Charlottetown Region Housing Needs Assessment Report Final (2022)

Charlottetown Region Growth
Study and Housing Needs

Assessment
Housing Needs Assessment Report
Prepared for
City of Charlottetown, Town of Cornwall and Town of Stratford
May 16, 2022
102-40 Highfield Park Drive, Dartmouth, NS B3A 0A3 0

60
Charlottetown Region Growth

Study and Housing Needs
Assessment
Housing Needs Assessment Report
May 16, 2022
The housing market in Canada and the

Capital Region is subject to ongoing and
sometimes rapid change. Data and
information in this report is the latest
available at the time the report was
prepared. Likewise, opinions expressed
are current to the period immediately
before completion of the document in
May 2022 and may not be entirely
reflective of the current economic
environment and the challenges faced in
the housing/rental market. Readers are
encouraged to consider changes that
have taken place and possibilities that
have emerged since the completion of
this assessment.
Prepared for:
City of Charlottetown, Town of

Cornwall and Town of Stratford
Prepared by:
Stantec Consulting Ltd.

in association with
SJ Murphy Planning and Consulting and
Fathom Studio
CHARLOTTETOWN REGION GROWTH STUDY AND HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... I
1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1
2.0 HOUSING ISSUES ........................................................................................................... 5

2.1 HOUSING TRENDS .......................................................................................................... 5
2.2 HOUSING PRICES ......................................................................................................... 14
2.3 HOUSING RENTS .......................................................................................................... 18
2.4 ALTERNATIVE HOUSING .............................................................................................. 25
2.5 HOUSING CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES .............................................................. 28
3.0 ECONOMIC PROFILE .................................................................................................... 41

3.1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT .................................................................................... 41
3.2 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ............................................................................................. 42
3.3 EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................... 47
3.4 OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................... 50
4.0 CONSULTATION SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 51

4.1 MUNICIPAL PLANNERS ................................................................................................ 51
4.1.1 City of Charlottetown ..................................................................................... 51
4.1.2 Town of Cornwall ........................................................................................... 52
4.1.3 Town of Stratford ........................................................................................... 53
4.2 STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS ...................................................................................... 54
4.3 FOCUS GROUP INTERVIEWS ...................................................................................... 57
4.3.1 AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADVOCATES ...................................................... 58
4.3.2 DEVELOPERS AND BUILDERS ................................................................... 59
4.3.3 COMMUNITY REPRESENTATIVES ............................................................. 60
4.4 OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................... 60
5.0 POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS ...................................................................... 63

5.1 GEOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................... 63
5.2 PROJECTION METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 65
5.3 CENSUS COUNTS AND ESTIMATES ........................................................................... 67
5.4 COMPONENTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ............................................................ 69
5.4.1 Fertility ........................................................................................................... 69
5.4.2 Mortality ......................................................................................................... 71
5.4.3 Natural Increase ............................................................................................ 72
5.4.4 Migration ........................................................................................................ 72
5.5 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION ....................................................................................... 77
5.6 HOUSING TRENDS ........................................................................................................ 78
5.6.1 National Comparison ..................................................................................... 78
5.6.2 Changes in Structural Type and Tenure ........................................................ 83
5.6.3 Recent Change in the Capital Region ........................................................... 84
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Table of Contents
6.0 FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSING....................................................................... 87

6.1 POPULATION AND DWELLING UNIT ESTIMATES ...................................................... 87
6.1.1 Population Estimates ..................................................................................... 88
6.1.2 Dwelling Unit Estimates ................................................................................. 91
6.2 SCENARIO 1 .................................................................................................................. 92
6.3 SCENARIO 2 ................................................................................................................ 100
6.4 SCENARIO 3 ................................................................................................................ 106
6.5 SCENARIO INSIGHTS ................................................................................................. 111
6.6 LAND SUPPLY ............................................................................................................. 112
6.7 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS ............................................................................... 122
7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................ 124

7.1 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................ 127
7.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................. 133
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 Housing and Household Profiles, Charlottetown CA, PEI and Canada, 2001
and 2016 ........................................................................................................................ 8
Table 2-2 Housing Tenure and Affordability, Capital Region Municipalities, Capital
Region, PEI and Canada, 2001-2016 .......................................................................... 10
Table 2-3 Changes in Average House Prices, Canada and Provinces, 2019-2020 ................. 14
Table 2-4 Vacancy Rates and Rents, Two-bedroom Apartments, Canada, Provinces
and Select Urban Centres, October 2019 and October 2020 ...................................... 21
Table 2-5 Rental Statistics Involving Applications for Eviction, PEI, 2017-2020 ...................... 24
Table 2-6 Public Housing, Canada and Provinces, 2016 ......................................................... 26
Table 2-7 Collective Dwellings and Occupants, Canada and Provinces, 2016 ........................ 27
Table 2-8 Homeless Point in Time Counts, Charlottetown and Summerside, 2016,
2018, and 2021 ............................................................................................................ 29
Table 2-9 Housing Co-ops, Canada ......................................................................................... 37
Table 5-1 Commuter Flows, Queens County, 2016 ................................................................. 65
Table 5-2 Census of Canada Coverage, Canada and Provinces, 2016 .................................. 68
Table 5-3 Indicators Related to Moving, PEI and Canada, 2018 ............................................. 73
Table 5-4 Five-year Mobility Status, Queens County and Sub-areas to 2016 ......................... 74
Table 5-5 Immigration, Queens County and Sub-areas to 2016 .............................................. 75
Table 5-6 Population Change, Queens and Capital Region, 2001-2021 ................................. 77
Table 5-7 Primary Household Maintainers by Age Group and Structural Type, Capital
Region, 2016 ................................................................................................................ 79
Table 5-8 Housing by Structural Type, Capital Region, 2001-2016 ......................................... 83
Table 6-1 Land Area by Zone with Estimated Potential Residential Units,
Charlottetown, 2021 ................................................................................................... 113
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Table 6-2 Land Area by Zone with Estimated Potential Residential Units, Cornwall and
Stratford, 2021............................................................................................................ 114
Table 6-3 Permitted Dwelling Units by Broad Structural Type, Charlottetown, Cornwall
and Stratford, 2021 ..................................................................................................... 118
Table 6-4 Estimated Potential Residential Units, Capital Region, 2021 ................................. 120
Table 6-5 Estimated Additional Affordable Units Required, Capital Region, Scenario 3,
2016-2041 .................................................................................................................. 123
Table 7-1 Conclusions and Recommendations, Concordance .............................................. 137
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Population Growth and Change, PEI, Queens and Capital Region, 1971-
2020 ............................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 2-2 Number of Urban Households in Core Housing Need, PEI Census
Agglomerations (CAs), 1991-2019 ............................................................................... 11
Figure 2-3 Average Scheduled Monthly Payments for New Mortgage Loans,
Charlottetown CA, PEI and Canada, Q2 2012-Q2 2021 .............................................. 13
Figure 2-4 Share of Businesses with Workers Working Remotely, Canada and Atlantic
Provinces, 2020............................................................................................................ 16
Figure 2-5 Percentage of Workers Working Some Scheduled (non-overtime) Hours at
Home by Income Category, Canada, 2016 .................................................................. 17
Figure 2-6 Rented Private Dwellings, Capitol Region, 2001-2016 ............................................ 18
Figure 2-7 Owned and Rented Dwelling Units by Structural Type, Capitol Region, 2016 ......... 19
Figure 2-8 Average Rents, Constant 2002$, PEI, 1990-2020 ................................................... 20
Figure 2-9 IRAC Approved Rent Increases and Average Actual Rent Increases, PEI,
2006-2021 .................................................................................................................... 22
Figure 2-10 Vacancy Rates, Charlottetown CA and Census Agglomerations with 50,000
or more Population, 2001-2019 .................................................................................... 23
Figure 2-11 Average Home Price (June) and Average Owner Household Income, PEI,
2012-2020 .................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 2-12 Average Rent and Average Renter Household Income, PEI, 2006-2020 ................ 31
Figure 3-1 Growth in GDP, Canada and PEI, 2001-2020 (Chained 2012$) .............................. 41
Figure 3-2 Industry by NAICS Code, PEI, 2011-2020 ............................................................... 43
Figure 3-3 Shift-Share Breakdown, PEI, 2011-2020 ................................................................. 44
Figure 3-4 Location Quotients, PEI and PEI CAs, 2020 ............................................................ 46
Figure 3-5 Shift-Share Breakdown, PEI CAs, 2011-2020 ......................................................... 48
Figure 3-6 Labour Force Participation, Unemployment and Employment (unadjusted),
Canada and PEI, 2001-2021 ........................................................................................ 49
Figure 5-1 Regional Subdivisions, Queens County, 2016 ......................................................... 64
Figure 5-2 Population Estimates and Census Counts, Queens County, 2001-2021 ................. 68
Figure 5-3 Births per 1,000 Women by Five-year Age Cohort, PEI, 2001-2019 ....................... 70
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Table of Contents
Figure 5-4 Mortality Rates, Males, Females, and Both Sexes, PEI, 2001-2019 ....................... 71
Figure 5-5 Natural Increase, PEI, 2001-2019 ............................................................................ 72
Figure 5-6 Immigration by Period and Origin, Queens County, 1981-2016 .............................. 76
Figure 5-7 Percentage Shares by Structural Type, Canada, Queens County, and
Capital Region Sub-areas, 2001-2016 ......................................................................... 80
Figure 5-8 Percentage Shares by Structural Type, Select Canadian Geographies, 2016 ........ 81
Figure 5-9 Percentage Shares by Structural Type, Comparable Census
Agglomerations, 2016 .................................................................................................. 82
Figure 5-10 Dwelling Units Approved by Structural Type, Charlottetown, Cornwall and
Stratford, Development Permit Data, 2011-2020 ......................................................... 85
Figure 5-11 Dwelling Units Approved by Structural Type, Capital Region, Development
Permit Data, 2011-2020 ............................................................................................... 86
Figure 6-1 Population Estimates, Capital Region and Queens County, 2001-2041 .................. 88
Figure 6-2 Five-year Net Migration Estimates, Queens County, Scenario 1, 2001-2016
and 2011-2016 ............................................................................................................. 90
Figure 6-3 Dwelling Unit Estimates, Queens County and the Capital Region, 2016-2041 ........ 92
Figure 6-4 Population by Age Group, Capital Region, Scenario 1, 2001-2041 ......................... 94
Figure 6-5 Population by Municipalities and Sub-areas, Queens County and Sub-areas,
Scenario 1, 2001-2041 ................................................................................................. 96
Figure 6-6 Dwelling Units by Structural Type, Capital Region, Scenario 1, 2016-2041 ............ 98
Figure 6-7 Dwelling Units, Queens County and Sub-Areas, Scenario 1, 2016-2041 ................ 99
Figure 6-8 Population by Age Group, Capital Region, Scenario 2, 2001-2041 ....................... 101
Scenario 2, 2001-2041 ............................................................................................... 102
Figure 6-10 Dwelling Units by Structural Type, Capital Region, Scenario 2, 2016-2041 .......... 104
Figure 6-11 Dwelling Units, Queens County and Sub-Areas, Scenario 2, 2016-2041 .............. 105
Figure 6-12 Population by Age Group, Capital Region, Scenario 3, 2001-2041 ....................... 107
Scenario 3, 2001-2041 ............................................................................................... 108
Figure 6-14 Dwelling Units by Structural Type, Capital Region, Scenario 3, 2016-2041 .......... 109
Figure 6-15 Dwelling Units, Queens County and Sub-Areas, Scenario 3, 2016-2041 .............. 110
Figure 6-16 Locations of Potential Additional Residential Dwellings Units, Capital
Region, 2021 .............................................................................................................. 115
Figure 7-1 Annual Change in Average Asking Rents for All Property Types by Month on
Rentals.ca, October 2019-February 2022 .................................................................. 126
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Table of Contents
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A Sub-area Population Projections, Migration Estimates and Housing

Projections – Scenario 1
APPENDIX B Sub-area Population Projections, Migration Estimates and Housing

APPENDIX C Sub-area Population Projections, Migration Estimates and Housing

v
Executive Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
As the home of a provincial capital with three strong growing municipalities, attractive and accessible
exurban areas, the charm of its Island location, and many other exceptional attributes, the Charlottetown
region is characterized by a variety of features that both exacerbate its current housing issues and
provide opportunities for resolution. This report summarizes the results of project work carried out in two
phases The first, called the Growth Study, developed an overview of housing issues nationally and in PEI;
the state of the PEI economy; and population and housing estimates presented in three scenarios. The
second, identified as the Housing Needs Assessment, incorporated the results of consultation work
carried out by the consulting team to obtain the views of housing stakeholders in the region. It also
assessed the supply of land available for residential development in the City of Charlottetown, and the
Towns of Cornwall and Stratford, and developed recommendations for responses to the region’s housing
challenges.
HOUSING ISSUES
The Charlottetown region is experiencing significant pressures on its housing market. House prices have
risen suddenly, and rental vacancy rates have fallen. The region has faced a wave of in-migration
stimulated by provincial policy and encouraged by heretofore inexpensive real estate and the good
fortune of Atlantic Canada in effectively handling the COVID-19 pandemic. While the Atlantic Provinces
have sought growth and it has brought many benefits, its influence on housing costs has created concern
with housing affordability and the challenge of managing and directing development.
ECONOMIC PROFILE
The economy of PEI has improved significantly over the past 20 years. It has, however, largely been
catching up with the balance of Canada. The structure of the Island economy is not especially favourable
to growth, although it is not a source of weakness either. PEI has generally had a higher rate of
unemployment and a lower rate of employment (i.e., labour force participation less unemployment)
relative to national levels. Only with the advent of COVID has the Island briefly coincided with national
levels for both rates. The short period of comparable employment and unemployment rates has already
ended, and the province appears to be returning to moderately lower levels of employment and higher
levels of unemployment. The Island’s recent demographic surge appears to have resulted from Provincial
government promotion and the attraction for international and domestic immigrants of lower living costs, a
draw that has been enhanced by the rise of remote work in response to the COVID pandemic.
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Executive Summary
CONSULTATION SUMMARY
To fully understand the housing issues that have arisen in the Charlottetown region, consulting team
members undertook three consultation initiatives: interviews with municipal planners working with our
client municipalities; similar interviews with a broader selection of stakeholders including representatives
of Provincial government departments, real estate professionals, and representatives of organizations
concerned with housing; and three focus groups with developers and builders, affordable housing
advocates and providers, and members of the public recruited by the consultants. Interview topics
included review of the population and housing estimates, exploration of leading housing concerns, and
prioritization of housing issues identified through our background research. Estimates were presented to
the focus groups for comment. Focus groups were then guided through a series of questions investigating
their views on housing issues, the issues they considered most important, and potential responses to
housing concerns.
POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS
The Capital Region is seeing significant shifts in its housing profile from single-detached housing to
attached housing and apartments. The share of dwelling units accounted for by apartments in multi-unit
structures has increased significantly and dwelling unit construction has accelerated in response to
increased demand. Comparison to regions across Canada suggests that while the Capital Region has
developed at a similar density to peer regions, further densification can be expected as population
continues to expand.
FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSING
Stantec developed population future estimates based on the trends reflected in Statistics Canada
population estimates for 2011, 2016, and 2021. All estimates of natural increase incorporate long-term
trends in births and deaths for PEI. Related migration estimates are developed for each relevant area
within Queen County based on past census periods. Our initial estimates are based on the five years
from 2011 to 2016; which was a period of solid growth for the Capital Region; our second reflects change
in the extended period from 2011 to 2021, combining a strong initial period of growth with the
unprecedented surge that has taken place since 2016; and the third and final period focuses on the very
strong growth experienced since 2016. Our estimates of dwelling units in the region were developed from
our population estimates. Dwelling unit profiles show the influence of differing age structure in the
population under each scenario based on household formation rates.
The three scenarios generated produced the following results for Queens County and the Capital Region
by the Horizon Year of 2041:
• Scenario 1, based on five years of strong growth in the region from 2011 to 2016, anticipates a
population of 108,640 in Queens County in 48,345 dwelling units with 66,186 people in 32,461
units in the Capital Region
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Executive Summary
• Scenario 2, reflecting the extended period from 2011 to 2021, expects 140,599 residents in
61,178 dwelling units in Queens and 85,701 in 41,217 units in the Capital Region
• Scenario 3, extending the very strong growth experienced since 2016, yields 189,642 residents
Queens in 80,759 dwelling units and 116,832 in 54,685 units the Capital Region.
We consider Scenario 2, which aligns well with predictions prepared by the Province of PEI Department
of Economics, Statistics and Federal Fiscal Relations, the most likely future; however, Scenario 3
provides the best test of the region’s capacity. Assessment of land supply and the potential number of
residential units required in Scenario 3 indicates that the Capital Region municipalities of Charlottetown,
Cornwall, and Stratford will be hard pressed by additional housing needs if the rate of growth experienced
from 2016 to 2021 continues. Bringing needed dwelling units online quickly in a manner that is acceptable
to established communities, however, requires the development of a framework for future growth.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Research and consultation highlighted a range of housing issues confronting the Capital Region. The
most prominent is clearly the supply of housing. All stakeholders agree that increased supply is required
to accommodate households in need and reduce upward pressure on home prices and rents. Other
concerns raised include the impact of short-term rentals, the need for new housing types, the
encouragement of denser residential development, better enforcement of rent controls, and increased
public and specialized housing.
Our recommendations are directed at our municipal clients who do not have the capacity or authority to
address all aspects of housing issues. Our leading recommendation is to create an Intergovernmental
Committee through which the Capital Region municipalities can collaborate with senior governments,
regional partners, and housing stakeholders to address housing concerns. A key initiative should be to
develop a regional growth strategy to locate residential development and ensure it is properly serviced
and supported by necessary municipal infrastructure. Another leading purpose should be to improve
housing data through consultation with senior government agencies and local initiatives. We also
recommend employing municipal planning tools to encourage increased density of development and
more inclusive housing solutions. We encourage the municipalities to support the Province to develop an
effective rental registry and to provide additional housing information and support housing production of
affordable and specialized housing units for populations in need.
iii
Introduction
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Housing is an economic bell weather, a key outlet for local entrepreneurship, and an important
employment generator. More significant, though, housing is generally viewed as a necessity by the public
and governments. It has, in fact, been recognized as a human right by the United Nations:
The States Parties to the present Covenant [on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights]
recognize the right of everyone to an adequate standard of living for himself and his
family, including adequate food, clothing and housing, and to the continuous
improvement of living conditions. The States Parties will take appropriate steps to ensure
the realization of this right, recognizing to this effect the essential importance of
international co-operation based on free consent. 1
Canada is a signatory to the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. In endorsing the Federal
Government’s declared intention to develop and implement a National Housing Strategy Act, 2 the
Canadian Human Rights Commission reinforced our national commitment and framed Canada’s current
challenge:
Adequate housing is a fundamental human right that is recognized in international law,

including the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, to which Canada is a
party. Yet the fact remains that 1.7 million people in Canada are living in homes that are
inadequate or unaffordable. Another 25,000 Canadians are chronically homeless. This is
unacceptable in a country like Canada. 3
The Vision contained in PEI’s Housing Action Plan echoes this sentiment stating, “All Islanders [shall]
have timely access to safe, accessible, appropriate, and affordable housing that meets the diversity of
their needs and maximizes their ability to be healthy, productive, and successful.” 4
The challenge of fulfilling this vision has increased over the past five years. Canada was the fastest
growing country in the G7 from 2016 to 2021 with a population increase of 5.8%. According to recently
released Census data, PEI was the fastest growing province in Canada, increasing its population by
8.0%. The Charlottetown region, furthermore, has outpaced the province. Queens County grew by 9.7%
1
United Nations International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, Article 11, Section 1,
https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/cescr.aspx
2
The National Housing Strategy Act was passed on June 21, 2019, and came into effect on July 9, 2019 (see: https://laws-
lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/N-11.2/FullText.html).
3
Canadian Human Rights Commission, “STATEMENT - A fundamental human right: CHRC welcomes national housing strategy
legislation,” April 12, 2019, https://www.chrc-ccdp.gc.ca/eng/content/statement-fundamental-human-right-chrc-welcomes-
national-housing-strategy-legislation.
4
Prince Edward Island, Housing Action Plan for Prince Edward Island, undated, p. 3,
https://www.princeedwardisland.ca/sites/default/files/publications/pei-housing-action-plan_2018-2023.pdf.
1
Introduction
and, although the City of Charlottetown grew slightly less than the province (7.5%), the Towns of Cornwall
and Stratford, respectively, added 22.9% and 12.5% to their populations. 5
A critical direct consequence of this influx of population has been an unprecedented upsurge in housing
demand. The issues the municipalities of Charlottetown’s Capital Region (i.e., the City of Charlottetown,
and the Towns of Cornwall and Stratford) now face have been in the forefront for some time in several of
Canada’s largest urban centres, most notably Toronto and Vancouver. They have spread to other
communities recently because of the widening range of immigrant destinations, shifting domestic
demographics, and the challenges of both renting and owning in the face of home prices that have
escalated beyond the reach of many residents even many with good-paying employment. Medium-sized
cities and regional centres are now experiencing housing shortages that were previously confined to our
largest, fastest growing centres, in part because residents in those very large centres have begun to seek
alternative places to live that are more affordable and, perhaps, more evenly paced.
The issues arise from positive and negative trends. In Prince Edward Island, international immigrants,
inter-provincial movers, and movers from rural areas of the Island into its primary urban centre have
created demand for housing that has, at least in the short-term, overwhelmed the housing market in the
Capital Region. All three streams of newcomers are endorsing the Capital Region. Charlottetown,
Cornwall, and Stratford offer jobs, lifestyles, services, and amenities that are drawing new residents.
Rural residents may well be attracted by a wider range of housing types available in the urban region as
well as by more varied employment, while immigrants from other provinces and countries are likely drawn
by what, to them, are lower housing costs, among other factors. All undoubtedly consider the lifestyle
available in the Capital Region where urban amenities are available in a renowned natural setting.
The result, nevertheless, is recent pressure on the local housing market. In 2019, the National Post
reported:
As of [fall 2018], the vacancy rate in Charlottetown is 0.2 per cent, the lowest ever
recorded in the city by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. This rate
compares to a 1.1 per cent vacancy rate in Toronto. The average rent for a two-bedroom
apartment in Charlottetown is $921, and the median price of a single detached home is
approximately $285,000, an 18 per cent increase from last year. In the Greater Toronto
Area, tenants have faced a housing shortage for more than a decade, but now the crisis
of the 905 has entered the 902. 6
Among 26 Census agglomerations with populations over 50,000 people for which Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported vacancies, Charlottetown ranked first in the country at the time.
The rate was 1.0% the preceding year, which ranked second. In 2019, it rose to 1.2% which moved the
region down to fifth. The most recent data for 2020 shows vacancy rose to 2.5% placing the region twelfth
5
All growth rates based on the 2021 Census of Canada, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810000203.
6
Meagan Campbell, “One of the most severe housing crises in Canada is currently unfolding in an unexpected place:
Charlottetown, P.E.I.,” National Post, July 2, 2019, https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/charlottetowns-housing-
crisis#:~:text=As%20of%20last%20fall%2C%20the,cent%20vacancy%20rate%20in%20Toronto.
2
Introduction
on the list. While the trend is positive, 2.5% is just over the 2.0% minimum vacancy rate indicative of a
healthy housing market. 7
The current pandemic has been a factor in recent developments. Contacts with ViewPoint Realty with
whom Stantec has worked in Halifax have told us that despite a lull in activity when the lockdown began,
transactions in Nova Scotia in 2020 were up 40% over 2019. In Atlantic Canada, they suggest that while
international immigration was curtailed through the pandemic, the success of the Atlantic Provinces in
suppressing the incidence of COVID-19 stimulated many former Atlantic Canadians and individuals with
affinities to the region located in Central and Western Canada to return or act on a long-standing interest
in living here. Many accustomed to much higher priced real estate markets have bid up Atlantic Canadian
prices. PEI has experienced the fourth largest housing price increase (18.1%) among Canadian provinces
since 2019. 8
Overall, many reasons can be cited for issues that are currently challenging housing markets in the
Charlottetown region and around the world. Frequently cited causes range from financialization to short-
term rental (e.g., Airbnb) to the diminished role of the public sector in housing provision. Each community,
of course, has its own unique features and special challenges. PEI, we have read and been told, is also
influenced by its relatively small construction sector, which has limited the ability of developers and
builders to satisfy demand.
Regardless of the causes, dealing with housing challenges is critical to continued success in the Capital
Region as well as the welfare of community members. PEI and Charlottetown have reaped the benefits of
initiatives to retain domestic population and attract immigration. The local economy is stronger, and the
aging of the province’s population has been significantly countered. Without adequate housing, however,
newcomers cannot be accommodated, and longer-term residents may be forced to leave, undoing PEI’s
progress over the past decade.
Our effort for this assignment has been directed at identifying specific keys for the Capital Region and
developing solutions geared to its unique challenges. As the home of a provincial capital with three strong
growing municipalities, attractive and accessible exurban areas, the charm of its Island location, and
many other exceptional attributes, the Capital Region is characterized by a variety of features that both
exacerbate its current issues and provide opportunities for resolution. This report summarizes our project
work. It provides an overview of housing issues nationally and in PEI; the state of the PEI economy;
population and housing estimates presented in three scenarios; an assessment of the land supply
available for residential development in relation to our estimates of future need; and our conclusions with
recommendations to address the issues identified.
7
See: “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, vacancy rates, row and apartment structures of three units and over,
privately initiated in census agglomerations of 50,000 and over, weighted average,”
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410013101&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2001&cubeTimeFrame.endYea
r=2020&referencePeriods=20010101%2C20200101
8
Emma Davie, “Booming Halifax housing market shows no signs of slowing down,” Oct 17, 2020,
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-halifax-housing-market-boom-continues-1.5764853.
3
Introduction
Our clients for this assignment are the City of Charlottetown, and the Towns of Cornwall, and Stratford.
The Province of PEI has helped fund the project and has been an important participant in the conduct of
our work as an active participant on the Project Steering Committee, an important source of information,
and a reviewer, along with the municipalities, of project outputs Our focus is on municipal action;
however, we recognize the roles of the Provincial and Federal governments in delivering housing funding,
policy, and programs on which municipalities can draw both inspiration and assistance.
We would like to note that the geographies to which we refer in this study vary. While data on housing in
Canada is not in short supply, local housing information often lacks necessary detail. This is particularly
true for PEI and the Charlottetown region, which as relatively small entities are sometimes excluded from
national data collection exercises and, where they are included, sometimes present difficulties for
sampling data. Ideally, we would like to assess issues based on data specific to the three Capital Region
municipalities either collectively or individually.
A great deal of housing data, however, is only produced at the provincial or census metropolitan
(CMA)/census agglomeration (CA) levels. The Charlottetown region is a recognized CA. The CA, which is
illustrated in Figure 5-1, below, includes substantial areas beyond the three Capital Region
municipalities. Unfortunately, as well, considerable valuable statistical information is only available for
CMAs as opposed to CAs. Charlottetown, furthermore, is among the country’s smallest CAs and is
occasionally dropped from compilations of CA data by Statistics Canada and Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation. Private organizations such as the Canadian Real Estate Association, similarly, do
not report some data for the Charlottetown or the Capital Region that is available for large centres.
For these reasons, we have occasionally resorted to national-level data to describe and assess housing
issues but more frequently to provincial-level statistics. Where possible, we have used CA data as it is a
more precise reflection of the circumstances in the Capital Region. Sometimes CA data is only available
for all CAs on the Island (i.e., Summerside as well as Charlottetown) and we have referred to that data
when we considered it the best available option. We should also note that many data items collected for
the Charlottetown CA and sub-areas within the CA, are considered less reliable than for larger
communities in Canada because of sample size issues.
Where possible, we have favoured data specific to the three Capital Region municipalities, which are
census subdivisions in Statistics Canada’s statistical framework. Most data items of interest for census
subdivisions are available for national census years. The most recent fully processed census was
conducted 2016. A new national census was completed in 2021, but Statistics Canada only began to
release data in early 2022. This report reflects initial 2021 census numbers and estimates, which include
total population and dwelling units for municipalities. These numbers have been taken into account where
possible in our analysis and future estimates below. We have adjusted census numbers where data is
available to support the necessary estimates, particularly for the population and housing estimates
presented in Chapter 6.0 below, and have referred to data such as building permit statistics provided by
the municipalities to further enhance our understanding of the specific circumstances of Charlottetown,
Cornwall, and Stratford. Statistics Canada will release additional data gradually over the course of 2022
with critical housing data scheduled for release in September.
4
2.0 HOUSING ISSUES
Given the importance of housing to comfort and security of all members of society, it is a leading public
policy concern. The focus of concern until recently in Canada, though, has been on a few large urban
markets – most notably Toronto and Vancouver – where housing prices have been far above the balance
of the national market. In the past five years, however, the issues faced in the country’s largest cities
have spread to smaller centres, partly because residents of the major centres have sought new locations
that provide relief from high housing costs, and, most recently, because technological changes
implemented and tested in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic have made alternatives
economically viable. The impact of this change on Atlantic Canada has been particularly pronounced as
our traditionally stable housing markets have seen sudden, large price increases and major pressures on
supply.
The Charlottetown area, with the Capital Region municipalities of Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford
at its centre, has been impacted significantly. It has been a leading destination for new migrants to the
Atlantic region and has seen record increases in house prices as well as unprecedented low vacancy
rates for rental accommodation. While many residents have benefited from substantial increases in home
equity, others face challenges finding, affording, and retaining accommodation. New homebuyers, tenants
seeking new accommodations of forced out of current accommodations, arriving immigrants, persons with
low incomes, and the mentally and physically challenged have been notably affected.
2.1 HOUSING TRENDS

Population has grown in PEI since the 1970s, although the rate of growth was generally slow from 1980
to 2010. Annual growth rates during the three decades beginning in 1980 rarely exceeded a full
percentage point in any one year. In several years, the Island’s population declined. Since 2010,
however, population growth exceeded a percentage point in seven years and fell back just once (in
2013). Queens County and the Charlottetown CA have followed a similar pattern but with stronger growth
rates, frequently more than two percentage points in a year (Figure 2-1).
As population has risen, household size has declined, although the decline in the number of persons per
dwelling unit is tied more to changes in the age composition of the population than the increase in
numbers. The number of persons per dwelling unit has declined reliably from the 1881 Census of Canada
when it was 5.3 for the entire country to its current levels. From 2001 to 2021, average household size fell
by 0.13 persons per occupied dwelling unit for Canada, 0.27 for the province of PEI, and 0.18 persons for
the Capital Region. The average household size in Canada stood at 2.47 persons per dwelling unit
according to the 2021 Census. The average for PEI was 2.49 and for the Capital Region was 2.33. The
long-term decline in the number of people per household has increased the number of dwelling units
required and influenced the type of units needed. It has exerted pressure on the housing supply even
when population has declined and has exacerbated the impact of population increases when they have
occurred.
5
Housing Issues
Figure 2-1 Population Growth and Change, PEI, Queens and Capital Region, 1971-
2020
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
PEI Queens Capital Region

Linear (PEI) Linear (Queens) Linear (Capital Region)
PEI PEI (cont’d) Queens Capital Region

Year Pop. % Change Year Pop. % Change Pop. % Change Pop. % Change
1971 112,591 2001 136,665 0.14% 72,362 43,488
1972 113,460 0.77% 2002 136,880 0.16% 72,574 0.29% 43,697 0.48%
1973 114,620 1.02% 2003 137,227 0.25% 72,860 0.39% 43,887 0.43%
1974 115,962 1.17% 2004 137,680 0.33% 73,221 0.50% 44,115 0.52%
1975 117,724 1.52% 2005 138,064 0.28% 73,574 0.48% 44,376 0.59%
1976 118,648 0.78% 2006 137,867 -0.14% 73,875 0.41% 44,651 0.62%
1977 119,902 1.06% 2007 137,711 -0.11% 73,968 0.13% 45,017 0.82%
1978 121,684 1.49% 2008 138,749 0.75% 74,860 1.21% 45,767 1.67%
1979 122,885 0.99% 2009 139,891 0.82% 76,220 1.82% 46,955 2.60%
1980 123,735 0.69% 2010 141,654 1.26% 77,859 2.15% 48,184 2.62%
1981 123,551 -0.15% 2011 143,963 1.63% 80,223 3.04% 49,825 3.41%
1982 123,588 0.03% 2012 144,530 0.39% 81,233 1.26% 50,390 1.13%
1983 125,102 1.23% 2013 144,094 -0.30% 81,163 -0.09% 50,224 -0.33%
1984 126,563 1.17% 2014 144,283 0.13% 81,683 0.64% 50,619 0.79%
1985 127,619 0.83% 2015 144,546 0.18% 82,382 0.86% 51,376 1.50%
1986 128,436 0.64% 2016 146,969 1.68% 84,545 2.63% 52,784 2.74%
1987 128,641 0.16% 2017 150,402 2.34% 87,421 3.40% 54,667 3.57%
1988 129,289 0.50% 2018 153,396 1.99% 89,868 2.80% 56,259 2.91%
1989 130,153 0.67% 2019 157,419 2.62% 92,695 3.15% 58,132 3.33%
1990 130,404 0.19% 2020 161,329 2.48% 95,482 3.01% 59,947 3.12%
1991 130,369 -0.03% 2021 164,318 1.85% 97,211 1.81% 60,906 1.60%
1992 130,827 0.35%
1993 132,177 1.03%
1994 133,437 0.95%
1995 134,415 0.73%
1996 135,737 0.98%
1997 136,095 0.26%
1998 135,804 -0.21%
1999 136,281
2000 136,470
Source Statistics Canada Estimates
6
Housing Issues
Two distinct demographic shifts have influenced household size. From the mid-1960s, birth rates declined
resulting in fewer children in families. Since that time, the major influences have been increasing longevity
and the passage of the large proportion of the population born in the Baby Boom (i.e., 1946 to 1966) from
childhood into late middle age and now senior status. From 2001 to 2021, the national median age
increased from 37.2 to 41.1 years, while PEI rose from 37.6 to 42.4.
The Capital Region municipalities are generally younger based on 2016 median ages. Median ages are
not available for the municipalities in 2001, but the median age for the Charlottetown CA, which
reasonably approximates the Capital Region (with abutting rural communities) increased from 37.3 to
39.2. Demographic analysis and estimates presented in Chapters 5.0 and 6.0 below, demonstrate how
this influence has affected population growth in PEI, Queens County, and the Capital Region, as well as
how recent changes brought on by increased immigration are beginning to counter it.
From 2001 to 2016, the proportion of dwelling units classified as single-detached in Canada has declined
from 56.6% to 53.6%. The Canada-wide shift of nearly four percentage points is almost entirely explained
by increases in the proportions of duplex, rowhouse, and high-rise apartment units, which, respectively,
enlarged their share of housing by 1.4, 1.3, and 0.8 percentage points over the period. No other category
of housing lost or gained more than a single percentage point (Table 2-1).
While smaller households have shifted to smaller ground-level units at the national level, in the Capital
Region, which has moderately smaller proportion of households in single-detached units than Canada but
considerably less than PEI, the major shift has been to low-rise apartments. High-rise apartment buildings
with five or more storeys are not a factor anywhere on the Island. While the share of national households
living in low-rise apartments declined slightly from 18.7% to 18.0% between 2001 and 2016, they
increased from 12.9% of the Island’s housing stock in 2001 to 15.2% (2.3 points) by 2016 and rose from
29.0% of all units in the Capital Region to 31.5% (1.5 points). Rowhousing has also experienced a
significant increase in both the province and the Capital Region, gaining and 1.2 and 1.3 percentage
points, respectively, to reach 3.7% of the housing stock in both cases. The share of flats in duplexes, on
the other hand, increased by just 0.2 percentage points in the Capital and declined by 0.1 percentage
points across the province (Table 2-1).
With significantly smaller households than Cornwall and Stratford, Charlottetown has a much higher
proportion of apartment units at 37.7%, including a small number of high-rise units, compared to 5.9% in
Cornwall and 19.5% in Stratford. The city also has a higher proportion of attached dwelling units than
Stratford with 16.2% relative to 13.1%; however, 19.5% of units in Cornwall are semis, rowhouses, or
flats. The proportions of households in single-detached structures declined significantly in all three
municipalities as proportions in apartments and attached housing rose.
Leading to the recent period in which home prices and rents have escalated abruptly, Table 2-2 reflects
the relative stability of housing markets. Comparison of 2016 to 2001 indicates the percentage of
Canadians who own their own home declined from 67.8% to 63.6%, while homeownership in PEI
declined from 73.3% to 70.3%, and fell from 57.4% to 54.6% in the Capital Region. Affordability
measures, however, changed little for both homeowners and renters.
7
Housing Issues
Table 2-1 Housing and Household Profiles, Charlottetown CA, PEI and Canada, 2001
and 2016
Capital
2016 Charlottetown Cornwall Stratford Region PEI Canada
Occupied private dwellings 16,100 2,025 3,820 21,945 59,470 14,072,080
Structural Type
Single-detached house 7,170 1,350 2,575 11,095 41,185 7,541,495
% of all dwellings 44.5% 66.7% 67.4% 50.6% 69.3% 53.6%
Apartment, 5 or more storeys 40 0 0 40 55 1,391,040
% of all dwellings 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 9.9%
Semi-detached house 1,490 200 355 2,045 3,365 698,800
% of all dwellings 9.3% 9.9% 9.3% 9.3% 5.7% 5.0%
Row house 530 165 115 810 2,230 891,305
% of all dwellings 3.3% 8.1% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 6.3%
Apartment or flat in a duplex 540 30 30 600 950 784,300
% of all dwellings 3.4% 1.5% 0.8% 2.7% 1.6% 5.6%
Apartment, less than 5 storeys 6,040 120 745 6,905 9,050 2,539,390
% of all dwellings 37.5% 5.9% 19.5% 31.5% 15.2% 18.0%
Other single-attached house 35 0 0 35 90 36,005
% of all dwellings 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Movable dwelling 265 165 0 430 2,550 189,755
% of all dwellings 1.6% 8.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.3% 1.3%
Household Size
1 person 5,705 400 835 6,940 16,295 3,969,790
% of all households 35.4% 19.8% 21.9% 31.6% 27.4% 28.2%
2 persons 5,665 735 1,430 7,830 22,905 4,834,605
3 persons 2,295 360 645 3,300 9,010 2,140,640
4 or more persons 2,435 530 905 3,870 11,265 3,127,045
Persons in private households 34,765 5,320 9,630 49,715 139,685 34,460,060
Average household size 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5
Median Age 42.8 39.8 40.5 N/A 44.5 41.2
8
Housing Issues
Table 2-1 (cont’d)

Capital
2001 Charlottetown Cornwall Stratford Region PEI Canada
Occupied private dwellings 13,370 1,545 2,215 17,130 50,795 10,820,050
Structural Type
Single-detached house 6,550 1,095 1,775 9,420 37,290 6,120,380
% of all dwellings 49.0% 70.9% 80.1% 55.0% 73.4% 56.6%
Apartment, 5 or more storeys 30 0 0 30 40 979,470
% of all dwellings 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 9.1%
Semi-detached house 1,175 90 145 1,410 2,485 502,095
% of all dwellings 8.8% 5.8% 6.5% 8.2% 4.9% 4.6%
Row house 340 60 5 405 1,280 538,365
% of all dwellings 2.5% 3.9% 0.2% 2.4% 2.5% 5.0%
Apartment or flat in a duplex 395 20 5 420 840 451,490
% of all dwellings 3.0% 1.3% 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 4.2%
Apartment, less than 5 storeys 4,575 100 285 4,960 6,560 2,028,325
% of all dwellings 34.2% 6.5% 12.9% 29.0% 12.9% 18.7%
Other single-attached house 55 5 0 60 175 39,550
% of all dwellings 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Movable dwelling 250 175 5 430 2,120 160,375
% of all dwellings 1.9% 11.3% 0.2% 2.5% 4.2% 1.5%
Household Size
1 person 4,240 230 335 4,805 11,580 2,622,180
2 persons 4,410 480 745 5,635 16,785 3,420,660
3 persons 2,145 345 425 2,915 9,000 1,828,255
4 or more persons 2,580 495 710 3,785 13,425 2,948,965
Persons in private households 31,035 4,400 6,295 41,730 133,070 28,390,685
Average household size 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6
Median Age N/A N/A N/A N/A 37.7 37.6
Source Census of Canada 2001 and 2016
The widely accepted measure of affordability or “core housing need” in Canada and internationally is that
households should not have to spend more than 30% of their income on accommodation and related
costs. The percentage of Canadian homeowners spending more than 30% of their income on housing
expenses rose slightly from 16.4% to 16.6% from 2001 to 2016. Canadian renters facing the same
affordability challenge, on the other hand, decreased from 42.8% to 40.0% (Table 2-2). Homeowners on
the Island and in the Charlottetown CA in 2016 were less likely than other Canadians to fall below the
affordability standard. In the province, 11.1% of homeowners and 36.3% of tenants spent more than 30%
of their income on housing, improvements in both cases from 2001 when the measures were 12.0% for
homeowners and 40.9% for tenants.
9
Housing Issues
Table 2-2 Housing Tenure and Affordability, Capital Region Municipalities, Capital
Region, PEI and Canada, 2001-2016
Charlotte- Capital
2016 town Cornwall Stratford Region PEI Canada
Owner 7,760 1,500 2,730 11,990 41,780 9,541,320
% of all dwelling units 48.2% 73.9% 71.5% 54.6% 70.3% 67.8%
Renter 8,345 530 1,090 9,965 17,575 4,474,530
Band housing 0 0 0 0 115 56,230
Average owner's major monthly
$1,115 $1,082 $1,205 $1,131 $932 $1,313
payments
Average monthly gross rent $863 $1,001 $979 $883 $818 $1,002
Average household income (2015) $70,857 $86,965 $95,789 N/A $74,210 $92,764
Median household income (2015) $200,284 $199,941 $240,102 N/A $61,163 $70,366
Average value of dwelling $239,450 $212,407 $286,259 N/A $197,966 $341,556
Avg. owners annual payments/ avg.
18.9% 14.9% 15.1% N/A 15.1% 17.0%
household income
Avg. annual gross rent
14.6% 13.8% 12.3% N/A 13.2% 13.0%
Avg. household income
Avg. dwelling value
3.38 2.44 2.99 N/A 2.66 3.68
Avg. household Income
Owners spending 30% or more of
1,010 160 335 1,505 4,638 1,583,859
household income on shelter costs
% of owners 13.0% 10.8% 12.3% 12.6% 11.1% 16.6%
Gross rent spending 30% or more of
3,395 165 400 3,960 6,380 1,789,812
% of tenants 40.7% 30.8% 37.0% 39.7% 36.3% 40.0%
2001
Owner 6,885 1,220 1,735 9,840 37,170 6,877,780
Renter 6,490 325 475 7,290 13,530 3,905,145
Band housing 0 0 0 N/A N/A 37,125
% of all dwelling units 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A 0.3%
Average owner's major monthly
$734 $693 $851 $750 $605 $754
payments
Average monthly gross rent $580 $569 $639 $583 $543 $595
Average household income (2000) $48,776 $58,298 $65,886 N/A $48,097 $56,070
Median household income (2000) $38,288 $54,587 $59,046 N/A $40,512 $48,432
Average value of dwelling $125,367 $102,526 $138,991 N/A $100,675 $147,877
Avg. owners annual payments/ avg.
18.1% 14.3% 15.5% N/A 15.1% 16.1%
household income
Avg. annual gross rent
14.3% 11.7% 11.6% N/A 13.5% 12.7%
Avg. household income
Avg. dwelling value
2.57 1.76 2.11 N/A 2.09 2.64
Avg. household Income
Owner's spending 30% or more of
985 85 205 1,275 4,310 1,129,000
% of owners 14.3% 7.1% 11.8% 13.0% 12.0% 16.4%
Gross rent spending 30% or more of
2,935 140 105 3,180 5,520 1,670,775
% of tenants 45.4% 43.1% 21.9% 43.6% 40.9% 42.8%
10
Housing Issues
In the Capital Region portion, affordability varied considerably. In 2016, 40.7% of homeowners in
Charlottetown and 13.0% of renters, spent more than 30% of their income on shelter, down from 14.3%
and 45.4% in 2001. Affordability was less of a concern in Cornwall and Stratford where homeowners
spending more than 30% of their income on housing accounted for 10.8% and 12.3%, respectively, and
renters in the same situation represented 30.8% and 37.0%, respectively. In Cornwall, renters facing
affordability challenges declined from 43.1% in 2001 but the proportion of homeowners increased from
7.1%. In Stratford, renters with affordability issues increased significantly from 21.9% to 37.0% and
owners from 11.8% to 12.3%.
While core housing need is the primary concern of many housing observers, particularly those involved
with social housing, data for PEI and the Capital Region suffers from serious limitations. CMHC develops
estimates of households spending more than 30% of their income on housing from its annual surveys but
not for CSDs like Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford. Statistics are available for PEI’s CAs (i.e., PEI’s
urban households); however, the data quality for PEI is routinely rated by CMHC as poor because of the
small samples taken and relatively high levels of non-response. Annual statistics from 2011 through 2019
in Figure 2-2 are rated either “Acceptable” for 2017 and 2018 or “Use with caution” for the remaining
years based on the estimated degree of variance in the sample. Data for the census years from 1991 to
2011 is not so qualified but it is notable that PEI recorded the highest non-response rate of any province
in the 2011 NHS (33.4% compared to a national average of 26.1%).
Figure 2-2 Number of Urban Households in Core Housing Need, PEI Census
Agglomerations (CAs), 1991-2019
12,000
14.0%
10,000
12.0%
8,000 10.0%
6,200 6,435
6,060 8.0%
6,000 5,585
4,945
4,000 4,000
6.0%
4,000
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
4.0%
2,000 2,000
2,000
2.0%
0 0.0%
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number % Core Need
Source Census of Canada 1991 to 2006, National Household Survey 2001, and CMHC 2012-2019 (Numbers in green are
“Acceptable,” number in amber are “use with caution.” See report text for discussion of data quality issues).
11
Housing Issues
Finally, CMHC core housing need estimates are typically significantly below Statistics Canada estimates
because the two organizations use significantly different approaches to calculate numbers and
percentages. Specifically, Statistics Canada numbers are a percentage of households that require more
than 30% of their income to afford median housing in their community, whereas CMHC estimates are
based on the ability of households to obtain “acceptable housing” for 30% of their income. 9
Setting these serious concerns aside, the data from both sources suggests that the percentage of urban
PEI households in core housing need has been falling significantly. Although the numbers in need rose
moderately from 1991 through 2006, the percentage in need fell as population increased. Since 2011, the
percentage has trended downward, at times steeply. While the rates of 12.3% recorded in 2013 and
11.9% recorded in 2017 are close to levels previously recorded by the census and NHS, the surprising
drop from 2017 to 2019 has taken the level to less than half earlier historic levels. Many would
undoubtedly question this finding, which is based on questionable data, and does not consider the past
three years in which the COVID pandemic has impacted the Capital Region’s housing market.
To assess affordability for the entire population, we divided annual owner’s major expenses and annual
gross rents by annual household income. For both owners and renters in Canada, PEI, and the Capital
Region municipalities, the relationship of housing costs to income was remarkably stable over the period.
For Canada, between 2001 and 2016, average major payments by owners increased from 16.1% of
average income to 17.0%, while PEI was static at 15.1% both years. Changes for renters were also
moderate. Across Canada, the percentage of average annual household income required to cover
average annual gross rents rose from 12.7% to 13.0%, while in PEI, they fell from 13.5% to 13.2%.
Similar stability is apparent within the Capital Region over the 2001 to 2016 period. Homeownership costs
and rents were highest in Charlottetown where the proportion of income required to satisfy housing costs
is above the national average at 18.9% for owners and 14.6% for renters up from 18.1% and 14.3% in
2001. In Cornwall, the relationships between housing costs and incomes were close to the provincial
norm, with Cornwall owners paying 14.9% of household income and renters 13.8%, while the respective
proportions for Stratford were 15.1% and 12.3%. Like Charlottetown, percentages of income required for
housing rose marginally, except for homeowners in Stratford for whom the share of income required from
housing declined moderately from 15.5% to 15.1%, likely reflecting the shift to apartments and ground
level attached units in the Town over the period.
The most striking shift in a cost factor over the period was price. Whereas the average home cost of
$147,877 in Canada represented 2.64 times the national average household income in 2001, it rose to
3.68 times the national average by 2016 (39.4% increase). Across the Island, the ratio was more
moderate, but rose from 2.09 to 2.66 (27.7%). In the City of Charlottetown, increases were greater with
the ratio of price to income rising from 2.57 to 3.38 of by 31.5%. In Cornwall and Stratford, home prices
9
Footnotes in CMHC tables state, “A household is in core housing need if its housing is below one or more of the adequacy,
suitability and affordability standards, and it would have to spend 30% or more of its before-tax household income to access
local housing that meets all three standards. Adequate housing does not require any major repairs, according to residents.
Suitable housing has enough bedrooms for the size and makeup of resident households, according to National Occupancy
Standard (NOS) requirements. Affordable housing costs less than 30% of before-tax household income.”
12
Housing Issues
are more moderate but increases in price relative to income from 2001 to 2016 were larger with the ratio
for Cornwall increasing by 38.6% and for Stratford by 41.7%.
The argument is made that increases in price have been driven by falling mortgage rates, which have
kept the monthly payments of homebuyers much lower than one might expect based on price increases.
While the decline in mortgage rates cannot be denied, total mortgage costs have definitely risen, as
illustrated in Figure 2-3 representing typical mortgage costs in Canada, PEI, and the Charlottetown CA
from mid-2012 to mid-2021. From the beginning of the period shown to its end, costs for holders of new
mortgages in Charlottetown have increased by 27.5%, while costs for all Islanders have risen by 25.4%
and costs for Canadians have gone up 23.6%. Application of the Consumer Price Index for each area,
reduces the increase from the nominal changes, but it is still 9.8% for Canadians as a whole, 14.1% for
Islanders, and 15.8% for residents of the Charlottetown CA 10 – very substantial increases that carry with
them the ongoing concern that increases in interest rates from their historic lows, which are now
underway, will quickly inflate payments to levels that many mortgage holders may find difficult to manage.
Figure 2-3 Average Scheduled Monthly Payments for New Mortgage Loans,
Charlottetown CA, PEI and Canada, Q2 2012-Q2 2021
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
Canada PEI Charlottetown
Source CMHC
10
Mortgage costs for Canada were adjusted to constant 2002 dollars using the national CPI for all items, for PEI using the
provincial CPI, and for Charlottetown using the Charlottetown and Summerside CPI.
13
Housing Issues
2.2 HOUSING PRICES

The previous data from the 2001 and 2016 censuses reflects a calm before the storm. The years since
2016 have seen marked price increases in PEI and across Canada. As population growth has gained
momentum over the past five years, average home prices in PEI have risen steadily and dramatically:
… CMHC data indicate that average home prices [in PEI] were just over $160,000 in both
2014 and 2015, rose to almost $180,000 in 2016, climbed into the mid-$190,000s in
2017, and are expected to top $200,000 in 2018 and to be in the $215-225,000 range in
2019. In all, CMHC projects that average housing prices will rise by close to 25%
between 2016 and 2019. 11
Between 2019 and 2020 PEI experienced the largest increase in house prices of any province in Canada.
Over the course, of a single year, according to Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data in Table
2-3, which may not be strictly comparable to the CMHC estimates cited in the preceding quote, indicates
average home prices in PEI hit more than $250,000 in 2019, an increase in one year of 22.5% that was
almost equivalent to the 25% increase CMHC expected to reach in four years from 2016 to 2019. PEI
moved from the ninth most expensive provincial real estate market to sixth. CREA’s PEI price average of
$307,547 for 2020, in fact, suggests a gain of roughly 70% on the Island from 2016.
Table 2-3 Changes in Average House Prices, Canada and Provinces, 2019-2020
% of % of % of Change Change
Geography Jan/22 Rank Canada Dec/20 Rank Canada Dec19 Rank Canada 20-22 19-20
Canada $748,439 $607,280 $518,761 23.2% 17.1%
PEI $351,890 6 47.0% $307,547 6 50.6% $250,989 9 48.4% 14.4% 22.5%
Nova Scotia $392,828 5 52.5% $319,726 5 52.6% $261,376 8 50.4% 22.9% 22.3%
Ontario $998,629 2 133.4% $751,508 2 123.7% $625,755 2 120.6% 32.9% 20.1%
Quebec $474,941 3 63.5% $401,010 3 66.0% $337,419 4 65.0% 18.4% 18.8%
BC $1,040,888 1 139.1% $843,819 1 139.0% $753,588 1 145.3% 23.4% 12.0%
New Brunswick $275,000 10 36.7% $198,172 10 32.6% $177,531 10 34.2% 38.8% 11.6%
Manitoba $338,772 7 45.3% $303,573 7 50.0% $284,663 5 54.9% 11.6% 6.6%
Newfoundland $324,800 8 43.4% $282,600 8 46.5% $266,000 7 51.3% 14.9% 6.2%
Alberta $443,398 4 59.2% $394,652 4 65.0% $383,390 3 73.9% 12.4% 2.9%
Saskatchewan $285,700 9 38.2% $275,066 9 45.3% $270,589 6 52.2% 3.9% 1.7%
Source Canadian Real Estate Association
Fortunately, the rate of price increases has subsided moderately in the past year. The most recent
available CREA data for January 2021 indicates the rate of increase from December 2020 to January
2022 was 14.4%, which is substantial but less than two-thirds of the increase from 2019 to 2020 and the
fourth lowest of the ten provinces over the 13-month period. Notwithstanding an overall increase in PEI
home prices of 40.2% since 2019 and significant increases in the years from 2016 to 2019, the average
11
Province of Prince Edward Island, “Housing Data and Trends: Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder,” May 17, 2018, p.
6.
14
Housing Issues
cost of a home on the Island is valued at less than half the national average (47.0%) and is actually less
expensive in relative terms than it would have been in 2019 when it stood at 48.4% (Table 2-3).
The surge in both national and PEI housing prices since 2019 came as a surprise to most. The dominant
feature of 2020 and 2021, has been the COVID-19 pandemic. To suppress the spread of the virus,
governments around the world have enforced strict rules to reduce interaction among people. Workplaces
have been restricted or closed and human gatherings have been limited. The Atlantic Provinces have
been very successful in combatting the disease. Thanks to the benefits of isolating geography as well as
strong enforcement of restrictions and disciplined adherence by the public, the four provinces have the
lowest numbers of cases and deaths per capita among Canada’s ten provinces.
Requirements for isolation impacted housing markets in two steps. Initially, pandemic restrictions
suppressed real estate activity, but markets adapted, and activity resumed. Growing familiarity with
remote communication as the pandemic set in facilitated transactions over distances and allowed
interested buyers from outside Atlantic Canada to view real estate online and through video links.
A variety of reasons are cited for the real estate surge in the middle of the economic slowdown forced by
the pandemic. The most prominent is the suppression of other forms of consumption owing to restrictions
on access to retail outlets, restaurants, and entertainment venues, which has resulted in increased levels
of saving. 12 With more capital available and very low interest rates, many Canadians have chosen to
invest in property. Early in 2022, there is no sign that either influence has dissipated. Concerns with
COVID continue with the rise of the Omicron variant yet housing prices continue to increase with CREA
reporting new record high prices on large volumes of house sales at the end of 2021. 13
In Atlantic Canada, the trend has been reinforced by two locally specific factors: lower housing costs and
the lifestyle of the region. The Atlantic Provinces were the four cheapest real estate markets in Canada
before COVID lockdowns began across Canada in early 2020. While all except New Brunswick have
moved up the ladder in the past year, they remain a bargain compared to Canada’s four most populous
provinces (Ontario, Quebec, BC, and Alberta) (Table 2-3, above).
Motivations for moving are not purely economic, however. Real estate contacts have told us that the bulk
of buyers coming to the region from outside have connections to Atlantic Canada. Many are older natives
of the region who have finally decided to move back home. Others have connections with Atlantic Canada
through a family cottage, relatives, or university attendance that have created an affinity for the region.
Both groups have apparently acted on frequently long-standing desires to live here. Some may also have
been attracted by the good performance on the Atlantic Provinces in responding to COVID, which has
reinforced their reputation as safe and secure places to live. For many, lowering housing costs has come
as a bonus.
12
Jesse Snyder and Victor Ferreira, "Household savings in Canada skyrocket during pandemic as Ottawa doles out billions in
emergency benefits," National Post, Nov 18, 2020, https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/household-savings-in-canada-
skyrocket-during-pandemic-as-ottawa-doles-out-billions-in-emergency-benefits.
13
Pete Evans, "Average Canadian house price hit all-time high of $720,850 in November," CBC News, December 15, 2021, and
Don Pitts, "Plenty of room for house price to rise as interest rates stay low," CBC News, July 7, 2021.
15
Housing Issues
Remote work in itself has many positives. Telecommuting has long been advocated by planners to
mitigate the impacts of sprawl. Limitations imposed by lockdowns have also forced many to employ
remote forms of communication to meet individually and in groups. These advances have not only
supported remote work but have also created alternative approaches such as electronic group meetings
and public engagement sessions that can work better in some circumstances than traditional face-to-face
communication. A further influence is the continued rise of electronic retailing and service provision,
which benefits smaller markets such as Atlantic Canada by providing access to a range of products and
options previously confined to larger centres.
Over the course of 2020, the increase in the proportions working remotely was dramatic, although not as
large in PEI as in other Atlantic Provinces or Canada as a whole (Figure 2-5). The proportions are also
exaggerated by increased unemployment among service workers and others whose work is not portable
over the period. 14 Nevertheless, remote work has now been tested thoroughly and proven more than
acceptable for many forms of employment. The practice seems likely to be more common in future,
particularly as some employers move to take advantage of the trend by reducing their office space.
Workers who have made inter-provincial moves seem particularly unlikely to revert to previous
arrangements and continued acceptance may well stimulate further movement to attractive and less
costly markets like the Capital Region.
Figure 2-4 Share of Businesses with Workers Working Remotely, Canada and Atlantic
Provinces, 2020
82.7%
90.0%
74.3%
70.2%
80.0%
65.3%
62.3%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
36.9%
30.1%
28.7%
28.3%
27.8%
40.0%
21.2%
19.1%
30.0%
16.5%
12.0%
9.9%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Canada Newfoundland PEI Nova Scotia New Brunswick
February 1 May 29 August 31
Source Service Canada (from Jill Snow, “The Impact of Covid-19 on Affordable Housing,” March 31, 2021,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXSTqdwIba0)
14
Statistics Canada’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for PEI rose from 8.0% in February 2020 to 14.1% in May but fell
back to 10.7% in August. Rates for Canada at the same points were 5.7%, 13.7%, and 10.2%.
16
Housing Issues
These pandemic influences have levelled the playing field for the Maritimes, to some extent, making
virtues of regional features such as our relative isolation from the rest of North America that have inhibited
development in the past. They are not without their downside. While telecommuting may reduce some
impacts of sprawl, for example, it will not eliminate them. A dispersed settlement pattern is still more
expensive to service with municipal piped networks, utilities, and facilities such as schools and recreation
centres. It also raises personal living costs given that vehicle ownership and operation continue to be a
necessity for most outlying residents. Remote work, furthermore, is primarily a benefit to high income
workers who have traditionally had more portable jobs (Figure 2-5). While higher income households are
a benefit to the province in most ways, they are able to bid higher prices for available housing. The arrival
of remote workers in the Capital Region from Central and Western Canada is clearly a contributing factor
to rising home prices and rents. Further in-migration of this group should benefit the local economy
through increased expenditure, but will can be expected to maintain pressure both rents and house
prices.
Figure 2-5 Percentage of Workers Working Some Scheduled (non-overtime) Hours at

Home by Income Category, Canada, 2016
35.0%
29.7%
30.0%
23.9%
22.1%
25.0%
16.7%
20.0%
11.1%
15.0%
7.4%
10.0%
5.6%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than $20,000- $40,000- $60,000- $80,000- $100,000- $120,000 or
$20,000 $39,999 $59,999 $79,999 $99,999 $119,999 more
Source Statistics Canada, General Social Survey (from Jill Snow, “The Impact of Covid-19 on Affordable Housing,” March
31, 2021)
Reduction of direct interaction among people in the long-term may also impact economic sectors such as
conventional retailing and restaurants, which have traditionally relied on close interactions between
employees and patrons as well as among patrons themselves. A decline in interpersonal engagement
could have far-reaching effects from loss of jobs – at least in businesses with traditional formats – to
psychological impacts. Planners will likely face significant challenges after the pandemic dealing with
these shifts. In PEI, where the province’s small population is tightly integrated and where tourism and
hospitality are prominent economic sectors, the challenge may well be larger than elsewhere.
17
Housing Issues
2.3 HOUSING RENTS

According to the 2016 Census, Prince Edward Island had 59,740 occupied dwelling units of which 17,575
(29.6%) were rented to provide accommodation for 34,225 people or 24.4% of all Islanders. the Capital
Region accounted for 9,965 rental units in the same count or 56.7% of the Island’s rental stock. The great
majority of rentals were in the City of Charlottetown (83.7%). Stratford accounted for only 10.9% and
Cornwall just 5.3% (Figure 2-6). According to census counts, the proportion of dwelling units rented grew
significantly between 2001 and 2016 from 42.6% to 45.4%; however, it appears to have fallen back even
more substantially in the middle of the period with the 2006 and 2011 censuses finding 41.4% and 41.5%
of units rented, respectively (Figure 2-6). While the proportions renting were less in all three
municipalities in 2006 and 2011, all three saw large increases from 2011 to 2016, with very large
proportionate increases in Stratford and Cornwall (4.0 and 6.7 percentage points, respectively).
Observation since 2016 suggests, the number and share of rental units have continued to increase.
Figure 2-6 Rented Private Dwellings, Capitol Region, 2001-2016

Number of Rented Units Proportion of Units Rented
48.5%
51.8%
12,000
48.2%
48.0%
60.0%
45.4%
42.6%
41.5%
41.4%
10,000 50.0%
530
28.5%
26.1%
40.0%
24.5%
8,000 365
21.5%
21.0%
20.8%
19.4%
19.1%
325 320 30.0%
6,000
8,345 20.0%
4,000 7,200
6,490 6,495 10.0%
2,000 0.0%
475 550 805 1,090

0
2001 2006 2011 2016
Stratford Charlottetown
Cornwall Capitol Region 2001 2006 2011 2016
Source Census of Canada
Rented units are most often found in multiple-unit buildings, although attached dwellings (i.e., semi-
detached and rowhouse units) are also an important factor. Whereas nearly 85% of owned units were
single-detached houses in 2016, they accounted for just 9.0% of rental units in the Capital Region
(Figure 2-7). Another 0.5% are movable dwellings, which are also detached structures. More than 70% of
rented units in the Capitol Region were apartments in multiple-unit buildings or duplexes (7,010 or 70.5%
of all rented units). The largest single category of rental accommodation was low-rise apartments in
buildings less than five storeys high, which accounted for nearly two-thirds (66.2%) of all rented units.
Semis and rowhousing comprised another fifth (20.1% combined). Duplexes made up 3.8% of rental
units, and high-rise apartments, which are rare in PEI, accounted for just 0.5%.
18
Housing Issues
Figure 2-7 Owned and Rented Dwelling Units by Structural Type, Capitol Region, 2016
Single 84.8%, 10,165

9.0%, 900
Apt 5+ storeys 0.0%, 0
0.5%, 45
Semi 6.1%, 730
12.9%, 1,290
Rowhouse 1.1%, 135
7.1%, 705
Duplex 1.5%, 175
3.8%, 375
Apt 1-4 storeys 2.8%, 330
66.1%, 6,590
Other Attached 0.2%, 20
0.2%, 15
Movable Dwelling 3.6%, 430
0.5%, 50
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Owner Renter
Source Census of Canada 2016
Rental units in PEI are subject to rent controls under the PEI Rental of Residential Property Act,
proclaimed in 1988. The Act limits rent increases to a percentage set annually. Other provinces with rent
controls are Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, and BC. Nova Scotia adopted interim rent controls in 2020 that
were recently extended to 2023. Rent increases in PEI may be varied depending on the type of heating
provided under a lease. They were limited to 1% across the board for PEI in 2021 and will be again in
2022. Allowable increases have varied from 0% to 2% since 2011, although increases in the 5.0% to
7.5% range have been occasionally permitted in the past. 15
Notwithstanding the presence of rent controls since 1988, rents in PEI have escalated along with home
prices. Despite a period of stability to 2008, 2020 rents in constant 2002 dollars (i.e., controlled for
inflation), were roughly 25% higher than in the early 1990s (Figure 2-8). Between 2018 and 2019,
average rents for two-bedroom units in Charlottetown rose 2.9% and by 2.7% the following year. Rents in
all Island communities with populations of more than 10,000, which is a combination of the Summerside
with the Charlottetown CAs, increased by 2.8% from 2018 to 2019 and then by 3.2%. Rents in both
geographies changed little relative to national rent levels, which rose more at 3.9% followed by 3.5%.
Consequently, rents in the Charlottetown CA were slightly lower in proportion to national rents in 2020
than they were in 2019, falling slightly from 87.0% to 86.9% of national rents. The Island similarly slipped
from 85.5% to 85.2%. As Table 2-4 shows, most provinces experienced larger rent increases than PEI
and rents in both PEI and Charlottetown are still well below most of the country.
15
PEI, Director of the Office of Residential Rental Property, "Allowable Rent Increases," https://peirentaloffice.ca/allowable-rent-
increases/
19
Housing Issues
Figure 2-8 Average Rents, Constant 2002$, PEI, 1990-2020

$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Bachelor 1-Bedrm 2-Bedrm 3-Bedrm Total
Source CMHC
Rental units are critical to housing affordability. Monthly rental costs are normally lower than
homeownership costs (i.e., mortgage and taxes plus operation and maintenance) and a large upfront
payment is not required. Renting is also better suited to groups facing permanent or life cycle challenges,
such as the physically and mentally challenged, and the elderly who find maintenance requirements
difficult in addition to financial demands; and immigrants and young people who may require flexibility as
well as lower costs. For many, of course, rental is simply a preference derived from a variety of factors.
Figure 2-9 illustrates allowable rent increases approved by IRAC since 2006 with increases recorded for
average rented units in PEI by CMHC (see Figure 2-8, above). 16 Over the period from 2006 to 2020,
IRAC has approved increases compounding to 46.6%, while rents for average apartments in PEI
increased by 54.8%. Increases in average rents can be expected to exceed IRAC guidelines as new units
added to the market are permitted to be rented at whatever price the market commands. Since 2016,
average rents recorded by CMHC have risen much more rapidly than rates approved by IRAC, rising by
14.5%, while the Commission has approved an overall increase of just 6.7%.
16
Approved increases for 2006 through 2015, were sourced from IRAC, "Summary Report and Analysis: Allowable Percentage
Rent Increase for 2016," September 18, 2015, p. 4. Increases permitted for 2017 through 2020 were obtained from IRAC,"2021
Maximum Allowable Rent Increase Summary," NOTICE - September 1, 2020, p.2. The average is the weighted average of all
unit types shown in Figure 2-8.
20
Housing Issues
Table 2-4 Vacancy Rates and Rents, Two-bedroom Apartments, Canada, Provinces
and Select Urban Centres, October 2019 and October 2020
Vacancy Rates October 2019 October 2020 % Change
% of % of
Province*/ Average Canadian Average Canadian Oct-18 to Oct-19 to
Urban Centre Oct-19 Oct-20 Rents Average Rents Average Oct-19 Oct-20
Newfoundland 7.0% 7.2% $880 81.7% $891 79.2% 0.0% 1.4%
- St. John's CMA 6.9% 7.5% $966 89.7% $974 86.6% -0.8% 1.6%
PEI 1.2% 2.6% $921 85.5% $959 85.2% 2.8% 3.2%
- Charlottetown CA 1.2% 2.7% $937 87.0% $978 86.9% 2.9% 2.7%
Nova Scotia 1.4% 2.1% $1,133 105.2% $1,183 105.2% 3.5% 4.0%
- Halifax CMA 1.0% 1.9% $1,202 111.6% $1,255 111.6% 3.7% 4.2%
New Brunswick 2.6% 3.1% $842 78.2% $892 79.3% 3.5% 3.7%
- Moncton CMA 2.2% 2.8% $870 80.8% $949 84.4% 2.6% 4.7%
- Saint John CMA 3.3% 3.1% $797 74.0% $825 73.3% 4.4% 3.3%
Quebec 1.8% 2.5% $815 75.7% $856 76.1% 3.0% 3.3%
- Montréal CMA 1.5% 2.7% $855 79.4% $903 80.3% 3.4% 3.6%
Ontario 2.0% 3.2% $1,339 124.3% $1,408 125.2% 5.8% 4.8%
- Toronto CMA 1.5% 3.4% $1,562 145.0% $1,635 145.3% 6.1% 4.5%
Manitoba 3.1% 3.8% $1,177 109.3% $1,215 108.0% 3.1% 2.9%
Saskatchewan 8.4% 7.1% $1,080 100.3% $1,104 98.1% 1.0% 1.1%
Alberta 5.3% 7.2% $1,235 114.7% $1,249 111.0% 1.4% 0.1%
British Columbia 1.5% 2.4% $1,468 136.3% $1,515 134.7% 4.3% 2.1%
- Vancouver CMA 1.1% 2.6% $1,748 162.3% $1,792 159.3% 4.9% 1.5%
Canada, 10,000+ 2.2% 3.2% $1,077 100.0% $1,125 100.0% 3.9% 3.5%
Canada CMAs 2.0% 3.2% $1,113 103.3% $1,165 103.6% 4.1% 3.6%
* Provincial communities with 10,000 or more population only
Source CMHC
While rent increases have exceeded provincial guidelines as new units for which initial prices are
negotiable have been added to the market and have drawn criticism from tenant advocates, the leading
rental concern has been the vacancy rate. As we have noted, the Charlottetown market tightened
dramatically in 2018 with the vacancy rate dropping to just 0.2%. While the rate has since recovered to
2.5%, it is still below the minimum 2% level housing analysts consider desirable to accommodate
reasonable turnover in the market. It is also noteworthy that vacancy in Charlottetown has dipped to low
levels previously in 2001 and 2002, and 2008 to 2010, as well as since 2016. At the same time, it has
fluctuated considerably, reaching a high of 8.0% in 2013 (Figure 2-10).
21
Housing Issues
Figure 2-9 IRAC Approved Rent Increases and Average Actual Rent Increases, PEI,
2006-2021
Differences Between IRAC Approved Increase and Actual Rent Increases
Source IRAC and CMHC
Low vacancy rents, whenever they occur, put tenants under pressure. Landlords facing high demand for
rental units, pick and choose tenants. Tenants with families, pet owners, immigrants, and low-income
households are often passed over for other tenants who landlords perceive as posing less risk. Many find
themselves in weak positions with limited bargaining power, requiring them to “take what they can get.”
22
Housing Issues
Figure 2-10 Vacancy Rates, Charlottetown CA and Census Agglomerations with 50,000
or more Population, 2001-2019
9.0%
8.0%
8.0%
7.2%
7.0% 6.3%
6.2% 6.2%
5.8% 5.8%
6.0% 5.4% 5.5%
5.0%
4.8%
5.0% 4.3%
4.0%4.1% 4.1% 4.0%
4.0% 3.4% 3.3%
3.1%
3.0% 2.6% 2.5%
2.3% 2.2%
2.1%
1.8% 1.7%
2.0%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
All census agglomerations 50,000 and over Charlottetown
Source CMHC
In addition to difficulty finding accommodation, tenants have become more vulnerable to eviction. With
higher rents available or in face of rising costs, or to liquidate investment property for profit, landlords may
be incentivized to remove tenants to facilitate renovation or sale, or both. Housing advocates have been
very vocal about the so called renoviction process, which can displace reliable and well-behaved tenants
for the benefit of landlords seeking to work around rent controls or obtain profits from the sale of their
property.
While news items have cited the process in PEI, data from the PEI Office of the Director of Rental
Property, which hears landlord and tenant appeals indicates that it has not been a major factor in recent
evictions. Although eviction actions rose significantly from 2017 to 2018, they have fallen back since
(Table 2-5). The Office of the Director acknowledges that the reasons for eviction may be complex, but
renovation has been cited as the leading cause in only 11 cases where the landlord sought Delivery of
Possession. It has, on the other hand, been specified by 89 tenants seeking to have evictions set aside,
making renovations the fourth most common reason cited by tenants who resisted their removal from their
accommodation. In any case, the Province, in late 2021, placed a two-year moratorium on eviction of
tenants for renovations. 17
17
Kerry Campbell, “P.E.I. declares moratorium on 'renovictions' for 2 years,” CBC News, November 17, 2021,
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-renoviction-moratorium-eviction-1.6253174.
23
Housing Issues
Table 2-5 Rental Statistics Involving Applications for Eviction, PEI, 2017-2020
T
Application Purpose 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
Delivery of Possession (DOP) – Landlord 106 140 119 94 459
Earlier Termination – Landlord 24 11 17 18 70
Habitual Non-Payment of Rent – Landlord 13 8 9 8 38
Set Aside – Tenant 79 154 162 123 518
TOTAL 222 313 307 243 1,085
Reasons (Applications filed often involve multiple reasons)
DOP - Non-Payment of Rent 93 95 93 66 347
DOP - Quiet Enjoyment of Other Tenants 9 23 21 18 71
DOP - Safety or Lawful Right 6 25 10 17 58
DOP - Ordinary Cleanliness 2 12 6 9 29
DOP - Damage to Property 2 9 2 2 15
DOP – Renovations 8 3 11
DOP - Own Use/Family Use 1 2 4 3 10
DOP - Unpaid Security Deposit 1 6 2 9
DOP - Illegal Assignment or Sublet 1 2 2 3 8
DOP - Excessive Number of Occupants in the Premises 2 1 2 1 6
DOP - Expiry of Fixed Term Under Tourism Industry Act 2 2
DOP - Fixed-Term Renewal Option Not Exercised 2 2
DOP - Purchaser Seeks Vacant Possession 2 2
DOP - Breach of Other Term of Rental Agreement 1 1
DOP - Comply with Order from Government Authority 1 1
Earlier Termination – Behaviour 24 11 17 18 70
Habitual Non-Payment of Rent 13 8 9 8 38
Set Aside - Quiet Enjoyment of Other Tenants 32 45 56 49 182
Set Aside - Safety or Lawful Right 25 34 45 30 134
Set Aside - Non-Payment of Rent 16 19 26 28 89
Set Aside – Renovations 5 33 33 18 89
Set Aside - Ordinary Cleanliness 16 27 25 17 85
Set Aside - Own Use/Family Use 10 15 20 16 61
Set Aside - Damage to Property 8 13 12 11 44
Set Aside - Convert the Premises to Non-Residential Use 1 14 6 21
Set Aside - Unpaid Security Deposit 5 7 2 5 19
Set Aside - Illegal Assignment or Sublet 2 6 5 5 18
Set Aside - Comply with Order from Government Authority 2 3 7 3 15
Set Aside - Demolishment of Premises 14 1 15
Set Aside - Fixed-Term Renewal Option Not Exercised 2 4 2 5 13
Set Aside - Purchaser Seeks Vacant Possession 5 5 1 11
Set Aside - Excessive Number of Occupants in the Premises 1 1 2 5 9
Set Aside - Misrepresented Premises to Prospective Tenant or Purchaser 2 4 1 7
Set Aside - Breach of Other Term of Rental Agreement 3 3
TOTAL 280 443 422 350 1,495
Source Office of the Director of Rental Property,
http://www.irac.pe.ca/rental/general/Rental_Statistics_InvolvingApplications_For_Eviction.pdf
24
Housing Issues
2.4 ALTERNATIVE HOUSING

While the Charlottetown area has recently been impacted by housing concerns that are very similar to the
long-standing challenges faced in Canada’s largest metropolitan areas, it differs in important respects.
For one, while it dominates the Province of PEI, the Island is the smallest state or provincial jurisdiction in
North America and the Capital Region is similarly small compared to other urban centres. As a smaller
market, for example, Charlottetown is characterized by smaller developments and structures than are
typically found in large markets. The region, for example, has very few high-rise apartment buildings.
PEI is, on the other hand, an important tourist destination and the rise of short-term rentals has been cited
by many as a cause of the recent rental market squeeze in the Capital Region. The region has also
struggled with urban sprawl. The Province imposed the Charlottetown Special Planning Area more than
25 years ago to curtail the physical spread of unserviced development. Reflecting a trend across North
America, planners in the region have also been implementing additional measures to encourage
residential intensification. Their challenge may well grow as the Province upgrades the Island’s highway
network to catch up with many other areas of the country. Faster roadways will facilitate convenient
commuting to the Capital Region from a wider range of communities on the Island.
Another notable issue is the size and capability of the Island’s construction industry. Demand for multiple-
unit housing has only recently seen a need for substantial numbers of apartment units and the sector,
which has been geared to a small, traditional market has had difficulty adapting. Finding necessary skilled
labourers is a challenge in many markets where housing demand has risen rapidly but is particularly
difficult to address in a jurisdiction with a labour force of roughly 35,000.
A further issue created by the small population and market is housing diversity. The relatively small
number of households and dwelling units on the Island presents a significant challenge to the production
of some housing types. The 2016 Census recorded only 40 dwelling units in a building or buildings five or
more stories high within the Charlottetown CA and only 55 in all of PEI. Those numbers, by themselves,
suggest there are only two buildings in the province that might marginally be described as “high-rise.” A
developer interested in building a high-rise structure faces challenges of local resistance to an unfamiliar
building type, an unproven local market, and, we expect, lack of experience in building tall structures
within the local construction sector.
Some advocates have criticized the lack of government involvement in housing provision. The
organization PEI Fight for Affordable Housing (PEIFAH) has, for example, decried the withdrawal of
Federal Government support for public housing, noting the “10% of total housing production in Canada
[between 1965 and 1990] was public, non-profit, or co-operative … providing homes to half of the lowest
income segment of the roughly 170,000 new households added in Canada each year.” 18 The Island does
not however stand out as particularly deficient in most specialized housing types. Although government
has a low profile in housing provision on the Island, the Province has modestly more public housing units
than the Canadian average (Table 2-6). PEI ranks fifth among the ten provinces and behind two of three
18
PEIFAH, “Public Investment,” https://peifah.ca/issues-parent/public-investment/
25
Housing Issues
territories in the percentage of dwelling units provided by the public sector. All public housing units in PEI
are provided by the Province. Municipal governments have had no direct role in housing.
Table 2-6 Public Housing, Canada and Provinces, 2016

Number of Dwelling Units % of All Dwelling Units
Row- Row-
Geography TOTAL Single Semi house Apartment TOTAL Single Semi house Apartment
Canada 252,450 16,768 15,079 61,513 159,090 2.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1.9% 24.1%
Newfoundland 7,810 2,503 260 3,115 1,932 3.6% 1.6% 2.9% 29.7% 25.1%
PEI 1,600 57 318 32 1,193 2.7% 0.1% 9.5% 1.4% 13.2%
Nova Scotia 11,666 1,119 1,317 2,263 6,967 2.9% 0.4% 6.4% 22.2% 16.9%
New Brunswick 4,616 1,008 496 1,144 1,968 1.4% 0.5% 4.0% 12.5% 16.5%
Quebec No data
Ontario 127,064 2,117 3,830 29,032 92,084 2.5% 0.1% 1.3% 6.3% 12.2%
Manitoba 17,507 1,945 1,600 2,870 11,092 3.6% 0.6% 10.0% 16.6% 23.4%
Saskatchewan 17,822 2,136 3,595 3,343 8,748 4.1% 0.7% 28.0% 18.0% 43.8%
Alberta 33,870 2,075 1,900 11,883 18,012 2.2% 0.2% 2.2% 10.2% 17.3%
BC 22,124 496 0 5,648 15,980 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 3.8% 6.4%
Yukon 714 94 86 75 459 4.7% 1.0% 7.4% 8.0% 25.9%
NWT 2,472 902 713 583 274 16.5% 10.5% 73.5% 36.2% 11.5%
Nunavut 5,184 2,316 964 1,525 379 52.8% 53.2% 109.5% 51.5% 31.7%
Source Statistics Canada Table 46-10-0001-01, “Inventory of publicly owned social and affordable housing assets,
Infrastructure Canada”
The province also has representative numbers in most categories of collective housing summarized in
Table 2-7. More than 3,000 Island residents, or 2.2% of the province’s population, are housed in
collective dwellings compared to 1.9% for all of Canada placing PEI fourth among 13 provinces and
territories. The Island has larger proportions of its population in health care facilities, seniors and nursing
homes, and religious residences and communal accommodations. It has notably less in correctional
facilities and shelters. The latter is particularly noteworthy as data suggests the province had only five
shelters in 2016 accommodating just ten people; however, a Saltwire report citing the PEI Department of
Social Development and Housing lists the following facilities with significantly more capacity:
• Bedford-MacDonald House (Charlottetown) – 10 beds
• Blooming House (Charlottetown) – 8 beds
• Chief Mary Bernard (women and children fleeing violence – Lennoxville) – 5 beds
• Anderson House (women and children fleeing violence – Charlottetown) – 8 beds
• Smith Lodge (transitional – Charlottetown) – 9 beds
• Smith Lodge (emergency – Charlottetown) – 6 to 11 beds
26
Housing Issues
• Scattered sites (Summerside, elsewhere) – 10 beds.
Of the up to 56 beds listed, more than 40 are in Charlottetown. 19 In defense of the 2016 Census number,
Blooming House and Smith Lodge, which account for up to 19 beds, were opened in 2019 and 2021
respectively, and the Census count is rounded. Having a slightly above average complement of special
needs and public housing units may not, in the eyes of many, be a sufficient response to current housing
needs and pressures.
Table 2-7 Collective Dwellings and Occupants, Canada and Provinces, 2016
Correctional/
Hotel, Motel,
Health Care
Collective
Collective
Collective
Dwellings
Dwellings
Dwellings
Custodial
Religious
Nursing/
Lodging
Shelters
Service
Service
TOTAL
Homes
Homes
Senior
Group
Other
Other
Geography
Canada
Collective Dwellings 27,780 15,735 6,210 8,445 255 995 8,950 6,820 2,135 1345 1,045
Occupants 685,480 526,900 425,755 65,790 24,470 22,190 64,795 37,945 26,850 48120 16,690
% of population 1.95% 1.50% 1.22% 0.19% 0.07% 0.06% 0.18% 0.11% 0.08% 0.14% 0.05%
PEI
Collective Dwellings 195 90 40 40 0 5 85 75 10 10 5
Occupants 3,145 2,385 1,945 295 25 10 290 260 30 495 5
% of population 2.20% 1.67% 1.36% 0.21% 0.02% 0.01% 0.20% 0.19% 0.02% 0.35% 0.00%
% of population
Newfoundland 1.42% 1.31% 1.02% 0.10% 0.04% 0.02% 0.09% 0.07% 0.02% 0.03% 0.04%
Nova Scotia 1.63% 1.39% 1.06% 0.27% 0.05% 0.04% 0.17% 0.10% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
New Brunswick 2.18% 1.80% 1.33% 0.36% 0.12% 0.03% 0.17% 0.15% 0.02% 0.02% 0.09%
Quebec 2.43% 2.10% 1.80% 0.19% 0.07% 0.04% 0.15% 0.08% 0.07% 0.11% 0.02%
Ontario 1.50% 1.21% 1.00% 0.15% 0.05% 0.07% 0.14% 0.09% 0.05% 0.02% 0.05%
Manitoba 2.94% 1.70% 1.25% 0.22% 0.13% 0.06% 0.25% 0.19% 0.06% 0.89% 0.02%
Saskatchewan 2.52% 1.60% 1.22% 0.27% 0.14% 0.04% 0.14% 0.10% 0.04% 0.58% 0.07%
Alberta 2.18% 1.32% 1.03% 0.17% 0.09% 0.10% 0.21% 0.10% 0.11% 0.43% 0.09%
British Columbia 1.88% 1.35% 1.02% 0.22% 0.08% 0.09% 0.34% 0.18% 0.16% 0.02% 0.06%
Yukon 1.95% 0.67% 0.49% 0.18% 0.11% 0.21% 0.72% 0.51% 0.18% 0.00% 0.25%
Northwest Territories 1.35% 0.64% 0.32% 0.11% 0.10% 0.36% 0.29% 0.24% 0.07% 0.01% 0.05%
Nunavut 0.95% 0.31% 0.09% 0.11% 0.32% 0.15% 0.19% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00% 0.01%
Source Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-400-X2016019
19
Stu Neatby, "UPDATED: Charlottetown's Deacon House relocates to Smith Lodge," Saltwater, June 28, 2021,
https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/updated-charlottetowns-deacon-house-relocates-to-smith-lodge-100605306/.
According to a separate report (CBC News, “Smith Lodge set to open 9 transitional housing beds by end of year, minister
says,” CBC, November 25, 2020, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-transitional-housing-beds-
legislature-smith-lodge-1.5814850), ultimate plans call for 29 beds at Smith House.
27
Housing Issues
PEIFAH has also argued strongly that short-term rental has contributed to housing challenges in
Charlottetown:
… in April 2019, 1 in 50 private dwellings in Charlottetown (1.93%) were listed on Airbnb

making us the 2nd highest proportion among Canadian cities. Since 2016, Charlottetown
has had a 200% increase in listings. Over half of those listings are for 2-3 bedroom units,
and 60% of all listings have a host with multiple listings. This makes it clear that short
term rentals are not just home-sharing, but an immense economic incentive to remove
long-term tenants in favour of becoming a commercial property which is destabilizing our
neighbourhoods. The lack of regulatory action has caused listings (and evictions) to climb
rapidly and has allowed our communities to lose the neighbours that made these areas
so great to visit in the first place. 20
Landlords have also complained to us that tenants sub-let their accommodation for short-term rental in
violation of lease arrangements. A representative of one major landlord told us they monitor short-term
rental sites to identify units they own that are being offered for short-term rental, as transitory tenants can
disturb other tenants and may present a more significant risk of damage.
The City of Charlottetown has responded to this concern by investigating the subject of short-term rental
thoroughly and modelling the effects of shifting units from the long-term to the short-term market. 21 The
City held a major public meeting to discuss short-term rentals on May 17, 2021. The well-attended and
lively session may lead to a bylaw or other measures to address the issue.
2.5 HOUSING CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES

Housing issues in Canada are complex. In addition to broad market issues of housing availability and
price, key concerns range from affordability to insecurity to homelessness. Homelessness is, arguably,
the most severe problem. According to Statistics Canada, the homeless can be classified into two groups:
hidden (concealed) homeless, and absolute homeless. The hidden-homeless couch-surf, live in their
cars, or otherwise obtain or create shelter for themselves without owning or renting accommodation. The
absolute homeless live-in shelters or in public areas and have no designated residence. 22
Both groups are difficult to quantify given approaches to data collection that are typically household
based. Statistics Canada has however identified 995 shelters across the country that had a population of
22,190 according to 2016 Census counts. The numbers include residents at shelters who had no fixed
address; shelters for abused women and their children, who generally would have a place of residence
20
PEIFAH, “Protecting communities,” https://peifah.ca/issues-parent/short-term-rentals/
21
City of Charlottetown, “Short-term Rental Process,”
https://www.charlottetown.ca/mayor___council/council_meetings/short_term_rental_process. Data presented by City planners
suggests the repositioning of long-term rental units as short-term units reduced the vacancy from a likely 1.8% in 2019 to the
0.2% rate cited above (see City of Charlottetown, “Short-Term Rentals in Charlottetown,” presentation to City of Charlottetown
Council, March 9, 2020, Slide 15),
https://www.charlottetown.ca/UserFiles/Servers/Server_10500298/File/Mayor%20and%20Council/Council%20Meetings/Counci
l%20STR%20Presentation%20-%20March%209%202020.pdf
22
Sarah McDermott, Adriene Harding, and Jeff Randle, The characteristics of shelter residents, Statistics Canada, April 15, 2019,
p. 3, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/75f0002m/75f0002m2019004-eng.pdf?st=qydQ2Bfo.
28
Housing Issues
from which they would have removed themselves; and shelters providing support such as half-way
houses. 23 The count does not include the hidden homeless and the absolute homeless who do not have
or do not want access to shelters. It suggests an increase in shelter capacity and use relative to estimates
in the frequently cited National Shelter Study of 2012 that “on any given night in Canada [in 2009], an
average of 14,400 shelter beds are in use out of the 15,467 permanent beds available,” although it may
also reflect improved data collection. 24 Overall, advocates for the homeless in Canada estimate between
150,000 and 300,000 people experience homelessness in a typical year. The numbers represent 0.5% to
1.0% of our adult population.
The best available data we have found on homelessness in PEI is the Point in Time counts completed for
Charlottetown and Summerside by the John Howard Society in 2016, 2018, and 2021. The latest one-day
survey identified 147 people “staying in emergency shelters, temporary accommodation and unsheltered
locations, such as sidewalks, parks and other public places” on the day of the count. 25 Table 2-8
compares the profile of homeless individuals captured in all three available surveys. The number of
homeless identified is not available from the 2016 count.
Table 2-8 Homeless Point in Time Counts, Charlottetown and Summerside, 2016,
2018, and 2021
2016 2018
2021 2016 2018 2021
Number Surveyed 82 86 59 Ethnicity
Gender Indigenous 14% 14% 9%
Male 66% 53% 57% Immigrant/Refugee 9% 1% 1%
Female 34% 47% 41% Veterans 2% 6% 1%
Other 0% 0% 2% Accommodation
Number Recorded 118 147
Age Transitional Housing 50% 49% 52%
16-18 yrs 3% 7% 2% Emergency Shelter 8% 15% 18%
19-54 yrs 11% 86% 93% Systems (hospital, jail, etc.) 19% 13% 13%
55 yrs + 11% 7% 5% Hidden Homeless (staying with 23% 23% 23%
friend, couch surfing, etc.)
Factors contributing to homelessness
52% of participants that completed the survey indicated issues with addictions and mental health
19% experienced domestic violence
17% indicated they had landlord/tenant issues
9% had been incarcerated
3% indicated they lack sufficient income and/or could not find suitable housing
Source The John Howard Society
23
Loc cit.
24
Aaron Segaert, The National Shelter Study: Emergency Shelter Use in Canada, 2005-2009, Homelessness Partnering
Secretariat, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, 2012, p. iii.
25
For information on the 2021 count see: Stu Neatby, "Homelessness is on the rise in P.E.I.: 'We've got to look out for each
other'," Saltwire, November 15, 2021, https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/homelessness-is-on-the-rise-in-pei-weve-
got-to-look-out-for-each-other-100658328/. The 2018 report, which includes the 2016 results, can be access through The John
Howard Society, “Prince Edward Island 2018 PiT Count Executive Summary Report,”
https://www.homelesshub.ca/resource/prince-edward-island-2018-pit-count-executive-summary-report.
29
Housing Issues
While the number of homeless counted is small, the 2018 report states the count represents “the
minimum number of people experiencing unsheltered and sheltered homelessness in [Charlottetown and
Summerside]. As well, shelters are limited in PEI and the plight of homeless individuals is often serious.
Most have low incomes, and many suffer from mental and physical challenges, as well as domestic
violence. Some also indicated they have been impacted by the high cost of rent and the quality of
available accommodation (Table 2-8, above).
The rise in home prices and Figure 2-11 Average Home Price (June) and Average
rents on PEI and in the Owner Household Income, PEI, 2012-2020
Charlottetown region, of course,
$336,767
$400,000
has implications for the wider
population. As noted above, $350,000
$261,154
affordability is measured by the
$240,568
number of households required $300,000
$218,800
$209,633
$207,336
to spend more than 30% of their
$250,000
annual income on housing
$163,170
$152,415
$150,225
$145,801
whether it is owned or rented. $200,000

Unfortunately, the specific
measure is only available for the $150,000
Charlottetown region for census
years, the most recent of which $100,000
$100,100
was 2016 and more current
$89,700
$92,900
$95,600
$93,700
$91,900
$97,900
$98,100
$50,000
annual data for PEI CAs from
CMHC, which we presented in
$0
Figure 2-2, above, is relatively 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
unreliable. To assess annual
Average Home Price (June) Owner Household Income
change, we compared home
prices in PEI to homeowner Average Owner Home
household income since 2012. Home Annual Household Annual Price as %
Over the period to 2019, the Year Price* Change Income** Change of Income
average price of a home 2011 $92,300 8.5%
2012 $152,415 $89,700 -2.8% 169.9%
purchased in June rose 57.8%
2013 $145,801 -4.3% $92,900 3.6% 156.9%
while the average income of
2014 $150,225 3.0% $95,600 2.9% 157.1%
Island homeowners increased
2015 $163,170 8.6% $93,700 -2.0% 174.1%
by just 9.4%. As a result, the
2016 $207,336 27.1% $91,900 -1.9% 225.6%
cost of a home in PEI rose from 2017 $218,800 5.5% $97,900 6.5% 223.5%
169.9% of a typical 2018 $209,633 -4.2% $100,100 2.2% 209.4%
homeowner’s annual income to 2019 $240,568 14.8% $98,100 -2.0% 245.2%
245.2%, an increase of 44.3% 2020 $261,154 8.6%
(Figure 2-11). Prices, 2021 $336,767 29.0%
furthermore, have continued to Source * PEI Real Estate Association, ** Statistics Canada, calculations by
Stantec
rise with a particularly
30
Housing Issues
pronounced increase in Figure 2-12 Average Rent and Average Renter Household
2021 (29.0%). While Income, PEI, 2006-2020
owner household income
$53,300
$50,700
$52,200
$50,200
$50,000
$49,800
$49,700
$60,000
$47,700
$46,200
data is not yet available
$45,100
$44,900
$44,600
$43,200
$42,700
for 2020 or 2021, it will $50,000
have to increase to the
very unlikely level of
$40,000
$137,329 to maintain the
1:2.45 ratio between
$30,000
income and price that
prevailed in 2019. In July
$20,000
2021, average home
prices recorded by the
$10,212
$10,524
$10,800
$11,292
$10,000
$7,296
$7,428
$7,740
$8,076
$8,220
$8,568
$9,060
$9,168
$9,408
$9,480
$9,864
PEI Real Estate
Association peaked at
0
$0
$368,209, which would
require an annual
household income of Average Renter Household Income Annual Average Rent
$150,150, to maintain the
cost/price relationship of Monthly Annual Renter
2019, which already Average Average % Household % 12-month Rent
Year Rent* Rent Change Income** Change (% of Income)
reflected a substantial 2006 $608 $7,296 2.9% $42,700 5.6% 17.1%
escalation in housing 2007 $619 $7,428 1.8% $45,100 11.3% 16.5%
costs from 2012. 2008 $645 $7,740 4.2% $50,200 -1.0% 15.4%
2009 $673 $8,076 4.3% $49,700 -4.0% 16.2%
2010 $685 $8,220 1.8% $47,700 -6.5% 17.2%
Renter household
2011 $714 $8,568 4.2% $44,600 0.7% 19.2%
incomes, which are
2012 $755 $9,060 5.7% $44,900 2.9% 20.2%
significantly lower than
2013 $764 $9,168 1.2% $46,200 -6.5% 19.8%
homeowner incomes, 2014 $784 $9,408 2.6% $43,200 15.3% 21.8%
have likewise not kept up 2015 $790 $9,480 0.8% $49,800 7.0% 19.0%
with rent increases. As 2016 $822 $9,864 4.1% $53,300 18.5%
-4.9%
shown in Figure 2-12, the 2017 $851 $10,212 3.5% $50,700 -1.4% 20.1%
proportion of average 2018 $877 $10,524 3.1% $50,000 4.4% 21.0%
rents (see Figure 2-8, 2019 $900 $10,800 2.6% $52,200 5.6% 20.7%
above, but note rents in 2020 $941 $11,292 4.6%
Figure 2-12 are nominal Source * CMHC, ** Statistics Canada, calculations by Stantec
values not constant dollars) to average renter household income in PEI has fluctuated since 2006, but,
overall, has risen significantly. Whereas annual rent has constituted as little as 15.4% of the average
renter’s income in the past (2008), it was 20.7% in 2019 and has been as high as 21.8% (2014). The
current share of average income required to cover typical rents is 10.2% higher than the average over the
2006 to 2019 period and 34.2% more than the lowest proportion recorded over the period (i.e., in 2008).
Income data is not available for 2020 yet, but average annual rent recorded suggests that renter incomes
31
Housing Issues
will have to increase to $54,578 to keep pace with the 2020 rent increase and would have to reach
$60,135 to restore the average income requirement of renters over the period, which was 18.8%. These
stresses are probably more significant in the Capital Region municipalities where rental market supply
pressures have been greater than in other Island communities.
A further problem with dimensions of both homelessness and affordability is accessibility in terms of both
geographic location and housing type. A significant group of homeowners and renters deal with
affordability challenges by locating farther from the urban centre where land and accommodation are
typically cheaper. The decision, however, is often a conscious or unconscious trade-off with
transportation costs. While a home may be significantly cheaper in an outlying area, residents usually
must own a car and have to commute much farther to work, as well as, to other regular destinations (e.g.,
schools, shopping, socializing) replacing their accommodation costs with similar or, sometimes, greater
transportation costs. 26
Others may not be able to obtain the housing type they prefer, leading to overspending for amenities that
they do not need or denial of features they would prefer. Traditionally, Canadians have aspired to single-
detached housing, but many have been unable to reach their goal. Most often this is tied to affordability
issues, but it may also be influenced by narrow concepts of single-detached housing, which focus on
providing three or more bedrooms when an increasing proportion of the population needs only one or two.
The development of tiny homes is, in some respects, a response to this issue as well as a demonstration
that adequate accommodation can be provided in much smaller spaces with attention to effective design.
From another direction, deficient supply of rental accommodation in homes and multiple-unit buildings, or
lack of condominium units or seniors units can force some households to spend more than they need to
on housing or put them in housing that imposes maintenance or other responsibilities that are difficult for
residents to manage. This issue is especially relevant to the age groups at either end of the household
forming cycle: young adults who lack the capital to make a down payment to purchase a home or may not
yet be ready for the responsibility or commitment of homeownership and the elderly who may find the
challenges of maintenance difficult or distracting, or who may value the services and security available in
rental or condominium accommodations, or specialized residences. In all cases, the issue is “fit” or the
challenge of providing households with accommodation tailored to their desires, needs, and means.
26
The Center for Neighborhood Technology (CNT) has developed a housing and transportation (H+T©) affordability index that
amply demonstrates the influence of transportation costs relative to housing (https://htaindex.cnt.org/map/). While the site only
covers the United States, users can easily compare municipalities across the country in terms of the relative influence of
transportation and housing costs of average household budgets. Notably, in many lower cost American housing markets (e.g.,
slower growing northeastern and mid-western centres like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh), transportation costs exceed housing
costs. Applying a 45% affordability index for the combined share of household income consumed by housing and
transportation costs, CNT demonstrates that only isolated pockets in the US actually provide affordable housing
(https://htaindex.cnt.org/compare-affordability/).
32
Housing Issues
A variety of explanations are offered for affordability challenges. Some are definitely influenced by
political viewpoints, but most have at least some grains of truth. The following are commonly presented:
• Planning Policies/Controls – A variety of planning initiatives have been accused of driving up

home prices and rents:
o Bureaucracy – At its most basic level, municipal planning imposes an approval process
that takes time and ay delay the delivery of housing. Time also adds to carrying costs and
can be significantly extended when applications run into complications because they deal
with awkward properties, innovative ideas, and/or meet public resistance.
o Urban Sprawl – Planning regulation and related public policies such as highway building
have supported the dispersion of housing with impacts on public costs for service
networks and facilities development, and private costs for transportation while reducing
access to housing for those segments of the population whose mobility is limited by
physical disability/infirmity and insufficient income.
o Neighbourhood Protection – Another set of planning measures has sought to stabilize or

preserve traditional urban environments by excluding denser building types and
discouraging commercial development in close proximity. These policies have made it
difficult to build rental accommodation, particularly in mature neighbourhoods where
facilities are more easily accessed on foot and transit is usually more available.
o Intensification – More recent initiatives aimed at countering the consequences of the first
two approaches have encouraged denser housing in inner urban areas destroying
smaller scale affordable units and pushing out long-term residents. New market-
generated units are typically higher priced reflecting higher land costs, higher
development costs in tighter building environments, competition for available units and
increasing demand for inner city living among a growing portion of the population.
The university-level planning textbook Planning Canadian Communities captures the situation
well:
At this juncture, there is not much point in arguing over labels or playing the
blame game. In the 21st century, policy-makers at most levels of government
have been trying to change the direction of metropolitan growth because of
concerns about environmental sustainability, energy efficiency, transportation
issues, and a lack of fit between our housing stock and demographic changes
that are rushing forward with the aging of the baby boom generation. But the
financial and regulatory edifice that underpins conventional suburban
development has proven remarkably difficult to modify and the accumulated
momentum of a half-century of suburban development means that most of the
building stock that is available for the next generation is already constructed. In
33
Housing Issues
nautical terms, we must turn the direction of a large, slow-moving ship using
sticky steering gear. 27
Not only is it difficult to turn the ship around, but it is also challenging to find a new course that
does not raise new problems.
• Financialization – The term “financialization” refers to the growing tendency to view housing as a
vehicle for investment rather than human shelter. The phenomenon has been a factor in
residential real estate since the invention of mortgages but has recently received increased
emphasis. It is reflected in a variety of trends that influence different segments of the housing
market but which collectively, in the opinion of at least some, reduce housing supply, while
increasing price:
o Homeownership – Owning one’s own home has long been a favoured financial strategy.
Homeowners accumulate wealth in their home as they pay down their mortgages and as
historic price inflation increases the nominal value of real estate. In Canada, furthermore,
the profit is exempt from capital gains taxation. It is also exempt in the US, in addition to
mortgage interest being tax deductible. While it is arguable that a house is more
comparable to a piggy bank than an interest-bearing account in a real bank, given higher
long-term stock market gains, the simplicity of investment in homeownership combined
with the positive experience of past generations has made it a leading financial strategy
for working- and middle-class Canadians.
o Property Investment – Many of the features that favour homeownership make investment
in rental property advantageous. While rental properties do not enjoy the tax benefits
available for a primary residence, the skills required to acquire and manage rental
buildings are similar. Owner-occupants of duplexes and small apartment buildings can, in
fact, draw income from their home at the same time as they pay for it. Investors in
separate rental properties can draw rents to pay for financing and operating costs and,
dependent on their energy and willingness to carry debt, can build substantial portfolios
and stores of considerable wealth that generate steady income.
o Short-term Rental – Housing was one of the first areas influenced by the sharing
economy. The founding of Airbnb created a platform for homeowners and landlords to
generate or increase income through short-term rentals. While Airbnb and similar
companies promoting short-term rentals online have been praised for increasing the
supply, variety, and affordability of accommodation for travelers, the shift to short-term
rentals has been criticized for eroding the supply of long-term rental units and disrupting
residential neighbourhoods, particularly in urban areas.
27
Gerald Hodge, David L A Gordon, and Pamela Shaw, Planning Canadian communities: an introduction to the principles,
practice, and participants in the 21st century, Seventh edition, Toronto: Nelson, 2020, p. 285.
34
Housing Issues
o Foreign Investment – Canada and a select group of western countries are seen as a safe
and productive haven by investors from less stable regions of the world. According to
critics, wealthy foreign investors park money in Canadian real estate with minimal interest
in immediate returns. They are accused of bidding up housing markets such as
Vancouver’s while creating or acquiring units that they keep vacant. The Province of
British Columbia has a Speculation and Vacancy Tax, and the City of Vancouver has an
Empty Home Tax Bylaw that were both adopted to discourage this practice. Other
municipal jurisdictions in Canada have considered similar measures.
o Mortgage-backed Securities – Mortgage-backed securities were created in the 1980s by

bundling portfolios of mortgages. These portfolios distributed the risk of multiple
mortgages. They were sold to investors in the form of bonds or investment instruments
on secondary bond markets. Critics contend they eroded the one-to-one relationship
between lender and borrower that previously characterized mortgage markets. By
superficially diluting the risk of lending, they encouraged dodgier loans that were a
significant factor in the 2008 financial collapse.
o Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) – REITs are companies that own and usually
operate real estate to generate income. Two REITs with large positions in the
Charlottetown market are Killam and CAP REIT. The two, between them, own 1,102
rental units, according to a recent compilation by City of Charlottetown staff. 28 Their 943
apartment units constitute roughly 15% of all units in multi-unit apartment structures in
the city.
The REIT concept apparently originated because of tax legislation adopted in the US in
1960 29 but took hold in Canada when governments allowed them to restructure as trusts
and trade on open markets in 1993. 30 Residential REITs are property investors on
steroids. They sell shares to investors and use the proceeds to acquire large numbers of
properties. A large proportion of the net income from these properties (85% to 95%) must
be distributed to investors. Critics accuse REITs of applying similar approaches to foreign
investors: buying property and upgrading it for long-term gain, leading them to withhold
units from the market.
• Public Housing – The Federal Government once had a major role in housing development in
Canada. It largely stepped away from the direct provision of public or social housing in the 1990s.
Other than programs for aboriginal groups, the national government stopped funding social
housing in 1993 and, in 1995, transferred the management of existing social housing to the
28
Robert Zilke, City of Charlottetown, “Inventory of REITs in Charlottetown/Stratford,” email to John Heseltine, Stantec Consulting
Limited, May 13, 2022.
29
James Chen, “Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT),” Updated October 13, 2019, Investopedia,
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reit.asp
30
Danielle Kubes, “What you need to know about REITs,” December 1, 2019, Money Sense,
https://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/what-you-need-to-know-about-reits/
35
Housing Issues
provinces. Provincial initiatives to add to the stock of social housing have since been modest. A
vocal group of analysts have criticized the withdrawal of government from housing provision
arguing that it is the only means to ensure adequate provision of shelter to lower income
Canadians.
The impacts of each of the foregoing factors are difficult to define and subject to considerable debate.
Planning trends have swung from one extreme to the other. Financialization, superficially, has brought
significantly increased investment in real estate, but critics contend that it has increased the focus on the
upper end of the market and, ironically, encourages investors to withhold many units from the market to
support higher rents and sale prices. While public housing directly addresses the needs of the
disadvantaged, it has a checkered history from a time when it accompanied planning efforts to clear
slums that displaced many traditional residents and spawned blocks of depressing apartments and
rowhouses. The Federal government’s withdrawal from direct involvement in housing responded to
widespread dissatisfaction with the results. The reluctance of provinces to take up the slack is influenced
by similar experience and concerns.
A variety of additional trends are influencing the housing market with good and bad consequences for
housing consumers. In addition to the rise of remote work, short-term rentals, and urban intensification
mentioned above, the following may influence housing needs and solutions in the coming decades:
• Build to Rent Single-detached Homes – In face of the challenges of accumulating a down

payment in the current high-priced housing market, some developers in select North American
communities are building single-detached subdivisions specifically for tenants. Rental appeals to
the younger demographic that may need or want to move easily as well as to older age cohorts
who still want space and privacy but may wish to avoid maintenance responsibilities either to be
free for vacations or because of physical limitations.
Rental of single-detached homes is well-established in any case. According to the 2016 Census,
single-detached buildings constituted 20.1% of all rental units in PEI. They are particularly well-
suited to accommodating families, a group that often finds suitable rental units difficult to find.
• Missing Middle – Many housing observers have decried the decline of housing types such as
duplexes, fourplexes, cottage courts, and multiplexes that were once common but have fallen
from favour because of barriers created by zoning regulations and general stigmatization. These
building types are however ideal for infill as they can be built at a scale compatible with single-
detached homes. Triplexes and fourplexes are particularly notable as they make efficient use of
land and can be managed by private investors but are often dealt with as equivalent to much
larger apartment structures in zoning bylaws.
• Secondary Suites – Secondary suites or additional units in single-detached homes have

considerable potential to increase urban density with moderate impacts. They may be built as
internal renovations to existing homes, through conversion of a basement, attic, or other under-
utilized space, or added as accessory structures as “garden suites” in available yard areas. They
often encounter resistance from nearby homeowners concerned that the presence of renters
36
Housing Issues
diminishes property value and both dwelling units may eventually become fully rented. Parking
and storage are also frequently cited as concerns.
To avoid this, some municipalities, including Cornwall in the Capital Region, only allow
secondary suites to be occupied by individuals related to the owner. Such restrictions, however,
limit the potential for secondary suites to address rental supply issues. In Stratford, which does
not limit the suites to family members, Town Planning staff have stated that many larger new
homes include secondary suites as part of their design.
• Tiny Homes – Small single-detached or, potentially two-unit structures, with internal floor areas
of as little as 100 square feet have attracted a variety of adherents. They can be built for less
than $100,000 in most cases and some claim do-it-yourself projects can cost as little as $10,000
to $15,000. They have generally been built in isolated locations. Zoning regulations in the
Charlottetown area present no barriers to their construction of which we are aware (i.e.,
minimum building areas), although planning staff have indicated building code requirements may
restrict their construction. Tiny home subdivisions are underway in some North American
communities. The building style is also well-suited to use as secondary suites on lots with
conventional single-detached homes.
• Affordable Housing Incentives – Many municipalities are pursuing a variety of initiatives to

encourage the development of affordable housing units. Incentives can be realized through
direct support to developers building units at a specified price level or through zoning regulations
that relax restrictions such as height and lot coverage restrictions where affordable units are
incorporated in a development. A very common approach is to allow additional height for
buildings incorporating affordable units. Halifax Regional Municipality has used this approach but
instead of expecting the affordable units to be part of the proposed high-rise has required
contribution to an affordable housing fund recognizing that meeting ongoing affordability
standards can be difficult if the development is under private management.
• Co-operatives – In a housing cooperative, a residential building or buildings are jointly or

corporately owned by housing occupants who are members for the corporation. According to the
Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada, more than a quarter million Canadians live in co-op
developments (Table 2-9). The Federal Table 2-9 Housing Co-ops, Canada
government offered significant incentives for
Number Number
co-operative housing during the 1970s and Region of Co-ops of Units
1980s when 82,500 co-op units were created. British Columbia 275 15,784
Cutbacks in the mid-1990s terminated many Prairies 129 6,739
co-op projects under development at the time. Ontario 551 44,181
The approach has only recently been revived Quebec 1,130 22,501
as a component of the National Housing Atlantic Provinces 122 3,164
Strategy, which includes grants and loans to Territories 5 162
finance the construction of new co-op housing TOTAL 2,212 92,526
and continues rent-geared-to-income subsidies Source Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada
37
Housing Issues
enabling co-ops to house low-income members. 31 The Co-operative Housing Federation website
indicates PEI has 13 housing co-ops, of which 11 are located in Charlottetown; 32 however, we
have not been able to find a source providing the number of co-op units in the province.
• National Housing Strategy – The National Housing Strategy (NHS) is a ten-year, $40 billion
Federal Government program aimed at alleviating housing challenges in Canada. The program
re-asserts the role of the Government of Canada in housing provision with extensive programs
aimed to increase affordable housing opportunities. Leading initiatives under the program
include:
o National Housing Co-Investment Fund – The Government of Canada will provide

nearly $4.7 billion in financial contributions and $11.2 billion in low interest loans to
attract partnerships with and investments from the provinces and territories,
municipalities, non-profits and co-operatives, and the private sector, to focus on new
construction and the preservation and renewal of the existing affordable housing supply.
The Fund will support more shelter spaces for survivors of family violence, transitional
and supportive housing, new and renewed affordable and community housing, and other
ways of making homeownership more affordable. It includes the Rental Construction
Financing Initiative, through which $2.5 billion will be invested over four years to
encourage the construction of affordable rental housing projects through low-cost loans
to municipalities and housing developers during the most at-risk phases of development.
o Federal Land Initiative – The Federal Government is combining contributions and loans
with the transfer of federal lands to community and affordable housing providers. Under
the NHS, up to $200 million in federal lands will be transferred to housing providers to
encourage the development of sustainable, accessible, mixed-income, mixed-use
developments and communities. Starting in 2018-19, the initiative has funded
renovations or retrofits and environmental remediation to ensure surplus federal
buildings are suitable for use as housing.
o Canada Community Housing Initiative – The Federal Government will provide $4.3
billion to be cost-matched by participating provinces and territories to protect the
affordability of provincial and territorial community housing development. The program
will support repair and renewal of the existing community housing supply, which
provinces and territories are required to retain if they receive program funds and will
assist provinces and territories to expand community-based housing provisions. It is
complemented by the $500-million Federal Community Housing Initiative, which provides
funds to support and maintain federally administered community housing.
31
Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada, “History of Co-op Housing,” https://chfcanada.coop/about-co-op-housing/history-
of-co-op-housing/
32
Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada, “Find a Co-op,” https://chfcanada.coop/about-co-op-housing/find-a-co-op/
38
Housing Issues
o Canada Housing Benefit – The federal government will partner with provinces and
territories to develop a $4-billion Canada Housing Benefit. Designed to meet local needs
and delivered by provinces and territories, the Canada Housing Benefit will be a new tool
to fight the challenge of housing affordability. The Government estimates that the
Canada Housing Benefit will deliver an average of $2,500 per year to at least 300,000
households across the country.
o National Housing Strategy Research Agenda – The Research Agenda will provide
$241 million to fund researchers and build research capacity inside and outside of
government. The initiative is also committed to developing a comprehensive housing
database that integrates social, economic, and financial information to produce official
housing statistics through Statistics Canada, and to open access to available housing
data.
The NHS also includes changes to tax laws and mortgage loan insurance to facilitate attainment
of its objectives. CMHC administers program expenditures related to housing affordability, while
Employment and Social Development Canada handles transfers to communities and service
providers targeting homelessness.
The NHS provides many opportunities for funding support for a very wide range of participants in
the housing sector from private sector developers to provincial and local governments, and non-
profit organizations to homeowners and tenants.
• Provincial Housing Action Plan – The Province’s Housing Action Plan commits to substantial
housing initiatives over the period from 2018 through 2023 including construction of 1,000 new
affordable units, a minimum of 74 social housing units for seniors, 10 units for victims of family
violence, 100 new private nursing home beds, 10 transitional housing units for individuals with
mental health needs, and a $3-million Community Housing Fund to support additional housing
solutions. 33 The Action Plan also calls for the formation of a Cabinet Committee on Housing to
be supported by a Housing Council. The work of the Committee and Council, furthermore, are to
be supported by the development of a “Housing Hub,” which is envisioned as a source of
information on housing conditions and needs. 34
The Province’s Progress Report on the Action Plan produced in 2020 states the Provincial
Government had produced 372 affordable housing units to that point (146 in Charlottetown, 30 in
Cornwall, and 30 in Stratford), all 76 seniors units (44 in Charlottetown), 20 units for victims of
family violence, 50 nursing home beds, and the 10 promised transitional housing units. 35 The
33
Prince Edward Island, Housing Action Plan for Prince Edward Island, 2018-2023, p. 8.
34
Ibid., pp. 12-14.
35
Prince Edward Island, Housing Action Plan for Prince Edward Island, 2018-2023 – Progress Report, undated, p. 6.
39
Housing Issues
Cabinet Committee and Housing Council were established in the first year of the plan, as was
the proposed Housing Hub. 36 Access to Housing Hub data, however, appears to be limited.
• Charlottetown Affordable Housing Incentive Program – In 2018, the City of Charlottetown

adopted a program to encourage the development of “affordable and accessible housing
stock.” 37 The Vision guiding the program called for increased housing for vulnerable populations
blended throughout the city through development of partnerships, provision of financial
incentives, and intensification of residential development, particularly through redevelopment of
the upper floors of commercial structures in the downtown.
The program is available to organizations and individuals providing “new affordable housing
opportunities.” Recommended measures include assessing short-term rentals as commercial uses for the
period of the year that they are commercially rented, supporting and encouraging accessory/auxiliary
suites and upper floor development in commercial structures, reducing parking requirements for multi-unit
construction, increased density bonuses for incorporation of affordable units, smaller lot sizes to
accommodate tiny homes, a variety of tax incentives for affordable and specialized units, a potential
Zoning Bylaw amendment to specify a percentage of affordable housing to be provided in the city, and
transfer of surplus City-owned land to developers of social housing through RFP. The program also
includes organization measures including the establishment of an Affordable Housing Advisory
Committee and creation of a Housing Action Plan in collaboration with the Province of PEI. The
Committee has been established and meets regularly and a Provincial Housing Action Plan is in place as
described in the preceding bullet point.
36
Ibid., pp. 19-20.
37
City of Charlottetown, “Affordable Housing Incentive Program,” approved September 10, 2018, p. 1.
40
3.0 ECONOMIC PROFILE
Economic growth has traditionally been the primary cause for increasing population. The availability of
work is the leading motivator for international and domestic migration, although education opportunities,
family connections, lower living costs, and other factors can also have an important role. The economy
can also have an influence on births by creating the income and security needed to support children. It
can even influence death rates to the extent that increased income and activity are positive for health and
longevity.
3.1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

The most widely used measure of economic growth is gross domestic product (GDP). Figure 3-1
compares total GDP in constant or chained 2012 Canadian dollars for Canada and PEI from 2001 to
2021 indexed to 2001 to show the relative change between the two over the period. Over the 20 years
portrayed, the PEI economy has grown more than Canada’s (43.8% versus 35.7%). The Island outpaced
the country from 2001 to 2006 but fell back in 2007 and 2008. Its growth moved ahead again in 2009 and
stayed there until 2013 when it again fell behind until 2017. From 2016, the Island’s economic growth has
exceeded Canada’s each year with a notable surge in 2019 followed by decline for both in 2020.
Figure 3-1 Growth in GDP, Canada and PEI, 2001-2020 (Chained 2012$)
160.0%
146.3%
143.8%
143.2%
150.0%
140.5%
139.8%
137.4%
136.8%
135.7%
132.7%
140.0%
131.4%
131.3%
130.5%
128.5%
126.9%
126.7%
126.6%
124.4%
124.0%
123.1%
130.0%
121.9%
120.5%
118.2%
118.1%
118.1%
117.7%
117.2%
116.9%
116.4%
114.6%
114.5%
114.1%
120.0%
111.6%
110.3%
108.1%
106.8%
104.9%
104.8%
103.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Canada Prince Edward Island
Source Statistics Canada, Table: 36-10-0222-01
41
Economic Profile
3.2 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE

The underlying reasons for economic growth are normally found in the structure of the economy, by which
we mean the distribution of economic activity across defined economic sectors. If a provincial or local
economy is focused on economic sectors that are growing, it can normally be expected to have
increasing job numbers. It may also experience growth because of local features that attract growth such
as climate or amenities that draw investment and people. An area may also grow because of unique
features such as a locally based company or companies that are particularly innovative or well-managed
and outperform their economic sector, supportive government policy or tax benefits, or an attractive local
market.
The framework for examining economic structure is provided by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS), which was jointly developed by the statistical agencies of Canada, the
United States, and Mexico. The system divides the economy into a hierarchy of carefully defined
economic sectors ranging from resource industries through manufacturing to retailing, education, and
administration. As illustrated in Figure 3-2, the leading economic sectors in PEI are, in order by their
2020 employment: Health Care and Social Assistance; Wholesale and Retail Trade; and Public
Administration. All three increased job numbers between 2011 and 2020. The only sectors in which
employment declined significantly on the Island were Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas;
Business, Building and Support Services; and Accommodation and Food Services.
To assess the causes and influences of economic structure, we applied a technique called shift-share
analysis. The method isolates the influences of national economic growth and sectoral growth, so as to
better understand the influence of the region itself on local employment change. It recognizes that local
employment is, first, influenced by the national economy. If Canada’s economy is growing, we would
expect, all things being equal, that PEI’s economy would grow to a similar degree.
The technique also recognizes that growth will be influenced by the local economic profile given that not
all economic sectors necessarily grow at the same pace. An economy heavily dependent on agriculture,
which PEI once was, can be expected to struggle as the sector has shed employment over the long-term.
An economy, with a large role in health care, such as PEI, will tend to grow as the sector has recently
been the fastest growing in the country.
The shift-share method calculates the expected influence of the first effect (National Share) by applying
the overall national employment growth rate, which was 4.9% between 2011 and 2020, to local
employment in each sector. It then estimates the second factor (Industry Mix) by multiplying the original
employment in each sector by the difference between national growth in that sector and overall national
employment growth rate. The model assumes that the balance of growth that is not attributable to the
specialization in particular sectors or difference between local and national growth in each sector is
attributable to special features of the region that either stimulated more growth than expected or
discouraged it (Regional Shift).
42
Economic Profile
Figure 3-2 Industry by NAICS Code, PEI, 2011-2020
Public administration 7.5

8.2
Other services (except public administration) 3.2
3.1
Accommodation and food services 5.6
4.1
Information, culture and recreation 2.4
2.0
Health care and social assistance 8.9
11.0
Educational services 6.3
5.6
Business, building and other support services 2.5
2.1
Professional, scientific and technical services 3.0
4.2
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 2.5
2.9
Transportation and warehousing 2.2
2.7
Wholesale and retail trade 10.5
10.5
Manufacturing 4.8
6.3
Construction 5.4
6.6
Utilities 0.2
0.2
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 3.2
2.1
Agriculture 3.7
4.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
2011 2020
Source Statistics Canada, Table: 36-10-0222-01
If we take the Island’s fastest growing sector, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, as an
example, the National Share is the product of PEI’s 2011 employment in the sector in thousands (3.0)
and the 4.9% rate of national employment growth or 146 (0.146 thousand in Figure 3-3). The Industry
Mix effect is calculated by subtracting the 4.9% national growth rate from the Professional, Scientific and
Technical Services sector growth rate (22.9%) and applying the difference (18.0%) to the 3,000
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services employees on the Island in 2011 to get 541 (0.541). The
third and final factor – the Regional Shift – is the product of the 3,000 Professional, Scientific and
Technical Services jobs in 2011 multiplied by the difference between growth in the sector in PEI (40.0%)
and the 22.9% growth in the sector across Canada (17.1%) to get 513 (0.513). The three numbers added
together (0.146, 0.541, and 0.513) equal the actual change in Professional, Scientific and Technical
Services employment in the province over the 2011 to 2020 period (i.e., 1,200 jobs, which equates to 1.2
thousand shown in the table with Figure 3-3).
43
Economic Profile
Figure 3-3 Shift-Share Breakdown, PEI, 2011-2020
1.679
2.000
1.110
0.864
1.500
0.638
0.626
0.557
0.541
0.513
0.511
0.433
0.365
0.307
0.296
0.273
0.263
0.255
0.237
0.234
1.000
0.180
0.156
0.155
0.156
0.146
0.122
0.122
0.117
0.107
0.073
0.052
0.039
0.023
0.500 0.010
0.000 -0.001
-0.009
-0.093
-0.110
-0.125
-0.500
-0.308
-0.391
-0.401
-0.413
-0.428
-0.468
-0.506
-0.517
-1.000
-0.787
-1.500
-1.256
-1.644
-2.000
National Share Industry Mix Regional Shift
Change, 2011-2020
Number National Industry Regional
NAICS Sector (,000s) % Share Mix Shift
Total employed, all industries 3.9 5.4%
Agriculture 0.3 8.1% 0.180 -0.506 0.626
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas -1.1 -34.4% 0.156 -0.468 -0.787
Utilities 0.0 0.0% 0.010 -0.009 -0.001
Construction 1.2 22.2% 0.263 0.073 0.864
Manufacturing 1.5 31.3% 0.234 -0.413 1.679
Wholesale and retail trade 0.0 0.0% 0.511 -0.401 -0.110
Transportation and warehousing 0.5 22.7% 0.107 0.155 0.237
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and
0.4 16.0% 0.122 0.255 0.023
leasing
Professional, scientific and technical services 1.2 40.0% 0.146 0.541 0.513
Business, building and other support services -0.4 -16.0% 0.122 -0.093 -0.428
Educational services -0.7 -11.1% 0.307 0.638 -1.644
Health care and social assistance 2.1 23.6% 0.433 1.110 0.557
Information, culture and recreation -0.4 -16.7% 0.117 -0.391 -0.125
Accommodation and food services -1.5 -26.8% 0.273 -1.256 -0.517
Other services (except public administration) -0.1 -3.1% 0.156 -0.308 0.052
Public administration 0.7 9.3% 0.365 0.296 0.039
Broad Sectors
Primary (agriculture, fishing, forestry & mining) 1.1 4.5% 1.178 -2.014 1.935
Secondary (utilities, construction &
2.7 26.0% 0.506 -0.349 2.542
manufacturing)
Tertiary (services) 2.0 3.7% 2.659 0.929 -1.587
Source Statistics Canada 2011 and 2020. Shift-share calculations by Stantec
44
Economic Profile
The result can be interpreted to mean that we should have expected PEI to gain 687 Professional,
scientific and technical services jobs, but the province added 513 more than anticipated because of
particular attractions it had to employers in the sector during that period. The results may also reflect the
reverse, as in the case of the Educational Services sector from which PEI lost approximately 700 jobs.
Overall national employment growth justifies an expected addition of 307 jobs, while national growth in
the sector, which grew 15.0% over the period, suggests another 638. Special features of PEI, however,
accounted for 1,644 lost positions and an overall decrease of 700 jobs in the sector.
Interestingly, PEI’s most significant gains over the past decade were in secondary industries, most
notably Manufacturing, which is generally considered to be in decline as exemplified by the loss of 48,900
(2.8%) jobs from the sector Canada-wide from 2011 to 2020. Employment in manufacturing on the Island,
however, increased from 4,800 to 6,300 (1,500 jobs or a 31.3% increase). Growth was also strong in the
Island’s Construction industry (24.1%), although that trend aligns with positive sectoral growth across
Canada (6.2%).
NAICS data is not available by job location for census subdivisions, which are too numerous to assess for
this study, in any case, or for the Charlottetown CA. Statistics Canada does however provide data for
CMAs and CAs by province, which is the combination of the Charlottetown and Summerside CAs in PEI.
The two CAs essentially represent urban PEI as the largest community that they do not cover is the
former Town of Montague, which had a 2016 Census population of 1,961, although it has since been
absorbed into the new and much larger Town of Three Rivers.
As urban locations, the economies of the Charlottetown and Summerside areas might be expected to
differ significantly from PEI as a whole. Another way of assessing the economy related to shift-share
analysis is through location quotients, which are measures of the degree to which employment in a sector
is over or under-represented in a region. Location quotients are simply the result of dividing the
percentage of the labour force in an industry in a region by the percentage in the same industry
nationally. The location quotient for manufacturing for PEI, for example, is the result of dividing the
percentage of PEI’s employment found in the manufacturing sector (8.74%) by its proportion in the
national economy (9.29%), which is 0.940. The result suggests that despite its recent growth in
manufacturing jobs, PEI is not specialized in the sector, because it has proportionately fewer
manufacturing jobs than the national average. In sectors in which the share of jobs in the province is
more than at the national level, the location quotient will be more than 1, as in the case of Agriculture and
Accommodation and Food Services, two sectors for which the Island is well known.
Figure 3-4 shows location quotients for NAICS sectors for all of PEI relative to location quotients for the
two CAs. Location quotients over 1 indicating industries in which either area is specialized are bolded.
The differences reflect typical contrasts between rural areas, which are a major portion of the Island’s
economy and urban areas, which the Charlottetown and Summerside CAs exemplify. Both the province
and the CAs, for example, are specialized in agriculture, although the sector is almost exactly twice as
important to the province as a whole (a location quotient of 3.315 versus 1.648). The difference is much
more pronounced for forestry and mining, which are even more clearly rural and roughly five times more
important at the provincial level than within the CAs. Where the CAs differ the most are Transportation
and Warehousing; Educational Services; Health Care and Social Assistance; Accommodation and Food
45
Economic Profile
Services; and Public Administration. The CAs are specialized in each of the foregoing sectors, and their
degree of specialization, indicated by a larger location quotient, is higher than for the Island as a whole.
Overall, the CAs are specialized in the primary industries but much less than the rest of PEI. They are, on
the other hand, more specialized in the tertiary or service sectors relative to both Canada and the Island.
Figure 3-4 Location Quotients, PEI and PEI CAs, 2020

3.276
3.500
3.000
2.145
1.915
2.500
1.607
1.604
1.269
2.000
1.144
1.118
1.089
1.060
1.059
1.046
1.019
1.002
1.000
0.953
0.940
0.877
0.861
0.806
0.797
0.758
0.737
1.500
0.668
0.668
0.645
0.642
0.636
0.552
0.487
0.340
1.000
0.000
0.500
0.000
PEI CAs PEI
NAICS Sector PEI PEI CAs

Agriculture 3.276 1.604
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 1.607 0.487
Utilities 0.340 0.000
Construction 1.144 1.060
Manufacturing 0.940 0.737
Wholesale and retail trade 0.953 1.002
Transportation and warehousing 0.642 0.668
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 0.552 0.636
Professional, scientific and technical services 0.645 0.806
Business, building and other support services 0.668 0.797
Educational services 1.000 1.089
Health care and social assistance 1.059 1.118
Information, culture and recreation 0.758 0.877
Accommodation and food services 1.046 1.269
Other services (except public administration) 1.019 0.861
Public administration 1.915 2.145
Broad Sectors
Primary (agriculture, fishing, forestry & mining) 2.402 1.019
Secondary (utilities, construction & manufacturing) 1.002 0.844
Tertiary (services) 0.942 1.031
Source Statistics Canada 2011 and 2020. Location quotients calculated by Stantec
46
Economic Profile
In general, though, the economies of both PEI and its CAs are most notable for their lack of extreme
specialization except for the Agriculture and Public Administration sectors. Recent growth in the CAs has
been strongest in Manufacturing; Transportation and Warehousing; Professional, Scientific and Technical
Services; and Health care and Social Assistance. For the most part, the sectors grew in keeping with
national and sectoral trends. Only Manufacturing and Health Care and Social Assistance were
significantly driven by the Regional Shift factor (Figure 3-5). Overall, though, comparison of the CAs to
the province as a whole suggests moderate differences. The only sector in which the CAs are specialized
by the province is not is Wholesale and retail trade, and the only sectors in which the Province shows
speicalizations that the CAs do not share are Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas and Other
services (except public administration).
3.3 EMPLOYMENT
Notwithstanding recent GDP growth, economic indicators for PEI, like those for other provinces of Atlantic
Canada, have traditionally lagged behind Canada. Figure 3-6 illustrating monthly participation,
unemployment, and employment rates for Canada and PEI since 2001, provides a strong example.
Allowing for regular fluctuations in both rates over the course of a year in which participation tends to fall
in the winter months as unemployment typically rises, labour participation has invariably been higher in
PEI than in Canada as has unemployment. Over the 20-year period, participation has averaged 67.4% on
the Island compared to 66.3% for Canada; however, unemployment has averaged 10.9% as opposed a
national average of 7.1%.
The trend lines for both factors in the figure suggest that PEI rates are converging with national rates to a
small degree, but a pronounced difference has been the norm at most times, particularly in terms of
unemployment, which typically exceeds the national level by three percentage points or more in PEI. Only
in the past few years have rates for PEI approximated Canadian levels, with the onset of the pandemic
sending the national unemployment up to PEI’s level, which was not far from the provincial norm in late
winter/early spring. At that point, the employment rate, which has typically been moderately lower in PEI
than Canada, dove deeply provincially and nationally, reaching record lows within the period shown of
51.5% for Canada and 50.0% for the Island.
Over 2020 and 2021 to date, both participation and unemployment in PEI have been much closer to
nation-wide levels. Whether this will continue after the end of the pandemic remains to be seen.
Employment initially rebounded more strongly in PEI than the rest of Canada but, since late 2020, has
returned to the traditional relationship, with Canada’s employment level two to three percentage points
above PEI’s.
47
Economic Profile
Figure 3-5 Shift-Share Breakdown, PEI CAs, 2011-2020
2.036
2.500
1.110
2.000
0.970
0.616
0.587
1.500
0.574
0.542
0.490
0.474
0.402
0.376
0.339
0.285
0.254
0.253
0.249
0.244
0.217
0.167
0.161
0.145
0.145
0.139
0.136
0.134
0.113
0.113
0.108
0.099
0.086
0.081
1.000
0.033
0.012
0.009
0.500
0.000
-0.001
-0.008
-0.082
-0.500
-0.279
-0.353
-0.390
-0.422
-0.451
-0.457
-0.510
-0.531
-1.000
-0.787
-1.500
-1.231
-1.501
-2.000
National Share Industry Mix Regional Shift
Change, 2011-2020
Employed National Industry Regional
NAICS Sector (,000s) % Share Mix Shift
Total employed, all industries 5.2 12.1%
Agriculture 0.1 9.1% 0.050 -0.152 0.202
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 0.0 0.0% 0.018 -0.057 0.039
Utilities -0.2 -100.0% 0.009 -0.008 -0.201
Construction 1.1 39.3% 0.127 0.045 0.929
Manufacturing 1.2 57.1% 0.095 -0.155 1.260
Wholesale and retail trade 0.3 4.3% 0.312 -0.296 0.284
Transportation and warehousing 0.7 70.0% 0.045 0.073 0.581
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and
0.3 16.7% 0.081 0.183 0.036
leasing
Professional, scientific and technical services 1.0 43.5% 0.104 0.376 0.520
Business, building and other support services -0.3 -16.7% 0.081 -0.059 -0.322
Educational services -0.4 -9.3% 0.194 0.420 -1.015
Health care and social assistance 2.0 37.7% 0.240 0.661 1.099
Information, culture and recreation -0.2 -11.1% 0.081 -0.292 0.011
Accommodation and food services -0.5 -13.5% 0.167 -0.813 0.146
Other services (except public administration) -0.2 -10.5% 0.086 -0.165 -0.120
Public administration 0.2 3.6% 0.249 0.182 -0.231
Broad Sectors
Primary (agriculture, fishing, forestry & mining) 0.1 6.7% 0.068 -0.209 0.241
Secondary (utilities, construction &
2.1 41.2% 0.230 -0.117 1.987
manufacturing)
Tertiary (services) 3.0 8.3% 1.640 0.547 0.813
Source Statistics Canada 2011 and 2020. Shift-share calculations by Stantec
48
Economic Profile
Figure 3-6 Labour Force Participation, Unemployment and Employment (unadjusted),

Canada and PEI, 2001-2021
75.0%
70.0%
% Participation
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
Canada PEI Linear (Canada) Linear (PEI)
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
% Unemployed
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
70.0%
68.0%
66.0%
% Employed
64.0%
62.0%
60.0%
58.0%
56.0%
54.0%
52.0%
50.0%
Source Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0017-01
49
Economic Profile
3.4 OVERVIEW
The economy of PEI has improved significantly over the past 20 years. It has, however, been catching up
with the balance of Canada rather than taking the lead. The structure of the Island economy is not
especially favourable, although it is not a source of weakness either. PEI has generally had a higher rate
of unemployment and lower rate of employment relative to national levels. Only with the advent of
COVID-19 has the Island briefly coincided with national levels for both rates. The short period of
comparable employment rates and unemployment rates has already ended, and the province appears to
be returning to moderately lower levels of employment and higher levels of unemployment than Canada.
Overall, the connection between economic growth in PEI, and the in-migration that has created pressures
on the Island’s housing markets appears to be weak. The Island’s sound economy has made it a more
attractive option for migrants from within Canada in from overseas, but it has not created jobs that of
themselves have attracted newcomers.
The attraction of PEI appears to be its housing market and lifestyle. The recent surge appears to have
resulted from international and domestic immigrants being drawn by lower living costs. Choosing the
Island has been facilitated by the shift to home-based work necessitated by the COVID pandemic, which
is discussed further below. Employers and employees have discovered that remote work is more feasible
than they previously appreciated. Employees freed from the requirement of daily commuting have,
therefore, seized on the opportunity to move to lower cost housing markets in smaller centres and in
Atlantic Canada, which has traditionally offered less expensive housing than most other areas in the
country.
50
4.0 CONSULTATION SUMMARY
To fully understand housing issues that have arisen in the Capital Region, consulting team members
undertook three consultation initiatives: interviews with municipal planners working with our client
municipalities; similar interviews with a broader selection of stakeholders including representatives of
Provincial government departments, real estate professionals, and representatives of organizations
concerned with housing; and three focus groups with developers and builders, affordable housing
advocates and providers, and members of the general public recruited by the consultants.
Interview topics included review of the population and housing estimates presented in following Chapter
6.0, exploration of leading housing concerns, and prioritization of housing issues identified through
background research presented above. Estimates were presented to the focus groups but were not
discussed in depth, although focus group participants were invited to comment. Focus groups were
guided through a series of questions investigating their views on housing issues, the issues they
considered most important, and potential responses to housing concerns. The following sections
summarize the input received through all three initiatives.
4.1 MUNICIPAL PLANNERS

The consultants interviewed municipal staff with the City of Charlottetown, Town of Cornwall, and Town of
Stratford. The interviews were conducted early in Phase 2 of the project and initial questions dealt with
preliminary population and housing estimates that the consultants presented to staff. Input from the staff
interviewed was considered in adjusting the estimates developed in Phase 1. Following questions dealt
with below addressed land supply, challenges to meeting demand, and issues in the rental market.
4.1.1 City of Charlottetown
With the longest history as an urban area, Charlottetown has a more limited land supply than the towns of
Cornwall and Stratford. The planners interviewed noted that much of the core area of the city was
developed at low densities common to suburban small towns. They also noted that the City has enforced
height limits designed to protect the heritage character of the downtown area. Introducing more intensive
development to these areas has been difficult and the City’s planners have consequently looked to
outlying greenfield areas as potential sites for attached housing and apartment development. East
Royalty is the primary potential site and was the subject of a secondary plan in 2015, but the planners
expect it to be fully developed quickly. Upton Farm in West Royalty also has considerable potential, but it
is owned by the Province and the Master Plan for the property prepared by Ekistics (now Fathom) in 2014
calls for the land to be largely developed as an urban park that has strong public support.
In the short-term, servicing constraints have been addressed through upgrading of wastewater treatment
facilities and development of a new wellfield in the outlying community of Miltonvale Park. Planners are,
however, uncertain whether current infrastructure can accommodate the population and number of
dwelling units that are likely to be added if the region continues to grow at the rate experienced from 2016
to 2021. In the long run, the potential of available groundwater sources will likely be critical. With recent
51
Consultation Summary
success in reducing consumption rates, the current supply may be sufficient to serve foreseeable
development but work on an overall water and sewer plan is ongoing.
While the City moved in recent years to permit secondary suites in all residential zones, planners
acknowledged the additional units can only make a small contribution to densification. They suggested
public education and long-term planning are required to increase acceptance of density. In the short term,
project proposals must be processed and frequently meet resistance from residents who only see local
impacts. Growth strategies would provide context for higher-density proposals and their role in meeting
community needs.
When asked about the importance of various housing issues in the city, Charlottetown planners
emphasized short-term rentals and renoviction. They added labour and building supplies shortages,
inadequate municipal planning staff numbers, and lack of coordination between the Province and
municipalities in the affordable housing sector to the list of concerns we identified.
4.1.2 Town of Cornwall
Cornwall, which is the smallest of the three core municipalities, has the most undeveloped land, but much
of it is in agricultural use. The urbanized area of Cornwall is focused on the former Trans-Canada
Highway corridor, which has been renamed Main Street since completion of the highway bypass through
the northern half of the town. Stantec has completed a review of the Town's 2014 Official Plan, which is
anticipated to go to public review in September 2021. The draft Official Plan calls for intensification of
development in the Main Street corridor based on a development plan created by Fathom under its
former Ekistics brand. The Official Plan will continue to limit development in agricultural and
seasonal/estate housing areas that flank Main Street, although it provides for new commercial/industrial
development at the new interchange that accesses the bypass and residential development along
Cornwall Road between the interchange and Main Street.
Cornwall staff feel enough land currently designated for development is available within the town,
although they are working their way through a long-standing oversupply of available lots. The Town's
primary concern is the capacity of its infrastructure. A new wellfield at the western edge of Cornwall has
recently come online. The Town's two wastewater treatment lagoons are near capacity, but their volume
can be increased sufficiently through dredging. In the longer term, agricultural lands will have to be
transitioned to urban development to accommodate growth but there is limited current pressure to do so.
The most critical issue identified by Cornwall staff is escalating housing prices. Rising prices obviously
reduce the choice available to lower income groups. Staff mentioned mini homes and tiny houses as
possible responses.
52
4.1.3 Town of Stratford
Stratford has been PEI and Atlantic Canada's fastest growing municipality since its incorporation in 1995.
Town staff expect continued growth. Land constraints are being relieved as a large tract held back
because its owner was not interested in development has now changed hands, although the past owner
retains control over the nature of development. In addition, the Charlottetown Development Corporation is
selling land on the town’s waterfront. This shift in land availability is expected to restore growth, which
slipped moderately from 2016 to 2021, to the high level the town has otherwise experienced during its
existence.
Constraints on service capacity that limited the town's expansion in the past five years relative to the 2011
to 2016 period have been alleviated through connection to Charlottetown for wastewater treatment. The
Town's planners feel the City has ample room to increase treatment capacity so it should not constrain
future growth. They are also confident in the Town's water supply. They indicated two wells can be added
within their existing wellfield and suggested Stratford might in fact be able to supply a portion of
Charlottetown's water needs in the future.
Homebuyer and developer interest in single-detached homes is limited, both as a reflection of housing
prices as well as different tolerance levels for the maintenance associated with larger properties. The
focus in Stratford has recently been on semi-detached and rowhouse development. The planners said
many international immigrants are incorporating an accessory unit in detached homes to accommodate
their extended families and/or mitigate carrying costs.
Long-time town residents accustomed to detached homes on half-acre lots are uncomfortable with
densification. The planners feel education is needed to convey the benefits of density such as reduced
trip lengths and suitability for transit service. The planners suggested, on the other hand, that Stratford
does not have the same commitment to low-rise development as Charlottetown where it is part of the
city's historic character. They feel increased height can be accommodated in the town core with limited
impact on existing development.
In discussing housing issues, Stratford staff emphasized escalating rents, which they said have doubled
over the past five years, and observed that it is becoming increasingly difficult for individuals in the
service sector and professionals working in the community to be able to find affordable housing within the
town. They noted that short-term rental is not a significant issue in the town. They also suggested
renoviction is not as much of a problem as in the city where landlords are trying to remove longer
standing tenants who are currently paying rents that are significantly below what the current market will
support.
The planners closed by returning to the subject of education and change. They noted the town has been
developed as a largely residential suburb at the lowest possible density. The mindset needs to change for
the town to become a complete community with employment as well as homes that can provide
affordable accommodation for diverse residents.
53
4.2 STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS

Samantha Murphy interviewed a variety of representative individuals in Charlottetown to obtain their
perspectives on housing issues. Contacts included real estate professionals, politicians, staff with key
Provincial departments, and a variety of representatives of groups involved in housing provision:
• Provincial Immigration (Jeff Young, Director, Office of Immigration) – Immigrants to PEI are
accustomed to higher density accommodation and tend to prefer apartments over detached housing.
Housing shortages inhibit the development of many communities. Jobs cannot be filled and, when
they are, the lack of long-term accommodation forces new residents to move on.
More housing is needed if the province is going to grow. Developers are eager to meet demand but
face shortages of labour and materials, as well as regulatory barriers. The government is working with
the construction industry to address labour needs through in-migration of skilled workers. While
Islanders generally support growth and welcome newcomers, many are resistant to development
projects needed to accommodate additional population.
• PEI Department of Finance – Staff with the Province’s Department of Finance are engaged in
monitoring demographic trends. They noted that concerns with population growth on the Island have
shifted from dealing with an aging and declining population to accommodating a younger, growing
population fueled by in-migration.
The Province needs to manage and accommodate growth to avoid returning to its previous challenge
of dealing with an aging population. The dominant issue currently is housing supply. Other issues
such as renoviction, and rising prices and rents are tied directly to the inadequate supply of dwelling
units. The primary barriers to increasing units are seen to be resistance of long-time residents to
increased housing density and the lag in municipal policy development to provide for growth. A more
sophisticated development industry is also required as the small business approach that has
traditionally provided single-detached units for Islanders is not equipped to pivot rapidly to the
production of high-density structures that are now needed.
• PEI Department of Social Development and Housing – Like contacts with the Department of Finance,
interviewees with Social Development and Housing follow population and housing trends closely.
They expect continued growth with attendant pressures on housing supply. The Island is, however,
adapting slowly to housing needs.
Like their counterparts in Finance, PEI Housing staff feel immigration will continue to be needed to
mitigate population aging and decline. Immigration is, however, increasing housing pressures without
attracting tradespeople capable of addressing housing needs due to the focus of prior immigration
programs. In addition, the Island’s established construction sector has limited experience with higher
density buildings.
PEI’s construction sector needs to “scale up” to meet contemporary housing needs. The public, at the
same time, needs to come to terms with changes in housing stock. Staff with the Department share
the belief articulated by many other contacts that higher density development is needed, and it is
likely that a larger proportion of the population will rent and may initiate homeownership in attached
housing rather than single-detached units. Public resistance to municipal approval of higher density
housing projects is a major hurdle.
54
If immigration is to continue, housing is needed. Supply also needs to be increased to relieve

pressures on the rental market. Housing shortages place pressure on rents. Landlords who cannot
raise rents sufficiently in PEI’s controlled market use renoviction and other strategies to displace
tenants. Additional units for renters should mitigate this tendency.
• Realtor – One real estate agent interviewed emphasized through examples the degree to which
prices have risen and the competition to buy reflected in offers typically coming in $10,000 to $20,000
over asking. He considers escalating prices and shortage of needed units to be the main problems in
the Charlottetown market but also recognized issues in the rental market such as rising rents,
renovictions, and the rise of short-term rentals.
• Appraiser – Our appraisal contact feels the public is very conservative. They want development to
reflect their current housing and are reluctant to accept that young adults will not be housed in the
same way as their parents. Change is needed to accommodate growing population but resistance to
increased density is strong.
Our contact considered supply to be the most important housing issue. He suggested financing is
readily available to support the rising home price level. Charlottetown is perceived as a last bastion of
affordability, but immigration has eroded its position. He questioned whether rents are rising as
significantly as many people suggest, given that they are regulated by IRAC. Nonetheless, providing
affordable rental accommodation is critical for low-income residents.
• Major Landlord – Stantec interviewed staff with a large apartment building and management company
with rental properties across Canada that is very active in the Capital Region. They identified
international immigration and, since the COVID lockdown started, inter-provincial migration as the
main causes of housing pressures. They said Federal Government policy concerning immigration and
the quota of immigrants assigned to PEI would be the primary factors in future growth.
Representatives of the company emphasized that, while opportunities on the Island are attractive to
their investors, taxes and regulatory issues are critical. They said that prices have escalated in PEI
over the past decade and taxes have been a significant factor. They noted as an example that as
labour and materials costs have risen 15% HST has been applied to both and has grown in
proportion. Property taxes have likewise risen significantly along with costs for insurance and other
requirements.
While they shared the concerns of other landlords and developers we consulted with community
resistance to new construction, they said land use regulation is time-consuming across Canada and
they consider PEI one of the better jurisdictions in which they are active to get from application to
construction. They also said they were not discouraged by rent controls provided reasonable
increases are permitted. Predictability is important to them, and controls are factored into their
assessment of development opportunities.
On the other hand, they noted that PEI is the only province in which controlled rents are carried from
one tenant to the next and they feel strongly that prospective tenants have ample opportunity in a
competitive market to assess the value of an apartment. In their view, rent controls should protect
long-term tenants who may lose their accommodation if they are not financially able to deal with an
abrupt increase in rent, not new tenants who can look at a range of options to find a unit suited to
their ability to pay.
55
• Habitat for Humanity – Rising prices, labour, and materials shortages are as challenging for Habitat
as they are for conventional builders. Habitat projects may also meet resistance from neighbours who
perceive residents as being on assistance but the need for Habitat grows as prices rise and an
increasing proportion of the population cannot accumulate the necessary down payment for
homeownership.
• PEI Fight for Affordable Housing – The current approach is overly reliant on market solutions. Even
units produced under government programs are not affordable for many tenants. Units to be
developed under National Housing Strategy, which requires 30% to be less than 80% of the median
rent for the region, are barely affordable to start and will likely become less affordable over the next
20 years. Redevelopment for new apartment structures frequently results in demolition of affordable
units and replacement by a larger number of units directed to the high end of the market.
Our contacts advocated for strong Federal and Provincial investment in public and non-profit housing
to encourage land trusts, co-ops, and housing associations in the context of a long-term vision and
means to maintain affordable over time. Many also urged greater involvement from municipalities in
the development and management of public housing. They also urged stronger protections for
tenants to prevent renovictions and measures to house tenants in acceptable and affordable
accommodation if they must be displaced.
They noted wages are lower in PEI and the working or unemployed poor have less than their
counterparts in many areas of the country. The PEIFAH’s concern is more with availability and
affordability than with specific unit types, although they did note the need for larger apartment units
suitable for families and sharing of small accommodations among individuals who cannot afford
separate accommodations (i.e., bachelor and one-bedroom units). The mental and physical
consequences of displacement from housing are substantial for affected individuals.
Throughout the interview, PEIFAH representatives emphasized the poor performance of the market in
meeting low-income housing needs. While they consider housing to be in short supply like others,
they gave more weight to issues that bear more directly on tenants (e.g., escalating rents, renoviction,
and short-term rentals) and increased government action to provide needed social housing.
• Native Council – Rents are out of reach for Indigenous clients living off-reserve and two and three-
bedroom units are in short supply. The Council’s representatives believe large corporate landlords
are conspiring to maintain and increase high rents. They feel renoviction, inadequate housing supply,
and escalating home prices are the main housing challenges in the region.
• PEI Association for Newcomers to Canada – Representatives from the Association for Newcomers
pointed out that immigrants are not uniform. Different ethnicities have different aspirations. Some are
accustomed to apartments in dense urban areas; however, others migrated to Canada seeking space
and land. They observed that PEI communities – particularly Stratford – have been actively and
deliberately welcoming to immigrants. The Province needs to create a coordinated plan to provide
housing at the regional level while protecting agriculture and other valued features.
• Family Violence Prevention – Many low-income families are challenged to obtain housing and remain
housed regardless of rents. Landlords are reluctant to take families with children. Two and three-
bedroom apartment units are in short supply, as are smaller units for those not interested in forming
households.
56
• University Students – Stantec spoke with Anagha Muralidharan, UPEI’s Vice-President Academic &
External, who is an elected student representative employed by the University to advocate for
students. Ms. Muralidharan stated that students are at significant disadvantage in the Charlottetown
housing market because of lack of knowledge and money. Landlords take advantage of foreign
students, in particular. She said that the Student Union has argued for provision of affordable student
housing but currently would settle for inclusion in Provincial housing voucher programs. She provided
survey information suggesting that many current UPEI students plan to leave the Island after
graduation because of the cost of housing.
• Elected Officials (Hannah Bell, MLA for District 11: Charlottetown-Parkdale, and Nate Hood, Senior
Policy Advisor. PEI Green Party) – Housing preferences are evolving under the influence of changing
age structure and other features of the population. Increased housing development is needed but
there does not seem to be a long-term plan for its provision. Withdrawal of government from provision
of social housing has been critical. The private sector has not met the need for affordable housing.
The inability of many to purchase a home exacerbates rental conditions. If people cannot afford a
home, they stay in rental, increasing demand and pushing up rents. Rents are also driven up by in-
migrants accustomed to higher prices and/or unfamiliar with the local market. International students
are particularly vulnerable because landlords perceive them as having more money and less
knowledge of the system, and, consequently, charge them premium rents.
Private builders are supplying unit types that government will support/assist financially and which
zoning will allow. It is not realistic to innovate or even provide alternative housing forms. In any case,
financial supports from the Province are limited and difficult to access, and developers have little
guidance concerning housing needs or any kind of framework within which to meet needs such as
accommodating more people in downtown Charlottetown.
Transit is particularly important as a support to housing choice and very little is done to either provide
transit to housing or build housing that will encourage transit use.
Affordability has become an issue even for employed professionals in two-income households.
Community members are resistant to increased density but there are areas in downtowns where it
can be incorporated with little impact on existing residential, particularly the downtowns where it could
fill surplus commercial space and replace under-utilized commercial buildings.
4.3 FOCUS GROUP INTERVIEWS

During the week beginning on Monday, June 21, the consulting team arranged and conducted three focus
group interviews with invited groups with distinct interests in local housing. The three sessions were as
follows:
• Affordable Housing Advocates (Monday, June 21) – The session involved administrators of
specialized housing facilities and with organizations working with and advocating for special needs
populations.
• Developers and Builders (Wednesday, June 23) – Participants were land developers and/or builders
active in the Capital Region.
• Community Members (Thursday, June 24) – Residents of the Capital Region recommended to the
consultants for their interest in housing issues.
57
Sessions were facilitated by Samantha Murphy who walked participants through a series of questions
concerning housing needs, challenges to meeting those needs, and potential actions to respond to
housing concerns in the region.
4.3.1 AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADVOCATES
Affordable housing providers support groups in severe financial need or with special housing
requirements such as the physically and mentally challenged, individuals dealing with addictions, the
elderly, and individuals experiencing family violence. They also tend to be spokespeople for tenants and
other disadvantaged groups that have difficulty finding and affording suitable housing such as immigrants
and low-income families. Representatives from the sector said there is need in every housing category,
but it is difficult to create the needed spaces.
Given their interest in the general affordability of housing, focus group participants cited many issues
repeated below by developers and builders and general community members who are also trying to build
or encourage the construction of needed units. All construction projects on the Island currently face
labour and materials shortages, as well as barriers to approval. The approval system is also time-
consuming and difficult as specialized and affordable units typically differ in terms of density of units and
height from the standard neighbourhood fabric that planning policy and zoning requirements usually
reinforce. Getting through approval processes that frequently involve changes in zoning and therefore
public consultation, and then having to arrange for workers and materials increases the costs of projects
and extends the time required to bring units online.
Specialized units are generally built on a smaller scale than general housing projects. Accommodations
are usually added through adaptation of existing buildings or on infill lots. Infrastructure capacity and
issues such as sprawl are less relevant than for general housing. On the other hand, community
resistance is possibly stronger. Whereas residents typically oppose new housing and alternative housing
types out of concern for environmental effects like traffic, as well as loss of privacy, and impacts on
property values, specialized housing projects often face social concerns as well, which may extend to
prejudice against expected occupants. Alternatively, gentrification of existing buildings, especially in the
core area, has been described as resulting in the reduction of affordable and accessible units,
notwithstanding the overall improvement in the physical condition of the units.
While the location of specialized units has little influence on urban sprawl, transportation access is critical
to occupants of specialized housing. Many occupants have limitations that prevent them from driving or
employing active transportation modes (i.e., walking, cycling, and other self-propelled forms of travel).
Most face financial challenges, in any case, that make vehicle ownership difficult. In the region, based on
availability of land, land costs, and zoning, more affordable units have tended to be built or located
outside of the walkable core area in recent years and, in many cases, are insufficiently supported by
transit routes and schedules that match commuting needs or the location of services. Housing close to
work and amenities is critical not only to affordability but also, in many cases, to having a fulfilling life.
58
Affordable housing professionals were strong advocates for tenants. They noted that many landlords
exercise advantages that they have over tenants. Many low-cost rental units are marginal
accommodations with poor services and maintenance. If renters complain about shortcomings, many
landlords simply refund their deposit and let them move on. In short, tenants who secure lower cost
accommodation tend to “get what they pay for” as they have limited means to leverage fair treatment and
reasonable service, and those with the greatest need tend to be the most vulnerable. In response,
affordable housing professionals favour a landlord registration regime that would provide a framework for
regular inspection as well as for registering rents.
4.3.2 DEVELOPERS AND BUILDERS
Housing providers said there is a strong demand for multiple-unit residential. First-time homebuyers seek
semi-detached and townhouse units because they cannot generally afford single-detached homes. Many
older homeowners are also interested in downsizing to attached housing types. A segment is also looking
for more space because they are working from home. Contemporary buyers are interested in ready-built
units as opposed to buying a lot and building a house separately as was common in the past.
Group participants said demand for rental apartment units is even stronger. Apartments are necessary to
accommodate the young and newcomers to the area, as well as older people seeking to downsize and
simplify housing arrangements. They are also more profitable, which has stimulated a shift in the sector
from detached housing to apartment construction. Although there has been practically no residential high-
rise construction (i.e., more than four stories) in the region, developers are interested in the opportunity as
high-rise construction should lower costs and provide a living environment that would be attractive to
many residents of the region, particularly the elderly.
Developers and builders also noted the substantial increase in interest from outside buyers. Buyers from
Ontario and other areas of Canada are willing to purchase property based on online information and a
virtual inspection. They are familiar with much higher home prices and rents than have historically been
found in the Charlottetown market and have been a major factor in driving up prices and rents, factors
that have fueled the recent surge in housing activity.
The group reinforced the perception of the affordable housing group that labour, materials, and land are
all in short supply, and development costs on the Island are high. Industry participants are eager to
provide more housing units, but the lack of workers is a significant challenge and cost factor that inhibits
the ability of the industry to supply needed units.
Developers and builders also must deal with strong resistance to density from community members.
NIMBYism is supported by municipal councils that frequently override the recommendations of planners.
Housing providers would like to see clearer, more objective policies (e.g., form-based code) and easier
acceptance by councils of the advice provided by their professional planning staff. Planners, as noted,
generally favour the provision of attached units and apartments but councils frequently bow to community
pressures to prevent developments that are perceived to change the character of neighbourhoods. The
level of risk and uncertainty in bringing a proposal to the approval stage can be a deterrent for some
developers, in part due to the costs associated with developing the project proposals.
59
The group argued for a new paradigm. They are aware of the environmental benefits of increased density
and argued strongly for policy to make compact development a priority. Most recognized the value of the
Special Planning Area regulation in containing sprawl. They, also, saw the need for subsidies to create
affordable housing and were supportive of increased public housing and specialized units. They were, on
the other hand, critical of rent control, which participants argued diminishes the incentive to build rental
units and makes it difficult to provide and maintain quality units.
4.3.3 COMMUNITY REPRESENTATIVES
Interested community members who participated in our general focus group emphasized the need for
family units to provide two to three or more bedrooms. They discussed the distribution of development
and transportation issues in considerable depth. While less expensive housing can be obtained on the
outskirts of the Capital Region, as well as in surrounding rural communities, low-cost transportation is an
essential complement that is rarely available. Most households struggling to afford suitable
accommodation also have difficulty owning and maintaining an automobile, but transit is rarely available
outside the urban core of the region. Likewise, the group highlighted the challenges associated with
entering the homeownership segment.
They recognized, however, strong resistance to high-density development in the urban core. Residents in
established areas particularly oppose apartment projects but are also concerned with semi-detached and
rowhouse developments.
In addition to transportation priorities, community participants also noted the environmental benefits of
density. Both Cornwall and Stratford seek to preserve existing farmland within their limits and most
community members feel that it is important to continue to maintain a balance between urban areas and
open spaces in the region. Density facilitates the location of growing population on a smaller footprint and
respects bordering agricultural lands. The gradual release of agricultural lands, furthermore, reduces the
cost of extending services relative to simply opening all areas for development and potentially extending
roads and water and wastewater networks to multiple areas.
4.4 OVERVIEW
The perspectives of the key groups we consulted differed on some important issues but aligned closely
on several others. A key area of disagreement was rent control, which affordable housing advocates and
many community members consulted value, but developers and builders decry. Community members
value rent controls as a protection for the most vulnerable members of the population and criticized its
abuse by landlords who some accuse of distorting past rents, abusing tenants, and renovicting occupants
to circumvent controls. Housing developers and builders, on the other hand, feel that controls curtail
profitability and, thereby, limit supply, ultimately resulting in both higher rents and less access to housing.
Provincial staff interviewed and others noted that rental market issues are tied closely to supply
constraints as the tight market has given landlords the upper hand in dealing with tenants, who can be
readily replaced.
60
All three interest groups as well as every interview contact consulted agreed on the importance of
increasing the density of development. Developers and builders contend that consumers want smaller
units in more compact communities because they are more affordable and better suited to the needs and
lifestyles of major sub-groups such as young adults, the elderly, and immigrants. They are also more
profitable for developers and, therefore, important to the viability of the housing industry in which
attractive returns are balanced by financial risk.
Affordable housing providers and community members supported density increases as well. They agreed
with housing providers that density is critical to affordability not just of the dwelling unit itself but also
related costs, particularly transportation expenditures. Many participants, in fact, called for expanded and
improved transit to support affordable housing choices.
Most contacts are aware of the environmental and economic benefits of density and cited what are
essentially “Smart City” arguments to support their views. Stantec has tackled the issue previously in a
2013 study for Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) titled, Quantifying the Costs and Benefits off
Alternative Growth Scenarios, which examined the likely impacts of alternative distributions of new
housing in the municipality. The study, which is referenced on the first page of HRM’s current Regional
Municipal Planning Strategy (RMPS), calculated substantial financial and economic savings, health
improvements, and moderate environmental benefits, based on examination of the full range of public
and private services influenced by density. 38 Policy and regulatory changes that followed from the study
and its influence on the RMPS have facilitated considerable change in HRM in the context of a housing
surge similar to the Charlottetown’s current circumstances but with a much more pronounced shift to
multiple-unit construction, particularly high-rise apartments.
Notwithstanding continued reliance on low-rise construction, the Capital Region and adjacent areas have
not been subject to extreme sprawl. While most areas of the region have been growing, development
during the past decade has been increasingly concentrated in the core urban municipalities. Our
estimates of population change over the past five years suggest that the largest gains were in the City of
Charlottetown, while the farthest outlying areas of Queens County have experienced the slowest growth.
The limits imposed by the Special Planning Area regulation appear to have been reasonably effective.
They have been reinforced, in any case, by the market preferences cited by most of the contacts
consulted for this study. For the increasing proportion in the population seeking attached housing and
apartment units, the City of Charlottetown, and the Towns of Cornwall and Stratford, have been the only
option. Development regulations and available infrastructure in outlying areas generally limit construction
to two units or less.
38
Stantec Consulting Limited, Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Alternative Growth Scenarios: Final Report, April 2013, p.
8.1.
61
The resulting challenge has been to obtain suitable land in the urban core of the region. The majority of
contacts stated that serviced land zoned for higher density development is difficult to find. Most also
complained that it is very difficult to obtain rezonings or other necessary planning changes to allow higher
density projects. Outdated policy and resistance from long-standing residents more comfortable with
single-detached development were cited repeatedly as critical barriers.
Most contacts believe that rental market stresses result from the inadequate supply of rental units. Private
sector providers argue that rent controls exacerbate this situation by suppressing returns on rental
accommodation relative the sale of units for homeownership. Affordable housing professionals and some
community members have, however, responded that the private market does not meet the needs of low-
income tenants, who cannot afford the rents normally expected from new units. They also continue to be
concerned with the perceived tendencies of landlords to bully and manipulate tenants.
In general, all contacts favoured the provision of more specialized housing for the elderly, those with
physical and mental disabilities, and individuals facing mental health challenges. Somewhat surprisingly,
housing providers joined affordable housing advocates and community members in supporting increased
production of public housing. Developers and builders agreed that affordable housing cannot be provided
without subsidies from government to bring costs in line with the ability of less fortunate residents to pay.
62
5.0 POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS
The primary determinant of housing need, as noted, is demographic change. As the population of the
Capital Region increases, residents require more housing units. As the population grows, also, changing
age and other demographic features may influence household formation and create demand for
additional housing in different forms. As families form, they need homes. As they have children, they may
need to enlarge their accommodation. Further aging and other factors may also lead to division of
households. As children get jobs and seek to live independently or start their own families, or when
divorce causes a couple to divide assets and move apart residents of one dwelling unit may come to
require two or three homes. Moves required to accommodate evolving household needs, furthermore,
may lead to redistribution of households within the region, as when growing families move to suburbs to
increase their living space or when older residents move to the urban core to improve their access to
amenities and supporting facilities such as health care. Fundamentally though, these shifts are motivated
by demographic influences and charting those influences is critical to calculating housing needs.
5.1 GEOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK

While the focus of this study is the Capital Region composed of the City of Charlottetown, and the Towns
of Cornwall and Stratford, their growth and change, and the related housing issues they face are
influenced by their regional setting. The three urban municipalities are the core of a larger region within
which most residents interact regularly with the urban core. By Statistics Canada’s definition, the region
associated with the core is described by the Charlottetown Census Agglomeration (CA), which we have
referred to as a single entity above. Because our projection model is created within the framework of
Canadian census divisions, it is natural to look at Queens County, the census division within which the
CA is located. The CA accounted for 87.8% of the County’s population in 2016 (78,858 of 89,770 people).
Remaining residents are on the county’s western and southeastern edges, which despite their rural
character show high levels of interaction with the Capital Region municipalities.
In total, Queens County has 38 census subdivisions of which 19 comprise the CA. For analysis, we broke
the CA outside the three Capital Region municipalities into west, central, and east components, and the
balance of Queens County outside the CA into west and southeast areas (Figure 5-1). West to east, they
are each composed of the following census subdivisions:
• West Queens County – Crapaud; Victoria; Lots 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 29, 30, and 67; Breadalbane;
Hunter River; the Resort Municipality; North Rustico
• West CA – Clyde River; Meadowbank; Lots 31 and 65; Rocky Point Reserve; Warren Grove
• Central CA – Miltonvale Park; Brackley; Lot 33; Union Road; Winsloe South; Lots 34, 35, and 36,
Scotchfort Reserve; Lot 37; Mount Stewart
• East CA – Lots 48 and 49
• Southeast Queens County – Lots 50, 57, 58, 60, and 62.
63
Population and Housing Trends
Figure 5-1 Regional Subdivisions, Queens County, 2016
Source Census of Canada and Statistics Canada Estimates
The five areas have been created to provide a framework for discussing the distribution of housing
development in Queens County relative to the Capital Region consisting of the three central urban
municipalities. The areas are not recognized Statistics Canada geographies. Numbers for each area
presented following were calculated by summing Statistics Canada data for the identified census
subdivisions. We would also note that the former rural municipalities of Meadowbank, New Haven-
Riverdale, Bonshaw, West River, and Afton were located within Lots 30 and 65 but were not recognized
as census subdivisions by Statistics Canada. The five communities consolidated since the 2016 Census
to become the Rural Municipality of West River in 2020.
64
Commuter flows between the identified areas illustrate their relative integration. Overall, based on 2016
data, 94.1% of trips to work originating in Queens and destined for a job location in Queens ended in one
of the three Capital Region municipalities (Table 5-1). Trips originating in those three communities,
furthermore, were nearly all destined for work within their limits (97.2%). For outer areas of the CA, the
proportion of work trips that ended in the Regional Centre was only moderately less, ranging from 87.0%
in the Central CA to 91.7% in the Western CA. The farther removed areas of Queens outside the CA
boundary had lower proportions travelling to the Capital Region but proportions of commuters travelling to
the urban core were still substantial (78.6% in Western Queens and 75.3% in Southeast Queens) strongly
indicating that the three central municipalities were and continue to be the primary location of employment
for residents throughout Queens County.
Table 5-1 Commuter Flows, Queens County, 2016
Southeast
Charlotte-
Cornwall
Regional
Regional
Stratford
West CA
East CA
Queens
Queens
Centre*
Central
Centre
West
town
% in
CA
TO/FROM TOTAL
West Queens 220 0 65 0 0 45 0 0 330 65 19.7%
West CA 0 140 40 0 25 0 0 0 205 65 31.7%
Charlottetown 990 1,350 12,565 3,300 1,800 2,850 850 320 24,025 17,665 73.5%
Stratford 0 55 330 540 45 80 170 0 1,220 915 75.0%
Cornwall 20 135 205 20 185 20 0 0 585 410 70.1%
Central CA 55 0 320 25 0 395 0 0 795 345 43.4%
East CA 0 0 20 30 0 0 60 0 110 50 45.5%
Southeast
0 0 0 25 0 0 55 105 185 25 13.5%
Queens
TOTAL 1,285 1,680 13,545 3,940 2,055 3,390 1,135 425 27,455 19,540 71.2%
% from
Capital 78.6% 91.7% 96.7% 98.0% 98.8% 87.0% 89.9% 75.3% 94.1% 97.2%
Region
* Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford
5.2 PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Many of the factors that dictate population change and housing need are reasonably predictable.
Population change is a function of only three factors. The first two are rates of births and deaths in the
population, which are tracked annually by province and territory in Canada. The trends in both are well-
known and can be extrapolated from recent historical data. The third influence is net migration. The
Census of Canada provides good data on local movement and in-migration for municipalities (i.e., census
subdivisions), but information on out-migration at the local level is limited. We have, however, developed
a model that, with sound projections of births and deaths, can estimate the difference between in-
migration and out-migration reasonably accurately.
65
To create estimates of not only population numbers but also the age structure of the population, the
model Stantec staff have developed incorporates all three foregoing factors. We apply the model
frequently to assess population change in communities across Canada. It applies a standard approach
called the cohort-survival method. The technique estimates population change by applying birth and
death rates to the existing population. It calculates births by applying birth rates to the number of women
of child-bearing age (i.e., 15 to 45 years of age) in five-year age groups within a locality. It determines
deaths by multiplying the numbers of people in each five-year age group by the appropriate survival rate
for that group.
Nowadays, birth rates tend to be highest for women in their late 20s and early 30s. Survival rates are
lower for the very young (0 to 4 years), who are subject to childhood diseases and birth-related
challenges, but increase significantly afterward, except for teen and early adult years when risky
behaviors have an impact, particularly for males. Eventually, however, rates of survival gradually and
steadily fall with advancing age. These factors combine to create natural increase in the population or the
net difference between births and deaths. Natural increase is maximized where a high proportion of
population members are in family forming/child-bearing age groups (i.e., 20 to 39 years). It may also be
influenced by high local birth rates, which are most likely to occur in communities with strong economies
(i.e., that provide assurance to couples that they will have reliable income to support a family). It is also
beneficial to have high survival rates but their variation within most of Canada is generally insufficient to
significantly influence absolute numbers in one location relative to others.
The much more influential determinant of local population change, in any case, is migration. The western
provinces, for example, grew strongly until recently because economic opportunities there attracted in-
migrants. The propensity to migrate, furthermore, is highest among young adults, which means that areas
that attract proportionately more in-migrants also tend to augment their populations through higher rates
of natural increase. Prince Edward Island and other provinces of Atlantic Canada have traditionally
attracted modest in-migration. They have, at the same time, lost many residents through out-migration,
particularly young adults who have left for education and employment opportunities elsewhere.
Migration is calculated in our model by estimating natural increase (i.e., births less deaths) in isolation in
the subject population for past periods as if all residents were stationary (i.e., assuming no in or out-
migration) and then comparing the result to the actual population recorded by the census. The residual or
the difference between the population estimated based on natural increase and the actual population
counted by the census is an estimate of net migration, which, as we have noted, is the only factor other
than natural increase that influences population). With these estimates from past census periods, the
model develops percentage rates of net migration for each five-year age-sex cohort that can be applied
with future projections of births and deaths to calculate future population.
The model applies projected birth and death rates to current populations, along with the net migration
rates calculated by the residual technique to generate estimates for future census years. The model can
be adjusted to provide estimates based on any period comprising one or more five-year intervals from
2006 to 2021 (i.e., 2006-2011, 2006-2016, 2006-2021, 2011-2016, 2011-2021, and 2016-2021).
66
Local estimates such as we present below for Queens County and its component municipal jurisdictions
and sub-areas are reconciled in the context of a model for the entire province. Our PEI projection,
furthermore, is created within the context of a Canadian model within which provincial and territorial
estimates are reconciled with an overall estimate for Canada. This ensures that the local estimates
correspond to logical national and provincial frameworks. Populations of sub-areas within a region or
municipality are similarly reconciled to the total regional or municipal population (e.g., the CA or county).
Age-sex cohort estimates can be applied to create a variety of related estimates. We regularly apply age-
specific headship rates, calculated from census data to future cohort estimates to create future profiles of
housing by structural type. Current readily available breakdowns of primary household maintainers are by
ten-year age groups.
The number of primary household maintainers in an age group can be divided by the total population in
that group to estimate the number of households likely to be formed by residents in the cohort. For
example, in 2016, 50.4% of Queens residents between 25 and 34 years of age were primary maintainers
and 17.7% lived in single-detached homes (see Table 5-7, below). If a future projection estimates the
number in the 25 to 34-year age group in the Capital Region at 10,000 we would suppose 5,040 would
maintain households and 1,770 of those homes would be single-detached dwelling units. Similar
percentage headship rates can be calculated for seven other structural types of housing recognized by
Statistics Canada and employed to project the number of households likely to occupy each type. We have
also adjusted future headship rates as explained in Section 6.1.2 dealing with dwelling unit estimates
below.
5.3 CENSUS COUNTS AND ESTIMATES

The primary data used by our model is population counts by five-year age-sex cohorts from the 2006,
2011, and 2016, and 2021 censuses. Censuses are taken at five-year intervals in Canada in the mid-year
of years ending with 1 and 6 (e.g., 2016 and 2021). Census populations are not completely accurate.
Despite laws requiring response to the census, some people do not comply, and others are simply
unaware of their responsibility. Mistakes are also occasionally made in the census data collection process
that result in individuals being unintentionally excluded or counted more than once.
Estimates based on studies by Statistics Canada set net coverage (i.e., undercount less errors that result
in double counting or otherwise adding to Census counts) at 2.36% for the 2016 Census. An estimate of
undercoverage is not yet available for the 2021 Census. Undercoverage is commonly associated with
more mobile groups in the population as well as with minorities. Young adults tend to be undercounted
because they move more frequently for school and jobs. This tendency is also stronger for men than
women, although the gap between the sexes is converging. Recent immigrants to Canada and aboriginal
groups also tend to be undercounted because of communications issues and relative isolation.
Census taking in PEI is relatively accurate. The province had the fourth lowest undercoverage rate
among 13 provinces and territories in 2016 and the third lowest level of overcoverage (Table 5-2).
Overall, the Island’s net undercoverage rate or coverage error of 2.36% ranked ninth. The low rate is
attributable to the province’s small territory and relatively stable population.
67
Table 5-2 Census of Canada Coverage, Canada and Provinces, 2016

Under-count Over-count
Province/ Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Net
Territory Number Rate Number Rate Undercoverage
Newfoundland 20,848 3.94% 11,074 2.09% 1.85%
PEI 5,875 4.01% 2,412 1.65% 2.36%
Nova Scotia 34,872 3.70% 17,063 1.81% 1.89%
New Brunswick 32,382 4.24% 16,647 2.18% 2.06%
Quebec 211,077 2.57% 175,886 2.15% 0.42%
Ontario 640,831 4.63% 259,289 1.87% 2.76%
Manitoba 51,742 3.95% 19,847 1.51% 2.44%
Saskatchewan 56,494 4.99% 21,651 1.91% 3.08%
Alberta 188,706 4.51% 72,739 1.74% 2.77%
British Columbia 305,948 6.31% 108,681 2.24% 4.07%
Yukon 3,219 8.42% 849 2.22% 6.20%
NWT 3,500 7.83% 561 1.25% 6.58%
Nunavut 1,565 4.25% 636 1.73% 2.52%
Canada 1,557,061 4.32% 707,335 1.96% 2.36%
Source Statistics Canada
The situation has however Figure 5-2 Population Estimates and Census Counts,
been changing in Queens Queens County, 2001-2021
County. Figure 5-2 120,000 10.0%
summarizes population
97,211
9.0%
89,770
estimates with census counts 84,545
100,000
81,843
for the last five national

80,223
8.0%
77,865
8.3%
73,875
72,745
72,362
censuses taken in Queens. As

71,615
7.0%
the figure illustrates, estimates 80,000
have been consistently higher 6.0%
than census numbers, as we 60,000 5.0%
would expect. The discrepancy
has however increased from 4.0%
40,000
1.1% in 2001 to 8.3% in 2016. 3.0%
3.3%
The widening gap seems likely 3.0%
2.0%
to be attributable to increased 20,000
growth in the county over the 1.6% 1.0%
period, given that new 1.0%
0 0.0%
residents are harder to locate 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
and count.
Census Estimates Difference
Source Census of Canada and Statistics Canada Estimates
68
Recognizing that estimates correct for sometimes significant errors in census counts, we base our
modelling on estimates. As Statistics Canada estimates do not breakdown population by age and sex for
census subdivisions (i.e., municipalities), our model adjusts census age-sex breakdowns for
municipalities and unorganized areas to Statistics Canada’s total population estimates for those areas
and then to the age-sex breakdown estimated for Queens County. We first adjust the age groups in each
census subdivision by the percentage difference between the estimated number in each age cohort and
the census count. That means, if, for example, the Statistics Canada estimate for males 20 to 24 years of
age in Queens County is 14.2% more than the census count, as it was in 2016, we multiple the numbers
for males in the 20 to 24 group by 114.2% for each municipality or area. The benefit is to allocate the
adjustment to that age-sex cohort to locations within the county based on their representation in census
counts as some areas are clearly more likely to attract certain age groups. Once we have made this age-
sex adjustment, the model prorates the remaining difference between the estimate and census counts
across municipalities and unorganized areas of Queens to bring those sub-area numbers in line with the
county estimate.
The numbers displayed in following Chapter 6.0, therefore, are higher than the census counts with which
many people are familiar. The rate of growth reflected in estimates is also higher. The benefit of using
estimates is clearly important. Statistics Canada’s 2021 estimate for Queens County currently indicates
there were 10,912 more people in the county than the 2021 Census counted a number that is very close
to the current population of the Town of Stratford.
Ignoring the presence of such a substantial number would result in a serious underestimate of housing
needs. In some cases, below, we must use census numbers, most notably for past dwelling unit counts.
We distinguish census numbers from estimates and estimate-based numbers where relevant. For
projection purposes, we divide census-based dwelling unit numbers into census population counts to get
appropriate ratios between population and housing that we apply to our population estimates to calculate
future housing demand. In other words, our housing projections are coordinated with the use of
population estimates as opposed to census counts.
5.4 COMPONENTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Given that local demographic changes are a function of births, deaths, and net migration (i.e., in-migration
– out-migration), it is valuable to understand the trends behind each factor and their relative contribution
to population change and composition. The age-specific birth and death rates we use in our model are
recorded at the provincial level. Their fit with Queens County can be expected to be very good given that
Queens currently accounts for 61.1% of the Island’s population.
5.4.1 Fertility
Fertility is generally measured in terms of the number of live births to women in child-bearing age groups.
The age span within which women normally have children is 15 to 49 years. As noted, while the overall
rate of births in the population has largely been stable since 2001, significant shifts have taken place
between age groups. The broad trend has been from younger age groups in which birth rates are
declining to older groups in which rates are rising. The most striking changes have been for the 15 to 19
69
and 20 to 24 groups for which births have declined significantly and the 35 to 39 group, for which births
have risen dramatically (Figure 5-3).
Figure 5-3 Births per 1,000 Women by Five-year Age Cohort, PEI, 2001-2019
140.0
121.4
120.0
107.0 107.9
104.8 104.2 103.6 105.7 105.2
103.1
110.7 112.3 100.5
108.2 108.9 96.7 96.5
100.0 94.1 94.3 93.2
104.7 102.7 104.6
91.4 104.0 102.3 102.9
101.3 102.6 88.0 87.1 100.4 100.7 100.8
84.9 83.7 95.9 96.0
93.6
91.3
80.0
67.1
61.0 61.3 61.6 62.4 74.3
56.1 58.1 57.4
60.0 54.6 53.7
50.1 51.5
49.047.3 48.8 48
45.5 44.9 46.1 44.9
43.0 41.2 41.4 42.2
41.9 42.2 41.7 39.9 40.8
40.5 39.7 40.3 38.8
36.9
40.0 32.1
29.8 30.5 30.8 31.5
24.9
20.0
17.0 17.6 18.8 16.3 15.6 17.0 15.4 16.9 14.9 16.6
7.2 5.9 5.7 6.0 13.4 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.3 7.2
6.4 6.7 10.5
6.5 12.0
4.5 4.9 4.6 6.2 3.8 5.8 11.9 4.7 6.0 9.4 8 8.9
6.8 6.2 5.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Source Statistics Canada Table 13-10-0418-01
Key trends, in order of the five-year age groups, are as follows:
• 15-19 – Declined from a rates over 17 at the beginning of the century to 5.9 or barely a third of
that level in 2019
• 20-24 – Declined to 31.5 or barely more than half of its 2001 rate (61.0)
• 25-29 – Fell from 101.3 to 93.6 in 2019 and then dropped abruptly to 74.3 in 2020
• 30-34 – Increased from 84.9 to 100.5, although it has reached as high as 120.3 (2016)
• 35-39 – Increased from 24.9 to 44.9
• 40-44 – Increased from 4.5 to 7.2
• 45-49 – Fluctuated below 1.0.
70
The postponement of childbearing across the population has affected total births. Overall, the crude birth
rate or the number of live births per 1,000 population declined from levels frequently exceeding 10 prior to
2010 to 8.1 in 2020. The downward trend contributes to the continuing decline in household size.
5.4.2 Mortality
Mortality follows the pattern discussed above with higher rates in the first few years of life, lower rates
thereafter, until they gradually escalate with advancing age. In addition, men have higher mortality than
women throughout life. On average, consequently, women live longer than men and elderly women
typically outnumber elderly men.
Since 2001, male mortality in PEI has fluctuated from 8.0 to 9.5, while female mortality has stayed
between 7.2 and 8.9. Mortality for the two sexes together has been as low as 7.7 and as high as 9.0 but
no trend upward or downward is apparent in the aggregate numbers or for any five-year cohort (Figure
5-4).
Figure 5-4 Mortality Rates, Males, Females, and Both Sexes, PEI, 2001-2019
10.0
9.6
9.5 9.4 9.4

9.3 9.3 9.3
9.1
9.1
9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.0
8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8
8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.8
8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9
8.6 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6
8.8 8.8
8.6 8.5
8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4
8.5 8.5 8.4
8.4 8.3 8.4
8.3 8.3 8.3
8.1 8.2 8.2
8.0 7.9
8.1
8.0 7.9 7.9
7.8
7.5
7.4
7.3
7.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Both sexes Males Females
Source Statistics Canada Table 13-10-0710-01
71
5.4.3 Natural Increase
Natural increase or the difference between deaths and births in PEI’s population was positive from 2001
through 2017; however, the death rate has exceeded the birth rate in since 2018 (Figure 5-5), although
the excess of deaths over births has declined slightly each year since 2018. With negative natural
increase, in-migration is essential to maintain the region’s population.
Figure 5-5 Natural Increase, PEI, 2001-2019

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
1.8 2.0 2.0

1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6
2.0 1.2 1.3 1.3
0.7 0.9 0.9
0.6 0.5
0.1
0.0
-0.4 -0.4 -0.3
-2.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Natural Increase Birth rate Mortality rate
Source Statistics Canada Tables 13-10-0418-01 and 13-10-0710-01
5.4.4 Migration
Migration is more volatile than births and deaths, and the relevant data is more complex. For one thing,
there are three key types of migration: international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial. As we have
previously noted, data on local in-migration is readily available from the census but numbers for out-
migration are not. Migration also takes several forms and has a variety of motivations. The leading
reasons for moving are summarized in Table 5-3 from the 2018 Canadian Housing Survey conducted by
Statistics Canada.
72
According to data from the Canadian Association of Movers, typical Canadians move “five to six times”
over a lifetime.” 39 Islanders, as the table indicates, move at about the same rate as other Canadians
(34.0% moved in the past five years versus 35.0% of all Canadians). They are less likely to move within
their current community than other Canadians but that may well be attributable to the relatively small land
areas of PEI municipalities (i.e., small moves are more likely to cross municipal boundaries). More
significantly, a larger proportion arrived as international immigrants (6.6% versus 3.9% of all Canadian
movers).
Table 5-3 Indicators Related to Moving, PEI and Canada,

Changes in household 2018
location are generally the Canada PEI
result of positive changes for Moving Origins Number % Number %
the mover. The leading Moved in the past 5 years 5,238,000 35.0%* 21,100 34.0%
reasons for moving are to From the same city, town, village,
3,194,200 61.0%2 10,600 50.2%
upgrade housing or the township, municipality, or Indian reserve
neighbourhood in which a From a different city, town, village,
township, municipality, or Indian reserve in 1,838,100 35.1% 9,100 43.1%
household is currently located Canada
(27.3% and 19.8% of From outside of Canada 205,000 3.9% 1,400 6.6%
Canadian movers, Plans to move in less than 5 years 3,164,900 60.4% 9,600 45.5%
respectively). The next two Moving Motives
reasons are to become a • Forced to move by a landlord, bank,
330,800 6.3%** 1,500 7.1%
homeowner or because of a other financial institution, or government
change in household size • Due to a natural disaster or fire 30,300 0.6% 0 0.0%
• New job or job transfer 552,000 10.5% 2,700 12.8%
(17.9% and 17.7% of
• New school 240,100 4.6% 700 3.3%
Canadian movers,
• To form own household 641,800 12.3% 2,000 9.5%
respectively). The most
• To be closer to family 482,700 9.2% 2,800 13.3%
important motivation for
• Change in household or family size 926,200 17.7% 3,900 18.5%
moving that is arguably
• To reduce commuting time 424,700 8.1% 1,100 5.2%
negative is to reduce housing
• To upgrade to a larger or better-quality
costs (14.2%), which ranks as 1,427,800 27.3% 4,800 22.7%
dwelling
the fifth most important cause • To reduce housing costs 741,400 14.2% 3,800 18.0%
of moving for all Canadians. • To be in a more desirable neighbourhood 1,036,700 19.8% 4,300 20.4%
The top five reasons for • Personal health reasons 302,300 5.8% 2,000 9.5%
moving were the same for • To become a homeowner 939,500 17.9% 3,000 14.2%
PEI, although becoming a • Other reasons 133,200 2.5% 500 2.4%
homeowner ranked only fifth Notes:
* % of all households in the geography
in PEI and reduction in ** % of movers in the geography
housing costs was fourth. The

Source Statistics Canada, Table 46-10-0044-01
most clearly negative reason
3939
Canadian Association of Movers, “Canadian Moving and Storage Fact Sheet,” undated, Canadian-Moving-Storage-Data.pdf
(getmiboxsystem.com). The numbers suggest Canadians are much less prone to moving than Americans, who according to
similar statistics move 11.7 times on average in the lives. See: Tyler Wood, "Moving Industry Statistics," November 4, 2020,
https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/moving-industry-statistics/
73
to move, being evicted or forced to move, ranked tenth in both Canada and PEI, but occurred with
enough frequency to be concerning in both cases (6.3% and 7.1%, respectively).
Table 5-4 summarizes movers in Queens County in each of the regional subdivisions illustrated in Figure
5-1, above. In terms of absolute numbers and in proportion to its population, the City of Charlottetown is
the primary destination of all movers; however, movers include individuals who have relocated within their
municipality of residence as well as migrants who come from outside the jurisdiction. Both Stratford and
Cornwall draw more migrants (i.e., internal migrants plus external migrants) in proportion to their
population than Charlottetown. Charlottetown, in fact, attracts the least intra-provincial migrants of any of
the areas we have defined in Queens. On the other hand, it is clearly the preferred destination of external
migrants coming to the region from countries other than Canada and just behind Stratford and Cornwall
for migrants moving to Queens from other provinces and territories in Canada.
Table 5-4 Five-year Mobility Status, Queens County and Sub-areas to 2016
West Charlotte- Central SE
Queens West CA town Stratford Cornwall CA East CA Queens TOTAL
TOTAL 8,565 5,200 33,180 9,055 5,040 9,200 2,955 2,720 75,915
Non-movers 6,450 3,900 17,355 5,355 3,160 6,680 2,205 2,090 47,195
Movers 2,140 1,300 15,830 3,695 1,880 2,510 750 630 28,735
Non-migrants 585 365 8,570 1,510 715 785 225 205 12,960
Migrants 1,575 920 7,260 2,190 1,165 1,720 525 435 15,790
• Internal migrants* 1,460 875 4,635 1,660 1,055 1,675 470 400 12,230
− Intra-provincial* 975 565 2,340 840 700 1,140 325 275 7,160
− Interprovincial 495 320 2,295 820 355 545 140 115 5,085
• External migrants 105 45 2,625 530 105 60 55 30 3,555
% of Population
Movers 25.0% 25.0% 47.7% 40.8% 37.3% 27.3% 25.4% 23.2% 37.9%
Migrants 18.4% 17.7% 21.9% 24.2% 23.1% 18.7% 17.8% 16.0% 20.8%
• Internal migrants1 17.0% 16.8% 14.0% 18.3% 20.9% 18.2% 15.9% 14.7% 16.1%
− Intra-provincial1 11.4% 10.9% 7.1% 9.3% 13.9% 12.4% 11.0% 10.1% 9.4%
− Interprovincial 5.8% 6.2% 6.9% 9.1% 7.0% 5.9% 4.7% 4.2% 6.7%
• External migrants 1.2% 0.9% 7.9% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 1.9% 1.1% 4.7%
* Internal migrants are movers changing location within their CSD (municipality) of residence. The numbers recorded
are not reflective of migration within the sub-regional areas defined comprised of multiple CSDs (i.e., other than
Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford). Some movers relocating within a sub-regional area will be recorded as
intra-provincial migrants.
International immigrants constitute 8.9% of Queens County’s population. The proportion is largest in
Charlottetown (12.4%) and tends to decline with distance from the urban centre (Table 5-5). By contrast,
the percentage of immigrants in Canada’s population is 21.9%. Although the Island has traditionally not
been a favoured destination for immigrants, like most of Atlantic Canada, the pattern has been changing
as immigration has risen significantly in the past five years. In the decade from 2001 to 2010, Queens
County attracted over 1,500 immigrants, more than three times the number it drew in each of the two
74
preceding decades. In the five years since 2011, the county welcomed 3,010, or twice as many as the
preceding decade in half the time (Figure 5-6).
Although international immigrants are the smallest group among the three categories of movers we have
noted, the Census provides considerably more information on their characteristics. The age profile in
Table 5-5 illustrates the family-age bias in immigrant groups. On arrival, 11.2% of immigrants up to 2016
were under 5 years, while 21.2% were between 5 and 14 years in comparison to 5.0% and 11.1%,
respectively, of all Queens County residents. While the discrepancy drops for the 15 to 24-year cohort
(15.2% versus 12.7%), it rises markedly for the 25 to 44-year group (40.9% compared to 24.2%). Only a
small proportion of immigrants arrive after 44 years of age (11.0% relative to 47.1% of the County
population).
Table 5-5 Immigration, Queens County and Sub-areas to 2016

West Charlotte- Central SE
Queens West CA town Stratford Cornwall CA East CA Queens TOTAL
Total Population 9,000 5,480 34,765 9,630 5,320 9,550 3,140 2,890 79,775
Non-immigrants 8,455 5,185 29,665 8,565 4,955 9,135 2,985 2,635 71,580
Immigrants 500 300 4,295 925 320 385 130 255 7,110
% Immigrants 5.6% 5.5% 12.4% 9.6% 6.0% 4.0% 4.1% 8.8% 8.9%
• Before 1981 205 70 675 190 55 230 50 145 1,620
• 1981 to 1990 95 20 175 40 25 45 20 20 440
• 1991 to 2000 70 20 245 55 20 20 15 30 475
• 2001 to 2010 85 90 1,010 155 110 45 20 30 1,545
− 2001 to 2005 40 40 220 25 45 20 10 30 430
− 2006 to 2010 65 45 790 125 65 30 0 0 1,120
• 2011 to 2016 45 80 2,185 480 110 50 20 40 3,010
Non-permanent
30 10 805 140 40 10 20 20 1,075
Residents
Age at Immigration
Under 5 years 75 50 375 140 60 55 20 20 795
5 to 14 years 85 60 925 220 65 90 35 50 1,530
15 to 24 years 100 60 640 95 40 55 20 75 1,085
25 to 44 years 185 105 1,845 380 115 15 0 50 85 2,915
45 years and over 40 20 505 85 45 40 10 35 780
More than half of immigrants in the region are from Asia (50.4%), with China the most prominent origin.
English-speaking countries remain a significant component, with the United States and United Kingdom
the leading countries of origin in the Americas and Europe respectively, accounting for 24.2% of
immigrants between them.
Regardless, although international and inter-provincial migration are important, local population
movements involve much larger numbers. Non-migrant movers over the 2011 to 2016 period (i.e., those
who moved within their current census subdivision or municipality of residence) constituted 17.1% of the
population and intra-provincial migration accounted for 9.4% or 26.5% together, relative to 11.4% who
moved from another province or country.
75
Intra-regional migration or moving is motivated by a variety of factors. The most prominent is life cycle
changes. Classically, as we have briefly alluded to at the beginning of this chapter, households forming
and growing families often move to suburban areas where they can usually obtain more accommodation
space and land area at lower cost than in the urban core. As these individuals age, they often return to
urban accommodation. In the past 20 to 40 years, we have found increasing numbers of seniors who
have raised their families gravitate back to central urban areas.
Figure 5-6 Immigration by Period and Origin, Queens County, 1981-2016

3,500
3,010
20
3,000 40 50
480 Immigrant Origins

2,500
Birthplace Immigrants %
Americas 1,100 15.4%
2,000
1,620 • US 860 12.1%
145 1,545
30 Europe 2,120 29.8%
1,500 20 45
50
230 155 2,185 • UK 860 12.1%
190 Africa 305 4.3%
1,000
Asia 3,590 50.4%
1,010
675 440 475
3 • China 1,770 24.9%
500 2 15
20
40 45 55 20 TOTAL 7,120
7055 175 245
20 90
110 80
110
205 20
95 25 70 20 85
0 45
Before 1981- 1991- 2001- 2011-
1981 1990 2000 2010 2016
West Queens West CA Cornwall

Charlottetown Stratford Central CA
East CA SE Queens TOTAL
Source Statistics Canada Tables 13-10-0418-01 and 13-10-0710-01
Our awareness of these tendencies has been influenced by the broad trends that have shaped our
population since the end of World War II. From the 1950s into the 1980s, housing development was
dominated by a wave of suburbanization that accommodated families created through the Baby Boom.
From the 1990s, growing numbers of empty nesters and seniors have revived inner city areas in a quest
for walkable neighbourhoods and specialized housing types.
These overarching trends have many exceptions and qualifications, though. Many seniors, for example,
want to stay in suburban homes and some even seek rural locations farther from the city. Many long-time
rural residents, on the other hand, eventually move to an urban centre for more convenient access to
services, particularly medical care, reinforcing the long-term shift of population from rural to urban areas
that has characterized Canadian demography since Confederation. Today, as well, parents with families,
who are typically older than their counterparts in previous generations, are attracted by the convenience,
walkability, and amenities available in improving urban environments. Examination of local migration
76
tendencies, therefore, can reveal a great deal about the attraction and features of Queens County and its
sub-areas, including the three Capital Region municipalities, from which we can infer motivations for
decisions on housing location and choices of structural types.
5.5 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

From 2001, population distribution has generally been stable. Based on Statistics Canada estimates over
the period the share of Queens County population in the Capital Region has increased from 60.1% to
62.7%. Most of the shift of population came between 2006 and 2011 when the three core municipalities
increased their share from 60.4% to 62.1%. In other Census periods, the Capital Region also increased
its share but by relatively small increments (Table 5-6).
Table 5-6 Population Change, Queens and Capital Region, 2001-2021

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Geography No. No. Change No. Change No. Change No. Change
Charlottetown 32,639 32,674 0.1% 35,625 9.0% 37,237 4.5% 42,793 14.9%
Stratford 6,393 7,205 12.7% 8,873 23.2% 10,029 13.0% 11,744 17.1%
Cornwall 4,456 4,772 7.1% 5,327 11.6% 5,518 3.6% 6,369 15.4%
Capital Region 43,488 44,651 2.7% 49,825 11.6% 52,784 5.9% 60,906 15.4%
Share of Queens 60.1% 60.4% 62.1% 62.4% 62.7%
East CA 2,754 2,882 4.6% 3,079 6.8% 3,234 5.0% 3,695 14.3%
Central CA 8,754 8,824 0.8% 9,337 5.8% 9,791 4.9% 11,467 17.1%
West CA 4,828 5,110 5.8% 5,304 3.8% 5,689 7.3% 6,634 16.6%
Southeast Queens County 3,336 3,251 -2.5% 3,183 -2.1% 3,320 4.3% 3,856 16.1%
West Queens County 9,202 9,157 -0.5% 9,495 3.7% 9,727 2.4% 10,653 9.5%
Queens County 2,754 2,882 4.6% 80,223 8.6% 84,545 5.4% 97,211 15.0%
Source Statistics Canada Estimates 2001-2021
The Charlottetown Area Special Planning Area regulation appears to have contributed to the mitigation of
sprawl, but we would speculate that the attraction of the urban environment has been more important.
Movers from within PEI have been drawn from more rural areas by jobs, urban amenities, and services.
The aging of residents within the region also contributed as older age groups tend to favour locations
near the urban centre as just discussed. Recent migrants from other provinces have been drawn by
relatively inexpensive real estate opportunities as much as by jobs in the urban core. International
immigrants typically settle in urban areas because of the availability of supports and jobs as they
establish themselves in a new environment. Many will stay but some can be expected to move to other
areas in the region and the province, as well as to other locations in Canada.
A key feature of the changing settlement pattern has been the rapid growth of Stratford, which grew by
23.2% from 2006 to 2011, 13.0% from 2011 to 2016, and 17.1% from 2016 to 2021. Development in
Stratford slowed because a large quantity of land was withheld from development by local owners and by
limitations on sewage treatment facilities serving the community. Both issues have since been resolved
and Stratford is now expected to return to a higher level of growth. At the same time, Charlottetown and
Cornwall grew more moderately from 2001 to 2016 but essentially matched Stratford over the past five
77
years, with Charlottetown jumping from 4.5% growth to 14.9%, and Cornwall moving from 3.6% to 15.4%.
A similar jumps were experienced in the rural areas outside the Capital Regions, which increased their
five-year growth rates from less than 10% to the 15% to 20% range, except for the Western County,
which still managed a healthy 9.5% increase.
The issues that dampened development in Stratford are not unique. Charlottetown expanded its
wastewater treatment capacity to meet its needs while also providing additional capacity for Stratford.
Separately, Cornwall has recently developed an additional wellfield to increase water availability for
current residents and future development. The Town is also facing wastewater treatment constraints that
it expects to resolve by dredging its existing treatment lagoons, but it may face similar issues to Stratford
in accessing vacant lands within its boundaries because of a combination of ownership issues,
agricultural land preservation policies, and challenges to extending service networks. Constraints on land
development resulting from policy, technical limitations, ownership issues, resident resistance, and other
concerns may limit the future direction of development. Outlying areas of Queens County can absorb
development that the Capital Region cannot accommodate but on unserviced land at lower density
impacting the traditional rural character and requiring significant investments in roads, utilities, schools,
and community facilities.
5.6 HOUSING TRENDS

Our methodology for estimating future housing is tied to our approach to population projection. In addition
to the size of the population, housing need is most strongly influenced by its age composition. The need
for housing in specific forms and the ability to pay to meet housing needs evolve as people age. When
individuals are young and single, they generally require less space and normally have limited financial
capacity to afford more. As they grow older, start careers, and form families, they need and usually can
afford more space. They often move from an apartment to an attached home (i.e., semi or rowhouse) or a
single-detached home. As families grow many aspire to a single-detached home or to a larger single-
detached home. When children leave the home, down-sizing becomes an option that may be influenced
by physical and financial limitations or a desire to be free of housing responsibilities as aging takes place.
The headship rates we apply to our population estimates reflect these tendencies. The propensity of
individuals to form households increases with age until they become elderly and their likelihood of
heading a household declines to a degree. People in their twenties and thirties are more likely to be
tenants in apartment buildings, although they tend to move to own detached homes throughout this
period. As they age further, the likelihood of owning a detached home increases until post-retirement and
tendencies to downsizing and simplification bring a shift back to apartments (Table 5-7).
5.6.1 National Comparison
While changing age structure in the population significantly shapes housing demands, other factors also
play a part. The costs of housing options, which have changed radically in the Charlottetown region, are
an influential factor as are tastes. While there is no reliable method to predict changes in either, there is a
clear correlation between both and the progress of urban development. As communities grow and
population increases, the need to locate close to key activity centres in the region normally grows.
78
Commutes to work become longer and more time consuming and residents tend to place increasing
value on locations that provide easier access to the downtown and business centres where they work and
shop. Land prices rise in central locations and denser forms of development, particularly apartment
buildings become an attractive proposition for developers both to extract value from expensive land and
to provide accommodation for large numbers who value access over space.
Table 5-7 Primary Household Maintainers by Age Group and Structural Type, Capital
Region, 2016
Age Apt 5+ Apt 1-4 Other Movable

Cohort TOTAL Single storeys Semi Rowhouse Duplex storeys Attached Dwelling
15-24 1,155 110 10 125 110 75 715 0 0
25-34 3,300 1,160 15 425 165 115 1,385 0 45
35-44 3,365 1,930 10 300 180 80 785 10 80
45-54 3,945 2,400 10 370 100 80 910 0 95
55-64 4,310 2,540 0 330 145 85 1,100 0 100
65-74 3,405 1,905 0 300 65 50 980 15 105
75-84 1,735 775 0 135 65 50 675 10 50
85+ 710 245 0 20 10 20 390 10 10
TOTAL 21,950 11,055 55 2,015 840 555 6,930 35 480
Probability of Household Formation
15-24 16.9% 1.6% 0.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0%
25-34 50.4% 17.7% 0.2% 6.5% 2.5% 1.8% 21.2% 0.0% 0.7%
35-44 53.1% 30.4% 0.2% 4.7% 2.8% 1.3% 12.4% 0.2% 1.3%
45-54 56.0% 34.1% 0.1% 5.3% 1.4% 1.1% 12.9% 0.0% 1.3%
55-64 61.5% 36.3% 0.0% 4.7% 2.1% 1.2% 15.7% 0.0% 1.4%
65-74 62.9% 35.2% 0.0% 5.5% 1.2% 0.9% 18.1% 0.3% 1.9%
75-84 62.5% 27.9% 0.0% 4.9% 2.3% 1.8% 24.3% 0.4% 1.8%
85+ 55.7% 19.2% 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 1.6% 30.6% 0.8% 0.8%
TOTAL 50.8% 25.6% 0.1% 4.7% 1.9% 1.3% 16.0% 0.1% 1.1%
Urbanization is advancing in this manner in the Charlottetown area. While shifts among structural types
tend to be modest and gradual, they are taking place in the Capital Region. Although the proportions of
dwelling units in apartments in PEI, Queens County, and the Capital Region are considerably less than
the national norm, there has been a definite shift from single-detached to apartment accommodation
since 2001 (Figure 5-7). In Canada, the share of dwelling units in multi-unit apartments increased
marginally from 27.1% to 27.9% between 2001 and 2016, but on the Island. it increased by 2.3
percentage points from 13.0% to 15.3%, with a slightly larger shift in the Charlottetown CA (2.6
percentage points). Increases in Stratford were even more pronounced (6.9 points) and were
accompanied by moves to units categorized in the Other category (6.2 points), which includes semi-
detached housing and rowhouses. While the shift to apartments in Cornwall was modest (0.4 points), it
showed a similar increase to Stratford in the Other category (5.1 points).
79
Figure 5-7 Percentage Shares by Structural Type, Canada, Queens County, and
Capital Region Sub-areas, 2001-2016
The potential for the housing profile to shift further is considerable. Figure 5-8 provides a simplified
distribution of housing types in high profile Canadian cities and census metropolitan areas in relation to
geographies in Queens County and the Capital Region discussed above. Across Queens County, just
over 20% of dwelling units are in multiple-unit buildings. Within the Capital Region, roughly 31.3% of all
dwelling units are apartments in low and high-rise multi-unit structures, although 37.0% of units in the City
of Charlottetown are in multi-unit apartment buildings.
The proportions in multi-unit buildings are usually much higher in larger centres, particularly large central
cities. Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM), which has a mixture of urban and rural communities like
Queens County, albeit on a significantly larger scale, has 33.4% of dwelling units in apartments. The
Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver CMAs, which also contain mixtures of urban and suburban
development but exclude more distinctly rural areas such as are included in Queens and HRM,
respectively have 50.0%, 39.4%, and 41.9% of units in apartment buildings. Their respective central cities
all have considerably higher proportions at 67.1%, 69.3%, and 65.4%. The numbers demonstrate a clear
direct correlation between population and the emphasis on high-rise accommodation as well as between
central cities in which population is concentrated relative to CAs and CMAs, which include more
dispersed suburban areas, although Montreal, which is famous for walk-up apartment structures, is an
exception to the rule.
80
Figure 5-8 Percentage Shares by Structural Type, Select Canadian Geographies, 2016
Cornwall T 65.4% 6.9% 27.7%

PEI 69.3% 15.3% 15.4%
Stratford T 67.1% 19.8% 13.4%
Queens 64.8% 20.6% 14.5%
Charlottetown CA 59.7% 24.1% 16.2%
Canada 53.6% 27.9% 18.5%
Halifax RM 49.9% 33.4% 16.7%
Charlottetown C 44.5% 37.8% 17.7%
Toronto CMA 39.6% 39.4% 21.0%
Vancouver CMA 29.4% 41.9% 28.8%
Montréal CMA 32.7% 50.0% 17.4%
Toronto CY 24.2% 59.2% 16.6%
Vancouver CY 14.5% 61.5% 24.0%
Montréal CY 11.4% 68.0% 20.6%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Single Apartment Other
Dwelling Apartment Apartment All

Select Geography Units Single 5+ storeys 1-4 storeys Apartments Rank
Canada 14,072,080 11.4% 9.9% 18.0% 27.9%
PEI 59,470 14.5% 0.1% 15.2% 15.3% 12
Queens 33,975 24.2% 0.1% 20.5% 20.6% 10
Charlottetown CA 28,950 32.7% 0.1% 24.0% 24.1% 9
Charlottetown C 16,100 29.4% 0.3% 37.5% 37.8% 7
Stratford T 3,820 39.6% 0.3% 19.5% 19.8% 11
Cornwall T 2,025 44.5% 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 13
Halifax RM 173,460 49.9% 12.1% 21.3% 33.4% 8
Montréal CY 870,370 67.1% 14.5% 53.5% 68.0% 1
Montréal CMA 1,727,310 53.6% 8.8% 41.2% 50.0% 4
Toronto CY 1,112,930 69.3% 44.3% 14.9% 59.2% 3
Toronto CMA 2,135,905 59.7% 29.4% 10.0% 39.4% 6
Vancouver CY 283,915 65.4% 29.3% 32.2% 61.5% 2
Vancouver CMA 960,895 64.8% 16.7% 25.2% 41.9% 5
To further assess the position of Charlottetown, it is interesting to compare the Charlottetown CA to other
census agglomerations of similar size. Figure 5-9 provides the same data as Figure 5-8 for
Charlottetown’s CA and 12 other Canadian CAs with 25,000 to roughly 35,000 dwelling units. In this
grouping of 13 communities, the Charlottetown CA had the fourth highest proportion of dwelling units in
81
apartment structures, following three centres in Quebec (i.e., Saint-Hyacinthe, Shawinigan, and
Rimouski). Charlottetown, however, has a very low proportion of high-rise apartment units, ranking above
only Shawingan in terms of the share of units in structures with five or more storeys. The large variation
among these centres reflects local culture and tastes. Quebecers, for example, have a strong tradition of
apartment living that is prominent in Montreal but is also reflected in medium-sized centres in the
province. Shifts in preferences are also possible, however, and are apparent in Charlottetown as well as
other locations in Atlantic Canada where single-detached homes have been the traditional standard. This
may reflect a more positive view of urban living, a shift in accommodation preferences from quantity to
quality, or economic motivations such as the desire to reduce housing and commuting costs.
Figure 5-9 Percentage Shares by Structural Type, Comparable Census

Agglomerations, 2016
Prince George 63.8% 13.6% 22.7%

Sault Ste. Marie 66.8% 20.2% 13.0%
Medicine Hat 67.4% 16.4% 16.2%
Kawartha Lakes 83.6% 8.9% 7.6%
North Bay 60.4% 20.1% 19.5%
Charlottetown 59.7% 24.1% 16.2%
Saint-Hyacinthe 37.6% 45.1% 17.4%
Shawinigan 52.3% 33.2% 14.5%
Wood Buffalo 50.9% 22.2% 26.8%
Vernon 59.0% 17.1% 23.9%
Cornwall 57.1% 21.9% 21.0%
Norfolk 83.1% 8.0% 8.9%
Rimouski 53.4% 29.6% 17.0%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Single Apartment Other
Census Apartment Apartment All

Agglomeration Dwelling Units Single 5+ storeys 1-4 storeys Apartments Rank
Rimouski 25,455 53.4% 2.4% 27.3% 29.6% 3
Norfolk 26,005 83.1% 1.6% 6.4% 8.0% 13
Cornwall 26,085 57.1% 4.4% 17.5% 21.9% 6
Vernon 26,180 59.0% 1.2% 16.0% 17.1% 9
Wood Buffalo 26,225 50.9% 2.2% 20.0% 22.2% 5
Shawinigan 26,335 52.3% 0.0% 33.2% 33.2% 2
Saint-Hyacinthe 27,005 37.6% 0.5% 44.5% 45.1% 1
Charlottetown 28,950 59.7% 0.1% 24.0% 24.1% 4
North Bay 30,125 60.4% 6.3% 13.8% 20.1% 8
Kawartha Lakes 31,105 83.6% 2.2% 6.7% 8.9% 12
Medicine Hat 31,500 67.4% 0.7% 15.8% 16.4% 10
Sault Ste. Marie 34,530 66.8% 6.1% 14.2% 20.2% 7
Prince George 35,095 63.8% 1.2% 12.4% 13.6% 11
Rimouski 25,455 53.4% 2.4% 27.3% 29.6% 3
82
5.6.2 Changes in Structural Type and Tenure
As the preceding examples demonstrate, denser construction is to be expected as population increases.

Land costs inevitably rise with growth, so that more intensive use of land is required to maintain both
affordability and profitability. It is also important to mitigate other influences such as longer commute
times, the cost of extending roadways and water and sewer networks, and the provision of adequate
open space and community facilities.
From 2001 through 2016, as population in Queens County and the Capital Region grew, the proportion of
households accommodated in different structural types shifted away from single-detached units. Over the
15-year period, the share of dwelling units in detached homes declined by 4.4 percentage points.
Households shifted to semis, rowhouses, and duplex units, which gained 2.7 percentage points, and low-
rise apartments, which increased by 2.5 points. Movable dwellings and other attached units also lost
minor shares totaling 0.8 points (Table 5-8). There is considerable scope for further changes in housing
stock given the patterns in larger urban centres and in select communities of similar size to Charlottetown
in which apartments have traditionally had a large role in housing.
The overall shift from detached units (i.e., single-detached homes and movable dwellings) was
accompanied by a similar shift from ownership, which is the dominant form of tenure for detached
housing to rental, which is usual for apartments. In 2001, owned dwelling units constituted 57.4% of the
housing stock in the Capital Region but, by 2016, dropped to 54.6% or by 2.8 percentage points (4.9%).
As the proportion of owned housing rose to 59.2% in 2006, the more recent trend was a ten-year decline
of 4.6 percentage points (7.8%).
Table 5-8 Housing by Structural Type, Capital Region, 2001-2016

Apt 5+ Apt 1-4 Other Movable
Year TOTAL Single storeys Semi Rowhouse Duplex storeys Attached Dwelling
2001 17,135 9,420 30 1,410 405 420 4,960 60 430
% of Total 100.0% 55.0% 0.2% 8.2% 2.4% 2.5% 28.9% 0.4% 2.5%
2006 18,045 9,835 40 1,625 450 545 5,020 65 455
% of Total 100.0% 54.5% 0.2% 9.0% 2.5% 3.0% 27.8% 0.4% 2.5%
2011 20,165 10,860 55 1,825 690 545 5,715 40 420
% of Total 100.0% 53.9% 0.3% 9.1% 3.4% 2.7% 28.3% 0.2% 2.1%
2016 21,945 11,095 40 2,045 810 600 6,905 35 430
% of Total 100.0% 50.6% 0.2% 9.3% 3.7% 2.7% 31.5% 0.2% 2.0%
Percentage
Point
Change in -4.4 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.3 2.5 -0.2 -0.6
Shares
2001-2016
Source Stantec Consulting Limited
83
5.6.3 Recent Change in the Capital Region
Critical changes have taken place since 2016. While preceding data from the Census of Canada,
establishes that housing patterns in Queens County and the Capital Region have been changing for
some time, the most dramatic changes have been experienced in the past five years as population
increase has accelerated and house prices have escalated. While access to 2021 Census data to be
released in September 2022 will be critical to understanding fully the impact of the last few years,
development permits issued by the local municipalities, which are summarized in Figure 5-10, offer
important insights to recent developments.
Unfortunately, the data is not perfect as the municipalities record building types somewhat differently and
cannot necessarily provide data for the same timeframe. Dwelling unit numbers presented in Figure 5-10
cover 2011 to 2020 for Cornwall and Stratford but only 2013 to 2020 for the City of Charlottetown. In
addition, Charlottetown could only provide a summary of permit data to June 2020. Stantec compiled the
number of dwelling units approved over the balance of the year from weekly building permit reports
posted on the City’s website, which required some interpretation of the text descriptions in the reports. In
general, Stantec compiled the numbers shown from summaries provided in varied formats by each
municipality, which required some interpretation of the records by Stantec staff.
The numbers, nevertheless, clearly reflect an abrupt rise in residential construction in recent years
(Figure 5-11). In 2015, permits for all dwelling unit types started a striking increase, jumping from 183
units in 2015 to 315 in 2016 and increasing in each following year. While construction has increased in all
three dwelling unit categories shown, the most marked rise has clearly been in apartment construction.
With substantial annual increases each year in between, apartment construction grew to nearly four times
its 2015 level by 2019. With the reservation concerning Stantec’s compilation of City of Charlottetown
dwelling unit numbers for the last half of 2020, it appears the steep upward trend has continued into 2020.
Regardless, in the four complete years from 2016 to 2019, the three core municipalities added 2,267
dwelling units according to their permit records, of which 64.8% were in apartment structures. Based on
our count of additional units approved by the City of Charlottetown in the last half of 2020, we calculate,
over a thousand more units of all types were added, further growing the annual increase in housing starts
experienced since 2016.
84
Figure 5-10 Dwelling Units Approved by Structural Type, Charlottetown, Cornwall and
Stratford, Development Permit Data, 2011-2020
Charlottetown 1000 902
Two- Multi- TOTAL
Year Single Unit unit UNITS 800
633
2011 N/A N/A N/A N/A 553
600
428
2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A
400 312
230
2013 49 20 69
143
181
126
164
100
2014 41 22 55 118 118
96
200 77
69
69
57
56
55
49
46
42
41
36
36
35
28
22
22
20
2015 36 6 35 77
6
0
0
2016 42 22 100 164
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017 57 28 96 181
2018 46 36 230 312 Single Two-unit
2019 69 56 428 553
Multi-unit TOTAL UNITS
2020 126 143 633 902
Cornwall 300 255
Two- Multi- TOTAL
Year Single Unit unit UNITS 250
189
2011 26 6 0 32 200
2012 16 10 13 39 130 124
150 118
2013 24 4 23 51
76
100 56
53
51
48
46 49
38
39
37
1836
36
34
34
2014 14 8 24 46
31
32
28
26
26
24
24
4 23
50
16
15
814
13
13
10
10
10
06
2015 13 10 26 49
0
2016 15 10 31 56
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017 36 18 76 130
2018 37 34 53 124 Single Two-unit
2019 28 38 189 255
Multi-unit TOTAL UNITS
2020 34 36 48 118
Stratford 250 221
Two- Multi- TOTAL
Year Single Unit unit UNITS 200 166 168
131
2011 68 22 131 221

150 124
2012 74 14 78 166 105
95
88
86
83 83
78
78
74
100
68
2013 43 4 36 83
60
57 58
49
46
45
45
45
43
36
36
32
2014 45 2 36 83
29
24
22
50
14
2015 29 4 24 57
4
4
2
0
2016 45 4 46 95
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017 60 0 45 105
2018 78 4 86 168
Single Two-unit
2019 32 4 88 124
Multi-unit TOTAL UNTS
2020 49 4 5 58
Source City of Charlottetown, Town of Cornwall, and Town of Stratford some compilation by Stantec
85
Figure 5-11 Dwelling Units Approved by Structural Type, Capital Region, Development
Permit Data, 2011-2020
1,200
1,078
1,000
932
800
686
604
600
705
416
400 369
315
253 247 217 183
205 203
183 177
200 131 115 74
91 59 46 98
28 85
28 24 32 36 209
20 153 161
94 116 100 102 129
90 78
0
2011* 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020**
Single Two-unit Multi-unit TOTAL UNTS
* No data for City of Charlottetown

** Data for City of Charlottetown compiled by Stantec
Source City of Charlottetown, Town of Cornwall and Town of Stratford, some compilation by Stantec
86
6.0 FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSING
Queens and its component areas have been increasing their populations steadily since 2001. In all four
census periods, all three Capital Region municipalities gained population, often in excess of 10% over
five years. More rural areas we have defined in the balance of the region have also generally increased
their numbers. From 2016 to 2021 every part of region grew substantial, ranging from 9.5% in the rural
Western CA to 17.1% in both the Town of Stratford and the Central CA (seen Table 5-6, above).
Based on comparison of 2001 and 2021 population estimates from Statistics Canada population in the
county has grown by 34.3% over the past 20 years. Stratford had the largest increase at 83.7%.
Charlottetown, despite a decrease in its share of residents, grew by 31.1% and Cornwall added 42.9%. In
the balance of the region, the Eastern portion of the CA grew by 34.2%, the Central CA by 31.0%, and
the West CA by 37.4%. The outer areas beyond the CA boundary experienced less growth but the
Southeast area of Queens added 15.6% to its number of residents and the West gained 15.8%.
6.1 POPULATION AND DWELLING UNIT ESTIMATES

To further understand the influence of Stantec-developed population estimates based on the trends
reflected in Statistics Canada population estimates for 2011, 2016, and 2021. All projections of natural
increase incorporate long-term trends in births and deaths for PEI. Migration estimates are developed for
each relevant area based on past census periods. Our initial projection is based on the five years from
2011 to 2016; our second reflects change in the extended period from 2011 to 2021; and the third and
final period reflects the very strong growth experienced since 2016.
Statistics Canada has issued population estimates for Canada, the provinces and territories, census
divisions (Kings, Queens, and Prince Counties in PEI), and all census subdivisions. Numbers for 2021
were developed by extrapolating the 2020 estimates based on annual change reflected in Statistic’s
Canada’s estimates for the preceding four years. Estimates for Canada, PEI, and census division provide
the same detail as census counts. Estimates for census subdivisions are for total populations only but we
can develop age and sex profiles using breakdowns for the Queens County Census Division in which the
subdivisions comprising the region are located.
Our model produces estimates of population by five-year age and sex cohorts. It also generates migration
estimates for the same groupings, which are useful for understanding the sources and impacts of growth,
and its influence on local age structure. Estimates of population and migration are available for each of
the regional sub-areas illustrated in Figure 5-1, above, allowing us to assess not only the change in
overall regional population but also expectations for its future distribution within Queens County.
87
Future Population and Housing
6.1.1 Population Estimates
Figure 6-1 illustrates the three population scenarios created. As noted, although growth in Queens
County and the Capital Region from 2011 to 2016 was strong, it has accelerated since 2016. Scenario 1
based on 2011 to 2016, therefore, results in the smallest population increase of the three generated for
the region. It anticipates growth in Queens County from 97,211 in 2021 to 108,640 by the horizon year of
2041 and from 54,537 to 66,186 in the Capital Region. The second scenario combining the slower rate of
growth between 2011 and 2016 with the increased growth experienced since 2016 results in a stronger
upward trend reflected in an increase in County population to 140,599 and in the Capital Region to
85,701. The third and final scenario focuses on the region’s very robust growth from 2016 to 2021 and
predicts the County will have 189,642 residents and the Capital Region 116,832 by 2041.
Figure 6-1 Population Estimates, Capital Region and Queens County, 2001-2041
200,000 189,642
180,000
159,270
160,000
140,599
134,030
140,000 129,226
118,213 128,101
120,000 113,537
104,569 107,144
107,551 108,640
97,211
100,000 101,386
84,545 87,535 105,905
80,223
72,367 73,875 93,761
80,000 72,647
84,906
68,603 76,619
60,000 69,918 72,236
64,553 67,321
60,906
40,000 49,825 52,784
43,448 44,651
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
2011-2016 Trend 2011-2021 Trend
2016-2021 Trend Capital Region 2011-2016 Trend
Capital Region 2011-2021 Trend Capital Region 2016-2021
Source Statistics Canada Estimates 2001 to 2021, Stantec estimates 2026 to 2041
88
For context, the Province of PEI’s recently produced “Medium Scenario” for future population on the
Island anticipates a 2041 population of 206,080. 40 The Province has not issued sub-provincial estimates
for its counties or municipalities. Our Scenario 1, 2, and 3 estimates for Queens were respectively
developed in the context of predicted Island-wide populations of 162,166, 207,038, 275,564 on the Island
in 2041. The Province’s projection is, therefore, roughly midway between our Scenarios 1 and 3, and very
close to our expectation in Scenario 2 from which it differs by just 958 (0.5% difference).
The key driver behind each projection is migration. Projections of expected birth and death rates are the
same for all three scenarios. They incorporate the influence of recent in-migration on population age and
sex profiles on PEI’s birth and death rates. As summarized in Section 5.4, as well as Figure 5-3, Figure
5-4, and Figure 5-5, above, shifts in age-specific birth rates have tended to balance each other, although
the overall trend has been moderately downward, while death rates have changed moderately. In-
migration, on the other hand, has varied as noted, increasing in the 2011 to 2016 period, relative to
previous years, and strengthening further since 2016 (Figure 6-2).
Since 2006, migration rates into Queens have been strong and rising. In the 2006 to 2011 period shown
in the upper left corner of Figure 6-2, five-year rates for most cohorts other than the 25 to 29 group, were
between 5 and 10%. The 25 to 29 group, however, lost about 9%. With rising rates in subsequent five-
year periods, estimated net migration over the extended period from 2006 to 2021 rose to averages over
10% or even 20%. Over the 15-year period, the region’s attraction has clearly grown. While the broad
profile is similar, with the highest levels of in-migration expected for family-aged cohorts, neutral results
are anticipated for infants, and net out-migration is expected in the older cohorts. The increase in in
migration since 2016 is particularly noteworthy with high rates of in migrations in all groups from 5 to 55
years and spectacular percentages for young adults in their twenties.
The trends apparent in the three periods on which our estimates have been based can be summarized as
follows:
• Scenario 1 (2011 to 2016) – Migration estimates for the last complete census period, which were
used to generate Scenario 1, indicate Queens County gained population in nearly all age groups
with substantial increases in family-aged cohorts from 30 to 49 years of age and the associated
youth and young adult cohorts from 5 to 24. The infant age group was essentially neutral with
modest out-migration of females balanced by stronger in-migration of males. The county also
experienced out-migration among 25- to 29-year-old males and in some cohorts over 80 years.
• Scenario 2 (2011 to 2021) – Migration rates for the 2011 to 2021 are the average of the 2011 to
2016 and 2016 to 2021 periods. Estimates of net migration still indicate strong in-migration to the
region in most age cohorts. The only groups showing net population losses are 50 to 54, for
which moderate outflow is estimated, and the groups from 75 to 89, for which we have estimated
net out-migration from the region in all the periods we have examined. The groups showing the
40
Prince Edward Island Statistics Bureau, Department of Finance, Economics, Statistics and Federal Fiscal Relations, "Prince
Edward Island Population Projections, 2021-2060," March 4, 2021.
89
largest percentage increases are young children from 5 to 9 and young adults from 20 to 24,
although net in-migration was substantial in all age groups between 5 and 50.
Figure 6-2 Five-year Net Migration Estimates, Queens County, Scenario 1, 2001-2016
and 2011-2016
2006-2011 2011-2016
90+ -0.9% 90+ 17.4%

4.8% 12.0%
85-89 1.7% 85-89 8.9%
5.9% 4.7%
80-84 0.2% 80-84 0.2%
2.5% -0.7%
75-79 -1.2% 75-79 2.7%
3.1% -1.2%
70-74 1.1% 70-74 2.7%
3.7% 1.8%
65-69 5.9% 65-69 3.8%
3.6% 2.2%
60-64 9.8% 60-64 4.9%
9.3% 5.2%
55-59 8.6% 55-59 2.0%
6.9% 2.7%
50-54 9.1% 50-54 0.0%
5.6% 2.3%
45-49 10.5% 45-49 4.2%
10.4% 2.6%
40-44 10.5% 40-44 7.7%
13.5% 9.0%
35-39 10.4% 35-39 7.1%
13.7% 11.0%
30-34 2.5% 30-34 3.5%
3.7% 8.2%
25-29 -8.9% -11.4%
25-29 -13.9%
-8.5%
20-24 10.7% 20-24 7.8%
14.0% 7.5%
15-19 11.3% 15-19 7.0%
11.5% 11.6%
10-14 9.8% 10-14 8.1%
9.1% 10.7%
5-9 10.9% 5-9 13.3%
10.5% 15.9%
0-4 3.0% 0-4 1.9%
6.2% 2.4%
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
Males Females Males Females
2011-2021
z
2016-2021
90+ 21.5%
6.7%
85-89 15.8%
1.9%
80-84 0.3%
2.1%
75-79 1.6%
-0.1%
70-74 4.9%
2.4%
65-69 2.4%
0.7%
60-64 3.0%
2.6%
55-59 2.7%
2.4%
50-54 3.3%
4.1%
45-49 8.6%
7.3%
40-44 11.9%
11.2%
35-39 12.9%
13.5%
30-34 9.7%
13.4%
25-29 20.8%
9.6%
20-24 43.5%
25.5%
15-19 13.1%
14.3%
10-14 12.3%
13.9%
5-9 14.9%
16.6%
0-4 3.0%
2.9%
-20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
Males Females
Source Stantec Consulting Ltd.
90
• Scenario 3 (2016-2021) – In the second half of the decade, in-migration to the region increased
significantly from the strong levels experienced between 2011 and 2016. Whereas five-year net
migration rates generally ranged from 5% to 15% between 2011 and 2016, many cohorts saw in-
migration move into the 15% to 20% range, including the previously weak 25 to 29-year cohort,
for which our model estimates female in-migration at 18.3% and male in-migration at 26.3%. Most
remarkably, in-migration of females 20 to 24 reached 40.3% and for males hit 52.7%. While in-
migration of groups over 50 weakened considerably, it was more than out-weighed by the rise of
young adult and family-aged in-migration.
The scenarios are presented following in terms of the resulting population age profiles and the distribution
of residents within the region. Since 2006, the region has gained residents through migration who are in
their reproductive years. These new residents, furthermore, have brought children with them who not only
augment the increase in population but are also growing into young adults who can be expected to
replenish the local population when they form families and become parents.
6.1.2 Dwelling Unit Estimates
As previously explained, population estimates can be employed to develop future housing estimates by
applying age-specific headship rates to calculate the number of dwelling units in each of nine structural
types recognized by Statistics Canada. Our projection of dwelling units in the region was developed from
our population estimates. Estimates show the influence of differing population age profiles associated
with each scenario based on household formation rates associated with each ten-year age cohort
beginning at age 15 for each of the region’s sub-areas. For the future, we assumed a 1.5% increase in
rates of household formation and a shift of 1.0% from detached homes to attached and apartment units
over each five-year census period.
To 2016, our dwelling unit estimates are based on past census counts of structural types in the region
adjusted to Statistics Canada estimates. For 2021, we estimated dwelling unit counts by multiplying our
short-term projection of Statistics Canada population estimates from 2016 to 2020 to 2021 and the
headship rates derived from 2016 Census data. We assumed the same 1.5% increase in household
formation and 1.0% shift from single-detached homes to attached and apartment units as we carried to
our estimates from 2021 to 2041. We further adjusted our estimates for the Capital Region to incorporate
a 3.75% shift from ownership to rental in each five-year period to reflect continuation of the move from
owned to rental accommodation documented from 2006 to 2016 and strongly suggested by building
permit data since 2016.
Our estimates, therefore, assume 40,050 dwelling units in Queens County in 2021 and 25,836 in the
Capital Region in all scenarios before applying trends from the 2011 to 2016, 2011 to 2021, and 2016 to
2021 periods to generate alternative scenarios for the 2026 to 2041 period (Figure 6-3) in the same
manner as we employed to develop population estimates. The three future estimates range from 48,345
dwelling units in Queens County and 32,461 in the Capital Region by 2041 in Scenario 1 based on trends
from 2011 to 2016 to 80,759 and 54,685 in Scenario 3 based on the more recent 2016 to 2021 period.
Scenario 2 combining the two periods (i.e., 2011 to 2021) to create a scenario between the two extremes,
anticipates 61,178 dwelling units in Queens and 41,217 in the Capital Region by the 2041 horizon year.
91
Figure 6-3 Dwelling Unit Estimates, Queens County and the Capital Region, 2016-2041
90,000
80,759
80,000
70,000 67,026
60,000 55,974 61,178

55,609 54,685
50,000 47,210 50,189
47,149 48,345
40,050 45,193 45,063 44,933
40,000 43,174 41,217
33,975 36,962 37,039
30,850 33,039
30,000 29,433
31,230 32,461
28,014 29,568
20,000 25,836
21,950
10,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Queens 2011-2016 Trend Queens 2011-2021 Trend

Queens 2016-2021 Trend Capital Region 2011-2016 Trend
Capital Region 2011-2021 Trend Capital Region 2016-2021 Trend
Source Statistics Canada Estimates 2001 to 2021, Stantec estimates 2026 to 2041
6.2 SCENARIO 1
Scenario 1, which is based on the experience of PEI, Queens County, and the Capital Region from 2011
to 2016, predicts the smallest population increase of the three scenarios created. It also anticipates
continued population aging, which has been a long-standing demographic issue for PEI, as it has been
for most of Atlantic Canada. A third key feature is the strong growth of the Town of Stratford, which
increased its population by 23.1% between 2011 and 2016 or nearly twice as much as the Town of
Cornwall, the next fastest growing area in the region. This rapid growth is reflected in the allocation of a
large share of future population to Stratford in the scenario.
92
Age Profile
Applying 2011 to 2016 trends, we anticipate population in Queens County and the Capital Region will
continue to age. While we expect population to rise moderate, we also anticipate a continued shift from
the youngest age cohorts to the oldest. Between 2001 and 2021, the proportion of youth from 0 to 14
years of age in the Capital Region fell from 17.7% to 15.4%, although it held static at 15.4% from 2016 to
2021. At the same time, the share of population represented by seniors over 65 years of age grew from
14.4% to 18.5% (Figure 6-4).
Applying 2011 to 2016 trends, our model calculates that both shifts will continue with the share of youth
falling to 13.4% by 2041 and the proportion of seniors rising to 20.9% over the same period. The
dependency ratio or the proportion of dependents (youth 0 to 14 and seniors 65 and over) to the working
age population (15 to 64) will increase from 51.3 per hundred of working age in 2021 to 57.0, continuing
the established upward trend (the ratio was 47.3 in 2001).
This feature of the region’s population profile, which means that proportionately more dependents will rely
on relatively fewer workers over time, is inevitable without significant in-migration. It is a function of Baby
Boomers first moving out of child-rearing age groups beginning in the 1990s and now into old age. This
large group, which is currently between 55 and 75 years of age and constitutes about a quarter of the
region’s population, can no longer contribute to natural increase. The only available means to increase
births in the population is through raising the birth rate among younger adults already in the region and/or
attracting immigrants with families or in age groups with the potential for additional births.
Birth rates have trended downward, but increased immigration to the region has brought families with
children. In-migration from 2011 to 2016 encouraged a slight increase in the proportion of youth and
young adults in the Capital Region; however, a long-term decline is expected to begin in 2026 as the
population continues to age and deaths in the large population of elderly residents exceeds births to the
current relatively smaller generation of young adults. The projection suggests that, while the period
between 2011 and 2016 saw increased in-migration to Queens and the Capital Region, it was not
sufficient to overcome the long-term effect of declining reproductive capacity in the domestic population,
which we have noted has already taken hold (see Subsection 5.4.3 above).
Intra-regional Distribution
Examination of the 2011 to 2016 estimates for the region’s three central municipalities signals their
specific roles. The City of Charlottetown reflected similar tendencies to the region as a whole with the
highest levels of in-migration in youth, young adult, and family aged cohorts, but with out-migration in the
20 to 29 and 30 to 34-year groups. In contrast to the wider county, however, the city experienced very
high out- migration of infants (0 to 4 years) compared to essentially neutral estimates for the region and
significant in-migration in senior citizen age groups in which the region as a whole loses numbers (Figure
A-2 in Appendix A). Movement by infants is normally associated with migration of new families, who
typically move from cities to suburbs.
93
Figure 6-4 Population by Age Group, Capital Region, Scenario 1, 2001-2041

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 7,696 7,322 7,762 8,138 9,399 9,120 9,555 9,878 9,684
15-24 6,474 6,543 7,274 7,068 8,152 8,010 8,063 8,032 8,388
25-34 5,741 5,451 5,980 6,758 7,795 10,911 8,971 7,586 7,888
35-44 6,454 6,117 6,507 6,547 7,560 8,402 10,669 12,314 10,736
45-54 6,579 6,726 7,471 7,270 8,390 7,588 7,990 8,854 11,142
55-64 4,253 5,563 6,852 7,233 8,344 7,282 7,263 7,501 7,929
65-74 3,028 3,464 4,164 5,587 6,447 7,046 7,463 7,457 7,414
75-84 2,278 2,367 2,553 2,865 3,303 4,556 5,371 5,724 6,034
85+ 944 1,097 1,263 1,316 1,516 1,637 1,976 2,573 3,022
TOTAL 43,448 44,651 49,825 52,784 60,906 64,553 67,321 69,918 72,236
% Change 2.8% 11.6% 5.9% 15.4% 6.0% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3%
Proportions of Total Population
0-14 17.7% 16.4% 15.6% 15.4% 15.4% 14.1% 14.2% 14.1% 13.4%
15-24 14.9% 14.7% 14.6% 13.4% 13.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.5% 11.6%
25-34 13.2% 12.2% 12.0% 12.8% 12.8% 16.9% 13.3% 10.8% 10.9%
35-44 14.9% 13.7% 13.1% 12.4% 12.4% 13.0% 15.8% 17.6% 14.9%
45-54 15.1% 15.1% 15.0% 13.8% 13.8% 11.8% 11.9% 12.7% 15.4%
55-64 9.8% 12.5% 13.8% 13.7% 13.7% 11.3% 10.8% 10.7% 11.0%
65-74 7.0% 7.8% 8.4% 10.6% 10.6% 10.9% 11.1% 10.7% 10.3%
75-84 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 7.1% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4%
85+ 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.7% 4.2%
Source Statistics Canada Estimates 2001 to 2016; Stantec estimate 2021; and Stantec estimates 2026 to 2041
94
As a suburban area, Cornwall was attractive to family-aged residents from 30 to 44 years with infants as
well as children but lost significant numbers of young adults from 15 to 29 years. The town had mixed
results in older age groups. Age cohorts over 64 years include some that gained and others that lost
population, although out-migration in the oldest age group was pronounced.
Stratford, as the fastest growing municipality in the region, attracted net in-migration in nearly every age
group with out-migration estimated only for some cohorts of males over 80. The town was very attractive
for youth, young adult, and family-aged groups. Indeed, for cohorts from infants to 55 years of age, our
five-year estimates of in-migration for the town generally exceed 10% and top 25 or 30% in many cases.
Broadly, estimates suggest Charlottetown attracted more mature families with children, explained by the
high levels of in-migration from 5 to 19 and the substantial out-migration of infants associated with
younger families. Presumably, many families adding babies moved to Stratford and Cornwall where in-
migration levels for infants were high. Charlottetown, surprisingly, did not have a significant attraction for
individuals from 25 to 34, although it did very well with the preceding 20 to 24 group. The city likely
attracts the latter cohort through UPEI, Holland College, and other education opportunities, as well as
with entry-level jobs. It is surprising that job opportunities are not sufficient for others in their late twenties,
but it would appear the suburban municipalities and, perhaps, farther outlying areas drew some family-
forming young adults away at that age. The attraction of the city for the oldest seniors reflects a common
tendency in urban regions in which the elderly to move to more walkable central areas where health
services also tend to be more accessible.
Cornwall and Stratford were and continue to be destinations for expanding families. Stratford’s attraction
from 2011 to 2016 is clear. The town drew all groups. Cornwall, on the other hand, attracted in-migrants
within a relatively narrow age band. In-migration rates to Stratford were also higher than those for
Cornwall in most age groups, and Cornwall lost young adults, while Stratford attracted them. One factor
underlying the latter feature may be the relatively quick access from Stratford to Holland College, which is
near the Hillsborough Bridge in Charlottetown. The UPEI campus, on the other hand, is roughly
equidistant from the two towns.
Outlying areas of Queens all attracted families and children. The central and western areas (Central CA,
West CA, and West Queens) attracted older families but lost young adults and the elderly. The East CA
and Southeast Queens County attracted in migrants in most age groups with family-aged adults
accounting for the highest rates (see Figure A-2 in Appendix A).
95
Figure 6-5 Population by Municipalities and Sub-areas, Queens County and Sub-
areas, Scenario 1, 2001-2041
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Stratford Charlottetown Cornwall

East CA Central CA West CA
Southeast Queens West Queens Queens County
Community/Area 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Stratford 6,387 7,205 8,873 10,029 11,744 14,371 17,535 21,150 25,058
Charlottetown 32,594 32,674 35,625 37,237 42,793 43,761 43,415 42,508 41,128
Cornwall 4,466 4,772 5,327 5,518 6,369 6,421 6,371 6,259 6,049
Capital Region 43,448 44,651 49,825 52,784 60,906 64,553 67,321 69,918 72,236
% Change 2.8% 11.6% 5.9% 15.4% 6.0% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3%
East CA 2,780 2,882 3,079 3,234 3,695 3,728 3,754 3,731 3,649
Central CA 8,812 8,824 9,337 9,791 11,467 11,600 11,615 11,387 10,866
West CA 4,809 5,110 5,304 5,689 6,634 6,881 7,098 7,184 7,117
Southeast Queens 3,314 3,251 3,183 3,320 3,856 4,140 4,496 4,944 5,350
West Queens 9,204 9,157 9,495 9,727 10,653 10,484 10,286 9,981 9,422
Queens County 72,367 73,875 80,223 84,545 97,211 101,386 104,569 107,144 108,640
% Change 2.1% 8.6% 5.4% 15.0% 4.3% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4%
Proportions of Queens County Population
Stratford 8.8% 9.8% 11.1% 11.9% 12.1% 14.2% 16.8% 19.7% 23.1%
Charlottetown 45.0% 44.2% 44.4% 44.0% 44.0% 43.2% 41.5% 39.7% 37.9%
Cornwall 6.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6%
Capital Region 60.0% 60.4% 62.1% 62.4% 62.7% 63.7% 64.4% 65.3% 66.5%
East CA 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4%
Central CA 12.2% 11.9% 11.6% 11.6% 11.8% 11.4% 11.1% 10.6% 10.0%
West CA 6.6% 6.9% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.6%
Southeast Queens 4.6% 4.4% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9%
West Queens 12.7% 12.4% 11.8% 11.5% 11.0% 10.3% 9.8% 9.3% 8.7%
96
The increase in Stratford was substantial and began to strain the town’s capacity to accommodate more
population. Our Scenario 1 estimates for the 2021 to 2041 censuses suggest that Stratford will increase
its proportion of the county’s population by 2 to 3 percentage points in each future five-year census
period, growing from a 2021 share of 12.1% to 23.1% in 2041. By contrast, although the City of
Charlottetown grew significantly from 2011 to 2016, our Scenario 1 projection predicts that it will lose
population over the next 20 years and its share of population will decrease substantially from 44.0% in
2021 to 37.9% in 2041. The Town of Cornwall, for its part, is projected to increase marginally from 6.6%
of the region’s population in 2021 to 5.6% in 2041. The East CA is also expected to continue with a fixed
share of the region’s population (3.8%) but other outlying areas, despite absolute gains in population, are
expected to see their shares decline.
Recent shifts and projected change do not suggest sprawl is a significant factor. The Capital Region will
increase its share of Queens County’s population from 62.7% in 2021 to 66.5% in 2041; however, the
gains will be entirely taken by Stratford.
Housing Needs
Although we expect the number of units to increase in every dwelling unit category under Scenario 1, our
detailed projection of housing types suggests an eventual increase in the proportion of single-detached
homes in the Capital Region and decreasing proportions of attached housing and apartments (Figure
6-6). While we have estimated a decrease in the proportion of dwelling units classified as single-detached
between 2016 and 2021 and project that it will continue moderately through 2041, Scenario 1 assumes
more moderate future in-migration from now to 2041 than in the past five years. Without the continued
influx of large numbers of in-migrants, population will age as we have noted. Although the majority of
recent in migrants will move into age cohorts in which individuals tend to favour ownership of single-
detached homes (i.e., 35 to 55 years), the bulk of the population will advance to stages in which
downsizing will become a factor. Even when sub-areas are examined in detail, shifts are modest (Figure
A-3 in Appendix A).
Our model projects the restoration of the share of housing in single-detached units to 50.9% in 2036 and
a further slight increase to 51.0% in 2041. Given that roughly 90% of single-detached units are typically
owned as opposed to rented, rates of ownership are projected to follow a similar pattern, with the ratio
between ownership and rental rising to 54.8/45.2 in 2041. For the balance of Queens County, where
detached homes have traditionally accounted for more than 90% of all housing, application of the 2011 to
2016 trend suggests a very slight increase in the share of single-detached dwellings and an increase in
the percentage owned homes from 80.4% in 2016 to 82.6% in 2041.
Unsurprisingly, the changing geographic distribution of housing units mirrors the expected distribution of
population. We expect all areas of the region to have significantly more dwelling units in 2041 than they
had in 2016 (Figure 6-7). In Scenario 1, we anticipate Stratford will increase its proportion of the region’s
dwelling units from 10.7% to 17.6%, while Charlottetown’s share will decline by 2.3 percentage points
from 2021 to 2041. Cornwall, on the other hand, is expected to increase its share by a percentage point
from 5.8% to 6.8%. Although the number of dwelling units is expected to increase in areas outside the
Capital Region, the shares of housing in all the rural areas are expected to decline.
97
Figure 6-6 Dwelling Units by Structural Type, Capital Region, Scenario 1, 2016-2041
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Single Apt 5+ storeys Semi

Rowhouse Duplex Apt 1-4 storeys
Other Attached Movable Dwelling TOTAL
Census Apt 5+ Apt 1-4 Other Movable

2016 21,950 11,055 55 2,015 840 555 6,930 35 480
2021 25,836 12,713 40 2,423 1,050 693 8,344 25 550
2026 28,014 13,763 40 2,645 1,137 746 9,054 27 603
2031 29,568 14,683 37 2,848 1,200 771 9,360 28 641
2036 31,230 15,889 35 2,819 1,267 795 9,709 28 688
2041 32,461 16,571 35 2,906 1,303 820 10,091 27 708
Proportions of Total Dwelling Units
2016 50.4% 0.3% 9.2% 3.8% 2.5% 31.6% 0.2% 2.2%
2021 49.2% 0.2% 9.4% 4.1% 2.7% 32.3% 0.1% 2.1%
2026 49.1% 0.1% 9.4% 4.1% 2.7% 32.3% 0.1% 2.2%
2031 49.7% 0.1% 9.6% 4.1% 2.6% 31.7% 0.1% 2.2%
2036 50.9% 0.1% 9.0% 4.1% 2.5% 31.1% 0.1% 2.2%
2041 51.0% 0.1% 9.0% 4.0% 2.5% 31.1% 0.1% 2.2%
Ratio Owned/Rented
2016 54.6/45.4 91.9/8.1 0.0/100.0 13.5/86.5 36.1/63.9 16.1/83.9 31.8/68.2 4.8/95.2 57.1/42.9
2021 55.5/44.5 92.1/7.9 0.0/100.0 14.5/85.5 38.7/61.3 16.8/83.2 36.5/63.5 5.3/94.7 75.7/24.3
2026 54.5/45.5 90.7/9.3 0.0/100.0 15.3/84.7 36.6/63.4 15.6/84.4 34.3/65.7 6.6/93.4 80.3/19.7
2031 54.0/46.0 90.0/10.0 0.0/100.0 15.5/84.5 36.5/63.5 16.1/83.9 34.3/65.7 6.8/93.2 81.8/18.2
2036 54.8/45.2 89.8/10.2 0.0/100.0 16.3/83.7 37.1/62.9 16.7/83.3 34.9/65.1 7.5/92.5 80.4/19.6
2041 54.8/45.2 89.2/10.8 0.0/100.0 16.6/83.4 37.4/62.6 16.9/83.1 34.1/65.9 7.7/92.3 77.3/22.7
Source Stantec estimates 2016 and 2021; Stantec estimates 2026 to 2041
98
Figure 6-7 Dwelling Units, Queens County and Sub-Areas, Scenario 1, 2016-2041
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Census Queens Charlotte- Corn- Capital East Central West Southeast West
Year County Stratford town wall Region CA CA CA Queens Queens
2016 36,930 3,944 17,394 2,147 23,485 1,370 4,138 2,288 1,372 4,276
2021 41,499 4,429 19,810 2,389 26,628 1,525 4,590 2,506 1,509 4,740
2026 46,197 5,693 21,782 2,827 30,302 1,703 5,137 2,620 1,465 5,092
2031 50,131 6,949 23,259 3,192 33,401 1,832 5,602 2,655 1,404 5,237
2036 53,657 8,392 24,574 3,564 36,530 1,935 5,905 2,676 1,311 5,300
2041 56,685 9,978 25,757 3,840 39,576 2,002 6,023 2,641 1,236 5,207
Proportions of Queens County
2016 10.7% 47.1% 5.8% 63.6% 3.7% 11.2% 6.2% 3.7% 11.6%
2021 10.7% 47.7% 5.8% 64.2% 3.7% 11.1% 6.0% 3.6% 11.4%
2026 12.3% 47.2% 6.1% 65.6% 3.7% 11.1% 5.7% 3.2% 11.0%
2031 13.9% 46.4% 6.4% 66.6% 3.7% 11.2% 5.3% 2.8% 10.4%
2036 15.6% 45.8% 6.6% 68.1% 3.6% 11.0% 5.0% 2.4% 9.9%
2041 17.6% 45.4% 6.8% 69.8% 3.5% 10.6% 4.7% 2.2% 9.2%
99
6.3 SCENARIO 2
Scenario 2 is based on the overall trend in population growth and change in Queens County from 2011 to
2021. It combines the healthy growth trend of the first half of the decade with the even stronger expansion
experienced since its mid-way point. Further increases in family-aged immigrants during the 2016 to 2021
period mitigated aging in the population.
Age Profile
The most striking feature of the Capital Region’s population change between 2011 and 2021 is the
increase in the proportion of residents between 15 and 44 years. Based on our estimates for 2021, the
age groups increased their share of the region’s population from 38.6% in 2016 to 46.4% in 2021 (Figure
6-8). The age span, as noted, is critical to population growth because it covers the female cohorts
capable of reproduction.
The influence of young adult and family-aged adults on future population is strong. In addition to the direct
effect of their continued in-migration, they can be expected to add their offspring to the population. The
influence is not sufficient to increase the proportion of children in the population, but it is adequate to
stabilize the downward trend in the proportion of youth evident since 2001.
We expect residents 14 and under will account for 13.4% of the population in 2041, almost the same as
their estimated share in 2026, which was down from 15.4% in 2016 and 2021. The other group in addition
to the 15- to 44-year-old core that will increase proportionately, is older seniors over 75 years of age, who
we calculate will increase from 7.9% to 10.2% of the Capital Region population between 2021 and 2041
extending an upward trend that stretches back to 2001. The dependency ratio will decline slightly from its
2021 level of 51.3 to 46.0 by 2041.
With heightened growth across the region, all areas will see increased population. While Stratford is
expected to increase its share of Queens County’s population, it will not be as dominant in Scenario 2 as
in Scenario 1 with anticipated growth 20.2% of the region in 2041 compared to 23.1% in Scenario 1.
Despite large increases in their respective populations, the City of Charlottetown and Town of Cornwall
are projected to see their shares decrease marginally dropping by 3.2 and 0.9 percentage points,
respectively, between 2016 and 2041. All other areas of the region are expected to lose share despite
adding population, as the three municipalities of the Capital Region, together, are expected to increase
their share of Queens’ population from 62.7% in 2021 to 66.7% in 2041 (Figure 6-9).
100

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 7,696 7,322 7,762 8,138 9,399 9,273 10,206 11,471 12,584
15-24 6,474 6,543 7,274 7,068 8,152 9,706 10,259 10,474 10,991
25-34 5,741 5,451 5,980 6,758 7,795 12,604 14,165 14,753 15,461
35-44 6,454 6,117 6,507 6,547 7,560 8,622 11,140 14,731 17,093
45-54 6,579 6,726 7,471 7,270 8,390 7,753 8,449 9,583 12,198
55-64 4,253 5,563 6,852 7,233 8,344 7,263 7,268 7,685 8,382
65-74 3,028 3,464 4,164 5,587 6,447 7,107 7,483 7,436 7,453
75-84 2,278 2,367 2,553 2,865 3,303 4,654 5,651 6,131 6,408
85+ 944 1,097 1,263 1,316 1,516 1,622 1,997 2,642 3,191
TOTAL 43,448 44,651 49,825 52,784 60,906 68,603 76,619 84,906 93,761
% Change 2.8% 11.6% 5.9% 15.4% 12.6% 11.7% 10.8% 10.4%
Proportions of Total Population
0-14 17.7% 16.4% 15.6% 15.4% 15.4% 13.5% 13.3% 13.5% 13.4%
15-24 14.9% 14.7% 14.6% 13.4% 13.4% 14.1% 13.4% 12.3% 11.7%
25-34 13.2% 12.2% 12.0% 12.8% 12.8% 18.4% 18.5% 17.4% 16.5%
35-44 14.9% 13.7% 13.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.6% 14.5% 17.3% 18.2%
45-54 15.1% 15.1% 15.0% 13.8% 13.8% 11.3% 11.0% 11.3% 13.0%
55-64 9.8% 12.5% 13.8% 13.7% 13.7% 10.6% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
65-74 7.0% 7.8% 8.4% 10.6% 10.6% 10.4% 9.8% 8.8% 7.9%
75-84 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 6.8% 7.4% 7.2% 6.8%
85+ 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.1% 3.4%
101
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Community/Area 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Stratford 6,387 7,205 8,873 10,029 11,744 14,575 18,284 22,835 28,372
Charlottetown 32,594 32,674 35,625 37,237 42,793 47,158 51,067 54,406 57,329
Cornwall 4,466 4,772 5,327 5,518 6,369 6,870 7,269 7,664 8,060
Capital Region 43,448 44,651 49,825 52,784 60,906 68,603 76,619 84,906 93,761
% Change 2.8% 11.6% 5.9% 15.4% 12.6% 11.7% 10.8% 10.4%
East CA 2,780 2,882 3,079 3,234 3,695 3,952 4,189 4,435 4,652
Central CA 8,812 8,824 9,337 9,791 11,467 12,445 13,401 14,325 15,130
West CA 4,809 5,110 5,304 5,689 6,634 7,265 7,929 8,611 9,284
West Queens 9,204 9,157 9,495 9,727 10,653 10,885 11,053 11,191 11,241
Queens County 72,367 73,875 80,223 84,545 97,211 107,551 118,213 129,226 140,599
% Change 2.1% 8.6% 5.4% 15.0% 10.6% 9.9% 9.3% 8.8%
Stratford 8.8% 9.8% 11.1% 11.9% 12.1% 13.6% 15.5% 17.7% 20.2%
Charlottetown 45.0% 44.2% 44.4% 44.0% 44.0% 43.8% 43.2% 42.1% 40.8%
Cornwall 6.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7%
Capital Region 60.0% 60.4% 62.1% 62.4% 62.7% 63.8% 64.8% 65.7% 66.7%
East CA 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3%
Central CA 12.2% 11.9% 11.6% 11.6% 11.8% 11.6% 11.3% 11.1% 10.8%
West CA 6.6% 6.9% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6%
West Queens 12.7% 12.4% 11.8% 11.5% 11.0% 10.1% 9.4% 8.7% 8.0%
102
Housing Needs
In Scenario 2, we expect housing to shift moderately to increased away from single-detached units to
2031 but then return to its current level by 2041. We expect the share of single-detached dwelling units in
the Capital Region to continue to fall to 48.5% in the next five years to 2026 but calculate that it will begin
to recover in 2031, gradually returning to its 2016 level of 50.4% of all housing units by 2041, as the
proportion of family-aged residents in the region increases.
In parallel, the share of dwelling units in low- and high-rise apartment structures is estimated to increase
from 32.5% to 32.9% between 2021 and 2026 but drop slightly to 32.7% in 2031 and continue to slide
moderately to 31.2% in 2041 (Figure 6-10). The ratio of owned to rented dwellings will move slowly
downward from the current 55.5/44.5 to 54.1/45.9 to 2041.
As with population, the area growing its share of dwelling units the most is expected to be the Town of
Stratford, although the rise is less than in Scenario 1. We calculate the town will increase its share of the
region’s housing from 10.7% in 2016 to 17.6% by 2041 (Figure 6-11). We also expect Cornwall to
increase its share of the region’s housing, moving from 5.8% of the region’s dwelling units today to 6.8%
in 2041. Although we expect Charlottetown’s share to decline from 47.7% in 2021 to 45.4% in 2041, the
Capital Region should increase its proportion of Queens housing stock from 64.2% in 2021 to 69.8% by
2041. Shares in all areas outside the Capital Region are expected to lose share, with the largest decline
in the outlying areas of the county, particularly in West Queens, which is projected to see its proportion of
dwelling units drop by 2.2 percentage points.
103
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041


2016 21,950 11,055 55 2,015 840 555 6,930 35 480
2021 25,836 12,713 40 2,423 1,050 693 8,344 25 550
2026 29,433 14,278 46 2,811 1,218 801 9,629 27 624
2031 33,039 16,068 50 3,173 1,389 902 10,729 28 699
2036 37,039 18,353 53 3,484 1,574 999 11,756 28 792
2041 41,217 20,754 57 3,836 1,754 1,102 12,799 27 888
2016 50.4% 0.3% 9.2% 3.8% 2.5% 31.6% 0.2% 2.2%
2021 49.2% 0.2% 9.4% 4.1% 2.7% 32.3% 0.1% 2.1%
2026 48.5% 0.2% 9.5% 4.1% 2.7% 32.7% 0.1% 2.1%
2031 48.6% 0.2% 9.6% 4.2% 2.7% 32.5% 0.1% 2.1%
2036 49.6% 0.1% 9.4% 4.2% 2.7% 31.7% 0.1% 2.1%
2041 50.4% 0.1% 9.3% 4.3% 2.7% 31.1% 0.1% 2.2%
Ratio Owned/Rented
2016 54.6/45.4 91.9/8.1 0.0/100.0 13.5/86.5 36.1/63.9 16.1/83.9 31.8/68.2 4.8/95.2 57.1/42.9
2021 55.5/44.5 92.1/7.9 0.0/100.0 14.5/85.5 38.7/61.3 16.8/83.2 36.5/63.5 5.3/94.7 75.7/24.3
2026 55.2/44.8 90.9/9.1 0.0/100.0 15.7/84.3 37.2/62.8 16.0/84.0 34.7/65.3 6.8/93.2 80.5/19.5
2031 54.2/45.8 90.1/9.9 0.0/100.0 15.8/84.2 36.7/63.3 16.7/83.3 33.4/66.6 7.0/93.0 81.1/18.9
2036 54.2/45.8 89.5/10.5 0.0/100.0 16.0/84.0 36.3/63.7 17.1/82.9 32.7/67.3 7.4/92.6 79.2/20.8
2041 54.1/45.9 88.8/11.2 0.0/100.0 16.1/83.9 35.9/64.1 17.3/82.7 32.1/67.9 7.6/92.4 76.1/23.9
104
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Census Queens Charlotte- Corn- Capital East Central West Southeast West
Year County Stratford town wall Region CA CA CA Queens Queens
2016 33,975 3,820 16,100 2,030 21,950 1,195 3,725 2,095 1,195 3,825
2021 40,050 4,565 18,918 2,353 25,836 1,429 4,402 2,474 1,395 4,456
2026 45,193 5,267 21,481 2,684 29,433 1,610 5,030 2,799 1,567 4,754
2031 50,189 6,767 23,304 2,968 33,039 1,765 5,567 3,122 1,724 4,990
2036 55,609 8,491 25,288 3,260 37,039 1,900 6,109 3,485 1,926 5,151
2041 61,178 10,537 27,160 3,520 41,217 2,054 6,586 3,862 2,186 5,273
2016 11.2% 47.4% 6.0% 64.6% 3.5% 11.0% 6.2% 3.5% 11.3%
2021 11.4% 47.2% 5.9% 64.5% 3.6% 11.0% 6.2% 3.5% 11.1%
2026 11.7% 47.5% 5.9% 65.1% 3.6% 11.1% 6.2% 3.5% 10.5%
2031 13.5% 46.4% 5.9% 65.8% 3.5% 11.1% 6.2% 3.4% 9.9%
2036 15.3% 45.5% 5.9% 66.6% 3.4% 11.0% 6.3% 3.5% 9.3%
2041 17.2% 44.4% 5.8% 67.4% 3.4% 10.8% 6.3% 3.6% 8.6%
105
6.4 SCENARIO 3
Scenario 3 is based on the 2016 to 2021 period during which Queens County and the Capital Region
have experienced unprecedented growth that has resulted in serious strains on the local housing supply.
The period has been characterized by pronounced in-migration of young adults who not only add to the
region’s population but also increase its potential for natural increase.
Age Profile
Applying the recent dramatic demographic trends (i.e., 2016-2021) in Queens County results in a more
than doubling of the Capital Region’s population. In addition, we expect the proportion of the population
between 15 and 44 years of age to rise significantly from 38.6% in 2021 to 56.3% in 2041 (Figure 6-12).
The dependency ratio will fall from the current level of 51.3 to just 35.1 suggesting a much stronger and
potentially more productive region. If growth continues at the level of the 2016 to 2021 period, it will
resolve the issues of population aging and decline that have long been the focus of demographic concern
in PEI. The past challenge will however be replaced by the difficult work of managing growth that has
gained the attention of Island residents and planners the past few years and may compound over the next
two decades.
In Scenario 3, Stratford will continue to attract the largest share of regional population growth but will be
less dominant than in the preceding two scenarios expanding its share from 12.1% to 16.7%. All three
Capital Region municipalities will add significantly to their populations. Charlottetown’s share of Queens’
population will increase moderately from 44.0% today to 44.9% by 2041, although Cornwall’s share will
decrease moderately from 6.6% to 5.9%. The Capital Region will strengthen its position in the county by
even more than in the preceding scenarios with its share of population growing to 67.5% (Figure 6-13).
Although the rural areas will see high levels of growth similar to the urban core, all will see their shares of
population diminished with the farthest outlying areas (Southeast Queens and West Queens)
experiencing the largest declines
Housing Needs
Given the underlying assumption of Scenario 3 that the historically high levels of in-migration to the region
from 2016 to 2021 will continue over the next 20 years, the shift from single-detached to apartment
housing experienced in the past five years will be sustained with falling representation of detached units
and increased proportion of apartments to 2031 but slight increases in the proportion of detached
dwellings in 2036 and 2041. Our estimates suggest that the proportion of detached homes will decline
from 49.2% in 2021 to 47.6% in 2031 as the share of low and high-rise apartments is expected to rise
from 32.5% to 33.5%. From 2031 to 2041, however, we anticipate the share of detached homes will
recover slightly to reach 48.7% in 2041, while the proportion in apartments will slip moderately to 31.9%
(Figure 6-14). In line with these shifts, we calculate the ratio between owned and rented units should
move steadily toward rental from 55.5/44.5 in 2021 to 53.3/46.7.
106

140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 7,696 7,322 7,762 8,138 9,399 9,384 10,751 13,147 16,225
15-24 6,474 6,543 7,274 7,068 8,152 11,564 13,749 15,196 16,541
25-34 5,741 5,451 5,980 6,758 7,795 14,214 19,907 25,829 31,692
35-44 6,454 6,117 6,507 6,547 7,560 8,851 11,613 16,997 23,989
45-54 6,579 6,726 7,471 7,270 8,390 7,999 9,082 10,560 13,568
55-64 4,253 5,563 6,852 7,233 8,344 7,235 7,298 7,970 9,046
65-74 3,028 3,464 4,164 5,587 6,447 7,081 7,362 7,268 7,361
75-84 2,278 2,367 2,553 2,865 3,303 4,733 5,820 6,317 6,500
85+ 944 1,097 1,263 1,316 1,516 1,587 1,953 2,621 3,180
TOTAL 43,448 44,651 49,825 52,784 60,906 72,647 87,535 105,905 128,101
% Change 2.8% 11.6% 5.9% 15.4% 19.3% 20.5% 21.0% 21.0%
0-14 17.7% 16.4% 15.6% 15.4% 15.4% 12.9% 12.3% 12.4% 12.7%
15-24 14.9% 14.7% 14.6% 13.4% 13.4% 15.9% 15.7% 14.3% 12.9%
25-34 13.2% 12.2% 12.0% 12.8% 12.8% 19.6% 22.7% 24.4% 24.7%
35-44 14.9% 13.7% 13.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.2% 13.3% 16.0% 18.7%
45-54 15.1% 15.1% 15.0% 13.8% 13.8% 11.0% 10.4% 10.0% 10.6%
55-64 9.8% 12.5% 13.8% 13.7% 13.7% 10.0% 8.3% 7.5% 7.1%
65-74 7.0% 7.8% 8.4% 10.6% 10.6% 9.7% 8.4% 6.9% 5.7%
75-84 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.0% 5.1%
85+ 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5%
107
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Community/Area 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Stratford 6,387 7,205 8,873 10,029 11,744 14,746 18,934 24,435 31,705
Charlottetown 32,594 32,674 35,625 37,237 42,793 50,560 60,160 71,744 85,127
Cornwall 4,466 4,772 5,327 5,518 6,369 7,341 8,441 9,725 11,269
Capital Region 43,448 44,651 49,825 52,784 60,906 72,647 87,535 105,905 128,101
% Change 2.8% 11.6% 5.9% 15.4% 19.3% 20.5% 21.0% 21.0%
East CA 2,780 2,882 3,079 3,234 3,695 4,166 4,737 5,447 6,286
Central CA 8,812 8,824 9,337 9,791 11,467 13,279 15,621 18,612 22,246
West CA 4,809 5,110 5,304 5,689 6,634 7,578 8,683 10,004 11,624
West Queens 9,204 9,157 9,495 9,727 10,653 11,332 12,147 13,077 14,154
Queens County 72,367 73,875 80,223 84,545 97,211 113,537 134,030 159,270 189,642
% Change 2.1% 8.6% 5.4% 15.0% 16.8% 18.0% 18.8% 19.1%
Stratford 8.8% 9.8% 11.1% 11.9% 12.1% 13.0% 14.1% 15.3% 16.7%
Charlottetown 45.0% 44.2% 44.4% 44.0% 44.0% 44.5% 44.9% 45.0% 44.9%
Cornwall 6.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9%
Capital Region 60.0% 60.4% 62.1% 62.4% 62.7% 64.0% 65.3% 66.5% 67.5%
East CA 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3%
Central CA 12.2% 11.9% 11.6% 11.6% 11.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7%
West CA 6.6% 6.9% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1%
West Queens 12.7% 12.4% 11.8% 11.5% 11.0% 10.0% 9.1% 8.2% 7.5%
108
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041


2016 21,950 11,055 55 2,015 840 555 6,930 35 480
2021 25,836 12,713 40 2,423 1,050 693 8,344 25 550
2026 30,850 14,790 52 2,976 1,300 858 10,203 27 644
2031 36,962 17,583 66 3,527 1,610 1,059 12,326 28 763
2036 44,933 21,474 81 4,426 2,000 1,294 14,704 27 927
2041 54,685 26,642 96 5,366 2,469 1,577 17,362 27 1,146
2016 50.4% 0.3% 9.2% 3.8% 2.5% 31.6% 0.2% 2.2%
2021 49.2% 0.2% 9.4% 4.1% 2.7% 32.3% 0.1% 2.1%
2026 47.9% 0.2% 9.6% 4.2% 2.8% 33.1% 0.1% 2.1%
2031 47.6% 0.2% 9.5% 4.4% 2.9% 33.3% 0.1% 2.1%
2036 47.8% 0.2% 9.8% 4.5% 2.9% 32.7% 0.1% 2.1%
2041 48.7% 0.2% 9.8% 4.5% 2.9% 31.7% 0.0% 2.1%
Ratio Owned/Rented
2016 54.6/45.4 91.9/8.1 0.0/100.0 13.5/86.5 36.1/63.9 16.1/83.9 31.8/68.2 4.8/95.2 57.1/42.9
2021 55.5/44.5 92.1/7.9 0.0/100.0 14.5/85.5 38.7/61.3 16.8/83.2 36.5/63.5 5.3/94.7 75.7/24.3
2026 55.9/44.1 91.1/8.9 0.0/100.0 16.1/83.9 37.8/62.2 16.5/83.5 35.3/64.7 7.0/93.0 80.6/19.4
2031 54.5/45.5 90.2/9.8 0.0/100.0 16.0/84.0 37.2/62.8 17.2/82.8 32.8/67.2 7.2/92.8 80.1/19.9
2036 53.8/46.2 89.3/10.7 0.0/100.0 15.9/84.1 36.1/63.9 17.2/82.8 30.8/69.2 7.4/92.6 77.3/22.7
2041 53.3/46.7 88.3/11.7 0.0/100.0 15.7/84.3 35.1/64.9 17.0/83.0 29.7/70.3 7.4/92.6 73.8/26.2
109
In line with our Scenario 3 population projection, our model predicts the share of dwelling units will again
increase the most in Stratford but less than in the preceding two scenarios with a rise from 11.4% to
15.5%. We expect Charlottetown to shift moderately, increasing its share from 47.2% to 47.8% by 2026
but falling back to 46.4% by 2041. We also expect Cornwall’s share to decline but moderately from 5.9%
to 5.7%. Overall, the proportion of dwellings in the Capital Region is again expected to grow with an
increase from 64.5% to 67.7% of all housing in Queens County by 2041. Remaining regional sub-areas
are expected to lose share, with the largest drop being in West Queens, which we calculate will lose more
than two full percentage points (Figure 6-15).
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Census Queens Charlotte- Corn- Capital East Central Southeast West

Year County Stratford town wall Region CA CA West CA Queens Queens
2016 33,975 3,820 16,100 2,030 21,950 1,195 3,725 2,095 1,195 3,825
2021 40,050 4,565 18,918 2,353 25,836 1,429 4,402 2,474 1,395 4,456
2026 47,210 5,506 22,545 2,798 30,850 1,686 5,233 2,910 1,623 4,909
2031 55,974 7,271 26,408 3,283 36,962 1,999 6,211 3,435 1,881 5,356
2036 67,026 9,599 31,414 3,921 44,933 2,376 7,526 4,128 2,193 5,870
2041 80,759 12,544 37,498 4,644 54,685 2,824 9,236 4,938 2,604 6,471
2016 11.2% 47.4% 6.0% 64.6% 3.5% 11.0% 6.2% 3.5% 11.3%
2021 11.4% 47.2% 5.9% 64.5% 3.6% 11.0% 6.2% 3.5% 11.1%
2026 11.7% 47.8% 5.9% 65.3% 3.6% 11.1% 6.2% 3.4% 10.4%
2031 13.0% 47.2% 5.9% 66.0% 3.6% 11.1% 6.1% 3.4% 9.6%
2036 14.3% 46.9% 5.8% 67.0% 3.5% 11.2% 6.2% 3.3% 8.8%
2041 15.5% 46.4% 5.7% 67.7% 3.5% 11.4% 6.1% 3.2% 8.0%
110
6.5 SCENARIO INSIGHTS

The three foregoing scenarios provide a variety of insights to the housing situation in Charlottetown. First,
the background trends underlying each scenario indicate that population growth and related increases in
housing demand have been gaining momentum for 15 years. Played ahead 20 years, continuation of
these trends suggests significant further increases in population and housing need. The most recent
period from 2016 to 2021 is unprecedented and, if continued, will roughly double housing requirements in
both Queens County and the Capital Region.
Scenario 3, which generates the highest rate of growth, suggests the Capital Region will require 28,849
additional dwelling units over the 20 years from 2021 to 2041 or 1,442 per year. Permit approvals by
Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford in the past two years have approached that level (1,005 units/per
year in 2019 and 2020, as shown on Figure 5-11, above) but will have to continue to grow substantially.
Sustaining production over the next two decades will require considerable expansion of housing
investment in PEI and complementary growth in the Island’s development industry.
The recent increase appears to be much less connected to the economy than features of the local real
estate market. As our analysis in Chapter 3.0 establishes, the economy of the Island is sound, but it is
not expanding at a rate commensurate with its population increase. Certainly, anecdotal evidence
suggests the rise of home-based work stimulated by the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn a significant
number of footloose workers to the region, but they have largely brought jobs with them rather than being
attracted by economic opportunities on the Island. The pull of the Island for these workers, as well as for
many international immigrants and retirees, is low-priced housing, notwithstanding that the influx it has
attracted has jeopardized affordability.
An interesting feature we have noted from our future estimates is the long-range expectation that the
share of housing in single-detached accommodation will be restored over time, despite model
adjustments assuming shifts to rented apartment units. The tendency appears to have parallels to the
Baby Boom of the mid-twentieth century inasmuch as the recent rise in migration to the region has been
abrupt and largely unexpected and has demanded a rapid response. The influx of in migrants,
predominantly in the 20 to 44 age cohorts, put immediate pressure on local housing and, particularly, on
apartment units like Baby Boom children placed pressure on housing and schools in the 1950s and
1960s. The response to accommodate an expanded group of apartment dwellers is increasing apartment
capacity; however, as with schools built for Baby Boomers, demand will dissipate if new residents are not
continuously added.
111
The current wave of immigrants, like others in the population can be expected to move out of apartments
into attached ground-level units and detached housing as they form families. According to widely cited
statistics, typical international immigrants buy a house within three years of their arrival in Canada and
account for one in five home purchases. 41 If current immigration levels are maintained, apartment units
now being added will continue to be occupied. If immigration falls back at all, vacancies may well
increase, although any increase from present levels will add to current pressures. The effect of recent
immigrants is also not restricted to their direct housing needs. As we have noted, they are predominantly
of family forming age and can be expected to make a significant contribution to the next generation of
Islanders. Their children will become apartment-dwellers as they reach young adulthood, and they
themselves may well return to apartments as they reach retirement. Like Baby Boomers they can be
expected to influence their environment throughout their lives as well as through the lives of their
offspring.
6.6 LAND SUPPLY

While the foregoing estimates give an idea of the need for housing, the ability to provide required units is
significantly influenced by municipal plans and regulations. Official plans set the objectives and policies
for land development and uses, and zoning bylaws define where development should be located by type.
Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford combined have 81,300,241.4 m2 (81,300.2 hectares) of land
zoned for development (i.e., land excluding roadways, utility corridors and other lands deemed unsuitable
for development, such as tidal areas) based on calculations by Stantec using the zoning maps of each
municipality in GIS, as summarized in Table 6-1 and Table 6-2 and illustrated in Figure 6-16.
To develop the numbers shown in the following tables, we calculated the land area each zone covers in
GIS, the number of units allowed on each property by right in each zone, and the number that can be
added on properties in the zone based on a property-by-property comparison of the “maximum as-of-
right” number of units to the number already present. In other words, for each property we determined the
number of units allowed by the applicable bylaw without council approval. We, therefore, ignored special
permit and conditional uses, and avenues to increase development potential such as rezonings or
development agreements.
41
According to related statistics, 75% of newcomers arrive with savings intended to help purchase a home, although 64% initially
rent. In addition, 82% of newcomers choose to remain in their first city of residence. Jordon Scrinko, “Canada Real Estate
Statistics [2020]," precondo, updated April 23, 2021, https://precondo.ca/canada-real-estate-statistics/. Other data indicate that
Asians, who are the predominant immigrant group attracted to Charlottetown, are particularly likely to pursue homeownership
and generally own homes at a rate comparable to the national average. Chinese immigrants place even more emphasis on
homeownership and approximately 85% own their own home. See: Statistics Canada, “Housing Experiences in Canada 2018,”
The Daily, Monday, November 22, 2021.
112
Table 6-1 Land Area by Zone with Estimated Potential Residential Units,
Charlottetown, 2021
Potential
Primary Dwelling % of Total Max. as of Additional Unserviced Unserviced % of
Zone Unit Type Area (m2) Area Right Units Units Area (m2) Total Area
A None 4,790,036.3 12.8% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
C1 None 33,697.3 0.1% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
C2 Low-rise apt 932,606.6 2.5% 1,044 809 0.0 0.0%
C3 Low-rise apt 619,694.0 1.7% 1,094 906 0.0 0.0%
CDA Mixed 2,987,726.3 8.0% 6,220 6,213 0.0 0.0%
DC Low-rise apt 38,188.7 0.1% 164 136 0.0 0.0%
DMS Low-rise apt 63,330.9 0.2% 349 273 0.0 0.0%
DMU Rowhouse 15,571.1 0.0% 22 16 0.0 0.0%
DMUN Rowhouse 190,160.5 0.5% 253 155 0.0 0.0%
DN Rowhouse 361,730.1 1.0% 313 126 0.0 0.0%
FDA Single 508,908.1 1.4% 14 12 0.0 0.0%
I None 3,009,957.0 8.1% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
M1 Other attached 920,806.0 2.5% 594 503 0.0 0.0%
M2 None 854,408.1 2.3% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
M3 None 648,737.4 1.7% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
MH Movable 172,171.2 0.5% 358 303 0.0 0.0%
MHR Movable 74,274.0 0.2% 159 134 0.0 0.0%
MUC Low-rise apt 736,626.8 2.0% 1,142 813 0.0 0.0%
MUR Rowhouse 400,362.0 1.1% 1,786 1,514 0.0 0.0%
MUVC Rowhouse 53,233.7 0.1% 18 15 0.0 0.0%
OS None 2,715,730.8 7.3% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
P None 38,704.0 0.1% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
PC None 73,531.5 0.2% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
PZ None 6,276.0 0.0% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
R1L Single 7,776,429.1 20.8% 10,628 5,341 0.0 0.0%
R1N Single 8,219.4 0.0% 17 10 0.0 0.0%
R1S Single 1,446,867.3 3.9% 1,613 697 0.0 0.0%
R2 Semi/Duplex 2,134,058.1 5.7% 4,725 2,386 0.0 0.0%
R2S Semi/Duplex 4,172,261.5 11.2% 10,095 8,007 0.0 0.0%
R3 Rowhouse 1,031,589.6 2.8% 5,196 2,212 0.0 0.0%
R3T Rowhouse 31,266.1 0.1% 147 120 0.0 0.0%
R4 Low-rise apt 38,502.0 0.1% 215 31 0.0 0.0%
WF None 138,603.5 0.4% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
WLC None 21,061.1 0.1% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
WLOS None 307,787.3 0.8% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
TOTALS 37,353,113.3 100.0% 46,166 30,733 0.0 0.0%
113
Table 6-2 Land Area by Zone with Estimated Potential Residential Units, Cornwall
and Stratford, 2021
Potential
Primary Dwelling % of Total Max. as of Additional Unserviced Unserviced % of
Zone Unit Type Area (m2) Area Right Units Units Area (m2) Total Area
Cornwall
A1 Single 10,681,370.2 44.6% 1,025 849 10,453,524.0 43.7%
C1 Other attached 936,687.4 3.9% 27 23 0.0 0.0%
CDA Low-rise apt 1,105,612.1 4.6% 1,378 1,375 1,105,612.1 4.6%
M2 None 779,443.1 3.3% 0 0 547,385.1 2.3%
O1 None 287,645.6 1.2% 0 0 78,188.2 0.3%
PSI None 669,085.7 2.8% 0 0 123,679.8 0.5%
PURD Mixed 2,535,833.9 10.6% 11,147 10,760 1,135,461.1 4.7%
R1 Single 2,710,869.6 11.3% 2,668 1,711 0.0 0.0%
R2 Semi/Duplex 2,197,044.7 9.2% 5,229 3,894 286,296.6 1.2%
R3 Rowhouse 100,867.1 0.4% 0 107 0.0 0.0%
R4 Low-rise Apt 169,392.6 0.7% 575 292 0.0 0.0%
RM1 Movable 114,428.2 0.5% 222 189 0.0 0.0%
RR Single 1,657,706.8 6.9% 291 238 1,657,706.8 6.9%
TOTALS 23,945,987.0 100.0% 22,562 19,437 15,387,853.8 64.3%
Stratford
A1 Single 5,273,268.6 26.4% 172 138 5,265,408.5 26.3%
C1 None 36,967.0 0.2% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
C2 None 14,366.8 0.1% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
C3 None 7,377.7 0.0% 0 0 1,238.3 0.0%
M1 None 297,789.3 1.5% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
M2 None 262,517.7 1.3% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
MRC None 34,116.5 0.2% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
MRMU Low-rise Apt 11,006.0 0.1% 9 8 0.0 0.0%
MRR Rowhouse 9,560.1 0.0% 19 16 0.0 0.0%
O1 None 1,159,881.6 5.8% 0 0 1,083,515.5 5.4%
PSI None 352,102.5 1.8% 0 0 266,976.5 1.3%
PURD Mixed 202,180.8 1.0% 845 648 0.0 0.0%
R1 Single 4,252,526.9 21.3% 3,983 2,121 82,672.5 0.4%
R1L Single 5,662,379.2 28.3% 2,369 1,567 1,171,641.4 5.9%
R2 Semi/Duplex 1,732,045.5 8.7% 930 434 21,869.4 0.1%
R3 Rowhouse 86,745.9 0.4% 456 196 0.0 0.0%
TCC None 87,587.2 0.4% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
TCI None 76,372.0 0.4% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
TCMU Low-rise apt 165,076.3 0.8% 303 303 0.0 0.0%
TCR Low-rise apt 124,049.5 0.6% 603 345 0.0 0.0%
WMU None 66,805.9 0.3% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
WPS None 72,016.6 0.4% 0 0 0.0 0.0%
WR Low-rise apt 14,401.6 0.1% 179 179 0.0 0.0%
TOTALS 20,001,141.1 100.0% 9,868 5,955 7,893,322.2 39.5%
114
Figure 6-16 Locations of Potential Additional Residential Dwellings Units, Capital Region, 2021
Source Stantec Consulting

For most zones, we divided the area of each property by the zone’s lot area requirement to determine the
number of units that could fit. We then deemed the lot ready for development if its frontage was sufficient
to meet the bylaw requirement. If not, the property was deemed not to be ready for development and
excluded from our compilation.
For zones such as PURD (Planned Unit Residential Development) and CDA (Comprehensive
Development Area), and some of the zones adopted for the core of Stratford that presume the
development of a master planned area, we adopted a standard density for the predominant building type,
to take into account requirements for roads and park spaces within the development. 42 For other
developments, we assumed road development was not in question as satisfaction of frontage
requirements was a condition of development in our assumptions; however, we discounted the number of
units by 15% to recognize parkland dedication and losses due to awkward lotting and other issues that
often compromise lot yield. Once we determined potential as-of-right development by these means, we
subtracted the number of units existing on each property to determine the net potential gain through
either development or redevelopment.
Our purpose in calculating potential net additional dwelling units was to determine the ability of the three
municipalities to accommodate growth under the three scenarios we developed. We recognize, however,
the question is not simply whether the total number of required dwelling units can be provided but
whether the type of units required can be supplied. If, for example, 30,000 single-detached homes can be
built, it will not address the needs of the many households that cannot afford to buy or maintain a single-
detached home, or who may simply not want or be suited to that type of accommodation.
As can be seen from the preceding tables, current zoning permits substantial development in all three
communities. Close to three-quarters (73.9%) of all land in the three municipalities is zoned to allow some
level of residential development, ranging from accessory apartments in commercial buildings to multi-unit
apartment structures. Remaining lands are zoned exclusively for commercial, institutional, or industrial
uses, or are reserved for parks and open space. Based on our calculations, Charlottetown can accept
30,733 dwelling units of all types; Cornwall, which has substantial vacant areas, can absorb 19,437; and
Stratford can accommodate 5,955. Together, the three municipalities comprising the urban core of the
region are currently zoned to allow the development of 56,125 additional dwelling units.
These numbers, based on our assumptions concerning the number of dwelling units permitted in each
zone, are additions to units already built within each community. They should nevertheless be qualified. A
substantial portion of potential new units in Cornwall and Stratford are on unserviced lands where low
density is prescribed in consideration of the limitations of on-site septic systems and wells (see serviced
Area boundaries for Cornwall and Stratford on Figure 6-16, above). In Cornwall, 8,837 or 45.5% of
potential dwelling units do not currently have access to municipal water and sewer services and, in
Stratford, 1,349 or 22.7% of potential dwelling units are unserviced as shown in Table 6-3. Much of this
land, furthermore, is covered by Agriculture (A) zoning where policy generally discourages development
42
Our primary source was the City of Edmonton handout “Housing Types and Definitions,” April 2013,
https://www.edmonton.ca/public-files/assets/document?path=PDF/Housing_Types_and_Definitions_Chart.pdf, which defines
the typical number of dwelling units per hectare for rowhouse and apartment types.
117
and in which subdivision into the maximum number of lots is unlikely given that developers will generally
want to access services to maximize development potential. In Stratford, these lands are on the perimeter
of the town and allow relatively moderate additional development (areas capable of accommodating up to
5 units per acre visible outside the Town’s Servicing Boundary as shown on Figure 6-16, above).
Cornwall, on the other hand, has extensive unserviced lands adjacent to its developed core in which
substantial additional units (up to 30 per acre) are possible as Figure 6-16 shows.
Table 6-3 Permitted Dwelling Units by Broad Structural Type, Charlottetown,

Cornwall and Stratford, 2021
////
Semi/ Low-rise Other

Single Duplex Rowhouse apt attached Movable Mixed TOTAL
All Potential
Capital Region 12,685 14,720 4,477 5,469 526 626 17,621 56,125
% of Units 22.6% 26.2% 8.0% 9.7% 0.9% 1.1% 31.4% 100.0%
Charlottetown 6,061 10,393 4,157 2,968 503 438 6,213 30,733
% of Units 19.7% 33.8% 13.5% 9.7% 1.6% 1.4% 20.2% 100.0%
Cornwall 2,798 3,894 107 1,667 23 189 10,760 19,437
% of Units 14.4% 20.0% 0.6% 8.6% 0.1% 1.0% 55.4% 100.0%
Stratford 3,826 434 213 835 0 0 648 5,955
% of Units 64.3% 7.3% 3.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 100.0%
Serviced Land
Capital Region 11,082 14,061 4,477 3,267 526 626 12,583 46,623
% of Units 19.7% 25.1% 8.0% 5.8% 0.9% 1.1% 22.4% 83.1%
Charlottetown 6,061 10,393 4,157 2,968 503 438 6,213 30,733
% of Units 19.7% 33.8% 13.5% 9.7% 1.6% 1.4% 20.2% 100.0%
Cornwall 1,711 3,241 107 292 23 189 5,722 11,284
% of Units 8.8% 16.7% 0.6% 1.5% 0.1% 1.0% 29.4% 58.1%
Stratford 3,311 427 213 8 0 0 648 4,606
% of Units 55.6% 7.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 77.3%
Undeveloped Serviced Land
Capital Region 4,989 7,504 2,593 3,519 526 413 9,134 28,678
% of Units 17.4% 26.2% 9.0% 12.3% 1.8% 1.4% 31.9% 100.0%
Charlottetown 2,359 6,641 2,439 2,786 503 224 4,468 19,421
% of Units 12.1% 34.2% 12.6% 14.3% 2.6% 1.2% 23.0% 100.0%
Cornwall 866 563 90 6 23 189 4,387 6,124
% of Units 14.1% 9.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.4% 3.1% 71.6% 100.0%
Stratford 1,764 300 65 727 0 0 279 3,134
% of Units 56.3% 9.6% 2.1% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 100.0%
118
Within the serviced areas and in the core of each of the three communities, while zoning allows more
units through infill and additions to existing structures on many properties, construction will be more
complicated on lands that are already developed. We have discounted potential additional units by an
appropriate percentage in zones that allow non-residential uses such as agriculture and commercial
zones. 43 Undoubtedly, as well, some permitted units will be difficult to incorporate in specific situations
where buildings would not be easy to adapt or where their value for non-residential purposes would
exceed potential returns from residential redevelopment (e.g., many commercial buildings that are
permitted to incorporate residential units). We estimate lands that are serviced and not currently
developed with dwelling units can accommodate 28,678 additional units across the three municipalities or
51.1% of all dwelling units we estimate current zoning will permit.
Comparison of our Scenario 3 estimates of housing needs by structural type with potential additional
dwelling units indicate future strains on supply. Housing needs are measured by subtracting our
estimates of dwelling numbers in 2021 from projected 2041 dwelling unit needs. Under Scenario 3, for
example, the Capital Region will require 28,849 additional dwelling units to be built between 2021, for
which we have estimated the region has 25,836, and 2041, when Scenario 3 suggests 54,685 will be
required (Table 6-4). For Scenarios 1 and 2 our calculations of total dwelling unit needs are 6,625 and
15,381, respectively.
When all available opportunities in the three municipalities are considered, the current capacity of the
Capital Region municipalities almost exactly matches the need expected to develop by 2041 in Scenario
3 with a shortfall of just 170 units, when need is compared to the presumed capacity of current serviced
and undeveloped land. For comparison Scenario 1 will have a comfortable surplus of 22,054 units and
adequate opportunities to accommodate all residential types, and Scenario 2 will result in a more
moderate surplus of 13,298 with greater requirements for single-detached and apartment units than
current zoning for those uses can accommodate but more than sufficient additional land in mixed-use
zones to cover the need.
Circumstances in both Scenarios 2 and 3 are concerning. Well before the region reaches its current
capacity, the market can be expected to tighten considerably. Furthermore, not all lands are likely to be
developed to their maximum potential. While we would expect market pressures to result in rezoning of
land to address the need, we would also expect population to spread into outlying areas of Queens
County and beyond, which will already be under substantial growth pressure.
By municipality within the Capital Region, Cornwall is the most able to accommodate single and attached
housing types over the next 20 years if the level of growth expected in Scenario 3 occurs. While the town
will have minor shortfalls in land zoned for as-of-right development in most residential categories, the
small deficiencies should be amply covered by substantial potential in mixed-use zones (numbers in red
highlight locations and housing categories where projected 2041 demand will exceed the estimated
availability of appropriately zoned vacant, serviced land). Charlottetown, on the other hand, shows
substantial shortages for both detached housing and apartments, but a large surplus of land zoned for
43
The percentage discounted was varied based on the variety of possible alternative uses. We assumed for commercial zones,
for example, that 25% of potential units would be built. For agriculture zones in Cornwall and Stratford, we assumed 50%.
119
attached housing (5,932 units) as well as considerable mixed-use capacity. Stratford, however, is under
supplied in all categories and an overall shortfall that the Town’s limited supply of mixed-use land will not
cover (Table 6-4).
The distribution of land is general favourable. The bulk (67.7%) of serviced, greenfield units are permitted
in Charlottetown, where it is not necessary to cross either the North River or the Hillsborough River,
typical commutes are shorter, and transit is more available. Cornwall’s serviced land is concentrated
around its Main Street corridor, which is served by transit and proposed under the Town’s draft Official
Plan to incorporate more intense mixed-use development with new active transportation facilities (i.e.,
sidewalks and cycling lanes). A great deal of Cornwall’s development potential is in mixed-use PURD or
CDA Zones designed to facilitate master planned communities with a range of housing types. The Town’s
draft Official Plan, which Stantec prepared, proposes rezoning of substantial areas around the new TCH
interchange and along Cornwall Road to Main Street within the town to PURD and CDA from Agriculture.
The recommendations have, however, met strong community resistance. In Stratford, however, the
town’s development potential, while limited, is distributed widely inside and outside its serviced area.
Table 6-4 Estimated Potential Residential Units, Capital Region, 2021

TOTAL Single Attached Apartment Movable Mixed
Capital Region
All 56,125 12,685 19,724 5,470 627 17,621
Serviced 47,450 11,083 19,064 4,095 627 12,583
Serviced/Undeveloped 28,679 4,989 10,624 3,519 413 9,134
2041 Need* 28,849 13,929 5,249 9,075 596
Surplus/Deficit** -170 -8,940 5,375 -5,556 -183 9,134
Charlottetown
All 30,733 6,061 15,054 2,968 438 6,213
Serviced 30,733 6,061 15,054 2,968 438 6,213
Serviced/Undeveloped 19,421 2,359 9,583 2,786 224 4,468
2041 Need* 18,579 7,531 3,651 7,097 301
Surplus/Deficit** 842 -5,172 5,932 -4,311 -77 4,468
Cornwall
All 19,437 2,798 4,024 1,667 189 10,760
Serviced 11,284 1,711 3,371 292 189 5,722
Serviced/Undeveloped 6,124 866 676 6 189 4,387
2041 Need* 2,291 1,331 499 170 291
Surplus/Deficit** 3,833 -465 177 -164 -102 4,387
Stratford
All 5,955 3,826 646 835 0 648
Serviced 5,433 3,311 639 835 0 648
Serviced/Undeveloped 3,134 1,764 365 727 0 279
2041 Need* 7,979 5,067 1,100 1,808 4
Surplus/Deficit** -4,845 -3,303 -735 -1,081 -4 279
* Based on Scenario `3 ** Serviced/Undeveloped land – 2041 Need
120
The distribution of dwelling unit types permitted by current zoning is nevertheless encouraging. Only
17.4% of permitted units on serviced, vacant land are designated as single-detached, which is just 60.0%
of the total projected demand for single-detached units, recognizing that there are many additional
opportunities to add detached units through infill and they are the predominant use permitted on
unserviced land. The largest share of units is in zones permitting forms of attached housing (i.e., semis,
duplexes, and other attached units), which account for 37.0% of potential additional units, suggesting that
the missing middle has not been ignored by the Capital Region municipalities. On the other hand, only
12.3% of potential units are in apartment structures, which are all low-rise, given that the maximum height
permitted for residential development in any of the three municipalities is 48 feet. Apartments are,
however, generally permitted as a component of areas designated for mixed development, which are an
important feature of zoning in all three municipalities but are particularly noteworthy in Cornwall where
71.6% of potential serviced greenfield development is in aforementioned mixed-use PURD and CDA
zones.
Many mechanisms are available to change zoning to allow more or less development, encourage it in
favourable directions, or shift its emphasis to different unit types. As we have noted, Stantec has
prepared a revised Official Plan and Bylaw for the Town of Cornwall that will encourage mixed-use
development in the Town’s Main Street corridor based on study work previously completed by Fathom
Studio under the company’s former name Ekistics. 44 Work by Ekistics for the Town of Stratford as well as
recent work by Upland has provided the foundation for the town centre and waterfront zones now
incorporated in the Stratford Development Bylaw that have added significantly to the town’s development
capacity. 45 Charlottetown, for its part, has explored avenues to increase density that are notably reflected
in recent Bylaw amendments to facilitate comprehensive development in the East Royalty area as well as
a range of initiatives stimulated by the City’s Affordable Housing Incentive Program.
If, however, growth in the Capital Region continues at the pace established in the past five years as
reflected in Scenario 3 estimates, additional effort to facilitate intensification will be required. As we have
noted, housing demand appears to be shifting to apartment units and there is considerable room for the
trend before the Capital Region reaches the national norm. While explicit provisions for apartments are
arguably inadequate (12.3% of potential units on vacant, serviced land are in zones specifically created
for apartments), mixed-use zones (e.g., PURD and CDA zones) can accommodate significantly more.
Where property is appropriate and building capacity is available, developers can and frequently do initiate
processes to change planning and zoning requirements with the usual objective being to increase the
density to be permitted.
44
Ekistics Planning and Design, Town of Cornwall Main Street Spatial Plan, November 2018.
45
Ekistics Planning and Design, Stratford Core Area Vision, Final Report, March 2008, and Upland Planning and Design,
Stratford Waterfront Core Area Plan, September 2021.
121
While developers and other stakeholders consulted have emphasized the challenges of these processes,
applications will undoubtedly be received and approved over the next 20 years to rezone properties,
change zoning provisions, and make other changes to expand residential development potential,
particularly if the housing market remains strong. Acceptance of these efforts will depend on municipal
planning policies and public comfort with growth and change. The three municipalities will face a critical
challenge to interpret public desires and develop effective policy and regulatory frameworks to provide for
needed residential development.
6.7 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS

A final very important but difficult issue is affordability. As discussed in Section 2.1 above, the basic
measure of affordability is core housing need defined as households that must spend more than 30% of
their before tax income on housing. Unfortunately, as discussed, current data on core housing need for
PEI is questionable. CMHC’s survey-based annual estimates are considered unreliable by the
Corporation and differ considerably from Census of Canada numbers. Census numbers, although based
on a much larger, more reliable sample, are now six years old and do not reflect the substantial upturn in
housing prices that has taken place since the data was collected.
Census numbers are, however, more fine-grained as they are available for the census subdivisions that
comprise the Capital Region as well as for both owner and renter households. CMHC numbers, although
available to 2019, are only available for the Charlottetown and Summerside CAs together, and do not
distinguish owners and renters. The best we feel we can therefore do to estimate the future number of
households required to spend 30% or more of their income on housing is to apply 2016 proportions of
households in core housing need to our Scenario 3 estimates of owner and renter households in each
Capital Region municipality to our predicted numbers of total owned and rented units in the three
municipalities to generate the results shown in Table 6-5.
We offer the estimates cautiously, recognizing that housing prices have risen significantly relative to
household incomes since 2016, and prices for many goods and services as well as interest rates have
recently also increased. Our estimates demonstrate, at the minimum, the scale of the ongoing need for
affordable units if incomes can keep pace with housing costs. Given the expectation of many that housing
costs will run ahead of incomes in the near future, at least, it is reasonable to expect that the need for
additional affordable units will be greater than we have estimated using the best available data.
122
Table 6-5 Estimated Additional Affordable Units Required, Capital Region, Scenario
3, 2016-2041
Census Additional % Addition
Year Charlottetown Cornwall Stratford Capital Region Units Needed Needed
Owners
2016 7,760/1,009 1,500/162 2,730/336 11,990/1,507
2021 8,940/1,162 1,717/185 3,144/387 13,802/1,734 228 15.1%
2026 10,057/1,307 1,918/207 3,543/436 15,518/1,950 216 12.4%
2031 10,953/1,424 2,118/229 4,353/535 17,424/2,188 238 12.2%
2036 12,318/1,601 2,373/256 5,528/680 20,219/2,538 349 16.0%
2041 14,060/1,828 2,659/287 6,978/858 23,697/2,973 436 17.2%
Renters
2016 8,340/3,394 530/163 1,090/403 9,960/3,961
2021 9,313/3,790 598/184 1,178/436 11,089/4,411 450 11.4%
2026 10,240/4,168 683/210 1,339/495 12,262/4,874 463 10.5%
2031 11,994/4,882 811/250 1,759/651 14,564/5,782 909 18.6%
2036 14,142/5,756 964/297 2,323/860 17,429/6,912 1,130 19.5%
2041 16,697/6,796 1,131/348 3,006/1,112 20,834/8,256 1,344 19.4%
All Households
2016 16,100/4,403 2,030/325 3,820/739 21,950/5,468
2021 18,254/4,953 2,315/370 4,322/823 24,891/6,145 678 12.4%
2026 20,297/5,475 2,601/417 4,882/931 27,780/6,824 679 11.0%
2031 22,946/6,305 2,929/478 6,112/1,186 31,988/7,970 1,146 16.8%
2036 26,460/7,357 3,337/553 7,851/1,540 37,648/9,450 1,480 18.6%
2041 30,757/8,623 3,789/635 9,985/1,971 44,531/11,229 1,780 18.8%
123
7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Responses to housing issues in Canada require action from all levels of government. Under the
Constitution, housing is the responsibility of the provinces given the assignment of “property and civil
rights” to their jurisdiction. The Federal Government has, however, long established a role in the financing
and funding of housing beginning with the Dominion Housing Act of 1935, followed by the formation of
CMHC in 1945, and reflected in the current National Housing Strategy.
This Housing Needs Assessment has been prepared for municipal clients: the City of Charlottetown, and
the Towns of Cornwall and Stratford. The responsibilities of municipalities are allocated by the provinces
in which they are located. Provinces can assign any function within their sphere of responsibility to a
municipal government through appropriate legislation. Most provinces assign local planning and
development regulation to municipalities and some assign responsibility for social housing. Under PEI’s
recently adopted Municipal Government Act (MGA), the Province has reinforced the responsibility of
municipalities for planning and development regulation, requiring all municipalities to adopt official plans
and review them on a regular cycle. While the Act does not require municipalities to involve themselves in
the provision of social housing, they do arguably have the authority to take on the responsibility under the
broad powers in Section 180 of the MGA. 46
The housing situation in Canada, furthermore, is dynamic. As we have completed this report in May 2022,
we have observed and read varied news items and opinion pieces dealing with housing in North America.
Most have declared that the trends of the past two to three years are likely to continue. 47 As 2021 drew to
a close, the new COVID variant, Omicron, emerged, leading to a renewed cycle of restrictions on
assembly and movement that are now coming to an end but could be renewed if the virus reasserts itself.
At the close of 2021, the Bank of Canada was committed to maintaining low interest rates. 48 In the first
quarter of this year, however, rates began to climb from historically low levels and real estate
46
Section 180, which lists the areas for which municipalities may act, does not specifically mention housing but does state that “A
council may pass bylaws and provide services for municipal purposes respecting … (a) the safety, health and welfare of people
and the protection of persons and property.” There is a clear relationship between housing provision and the health and welfare
of municipal residents.
47
Murtaza Haider and Stephen Moranis, "Housing markets in Canada continue to defy gravity and the pandemic," Financial Post,
December 16, 2021.
48
At year end in 2021 the Bank of Canada overnight rate was the effective minimum of 0.25%. The Bank’s final announcement of
2021 on December 8, stated:
The Governing Council judges that in view of ongoing excess capacity, the economy continues to require considerable
monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until
economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s October
projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. We will provide the appropriate degree of monetary
policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target. (Bank of Canada, “Bank of Canada maintains
policy rate and forward guidance,” December 8, 2021, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/12/fad-press-release-2021-
12-08/).
124
Conclusions and Recommendations
professionals have suggested interest in housing has begun to subside as a result. 49 Increases in general
price inflation over the same period have now created pressures for additional interest rate hikes that may
further rein in the housing market as they satisfy the broader goal of subduing consumer demand.
On the other hand, earlier in 2021, Scotiabank Economics pointed out Canada’s shortage of housing is
among the worst in the world. According to the bank’s Chief Economist:
Canada has the lowest number of housing units per 1,000 residents of any G7 country.
The number of housing units per 1,000 Canadians has been falling since 2016 owing to
the sharp rise in population growth. An extra 100 thousand dwellings would have been
required to keep the ratio of housing units to population stable since 2016—leaving us
still well below the G7 average. 50
The referenced note called for intergovernmental action involving federal, provincial, and municipal
governments, private developers, investors, and “civil society organizations” to address the “politically
challenging” measures needed to address the housing gap. 51
Year-end news items summarizing 2021 real estate markets and offering predictions for 2022 confirm the
continued housing market imbalance. Royal LePage’s annual House Price Survey reported home prices
in Canada increased by 21.4% between the third quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2021. Prices in
Charlottetown rose by a comparable 21.1%, despite a decrease of 1.8% between the second and third
quarters. The year-to-year increase, in any case, ranked the Charlottetown market 20th of 62 regional
markets measured in the survey. 52
While Royal LePage anticipated sales in the fourth quarter would moderate as COVID restrictions eased
late in the year, among other factors, the company forecasted a national year-over-year aggregate house
price increase of 16.0%. 53 In addition to the reinstatement of COVID rules in response to Omicron to start
2022, the persistence of supply shortages in face of additional immigration is expected to support price
increases in the 10% to 11% range. Many analysts expected mortgage rates to increase as has since
happened. The short-term effect on housing demand has however been ambiguous. While housing price
increases have begun to slow, buyers have seen little benefit in affordability as mortgage costs tend to
cancel out the benefits of lower prices. 54 For existing homeowners who must renew mortgages negotiated
at previous, lower rates, the consequence is increased costs. Fortunately, most current mortgage holders
49
Nichola Saminather and Julie Gordon, "Canada's red-hot housing markets hint at cooldown as higher rates, inflation bite,"
Reuters, March 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-red-hot-housing-markets-hint-cooldown-higher-
rates-inflation-bite-2022-03-25.
50
Jean-Francois Perrault, “Estimating the Structural Housing Shortage in Canada: Are We 100 Thousand or Nearly 2 Million
Units Short?,” Scotiabank Global Economics Housing Note, May 12, 2021, p. 1.
51
Loc cit.
52
Royal LePage, “National House Price Composite in the Third Quarter 2021,”
https://marketing.rlpnetwork.com/Communications/Royal_LePage_2021_Market_Survey_Forecast_Q3.pdf.
53
“Royal LePage 2021 Market Survey Forecast,”
https://marketing.rlpnetwork.com/Communications/Royal_LePage_2021_Market_Survey_Forecast_Q3.pdf.
54
Nichola Saminather and Julie Gordon, op cit.
125
have passed federally mandated stress tests that established their ability to manage higher mortgages
costs, with buyers in 2021 being required to show they could handle rates up to 5.25%. 55
Changes to the housing cost profile also have no benefit for renters. Rents have continued to rise across
Canada. According to the March 2022 rental report from Rentals.ca, the average Canadian asking rent in
“February 2022 was $1,820 per month, an increase of 6.2% annually from $1,714 in February [2021].”
The report, which is based on a broader sampling of rental unit types than CMHC’s more controlled
surveys, notes that rents are “recovering” from decreases during pandemic lockdowns. From December
2019 to August 2021, Rentals.ca recorded year-over-year decreases in rents. The trend reversed to year-
over-year increases as pandemic restrictions began to ease. 56 Like many other sources, Rentals.ca
statistics, unfortunately, do not isolate the relatively small PEI or Capital Region markets.
Figure 7-1 Annual Change in Average Asking Rents for All Property Types by Month
on Rentals.ca, Canada, October 2019-February 2022
15.0%
9.4%
5.9%
10.0%
5.2%
4.4%
3.8%
3.6%
1.5%
1.3%
5.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-2.8%
-5.0%
-3.4%
-5.3%
-5.8%
-6.0%
-7.1%
-7.6%
-10.0%
-8.0%
Oct-20 -8.5%
Feb-21 -8.5%
Sep-20 -8.6%
Dec-20 -8.8%
Mar-21 -9.3%
May-20 -9.4%
Aug-20 -9.4%
-15.0%
May-21
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Oct-19
Jul-20
Sep-21
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Source Rentals.ca
Anecdotal evidence suggests bidding wars are still a feature in the local real estate market and the
housing situation will continue to be volatile. The short-term future appears likely to see continued price
increases, although rising interest rates may damp the rate of increase. Substantially higher interest
rates, if they occur, may well bring price increases under control; however, they raise the spectre of a
housing price collapse. At least one commentator has expressed concern that if targeted immigration
levels are not achieved, new housing units produced in response to recent soaring prices may not be
absorbed, reversing the problem that has dominated housing discussions over the past five years. 57
55
Jason Markusoff, "Five charts that will define Canadian real estate and housing in 2022," MacLean's, December 23, 2021,
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/canadian-real-estate-housing-2022/.
56
Rentals.ca, “Rentals.ca March 2022 Rent Report,” https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report.
57
Ed Devlin, Thomas Rowlands, and Parisa Mahboubi, "Immigration Remains the Key to Housing Prices," C.D. Howe Institute,
August 16, 2021, https://www.cdhowe.org/intelligence-memos/devlin-rowlands-mahboubi-%E2%80%93-immigration-remains-
key-housing-prices.
126
7.1 CONCLUSIONS
Our consultations generated the following themes that have guided our development of
recommendations:
• Inter-governmental Collaboration is Needed – As stated at the outset of this chapter, all three
levels of government can influence the supply of housing. Current housing challenges,
furthermore, are widespread, affecting most urban centres and many rural communities to varying
degrees. The Federal, Provincial, and municipal governments need to develop a coordinated
response to encourage the provision of more housing units and assist those in need.
• Continued Growth is Desired – While the surge in population growth in PEI is unprecedented and
has introduced serious challenges, it has countered previous concerns with population stagnation
and aging. Stakeholders are committed to accommodating new population and encouraging
further growth, although our future estimates suggest that continued growth at the current pace
will be challenging to accommodate.
• Housing Supply must be Increased –Housing is needed to accommodate additional population.

Most contacts recognize that, in addition to providing needed shelter, increasing supply will
reduce both prices and rents. As noted above, Scotiabank regards housing supply as a national
level issue. It is well-recognized by all stakeholders consulted, who like Scotiabank support
initiatives that will add to the number of available dwelling units either through new construction or
conversion.
• Residential Density should be Encouraged – Multiple-unit buildings, especially medium to high-

rise apartment structures, can provide more affordable dwelling units. To begin with, multiple-unit
buildings generally provide rental units and rental units are typically more affordable and better
suited to households in need (e.g., single persons, single income households, immigrants, and
seniors). Larger residential structures, particularly buildings more than four storeys high, would
allow the concentration of more dwelling units in the core of the region where transit service can
be more easily provided, and more amenities are accessible for residents reliant on walking as an
important mode of travel.
• Local Housing Data should be Improved – Statistics Canada and CMHC are rich sources of data
on population and housing for Canada, most of the provinces, and major urban centres. Data,
however, is frequently not available for areas with smaller populations, including the Province of
PEI, and the Charlottetown area and its component municipalities and unorganized areas. The
Provincial and municipal governments need to work with Federal agencies that track housing to
change sampling approaches to create data suitable for analysis of housing on the Island. The
Province and its municipalities should also explore the potential to coordinate the recording of
administrative data (e.g., building permits and assessment files) to provide more fine-grained and
timely community-level data.
127
• Public Education is Needed – Stakeholders consulted generally recognize the importance of

intensification to creating affordable dwelling units in affordable locations; however, most contacts
acknowledged strong opposition from many residents. The public must be won over to a Smart
Growth approach to development that must be reinforced by examples of good development. The
keys are to increase awareness of the need and the benefits in efficiency through intensification
while demonstrating that properly designed attached units and apartment structures can enhance
neighbourhoods.
• Smaller Residential Units are Needed – For many in the market, dwelling units with less floor
area would be sufficient and more affordable. With increasing proportions of one and two-person
households, bachelor and one-bedroom apartment units, as well as smaller units designed for
ownership. Tiny homes are an extreme example that is often referenced, but so are rowhouse
and semi-detached housing units, garden homes placed in yard spaces of existing residential
properties, and manufactured and movable dwellings. In all cases, decreased floor area reduces
the cost of production, operation, and maintenance, with notable benefits to young entrants to the
housing market in need of affordable accommodation and the increasing numbers of older people
seeking to downsize to reduce costs and maintenance responsibilities.
• Family-Friendly Rental Units are Needed – Notwithstanding the preceding point, there is also a
need for larger rental units. With the acquisition of a home becoming more difficult, some
households can be expected to stay in rental accommodation longer; however, suitable rental
units with three or more bedrooms are difficult to find. New immigrants arriving in PEI with
families often need larger rental accommodations until they can buy a home, and many have
shown a greater willingness than traditional Islanders to raise families in apartment units.
• Conversion of Rental Units should be Discouraged – Rental units have been lost in most markets
with the introduction of Airbnb, VRBO, and similar platforms that support short-term rental. The
trend is pronounced in PEI, which is a popular tourist destination offering good opportunities for
short-term rental operations.
• Transportation Options should be Expanded – The affordability of many housing options is

strongly influenced by the cost of transportation. Transit services and active transportation
facilities complement higher density residential development and generally reduce costs of living
in the urban core. Efforts that are well underway in the region to improve trails, cycling lanes, and
transit connections need to be reinforced and expanded to complement growth management
initiatives. Growth management should encourage both the expansion of services and
infrastructure and encourage development in locations where those improvements are available.
• Rent Control has Ambiguous Effects – Limits on annual rent increases have been in place in PEI
since 1988. They are the subject of intense debate in the province and elsewhere in North
America as real estate prices have risen and, with shortages in rental units, pushed rents up.
Many contacts feel controls need to be more strongly enforced through better monitoring of rent
increases and prevention of practices such as conversion to short-term rental and renoviction.
128
Opponents of controls counter that good returns from rental property stimulate investment in
additional rental units and discourage conversion to short-term rental, which is less stable and
requires more management than long-term rental. They contend that if controls are removed, the
market will respond more quickly to demand, and increased supply will restore market balance,
ultimately leading to more rental units available at lower rents.
• Housing Supports are Needed – The current market provides few options for the poor, the
mentally and physically challenged, students, seniors, and others. Developers as well as housing
advocates agree that public sector support is needed to provide affordable units as most
acknowledge the private sector cannot provide affordable and specialized housing units without
government assistance given high costs of materials and labour. Assistance may include
incentives for developers to build or supplements to homebuyers and residents to help them
afford accommodation.
• Public Housing is Needed – Affordable housing advocates have pushed for public housing. As
shown in Table 2-6, above, the number of public housing units in PEI is slightly above the
Canadian average, although Island municipalities have had little involvement in social housing
provision. Given that developers and builders generally agree that subsidy is needed to provide
affordable housing units, the critical issue for development of public housing will likely be
overcoming neighbourhood resistance and ensuring that public housing construction quality and
maintenance does not lead to it being stigmatized.
• Specialized Housing needs to be Encouraged – As with public housing, the availability of

specialized housing types like group homes and shelters in PEI is close to the Canadian average
(Table 2-7, above), although the proportion of the population housed in shelters is notably low.
These shelter types are nevertheless vital to the most vulnerable groups in the population. They
may, however, face neighbourhood resistance and can be difficult to locate in safe and
accessible locations.
Agreement on the need for more housing units is widespread. As noted, increasing housing supply is a
national challenge. Population in Queens County and the Capital Region has been growing for some time
and its growth has accelerated. Nearly all stakeholders see increased population on the Island as a
desirable objective. No contact we spoke to individually or in our focus groups argued for limiting
immigration. Several noted the alternative of declining and aging population that the Province’s pro-
immigration policies have forestalled. Many recognize housing is critical to sustain in-migration and
maintain the region’s growth rate, and that increased housing supply will control prices and rents.
Our contacts, who generally have professional interests in housing or are residents with strong views on
housing issues, almost universally supported strategies to encourage more intense housing development.
Expressed opinions supported increased construction of attached housing and apartment units.
Liberalization of zoning regulations and growth management strategies were also repeatedly advocated.
129
Nonetheless, community opposition was identified most often as the primary barrier to intensification of
residential development. Developers, builders, and non-profit housing providers all want to build housing
units and recent construction data for the region amply demonstrates their willingness to build and shift
housing supply to exactly the type of units that they and other contacts argued are in dire need. The
resistance of the wider public to these housing types near to their more traditional homes or NIMBYism
(Not In My Back Yard) was repeatedly cited by municipal planners and housing professionals as the
primary challenge to their efforts to provide more dwelling units.
While the issue has become more pressing, it is not new. The concept of Smart Growth was developed to
counter NIMBYism in the 1990s and has attracted support from diverse constituencies across North
America. It follows ten basic principles:
1. Mix land uses
2. Take advantage of compact design
3. Create a range of housing opportunities and choices
4. Create walkable neighborhoods
5. Foster distinctive, attractive communities with a strong sense of place
6. Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, and critical environmental areas
7. Direct development towards existing communities
8. Provide a variety of transportation choices
9. Make development decisions predictable, fair, and cost effective
10. Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration in development decisions. 58
Smart Growth properly executed addresses housing needs, community design, energy conservation,
environmental protection, and financial impacts. There are many examples of vibrant communities that
have been developed or enhanced through application of these ideas. As noted, many of our contacts are
well-aware of the key tenets, including the final injunction to engage the community in implementation.
Many recognized the need to educate the public and allay fears concerning the consequences of denser
development.
Our analysis of current zoning in Section 6.6, above, reveals, somewhat surprisingly, that current bylaws
allow for substantial additions to housing stock in the Capital Region. The challenges of converting
development rights into habitable units are nevertheless considerable. Even on the many properties that
allow as-of-right construction, many steps are required. Most landowners are not developers or builders.
Property must be in the hands of individuals or companies with the desire, knowledge, and capability to
58
The Smart Growth Network, This is Smart Growth, circa 2007, "Smart Growth Principles," unnumbered page.
130
build. After determining that a project is financially feasible, a builder or developer must have designs
prepared, secure permits, arrange financing, and engage needed assistance from lawyers to workers to
real estate professionals. Time is then required to build units suitable for occupancy and sell or lease
them to the public wanting accommodation.
Most of the process is beyond the influence of local government; however, municipalities can create a
favourable environment for development by planning complementary infrastructure and creating a
supportive environment. This does not mean deregulation, notwithstanding that the effectiveness and
efficiency of regulation should always be scrutinized. Several recent plans and studies prepared for
municipalities in the Capital Region have espoused Smart Growth principles and developed policy
directions supporting intensification. Full implementation of these initiatives will however require a formal
regional growth management strategy covering the three core municipalities at the minimum but, ideally,
all of Queens County. The program of growth strategy creation should include broad public consultation
with community surveys, focus groups, and public meetings, and should result in an accessible document
complemented by public information materials such as web pages and brochures explaining the
objectives and benefits of managing and directing development.
Other initiatives are smaller scale and engendered varying degrees of debate. Evidence from the City of
Charlottetown, for example, clearly demonstrates that if units used for short-term rental had been
available for long-term occupancy in 2018 when the region’s vacancy rate bottomed out at 0.2%, vacancy
would have remained above the 2% minimum generally considered acceptable by housing analysts. It is
equally true, however, that vacancy rates have fluctuated considerably in the region and at most times
would be acceptable regardless of the stock that has shifted to short-term occupancy. It is also arguable
that the recent jump in the number of short-term rental units has been stimulated by the introduction of
new technology and the abrupt shift of the last five years is a one-time event.
In addition to their impact on long-term rental unit supply, short-term units have impacted traditional
hotel/motel operators and are currently in a grey area in which they are not generally recognized as a
distinct land use. They are not defined in municipal development bylaws like very similar uses such as
bed and breakfast establishments. They also do not comply with the same occupancy and safety
requirements as traditional providers of overnight accommodations and avoid licensing requirements and
some taxes. The Federal government, for example, has expressed concern that short-term rental
operators are often not aware of their obligation to pay GST/HST. In 2020, the national government
declared its intention to collect the tax either through operators or the platform providers. 59 In the interest
of financial fairness and public safety, complementary Provincial and municipal initiatives may be
necessary to ensure short-term rental is treated in the same manner as other businesses that are taxed
and regulated.
There is undoubtedly tension between pro-market views and stakeholders who believe government
intervention is essential. The divide is most apparent with respect to rent controls. Most developers and
builders, and many members of the public argue that higher rents will stimulate the production of needed
59
Canada. Department of Finance, Supporting Canadians and Fighting Covid-19: Fall Economic Statement 2020, 2020, p. 112,
https://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2020/report-rapport/FES-EEA-eng.pdf.
131
housing units. They can point to the marked increase in housing production in Charlottetown over the
past decade as evidence. As sale prices and rents have risen, the construction industry has significantly
increased production and has shifted output to attached housing and apartment units that are the most
needed (see Figure 5-10 and Figure 5-11, above). Supporters of rent controls counter that additional
units are, nevertheless, insufficient, and new housing units are rarely affordable for low-income
households. They also frequently add that households that must rent their accommodation are at a
significant disadvantage in dealing with landlords who have more knowledge and resources, and more
power in the community than their prospective tenants.
A rental registry is seen by many as a key tool to redress the imbalance between landlords and tenants.
At its most basic level, a registry that will maintain an ongoing record of rental properties and applicable
rents will prevent landlords from deceiving tenants concerning applicable increases. A reasonably robust
database can also support the generation of statistical information such as average rents by type and in
specific areas that can assist both landlords and tenants to better understand the market and fair pricing.
Depending on whether the government is willing to allow searching of individual records, which can be
done readily through a variety of online resources when buying and selling real estate, a registry could be
a useful tool for tenants looking for and assessing rental options. While some landlords are opposed to a
registry, a tool that will allow tenants to identify suitable accommodation would seem likely to benefit
landlords as a group by facilitating occupancy of their units.
The initiative to create a rental registry is with the Province of PEI, which enforces rent controls. Stantec is
currently investigating issues related to potential establishment of the envisioned database. Municipalities
that approve of the initiative can assist by expressing their support and sharing data, although most
necessary inputs are under Provincial control. Other than rents and services included in rent, most of the
necessary data items are recorded and regularly updated in Provincial land use and assessment
databases. Municipalities are a potential source of zoning and more detailed land use information that
could supplement Provincial data and enhance the value of a registry as a tool for monitoring and
assessing the rental market.
Developers and builders appeared to agree that it is not feasible to build profitably for disadvantaged
households There is, no doubt, a spectrum of requirements suited to different levels of public sector
involvement. Some municipalities require the incorporation of affordable units in developments in return
for allowing increased numbers of units overall, additional height, or other benefits that enhance
profitability. Halifax Regional Municipality, which employs performance-based incentives to encourage
affordable housing, has recently changed its approach to require builders to contribute to a fund for
supported housing recognizing that it is difficult to ensure the affordability of units under private
management.
Governments can use such funds to build projects for households in need or to subsidize them to buy or
rent accommodation in market developments. Government can also act directly by allocating general tax
revenues to the construction of low-income housing projects that it may build and manage itself or
operate at arm’s length through trusted non-profit or private sector providers. The cost of providing
substantial numbers of publicly constructed housing units is normally beyond the resources of municipal
governments, although it is feasible to leverage funding from senior governments.
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A stronger approach is inclusionary zoning, which has recently been proposed by the governments of
both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Inclusionary zoning allows municipalities to prescribe a percentage
of affordable housing in new developments. Nova Scotia’s Affordable Housing through Inclusionary
Zoning Act, proposed in spring of 2021, that a land use (i.e., zoning) bylaw may incorporate inclusionary
zones consistent with the following specifications:
(1) A land-use by-law may designate any part of the municipality, including an
individual parcel, building or development, as an inclusionary housing zone.
(2) A land-use by-law designating an inclusionary housing zone may
(a) define housing types by reference to affordability;
(b) require housing, or a portion of housing, built in the zone to be of one or

more defined types; and
(c) create an administrative mechanism to confirm or verify the affordability

of housing.
(3) A land-use by-law designating an inclusionary housing zone may provide that the
municipality may accept money in lieu of an obligation arising under the by-law.
(4) Where a municipality accepts money under subsection (3), it must use that
money for the purpose of inclusionary land-use. 60
New Brunswick’s Review of the Rental Landscape in New Brunswick recommended inclusionary zoning
to address rental market concerns 61 and recently committed to permitting municipalities to implement the
approach through the Provincial Government’s White Paper on municipal reform. 62
7.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
The following recommendations reflect the scope of municipal responsibility in PEI. Our emphasis is on
areas in which our client municipalities for this study can act independently or in collaboration with each
other. Municipalities can certainly call for assistance from senior governments and press for actions that
will address challenges affecting their residents. Municipal governments can also express support for
senior government and private sector initiatives that they anticipate will benefit them and/or their
residents, which we have also noted. Housing challenges, however, will not be resolved by one level of
government or by government alone. They require collective and collaborative action in a forum to which
municipal governments will both deliver solutions and advocate for action by others.
60
Bill 40, the proposed Nova Scotia, Affordable Housing through Inclusionary Zoning Act, received first reading on March 23,
2021. Premier Tim Houston announced the Provincial Government’s intention to incorporate provisions to permit inclusionary
zoning in October 2021 (see: Michael Gorman, “N.S. government extends 2% rent cap until Dec. 31, 2023,” CBC News,
October 20, 2021).
61
New Brunswick Office of the Chief Operating Officer, Clerk of the Executive Council, Review of the Rental Landscape in New
Brunswick, May 2021, p. 37.
62
New Brunswick Environment and Local Government, Working Together for Vibrant and Sustainable Communities, November
2021, p. 26.
133
Based on the foregoing conclusions, our recommendations to address housing needs in the Capital
Region are as follows (see Table 7-1, below, for concordance between conclusions and
recommendations):
1. Create an Intergovernmental Committee – All three levels of government have roles in the
provision, regulation, and maintenance of housing, as we have noted. Locally, municipalities and
areas under the direct jurisdiction of the Province administer portions of a regional housing
market. Coordination of activities across multiple government agencies can assist with the
collection and maintenance of housing data, the monitoring of housing issues, and the delivery of
housing supports:
• Housing Data – While housing data is plentiful, we have noted it is often not available in
sufficient detail or reliability to be applied to assessment of housing issues in PEI. Staff
with the Provincial Department of Social Development and Housing are working with
Statistics Canada and CMHC to increase sampling of communities on the Island to
generate useable sub-provincial data. An Inter-governmental Committee can support and
reinforce this initiative.
The proposed Committee should also pursue initiatives to generate data locally. Uniform,
shared reporting of building permit data would, for example, be helpful to enhance
understanding of housing trends from year-to-year. Improved land use data, recorded in
GIS databases, which Charlottetown, Cornwall, and Stratford all maintain, would be even
more beneficial. Better records of residential occupancy distinguishing ownership from
rental, subsidized and specialized housing units, and short-term rentals is critical to
understanding the dynamics of local housing as its supply grows and changes.
• Monitoring Issues – While the collection of data is important to monitoring issues, it

should be made effective through regular analysis. The Charlottetown housing market
extends across Queens County. Understanding requires collaborative review of data and
collective assessment of its implications. The Intergovernmental Committee would be
well-suited to produce an annual report on regional demographics and housing needs,
which would be a key tool to promote and sustain public education. It would also be an
ideal agency to oversee the development of the Regional Growth Management Strategy
discussed following.
• Housing Assistance – The Federal Government through the housing initiatives of the
Nation Housing Strategy, as well as the activities of CMHC, and the Province of PEI
through its Housing Action Plans and related programs provide many supports to housing
development. Municipalities, for their part, provide the planning and development
framework through which housing is delivered both as a human necessity and the anchor
of the built environment. A critical role of the proposed Housing Committee will be to
identify program and funding supports that will support the provision of affordable and
specialized housing in the Charlottetown Region and to develop municipal approaches
that will leverage funding or otherwise encourage the development of affordable housing.
These may include tax incentives for provision of affordable housing, waiving of permit
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fees for affordable housing, and offering surplus municipal property for affordable
development, all of which are recommended under the City of Charlottetown’s 2018
Affordable Housing Incentive Program.
The City of Charlottetown and the Towns of Cornwall and Stratford should be represented on the
Committee as should the PEI Department of Housing and Social Development and CMHC. The
Committee should be a working committee comprised of staff with expertise in housing and
related issues. We would anticipate municipal staff would be drawn from the respective planning
departments, but other municipal staff persons may be considered to have suitable backgrounds
to contribute positively. Consideration should be given to inclusion of representatives from as
many as two other municipalities within Queens County to represent rural interests as well as
select representatives of not-for-profit housing agencies and the residential development
community.
2. Prepare a Growth Management Strategy – A leading priority of the Intergovernmental Committee

should be the creation of a Growth Management Strategy to identify the most suitable locations
for future residential development in Queens County, with detailed assessment of the Capital
Region. The Strategy would build on the land supply analysis completed for this study and
identify specific locations to be zoned for low-, medium-, and high-density residential
development with accompanying recommendations for servicing, road network development, and
transit and active transportation improvements.
A Growth Management Strategy would provide the foundation for improving local housing data
and its ongoing assessment by providing a housing baseline. It should be an objective of the
study to coordinate and improve municipal land use information. It should also identify key
metrics for ongoing monitoring of housing issues in region. Its primary purpose, though, would be
to detail the additional capacity for residential growth identified by this project in currently
developed areas and designate priority areas for infill and future greenfield development.
3. Amend Municipal Policy and Regulations – On completion of the Growth Management Strategy,
its priorities must be implemented through municipal official plans and development bylaws.
Initiatives can be expected to include phased improvements to water and wastewater facilities,
and roadways, transit, and active transportation infrastructure needed to expand the current
urban footprint. Policy should include measures to protect agricultural uses and the natural
environment and ensure appropriate integration of additional housing in the existing urban fabric.
Independent of the Growth Strategy initiative, amendments should be made to official plans,
development bylaws, and zoning maps to increase the opportunities to incorporate additional
dwelling units in existing residential and commercial structures and build housing units in
alternative formats such as tiny homes, garden suites, group homes, mobile homes, and
manufactured homes. All three Capital Region municipalities should prioritize the development of
zoning to allow the construction of high-rise apartment structures, special care facilities, and
shelters in appropriate locations. Potential changes to address immediate concerns might include
explicit recognition of short-term rental as a distinct land use in development bylaws; specification
of smaller lot sizes for homes with smaller footprints (i.e., tiny homes, mini-homes, and homes
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with less than 1,000 square feet of living area); and provisions to facilitate the development of
triplexes, quadruplexes, and stacked townhouses.
Municipalities may also wish to consider changes to provisions that may inhibit housing
development or limit the potential number of units that may be accommodated on a property. A
leading option is the reduction of parking requirements, which Charlottetown endorsed in its
Affordable Housing Incentive Program. Another initiative might be loosening of lot coverage or
open space requirements, particularly where open space needs may be met with indoor and roof
spaces or balconies.
4. Address Vulnerable Populations – The homeless, and physically and mentally challenged
populations require special attention. Because the numbers in these groups are relatively small
and individual members can be challenging to identify for a variety of reasons, data is difficult to
develop and maintain. The point-in-time counts compiled by the John Howard Society respond to
this need, but a more regular and structured approach is required. While three separate counts
have now been completed, the informality of their collection and reporting make it difficult to draw
any firm conclusions concerning the influence of the COVID pandemic or the recent increases in
home prices on the homelessness. With counts aggregated for Charlottetown and Summerside,
furthermore, it is difficult to discern the scale of challenges within the separate municipal
jurisdictions.
The Capital Region municipalities should assist the John Howard Society and/or other
appropriate agencies to conduct point-in-time counts annually within a standardized framework
applied to their jurisdictions. They should also track the supply of specialized housing units for
victims of family violence, individuals with addictions, individuals with physical and mental health
challenges, and others against evolving needs. This would, again, be an ideal role for the
proposed Intergovernmental Committee, which would be well-suited to coordinating data
collection, seeing to its incorporation in municipal land use databases, and reporting it as a
component of an annual housing overview.
The Province has taken steps to increase specialized units and spaces through the Provincial
Housing Action Plan (see Section 2.5 above). Ongoing data collection will establish additional
needs to leverage needed accommodation. Municipalities can facilitate the provision of needed
accommodation through zoning measures proposed through Recommendations 3 and 5 in this
list.
5. Employ Inclusionary Zoning – As we have noted, inclusionary zoning is a key tool being adopted
by many jurisdictions to encourage the integrated development of affordable and specialized
housing. There appears, however, to be a disconnect between the municipalities and the
Province concerning the application of inclusionary zoning measures. Provincial staff we have
consulted have stated they have a legal opinion that no feature of current legislation would
prevent the application of inclusionary zones in development bylaws, but some municipalities
appear to believe they are not empowered to apply the practice.
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Table 7-1 Conclusions and Recommendations, Concordance

Recommendations
4. Address Vulnerable Populations

Prepare a Growth Management
Register and Regulate Short-

Amend Municipal Policy and
Create an Intergovernmental
5. Employ Inclusionary Zoning

• Housing Assistance
• Monitoring Issues
7. Rental Registry
• Housing Data
Term Rental
Regulations
Committee
Strategy
Conclusions
1.
2.
3.
6.
Inter-governmental
Collaboration is Needed X
Continued Growth is Desired X X X X X

Housing Supply must be
X X X X X X X
Increased
Residential Density should be
X X X
Encouraged
Local Housing Data should be
X X X X
Improved
Public Education is Needed X X X X X X
Smaller Residential Units are
X X X X
Needed
More Family-Friendly Rental
Units are Needed X X X X
Conversion of Rental Units

Should be Discouraged X X X
Transportation Options should

X X X
be Expanded
Rent Control has Ambiguous
X
Effects
Housing Supports are Needed X X X X X
Public Housing is Needed X X X X X X
Specialized Housing Needs to
be Encouraged X X X X X X
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Inclusionary zoning can require developers to provide affordable or specialized housing units as a
component of developments throughout the area designated. It is best suited to large
developments in which non-market units can be balanced with market housing. A similar effect
can be achieved through performance standards, which allow developers to obtain benefits such
as increased building height or lot coverage in return for social benefits like the provision of
affordable or accessible units, larger rental units for families, or smaller units for young adults,
singles, and seniors. The approach is widely used by planners in North America to encourage the
development of needed facilities that may not directly produce desired market returns, and is
recommended among the many initiatives proposed in the City of Charlottetown’s Incentive
Program along with inclusionary zoning.
Performance standards can take the form of direct trade-offs, such as allowing an extra storey on
an apartment building provided, for example, ten units meet a prescribed affordability standard
(e.g., rent at 70% of a monitored market level). They may also be leveraged through other means
such as forgiveness of parkland dedication requirements or contribution to a municipal fund
dedicated to subsidizing households in need, build public housing, or otherwise address local
housing needs. Many models are available for implementation including inclusionary zones, but
they must be carefully considered in the context of the Charlottetown region, and the costs and
benefits of proposed trade-offs.
6. Register and Regulate Short-Term Rental – Capital Region municipalities should identify short-
term rental as a distinct land use in their development bylaws and require short-term operators to
register in a municipal database. Ongoing registration will facilitate monitoring of the number of
short-term rental units and the impact of their creation on the long-term rental market. Operators
should be charged to cover the cost of registration and unregistered individuals who offer
accommodations for short-term occupancy, including tenants sub-letting units to short-term
occupants, should be subject to fines or other sanctions sufficient to deter them. Municipalities
may also wish to consider taxation or similar measures to ensure equitable treatment of short-
term rentals relative to hotels/motels and B & Bs as well as to discourage the proliferation of
short-term properties.
7. Rental Registry – The Capital Region municipalities should encourage the Province of PEI to
develop a rental housing registry to record and monitor rental housing stock and provide open
access so that tenants can verify that rents charged are fair and increases do not exceed
annually established Provincial guidelines. Subject to full consideration of privacy concerns, a
well-designed registry site open to all will inform participants in the rental market of rental
opportunities and rents not only creating a fairer market but also a more efficient one in which
units can be more easily and quickly matched with occupant needs and wants. A complete and
accurate database of rental property will also be very valuable to municipalities and other
stakeholders seeking to monitor and respond to housing issues as it will allow them to assess
their own jurisdictions at the neighbourhood or, even, block-face level from year-to-year.
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We do not have a recommendation specific to rent controls other than supporting a rental registry. Rent
controls have been imposed by the Province for many years and, while municipalities may offer their
views on the impact of controls to the Provincial Government, it is up to the Province to amend or revoke
its current legislation. Although rent controls may have been a factor in some conversions of long-term
rental units to short-term occupancy, data indicates controls have not discouraged the construction of
apartments or other housing types that are commonly rented. The absence of rent controls in the
neighbouring provinces of Nova Scotia (where emergency controls have been in place since 2020) and
New Brunswick, furthermore, does not suggest their removal in PEI will have any significant benefits, as
all three provinces are currently dealing with much the same housing issues. On the other hand, many
landlords say that rent controls incentivize them to raise rents by the allowable guideline every year, and
developers have stated that controls are a key reason why nearly all new units are produced at the upper
end of the housing market where owners can establish the maximum base rent.
We recognize that the market cannot be relied on entirely to provide housing for those in need. Increased
public sector involvement in supporting the provision of affordable housing can however take many forms.
In the environment of the Capital Region and PEI, we suggest small-scale interventions to provide
housing in a manner that, as much as possible, is integrated with conventional housing, an approach that
fits well with many of the initiatives proposed by the City of Charlottetown in its Affordable Housing
Incentive Program, which we have cited several times in our recommendations. Recommended
approaches should include the incorporation of affordable units in market developments, infill projects in
established neighbourhoods, and provision of increased assistance to non-profit housing providers.
Inclusionary zoning is likely to be the primary tool to stimulate desirable projects, but form-based code
could also be helpful.
The leading role in public support to housing provision lies with the Province. The Province can delegate
some or all the responsibility to municipal government, as noted, but we believe most of PEI’s municipal
governments are too small to handle it. Even larger communities like Charlottetown, Cornwall, and
Stratford lack the scale to efficiently build and manage housing. Municipalities are much more likely to be
effective encouraging affordability by ensuring a positive environment for residential development and
providing frameworks for development of needed housing types in their building and development plans
and bylaws.
139
APPENDIX A
Sub-area Population Estimates, Migration Estimates and
Housing Estimates
Scenario 1
Figure A-1 Population by Age, Queens County Sub-areas, Scenario 1, 2001-2041
Stratford
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,318 1,386 1,626 1,892 2,216 2,474 2,984 3,592 4,109
15-24 935 929 1,123 1,168 1,368 1,563 1,823 2,101 2,517
25-34 709 853 1,056 1,173 1,374 2,485 2,793 2,839 2,990
35-44 1,026 1,046 1,315 1,458 1,707 2,229 3,206 4,547 5,369
45-54 1,116 1,122 1,284 1,442 1,689 1,802 2,252 2,870 3,983
55-64 643 1,005 1,284 1,272 1,489 1,385 1,577 1,898 2,363
65-74 367 493 730 1,086 1,271 1,502 1,615 1,704 1,885
75-84 218 279 305 398 466 713 980 1,141 1,219
85+ 56 91 150 140 163 218 306 458 624
TOTAL 6,387 7,205 8,873 10,029 11,744 14,371 17,535 21,150 25,058
Charlottetown
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 5,342 4,829 4,978 5,177 5,949 5,591 5,593 5,349 4,745
15-24 4,914 4,996 5,432 5,182 5,955 5,654 5,532 5,344 5,317
25-34 4,431 3,991 4,344 4,991 5,735 7,524 5,462 4,192 4,411
35-44 4,696 4,321 4,360 4,289 4,929 5,249 6,456 6,702 4,533
45-54 4,775 4,920 5,421 5,006 5,753 4,911 4,883 5,137 6,241
55-64 3,164 3,966 4,896 5,280 6,068 5,146 4,851 4,730 4,707
65-74 2,456 2,711 3,020 3,933 4,520 4,968 5,285 5,140 4,855
75-84 1,955 1,975 2,092 2,255 2,592 3,406 3,866 4,122 4,359
85+ 862 965 1,082 1,125 1,293 1,312 1,486 1,793 1,959
TOTAL 32,594 32,674 35,625 37,237 42,793 43,761 43,415 42,508 41,128
Cornwall
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,037 1,108 1,158 1,070 1,234 1,055 978 937 830
15-24 624 618 719 718 829 793 708 587 555
25-34 601 607 579 594 686 902 716 555 486
35-44 733 750 833 801 924 924 1,007 1,065 834
45-54 688 684 765 822 948 875 855 848 918
55-64 446 592 672 682 787 751 834 873 859
65-74 206 260 414 568 656 576 562 613 674
75-84 104 112 155 212 245 437 526 461 456
85+ 26 41 31 52 60 107 185 322 438
TOTAL 4,466 4,772 5,327 5,518 6,369 6,421 6,371 6,259 6,050
East CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 581 528 594 657 751 702 651 605 538
15-24 406 386 374 359 411 423 495 485 457
25-34 342 360 374 318 364 464 358 305 356
35-44 501 492 466 477 545 486 452 460 335
45-54 427 431 502 539 616 586 609 551 508
55-64 258 386 415 436 499 497 547 601 627
65-74 151 173 236 303 346 333 331 384 417
75-84 89 101 87 118 135 193 247 228 275
85+ 24 25 31 26 29 44 65 112 136
TOTAL 2,780 2,882 3,079 3,234 3,695 3,728 3,754 3,731 3,650
Central CA
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,954 1,669 1,609 1,781 2,085 2,051 2,047 1,956 1,688
15-24 1,274 1,194 1,231 1,047 1,226 1,055 1,199 1,201 1,257
25-34 1,161 1,092 1,119 1,134 1,328 1,622 1,109 794 892
35-44 1,542 1,383 1,297 1,247 1,460 1,557 1,689 1,677 1,106
45-54 1,337 1,511 1,578 1,514 1,773 1,483 1,440 1,507 1,620
55-64 774 1,046 1,420 1,611 1,887 1,685 1,660 1,593 1,550
65-74 457 582 715 990 1,160 1,351 1,490 1,507 1,475
75-84 257 296 301 380 445 649 788 887 969
85+ 55 51 66 87 102 146 192 266 310
TOTAL 8,812 8,824 9,337 9,791 11,467 11,600 11,615 11,387 10,866
West CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,002 995 1,023 1,083 1,263 1,178 1,198 1,227 1,172
15-24 726 692 646 667 778 872 902 816 853
25-34 523 560 553 570 665 844 710 672 642
35-44 819 778 702 724 844 869 959 988 806
45-54 820 879 893 883 1,030 972 1,005 1,023 1,104
55-64 425 687 857 899 1,048 882 891 956 991
65-74 296 348 382 585 683 788 810 769 781
75-84 154 126 201 236 275 412 546 612 627
85+ 45 45 46 41 48 63 77 121 142
TOTAL 4,809 5,110 5,304 5,689 6,634 6,881 7,098 7,184 7,117
Southeast
Queens
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 746 607 505 474 551 578 753 987 1,139
15-24 426 449 407 510 592 576 512 468 537
25-34 285 252 283 362 421 783 879 818 746
35-44 566 414 319 347 403 501 672 966 1,084
45-54 482 557 587 474 551 426 456 549 723
55-64 293 419 500 510 592 479 389 355 388
65-74 301 301 268 342 397 384 376 338 269
75-84 149 178 211 194 225 307 345 327 319
85+ 65 74 103 107 124 107 114 135 145
TOTAL 3,314 3,251 3,183 3,320 3,856 4,140 4,496 4,944 5,350
West Queens
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,793 1,578 1,541 1,490 1,632 1,438 1,340 1,274 1,122
15-24 1,132 1,131 1,110 1,021 1,118 1,014 997 850 801
25-34 1,046 893 802 801 878 1,129 783 618 607
35-44 1,598 1,405 1,141 1,118 1,224 1,203 1,275 1,315 932
45-54 1,327 1,486 1,721 1,531 1,677 1,307 1,277 1,240 1,294
55-64 997 1,294 1,495 1,725 1,889 1,814 1,699 1,541 1,483
65-74 729 766 1,002 1,296 1,420 1,444 1,606 1,756 1,666
75-84 432 452 493 551 604 913 1,041 1,003 1,125
85+ 152 152 190 194 212 222 268 385 393
TOTAL 9,204 9,157 9,495 9,727 10,653 10,484 10,286 9,981 9,422
Source Census of Canada 2001 to 2016, Stantec estimates 2021 to 2041
Figure A-2 Five-year Net Migration Estimates, the Capital Region, Scenario 1, 2011-2016
Charlottetown
Cornwall Stratford
Central CA
East CA West CA
Southeast Queens West Queens

Figure A-3 Dwelling Units by Type, Queens County Sub-areas, Scenario 1, 2016-2041
Stratford
Apt 5+ Row- Apt 1-4 Other

Year TOTAL Single storeys Semi house Duplex storeys Attached Movable Dwelling
2016 3,820 2,565 10 1,245 345 135 20 745 0
2021 4,565 3,074 0 1,479 399 172 24 884 0
2026 5,029 3,365 0 1,650 447 193 26 986 0
2031 6,266 4,101 0 2,149 682 236 35 1,196 0
2036 7,533 5,043 0 2,475 647 291 47 1,489 0
2041 8,901 5,960 0 2,925 676 349 58 1,842 0
Charlottetown

2016 16,100 7,165 45 1,470 550 505 6,040 35 295
2021 18,918 8,136 40 1,793 678 630 7,288 25 328
2026 20,415 8,774 40 1,943 713 677 7,882 27 360
2031 20,598 8,878 37 1,906 710 686 7,973 28 380
2036 20,869 9,061 35 1,910 702 699 8,030 28 404
2041 20,703 8,811 35 1,961 674 715 8,062 27 418
Cornwall

2016 2,030 1,325 0 200 155 30 145 0 175
2021 2,353 1,503 0 230 199 39 173 0 209
2026 2,570 1,624 0 255 232 43 187 0 230
2031 2,704 1,703 0 261 254 49 191 0 246
2036 2,828 1,784 0 262 275 49 190 0 268
2041 2,857 1,800 0 269 281 47 186 0 274
East CA

2016 1,195 1,030 0 30 15 10 10 0 105
2021 1,429 1,230 0 24 13 15 13 0 134
2026 1,536 1,323 0 26 15 17 15 0 139
2031 1,564 1,351 0 24 15 14 11 0 149
2036 1,597 1,387 0 22 14 12 9 0 154
2041 1,638 1,413 0 25 16 14 10 0 160
Central CA

2016 3,725 3,225 0 70 55 10 15 0 315
2021 4,402 3,890 0 79 63 10 13 0 347
2026 4,827 4,265 0 87 62 14 15 0 383
2031 5,000 4,422 0 86 57 18 11 0 407
2036 5,065 4,466 0 88 56 20 8 0 427
2041 4,934 4,323 0 87 58 24 7 0 434
West CA

2016 2,095 1,940 0 35 0 25 0 0 90
2021 2,474 2,274 0 43 0 51 0 0 106
2026 2,689 2,469 0 46 0 57 0 0 117
2031 2,832 2,597 0 54 0 57 0 0 125
2036 2,950 2,699 0 56 0 58 0 0 138
2041 3,011 2,742 0 56 0 59 0 0 154
Southeast
Queens

2016 1,195 1,145 0 0 10 10 0 0 15
2021 1,395 1,355 0 0 0 0 10 0 30
2026 1,510 1,467 0 0 0 0 10 0 33
2031 1,552 1,508 0 0 0 0 9 0 35
2036 1,643 1,595 0 0 0 0 10 0 38
2041 1,758 1,699 0 0 0 0 13 0 46
West Queens

2016 3,825 3,610 0 20 95 20 10 25 65
2021 4,456 4,201 0 47 116 0 0 18 74
2026 4,597 4,308 0 52 142 0 0 19 76
2031 4,675 4,359 0 58 160 0 0 18 80
2036 4,663 4,326 0 60 172 0 0 17 88
2041 4,542 4,195 0 61 177 0 0 18 91
APPENDIX B
Housing Estimates
Scenario 2
Figure B-1 Population by Age, Queens County Sub-areas, Scenario 2, 2001-2041
Stratford
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,318 1,386 1,626 1,892 2,216 2,394 2,832 3,464 4,221
15-24 935 929 1,123 1,168 1,368 1,726 1,995 2,279 2,622
25-34 709 853 1,056 1,173 1,374 2,714 3,658 4,394 5,001
35-44 1,026 1,046 1,315 1,458 1,707 2,228 3,246 4,920 6,893
45-54 1,116 1,122 1,284 1,442 1,689 1,697 2,100 2,699 3,836
55-64 643 1,005 1,284 1,272 1,489 1,307 1,378 1,583 1,956
65-74 367 493 730 1,086 1,271 1,556 1,661 1,668 1,741
75-84 218 279 305 398 466 739 1,118 1,372 1,433
85+ 56 91 150 140 163 214 296 456 669
TOTAL 6,387 7,205 8,873 10,029 11,744 14,575 18,284 22,835 28,372
Charlottetown
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 5,342 4,829 4,978 5,177 5,949 5,747 6,225 6,776 7,075
15-24 4,914 4,996 5,432 5,182 5,955 7,005 7,341 7,351 7,541
25-34 4,431 3,991 4,344 4,991 5,735 8,843 9,383 9,287 9,471
35-44 4,696 4,321 4,360 4,289 4,929 5,404 6,733 8,400 8,667
45-54 4,775 4,920 5,421 5,006 5,753 5,161 5,403 5,873 7,186
55-64 3,164 3,966 4,896 5,280 6,068 5,235 5,122 5,265 5,533
65-74 2,456 2,711 3,020 3,933 4,520 4,910 5,183 5,103 5,005
75-84 1,955 1,975 2,092 2,255 2,592 3,535 4,114 4,380 4,579
85+ 862 965 1,082 1,125 1,293 1,318 1,562 1,973 2,273
TOTAL 32,594 32,674 35,625 37,237 42,793 47,158 51,067 54,407 57,329
Cornwall
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,037 1,108 1,158 1,070 1,234 1,132 1,149 1,231 1,288
15-24 624 618 719 718 829 976 924 844 829
25-34 601 607 579 594 686 1,047 1,124 1,073 989
35-44 733 750 833 801 924 991 1,161 1,411 1,533
45-54 688 684 765 822 948 896 946 1,011 1,176
55-64 446 592 672 682 787 720 768 836 893
65-74 206 260 414 568 656 640 640 665 706
75-84 104 112 155 212 245 379 420 379 396
85+ 26 41 31 52 60 90 139 212 249
TOTAL 4,466 4,772 5,327 5,518 6,369 6,870 7,269 7,664 8,060
East CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 581 528 594 657 751 727 738 773 787
15-24 406 386 374 359 411 493 537 538 548
25-34 342 360 374 318 364 545 578 581 608
35-44 501 492 466 477 545 555 592 692 733
45-54 427 431 502 539 616 591 638 656 696
55-64 258 386 415 436 499 460 488 539 587
65-74 151 173 236 303 346 352 348 374 391
75-84 89 101 87 118 135 188 220 200 220
85+ 24 25 31 26 29 42 52 82 82
TOTAL 2,780 2,882 3,079 3,234 3,695 3,952 4,189 4,435 4,652
Central CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,954 1,669 1,609 1,781 2,085 2,097 2,259 2,474 2,559
15-24 1,274 1,194 1,231 1,047 1,226 1,362 1,443 1,472 1,590
25-34 1,161 1,092 1,119 1,134 1,328 2,012 2,048 1,951 1,965
35-44 1,542 1,383 1,297 1,247 1,460 1,625 1,968 2,405 2,465
45-54 1,337 1,511 1,578 1,514 1,773 1,597 1,663 1,817 2,163
55-64 774 1,046 1,420 1,611 1,887 1,693 1,720 1,781 1,865
65-74 457 582 715 990 1,160 1,280 1,360 1,382 1,397
75-84 257 296 301 380 445 642 759 792 843
85+ 55 51 66 87 102 136 180 251 283
TOTAL 8,812 8,824 9,337 9,791 11,467 12,445 13,401 14,325 15,130
West CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,002 995 1,023 1,083 1,263 1,233 1,328 1,483 1,611
15-24 726 692 646 667 778 973 1,004 987 1,046
25-34 523 560 553 570 665 1,026 1,145 1,209 1,210
35-44 819 778 702 724 844 925 1,118 1,371 1,531
45-54 820 879 893 883 1,030 985 1,070 1,166 1,375
55-64 425 687 857 899 1,048 909 926 1,009 1,105
65-74 296 348 382 585 683 752 766 756 773
75-84 154 126 201 236 275 405 503 516 521
85+ 45 45 46 41 48 57 69 114 113
TOTAL 4,809 5,110 5,304 5,689 6,634 7,265 7,929 8,611 9,284
Southeast
Queens
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 746 607 505 474 551 563 698 916 1,133
15-24 426 449 407 510 592 768 824 831 891
25-34 285 252 283 362 421 773 979 1,120 1,172
35-44 566 414 319 347 403 482 644 930 1,179
45-54 482 557 587 474 551 466 495 572 742
55-64 293 419 500 510 592 500 458 447 474
65-74 301 301 268 342 397 404 403 386 352
75-84 149 178 211 194 225 318 370 367 366
85+ 65 74 103 107 124 129 151 191 221
TOTAL 3,314 3,251 3,183 3,320 3,856 4,402 5,022 5,759 6,531
West Queens
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,793 1,578 1,541 1,490 1,632 1,484 1,469 1,522 1,524
15-24 1,132 1,131 1,110 1,021 1,118 1,233 1,191 1,083 1,047
25-34 1,046 893 802 801 878 1,287 1,243 1,132 1,068
35-44 1,598 1,405 1,141 1,118 1,224 1,267 1,424 1,665 1,650
45-54 1,327 1,486 1,721 1,531 1,677 1,404 1,402 1,434 1,589
55-64 997 1,294 1,495 1,725 1,889 1,689 1,620 1,572 1,565
65-74 729 766 1,002 1,296 1,420 1,442 1,500 1,533 1,483
75-84 432 452 493 551 604 859 947 895 954
85+ 152 152 190 194 212 220 257 355 360
TOTAL 9,204 9,157 9,495 9,727 10,653 10,885 11,053 11,191 11,241
Figure B-2 Five-year Net Migration Estimates, Capital Region, Scenario 2, 2011-2021
Charlottetown
Cornwall Stratford
Central CA
East CA West CA

Figure B-3 Dwelling Units by Type, Queens County Sub-areas, Scenario 2, 2016-2041
Stratford

2016 3,820 2,565 10 345 135 20 745 0 10
2021 4,565 3,074 0 399 172 24 884 0 12
2026 5,267 3,486 0 476 203 27 1,062 0 13
2031 6,767 4,363 0 713 260 36 1,380 0 16
2036 8,491 5,560 0 763 338 51 1,763 0 16
2041 10,537 6,982 0 842 428 71 2,198 0 16
Charlottetown

2016 16,100 7,165 45 1,470 550 505 6,040 35 295
2021 18,918 8,136 40 1,793 678 630 7,288 25 328
2026 21,481 9,104 46 2,069 772 726 8,367 27 370
2031 23,304 9,847 50 2,184 848 809 9,129 28 408
2036 25,288 10,762 53 2,413 925 889 9,763 28 454
2041 27,160 11,586 57 2,654 996 974 10,359 27 507
Cornwall

2016 2,030 1,325 0 200 155 30 145 0 175
2021 2,353 1,503 0 230 199 39 173 0 209
2026 2,684 1,687 0 265 243 49 200 0 241
2031 2,968 1,859 0 276 281 57 220 0 276
2036 3,260 2,031 0 307 311 58 231 0 322
2041 3,520 2,186 0 339 330 57 242 0 365
East CA

2016 1,195 1,030 0 30 15 10 10 0 105
2021 1,429 1,230 0 24 13 15 13 0 134
2026 1,610 1,381 0 29 15 20 17 0 149
2031 1,765 1,512 0 31 15 21 18 0 169
2036 1,900 1,626 0 32 14 22 17 0 189
2041 2,054 1,749 0 37 15 24 17 0 212
Central CA

2016 3,725 3,225 0 70 55 10 15 0 315
2021 4,402 3,890 0 79 63 10 13 0 347
2026 5,030 4,434 0 92 70 14 18 0 402
2031 5,567 4,899 0 102 73 18 18 0 457
2036 6,109 5,359 0 121 75 20 17 0 518
2041 6,586 5,745 0 140 81 22 16 0 582
West CA
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041


2016 2,095 1,940 0 35 0 25 0 0 90
2021 2,474 2,274 0 43 0 51 0 0 106
2026 2,799 2,570 0 48 0 60 0 0 121
2031 3,122 2,860 0 57 0 67 0 0 137
2036 3,485 3,183 0 70 0 74 0 0 159
2041 3,862 3,514 0 82 0 81 0 0 186
Southeast
Queens

2016 1,195 1,145 0 0 10 10 0 0 15
2021 1,395 1,355 0 0 0 0 10 0 30
2026 1,567 1,521 0 0 0 0 10 0 36
2031 1,724 1,671 0 0 0 0 10 0 42
2036 1,926 1,864 0 0 0 0 11 0 50
2041 2,186 2,110 0 0 0 0 15 0 61
West Queens

2016 3,825 3,610 0 20 95 20 10 25 65
2021 4,456 4,201 0 47 116 0 0 18 74
2026 4,754 4,458 0 52 143 0 0 20 80
2031 4,990 4,663 0 51 164 0 0 22 90
2036 5,151 4,792 0 55 176 0 0 23 104
2041 5,273 4,893 0 57 180 0 0 26 117
APPENDIX C
Housing Estimates
Scenario 3
Figure C-1 Population by Age, Queens County Sub-areas, Scenario 3, 2001-2041
Stratford
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,318 1,386 1,626 1,892 2,216 2,333 2,710 3,338 4,260
15-24 935 929 1,123 1,168 1,368 1,875 2,203 2,541 2,827
25-34 709 853 1,056 1,173 1,374 2,877 4,333 5,841 7,395
35-44 1,026 1,046 1,315 1,458 1,707 2,226 3,259 5,140 7,936
45-54 1,116 1,122 1,284 1,442 1,689 1,609 1,965 2,531 3,649
55-64 643 1,005 1,284 1,272 1,489 1,253 1,240 1,364 1,660
65-74 367 493 730 1,086 1,271 1,601 1,715 1,668 1,668
75-84 218 279 305 398 466 762 1,223 1,559 1,618
85+ 56 91 150 140 163 210 287 453 692
TOTAL 6,387 7,205 8,873 10,029 11,744 14,746 18,934 24,435 31,705
Charlottetown
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 5,342 4,829 4,978 5,177 5,949 5,826 6,685 8,209 10,068
15-24 4,914 4,996 5,432 5,182 5,955 8,532 10,307 11,391 12,382
25-34 4,431 3,991 4,344 4,991 5,735 10,144 13,969 18,091 22,246
35-44 4,696 4,321 4,360 4,289 4,929 5,566 7,040 10,084 13,671
45-54 4,775 4,920 5,421 5,006 5,753 5,479 6,089 6,855 8,473
55-64 3,164 3,966 4,896 5,280 6,068 5,294 5,358 5,825 6,498
65-74 2,456 2,711 3,020 3,933 4,520 4,783 4,921 4,872 4,946
75-84 1,955 1,975 2,092 2,255 2,592 3,626 4,213 4,370 4,476
85+ 862 965 1,082 1,125 1,293 1,309 1,578 2,047 2,366
TOTAL 32,594 32,674 35,625 37,237 42,793 50,560 60,160 71,744 85,127
Cornwall
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,037 1,108 1,158 1,070 1,234 1,224 1,356 1,600 1,896
15-24 624 618 719 718 829 1,157 1,239 1,264 1,331
25-34 601 607 579 594 686 1,193 1,605 1,897 2,051
35-44 733 750 833 801 924 1,059 1,315 1,773 2,382
45-54 688 684 765 822 948 912 1,028 1,174 1,446
55-64 446 592 672 682 787 688 700 781 889
65-74 206 260 414 568 656 697 727 727 747
75-84 104 112 155 212 245 345 385 389 406
85+ 26 41 31 52 60 67 87 121 122
TOTAL 4,466 4,772 5,327 5,518 6,369 7,341 8,441 9,725 11,269
East CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 581 528 594 657 751 733 787 923 1,067
15-24 406 386 374 359 411 571 628 623 642
25-34 342 360 374 318 364 631 842 1,028 1,142
35-44 501 492 466 477 545 620 756 1,001 1,329
45-54 427 431 502 539 616 583 648 730 882
55-64 258 386 415 436 499 432 437 480 538
65-74 151 173 236 303 346 361 359 363 359
75-84 89 101 87 118 135 189 215 203 210
85+ 24 25 31 26 29 46 65 95 116
TOTAL 2,780 2,882 3,079 3,234 3,695 4,166 4,737 5,447 6,286
Central CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,954 1,669 1,609 1,781 2,085 2,092 2,352 2,875 3,472
15-24 1,274 1,194 1,231 1,047 1,226 1,758 2,061 2,175 2,345
25-34 1,161 1,092 1,119 1,134 1,328 2,345 3,183 4,142 5,005
35-44 1,542 1,383 1,297 1,247 1,460 1,695 2,201 3,063 4,169
45-54 1,337 1,511 1,578 1,514 1,773 1,714 1,927 2,212 2,785
55-64 774 1,046 1,420 1,611 1,887 1,679 1,732 1,908 2,152
65-74 457 582 715 990 1,160 1,243 1,273 1,287 1,325
75-84 257 296 301 380 445 638 740 733 766
85+ 55 51 66 87 102 116 153 216 228
TOTAL 8,812 8,824 9,337 9,791 11,467 13,279 15,621 18,612 22,246
West CA
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,002 995 1,023 1,083 1,263 1,267 1,414 1,673 1,987
15-24 726 692 646 667 778 1,064 1,101 1,143 1,205
25-34 523 560 553 570 665 1,165 1,567 1,848 2,038
35-44 819 778 702 724 844 972 1,236 1,675 2,249
45-54 820 879 893 883 1,030 996 1,124 1,286 1,594
55-64 425 687 857 899 1,048 929 957 1,056 1,196
65-74 296 348 382 585 683 727 737 752 770
75-84 154 126 201 236 275 396 464 449 464
85+ 45 45 46 41 48 63 83 121 120
TOTAL 4,809 5,110 5,304 5,689 6,634 7,578 8,683 10,004 11,623
Southeast
8,000
Queens
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 746 607 505 474 551 552 637 773 932
15-24 426 449 407 510 592 853 1,022 1,128 1,236
25-34 285 252 283 362 421 734 944 1,194 1,396
35-44 566 414 319 347 403 463 597 833 1,079
45-54 482 557 587 474 551 526 584 661 818
55-64 293 419 500 510 592 522 536 586 653
65-74 301 301 268 342 397 424 441 440 455
75-84 149 178 211 194 225 321 381 395 408
85+ 65 74 103 107 124 138 165 214 253
TOTAL 3,314 3,251 3,183 3,320 3,856 4,534 5,306 6,225 7,231
West Queens
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL
Cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 1,793 1,578 1,541 1,490 1,632 1,533 1,603 1,807 2,020
15-24 1,132 1,131 1,110 1,021 1,118 1,487 1,552 1,493 1,482
25-34 1,046 893 802 801 878 1,447 1,810 2,031 2,092
35-44 1,598 1,405 1,141 1,118 1,224 1,330 1,573 2,024 2,548
45-54 1,327 1,486 1,721 1,531 1,677 1,504 1,572 1,689 1,955
55-64 997 1,294 1,495 1,725 1,889 1,570 1,513 1,570 1,647
65-74 729 766 1,002 1,296 1,420 1,435 1,401 1,323 1,284
75-84 432 452 493 551 604 814 882 817 807
85+ 152 152 190 194 212 213 240 323 319
TOTAL 9,204 9,157 9,495 9,727 10,653 11,332 12,147 13,077 14,154
Figure C-2 Five-year Net Migration Estimates, Capital Region, Scenario 3, 2016-2021
Charlottetown
90+ 3.1%
27.8%
85-89 27.7%
11.2%
80-84 16.0%
11.2%
75-79 6.2%
6.1%
70-74 -10.5%
-1.3%
65-69 6.2%
14.4%
60-64 19.6%
12.2%
55-59 7.4%
13.0%
50-54 11.2%
10.3%
45-49 11.3%
11.2%
40-44 10.9%
11.7%
35-39 -6.9%
7.1%
30-34 -20.4%
-5.6%
25-29 -7.7%
-13.2%
20-24 32.2%
34.6%
15-19 27.0%
25.1%
10-14 9.1%
9.1%
5-9 18.8%
26.1%
0-4 -13.6%
-16.6%
-150.0% -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0%
Male Female
Cornwall Stratford
Central CA
East CA West CA

Figure C-3 Dwelling Units by Type, Queens County Sub-areas, Scenario 3, 2016-2041
Stratford

2016 3,820 2,565 10 1,245 345 135 20 745 0
2021 4,565 3,074 0 1,479 399 172 24 884 0
2026 5,506 3,607 0 1,886 506 213 28 1,139 0
2031 7,271 4,632 0 2,623 730 284 37 1,573 0
2036 9,599 6,130 0 3,452 904 387 55 2,106 0
2041 12,544 8,141 0 4,386 1,099 514 82 2,692 0
Charlottetown

2016 16,100 7,165 45 8,595 1,470 550 505 6,040 35
2021 18,918 8,136 40 10,414 1,793 678 630 7,288 25
2026 22,545 9,432 52 12,683 2,195 833 777 8,851 27
2031 26,408 10,913 66 14,992 2,499 1,015 954 10,497 28
2036 31,414 12,942 81 17,875 3,147 1,241 1,162 12,299 27
2041 37,498 15,668 96 21,105 3,813 1,526 1,411 14,328 27
Cornwall

2016 2,030 1,325 0 525 200 155 30 145 0
2021 2,353 1,503 0 641 230 199 39 173 0
2026 2,798 1,751 0 795 275 254 54 213 0
2031 3,283 2,039 0 934 299 311 68 256 0
2036 3,921 2,402 0 1,124 375 372 78 299 0
2041 4,644 2,833 0 1,310 453 429 85 343 0
East CA

2016 1,195 1,030 0 65 30 15 10 10 0
2021 1,429 1,230 0 65 24 13 15 13 0
2026 1,686 1,439 0 88 32 15 22 19 0
2031 1,999 1,698 0 108 38 15 30 25 0
2036 2,376 2,011 0 129 48 14 37 30 0
2041 2,824 2,381 0 152 59 14 44 34 0
Central CA

2016 3,725 3,225 0 175 70 55 10 15 0
2021 4,402 3,890 0 165 79 63 10 13 0
2026 5,233 4,602 0 209 97 78 15 20 0
2031 6,211 5,438 0 257 119 94 18 26 0
2036 7,526 6,558 0 322 161 108 20 32 0
2041 9,236 8,015 0 400 214 127 20 39 0
West CA

2016 2,095 1,940 0 60 35 0 25 0 0
2021 2,474 2,274 0 94 43 0 51 0 0
2026 2,910 2,671 0 113 50 0 63 0 0
2031 3,435 3,148 0 136 59 0 77 0 0
2036 4,128 3,768 0 175 82 0 94 0 0
2041 4,938 4,492 0 221 111 0 110 0 0
Southeast
Queens

2016 1,195 1,145 0 30 0 10 10 0 0
2021 1,395 1,355 0 10 0 0 0 10 0
2026 1,623 1,574 0 11 0 0 0 11 0
2031 1,881 1,821 0 12 0 0 0 12 0
2036 2,193 2,120 0 14 0 0 0 14 0
2041 2,604 2,512 0 17 0 0 0 17 0
West Queens

2016 3,825 3,610 0 155 20 95 20 10 25
2021 4,456 4,201 0 181 47 116 0 0 18
2026 4,909 4,607 0 218 52 144 0 0 22
2031 5,356 5,016 0 238 46 166 0 0 26
2036 5,870 5,479 0 263 52 179 0 0 33
2041 6,471 6,037 0 277 54 183 0 0 40

Charlottetown Region Housing Needs Assessment Report Final (2022)

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Charlottetown Region Growth

Study and Housing Needs

102-40 Highfield Park Drive, Dartmouth, NS B3A 0A3 0

Charlottetown Region Growth

May 16, 2022

The housing market in Canada and the

City of Charlottetown, Town of

Stantec Consulting Ltd.

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1

2.0 HOUSING ISSUES ........................................................................................................... 5

3.0 ECONOMIC PROFILE .................................................................................................... 41

4.0 CONSULTATION SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 51

5.0 POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS ...................................................................... 63

6.0 FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSING....................................................................... 87

7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................ 124

APPENDIX A Sub-area Population Projections, Migration Estimates and Housing

APPENDIX B Sub-area Population Projections, Migration Estimates and Housing

APPENDIX C Sub-area Population Projections, Migration Estimates and Housing

POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS

FUTURE POPULATION AND HOUSING

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Adequate housing is a fundamental human right that is recognized in international law,

2.1 HOUSING TRENDS

PEI Queens Capital Region

PEI PEI (cont’d) Queens Capital Region

Table 2-1 (cont’d)

Number % Core Need

Canada PEI Charlottetown

2.2 HOUSING PRICES

February 1 May 29 August 31

Figure 2-5 Percentage of Workers Working Some Scheduled (non-overtime) Hours at

2.3 HOUSING RENTS

Figure 2-6 Rented Private Dwellings, Capitol Region, 2001-2016

475 550 805 1,090

Source Census of Canada

Single 84.8%, 10,165

Source Census of Canada 2016

Figure 2-8 Average Rents, Constant 2002$, PEI, 1990-2020

Differences Between IRAC Approved Increase and Actual Rent Increases

Source IRAC and CMHC

All census agglomerations 50,000 and over Charlottetown

2.4 ALTERNATIVE HOUSING

Table 2-6 Public Housing, Canada and Provinces, 2016

• Bedford-MacDonald House (Charlottetown) – 10 beds

• Blooming House (Charlottetown) – 8 beds

• Anderson House (women and children fleeing violence – Charlottetown) – 8 beds

• Smith Lodge (transitional – Charlottetown) – 9 beds

• Smith Lodge (emergency – Charlottetown) – 6 to 11 beds

• Scattered sites (Summerside, elsewhere) – 10 beds.

… in April 2019, 1 in 50 private dwellings in Charlottetown (1.93%) were listed on Airbnb

2.5 HOUSING CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES

whether it is owned or rented. $200,000

• Planning Policies/Controls – A variety of planning initiatives have been accused of driving up

o Neighbourhood Protection – Another set of planning measures has sought to stabilize or

o Mortgage-backed Securities – Mortgage-backed securities were created in the 1980s by

• Build to Rent Single-detached Homes – In face of the challenges of accumulating a down

• Secondary Suites – Secondary suites or additional units in single-detached homes have

• Affordable Housing Incentives – Many municipalities are pursuing a variety of initiatives to

• Co-operatives – In a housing cooperative, a residential building or buildings are jointly or