Cyient 28 11 2022 Anand
Cyient 28 11 2022 Anand
Cyient 28 11 2022 Anand
28 November 2022
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(Rs) ($m)
1,400 160 19% 20%
18% 18% 18%
17% 18%
16% 16% 16%
1,200 140 16%
16%
14%
1,000 120
12%
10%
800 100 10%
8%
600 80
6%
4%
400 60
2%
112 114 115 120 119 125 129 131 137 151
200 40 0%
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
0
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Aug-20
Nov-20
Nov-21
Feb-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
400
300
200
103.1
100 74.6
0
Services DLM Total
Order intake for Services is steady but the large-deal pipeline is $1bn+
and the company is optimistic about improving the order intake ahead.
DLM order intake has improved in Q2 FY23 to $118m (up 402% q/q,
253% y/y) and the company closed a large deal from Honeywell in Q2.
700 646
600
500
412
400
300 270
200
142
111
100
0
Services DLM Total
30 27.1
25.4
25
20
15
10
0
Top 5 average Top 10 average
Fig 11 – Q2 FY22 revenue split for Cyient (consolidated) Fig 12 – Q2 FY23 revenue split for Cyient (consolidated)
Citec/Plant
Engineering
MEU/Industrial 4%
MEU/Industrial
Products
Products
15%
16% Transportation
(includes
Strategic Buyout)
Transportation
35%
(includes
New Growth Strategic Buyout)
Areas/ Medical 43%
Devices
19% New Growth
Areas/ Medical
Devices
18%
Communication/H Communication/H
i-Tech (includes i-Tech (includes
Celfinet) Celfinet)
23% 27%
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Note: Citec was integrated for one month.
Transportation
Plant Engineering 35%
16%
Some of the industries Cyient was focusing on were not growing great.
For example, Transportation (Within that Rail in particular). Compared
to its peers, Cyient’s transportation is smaller and heavily tilted toward
Aerospace.
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Note: Transportation revenue (from services business for Cyient)
50 49.1
47.2
44.2 44.9
41.6
39.8
40
30
20
10
0
Cyient KPIT LTTS
Communication
“Smart” FTTx (fibre)
Talent shortage has been high
TCV for LTM was $250m in Fibre
Transforming Telco operations and enterprise networks
TCV of $35m in LTM from key accounts
The company aims to take the yearly rate to $220-250m in FY24 for
this vertical.
Wire practice is 70% and wireless is 30% of its communications
business.
Margins
The company to make up 350bps (H1 FY23 EBIT margin at ~11.7%)
over the rest of the year. It might see some one-time costs due to
broken leases.
Automation and efficiency to benefit margins by 2.5-3%.
Sales focus on existing and new accounts.
39.2%
40%
30%
21.1% 21.7%
19.5% 19.1%
20%
10% 7.6%
0%
-2.6%
-10%
-13.9%
-20%
FY20 FY21 FY22 H1FY23
5% 4.9%
4.3%
4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
3% 2.7%
2%
1%
0%
Cyient KPIT LTTS
Other updates
Cyient is looking to slide into the revenue cycle of customers and not
merely stay on their cost cycles.
Added 2,500 employees in LTM in Embedded.
No significant furloughs seen in Q3 so far.
Factsheet
Fig 18 – Revenue, by area, %
Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
US 49 49 54 51 50
Europe 25 25 25 23 26
APAC 26 26 22 26 24
Industry
Aerospace & Defense 13% 19% -2% 7% -1%
Transportation 0% -12% -14% -23% -31%
Portfolio 18% 15% 14% 20% 17%
Communications 5% 4% 7% 15% 20%
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Valuations
The stock trades at 13x FY24e EPS of Rs61 and 12x FY25e EPS of Rs68.
Revenue grew 9% in FY22, slower than the industry on account of a gradual
recovery in Aero and sustained weakness in Rail. However, the company
seems to be returning to growth, with the deal momentum building up on
the Services side, more so in the Communications vertical, which is now its
largest Services vertical.
Ahead, we expect revenue to clock 19% compound annual growth (incl.
acquisitions) over FY22-24. On a positive note, management is seeing
demand increasing steadily in A&D and expects it to clock 10% cc (low
double digit) growth for the year.
The EBIT margin expanded 380bps in FY22 (to 13.9%) but is expected to
slip to 12.5% in FY23 before stepping up to ~13% in FY24 and staying at
~13% in FY25. This reflects high wage pressure, attrition, re-opening costs,
and M&A expenses. Cyient will have offshoring and utilisation (to a small
extent) as levers to offset some of these cost pressures. Given its better
execution on the margin front (compared to growth) and, taking into
consideration our expectations of it reducing the gap with industry level
growth in FY23, the stock offers good potential. We, however, read the
company’s acquisitive strategy as less capital-efficient, reflected in the lower
target multiple.
Our FY23, FY24 and FY25 estimates are largely unchanged. Our target is
Rs1,030 (unchanged), reflecting slower growth and order intake at present,
leading to delays in growth picking up. The company recently made three
acquisitions and one strategic buyout, which should add 14-15% to FY23
revenue, included in our estimates. Clearly, Cyient’s track record in
acquisition is mixed at best; hence, we believe the company carries some
integration risks.
Our target price is based on 15x FY25e EPS. At this price, Cyient will trade
at a ~40% discount to the sector leader, LTTS, which we think is fair, given
the difference in portfolio and performance of the two large pure-play
engineering-services companies.
Fig 25 – PE band
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Aug-19
Nov-19
Sep-20
Dec-20
Aug-21
Sep-22
Mar-19
May-19
Apr-20
Feb-21
Jan-20
Jun-20
May-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Risk
M&A-integration-related
Mar-16
Feb-17
Jun-18
Mar-20
Feb-21
Jun-22
Nov-14
Aug-16
Nov-18
Aug-20
Dec-21
Jul-17
Dec-17
Apr-19
Jul-21
Nov-22
Oct-15
Oct-19
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