Stolyarov Finan P Answer Keys
Stolyarov Finan P Answer Keys
Stolyarov Finan P Answer Keys
These answer keys are meant to assist students using Marcel B. Finan's A Probability Course
for the Actuaries. With Dr. Finan's permission, Mr. Stolyarov wrote solutions for the problems
in his study guide and has endeavored to make the answer keys to each section publicly
available. Do the problems at the end of each section and then check your answers with these
keys.
Dr. Finan's study guide is an excellent resource for those preparing to take Actuarial Exam P on
probability.
Problems that require numerical answers are answered here, but it is still the responsibility of the
student to provide his or her own work for these problems. These answers are meant to enable
students to independently verify the correctness of their reasoning by checking to see if the end
result they obtained is correct. Questions from the study guide that require proofs or diagrams are
not addressed here.
The answers in this document are current as of August 2008 and were previously published on
Associated Content / Yahoo! Voices. The contents of A Probability Course for the Actuaries
have been greatly expanded since that time, and some of the problem numbers have changed,
while new sections have been added. While updates to these answer keys are possible in the
future, Mr. Stolyarov’s priority in July 2014 has been to republish the existing answer keys
within this PDF document, so as to preserve them subsequent to the closure of Yahoo! Voices on
July 30, 2014.
1
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 1.
Answer 1.2a. HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, TTT, TTH, THT, THH
Answer 1.2b.
F={x│x is an element of S with more than one head} = {x|x is an element of S with at least
two heads}
Answer 1.3. E={HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, TTH, THT, THH}. The outcomes with more than
one head are, HHH, HHT, HTH. Thus, F={HHH, HHT, HTH,THH}. Thus, F is a subset of E,
since F contains only elements that are also in E.
Section 2.
2
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 2.6. 50% of the population owns an automobile or a house, but not both.
Answer 2.7. 5% of visits to a PCP's office result in both lab work and referral to a specialist.
Answer 2.9. 53% of policyholders will renew at least one policy next year.
Answer 2.12. 10
Answer 2.15. 20% of the patients have a regular heartbeat and low blood pressure.
Section 3.
3
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 4.
Answer 4.6a. 5
Answer 4.6b. 20
Answer 4.6c. 60
4
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 5.
Answer 5.7. If all the money needs to be invested, 1771 ways. If not all the money needs to be
invested, 10,626 ways.
Answer 5.9b. 60
Section 6.
5
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 6.2. S={(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,H), (2,T), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5),
(3,6), (4,H), (4,T), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,H), (6,T)}
Answer 6.4a. S= {(1, 1), (1,2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4),
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4)}
Answer 6.4c. The probability of getting an outcome where the total score is at least six is 3/8; the
probability that the total score is less than 6 is 5/8.
Answer 6.6d.P(11)=0
6
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 7.
Answer 7.1c. 0
7
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 8.
P(B)=3/10=0.3
P(C)=1/10=0.1
8
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 9.
Answer 9.8. 45 of every 46 parts that make it through the inspection machine are good, but
1 of every 46 parts that make it through the inspection machine is defective.
9
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 10.
10
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 11.
Answer 11.5. 4
Answer 11.13a. The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. Let N denote the nickel, D
denote the dime, and Q denote the quarter. Let H denote heads and T denote tails. We will
express "the dime came up heads" as "DH."
S= {(NH, DH, QH), (NH, DH, QT), (NH, DT, QH), (NH, DT, QT), (NT, DH, QH),
A={(NH, DH, QH), (NH, DH, QT), (NH, DT, QH), (NT, DH, QH), (NT, DT, QH)}
B= {(NH, DH, QH), (NH, DT, QH), (NT, DH, QH), (NT, DT, QH)}
C= {(NH, DH, QH), (NH, DT, QH), (NT, DH, QT), (NT, DT, QT)}
Answer 11.13d. Since P(B and C)= P(B)*P(C)= ¼, B and C are independent.
11
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 12.
Section 13.
12
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 13.9a. X(s)= f:{HHH, HHM, HMH, HMM, MHH, MHM, MMH, MMM} → {0, 1, 2,
3}
Section 14.
Answer 14.1a. The following table shows this probability mass function:
x:--------0-----1----2-----3
P(x):--1/8---3/8--3/8---1/8
13
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0 for x
½ for 1≤x
1 for x≥3
Table:
x:--------2-----3-----4-----5-----6-----7-----8-----9-----10-----11-----12
P(x):--1/36--1/18--1/12-1/9--5/36-1/6--5/36-1/9---1/12---1/18---1/36
P(x):--1/4--1/2--1/4
F(y)= 0 for y
14
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
1 for y≥5
8/27 for 0≤ x
20/27 for 1≤ x
20/27 for 1≤ x
26/27 for 2≤ x
1 for x≥3
15
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
1/9, for x= 5,
5/36, for x= 6,
0 otherwise.
Answer 14.12. p(0) = 44/91; p(1) = 198/455; p(2) = 36/455; p(3) = 1/455
Section 15.
Answer 15.1. 7
Since E(X)>0, the owner can expect to make money over an extended period of time using
this spinner.
Answer 15.6. The company should charge each customer a premium of $26 to cover the payouts
and make a $20 profit per person.
16
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Thus, we can expect to lose about 54.5 cents per game on average.
Answer 15.11c. 0
0 otherwise
Answer 15.13a. p(1) = 7/210; p(2) = 63/210; p(3) = 105/210; p(4) = 35/210
17
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
1 for 4 ≤ x.
Section 16.
Answer 16.6. The expected payment for hospitalization is $220 under this policy.
0 otherwise.
18
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 16.12. For n = 1, E(S) = 108. For n = 2, E(S) = 115.2. For n = 3, E(S) = 121.6.
Section 17.
½ for x=3,
0 otherwise
19
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 17.8b. E(X)= 2/7= about 0.2857142857; E(X2) = 16/7= about 2.2857142857
Section 18.
0 otherwise
20
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 19.
Answer 19.1. e- 4=about 0.0183156389= probability of no car accident in one day. 8e-8= about
0.002683701= probability of 1 car accident in two days.
21
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 19.11.about$698.90
Answer 19.14. λ = 4
Section 20.
22
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 20.12a. 10
Answer 20.13b. X is a binomial random variable with pmf p(x) = C(20, x)(0.60)x(0.40)20-x,
Answer 20.23. 20
23
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 20.36. x = 4
Section 21.
24
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0, for x < 2,
1, for 15 ≤ x
Answer 21.2. The cdf of X can be expressed via the following table:
F(x)--------------0--------57/115---209/230--229/230---1
½ for x=0,
0 otherwise
25
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0 otherwise
1, for 4 ≤ x
0.4 for x= 1,
0 otherwise
26
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0 otherwise
0, for x < 1
1, for 12 ≤ x
27
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 22.
1/2, 0 ≤ x < 1,
1/6, 1 ≤ x < 4,
0 otherwise
28
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 22.15. θ= 2
Answer 22.16.
F(x)/F(a) for x ≤ a;
1 for x > a.
Section 23.
0, for x ≤ -1,
1, for x > 1
29
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0, for x
0.6x+0.4x3, for 0 ≤ x ≤ 1,
1, for x > 1
Answer 23.4. E(X)= 2/3= about 0.6666666666 Var(X)= 2/9= about 0.22222222222
30
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 23.22b. 80
Section 24.
0, for x ≤ 0
1, for x ≥1
31
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 24.11. a = 3
Section 25
32
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 26
33
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 27
34
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 27.8b. E(X)= 4/7= about 0.5714285714; Var(X)= 3/98= about 0.0306122449
0 for x
3x2-2x3 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 1,
1 for x > 1
0 for x ≤ 0,
1 for x ≥ 1.
35
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 28
Answer 28.8c. f R (r)= 1/r for 1< r < e, 0 otherwise; E(R)= e-1
0 for v ≤ 10000e0.04,
1 for v ≥ 10000e0.08
Answer 28.16. f Y (y) =[1/B(1/2, 1)] (y)1/2-1(1-y)1-1, which is the pdf of a beta random variable
with parameters (1/2, 1).
36
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 29
0 otherwise
37
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 29.6a. F XY (x, y)= [1- exp{(−x2)/2}][1- exp{(−y2)/2}], for 0 < x, y, 0 otherwise.
Answer 29.7. In order to make f XY (x, y) a joint pdf, we need to multiply it by a factor of (2-
a)(a+1).
38
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 29.22b. F XY (x, y), the joint cdf of X and Y is expressed by the following table:
X/Y---1----2
1-----0.2---0.7
2-----0.4---1
Section 30
39
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0 otherwise.
Answer 30.18. It is impossible that X and Y are independent, as .4 = P(X = 1|Y = 1) ≠ P(X =
1|Y = 0) = 0.7.
40
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 31
0 otherwise
Answer 31.2. p Z (z)= C(30, z)0.2z0.830-z, for z є {integers between 0 and 30, inclusive}, 0
otherwise.
¼ , for z=6.
0 otherwise
F Z (z)=
0, for z < 3,
¾ , for 5≤ z < 6,
1 , for 6≤ z
41
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
¼ if a= 0,
¼ if a = 1,
5/16 if a=2,
1/8 if a=3,
1/16 if a=4,
0 otherwise
1/6 if a = 1,
5/18 if a=2,
1/3 if a=3,
1/6 if a=4,
1/18 if a=5,
0 otherwise
42
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
0 otherwise
∞
Answer 31.15. f X+2Y (a)= -∞ ∫[f X (a-2y)f Y (y)]dy
7/6-a/2 for 1 ≤ a ≤ 2,
0 otherwise.
3/2 - a/4 if 4 ≤ a ≤ 6,
0 otherwise.
0 otherwise.
43
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 32
0 otherwise.
Answer 32.2b. p X|Y (x|1)= 60/137 for x=1, 30/137 for x=2, 20/137 for x=3, 15/137 for x=4,
12/137 for x=5, 0 otherwise.
p X|Y (x|2)= 30/77 for x=2, 20/77 for x=3, 15/77 for x=4, 12/77 for x=5, 0 otherwise.
p X|Y (x|3)= 20/47 for x=3, 15/47 for x=4, 12/47 for x=5, 0 otherwise.
½ for x=1,
0 otherwise.
p Y|X (y|3)= 2/5 for each y є {1, 2}, 1/5 for y=3, 0 otherwise.
44
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
p Y|X (y|4)= 2/7 for each y є {1, 2, 3}, 1/7 for y=4, 0 otherwise.
p Y|X (y|5)= 2/9 for each y є {1, 2, 3, 4}, 1/9 for y=5, 0 otherwise.
p Y|X (y|6)= 2/11 for each y є {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, 1/11 for y=6, 0 otherwise.
Answer 32.7. p X|Y (x|0)= 1/11 for x=0, 4/11 for x=1, 6/11 for x=2, 0 otherwise.
p X|Y (x|1)= 3/7 for x=0, 3/7 for x=1, 1/7 for x=2, 0 otherwise.
P(X = 0, Y = 0) = 188/221;
P(X = 1, Y = 0) = 16/221;
P(X = 1, Y = 1) = 16/221;
P(X = 2, Y = 1) = 1/221;
and 0 otherwise.
45
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
P(Y = 0) = 12/13;
P(Y = 1) = 1/13;
and 0 otherwise.
0 otherwise.
Section 33
Answer 33.1. f X|Y (x|y)= 3x2/(2 -2y3); f X|Y (x|0.5)= 12x2/7 for −1 ≤ x ≤ -0.5 or 0.5 ≤ x ≤ 1, 0
otherwise.
Answer 33.6a. f X|Y (x|y)=6x(1 − x) , for 0 < x < 1, 0 otherwise. X and Y are independent.
46
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 34
Answer 34.8. Hint: Show that f U (u) = [exp{-u2/2}/√(2π)], the pdf of a standard normal random
variable, and f V (v) = [exp{-v2/2}/√(2π)], the pdf of a standard normal random variable.
Section 35
47
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 36
Answer 36.3. Cov(X,Y)= 1/12= about 0.083333333; ρ(X,Y)= √(2)/2= about 0.7071067812
Answer 36.4a. Thus, f XY (x, y)=5 for -1 < x < 1, x2 < y < 0.1+x2, 0 otherwise
48
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 36.19a. f XY (x, y)= ½ for 0 < x < 1, 0 < y < 2, 0 otherwise.
½, for 1 < a ≤ 2,
0 otherwise
49
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 36.28. a= 2
XY--------0------1--------2------p X (x)
0----------0.25----0.08---0.05---0.38
1----------0.12----0.20---0.10---0.42
2----------0.03----0.07---0.10---0.20
p Y (y)-----0.40----0.35---0.25-----1
Section 37
Answer 37.2. E(X)= ½; Var(X)= 1/12; E(Y|X)= 3x/4; Var(Y|X)= 3x2/80; Var(Y)= 19/320;
E[Var(Y|X)]= 1/80; Var[E(Y |X)]= 3/64
50
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 37.11. E(X|Y = 1)= 2; E(X|Y = 2)= 5/3= about 1.6666666667; E(X|Y = 3)= 12/5= 2.4.
X and Y are not independent.
Section 38
51
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 39
Answer 39.1. Hint: Show that for all possible values of X, P(│X│≥ ε) = 1 and Chebyshev's
Inequality is in this case an equality.
52
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 39.5. P (0 < X < 40) ≥ 19/20 or P (0 < X < 40) ≥ 0.95
Answer 39.9. The probability of not having enough stock left by the end of the week is at
most 25/38 = about 0.6578947368.
Answer 39.12. P(X > 120) ≤ 100/121 = about 0.826446281; P(70 < X
Section 40
Answer 40.5. about 0.1357 or about 0.1367, depending on the rounding used.
53
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Answer 40.18a. X- is approximated by a normal distribution with mean 100 and variance 4.
Section 41
Answer 41.2. The Chernoff bounds for this random variable are
Answer 41.5. The Chernoff bounds for this random variable are
54
Answer Keys for the 2008 Edition of Marcel B. Finan’s “A Probability Course for the Actuaries”
Second Edition – G. Stolyarov II
Section 43
Answer 43.4. 0
1/2
∫1/2 1∫f(x, y)dydx + 1/2 1∫0 1∫f(x, y)dydx
55