BRIU Weekend Watch.01

September 11th, 2022
BusinessDay Weekend Watch/ Nigeria
Precious Ogbonna Ajumoke Babatunde-Lawal Oseghale Ihayere

Research & Data Analyst Research & Data Analyst Team Lead -BRIU
• Latest Currency performance shows Naira ranked 11th-worst in 2022 against the US
dollar
• Nigeria’s current Import-Export valuation
• Nigerian stock market outperforms major African stock markets for its Year-To-Date
(YTD) return
• Sectoral performance towards Nigeria’s foreign trade
• At a Glance: State-wide perspective on Motorcycle (Okada) impact
Latest Currency performance shows Naira ranked 11th-worst in 2022 against the US
dollar.
Source: NgnRates.com, BRIU
The Nigerian currency, the Naira, has been under intense exchange rate pressure as it
continuously depreciates against some major international currencies such as the dollar, pound,
and euro. As a result, it ranked 11th in the list of 19 worst performing currencies in the world
and fourth worst in Africa. More insights show that the naira has lost 48.87% of its value
against the US dollar compared to its value as at January 2020.
Consumers are also feeling the consequences through rising food and commodity costs, which
are growing more expensive, making them less affordable for even the lowest-income
households.
The falling currency makes it more expensive than ever for the average middle-income class
to continue supporting their children’s tuition. Even Nigerian parents who want to send their
children to foreign universities will be burdened with worry and uncertainty about when the
currency will be stable enough to send their children abroad.
On a larger scale, Nigeria could expect an increase in inflation, a decrease in foreign direct
investment, a decrease in government expenditure on infrastructure projects, and an increase
in graduate unemployment if drastic measures to restore the currency's value are not taken.
Nigeria’s current Import-Export valuation
Source: NBS,BRIU
At the end of the second quarter of 2022, Nigeria’s imports stood at N5.44 trillion, while
exports closed at N7.41 trillion. Accordingly, the import and export values grew by 50% and
80% from N3.57 trillion and N4.11 trillion earned in Q1 2020, just before the heat of the
pandemic that led to total lockdown in almost all countries around the world. Trades have
begun to grow now, although some windows of importation and exportation are still recovering
from the hit which the pandemic brought.
Our findings also show that the increase in Nigeria’s importation declined by 8% from the
previous quarter to the quarter in view, while export value grew by 4% from N7.10 trillion in
Q1 2022.
We attribute the decline in importation to the insecurity occurring in some northern parts of
Nigeria, which has constrained business owners from travelling, especially by train, since the
last incident, where many were feared dead and some kidnapped. However, importation also
declined in the corresponding quarter in 2021.
Furthermore, our analysis shows that the values of Nigeria’s imports and exports increased by
16% and 48%, respectively, from N4.69 trillion and N5.02 trillion in Q2 2022.
In addition, the total value of imports and exports in the last five years from 2018 to H22022.
In 2018; the import and export values were N13.17 trillion and N18.53 trillion in 2019; N16.96
trillion and N19.19 trillion in 2020; N12.70 trillion and N12.52 trillion in 2021; N20.84 and
N18.91 trillion in 2022; 11.34 trillion and N14.51 trillion.
The Nigerian stock market outperforms major African stock markets for its Year-To-
Date (YTD) return.
BRIU experts observed that the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) equity market witnessed
positive sentiment trading by investors’ participation, resulting in a positive Year-To-Date
(YTD) as both local and foreign investors on the platform exchanged N949.4 billion worth of
equities as at August 31st, 2022.
The Nigerian Stock Market outperformed all other African Stock Markets, emerging as one of
the best-performing stock markets in the world. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 1,670
basis points (bps), or 16.7% YTD, to close at 49,836.51 points, up from 42,716.44 points in Q1
2022.
In terms of sector performance, the Oil and Gas Index outperformed with a YTD gain of 54.2%.
This was predominantly due to an increase in global oil prices. The Consumer Goods Index,
which gained 1.91%, followed next. However, the industrial goods, insurance, and banking
indices fell 11.5%, 9.0%, and 4.6%, respectively.
However, in Africa, the South Africa’s FTSE/JSE ASI, Ghana’s GSE Composite Index,
Kenya’s ASI, and Egypt’s ASI declined by 8.8%, 10.1%, 17.1%, and 16.3%, respectively, as
at August 31st, 2022.
Sectoral performance towards Nigeria’s foreign trade
According to the latest report on foreign trade by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria's
total trade carried out from 2018 to 2022 amounted to N132.8 trillion. In 2019, there was an
increase of 14.1% to N36.2 trillion, but the total trades carried out declined by 30.2% in 2020,
which is attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic that led to a lock down of at least three months.
Notwithstanding, in 2021, the total trade grew to N39.8 trillion, an increase of 57.6%.
Furthermore, the oil sector shared the highest by 46.0%, followed by the manufactured food
industry, which contributed 22.4%, and the other petroleum sector contributed 17.9%, our
analysis has shown.
In the same quarter under review, the raw materials and agricultural goods sectors earned
8.31% and 4.72%, respectively, while the solid minerals and energy goods contributed the
least, by 0.46% and 0.17%, respectively.
At a Glance: State-wide perspective on Motorcycle (Okada) impact
Analysis show that Lagos experienced a 1% decline of average price since ban
BRIU findings show that lagos reported an average of N655.88 in July 2022, and this is a
decline by 1 percent from N662.50, the same price in both the previous month June when the
okada ban was implemented in some areas of the state and May 2022.
Other states across Nigeria have shown an increased fare for motorcycle service, and we
attribute the high rise in prices to fuel scarcity that occurred earlier this year, as well as higher
demand for service and a lower level of labour available.
Source: BRIU

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September 11th, 2022

BusinessDay Weekend Watch/ Nigeria

Precious Ogbonna Ajumoke Babatunde-Lawal Oseghale Ihayere

Source: NgnRates.com, BRIU

Nigeria’s current Import-Export valuation

Sectoral performance towards Nigeria’s foreign trade

At a Glance: State-wide perspective on Motorcycle (Okada) impact

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