Centrum Route Mobile Initiating Coverage
Centrum Route Mobile Initiating Coverage
Centrum Route Mobile Initiating Coverage
Institutional Research
India I IT Services
17 August, 2022
Route Mobile (ROUTE) is a fast-growing Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) Market Data
company. Route’s core product (approximately 85% of revenues) is its SMS-based Bloomberg: ROUTE IN
product, through which Route’s clients can offer services such as 2-factor 52 week H/L: 2,389/1,052
authentication, bank transaction updates, e-commerce delivery updates, etc. to their Market cap: Rs93.0bn
end-customers via SMS. Route has a marquee client list including Facebook, Google, Shares Outstanding: 62.8mn
ICICI Bank, etc. Route’s revenues have grown at a 5-year CAGR of 34%, driven by rising
Free float: 40.2%
digital adoption and aided by several acquisitions. The overall CPaaS industry is
Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 556,558
expected to grow at 31% CAGR for the next 5 years, and Route’s focus on fast-growing Source: Bloomberg
geographies & acquisitions should enable it to grow faster than the market. After
ROUTE relative to Nifty Midcap 100
raising Rs8,675mn via a QIP in September 2021, Route has made acquisitions worth
Rs5,310mn over the past 6 months and has cash reserves of over Rs10,000mn for 125
Nifty Midcap 100
further acquisitions. The company is also returning cash to shareholders via dividends
100
& buybacks. We expect revenues/EBITDA/PAT to grow at 41%/52%/41% over FY22-
24E and value Route Mobile at 33x FY24 EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs1,733 with 75
ROUTE
Thesis Snapshot
Centrum vs. consensus Valuations
Centrum Consensus Variance Centrum Consensus Variance We initiate with a BUY rating with a target price of Rs1,733. Our target
YE Mar (Rs mn)
FY23E FY23E (%) FY24E FY24E (%) multiple of 33x is below the company’s average P/E multiple
Revenue 31,677 29,800 6% 39,763 36,021 10%
Valuations Rs/share
EBITDA 3,601 3,356 7% 4,858 4,339 12%
FY24E EPS 52.5
PBT 3,025 2,860 6% 4,111 3,820 8%
Target Multiple (x) 33.0
PAT 2,559 2,352 9% 3,371 3,113 8%
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking Target Price 1,733
P/E mean and standard deviation
Route Mobile versus NIFTY Midcap 100 80
1m 6m 1 year 70
ROUTE IN 13.5 (5.6) (24.2)
60
NIFTY Midcap 100 11.6 7.0 13.3
50
Source: Bloomberg,
40
Key assumptions 30
YE Mar FY23 FY24E 20
May-22
Jan-22
Oct-21
Dec-20
Jul-21
Apr-21
Sep-20
Aug-22
Revenue 31,677 39,763
EBITDA Margins 11.4% 12.2%
PAT 2,499 3,294
Source: Centrum Broking
P/E Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation
50
40
30
20
10
May-22
Jan-22
Oct-21
Dec-20
Jul-21
Apr-21
Sep-20
Aug-22
EV/EBITDA Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Peer comparison
CAGR (FY22-24E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY22A
Mkt Cap
Company
(Rs bn)
Sales EBITDA EPS FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E RoE (%) ROCE (%) Div. Yield
Route Mobile 0.9 42% 46% 37% 53.3 37.0 28.2 48.8 26.2 17.3 14% 15% 1%
Tanla Platforms 1.0 20% 17% 14% 38.4 18.3 14.3 28.4 13.4 9.7 48% 47% 0%
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Industry Overview
The Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) industry is currently a global business of
$8.6bn and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31% yoy. SMS technology dominates the
market while newer technologies such as RCS, OTT, etc. are rapidly gaining market share.
North America continues to be the key market for the products. The key players in the
business are Twillio and Sinch along with Route Mobile & Tanla in India. The industry has
seen significant consolidation over the past 2 years with 46 acquisitions being made since
2020.
Corporations across the world routinely use CPaaS platforms for several use-cases such
as sending an OTP via SMS to complete an online transaction, sending flight tickets to
travellers via WhatsApp or generating an automated email to reset a password.
Covid-19 was fundamental to the transformation of the industry as e-commerce, food
delivery and online transactions grew exponentially even as some key CPaaS end-use
industries such as the travel industry declined. The CPaaS industry has grown by 41%
CAGR over the past 2 years from $4.3bn in 2019 to $8.6bn in 2021, and is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 31% over the next 5 years to reach a size of $34.2bn.
30
25
20
15
US$ 8.7 bn
10
0
2021 2026
The industry is dominated by SMS transactions which make up 95% of all CPaaS
communication today. However, communication via Rich Communication Services
(RCS) and OTT channels such as WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram, etc. are rising rapidly and
expected to gain a larger share of the pie in the future.
Over the past few years, the industry has seen growing consolidation as the top players
acquired smaller players to penetrate newer markets and niche technologies in order
to grow. The industry is also seeing new entrants with Ericsson acquiring Vonage and
Cisco acquiring IMIMobile. Two large global players – Twilio and Sinch have also made
acquisitions to enter the Indian market with their acquisitions of Valuefirst and ACL
respectively.
Exhibit 6: Global CPaaS M&A, 2020 Onwards
Number of
Company Companies acquired
acquisitions
Cisco Systems Inc 1 Imimobile Ltd
CM.com NV 6 CX Co, Paid Group BV, Building Blocks BV, Robin Software BV, Your Ticket Provider BV, TraceDock BV
Route Mobile Ltd 6 Masivian SAS, MR Messaging FZC, Interteleco, SendClean, TeleDNA, Teledgers Technology Pvt Ltd
Mailgun Technologies Inc, Message4u Pty Ltd, Inteliquent Inc, Digital interconnect business, Wavy Global
Sinch AB 7
Holdings BV, ACL Mobile Ltd, MessengerPeople GmbH
Ericsson 1 Vonage Holdings Corp
Segment.io Inc, Zipwhip Inc, Boku Identity Inc, Teravoz Telecom Telecomunicacoes Ltda, Ionic Security
Twilio Inc 6
Inc, Valuefirst Digital Media Pvt Ltd
Vonage Holdings Corp 2 Kotak Network Pte Ltd, Jumper AI Pte Ltd
Total 46
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
In terms of competition, established leaders in the field include Route, Infobip, Sinch &
IMIMobile (Cisco) where the products have extensive breadth & depth along with
strong capabilities.
Exhibit 7: Competitive positioning for CPaaS vendors
The company’s estimates that 85% of its revenues come from the SMS business, while
new products (voice, e-mail, OTT) contribute 5%. The remaining sources of revenues
are from the sale of services to Mobile Network Operators (5%), and a customer
support center operations (5%) both of which have been inorganically acquired by
Route Mobile.
Route earns revenues from its customers on a per transaction basis. Transaction rates
are determined at the beginning of the contract but are not locked-in and change from
time-to-time. For SMS-based revenues, Route Mobile has tie-ups with 250+ mobile-
network operators who also charge a fixed fee to Route Mobile on a per-transaction
basis.
Route has a diversified clientele consisting of digital enterprises such as Facebook &
Google who use Route for carrying out 2-factor authentication in India, financial
institutions such as SBI & ICICI and new-age internet companies such as PayTM and
Policybazaar.
The key market geographically is India, which accounts for 47% of all revenues. The
company is also rapidly expanding inorganically into newer geographies such as Europe
& South Africa (via the MR Messaging acquisition), as well as Latin America (via the
Masivian acquisition).
Europe
6%
India
Middle East 47%
Africa
7%
10%
Asia (ex-India)
16%
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Covid-19 acted as a tailwind for Route and resulted in strong growth for its customer
base as digital transaction volume increased. Further, Route has seen growth in its
client base and the number of high value clients has also increased.
Exhibit 10: Number of clients by account size for Route Mobile
25
21
20
15
15
11
10 8
7
4 4
5 3 3 3
2 2 2
1 1
- - -
0
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Route’s largest clients are global digital companies including Facebook & Google. The
company’s top client is responsible for 13% of its revenues while the top 5 clients
account for 42% of revenues for the company. The company’s dependence on its top
client has reduced from 23% of revenues in FY19 to 13% in FY22.
Exhibit 11: Client concentration for Route Mobile
100%
86% 86%
82% 80%
80%
59%
60% 54% 54% 54% 52%
43% 44% 45% 42%
36%
40%
25% 23%
19%
20% 15% 13%
6%
0%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Route Mobile was founded as RouteSMS in 2004 in Mumbai, and has been in operation
for over 19 years. The company has grown rapidly and processed over 52 billion
transactions in FY22; it has 29 offices and 2,500+ active billable clients.
Exhibit 12: Route Mobile's history
Year Event
Investment Thesis
Increasing push towards digitalisation to drive revenue growth
Route’s revenue model is based on transaction-level pricing – and its revenue grows
from increasing adoption of digital transactions and the overall growth of its clientele.
Transactions have increased as e-commerce, financial transactions, and social media
penetration have all grown at a rapid rate in its key markets of India, Asia (ex-India) &
Africa.
Exhibit 13: Internet user base growth in India (mn) Exhibit 14: Volume of digital payment transactions in India
2019 2022 CAGR
(mn)
Source: Media Sources, Centrum Broking Source: Media Sources, Centrum Broking
Route Mobile’s transaction volume has grown in-line with the overall increase in
internet penetration in India. It is expected that increasing digital penetration and
higher volume of transactions in India will drive further growth for Route Mobile and
its customers.
Internet penetration in developing countries including LatAm & Asia is high, resulting
in increased opportunities for value creation. Route Mobile is well positioned to take
market share in these regions via acquisitions.
Transaction volume at Route Mobile has increased exponentially in-line with growing
internet adoption globally with services such as 2-factor authentication for social
networks or online e-commerce transactions gaining prominence. Transaction volume
processed by Route has increased from 20.8bn transactions/year in FY18 to 52bn
transactions/year in FY22.
40.0
32.3
30.0
30.0
24.5
20.8
20.0
10.0
-
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Moving forward, Route expects significant growth to come from the new products
business as corporations become more comfortable with newer technologies and
adoption rates increase. Route has guided for the new products business to grow at
100%+ for FY23E. Route expects the new products business to constitute 25%+ of their
revenues over the medium term. Gross margins for new products such as Email & voice-
based products are typically higher than the traditional SMS based business and this
should drive gross margin improvement in the medium term.
Exhibit 18: Indicative gross margin for new products Exhibit 19: New product contribution to revenues
New product sales (INR mn)
New product sales as a percentage of revenues
400 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 6.0%
3.8% 5.0%
300 3.6%
3.0% 4.0%
2.5% 2.8%
200 3.0%
1.6%
2.0%
100
1.0%
0 0.0%
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Source: Twilio, Centrum Broking Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Route has also made several acquisitions over the past few years, in-line with
international peers. As the CPaaS industry moves towards a consolidation phase,
existing players like Route stand to benefit both from leveraging operational synergies
as well as from reduced competition in the market.
Exhibit 20: Route Mobile acquisitions
Company Size of acquisition (INR mn) Date Description
Cellent Technologies 112.7 Sep-16 Entry into Middle-East market (geographical expansion)
With the recent acquisitions, Route has entered lucrative, under-penetrated markets
such as LATAM & Europe. The drive to enter newer geographies will continue to boost
growth in the medium term. Gross margins in areas such as LATAM/Europe are also
higher than the Indian markets and this should further drive revenue growth for the
companies.
Margin improvements will likely be driven by increasing penetration into newer
geographies as well as newer technologies. For example, the recent acquisition of
Masivian enables it to penetrate the Latin American markets where gross margins are
40%+. Similarly, technologies like email & voice are relatively high margin, despite
lower revenue per transaction. Route is currently guiding for a 40% gross margin for
new products which is double the existing gross margins.
Digital native
Others 20%
26%
The company includes marquee names like Facebook & Google as well as financial
services such as ICICI Bank, SBI as well as Internet names like PayTM, PolicyBazaar, etc.
At the same time, Route continues to have deep relationships with key clients including
MNOs as it aims to deepen its existing relationships.
Exhibit 22: Key relationships Route Mobile
Route continues to add top-tier clients as it increasingly penetrates newer markets &
geographies. The company has tie-ups with 265+ Mobile Network Operators (MNOs),
which is key in ensuring growth for the company. This in-turn allows Route to gain
access to 900+ MNOs globally. Route has also developed an MNO business which aims
to provide services to MNOs including firewall services and this also enables Route to
develop deeper relationships with MNOs.
Financial Analysis
Route has shown rapid growth in revenues with a 5-year CAGR of 34.2% over FY17-22
driven by robust organic as well as inorganic growth. Margins have stayed constant as
the company focuses on profitable growth and expansion.
Exhibit 24: Revenue (Rs mn) has grown at 34.2% CAGR Exhibit 25: EBITDA Margins are constant since FY19
15% 14.2%
20,221
14%
13% 12.4%
14,222
12%
9,681 10.9%
8,524 11% 10.5%
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
Route Mobile’s revenues have primarily been from the sale of SMS services, with newer
products accounting for 4.9% of sales. Route expects that over time, newer products
will account for over 25% of sales.
Exhibit 26: Revenue contribution from new products
6%
5.1%
4.9% 4.9%
5% 4.7% 4.7%
4.5% 4.6%
4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
5%
4% 3.8%
3.6%
4%
3.0%
3% 2.8%
2.5%
3%
2%
1.6%
2%
1%
Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23EQ3FY23EQ4FY23EQ1FY24EQ2FY24EQ3FY24EQ4FY24E
The company has completed two rounds of fundraising via an IPO in FY21 & a QIP in
FY22. Post these multiple rounds of fundraising, the company has a comfortable cash
position and can make further acquisitions if required. The company has also recently
announced a share buyback of Rs1,200mn to return cash to shareholders.
8000
6000
4677
4000
1621
2000 1109 1026 957 1026
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
-500
-1000
-1500
Cash conversion cycle has been stable – Route Mobile’s cash conversion cycle has
largely stable as the company has grown. Net working capital has increased in line with
the increase in the company’s revenues. The decline in the net working capital for FY22
has been due to acquisitions and is expected to correct moving forward.
100 500
90
-
80
70 (500)
60 (1,000)
50
40 (1,500)
30 (2,000)
20
(2,500)
10
0 (3,000)
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Given the comfortable debt position, low capex and low working capital requirements,
EBITDA-to-OCF & PAT-to-OCF ratio for Route Mobile has been high. Ratios have been
temporarily affected due to the large number of acquisitions that the company has
made in FY22. However, PAT-to-OCF & EBITDA-to-OCF conversion is expected to revert
to high levels again moving forward. Route is guiding for OCF conversion in the range
of 70-75% for FY23.
260.6%
300%
204.4%
172.8%
250%
160.6%
131.8%
200%
93.5%
79.1%
150%
61.5%
59.1%
41.1%
39.3%
26.4%
100%
50%
0%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
-50%
-100%
-74.6%
-99.3%
-150%
FCF generation has been strong and the company has been generating consistently high
free cash flow since FY20. FCF generation is expected to continue moving forward since
the company’s business model requires limited capex.
Exhibit 31: FCF generation has stayed strong
2500
OCF Capex FCF
2000
1500
1000
500
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
-500
-1000
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
RoE for the company has generally stayed at 25%+ for several years. The recent dip in
RoE has been due to high cash infusion post the QIP and it should improve as the
company makes further acquisitions over the next few years which will reduce the cash
balance and improve PAT levels moving forward.
Exhibit 32: RoE has been 20%+
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Valuation
Post a 38% correction in share price, Route Mobile currently trades at 28x FY24 EPS.
Due to its strong revenue growth (both organic & inorganic), consistent track record of
profitability, and high return on equity, we value Route at 33x FY24 EPS giving a share
price of Rs 1,733. Initiate with a BUY rating.
Listed players in the CPaaS industry are all at varying stages of maturity in the cycle and
thus trade at very different valuations. The largest listed player is Twilio, which has seen
strong revenue growth but is struggling for profitability. Among other global players,
Sinch has been impacted by the valuation correction in technology stocks along with
significant short-selling following corporate governance concerns. The top industry
players are expected to grow at 30%+ revenue CAGR over the next two years in-line
with overall industry growth. Increasing industry consolidation and maturity is also
resulting in improvement in profitability. Twilio and Vonage which have been loss
making for several years are gradually moving towards profitability. Twilio is expected
to become profitable in CY23 while Vonage is expected to reach profitability in CY22.
However, Route Mobile’s performance has been superior to most listed global players
in terms of RoE, Sales growth and PAT Margins.
Sinch 1.9 38% 105% 8% 89.2 14.5 10.6 123.1 11.7 8.7 5.0 0.7 0.6 4.4%
Tanla 1.3 20% 17% 14% 38.4 18.3 14.3 28.4 13.4 9.7 6.5 2.6 2.2 48.0%
Route 1.2 41% 52% 8% 55.4 34.8 24.8 48.8 26.2 17.3 4.6 2.3 1.9 14.3%
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking, FY21 refers to FY22 for Route & Tanla Platforms
Globally, the CPaaS industry has seen a significant valuation correction in 2022 as
monetary tightening impacted the valuation of technology stocks across the listed
universe. The impact has been felt in both international & domestic markets as
valuations have corrected significantly. However, any improvement in the
macroeconomic climate could result in valuations improving for the sector as a whole.
Risks
Increasing competition in the sector from new entrants
Globally slowing pace of digital transactions
Further valuation declines in technology stocks
Sammy Mamdani heads RML’s global Operations, and is responsible for day-to-day
management and coordination between worldwide offices. With over 18 years of
international experience, Sammy has successfully held senior positions at Protiviti’s
(formerly Andersen Consulting) Business Risk division in the U.S. as well as a private
investment firm based out of Mumbai, where he managed diverse business units in
India and the UAE. Most recently, Sammy served as C.O.O at Cellent Technologies
(India) Private Limited, which was acquired by Route Mobile in August 2016. He holds
an MBA from the University of Central Florida.
Elsa Shibu heads the People Management Function at Route Mobile. She has over 19+
years of work experience in the people management function. She started her career
with Lintas while at college. She pursued a career into the people management function
with KPMG and then went on to work with Tata Donnelley’s, UPS, Ugam Solutions and
Euronet Worldwide. She has a mixed bag of exposure to Indian companies and MNCs
as well as various industry sectors. She holds a degree in Economics from St Xavier’s
College Mumbai.
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As per the declarations given by him, Mr. Moez Chandani, research analyst and and/or any of their family members do not serve as an officer, director or any
way connected to the company/companies mentioned in this report. Further, as declared by them, they are not received any compensation from the above
companies in the preceding twelve months. They do not hold any shares by them or through their relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to do
any transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report. Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid a salary.
They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason to know at the
time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance.
While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Centrum, its associated companies, their directors and employees are
under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrum from
doing so.
Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulations and/or Centrum policies, in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or any certain other circumstances.
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Centrum
Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an
offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person
unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in
Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any
manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly
authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and
Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market.
Ratings definitions
Our ratings denote the following 12-month forecast returns:
Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
Add – The stock is expected to return 5-15%.
Reduce – The stock is expected to deliver -5-+5% returns.
Sell – The stock is expected to deliver <-5% returns.
Route Mobile
Source: Bloomberg
1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
Route Mobile
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month
No
immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest No
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which
No
such compensation is received
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the
No
research report
9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No
10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. No
11 Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; No
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
12 No
in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
13 No
services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469
Website: www.centrum.co.in
Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in