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Centrum Route Mobile Initiating Coverage

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Initiating Coverage

Institutional Research
India I IT Services
17 August, 2022

Route Mobile BUY


Price: Rs1,481
Increasing digital adoption driving strong growth Target Price: Rs1,733
Forecast return: 17%

Route Mobile (ROUTE) is a fast-growing Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) Market Data
company. Route’s core product (approximately 85% of revenues) is its SMS-based Bloomberg: ROUTE IN
product, through which Route’s clients can offer services such as 2-factor 52 week H/L: 2,389/1,052
authentication, bank transaction updates, e-commerce delivery updates, etc. to their Market cap: Rs93.0bn
end-customers via SMS. Route has a marquee client list including Facebook, Google, Shares Outstanding: 62.8mn
ICICI Bank, etc. Route’s revenues have grown at a 5-year CAGR of 34%, driven by rising
Free float: 40.2%
digital adoption and aided by several acquisitions. The overall CPaaS industry is
Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 556,558
expected to grow at 31% CAGR for the next 5 years, and Route’s focus on fast-growing Source: Bloomberg
geographies & acquisitions should enable it to grow faster than the market. After
ROUTE relative to Nifty Midcap 100
raising Rs8,675mn via a QIP in September 2021, Route has made acquisitions worth
Rs5,310mn over the past 6 months and has cash reserves of over Rs10,000mn for 125
Nifty Midcap 100
further acquisitions. The company is also returning cash to shareholders via dividends
100
& buybacks. We expect revenues/EBITDA/PAT to grow at 41%/52%/41% over FY22-
24E and value Route Mobile at 33x FY24 EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs1,733 with 75
ROUTE

a 17% upside. Initiate with a BUY rating.


CPaaS is a fast-growing industry marked by rapid global consolidation 50
Aug-21 Nov-2 1 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22
The global CPaaS industry has seen rapid growth of 41% CAGR over the past 2 years
Source: Bloomberg
driven by increased digital adoption in key markets such as India (47% of Route Mobile
revenues). The industry is expected to grow at 31% CAGR over the next 5 years as new Shareholding pattern
CPaaS technologies (OTT, RCS, etc.) grow exponentially and digital adoption continues. Jun-22 Mar-22 Dec-21 Sep-21
The industry has also seen rapid consolidation with industry leaders making 46 Promoter 59.8 59.8 60.0 65.1
acquisitions since 2020. Telecommunication giants like Cisco & Ericsson have also FIIs 19.9 20.2 19.8 15.1
entered the market via large acquisitions further outlining industry attractiveness. DIIs 3.8 2.6 3.4 2.2
Public/other 16.5 17.4 16.9 17.7
Increasing number of digital transactions will drive organic growth for Route Mobile Source: BSE
Route Mobile earns revenue on a per-transaction basis, and benefits from increasing
number of digital transactions conducted by its clients’ end-customers. Transactions
handled by Route Mobile have increased from 20.8bn in FY18 to 52bn in FY22 (26%
CAGR). Increasing number of online transactions, growing awareness of security features
like 2 factor authentication, and higher e-commerce penetration should all drive revenue
growth for Route Mobile.
Acquisitions will drive Route Mobile’s entry into new business areas & geographies
Route has made several acquisitions over the past 6 months aimed at penetrating into
newer geographies. These acquisitions have helped Route expand its geographical
footprint in Latin America, Europe, South Africa and the Middle East. Continued focus on
newer geographies along with acquisitions focused on newer technologies will drive
further growth for Route Mobile.
Valuation at reasonable levels post a significant correction
In line with the global correction in technology stocks, Route Mobile has corrected 38%
from its all-time high and is currently valued at 28x FY24 EPS. Given the strong growth
visibility and profitability, we value Route at 33x FY24 EPS and arrive at a share price of
Rs1,733. Key risks to our thesis include increasing competition and valuation correction.

Financial and valuation summary


YE Mar (Rs mn) FY20A FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E
Revenues 9,563 14,062 20,020 31,677 39,763
EBITDA 1,000 1,741 2,186 3,601 4,858
EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 12.4 10.9 11.4 12.2
Adj. Net profit 733 1,333 1,662 2,499 3,294
Adj. EPS (Rs) 14.6 24.2 27.8 40.0 52.5
EPS growth (%) 28.7 65.5 14.8 43.9 31.2
IT Services

PE (x) 101.2 61.2 53.3 37.0 28.2


EV/EBITDA (x) 0.0 41.9 37.4 21.5 15.3
PBV (x) 27.5 12.5 5.3 5.2 4.7 Moez Chandani
RoE (%) 29.8 28.9 14.3 14.5 17.5 Research Analyst, IT Services
+91-42159364
RoCE (%) 25.5 28.1 15.0 15.8 18.9 moez.chandani@centrum.co.in
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Thesis Snapshot
Centrum vs. consensus Valuations
Centrum Consensus Variance Centrum Consensus Variance We initiate with a BUY rating with a target price of Rs1,733. Our target
YE Mar (Rs mn)
FY23E FY23E (%) FY24E FY24E (%) multiple of 33x is below the company’s average P/E multiple
Revenue 31,677 29,800 6% 39,763 36,021 10%
Valuations Rs/share
EBITDA 3,601 3,356 7% 4,858 4,339 12%
FY24E EPS 52.5
PBT 3,025 2,860 6% 4,111 3,820 8%
Target Multiple (x) 33.0
PAT 2,559 2,352 9% 3,371 3,113 8%
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking Target Price 1,733
P/E mean and standard deviation
Route Mobile versus NIFTY Midcap 100 80
1m 6m 1 year 70
ROUTE IN 13.5 (5.6) (24.2)
60
NIFTY Midcap 100 11.6 7.0 13.3
50
Source: Bloomberg,
40
Key assumptions 30
YE Mar FY23 FY24E 20

May-22
Jan-22
Oct-21
Dec-20

Jul-21
Apr-21
Sep-20

Aug-22
Revenue 31,677 39,763
EBITDA Margins 11.4% 12.2%
PAT 2,499 3,294
Source: Centrum Broking
P/E Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation
50

40

30

20

10

May-22
Jan-22
Oct-21
Dec-20

Jul-21
Apr-21
Sep-20

Aug-22
EV/EBITDA Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking

Peer comparison
CAGR (FY22-24E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY22A
Mkt Cap
Company
(Rs bn)
Sales EBITDA EPS FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E RoE (%) ROCE (%) Div. Yield

Route Mobile 0.9 42% 46% 37% 53.3 37.0 28.2 48.8 26.2 17.3 14% 15% 1%

Tanla Platforms 1.0 20% 17% 14% 38.4 18.3 14.3 28.4 13.4 9.7 48% 47% 0%
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 2


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Industry Overview
The Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) industry is currently a global business of
$8.6bn and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31% yoy. SMS technology dominates the
market while newer technologies such as RCS, OTT, etc. are rapidly gaining market share.
North America continues to be the key market for the products. The key players in the
business are Twillio and Sinch along with Route Mobile & Tanla in India. The industry has
seen significant consolidation over the past 2 years with 46 acquisitions being made since
2020.

CPaaS industry expected to grow at 31% CAGR


 CPaaS refers to Communication Platform as a Service – which is a cloud-based platform
to help enterprises add real-time communication channels to their product. CPaaS
essentially enables organizations to integrate different systems such as voice,
messaging, video, etc. into their existing service offering software using APIs and
enables easier customer communication.
Exhibit 1: CPaaS Use Cases

Source: Karix, Centrum Broking

 Corporations across the world routinely use CPaaS platforms for several use-cases such
as sending an OTP via SMS to complete an online transaction, sending flight tickets to
travellers via WhatsApp or generating an automated email to reset a password.
 Covid-19 was fundamental to the transformation of the industry as e-commerce, food
delivery and online transactions grew exponentially even as some key CPaaS end-use
industries such as the travel industry declined. The CPaaS industry has grown by 41%
CAGR over the past 2 years from $4.3bn in 2019 to $8.6bn in 2021, and is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 31% over the next 5 years to reach a size of $34.2bn.

Centrum Institutional Research 3


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 2: Size of CPaaS market


40
US$ 34.2 bn
35

30

25

20

15
US$ 8.7 bn
10

0
2021 2026

Source: Gartner, Centrum Broking

 The industry is dominated by SMS transactions which make up 95% of all CPaaS
communication today. However, communication via Rich Communication Services
(RCS) and OTT channels such as WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram, etc. are rising rapidly and
expected to gain a larger share of the pie in the future.

Exhibit 3: CPaaS market by technology

Source: Juniper, Centrum Broking

 Geographically, most business is driven by North American markets and that is


expected to continue moving forward. Indian markets currently constitute 1% of
revenues for the market and this is expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% moving forward.
Exhibit 4: CPaaS Revenue growth by region

Source: Juniper, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 4


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Crowded market with growing consolidation as the CPaaS


industry matures
 The CPaaS industry is highly fragmented with several players operating in the market
both internationally and in India. These players often operate within their small circle
of competence. Top players in the field include Twilio, Sinch, & Infobip while Tanla &
Route dominate the local Indian market.
Exhibit 5: Major CPaaS Players

Source: Gartner, Centrum Broking

 Over the past few years, the industry has seen growing consolidation as the top players
acquired smaller players to penetrate newer markets and niche technologies in order
to grow. The industry is also seeing new entrants with Ericsson acquiring Vonage and
Cisco acquiring IMIMobile. Two large global players – Twilio and Sinch have also made
acquisitions to enter the Indian market with their acquisitions of Valuefirst and ACL
respectively.
Exhibit 6: Global CPaaS M&A, 2020 Onwards
Number of
Company Companies acquired
acquisitions
Cisco Systems Inc 1 Imimobile Ltd

CM.com NV 6 CX Co, Paid Group BV, Building Blocks BV, Robin Software BV, Your Ticket Provider BV, TraceDock BV

Infobip Ltd 2 Peerless Network Inc, Shift Conference LLC

Kaleyra Inc 2 Mgage LLC, Bandyer Srl


Soprano Design Pty Ltd, Message Broadcast.com LLC, Tismi BV, AMM SpA, MarketingPlatform ApS, AMM
LINK Mobility Group Holding ASA 9
SpA, Altiria TIC SL, Smsat Mobile Internet Services GmbH, Matelab Srl
MessageBird USA 3 Pusher Ltd, 24sessions.com BV, Hull Group Inc/The

Route Mobile Ltd 6 Masivian SAS, MR Messaging FZC, Interteleco, SendClean, TeleDNA, Teledgers Technology Pvt Ltd
Mailgun Technologies Inc, Message4u Pty Ltd, Inteliquent Inc, Digital interconnect business, Wavy Global
Sinch AB 7
Holdings BV, ACL Mobile Ltd, MessengerPeople GmbH
Ericsson 1 Vonage Holdings Corp
Segment.io Inc, Zipwhip Inc, Boku Identity Inc, Teravoz Telecom Telecomunicacoes Ltda, Ionic Security
Twilio Inc 6
Inc, Valuefirst Digital Media Pvt Ltd
Vonage Holdings Corp 2 Kotak Network Pte Ltd, Jumper AI Pte Ltd

Zenvia Inc 1 Movidesk Ltda

Total 46
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 5


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

 In terms of competition, established leaders in the field include Route, Infobip, Sinch &
IMIMobile (Cisco) where the products have extensive breadth & depth along with
strong capabilities.
Exhibit 7: Competitive positioning for CPaaS vendors

Source: Juniper, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 6


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Route Mobile – Omnichannel CPaaS Platform


 Route Mobile is an omni-channel CPaaS platform based out of Mumbai, India, which
provides communication services to traditional & new-age enterprises. The company’s
key products are in the SMS space where it provides organizations the ability to
communicate to customers for services such as 2 factor authentication, delivery
updates, bank account transactions, etc. via SMS.
Exhibit 8: Company offerings – Route Mobile

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 The company’s estimates that 85% of its revenues come from the SMS business, while
new products (voice, e-mail, OTT) contribute 5%. The remaining sources of revenues
are from the sale of services to Mobile Network Operators (5%), and a customer
support center operations (5%) both of which have been inorganically acquired by
Route Mobile.
 Route earns revenues from its customers on a per transaction basis. Transaction rates
are determined at the beginning of the contract but are not locked-in and change from
time-to-time. For SMS-based revenues, Route Mobile has tie-ups with 250+ mobile-
network operators who also charge a fixed fee to Route Mobile on a per-transaction
basis.
 Route has a diversified clientele consisting of digital enterprises such as Facebook &
Google who use Route for carrying out 2-factor authentication in India, financial
institutions such as SBI & ICICI and new-age internet companies such as PayTM and
Policybazaar.
 The key market geographically is India, which accounts for 47% of all revenues. The
company is also rapidly expanding inorganically into newer geographies such as Europe
& South Africa (via the MR Messaging acquisition), as well as Latin America (via the
Masivian acquisition).

Centrum Institutional Research 7


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 9: Geographic mix of revenues for Route Mobile


Non top 50
countries
9%
Americas
5%

Europe
6%
India
Middle East 47%
Africa
7%
10%

Asia (ex-India)
16%
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Covid-19 acted as a tailwind for Route and resulted in strong growth for its customer
base as digital transaction volume increased. Further, Route has seen growth in its
client base and the number of high value clients has also increased.
Exhibit 10: Number of clients by account size for Route Mobile

35 >$15 mn >$10 mn >$5 mn >$1mn


32
31
30

25
21
20
15
15
11
10 8
7
4 4
5 3 3 3
2 2 2
1 1
- - -
0
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Route’s largest clients are global digital companies including Facebook & Google. The
company’s top client is responsible for 13% of its revenues while the top 5 clients
account for 42% of revenues for the company. The company’s dependence on its top
client has reduced from 23% of revenues in FY19 to 13% in FY22.
Exhibit 11: Client concentration for Route Mobile

Top 1 Top 5 Top 10 Top 50

100%
86% 86%
82% 80%
80%
59%
60% 54% 54% 54% 52%
43% 44% 45% 42%
36%
40%
25% 23%
19%
20% 15% 13%
6%
0%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 8


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

 Route Mobile was founded as RouteSMS in 2004 in Mumbai, and has been in operation
for over 19 years. The company has grown rapidly and processed over 52 billion
transactions in FY22; it has 29 offices and 2,500+ active billable clients.
Exhibit 12: Route Mobile's history
Year Event

2004  Founded as "RouteSMS Solutions Private Limited in Mumbai, India

2011  Inaugrated the 1st International Office in London, UK


 Launch of India Enterprise Division
2012
 Officially certified as a GSMA Open Solution Connectivity
2013  Business expansion in Dubai

2014  Business expansion in Nigeria


 Rebranding to Route Mobile Limited
 Ranked 6th in the Top Tier 1 A2P SMS Messaging Vendor as per the ROCCO Report 2016
2016
 Business expansion in Ghana & Singapore
 Acquisition of Cellent Technologies & Start Corp
 Business expansion in US & Kenya
2017
 Acquisitions of Call2Connect Pvt Limited and 365 Squared Ltf
2018  Business expansion in Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Uganda & Zambia
 Lists on Indian Stock exchanges
2020
 The only Asian company covered in Gartner's Market Guide for CPaaS
 Won 2 Golds in the Juniper Research Award for CPaaS Provider of the year and Best SMS
2021
Firewall 2021
 Acquired SendClean, Masivian, Interteleco & MR Messaging
2022  Won Gold at the 2022 Juniper Research Future Digital Awards For Telco Innovation In Rich
Communication Services (RCS)
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 9


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Investment Thesis
Increasing push towards digitalisation to drive revenue growth
 Route’s revenue model is based on transaction-level pricing – and its revenue grows
from increasing adoption of digital transactions and the overall growth of its clientele.
Transactions have increased as e-commerce, financial transactions, and social media
penetration have all grown at a rapid rate in its key markets of India, Asia (ex-India) &
Africa.
Exhibit 13: Internet user base growth in India (mn) Exhibit 14: Volume of digital payment transactions in India
2019 2022 CAGR
(mn)

Total Internet Users 560 658 5.5% FY18 20,720

Facebook 300 330 3.2% FY19 31,340

Whatsapp 400 530 9.8% FY20 45,720

Instagram 75 230 45.3% FY21 55,540

YouTube 265 467 20.8% FY22 81,930

Twitter 8 24 44.2% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Source: Media Sources, Centrum Broking Source: Media Sources, Centrum Broking

 Route Mobile’s transaction volume has grown in-line with the overall increase in
internet penetration in India. It is expected that increasing digital penetration and
higher volume of transactions in India will drive further growth for Route Mobile and
its customers.
 Internet penetration in developing countries including LatAm & Asia is high, resulting
in increased opportunities for value creation. Route Mobile is well positioned to take
market share in these regions via acquisitions.

Exhibit 15: Internet penetration by region


Region Internet Penetration
Latin America
Southern America 78%
Central America 70%
Caribbean 68%
Asia
Western Asia 74%
Eastern Asia 73%
South Eastern Asia 73%
Central Asia 67%
Southern Asia 46%
Africa
Southern Africa 68%
Northern Africa 64%
Western Africa 43%
Eastern Africa 26%
Middle Africa 25%
Source: Data Reportal, Centrum Broking

 Transaction volume at Route Mobile has increased exponentially in-line with growing
internet adoption globally with services such as 2-factor authentication for social
networks or online e-commerce transactions gaining prominence. Transaction volume
processed by Route has increased from 20.8bn transactions/year in FY18 to 52bn
transactions/year in FY22.

Centrum Institutional Research 10


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 16: Total transactions processed by Route Mobile (bn)


60.0
52.0
50.0

40.0
32.3
30.0
30.0
24.5
20.8
20.0

10.0

-
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

New technologies, new acquisitions & new geographies will


drive revenue growth & margin improvement
 Like most peers in the CPaaS industry, Route’s primary source of revenue is SMS
messaging driven CPaaS, which currently makes up 85% of revenues while new
products constitute 5%. New products consist of email, Whatsapp, RCS, Viber, FB
Messenger, Voice, etc. MNO clients and the call center business constitute 5% of the
business each.
Exhibit 17: Revenue per transaction for Route Mobile
Mode of communication Approximate realisation (in paisa)
Domestic SMS 10-12
International SMS 200-250
Email 1
Whatsapp 50
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Moving forward, Route expects significant growth to come from the new products
business as corporations become more comfortable with newer technologies and
adoption rates increase. Route has guided for the new products business to grow at
100%+ for FY23E. Route expects the new products business to constitute 25%+ of their
revenues over the medium term. Gross margins for new products such as Email & voice-
based products are typically higher than the traditional SMS based business and this
should drive gross margin improvement in the medium term.

Centrum Institutional Research 11


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 18: Indicative gross margin for new products Exhibit 19: New product contribution to revenues
New product sales (INR mn)
New product sales as a percentage of revenues
400 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 6.0%
3.8% 5.0%
300 3.6%
3.0% 4.0%
2.5% 2.8%
200 3.0%
1.6%
2.0%
100
1.0%
0 0.0%

Q1FY21

Q2FY21

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Q1FY23
Source: Twilio, Centrum Broking Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Route has also made several acquisitions over the past few years, in-line with
international peers. As the CPaaS industry moves towards a consolidation phase,
existing players like Route stand to benefit both from leveraging operational synergies
as well as from reduced competition in the market.
Exhibit 20: Route Mobile acquisitions
Company Size of acquisition (INR mn) Date Description
Cellent Technologies 112.7 Sep-16 Entry into Middle-East market (geographical expansion)

Start Corp 20 Sep-16 Expansion in India business

Call2Connect 56.6 Apr-17 Entry into call center market in India


365Squared 1,317.2 (EUR 19.09 mn) + earn-out payments Oct-17 Firewall solutions for MNOs
TeleDNA’s telecom operator business 120 Jul-20 Backward integration of MNO solution
Send Clean 262.5 + 40.0 (deferred consideration) Jul-21 Email communication platform
3,515 (US$ 47.5mn) + 185 (US$2.5mn) (deferred
Masvian Nov-21 Entry into LATAM market
consideration)
Interteleco 167.7 (KD 652,500) Dec-21 Entry into Kuwait market
1,627.9 (EUR 19.38 mn) + 1,564.1 (EUR 18.62
M.R. Messaging Mar-22 Entry into Europe & South Africa
mn) as deferred consideration
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 With the recent acquisitions, Route has entered lucrative, under-penetrated markets
such as LATAM & Europe. The drive to enter newer geographies will continue to boost
growth in the medium term. Gross margins in areas such as LATAM/Europe are also
higher than the Indian markets and this should further drive revenue growth for the
companies.
 Margin improvements will likely be driven by increasing penetration into newer
geographies as well as newer technologies. For example, the recent acquisition of
Masivian enables it to penetrate the Latin American markets where gross margins are
40%+. Similarly, technologies like email & voice are relatively high margin, despite
lower revenue per transaction. Route is currently guiding for a 40% gross margin for
new products which is double the existing gross margins.

Strong client base and partner relationships ensure that organic


revenue growth will remain strong
 Route’s client base is a mix of digital native companies, financial services, CPaaS
partners and retail & e-commerce initiatives. The company’s top clients include the
world’s top tech companies, ecommerce, as well as top telecom, retail and financial
services companies globally.

Centrum Institutional Research 12


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 21: Client mix for Route Mobile

Digital native
Others 20%
26%

Travel Financial services


1% 11%
Ecommerce
17%
Tier 1 CPaaS
partners
14%

Telecom and allied


Retail services
4% 7%
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 The company includes marquee names like Facebook & Google as well as financial
services such as ICICI Bank, SBI as well as Internet names like PayTM, PolicyBazaar, etc.
At the same time, Route continues to have deep relationships with key clients including
MNOs as it aims to deepen its existing relationships.
Exhibit 22: Key relationships Route Mobile

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Route continues to add top-tier clients as it increasingly penetrates newer markets &
geographies. The company has tie-ups with 265+ Mobile Network Operators (MNOs),
which is key in ensuring growth for the company. This in-turn allows Route to gain
access to 900+ MNOs globally. Route has also developed an MNO business which aims
to provide services to MNOs including firewall services and this also enables Route to
develop deeper relationships with MNOs.

Centrum Institutional Research 13


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 23: MNO connects for Route Mobile

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 14


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Financial Analysis
 Route has shown rapid growth in revenues with a 5-year CAGR of 34.2% over FY17-22
driven by robust organic as well as inorganic growth. Margins have stayed constant as
the company focuses on profitable growth and expansion.
Exhibit 24: Revenue (Rs mn) has grown at 34.2% CAGR Exhibit 25: EBITDA Margins are constant since FY19
15% 14.2%
20,221
14%
13% 12.4%
14,222
12%
9,681 10.9%
8,524 11% 10.5%

4,648 5,095 10% 10.2%


9%
8%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Route Mobile’s revenues have primarily been from the sale of SMS services, with newer
products accounting for 4.9% of sales. Route expects that over time, newer products
will account for over 25% of sales.
Exhibit 26: Revenue contribution from new products
6%
5.1%
4.9% 4.9%
5% 4.7% 4.7%
4.5% 4.6%
4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
5%

4% 3.8%
3.6%
4%
3.0%
3% 2.8%
2.5%
3%

2%
1.6%
2%

1%
Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23EQ3FY23EQ4FY23EQ1FY24EQ2FY24EQ3FY24EQ4FY24E

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 The company has completed two rounds of fundraising via an IPO in FY21 & a QIP in
FY22. Post these multiple rounds of fundraising, the company has a comfortable cash
position and can make further acquisitions if required. The company has also recently
announced a share buyback of Rs1,200mn to return cash to shareholders.

Centrum Institutional Research 15


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 27: Cash position is improving (Rs mn)


12000
10262
10000

8000

6000
4677

4000

1621
2000 1109 1026 957 1026

0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 16


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Cash Flow Analysis


 Cash generation for Route Mobile has remained robust with positive OCF generation
since FY18 with an increase in profitability. We expect that Route’s asset light business
model will continue to generate consistent OCF moving forward.

Exhibit 28: OCF generation has remained strong

OCF before WC Changes WC Changes OCF (Net of tax)


3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
-500

-1000

-1500

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Cash conversion cycle has been stable – Route Mobile’s cash conversion cycle has
largely stable as the company has grown. Net working capital has increased in line with
the increase in the company’s revenues. The decline in the net working capital for FY22
has been due to acquisitions and is expected to correct moving forward.

Exhibit 29: Cash conversion cycle has been volatile


Days sales outstanding Days of accounts payable Net Working capital (INR mn)

100 500
90
-
80
70 (500)
60 (1,000)
50
40 (1,500)

30 (2,000)
20
(2,500)
10
0 (3,000)
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 Given the comfortable debt position, low capex and low working capital requirements,
EBITDA-to-OCF & PAT-to-OCF ratio for Route Mobile has been high. Ratios have been
temporarily affected due to the large number of acquisitions that the company has
made in FY22. However, PAT-to-OCF & EBITDA-to-OCF conversion is expected to revert
to high levels again moving forward. Route is guiding for OCF conversion in the range
of 70-75% for FY23.

Centrum Institutional Research 17


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Exhibit 30: EBITDA-to-OCF and PAT-to-OCF conversion remains strong


EBITDA to OCF conversion PAT to OCF Conversion

260.6%
300%

204.4%

172.8%
250%

160.6%

131.8%
200%

93.5%

79.1%
150%

61.5%
59.1%

41.1%
39.3%

26.4%
100%
50%
0%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
-50%
-100%

-74.6%
-99.3%
-150%

Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

 FCF generation has been strong and the company has been generating consistently high
free cash flow since FY20. FCF generation is expected to continue moving forward since
the company’s business model requires limited capex.
Exhibit 31: FCF generation has stayed strong
2500
OCF Capex FCF

2000

1500

1000

500

0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
-500

-1000
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

 RoE for the company has generally stayed at 25%+ for several years. The recent dip in
RoE has been due to high cash infusion post the QIP and it should improve as the
company makes further acquisitions over the next few years which will reduce the cash
balance and improve PAT levels moving forward.
Exhibit 32: RoE has been 20%+

40% RoE RoCE RoIC

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 18


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Valuation
 Post a 38% correction in share price, Route Mobile currently trades at 28x FY24 EPS.
Due to its strong revenue growth (both organic & inorganic), consistent track record of
profitability, and high return on equity, we value Route at 33x FY24 EPS giving a share
price of Rs 1,733. Initiate with a BUY rating.
 Listed players in the CPaaS industry are all at varying stages of maturity in the cycle and
thus trade at very different valuations. The largest listed player is Twilio, which has seen
strong revenue growth but is struggling for profitability. Among other global players,
Sinch has been impacted by the valuation correction in technology stocks along with
significant short-selling following corporate governance concerns. The top industry
players are expected to grow at 30%+ revenue CAGR over the next two years in-line
with overall industry growth. Increasing industry consolidation and maturity is also
resulting in improvement in profitability. Twilio and Vonage which have been loss
making for several years are gradually moving towards profitability. Twilio is expected
to become profitable in CY23 while Vonage is expected to reach profitability in CY22.
However, Route Mobile’s performance has been superior to most listed global players
in terms of RoE, Sales growth and PAT Margins.

Exhibit 33: Comparison of global CPaaS players


Market Cap Sales CAGR EBITDA CAGR P/E Ratio EV/EBITDA P/S
Company PAT Margin RoE (%)
(USD bn) (FY21-23E) (FY21-23E)
FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E
Twilio 16.0 32% 18% -33% NA NA 940.4 NA 62.3 34.7 16.1 4.1 3.3 -9.8%

Sinch 1.9 38% 105% 8% 89.2 14.5 10.6 123.1 11.7 8.7 5.0 0.7 0.6 4.4%

Tanla 1.3 20% 17% 14% 38.4 18.3 14.3 28.4 13.4 9.7 6.5 2.6 2.2 48.0%

Route 1.2 41% 52% 8% 55.4 34.8 24.8 48.8 26.2 17.3 4.6 2.3 1.9 14.3%
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking, FY21 refers to FY22 for Route & Tanla Platforms

 Globally, the CPaaS industry has seen a significant valuation correction in 2022 as
monetary tightening impacted the valuation of technology stocks across the listed
universe. The impact has been felt in both international & domestic markets as
valuations have corrected significantly. However, any improvement in the
macroeconomic climate could result in valuations improving for the sector as a whole.

Risks
 Increasing competition in the sector from new entrants
 Globally slowing pace of digital transactions
 Further valuation declines in technology stocks

Centrum Institutional Research 19


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

P&L Balance sheet


YE Mar (Rs mn) FY20A FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E YE Mar (Rs mn) FY20A FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E
Revenues 9,563 14,062 20,020 31,677 39,763 Equity share capital 500 577 629 629 629
Operating Expense 7,642 11,291 15,825 24,532 30,716 Reserves & surplus 2,194 5,944 16,097 17,027 19,263
Employee cost 582 615 1,261 1,875 2,142 Shareholders fund 2,694 6,521 16,726 17,656 19,892
Others 339 416 748 1,668 2,047 Minority Interest (22) (27) 21 21 21
EBITDA 1,000 1,741 2,186 3,601 4,858 Total debt 411 34 0 0 0
Depreciation & Amortisation 227 258 383 834 994 Non Current Liabilities 79 139 163 163 163
EBIT 773 1,483 1,803 2,767 3,864 Def tax liab. (net) 5 3 651 651 651
Interest expenses 49 28 52 181 227 Total liabilities 3,166 6,671 17,560 18,491 20,726
Other income 118 160 201 439 475 Gross block 321 368 446 446 446
PBT 843 1,616 1,952 3,025 4,111 Less: acc. Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0
Taxes 112 288 251 465 740 Net block 321 368 446 446 446
Effective tax rate (%) 13.2 17.8 12.9 15.4 18.0 Capital WIP 0 11 0 0 0
PAT 732 1,328 1,701 2,559 3,371 Net fixed assets 1,756 1,939 9,523 8,960 8,305
Minority/Associates 1 6 (39) (60) (78) Non Current Assets 420 538 323 323 323
Recurring PAT 733 1,333 1,662 2,499 3,294 Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary items (149) 0 0 0 0 Inventories 0 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 584 1,333 1,662 2,499 3,294 Sundry debtors 2,037 2,173 4,871 6,339 7,663
Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,026 4,677 10,262 11,111 13,981
Ratios Loans & advances 0 0 0 0 0
YE Mar FY20A FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E
Other current assets 978 848 1,554 1,554 1,554
Growth (%) Trade payables 1,812 2,385 3,851 4,675 5,980
Revenue 13.2 47.1 42.4 58.2 25.5 Other current liab. 1,268 1,160 5,166 5,166 5,166
EBITDA 15.8 74.1 25.6 64.7 34.9
Provisions 8 5 10 10 10
Adj. EPS 28.7 65.5 14.8 43.9 31.2
Net current assets 952 4,147 7,660 9,153 12,043
Margins (%) Total assets 3,166 6,671 17,560 18,491 20,726
Gross 20.1 19.7 21.0 22.6 22.8
EBITDA 10.5 12.4 10.9 11.4 12.2 Cashflow
EBIT 8.1 10.5 9.0 8.7 9.7 YE Mar (Rs mn) FY20A FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E
Adjusted PAT 7.7 9.5 8.4 8.0 8.4 Profit Before Tax 694 1,615 1,952 3,083 4,111
Returns (%) Depreciation & Amortisation 227 258 383 834 994
ROE 29.8 28.9 14.3 14.5 17.5 Net Interest 15 (61) (120) (167) (167)
ROCE 25.5 28.1 15.0 15.8 18.9 Net Change – WC 209 627 (658) (645) (19)
ROIC 32.0 59.0 21.5 31.7 47.0 Direct taxes (179) (173) (450) (465) (740)
Turnover (days) Net cash from operations 935 2,294 1,346 2,695 4,233
Gross block turnover ratio (x) 29.8 38.2 44.9 71.1 89.2 Capital expenditure (72) (77) (171) (271) (340)
Debtors 66 55 64 65 64 Acquisitions, net (197) (646) (4,131) 0 0
Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 Investments 251 (1,590) (4,198) 0 0
Creditors 58 68 72 63 63 Others 21 52 115 0 0
Net working capital (3) (14) (47) (23) (18) Net cash from investing 2 (2,261) (8,385) (271) (340)
Solvency (x) FCF 937 34 (7,039) 2,423 3,893
Net debt-equity (0.2) (0.7) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) Issue of share capital 0 2,578 8,646 (1,200) 0
Interest coverage ratio 20.5 63.1 42.4 19.9 21.4 Increase/(decrease) in debt (416) (439) (86) 0 0
Net debt/EBITDA (0.6) (2.7) (4.7) (3.1) (2.9) Dividend paid (165) 0 (304) (375) (1,023)
Per share (Rs) Interest paid (42) (28) (19) 0 0
Adjusted EPS 14.6 24.2 27.8 40.0 52.5 Others 0 0 0 0 0
BVPS 53.9 118.5 280.0 282.8 317.2 Net cash from financing (623) 2,110 8,237 (1,575) (1,023)
CEPS 19.2 28.9 34.2 53.4 68.4 Net change in Cash 313 2,143 1,198 849 2,870
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 16.3 Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Dividend payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 31.1
Valuation (x)
P/E 101.2 61.2 53.3 37.0 28.2
P/BV 27.5 12.5 5.3 5.2 4.7
EV/EBITDA 0.0 41.9 37.4 21.5 15.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 20


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Appendix 1: Key Management Personnel


 Key management personnel for the company include –
 Mr. Sandip Gupta is the Chairman & Non-Executive Director of Route Mobile. He holds
a bachelor’s degree in commerce from Mumbai University. He is also a qualified
Chartered Accountant and a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India.
He is a SAP-certified solution consultant– Management and Financial Accounting.
Sandip is the Promoter of Route Mobile and has been associated with the company
since its inception. Before incorporating Route Mobile, he worked with
PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited, and Covansys (India) Private Limited. He has
over 20 years of experience in audit and accounts, business analysis, SAP configuration,
and software system consulting.
 Mr. Rajdip Gupta is the Managing Director and Group Chief Executive Officer of Route
Mobile. He holds a bachelor’s degree in science (physics) from Mumbai University and
master’s diploma in software engineering from Aptech Computer Education. He has
more than 20 years of experience in the field of software designing and development.
 Suresh Jankar is the Chief Financial Officer of Route Mobile. He holds a bachelor’s
degree in commerce from University of Pune and is qualified chartered accountant
from the Institute of Chartered Accounts of India. He has 25 years of experience in
finance sector. Prior to joining Route, he has worked with the Capricorn Lifestyle Private
Limited. He leads the finance and accounts team and is responsible for activities
pertaining to the accounts of Route Mobile
 Gautam Badalia is the Chief Strategy Officer of Route Mobile. He has over 14 years of
experience handling functions across strategy, investment banking, mergers and
acquisitions and structured finance. He is responsible for formulating corporate
strategies as well as its disciplined execution and leading various other strategic
initiatives, including M&A, transformation and cost reduction to support long term
growth of Route Mobile. Prior to joining Route Mobile, he has worked with YES Bank
Limited. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in business
administration (finance).
 John Owen is the Chief Executive Officer, Europe & Americas of Route Mobile (UK)
Limited. He brings over 30 years of international senior executive leadership experience
in leading global organizations. In his most recent role as the Group CEO at Mastek Ltd
he has transformed Mastek into a growth leader in digital transformation delivering
outstanding results. Prior to Mastek, John held senior executive roles in organizations
like Serco, HP, Sycamore Networks and Nortel.
 Tushar Agnihotri heads the India & APAC regions for Route Mobile and is responsible
for driving sales and operations for the India market. He holds a master’s degree in
business management from Bundelkhand University. He has 25 years of overall work
experience, with over 16 years of experience in the telecom sector. Prior to joining our
Company, he has worked with Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Limited, Reliance Jio
Infocomm Limited, Arvind Mills Limited, Kodak India Limited, Reliance Infocomm
Limited and Blowplast Limited.
 Sharad Kumar leads RML’s Middle East region and is responsible for building up Middle
East and Operations and expanding further into the Africa market. He holds a
bachelor’s degree in engineering (electronics and telecommunications) from University
of Mumbai and a post graduate certificate in business management from XLRI,
Jamshedpur and has over 17 years of experience in the telecom sector. Prior to joining
our Company, he has worked with Bharti Airtel Limited, Reliance Communications
Limited and the United Nations.
 Milind Pathak is Chief Business Officer at Route Mobile. He has 25 years of experience
in domestic and international markets with OnlineSales.ai, where he was the Chief
Revenue Officer, Milind has also worked with blue-chip organizations like
Paytm/Madhouse Mobile (GroupM), Comviva, Buongiorno etc. He has a Bachelor’s
Degree in Engineering from Maharashtra Institute of Technology and a Master’s Degree
in Business Administration from Jamnalal Bajaj Institute of Management Studies.

Centrum Institutional Research 21


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

 Sammy Mamdani heads RML’s global Operations, and is responsible for day-to-day
management and coordination between worldwide offices. With over 18 years of
international experience, Sammy has successfully held senior positions at Protiviti’s
(formerly Andersen Consulting) Business Risk division in the U.S. as well as a private
investment firm based out of Mumbai, where he managed diverse business units in
India and the UAE. Most recently, Sammy served as C.O.O at Cellent Technologies
(India) Private Limited, which was acquired by Route Mobile in August 2016. He holds
an MBA from the University of Central Florida.
 Elsa Shibu heads the People Management Function at Route Mobile. She has over 19+
years of work experience in the people management function. She started her career
with Lintas while at college. She pursued a career into the people management function
with KPMG and then went on to work with Tata Donnelley’s, UPS, Ugam Solutions and
Euronet Worldwide. She has a mixed bag of exposure to Indian companies and MNCs
as well as various industry sectors. She holds a degree in Economics from St Xavier’s
College Mumbai.

Centrum Institutional Research 22


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

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Centrum Institutional Research 23


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Broking and
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Route Mobile

Source: Bloomberg

Centrum Institutional Research 24


Route Mobile 17 August, 2022

Disclosure of Interest Statement

1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
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3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)

Route Mobile

4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No

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Centrum Institutional Research 25

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