4 Sample Industry Analysis
4 Sample Industry Analysis
4 Sample Industry Analysis
Sample Industry
Analysis
Machine Shops
11.13.2017
NAICS CODES: 33271
SIC CODES: 3599
Industry Overview
Companies in this industry use machine tools to modify metal, plastic, and composite materials to produce
finished products. No major companies dominate the industry.
Worldwide, revenue for machine shops varies with manufacturing output. Because machine shops play a
manufacturing support role, often operating as de facto subsidiaries of their customers, their work tends to be
local.
The US machine shop industry includes about 20,000 companies with combined annual revenue of about $37
billion.
Competitive Landscape
Demand depends on manufacturing activity. The profitability of individual companies is linked to engineering
expertise and operating efficiency. Larger shops have the ability to invest in advanced production machinery.
Smaller shops can compete effectively by serving specialized customers, or by providing engineering services.
The US industry is highly fragmented: the 50 largest companies generate about 10% of revenue.
The machines that perform these operations are usually expensive and often computer-controlled. Machine
tools vary by the type of operation they perform, the size of a piece they process, and the precision of their
operations. Many are operated with computer numerical controls (CNC). Machine shops may own dozens of
different machine tools produced by a variety of manufacturers. Modern machine shops are highly automated,
with computer programs aiding the design of parts, as well as controlling the machines that are used to
manufacture them. Parts may be moved from one machine to another manually or using robotics. Aside from a
few US companies, many major machine tool makers are German, Japanese, or Swiss.
As the methods for machining have become more technologically complex, so too have the tools for managing
shop operations. Many providers of customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource
planning (ERP) software, particularly those aimed at the small and mid-size business segments, offer application
suites tailored for the manufacturing sector. There are also software vendors dedicated specifically to
developing tools for managing machine shop processes. Such software can help businesses submit bids, order
materials, schedule jobs, manage inventory, and track shipments.
Four major operating activities in machine shops are pre-production, machine setup, actual production, and
quality control. Machine setup for a particular job can be time-consuming and can hugely affect costs. Major
material costs for machine shops are the expensive, specially hardened l bits consumed in the various
operations, including drilling bits, milling heads, cutting tools, and abrasives.
Technology
More machine shops are expected to invest in robotics to enhance productivity, reduce operating costs, and
increase competitiveness. North American industrial robot shipments rose 10% in 2016 over 2015 levels,
according to the Robotic Industries Association.
Additive manufacturing, also known as 3D printing, is another technology with applications in machine shops.
Additive manufacturing produces solid, three-dimensional objects by successively layering materials according to
a digital design. Hybrid machine tools are being developed that combine additive and subtractive (cutting, milling,
turning, and grinding) manufacturing technologies to offer machinery capable of a wider variety of parts with
complex geometric shapes.
Major end-users include the aerospace, automotive, chemical, electronics, medical, oil and gas, and industrial
machinery industries. New work is often acquired through job bidding. While pricing is always a consideration
for new business, product quality and the ability to meet production timetables are often of greater concern.
Management expertise is very important in properly pricing a bid, since the workability of materials, the
complexity of machine setup, and the capabilities of individual pieces of machinery can vary substantially.
The US industry's working capital turnover ratio averages about 25%. Shops generally don't have large
investments in inventory, because customers typically provide materials. There is very little seasonality in
production or cash flow, but the industry is susceptible to customer work stoppages and economic cycles, which
can produce highly uneven and unpredictable cash flow. The value of inventory is usually about 10% of sales,
and inventories turn about six times per year. Machine shop inventories tend to be split evenly between finished
goods, work-in-progress, and raw materials.
Demand for machining services depends on the level of US manufacturing activity, which can vary significantly
from year to year. Many machine shops depend directly on the health of a single end-use industry. The machine
shop industry gets large amounts of business from the auto and aircraft industries and electronics and industrial
machinery producers. If a major customer or industry group closes or moves manufacturing operations, local
machine shops may experience a precipitous drop in demand, and collection periods and questionable accounts
may increase. Accounts receivable average about 50 days, but collection periods tend to be longer for smaller
companies (under $5 million in annual sales).
The working capital turnover ratio, also known as working capital to sales, is a measure of
how efficiently a company uses its capital to generate sales. Companies should be
compared to others in their industry.
Financial industry data provided by MicroBilt Corporation collected from 32 different data sources and represents
financial performance of over 4.5 million privately held businesses and detailed industry financial benchmarks of
companies in over 900 industries (SIC and NAICS). More data available at www.microbilt.com.
Regulation
Because of the nature of working with metals, including the use of lubricants and solvents and the production of
sizable amounts of metallic wastes, machine shops can have environmental pollution problems, particularly with
regard to ground contamination and toxic waste disposal. Some types of machining operations can also
release fine particles into the air, creating hazardous workplace conditions unless proper control steps are taken.
The EPA administers environmental pollution regulations; OSHA administers workplace regulations.
International Insights
The global machine shop industry is dependent on the level of international manufacturing activity. However,
because machine shops play a manufacturing support role, often operating as de facto subsidiaries of their
customers, machine shop work tends to be local, and is less prone to crossing international boundaries than
many other types of manufacturing.
Demand for machine shop work within a given region or country is determined by demand for other manufactured
products further up the supply chain within that region. China, with its massive build-up of manufacturing
capacity and factory output, is a hotbed of machine shop growth. China is currently the offshore
manufacturing headquarters for manufacturers in the US, Canada, and Western Europe. But rising wages, a
rapidly growing middle class, and higher transportation costs may prompt some western manufacturers to look
for low-cost manufacturing elsewhere, often much closer to where a product will be purchased or consumed. For
US companies this "nearshoring" may mean moving offshore manufacturing operations from China to Latin
America, or even back to the US. For Western European manufacturers, outsourced operations might be moved
from India or China to Eastern Europe. Increased investments in industrial automation technologies, including
robotics, are also expected to fuel the nearshoring trend.
The migration of manufacturing capacity as it follows global trends in wages and transportation costs will affect
where demand for machine shop work rises or declines. Where machine shop work will be in high demand also
depends on several key industries. In 2009, China surpassed the US as the world's largest automobile market.
But after years of rapid growth, China's automotive market is expected to be relatively flat in 2017, according to
Scotiabank. Among emerging markets, Eastern Europe is expected to experience the strongest demand growth
for automobiles. Automotive markets in Russia and South America are forecast to rebound somewhat in 2017.
Fabricated metal products are another industry that drives demand for machine shops. The rising affluence of
many emerging economies will drive demand for machinery, appliances, and computers which would increase
the need for the specialized bolts, screws, nuts, and other machined or turned products made in machine shops.
Imports of machine shop products to the US come primarily from Taiwan, China, Japan,
Germany, and Canada. Major export markets for US machine shop products include
Mexico, Canada, China, UK, and Germany.
3327 BOLTS, NUTS, SCREWS, RIVETS, WASHERS AND OTHER TURNED
PRODUCTS
Regional Highlights
In the US, machine shops are most prevalent in states that lead in key customer segments such as aerospace,
automotive, and energy. Measured by number of establishments, California, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois
are the top states for machine shops; greater Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston lead among metro areas.
Human Resources
Machine shop jobs require strong technical and engineering skills, but many employees are machine
operators who need only equipment-specific training. Average hourly pay for the industry is about the same as
the national rate.
The safety record of the industry has improved with the greater use of computer-controlled machinery that
removes the operator from the actual point of machining. However, the industry injury rate is still significantly
higher than the national average.
11.13.2017
Opportunity: US Manufacturing Technology Orders Rise - US orders for manufacturing technology, a
demand indicator for machine shops, are expected to grow in 2018. Manufacturing technology orders increased
14% in August 2017 compared to the same month a year earlier, according to the Association for Manufacturing
Technology (AMT). While monthly manufacturing technology orders have been uneven throughout most of 2017,
both in terms of sales volumes and regional concentrations in demand, the AMT expects to see growth in 2018,
both in the US and other major global markets. Among leading end-use markets, manufacturing technology orders
have been strong for job shops, power generation, and aerospace, but demand from the automotive industry has
slowed. Strong growth in corporate profits among durable goods manufacturers is expected to underpin sustained
investments in machinery as manufacturers seek to expand production capacity. Manufacturers may also be
spurred into making equipment investments while interest rates are still low in anticipation of higher rates over the
next two years.
Industry Impact - Amid rising profits for durable goods manufacturers and low interest rates, machine shops
may invest in new metalworking machinery ahead of anticipated interest rate increases.
8.14.2017
Opportunity: US Manufacturing Growth Accelerates - US manufacturing activity, a leading demand indicator
for machine shops, grew in June 2017 at the fastest pace in nearly three years, according to the Institute for
Supply Management. Overall, manufacturers reported faster growth in production, new orders, employment, order
backlogs, and exports. Of 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in June. Among the industries
reporting growth, several represent key customer groups for machine shops, including machinery; electrical
equipment, appliances, and components; transportation equipment; chemical products; fabricated metal products;
and petroleum and coal products. June's growth suggests that manufacturers are expanding even amid fading
hope for near-term government action on tax reform and infrastructure spending, according to Bloomberg.
Industry Impact - If demand from the manufacturing sector remains robust, machine shops may invest in new
equipment to increase productivity and production capacity.
5.15.2017
Opportunity: US Durable Goods Orders Rise - US orders for durable goods, a demand indicator for machine
shops, increased 3.6% in the first three months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. A 5.9% rise in
metalworking machinery orders may signal that machine shops are making investments in new equipment amid
improved demand. Orders also improved in several manufacturing industries that represent key customer groups
for machine shops. Fabricated metal product orders grew nearly 6%, and new orders for industrial machinery saw
gains of 4.3%. Orders for transportation equipment increased nearly 3%, led by motor vehicle bodies, parts, and
nondefense aerospace products. New orders for mining, oil field, and gas field equipment declined 13.2%, but the
energy sector is showing signs of improvement. Recent reports by energy services firm Baker Hughes show
steady gains in oil rig counts as drillers continue to increase production. However, US 2017 first-quarter GDP
grew at the slowest rate in three years amid tepid consumer spending, particularly for expensive items including
automobiles.
Industry Impact - Machine shops may focus marketing efforts on customer industries that are showing signs of
sustained demand, including fabricated metal products, industrial machinery, and nondefense aircraft and parts.
2.20.2017
Opportunity: US Manufacturing Activity Gains Momentum - Continued expansion in the US manufacturing
sector may signal a return to stronger demand for machine shop services. US manufacturing activity increased
in January 2017 for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its highest level in two years, according to the Institute
for Supply Management. Of 12 manufacturing industries reporting growth in January, several represent major
customer groups for machine shops, including plastics and rubber products; transportation equipment; machinery;
petroleum and coal products; and fabricated metal products. Overall, manufacturers reported faster growth in
production, new orders, and employment. A moderating of the strength of the US dollar and a stabilization in
commodity prices may be contributing to higher demand for US manufactured goods, both at home and in export
markets, according to The Wall Street Journal. Manufacturers are also encouraged by the Trump administration's
promises to reduce taxes and implement regulatory reforms.
Industry Impact - Sustained growth in the US manufacturing sector may benefit machine shop operators that
serve customers in the automotive, aerospace, machinery, and energy sectors.
Industry Indicators
US durable goods manufacturers' shipments of fabricated metal products, an indicator of demand for machine
shop services, rose 7.5% year-to-date in October 2017 compared to the same period in 2016.
US steel mill product prices, an indicator of commodity steel costs for machine shops, rose 8.8% in November
2017 compared to the same month in 2016.
Industry Forecast
Revenue (in current dollars) for US machine shops is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4%
between 2017 and 2021. Data Published: September 2017
First Research forecasts are based on INFORUM forecasts that are licensed from the Interindustry Economic
Research Fund, Inc. (IERF) in College Park, MD. INFORUM's "interindustry-macro" approach to modeling the
economy captures the links between industries and the aggregate economy. Forecast FAQs
Companies
Industry Drivers
Changes in the economic environment that may positively or negatively affect industry growth.
Construction Spending Change in the overall level of commercial and residential construction spending
Commodity Prices Changes in prices for commodities, such as crops, metals, and other raw materials
Critical Issues
Dependence on Manufacturing - Demand for machining services depends on the level of US manufacturing
activity, which can vary significantly from year to year. During the recession of the late 2000s, US industrial
production fell about 15%, and machine shop production fell more than 25%. Machine shop shipments rose by
17% between 2010 and 2011 as manufacturing activity rebounded.
Industrial, Geographic Concentration - Many machine shops depend directly on the health of a single end-use
industry. The machine shop industry gets large amounts of business from the auto and aircraft industries and
electronics and industrial machinery producers. Producers of auto parts, for example, often cluster operations
around a major car assembly plant. If a major customer or industry group closes or moves manufacturing
operations, local machine shops may experience a precipitous drop in demand.
Business Challenges
High Capital Investment - Machine shops own and operate machinery that customers can't efficiently use
themselves (usually because they don't need it full-time). Machining equipment often costs hundreds of
thousands of dollars. To be able to perform all the machining work that customers want, a shop may own (or
lease) dozens of machines.
Customers Shift Production to Lower-Cost Countries - To make products at lowest cost, many US
companies have shifted manufacturing capabilities to lower-cost countries such as Mexico. US-based machine
shops typically aren't in a position to follow customers out of the country.
Competition from Customers - Machine shop customers continually face the choice of outsourcing production
to a machine shop or bringing it in-house. To keep business, machine shops must either produce work of superior
quality or at lower costs. In addition to competing with other shops, they effectively compete with their own
customers.
Business Trends
Unattended Operations - Computer numerical controls (CNC) machine tools can work on parts without an
operator and provide continuous production if attached to automated feeding machines of robotic systems that
supply fresh raw materials. Many traditional machines have been reconfigured to make unattended operations
easier. For example, traditional horizontal lathes can be replaced with vertical, spindle-inverted turning machines
that can more easily accept parts on their work platform.
Ceramic Cutting Tools - Many superhard materials can't be adequately machined with traditional metal-cutting
tools. Ceramics technology has produced cutting tools made from ultrahard mineral composites like silicon
nitride, silicon carbide, and zirconium oxide, which, while more expensive than steel, are more durable.
Additive Manufacturing - While subtractive techniques such as milling are typical in machine shops, additive
manufacturing processes are becoming more prevalent for prototyping and production. Examples of additive
processes include 3D printing, which creates three dimensional objects by joining successive layers of material.
Because additive manufacturing processes build parts close to specification with minimal machining
requirements, such technologies have the potential to help companies save on material costs and cut design and
fabrication times.
Factories to See More Mobile Devices - Though initially practiced primarily by corporate executives, the bring-
your-own-device (BYOD) phenomenon is spreading to US manufacturing workers, who are bringing their
smartphones and tablets to work and using them to remotely monitor and control industrial equipment. As mobile
devices become more prevalent on the factory floor, companies may issue ruggedized devices to employees, or
mount them to the sides of machinery to wirelessly provide visualization and control of manufacturing
processes. In response to the trend, leading industrial automation vendors have released more mobile apps.
Going wireless comes with the security risk of cyber-attacks and other network breaches.
Industry Opportunities
Outsourcing - Many manufacturers that produce high volumes of a particular metal product incorporate
machining in their regular manufacturing process. However, manufacturers that produce smaller batches of
products (or that frequently make different products) can reduce costs by outsourcing the machining to
independent shops. The development of "lean" manufacturing techniques, including just-in-time inventory
replenishment, has favored outsourcing to machine shops that can guarantee quality and on-time delivery.
CAD/CAM - Most industrial products are now developed using CAD software. Machine tools that can machine
parts directly from the software designs (such as machining centers with automatically interchangeable cutting
tools) are more productive and more precise than the traditional multi-step machining process. Computer-aided
manufacturing (CAM) requires close coordination between machine shops, customers, and nontraditional technical
skills.
Pre-Production Design - To minimize production costs, a customer's parts can be designed to take best
advantage of the various machining capabilities. Some machine shops become closely involved with customers
in the design process, and can offer extensive CAD capabilities.
Advanced Machinery - Newer machining techniques such as electrical discharge machines (EDM), robotics,
waterjet cutting, and lasers allow machine shops to offer new services. These techniques require machinery
upgrades and advanced machinist training.
Nonmetal Machining - Although metals account for the bulk of machining that most shops do, plastics,
ceramics, and composite materials are being used in more manufactured products. Such materials often require
specialized machining equipment and operating skills.
Cutting Energy Costs - Because they typically operate multiple pieces of heavy equipment, machine shops
face high electricity costs. Efforts to decrease energy usage include the use of high-efficiency motors that lower
electricity consumption. Proper equipment maintenance is also crucial; improperly maintained tools such as leaky
air compressors can significantly impact utility costs.
Executive Insight
Financing Equipment
Machine shops have substantial investment in machinery. Equipment is very expensive and individual machines
can cost several hundred thousand dollars. Equipment is typically financed by the manufacturer or a bank, or
may be leased. Some machine shops buy used equipment to save money.
Human Resources - HR
Hiring and Retaining Employees
Operating machines requires technical and engineering skills. Shops recruit workers with technical skills and
managers with strong technical backgrounds. Keeping qualified and skilled workers is crucial, so companies strive
to retain their skilled workforce even when the workload is reduced.
Training Employees
Machine tools are becoming increasingly complex and technological advances are creating new processes. More
machines are computer-controlled and require specific knowledge to operate. Companies train employees on new
machines and the technology required to operate them. The more technologically advanced machines have
increased productivity while containing labor costs.
VP Sales/Marketing - Sales
Working Closely with Customers in Design
Most machine shops are small and market locally, and sometimes specialize in a particular customer industry.
Machine shops have much contact with customers, including close technical cooperation. Shops work closely with
customers in pre-production design to minimize costs and maximize part quality while ensuring customer
satisfaction.
What is the company's strategy to ensure product quality, while competing with low-cost shops and
customer in-house operations?
Companies improve production processes and product quality, such as strength and tolerance, to compete with
low-priced and in-house shops.
What financing strategies does the company have for buying new or used equipment?
Equipment is typically financed by the manufacturer or the local bank, or may be leased.
How does the company use CAD software and CAM processes?
CAD/CAM technology is more precise than traditional processes, producing higher quality finished products with
less waste.
Human Resources - HR
How is the company challenged by hiring and retaining skilled employees?
Experienced technical workers and engineers are crucial, so companies strive to retain their skilled workforce
even when the workload is reduced.
How are newer, more complex machines affecting the company's training?
More machines are computer-controlled and increasingly complex, requiring specific knowledge to operate.
VP Sales/Marketing - Sales
How important is close customer contact during the design stage for the company?
Shops work closely with customers in pre-production design to minimize costs and maximize part quality while
ensuring customer satisfaction.
How does the company gain access to companies that issue RFPs?
Sales executives call on local manufacturers to establish relationships for future opportunities, and sales teams
solicit RFPs from prospects.
What production outsourcing opportunities does the company expect from customers?
Many manufacturers that produce high volumes of a particular metal product incorporate machining in their
regular manufacturing process.
What computer programs are company engineers and designers using to develop products?
Most industrial products are now developed using CAD software.
How much pre-production design work does the company do for customers?
To minimize production costs, a customer's parts can be designed to take best advantage of the various
machining capabilities.
Do customers usually provide raw materials or buy raw materials from metal centers?
Typically, customers bring in semi-finished products for further processing.
Which end-use industries account for a large percentage of work for the company?
Customer concentrations are frequent.
How often does the company have to go through a bidding process to land new business?
Manufacturers may ask several machine shops to bid on a piece of business.
How does the company recruit and retain engineers and machinists?
Because machinists often have special skills, companies try to retain them even when the workload is thin.
Financial Analysis
How does the company finance large-scale production?
Companies may receive progress payments on large jobs.
How much of the company's business comes from its largest customers?
In some cases, machine shops are de facto production subsidiaries of major customers.
How often does the company have problems collecting on accounts receivable?
During business downturns, collections become more difficult.
What new end-use markets might the company enter in the next few years?
Many machine shops depend highly on a single end-use industry.
What new equipment does the company plan to purchase to add advanced machining capabilities?
Some super-hard metals can be machined only with advanced technology.
What types of computer technology does the company use in the design process?
Machine shops have access to new types of computer technology that allow them to work more closely with
customers to create precise parts at lower cost, and more quickly using virtual digital images of products for
approval before materials are machined.
Financial Information
COMPANY BENCHMARK TRENDS
The quick ratio, also known as the acid test ratio, measures a company's ability to meet short-term obligations
with liquid assets. The higher the ratio, the better; a number below 1 signals financial distress. Use the quick ratio
to determine if companies in an industry are typically able to pay off their current liabilities.
Financial industry data provided by MicroBilt Corporation collected from 32 different data sources and represents financial performance of over
4.5 million privately held businesses and detailed industry financial benchmarks of companies in over 900 industries (SIC and NAICS). More
data available at www.microbilt.com.
The ratio of current liabilities to net worth, also called current liabilities to equity, indicates the amount due
creditors within a year as a percentage of stockholders' equity in a company. A high ratio (above 80 percent) can
indicate trouble.
Financial industry data provided by MicroBilt Corporation collected from 32 different data sources and represents financial performance of over
4.5 million privately held businesses and detailed industry financial benchmarks of companies in over 900 industries (SIC and NAICS). More
data available at www.microbilt.com.
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Financial Ratios
Financial industry data provided by MicroBilt Corporation collected from 32 different data sources and represents financial performance of over
4.5 million privately held businesses and detailed industry financial benchmarks of companies in over 900 industries (SIC and NAICS). More
data available at www.microbilt.com.
VALUATION MULTIPLES
Machine Shops
Acquisition multiples below are calculated medians using at least three US private industry transactions completed
between 1/2007 and 10/2017 and are based on middle-market transactions where the market value of invested
capital (the selling price) was less than $1B. Data updated annually. Last updated: December 2017.
MVIC (Market Value of Invested Capital) = Also known as the selling price, the MVIC is the total consideration
paid to the seller and includes any cash, notes and/or securities that were used as a form of payment plus any
interest-bearing liabilities assumed by the buyer.
Net Sales = Annual Gross Sales, net of returns and discounts allowed, if any.
Gross Profit = Net Sales - Cost of Goods Sold
EBIT = Operating Profit
EBITDA = Operating Profit + Noncash Charges
SOURCE: Pratt's Stats, 2017 (Portland, OR: Business Valuation Resources, LLC). Used with permission. Pratt's Stats is available at
https://www.bvresources.com/prattsstats
Industry Websites
Association for Manufacturing Technology
Industry news. Good industry links.
N C - numerical control