Overview Articles

Critical Uncertainties and Gaps

in the Environmental- and
Social-Impact Assessment of
the Proposed Interoceanic
Canal through Nicaragua
JORGE A. HUETE-PÉREZ, MANUEL ORTEGA-HEGG, GERALD R. URQUHART, ALAN P. COVICH, KATHERINE VAMMEN,
BRUCE E. RITTMANN, JULIO C. MIRANDA, SERGIO ESPINOZA-CORRIOLS, ADOLFO ACEVEDO, MARÍA L. ACOSTA,
JUAN P. GÓMEZ, MICHAEL T. BRETT, MICHAEL HANEMANN, ANDREAS HÄRER, JAIME INCER-BARQUERO,
FRANK J. JOYCE, J. WESLEY LAUER, JEAN MICHEL MAES, MASON B. TOMSON, AXEL MEYER,
SALVADOR MONTENEGRO-GUILLÉN, W. LINDSAY WHITLOW, JERALD L. SCHNOOR, AND PEDRO J. J. ALVAREZ

The proposed interoceanic canal will connect the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean, traversing Lake Nicaragua, the major freshwater
reservoir in Central America. If completed, the canal would be the largest infrastructure-related excavation project on Earth. In November 2015,
the Nicaraguan government approved an environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) for the canal. A group of international experts
participated in a workshop organized by the Academy of Sciences of Nicaragua to review this ESIA. The group concluded that the ESIA does not
meet international standards; essential information is lacking regarding the potential impacts on the lake, freshwater and marine environments,
and biodiversity. The ESIA presents an inadequate assessment of natural hazards and socioeconomic disruptions. The panel recommends that
work on the canal project be suspended until an appropriate ESIA is completed. The project should be resumed only if it is demonstrated to be
economically feasible, environmentally acceptable, and socially beneficial.

Keywords: Nicaragua, interoceanic canal, environmental impacts, social impacts, Lake Nicaragua

I n June 2013, the Nicaraguan government approved 

a 50-year concession (renewable for another 50 years)
to the Hong Kong Nicaragua Canal Development (HKND)
proposed route of the canal will have significant impacts on
protected natural areas and indigenous lands (figure 1).
Construction and operation of the canal would require
Investment Company to construct an interoceanic canal initial and frequent maintenance dredging of a canal 29
across Nicaragua. The concession grants sole rights to meters (m) deep across 107 km of the southern end of
HKND to plan, design, build, and subsequently operate the Lake Nicaragua (figure 1). The total volume of excavated
canal. In addition, it allows the construction of two ports, a material would be larger than in any previous civil infra-
free-trade zone, tourist resorts, an international airport, a structure project. It would also be the largest wet excava-
power station, cement and steel factories, and other facilities. tion ever. To put the project in perspective, it would require
HKND plans to build the 276-kilometer (km) canal—over about 980 million m3 of marine and freshwater dredging
three times longer than, twice as wide as, and deeper than (ERM 2015), about five times greater than the 197 million
the Panama Canal—in 5 years. Excavation would remove m3 excavated to make the Hong Kong harbor (Syvitski
approximately 5 billion square meters (m3) of material, and Kettner 2011). Significant impacts are likely on Lake
including 715 million m3 of lake sediments (ERM 2015). The Nicaragua, affecting 93,800 hectares (ha) of terrestrial

BioScience 66: 632–645. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. This is an
Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/
by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For
commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
doi:10.1093/biosci/biw064 Advance Access publication 2 June 2016

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 Overview Articles

Figure 1. A proposed canal route for the Interoceanic Canal through Nicaragua. The canal would extend from the Pacific
coast up the Rio Brito valley, over the continental divide, and down the Rio Las Lajas valley to Lake Nicaragua (also known
as Lake Cocibolca). It would continue through the lake to south of the San Miguelito wetlands in the eastern side of the lake.
From there, it would move up the Tule River valley and over the Caribbean highlands through the Cerro Silva and Indio
Maiz nature reserves, ending in the Caribbean near the mouth of the Punta Gorda River (ERM 2015). Lake Nicaragua is
very shallow, with an average water depth of approximately 9 meters (m), but the canal cross-section would have minimal
depths ranging from 26.9 m to 29.0 m and minimum bottom widths ranging from 230 to 280 m. Construction would require
extensive dredging and disposal or storage of large amounts of sediments and diminish water quality in the lake (ERM
2015). A comparison of the Nicaragua canal with the new sizes of the expanded Suez and Panama canals is provided.
A large reservoir (Lake Atlanta) would be constructed to provide fresh water for operating the locks in the eastern section,
flooding much of the Punta Gorda watershed. Illustration: Catalina Solano (used with permission).

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Overview Articles

ecosystems and 18,800 ha of tropical rainforest in the Water and sediments

Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, as well as the displace- Lake Nicaragua (also known as Lake Cocibolca) is the
ment of over 30,000 people. largest lake in Central America and the twentieth largest
The no-bid concession was granted without an environ- globally, covering 8144 square kilometers (km2; Schwoerbel
mental assessment, public consultation, or consent from 1987). Overall, 60% of the lake has less than 9 m of depth,
the autonomous indigenous peoples affected by the project. 37% is between 9 m and 15 m, and only 3% of its area is more
In November 2015, the Nicaraguan government issued an than 15 m deep (INFONAC 1972). The current water qual-
environmental permit to begin construction of the canal ity of Lake Nicaragua makes it sufficient for drinking water
project after receiving an environmental and social impact and irrigation (CIRA 2007, 2012). Its productivity is classi-
assessment (ESIA) prepared in 18 months by Environmental fied as between mesotrophic and eutrophic (CIRA 2012).
Resources Management (ERM), an international consult- Currently, some communities, such as Juigalpa and San Juan
ing firm contracted by HKND. The Academy of Sciences of del Sur, receive their drinking water (after treatment) from
Nicaragua organized an international workshop to evaluate the lake. Other water projects for municipal urban areas
the ESIA report (ERM 2015) and to recommend additional (e.g., Granada and Cárdenas) are in the planning process.
steps needed to bring the ESIA process into conformity with Even though many communities depend on rivers and Lake
the guidelines issued by the United Nations Conference Nicaragua for irrigation and municipal water supplies, the
on Environment and Development (UNCED 1992), the canal concession allows water to be diverted from any river
International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA for canal operation. The impact of construction and con-
1999), and the Equator Principles Financial Institutions sequent release of nutrients and other contaminants into
(EPFI 2013). the water may significantly lower water quality and add to
The workshop participants raised serious concerns about municipal water-treatment costs. Lower water quality would
the ESIA’s insufficient data and analyses of the project’s affect future use and may also result in irreversible loss of
impacts on freshwater, terrestrial, coastal, and marine habi- species with potential economic consequences for fisheries
tats, as well as on biological and human communities. The production.
panel is particularly concerned about the risk of immedi-
ate and irreversible impacts from canal construction and Water balance. The regional water balance strongly affects
operation on Lake Nicaragua. This lake is the country’s main the water level within Lake Nicaragua, discharge in the San
freshwater reservoir, and it is a unique ecosystem and an Juan River, and the ability to control salinization and the
essential habitat for endemic cichlid fishes (Muschick et al. effects of soil erosion and nutrient loading to the lake. The
2011) and numerous other species. The canal area is home canal would divert most of the discharge from the Punta
to many protected species, including 20 terrestrial mam- Gorda River, which presently flows to the Caribbean, into
mals, 53 bird species, 16 reptiles and amphibians, and 8 fish Lake Nicaragua. The ESIA claims this would be sufficient
species—all subject to direct impact by the canal (table 1). for operating the Pacific and Caribbean locks. However, dis-
Nicaragua’s Pacific and Caribbean coasts also include coral charge in the Punta Gorda River was not measured by ERM
reefs and endangered marine life (Guzman et  al. 2008). and was simply estimated on the basis of extrapolation from
These biologically diverse ecosystems provide important other rivers. Tributary inputs to Lake Nicaragua used for
economic benefits, such as drinking water, food, ecotourism, lake circulation and salinity modeling were also extrapolated
and transportation, all of which will be affected by dredging, from a single discharge record on one tributary to the lake.
resuspension of sediments, increased salinity, and possible A large reservoir on the canal route (Lake Atlanta; figure 1)
ballast-water leakage or discharge and man-made barriers and another, separate hydropower or storage reservoir will
in Lake Nicaragua and adjacent rivers (Huete-Pérez et  al. further alter the regional water balance. The large surface
2015). The canal would traverse an area of documented areas of the reservoirs will increase evaporative losses, espe-
seismic and volcanic activity (e.g., Funk et  al. 2009). The cially during dry El Nino years. Combined with water with-
region is also frequently exposed to extreme events, such as drawal from Lake Nicaragua for lock operation, this could
prolonged droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, tropical storms, affect the water quantity and quality of the lake and could
and landslides (e.g., Leiva and Shankar 2001, Holt-Giménez also limit the ability to maintain minimum ecological flows
2002, Granzow de la Cerda et al. 2012). Intense rainfall and in the Punta Gorda River downstream from Lake Atlanta.
seismic activity along newly formed, steeply sloping terrain Without an accurate estimate of river discharge in the Punta
increase landslides and soil erosion (Devoli et  al. 2007). Gorda River and for the main tributaries to Lake Nicaragua,
These events also would increase the need for continued it is impossible to predict whether the diverted flow will be
dredging to operate the canal. sufficient for lock operation and for minimizing long-term
The expert panel assembled by the Academy of Sciences salinization of Lake Nicaragua. Furthermore, although cli-
of Nicaragua consolidated its discussions around five gen- mate change was considered in the ESIA, the water-balance
eral topics: water and sediments, biodiversity, natural haz- analysis focused only on results from one model through
ards and risks, social and economic implications, and 2070. It is also unclear how changes in temperature and
international standards. precipitation were translated to changes in runoff and

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 Overview Articles

Table 1a. The mammal (20) species with protected status found in the canal zone (ERM 2015, volume 12).
Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Tamandua mexicana Northern Tamandua (anteater) International
Panthera onca Jaguar International
Choloepus hoffmanni Hoffmann’s two-toed sloth International
Bradypus variegatus Brown-throated three-toed sloth International
Cebus capucinus White-faced monkey International
Alouatta palliata Mantled howler monkey International
Ateles geoffroyi Geoffroy’s spider monkey International
Agouti paca Lowland paca National
Dasyprocta punctata Central American Agouti National
Potos flavus Kinkajou International
Nasua narica White-nosed coati International
Puma concolor Puma International
Leopardus pardalis Ocelot International
Leopardus wiedii Margay International
Puma yaguarondi Jaguarunid International
Dasypus novemcintus Nine-banded armadillo National
Odocoileus virginiana White-tailed deer National
Tapirus bairdii Baird’s tapir International
Tayassu pecari White-lipped peccary National
Trichechus manatus West Indian Manatee International

Table 1b. The bird (53) species with protected status found in the canal zone (ERM 2015, volume 12).
Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Dendrocynga autumnalis Black-bellied whistling duck National
Cairina moschata Muscovy duck National
Ortalis vetula Plain chachalaca National
Crypturellus soui Little tinamou National
Tinamus major Great tinamou National
Pteroglossur torquatus Collared aracari International
Ramphastos sulfuratus Keel-billed toucan International
Ara ambiguus Great green macaw International
Ara macao Scarlet macaw International
Amazona albifrons White-fronted amazon International
Amazona auropalliata Yellow-naped amazon International
Amazona autumnalis Red-lored amazon International
Pionus senilis White-crowned parrot International
Amazona farinosa Mearly amazon International
Aratinga finschi Finsch’s parakeet International
Aratinga nana Olive-throated parakeet International
Aratinga canicularis Orange-fronted parakeet International
Brotogeris jugularis Orange-chinned parakeet International
Laterallus albigularis White-throated crake National
Aramides cajanea Gray-necked wood rail National
Platalea ajaja Roseate spoonbill International
Burhinus bistriatus Double-striped thick-knee International
Thalasseus elegans Elegant tern International
Ardea alba Great egret International
Ardea herodias Great blue heron International
Mesembrinbis cayennensis Green ibis International

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Overview Articles

Table 1b. (Continued).

Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Sarcoramphus papa King vulture International
Pandion haliaetus Osprey International
Accipiter superciliosus Tiny hawk International
Leptodon cayanensis Gray-headed kite International
Elanoides forficatus Swallow-tailed kite International
Ictinia plumbea Plumbeous kite International
Geranospiza caerulescens Crane hawk International
Buteo magnirostris Roadside hawk International
Buteo platypterus Broad-winged hawk International
Buteo nitidus Gray-lined hawk International
Buteo swainsoni Swainson’s hawk International
Buteo albicaudatus White-tailed hawk International
Parabuteo unicinctus Harris hawk International
Busarellus nigricolis Black-collared hawk International
Elanus leucurus White-tailed hawk International
Chondrohierax uncinatus Hook-billed kite International
Caracara cheriway Crested caracara International
Herpetotheres cachinnas Laughing falcon International
Falco rufigularis Bat falcon International
Falco sparverrius American kestrel International
Falco peregrinus Peregrine falcon International
Porphyrio martinicus Purple gallinule International
Gallinula chloropus Common moorhen International
Aphanotriccus capitalis Tawny-chested flycatcher International
Turdus grayi Clay-colored thrush National
Quiscalus nicaraguensis Nicaraguan grackle International
Icterus galbula Baltimore oriole National

Table 1c. The amphibian (3) species with protected status found in the canal zone (ERM 2015, volume 12).
Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Agalychnis callidryas Red-eyed tree frog National
Dendrobates auratus Green-and-black poison frog National, International
Oophaga pumilio Strawberry poison frog National, International

Table 1d. The reptile (13) species with protected status found in the canal zone (ERM 2015, volume 12).
Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Chelonia mydas Green sea turtle National, International
Iguana iguana Green iguana National
Ctenosaura smilis Black iguana National
Basiliscus plumifrons Double-crested basilisk National
Basiliscus vittatus Brown basilisk National
Lepidochelys olivacea Olive Ridley sea turtle International
Crocodylus acutus American crocodile International
Caiman crocodilus Spectacled caiman National
Kinosternon scorpioides Scorpion mud turtle National
Rhinoclemmys annulata Brown wood turtle National
Rhinoclemmys funerea Black river turtle National
Boa constrictor Common boa National
Lampropeltis triangulum Milk snake National

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 Overview Articles

Table 1e. The fish (8 species with protected status found in the canal zone (ERM 2015, volume 12).
Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Pristis perotteti Large-tooth sawfish International
Pristis pectinata Small-tooth sawfish International
Carcharhinus leucas Bull shark International
Atractosteus tropicus Tropical gar National
Centropomus pectinatus Tarpon snook National
Megalops atlanticus Atlantic tarpon National
Thunnus obesus Big-eye tuna National, International
Thunnus albacares Yellow fin National, International

Table 1f. The invertebrate (5) species with protected status found in the canal zone (ERM 2015, volume 12).
Scientific Name Common Name Level of Protection
Anadara similis Ark cockle National
Anadara tuberculosa Pustulose ark National
Macrobranchium spp. Bigclaw river shrimp National
Penaeus stylirostris Blue shrimp National
Penaeus vannamei Whiteleg shrimp National

evaporation rates or even whether decreased discharge deeper sections of the lake will lead to deoxygenation and
simulated for the Punta Gorda River was incorporated into the loss of habitat for fish and other key components of
the water balance for the whole lake circulation and salinity the lake food web. The ESIA included a projected increase
model. If drought duration and frequency increase as is pre- of 500-milligrams-per-liter salinity in the lake, enough to
dicted by current climate models, the biological diversity of jeopardize its use for irrigation and potable water (because
the rivers and surrounding rainforests as well as the capacity of exceeding the secondary standard for total dissolved sol-
to operate the canal effectively and efficiently may be greatly ids) and for affecting the food web’s plankton and benthic
affected. organisms. The ESIA notes that “HKND should identify the
The workshop participants identified several fundamental specific salinity mitigation measures it would propose and
weaknesses in the ESIA and shared the many concerns raised re-evaluate the potential for salinity impacts.” The work-
by ERM. According to the ESIA, “a comprehensive water shop participants concluded that additional analysis should
balance should be completed that closes the following gaps: describe how salinity will be controlled in the canal and in
an updated, detailed bathymetric survey of Lake Nicaragua Lake Nicaragua, and it must include a calibrated and vali-
(including the frequently inundated lake shore areas), analy- dated salinity model that accounts for lake dynamics.
sis at daily time scale (stream flow, evapotranspiration, and
lake level), updated rating curve for the San Juan River out- Sediment re-suspension and eutrophication.  The massive excava-
flow, updated evaluation of evapotranspiration from the fre- tion and dredging during construction and operation would
quently inundated shoreline areas, projected increased water likely lead to altered nutrient concentrations, lower levels of
consumption, and the effects of climate change, especially dissolved oxygen, increased turbidity, and the possible growth
drought conditions.” The ESIA also pointed out that “HKND of toxic algal and cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Cocibolca.
should prepare an updated and more comprehensive water These impacts will likely be exacerbated by high wind veloc-
balance to confirm the results of the preliminary studies and ity across the lake. Dredging would further disturb large
the adequacy of water supply for Project operations without quantities of lake sediments, affecting water transparency. The
impacting water levels in Lake Nicaragua” (ERM 2015). resulting reduction in light penetration into the water column
HKND has not demonstrated that water levels—as well as would reduce primary production by diatoms and other algae
water quantity and quality in the lake and in the San Juan that sustain the fisheries and native species. This mixing of
River—can be sustained. sediments, toxins, and nutrients would affect the lake’s abil-
ity to serve as a drinking-water and irrigation supply and to
Salinity.  The operation of the canal could alter the physical support fisheries and provide habitat for numerous freshwater
and chemical properties of freshwater habitats. Because species. According to the ESIA, high concentrations of arse-
seawater is likely to enter the lake during canal operation, nic, mercury, and pesticide concentrations are found in the
the salinity and density stratification of Lake Nicaragua sediments, underscoring the potential for increased contami-
will increase over time. The density stratification of some nation by proposed dredging activities (ERM 2015).

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Multiple impacts on water quality resulting from sediment (zooplankton) that form the basis of the lake’s food chain.
re-suspension and the mobilization of contaminants would These food resources for fish would be diminished and
occur throughout all phases of the project: from excavation could rapidly be replaced by massive blooms of cyanobacte-
and construction to operation (oil tanker and container ria that are known to produce toxins for fishes and people.
traffic) and maintenance dredging. These incidents, exacer-
bated by potential incidental or accidental chemical releases Biodiversity and ecosystems
from ships, could lead to the bioaccumulation of toxins in Direct and indirect impacts on biodiversity are especially
the biota. An analysis is needed of possible health hazards important in highly diverse tropical regions where ecosys-
from the remobilization of arsenic, mercury, and pesticides; tems face multiple threats (Gibson et  al. 2011). The canal
accelerated eutrophication due to release of nitrogen and project presents potentially large and irreversible impacts on
phosphorus from sediments; fish kills resulting from de- marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems threatening
oxygenation and phytotoxin production from cyanobacte- critical forests and wetlands, including the Cerro Silva and
rial blooms; and hydrocarbon spills during canal operation. Indio Maiz nature reserves and the San Miguelito Ramsar
The last bathymetric study of Lake Nicaragua was under- wetlands (summarized in table 2). The immediate dam-
taken in 1972 (INFONAC 1972). Since then, the watershed age to these ecosystems could include loss of species and
has undergone widespread deforestation and substantial habitat connectivity. Major impacts on migratory species of
increases in erosion, causing disproportionate sedimenta- freshwater species with complex amphidromous life cycles
tion in the lake. An updated bathymetric evaluation of the (e.g., Macrobrachium carcinus) are likely to result from the
entire lake using modern techniques is imperative. A thor- proposed dam construction and flooding within the Rio
ough study of the sediments’ characteristics and their stra- Punta Gorda drainage. Research on similar species in other
tigraphy based on numerous profiles of deep sediment cores tropical rivers has documented the need for these migratory
distributed throughout the 107-km length of lake is needed species to have access to free-flowing rivers (e.g., McDowall
to determine how much and how long dredging would be 2007, Kikkert et  al. 2009, Bauer 2013, Covich 2014). Fish
needed to construct and operate the canal. The ESIA pre- migrations in and out of Lake Nicaragua through the Rio
sented results from only one profile of a shallow sediment San Juan (e.g., Thorson 1982) might also be affected by the
core, which was in turn used by HKND for structural design proposed dredging operations. Midas cichlids are endemic
plans. The ESIA noted that a “single lake core is inadequate to Nicaragua’s crater lakes (Mallet et al. 2009, Barluenga and
to characterize sediment stratigraphy.” The ESIA concluded Meyer 2010). Several species that live in Lake Nicaragua
that HKND must “conduct additional sediment borings require a connection to the Atlantic and migrate up and
and sampling in Lake Nicaragua to better characterize the down the San Juan River and other rivers. Among those are
stratigraphy of the sediments and their physical properties four species of snooks (Centropomus ensiferus, nigrescent,
to confirm that the proposed dredging and disposal strategy parallelus, pectinous), Megaflops atlanticus, the bull shark
would be effective.” The analysis of a more complete sedi- (Carcharhinus leucas), and the tropical gar (Atractosteus
ment characterization could have “the potential to require tropics). About 90 species are found in the San Juan and
changes to the canal design.” Punta Gorda River drainage systems. Approximately 30%
Plans for the deposition and storage of the extracted are found in only one or the other, and only about 30%
sediment material include the creation of a series of 40-km2 are found in both (Axel Meyer, Department of Biology,
islands within Lake Nicaragua. Sediment mounds are also Konstanz University, Konstanz, Germany, personal com-
planned parallel to the dredged channel in the lake and are munication, 15 April 2016). Impacts from the canal project
to hold 75% of all dredged material from the lake. These would likely affect many species. Inundation of rainforest
mounds and islands will contain materials that are biologi- habitats and rivers during construction of Lake Atlanta (399
cally, chemically, and physically active, with a high risk of km2) would destroy terrestrial ecosystems and eliminate
contaminant release. Contaminant release during sediment riverine habitats for newly discovered endemic species of
resuspension should be studied. The dredging-management fishes and invertebrates in the Rio Punta Gorda watershed.
plan lacked sufficient information to evaluate likely impacts This large water reservoir will provide the water to operate
on water quality during initial and maintenance dredging in the locks for the canal system.
this frequently wind-mixed shallow lake. A complete study The ESIA quantifies the direct loss of ecosystems due
of lake hydrodynamics is needed and would most likely lead to conversion for canal construction but does not assess
to changes in the canal design and construction. the number of species lost or the breakdown in ecosystem
The workshop participants recommend analyzing the function at a larger scale. From the influx of sediments
effects of salinization and sedimentation from increased into aquatic and marine ecosystems to the disruption of
landslides on lake biota. The increased turbidity resulting continuity in terrestrial, the potential for loss of ecosystem
from the initial dredging and maintenance operations to function is large (DeFries et al. 2004, Vaughn 2010). Instead
retain the required depth could alter the lake’s food web. of attempting to address potential side effects, the ESIA sim-
The re-suspension of nutrients and toxins in the sediments ply states “a larger portion” of habitat would be “indirectly
could alter algal growth as well as filter-feeding consumers impacted by the project.” In table 2, we summarize the ESIA’s

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Table 2. Identifiable threats to ecosystems and biodiversity. The ESIA reports lowland rainforest, swamps, and middle
and Caribbean slope rivers as those that would experience the most major impacts.
Ecosystem Threats Area/ River Length Potential Area/Length Key Species
Directly Affected Indirectly Affected
Lowland Rain Forest Habitat loss, 524 ha Middle 18,800 ha 62,780 ha Caribbean Jaguar, Baird’s Tapir, Great
fragmentation Caribbean Green Macaw, Rosewood
(Dalberghia retusa), 17
Endangered species
Tropical Dry Forest and Habitat loss, 2232 ha Pacific 5346 ha Pacific Puma, Royal Cedar
Scrub fragmentation (Cedrella odorata)
Mangrove Habitat loss, 48 ha Brito Waterbirds
fragmentation
Freshwater Wetland Habitat Loss, Changes in 140 ha Middle Jabiru, Neotropical Migrant
including San Miguelito Hydrology 438 ha Caribbean Birds
RAMSAR Site
Swamp Habitat loss, 664 ha Raphia taedigera, Baird’s
fragmentation, complete Tapir, Jaguar
removal
Lake Nicaragua – Suspension of sediments, 196 km2 7954 km2 Cichlids, Aquatic
Freshwater Lake spills, invasive species Invertebrates, Plankton,
Bacterial Communities
Rivers Changes in hydrology, 57.5 km Pacific Cichlids, Poeciliids
spills, invasive species, 102.5 km Middle in Punta Gorda River
flooding 968.5 km Caribbean drainage
Beach Lighted development, Green Sea Turtles
Coral Reef Sedimentation, chemical Corals, Many Fish Species
pollution
Note: The 62,780-ha figure represents the loss of agricultural land and grassland in the canal path east of Lake Nicaragua, which would cause
the displacement of ranchers and farmers. The historical pattern of agricultural colonists has been to move eastward into rainforest areas
(Stevens et al. 2011). The majority of this potential impact would occur in the Indio Maiz, Cerro Silva, and Punta Gorda protected areas. The
5346 ha are for agricultural lands lost in the canal’s western sector, resulting in the displacement of farmers and ranchers. Of the 94,000
hectares (ha) of terrestrial habitat loss, 65,000 ha of loss would occur within protected areas. Sources: ERM 2015, tables 7.3-3, 7.3-7, 7.3-9,
7.4-4, 7.4-10, and 7.4-14.

stated extent of potential direct and indirect loss of terres- coastal marine ecosystems in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific
trial and freshwater ecosystems. Ocean. Sediment accumulation in estuarine environments
Indirect ecosystem impacts can produce a cascade of and the continental shelf will change existing biochemical
effects resulting from losses of essential keystone species patterns, influencing nutrient cycling in the affected marine
that maintain population balances (Dudgeon 2000, Wright environment and disturbing primary production in estua-
2005, Hadley et  al. 2014). The long-term interruption rine and coastal waters (Reis-Filho and Alcantara-Santos
of movements of numerous species of wildlife (figure 2) 2014). These potential effects on fisheries need further
through the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor would dis- research to assess their long-term ecological impact. The
rupt migratory species and natural dispersal of populations workshop participants concluded that the ESIA has serious
that sustain genetic diversity (Harvey et al. 2008, DeClerck shortcomings in the analysis of the impact of the proposed
et al. 2010). Lake Atlanta reservoir construction would limit canal on biodiversity and ecosystems in Nicaragua.
migratory species now using the Punta Gorda River drain-
age network to connect coastal and estuarine populations. Freshwater biodiversity.  Freshwater habitats harbor exception-
Canal construction would rapidly displace many people ally high levels of biodiversity (Hawksworth and Kalin-
and accelerate the migration of farmers into protected Arroyo 1995) and have a particularly high risk of losing
areas, intensifying deforestation and pressures on natural biodiversity because of anthropogenic impacts (Dudgeon
resources. The resulting deforestation and increased erosion 2000, Sala et al. 2000). Canal construction threatens fresh-
would greatly affect the water quality and runoff to streams water habitat quality and would most likely lead to habitat
flowing into Lake Nicaragua (Carey et  al. 2015). The sedi- fragmentation, as well as invasion by nonnative species.
mentation of downstream habitats would eliminate access The flooding of river catchments to create storage and
to essential habitats needed for the reproduction of fish and hydropower reservoirs would irreversibly alter free-flowing
invertebrates that help sustain the lake’s fisheries and water rivers that provide essential habitats for endemic species.
quality (Vörösmarty and Sahagian 2000, Jones et  al. 2012, The canal also would connect currently separate freshwater
Winemiller et al. 2014). habitats. Specifically, the Punta Gorda River and the San
The canal project has significant impacts and repercus- Juan River watersheds would be connected, which would
sions not only for rivers, lakes, and wetlands but also for drastically change the routes of dispersal and migration

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Overview Articles

evaluate the methods of data collection

and analysis for marine biodiversity. For
instance, the ESIA included the results of
sampling the marine benthic organisms
from only one site on the Pacific coast
in an estuarine habitat on the basis of a
single sample in one season.
The ESIA did not consider the
potential impacts of the new freshwater
outflows into the Pacific marine envi-
ronment relative to seasonal changes in
salinity. To evaluate a project’s impact
on ecosystems, the relative importance
of species interactions needs to be
determined in terms of their contribu-
tion to food-web robustness (Gilarranz
et  al. 2016). Species interactions are
crucial to the maintenance of marine
biodiversity, and although the ESIA
briefly acknowledges the role of plank-
ton as the foundation of a food web,
Figure 2. A jaguar near the community of Punta Aguila (the indigenous the potential impacts must be clearly
name is Bankukuk Taik) captured by a camera trap installed by the Michigan elucidated.
State University. The location of the photograph is directly in the footprint The ESIA indicated that “mitigation
of the canal. A jaguar was also photographed at the same location in 2014. will be implemented based on current
Photograph: Gerald R. Urquhart. international standards.” However, for a
project of this scale, mitigation will be
for many species. An artificial connection of these water- extensive and must be integrated within a detailed plan to
sheds would have potentially detrimental consequences define requirements for protecting the affected ecosystems.
for several species and families (e.g., Poeciliidae, Cichlidae, There are several threats that could have serious negative
and Characidae), such as the hybridization of genetically consequences for the productivity of marine fisheries.
distinct, locally adapted populations or extinction by spe-
cies replacement. Either scenario would lead to the loss of Terrestrial biodiversity.  Project development will alter 93,800
unique genetic diversity. ha of terrestrial ecosystems. Over 21,000 ha of the area
The potential for impacts from invasive species related are covered by broadleaf forest, including 18,800 ha of
to canal construction and operation remain unstudied. For tropical rainforest in key segments of the Mesoamerican
example, the devil fish, Hypostomus panamensis, represents a Biological Corridor. In the western terrestrial canal seg-
recent invasion of the San Juan River system and is disrupt- ment, 11 endangered (EN) and critically endangered (CR)
ing the food web composed of native species. species would be threatened by habitat loss and distur-
Furthermore, construction of the canal could drastically bance, and an additional 17 EN or CR species face similar
increase the number of nonnative, invasive species associ- threats (ERM 2015, table 7.5-1). On the Caribbean side of
ated with shipping and boat traffic (Muirhead et  al. 2015). the canal, canal and subproject development would result
The potential for invasive parasites and competing nonna- in the loss of 664 ha of tropical swamp forest dominated by
tive fishes to disrupt the lake’s food web is substantial (e.g., Raphia taedigera, considered a key habitat for endangered
Smith and Bermingham 2005, Choudhury et  al. 2013). No wildlife, including Baird’s tapirs (Tapirus bairdii; Jordan
analyses of the impacts on subsistence and recreational fish- and Urquhart 2013).
ing or the loss of native species were presented in the ESIA. The ESIA concluded that “the project would unavoidably
Fishing, especially within Lake Nicaragua, constitutes an impact primary rainforest and the Punta Gorda River, which
important livelihood for many Nicaraguans. have biodiversity values which cannot be replaced” (ERM
2015). Although the ESIA indicated a need for additional
Marine biodiversity.  The impact of the canal on marine bio- long-term biodiversity studies, it focused on a list of species
diversity was inadequately addressed in the ESIA. The without analysis of population sizes, and extinction risks
analysis focused on species lists and presence versus absence were not evaluated. The estimates of the terrestrial biodiver-
rather than the estimates of population densities needed sity of Pacific, Central, and Caribbean regions were based
to estimate the long-term viability of the many at-risk spe- on only six sample locations in each region. The sampling of
cies. Insufficient information was provided by the ESIA to terrestrial mammals was based on camera trapping (limited

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 Overview Articles

place to evaluate whether the standards are met and because

the Ministry of Environment (mandated for environmental
issues) does not have the necessary human and institutional
capacities. Ultimately, the ESIA concludes that the benefits
of mitigation “must be tempered with the acknowledgement
that the loss of primary rainforest … would have lasting sig-
nificant adverse effects.”

Natural hazards and risk management

Nicaragua is uniquely vulnerable to damage and loss from
hurricanes and tropical storms. It ranks twenty-fifth in the
world for the highest potential for high economic losses
from natural hazards and thirtieth in earthquake vulner-
ability (ERM 2015). The ESIA recognized that HKND
has not provided a formal hazard or risk study for the
project although areas of concern include 22 tectonic
Figure 3. A view of Ometepe Island with its twin volcanoes faults along the canal route (ERM 2015). No analysis is
illustrates the proximity of a major fault line to the canal provided on methodologies for risk management associ-
route. Photograph: Andreas Härer. ated with fault movement and associated consequences.
The proposed canal route also crosses a zone with a high
to 190 camera-trap days) and detected less than 50% of the risk of volcanic activity, crossing the lake just to the south
known species for the region (Jordan and Urquhart 2013, of the twin volcanoes of Ometepe Island (figure 3), but the
Jordan 2015). The mitigation measures suggested by ERM ESIA included only minimal analysis of volcanic impacts.
are unlikely to be useful for rebuilding forests or preventing Furthermore, the ESIA postulates tsunamis with a wave
substantial biodiversity loss. height of only 1.62 m, which is not historically accurate.
Sustaining forest cover over long periods of time to During the tsunami of 1992, sections of Nicaragua’s Pacific
respond to extremely variable rainfall is increasingly chal- coast experienced waves up to 9 m high (SINAPRED 2005).
lenging given the uncertainty of climate-change impacts Moreover, the ESIA does not consider the compounded
and the resulting movements of people affected by these possibility of volcanic activity and geological faulting result-
natural disturbances, such as droughts and hurricanes ing in tsunamis originating in and affecting Lake Nicaragua
(e.g., Wright et al. 2007, Condit 2015). During wet periods, (SINAPRED 2005).
even where forest cover is sustained, landslides and bank The ESIA noted that additional studies are required on
erosion accelerate during intense rainfall on steep terrain the stability of steep slopes along the canal route. The slopes,
(Devoli et  al. 2007). The loss of young trees and other above and below water, are exposed to seismic, hurricane,
vegetative cover during severe drought and associated flood, and slide hazards. However, the ESIA did not provide
wildfires sets up conditions for greater erosion during the a methodology to manage this risk, even though slope stabil-
next period of wet years (Granzow de la Cerda et al. 2012). ity is extremely important for canal maintenance.
Eastern Nicaragua is vulnerable to loss of forest given its The workshop participants emphasized that studies on
geographic location and exposure to disturbances from hazard risks must be conducted before final design or con-
tectonic events, tropical storms and hurricanes, and El struction considerations are completed. The scale of the pro-
Nino–related droughts and fires. Canal construction will posed canal and the obvious high-risk situation in Nicaragua
exacerbate these disturbances; nevertheless, these dynam- require a much more in-depth and quantitative analysis.
ics were not addressed by the ESIA. Previous publications
have recommended long-standing studies to assess bio- Social and economic implications
diversity in the canal zone (Huete-Pérez et  al. 2015). The One of the project’s key impacts will be the physical displace-
necessity of long-term, systematic data on ecohydrologic ment of human populations. The canal construction and
and environmental impacts of canal construction is now operation would require temporary and permanent expro-
well documented by numerous studies of the watershed priation of approximately 2900 km2 of land—about 2.3%
and surrounding areas of rainforest habitats (e.g., Condit of the total surface area of Nicaragua. Significant impacts
et al. 1995, 2001). will directly affect the livelihoods and well-being of at least
The ESIA asserts that the affected areas in the eastern sec- 30,000 people. According to the ESIA, however, none of the
tion of the project are already undergoing rapid loss of forest information pertaining to resettlement planning has been
cover and that the project, through mitigation, could “decel- made public to date. The ESIA states that, “at the time of
erate or even reverse these trends.” However, it is not clear this assessment the temporary resettlement areas were not
how international standards to protect forests can be ensured identified, and therefore impacts could not be assessed and
during construction given that there is no mechanism in rated” (ERM 2015). Increased internal immigration could

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Overview Articles

Box 1. Key deficiencies of the ESIA’s social-impact assessment.

• N
 o quantification of populations indirectly affected is provided, and no specific data are considered for the economic displacement
analyses. Mitigation measures are incompletely described and vague and therefore not reliable. The proposed mitigation measures
would incur substantial costs that are not considered.
• N
 o evaluation of the risk, magnitude, and cost of physical and/or economic displacement was conducted. Moreover, the field data
are inadequate, and the risks and costs are not quantified. Quantifying the risks and costs should be paramount to an ESIA report.
• T
 he social impacts for autonomous indigenous peoples are reduced to a mere list, and the social and cultural magnitudes of the
canal project impacts are not considered in the analysis. Afro-descendant and indigenous peoples, including the Rama and Kriol
communities residing within the project’s eastern canal segment, will be significantly affected. They have a constitutional right to
be consulted on major projects and policies that affect their rights and way of life, according to international best practices.

exacerbate already hostile interethnic conflicts for land, ter- These economic impacts are all noted by the ESIA,
ritorial control and natural resources. but they are not quantified. In order to make a meaning-
Land expropriation and involuntary resettlement pro- ful assessment of the likely net impact on the Nicaraguan
cesses have not been set up to meet international standards. economy and balance of payments, a quantitative analysis
The ESIA states, “ERM is not aware of an official consent is required—something that was done in Panama in 1966
from the indigenous peoples affected by the Project” (ERM when a new interoceanic canal was being considered there
2015), which violates Afro-Caribbean and indigenous and (CEPAL 1967). The requisite macroeconomic and general
communities’ land rights and autonomy. Box 1 describes equilibrium models of the Nicaraguan economy exist, have
some of the gaps in ESIA’s social-impact assessment. More been used by researchers investigating similar issues, and
generally, the ESIA lacks an historical social dimension should have been used for the ESIA (Sánchez et al. 2008).
for physical and economic displacement. Considering Economists also measure, in monetary terms, the value
Nicaragua’s recent history of civil war, irregular immigra- that people place on changes in the natural environment—
tion, and social and ethnic conflicts, emphasis must be given known as nonmarket valuation. The ESIA applied this
to the cultural heritage, human rights, and well-being of approach to some environmental impacts but not others.
affected populations at every stage of the project. It did not value the impacts on water supply or fishing. It
With regard to the impact on the Nicaraguan economy, did value the loss of various types of habitat, but not in a
much of the construction materials and equipment—and manner that permitted a meaningful valuation of individual
half of the construction workers—will come from abroad. ecosystem services provided by these habitats (Vaughn
The large influx of capital into a small country during con- 2010). Instead, it used highly generic values from two papers
struction will cause a boom, but the end of this influx when surveying the overall literature with limited relevance for the
construction is completed will cause a sharp downshift in specific habitats in Nicaragua. The result is an absence of a
economic activity, making for a difficult economic transi- meaningful measure of the nonmarket value of the environ-
tion. When the canal is operating, it will create jobs and mental resources damaged by the canal.
generate income in the sectors directly involved and in other
supply and support sectors, but the extent to which this will International standards
occur is limited. The ESIA process must be carried out “while there is still
The direct impact on employment during the construc- an opportunity to modify (or, if appropriate, abandon the
tion phase would not be significant (less than 1% of the proposal),” (IAIA 1999). The decision by the Nicaraguan
national labor force will find new employment). Following government to allow construction by HKND prior to a
construction, the employment opportunities created by the thorough ESIA undermines the intent of impact assessment
canal’s operation are unlikely to keep pace with the natural and ignores best-practices principles exemplified by the
growth of Nicaragua’s labor force. The canal will have little 1999 Principles of Environmental Impact Assessment Best
impact on average productivity and is unlikely to pull the Practices (IAIA 1999).
country out of poverty. The workshop participants concluded that at least 6 of
Another economic concern involves what has been called the 14 best-practices principles from IAIA were significantly
the Dutch disease. In a small, open economy such as deficient in the ESIA: rigorous, relevant, adaptive, participa-
Nicaragua’s, the surge in domestic demand due to a large tive, credible, and transparent. The remaining principles are
influx of capital during construction can raise domestic purposive, practical, cost effective, efficient, focused, inter-
prices, especially for nontradable goods and services. This disciplinary, integrated, and systematic.
can have the effect of raising the real exchange rate and mak-
ing other Nicaraguan exports such as tourism less competi- Rigorous.  The ESIA presents inadequate assessments in many
tive, which would be economically damaging. areas, as we outlined in other parts of this article. Particularly

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 Overview Articles

egregious examples include lack of sediment cores for Lake harm or benefit local populations, including indigenous
Nicaragua, cursory mention of natural hazards, and minimal communities, and the legality of many aspects of the project
evaluation of impacts on native peoples. have been strongly questioned.
The proposed Interoceanic Canal Project came into
Relevant.  Information on decisionmaking is lacking in regard being in record time, and ERM’s ESIA report, contracted
to mitigating impacts in all areas. Furthermore, the public directly by HKND, was likewise produced quickly—within
has not been properly informed of the potential long-term an 18-month timeframe. This is an insufficient period to
damages and losses from the project and that its possible conduct thorough data collection and to interpret the find-
financial benefits may have been overstated. ings and generate realistic mitigation strategies for a project
of this scale. To avoid deleterious and costly mistakes—many
Adaptive.  The ESIA identifies no mechanisms for adaptive irreversible—long-term studies providing high-quality base-
management, including obviously important mechanisms line data must be performed well before a project begins
for water-quality monitoring and response, handling griev- construction. Therefore, the panel recommends that HKND
ances, and mitigating loss of biodiversity. must establish an insurance bond to cover all possible
disasters, as is common international practice to insure
Participative.  The ESIA process to date has had minimal public contingent liabilities (Cardenas et  al. 2007). This bond is
participation in information gathering and interpretation. In particularly important given that HKND has been reported
May 2015, HKND formally submitted the ESIA to Nicaraguan to create a consortium of 15 associated companies spread
authorities. However, it remained inaccessible to the public over China, Netherlands, Caiman Islands, and Nicaragua
until November 2015, after government approval of the ESIA (Enríquez et al. 2014), which would diminish HKND’s liabil-
report (HKND 2015). Releasing the ESIA only after the “envi- ity and hinder Nicaragua’s ability to fully recuperate the costs
ronmental permit” had been granted leaves no time for local of recovering from a disaster.
scientists and the public to contribute and provide a mean- The ESIA concludes that “there are several areas where
ingful response. The lack of information and opportunities the project cannot meet these [international] standards”
for widespread public input during the 2 years of the project’s and points out many risks and gaps it could not address in
development may explain in part why it has been so contro- the time provided. The ESIA also acknowledges that the
versial and challenged in the courts by opponents. project has many risks. In the Project Description, the ESIA
affirms that “all routes for a Canal de Nicaragua through
Credible.  The ESIA process has been largely a closed process the Study Area would have significant environmental and
carried out without independent review, with the exception social impacts, as essentially all of the economically feasible
of a 2-day ERM-sponsored meeting attended primarily by routes would need to traverse internationally recognized
US experts who reviewed drafts of 4 chapters of the 14-vol- protected areas, legally recognized indigenous lands, and
ume environmental assessment. The socioeconomic aspects Lake Nicaragua, all of which under normal situations would
of the ESIA were not available for discussion. The meeting’s be considered no-go areas” (ERM 2015).
conclusion was that ERM’s environmental study contained Megaprojects such as this typically require many years of
significant gaps (FIU 2015). Although ERM responded to assessment and planning to determine their feasibility and to
the critiques of that meeting in the final draft, the scope design appropriate mitigation measures. For instance, a sea-
of the ESIA was not altered in a meaningful way given the level canal proposed for Darien, Panama, required a 10-year
limited time constraints. Following ESIA approval, local study before being abandoned in the 1970s as unfeasible
scientists, conservationists, and community leaders raised (Covich 2015). The construction of China’s Three Gorges
concerns about the procedural irregularities. Leaders of Dam, which proceeded on the basis of an ESIA of scope and
the country’s indigenous and Afro-Caribbean communities study time similar to those of the report presented by ERM
maintain that government officials are coercing them to for the canal through Nicaragua, has since become a prime
consent to the proposed canal passing through their autono- example of the unanticipated environmental costs of rushed
mous territory. megaprojects (Stone 2011): frequent landslides, water pollu-
tion, and increased seismic activity. There are many lessons
Transparent.  The ESIA process was carried out with limited learned from the environmental impacts of large construc-
opportunity for broad public or independent-expert input. tion projects within China, such as the upstream and down-
Canal project planners unilaterally decided key factors, such stream effects of creating a large reservoir (Park et al. 2003,
as project location, design, operating procedures, and even Wu et  al. 2004, Yang and Lu 2013). More than a million
the scope of their project’s environmental and social-impact people were relocated at the beginning of the project, and
assessments. The evaluation process, as well as project more than four million people will have to be relocated by
implementation, would gain from being more transparent, 2020, resulting in more than double the official cost of the
being more socially inclusive, and allowing local communi- project (Stone 2008). As the long-term environmental and
ties’ participation in the decisionmaking process. The trans- economic costs escalate, the Chinese government has recog-
parency regarding the manner in which the project could nized the need to resolve problems caused by the vast social,

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Overview Articles

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