TOR - Flood Modeling and Flood Harzard Assessment - Revised Nov. 2021
TOR - Flood Modeling and Flood Harzard Assessment - Revised Nov. 2021
TOR - Flood Modeling and Flood Harzard Assessment - Revised Nov. 2021
Terms of References
The "Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia" or CARE for South Asia project
is a five-year (2020-2025), regional project supported by the World Bank, and
implemented by Asia Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and Regional Integrated
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES). The project is
supporting the region in building resilience to climate change by improving the
availability of regional data and knowledge, developing guidelines, tools and
capacities, and promoting climate-resilient decisions, policies and investments across
key sectors. The development objective is to contribute to an enabling environment for
climate resilience policies and investments in select sectors and countries in South Asia.
Key stakeholders include governments and technical agencies at the regional and
national level. With the financial support from the World Bank Group, ADPC will be
implementing a five years’ project, titled “Climate Adaptation and Resilience Project for
South Asia” (CARE).
C. Background:
Agriculture is the main source of livelihood in South Asia. The majority of the
economically active population is reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods (CGIAR). The
agriculture sector contributes approximately 19% of the regional Gross Domestic
Product (World Bank). However, Agriculture in South Asia is highly susceptible to
climate variability and climate change, given their sensitivity to variations in
temperature, precipitation, and the occurrence of extreme events and disasters such
as droughts, floods, and cyclones. Several locational factors such as distinct geography,
demographic trends, socio-economic factors, traditional farming practices, and limited
adaptive capacities also increase the vulnerability of countries in South Asia (CGIAR).
Similarly, road transport is key to enabling many aspects of economic life such as trade,
public services delivery, governance, tourism, and other economic activities in South
Asia. Governments invest significantly in road infrastructure to provide connectivity to
all economic zones primarily to reduce poverty and promote rural development. This
requires more concerted efforts towards improving the current road infrastructure,
especially in the geologically fragile mountain terrain of Nepal and in the flat terrain of
Bangladesh, which is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as floods, storm
surges and landslides caused by heavy rain and cyclones.
impact varying across South Asia. The impacts of climate change on food production
and food security in South Asia will vary, with many countries experiencing a decline in
trends in productivity (IPCC, 2014).
In realizing the need to understand the impact of flood hazard on agriculture as well as
on transport sector, the services of a consultant will be required to conduct flood
(hydrological and hydrodynamic) modeling and flood hazard assessment for selected
province/districts in selected River Basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan under
CARE for South Asia project.
A. Objective:
The main objective of the consultancy services is to conduct flood (hydrological and
hydrodynamic) and flash flood modeling and flood hazard assessment for selected
provinces/districts in selected River Basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. The
focus of this study will be on fluvial flooding and should use a hydrologic and
hydrodynamic modeling approach to generate1D, 2D and combined flood simulation
model results for fluvial flood hazard assessment. The details of selected
province/districts in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan is provided in following table.
Province/District Name
Flood Type
Bangladesh
Kurigram
Gaibandha
Jamalpur
River Floods
Pabna
Sirajganj
Sunamganj
Flash Floods
Kishoreganj
Barguna
Coastal Floods/ Patuakhali
Storm Surge Bhola
Satkhira
Cox’s Bazar
Nepal
River Flood
including Flash Province 2 & Bagmati Province
Floods
Pakistan
B. Scope of Work:
The scope of work is as follows:
Detailed consultations with the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), Agriculture
and Transport Sector teams of CARE for South Asia Project in Bangladesh, Nepal
and Pakistan to understand all the key activities, data requirements,
deliverables and timeline.
Presentation of the methodology, work plan, deliverables and timeline to the
PIU, Agriculture and transport Sector team CARE for South Asia Project in
Bangladesh Nepal and Pakistan.
Presentation of detail methodology and workplan with concerned government
authorities at federal and provincial levels.
Organize validation workshops with federal and provincial governments to
validate the findings and receive endorsement from the government.
Data:
Assessment of data needs for the study of hydrological and hydrodynamic
modeling, flood hazard assessment, and mapping.
Collection of data relevant for flood and flash flood modeling and flood hazard
assessment in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan.
Collection of hydrological, meteorological and other data from existing sources.
The data may include river cross-section data collected during recent studies
(within last 5 years) from relevant agencies in the project countries.
Develop inventory of data available for flood hazard assessment and mapping,
in particular the data needed for hydrological and hydrodynamic model
development.
Analysis of data gaps, including data quantity and quality related to
requirements for the completion of hydrological and hydrodynamic models for
studying riverine or fluvial flood hazards assessment.
Based on the data gaps identified, collection of all relevant data for the study,
such as time series: rainfall data, river water levels and discharges, hydrographs
for relevant rivers, historic flood information etc.
Collection of spatial information including river bathymetry, river cross sections,
watersheds, hydraulic structure data, digital surface and terrain level data, etc.
Furthermore, the collection of spatial information would include
development/acquisition of GIS layers serving the needs of hydrological
modelling, such as layers providing information on terrain slopes, soil type and
thickness, land cover, vegetation, etc., and for the presentation of model and
Initial scoping report elaborating on the methodologies for key activities, tools
and workplans for the consultancy (30 days after signing contract).
Potential flood hazard maps and GIS datasets (flood extents, depths, velocities
in appropriate GIS format and resolutions) for 1 in 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500-year
return periods on the basis of model simulations with the different climate
change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in 2030, 2050s and 2080s for selected
river basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan (6 months after signing
contract).
Detailed flood hazard assessment report with analysis and findings for selected
river basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan for both road transport and
agriculture sectors (8 months after signing contract).
Detailed final closure report covering the results and achievements including
knowledge products prepared, analysis, findings, lessons learnt, and conclusion
and recommendations (9 months after signing contract – to be discussed at
contract negotiation).
resources to complete activities and tasks and deliver quality outputs on time.
However, these are indicative and the firms are encouraged to propose
additional inputs required to complete the assignment within the schedule.
Intermittent
Title Qualification Experience Engagement
(Person Months)
Key Position
Senior Flood M.Sc./M.Tech. in Hydrology, 20 Years 4
Hazard Water Resource, Civil Engineering
Assessment with 20 years of relevant
Specialist - experience in integrated urban
Team Leader flood risk management, river
basin management, hydraulic
(International/ engineering, flood modelling,
Regional) operation and maintenance of
urban flood control and drainage
systems, hydrology, water
resources management, civil
engineering and disaster risk
management institutional issues.
The Team Leader should have
project management capability,
including managing teams of
national / international experts.
He/she should have excellent
communication skills,
presentation skills and ability to
prepare/manage preparation of
high-quality reports, project
documentation, and
communications materials, as
well as experience in working with
projects funded by international
donors (i.e. World Bank, ADB).
Hydrologist M.Sc./M.Tech. in Hydrology, 10 Years 6
Water Resource, Civil Engineering
with 10 years of relevant
experience in monitoring and
processing of hydro-
meteorological data, statistical
analyses of rainfall, water level
and discharge data, rainfall-runoff
modelling and flood forecasting.
Flood Hazard M.Sc./M.Tech. in Hydrology, 7 Years 6
Modeler
B. Selection Method
The Consultant will be selected in accordance with ADPC’s procurement process
and in compliance with the World Bank Procurement Regulations. Consulting
Firm will be selected on Consultant’s Qualification-based Selection (CQS).
C. Reporting Relationships
The Consultant will report to Project Director, CARE for South Asia Project,
Bangkok (Thailand) and work in close coordination with Country Project Lead,
CARE for South Asia project Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan.
D. Contract Duration
The contract duration will be for Twelve (12) months. It is important to note that
the firm will be expected to produce a few priority deliverables in the shortest
possible time.
E. Eligibility
State-owned enterprises (SOEs), NGOs and universities (either alone, joint
venture or sub-consultant) may be eligible to compete and be awarded
contracts only if they can establish, in an acceptable manner that they (i) are
legally and financially autonomous; (ii) operate under commercial law; and (iii)
are not under supervision by the agency they will work with.
F. How to apply: