A report from the

Deloitte Center for Government Insights

Transportation trends 2020

What are the most transformational trends
in mobility today?
About the authors
Tiffany Dovey Fishman | tfishman@deloitte.com

Tiffany Dovey Fishman is a senior manager with the Deloitte Center for Government Insights. Her
research and client work focuses on how emerging issues in technology, business, and society will
impact organizations. She has written extensively on a wide range of public policy and management
issues, from health and human services reform to the future of transportation and the transformation
of higher education. Her work has appeared in a number of publications, including Public CIO,
Governing, and EducationWeek.

Mahesh Kelkar | mkelkar@deloitte.com

Mahesh Kelkar is the smart cities research leader for the Deloitte Center for Government Insights. His
research focuses on understanding the impact of technology, innovation, and policy on the future of
cities. He closely tracks the federal and state government sectors and focuses on conducting in-depth
research on the intersection of technology with government operations, policy, and decision-making.

Avi Schwartz | avschwartz@deloitte.com

Avi Schwartz is a principal in Transactions/Business Analytics’ Deloitte Risk and Financial Advisory and
leads the Infrastructure and Capital Projects practice for Government and Public Services. He has more
than 20 years of experience working in the construction industry and advising owners of major capital
construction projects. He routinely conducts management and financial controls assessments of
significant capital projects with a goal of improving performance and mitigating strategic and
operational risks. While his clients have included a range of Fortune 500 companies, Schwartz
maintains a special focus on large-scale public sector construction and infrastructure projects,
integrating leading practices from public, private, and global entities so that public sector projects
can be built better.
J. Bryan Nicol | jbnicol@deloitte.com

J. Bryan Nicol is a managing director with Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics LLP. He has
more than 15 years of experience in public service positions, including commissioner of the Indiana
Department of Transportation (INDOT) and Indiana deputy attorney general. For 14 years, Nicol has
worked in engineering and construction consulting, as well as management consulting, helping deliver
more than US$25 billion in transportation programs and projects across the United States.

Rana Sen | rsen@deloitte.com

Rana Sen is a managing director in Deloitte Consulting LLP’s Public Sector practice, leading Deloitte’s
smart city initiative in the United States and supporting Deloitte’s smart city work globally. He has more
than 18 years of experience in implementing and leading major government transformation initiatives
in public health, human services, transportation, and finance and administration. His work with
government agencies includes the development of strategic smart city road maps, implementation of
smart transportation solutions, operations and maintenance of one of the largest civilian financial
administration solutions for the federal government, and automation of long-term care
case management.
About the Deloitte Center for Government Insights

The Deloitte Center for Government Insights shares inspiring stories of government innovation, looking
at what’s behind the adoption of new technologies and management practices. We produce cutting-
edge research that guides public officials without burying them in jargon and minutiae, crystalizing
essential insights in an easy-to-absorb format. Through research, forums, and immersive workshops,
our goal is to provide public officials, policy professionals, and members of the media with fresh
insights that advance an understanding of what is possible in government transformation.

Public Infrastructure and Capital Projects

Deloitte advises government clients on new techniques to analyze, prioritize, finance, and enable
greater visibility into government infrastructure projects to drive improvements in cost, schedule,
and delivery quality. Project and portfolio prioritization, program funding, technology, smart
infrastructure, and governance and delivery are the major pillars providing a framework for
services offered by Deloitte to government organizations.
Contents

Introduction 2

Integrated, frictionless travel 4

Digital identity 7

Customer experience 9

Innovation accelerators 11

AI-augmented mobility 14

Challenges and closing thoughts 18

Looking ahead 20

Endnotes 21
Transportation trends 2020

Introduction

I
F YOU WANT a glimpse into where mobility is behaviors and creating a better real-time
headed in 2020 and beyond, look no further than balance between supply and demand (figure 1).2
the San Diego region. There, the San Diego
Association of Governments (SANDAG) is laying Ultimately, SANDAG hopes to create a more
the foundation for a complete overhaul of the integrated, user-centered, accessible, and
region’s transportation system. The goal is to make affordable transportation system that, in time, will
the system more sustainable, accessible, affordable, supersede the car-centric model that has reigned
and safe, while providing San Diegans’ true since the Model T took to the road in 1908.
transportation alternatives to trips made in
single-occupancy vehicles. San Diego’s sweeping plan is underpinned by five
transformative trends we see shaping the mobility
SANDAG is making this a reality through its “5 Big agenda in 2020 and beyond. They are:
Moves,” which are transformative strategies to:
• Integrated, frictionless travel:
• Leverage technology, sensors, and connectivity Transportation planners see a growing need to
to change the way roads are used and managed. make travel more seamless, with minimal
stoppages or checkpoints. This trend is
• Develop a high-capacity, high-speed, high- manifesting in many ways, including mobility
frequency transit network, that includes new hubs that enable multimodal transportation,
modes of transit and improvements to the rise of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS),
existing services. platforms for ticketless travel, and
innovations in micromobility and
• Introduce new mobility hubs, with a range of last-mile connections.
travel options, to address first- and last-mile
challenges and to deliver a more seamless • Digital identity: Transit and transportation
travel experience. agencies across the country are using digital
technology to increase throughput, improve
• Introduce flexible fleets of on-demand, shared, security, and help drive a better experience for
electric—and eventually, autonomous—vehicles users. This trend includes a move toward digital
that connect to transit within a mobility hub. 1
driver’s licenses to enhance security, and
experimentation with biometric and facial
• Build an integrated platform called “Next OS” recognition to improve efficiency and
that will serve as “the brain of the entire throughput at airports.
transportation system.” Next OS—central to
achieving systemwide optimization—will turn • Customer experience: Transportation
integrated data into insights that planners can agencies and the broader mobility ecosystem
use to better manage transportation systems are placing more emphasis on customer
and the movement of people and goods. In its experience—putting the user’s needs front and
fully-realized state, this platform will help to center and making it easier to use digital
create a “mobility marketplace,” nudging transportation tools. They’re also simplifying

2
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

in-person transactions at local departments of (AI) can harness the power of data, analytics,
motor vehicles, providing better infrastructure and cloud to help reduce travel time, manage
for pedestrians, and offering more inclusive congestion, improve regulatory compliance,
travel options in urban areas. support air traffic control, enable dynamic
policymaking, and deliver many other benefits.
• Innovation accelerators: Transportation
agencies are tapping into private sector In this report, we examine these trends and how
expertise and building public-private coalitions they are reshaping aspects of how people and
to drive innovations in multimodal goods move across the US transportation network—
transportation, autonomous and connected both on the ground and in the air. It is designed to
vehicle technologies, mileage-based pricing assist public transportation leaders who see the
programs, and much more. necessity for change and are looking for innovative
ideas to show the best way forward. Understanding
• AI-augmented mobility: A transportation these trends is a first step in navigating today’s
ecosystem enabled with artificial intelligence fast-changing mobility landscape.

FIGURE 1

A mobility operating system: Core elements of a digital mobility platform

CITY MANAGEMENT AND POLICY

Policy guidance and oversight across
entire transportation system

Road usage Incentives (discounts, travel Real-time traffic

charging vouchers, etc.) management

MOBILITY OPERATING SYSTEM

Digital platform that overlays and connects disparate physical transportation systems

City and citizen engagement

MODULES
Mobility market Infrastructure Mobility
optimization management management

Foundational platform

MOBILITY DEMAND TRANSPORTATION SUPPLY

Mobility demand from across the entire Supply of city’s transportation vehicles and assets
transportation ecosystem
Bikesharing Ridesharing P2P car rental
Travel planning apps Real-time travel data
Freight shipping Private vehicles

Microtransit Public transit Smart parking

Autonomous vehicles Logistics and delivery

Source: Deloitte analysis.3

Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

3
Transportation trends 2020

Integrated, frictionless travel

T
HE PRINCIPLE OF “moving people and goods Los Angeles’ Mobility Plan 2035 divides the
from point A to point B” sounds simple. mobility hub concept into three categories.
Dealing with the entire mobility ecosystem is Neighborhood mobility hubs, which focus on low-
anything but. Cities working to develop the density population areas, include transit,
mobility systems of the future face all sorts of wayfinding, bikesharing, and parking
complexities: varying geographies, different modes infrastructure. Central mobility hubs, designed for
of transport and their interconnections, high-density areas, include carsharing, real-time
corresponding infrastructure requirements, varied transit information, public spaces, and electric
payment methods, the difficulties of identity vehicle charging stations. Regional mobility hubs
management, and much more. are designed for very high-density areas, typically
at the ends of transit lines. Besides the services
But cities are moving ahead, experimenting with available at central mobility hubs, they also offer
new infrastructure models and technologies to lay layover zones for buses, substantial bicycle parking
the foundation for more integrated and seamless facilities, and retail space. The City of Los Angeles
mobility. Some of them, like San Diego, are going received a US$8.4 million federal grant to build 13
even further, entirely reimagining their mobility hubs across the city.6
mobility ecosystems.
Mobility hubs are also an integral part of the San
Diego Forward plan proposed by the 18 cities and
Designing mobility hubs county governments that comprise SANDAG.

A mobility hub locates multiple transportation

services in one place, letting travelers move more The rise of mobility-
seamlessly from one to another. Such a hub, while as-a-service
providing traditional transit services via bus, train,
or light rail, might also: encourage walking; Streaming services, such as Netflix, have
provide racks for bicycles on buses and trains; offer fundamentally changed the way people search for,
bikeshare, rideshare, and carshare programs; consume, and pay for media. Transportation now
operate high frequency, local shuttle services; and stands at a similar frontier.
enable other regional and local transit connections.4
Helsinki’s mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) app, Whim,
With their integrated infrastructure, mobility hubs was one of the first mobility platforms to envision
consolidate public and private modes of an integrated, multimodal future. Since 2016,
transportation to maximize first-mile and last-mile Helsinki residents have used Whim to plan and pay
connectivity. They operate best when cities put for all modes of public and private transportation
them in areas with a high concentration of within the city—be it by train, taxi, bus, carshare,
employment, housing, shopping, and recreation.5 or bikeshare.7 Other jurisdictions are following suit.

4
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Take the Regional Transport District (RTD), which Ticketless public transit
provides public transportation to eight counties in
Colorado, including the city of Denver. RTD In the United Kingdom, transit riders can use the
recently partnered with the developers of the Ticketless mobile-ticketing platform to move from
Transit app to simplify multimodal trip planning. one point to another with minimal friction.11
Users can now plan trips across public and private UrbanThings, the company behind Ticketless, will
mobility providers, including transit systems, ride- soon launch a pilot of the “Be-in/Be-Out” system,
hailing companies, and bikeshare services. The app in which the traveler’s Ticketless app will
also integrates a ticketing platform that lets users communicate via Bluetooth to track their journey
make payments to multiple transport providers at and manage fare collection without them having to
once.8 RTD’s focus is on adding multiple cross- take their phone out, providing a no-stop travel
platform options to its own app, making trip experience.12 Several cities in the United States are
planning and payment more seamless.9 also moving toward mobile and integrated
ticketing. The Las Vegas Monorail was the first
That said, many MaaS applications have struggled public transit system to let passengers use Google
to gain penetration, and getting the full suite of Pay to purchase tickets. Customers of San
transportation modes on a platform can be difficult. Francisco’s 22 transit agencies will soon be able
Questions also remain about how effective MaaS to pay for travel on their mobile devices. And Los
can be in drawing travelers away from private car Angeles plans to improve its TAP Smart Card to
use.10 Increasingly, the most successful models are integrate payments across different mobility
those with close collaboration or sponsorship from options.13
the local transport authority, as in the case of RTD.

5
Transportation trends 2020

MAKING A CASE FOR MICROMOBILITY

New forms of micromobility, such as electric scooters and shared bikes, promise to better connect
people with public transit, reduce reliance on private cars, and make better use of travel space, all
while reducing greenhouse gas emissions (especially as vehicle life spans improve). Micromobility is
growing more popular (figure 2), but it also suffers from growing pains, and it often faces resistance, as
seen in the sometimes rocky relationship between municipal governments and e-scooter companies.
Although still in its infancy, micromobility could potentially help solve the first-mile/last-mile problem
and narrow the gap between the transit services a community provides and the services its residents
need. As with any other disruptive innovation, however, proponents of micromobility must find ways to
balance the needs of cities, citizens, and service providers. To succeed, stakeholders will need to develop
relationships built on trust, while still allowing competition and new entrants.
[Read more: Small is beautiful—making micromobility work for citizens, cities, and providers.]

FIGURE 2

Total shared micromobility trips in the United States (in millions)

Total shared mobility trips
90 84
80

70

60

50

40
28 35
30 22
18
20 13
10
2.4 4.5
0.321
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Note: Total shared micromobility trips comprise station-based bikeshare, dockless bikeshare, and scooter share.
Source: National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO), “Shared micromobility in the US: 2018.”
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

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 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Digital identity

T
RANSPORTATION AND BORDER protection they must wait in queues at ticket counters and
agencies and their stakeholders are using security checkpoints. In 2018, more than 1 billion
digital and AI-based technologies to give passengers passed through airports in the United
users a more convenient and secure travel States.16 To help tackle this problem, many airports
experience. One example of the digital identity are deploying multiple technologies that can
trend is the effort to digitize driver’s licenses. In digitally identify travelers and speed up passenger
the air, e-passports are already making inroads at processing.
airports globally, and efforts are underway to
improve the traveler experience and security using With electronic and biometric passports (passports
biometrics and facial recognition technologies. embedded with a chip containing biometric
information) now available in more than 150
countries around the world, airlines and airports
Moving from analog to are turning to facial recognition and biometric
digital driver’s licenses systems to streamline the travel experience.17 At
more than 40 airports across the United States,
Louisiana, Iowa, Colorado, Idaho, Maryland, and frequent flyers who belong to the CLEAR
the District of Columbia are all in various stages of accelerated screening program can use their
piloting and implementing digital driver’s license fingerprints to identify themselves when they
technology. A digital driver’s license is a digital board flights.18 Biometrics, in the future, could
copy of a driver’s license that can be stored on a allow passengers to do away with multiple travel
smartphone. In Louisiana, for example, drivers
14
documents such as tickets, boarding passes,
can store their digital driver’s license data on the baggage tags, and other IDs.
VerifyYou app, which lets users authenticate the
digital document with the state’s Department of A glimpse of this can be seen at Atlanta’s
Motor Vehicles. 15
Hartsfield-Jackson international airport. Delta Air
Lines, in collaboration with Customs and Border
Not only do digital driver’s licenses increase Protection (CBP) and the Transportation Security
convenience for citizens, but they could also reduce Administration (TSA), has launched the country’s
fraud as they’re less susceptible to counterfeiting or first biometric terminal at the airport. The terminal
tampering than paper licenses. They also let law uses facial recognition technology to move
enforcement agencies quickly and securely view an passengers quickly from the curb to the gate.
individual’s data and verify their identity. Passengers opting to use the service can check in at
the self-service kiosk and drop their checked
baggage at the counter, never needing to scan a
Frictionless airport boarding pass or show a physical ID. They simply
experience using biometrics verify their identity through facial recognition at
the TSA checkpoint and board their flights. More
and facial recognition
than 25,000 people used the service to expedite
The more people choose to fly, the more pressure their movement through the airport within three
they put on airport infrastructure, and the longer months of it being rolled out.19

7
Transportation trends 2020

The final check-in with such a system happens at pass. Over the years, CBP claims to have achieved
the boarding gate. Using CBP-powered facial an accuracy rate of 99 percent.20 However,
comparison technology, the airline can match a challenges around security, privacy, and
passenger’s photo in real time with an image stored algorithmic bias remain and continue to be a major
in a secure cloud database, thus allowing gate focus for federal agencies and industry partners.21
agents to skip scanning the passenger’s boarding

DIGITAL CITIZEN: MAP OF FACIAL RECOGNITION PILOTS AT US AIRPORTS

Minneapolis
Minneapolis–Saint Paul
International Airportto
launch facial recognition
at Delta gates.
Houston
William P. Hobby International Airport
launches Biometric Exit Technology. New York
John F. Kennedy
George Bush Intercontinental Airport International Airport's Washington D.C.
kicks off Biometric Exit Technology. Terminal 1 starts facial Ronald Reagan
Washington DC recognition boarding. Washington National
Washington Dulles
Airport inaugurates
International Detroit facial scanning
Airport unveils facial Detroit Metro technology.
San José recognition project Airport launches
Norman Y. Mineta that will swap facial recognition
San Jose International boarding passes technology.
Airport rolls out with facial scans
biometric processing
for international
passengers.

Los Angeles Chicago

Los Angeles O’Hare
International International
Airport launches Airport to launch
facial recognition biometric facial
cameras at recognition.
boarding gates.

Fort Lauderdale
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood
International Airport unveils
fingerprint and iris
recognition technology.

Miami
Las Vegas
Miami International
TSA kicks off facial
Airport Airport adopts
recognition pilot at Las Dallas/Fort Worth
Atlanta facial recognition
Vegas Airport McCarran Dallas/Fort Worth
Most International Delta Orlando boarding.
International Airport. International
clients use facial recognition Orlando and Tampa
Airport adopts airports speed up facial
facial recognition. tech at Hartsfield–Jackson
Atlanta International Airport. recognition scanning for
international travelers.

Source: Deloitte analysis.

Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

8
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Customer experience

D
EPARTMENT OF MOTOR Vehicles (DMV) residents can visit a DMV kiosk to obtain vehicle
commissioners have long known that registrations and license plate stickers, while also
customers who are unhappy with services at performing other routine transactions.23
their local DMV often take their complaints all the Washington D.C. and Maryland residents can
way to the governor’s desk. People transact a lot perform their own emissions screening using
with local DMVs, which can make their experiences 24-hour self-service kiosks that feature touch
a bellwether for the constituent experience with the screens and audio with step-by-step instructions
state and local government writ large. So, it’s no on the inspection process.24
surprise that as an increasing number of
jurisdictions across the United States appoint chief
citizen experience officers to manage and improve Building more inclusive
the experience citizens have while interacting with mobility infrastructure
government, transportation services rank high on
their agendas.22 Federal data shows that nearly 20 percent of
Americans—57 million individuals—have
Transportation agencies themselves, along with the disabilities, and 6 million of those people have
broader mobility ecosystem, are also placing more difficulty getting the transportation they need.25 To
emphasis on customer experience (CX). That make it easier for pedestrians with limited mobility
means putting users’ needs front and center, to plan accessible routes, the University of
simplifying transactions, providing better Washington’s Taskar Center for Accessible
wayfinding infrastructure for pedestrians, and Technology has developed AccessMap, a map-
offering more inclusive travel options. based app that lets users enter a destination and
receive suggested routes based on customized
settings, such as limiting uphill or downhill
Improving self-service at DMVs inclines.26

In recent years, many DMVs have addressed the Some cities are introducing new vendor
problem of long wait times for services and limited requirements in an effort to deploy solutions that
service hours and locations through a mix of are more inclusive, in terms of both physical
technology and process changes. Many states have accessibility and cost. They’re also lowering
implemented self-service kiosks in DMV offices to regulatory barriers for providers that address
handle routine transactions. They’ve also added inclusion. For example, new rules from the District
kiosks at high-traffic partner locations, such as of Columbia’s DOT say that operators of dockless
grocery stores, saving many citizens a trip to their vehicle services must offer rental options that don’t
local DMV branch. In California, for example, require smartphones. They must also offer pricing

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Transportation trends 2020

plans for users with low incomes and distribute transit leaders are focused on building integrated
their vehicles more equitably across the district’s digital platforms, offering diverse payment
eight wards.27 channels, and improving the use of data to better
understand their customers in an effort to improve
their transit experience.29 Offering integrated
Helping pedestrians better multimodal options digitally, like what RTD is
navigate urban areas doing in Colorado, is one way of providing a more
seamless experience to passengers.
Another important experience that transportation
and infrastructure planners are trying to improve TransLink, the regional transportation authority in
for travelers is finding their way around. Through Vancouver, upgraded its fare system and now
its Legible London initiative, for instance, allows passengers to use wearables like wristbands
Transport for London (TfL) uses human-centered for payment using their “pay-and-go” facility.30
design principles to help citizens and visitors find Metrolinx, the regional transportation authority for
their way more easily around the city. New tools the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, has
include maps to indicate how far one can walk in partnered with a grocery chain to allow
five minutes or 15 minutes, taller signs to passengers to pick up their groceries from their
accommodate detailed information, transport home stations.31
interchange information, and traditional
directional signs.28 Some cities are going a step further and creating
positions in their transit agency focused on
customer experience. In 2018, the city of Seattle
Improving the transit appointed a chief customer experience officer
experience (CCEO) for Sound Transit, the city’s transit agency
serving the Seattle metropolitan area. The CCEO’s
Customer experience plays a critical role in role is to ensure that CX is an integral part of all
increasing public transit ridership. Increasingly, new transportation development in the city.32

10
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Innovation accelerators

T
RANSFORMATIVE INNOVATION REQUIRES ecosystem can collaborate. Bosch also provides
an environment that celebrates risk-taking urban mobility experts to guide and mentor
and urges people to learn from their failures. startups and small businesses in the transportation
An organization that fosters innovation—including space.36
in the field of transportation—might focus on
developing solutions of its own, or on driving
innovation among other stakeholder groups.33 Setting up sandboxes to
increase innovation
Tapping into private sector Transportation agencies can encourage innovation
expertise and solutions by creating sandboxes and related infrastructure
for developing and testing cutting-edge
Some government innovation units in the technologies. Transportation agencies can derive
transportation world focus on “spinning-in” value by enabling others to innovate
promising solutions from other sectors, adapting more effectively.
them as needed. That’s what the US Department of
Transportation (USDOT) did when it awarded Consider Suntrax, the state-of-the-art facility
US$14 million to Carnegie Mellon University to developed by the Florida Department of
launch a transportation research center called Transportation (FDOT) and Florida’s Turnpike
Mobility21. One of the center’s critical goals is to Enterprise (FTE). The FTE currently uses the
follow up its research with pilots and then transfer facility to test tolling technologies. By 2021, the
successful technologies to partners in the “real facility will expand to support autonomous vehicle
world.”34 One of the solutions under development (AV) and connected vehicle (CV) testing on a
at the center is the Intelligent Mobility Meter 2.2-mile-long test track. Suntrax also provides a
(IMM), which counts the number of pedestrians, 200-acre facility to test AV technologies in highway,
cyclists, and vehicles in a particular area. The high-speed, and urban settings.37 Similarly, the
project expands on previous counting solutions to Texas Innovation Alliance provides controlled
develop better technical capabilities and counting testing facilities for AV technology in Austin,
accuracy, and has encouraged the use of these Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and El
meters in real-world settings.35 Paso.38 Michigan’s Mcity is another initiative that
aims to build an AV and CV ecosystem. Launched
Another example, from across the pond, is the in 2015, the program is led by the University of
partnership between TfL and Bosch to help tackle Michigan and 65 industry partners, with more than
urban mobility issues in the United Kingdom. TfL US$16 million in research funding.39
brings technical knowledge and a plethora of data
sets from its unified API and open data platforms. Ohio is already home to the largest contained
Bosch provides a dedicated space called the testing site for AV and CV technologies—the
“Connectory” to serve as an urban mobility lab SMARTCenter. With a majority of AV and CV
where researchers from across the mobility testbeds cropping up in urban areas, the USDOT

11
Transportation trends 2020

AVs hold the potential to make Ideas Accelerator, will use a mix of

public roadways work markedly crowdsourcing and cocreation models,

allowing anyone to propose a solution or
safer by addressing 94 percent of a problem that needs solving. The UML’s
other initiatives focus on driving
crashes caused by human error.40 economic and workforce development in
recently awarded Ohio a US$7.5 million grant to transportation and building testbeds to
pilot AV technology on rural roads. DriveOhio, a explore cutting-edge solutions in a controlled
collaboration between Ohio’s Department of environment.44
Transportation and academic partners, will lead
this rural AV testing project.41 In some cases, states, regions, and the private
sector have come together to tackle particularly
thorny mobility issues. For instance, the Mileage-
Building a public- Based User Fee (MBUF) Alliance was formed in
private coalition to drive 2010 to explore and pilot different MBUF models
as alternatives to the gasoline-based tax funding
transportation innovation
model.45 The alliance unites multiple mobility
Along with states and the federal government, stakeholders, including state transportation
cities and local transportation agencies are also departments, businesses, think tanks, academic
collaborating to create innovative transportation institutions, and transportation experts. The
solutions. For example, Los Angeles recently MBUF conducted its first road usage charge (RUC)
launched the Urban Movement Labs (UML), a pilot, OReGO, in the state of Oregon. Pilots have
public-private coalition to drive innovation in since followed in Delaware, California, Minnesota,
transportation. The UML includes the Mayor’s Missouri, and Washington.46
Office of Economic Development, the City of Los
Angeles Department of Transportation, Los Similar initiatives are trying to drive innovation in
commercial freight

Officials at USDOT and Ohio DOT point transportation via road, rail,
and air. AllianceTexas, a
out that 97 percent of land in the United planned community within

States is rural and could be the ideal

the Denton and Tarrant
counties in Texas, serves as a
setting for testing and improving AV global logistics hub for
multiple freight companies,
technologies.42 including the BNSF Railway,
the Fort Worth Alliance
Angeles World Airports, the Port of Los Angeles, Airport, FedEx’s Southwest regional sorting hub,
and private partners including Lyft, Waymo, and and Amazon Air’s regional hub.47 AllianceTexas
Verizon. The coalition will also include partners recently established a Mobility Innovation Zone to
drawn from the nonprofit world and academia, test and foster smart infrastructure and smart
along with residents.43 mobility innovation. For instance, the zone plans
to test unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and
The UML will generate solutions for the city’s daily autonomous integrated freight management
challenges and then test those solutions on systems in a sandbox environment.48
testbeds within the city. One of its initiatives, the

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 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

INNOVATION ACCELERATORS: MAP OF INNOVATION TESTBEDS

Minnesota New York
MnROAD nonfunctional West Harlem testbed
freeway section for testing to deploy wireless
AV/CV technology. tech, IOT, millimeter
wave spectrum, and
cloud computing at
the edge.

Wisconsin
Wisconsin AV Proving
Grounds (AVPG) for Virginia
development and Virginia Smart Roads
deployment of AV. closed testbed to test
new technologies.
Ohio
Ohio’s U.S. 33 Smart
Mobility Corridor
for testing AV/CV
technology.
Colorado
18-mile
“Vehicle-to-Everything”
highway pilot to be
launched in Colorado.

North Carolina
California North Carolina
Running along El approved as
Camino Real, this medical drone
is the country’s first testbed.
public CV testbed.

South Carolina
SC-DOT connected vehicle
testbed with dedicated for
short range communications
(DSRC) infrastructure.

Florida
Florida “smart
Arizona testbed”—UF
Arizona’s Anthem testbed I-STREET—tests AV/CV
dedicated for short-range technologies, smart
communications (DSRC) Louisiana Georgia devices, and sensors.
deployments. Simulation testbed for CV West Georgia’s I-85-The
developed at Driving Ray is a corridor for
Simulator Lab at Louisiana innovative transportation
State University. technologies.

Source: Deloitte analysis.

Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

13
Transportation trends 2020

AI-augmented mobility

T
HE GROWING TOOLKIT of AI technologies— Active traffic management
including computer vision, natural
conversation, and machines that learn over Rather than using static time-of-day models, active
time—has the potential to enhance almost every traffic management (ATM) uses current and
aspect of today’s mobility ecosystem. AI can enable predicted traffic condition data to dynamically
intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in many manage traffic and congestion on roads.51 In Seattle,
areas, from traffic management and smart the state of Washington has created smarter
signaling to road safety improvements, transit highway corridors that include ATM-based signage
scheduling, and real-time information and variable speed limits to better manage
for commuters. incidents and maintenance of roads. On the
Interstate 5 corridor where the system was
implemented, the number of annual crashes fell
Reducing travel time from 434 to 296.52

The city of Pittsburgh has experimented with an

AI-driven traffic light system that adapts to current Ensuring restricted
conditions instead of following a preprogrammed lane compliance
pattern. Computer vision and radar enable the
system to see vehicles coming from all directions. With the number of high-occupancy toll (HOT)/
This traffic data powers a predictive model used to high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes on the rise, AI
modify traffic signaling patterns in real time. technologies can help inspect the number of
travelers in a vehicle using a restricted
lane. Currently, officers have to conduct
According to studies, the global manual inspections, making HOT/HOV

market for AI in transportation is lanes costly to operate and their

restrictions difficult to enforce. Cities and
expected to reach US$3.5 billion states are exploring technologies such as
vehicle occupancy detection systems that
by 2023.49 can help catch drivers who use restricted
lanes illegally. Such systems use infrared
The city initially installed this system at 50 cameras to capture images near toll lanes, with
intersections and plans to scale up to 150. The additional computer vision technologies to detect
system has helped reduce travel time by 25 percent, the number of passengers in the car.53
braking by 30 percent, and idling by more than
40 percent.50 In 2018, California’s Metropolitan Transportation
Commission allowed three companies to test their

14
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

camera and video analytics technology in the September 27, 2019.57 This was followed by
state. The system uses video analytics technology
54
approval for Google’s Wing Aviation, LLC to
to detect vacant seats in a vehicle, but it does not conduct package delivery operations.58 The AAM
use facial recognition technology. 55
landscape is expanding with passenger and
delivery drones’ potential to save time, reduce
congestion, and improve logistics.59
Advanced air mobility

Along with AV and CV technologies, advanced air Assisting air traffic

mobility (AAM) is gaining traction and has the control (ATC)
potential to transform how we move goods and
people in urban centers and regions. NASA and the AI is also making inroads in aviation by assisting
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are leading air traffic controllers. For instance, London
efforts to accelerate the development and safe Heathrow airport’s ATC has to deal with fog and
integration of AAM into the US national low ground visibility from time to time. To tackle
transportation system. NASA is collaborating with this problem, the airport has installed multiple
a broad set of stakeholders to develop an industry ultra-high-definition cameras that send visual data
concept of operations for urban air mobility (UAM). to the AI system, Aimee.60 Analyzing the data in
The goal is to describe a vision and the real time, Aimee tells controllers when an aircraft
foundational concepts required to put air has exited and alerts them to clear the arrival of the
transportation within the reach of the public as a next flight. Once fully operational, the system is
transportation option—shifting urban traffic into expected to improve landing capacity by
the airspace over metropolitan areas in the United 20 percent.61 With an increase in urban air mobility,
States.56 air traffic management systems will need to adopt a
more scalable model. This is where unmanned
The FAA has brought together state, local, and aircraft system traffic management (UTM) comes
tribal governments, along with private sector into play. NASA’s Ames Research Center is
entities, to test advanced unmanned aircraft currently leading the UTM project by partnering
systems (UAS) operations. Under this effort, UPS with more than 100 organizations across
Flight Forward conducted its first package delivery government, academia,
by drone flying medical supplies at WakeMed’s and industry.62
hospital campus in Raleigh, North Carolina on

15
Transportation trends 2020

THE RISE OF “DIGITAL TWIN” CAPABILITIES

In a hyperconnected world powered by the Internet of Things (IoT), transportation planners and
policymakers have access to unprecedented volumes of data. Today, planners and policymakers use
advanced modeling and simulation capabilities to put this data to use to test new transportation solutions in
digital environments that duplicate real-world conditions. For example, SANDAG is using its Activity-Based
Model and “sketch planning” tools to compare the benefits of road-widening to relieve traffic congestion with
the benefits of other potential improvements, such as fast rail lines or light rail systems.63

Digital twins could be used to run simulations based on real conditions on roads, highways, and toll plazas,
among other facilities. They could also be used to improve air traffic management. For example, a software-
enabled system called the Airport Operations Performance Predictor (AOPP) ingests a vast amount of
historical and current air traffic data and uses advanced analytics to build thousands of scenario simulations.
These simulations can help air traffic controllers address real problems on the ground, such as predicting
on-time arrivals and departures, determining which flights and airlines to prioritize, managing resources in
the event of emergencies, and more.64

Airservices Australia, the country’s government-owned provider of air navigation services, is investigating
the use of a digital twin in conjunction with IoT and machine learning. The goal is to better manage
conventional air traffic, whose volume is expected to double in the next 20 years, along with unmanned
aerial vehicles that could soon crowd the airways. Using historic data, the organization’s Service Strategy
team developed a digital twin of Airservices’ current air traffic network and started running tests to see if this
could help better manage the network. Four initial proofs of concept demonstrated that the technology could
enhance flight routes, improve takeoff times, and reduce delays.65

16
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Source: Deloitte analysis.66

Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

17
Transportation trends 2020

Challenges and closing

thoughts

T
HE FIVE TRANSPORTATION trends discussed Managing data ethics (and
in this report do not constitute an exhaustive increasingly AI ethics)
list. They simply provide a glimpse into some
of the major shifts afoot across the US mobility As transportation agencies collect and analyze
landscape. The solutions associated with these more and more data, questions will inevitably arise
trends are not one-size-fits-all; they will evolve in about how to use this data while ensuring security
different ways in different jurisdictions. and safeguarding personal information. The debate
on data governance will likely cover questions such
While upcoming changes in the mobility ecosystem as: Who will collect the data? How will it be stored?
offer significant opportunities, governments that Who can access it? Can it be used beyond its initial
pursue these innovations will likely also have to purpose? Who has the right to allow additional
grapple with issues such as data management, access? Can the data be tokenized and masked?
ethics, the prioritization of benefits, and the role of How and when should the data be destroyed?
the private sector.
The advent of AV technologies also opens up a
debate around the potential ethical implications of
Managing data cognitive technologies. Transportation agencies are
still trying to draw up rules to govern
The massive volumes of data available to accountability for the actions of these vehicles.
transportation agencies will continue to grow in
the coming years. By some estimates, in the AV Beyond AVs, the problem of algorithmic bias could
and CV future, each car will produce more than also make the use of AI-driven systems
4,000 GB of data per day.67 This data can be used problematic. For instance, men and women have
to help identify citizen travel patterns, reduce different mobility needs. Women more often than
delays, and ameliorate congestion. For now, men tend to travel shorter distances, and practice
though, many cities are struggling to manage these “trip-chaining,” running household errands, picking
oceans of information and extract useful insights to up and dropping off children, and traveling with
inform decision-making. the elderly.69 When algorithms are used to make
decisions about things such as bus routes and
Moreover, most cities have yet to devise open data schedules, a lack of robust and reliable data about
policies that would let them integrate across all these mobility patterns is bound to produce
elements of their infrastructure. Vast volumes of skewed results.
data remain trapped in silos, hindering efforts to
develop seamless mobility solutions.68

18
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Breaking the individual operating system. Not every public transportation

vs. system tradeoff agency has the capabilities, resources, or funds to
realize its mobility goals on its own. That’s where
Another important question is whether the data the private sector can help, providing expertise and
available to transportation agencies should be used resources that public agencies lack and, in many
to optimize single trips or enhance systemwide cases, providing essential funding. The challenge is
operations that affect millions of passengers. One to balance the public sector’s multidimensional
way to answer this question effectively is by first role—as a strategist, catalyst/convener, regulator,
studying the needs of citizens. The principles of operator, and more—while still effectively engaging
human-centered design should inform mobility the private sector.71
decisions so new systems meet the needs of the
people they’re intended to serve. It’s hard to
change people’s travel habits unless you offer them Managing the mobility divide
appealing alternatives. The popularity of new
transportation modes introduced in the last couple New mobility services could open up access to jobs,
of decades—on-demand rentals, bikesharing education, and health care opportunities that have
programs, ride-hailing services, on-demand historically been out of reach for many
shuttles, e-scooters, and more—indicates that underserved communities. However, if these
people are indeed willing to change, as long as the mobility services—that fail to reach areas most in
value proposition is compelling. Timely and need—are predicated on participation in the digital
ongoing feedback from citizens is essential for economy (e.g., smartphone, digital payments,
tailoring mobility offerings.70 credit card), or are too expensive to be viable
options, the existing mobility divide may further
widen. There should be a governance framework in
Managing stakeholder place that allows the private sector to capture value
tensions while addressing the needs of all citizens.

Both the public and private sectors have diverse

roles to play in designing a city’s seamless mobility

19
Transportation trends 2020

Looking ahead

T
HE NEED FOR simpler, faster, more more open to solutions that harness data,
convenient, and more sustainable technology, and human experience capabilities to
transportation will likely only increase with tackle both new and long-standing transportation
time. So, too, will the number of innovative challenges.
solutions ready to help usher in a new era of
mobility befitting of the age of AI. As governments and their private sector partners
contemplate their next moves, they should
In a world of constant change, transportation consider the five trends that are currently
leaders will need to be more intuitive—to sense and reshaping the landscape and ask how these trends
respond to new technology opportunities, social might inform their own journeys toward a better
challenges, and citizen needs as they emerge—and transportation future.

20
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

Endnotes

1. San Diego Forward, “A bold new transportation vision in 5 big moves,” accessed December 23, 2019.

2. San Diego Forward, “5 big moves, Next OS,” June 2019.

3. Scott Corwin, Anant Dinamani, and Derek Pankratz, Toward a mobility operating system, Deloitte Insights, July 25,
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4. Urban Design Studio, Mobility hub readers guide, accessed December 23, 2019.

5. San Diego Forward, “Mobility hubs,” accessed November 19, 2019.

6. Transit Forward RI 2040, Mobility Hubs Strategy paper, accessed December 5, 2019.

7. Warwick Goodall et al., The rise of mobility as a service: Reshaping how urbanites get around, Deloitte Insights,
January 23, 2017.

8. James Gooch, “RTD, Transit and Masabi today launch Transit in-app ticketing in Denver metro region,” blog,
Masabi, September 9, 2019; Laura Bliss, “The Uber-Transit convergence arrives in Denver,” CityLab, May 2,
2019.

9. Ibid.

10. Tom Storme et al., “Limitations to the car-substitution effect of MaaS. Findings from a Belgian pilot study,”
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 131 (2020): pp: 196–205.

11. UrbanThings, “Ticketless by UrbanThings at Transport Ticketing Global,” February 7, 2019.

12. Ibid.

13. Chris Teale, “How 4 cities are exploring new ways to pay for transit,” Smart Cities Dive, January 28, 2019.

14. Skip Descant, “Louisiana enters the era of the digital driver’s license,” Government Technology, January 15, 2019.

15. Ibid.

16. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, “2018 traffic data for U.S airlines and foreign airlines U.S. flights,” March 21,
2019.

17. Gemalto, “The electronic passport in 2019 and beyond,” accessed March 12, 2020.

18. Kelly Yamanouchi, “Now you can board a Delta flight with your fingerprints: Technology launched at Reagan
National,” Atlanta Journal Constitution, July 20, 2017.

19. Delta, “Passenger experience: Delta, pioneering a seamless experience,” International Airport Review, July 20,
2019.

20. Katie Byrne, “Facial recognition scanners at US airports under more scrutiny,” New York Post, January 30, 2020.

21. Larry Jaffee, “Facial recognition tech questioned, defended at House committee hearing,” SC Media, February 7,
2020.

22. ESI ThoughtLab, Building a hyperconnected city, November 20, 2019.

23. Department of Motor Vehicles, “Californians can do more on DMV Now self-service terminals,” State of
California, press release, January 2, 2019.

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Transportation trends 2020

24. Lori Aratani, “New self-service emissions kiosk could save D.C. residents a trip to the DMV,” Washington Post,
November 15, 2019; Maryland Department of the Environment, “About the VEIP program,” accessed January,
2020.

25. National Governor’s Association, Governors staying ahead of the transportation innovation curve, July 2018.

26. Saba Salman, “What would a truly disabled-accessible city look like?” Guardian, February 14, 2018.

27. District of Columbia, Department of Transportation, “Making dockless vehicles accessible to all
Washingtonians,” accessed March 12, 2020.

28. Applied Wayfinding, “Legible London – An exercise in simplexity,” accessed December 4, 2019.

29. .Metro Magazine, “Transit industry survey finds customer experience is vital,” September 24, 2018.

30. Paul Comfort, “Investment, expansion, good business, and customer experience: 4 takeaways from transit in
Canada,” Mass Transit, November 12, 2019.

31. Ibid.

32. Sound Transit, “Russel Arnold named Sound Transit’s Chief Customer Experience Officer,” press release,
February 12, 2018.

33. Nishita Henry, Alan Holden, and William D. Eggers, Innovation accelerators: Creating safe spaces for government
innovation, Deloitte Insights, June 24, 2019.

34. Mobility 21, “Pushing the needle on mobility,” accessed December, 2019.

35. Mobility 21, Research recap: The intelligent mobility meter, accessed December 5, 2019; Mobility 21, The intelligent
mobility meter: Portable fine-grained data collection and analysis of pedestrian, cyclist, and motor vehicle traffic,
April 23, 2019.

36. Transport for London, “TfL and Bosch launch partnership to tackle transport problems of the future,” press
release, November 13, 2018.

37. SunTrax, “SunTrax factsheet 2019,” accessed December 7, 2019.

38. Texas Innovation alliance, “Automated vehicle proving grounds,” accessed November 19, 2019.

39. Driven, “Mcity: Putting technology on the road,” accessed December 9, 2019.

40. National Governor’s Association, Governors staying ahead of the transportation innovation curve.

41. Jason Plautz, “Ohio’s $17M project to test AVs on rural roads,” Smart Cities Dive, September 12, 2019.

42. Skip Descant, “USDOT grants to accelerate AV use in rural, suburban areas,” Government Technology, September
24, 2019.

43. Los Angeles Mayor’s Office, “Mayor Garcetti launches America’s first public-private partnership for
transportation innovation,” press release, November 14, 2019.

44. Urban Movement Labs, “Urban movement labs,” accessed November 17, 2019.

45. Mileage-Based User Fee Alliance, “About the Alliance,” accessed December 17, 2019.

46. The National Academies Press, “Mileage Based User Fee Alliance,” accessed December 12, 2019

47. Hillwood, “Hillwood announces establishment of Alliance Texas Mobility Innovation Zone,” Business Wire, June
10, 2019.

48. Alliance Texas website, accessed, November 20, 2019.

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 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

49. Naveen Joshi, “How AI can transform the transportation industry,” Forbes, July 26, 2019.

50. Jackie Snow, “This AI traffic system in Pittsburgh has reduced travel time by 25%,” Smart Cities Dive, July 20,
2017.

51. US Federal Highway Administration, “Active traffic management,” accessed January 10, 2020.

52. FHWA, Active Traffic Management (ATM) implementation and operations guide, December, 2017.

53. Manasa Kolla, “Using AI-based automated vehicle occupancy detection has many advantages,” Conduent,
March 13, 2019.

54. Michael Cabanatuan, “Testing high-tech cameras where it counts: Aimed at carpool-lane cheaters,” San
Francisco Chronicle, April 2, 2018.

55. Erik Bascome, “How cameras, not cops, could enforce HOV lane rules in NYC,” Government Technology, March
14, 2019.

56. Deloitte, “To prepare for passenger drones and flying taxis in the sky, Deloitte earns contract with NASA to
develop concept of operations for urban air mobility,” press release, June 10, 2019.

57. Federal Aviation Administration, US Department of Transportation,“Package delivery by drone (part 135),”
October 1, 2019.

58. Ibid.

59. Chris Metts et al., Managing the evolving skies, Deloitte, 2018.

60. NATS, “From digital tower to digital airport,” accessed December 13, 2019.

61. Seth Miller, “Bringing artificial intelligence to ATC: Huge promises, challenging timelines,” Paxex Aero, January
25, 2019.

62. NASA, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management,” January 31, 2020.

63. Scott Buchholz and Bill Briggs, Tech Trends 2020, Deloitte Insights, January 15, 2020.

64. Deloitte, “Airport operations performance predictor,” accessed December 4, 2019.

65. Buchholz and Briggs, Tech Trends 2020.

66. Adam Mussomeli et al., Digital twin, Deloitte Insights, January 15, 2020.

67. Vineeth Joel Patel, “Think your cellphone uses a lot of data? Report claims autonomous cars will use 4,000 GB in
one day,” FutureCar, April 18, 2017.

68. World Economic Forum, Activating a Seamless Integrated Mobility System (SIMSystem): Insights into leading global
practices, January 2020.

69. Karla Dominguez Gonzalez et al., “Improving women’s mobility: It’s not just about the quality of buses,” World
Bank Blogs, December 21, 2018.

70. World Economic Forum, Activating a Seamless Integrated Mobility System (SIMSystem): Insights into leading
global practices.

71. Ibid.

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Transportation trends 2020

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Glynis Rodrigues from the Deloitte Center for Government Insights
for her research contributions to the study.

The authors would also like to extend thanks to Anant Dinamani, Rasheq Zarif, Steve Hurst, Steve
Hamilton, Rahul Gupta, Catherine Bannister, Faye DiMassimo, Yann Pastor, Scott Corwin, Derek
Pankratz, Elizabeth Krimmel, and Matt Metcalfe for their invaluable insights and thoughtful feedback.

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24
 What are the most transformational trends in mobility today?

The Deloitte Center for Government Insights

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