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INITIATION B-

Refinitiv ESG
Combined
Score

Company Note Autos │ Hong Kong │ December 30, 2022


Insert Insert

Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd
ADD (previously NOT RATED)
Consensus ratings*: Buy 36 Hold 2 Sell 0
Becoming an electric vehicle giant
Current price: HK$191.0 ■ BYD is a market leader in China’s NEV market, with 27% market share in
Target price: HK$333.7 3Q22, supported by huge capacity and in-house EV components production.
Previous target: HK$35.80
■ We believe the valuation gap between BYD and Tesla will narrow in the near
Up/downside: 74.7%
future, driven by faster EV shipment growth and stronger EV battery output.
CGS-CIMB / Consensus: 1.1%
■ Initiate coverage with Add, SOP-based TP of HK$333.70 (39x FY23F P/E).
Reuters: 1211.HK
Bloomberg: 1211 HK Market leader in China’s new electric vehicle (NEV) industry
Market cap: US$93,176m BYD is the largest NEV maker in China and globally, with an NEV market share by sales
HK$726,166m volume of c.17% in China and c.9% globally in 2021 (source: CPCA); these expanded to
Average daily turnover: US$221.8m c.27% and c.20% in 3Q22, with a total of 541k units of EV delivered, significantly higher
HK$1,735m than Tesla’s c.12.6% and GAC’s 3.2%, according to CPCA. We believe this was due to its
Current shares o/s: 2,854m huge production capacity, excellent supply chain and positive consumer response to
Free float: 68.9%
*Source: Bloomberg
recently-launch models Song DM, Qin Plus DM, Han and Dolphin.
Robust EV deliveries to continue in FY23F and FY24F
Key changes in this note We forecast BYD’s EV shipments to jump 204% to 1.84m units in FY22F, supported by the
N/A successful launch of new models including 1) Dynasty series’ Song DM-I SUV and Tang
SUV, and 2) Ocean series’ Destroyer sedan and Seal sedan. We expect BYD’s EV
Price Close Relative to HSI (RHS)
shipments to rise 60% to 2.94m units in FY23F and 23% to 3.62m units in FY24F,
390 135.0 supported by 1) more competitive Ocean series, targeting the mass market, and 2) steadily
340 123.0
290 111.0 growing Dynasty series e.g. Song and Han models, targeting the mid-high end market.
240
190
99.0
87.0
EV/battery manufacturing to deliver Rmb65.6bn EBITDA in FY24F
140
40
75.0 BYD adopts a vertically integrated business model to produce most core EV components
30
20 in-house utilising its own technology. The better supply chain control and lower EV battery
Vol m

10
costs give it a huge cost advantage over domestic peers. More importantly, BYD now
supplies blade battery, a new form of lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) battery, to Tesla’s
Dec-21 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22

Source: Bloomberg factory in Germany and plans to produce blade battery for other EV makers. This should
further boost its net profit from FY25F, in our view. We estimate BYD to deliver 111% EPS
Price performance 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (%) 4.9 -4.9 -27.2
CAGR in FY21-24F, with EBITDA rising from Rmb12.9bn in FY21 to Rbm65.6bn in FY24F.
Relative (%) -3.5 -19.9 -12.7 BYD valuation gap with Tesla to narrow
BYD currently trades at a valuation discount of 20% to Tesla, its key competitor in China,
Major shareholders % held
Mr. Wang Chuan Fu (Chairman) 17.6 on 10x EV/EBITDA in FY23F vs. Tesla’s 12x (Bloomberg consensus). We believe the
Mr. Lv Xiang Yang (non exeutive 13.5 valuation discount will narrow in the near future due to BYD’s 1) EV delivery growth, 2)
vice Chairman)
Berkshire Hathaway 6.3 improving profitability in EV sales, and 3) blade battery supply to other EV players.
Insert Initiate coverage with Add and TP of HK$333.70
We initiate coverage with an Add due to its rapidly-growing NEV and battery businesses.
Our SOP-based TP of HK$333.70 is equivalent to 39x FY23F P/E, which we find
undemanding as its current valuation does not fully reflect its growing market share in
China’s NEV market and EV battery industry. Re-rating catalysts: 1) sustainable market
share gain in China NEV market, 2) improved profitability in NEV business, and 3) stronger
EV battery output. Downside risks: keener competition in China NEV market hurting EV
business profitability and surge in raw material prices affecting its vehicle profit margin.

Financial Summary Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F


Revenue (Rmbm) 153,469 211,300 410,510 627,572 795,036
Operating EBITDA (Rmbm) 17,697 12,909 31,659 48,580 63,201
Net Profit (Rmbm) 4,234 3,045 12,385 22,509 30,453
Analyst Normalised EPS (Rmb) 2.09 1.25 4.59 7.73 10.46
Normalised EPS Growth 118% (40%) 266% 68% 35%
FD Normalised P/E (x) 81.7 138.8 36.4 22.1 16.3
DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.11 0.43 0.77 1.05
Dividend Yield 0.09% 0.06% 0.25% 0.45% 0.61%
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.51 36.53 15.31 10.02 7.51
P/FCFE (x) 30.0 11.6 266.5 147.1 25.8
Net Gearing 57.1% (16.0%) (12.6%) (9.2%) (15.6%)
P/BV (x) 8.19 5.12 5.08 4.44 3.54
Ray KWOK ROE 10.0% 4.7% 13.9% 21.5% 24.2%
T (852) 2532 1113 % Change In Normalised EPS Estimates
Normalised EPS/consensus EPS (x) 0.94 1.05 1.00
E ray.kwok@cgs-cimb.com
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the
THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

Table of contents
BYD – Becoming a grant in EVs ........................................................................................ 3
BYD’s key competencies ........................................................................................... 3
BYD’s NEV models and line-up ................................................................................. 5
Expanding EV portfolio to gain market share ............................................................ 9
Four BYD models ranked among the top 10 best-selling new energy sedans models
..................................................................................................................................... 11
BYD’s SUV models vs. Tesla Model Y and NIO’s and Li Auto’s SUV models ........ 11
Ocean series targeting the mass market ................................................................ 12
Speeding up overseas expansion strategy .............................................................. 12
EV battery – a market leader in China ..................................................................... 13
The next generation EV operating system .............................................................. 15
Intelligent cockpit development .............................................................................. 16
In-house semiconductor manufacturing .................................................................. 16
BYD’s EV delivery forecasts .................................................................................... 17
SWOT analysis ........................................................................................................ 19
Environmental, Social and Governance .......................................................................... 20
Financials ........................................................................................................................ 21
FY22F-24F net profit forecasts ................................................................................ 21
Profit margin trend ................................................................................................... 23
Balance sheet and cashflow .................................................................................... 24
Valuation and recommendation ....................................................................................... 25
Initiate coverage with Add ....................................................................................... 25
SOP valuation of HK$333.70 .................................................................................. 25
Share price catalysts.................................................................................................... 28
Risks ....................................................................................................................... 29
Company background ..................................................................................................... 30
BYD – China’s automobile and battery giant ........................................................... 30
Company milestones ............................................................................................... 31
Research and development .................................................................................... 32
Supply chain ............................................................................................................ 32
Production facilities ................................................................................................. 32
Capital exercise ....................................................................................................... 33
Shareholding structure ............................................................................................ 34
Key management ................................................................................................... 35
Appendix I - Strategic business cooperation ................................................................... 36
Appendix II – BYD Electronics ......................................................................................... 37
BY THE NUMBERS......................................................................................................... 39

2
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Becoming an electric vehicle grant


BYD – Becoming a grant in EVs

BYD’s key competencies


We believe BYD has two key competencies: 1) effective diversification strategy;
and 2) strong technology, which should sustain its leading position, in terms of
sales volume, in the global new energy vehicle (NEV) market. This has also been
helping the company stay competitive in China and global electric vehicle (EV)
markets.

1) Diversification
Multiple business areas generate complement each other. Currently, BYD
is engaged in three main business areas: automobile, handset component
and assembly, and rechargeable battery and photovoltaics. The company has
achieved strong results in all three areas, particularly in automobile and is
becoming a pioneer in the field of NEV. The company conducts its own
research and development (R&D) for core components of electric vehicle,
such as power batteries and power semiconductors. It is also strengthening
its supply chain management.
BYD’s new battery technology set to benefit the whole industry. BYD has
a battery business which consolidates the company’s supply chain and
market position. Its new “blade battery” successfully passed the most rigorous
tests on battery safety, and has attracted many vehicle brands. BYD is now
supplying the “blade battery” to Tesla’s (TSLA US, Not Rated, CP:
US$121.82) gigafactory in Berlin, Germany.
BYD semiconductor benefiting from the current chip shortages. BYD
also develops semiconductors, key components in NEVs, in-house through
its subsidiary BYD Semiconductor, which is primarily engaged in the research
and development, manufacturing and sales of a wide range of
semiconductors. This has helped the company weather the global chip
shortage better than its peers. The demand for integrated circuits (ICs) has
been exceeding the supplies over the past couple of years due to various
factors, including the Covid-19 pandemic, China-US trade war, logistical
disruptions, etc.
BYD’s diversification gives it price adventage over competitors. BYD has
a price edge over its competitors as it manufactures EV batteries and
semiconductors for its NEVs in-house. For instance, the "blade battery," an
lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell with a lower energy density than
conventional nickel-based battery cells, even achieves much safer and less
expensive, has made strides and got largely positive feedback from the
market, in terms of domestic automakers. Meanwhile, BYD’s EVs are more
affordable and it offers EVs in different price segments.

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

2) Technologies
Started as a battery maker. BYD initially was registered as a manufacturer
of rechargeable batteries in 1995, making three types of rechargeable
batteries: NiCd (nickel-cadmium), NiMH (nickel-metal-hydride), and Li-ion
(lithium-iron-phosphate). BYD was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange
in 2002. Following its listing, it expanded its business and entered the auto
industry in 2003 by acquiring Xi’an Tsinchuan Auto, and later renamed it as
BYD Auto. The company also bought a mold factory and set up an R&D team
for cars in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively.
It released F3 compact car, its first car, in 2005 and ramped up production
volume from 20,000 in 2005 to half a million in 2010. Three years after
launching the F3, the company successfully commercialised the BYD F3DM,
the world’s first mass-produced plug-in hybrid car.
Leveraging its battery technology. BYD’s first battery electric vehicle
(BEV), the e6, was launched in 2010, two years after the F3DM. The car was
initially intended for the taxi industry but a year later was made available to
consumers. With supportive government policies for NEVs, BYD received
subsidies to further expand its production of electric vehicles (EVs).
In July 2020, it launched BYD Han, a large electric sedan, which combined all
of BYD’s technologies and competed with Tesla Model 3. It received positive
feedback from users and the press, and sold 100,000 units in one year after
launch.
Latest developments in advanced chips, cockpit systems and ADAS.
BYD’s completed equipment installation at its US$140m chip plant in China’s
Changsha in early-Sep 2022, and it officially started production of automotive
chips in early-Oct. The company expects the plant to manufacture 500,000
chips annually, based on an 8-inch wafer. Meanwhile, BYD is planning to roll
out its intelligent system, DiLink ‘Intelligent Connection System’ in 4Q22,
which would enable owners to install smartphone-like apps in the infotainment
unit. Also, BYD is currently adopting NVIDIA Hyperion in its new models for
automated driving and parking.
BYD is growing rapidly in China while also expanding its market share
in overseas markets. Currently, BYD's pure-electric buses and taxis are
exported to more than 70 countries and regions. Over the last year, BYD has
started exporting NEVs to countries such as Brazil, Australia, Singapore and
Norway.
In 9M22, BYD exported around 8k new energy vehicles, up 460% yoy.
Furthermore, BYD plans to further explore markets in the Middle East, Africa,
Europe, and the Asia Pacific region in 2023. In Aug 2022, BYD invested in a
new energy passenger car manufacturing plant in Thailand, building electric
vehicles for the local market and for exports to Southeast Asian countries.
The factory will produce around 150k vehicles per annum.

4
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

BYD’s NEV models and line-up


BYD’s NEV models and line-up. BYD's passenger car business consists of the
Dynasty series, Ocean series and the Denza brand, all of which are wholly owned
and operated by BYD, except Denza, which is a joint venture between BYD and
Mercedes-Benz (Fig 1).

EV models – Dynasty Series


The dynasty series includes BYD’s second generation models launched over the
past decade, which it named after China's dynasties. The dynasty series targets
the mid- to high-end users with an average retail price of Rmb230k (US$33k) per
vehicle. The company added some features of a dragon to the designs of the
dynasty series to attract local users.
Currently, there are five main themes in Dynasty series:
1) the Qin (秦) – compact sedan: Qin, Qin Plus and Qin Pro

2) the Tang (唐) – mid-size crossover Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV): Tang

3) the Song (宋) – compact crossover SUV: Song Pro, Song Plus and Song
Max
4) the Yuan (元), or Atto 3 (outside China) – subcompact crossover SUV:
Yuan Plus and Yuan Pro
5) the Han (汉) – mid-size sedan: Han
The model appearance in the same theme (such as Qin, Qin Pro, and Qin
Plus) may vary slightly, and each individual model may have a variety of trim
levels (e.g. the Yuan Plus is offered in five different versions).

EV models – Ocean Series


For the ocean series, the futuristic and aesthetic line-up with its own e-platform
3.0, includes Dolphin, Seal, Destroyer 05 and newly launched Frigate. BYD
Dolphin (海豚) was introduced in Aug 2021, and BYD Seal (海豹) was made
available for preorder in May 2022.
BYD Destroyer 05 (驱逐舰 05) was launched in Mar 2022 and BYD Frigate 07 (护
卫舰 07) will be available for order in the near future. Furthermore, Sea Lion and
Sea gull are expected to join the ocean inspired family soon.
Currently, the ocean series consists of four models:
1) the BYD Dolphin ( 海 豚 ), or Atto 2 (outside China) – subcompact
hatchback
2) the BYD Seal (海豹), or Atto 4 (outside China) – compact executive,
fastback sedan
3) BYD Destroyer 05 (驱逐舰 05) – plug-in hybrid (PHEV) compact sedan

4) BYD Frigate 07 (护卫舰 07) – medium-sized SUV

The ocean series is positioned below the dynasty models with a price range
around Rmb200k (US$28.5k) to target the mass-middle segment. The ocean
series is designed to align with the modern design trend, by featuring more fluidic
and aerodynamic designs.

EV models – BYD E Series

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

The BYD e series was launched in 2019 as a series of cars developed utilising
BYD's electric vehicle e-platform. The e2 hatchback, the e3 compact sedan, and
the e9 mid-size sedan are the three current vehicles in the e-series line-up. This
series is relatively less popular compared with BYD's other car offerings.

EV models – Denza
Denza, a joint venture with Daimler Group which was established in Feb 2011,
targets the luxury segment. The brand has launched SUV MPV sedans and sports
cars to appeal to the luxury segment. DENZA D9 was officially launched as the
first model under the new “DENZA” brand with prices ranging from Rmb335k to
Rmb460k (US$48k to US$66k).

Difference between BEV, Dm, DM-I and DM-P hybrid engines


BYD stated in 2021 annual report that it will insists on developing plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV or EV) at the same time.
In BYD's NEV portfolio, the vehicles have EV, DM, DM-I and DM-P versions,
depending on the power source. EV represents a pure battery model, while DM,
DM-I and DM-P models are plug-in hybrid models. DM-I focuses more on fuel
economy and DM-P more on performance.
 DM’s power performance is the highest among the three hybrids. It has
an extra BSG motor and a set of 6-speed wet dual-clutch transmission.
 DM-I focuses on fuel economy; there is only one front-drive motor and the
power is the weakest among the three hybrids.
 DM-P is between DM and DM-I in terms of power, and it has one more
high-power rear than the DM-I system motor.

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Figure 1: BYD NEV portfolio as at 29 Dec 2022

Wheelbase Acceleration time Peak Power Maximum Torque Autonomous driving


Model Delivery Date Segment Driving range (km) MSRP starting from (RMB) Cumulative shipments
(mm) (0 to 100km/h) (s) (kW) (NM) package
QIN Plus DM-p/i
2016

Mar-16 Mid size Sedan(BEV) 2,718 55/120 7.3/7.9 81 135 Dipilot 111,800 - 151,800 517,089

TANG
2018

Jul-18 Mid-large SUV (BEV) 2,820 505/565 4.4/8.9 168/180/380 350/700 Dipilot 279,800 - 339800 184,871

TANG DM-p/i
2018

Jul-18 Mid-large SUV (PHEV) 2,820 112/252 4.3 (0-50) 102 231 Dipilot 205,800-279,800 Included in TANG

YUAN
2018

Jun-18 Mid Size SUV (BEV/PHEV) 2,720 430/510 7.3 150 310 Dipilot 137,800-165,800 240,934

HAN
2020

Jul-20 Mid size Sedan (BEV) 2,920 550/550/605 3.9/7.9 163/363 350 Dipilot 214,800 - 234,800 361,637

HAN DM-p/i
2020

Jul-20 Mid size Sedan (PHEV) 2,920 121/242 7.9 102 231 Dipilot 215,800-289,800 Included in Han

SONG PLUS EV
2020

Sep-20 Mid large SUV (BEV) 2,765 505 4.4(0-50) 135 280 Dipilot 180,800-197,800 616,923

SONG PLUS DM-p/i


2020

Sep-20 Mid large SUV (PHEV) 2,765 51/100/110 5.9/7.9/8.5 132/145 316/325 Dipilot 145,800-172,800 Included in Song

Dolphin
2021

Aug-21 Subcompact Car (BEV) 2,700 301/405/401 3.9/3 (0-50) 70/130 180/290 Dipilot 102,800-130,800 208,941

Destroyer 05
2022

Mar-22 Sedan (BEV) 2,718 55/120 7.3/7.9 132/145 316/325 Dipilot 119,800-155,800 9,101

Seal
2022

Late 2022 or Early


Sedan-Coupe (BEV) 2,920 550/650/700 3.8/5.9/7.5 150/230 310/360 Dipilot 209,800-286,800 7,473
2023

Frigrate 07
2022

/ Mid Large SUV (PHEV) 2,820 100/200 4.7 145/150 / Dipilot 220,000-280,000 10,142

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Figure 2: BYD models distribute in different price segments as at 29 Dec 2022

Price Level SUV Sedan


Each bar represent 50,000 units of delivery Dynasty Series Ocean Series
Model Tang
Delivery Date Jul-18
Premium

Rmb 250,001 to Rmb 300,000 Cumulative deliveries

184,781

Model Frigrate 07 Han Seal


Delivery Date Dec-22 Jul-20 Jul-22
Mid- High end

Rmb 200,001 to Rmb 250,000 Cumulative deliveries


Coming Soon 402,253 34,096

Model Song
Delivery Date Sep-20

Rmb 150,001 to Rmb 200,000


Cumulative deliveries 616,923
Mass-Mid

Model Yuan Qin Dolphin Destroyer 05


Delivery Date Jun-18 Mar-16 Aug-21 Mar-22

Rmb 100,000 to Rmb 150,000


Cumulative deliveries 233,194 510,789 208,941 56,055

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

8
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Expanding EV portfolio to gain market share


BYD plans to launch two sub-brands in 2023. A premium sub-brand called
YangWang (Chinese name: 仰望), which BYD plans to use to target the luxury
user group. The new premium brand models will be equipped with BYD's
automotive technology and represent BYD's strongest capabilities in electrification
and intelligence.
We believe BYD’s first premium model could be a cross country vehicle,
positioning in the same segment as Mercedes-Benz G. We estimate BYD to price
at Rmb800k to Rmb1,500k in 2Q23.
BYD also announced to launch a highly specialised and personalised new brand
in 2023 to meet the increasing demand for personalisation in vehicles .
The new brands are going to expand its EV portfolio from mid- to high-end to
premium and ultra-luxury price segments and further enhance its brand name, in
our view.
BYD topped the market share of passenger car sales in Oct this year.
According to figures provided by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA),
retail sales of BYD passenger cars in China in Oct 2022 totalled 206k units,
accounting for 11.2% of all passenger car sales in the nation (Fig 3).
Five companies —BYD, FAW-Volkswagen (Unlisted), Geely Auto (175 HK, Not
Rated), Changan Automobile (Unlisted), and SAIC-Volkswagen (Unlisted) — sold
more than 100k vehicles combined in Oct 2022, with BYD dominating the list for
the fourth consecutive month in 2022 (Fig 4).

Figure 3: Top 10 auto brands in China by market share in Oct Figure 4: Top 10 auto brands in China by sales volume in Oct
2022 2022

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, CPCA SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, CPCA

Most BYD models achieved new unit sales highs in Nov this year. BYD’s NEV
sales volume reached a record 230k units in Nov 2022, accounting for 29% of
total NEV sales in China.
In Nov 2022, BYD's best-selling models was Dynasty series’ Song models. The
Song series sold 64k units at home market in Nov, up from 57k units in Nov and
+156% yoy from 25k units in Nov 2021(Fig 5).
The Han series, the brand's flagship sedan, sold 32k units in Nov 2022, up from
31k units in Oct and 148% yoy from 13k units a year earlier (Fig 7).
BYD's bestselling SUV, the Tang series, sold 20k units in Nov 2022, up 7% mom
and 146% yoy. The Tang series has sold more than 400k pieces overall so far
(Fig 8).
BYD Yuan series sold 29k units in Nov 2022, up 17% mom and 360% yoy.
According to BYD, the sales include 7k units exported to foreign markets (Fig 9).

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Other models from the Ocean series including BYD Seal, BYD Dolphin, and BYD
Destroyer 05 all recorded new unit sales highs in Nov 2022, with 11k, 25k, and 9k
units sold respectively (Fig 10).

Figure 5: BYD Song series monthly sales (2021 to 2022) Figure 6: BYD Qin series monthly sales (2021 to 2022)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 7: BYD Han series monthly sales (2021 to 2022) Figure 8: BYD Tang series monthly sales (2021 to 2022)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 9: BYD Yuan series monthly sales (2021 to 2022) Figure 10: BYD Seal/Dolphin/Destroyer 05 monthly sales (2021 to
2022)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Four BYD models ranked among the top 10 best-selling new


energy sedans models
BYD’s Han, Qin, Dolphin and Seal model ranked No.2 to No.5 best-selling
new energy sedans models in China in Nov 2022. According to CPCA, BYD’s
Han, Qin, Dolphin, and Seal, ranked the second to the fourth, with 31.6k, 28.3k,
26.0k, 15.4k units sold in Nov 2022, just fell behind SAIC-GM-Wuling’s
Hongguang Mini EV (Fig 11).

Figure 11: Besting-selling new energy sedans in China in Nov 2022

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH,CPCA

BYD’s SUV models vs. Tesla Model Y and NIO’s and Li Auto’s
SUV models
BYD sold 60.0k, 24.1k and 29.4k units of Tang, Song and Yuan models,
respectively, in Nov 2022. With total electric SUV sales of 113.6k in Nov 2022, it
made BYD the largest SUV supplier in China in the month. Tesla delivered 52.4k
units of Model Y. NIO and Li Auto delivered 8k and 15k SUVs, respectively, in Nov
2022 (Fig 12).

Figure 12: Sales volume of selected electric SUV models in China in Nov 2022

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH,COMPANY REPORTS

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Ocean series targeting the mass market


Ocean series targeting the mass market. According to CPCA, the penetration
rate for BYD’s Ocean marque in the mass EV market was only 20-25% in 9M22,
i.e. 1m units, far from the total EVs sold in the mass market of 7m in that period.
Given the portion of the untapped mass EV market is still large, we believe that
BYD has an edge over the mass EV market since BYD’s Oceans series mainly
targets both mass market and young generation, by offering a lower retail price of
Rmb100k-200k. Combined with its futuristic and stylish design, models from the
Ocean series had high new unit sales of 47k in Nov 2022 (Fig 10).
BYD plans to launch low-end EV models in 2023: Seagull, with selling prices
as low as Rmb60k/US$8.6k for stand-range (sodium-ion) variant and
Rmb100k/US$14k for the long-range (lithium-ion) variant. We believe that the new
entry-level EV will challenge the low-end models like the Leapmotor T03, Chery
Wujie Pro and Changan E-Star.
We observe that unit shipments are rising for all the models in Ocean Series. In
our view, this could imply that BYD is capturing greater market share in the EV
market.

Speeding up overseas expansion strategy


BYD is speeding up its overseas expansion strategy. BYD’s international
operations have been accelerating in recent years, with the expansion of its sales
network and stronger promotions overseas. The company sold c.17k EV units
across multiple regions, including Europe, Latin America, Southeast Asia, the
Middle East, Africa and Oceania, in 3Q22.
The Yuan PLUS model, named ATTO 3, BYD's first global passenger BEV aimed
at overseas markets, has already been introduced to countries that include
Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Cambodia, and Costa Rica, as well as Europe,
in 2021. The company continues to unveil the Han and Tang models to tap more
overseas markets.
Entering Europe. In Sep 2022, Norway became the first country in Europe for
BYD’s foray into the continent. The company has since launched three BEVs
models, namely the Atto 3, Han and Tang, to the European market, for delivery to
Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and
Germany. BYD has shipped over 1,000 "Tang EVs" within two months of its entry
into Norway.
New plant for Southeast Asia market. In Oct 2022, BYD announced the debut
of Atto 3 in a launch event co-hosted with its Thai partner Rêver Automotive. BYD
plans to build its first car plant in Southeast Asia in Thailand, where it expects to
start production in 2024F, with an annual design capacity of c.150k units p.a.
Delivering first EV in India. Dec 2022 saw the first Atto 3 roll off the production
line at BYD’s India plant, produced through semi knocked down (SKD) assembly.
BYD announced that it expects the first 500 units of the Atto 3 to be delivered to
Indian consumers starting in Jan 2023, and targets to sell 15k units of the model
in India in 2023F.
Building two plants for European market. To meet rising demand for BYD’s
new energy passenger vehicles in Europe, the company plans to build two
passenger car plants in Europe. It also plans to buy its own ships to export the
cars. BYD said its European business units are currently selling solar energy,
energy storage and NEV, with an operational footprint of over 20 countries across
the continent.

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EV battery – a market leader in China


BYD designs and produces EV batteries in-house for its EV models. Unlike
its key competitors, who are highly dependent on third-party battery makers to
power their EVs, BYD manufactures most of its core EV components in-house,
including battery.
No.2 EV battery maker. In 2021, BYD was the second-largest EV battery maker
in terms of capacity, account for approximately 22% of the world’s EV battery
production (source: China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance, CABIA, Fig 13
and 14), after Contemporary Amperex Technology’s 47% share (CATL, 300750
CH, Not Rated), another major EV battery manufacturer in China.
Ongoing investments in battery capacity. BYD has cooperated with Yichun city
government and agreed to invest c. Rmb28.5bn (US$4.2bn) for an EV power
battery base and a mining project.
BYD plans to build a new EV battery base with a 30GWh annual capacity and a
mining project with 100k tonnes p.a. of lithium carbonate and ceramic clary,
including lithium, in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, China.

Figure 13: BYD’s battery capacity (accumulated Jan-Aug 2022) Figure 14: BYD’s market share in global EV battery market (Aug
2022)
Company Installed Capacity (GWh)
CATL 76.90
BYD 35.96
CALB 11.38
Gotion High-Tech 7.98
Sunwoda 4.04
Svolt Energy 3.86
Eve Energy 3.68
LG Energy Solution 3.58
Farasis Energy 3.17
Ruipu Energy 2.49
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, CABIA SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, CABIA

LFP battery is commonly used for EV in China. LFP is a type of lithium-ion battery
using lithium iron phosphate as the cathode material, and a graphitic carbon electrode
with a metallic backing as the anode. LFP battery is popular as its cost is low and safer
than lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxides (NMC) battery, also it has longer lifecycle
and lower toxicity, but its low-temperature performance and low energy density are the
drawbacks.
Mr. Wang Chuanfu (BYD Chairman) said LFP batteries are the right choice for China
because it can help avoid resource supply constraints, as China has sufficient lithium
resources but a severe shortage of cobalt and nickel (the key cathode materials for NMC
battery).

BYD launched the “Blade Battery” for its EVs in 2020. Leveraging on its LFP
EV battery technology, BYD unveiled its high-performance Blade Battery (刀片电
池) in 2020, a new form of lithium battery that is much safer and far less likely to
catch fire, according to the company, in comparison to other types of EV batteries
now on the market. Its patented technology offers safety advantages in battery
safety while redefines the safety standards for the battery industry, in our view.
EV battery technological breakthrough – Blade Battery. The Blade Battery
packs Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistry cells into a blade-like form factor.
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Under the nail penetration test, the battery does not smoke or burn when surface
temperature reaches 30-60 degrees Celsius. It only burns upon reaching 500
degrees Celsius.
BYD invented the battery thermal management system (BMS) to ensure that the
temperature of the battery remains at optimum levels in all weather conditions.
BYD asserts that the Blade Battery is the only battery in the industry that can
successfully complete the stringent nail penetration test, which is generally
regarded as the most rigorous method of testing battery safety.
In contrast to the typical nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) mix, BYD's Blade Battery
technology is an electric car battery that uses lithium-ion phosphate (LFP)
chemistry. The BYD Blade Battery stacks all the cells together rather than having
several modules, saving over 50% space in comparison to comparable battery
blocks (Fig 15).
The Blade battery offers four benefits:
1) Low heat generation
2) Slow heat release
3) High starting temperature for exothermic reactions
4) Capability to prevent oxygen escape during a breakdown

Figure 15: BYD Blade Battery technology diagram

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, ELECTRIC. CO

The second-generation Blade battery is in development progress. With a


significant improvement over the current blade battery with a higher energy
density of 180wh/kg to 150Wh/kg, the second generation battery could reduce
power consumption by 20% and increase the driving distance by 3% along with
the fifth generation chips, according to the company.
BYD started to supply EV batteries to Tesla in Sep 22. In 2020, BYD launched
the BYD Han (比亚迪汉), a mid-size sedan, and the company's first EV to be fitted
with the innovative Blade Battery technology. The BYD Han is currently one of
BYD's best-selling cars.
To produce blade battery for other EV makers by 2024. BYD usually produces
EV batteries for its own models but, since Sep 2022, BYD began supplying blade
batteries to Tesla's gigafactory in Berlin, Germany. More importantly, BYD
mentioned that it plans to mass produce blade batteries for other EV makers in
2024 and beyond. This should help reduce overall production cost and unlock the
market value of the power battery business, in our view.

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Sodium ion battery in mass production. Other than LFP EV battery, BYD is
going to be the first automotive manufacturer to use sodium ion battery into BEVs.
Sodium ion battery is 30% cheaper in cost than lithium ion. Also, sodium ions are
safer as they are non-flammable and less responsive to temperature changes.
Moreover, Sodium ion batteries support fast charging and have a longer life than
lithium-ion batteries. However, they have lower energy density than lithium-ion
batteries. To enhance their competitiveness in the sub-Rmb100k EV market, BYD
is going to feature sodium ion batteries in some versions of its low-price EVs, such
as Seagull, Dolphin and Qin models to reduce cost and have a more attractive
retail price to compete in the market. The Qin and Dolphin are both low-end pure
electric vehicle models priced at Rmb100k to Rmb150k (US$14k to 21k), and the
Seagull is scheduled to launch next year, a small A0-class sedan, will be priced
at Rmb80k-Rmb100k.

The next generation EV operating system


E-platform 3.0: the next generation EV operating system. E-platform 3.0,
designed and developed by BYD, optimises the performance of the next
generation high performance smart electric vehicles. The e-platform 3.0 features
key modules that are tinier, light-weighted, more powerful; they help to solve
problems including shrinking winter range of electric vehicles and long charging
time with short travelling distance.
EVs built with this platform can accelerate from 0-100 km/h in as fast as 2.9
seconds and have a combined range of up to 1,000km. Moreover, it also comes
with an innovative heat pump technology and an upgraded electric drive system
with 8-in-1 modules which can deliver an integrated efficiency of approximately
90%. The winter range is improved by at least 10% and the electric consumption
of models based on it is 10% lower than that of comparable models. Lastly, the
platform now enables 800V charging technology, and an electric vehicle can travel
150km after 5 minutes of charging.
In Aug 2021, Dolphin was the first model equipped with “e-Platform 3.0”.

Figure 16: BYD E-platform 3.0 Figure 17: BYD E-platform 3.0 Figure 18: BYD E-platform 3.0
- Integrated battery into the chassis - Cabin heating by battery (heat pump - Intelligent driving assistance system
(light-weighted) technology)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, BYD SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, BYD SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, BYD

Figure 19: BYD E-platform 3.0

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, BYD

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Intelligent cockpit development


Industry-leading auto intelligent system – DiLink. BYD unveiled its latest
DiLink 4.0 (5G) intelligent network connection technology at the Chengdu Auto
Show, claiming it will provide consumers access to a "smarter, more effective, and
more humanistic" intelligent cockpit. The new system's 5G technology, new user
interface, and other product features, according to the company’s information.
In practice, DiLink 4.0 (5G) can download dozens of megabytes worth of APP. Its
highest download speed is reportedly around 1Gbps, according to the company.
Comparisons with intelligent cockpits of XPeng P7 and NIO ES8. In audio-
visual experience, DiLink 4.0 (5G) allows consumers to drag and drop the
progress for songs so that there is no lag or delay in viewing, while XPeng P7 and
NIO ES8 both are worse than DiLink for loading speed. For audio quality, the
transparency and layering of the sound are clearly demonstrated by BYD's
Dynaudio speakers, emphasising the qualities of Dynaudio's restoration of
authentic sounds. XPeng P7 also uses Dynaudio speakers, but the bass stage
exhibits a tiny resonance that degrades the detailed performance.

Figure 20: BYD DiLink Control Manual Figure 21: BYD DiLink Audio Setting Figure 22: BYD DiLink K-karaoke room

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

In-house semiconductor manufacturing


BYD produces most of its own semiconductors for its EVs. BYD
Semiconductor, the chip unit of the namesake automaker, has a huge contribution
in the automotive field due to its broad engagement in the system of NEV.
The company manufactures and sells products, such as IGBT, SiC, MOSFET,
IPM, MCU, CMOS image sensors, electromagnetic and pressure sensors, LED
light sources, automotive LED displays, and other specification-level solutions.
This wide range of products are used in the core fields of NEV, including motor
driver control system, thermal management system, power management system,
image system, lighting system and so on. This largely promotes the development
of its automotive business, acting as a strong foundation for growth.
Termination of BYD Semiconductor spin-off. BYD stated in June 2021 that the
Shenzhen Stock Exchange had approved the company’s application to spin off its
semiconductor division (BYD Semiconductor), which is involved in semiconductor
research and development, manufacture, and sales. However, BYD
Semiconductor’s IPO plan was halted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in Apr
2022; its first attempt was halted in Aug 2021. The reason for the recent halt was
the expiration of financial documents during the application process. In Nov 2022,
the company agreed to terminate the spin-off plan and withdraw the listing
application.
Originally, BYD had decided to spin off its semiconductor business to increase
BYD Semiconductor’s capital and seize the opportunity of the rise of China's
semiconductor industry. When the conditions are right, the company could revisit
its spin-off and listing plans, in our view. The termination of the listing plan will not
have an adverse impact on BYD’s current production and investment projects, in
our view.
Actually, BYD plans to further expand its large scale investment in wafer capacity
construction to cater to the strong downstream demand due to the rapid growth of
the NEV industry.

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BYD’s EV delivery forecasts


BYD’s BEV and Plug-in Hybrid EV to maintain exponential growth this year.
BYD EV deliveries achieved impressive growth in FY21, rising to 603k units from
189k units in FY20, or up 218% yoy. Among the models, BEV accounted for the
largest percentage sold at 62%, followed by its Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) making
up most of the balance. In 4Q22F, we forecast continued growth for BYD’s EV
deliveries, with a 24% qoq increase to 324k units of BEV, and 18% qoq rise to
330k units of PHEV, mainly due to seasonality, product line expansion, and new
model launches in China. For the full year, we expect BYD’s total EV deliveries to
rise to 1.84m units in FY22F, up 204% yoy (144% yoy delivery growth of BEV and
177% yoy delivery growth of PHEV, Fig 24).
Strong sales sustainable till FY24F. Thanks to favourable government policies
and BYD’s diversified EV portfolio strategy, it has continuously recorded high
sales since 3Q21. We anticipate this momentum continuing through to FY24F,
driven by positive government policy support and the significant electrification
trend in the automotive industry that will result in a much more mature and well-
grounded demand and supply dynamic to support the growth of the China’s NEV
industry, and BYD as well, in our view. We expect BYD’s EV shipments to rise by
60% yoy to 2.94m units in FY23F and by 23% yoy to 3.62m units in FY24F,
supported by 1) more competitive Ocean series e.g. Seal and Seagull models,
and 2) steadily growing Dynasty series e.g. Song and Qin models (Fig 26).

Figure 23: BYD’s EV deliveries, by EV-type (4Q18 to 3Q22), Figure 24: BYD’s EV deliveries, by EV-type (FY19 to FY22F),
quarterly annually estimates by CGS-CIMB research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 25: BYD’s EV deliveries (1Q20 to 4Q22F), quarterly Figure 26: BYD’s EV deliveries (FY18 to FY24F), annually
estimates by CGS-CIMB research estimates by CGS-CIMB research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMAATES, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

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Sustainable market share gain in China NEV market. We expect BYD’s EV


market share will continue to rise in 2023F and 2024F on the back of faster EV
shipment growth – we project it would deliver 1.84m/2.94m/3.62m units of EV in
2022F/2023F/2024F (204%/60%/23% yoy growth) vs. China NEV market’s
105%/38%/25%. We expect BYD’s market of the China NEV market to reach 31%
in in 2024F, significantly higher than its key rivals in China such as NIO at 2.7%,
Li Auto at 2.8% and XPeng at 2.4% (Fig 29).

Figure 27: BYD and Tesla’s market share (1Q20 to 4Q22F), Figure 28: NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Alon and Zeekr NEV market
quarterly estimates by CGS-CIMB research share (1Q20 to 4Q22F), quarterly estimates by CGS-CIMB
research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 29: BYD, NIO, XPeng and Li Auto’s market share in China’s NEV market (2020
to 2024F), annual estimates by CGS-CIMB research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

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SWOT analysis
Figure 30: SWOT

Strengths Opportunities

BYD was no.1 in China's premium NEV segment in


BYD should benefit from rising EV penetration rates in
terms of volume, in 2021, thanks to advanced battery-
China and gain market share as it continually rolls out
service technologies and effective diversification in
new models.
different products and price segments.

BYD has expanded its product range from sedan-type


BYD has successfully launched different series
EVs to SUV-type EVs. In Aug 2022, BYD launched Seal,
including, Dynasty, Ocean and upcoming YangWang, to
a new premium sedan and flagship SUV, Frigate 07, in
capture different segments of China's EV market.
its Ocean series.

BYD will continue to expand its international presence to


BYD produces most of the EV components, such as
capture the rising global EV demand. Also, a new
chips and batteries in its own factory, making it largely
production plant is under construction in Thailand to
immune to supply chain disruptions.
capture the Southeast Asian market.

Weaknesses Threats

BYD faces increasing competition in China's EV market


Compared to its major competitors, BYD does not have from new players, including domestic traditional fuel
its own advanced driver assistance system. automakers and EV makers as well as foreign
automakers.

BYD has multiple businesses other than automotive, If China's government changes subsidies, economic
which could put BYD at a disadvantage in a highly incentives and other supportive polices for NEVs, it
specialised market. could adversely affect BYD’s EV sales.

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

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Environmental, Social and Governance


Refinitiv ESG Scores

B- A+ B- B+ C- B-
ESG Score ESG Controversies ESG Combined ESG Environment ESG Social Pillar ESG Government
ESG in a nutshell Score Score Pillar Score Score Pillar Score

In 2021, BYD’s ESG initiatives included conducting internal environmental audits and strengthening its control of sudden
environmental pollution accidents. It also actively participated in community services and taking responsibility for
sustainable development.
According to the latest Refinitiv Eikon’s rating, BYD achieved A+ (the highest rating) in controversies score in 2020,
implying zero exposure to ESG controversies and negative acts in global media.
In our view, BYD is not involved in any environmentally-detrimental industry practices and takes the effort to minimise the
environmental impact of its operations.

Environmental Implications
In 2021, BYD reinforces its actions and management for In 2021, BYD launched the zero-carbon headquarters
carbon emission, and accelerates the low-carbon transition project and it is the very first zero-carbon headquarters
of the transportation industry and the manufacturing industry project of automobile enterprises expected to complete by
with green technologies, products and solutions. the end of 2022. BYD has also terminated all production of
non-new energy vehicles.
BYD has also sold over 1.5 million new energy vehicles and
cut down over 8.92 million tons of CO2 emission which
equals to the effect of planting 750m trees.
Total greenhouse gas emission increase to 5.2m tons but
the greenhouse gas emission intensity drop 8% yoy to
0.24147 tons/Rmb10000.
For wastewater discharge, the Group adopts the thin-film
process instead of the traditional phosphating process at
coating pretreatment stage to achieve zero discharge of
heavy metal nickel, successfully reducing nickel discharge
by 0.54 tons throughout the year.

Social Implications
BYD is actively involved in various charity projects including In 2021, BYD Charity Foundation donated a total of
poverty alleviation, disaster relief and student education Rmb48m fundings and supplies. For instance, BYD aided
support etc. over Rmb12m worth of epidemic prevention and control
supplies to support the epidemic control in Shenzhen,
donated Rmb20m donated fundings to Zhengzhou flood
accident, also support for the next generation education
development.

Governance Implications
BYD’s Board of Directors takes full responsibility for ESG In 2021 CSR annual review, BYD CSR committee has
strategies and is proactively overseeing the setting of the decided to reestablish so as to improve company’s ability
Group's corporate social responsibility strategic goals and and level of fulfilling social responsibility. After the
implementation plan. They also identifying crucial topics reorganization, the division of the corporate social
related to corporate governance and social responsibility responsibility and duties of BYD were clearer, and the
with their stakeholders. corporate social responsibility was carried out smoothly and
effectively.

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, REFINITIV

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Financials
FY22F-24F net profit forecasts
Vehicle sales to account for 86% of BYD’s total revenue in FY24F. In FY21,
BYD recorded automobile sales of Rmb109bn, accounting for 52% of its total
revenue. We expect this proportion to grow to 86% with automobile sales of
Rmb682bn in FY24F, mainly due to a growing NEV market in China, and BYD’s
ongoing investments in the automobile field, such as new model launches,
production expansion, and sustainable supply chain management. We, therefore,
estimate that automobile sales will increase by 192%/65%/29% yoy in
FY22F/23F/24F (Fig 33).
BYD’s net profit to rise on greater economies of scale. With BYD’s recent
manufacturing plant expansion and strong delivery momentum, We believe BYD
to achieve greater economies of scale by increasing production and lowering
manufacturing costs. These are likely to result in improvements in profitability. We
estimate BYD’s net profit rising by 307%/82%/35% yoy in FY22F/23F/24F, a 3-
year CAGR of 104% to reach Rmb30.5bn in FY24F (Fig 35 & 36).

Figure 31: Revenue breakdown (FY21) Figure 32: Revenue breakdown (FY24F), estimates by CGS-CIMB
research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 33: Revenue breakdown by product segment (FY19 to FY24F)


FYE Dec (Rmb million) Dec-19A Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
No. EV deliveries (no. of units) 207,971 194,119 603,783 1,837,999 2,940,798 3,617,182
- yoy change (%) n.a. -7% 211% 204% 60% 23%
EV ASP (Rmb 000'/ per EV) n.a. n.a. 182 175 180 189
- yoy change (%) n.a. n.a. -4% 3% 5%

Revenue by products segment


- Vehicle sales 59,537 81,958 109,659 320,244 527,763 681,606
- Mobile handset components, assembly services 52,522 59,354 85,546 70,147 73,655 77,338
- Rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic 9,719 12,157 16,095 20,118 26,154 36,093
Total 121,778 153,469 211,300 410,510 627,572 795,036

Revenue by Products (yoy %)


- Vehicle sales -17.0% 37.7% 33.8% 192.0% 64.8% 29.2%
- Mobile handset components, assembly services 27.0% 13.0% 44.1% -18.0% 5.0% 5.0%
- Rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic 12.0% 25.1% 32.4% 25.0% 30.0% 38.0%
Total 26.0% 37.7% 94.3% 52.9% 26.7%

Revenue by Products (weighting %)


- Vehicle sales 48.9% 53.4% 51.9% 78.0% 84.1% 85.7%
- Mobile handset components, assembly services 43.1% 38.7% 40.5% 17.1% 11.7% 9.7%
- Rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic 8.0% 7.9% 7.6% 4.9% 4.2% 4.5%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

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Figure 34: Revenue breakdown by segment (FY19 to FY24F) Figure 35: Net profit (FY19 to FY24F)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 36: Consolidated Income Statement (FY19 to FY24F)


Consolidated Income Statement
FYE Dec (Rmb million) Dec-19A Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Revenue 121,778 153,469 211,300 410,510 627,572 795,036
Cost of sales (103,702) (126,226) (187,667) (353,059) (532,061) (669,139)

Gross profit 18,076 27,244 23,633 57,451 95,511 125,897


Other income 3,329 3,194 4,641 2,000 1,000 0
R&D expenses (5,629) (7,465) (7,991) (14,368) (23,848) (31,006)
Selling and marketing expenses (4,346) (5,056) (6,082) (11,494) (18,827) (24,646)
Administrative expenses (4,232) (4,396) (5,742) (10,263) (16,317) (20,671)
Other operting expenses (214) (2,057) (1,987) (4,967) (5,463) (6,010)

Operating profit 6,984 11,464 6,472 18,360 32,056 43,564


Net finance cost (3,134) (2,929) (1,276) 417 284 189
Shares of associate co. (423) (187) (145) 2 4 6
Extraordinary items (996) (1,466) (533) (982) 0 0

Profit before taxation 2,431 6,883 4,518 17,796 32,345 43,760


Taxation (312) (869) (551) (1,780) (3,234) (4,376)
Minority interests (504) (1,780) (922) (3,632) (6,601) (8,931)

Net profit 1,614 4,234 3,045 12,385 22,509 30,453


Core net profit 2,611 5,700 3,579 13,367 22,509 30,453

Growth (yoy%)
Revenue 0% 26% 38% 94% 53% 27%
Gross profit 0% 51% -13% 143% 66% 32%
Operating profit -15% 64% -44% 184% 75% 36%
Net profit -42% 162% -28% 307% 82% 35%
Core net profit -25% 118% -37% 274% 68% 35%

Ratio analysis (%)


Gross margin 14.8% 17.8% 11.2% 14.0% 15.2% 15.8%
Operating margin 5.7% 7.5% 3.1% 4.5% 5.1% 5.5%
Net profit margin 1.3% 2.8% 1.4% 3.0% 3.6% 3.8%
Core net profit margin 2.1% 3.7% 1.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.8%
R&D to revenue ratio 4.6% 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.8% 3.9%
Selling and marketing expenses to revenue ratio 3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1%
Administrative expenses to revenue ratio 3.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6%
SG&A cost to sales 7.0% 6.2% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6% 5.7%
Taxation rate 12.8% 12.6% 12.2% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Dividend payout 10.1% 9.7% 10.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

+/- change %
Gross margin n.a. 2.9% -6.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Operating margin n.a. 1.7% -4.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Net profit margin n.a. 1.4% -1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Recurring net profit margin n.a. 1.6% -2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2%
SG&A to sales n.a. -0.9% -0.6% -0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

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Profit margin trend


Increasing vehicle and net profit margins from FY22F to FY24F. We estimate
BYD’s vehicle margins will reach 16.8%/17.2%/17.6% in FY22F/23F/24F, thanks
to a strong delivery momentum, and cheaper cost of production. Such
improvements in vehicle margins also help to increase net profit margins. We
expect BYD’s core net profit margins to reach 3.3%/3.6%/3.8% in FY22F/23F/24F,
partly due to growing vehicle margins and rising vehicle sales proportion, as well
as steady improvements in cost structure of SG&A.
SG&A to remain constant from FY22F to FY24F due to mature business. We
believe that BYD will maintain its competitive advantage due to its large
operational scale by keeping its SG&A expenses to sales ratio constant at c.10%
in FY22F-24F. Within SG&A costs, we expect the R&D expense to sales ratio to
remain constant at c.4% in FY22F-24F (Figs 37 and 38).

Figure 37: Vehicle margin vs. net profit margin (FY19 to FY24F), annually estimates by
CGS-CIMB research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 38: SG&A expenses to sales ratio (FY19 - FY24F), annually estimates by CGS-
CIMB research

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

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Balance sheet and cashflow


Free cash flow to reach breakeven by FY24F. We forecast BYD's free cash flow
would break even and reach Rmb8.4bn in FY24F as a result of strong EV sales.
In the meantime, we expect capex to rise from Rmb27bn in FY22F to Rmb30m in
FY24F due to the continuous need for investments in battery technology, and
development of autonomous driving systems (Fig 39).

Figure 39: Cash projection (FY20 to FY24F), annual estimates by CGS-CIMB research
FYE Dec (Rmb m) Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
EBITDA 20,737 17,377 33,485 49,406 63,027
Less : Change in working capital 21,386 15,011 (15,389) (23,835) (20,221)
Less : Capital expenditure (5,964) (9,862) (26,860) (29,557) (30,000)
Less : Taxation (869) (551) (1,780) (3,234) (4,376)
Free cash flow 35,290 21,975 (10,544) (7,221) 8,430
Dividend paid (218) (609) (314) (1,263) (2,251)

Net (debt) / cash (36,826) 16,728 13,439 11,142 23,390


Cash and equivalents 14,445 50,457 50,621 51,247 66,684
Total borrowings (51,271) (33,729) (37,182) (40,106) (43,294)
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, COMPANY REPORTS

24
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BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Valuation and recommendation


Initiate coverage with Add
Initiate coverage with Add. We initiate coverage of BYD with an Add call due to
its rapidly-growing NEV and battery business. We forecast BYD’s EV shipment to
achieve robust growth of 204%/60%/23% yoy, with 1.84m/2.94m/3.62m units, in
FY22F/23F/24F, thanks to successful launches of 1) Dynasty series’ Song DM-I
SUV (PHEV) and refreshed Tan electric SUV, and 2) Ocean series’ Destroyer
sedan EV and Seal sedan EV in 2022, and 3) strong new models in the pipeline.
We are also positive on BYD’s Blade Battery, which is much safer and offers
higher energy density and endurance, due to the innovative battery technology.
We believe that Blade Battery’s mass production to unlock the market value of its
battery manufacturing helps to reduce overall EV battery production costs and
generate profit from selling EV batteries to other EV makers.
SOP valuation of HK$333.70
SOP valuation of HK$333.70. We adopt a sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation
methodology for our target price due to different development stages of its NEV,
handset components manufacturing and rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic
business. BYD’s SOP valuation is Rmb877.4bn, comprising NEV business
accounts (96.4%), handset components manufacturing (1.0%), rechargeable
batteries and photovoltaic business (0.7%), and cash (1.9%). Hence, SOP
valuation per share is HK$333.70, which is equivalent to 39x FY23F P/E. (Fig 40).
BYD trades at huge discount to Tesla in P/S. BYD trades at 1.46x FY23F P/S,
substantially lower than Tesla’s 6.9x (Bloomberg consensus) (TSLA US, Not
Rated, CP: US$121.82), its key competitor in China (Fig 41 and 43). China’s top
three smart EV makers also trade at higher valuations, in term of P/S, to BYD.
NIO (9866 HK, Add, CP: HK$78.15) now trades at 2.58x FY23F P/S, XPeng (9868
HK, Add, CP: HK$37.55) at 1.90x FY23F P/S, and Li Auto (2015 HK, Add, CP:
HK$74.50) at 3.25x FY23F P/S.
We apply a FY23F EBITDA of 18x for BYD’s NEV business (EV sales and EV
batteries manufacturing), which is at a 10% discount vs. Tesla, its largest direct
competitor in the domestic NEV market, due to lower profitability from NEV sales.
We use 10x FY23F P/E for its handset component and assembly manufacturing
business, which is on par with the large-cap domestic handset component
suppliers (Sunny Optical, 2382 HK: Add, CP: HK$90.40) and AAC Technologies,
2018 HK: Reduce, CP: HK$171.8).
We apply a 20x FY23F P/E on its rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic
business to reflect the fast-growing nature of the business.
BYD had a net cash position of Rmb16.7bn at end-FY21. We forecast free cash
flow of Rmb18bn in FY22F and Rmb22.3bn in FY23F due to its rapidly-growing
NEV business.

Figure 40: Sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation

Sum-of-the-parts Rmb million Per share (HK$) Valuation methodology


Electric vehicle sales and EV battery manufacturing - A 845,801 321.7
18x EBITDA (FY23F) in NEV bussiness, 10% discount to Tesla
- Estimate EBITDA in vehicle and EV battery business (FY23F Rmb m) 46,989
Handset components manufacturing business - B 8,679 3.30 10x P/E (FY23F) in handset component and assembly manufacturing, at par
- Estimate net profit in handset business (FY23F Rmb m) 868 with large-cap domestic peers

Rechargable batteries and photovoltaic business - C 6,165 2.34 20x P/E (FY23F) in rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic business, at par
- Estimate net profit in rechargable batteries and Photovoltaic business (FY23F Rmb ) 308 with domestic peer's average

Net cash / (debt) at 31 Dec 2021 (Rmb m) - D 16,728 6.36 Net cash on hand
Total valuation (Rmb million) 877,372 A + B + C +D
Value per share (HK$) 333.7
No. of issued shares (million) 2,911.10

Upside 74.7%

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Figure 41: BYD’s P/S , estimates by CGS-CIMB research and Figure 42: BYD’s P/E, estimates by CGS-CIMB research and
Bloomberg consensus Bloomberg consensus

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, BLOOMBERG SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, BLOOMBERG

Figure 43: Tesla’s P/S , estimates by CGS-CIMB research and Figure 44: Tesla’s P/E, , estimates by CGS-CIMB research and
Bloomberg consensus Bloomberg consensus

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, BLOOMBERG SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, BLOOMBERG

26
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Figure 45: Peers comparison


Market
Bloom berg Price Target price Cap P/E (x) 3-year P/BV (x) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Yield (%)
Upside EPS
Com pany Code Recom . (local curr) (local curr) (US$m ) CY2022F CY2023F CY2022F CY2023F CY2022F CY2023F CY2022F CY2023F CY2022F CY2023F
(%) CAGR %
NIO, Li Auto and Xpeng
NIO Inc 9866 HK Add 78.15 130.3 67% 16,752 na na na 5.5 5.3 -43.7% -23.3% na na 0.0% 0.0%
Zhejiang Leapmotor 9863 HK Not Rated 27.50 N/A n.a. 4,030 na na na 4.2 9.8 -42.8% 59.3% na na 0.0% 0.0%
Li Auto 2015 HK Add 74.50 142.2 91% 19,928 na 118.4 na 2.7 2.7 -3.5% 2.3% na 73.5 0.0% 0.0%
XPeng Inc 9868 HK Add 37.55 80.1 113% 8,314 na na na 1.8 2.4 -26.1% -22.9% na na 0.0% 0.0%

Electric vehicle m anufacturers


BYD Co. 1211 HK Add 191.00 333.7 75% 93,182 37.5 22.1 105.2% 5.1 4.5 14.4% 21.5% 14.4 9.8 0.3% 0.5%
Tesla Inc TSLA US Not Rated 112.71 N/A n.a. 355,910 27.5 21.0 47.3% 8.4 6.2 33.9% 32.2% 17.5 12.3 0.0% 0.0%
Average 32.5 21.5 76.2% 6.8 5.3 24.1% 26.8% 15.9 11.1 0.1% 0.2%

China Autom oible m anufacturers


Geely Automobile 175 HK Not Rated 11.36 N/A n.a. 14,653 18.8 13.1 15.8% 1.4 1.3 7.1% 9.6% 7.3 5.4 1.8% 2.5%
Great Wall Motor 2333 HK Not Rated 10.00 N/A n.a. 29,278 8.2 8.1 19.1% 1.2 1.1 15.0% 13.7% 13.3 11.2 5.1% 5.4%
Guangzhou Auto 2238 HK Not Rated 5.20 N/A n.a. 13,657 4.7 4.1 22.8% 0.5 0.4 10.6% 10.9% 86.3 15.4 6.0% 6.7%
Average 10.6 8.4 19.2% 1.0 0.9 10.9% 11.4% 35.6 10.7 4.3% 4.9%

Foriegn autom obile m anufacturers


Kia Motor 000270 KS Add 59,300 80,000 35% 18,963 4.5 3.9 11.4% 0.6 0.5 14.3% 14.6% 1.2 0.6 2.0% 2.0%
Hyundai Motor 005380 KS Add 151,000 190,000 26% 25,452 5.5 4.9 22.7% 0.5 0.5 9.8% 9.9% 7.4 6.1 2.0% 2.6%
Toyota 7203 JP Not Rated 1,817.00 N/A n.a. 221,872 9.1 9.3 13.9% 1.0 0.9 11.6% 10.1% 12.9 11.9 3.2% 3.2%
BMW BMW GR Not Rated 83.13 N/A n.a. 58,228 3.5 6.0 -4.1% 0.7 0.6 20.9% 10.6% 4.1 4.1 9.0% 5.7%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG GR Not Rated 61.15 N/A n.a. 69,575 4.8 5.3 -5.7% 0.8 0.8 18.1% 15.3% 1.6 1.5 8.1% 7.8%
Volksw agen VOW GR Not Rated 145.30 N/A n.a. 70,792 4.4 4.9 5.3% 0.5 0.5 11.4% 9.7% 0.9 0.9 10.0% 5.9%
Ford F US Not Rated 10.95 N/A n.a. 44,024 5.6 6.0 -2.0% 1.0 0.9 15.2% 12.6% 2.1 2.6 4.5% 4.9%
General Motor GM US Not Rated 32.53 N/A n.a. 46,215 4.5 5.5 -5.3% 0.7 0.6 17.3% 11.2% 2.6 2.5 0.5% 1.6%
Average 5.2 5.7 4.5% 0.7 0.7 14.8% 11.7% 4.1 3.8 4.9% 4.2%

Battery m anufacturers
CATL 300750 CH Not Rated 393.96 N/A n.a. 138,154 36.0 23.9 57.1% 7.3 5.5 21.4% 23.3% 23.6 15.2 0.1% 0.4%
EVE Energy 300014 CH Not Rated 89.91 N/A n.a. 26,356 51.2 27.9 44.9% 8.0 5.8 15.8% 22.5% 50.2 24.3 0.2% 0.4%
Gotion High-Tech 002074 CH Not Rated 29.65 N/A n.a. 7,573 89.8 33.4 108.5% 2.5 2.4 2.8% 7.5% 29.0 16.2 0.3% 1.0%
Shenzhen Desay Battery 000049 CH Not Rated 44.10 N/A n.a. 1,896 15.0 13.1 15.9% 3.4 2.8 22.8% 22.4% N/A N/A 1.5% 1.7%
LG Energy Solution 373220 KS Not Rated 435,500 N/A n.a. 80,368 110.1 60.0 44.6% 5.3 4.9 7.0% 8.8% 31.9 21.3 0.0% 0.0%
SK On 096770 KS Not Rated 154,000 N/A n.a. 11,230 5.3 7.0 47.5% 0.7 0.6 14.3% 9.1% 4.0 5.4 2.4% 2.3%
Samsung SDI 006400 KS Add 591,000 890,000 51% 32,059 22.7 19.1 29.4% 2.5 2.2 11.4% 12.1% 8.4 6.7 0.2% 0.2%
Average 47.2 26.4 49.7% 4.2 3.5 13.6% 15.1% 24.5 14.9 0.7% 0.8%

Electric vehicle parts m anufactuers


LK Technology 558 HK Not Rated 6.22 N/A n.a. 1,098 12.7 14.6 44.1% 2.5 2.0 22.0% 14.6% 8.9 9.5 1.3% 1.8%
Times Electric 3898 HK Not Rated 37.80 N/A n.a. 9,421 19.8 17.1 16.3% 1.4 1.3 7.2% 7.5% 19.7 17.1 1.3% 1.5%
Ningbo Joyson Electronic 600699 CH Not Rated 13.92 N/A n.a. 2,734 38.8 19.4 -222.0% 1.6 1.5 4.1% 7.6% 9.8 7.9 0.9% 1.5%
Continental AG CON GY Not Rated 55.92 N/A n.a. 11,895 14.6 6.7 14.4% 0.9 0.8 3.7% 12.5% 3.9 3.0 2.2% 4.7%
Valeo FR FP Not Rated 16.71 N/A n.a. 4,327 18.0 8.9 62.1% 1.1 1.0 5.9% 11.6% 3.6 3.0 2.5% 4.3%
Magna International MGA US Not Rated 55.05 N/A n.a. 15,734 12.1 9.1 16.0% 1.5 1.4 11.4% 15.1% 5.7 4.9 3.3% 3.4%
Average 19.3 12.6 -11.5% 1.5 1.3 9.0% 11.5% 8.6 7.6 1.9% 2.9%

Autom otive softw are providers


Desay SV 002920 CH Not Rated 107.72 N/A n.a. 8,588 55.0 37.4 42.7% 9.5 7.8 18.6% 22.8% 38.2 27.5 0.5% 0.7%
ThunderSoft 300496 CH Not Rated 102.86 N/A n.a. 6,755 50.1 37.1 36.4% 6.0 5.2 13.7% 15.6% 43.0 30.9 0.4% 0.5%
Average 52.5 37.2 39.5% 7.8 6.5 16.1% 19.2% 40.6 29.2 0.4% 0.6%

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, BLOOMBERG (PRICE AT AS 29 DEC 2022)


Note: Forecasts for Not rated companies are based on Bloomberg consensus estimates

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BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Share price catalysts


What is factored into the current share price?
BYD’s dominant market share in China NEV market. BYD is the market leader
in China’s NEV market. In 2021, BYD’s NEV sales volume jumped 218% yoy to
594k units. Its NEV market share in China was 17.1% in 2021, representing an
increase of c.8% pts in 2021 according to the China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers. We believe that BYD can maintain this high growth rate in NEV
sales in FY22-24F. We estimate BYD to deliver 1.84m/2.94m/3.62m units
(+204%/60%/23% yoy) in FY22F/23F/24F.
BYD is the only profitable EV maker in China NEV industry. BYD is the only
EV manufacturer to achieve profitability in its automobile business, thanks to its
fully integrated manufacturing capability in electric vehicles. BYD has developed
its own power batteries, powertrain systems, automotive semiconductor drive-
motors and motor controller system etc. This allows the company to achieve better
control of the supply chain with lower component costs.
Valuation gap with Tesla to narrow. We believe the valuation gap between BYD
and Tesla will narrow in the near future due to BYD’s 1) sustained market share
gain in China NEV market, thanks to its enriched EV portfolio; 2) rapidly-growing
overseas EV sales, especially in Europe, taking market share from Tesla; 3) rising
profitability in automobile and EV battery manufacturing on better operational
scale; and 4) stronger EV battery output and supply to other EV makers.

What is not factored into the current share price?


Potential revenue stream from selling EV batteries to other EV makers. BYD
claims that its high performance Blade batteries can reduce power consumption
by 20% and increase the driving distance by 3%. They also offer a higher standard
of safety, compared with the current mainstream nickel manganese cobalt (NMC)
battery. The Blade battery was adopted in BYD Han, one of BYD’s best-selling
cars since 2020. BYD announced that it plans to start manufacturing and selling
Blade battery to other EV makers in FY24F or FY25F.
BYD speeds up its overseas expansion strategy. BYD has been rapidly
growing its EV sales in overseas market in FY21 and FY22F. BYD currently sells
pure-electric buses, taxis and passenger cars in more than 70 countries and
regions, include Brazil, Australia, Singapore, India, and Norway. BYD announced
that it plans to set up more manufacturing bases in Asia and the EU to capture the
fast growing global EV markets.

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Risks
Policy risks:
Subsidies will be phased out eventually. The subsidy programmes announced
by the central government include the gradual phasing out of subsidies. The
current programme will lower subsidies by 10% in 2020, 20% in 2021, and 30%
in 2022, based on the subsidy of the previous year. This poses a risk to NEV sales,
particularly as demand for NEV is becoming more elastic, with BYD’s new NEV
models entering the market in the future.
No limit on foreign ownership of NEV manufacturers. On 23 Jun 2020, the
ministries announced the Special Administrative Measures for Market Access of
Foreign Investment, or the 2020 Foreign Investment Negative List, under which
foreign EV competitors could build wholly-owned facilities in China without the
need for a domestic joint venture partner. For example, Tesla constructed the
Tesla Giga Shanghai factory in Shanghai without a joint venture partner. Such
changes have led to greater market competition and reduced the pricing
advantage of local automakers.
Industry and company risks:
The competitiveness in China NEV industry is intense. BYD is the largest new
energy vehicles manufacturers in China, and also around the globe. However, the
competitiveness in NEV market is highly competitive in China and globe. Current
and potential competitors such as Tesla, NIO, Xpeng and LiAuto have
continuously released new models and achieved technological breakthrough in
EV operating system and ADAS. BYD could find it challenging to maintain its
leadership position in China NEV market.
BYD has to make extra effort and long-term investment on their research and
development such as its just released industry leader EV battery- Blade Battery (
刀片电池), in order to maintain its competitive edges in NEV, also their market
leader position. We expect competition in the mid- to high- to-premium EV
segments to intensify in the future with new players and increasing R&D budgets
for technological innovation on product safety and quality. Therefore, if peers
successfully compete with or surpass the quality or performance of BYD’s vehicles,
this could adversely affect its EV sales and profitability.
Rising battery costs to hit vehicle margin. The price of lithium carbonate has
been rising continuously since Jun 2020, from the price was around Rmb41k per
ton, has exceeded Rmb600k per ton in Oct 2022. The Battery-grade lithium
carbonate prices in China costs surged 10-14 times more than its price in two
years ago. Power batteries production will be severely hindered since lithium
carbonate is one of the major raw materials for power batteries. The boosting
procurement demand of upstream raw materials of the rapidly-growing EV sales
could further push up the price. As a result, the profit margin for the company
could be affected due to higher production costs with respect to the rise of raw
materials. Therefore, consumers face a higher retail price for new energy vehicles
and the company suffer from lower profit margin.
Foreign exchange rate is fluctuating. Recently, US treasury yields rose quickly
driven by the aggressive rate hikes from the fed has led to a sharp depreciation
of Renminbi (Rmb) against US dollar (US$). Rmb has more downward pressure
against other major currencies also. It implies Rmb is having a weaker purchasing
power. It reduces BYD's revenue due to higher cost of sales. Since the sourcing
of some key components such as advanced chips usually rely on the supply from
foreign countries, the greater depreciation of Rmb against other currencies, the
greater manufacturing costs BYD suffers. Overall, the foreign currency risks
remain uncertain for BYD’s profitability.

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BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Company background
BYD – China’s automobile and battery giant
The company was founded in Feb 1995 and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock
Exchange, with the stock code 1211.HK, in 2002 and Shenzhen Stock Exchange,
with the stock code 002594.CH, in 2011. BYD is a high-tech company based in
Shenzhen engaged in the automobile business, including manufacture of both
new energy and traditional fuel engine vehicles (production and launch of models
for the latter were halted in Mar 2022), rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics,
as well as handset components and assembly.

Figure 46: Company structure

BYD

Handset Rechargable Battery and


Components and Automobiles Business Photovoltiacs Business

New Energy
Vehicles Rail Transport

Dynasty Series and Ocean Series: Qin, Han, Tang,


Song, Yuan, Dolphin, Seal, Destroyer 05 and
SkyRail and
Frigate 07 SkyShuttle

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

Top electric vehicle manufacturer in the world. BYD started off as a


manufacturer of rechargeable batteries and expanded its business into auto
production in 2002 when it acquired Qinchuan Automobile. Currently, BYD is the
only new energy vehicle (NEV) producer in China to have developed its own
powertrain systems, power batteries, automotive semiconductor drive-motors and
motor controller systems. Also, in 2022, BYD became the first manufacturer in the
world to produce 1m electric passenger cars globally.
In terms of the future, the company mentioned that new energy vehicles and urban
rail transportation are its major focus areas for long-term, sustainable
development, underpinned by technology advancement and high standards of
quality.
BYD Electronics – 65.76% owned. BYD Electronics (International) Company
Limited (BYDE) is a Chinese company focused on four major areas: 1)
smartphones and PCs, 2) new intelligent products, 3) automotive intelligent
systems, and 4) medical and health products. A subsidiary that was established
in 2002, it was spun off as BYD Electronics in 2007 and listed on HKEX in the
same year. As of 30 Jun 2022, BYD owned a 65.76% stake in BYD Electronics.
BYD Electronics mainly serves smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung,
Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Honor, Huawei and Apple, which combined accounted for
more than 70% of its FY21 revenue (see details in Appendix II).
High efficient, intelligent and integrated semiconductor producer. BYD is
also engaged in the semiconductor business, primarily in the research and
development, manufacturing and sales of power semiconductors, intelligent
control IC, intelligent sensors and photoelectric semiconductors, which have wide
market applications.

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BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Industry-leading new energy solutions provider. At the same time, BYD


provides new energy solutions that are focused on the production, storage, and
applications of renewable energy. These solutions are intended to solve
bottlenecks in conventional photovoltaic (PV) power generation and satisfy a
variety of market demands.
Three components make up this creative approach at the moment: rechargeable
batteries, solar power, and energy storage. These fields have widespread
adoption across numerous mediums. Rechargeable batteries, for instance, are
used in a large range of applications, including energy storage, new energy
vehicles, and consumer electronics. To lower the cost of manufacturing solar
modules and encourage the usage of clean energy, solar power solutions are
offered. With BYD’s developing battery technology, it can further enhance the
infrastructure that supports the production of renewable energy for its energy
storage service.
Urban Rail transportation business. BYD is actively developing the application
of the “Urban Rail Transportation system” in its home market. The company has
committed Rmb5bil and more than 1,000 engineers to a five-year research and
development initiative to develop BYD SkyRail, a straddle-beam monorail system
with unique technologies for switches, bogies, track beams, and other
fundamental technologies throughout the supply chain.
BYD plans to construct the entire SkyRail system, including vehicles, rail, stations,
and communication systems, using its own innovative capabilities and knowledge.
Company milestones

Figure 47: BYD company milestones (1995 to 2022)

1995 • In Feb, BYD was founded in Shenzhen, China.

2000 • BYD became one of the largest rechargeable batteries manufacturers in the world.

2002 • In Jul, BYD listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

2003 • In Jan, BYD acquired the qinchuan Automobile and entered the automotive market.

2008 • In Sep, Warren Buffet's Bershire hathaway pruchases 10% stake in BYD.
• In Dec,BYD first plug in hybrid automobile F3DM PHEV-60 Sedan in world released.

2011 • In Jun, BYD listed on the SME Board of Shen Zhen Stock Exchange.

2015 • In Dec, BYD delivers more than 60,000 electic buses and electrics trucks globally in total.

2016 • In Oct, BYD skyrail global debut and entered the mass transit market.

2017 • In Oct, BYD set up the largest electic bus factory and the first Chinese owned bus factory in United States.

2018 • In Jan, BYD officially launched unmanned driving system Skyrail Line in Yinchuan

• In May, BYD launched its power baterry production base at Hunan province.
2019
• In Nov, BYD and Toyota jointed to established a R&D company specialise for battery electric vehicles.

2020 • In Mar, BYD officially launched their self developed innovative LFP battery called blade battery.

2021 • In Sep, BYD launched e-platform 3.0 for BEVs, debuts new concept model Ocean-X
• In Jan, BYD launched its DM-i super hybrid technology that focuses on ultra-low fuel consumption.

• In Feb, BYD unveiled the cell to body technology upgrade the integration level of blade battery.
2022 • In Apr, BYD terminated the production of gasoline engines automobile for enviornmental purpose.
• In Jun, BYD offcially overtaking Tesla to become the world largest NEV manufacturer.
• In Sep, BYD announced the construction of its first EV factory plant in Rayong Province, Thailand.
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

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BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Research and development


BYD has invested greatly in research and development. BYD divides its
research and development team into six institutes: 1) Central Research Institute,
2) Auto Engineering Research Institute, 3) Auto Intelligent Ecology Institute, 4)
Truck Research Institute, 5) Bus Research Institute and Product Planning, and 6)
New Auto Technology Research Institute. Each research institute undertakes
innovation in its respective areas, from inventing new materials and new product
design to improving industrial technologies and incubation.
EV battery research & development. BYD is focused on the development of a
new battery electric platform, dubbed "e-platform 3.0", as well as technology for
its core battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Recently, the
group announced the successful invention of Cell-to-Body (CTB) technology,
which allows torsion rigidity of the battery to exceed 40,000Nm, improving
integration between the "blade battery" and vehicle body and hence enhancing
the vehicle’s safety.

Supply chain
BYD develops its own software and hardware. Unlike its key competitors who
depend greatly on third-party software and hardware suppliers, BYD develops its
core technology and manufactures most of its core EV components in-house. This
is to ensure the company maintains a rapid pace of innovation to enable
continuous new EV model rollouts and to stay competitive as vehicle systems
become more and more complex.

Figure 48: BYD’s EV Supply Chain

Dynasty Series and Ocean Series: Qin, Han, Tang, Song, Yuan, Dolphin, Seal,
Destroyer 05 and Frigate 07

Design and Mainly using


Designs and develops own
manufatures Selfproduced Chips
autonoumous driving and
Batteries in from BYD
operating system (DiPilot and E-
house. Semiconductor and
platform 3.0) and powertrain and
(LFP cells and purchase partial chips
E/E architecture in house
Blade Battery) from other

Manufactures the EV in its BYD plants globally: China, US, Brazil, Japan,
India and more

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

Production facilities
BYD now has over 30 industrial parks and production bases worldwide. After
27 years of rapid development, BYD owns more than 30 industrial parks and
production bases around the globe, with a total area of over 18m sq m, mainly in
China; other locations are US, Brazil, Japan and India. Figure 49 shows the
distribution of BYD production bases and supporting centres.

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Figure 49: BYD Production Facilities Location as at 29 Dec 2022

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

New production bases in Shenzhen. BYD has officially started construction on


a new project at its fourth industrial park in Shen Shan, Shenzhen, Guangdong
province, China, which will become the core base to provide parts and
components for auto production. The project is scheduled to be completed and
commence operation by the end of July 2023, with annual production value
targeting at more than Rmb100bn.
Setting up EV plant in Thailand. Furthermore, in 2022, BYD announced that it
plans to build an electric vehicle manufacturing plant in an industrial area in the
Rayong province, Thailand; this is its first passenger car assembly plant in
Southeast Asia and it plans to invest approximately US$500m. We believe this
initiative will help BYD expand into the Southeast Asia market.
Capital exercise
BYD's Class A shares are listed on HKEX with stock code 1211.HK and on SZSE
with stock code 002594.CH. The total issued share capital of the company as at
30 June 2022 was Rmb2,911,142,855, divided into 1,813,142,855 A shares of
Rmb1.00 each and 1,098,000,000 H shares of Rmb1.00 each, all fully paid up.
BYD launched an initial public offering (IPO) on the HKEX on 26 July 2002. The
company issued a total 130m H shares, of which 13m were public offer shares
and the remaining were placing shares. The nominal value per H share was
Rmb1.0 and the offer price was HK$12.2 per H share.
In 2011, BYD was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) with an initial
IPO price of Rmb18 per share and raised a total of Rmb1.42bn (US$219m).
In Jan 2021, BYD issued 133m new H shares (at the share price of HK$225)
through a placement to raise HK$29.9bn.
In Oct 2021, BYD issued 50m new H shares through a placement (at the share
price of HK$276.0) and raised HK$13.8bn.

33
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Shareholding structure
As of 30 Jun 2022, a total of 2,911.1m of shares, with 1,813.1 m of A shares and
1,098 m of H shares, were issued by BYD (Fig 50).
In terms of A shares, Director and founder, Wong Chuan Fu, is the major
shareholder of BYD, with 513.62m A shares or 17.64% of the total issued shares.
Lv Xiang Yang and Xia Zuo Quan hold 393.23m and 82.64m A shares,
respectively, accounting for approximately 13.51% and 2.84% of the total issued
share capital as at 29 Dec 2022, respectively.
In terms of H shares, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK US, Not
Rated, CP: US$468,725) holds 182.48m H shares and Blackrock Inc holds
33.54m, which accounts for approximately 6.27% and 1.15% of total issued share
capital as at 29f Dec 2022, respectively.

Figure 50: Shareholding structure on 29 Dec 2022


Major shareholder

Mr.Wang Chuan Fu (Chairman, 17.64% )

Key investors Major shareholders

v Mr. Lv Xiang Yang (Non Executive Vice


Berkshire Hathaway (6.27% ) Chairman,13.51%)
v
BYD Co LTD. (1211 HK / 002594 CH)
v
Mr. Xia Zuo Quan (Non Executive Director,2.84%)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

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Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Key management
Mr. Wang Chuan Fu (王傳福), Executive Chairman of the Board, President
Mr. Wang Chuan Fu, aged 56, is a master’s degree holder and senior engineer.
Mr. Wang graduated from Central South University of Technology (currently
known as Central South University ) in 1987 with a bachelor’s degree majoring in
metallurgy physical chemistry before graduating from Beijing Non-Ferrous
Research Institute in the PRC in 1990 with a master’s degree majoring in
metallurgy physical chemistry. Mr. Wang has held positions as vice supervisor in
Beijing Non-Ferrous Research Institute and general manager in Shenzhen Bi Ge
Battery Co. Limited. In February 1995, he founded Shenzhen BYD Battery
Company Limited (BYD Battery, before changing its name to BYD Company
Limited on 11 June 2002) with Mr. Lv Xiang Yang and took the position of general
manager.
He is the chairman, executive director and president of the company and is
responsible for the general operations and the development of business
strategies. He is also a non-executive director and the chairman of BYD Electronic
(International) Company Limited, the chairman of BYD Semiconductor Co., Ltd, a
director of Shenzhen DENZA New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd. (formerly known
as Shenzhen BYD Daimler New Technology Co., Ltd.), a director of China Railway
Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd., an independent director of Renren Inc.,
and a director of Southern University of Science and Technology of China.

Mr. Lv Xiang Yang (呂向陽), Non-Executive Vice Chairman


Mr. Lv Xiang Yang, aged 60, is an economist and cousin of Mr. Wang Chuan Fu.
Mr. Lv Xiang Yang previously worked at Chaohu Branch of the People’s Bank of
China. In February 1995, he founded BYD Battery with Mr. Wang Chuan-fu and
is currently the vice chairman and a non-executive director of the company.
Among his numerous positions, he is also chairman of Youngy Investment Holding
Group Co., Ltd., Youngy Co., Ltd., Youngy Health Technology Co., Ltd., Onyx
International Inc., Nanjing Regenecore Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and Youngy
Education Technology Co., Ltd., a director of Anhua Agricultural Insurance
Company Limited and honorary chairman of Guangdong Manufacturers
Association and Guangdong Association for the Promotion of Industrial
Development.

Mr. Xia Zuo Quan (夏佐全), Non-Executive Director


Mr. Xia Zuo Quan, aged 59, is a Chinese national with no right of abode overseas
and a master’s degree holder. Mr. Xia studied computer science in Beijing Institute
of Iron and Steel Engineering (now known as University of Science & Technology
Beijing) from 1985 to 1987 and he graduated from Guanghua School of
Management of Peking University with an EMBA in 2007. Mr. Xia worked in the
Hubei branch of The People’s Insurance Company and joined BYD Battery in
1997; he has held positions as an executive director and vice president of the
company. He is currently a non-executive director of the company and chairman
of Shenzhen Zhengxuan Investment (Holdings) Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Zhengxuan
Qianhai Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. and Beijing Zhengxuan
Investment Co., Ltd., a director of Shenzhen UBTECH Robotics Co., Ltd.,
Shenzhen Uni-Fortune Supply Chain Service Co., Ltd. and Chongqing One Space
Technology Company Limited, chairman of Annuo Youda Gene Technology
(Beijing) Co. Ltd., an independent director of China Yuhua Education Corporation
Limited, executive (managing) director of Shenzhen Zhengxuan Makerspace
Technology Limited and vice chairman of Shenzhen Lianxia Charity Foundation.

35
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Appendix I - Strategic business cooperation


Cooperation with UzAuto, NVIDIA and Shell
Strategic Memorandum of Understanding with UzAuto. In Feb 2022, BYD and
UZAVTOSANOAT JSC (UzAuto) signed a strategic Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) to develop, produce and popularise new energy vehicles
(NEV) in Uzbekistan. The MoU aims to support a new era of sustainable transport,
laying the foundations for the mass rollout of new energy vehicles via efficient
sales channels and aftersales services, to enhance EV development in Central
Asia and beyond.

Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA. In March 2022, BYD teamed up with


NVIDIA, the world’s leading artificial intelligence computing manufacturer, to
promote the new energy vehicle industry. The cooperation is an important joint
effort in the production and deployment of environmentally sustainable EVs that
become increasingly intelligent with over-the-air software updates. With this
cooperation with NVIDIA, the company expects to equip some of its new energy
vehicles with the NVIDIA “DRIVE Hyperion” platform from 2023 onwards to enable
intelligent driving and intelligent parking.

Global Strategic Cooperation agreement with Shell. The company has also
partnered with Shell to speed up the energy transition and improve the charging
experience for BYD’s battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric
vehicle (PHEV) customers. Particularly, BYD and Shell is going to build EV hubs
and charging networks in China and key European markets and intend to
collaborate on global research and development in the areas of battery
performance and advanced charging.
By collaborating with more partners collectively, the company will be able to build
an ecosystem that not only enriches the experience of EV owners around the
world but which can also contribute to China’s 2030 and 2060 carbon targets and
global emission reduction goals.

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BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Appendix II – BYD Electronics


BYD Electronic – 65.76% owned
BYD Electronics (International) Company Limited (BYDE) is a Chinese
company focused on four major areas: 1) smartphones and PCs, 2) new
intelligent products, 3) automotive intelligent systems, and 4) medical and
health products. A subsidiary that was established in 2002, it was spun off as BYD
Electronics in 2007 and listed on HKEX in the same year. As of 30 Jun 2022, BYD
owned a 65.76% stake in BYD Electronics. BYD Electronics mainly serves
smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Honor,
Huawei and Apple, which combined accounted for more than 70% of its FY21
revenue.
1) Smartphones, notebooks and PCs. BYDE has deepened its strategic
relationships with major customers, specifically those in the Android
camp. Since 2007, the company has gained assembly share, increased
shipments of core products to major customers in North America and
intensified cooperation in new product lines. Moreover, the emergence of
5G has boosted shipment of 5G mobile phones while the pandemic has
given rise to demand growth for laptops, which the company believes is
sustainable.
2) New intelligent products. BYD Electronics’s market expansion
strategies involve a comprehensive lineup of products covering IoT, smart
home appliances, gaming hardware, robots, unmanned aerial vehicles,
electronic atomisation, intelligent commercial equipment, industrial
control, etc. The demand for smart home products both domestically and
globally has increased significantly under the impact of Covid-19, driving
growth of the global smart home industry. In response, the group has
introduced various high-quality products, leading to increased revenue
scale.
3) Automotive intelligent systems. Benefiting from the rapid growth of new
energy vehicles, shipments of its multimedia central control system, for
installation in both BYD and other automobile brands, has increased. With
robust growth of intelligent connected automobiles, the shipments of the
company’s 4G and 5G communication module continued to increase
strong, allowing the business to hit a new high.
4) Medical devices. The Covid-19 pandemic provided an opportunity for the
company to move into the field of medical equipment. In China’s fight
against Covid-19 in 2020, its strong R&D capabilities led to the
establishment of the world’s largest PPE face mask plant, which played a
key role in face mask production at the height of the crisis. R&D and
manufacture of equipment to produce masks were completed in record
time and the newly built production line produced both face masks as well
as face mask sewing machines. By the end of March 2020, the facility
was producing 100,000 face masks per day, which helped ease the
severe mask shortage plaguing hospitals and organisations all across the
world as a result of the pandemic.

37
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ October 19, 2022

Figure 51: BYDE revenue and revenue yoy % change (FY18-21) Figure 52: BYDE net profit and net profit yoy % change (FY18-
21)

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 53: BYDE profit margins (FY18-21) Figure 54: BYDE revenue breakdown In FY21

SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

38
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

BY THE NUMBERS

P/BV vs ROE 12-mth Fwd FD Normalised P/E vs FD


9.8 22.9% 164 Normalised EPS Growth 320%
8.8 20.7% 144 270%
7.8 18.5% 124 220%
6.8 16.2% 104 170%
5.8 14.0%
84 120%
4.8 11.8%
3.8 9.6% 64 70%
2.8 7.3% 44 20%
1.8 5.1% 24 -30%
0.8 2.9% 4 -80%
Jan-18A Jan-19A Jan-20A Jan-21A Jan-22F Jan-23F Jan-18A Jan-19A Jan-20A Jan-21A Jan-22F Jan-23F

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (rhs) 12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Normalised P/E (x) (lhs)
Diluted Normalised EPS Growth (rhs)

Profit & Loss


(Rmbm) Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Total Net Revenues 153,469 211,300 410,510 627,572 795,036
Gross Profit 27,244 23,633 57,451 95,511 125,897
Operating EBITDA 17,697 12,909 31,659 48,580 63,201
Depreciation And Amortisation (9,427) (11,078) (15,299) (17,524) (19,636)
Operating EBIT 8,271 1,831 16,360 31,056 43,564
Financial Income/(Expense) (2,929) (1,276) 417 284 189
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. (187) (145) 2 4 6
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 3,194 4,641 2,000 1,000 0
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 8,348 5,051 18,778 32,345 43,760
Exceptional Items (1,466) (533) (982) 0 0
Pre-tax Profit 6,883 4,518 17,796 32,345 43,760
Taxation (869) (551) (1,780) (3,234) (4,376)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax 6,014 3,967 16,017 29,110 39,384
Minority Interests (1,780) (922) (3,632) (6,601) (8,931)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Preference Dividends (Australia)
Net Profit 4,234 3,045 12,385 22,509 30,453
Normalised Net Profit 7,480 4,501 16,999 29,110 39,384
Fully Diluted Normalised Profit 5,700 3,579 13,367 22,509 30,453

Cash Flow
(Rmbm) Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
EBITDA 17,697 12,909 31,659 48,580 63,201
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. 187 145 (2) (4) (6)
Change In Working Capital 21,386 15,011 (15,389) (23,835) (20,221)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow 9,501 38,932 8,103 8,220 7,317
Net Interest (Paid)/Received (2,929) (1,276) 417 284 189
Tax Paid (449) (254) 447 (3,234) (4,376)
Cashflow From Operations 45,393 65,467 25,235 30,010 46,104
Capex (5,964) (9,862) (26,860) (29,557) (30,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries (239) (3,273) 0 0 0
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments (1,323) (2,799) 0 0 0
Other Investing Cashflow 2,455 11,314 0 0 0
Cash Flow From Investing (5,071) (4,620) (26,860) (29,557) (30,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid) (24,790) (18,106) 3,453 2,924 3,188
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares 0 43,700 0 0 0
Shares Repurchased 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid (218) (609) (314) (1,263) (2,251)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow (3,899) (8,922) (1,349) (1,487) (1,604)
Cash Flow From Financing (28,907) 16,063 1,790 173 (667)
Total Cash Generated 11,414 76,909 164 626 15,437
Free Cashflow To Equity 15,532 42,740 1,827 3,376 19,292
Free Cashflow To Firm 43,445 62,754 (276) 1,940 17,708
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

39
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BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

BY THE NUMBERS… cont’d

Balance Sheet
(Rmbm) Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents 14,445 50,457 50,621 51,247 66,684
Total Debtors 45,220 50,632 98,367 150,380 190,508
Inventories 31,396 43,355 81,564 122,916 154,584
Total Other Current Assets 20,544 21,666 21,666 21,666 21,666
Total Current Assets 111,605 166,110 252,218 346,210 433,442
Fixed Assets 58,202 75,545 87,279 99,487 110,024
Total Investments 5,466 7,905 7,905 7,905 7,905
Intangible Assets 10,174 10,116 10,116 10,116 10,116
Total Other Non-Current Assets 15,571 36,104 36,104 36,104 36,104
Total Non-current Assets 89,412 129,670 141,404 153,611 164,149
Short-term Debt 27,645 22,939 25,292 27,116 29,204
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors 45,220 50,632 98,367 150,380 190,508
Other Current Liabilities 33,567 97,733 141,299 178,394 204,156
Total Current Liabilities 106,431 171,304 264,958 355,890 423,868
Total Long-term Debt 23,626 10,790 11,890 12,990 14,090
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 6,507 9,442 9,729 9,967 10,118
Total Non-current Liabilities 30,133 20,232 21,619 22,956 24,208
Total Provisions 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 136,564 191,536 286,578 378,846 448,075
Shareholders' Equity 56,874 95,070 97,870 111,800 140,341
Minority Interests 7,580 9,175 9,175 9,175 9,175
Total Equity 64,454 104,244 107,045 120,975 149,515

Key Ratios
Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Revenue Growth 26.0% 37.7% 94.3% 52.9% 26.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth 35% (27%) 145% 53% 30%
Operating EBITDA Margin 11.5% 6.1% 7.7% 7.7% 7.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rmb) (13.50) 5.86 4.62 3.83 8.03
BVPS (Rmb) 20.85 33.31 33.62 38.40 48.21
Gross Interest Cover 2.65 0.96 12.13 20.88 27.16
Effective Tax Rate 12.6% 12.2% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 7.2% 8.8% 9.5% 10.0% 10.0%
Accounts Receivables Days 94.73 64.69 46.57 50.85 55.16
Inventory Days 82.59 72.69 64.57 70.14 75.89
Accounts Payables Days 115.2 72.8 54.1 60.0 65.5
ROIC (%) 5.0% 1.3% 13.8% 24.4% 29.2%
ROCE (%) 6.7% 1.9% 12.8% 21.5% 25.6%
Return On Average Assets 4.88% 2.20% 4.84% 6.47% 7.15%

Key Drivers
Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Vehicle sales (No. of '000 units) 194,119.0 603,783.0 1,837,998.8 2,940,798.1 3,617,181.6
Vehicle sales (Rmb bn) 82.0 109.7 320.2 527.8 681.6
Vehicle margin (%) 20.6% 15.2% 16.8% 17.2% 17.6%
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS

40
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

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41
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

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42
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

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43
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

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Score Range: 90 - 100 80 – 89 70 - 79 Below 70 No Survey Result
Description: Excellent Very Good Good N/A N/A

44
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

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Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 30 September 2022
646 companies under coverage for quarter ended on 30 September 2022
Rating Distribution (% ) Investment Banking clients (% )
Add 66.7% 0.6%
Hold 25.2% 0.2%
Reduce 8.0% 0.2%

45
Autos │ Hong Kong
BYD Co Ltd │ December 30, 2022

Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )


BYD Co Ltd (1211 HK)
Price Close

354 Recommendations & Target Price


35.80

35.80
304
254
204
154
104
54
Add Hold Reduce Not Rated
4
Dec-19 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22

Recommendation Framework
Stock Ratings Definition:
Add The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.
Reduce The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.
The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net
dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.
Sector Ratings Definition:
Overweight An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation.
Neutral A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation.
Underweight An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.
Country Ratings Definition:
Overweight An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
Neutral A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark.
Underweight An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
#01d

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