Malaysia’s Upcoming Elections:

The State of Play

Ibrahim Suffian & Meredith Weiss
17 October 2022
Yale University
 § PH won in May 2018 à assumptions of “democratic
transition”
§ PH fell 2/20 … then reshuffle 8/21
§ Marginal reforms
§ PM Ismail Sabri dissolved parliament 10 October 2022
Key details § Suboptimal timing
§ Substantially expanded electorate, but likely low
turnout

§ Lack of clarity on options

§ Disarticulated state and federal elections
The Status Quo Ante

BN 41 PH 90 (MoU)
• UMNO 37 • DAP 42
• MCA 2 • PKR 36
• MIC 1 • Amanah 11
• PBRS 1 • UPKO 1
PN 47
• Bersatu 37 PH+ 13 (Opp)
• PAS 17 • Warisan 7
• PBS 1 • Pejuang 4
• STAR 1 • PSB 1
GPS 19 • MUDA 1
• PBB 14
• PRS 2
• PDP 2
BN 1
• SUPP 1 • UMNO 1
PBM 6
Vacant 2
Indep 3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Malaysia
 Composition of Dewan Rakyat as of October 2022

PH PN GPS

PBB 14

SUPP
PDP 2 PRS 2 1

PAS 17
PPBM 28 STAR 1

BN
MCA WARISAN 7 PBM 6
2

MIC
DAP 42 PKR 36 Vacant
1
IND 3 2

UPKO PBR PEJUAN PSB MUDA

AMANAH 11 1 UMNO 38 S1 G4 PBS 1 1 1
Credit: Wo Chang XI
 § People are not happy!
§ Not clear an election will address/redress their issues—
What do voters and high levels of disillusionment
want? § Lack of clarity on what parties/coalitions are promising,
what differentiates among these choices

§ BN is counting on “stability” … but what will ensure

that?
Voter Attitudes on Electoral Cooperation
Political Coalition Modalities of Electoral Cooperation
Preference
A coalition of All Malay
Parties, 14% Forma Party Preference A key factor in
A coalition of
Parties A coalition of Non-
l pact, Inform
30% Status determining outcomes
Malay Parties, 1% al
quo,
representing all
races, each pact,
24%
is the likelihood of
having equal say 23%
in the forming of A coalition of Parties
35% 42% 32% inter-opposition
national policies, representing all races, but
48% Malay Parties having the final
say on National Policies, 35%
27%
24%18%
cooperation. At present
22%
Q:Which coalition is most suitable in Malaysia?
20%
the chances are slim,
23% 21%
28%
19% but if it materializes, that
Identity and cultural
dichotomies underpin political Barisan Perikata Pakatan Undecided
could affect outcomes
choices, alongside other Nasional n Harapan significantly.
Nasional
variables, such as economic Q: Among future election contests, please choose the form of contest that is
class and region. closest to your point of view. (as of July 2022)

GE15 will be interesting due to Perception of whether country on the Sheraton Move
right or wrong track
the fragmentation of political
Right Wrong After – May 2020
parties—which raises the Before – Feb 2020
82%
Right Wrong

possibility of new alignment or 66%

61% 62% 63%
a return to Barisan Nasional 58%
dominance.
30%
23% 22% 22% 23%
The majority of voters want 10%
cooperation but do not trust
other rival parties, giving a Overall Malay Non-Malay Overall Malay Non-Malay
clear advantage to BN.
Public Sentiments: Direction of the Country
Direction of the Country
100%

90%

80% 100

70% 64% 74%

80
69%
60% 54%
67% 83 80
56% 64% 5… 64%
62%
60% 60%61% 60%61% 5… 60%61%60% 70
50%
49%
55% 56%
58% 59%58% 58% 60 69
41%
54%54%
52%51%52%53% 44% 44% 54% 62
48% 40% 40% 51%
48%
40% 44%
46%46%45% 46% 46%
40
41%
39%38%
41% 40% 39%
42% 43%
40% 29
30% 34%
38%38%37%
34%
37%36%38%
35% 34%35% 35% 36% 37% 21 22
24%33% 32%33%33% 32% 14
30%
28%
31% 31% 31% 20 11
20% 26%27%26% 27%27%
24%23% 25%
23%
21% 21% 21%
18%
10% 12% Right Direction 0
13%
Wrong Direction Malay Chinese Indian MB Non-MB
0%
Direction across ethnicity as of July 2022

06-2021 (End)
01-2018
02-2018
04-2018
05-2018
06-2018
07-2018
08-2018
09-2018
10-2018
12-2018
12-2018
01-2019
03-2019
04-2019
05-2019
06-2019
07-2019
08-2019
10-2019
11-2019
12-2019
01-2020
02-2020
05-2020
06-2020
07-2020
07-2020
08-2020
09-2020
10-2020

12-2020
01-2021
03-2021
05-2021
11-2020 (Early)
11-2020 (Mid)

06-2021 (Early)

07-2021
08-2021
09-2021
10-2021
12-2021
01-2022
03-2022
04-2022
06-2022
07-2022
Q: Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten on the wrong direction?

Economy concerns 46% Favourable economy 12%

Political instability 18% Good national/state administration 8%

Poor and inefficient administration 11% Good development & infrastructure 4%

Bad quality of leadership/ No welfare 5% Social & public safety 3%

2% Good quality of leadership/ Welfare 2%
Racial issues
to the people

Q: Why do you say so?

Political Drivers: Issues and Problems
Country’s Biggest Problem Top 5 Voter Concerns Issues Issues driving
voter motivations
82% Economic Concerns 34% Inflation are fairly universal:
the economy and
inflation.
2% Political Issue 15% Political Instability
But we now see
voters genuinely
concerned over
2% Racial Issue 12% Corruption
political
uncertainty, as this
is a novel situation.
Leadership Issue Enhancing economic growth
1% 10%
Decades of
stability has given
way to musical
1% Development & Infrastructure Issue 6% Protect worker’s rights for a fair wage chairs in political
leadership.

Q: Being as specific as you can, what is the number Q: From the following, please choose two (2) current
one problem facing the people of this country today? issues that are most important to you at present?
Government Approval Rating
Barisan Pakatan Perikatan
100%
Nasiona Harapan Nasional
90% l
79%
80%
72%
66%
70% 63% 63% 61% 61%
58% 58% 60%
58% 58%
60% 55% 54% 52% 55% 56%
51% 50% 52% 64% 51%
50% 47% 47% 61% 48% 47% 49%
50% 57% 58% 57% 56% 43% 45% 47%
43% 41%
39%
50% 51%
35% 48% 34% 49% 37%
40% 45% 43%
34%
43% 42% 30% 32%
40% 39% 42% 39%
38% 27% 25% 27% 38%
40% 26% 38%
30% 36%
35% 34% 36% 33% 34%
30%
20% 28% 27% 27% 28%
23% 23%
10% 18%

0% 7%
01-2018

02-2018

04-2018

05-2018

07-2018

08-2018

10-2018

12-2018

01-2019

03-2019

05-2019

07-2019

08-2019

10-2019

11-2019

01-2020

02-2020

05-2020

06-2020

07-2020

07-2020

08-2020

10-2020

11-2020 (Early)

11-2020 (Mid)

12-2020

01-2021

03-2021

05-2021

06-2021

07-2021

08-2021

09-2021

10-2021

12-2021

01-2022

03-2022

06-2022

07-2022

09-2022
Happy/ Satisfied Dissatisfied/ Angry

Q: Some people say they are happy with …, while others are dissatisfied and others say they are angry. Which one best describes how you feel?

100
80 73 70
Sentiments that hit lows in July have eased as government
60 50
59 56 subsidies mitigated inflation and cost of living increases.
39 37 37
40
15 17
20
0
Malay Chinese Indian MB Non-MB
Direction across ethnicity as of September 2022
Govt Performance Indicators Najib’s sentencing and counter-inflation measures have
Satisfied Dissatisfied improved perceptions
Managing the Covid-19 Pandemic Upholding Rule of Law Creating Job Opportunities

100% 91%93%

77% 76%
80% 74% 72% 74%
70% 68%65% 70% 70%
66% 67% 66%
61% 61% 61% 62% 64%
57% 58% 57% 58% 59% 60% 59% 60%
53% 55% 56% 56% 57% 55%
60% 53% 53% 52% 52% 53% 54%
50% 51% 48%50% 51% 51%51%51%
61% 46%47%
57%55%
38% 39%
40% 4…
46% 46%46% 45% 35%
41% 38% 41% 42% 42%41% 39% 44%
39% 38% 41% 40% 39% 40% 41%42%
33% 34% 34% 34% 36% 36% 35% 37%
29%
32% 32%33% 32% 32% 33% 32%
20% 30%
25% 26% 26%28% 28% 27% 26%
29%
22%
19%
0% 8% 6%
March

March
Aug

Aug
June

June
May

May
Oct

Oct
Sept

Sept
Nov
Dec

July

Dec

July
Jan

Jan

March

March
Aug

Aug
June
Oct

Oct
Sept

Sept
Nov

July

Dec

July
Jan

Jan

Jun

March

March
Aug

Aug
June

June
Sept

Sept
May

Nov

Dec

July

Dec

July
Oct

Oct
Jan

Jan
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

Helping Those in Need Fighting Corruption Managing Economy

100%

78% 78%
80% 71% 75% 74% 72% 75% 73%
71%
68% 70% 66% 68%
70%
63% 64% 65% 66% 63% 64%63% 64% 64% 65%
60% 59% 61% 63% 63% 59% 60%62%
54% 56% 55% 54% 56% 54% 54% 56% 56% 56%54%
60% 51% 65%
6… 48% 49% 50%
44% 47%
40%
54% 40%
55%
40% 35% 47%
44% 45% 46%
41% 41% 43% 42% 43% 43% 28% 38%
37% 36% 34% 38% 38% 39% 36% 37% 39%38% 38%
32% 30% 34%
20% 29% 30% 28% 28%30% 28% 31% 31%31% 31%
25% 27% 27% 23% 25% 27%
23% 27%
20% 20% 22%
17% 16% 18%
0%
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
June

June

June

June
March

March

March

March
Sept

Sept

Sept

Sept
May

May
Nov

July

Dec

July

Nov

July

Dec

July
Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

March

March
Aug

Sept
May

May
Dec

Dec

July
Feb

Oct

Oct
Jul

Jul
Jan

Jan

Jun

Jan

Jun
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
 Perceived Financial Strength of Government

Ethnicity Gender/Internet Access Age Group

Confident Not confident Confident Not confident Confident Not confident

100 100 100
80
80 68 80 80 66 67 67
63 63 64 63 60
55 54 51
Don't Know/Refused, 8% Very confident 60 60 45 60 49
, 6%
40 40 40

36 34 39 20 33
Not confident 20 20 31 28 32 32 29 27 31
24 27 25
at all, 23% 0 13 0 0
Somewhat Malay Chinese Indian MB Non-MB Male Female Internet No Internet 18-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 + 60
confident,
23%
Occupation Household Income (RM) Settlement/Region
Confident Not confident Confident Not confident Confident Not confident
Somewhat not 100 100 100
confident, 40% 75 80
80 68 64 80 68 65 63 63
60 61 59
60 53 60 53 60

40 40 40

20 38 32 20 34 32 20 32
25 28 24 23 27 29 28
0 0 0
Govt/GLC Private Business/ *Others <2,000 2,000 - 3,999 4,000 - 6,999 ≥ 7,000 Urban Rural Peninsular East Malaysia
Self-emp

* Homemaker, Retired, Students, Unemployed

Q: How confident or not confident are you that the government has the financial strength to subsidize the cost of goods,
implement development, and pay the salaries of its employees?
Corruption Perceptions

Ethnicity Gender/Internet Access Age Group

Getting Neutral/ Getting Neutral/ Getting Neutral/
Worsen Worsen Worsen
100 better no opinion 100 better no opinion 100 better no opinion
80 80 73
80 64 64 65
62
Don't Getting 60 60 60 49
67 65 65 62 64
Know/Refused, 9% better, 58
40 55 55 40 40
11% 21 26 49 23 19
17 16 17 16 17 17
20 11 14 14 16 12 15 16 20 11 10 10 11 20 11 9 12 12 16 11 8 10
7
0 0 0
Neutral/ no Malay Chinese Indian MB Non-MB Male Female Internet No Internet 18-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 + 60
opinion,
17%
Occupation Household Income (RM) Settlement/Region
Getting Neutral / Getting Neutral/ Getting Neutral/
100 Worsen 100 Worsen 100 Worsen
better no opinion better no opinion better no opinion
Worsen, 64% 80 80 80

60 69 60 72 60
63 64 65 66
59 61 60 59 62
40 40 40 51
25
20 18 18
20 13 10 14 13 18 20 13 13 13 9
18 16
20 10
16
11
18
10
15 12
9 7
0 0 0
Govt/GLC Private Business/ *Others <2,000 2,000 - 3,999 4,000 - 6,999 ≥ 7,000 Urban Rural Peninsular East Malaysia
Self-emp

* Homemaker, Retired, Students, Unemployed

Q: Looking at the current situation in Malaysia, is corruption nowadays getting better or worsening?
Voting Factors among Youth
Issue(s) Candidate Leadership Political party UNSURE/DK REFUSE/NR
TOTAL 23% 16% 40% 15% 6% 1%
Malay 23% 15% 44% 13% 5% 1%
Chinese 23% 14% 30% 22% 11% 0%
7%
Indian 27% 16% 37% 14% 4% 2%
MB 24% 22% 36% 14% 4% 15%
40%
NMB 15% 19% 46% 14% 7%
Male 24% 16% 38% 14% 6% 1% 16%
Female 21% 16% 42% 15% 6% 0%
18-22 yrs 22% 14% 44% 14% 6% 0%
23%
23-27 yrs 22% 16% 38% 16% 6% 0%
28-30 yrs 24% 17% 37% 14% 7% 1%
Q: Which of the following factors influences young people’s vote in elections?
Leadership Issue(s)
Key takeaways: Candidate Political party
DK/NR
• Malay youth, and youth overall (especially the
youngest), lean heavily toward leadership;
Chinese youth are comparatively more inclined
toward parties
• Issues matter more than party
Youth Interest in Politics

Interested Not interested Unsure/Refuse Where or from whom do you learn

UNSURE/DK, 1% about politics?
Very TOTAL 30% 70% 1%
interested, 5%
Malay 32% 67% 1%
Not
interested,
Chinese 29% 71% 0%
Online &
31% Somewhat Indian 20% 80% 1%
Interested, 24% Social Media
MB 28% 71% 1% 60%
NMB 21% 78% 1% 55% Family
members
Male 37% 62% 0%
50% Television
Female 22% 77% 1%
Somewhat not 18-22 yrs 28% 71% 0%
Friends
interested, 39% 23-27 yrs 31% 68% 1% 40%
28-30 yrs 30% 69% 1%
<2,000 26% 73% 1%
28-30 30% 69%
2,000-3,999 31% 68% 0% 30%
4,000-5,999 32% 67% 1%
23-27 31% 68% 21%
>6,000 34% 66% 0%
20%
Employed-Full time 30% 69% 1%
18-22 28% 71%
Employed-Part time 24% 76% 0% 10%
Unemployed 30% 70% 1% 10%
8%
Interested Not Interested Urban 29% 71% 1%
DK/NR Semi-urban 33% 66% 1%
29% 70% 0% 0%
Rural

Q: How interested are you in politics?

 Youth Voter Turnout

Age Group Ethnicity Gender/Education

Likely Maybe Unlikely Likely Maybe Unlikely 100

Likely Maybe Unlikely
100 100
Very
unlikely, 7% 80 80 80
Unsure/Refuse, 78 82 76
77 76 75 60 73 72
60 73 60
3% 66 64
38
Somewhat 40 40 51 32 40
44 19
unlikely, 3% 14 10 17 13 20 13 10 14 10 12 9 11
20 12 12 11 10 20 11 9 12 12 10 11
9 3
0 0 0
Total 18-22 23-27 28-30 Malay Chinese Indian MB NMB Male Female College Non-college

Maybe, Very likely,

14% 61% Occupation Household Income (RM) Voters/Settlement

100 Likely Maybe Unlikely 100 Likely Maybe Unlikely 100 Likely Maybe Unlikely

Somewhat 80 80 80
likely, 12% 78 78 78 81 78
60 60 75 60 74 73
70 68 70 70
63
40 40 40
17 17 17 18 15 11 14
20 13 9 10 11 20 9 11 11 9 11 10 8 20 11 8 13 13 10 9
7 8
0 0 0
Govt/Glc Private Business/Self-emp Others* <1,999 2,000-3,999 4,000-5,999 ≥6,000 Voters Non-Voters Urban Semi- Rural
Urban

Q: How likely are you to vote in the next general election?

 § Essentially inchoate: factions, camps, opportunistic
alliances

§ Multiple potential “kingmakers”

Parties & players § (Too) many would-be PMs …
§ Risk of a pasted-together alliance that fails to govern
Political Coalitions

Strong Weak

A coalition of all Malay 67%

parties, 14% 62%
A coalition of 56%
parties A coalition of non-
representing all Malay parties, 1%
races, with each 38%
having equal say
in national 25%
22%
policies, 48% A coalition of parties
representing all races, but
with Malay parties’ having
the final say on national
policies, 35%
Barisan Nasional Pakatan Harapan Perikatan Nasional

Q: Which coalition is most suitable in Malaysia? Q: In your view, which of the following best describes the
situation of the … today? (as of Dec 2021)
Perceptions toward Parties (1/2020 – 7/2022)
100% Barisan Nasional
Happy
80%
58% 57%
Angry/
60% 54% 53% Dissatisfied
49% 47% 49% 48% 49% 47% 49%
43% 46%

40%
45%
35% 37% 37% 35% 34% 35% 34%
20% 30% 29% 31% 28% 27%

0%

Oct-21
Feb-20

Mar-22
Jan-20

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

May-21

Aug-21

Dec-21
100% Perikatan Nasional

80%
58% 59%
60% 57% 56% 54%
60% 52% 53% 48% 49% 49% 49%
46% 46% 45%
42%
40%
40% 41% 40%
35% 36% 33% 37% 34%
20% 27% 28% 32% 31% 28% 29%
26%
22%
0%

Oct-21
Mar-21

Mar-22
Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

May-21
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
100% Pakatan Harapan

80%
58% 59% 59% 58% 58% 58% 59% 58%
52% 52% 55% 53% 52% 53% 54%
60% 49% 51% 51%

40%

20% 32% 34%

28% 27% 28% 30% 30% 28% 28% 27%
26% 24% 24% 26% 23% 25% 25%
21%
0%

Oct-21
Feb-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jan-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
May-20

May-21
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
PH vs BN vs PN (PAS+BERSATU) as of 4 October 2022
Pakatan Barisan Perikatan Gerakan Tanah None of the Refuse to
Other party Unsure
Harapan Nasional Nasional Air (Pejuang) above answer

TOTAL 27% 27% 9% 2% 2% 17% 14% 2%

Malay 10% 37% 15% 2% 1% 16% 16% 3%

Chinese 51% 6% - 3% 3% 20% 15% 2%

Indian 55% 21% 1% 2% 5% 4% 11% 2%

Muslim Bumi 16% 41% 7% 4% 2% 21% 10% -

-Non Muslim Bumi 32% 24% 10% 2% 6% 20% 7% -

Male 31% 24% 11% 2% 2% 17% 11% 2%

Female 23% 29% 7% 3% 2% 17% 18% 2%

Internet access 27% 26% 9% 2% 2% 17% 14% 2%

No Internet access 23% 35% 7% - - 18% 17% -

18 – 20 26% 40% 8% 6% 3% 1% 15% 2%

21 – 40 22% 25% 10% 2% 4% 20% 15% 2%

Above 40 32% 26% 8% 2% 1% 16% 14% 2%

Q: Among Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional (PAS+BERSATU), or Gerakan Tanah Air (coalition party led
by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad), which party do you prefer to represent you?
Estimated Party Support (Peninsular Malaysia) as of 4 October 2022

Malay Chinese Indian

Total Popular
Ethnic Vote
62.6% 28.6% 8.8%
Composition

37.0% 6.0% 20.9% 28.1%

14.6% 0.3% 1.2% 9.9%

10.2% 51.3% 54.7% 24.4%

Other parties 3.3% 5.8% 7.0% 4.2%

Undecided 34.9% 36.6% 16.2% 33.4%

Current State of Play
Barisan Nasional Pakatan Harapan Perikatan Nasional
• Overall, BN vote share has not increased; will • Since 2020, PH has lost over 50% of • PN has shaved BN and PH Malay
likely shrink further with inclusion of 5 its Malay vote share support but will likely be unable to
million new voters convert to large share of seats due to
• Current surveys and results from state • DAP remains an anchor and is likely a narrow base of supporters.
to retain most of its seats, along with
elections (Johore, Malacca, Sarawak) indicate some mixed ethnic seats under PKR • PAS will anchor PN but Bersatu will
support has not increased but has generally have to fight for survival
remained intact, thanks to large, loyal base • For PH to retain seats won in 2018, it
of Malay support (around 40%) needs to increase Malay support to • With a deal, Bersatu, PKR, and
• For BN to win >90 seats, it needs the about 30% Amanah could become casualties of
the GE
opposition (i.e., Pakatan Harapan and
Perikatan Nasional) to remain in conflict

Estimated Turnout (as of 4 Aug 2022) Estimated Support by Ethnicity (Peninsular Malaysia)
Ethnicity Turnout Coalitions Malay Chinese Indian
Malay 75%
Barisan 50.7% 13.3% 26.6%
Chinese 65%
Pakatan 15.4% 78.8% 63.6%
Indian 63%
Perikatan 32.1% 1.2% 1.6%
Other 70%
Other 1.8% 6.7% 7.2%
TOTAL 71%
Perceptions of Leaders 1
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

DS Ismail Sabri TS Muhyiddin Yassin Dr. Mahathir Mohamed

100% 100% 93% 100%

80% 80% 74% 74% 80% 72%

70% 68% 67%
67% 66% 65%
62% 63% 61% 60% 58% 63% 64% 64% 61% 62% 61% 58% 59% 58%
59% 57% 58% 56%
60% 52% 50% 54% 60% 54%
60% 52%
50% 48% 50% 48% 49% 53% 49% 49% 51%
46%
59%
40% 40% 34% 40%
47% 45%
45% 41%
46% 44% 46% 42% 42%
39% 38% 39% 41% 40% 40% 38% 36% 40%
35% 36% 37%
34% 32% 31% 34% 34% 31% 34% 36%
20% 20% 29% 20% 31% 31% 29% 31% 30%
26% 26% 28%
21% 21% 23%
18%
0% 0% 0%

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jun-22

Sept-22
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jun-22

Sept-22
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21

Oct-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-22

Jun-22

Feb-20

Mar-21
Sept-22
Aug-21

May-20

May-21
Oct-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

May-21
Mar-21
Oct-21
Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-22
June-21
May-20

4%

DS Anwar Ibrahim Khairy Jamaluddin Hishamuddin Hussein

100% 100% 100%

80% 80% 74% 80%

71%
61% 59% 61% 61% 61%
58% 58% 58%
55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 57% 54% 56% 56%
60% 52% 54% 60% 52% 60% 51% 53% 51% 51% 52% 52% 51%
49% 46% 47% 48%
46% 45% 45% 45%

40% 40% 40%

37% 35% 36%

34% 32% 33% 34%
20% 28% 29% 29% 31% 31% 30% 30% 27% 30% 30% 20% 31% 20% 30% 28% 31% 29% 29% 29%
27% 28% 26% 27% 27% 28% 27% 27% 25%
20% 22% 22%
19%
0% 0% 0%

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-22
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
Jun-20

Jun-22
Aug-21

Dec-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jun-22

Oct-21
Sept-22

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21

May-20

Mar-21
Oct-21

Jul-22
Oct-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

May-21
Feb-20

Mar-21
Perceptions of Leaders 2
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

Zahid Hamidi Hadi Awang

100% 100%

76%
80% 71% 80%
69% 67% 70% 70% 67%
66% 67%
62% 61% 61%
58% 54%
60% 55% 56% 54% 55% 55% 60% 54% 52% 52% 54%
51% 53%
50%
42% 41% 40% 41% 39%
39% 38% 36% 38%
40% 40% 51%

39% 37% 40% 41% 25%

21% 20% 22%
18% 16% 20% 35% 36%
16% 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 34% 34% 32%
20% 11% 9% 20% 29% 28%
25% 28%
26% 28%
26% 24%

0% 0%

Nov-20

Dec-20

Dec-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jun-22

Sept-22
Aug-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jun-22

Sept-22
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21

Oct-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Feb-20

Mar-21
Oct-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

May-20

May-21
Feb-20

Mar-21
May-20

May-21

Najib Razak Mohamad Hassan

100% 100%

80% 80%

59% 57%
60% 55% 53%
52% 52%
55% 55% 57% 56% 56% 60%
51% 50% 49% 52% 52% 51% 49%
42% 40% 39%
36%
40% 40% 33% 32%
43% 42% 43%
38% 38% 39% 38% 40% 40% 39% 38% 39% 37%
34% 35% 35% 36%
32% 31% 32%
20% 20% 28% 29% 29%
25%

0% 0%

Jun-21

Sept-22
Dec-21

Jul-22
Mar-21

May-21
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jun-22

Sept-22
Oct-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Feb-20

Mar-21
May-20

May-21
Undecided Voters Profile (2 October 2022)
Overall (n=401)

Gender Age Group Settlement Internet

-30 23%
No

46% 54% 31-40

41-50 18%
34% Rural, 33% internet
7%
MALE FEMALE
51-60 13% Urban,
Internet
67%
+60 12% 93%

Ethnicity Occupation Household Income (RM) Education

Malay 55% < 2,000 Primary 7%
Government/ GLC 13% 16%
Chinese 31% 2,000 - 3,999 Secondary
Private 45% 29% 35%
Indian 4% 4,000- 6999
Self-employed/
16% 20% Diploma 26%
Business
Musli… 6% > 7,000 17%
Others* 27% Degree & above 32%
Non… 5% No response 19%
*Homemaker, Retired, Students, Unemployed
 § Malapportionment and skew
§ Youth vote (and relative turnout)
§ Economic promises: temptation to be (untenable)
generous
Issues & dynamics
§ States’ rights, especially Sabah & Sarawak
§ Leadership: who ends up at the helm?
§ Conduct of campaign: debates? Covid? spending?
§ What happens in/to UMNO? Bersatu? PKR?
The suspense
persists ...
Extra slides
 Present Estimated Seat Share
Based on the present estimated vote share, the coalitions may attain the following results
Semenanjung Malaysia Sabah Sarawak
Likely multicornered coalition/party contests Likely multicornered 3-4
BN vs PN vs Warisan vs PH vs other parties coalition/party contests
GPS vs PH vs others (e.g.
PSB, etc.)
Scenario Configuration Total BN Total PN Total PH PN BN PH Warisan + GPS PH/Other
Other
GE14 3 cornered:
18
BN vs PH vs 49 98 0 11 6 8 19 12
(PAS)
PAS
Semasa > 4 cornered:
(Excludes Gerik &
Batu Sapi)
BN vs PH vs 38 38 77 8 3 6 8 19 12
PN vs others*

Estimated Seat Share GE 15

GE15 > 4 cornered:
BN vs PH vs 94 22 49 8 5 4 9 27 4
PN vs others

*West Malaysian other parties: Pejuang(4), PBM (3), Independent (3), MUDA(1)
Sentiments toward Parties [By Ethnicity, West Malaysia]

Barisan Nasional Barisan Nasional

100% 100%
Happy
80% 80%
67%
82% 81% 82% Angry/
73% 75% 74%
60% 47%
51%
51%
60% 70% 73% 71% 72% 69% Dissatisfied
46% 44% 48% 46% 44% 45% 64%
39% 37% 38% 56%
40% 48% 40%
46% 44% 24%
40% 39% 19% 18% 19%
35% 38% 37%
33% 34% 35% 12% 13% 14% 14% 12%
20% 31% 20% 10% 10% 7%
10%
25%

0% 0%

Oct-21

Oct-21
Feb-20

Mar-22

Feb-20

Mar-22
Jan-20

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22

Jan-20

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

May-21

May-20

May-21
Aug-21

Dec-21

Aug-21

Dec-21
Perikatan Nasional Perikatan Nasional
100% 100%
85% 82%

NON - MALAY
78%
80% 72% 80%
67% 87%
MALAY

63% 84%
59% 57% 78%
55% 76%
60% 51% 60% 68% 69% 71% 71% 70%
46% 44% 46% 48% 46% 67%
62% 61%
36% 59% 58% 56% 57%
40% 40%
24% 41% 20% 22% 20% 22%
39% 19%
18% 17% 36% 37% 33% 36% 16% 16% 16%
20% 30% 31% 20% 9% 9% 12% 11%
10% 26% 6% 8% 7%
8% 24% 5%
16%
0% 0%
Oct-21

Oct-21
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

May-21

May-20

May-21
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21

Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
Pakatan Harapan Pakatan Harapan
100% 100%

74% 73% 74%

80% 70% 70% 80%
65% 68% 65% 66% 67%
62% 63%
66%
60% 60% 60% 61% 57%
60% 60% 50% 52%
43% 45% 49% 47% 46% 45% 47% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 48%
39% 42%
39%
40% 40%
47%
38% 43% 41% 40%
41% 39% 39% 41%
35% 38% 36% 38% 36%
33%
36% 38%
20% 20%
27%
23%
18% 19% 18%
14% 15%
18% 18% 16% 19% 16% 14% 16% 18% 19% 17% 19% 17%
0% 0%
Oct-21

Oct-21
Feb-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Feb-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jan-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
May-20

May-21

May-20

May-21
Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21

Nov-20

Dec-20

Aug-21

Dec-21
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Possible Election Scenarios and Outcomes
Scenario 1 2 3
BN vs PH vs PN vs others BN vs PH/PN BN vs PKR/PN vs PAS
(status quo) (informal cooperation) (formal cooperation)
Outcome Strong BN result, able to gain Still sizable BN result with Potential repeat of 2018 result but
majority seats in W Msia and potential to form government. dependent on:
potential to form Govt with GPS 1. How many seats PAS contests and if
and Sabah parties Bersatu is able to have an electoral
pact
2. PN/PH voters reciprocate support
Implications DAP would retain most seats by PKR and Bersatu will not make With reciprocation and electoral pact, it is
lose 2-4. PKR loses 40-60% of significant gains as voters do not possible for PN and PH to win sizable
seats. Bersatu survival in doubt. reciprocate. number of seats in W Msia and form a govt
with Sabah and Sarawak parties. Question
mark on post election cooperation – hung
parliament a likelihood.
Likelihood High – if negotiations take too Low – PAS has openly declared Moderate – there is some likelihood of a
much time or internal rejection is refusal to cooperate with PH and PKR-Bersatu deal, but still early. Big
high. DAP. question is if PAS is willing to deal as well.

• Time of essence for an intra-opposition cooperation to take place, much need to be agreed upon: terms of cooperation, seat allocation,
post-election power sharing/positions, and spheres of influence