Lecture Notes 8

TURKEY’S SAVINGS, INVESTMENT

AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
PROF. METİN ERCAN

1
 Balance of Payments (Annual)

Source: CBRT. *: Provisional numbers 2

Balance of Payments (Monthly)

3
Foreign Direct Investment
Breakdown of Turkish Imports
Throughout Years (Million USD)
Import of
Intermediate Import of Import of
Non-Energy Goods (Non- Consumption Import of Other Investment
Year Total Import Energy Import Import Energy) Goods Goods Goods
1998 45.921 4.509 41.412,40 25.397,83 5.005 349 10.661
1999 40.671 5.377 35.294,30 21.477,00 4.820 270 8.727
2000 54.503 9.541 44.961,82 26.469,00 6.928 200 11.365
2001 41.399 8.339 33.060,00 21.962,00 3.813 345 6.940
2002 51.554 9.204 42.349,80 28.452,00 4.898 600 8.400
2003 69.340 11.575 57.764,69 38.160,00 7.813 466 11.326
2004 97.540 14.407 83.132,77 53.142,00 12.100 494 17.397
2005 116.774 21.256 95.518,15 60.612,28 13.975 567 20.363
2006 139.576 28.859 110.717,17 70.745,66 16.116 508 23.348
2007 170.057 33.883 136.174,21 89.756,63 18.694 669 27.054
2008 201.964 48.281 153.682,57 103.466,10 21.489 707 28.021
2009 140.928 29.905 111.022,72 69.604,82 19.290 665 21.463
2010 185.544 38.497 147.047,33 92.948,43 24.735 546 28.818
2011 240.842 54.118 186.723,68 119.022,24 29.692 739 37.271
2012 236.545 60.117 176.428,14 114.813,33 26.699 990 33.925
2013 251.661 55.917 195.744,25 127.894,33 30.416 663 36.771
2014 242.177 54.889 187.288,12 121.832,66 29.006 453 35.996
2015 207.234 37.843 169.391,36 105.473,88 28.587 426 34.905
2016 198.618 27.169 171.449,24 107.146,40 27.947 437 35.919
2017 233.792 37.205 196.586,66 134.246,55 28.489 734 33.117
2018 223.047 43.006 180.041,00 127.042,00 22.878 817 29.304
2019 202.704 41.185 161.519,00 116.711,00 18.493 550 25.765
2020 219.517 28.925 190.592,00 134.089,00 24.118 567 31.817
2021 271.423 50.692 220.731,00 159.452,00 24.944 388 35.947

5
Percentage Shares of Various
Product Groups on Turkish
Imports
Distribution of Turkish Imports Based on Product Groups
70,00%

60,00%

50,00%

40,00%

30,00%

20,00%

10,00%

0,00%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Energy(%) Intermediate (Energy Excluded)(%) Consumption Goods(%) Investment Goods(%) Other(%) Gold (%)

Source: TURKSTAT
6
Percentage Shares of Various Product
Groups on Turkish Imports(Cont’d)
Intermediate (Energy Consumption
Year Energy(%) Excluded)(%) Goods(%) Investment Goods(%)Other(%) Gold (%)
1998 9,80% 55,30% 10,90% 23,20% 0,80%
1999 13,20% 52,80% 11,90% 21,50% 0,70%
2000 17,50% 48,60% 12,70% 20,90% 0,40%
2001 20,10% 53,00% 9,20% 16,80% 0,80%
2002 17,90% 55,20% 9,50% 16,30% 1,20%
2003 16,70% 55,00% 11,30% 16,30% 0,70%
2004 14,80% 54,50% 12,40% 17,80% 0,50%
2005 18,20% 51,90% 12,00% 17,40% 0,50%
2006 20,70% 50,70% 11,50% 16,70% 0,40%
2007 19,90% 52,80% 11,00% 15,90% 0,40%
2008 23,90% 51,20% 10,60% 13,90% 0,30%
2009 21,20% 49,40% 13,70% 15,20% 0,50%
2010 20,70% 50,10% 13,30% 15,50% 0,30%
2011 22,50% 49,40% 12,30% 15,50% 0,30%
2012 25,40% 48,50% 11,30% 14,30% 0,40%
2013 22,20% 50,80% 12,10% 14,60% 0,30% 6%
2014 22,70% 50,30% 12,00% 14,90% 0,20% 3%
2015 18,30% 50,90% 13,80% 16,80% 0,20% 2%
2016 13,70% 53,90% 14,10% 18,10% 0,20% 3%
2017 15,90% 57,40% 12,20% 14,20% 0,30% 7%
2018 19,30% 57,00% 10,30% 13,10% 0,40% 5%
2019 20,30% 57,60% 9,10% 12,70% 0,30% 6%
2020 13,18% 61,08% 10,99% 14,49% 0,26% 11%
2021 18,68% 58,75% 9,19% 13,24% 0,14% 2%
Breakdown of Turkish Exports
Throughout Years (Million USD)
EXPORT SHARES OF INDUSTRIES (Million USD)
Year Total Export Share of Agriculture (%) Share of Mining (%) Manufacturing Industry (%)
1998 26.974 8,7 1,3 89,2
1999 26.587 7,7 1,4 90,1
2000 27.775 6 1,4 91,9
2001 31.334 6,3 1,1 92
2002 36.059 4,9 1,1 93,5
2003 47.253 4,5 1 93,9
2004 63.167 4 1 94,3
2005 73.476 4,5 1,1 93,7
2006 85.535 4,1 1,3 93,8
2007 107.272 3,5 1,5 94,2
2008 132.027 3 1,6 94,8
2009 102.143 4,3 1,6 93,4
2010 113.883 4,3 2,4 92,6
2011 134.907 3,8 2,1 93,4
2012 152.462 3,4 2,1 93,9
2013 151.803 3,7 2,6 93,1
2014 157.610 3,8 2,2 93,3
2015 143.839 4 1,9 93,4
2016 142.530 3,8 1,9 93,7
2017 157.055 3,4 2,2 93,7
2018 177.169 3,3 1,8 94,9
2019 180.835 3,1 1,8 95,1
2020 169.638 3,5 1,7 94,8
2021 225.222 3,2 1,8 95,0

Source: TURKSTAT
8
Savings-investment gap (With old series)

Current Account Current Account Savings-

Balance (Billion Balance (% of Investment Gap
Year GDP Growth (%) US$) GDP) (% of GDP)
1998 7,5 2 0,70 2,10
1999 -3,4 -0,9 -0,40 1,60
2000 6,6 -9,9 -3,70 -1,40
2001 6,0 3,8 1,90 2,70
2002 6,4 -0,6 -0,30 2,10
2003 5,6 -7,6 -2,50 -0,90
2004 9,6 -14,2 -3,60 -3,90
2005 9,0 -21,4 -4,50 -3,80
2006 7,1 -31,8 -6,00 -4,70
2007 5,0 -37,8 -5,80 -4,80
2008 0,8 -40,4 -5,40 -2,90
2009 -4,7 -12,1 -2,00 -1,00
2010 8,5 -45,4 -6,20 -3,60
2011 11,1 -75,1 -9,70 -5,60
2012 4,8 -48,5 -6,20 -4,50
2013 8,5 -65,1 -7,90 -5,30

Source: Türkiye Küresel Büyüme Modeli (2015) – Metin ERCAN

27
Savings-investment gap
Turkey’s GDP growth, current account balance and savings-
investment gap
Current Account Current Account Savings-
Balance (Billion Balance (% of Investments Gap Savings (% of Investments (%
Year US$) GDP) GDP Growth (%) (% of GDP) GDP) of GDP)
1998 2,0 0,70 7,50 2,10 25,5 23,5
1999 -0,9 -0,40 -3,40 1,60 21,5 19,9
2000 -9,9 -3,70 6,60 -1,40 20,9 22,3
2001 3,8 1,90 6,00 2,70 20,7 18,1
2002 -0,6 -0,30 6,40 2,10 21,7 19,6
2003 -7,6 -2,50 5,60 -0,90 19,9 20,8
2004 -14,2 -3,60 9,60 -3,90 21,5 25,4
2005 -21,0 -4,20 9,00 -3,80 22,9 26,7
2006 -31,2 -5,70 7,10 -4,70 24,0 28,7
2007 -36,9 -5,50 5,00 -4,80 23,3 28,1
2008 -39,4 -5,20 0,80 -2,90 24,0 26,8
2009 -11,4 -1,80 -4,70 -1,00 21,4 22,4
2010 -44,6 -5,80 8,50 -3,60 21,3 24,9
2011 -74,4 -8,90 11,10 -5,60 22,5 28,1
2012 -48,0 -5,50 4,80 -4,50 22,8 27,3
2013 -64,3 -6,80 8,50 -5,30 23,2 28,5
2014 -44,9 -4,80 5,20 -4,50 24,4 28,9
2015 -32,4 -3,80 6,10 -5,00 24,8 29,7
2016 -31,5 -3,60 3,20 -4,90 24,5 29,3
2017 -46,6 -5,50 7,50 -5,10 25,5 30,6
2018 -28,2 -3,70 2,80 -3,90 27,0 30,9
2019 5,3 0,60 0,90 0,78 26,0 25,2
2020 -35,5 -4,70 1,80 -3,90 26,7 30,6
2021 -13,6 -1,96 11,00 -2,10 30,3 32,4

Source: Turkstat; IMF; Presidency of Turkey Undersecretariat of Strategy and Budget

28
SAVINGS, INVESTMENT AND CURRENT ACCOUNT
BALANCE BY COUNTRY GROUPS (% OF GDP)

11
 Export Unit Value Index of Turkey
200
• Export Unit Value Index is
180
an index calculated based
on the value change for a 160
kilogram of export in
comparison with the prior 140
year. 120

• According to the Turkish 100

Exporters’ Assembly (TIM)
80
data, average value for a
kilogram of export is 1,12 60
USD in Turkey as of 2019.
40

20

0
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Source: World Bank (2022)

Index Value
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Turkey 100,0 97,4 95,7 107,8 125,7 133,3 137,9 155,4 179,6 150,6 155,7 173,5 168,8 169,0 166,6 150,6 143,7 145,6 148,9 142,5 138,7

12
 High-technology exports of MINT Countries and World (% of
manufactured exports)
25

20

15

10

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Me xico Indonesia Nigeria Turkey Wo rld

Source: World Bank (2020)

13
Top 10 Destinations For Turkish
Exports
Top 10 Destinations for Turkish Exports Share Distribution of Top 10 Buyers of
(Thousand $) Turkish Exports in 2021
120 000 000

100 000 000

80 000 000

60 000 000

40 000 000

20 000 000

0
2021 (Thousand $)

GERMANY U.S.A UNITED KINGDOM

ITALY IRAQ SPAIN
FRANCE NETHERLANDS ISRAEL GERMANY U.S.A UNITED KINGDOM

RUSSIA TOTAL OF TOP 10 ITALY IRAQ SPAIN

FRANCE NETHERLANDS ISRAEL
RUSSIA Other

14
Top 10 Import Partners
Top 10 Origin for Turkish Imports in 2021 Share Distribution of Top 10 Origin for
(Thousand $) Turkish Imports in 2021
160 000 000

140 000 000

120 000 000

100 000 000

80 000 000

60 000 000

40 000 000

20 000 000

0
2021 (Thousand $)

CHINA RUSSIA GERMANY

U.S.A ITALY INDIA CHINA RUSSIA GERMANY U.S.A
FRANCE SOUTH KOREA SPAIN ITALY INDIA FRANCE SOUTH KOREA
BELGIUM TOTAL OF TOP 10 SPAIN BELGIUM Other

15
 Total Imports-Exports Table for
Turkey
TOP 20 Export Partners TOP 20 Import Partners
% Share in % Share in
COUNTRIES 2021 (Thousand $) total export COUNTRIES 2021 (Thousand $) total Import
GERMANY 19 311 845 8,6 CHINA 32 239 350 11,9
U.S.A 14 721 240 6,5 RUSSIA 28 959 361 10,7
UNITED GERMANY 21 726 146 8,0
6,1
KINGDOM 13 704 179 U.S.A 13 148 139 4,8
ITALY 11 473 784 5,1 ITALY 11 561 839 4,3
IRAQ 11 127 367 4,9 INDIA 7 936 138 2,9
SPAIN 9 620 485 4,3 FRANCE 7 931 526 2,9
FRANCE 9 110 926 4,0 SOUTH KOREA 7 597 084 2,8
NETHERLANDS 6 767 104 3,0 SPAIN 6 311 608 2,3
ISRAEL 6 355 861 2,8 BELGIUM 5 628 382 2,1
RUSSIA 5 774 703 2,6 UNITED
U.A.E 5 493 406 2,4 KINGDOM 5 558 190 2,0
ROMANIA 5 175 978 2,3 UKRAINE 4 524 675 1,7
BELGIUM 4 899 375 2,2 NETHERLANDS 4 508 356 1,7
POLAND 4 673 956 2,1 JAPAN 4 389 292 1,6
EGYPT 4 513 690 2,0 BRAZIL 3 827 076 1,4
BULGARIA 3 953 793 1,8 POLAND 3 635 848 1,3
CHINA 3 662 756 1,6 SAUDIA ARABIA 3 456 398 1,3
GREECE 3 118 012 1,4 ROMANIA 3 434 433 1,3
MOROCCO 2 976 858 1,3 MALAYSIA 3 098 059 1,1
UKRAINE 2 900 734 1,3 SWITZERLAND 3 054 869 1,1
Other 75 885 933 52,1 Other 88 896 530 49,4
TOTAL OF TOP 10 107.967.493 47,9 TOTAL OF TOP 10 143.039.574 50,6
TOTAL Of TOP 20 149.336.049 66,3 TOTAL OF TOP 20 182.526.771 67,2
TOTAL GENERAL 225 221 982 100,0 TOTAL GENERAL 271 423 300 100,0

16
 Gross External Debt of Turkey
PUBLIC SECTOR CBRT PRIVATE SECTOR
GROSS GROSS
SHOR
(Million SHORT LONG LONG SHORT LONG EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT
TOTAL T TOTAL TOTAL
USD) TERM TERM TERM TERM TERM STOCK STOCK / GDP (%)
(I) TERM (II) (III)
(*) (I+II+III) (**)

2011 Q4 8.564 87.266 95.830 1.239 8.095 9.334 73.314 126.324 199.638 304.802 36,4
2012 Q4 13.324 92.982 106.306 1.036 6.052 7.088 88.083 140.090 228.173 341.568 38,9
2013 Q4 20.596 98.339 118.935 833 4.401 5.234 114.034 156.249 270.283 394.452 41,2
2014 Q4 21.447 99.821 121.268 342 2.142 2.484 115.232 167.986 283.218 406.970 43,3
2015 Q4 18.064 98.574 116.638 176 1.151 1.327 87.057 194.159 281.216 399.182 46,0
2016 Q4 19.720 103.604 123.324 399 711 1.110 81.118 202.529 283.647 408.081 46,9
2017 Q4 22.111 114.061 136.172 1.753 8 1.761 96.302 219.561 315.863 453.796 52,8
2018 Q4 22.485 117.371 139.856 5.914 8 5.922 89.019 207.775 296.794 442.573 55,5
2019 Q4
21.699 137.789 159.488 8.413 0 8.413 66.621 181.891 248.512 416.413 54,8
(***)
2020 Q4
23.257 152.997 176.254 21.382 0 21.382 69.634 165.829 235.463 433.099 60,4
(****)
2021 Q4
22,219 158,320 180,539 26,052 0 26,052 70,801 161,870 232,671 439,262 54.4
(****)
2022 Q1
24,848 158,566 183,414 29,812 0 29,812 74,007 159,902 233,909 447,134 56.0
(****)
2022 Q2
24,846 154,679 179,525 29,428 0 29,428 78,827 154,134 232,961 441,915 53.3
(****)
2022 Q3
26,038 147,859 173,897 31,975 0 31,975 79,559 154,114 233,673 439,545 52.1
(****)
2022 Q4
28,895 157,968 186,863 32,790 0 32,790 85,941 153,437 239,378 459,031 50.7
(****)
(***) In accordance with the Presidency Decision dated December 4th, 2019 and numbered 1814, the foreign debt data of
VakıfBank started to be classified under public sector classification as of 2019 Q4.
(****) Public Sector Classification has been updated as of the first quarter of 2020 within the scope of the "Statistical Classification
Regulation" published in the Official Newspaper No. 31022 (repeated) dated 28 January 2020.

Source: T.R. Ministry of Treasury and Finance