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Group 1 STOCK PITCH

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アサヒグループホールディングス

(:)
Investment Thesis

Tokyo Stock Exchange


52 week range : JPY 4,895.0 - JPY 8,190.0
Market Cap : JPY 622.68B
Shares : 78.53M

Recommendation : Buy
Target Price : JPY 8,856
Company Introduction - Business Model

Cv+D+A

1. Convenience
: Long business hours and no holidays
2. Discount
: Low prices
3. Amusement
: New and creative products & Fun shopping
Sales by Products Category
Macro Overview

Increase in foreign visitors

- Weaker Yen

- Government policy
Macro Overview
Number of foreign tourists trends Additional tax-exemption products
& Foreign exchange rate (including food, medicines and cosmetics)
from Oct 1, 2014
Macro Overview

Price Sensitivity of Customers

- Drastic change in spending after


rise in consumption tax

- Opportunity for discount retailers

<Monthly sales increase compared to last year>


Market Overview
New Entrants
Florishing niche market of discount retail in Japan is attractive,
and there are many competitors with the knowledge and assets
to enter it
Buyers Power
Clients with low fidelity, often young, not attached in any way to the brand

Substitutes
Internet services offering lower prices and a higher selection

Suppliers
Import of a major parts of its products, and increasing reliance on import
SWOT Analysis

Strengths Weaknesses
- Dependence on the High-Traffic Urban
- Strong Brand
Areas
- Niche-like market
- Limited core client target
- Easy Capital Access
- Difficulty of a growth oversea
- Both Cost and Differentiation
- Legacy reputation

Opportunities Threats
- Cheap Yen
- Tokyo Olympics - A near untouched market segment that
- QE might attract big companies
- Increased tourism / migration - One man company
- Reinforcement of Internet based services
Investment Highlights
Increasing
MEGA
Inbound PB Products
Don Quijote Majica
Foreign Increase
Expansion
Tourists

Diverse Increase Reduce


New Source
customers Gross Investory
of Revenue
(families) Margin Risk

Revenue Driver Cost Cutter


Inbound Foreign Tourists
Influx of foreign tourists
- 22 Low Cost Carriers operate in and out of Japan
- 51 daily flights of LCC arrive at three major airports in Japan
(Kansai International Airport - 25 flights, Narita International Airport - 21 flights
Haneda International Airports 5 flights)

- Weaker Yen makes Japan a favorable place to travel

- Widening in variety of items that are eligible for tax-returns, increasing


spending of foreign tourists.
Mega Don Quijote Stores

New larger format


Expanding their target to families
from 2008

No real estate investment


Openings at former GMS locations

New customer segment


Mainly families and housewives
PB Brand Sales Increase
Jonetsu Kakaku
- Late October 2009

- 2800 products
(Daily necessities, food, clothing, appliances)

- Contribute to annual 7% growth in


gross profit

- Contribute to maintaining gross


profit margin of average 26%
Introduction of Majica
Over 120 million people became members of Majica (as of June, 2014) Launched March, 2014
Revenue Increased
: membership price on high margin products
Reduce Inventory Risk
: display change with consumer purchase information

+7.7% +5.9%
Valuation (Comparative Analysis)
- Mixed result in comparison to peer group.
- Unable to determine possitive or negative
Valuation (Discounted Cash Flow Analysis)

- Fair amount of potential

- Expect steady growth

- Favorable situation

BUY
Risk Factors
Cheap Yen
Higher cost of import
Yen in Dollars

Long-run threats
Reinforcement of the internet competition
AMZN 5 years

Import uncertainty
Higher and higher dependency on imports
Import Prices
Questions to CEO

- Possible foreseeable changes to customers'


preference toward store concept?

- If value of Yen drops further, how will the


company deal with rise in import prices and
maintain being a discount store?
Q&A

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