Northern Lights Screening and Maturation of CO2 Storage Prospectivity
Northern Lights Screening and Maturation of CO2 Storage Prospectivity
Northern Lights Screening and Maturation of CO2 Storage Prospectivity
Abstract
The Northern Lights project is the transport and storage part of the world’s first full value chain CCS project
where CO2 from onshore industrial emitters will be injected and stored offshore, in the northern North Sea
(western coast of Norway). Storage resources, containment risks, information availability and development
costs are critical factors in the identification and maturation of a viable geological storage site, and are
challenging to objectively assess and compare for different geological storage concepts.
The subsurface candidates evaluated in the Northern Lights project included several geological storage
concepts such as a structural closure (Smeaheia), a depleted field (Heimdal) and a semi-regional sloping
saline aquifer (Aurora).
During the studies on the three potential storage sites, a workflow was created that incorporates a combination
of assessment parameters suitable for benchmarking, which supported the investment decision for the
Northern Lights CCS project by the three partners Equinor, Shell and Total.
Of the three candidates, the Aurora area represented the most prospective site because of its larger potential
for high resource scalability. Key data gaps were addressed by high-risk pre-investments in an exploration
well aimed at confirming and maturing the CO2 storage resources.
A set of tools are hereby proposed to highlight uncertainties, risks and opportunities when screening and
ranking CO2 prospective storage sites. These tools are to be considered an ever-green and evolving
philosophy, which form the foundation of what is considered most relevant when screening and building a
portfolio of prospective CO2 geological storage sites.
The recent sanction of the Northern Lights project by Prospective CO2 storage portfolio pre-sanction
the three (3) partners (Equinor, Shell and Total) is
considered a success story of an emerging and very Halland et al. (2011) provide an excellent starting
complex business model that is key for the future point for a high-level screening of potential CO2
strategic position of the Energy sector in the transition storage resources in the Norwegian Continental Shelf
to a decarbonized industry. (NCS). For the Northern Lights project in specific,
three (3) prospective CO2 storage sites were assessed
The intention of the Northern Lights project, is to (Figure 2), encompassing a range of concepts such as
build a strong partnership with the Norwegian structural closures (Smeaheia), depleted gas fields
government to contribute in their shared ambition to (Heimdal), and a sloping semi-regional aquifer
build a CCS project that would stimulate the (Aurora).
necessary development of CCS so that long-term
climate targets in Norway and the European Union Figure 2 illustrates the position of the investigated
can be attained at a lowest possible cost. prospects in the northern North Sea, as well as the
location of the temporary storage site onshore
The Northern Lights project scope includes ship (Naturgassparken).
transport, onshore temporary storage, pipeline
transport to an offshore injection well, and injection of
CO2 for storage in the Aurora site, within the
Exploitation License 001 (EL001). A full chain
schematic is shown in Figure 1 and the locations of
the onshore facility, pipeline and injection well are
shown in Figure 2.
Core Activity I – Storage Resources & Scalability: The IEAGHG (2009) report and Pawar et al. (2015)
define a risk management framework that indicate that
This core activity includes the characterization of the the way risks are communicated is as relevant as it is
reservoir storage units using rock properties from to manage them.
available well data. The use of seismic data and
geological concepts are determinant, particularly In response to this necessity, Pawar et al. (2015),
where well data is scarce, e.g., in semi-regional Bourne et al. 2014 and Tucker et al. (2013) have
sloping saline aquifers, which are not targeted by proposed the ‘’bowtie’’ approach as an extremely
hydrocarbon exploration. useful tool to summarize and communicate any
geological and man-made (i.e., legacy wells)
Traditional hydrocarbon exploration workflows, migration paths that could possibly lead to CO2
including building alternative geological models that flowing out of the pre-established licensed storage
match seismic observations and a probability of complex. This tool is also used to summarize and
success (POS) to find an injectable, laterally extensive communicate the assessed barriers effectiveness and
and monitorable reservoir, are fundamental. potential consequences and mitigations. The bow-tie
method has also been applied to the Smeaheia and
In order to maximize storage resources, and optimize Aurora containment risk assessments, the latter is
utilization of the planned or existing infrastructure, the described in Vebenstad et al. (2021).
rate of capacity increase, or scalability, is most
relevant. The relevance of legacy wells when selecting an
appropriate CO2 storage side has been particularly
Scalability is defined as the ability to increase storage highlighted by Tucker (2018).
and/or injection capacity with additional injection
well(s), for a determined period of time. High levels Core Activity III – Costs & Risk mitigation: This
of scalability are achieved by high sustained subsurface core activity includes elements associated
injectivity per injector well, which is only possible to CO2 transport (e.g., pipelines, shipping), but also to
with a large connected pore volume. the number of wells required to reach a sustained
injection rate required to build commercial
Addressing pore connectivity implies the investigation agreements. These wells could be new or re-utilized.
of the aquifer dynamic behaviour, including time-
dependent effects on injectivity, containment and Moreover, considerations of additional investments
ultimately on storage resources. for data acquisition (e.g., exploratory or appraisal
well), but also other efforts or studies affecting
Confident estimations of CO2 storage resources & maturation time, are considered part of a risk
scalability are key inputs to define committable and mitigation plan and associated costs.
marketable volumes required to build commercial
agreements. A risk mitigation plan includes building a Storage
Complex Monitoring (SCM) plan that incorporates
Core Activity II – Containment Risk assessment: activities to ensure containment (storage safety) and
This core activity includes the identification of conformance (storage effectiveness) by monitoring the
potential CO2 migration paths out of the storage CO2 plume using proven technologies. In addition, the
SCM plan incorporates necessary response actions to Other criteria such as the abandonment condition of
address any concern related to conformance and legacy wells, fault reactivation risk, natural or induced
containment. seismicity, are considered essential input that define
the Risk factor.
Site-specific feasibility studies for borehole and
surface geophysical monitoring technologies form an Additional criteria associated to Risk that are usually
important basis for the SCM plan, including desirable but not always fundamental can be the
applicability of methods such as seismic, gravimetry, presence of a structural closure, or hydraulic isolation
and controlled source electromagnetic. from nearby hydrocarbon producing reservoirs.
Hydraulic communication with freshwater resources,
A complete SCM plan is required to build trust and or any interference with other human activities, can be
meet requirements authorities and other relevant naturally considered showstoppers, particularly for
stakeholders. Logically, a risk-based SCM plan must onshore storage sites.
also be cost effective, hence the close link between
Costs and Risk mitigation. In terms of the Cost factor, the below screening
criteria are defined based on the core activity III –
Screening criteria Costs & Risk mitigation.
Different screening criteria have been defined
covering the above-mentioned subsurface core ➢ Distance to existing infrastructure or CO2 source,
activities of a CO2 storage assessment. In order to ➢ New injectors / legacy well re-utilization,
estimate Storage Resources & Scalability (core ➢ Legacy wells requiring intervention.
activity I), beyond the static pore space volume, the
below criteria are considered critical, i.e., if they are The distance to existing infrastructure or CO2 source
insufficient or not present it would result in a serious could directly affect the engineering concept for CO2
red flag on the prospective CO2 storage site: transport, which is logically linked to the Cost factor.
Other criteria such as the presence of baffling or A less critical but essential criterion to be considered
sealing faults, pressure regime, water salinity or is the potential of re-utilizing existing infrastructure.
presence of hydrocarbons, are also relevant aspects In addition, the behaviour of the mobile CO2 plume,
associated to Storage Resources & Scalability. whether it is expected to be constrained within a
limited area or not, could significantly affect the costs
On the other hand, for the Risk factor, the screening of the SCM plan.
criteria below are considered critical, i.e., not being
present or insufficient would result on a serious red All of the screening criteria introduced are heavily
flag on the prospective CO2 storage site. depending on the Data Availability in the potential
storage site in order to make a sound subsurface
➢ Caprock Integrity / bounding fault seal capacity, assessment. This includes a confident definition of
➢ Monitorability. storage resources and a realistic assessment of the risk
picture, which might result in additional investments
These two (2) criteria are combination of elements of necessary to improve data availability.
core activity II - Risk assessment (e.g., containment
risk) and core activity III – Costs & Risk mitigation Business attractiveness
(e.g., SCM plan or legacy well intervention plan),
which results in a holistic view of the residual risks The Business Position or Business Attractiveness of a
associated to the prospective CO2 storage site. CO2 geological storage site depends upon different
cost-benefit factors, that in the Northern Lights project
could be approximated to the following relationship:
Precambrian basin, gives clear warning signs in terms
𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 & 𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝐴𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑥 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡
(1) of containment risks.
A much larger distance to the onshore facilities Aurora data gaps: Given the uncertainties associated
(Naturgassparken), together with conclusions from to the expected reservoir properties, sand extension
more recent internal studies, resulted in a decision to and connectivity, but also associated to the
postpone the development of this storage site towards characterization of the overlying Drake Formation as
later stages of the Northern Lights project, particularly the main seal and possible hydraulic communication
due to the identification of possible integrity issues to the Troll field, an exploratory well was therefore
with two (2) of the legacy wells, which may require drilled and tested from December 2019 to March 2020
future investments to ensure CO2 containment. to address risks associated to:
Making use of the relationship (1) and the above- ➢ Sand presence and quality,
mentioned screening criteria, the estimated Business ➢ Monitorability,
Attractiveness for Heimdal as a CO2 geological ➢ Seal,
storage is considered to be Medium, due to a ➢ Ability to flow,
relatively high Storage Resources & Scalability but ➢ Connectivity,
higher Cost and Risk factors. ➢ Containment,
➢ Exposure to neighboring hydrocarbon bearing
Aurora semi-regional sloping saline aquifer: reservoirs.
Despite having significant uncertainties due to data
gaps, the expected high Business Attractiveness, based The estimated Business Attractiveness for the Aurora
on the relationship (1) and the above-mentioned storage site was considered sufficiently high to
warrant an additional investment, through an
exploratory well, to close significant data gaps.
diminishing quality of the sandstone towards the top
The scalable way – 31/5-7 (Eos) well results: A of the Johansen Formation. Formation evaluation log
series of geological scenarios have been developed data, pressure mobility and core data showed excellent
pre-well and certain criteria have been set up to make quality of the sandstone units in the Dunlin Group
swift decision to decide on the success of the 31/5-7 which was confirmed during a production test in the
(Eos) exploration well and by that the success for the Johansen Formation that is interpreted to a Kh-product
continuation of the Northern Lights project within the (permeability multiplied with reservoir net thickness)
specified timeframe. These project acceptance criteria of 72 Dm and a radius of investigation of 2200 m –
were subdivided into the broad categories of seal, 3200 m without encountering any barriers (Table 2).
formation pressure and sand, including the sand lateral Given the good quality of the sandstones, the
extension and quality as well as the dynamic monitorability with 4D seismic is assessed to be
behaviour of the Johansen Formation as shown in feasible and the expectation is that CO2 can be
Table 1. monitored in layers down to 5-7 m thickness with
20% CO2 saturation.
The sand presence and its quality were highly Core descriptions and correlations with the Troll area
uncertain factors pre-drill due to the under-appraised were carried out to update and constrain the
nature of EL001. The 31/5-7 (Eos) well encountered depositional systems to be implemented into the static
both Cook and Johansen formations with 57 m and reservoir model. Based on core description, marginal
116 m thickness respectively. Also, the Johansen to shallow-marine systems with interplay of fluvial,
Formation contains mainly sandstone, with high tidal and wave processes, have been interpreted for
quality sandstone in the lower and middle part and the Cook and Johansen fms. The northwards extend of
the Johansen Formation in the Aurora area towards
Troll is not possible to prove with only one well.
Nevertheless, with the assessment of core data, log
correlation, assessment of seismic amplitudes and the
investigation radius from the well test, the connection
of the system from the 31/5-7 (Eos) well towards Troll
is given an increased likelihood and confidence.
Figure 9 shows a qualitative indication of how the Figure 10 compares the analysed types of prospective
analysed types of prospective CO2 storage sites may CO2 storage sites are positioned in terms of Business
generally rank when compared to each other. Attractiveness, as defined in the relationship (1). It is
also highlighted how relevant Data availability is in
This screening tool is developed from the Aurora order to close gaps linked to estimations of
project acceptance criteria (Table 1), joint with attractiveness. Error bars indicate that a detailed
learnings from the assessments done over Smeaheia assessment of each prospective CO2 storage site is
and Heimdal areas. The tool is based on an ‘’Evidence crucial to determine a Business Attractiveness with a
Support Logic’’ assessment, also known as ‘’Italian higher level of confidence.
flag’’, used to communicate the existence of evidence
in favor (green) or evidence against (red) meeting a
specific criterion. The ‘’white space’’ is used to
indicate uncertainty or data gaps.
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Figure captions