releases/detail/new-Italy-Montenegro-
interconnection-infrastructure-under-way
187
RTE, 2020. Tous nos projects. https://www.rte-france.com/projets/nos-projets
188
RTE, 2020. Tous nos projects. https://www.rte-france.com/projets/nos-projets
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
189
(European Commission, 2020c)
190
(Birdlife International., 2009)
191
(PROMOTioN, 2019b; Renewables Grid Initiative, 2020; Arvesen et al., 2014)
Study on the offshore grid potential in the Mediterranean region
(Source: Guidehouse)
The Advisory Board verified this study’s approach and provided a high-level overview of the
draft results of the study. Three webinars were held to discuss the work progress:
Webinar 1: Discussing the detailed approach to work before finalizing the inception
report
Webinar 2: Initial conclusions from Tasks 1 and 2 and verification of the approach for
Tasks 3 and 4
Webinar 3: Draft recommendations
The Advisory Board members will also participate as panellists in the final conference.
(Source: Guidehouse)
84 Yang Li Elia
(Source: Guidehouse)
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doi : 10.2833/742284