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CPEC’s potential
PAKISTAN is the ‘key link’ in Beijing’s multi-trillion-dollar transactional Belt
and Road Initiative and, therefore, one of the few participating countries
that have gained the most from Chinese investments under this global
cooperation umbrella.

However, Sino-Pakistan cooperation on CPEC — BRI’s flagship project, which seeks to

connect countries across continents via rail, road and maritime routes — has remained
restricted to Beijing’s investments in energy and transport infrastructure projects in
Pakistan over the last one decade.

Chinese firms invested over $25bn in infrastructure development in Pakistan at a time

when investments from elsewhere were drying up. But no progress has been made in
industry and agriculture to boost productivity and exports.

While physical infrastructure is crucial to trade development and economic growth, it is

vital for Pakistan to increase productivity and exports through foreign investment and
technology transfer for tackling its perpetual balance-of-payments and debt crises.

China’s renewed push for BRI global cooperation at the third Belt and Road Forum for
International Cooperation held this week to mark the first decade of BRI’s launch has
afforded Pakistan yet another chance to expand bilateral economic ties with Beijing
beyond debt-creating energy and transport schemes.

Thus, we may take heart from the multiple agreements reached between the two
countries to expand CPEC’s scope, and expand bilateral economic and investment
cooperation to industry, mining, agriculture, livelihood projects, science and technology,
education, etc.

Simultaneously, Beijing has agreed to finance and upgrade the rail track from Peshawar
to Karachi at the reduced cost of $6.7bn and to invest $1.5bn in the refinery business

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here.

These agreements were signed during interim Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq

Kakar’s Beijing visit to participate in the forum where he also met President Xi Jinping
and Prime Minister Li Qiang.

In the past, bilateral cooperation in these important areas was set back by multiple
factors: irresponsible statements by PTI ministers against CPEC investment, bureaucratic
impediments, painfully slow progress on Special Economic Zones for creating industrial
infrastructure to facilitate the relocation of Chinese industry, poor regulatory and policy
regimes, the dollar liquidity crunch and the like.

At the same time, the Covid pandemic, Beijing’s tensions with the West, and its concerns
over security for Chinese nationals working in Pakistan also slowed momentum on BRI
and CPEC.

That President Xi told the forum that China is moving from “sketching the outline”
towards “filling in the details” shows that Beijing is reasserting its position as leader of
“economic multilateralism and globalisation”.

The question is: are we ready to seize this second chance to fully realise the potential of
cooperation on CPEC to develop a green, open and inclusive economy?

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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Media under fire

AN almost endless stream of disinformation and propaganda has
accompanied the hostilities in Gaza both in the social and mainstream
media. A prime example of this are efforts by pro-Israel voices to confuse the
public about the grotesque bombing of the Al Ahli Hospital, particularly as
the atrocity is believed to have been Tel Aviv’s handiwork. That is why it is
important for credible news organisations to continue their work in the
conflict zone, in order to keep the public informed, and sift facts from lies.
However, in the midst of the tragedy where non-combatant deaths are in the
thousands, particularly in the Gaza hellscape, journalists covering the
conflict — especially those based in the besieged Strip — have paid a heavy
price. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, at least 17
mediapersons have lost their lives in the current conflict: 13 Palestinians,
three Israelis and one Lebanese journalist. Most of the casualties have
occurred due to the merciless Israeli aerial assault on Gaza, as Palestinian
journalists have perished with their families.

As CPJ notes, “journalists are civilians doing important work … and must not be targeted
by warring parties”. While mediapersons are in mortal danger while working in active
conflict zones, such a high toll is unacceptable, and reflects the disdain for civilian lives,
particularly by the Israelis. Civilian buildings must be strictly off limits to armed actors,
while the international community must insist on ‘safe zones’ where journalists can work
freely. And if there is proof that mediapersons have been targeted deliberately — as
Palestinian-American Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh was last year by the Israelis
— the guilty must be held to account. There are also disturbing reports that Tel Aviv seeks
to ban Qatar-based Al Jazeera from reporting from Israel. Again, the CPJ has said in this
regard that “a plurality of media voices is essential … to hold power to account”
particularly during wartime. Sadly, much of the Western media, parroting the line their

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governments have taken, have become cheerleaders for Israel. Therefore, in the interest
of balanced coverage, it is important that outlets that make an effort to project the
Palestinian point of view are allowed to work freely. When the powerful try and drown
out the victim, providing a voice to the oppressed becomes imperative for the free media.

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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Unjust bloodshed
THE events that unfolded on Sept 28 in Sindh’s Mari Jalbani village have
called into question the state’s security operations. An HRCP fact-finding
mission found that the “hastily executed” action resulted in the loss of
innocent lives. The operation that allegedly aimed to neutralise threats
ended in the deaths of four villagers and injuries to several others. The
conflicting narratives that have emerged post the incident only serve to
muddy the waters. On one hand, there are claims from the law-enforcement
agencies that they were seeking high-profile militants; on the other, the
locals and the district police assert that the endeavour was poorly conducted,
and those killed were innocent civilians. Moreover, the arbitrary capture and
utilisation of student Liaquat Jalbani by the security forces to guide them
through the village is a gross violation of his rights and has set a disturbing
precedent. The exact nature of the threat prompting the mission remains
unclear.

It goes without saying that every operation must have at its core robust intelligence and
thorough planning. Such incidents only serve to shatter the trust of ordinary citizens in
the state. HRCP’s recommendations warrant serious consideration. A fair and
transparent investigation is the need of the hour. To this end, the formation of an inquiry
committee by the provincial government is a welcome step. Accountability is non-
negotiable. Guilty parties, no matter their rank or affiliation, must face the consequences
of their actions. In addition, the trauma inflicted on the affected families and especially
on Liaquat Jalbani, must not be forgotten, and so, the need for immediate compensation
and support for these victims cannot be overstated. These are not just ethical imperatives
but necessary steps to begin the healing process. The government and security apparatus
must introspect deeply and reform. Extrajudicial killings and violations of human rights

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are unacceptable stains on the fabric of a democratic nation. The people of Mari Jalbani,
and indeed all Pakistanis, deserve better.

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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Waste not the crises

LAST month, the World Bank and the Pakistan Institute of Development
Economics convened a two-day national dialogue titled ‘Reforms for a
Brighter Future: Time to Decide — A Conversation on Pakistan’s
Development Priorities’.

It can be deciphered as: things are not right and reforms are badly needed; if appropriate
reforms are undertaken now, they can lead to a better future, but if they are not
implemented then the future is bleak; this should be decided now, before it is too late.

Why is our economic model no more sustainable? Because it has resulted in a huge, ever-
growing macroeconomic imbalance. Simply put, our income is far less than our spending.
To plug the deficit, we must regularly borrow loans. We are in a vicious cycle, where we
borrow more to return earlier loans and their interest. Covid-19, the global slump, floods,
political instability and rupee depreciation have also caused a deep dent in recent years,
although our economic mismanagement goes far beyond these catastrophes.

The chronicity of this phenomenon has landed us in a situation where our debt and debt
servicing have risen to 82.3 per cent of GDP in 2023. All this hits people very hard. High
inflation and, once again, growing poverty are taking their toll.

Human development is sliding further. Our abysmal health and education indices are a
stark testimony to an economic model which isn’t working. Our infant mortality rate
(over 60 per 1,000 live births) and stunting (40pc of children under five years) are the
highest in South Asia and our literacy rate among adults (above 15 years) is the lowest in
South Asia, even lower than that of sub-Saharan Africa.

So why is economic and development progress still possible? There are examples of
countries that have managed such crises and bounced back. They fastened their belts, put
their house in order and turned around their economies.

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Indonesia, India and Vietnam emerged from their respective crises, introduced and
sustained deep economic reforms and followed positive trajectories. Incremental
economic growth rates have resulted in improvements in living standards, and human
development indicators have improved.

In 1965, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Pakistan were very close to each
other in terms of GDP per capita. Today, South Korea’s per capita income is close to
$35,000, Indonesia’s is more than $14,000, Malaysia’s is close to $14,000, China’s is
over $11,000 while Pakistan’s is only $1,568.

Fundamental shifts are needed in our

economic and development policies.

Sri Lanka was also marred by misgovernance, economic mismanagement and political
instability. Ultimately, it defaulted by announcing a debt repayment moratorium in April
2022, amidst unsustainable debt and critically low reserves. The images of people rioting
inside the presidential residence are still fresh.

Sri Lanka had no option but to initiate wholesale economic and governance reforms.
Early indications are promising. Inflation peaked to an unprecedented 69.8pc during the
crisis last year, more than double that of Pakistan, but, today, it has come down to single
digits. Indeed, it’s too early to form an opinion about what trajectory Sri Lanka will take,
but there is a great opportunity in the crisis if Sri Lanka does not waste it.

Every country has its own context and problems, but the fact remains that there are
countries that have experienced economic crises but have successfully emerged from
them by reshaping their economic and development policies. Our situation is dire but not
an exception. We must develop the resolve to proactively address it rather than shutting
our eyes and waiting for Allah before the worst hits us.

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What fundamental shifts are required in our economic and development policies? While
there is no single cookie-cutter solution, lessons from other countries are useful. The
principles of good economic policies are well laid out. We need to, first and foremost, set
our priorities right. Investing in people should be our first economic priority as this
brings the highest rate of return.

Apart from being a moral argument, it is also good economics. Our youth bulge can be
our greatest resource. Exploiting the globalised world and the huge elastic global demand
for ideas, knowledge, technology, commodities, and human resource, we should
reorganise internally to enhance our abysmally low exports. We need to address the
structural drivers of fiscal deficits and must expand our revenue base and improve our
expenditure quality.

We need to enhance our savings and stop channelling private savings into financing
unproductive government consumption. We need to improve our business environment
to encourage investments and increase public capital investments rather than providing
huge, poorly targeted subsidies. This is a broad but by no means exhaustive list.

Last but not least, economic and political crises are two sides of the same coin. Nothing is
possible without democratic political stability and a credible government. We have been
at a loss on all these counts — for too long. We need broad-based national consensus
among all stakeholders to effectively address our existential challenges.

Former PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has been calling for reimagining Pakistan through a
grand national consensus as our problems have become so deep and complicated that no
one political party or section of the establishment can resolve them. In the last three
years, almost all important political parties have been in power but our downward spiral
has continued.

Can our powerful stakeholders transcend their know-it-all approach and self-interest and
reach out to each other to develop a national consensus on Pakistan’s future?

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Economic experts say that if Pakistan leverages its young population, natural resources,
and location within a vibrant region, it can achieve growth rates of 7-8pc per annum,
reaching middle-income status by 2047. “This may be Pakistan’s moment in making
policy shifts,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank head in Pakistan, while making the
opening speech at the national dialogue.

The writer is a former SAPM on health, professor of health systems at Shifa Tameer-i-
Millat University, and WHO adviser on UHC.

zedefar@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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‘Ana Dammi Filasteeni’

Palestinians breed and bleed and advertise their misery — Ruth Wisse,
Harvard Professor

SUPPOSE an enemy country were, God forbid, to besiege Lahore, mercilessly bombard
its trapped civilians, kill hundreds of thousands of them including women and children,
expel the surviving population, and explain to the rest of the world that Lahoris are not
quite human and, accordingly, human pity and concern should not be wasted on them.

Suppose a superpower sheds crocodile tears for the devastated population while
increasing its military assistance to the enemy country for it to defend itself against the
survivors who might think of returning to their beloved city thereby posing a threat to
their killers who are “the most moral army in the history of mankind” as well as an
eternal ally of the superpower that is “a shining City on a Hill.”

Suppose elites far and near, battening on their respective populations, and beholden to
the superpower for security against any serious uprising of their exploited, were to
dutifully mimic the fake sympathy of their benefactor and maintain a ‘balanced view of
the situation’ regretting ‘unacceptable behaviour’ by Hamas as they plan to embrace
Israel as soon as feasible in the pursuit of peace and stability.

The torturer truly hates his victims because

they demonstrate his base inhumanity.

And what has been happening to the people of Gaza, their compatriots in the West Bank,
and Al Aqsa Mosque since 1996 when Netanyahu became prime minister of Israel? Since
1967 when the Israelis occupied Gaza and the West Bank? Since 1948 after World War II

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when Israel came into existence on the back of the Holocaust, Western guilt and the
forcible displacement of an ancient people from their homeland?

Since World War I when Britain and France divided up the Arab world in the Sykes-Picot
agreement and the Balfour Declaration promised a homeland to Jewish immigrants on
Palestinian land? Since more than a century of deceit, defeat, death, desecration,
destruction, displacement, deprivation, denial, disinformation, demonisation and
desolation? What has happened is ‘incremental genocide’ no less evil than the mercifully
imaginary fantasy depicted with regard to Lahore.

None of the above excuses the deliberate killing of unarmed civilians by either side. Nor
does it excuse a false equivalence between a criminal terrorist state and an innocent
traumatised people. Israel has again implemented the shocking commandment of the Old
Testament (Psalm 137:8-9) to “dash babies against the rocks.”

Those who perpetrated this outrage and those who provide ‘iron-clad’ support to such an
Israel are truly beneath contempt. Western racism is more blatant and obscene than ever.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has rendered itself without options and, accordingly, without a
foreign policy. Accordingly, it takes a ‘balanced view of the situation’ in Palestine, as it
does with occupied Kashmir, ie, blowing hot in public and blowing cool in private,
especially in deniable communications with protectors of its insecure ruling elites.

Apparently, we have to be sensible about such matters. The weighing of options is serious
business — especially for a country without any. After all, Alice in Wonderland was
written by a mathematician and mathematics is the pinnacle of logic and consistency.
Accordingly, the architects of our foreign and national policies have made a Wonderland
of Pakistan.

This is happening when climate burning and its innumerable lethal offshoots, the
prospect of nuclear war, the challenges of artificial intelligence, the start of a new Cold
War that could easily heat up, unprecedented inequalities, corporate capitalist morality
that sanctifies 0.01 per cent governance, war as peacebuilding, and inevitable movement

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towards downsizing the world population to manageable proportions through mega-

genocide are irreversibly sending the Doomsday Clock towards midnight.

Nevertheless, the world’s greatest, most influential and ‘indispensable’ country knowingly
signs the death warrant of human civilisation despite an overwhelming scientific
consensus on what to do and what not to do.

Humans were supposed to be “ashraf-ul-makhluqaat” (the noblest of creations). They

are being transformed by minuscule ruling elites serving a monster global hegemon into
‘ashar-ul-makhluqaat’ (the most evil of creations.) Gaza and Kashmir have become
small-scale models of a hellish world in the making for our children and grandchildren.

There are five great powers in the world today. The Western two — the US and Europe —
are currently write-offs despite or rather because of the history of their ‘advanced’
civilisation. The tragedy of Gaza is a product of such history.

The eastern three — China, Russia and, yes, India — have an opportunity, indeed a
survival imperative, to provide cooperative global ‘facilitation’, not ‘leadership’, for a safer
world, which, of course, would require them to peacefully resolve problems in their own
backyards that hamper their potential in this regard. Kashmir is one such problem. Many
Indians may hate the mention of Kashmir in this context but given the gravity of the
global situation they do themselves no favour by self-serving short-sightedness.

Similarly, Israel recently sought to remove a Palestinian song that won the Arab Idol
contest from digital platforms because it expressed the hopes, yearnings, and
determination of the Palestinian people to fight and sacrifice for their survival. This was
seen as a terrorist threat.

The torturer truly hates his victims because they demonstrate his base inhumanity — and
his vulnerability. Yasser Arafat was willing to accept an unacceptable peace with Yitzhak
Rabin (the 1993 Oslo Accords) but Netanyahu preferred Palestinian land to peace with
Palestine.

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The song is Ana Dammi Filasteeni, ie, ‘My blood is Palestinian’ (flowing through my
veins, on the ground, and under the rubble.) After 9/11, the French newspaper Le
Monde headlined ‘We are all Americans!’ So today we are all Palestinians, as indeed we
are all Kashmiris, and all who suffer oppression and the deliberate denial of any hope of
redress.

Accordingly, we should raise our voice in solidarity with our Palestinian brethren to
say: Alyom Nahnu Kulluna Dammuna Filasteeni, ie, ‘Today the blood of all of us is
Palestinian’.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions
in Iraq and Sudan.

ashrafjqazi@gmail.com

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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Reach the masses

RECENTLY, I attended the Urban Resource Centre’s Forum on the urban
poor and land use management in Karachi. NED University’s Prof Noman
Ahmed spoke on the subject. This was followed by observations from the
audience comprising mainly young and intelligent university and college
students fully engaged with public issues. The URC was set up in 1989 and is
the brainchild of architect and town planner Arif Hasan.

The URC is not the only institution educating the people on issues that have a bearing on
their lives. The Irtiqa Institute of Social Sciences, a think tank founded in 1993 by
progressive academics, is doing the same. Of late, social activist Kaleem Durrani has
revived it, attracting young and old alike to its fold.

Yet another group is the newly founded Concerned Citizens Alliance, which was set up in
response to the economic and political crisis that has gripped the country since 2021. Its
objective is to mobilise experts from various walks of life to discuss the country’s
multifarious problems and suggest solutions they hope the rulers will adopt. Azhar
Jameel, a co-founder, was a political activist but the Alliance has no political agenda.

There are a number of other similar groups working to educate people and create public
awareness. Such bodies are rendering a useful service in a society where the free
dissemination of information on sensitive and controversial issues is not encouraged. The
establishment is on the defensive if it is criticised and its knee-jerk reaction is to clamp
down on the free expression of opinion. The media has always been in chains in Pakistan
even in the days when the country supposedly was democratic. As for the academia and
the publishing industry, who hasn’t heard of teachers and writers meeting a sorry end
because of their liberal views? The banning of books is still a phenomenon not unheard of
in Pakistan.

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Think tanks can only have a limited audience.

Hence issues such as the history of the Freedom Movement, the emergence of
Bangladesh, the role of the army in Pakistan’s politics, the use of religion to promote
political interests and our ties with India are hardly open to an objective and non-
partisan discussion in academia. This gives an open field to the pulpit that has made
matters worse by spreading obscurantist views in the garb of faith. Any criticism of the
founder of the nation, the defence forces and faith-related matters makes one liable to
punishment. In such an environment, the organisations mentioned enable a sane and
sensible debate on otherwise ‘taboo’ subjects.

The problem is that these institutions can reach only a limited audience. Given Pakistan’s
low rate of education and high level of poverty, such think tanks will have to reach out to
the masses to make knowledge and information widely accessible. Hence events such as
the URC Forum will have to become a regular exercise that go beyond converting the
already converted. The need is to be inclusive and widen the reach of their activities by
going to the masses who are handicapped by illiteracy and poverty. People may be open
to intelligent discourse but lack the resources to come to their hosts. Their interest in
such matters is evident from their participation in Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, etc.

Is it not possible to mobilise the youth who attend the URC Forum and organise and train
them to form study circles in low-income localities? By holding interactive meetings with
their counterparts in various areas, privileged youth will also gain knowledge of the other
half. They would be paying back to society what they have gained over the years. In the
process, many of the uneducated will be learning something.

The URC can go further, Following the dictum of Paulo Freire, the author of Pedagogy of
the Oppressed, these study circles can provide the youth an opportunity to acquire
literacy skills as well. Freire used such occasions to impart literacy to adults with whom
he interacted. He observed that they were so keen to learn while discussing their

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problems that their progress was phenomenal. He described his pedagogical method as
“dialogical”.

Such an exercise would benefit the youth from the URC too. Learning is a two-way
process and both sides would benefit. While the underprivileged youth would gain access
to information, URC educators would win the goodwill of the huge majority we call the
masses.

www.zubeida-mustafa.com

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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Not worth it?

THE appointment of caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar from
Balochistan kindled hope for some measure of equity for the largest, rich-in-
natural-resources, but most cash-strapped province. It has also revived the
debate around the creation of smaller provinces, a realisation rooted in the
Baloch feeling abandoned, helpless and perpetually on the receiving end of
injustice.

The stark reality of Balochistan’s marginalisation is visible in its sparse population,

dismal literacy rate and an inadequate administrative infrastructure. As a result, this vast
land is marginally deve­loped. However, its situation does not make it insignificant; such
an interpretation reflects a subjective orientation in denial of established global
parameters. In the modern era, the size of a country or its population do not determine
its worth. A region’s value is defined by resources, human capital and productivity.

Singapore, a small country with 728 square kilometres of land and a population of 5.6
million, attained the status of a rich nation in 2011 and has since ranked among the
world’s high-income economies. In 1957, South Korean income levels were comparable to
newly independent Ghana and development economists believed that Ghana had brighter
prospects. Today, South Korea is among the top-performing economies in the world. We
consider population to be the primary criterion for wealth distribution, which is an
impediment in the pursuit of prosperity. We are unable to provide basic amenities,
education and skills in a country where a baby is born every seven seconds. There are
17,726 births and 4,351 deaths, along with 454 migrations per day, resulting in a net daily
change of 12,920. Pakistan is also expected to surpass Indonesia as the most populated
Muslim country in 2048.

Population-based resource distribution has stimulated population growth and raised

vested interests in voter pool and new constituencies. Considering this, the voices of most

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of Balochistan’s political leadership are audible in the recent census. But they were silent
on education which, despite the provincial constitutional mandate, is a federal issue.
Also, the province possesses mineral reserves estimated to be worth $1 trillion, yet it is
unable to contribute to the economic well-being of its populace.

States are guardians of the rights of citizens.

For instance, Balochistan’s known natural gas reserves have been more or less exhausted.
An erudite friend’s response to the lack of access to gas in major parts of the province was
shocking: “What was the benefit of providing gas to Balochistan’s scattered locations with
fewer consumers?” In his province, a few districts with the same number of consumers as
Balochistan’s entire population were deemed to benefit more from the gas. Such a
mindset showcases our inability to distinguish between fundamental rights and
commercial parameters. States are not corporations. They are guardians of the rights of
citizens.

Regardless of our interpretations, history teaches us that a region’s prosperity and

dominance are not subject to its size or population. Small countries have proved more
capable of experimenting with new policies and institutions, whereas larger ones have
come close to economic default. However, this progress depends on the space available to
establish their own objectives, priorities and decisions.

Whether or not a Baloch caretaker prime minister represents an equity measure is a

critical aspect to explore. Some may argue that Balochistan has more representation in
the existing national legislation landscape, and rightly so, but the province is far from
affluent. This reinforces the fact that allocating resources on the basis of population or
emphasising statistical representation are inappropriate solutions. What matters is a
leadership that originates from within and is truly representative of the province’s people.
A transition from centralised, top-down governance to a more decentralised, bottom-up
approach that ensures accountability is the need of the hour. Leaders will not only be

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accountable but also transparent in their actions, which guarantees empowerment for the
people.

The writer is an educationist.

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023

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