Tesla 2023 Oct Diy
Tesla 2023 Oct Diy
Tesla 2023 Oct Diy
Risk Levers
What cost of capital do you want to give Tesla initially? D6: Direct Input
If direct input, enter the cost of capital 10.15%
What is the probability of failure E1: No chance
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tesla-november-2023-story-twists-turns-value-aswath-damodaran-lvuec?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&ut
Link do article
Expected Auto Revenues in 2033 (in $ mi)l $ Revenues in 2033
A1: $100 billion (BMW-like) $100
A2: $150 billion (Ford & Honda-like) $150
A3: $200 billion (Daimler-like) $200
A4: $300 billion (Toyota & VW -like) $300
A5: $500 billion (20% auto market share) $500
A6: Direct Input (Enter % growth rate) $600
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies generally see their risk levels appr
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 9.00% Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 1 15% But there are significant exceptions among companies
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 0% Tough to estimate but a key input.
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair 50% This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will l
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have a money losing compa
Do you want to override this assumption = No Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into yea $250.00 An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even after
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "im
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity 1.00% This can be negative, if you feel the company will decl
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral ass
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistru $140,000.00 Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to addi
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is t 15% Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being a
run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
k against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
w ( in consistent units)
ze R&D, you have to input the numbers into the R&D worksheet.
ases, please enter your lease commitments in the lease worksheet below and I will convert to debt
Computed numbers: Here is what your company's numbers look like, relative to industry.
If you are not working in US dollars, you should add the inflation differential to the industry averages.
Company Industry (US datIndustry (Global data)
Revenue growth in the most recent year = 75.77% 28.06% 8.21%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most recent year = 15.11% 6.43% 6.58%
Sales to capital ratio in most recent year = 2.04 0.95 0.92
Return on invested capital in most recent year= 27.90% 6.46% 5.34%
Standard deviation in stock prices = 52.61% 33.90%
Cost of capital = 10.15% 10.67%
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if you want)
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth = $ 525,000
Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operating ma $ 96,100
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capital 29.59%
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
mpanies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
you feel the company will decline (and disappear) after growth is done. If you let it exceed the risk free rate, you are on your own in uncharted territory.
due and that cash is a neutral asset.
eign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
ble making debt payments.
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 2.67 2.67
Invested capital $ 40,357 $ 53,191 $ 65,548 $ 77,522 $ 92,048 $ 110,242 $ 134,582 $ 158,922
ROIC 27.90% 34.79% 35.97% 35.90% 36.21% 37.64% 35.72% 34.03%
8 9 10 Terminal year
Check these revenues against
11.15% 10.03% 9.12% 5.00% a. Overall market size
### ### ### ### b. Largest companies in this market
$65,181.40 $72,590.70 $80,000.00 $84,000.00
$31,427.73 $35,713.87 $40,000.00 $42,000.00
$57,142.86 $68,571.43 $80,000.00 $84,000.00
### ### ### ###
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% This is is how much your operating income
grew over the ten-year period.
21.81% 21.81% 21.81% 21.81%
25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
$73,212.39 $82,368.19 $91,524.00 $96,100.20 $ 83,689.00
18.71% 21.86% 25.00% 25.00%
$59,512.44 $64,365.55 $68,643.00 $72,075.15
$24,340.39 $24,340.39 $24,340.39 $24,025.05 $ 215,611.37 This is how much capital you
invested over the ten year period.
$35,172.05 $40,025.16 $44,302.61 $48,050.10
$ - $ - $ - $ -
Operating ma
12.94% 12.94% 12.18% 13.07%
Tax rate 9.28% 9.28% 25.00% 25.00%
FCFF
$5,670
$11,223
These are the numbers that come from your
$15,857 assumptions. The revenues over time reflect
$18,805 your revenue growth, the operating margins
$23,305 evolve towards your target margin and your
tax rate will change, if you have set it to. The
$23,739 reinvestment is estimated using the sales to
$29,743 capital ratio for the first 10 years and based
$35,172 on a reinvestment rate in stable growth (g/
ROC).
$40,025
$44,303
$48,050
$197.00
VALUATION DIAGNOSTICS
Invested capital at start of valuation $ 40,357.20
Invested capital at end of valuation $ 231,943.52
Change in invested capital over 10 years $ 191,586.32
Change in EBIT*(1–t) (after-tax operating income) over 10 yea $ 79,112.80
Marginal ROIC over 10 years 41.29%
ROIC at end of valuation 29.59%
Average WACC over the 10 years (compounded) 9.81%
Your calculated value as a percent of current price 91.15%
d1 = 2.6805999
N (d1) = 0.9963255
d2 = 1.6918633
N (d2) = 0.954664
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 4,393.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 128.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Actual rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 4.000%
If actual rating, input the rating Ba2/BB
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 1
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 8.13%
Tax Rate = 25%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = $3,803.84
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 0.94
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expens 5 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $3,685.00 The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 3075.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 2593.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 1491.00
-4 1390.00
-5 1460.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 3685.00 1.00 3685.00
-1 3075.00 0.80 2460.00 $ 615.00
-2 2593.00 0.60 1555.80 $ 518.60
-3 1491.00 0.40 596.40 $ 298.20
-4 1390.00 0.20 278.00 $ 278.00
-5 1460.00 0.00 0.00 $ 292.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = $8,575.20 $2,001.80
Adjustment to Operating Income = $1,683.20 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $421
stments to operating income, net
he amortization period
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 8.13% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 e 2 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 209.20 $ 193.47
2 $ 258.40 $ 221.00
3 $ 228.70 $ 180.90
4 $ 182.30 $ 133.35
5 $ 153.50 $ 103.84
6 and beyon $ 238.95 $ 287.75 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $1,120.32
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 160.05 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $115.60 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $1,120.32 ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $160.05
Mature Market ERP + 4.96% Updated January 1, 2023
Changing this number will update all your country equity risk premiums.
Average: CRP
Inputs for synthetic rating estimation
Please read the special cases worksheet (see below) before you use this spreadsheet.
Before you use this spreadsheet, make sure that the iteration box (under calculation options in excel) is checked.
Enter the type of firm = 1
Enter current Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) = ### (Add back only long term interest expense for financial firms)
Enter current interest expenses = $128.00 (Use only long term interest expense for financial firms)
Enter long term risk free rate = 5.00%
Output
Interest coverage ratio = 83.81
Estimated Bond Rating = Aaa/AAA Note: If you get REF! All over the place, set the operating lease commitment qu
Estimated Company Default Spread 0.69% to No, and then reset it to Yes. It should work.
Estimated County Default Spread (if 0.00%
Estimated Cost of Debt = 5.69%
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 20.00%
0.2 0.649999 Caa/CCC 17.50%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 15.78%
0.8 1.249999 C2/C 11.57%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 7.37%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 5.26%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 4.55%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 3.13%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 2.42%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 2.00%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.62%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 1.42%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 1.23%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.85%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.69%
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00