Chanifah, Hamdani, Gunawan - 2020
Chanifah, Hamdani, Gunawan - 2020
Chanifah, Hamdani, Gunawan - 2020
Article Info: Received: January 30, 2020; Revised: February 19, 2020; Accepted: February 30, 2020.
Abstract: The aim of this research is to analyse the comparison of applying Single Index
Model and Capital Asset Pricing Model by means of achieving the Optimal Portfolio towards
registered Issuers which are listed on the Liquid Index 45 (LQ45). The observation has been
conducted for 60 months, since February 2014 until January 2019. Quantitative approach has
been used to analyse 45 companies as the total number of population of the research. There
have been chosen 26 companies (issuers) as the sample of the research through Purposive
Sampling Technique out of 45 companies. Single Index Model and CAPM have been used as
the tools of analysis in this research. The results of the research show that portfolio is formed
by Single Index Model because it considers all aspects of the economy which cause a security
which may avoid from losses. Meanwhile, Capital Asset Pricing Model only considers
particular risk in an efficient portfolio combinations. Needless to say, it would be better for
investors to use Single Index Model in order to gain the most valueable achievement on
investment yield value.
Keywords: Optimal Portfolio, Single Index Model (SIM), and Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM)
Abstrak: Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis perbandingan penerapan Model
Indeks Tunggal dan Model Penetapan Harga Modal dengan cara mencapai Portofolio Optimal
terhadap Emiten terdaftar yang terdaftar di Liquid Index 45 (LQ45). Pengamatan telah
dilakukan selama 60 bulan, sejak Februari 2014 hingga Januari 2019. Pendekatan kuantitatif
telah digunakan untuk menganalisis 45 perusahaan sebagai jumlah total populasi penelitian.
Telah dipilih 26 perusahaan (emiten) sebagai sampel penelitian melalui Purposive Sampling
Technique dari 45 perusahaan. Model Indeks Tunggal dan CAPM telah digunakan sebagai alat
analisis dalam penelitian ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa portofolio dibentuk oleh
Model Indeks Tunggal karena mempertimbangkan semua aspek ekonomi yang menyebabkan
keamanan yang dapat terhindar dari kerugian. Sementara itu, Capital Priet Asset Model hanya
mempertimbangkan risiko tertentu dalam kombinasi portofolio yang efisien. Tidak perlu
dikatakan, akan lebih baik bagi investor untuk menggunakan Model Indeks Tunggal untuk
mendapatkan pencapaian yang paling bernilai pada nilai hasil investasi.
Kata kunci: Portofolio Optimal, Model Indeks Tunggal (SIM), dan Model Harga Aset Modal
(CAPM)
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INTRODUCTION
An investment decision will always be in relation to two things, returns and risks. The
rational investor invests their funds in efficient shares, it is high return with low-risk
investments (Abdilah and Rahayu, 2014). In a way to reduce investment risk, a good investor
will not only depend on only one stock. However, they will spread out by means of ditributing
their funds to more than one stocks, of course, highly preferences stocks. It could be a good
solution to suffer great losses, because if one of the stocks price falls, others will not be down.
It means that investors will save from suffering a great losses..
Investment risk can be reduced by applying concept of asset diversification through
allocating them in any types of stocks which leads to form portfolio. Of course, the rational
investor will opt optimal portfolio among the other existing portfolios (Muttaqin and Tandika,
2018).In fact, optimal portfolio can be conduted through Single Index Model and CAPM
(Yuliansyah, 2018). In this case, the thing that makes a great concern is the securities that have
been included in Liquid Market Index 45 (LQ45) which still experience price decline. This
condition seems unusual because the value of securities that have been included in Liquid
Market Index 45 (LQ45) are considered as the most profitable securities. The following is the
LQ45 movements from January 2014 until January 2019:
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are categirized to be included into the optimal portfolio. b).If the condition of Excess Return to
Beta (ERB) valueis < than Ci, Ci, it can be said that the securities are required to take role as
part of optimal portfolio.
Single Index Model
The Single Index Model assumes that the price of a security will be fluctuated with the
index market price. In other words, the share price tends to be increasing if the index market
price is increasing as well. Vice versa, when the index stock price falls , most stocks will
ecperience a price decline. In other words, the returns of the scurity itself has the correlation
with the climate change in the stock market, especially to the change of market value (in
Jogiyanto, 2017).
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
CAPM believes that risks level which concernerd by the investors is only a kind of
systematic risks, because they assume that any kinds of risks cannot be avoided even by
diversification. CAPM has been mostly used to estimate the relationship between the expected
return and the risk level to a particular asset. According to Zubir (2011:197), CAPM has two
main functions, they are: a). It functions as the reference or benchmark in re-evaluating
investment, especially its rate of return. b). It can be applied to analyse value of expected return
of certain asset that is not or has not been traded in the market.
Research Hypothesis
Forming Optimal Portfolio Using Single Index Model Method
An investment decision will always be in relation to returns and risks. The rational
investors will invest their funds in efficient stocks-they are stocks which have great returns
with lower risk level. They also will invest their funds to the optimal portfolio which consists
of BBCA, SMGR, LPKR, and INDF (Abdilah and Rahayu, 2014). However, the investor
himself must have a great concern and attention to two fundamental things, they are; the level
of returns and risks level. In lowering the risk level, the investors may diversify their
investments by compiling the 38 LQ45 non-financial company shares using Single Index
Model. It leads precentage of return value becomes 0,242% per seven days and beta1,222. The
best portfolios are mostly daily portfolios with high volatility or aggressive portfolios
(Mahadwartha and Gunawan, 2016). It leads the hypothesis as the following:
H1 : The Optimal Portfolios are Formed by Single Index Model Calculation Methods.
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Forming the Optimal Portfolio Using CPAM
CAPM assumes that risks level which concernerd by the investors is only a kind of
systematic risks, because they assume that any kinds of risks cannot be avoided even by
diversification (Zubir, 2011:197). It is in line with the statement that is explained by Jogiyanto
(2017:285), who argues that risks are always related to deviation value of the received outcome
with the expected returns. The greater deviation, it leads the greater risk that should be taken
by the investors. CPAM itself can be used as one of the technique to opt stocks and decide
which stocks are categorized as undervalued, overvalued, and fairvalued stocks. It is also can
be used as one of the methods in making investment decision in the Capital Market. There has
been found that there is a positive returns in calculating by using CAPM (Waryani, 2009). This
leads the hypothesis as the following:
H2 : The Optimal Portfolios are Formed by Capital Asset Pricing Model Calculation
Methods.
Forming the Portfolio between Single Index Model and CAPM Methods.
One of the stocks portfolios analysis perviously has been conducted by Setiawan (2010)
by using Simple Criteria for Optimal Portofolio Selection (SCOPS), which its result shows that
the selected stocks have the vlaue of Excess return to beta (ERB) > C* (cut of rate). This result
is in line with the concept of the research that has been conducted itself, which explains that
there have been found a level-up reteurns although, still, there is a small risk existed. If the
whole stocks are deversified, there will be greater returns and risk will be getting lower.
According to Firdaus, et.al (2018), risks which existed in the combination of optimal portfolio
risiko are lower than in the individual stock. It is supported by the fact which shows that the
returns value based on calculation of the combination of optimal portfolio is 0.03645 and the
value of risk level that the investors take is 0.0124. another research which used Single Index
Model and CAPM has been conducted by Yuliansyah (2018). The result shows that Single
Index Model is able to create the efficient and the optimal portfolio (ADRO, TLKM) with
21,54% fund proportion to ADRO and 78,46% to TLKM. Add, by using CPAM method there
have been found that 10 share are able to produce the efficient portfolio (ADRO, ASII, ICBP,
INDE, KLBF, LSIP, TKLM, UNTR, UNVR, and WIKA) with greater individual return than
its expected returns. This leads the hypothesis as the following:
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H3 : There Have Been Found a Difference between Applying Single Index Model and
CAPM by means of Achieving Portfolio Becomes Pptimal
METHOD
SIM or which is well known as Single Index Model and CAPM or Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) are used by means of giving an analysis in relation to which securities that
could form the optimal portfolio in Index Market Stock of Liquid 45 (ILQ45) since February
2014 until January 2019 in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data has been taken from the
companies which include in Index Market Stock of Liquid 45 (ILQ45) in the form of monthly
closing prices of stocks of the Composite Stock Price Index and the monthly interest rate of the
Bank of Indonesia.
The sampling technique that has been used in this research is Purposive Sampling as a
nonprobability sampling technique with certain considerations and criteria. (Sugiyono, 2016).
The sample criteria which fulfill requirements of the research are companies which registered
and legally presented on Indonesia Stocks Exchange which include in the Liquid Index Market
Stocks 45 (LQ45) and continuously analysed since February 2014 until January 2019. The data
analysis has been determined below:
1. Single Index Model
a. The calculation of securities return (Harjito and Martono, 2013):
𝑃𝑡 − 𝑃𝑡−1
𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 =
𝑃𝑡−1
where:
Return : the total return obtained by the investors
Pt : period of t price (selling price)
Pt-1 : period of t-1 price (purchase price)
𝜎𝑖 = √𝜎𝑖2
where:
σi2 : variant of return of i stock
σi : deviation standard of i stock
Rij : realized return on i stock
E(Ri) : i stock value of expected return
N : periods of realized return stocks
2
𝜎𝑀 = √𝜎𝑀
where:
σM2 : variant of market return
σM : market deviation standard
RM : realized market return
RM : expected market return
n : number of periods of realized marke return
𝐶𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑀
𝛽𝑖 = 2
𝜎𝑀
where:
βi : value of beta of stock
σM2 : market return variant
CoviM : covariant between i stock and market
ei = Ri – αi – βi . RM
∑(𝑒𝑖 )
𝐸(𝑒𝑖 ) =
𝑛−1
2
∑𝑛𝑖=1[𝑒𝑖 − 𝐸(𝑒𝑖 )]2
𝜎𝑒𝑖 =
𝑛−1
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where:
ei : residual error
Ri : realized return on i stock
RM : market realized return
αi : alpha on i stock
E(ei) : expected residual error
βi : beta on i stock
σei2 : residual error variant on i stock
n : number of observation periods
𝐸(𝑅𝑖 ) − 𝑅𝐵𝑅
𝐸𝑅𝐵𝑖 =
𝛽𝑖
where:
ERBi : value of i stock on its Excess Return to Beta
E(Ri) : expected return on i stock
RBR : risk free rate
βi : value of beta on i stock
[𝐸(𝑅𝑖 ) − 𝑅𝐵𝑅 ] . 𝛽𝑖
𝐴𝑖 = 2
𝜎𝑒𝑖
𝛽𝑖2
𝐵𝑖 = 2
𝜎𝑒𝑖
2 ∑𝑖
𝜎𝑀 . 𝑗=1 𝐴𝑖
𝐶𝑖 = 2 ∑𝑖
1 + 𝜎𝑀 . 𝑗=1 𝐵𝑖
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2 ∑𝑖 [𝐸(𝑅𝑖 ) − 𝑅𝐵𝑅 ] . 𝛽𝑖
𝜎𝑀 𝑗=1 2
𝜎𝑒𝑖
𝐶𝑖 =
2 ∑𝑖 𝛽𝑖2
1 + 𝜎𝑀 𝑗=1 𝜎 2
𝑒𝑖
where:
E(Ri) : value of i security return which is expected
RBR : value of rate ofn risk-free
βi : i security value of beta
σei2 : residual error variant of i security
Ci : Cut off point
σM 2
: variant of market index return
𝑍𝑖
𝑤𝑖 = 𝑘
∑𝑗=1 𝑍𝑖
In order to obtain the value of Zi can be determined by using the following formula:
𝛽𝑖
𝑍𝑖 = (
2 𝐸𝑅𝐵𝑖 − 𝐶𝑖
)
𝜎𝑒𝑖
where:
wi : proportion of funds on i security
Zi : scale of proportion on i stock
βi : beta i security
σei2
: residual error variant i security
ERBi : i security of excess return to beta
Ci : greatest value of point which is cut off
𝛽𝑝 = ∑ 𝑤𝑖 𝛽𝑖
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝛼𝑝 = ∑ 𝑤𝑖 𝛼𝑖
𝑖=1
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where:
αi : value of alpha of securities
αp : value of alpha of portfolio
βi : value of beta of securities
βp : value of beta of portfolio
wi : funds proportion of securities
RESULTS
This research has opted 26 companies as sample of the research out of 45 existed
companies. They are: ADHI (Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk, ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk), AKRA
(AKR Corporindo Tbk), ASII (Astra International Tbk), BBCA (Bank Central Asia Tbk),
BBNI (Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk), BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk),
BSDE (Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk), GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk), ICBP (Gudang Garam
Tbk), INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk), INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk),
JSMR (Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk), KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk), LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk),
MNCN (Media Nusantara Citra Tbk), PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk), PTBA (Bukit
Asam Tbk), PTPP (PP (Persero) Tbk), SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk), TLKM
(Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk), UNTR (United Tractors Tbk), UNVR (Unilever Indonesia
Tbk), WIKA (Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk), and WSKT (Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk).
In fact, based on the process of data analysis, there have been found that, there only 5
companies (issuers) out of 26 companies which are able to encourage achievement portfolio
becomes optimal. In order to determine the weight scale, there should be a consideration on
proportion of funds (capital) that is planned to be invested in the most valuable securities.
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AGREGAT: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis
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Based on the process of analysis and calculation that have been conducted using Single Index
Model,through considering the weight scale of funds proportion which equals to calculation of
beta value, residual error variant, value of beta on its excess return, and calculating rate of cut
off. There have been found proportion of funds on 5 securities as the following table:
Tabel 1. Funds Proportion, Expected Return, and Risk on Portfolio Combination
No. Kode Saham wi E(Rp) σp
1 PTPP 5.90% 0.000584 0.000048
2 BBCA 63.55% 0.011875 0.007863
3 WSKT 12.37% 0.003654 0.001063
4 GGRM 12.27% 0.001671 0.000156
5 UNVR 5.90% 0.000654 0.000035
Jumlah 100.00% 0.018438 0.009164
CONCLUSION
The analysis by using each method leads to securities combination which different
between each other, and it leads difference to the amount of return as well. It occurs because
there have been found steps differences in each method, one of the difference comes from
CAPM menthod which assumes that diversification becomes the way of investors to reduce
the risk. However, even deversification itself carries out perfectly, still, there will be systemic
risk which is macro. Portfolio can be achieved opimally can be formed through appling Single
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AGREGAT: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis
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Index Model, its applied encourages considering whole aspects in economics which may lead
a security to suffer losses. Meanwhile, the CAPM method only moves through considering
certain risks in an efficient combination of portfolio. It would be better for investors to consider
internal and external factors in their investments in order to avoid fatal mistakes which leads
to suffer losses. As the information, this research has ignored companies that conduct kind of
right issue activity, which leads different significant result at the end of each method applied,
because of complexity on its method itself.
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