DISCLAIMER

Risk Disclosure
Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor
could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be
lost without jeopardizing ones’ fnancial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for
trading and only those with suffcient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is
not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described
below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profts or
losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between
hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any
particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that
they are generally prepared with the beneft of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does
not involve fnancial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the
impact of fnancial risk of actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to
adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can
also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the
markets in general or to the implementation of any specifc trading program which cannot be
fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can
adversely affect trading results.

ALL INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT AN OFFER
OR A RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE FUTURES CONTRACTS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR FOREX.
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NOTICE

THE STATISTICS IN THIS REPORT ARE GENERATED USING MINUTE DATA FROM
DECEMBER 11, 2015 to JANUARY 17, 2022
INITIAL BALANCE
The Initial Balance (IB) is defned by the High and Low set during the First
Hour of trading during the Regular Trading Hours (RTH). For European
Equity indexes, 2 hours are considered (8am CET to 10am CET). This covers
the old Eurex futures open until the frst hour of equity trading has
completed. Results have shown this timeframe to be more statistically
signifcant.

The Initial Balance is essentially the support and resistance found during
the frst hour. This provides clues as to who is in the market as well as give
us a reference which carries statistical signifcance.

In this 15 min Candlestick chart, the Initial Balance is represented by the Gold dashed
lines.
In the following sections you can discover what the historical probabilities
are surrounding these initial Support & Resistance levels.
INITIAL BALANCE BREAK OUT

IB Both Broken 22.41%

IB None Broken 4.29%
Only 1 IB Broken 73.30%

Samples 1562
INITIAL BALANCE HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES

IB Broken 95.71%
IB High Broken 63.96%
IB Low Broken 54.16%
IB Both Broken 22.41%
IB None Broken 4.29%
Only 1 IB Broken 73.30%

Samples 1562

IB Broken: either the Initial Balance High, Low or even both were broken during the
Regular Trading Hours Session
IB High Broken: the Initial Balance High was broken during the Regular Trading Hours
Session
IB Low Broken: the Initial Balance Low was broken during the Regular Trading Hours
Session
IB Both Broken: the Initial Balance High & Low were broken during the Regular Trading
Hours Session
Only 1 IB Broken: Initial Balance High or Low was broken during the Regular Trading
Hours Session
Neutral Follow Neutral: When both Initial Balance High & Low were broken, probability of
the next RTH session to again break Initial Balance High & Low
SESSION CLOSE
In this section we will be looking at the Session closing price, compared to
other intraday levels like the Mid. The Session Mid is calculated as such:
(Session Low + Session High) / 2.
Both the Session Mid as the Day Mid can be plotted by the ChartSpots
Initial Balance indicator for NinjaTrader 8.

In this 15 min Candlestick chart, the Initial Balance High & Low are represented by the
Gold dashed lines, the Session High as the Green dashed line, the Session Low as the Red
dashed line and the Session Mid as the Blue dashed line. The Close for this day is circled
in black.
SESSION CLOSE HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES

Close Above IBH 35.21%

Close Below IBL 28.04%
Close Above IBH on 1 Side break 66.41%
Close Below IBL on 1 Side break 60.48%
Close Above Mid on 1 Side break 85.05%
Close Below Mid on 1 Side break 72.58%
Close inside Value Area 57.75%
Neutral Close inside IB 34.00%
Neutral Follow Neutral 26.86%

Samples 1562
MORE STATISTICS...
A lot more Statistics are available in our Premium NQ report! We
investigate important questions like:
1. How often do we have a Trend day?
2. In case of a Gap Up, what are the probabilities of testing prior session
price levels like, VPOC, Value Area High, … ?
3. What is an average Initial Balance Range? And how is this
distributed?
4. What are the 1 Minute Rotations looking like, what is considered a
normal rotation? Is there a difference for up and down rotations?
5. When we break the Initial Balance, How far do we typically go? What
is an average Range Extension, and how are they distributed?
6. …..

The Premium report contains:

• Over 30 pages
• More than 100 Statistics
• Clear Charts to illustrate and explain the Statistics

https://www.chartspots.com/nqpremium

The full Table of Contents of the Premium Report can be found on the next
page!
 TABLE OF CONTENTS OF PREMIUM REPORT
INITIAL BALANCE 5
INITIAL BALANCE BREAK OUT 6
INITIAL BALANCE HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES 7
RANGE DISTRIBUTION 8
RANGE EXTENSION 9
EXTENSION UP DISTRIBUTION 10
EXTENSION DOWN DISTRIBUTION 10
SESSION RANGE 11
SESSION CLOSE 12
SESSION CLOSE HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES 13
DAY TYPES 14
NORMAL DAY 14
NORMAL VARIATION DAY 15
TREND DAY 16
NEUTRAL DAY 17
HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES 18
HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES FOR EACH WEEKDAY 19
OVERNIGHT STATS 20
HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES 21
OPENING STATS 23
OPENING PRICE COMPARED TO PRIOR SESSION 23
OPEN ABOVE PRIOR SESSION (GAP UP) 24
OPEN BELOW PRIOR SESSION (GAP DOWN) 25
OPEN WITHIN PRIOR SESSION RANGE 26
OPENING PRICE COMPARED TO PRIOR VALUE AREA 27
OPEN IN RANGE, ABOVE PRIOR VALUE AREA 29
OPEN IN RANGE, BELOW PRIOR VALUE AREA 30
OPEN IN RANGE, WITHIN PRIOR VALUE AREA 31
VOLUME STATS 32
SESSION VOLUME DISTRIBUTION 32
OVERNIGHT VOLUME DISTRIBUTION 32
ROTATIONS 33
UP ROTATIONS DISTRIBUTION 34
DOWN ROTATIONS DISTRIBUTION 34
VPOC BASED STATS 35
VPOC LOCATION LINK TO INITIAL BALANCE BREAK 35
VPOC LOCATION LINK TO NEXT SESSION 35
OPENING RANGE STATS 36
OPENING RANGE HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES 36
OPENING RANGE DISTRIBUTION 37