Pacione, Michael - Population Geography Progress and Prospect (2013)
Pacione, Michael - Population Geography Progress and Prospect (2013)
Pacione, Michael - Population Geography Progress and Prospect (2013)
Population
Geography:
Progress &
Prospect
Edited by
Michael Pacione
Routledge Revivals
P op u lation G eography:
P rogress and P rosp ect
E d ite d by
Michael Pacione
¡3 Routledge
^ ft m ,/ Taylor &Francis Group
First pub lish ed in 1986
by C room H elm
R out ledge is an im print o f the T aylor & Francis Group, an inform a business
All rig hts reserved. N o part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, m echanical, or o th e r means, now
k no w n or hereafter invented, inclu ding pho to cop yin g and recording, or in any
inform ation storage or retrieval system, w ith o u t perm ission in w ritin g from the
publishers.
P u b l i s h e r ’s N o t e
T h e p ub lishe r has g on e to g reat le n g th s to ensure the q u ality o f this rep rin t b u t
points o u t th at some im perfections in the original copies may be apparent.
Disclaimer
T h e pu blish er has m ade every effort to trace c o p y rig h t holders and welcomes
correspondence from those they have been unable to contact.
V
CROOM HELM
London • Sydney • Dover, New Hampshire
© 1 9 8 6 Michael Pacione
Croom Helm Ltd, Provident House, Burrell Row,
Beckenham, Kent BR3 1AT
Croom Helm Australia Pty Ltd, Suite 4, 6th Floor,
64-76 Kippax Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010, Australia
List of T ab les
List o f F ig u re s
P reface
INTRODUCTION
8. COUNTERURBANISATION
A .J . F ield in g
9. MIGRATION AND INTRA-URBAN MOBILITY 257
M. C adw allad er
Ind ex 318
T A B L E S AND F IG U R E S
Tables
F igures
Michael Pacione
U niv ersity o f S tra th c ly d e
Glasgow
T his page intentionally left blank
IN T R O D U C TIO N
2
IN T R O D U C T IO N
4
IN T R O D U C T IO N
6
IN T R O D U C T I O N
7
IN T R O D U C T IO N
8
IN T R O D U C T IO N
9
IN T R O D U C T IO N
10
IN T R O D U C T IO N
11
INTRODUCTION
12
C h ap ter One
R. I. Woods
DEFINITIONS
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATIO N GEOGRAPHY
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T HEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
Purpose
C onsideration of p u rp o se not only r e tu r n s u s to definitional
issu e s in tro d u c e d ab o v e, b u t it also makes u s aw are of th e
d iffe re n c es in levels of u n d e rs ta n d in g th a t a re b e in g so u g h t.
For exam ple, th e re is a c le a r d istin c tio n betw een s tu d ie s th a t
seek to model o r fo re c a st m igration flows u sin g a black box
tech n iq u e an d th o se th a t attem pt an in te rp re ta tio n o f human
b eh av io u r an d decision m aking w ith r e s p e c t to m obility. T he
form er u sed th e o ry in a m odelling se n se ; th e y a re concerned
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T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
S pecific to
General population geography
purpose
validation
Theory levels ; micro
middle range
grand
empiricism
positivism
M ethodology behaviouralism
humanism
structuralism
Validation
How a re th e o rie s to be a sse sse d ? Can th e y be p ro v e d o r
merely tem porarily accep ted while ev id en ce fo r conclusive
rejection is lacking? T h ese a re im p o rtan t q u e stio n s which
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
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T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
Levels: M icro-theory
The m atter of p u rp o se also lead u s on to c o n sid er th e levels
at which th e o rie s can be c o n s tru c te d . M erton (1967, 39) has
d istin g u ish e d th re e d istin c t c a te g o rie s which he labels micro
th e o ry , middle ra n g e th e o ry an d g ra n d th e o ry . Each of th e se
levels re la te s to a p a rtic u la r way of c o n s tru c tin g know ledge.
For exam ple, an d to ov ersim p lify , m icro -th eory deals w ith th e
b eh av io u r of th e e sse n tia l b u ild in g blo ck s o f a society o r
economy in th e ir in d iv id u al form s. H ere one se ek s to u n d e r
sta n d th e actions of in d iv id u al p e rs o n s , o r families o r h o u se
holds, how th e y th in k , p erc e iv e th e ir re la tiv e p o sitio n s, act
to change an d re a c t to th e ir circ u m sta n c es. Middle ra n g e
th eo ries a re concern ed w ith th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of a g g re g a te s ,
g ro u p s of people d efin ed in s p a tia l, o ccu p atio n al, e th n ic e tc
cate g o rie s. T his form of th e o ry d eals ex p licitly with d e p e n
den t and in d e p en d e n t v a ria b le s , w ith th e m u ltiv ariate a sso c i
ation betw een a num ber of th e la tte r an d one of th e form er.
G rand th e o ry is r a th e r more d ifficu lt to d efine p re c is e ly , b u t
its sp h e re is ty p ified by lo n g -term so cial, economic and
dem ographic ch a n g e . For population g e o g ra p h e rs dem ographic
tra n sitio n th e o ry p ro v id e s p e rh a p s th e most obvious exam ples
(see S k in n e r, 1985, fo r a g e n e ra l d isc u s s io n ).
In te re s t in m icro-scale th e o ry am ongst population geo
g ra p h e rs has re la te d mainly to th e ir co n c e rn w ith m igration
stu d ie s , th e ir d e sire not only to d e sc rib e th e c h a ra c te ris tic s
of m ig ra n ts, o rig in s , d e stin a tio n s an d flow s, b u t also to
u n d e rs ta n d how an d why in d iv id u a ls decide to move (W hite,
1981). B ut th e se id e a s may also b e a p p ro p ria te w hen dealing
with o th e r dem ographic e v e n ts (w hen an d whom to m a rry ,
how many ch ild re n to have and w hen, w h e th er to get
d iv o rc e d ). Let u s co n sid e r th e case of m arriag e , a r a th e r
n eg lected a rea of population g eo g ra p h y .
C ro ss-c u ltu ra l d efin itio n s of m arriage e n c o u n te r c e rta in
problem s for th e significance and m eaning of m arriage v a rie s
in im portant re s p e c ts betw een so cieties. T he most im portant
asp ect re la te s to th e legal r ig h ts of c h ild re n b o rn to p a re n ts
who a re m arried . M arriage th u s becom es an in s titu tio n which
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEO GR A PHY
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T H E O R Y AND M E T H O D O L O G Y IN P O P U L A T I O N G E O G R A P H Y
L evels: M id d le -ra n g e T h eo ry
It h a s a lre a d y b een n o te d th a t m id d le -ra n g e th e o ry te n d s to
deal in a g g r e g a te s , w ith th e c h a r a c te r is tic s of g ro u p s o f
people v a rio u sly com bined. R ic h a rd A E a s te rlin 's (1969, 1971,
1978; E a s te rlin , Poliak a n d W achter, 1980) atte m p t to reco n cile
economic a n d sociological th e o rie s of f e r tility in to one com
po site th e o ry p ro v id e s an in te r e s tin g illu s tr a tio n of w hat may
be a tte m p te d w ith th is lev el of c o n c e p tu a lisa tio n . E a ste rlin
draw s from econom ics th e n o tio n th a t th e n u m b e r o f c h ild re n
b o rn may be a m a tte r o f p a r e n ts b a la n c in g c o s ts a n d r e t u r n s ;
th a t w hen th e s u p p ly of c h ild re n e x c e e d s th e dem and th e n
th e u se of m eans to re d u c e th e n u m b er of ad d itio n a l u n w a n te d
b ir th s will be a ffe c te d b y th e c o s ts of family lim itatio n . T he
su p p ly of c h ild re n is ta k e n to b e b io logically d e te rm in e d , b u t
b e c a u se E a ste rlin (1978) mainly d e a ls w ith s u rv iv in g c h ild re n
h is form ulation is a ffe c te d b y c h a n g e s in in fa n t a n d child
m o rtality . T h e dem and fo r c h ild re n will b e re la te d to social
norm s (c h ild re n h a v in g a v alu e fo r t h e i r own s a k e ) , b u t also
th e ris in g c o s ts of r e a r in g ’h ig h q u a lity f c h ild re n (p ro lo n g e d
ed u catio n e tc ) an d th e ir d im in ish in g v a lu e a s c o n tr ib u to rs to
th e family econom y. E a ste rlin a r g u e s th a t in p re -m o d e rn
so cieties th e r e will b e a h ig h dem and fo r c h ild re n a n d th a t it
will ex ceed s u p p ly , b u t th a t w ith m o d ernisation su p p ly will
ris e an d dem and will fa ll. E v en tu ally su p p ly will meet dem and
as e ffe c tiv e m eans o f b i r t h c o n tro l b o th becom e c h e a p e r and
a re u s e d to avoid u n w a n te d b i r t h s . E a ste rlin (1971) u s e d a
sim ilar th e o re tic a l fram ew ork to ta c k le th e q u e s tio n , does
hum an fe r tility a d ju s t to th e e n v iro n m en t? H ere th e e n v iro n
ment is d iv id e d in to th r e e : th e f r o n tie r , s e ttle d r u r a l com
m unities a n d u rb a n com m unities. T h e p re d ic tio n is th a t f e r
tility will b e h ig h e s t on th e f r o n tie r w h ere th e dem and for
c h ild re n a s a so u rc e of a d d itio n a l la b o u r will b e h ig h e s t and
th e m eans of a ffe c tin g fe rtility le a s t a c c e s s ib le , w h ilst in th e
u rb a n a re a s fe r tility will be a t i t s low est fo r th e r e c h ild re n
will not b e in s u c h dem and a n d m eans of b ir th c o n tro l a re
lik ely to b e more a v a ila b le . T h e s e ttle d r u r a l com m unities a re
th o u g h t to o ccu p y an in te rm e d ia te p o sitio n along th e con
tin u u m . B roadly s p e a k in g , E a ste rlin fin d s th a t h is p re d ic tio n s
a re b o rn e o u t in n in e te e n th - c e n tu r y m id -w est A m erica.
T h e re a re two im p o rta n t p o in ts h e r e . F ir s t, E a ste rlin
draw s from an e x is tin g , well e s ta b lis h e d th e o re tic a l fram ew ork
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T HEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
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T HEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
1 Empiricism
Both dem ography and population g eo g rap h y have been domi
nated by m ethodology th a t is im plicitly em pirical. Much a tte n
tion has been given to th e d e sc rip tio n of p a tte r n , estim ation,
modelling an d fo re c a stin g , b u t re la tiv e ly le ss to in te rp re ta tio n
o r ex p lan atio n . S ta tistic a l d em o g rap h ers h ave developed effec
tiv e estim ation p ro c e d u re s b ased on in a d e q u a te c e n su s o r v ital
d ata w hilst population g e o g ra p h e rs have made a sig n ific an t
co n trib u tio n to th e developm ent of m ulti-regional dem ographic
acco u n tin g system s (see Woods an d R ees, 1986). Both re q u ire
the c o n stru c tio n of formal m athem atical th e o rie s , b u t n e ith e r
is immediately co n cern ed w ith th e ex p lan ation of dem ographic
e v e n ts. G eo g rap h ers have also developed so p h istica te d te c h
niq u es fo r th e h an d lin g of sp atially o rg a n ised population d ata
and especially th e ir u se in autom ated c a rto g ra p h y .
Upon th is b a sis of m apping an d p lo ttin g , c o u n tin g and
d esc rib in g r e s ts a complex web of re s e a rc h th a t employ one
o r a num ber of o th e r m ethodologies.
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T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
2 Positivism
When q u e stio n s of a cau sal n a tu re a re a d d re s s e d th e n some
form of th e p o sitiv ist m ethodology is u su ally en g a g e d . Posi
tivism c o v ers a num ber of v a ria n ts on th e same them e; b u t
sup p o sed ly tr u e p ro p o sitio n s a re f ir s t s ta te d ex p licitly and
th e n su b jected to close s c ru tin y o r te s tin g . A lthough the
shortcom ings of th is ap p ro ach a re now rec o g n ised (some w ere
mentioned above) th e a sp ira tio n s o f positivism ap p lied to th e
human sciences a re laudable y e t bey o n d fu ll rea lisa tio n . In
th e stu d y of population th is m ethodology h a s b e en p u t to
good effect especially in th o se circu m stan ces th a t len d them
selves to causal modelling of a m u lti-v a ria te k in d . For
exam ple, sp atial v a ria tio n s in m o rtality , fe rtility an d m igration
have been re p eated ly tre a te d in th is w ay. Let u s tak e v a ri
ations in fe rtility as o u r illu stra tio n .
F e rtility levels will be d ire c tly in flu en ced b y m arital
fe rtility , illegitim ate fe rtility an d th e p ro p o rtio n o f th e female
population m arried . Each of th e se com ponents will b e affec ted
by o th e r c u ltu ra l, economic, social, political an d dem ographic
fac to rs whose association w ith th e d e p e n d en t com ponents o f
fe rtility may be h y p o th e sise d and id e n tifie d em pirically in
specific circum stance v ia th e co -v a ria tio n of fa c to rs and
com ponents o v er sp atial u n its . Some o f th e fa c to rs in flu en cin g
m arital fe rtility have a lre a d y been s u g g e s te d above (p 25). A
su b sta n tia l num ber of e x istin g s tu d ie s follow th is line o f
argum ent with v a ry in g d e g re e s of en lig h tenm ent (T eitelbaum ,
1984; A n k er, 1978; Bagozzi and Van Loo, 1978; see also
C adw allader, 1985 on m ig ratio n ).
H ow ever, th e a tte n d a n t problem s are v e ry obvious.
F ir s t, h y p o th e sis evaluation is u sually accom plished th ro u g h
m u ltip le-reg ressio n a n a ly sis which allows th e sig n s and
stre n g th s of association to be sp ecified , b u t d e p e n d s on the
fa c to rs b ein g q u a n tifia b le . S econd, asso ciatio n s may b e u n
stab le when th e scale of an aly sis is a lte re d . T h ird , fa c to rs
are likely to be h ighly in te r-d e p e n d e n t. F o u rth , th e co
variatio n of sta tis tic a l a ttr ib u te s w hilst p ro v id in g a means of
elim inating unlikely p ro p o sitio n s does not give an o p p o rtu n ity
to tra c e many of th e more id io sy n c ra tic p ro c e sse s in v o lv ed in
th e creatio n of dem ographic b e h a v io u r an d th u s p a tte r n s .
P a tte rn an aly sis b y its e lf simply skim s th e su rfa c e o f w hat is
o bserv ab le an d m easu rab le, it does not re la te well to th o se
a sp e c ts which may be in ta n g ib le y e t o f deep sig n ifican ce.
D espite th e se in h e re n t d raw b ack s cau sal modelling h a s been
used to some effect in population s tu d ie s .
S everal forms of positivism will rem ain im p o rtan t in
population g eo g rap h y an d d em ography, b u t now th e r e is fa r
more realism about th e scope of th e m ethodology, its
red u c tio n ist n a tu re and th e p o te n tia l of a lte rn a tiv e
ap p ro ach es.
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
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T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEO GR A PHY
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T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
REFERENCES
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATIO N GEOGRAPHY
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T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATIO N GEOGRAPHY
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C h a p te r Two
J . C . D ew dney a n d D. R hind
INTRODUCTION
35
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F PO P U L A T IO N
O rigin an d Development
The U nited Kingdom h as one of th e w o rld 's lo n g est s e rie s of
te n -y e a rly (d ecennial) c e n su se s - eig h te e n in all - of which
th e f irs t was held in 1801 an d th e most re c e n t in 1981; only
1941, becau se of wartim e co n d itio n s, is m issing from th e
s e rie s . An additional 10 p e r cen t sample c e n su s was held in
1966, b u t p ro p osals fo r 'm id -term ' sam ples in 1976 an d 1986
were re je c te d on g ro u n d s of economy.
With th e p assag e o f tim e, th e B ritish ce n su s h as become
in c re a sin g ly com plex, collecting and p u b lish in g a
p ro g re ssiv e ly g re a te r volume and ra n g e of inform ation; major
chan g es have also o c c u rre d in th e o rg a n isatio n of th e ce n su s
o peration an d th e geog rap h ical b a se fo r th e collection and
publication of th e d a ta .
T he f ir s t fo u r c e n su se s (1801, 1811, 1821, 1831) r e
corded only th e n u m b ers of males and fem ales in each house
and fam ily, w ith a simple occupational breakdow n in to five
categ o ries: p e rso n s in a g r ic u ltu r e , tr a d e , m a n u fa ctu rin g ,
h a n d ic ra fts an d 'o th e r s '; d e ta ils w ere also collected on th e
num bers of h o u se s, families p e r house and w h e th e r th e
houses were v acan t o r o ccu p ied . A q u e stio n on age was ad ded
in 1821.
T he 1841 c e n su s re c o rd e d much th e same inform ation,
b u t th e re w ere im p o rtan t o rg an isatio n al c h a n g e s. T he h o u se
hold became th e basic u n it of enum eration and th e completion
of th e c e n su s form (o r 's c h e d u le ') becam e th e re sp o n sib ility
of th e head of th e h o u seh o ld , a s s is te d w here n e c e ssa ry by
th e E num erator. T he local co n d u ct of th e c en su s in E ngland
and Wales was tr a n s f e r r e d from th e P a rish O v e rse e r to th e
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B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
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B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
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B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
39
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N SU S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
40
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
41
B R I T I S H AND UNITED S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
42
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
43
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
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B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
(e) O th er Publications
An in novation of th e 1981 c e n su s was th e p rin tin g of selected
variab les many of them in p e rc e n ta g e form , in booklet se rie s
- C ounty M onitors, Ward an d Civil P a rish M onitors a n d P arlia
m entary C o n stitu en cy M onitors) A dditional inform ation on
economic a c tiv ity is available from a s e t o f Economic A ctivity
B ooklets, p u b lish ed in m icrofiche.
JnT addition to th e d a ta th em selv es, th e c e n su s offices
have p ro d u ced a much g re a te r ra n g e o f e x p la n a to ry docum en
45
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U SE S O F P O P U L A T IO N
The Small A rea S ta tistic s (S A S ). SAS have now rep la ced the
tab les in th e p u b lish e d volum es as th e main re so u rc e fo r
re s e a rc h on th e B ritish p o p u latio n . T h e ir developm ent b eg an
in 1961 w hen, fo r th e f ir s t tim e, d a ta w ere made available fo r
EDs in selected a re a s , an d co n tin u ed in 1966, when d a ta w ere
pro v id ed fo r all EDs. The su p p ly of SAS was sy stem atised in
1971 b y th e ir p ro v isio n in a s ta n d a rd form at of 1571 v aria b les
a rra n g e d in 28 ta b le s. In 1981 th e y co n sisted of some 4300
v ariab les (5000 in S cotland) a rra n g e d in 52 ta b le s , o rg a n ise d
into 10 p a g e s. T he la y o u ts for 1971 and 1981 may be ob tain ed
from OPCS an d have been re p ro d u c e d b y Rhind (1983) and
Dewdney (1981, 1985).
SAS a re available a s p rin te d copies (th e 'p a g e s' re fe rre d
to a b o v e ), as m icrofiche, on microfilm o r on m agnetic ta p e for
com puter m anipulation, which is now th e form most commonly
u se d . Each v ariab le h a s its u n iq u e cell n u m b er. Data can be
e x tra c te d an d m anipulated by re fe re n c e to th e se cell n u m b ers,
which can be u se d to c o n stru c t 'd e riv e d v a ria b le s '. As an
exam ple, cell 50 is 'to ta l r e s id e n ts ' an d cell 112 is 'm arried
female re s id e n ts aged 30-34'. T h u s th e la tte r can be
e x p re s s e d as a p e rc e n ta g e of th e form er by th e specification
x 100. SAS a re available fo r E num eration D is tric ts , W ards,
Civil P a ris h e s , Postcode s e c to rs (S cotland o n ly ). Local
A uthority A reas an d P arliam en tary C o n stitu e n c es. Space does
not perm it a d esc rip tio n of th e c o n te n ts of th e SAS ta b le s:
suffice it to say th a t th e y would a p p e a r to contain v irtu a lly
e v e ry m eaningful classificatio n and c ro ssta b u la tio n which it is
possib le to p ro d u ce from th e raw d ata re c o rd e d on th e ce n su s
sch ed u les.
With th e a p p earan ce of SAS in a form su ita b le fo r man
ipulation b y co m p u ter, much a tte n tio n h a s been d ev o ted to
th e p re p a ra tio n of s ta tis tic a l p a c k a g e s fo r u se w ith th e se
d a ta . The most sig n ifican t of th e s e is SASPAC, p ro d u c ed
specifically fo r th e 1981 SAS b y th e U n iv ersities of Durham
and E d in b u rg h u n d e r c o n tra c t to th e Local A u th o ritie s
Management S erv ices an d C om puter Committee (LAMSAC).
SASPAC can be ru n on a v a rie ty o f d iffe re n t co m p u ters,
p ro d u c e s s tra ig h tfo rw a rd an a ly se s of th e d a ta an d p r e p a re s
d ata fo r in p u t to more complex s ta tis tic a l and m apping p a c k
a g e s. Among th e l a tte r , one of th e most widely u se d is
GIMMS, p ro d u ced b y Gimms L td . of E d in b u rg h . F u rth e r
developm ent along th e se lin es seems likely b e fo re th e n e x t
B ritish c e n s u s , sch ed u led fo r A pril 1991.
46
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T I O N
47
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F PO P U L A T IO N
48
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
49
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S OF P O P U L A T IO N
50
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
3 0 4 ______ | 11 o 1
303 m i -i a 3 i «» 11 l a o i 8 0 2
(IS) •3 *2 1
!— ©
200
ED23 ED28
307 509
408
n 407
n 60 6
A i i l a u a * C o . , Ala .
(0 0 1 ) (0 1 )
51
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T I O N
52
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
53
B R I T I S H AND U NITED S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
54
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O PU L A T IO N
C onfidentiality
Since 1910, it h as b een th e p ra c tic e th a t a P re sid en tial
proclam ation is given of co n fid en tiality of C e n su s inform ation.
The C a rte r proclam ation of 1979, fo r in s ta n c e , in clu d e d :
A ccuracy
US C en su ses have c h a ra c te ristic a lly u n d e rc o u n te d th e p o p u
lation th o u g h in g e n e ra l th e d iscrep an cy h as b een dim inishing
in size from 3.3% in 1950 to 2.5% in 1970. H ow ever, th is
u n d e rc o u n t v a rie s g re a tly betw een social an d eth n ic g ro u p s
and in d iffe re n t a re a s of th e co u n try - in p a r tic u la r, th e
e r r o r is g re a te r in re g a rd to H ispanics th a n fo r most o th e r
g ro u p s. C learly all th is has major significance for
apportionm ent at S tate level b u t th e n eed fo r ad justm ent to
obviate th e u n d e rc o u n t is p re s e n t ev en down to th e 39,000
su b -S ta te u n its which gain from r e v e n u e -s h a rin g program m es
b ased on population n u m b e rs. R efining th e ac cu racy can of
co u rse be achieved b y v a rio u s su p p le m e n tary , p o s t-c e n s u s
55
B R I T I S H AND U NITED S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
56
B R IT IS H AND UNITED ST A T E S CENSUSES O F POPULATIO N
REFERENCES
57
C h a p te r T h ree
J . Coward
GENERAL ISSUES
08
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
59
F E RT IL IT Y P A TT E RN S IN THE MODERN WORLD
60
F E R T IL IT Y PA TT E R N S IN T HE MODERN WORLD
Two g e n e ra l fe a tu r e s c h a r a c te r is e c o n te m p o ra ry fe rtility p a t
te r n s th ro u g h o u t th e w orld: th e c o n sid e ra b le d e g re e o f v a r i
atio n an d wide ra n g e o f v a ria b le s th a t in flu e n c e su c h v a r i
a tio n s. Each o f th e s e th em es a re exam ined in th is se c tio n .
While th e c o n sid e ra b le d iffe re n c e s in fe rtility b etw een th o se
c o u n trie s of th e N o rth e rn a n d S o u th e rn b lo cs (a s d e fin e d by
th e B ra n d t R e p o rt) a re o f q u ite lo n g s ta n d in g , more re c e n t
fe rtility d e c lin e s in some c o u n trie s o f th e S o uth also e n s u re
th a t th e r e is now a c o n sid e ra b le r a n g e of v a ria tio n w ith in th is
bloc. T h u s while fe r tility rem ain s h ig h in some re g io n s , most
o f A frica fo r ex am p le, more m o d erate le v e ls h a v e now b een
a tta in e d in much of S o u th E ast A sia, Mid A m erica a n d T ro p i
cal S o u th A m erica (T ab le 3 .1 ) . H ow ever, o th e r a re a s h av e
a tta in e d m uch low er fe r tility o v e r th e la st th r e e d e c a d e s , as
seen in th e c a se s o f T em p e ra te S o u th A m erica, E ast A sia and
th e C a rib b e a n (T ab le 3 .1 ) . M o reo v er, th e d iffe re n c e s b etw een
in d iv id u a l c o u n trie s a re p a r tic u la r ly la rg e : in K en y a, for
exam ple, c u r r e n tly d isp la y in g th e h ig h e s t lev el of f e r tility ,
a v e ra g e fe r tility is 8 c h ild re n p e r woman (on th e b a s is of
c u r r e n t age sp ecific r a t e s ) , while in s u c h c o u n trie s a s C u b a ,
B a rb a d o s, S in g ap o re a n d Hong K ong th e T o tal F e rtility R ate
is now 2 o r le s s .
A v a r ie ty o f a p p ro a c h e s can b e u tilise d in a tte m p tin g to
ex p lain th e s e v a r ia tio n s . In g e n e ra l te rm s it c e rta in ly a p p e a rs
th a t th e re la tiv e ly low fe r tility of some c o u n trie s o f th e S o u th
is a p ro d u c t o f v a rio u s fa c e ts o f m o d ern isatio n a n d socio
economic d ev elo p m en t, a s s o c ia te d w ith c h a n g in g p o p u latio n
com position a n d a ttitu d e s to family fo rm ation c o n s is te n t w ith
low f e r tility . In d e e d , i t is te m p tin g to re ly on th e m odern
isatio n fram ew ork b a s e d on th e d em o g rap h ic h is to ry of th e
c u r r e n t W estern ised d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s a n d assum e th a t
c o n tin u e d m o d ern isatio n will in t u r n lead to low le v e ls of
fe r tility in th e c o u n trie s o f th e S o u th . While it may a p p e a r
u n re a lis tic to e x p e c t a re p lic a tio n o f d em o g rap h ic c o n d itio n s
am ongst s u c h a r a n g e o f c o u n trie s d iffe rin g in te rm s of geo
g ra p h ic a n d p o p u latio n s iz e , p o litical o r ie n ta tio n , social s t r u c
tu r e a n d d em o g rap h ic h is to r y it h a s b e e n a rg u e d th a t many
p a ra lle ls can be fo u n d (v a n De Walle a n d K nodel, 1980).
H ow ever, u s in g s u c h a fram ew ork a s m o d ern isatio n d o es ra ise
q u e s tio n s c o n c e rn in g w h e th e r g e n e ra l p a tte r n s can be d is
c e rn e d a c ro s s th e p r e s e n t d e v e lo p in g c o u n trie s a n d , if so,
th e sp ecific v a ria b le s in v o lv e d . A n aly sis of World F e rtility
S u rv e y d a ta on d iffe re n tia l f e r tility in d ic a te s th a t c e rta in
k ey fa c to rs can b e id e n tifie d (L ig h tb o u rn e e t al. 1982). From
a s tu d y o f 29 d e v e lo p in g c o u n trie s it was fo u n d th a t fe rtility
62
T ab le 3 . 1 : F e r t i l i t y R a te s by R egion f o r t h e E a r l y 1 9 8 0 's
T o tal T o tal
Per c a p it a
R egion p o p u la tio n B i r t h R ate F e rtility
GNP (US $)
(m illio n s) R ate
FERTILITY
N o rth A f r i c a 124 41 5 .9 1240
West A f r i c a 161 49 6 .8 660
East A fric a 150 47 6 .6 330
M iddle A f r i c a 60 45 6 .2 420
S o u th e r n A f r i c a 36 36 5 .2 2490
S.W. A sia 110 37 5 .5 4110
PATTERNS
M iddle S outh A s ia 1036 37 5 .3 260
S .E . A sia 393 33 4 .5 720
E. A s ia 1243 20 2 .6 1360
M id dle America 102 34 4 .9 1970
C a rib b e a n 31 26 3 .4 -
T r o p i c a l S o u th America
IN THE MODERN
220 32 4 .3 2120
T em perate So uth America 44 24 2 .7 2440
N. America 262 15 1 .8 13000
N o rth & West Europe 236 12 1.7 11500
E a s t e r n & S o u th e r n Europe 253 15 2 .0 52 70 1
USSR 274 20 2 .5 5940
O c ean ia 24 21 2 .5 8700
^ S o u th e rn Europe o n l y .
WORLD
S o u rc e : 1984 World P o p u l a t i o n D ata S h e e t ( P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e B u re a u ).
<r.
o-*
F ERTILITY PA TT E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
64
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
65
FERTILITY
T a b le 3 . 2 : R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n t h e T o t a l F e r t i l i t y R ate and v a r i o u s
d em o grap hic and s o c i o - e c o n o m ic v a r i a b l e s
V a ria b le Zero O rd er C o r r e l a t i o n / P a r t i a l C o r r e l a t i o n
(an d h y p o t h e s i s e d
PATTERNS
r e l a ti o n s h ip w ith A ll D e v elo p in g A ll D ev elo p in g
fe rtility ) C o u n tries C o u n tries C o u n tries C o u n tries
VI GNP* (-) -0 .2 4 0 .0 4 -0 .1 0 0 .0 1
V2 Urban P o p u l a t i o n (-) -0 .6 4 -0 .4 7 0 .03 0 .0 3
V3 L ab ou r f o r c e i n a g r i c u l t u r e (+) 0 .7 3 0 .5 7 0 .1 5 0 .0 8
IN THE MODERN
V4 In fan t m o rtality (+) 0 .8 2 0 .7 2 0 .38 0 .3 4
V5 E arly m arriage (+) 0 .6 9 0 .5 9 -0 .1 4 -0 .1 5
V6 Females e c o n o m i c a ll y a c t i v e ( - ) -0 .1 3 0 .0 3 -0 .2 7 -0 .2 0
V7 Female l i t e r a c y (-) -0 .8 7 -0 .7 7 -0 .2 8 -0 .3 1
V8 Female S ec o n d ary s c h o o l (-) -0 .7 9 -0 .6 7 -0 .1 3 -0 .2 0
* L ogarithm ic tr a n s fo r m a tio n
V2 % o f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g i n a r e a s term ed u r b a n by t h a t c o u n t r y ;
WORLD
V3 % o f l a b o u r f o r c e engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r e ; V4 i n f a n t d e a t h s p e r 1000
b i r t h s ; V5 % fe m a le s aged 15-19 i n u n i o n ; V6 fe m a le s 1 5-6 4 , % e c o n o m i c a ll y
a c t i v e ; V7 % a d u l t s l i t e r a t e ; V8 2 12-17 e n r o l l e d i n S e co n d ary S c h o o l.
P a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n s r e f e r t o s e v e n t h o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n f e r t i l i t y
an d a s p e c i f i e d v a r i a b l e c o n t r o l l i n g f o r t h e r e m a in i n g s e v e n v a r i a b l e s .
D ata s o u r c e : 1984 w o rld p o p u l a t i o n d a t a s h e e t ; f e r t i l i t y and t h e s t a t u s o f
women; 1982 w o r l d ' s c h i l d r e n d a t a s h e e t . A l l from t h e P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e
B u reau.
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
The o th e r fe a tu re of in te r e s t c o n c e rn in g fe rtility p a t
te r n s th a t will be exam ined is th a t of th e v a ry in g p erce p tio n s
of g o vernm ents to w ard s fe rtility . T o d ay , th e p o ten tia l for
governm ents to influ en ce fe rtility p a tte r n s is p a rtic u la rly
g re a t th ro u g h th e influ en ce of th e mass m edia, financial and
socio-economic in c e n tiv e s an d d isin c e n tiv e s an d th e provision
of family p la n n in g se rv ic e s. T h u s th e re c e n t population policy
in China d ire c te d tow ard s th e estab lish m ent of th e one child
family (Yan Tien 1983, H uang 1982) p ro v id es classic illu s
tra tio n s of how quickly fe rtility can decline in c e rta in circum
stan ces a s well as th e loss o f in d iv id u al freedom co n cern in g
some of th e b asic choices inv o lv ed in family form ation. V ari
ations in gov ern m en ts' p ercep tio n of fe rtility th ro u g h o u t th e
world a re disp lay ed in Table 3.3 an d s e v e ra l fe a tu re s a re of
in te r e s t. F irs tly , a larg e nu m b er o f c o u n trie s o u tsid e th e
N orth p erceiv e fe rtility levels as b ein g too h ig h - th e se
include all th e c o u n trie s w ith p a rtic u la rly larg e populations as
well as many of th e sm aller ones too. In term s of population
size, 89 p e r cent o f th e population of Asia re sid e in co u n trie s
p e rc e iv in g fe rtility as too h ig h , while th e c o rre sp o n d in g p ro
p o rtio n s for A frica an d Latin America a re 51 and 30 p e r
(T able 3 .3 ) . Many c o u n trie s p erceiv e fe rtility levels a s s a tis
facto ry : most developed c o u n trie s fall into th is ca te g o ry b u t
it also in clu d es many of th e c o u n trie s an d much of th e p o p u
lation of A frica and Latin America. T he p re c ise reaso n s
involved in th e se p e rc e p tio n s are not fully know n, alth o u g h it
ap p e a rs th a t many of th e se c o u n trie s a re not a v e rse to r e
ductions in fe rtility an d in most cases some pro v isio n for
family p lan n in g se rv ic e s is av ailab le. Finally num erous
governm ents th ro u g h o u t th e world p e rc e iv e fe rtility as too low
and hence may make c o n certed e ffo rts to in c re a se th e b irth
ra te (T able 3 .3 ) . As most a tte n tio n is norm ally given to
co u n trie s a ttem p tin g to low er fe rtility , some c h a ra c te ris tic s of
th is final g ro u p will be a s s e s s e d . T hose c o u n trie s p erc e iv in g
fe rtility as too low a re liste d in Table 3.3 and alth o u g h bein g
dom inated by many of th e E uropean c o u n trie s , also in clu d es
exam ples from A frica, Asia and Latin Am erica. T he situ atio n
in some of th e E uropean c o u n trie s is p e rh a p s most readily
u n d e rsta n d a b le given th e re c e n t fe rtility declines to below
replacem ent levels in many o f th e se c o u n trie s and th e conse
q u e n t co n cern s o v er population d eclin e, sh rin k in g lab o u r
force and ag ein g p o p u la tio n s. F rance is an in te re s tin g
example becau se th e n a tu re an d im plications of fe rtility tre n d s
have b een a sou rce of co n cern fo r much of th is c e n tu ry . In
the more re c e n t p erio d policy h a s been d ire c te d tow ard
s tre n g th e n in g family policy p rovision w hilst attem p tin g not to
ap p e a r explicitly p ro -n a ta lis t (H uss 1980). A sim ilar situ atio n
c u rre n tly app lies in West Germany (Kollman and C astell
R udenhausen 1982). In some E astern E uropean c o u n trie s th e
governm ents have o ffered p a rtic u la rly a ttra c tiv e m aternity
b en efits fo r women w orking o u tsid e th e home in an attem pt to
67
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
68
T able 3 . 3 : Government p e r c e p t i o n s o f f e r t i l i t y l e v e l by a r e a , number o f
c o u n t r i e s and p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n
Government P e r c e p t i o n o f F e r t i l i t y L ev el
FERTILITY
Number o f C o u n t r i e s P ercentage of P o p u la tio n
PATTERNS
A frica 26 19 6 51 45 4
A sia 17 18 4 89 10 1
L a t i n America 15 16 3 30 65 5
O c e a n ia 4 3 0 22 78 0
E u ro p e , USSR &
N o r th America 0 20 10 0 61 39
IN THE
S o u r c e : 1984 World P o p u l a t i o n D a ta S h e e t ( P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e B ureau)
* The c o u n t r i e s c o n c e r n e d a r e a s f o l l o w s : - F r a n c e , Luxembourg, FRG, GDR,
MODERN
Sweden, H un gary , Romania, B u l g a r i a , C y p ru s , G r e e c e , USSR, I s r a e l , L a o s ,
Kampuchia, L i b y a , Chad, C.A .R, Congo, Gabon, E q u a t o r i a l G u in e a , I v o r y
C o a s t , G u in e a , U rag u a y , C h i l e , B o l i v i a .
WORLD
CO
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
70
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
FERTILITY
to
PATTERNS
DURATION OF MARRIAGE : 20 - 24 YEARS
IN THE MODERN
WORLD
M arrlag* C o h o rt 1 9 2 6 -3 1
Fig. 3.1 R egional v a ria tio n s in family size in E ngland and Wales: 1951, 1961 and 1971.
T a b le 3 . 4 : V a r i a t i o n s i n f a m i l y s i z e by s o c i a l c l a s s i n 1951 and 1971,
FERTILITY
d u r a t i o n o f m a r r i a g e 20-24 y e a r s ( s t a n d a r d i s e d f o r age a t m a r r i a g e )
1951 1971
S o c ia l C lass
A c tu a l S tan d ard ised A ctual S tan d ard ised
PATTERNS
I 1 .7 7 1 .86 2 .1 3 2 .1 8
II 1.91 1 .98 2 .0 3 2 .0 6
Illn 1 .9 0 1.94
2 .2 6 2 .2 7
H im 2 .2 5 2 .1 7
IV 2.7 1 2 .6 9 2 .2 9 2 .2 6
IN THE MODERN
V 3 .0 2 2 .9 7 2 .5 8 2 .5 6
C o e ffic ie n t
o f v a r i a t i o n (%) 2 0 .2 1 7 .8 9 .8 8 .7
WORLD
-o
w
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
74
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
75
FERTILITY
PATTERNS
IN THE
MODERN
WORLD
F ig . 3 .2
D is tric ts w ith p a r tic u
la rly h ig h o r p a rtic u la rly
low age s ta n d a rd is e d
f e r tility , 1981.
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
77
FERTILITY
oo Table 3.5: Districts with particularly high or low age standardised fertility in 1981 by major influencing factors
All three
Single Component Double Component Components
PATTERNS
Proportions Marital Extra-marital fertility/ fertility/ married/
married fertility fertility proportions extra-marital extra-marital
married fertility fertility
IN THE
Halton Watford Leicester Slough Birmingham Burnley Blackburn
Peterborough Woking Mid-Devon Hackney Rossendale Pendle
Copeland Crawley East Hants Knowsley Ipswich
Maldon Alnwick Derby S. Pembroke
Eastleigh Wrexham Gt. Grimsby Oldham
MODERN
Gosport Anglesea Preston Rochdale
Rushmoor Radnor Newport
Redditch
Rochester
Hyndburn
WORLD
Richmondshire
Tamworth
Mid-Suffolk
Kennet
Dinefwr
Presell
Merthyr Tid.
Rhymney
Milton Keynes
Suble
Gillingham
Rhondda
B. Fertility > 10% lower than expected
Bromley Sheffield S. Lakeland
Camden Solihull Epping Forest
Hammersmith Kingswood Winchester
and Fulham Broxtowe Harrogate
Kensington Gedling
and Chelsea Newcastle U.L
Richmond Oswestry
Wandsworth
Westminster
Bath
Cambridge
Exeter
Brighton
Eastbourne
Hove
York
Three Rivers
Canterbury
Oxford
Ceredigion
-3
<£>
Bournemouth W. Derby S. Bucks
Cheltenham W. Dorset Brentwood
Blackpool Durham Welwyn Hatfield
S. Shrops Cotsvold Epsom
Beverley Relgate
Oadby Runnymede
Castle Morpeth Spelthorne
FERTILITY
Selby
Stratford U.A.
PATTERNS
IN THE
MODERN
WORLD
F E RT IL IT Y PA TT E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
80
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
61
00
FERTILITY
to
T a b le 3 . 6 : R e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw ee n a ge s t a n d a r d i s e d f e r t i l i t y and v a r i o u s
d e m o g ra p h ic and s o c i o - e c o n o m ic v a r i a b l e s , 1981
Z C o n trib u tio n to
PATTERNS
V ariab le Z ero o r d e r v a r i a t i o n ( c u m u la t iv e
(and h y p o t h e s i s e d r e l a t i o n s h i p c o rre la tio n % from s t e p w i s e
w ith f e r t i l i t y ) w ith f e r t i l i t y reg ressio n)
VI P r o p o r t i o n s m a r r i e d (+) 0 .54 29
V2 Female Unemployment (+) 0 .3 7 40
IN THE MODERN
V3 Im m ig rant P o p u l a t i o n * (+) 0 .0 1 48
V4 Female E d u c a ti o n ( - ) -0 .4 6 49
V5 P a r t i c i p a t i o n o f m a r r i e d women ( - ) -0 .1 3 50
V6 S o c i a l c l a s s e s (+) 0 .3 9 -
V7 T e n u re : owner o c c u p a t i o n ( - ) -0 .0 6 -
V8 M i g r a t i o n (+) 0 .1 0 -
R eg ressio n E q u a tio n :-
Y - 5 7 .4 + 0 .0 1 VI + 0 .1 1 V2 + 9 . 0 V3 - 0 .0 4 V4 -- 0 .0 2 V5
WORLD
* L o g arith m ic tr a n s f o r m a tio n .
VI X f e m a l e s 15-29 m a r r i e d ; V2 p r o p o r t i o n o f f e m a l e s aged 16-59 unemployed;
V3 % o f p o p u l a t i o n b o r n i n t h e New Commonwealth, P a k i s t a n and I r e l a n d ;
V4 % o f f e m a l e s w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n ; V5 % o f m a r r i e d women ag ed 16-59
e c o n o m i c a l l y a c t i v e ; V6 % o f p o p u l a t i o n w i t h h e a d s o f h o u s e h o l d i n s o c i a l
c l a s s e s IV and V; V7 % o f p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s owner o c c u p i e d ; V8 o v e r a l l n e t
m i g r a t i o n r a t e 19 71 -81 .
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
83
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
84
F E R T I L I T Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
86
T ab le 3 .7 : R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and h y p o t h e s i s e d
FERTILITY
e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s , S c o t l a n d 1981
V ariab le Z e ro O r d e r C o r r e l a t i o n s
(expected r e l a t i o n s h i p w ith
VI V2 V3 V4 V5 V6
m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y in p a re n th e s e s )
PATTERNS
VI M a rita l f e r t i l i t y 1.0 0 0 .2 3 -0 .3 4 -0 .6 9 0 .1 4 0.07
V2 R e l i g i o n (+) 1 .0 0 0 .1 9 0.0 7 -0 .4 1 -0 .6 0
V3 S o cial c la s s (-) 1 .0 0 0 .5 0 0 .2 0 -0 .5 0
V4 F em ale p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( - ) 1 .0 0 -0 .0 9 -0 .3 8
V5 O w n er-o ccu p atio n (- ) 1 .0 0 0.31
V6 Labour fo r c e in a g r i c u l t u r e 1 .0 0
IN THE
(+)
MODERN
V4: P ro p o rtio n of m a r r i e d women a g e d 1 6 -4 4 i n p a i d e m p lo y m en t.
V5: P ro p o rtio n of p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ow ner o c c u p i e d .
V6: P ro p o rtio n of m ales in a g r i c u l t u r e .
WORLD
00
-J
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
88
V. CHANGE IN FERTILITY INOICES 1971-01
V. Chon*«
FERTILITY
C D -.
E3>"
n<-
111 1»■«
PATTERNS
IN THE MODERN
DECLINE M INCR EASE IN
MARITAL FORTUITY PROPORTIONS MARRICO
10 Signifi«» « d*clii»>
WORLD
00
CO
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
90
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
T a b le 3 . 8 : V a r i a t i o n s i n f a m i l y s i z e i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d by
a r e a and r e l i g i o n , 1983. ( E v e r - m a r r i e d women ag ed 4 5 -5 9 )
Roman Non-Roman
Area C ath o lic C ath o lic
B elfast 4 .0 2 .4
B e l f a s t S uburbs 3 .7 2 .6
I n n e r Zone: F r i n g e B e l f a s t 3 .3 2 .2
I n t e r m e d i a t e Zone 5 .2 2 .7
O u ter Zone: West o f t h e Bann 5 .4 3 .2
S o u rc e : N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d F e r t i l i t y S u r v e y , 1983.
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
91
FERTILITY PA TT E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
92
FERTILITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD
93
F E RT IL IT Y PA TT E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
94
C h ap ter Four
P. H. C urson
96
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
97
M O RTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
98
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
99
M ORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
I II HIN IH M IV V I II MIN DM IV V
D IS E A S E S O F
R E S P IR A T O R Y S Y S T E M
Mole
| female
I II IHN I!IM IV V
M A LIG N A N T N E O P L A S M S D IS E A S E S OF
C IRCU LATO RY S Y ST E M
II IHN HIM IV
100
T a b le 4 . 1 : S t a n d a r d i s e d M o r t a l i t y R a t i o s by S o c i a l C l a s s , m ale s aged 15-64
y e a r s England and Wales 1921-72
S o c i a l C l a s s Groups*
MORTALITY
I II II IN III IIIM IV V R a t i o I:V
PATTERNS
1970-72 77 81 99 104 106 114 137 1.7 8
20-64 y e a r s
* I P r o f e s s io n a l o c c u p a tio n s ( e .g . la w y e rs, p h y s ic ia n s )
II M a n a g e r i a l and lo w er p r o f e s s i o n a l g r o u p s ( e . g . t e a c h e r s , n u r s e s ,
m a n a g e rs , f a r m e r s )
IN THE MODERN
I I I S k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . s e e 1IIN and IIIM )
I I I N Mon-manual s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . c l e r i c a l w o r k e r s , shop
assistan ts)
IIIM Manual s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . e n g i n e e r i n g c r a f t s m e n , m i n e r s )
IV S e m i - s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k e r s , postm an)
V U n sk ille d o ccu p atio n s ( e .g . p o r t e r s , la b o u re rs )
S o u rc e : O c c u p a t i o n a l M o r t a l i t y 1 97 0 -72 , 1978; S o c i a l T re n d s 6 , 19 75 :26 .
WORLD
M O R T A L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
Professionol technical
A d m in istrative .executive
and managerial
Clericol workers
So les workers
Transport .communication
workers
Croftsmen .production process
workers , lobourers
Se rvice , sport and
recreation workers
S T A N D A R D IS E D M O R T A L IT Y RATIO
102
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
INFANT M ORTALITY
P E R IN A T A L M O RTALITY
P ole per 0 0 0
toKJ» birit»»
■ 158-168
E 3 14 7 -15 7 147-157
S3 136-146
fc a 12 5-135 E3 »25-135
□ I M - »2.4
103
MORTALITY
104
PATTERNS
1979-81. (A verage a n n u a l r a t e s p e r 1000 l i v e b i r t h s )
IN THE MODERN
I 9 .4 5.6 3 .2 8 .8
II 10.9 6 .2 2 .9 9 .0
III 12.7 6 .9 3 .6 10.5
IV 14.9 8 .5 4.9 13.5
V 17.1 9 .7 7.1 16.8
* p e r 1000 t o t a l b i r t h s .
See f o o t n o t e t o T a b le 4 .1 f o r s o c i a l c l a s s d e f i n i t i o n s .
WORLD
S o u rc e : C a l c u l a t e d from OPCS M o n i to r s I n f a n t and P e r i n a t a l M o r t a l i t y , 1979,
1980, 1981.
M O R TA LITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
105
M O R T A L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
106
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
»930 1955 »960 1965 ¡970 1973 i960 »950 1935 t9$0 1965 W70 »975 »980
107
M O R T A L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
Major C a u se s o f D eath
F or much o f th e w o rld , th e r e c o rd in g o f c au se of d e a th
rem ains fra g m e n ta ry a n d la rg e ly u n s a tis f a c to r y . Fox (1972)
h a s d e s c rib e d some of th e p ro b le m s re la tin g to th e r e g is
tra tio n of d e a th s in th e F e d e ra l D is tric t o f M exico, an d q u e s
tio n s th e way d e a th s a re a llo cated to th e ir h a b itu a l p lace of
re s id e n c e . O nly in th e d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s is a c o n s is te n t
so u rc e of c a u se of d e a th m aterial re a d ily a v a ila b le , a n d e v en
h e re th e r e a re r e a s o n s to call in to q u e s tio n th e q u a lity an d
a c c u ra c y of many r e t u r n s . C au se o f d e a th r e g is tr a tio n is
o fte n s u b je c tiv e , a n d is in flu e n c e d b y a d v a n c e s in d ia g n o stic
m ethods a s well a s fa sh io n s in r e p o r tin g a n d v a ria tio n s in
re p o rtin g p ro c e d u r e s . O ne b a sic problem c o n c e rn s th e d if f e r
in g s ty le s of d e a th c e rtific a tio n b etw een d ev elo p e d a n d d e v e l
o p in g c o u n trie s . Some y e a r s ago a World H ealth O rg a n isa tio n
s tu d y o f u r b a n m o rtality drew a tte n tio n to th e s e v a ria tio n s ,
p o in tin g o u t th a t 39 p e r c e n t o f c a u se o f d e a th s ta te m e n ts on
d e a th c e rtific a te s in Mexico C ity may b e in c o r r e c t, com pared
D EV ELO PED C O U N T R IE S
Cerebrovoscutor
diseose* (13%)
Other circufofory
diseoses ! 147.1
Respiratory diseoses
i73%)
CardiovascuJor
diseoses (16%)
infkienzo ,pneumc«!ot
bronchitis (15%)
AccOenfj
8 »»tence (5 % )
Resprrotory tuberculosis
( 6% )
F ig . 4 .5 Major c a u s e s o f d e a th , d e v e lo p e d a n d d ev elo p in g
c o u n trie s . A bout 1980. S o u rc e : WHO E stim ate s.
108
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
109
M O R T A L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
So f a r , th is c h a p te r h a s c o n s id e re d o n ly some of th e major
social d iffe re n tia ls in m o rta lity . To a la rg e e x te n t th e s e
re fle c t v a ria tio n s in life s ty le , n u tr itio n , w ork p a t t e r n s ,
a ttitu d e s to h e a lth , a n d p e rs o n a l b e h a v io u r. G e o g ra p h e rs
h a v e , b y c o n tr a s t, p a id more a tte n tio n to m ortality d iffe r e n
tia ls b etw een d iffe re n t p la c e s . T he g e o g ra p h ic a p p ro a c h in
s tu d y in g m o rtality h a s la rg e ly b e e n to map s ta tic p a tte r n s of
m o rta lity , to d e s c rib e th e r e s u ltin g d is tr ib u tio n s a n d , in some
c a s e s , to te s t th e ir s ig n ific a n c e . W here c a u s a tiv e a n a ly s is h a s
b ee n a tte m p te d it h a s , fo r th e most p a r t , ra n g e d from e s s e n
tially su b je c tiv e v isu a l c o m p ariso n s fo r tw o o r more sp a tia l
p a tte r n s to m ore so p h is tic a te d s ta tis tic a l m ethodologies
e x te n d in g from sim ple c o rre la tio n , m ultiple c o rre la tio n and
A B C D E F G h
A Auckland E Other urban
B Wellington North Island
I20r C ChristchurchF Other urban
0 Dunedin South Islonu
G Non-urban
North island
H Non-urban
110 . m South Island
100
90
80
35 £ VI
Ql
—
III
jrt Diseo
-a
Bronchi
Other
€ 1
3 j?
110
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
111
M O RTA LITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
112
MORTALITY
PATTERNS
IN THE MODERN
F ig . 4.7 Life e x p e c ta n cy a t b ir th about 1980. Source: D ata from Population R eference B u re a u , World
WORLD
Population D ata S h e e t, 1984.
113
V a
i Less than 12
E 3 1 2 -2 5
(US 2 6 -5 1
H 5 2 -1 0 3
[¡HI] K>4 - 2 0 7
91 More ¡her 28C
115
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
116
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
117
M ORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
118
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
119
M ORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
120
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
121
M O R T A L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
DIASTOLIC BLOOD
PRESSU RE
CD low
Med urn
High
H Non-Resider rial Uses
C H O LE S T E R O L
□ Low
P 3 M ediu m
L J High
Hi Non-R««Jert<af L/scs
122
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
123
MO RTA LITY PA TTERN 'S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
THE FUTURE
REFERENCES
125
MORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
126
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
127
M ORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
128
M O R TA LITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
129
M ORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
130
MORTALITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD
131
C h ap ter Five
I. Thomas
INTRODUCTION
132
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
T ab le 5 . 1 : I n q u i r i e s i n t o P o p u l a t i o n I n i t i a t e d by t h e
Governments o f D ev elop ed N a t i o n s , 1961-72
Israel (1962)
Canada (1967)
Israel (1968)
G reece (1968)
Japan (1969)
A u stralia (1970)
B ritain (1970)
F ran ce (1970)
Hungary (1970)
U n ite d S t a t e s (1970)
A rg en tin a (1971)
B ritain (1971)
B u lg aria (1971)
C zechoslovakia (1971)
F ra n c e (1971)
Romania (1971)
N eth erlan d s (1972)
133
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
134
Table 5 . 2 : Changes I n th e Commitment t o Family P la n n in g Programmes among
I.ow and Middle Income N a t i o n s , 1972-1982
GOVERNMENT
D. Weak 3 5 6 11 1 2
E. V. Weak 25 21 21 15 6 3
POPULATION
-1 1 1 0
-2 0 1(f) 0
FP C a n c e lle d 2(g) 1(h) l(i)
POLICIES
Source: d e r i v e d from World Bank, 1984.
135
136
GOVERNMENT
POPULATION
POLICIES
Fig. 5.1 World map of governm ent family p la n n in g an d population red u ctio n program m es, 1978.
Source: D. Nortman & E . H o f s ta t te r , Population a n d family p la n n in g program m es: A
compendium of data th r o u g h 1978. 10th Edition New York: Population Council, 1980.
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
137
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
138
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
DATA / \
IMPLEMENTATION L e g isla tio n
COLLECTION Resource a llo c a tio n
Censuses Programme
R e g istra tio n P ro je c ts
Surveys
Other sources
\
PROBLEM POLICY
IDENTIFICATION O bjectives
S tra te g ie s
T argets
THEORY '
R elationships
Causes and Consequences
"Knowing which le v e rs to p u ll"
139
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
a . Methods o f c o n t r a c e p t i o n e v e r - u s e d by women w i t h a
l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h , 19 67 /8 t o 1975. ( P e r c e n t a g e s , from
sam ple s u r v e y s )
P ill 28 40 65 74
IUD 3 4 8 13
S h e a th 67 68 69 69
W ith d ra w a l 46 45 45 31
None 7 6 3 1
C a te g o ry 1970 1975
C urrent u s e rs :
GP u s e r 14 19
C lin ic user 9 16
O th e r s e r v i c e 1 2
T o tal c u rre n t 24 37
Past u sers 27 31
T o tal e v e r-u s e rs 51 68
Never u s e r s 43 32
Not known 6 -
S o u rc e : Bone, 1978, T a b le 2 . 1 , p . 6.
N ote: A lth o u g h t h e w i d e r a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f a m i l y p l a n n i n g
d a t e s from t h e 1967 A c t , s u b s e q u e n t c h a n g e s u n d e r t h e
N a tio n a l H ealth i n th e p r o v i s i o n o f f r e e fa m ily p la n n in g
s e r v i c e s i n c l i n i c s (1974) and by g e n e r a l p r a c t i t i o n e r s
(1975) a r e b e l i e v e d t o be i m p o r t a n t (OPCS, 1978, p . 2 9 ) .
140
GOVERNMENT POPULATION POLICIES
4.5
- • ▲
- ▲
4.0 — •
©
:
-
3.5 © ©©
- • • ©
- •
- ©©
- ©© © ©
3.0 - © © • • • © • ©© ©
- ©
- © • • ©
- © • • •
- ©© • • • • ©©©
2.5 - ©© ©©©© • ©
- © ©© ©
• ©© ©© • ©
- • © •
- •
2.0 - • • • • • • •
- ©
- ©• © •
1.5 - © ©
• ©
: ■ ©
1.0
0.5
0.0
-J-o.s»-
• Low income economies
® Middle income economies Source: Wor,d Bank- 1984' P P - 254-5
▲ High income oil exporters
■ Industrial market economies and East European non-market economies
141
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
S o u rc e : P o p u l a t i o n T re n d s 3 7 , Autumn 1984, T a b le 23 , p . 50
b . L e g a l l y in d u c e d a b o r t i o n r a t e s ( p e r t h o u s a n d f o r women
aged 1 5 - 4 9 ) , by S t a n d a r d R e g io n s o f E n g lan d and Wales
N o rth 2 .6 3 .8 6 .1 7 .2 7 .8 7 .7
Y o rk s. & Humb. 1 .4 2 .7 4 .8 6 .2 7 .1 7 .7
N o rth West 1 .8 3 .2 5 .0 6 .7 7 .9 8 .3
E a s t M id lan d s 1 .5 2 .5 4 .6 6 .4 7 .4 7 .7
West M id lan d s 2 .0 3 .4 6 .4 8 .2 9 .6 9 .8
E a s t A n g lia 3 .0 3 .9 5.4 8 .1 7 .5 7 .6
South E a s t 4 .5 6 .3 8.9 1 0 .8 12 .6 1 2 .6
South West 2 .2 3 .9 5.9 7 .1 8 .6 8 .3
Wales 2 .4 4 .0 6 .2 7 .9 8 .6 8 .3
142
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
Year I m m i g r a ti o n
A ll C oun tries Old O th e r
Commonwealth(a) Commonwealth(b)
1966 219 36 79
1971 200 52 65
1976 191 40 67
1979 195 31 75
1981 153 20 56
143
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
144
GOVERNMENT POPULATION PO LICIES
145
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
146
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
147
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
M ortality
T here h a v e , if a n y th in g , been ev en few er geographical
stu d ies of th e m ortality com ponent of national population
policies. Most developm ent policies in T h ird World c o u n trie s
will have e ith e r an exp licit statem ent of th e ir in te r e s t in
re d u c in g m ortality , especially in fa n t an d child m o rtality , o r
th is in ten tio n will be subsum ed b y th e program m es fo r h e a lth ,
n u tritio n and w ater. T anzania, fo r exam ple, s h o rtly a fte r
independence in 1961 in clu d ed in its f ir s t five y e a r p lan a
ta rg e t to in c re a se th e exp ectatio n of life from th e th en
c u rre n t 35/40 y e a rs to 50 y e a rs by 1980 (T hom as, 1972).
148
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
Crude
Birth
Rate
Year
Fig. 5.4 T re n d of c ru d e b ir th ra te in India 1962-82 and th e
ta r g e ts in su c c e ssiv e fiv e -y e a r developm ent p la n s.
Source: D .L . N ortm an, 'In d ia 's new b ir th ra te
ta r g e t: An a n a ly s is ', P opulation and Development
Review , 4.2 (J u n e , 1978), p . 281. The 1982 c ru d e
b irth r a te estim ate is from World B an k , 1984,
p . 254).
149
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
150
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
151
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
152
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
Methodological S tu d ies
G eographers have also c o n trib u te d e x te n siv e ly to th e exami
nation of population d ata an d th e m ethods fo r its collection
and tab u latio n (D enham , 1980; N ag, 1984; Rees an d Wilson,
1977; R h in d , 1983). W hereas th is may not seem d ire c tly
related to governm ent population p rogram m es, th e p r e s s u r e
for th e collection of c e rta in ty p e s o f inform ation and th e
public availability of d a ta a re o fte n closely co n n ected w ith th e
form ulation of social an d economic policy an d program m es. It
also perm its th e evalu atio n of th e im pact o f policies. Geo
g ra p h e rs in B ritain have fig u re d prom in ently in th e d e b a te s
about m igration and e th n ic q u e stio n s in th e c e n su se s and
have c o n trib u te d to th e developm ent of te c h n iq u e s fo r u sin g
g rid -s q u a re and p o stco d e-lo cated in form ation. T h e ir w ork on
em ploym ent, th e availab ility of h o usehold am enities, and
153
GOVERNMENT POPULATION POLICIES
T a b le 5 .6 : A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f I n t e r n a l M ig ra tio n and R e d i s t r i b u t i v e
Programmes w ith S e le c te d Exam ples from A f ric a
Area In te n d e d E f f e c t on Movement:
Focus A. I n c r e a s e / F a c i l i t a t e B. D im in is h /E lim in a te
I . R u ral
1. F r o n t i e r s e ttle m e n t 1. R u ra l developm ent
- r i v e r b a s in - a g r i c u l t u r a l p ro d u c tio n
- c ro p la n d e x te n s io n - r u r a l p ro d u c tio n I n f r a s t r u c t u r e
( E a s te r n A f r i c a : A lla n , 1965; - ru ra l s o c ia l In fra s tru c tu re
M cM aster, 1961; E g ero , 1974) - r u r a l employment
2. Labour m ig r a tio n 2. I n t e g r a t e d r e g io n a l developm ent
- d i r e c t : q u o ta s programmes
r e c r u itm e n t (T o d a ro , 1971; M abogunje &
- i n d i r e c t : p o l l /h e a d ta x F a n ir a n , 1977; B elshaw , 1982,
e d u c a tio n B enneh, 1984)
(S o u th e rn A f r ic a : P r o th e r o , 1974;
Colem an, 1979; S w in d e ll, 1979)
3. A g ric u ltu ra l re s e ttle m e n t
- la n d refo rm
- I r r i g a t i o n schem es (and
re s e rv o irs )
- r i v e r b a s in schem es
- r e s e ttlin g re se rv e s
- d is e a s e -re la te d
- c re a tio n o f re so u rc e re se rv e s
( f o r e s t , game)
(Kenya: O dlngo, 1971; Sudan: D avies
1964, K h o g a ll, 1982; Uganda: K abera
1982)
4. V illa g is a tlo n
( A lg e r ia : S u tto n & L a w le ss, 1978;
B otsw ana: S i l i t s h e n a , 1982;
T a n z a n ia : Maro & M lay, 1982;
Thomas, 1982)
I I Urban
1. L abour r e c r u i t m e n t /j o b c r e a t i o n 1. I n - m ig r a tio n c o n tr o l
2. Urban h o u sin g p r o v is io n d i r e c t : p a s s law
3. New C a p i t a l s work p e rm it schem es
4. S econdary to w n s/g ro w th c e n t r e s c a s h g u a r a n te e s u n t i l
- employment d e c o n c e n tr a tio n employment
- s o c i a l s e r v ic e d i s t r i b u t i o n I n d i r e c t : r a t i o n c a r d s ( fo o d /
- In d u s tr ia l d is p e rs a l c lo th e s )
- a d m in is tra tiv e d is p e r s a l h o u sin g c o n t r o l s
5. " S e rv ic e c e n t r e “ r e s e t tl e m e n t (S o u th e rn A f r ic a : F a ir & D a v is ,
6. R e p a t r ia t e u rb a n unem ployed 1976; S m ith , 1982)
(West A f r ic a : A d e ju y ig b e , 1970;
K u d ia b o r, 1977; M abogunje, 1978;
E a s te r n A f r i c a : F u n n e ll, 1976;
D a v ie s, 1981; H o y le, 1979; and
g e n e r a l : T odaro 1976; O 'C o n n o r, 1983)
154
GOVERNMENT PO PU L A T IO N PO L IC IE S
III National
1. Disaster responses 1. Moral exhortation:
- relocate population Education, political
- refugee reception 2. Fiscal:
2. International migrants - remove factor-price
- encourage (recruitment, subsides) distortions
- repatriate - wage subsidies
(W. Africa: Pell, 1971; Uganda: - income policies
Twaddle, 1975; refugees: Rogge, 3. Immigration & emigration
1982) restriction
- direct: visa restrictions
- indirect: foreign exchange
restrictions
4. Disaster responses
- flood control
- rural food storage & free
distribution
- food for work programmes
(Tanzania: Sabot, 1979; McCall
198 ; general: Todaro, 1971;
Abbo, 1982)
CONCLUSION
155
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
REFERENCES
156
GOVERNMENT POPULATION PO LICIES
157
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
158
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
159
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
160
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
163
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
164
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
165
C h a p te r Six
J . Salt
INTRODUCTION
166
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATION
167
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
168
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
169
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M IG R A T IO N
T he N a tu re of Political B a r r ie r s
T h e n a tu r e of th e s e b a r r i e r s lie s in th e s o v e re ig n ty o f th e
s ta t e , w hich r e s u lts in law s a n d re g u la tio n s g o v e rn in g
c itiz e n sh ip a n d th e r ig h ts o f e n tr y a n d e x it, a n d which
re fle c ts th e d evelopm ent o f a ttitu d e s to w a rd s fo re ig n m ig ratio n
(U n ite d N a tio n s, 1982). As f a r a s in te rn a tio n a l m obility is
co n c e rn e d re g u la tio n s may ta k e th e form o f law s, adm ini
s tr a tiv e m e a su re s a n d a g re e m e n ts b etw een s ta te s . A g reem ents
may be re c ip ro c a l; th e y may also b e b ila te ra l o r m u lti-la te ra l.
L abour flow s in to n o rth w e s t E urope in th e 1960s a n d e a rly
1970s w ere g o v e rn e d b y a n e tw o rk of b ila te ra l tr e a tie s w hich
h ad th e e ffe c t of c r e a tin g a v a s t la b o u r m a rk e t e x te n d in g
n o rth to F in lan d a n d s o u th in to tro p ic a l West A fric a , an d
en co m p assin g most o f th e M e d ite rra n e an b a s in . N o rthw est
E urope h a s two s e ts o f m u lti-la te ra l a g re e m e n ts , so f a r not
su c c e s s fu lly re p lic a te d e lse w h e re in th e w o rld : th e N ordic and
EEC common la b o u r m a rk e ts . Within e ach o f th e s e , m em ber
n a tio n a ls h a v e th e r ig h t fre e ly to c r o s s f r o n tie r s to see k and
ta k e up w o rk . In p r a c tic e m obility h a s n e v e r b ee n e n tire ly
fr e e , a s each s ta te h a s r e ta in e d p o w ers to re f u s e e n tr y in to
s e le c te d em ploym ent to n o n -n a tio n a ls .
Where e n tr y is not g o v e rn e d b y s u p ra -n a tio n a l a g r e e
m en t, a v a r ie ty of c o n tro l o p tio n s is a v ailab le to p o te n tia l
h o st g o v e rn m e n ts. M ostly th e s e o p e ra te th ro u g h th e is s u e of
re sid e n c e an d w ork p e rm its a n d may b e e ith e r s h o r t o r long
te rm . In ad d itio n a medical c e rtific a te may also be r e q u ir e d , a
s tif f h u rd le fo r some p o te n tia l m ig ra n ts b u t a way of u s in g
th e em ploym ent in s u r a n c e sy ste m to a d v a n ta g e b y th e ho st
c o u n try - h e a lth y im m ig ran ts p a y in s u r a n c e c o n trib u tio n s b u t
a re le s s lik e ly to r e q u ir e m edical s e r v ic e s . T he p e rm it sy stem
allows c o n sid e ra b le fle x ib ility a n d is in c re a s in g ly u se d in some
c o u n trie s s e le c tiv e ly : family m em bers o fte n fin d it more d iffi
c u lt th a n b re a d w in n e rs to e n t e r , while more h ig h ly sk ille d
im m ig ran ts can u su a lly g ain e n tr y m ore easily as c o u n trie s
seek to e n h a n c e th e ir s to c k s o f hum an c a p ita l. T oday b ra in s
a re more in dem and th a n b ra w n , o n e r e s u lt o f w hich is th a t
some o rig in c o u n trie s a re now a c tiv e ly p e rs u a d in g th e ir
im m igrant c itiz e n s w ith n e e d e d sk ills to r e t u r n . E n try b a r
r ie r s p r e s e n t p a r tic u la r p ro b lem s in some a r e a s , a s in p a r ts
o f A fric a , fo r ex am p le, w h ere colonial fro n tie r s c u t a c ro s s
hom ogeneous e th n ic g r o u p s , th o u g h th e y may be ir re le v a n t
w hen re fu g e e m ovem ents o c c u r . Q u ite fre q u e n tly th e v e ry
e x is te n c e of e n tr y c o n tro ls g iv e s ris e to illegal m ig ra tio n , a
g ro w in g problem in much o f th e w orld w h e re tig h te r e n tr y
170
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
NETWORKS
171
I N T E R N A T IO N A L M IG R A T IO N
172
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
173
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATIO N
174
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATION
175
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATIO N
176
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
177
178
INTERNATIONAL
T a b le 6 . 1 : U n i t e d Kingdom: L o n g -te rm Work P e r m i t s I s s u e d 1981-83
MIGRATION
A u stria 44 91 33 91 35 86
Japan 731 81 764 84 806 85
Norway 128 91 129 95 94 91
F in lan d 51 92 41 85 79 90
Sweden 159 88 129 89 226 93
S w itzerland 74 85 91 87 60 88
USA 1958 94 1945 94 1862 94
A u stralia 264 93 203 95 267 92
Canada 187 96 152 94 235 92
G reece 57 91 46 96 52 94
T urkey 47 89 56 82 36 81
In d ia 168 84 134 86 162 84
M a l a y s ia 203 98 250 98 257 98
T o tal f o r a l l
co u n trie s 5780 88 5569 88 5818 88
1 2 3 4 5
T o ta l f o r a l l
immigrant so u r c e
cou n tries 14.5 3 3 .6 18.7 2 2.9 10.3
179
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
The System an d th e C a re e r
What h a s h ap p en ed is th a t th e in te rp la y of highly skilled
lab o u r fo rces w ith a d v an ced in d u s tria l economies in an in te r
ac tin g u rb a n system h as g e n e ra te d 'b ra in e x c h a n g e s '. Mi
g ratio n th e o rie s b ased on co n cep ts of d is ta n c e , id e a s of p u sh
and p u ll, an d g ra d ie n ts in w ages an d s ta n d a rd s o f liv in g , a re
in a p p ro p ria te fo r ex p lain in g th e s e e x c h a n g e s.
An e x p la n a to ry fram ew ork fo r h ig h level manpower
m igration should be b ased on th e d is a g g re g a te d n a tu re o f th e
m odern lab o u r m ark et, in which sp ecialist sk ills and tra in in g
mean th a t th e w orkforce is segm ented into se lf-co n ta in ed
non-com peting g ro u p s (S a lt, 1983). A ttem pts at explanation
must d istin g u ish specific o ccupational ty p e s and exam ine th e ir
relatio n sh ip with la b o u r m arket p ro c e sse s and in s titu tio n s . A
close association e x is ts betw een th e c a re e r p a th of th e in d i
v id u a l, th e n a tu re of th e job and th e m igration dem ands
im posed b y th e o rg a n isa tio n of w ork an d th e in te rn a l s tr u c
tu re of th e em ployer.
Within th e m igration system th a t re s u lts th e concept of
c a re e r is most im p o rtan t. A c a re e r c o n sists of a seq u en ce of
jobs held b y an in d iv id u al an d re la te d to each o th e r by th e
acquisition of sk ill an d e x p e rie n c e . Mobility betw een jobs
re s u lts from e ith e r ta s k o r locational ch ange and may occur
w ithin an em ploying o rg a n isa tio n o r in movement betw een
o rg a n isa tio n s. T he c a re e r p a th can th e n be defined as th e
ro u te tak en b y th e employee th ro u g h th e sequ en ce o f jobs
( ta s k s ) , o ccu p atio n s (collections of ta s k s ) , em ployers and
locations. T he choice of ro u te b ro ad ly conform s to th e idea
th a t a c a re e r will p ro g re s s u p w a rd s. We may h y p o th esise th a t
on th e se c a re e r p a th s c ritic a l p o in ts will o c cu r at which
p ro p e n sity to move in c re a s e s an d la b o u r m igration re s u lts .
T hese a re p o in ts which p rim arily re fle c t th e n a tu re of th e
occupation an d th e s tr u c tu r e of ta s k s it c o n ta in s, and the
way in w hich an em ployer o rg a n ise s w ork a n d m anages
c a re e rs . T he le n g th an d n a tu re of c a re e r p a th s v a r y , a n d th e
in terco n n ectio n s re fle c t th e o rg a n isa tio n of w ork by th e
em ployer: fo r exam ple, w h e th e r th e co rp o rate philosophy is
th a t c a re e rs should be fun ctio n al o r g e n e ra l.
From th e dem and side th e em ployer h a s a larg e system of
fixed jo b s in to which m ust be fitte d eligible people. D ifferent
policies e x ist fo r doing th a t. B ut su c h in te ra c tio n cannot
ex ist in isolation from su p p ly side c h a ra c te ris tic s in th e
system , p a rtic u la rly a ttitu d e s to w ork an d employee b e h a v
io u r. T h e re is some ev idence th a t th e s e a ttitu d e s v a ry
betw een m igration sy stem s: American m anagers seem fa r more
mobile th a n th e ir E uropean c o u n te r p a r ts , and Je n n in g s
(1971), h as w ritte n of them as 'm o b ilcen tric'. H ence, a s an
in d iv id u al moves th ro u g h h is c a re e r h is decisions about w here
to w ork, an d w hat a t , a re a ffe c ted b y c o n s tra in ts a n d in flu
ences which o p e ra te a t p a rtic u la r moments in tim e.
180
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATIO N
REFUGEES
181
INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION
Fig. 6.1 D istrib u tio n of re fu g e e s 1984
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
183
INTERNATIO NAL MIGRATION
A R efugee System
F ig u re 6.2 shows th e p rin c ip a l elem ent in a global system of
refu g ee flow d eterm in atio n . It co n tain s th re e main elem ents:
th e o rig in c o u n trie s of most re fu g e e flow s, mainly T h ird World
185
SU PER PO W ER S THIRD WORLD PRIMARY ORIGINS
RECEIVING COUNTRIES
188
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IG R A T IO N
CONCLUSION
189
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATIO N
national circu m stan ces can help u s spell o u t th e lim its w ithin
which we might a s p ire to a g e n e ra l th e o ry .
REFERENCES
190
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATION
191
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATIO N
192
IN T ER N AT IO NA L MIGRATION
193
C h a p te r Seven
J . G u g ler
T h is c h a p te r , in c o n tr a s t to th e o th e r c o n trib u tio n s to th is
volum e, h a s an e x p lic it re g io n a l focu s on th e le ss d e v elo p ed
c o u n trie s o f A sia, O cean ia, A fric a , L atin A m erica, a n d th e
C a rib b e a n . T h e se c o u n trie s a re p o o r b y d e fin itio n . T he ma
jo rity o f p eople ty p ic a lly liv e in r u r a l a re a s w h ere most
c o n tin u e to farm w ith lim ited in p u ts . A nd ev en th o u g h u rb a n
g ro w th e x c e e d s n a tu r a l p o p u la tio n g ro w th in e v e ry c o u n tr y ,
th e r u r a l p o p u latio n c o n tin u e s to grow alm ost e v e ry w h e re .
S till, th e r e is c o n s id e ra b le v a ria tio n am ong T h ird World
c o u n trie s : incom e lev els ra n g e w idely; a n d w hile some
c o u n trie s a re only b e g in n in g to u r b a n is e , o th e r s h a v e n e a rly
com pleted th e u rb a n tr a n s itio n (T a b le 7 .1 ) . W ithin th e T h ird
W orld, L atin A m erica c o n s titu te s a d is tin c t re g io n f u r th e r
along in b o th , econom ic develo p m en t an d u rb a n is a tio n .
T he la rg e ly r u r a l c h a r a c te r o f most T h ird World
c o u n trie s m akes two m ig ra to ry p a t t e r n s s ta n d o u t: r u r a l- r u r a l
m igration an d r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n . L arg e n u m b e rs of people
p a rtic ip a te in r u r a l- r u r a l m ig ratio n in many T h ird World
c o u n trie s . T hey u su a lly move to more a b u n d a n t o r more
fe rtile la n d s . N a tu ra l calam ities, s u c h a s th e d r o u g h t in th e
S ahel zone in A fric a , p r e c ip ita te su c h m ovem ents. P ublic
a g e n c ie s may a s s is t m ig ra n ts o r in d e e d r e c r u it them . T he
’tr a n s m ig r a tio n schem e in In d o n e sia to move people from th e
most d en sely p o p u la te d is la n d s - J a v a , B ali, a n d Lombok - to
o th e r is la n d s , is th e m ost am bitious s u c h p ro je c t. A bout 2.5
million p eo p le h av e b e e n moved b etw een 1979 an d 1984, and
g o v ern m en t p la n s call fo r 65 million p eople to be s h ifte d u p to
3,000 k ilo m eters from th e ir p r e s e n t hom es o v e r th e n e x t 20
y e a r s . When re se ttle m e n t is s u c c e s s f u l, r u r a l- r u r a l m ig ra n ts ,
u n lik e th e ir c o u sin s who go to th e c ity , a re a s s u r e d of
* T h is c h a p te r d ra w s on my d is c u s s io n o f r u r a l- u r b a n mi
g ra tio n a n d u rb a n em ploym ent in G ilb e rt an d G u g ler (1982).
I w ish to th a n k , w ith o u t im p lic a tin g , William G. F lanagan
fo r h e lp fu l com m ents, S ask ia G u g le r fo r e d itin g .
194
I N T E R N A L M I G R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
(self-)em p lo y m en t a n d o f a n econom ic a s s e t, th e ir la n d , th a t
can s u s ta in them in old a g e . H ence th e y a re th e r e f o re le ss
lik ely to in v e s t in m ain tain in g a claim to la n d in th e ir a re a of
o rig in . As in th e c ity , h o w e v e r, th e y may face h o stility from
in d ig e n e o u s p eople o r o th e r im m igrant g r o u p s .
195
INTERNAL
co
o>
MIGRATION
p o p u la tio n as ra tio Urban g ro w th , P o p u l a t i o n grow th
GNP p e r percentage (m a les average annual average annual
P o p u latio n cap ita of to ta l p e r 1,0 00 g ro w th r a t e grow th r a t e
(m illio n s) (d o lla rs) pop u latio n fe m a le s ) (p ercen t) (p erc en t)
R egion/country mid-1983 1983* 19833 c i r c a 1970 1965-73 1973-83 1973-83
IN THE THIRD
E a s t A sia
Burma 35 180 29 1040 4 .0 3 .9 2.0
China 1019 300 21 na na na 1 .5
In d o n esia 156 560 24 1000 4 .1 4 .8 2 .3
K o re a, N orth 19 (930) 62 na 4 .9 4 .2 2 .5
K o re a, So uth 40 2010 62 996 6 .5 4 .8 1.6
M a la y s ia 15 1860 31 1013 3 .3 3 .5 2 .4
WORLD
P h ilip p in e s 52 760 39 933 4 .0 3 .8 2 .7
T h a il a n d 49 820 18 983 4 .8 3 .6 2 .3
V ietnam 59 (240) 20 na 5 .5 2 .4 2 .7
South A s ia
B an g la d e sh 95 130 17 1294 6 .6 7 .6 2 .4
India 733 260 24 1166 4 .0 4 .2 2 .3
Nepal 16 160 7 1173 4 .3 8 .2 2 .6
P ak istan 90 390 29 1227 4.3 4 .3 3 .0
S r i Lanka 15 330 26 1133 3.4 2 .9 1.7
Middle E a s t and N o rth A f r i c a
A fg h an istan 17 (230) 17
A lg eria 21 2320 46
Egypt 45 700 45
Iran 43 (1690) 53
Iraq 15 (1930) 69
Morocco 21 760 43
S au d i A r a b ia 10 12230 71
S yria 10 1760 48
T urkey 47 1240 45
S u b sah aran A f r i c a
Cameroon 10 820 39
E thiop ia 41 120 15
Ghana 13 310 38
Kenya 19 340 17
Mozambique 13 (370) 17
N ig eria 94 770 22
S o u th A f r i c a 32 2490 55
Sudan 21 400 20
T a n z a n ia 21 240 14
Uganda 14 220 7
Z aire 30 170 38
to
-j
na 5.6 6.2 2.6
999 2.5 5.4 3.1
1054 3.0 2.9 2.5
INTERNAL
1085 5.4 5.1 3.1
1029 5.7 5.3 3.6
958 4.0 4.2 2.6
na 8.4 7.4 4.7
1071 4.8 4.2 3.3
1148 4.9 3.7 2.2
MIGRATION
na 7.3 8.4 3.1
903 7.4 6.0 2.7
996 4.5 5.3 3.1
1386 7.3 8.0 4 .0 IN THE
na 8. 2 10.2 2.6
1149 4.7 5.1 2.7
1119 2. 6 3.9 2.4
THIRD
INTERNAL
Table 7 .1 : (co n tin u ed )
MIGRATION
P o p u latio n c a p ita of t o t a l per 1,000 growth r a te growth r a te
(m illio n s ) ( d o lla r s ) p o p u la tio n fem ales) (p e rc e n t) (p e rc e n t)
R egion/country mid-1983 19832 19833 c ir c a 1970 1965-73 1973-83 1973-83
L atin America
A rgentina 84 953 2.1 2.1 1.6
IN THE
30 2070
B ra z il 130 1880 71 939 4.5 4.1 2.3
C hile 12 1870 82 906 2.8 2.4 1.7
Colombia 28 1430 66 868 4.4 2.9 1.9
Cuba 10 (1180) 70 983 2.8 1.9 0.8
THIRD
Mexico 75 2240 69 966 4 .8 4.1 2 .9
Peru 18 1040 67 1000 4.7 3.6 2.4
Venezuela 17 3840 85 961 4 .8 4.3 3 .5
WORLD
na - Not a v a ila b le
1. This ta b le in c lu d e s a l l T hird World c o u n trie s w ith a p o p u latio n over 9.5 m illio n in m id-1983.
2. GNP p er c a p ita f ig u r e s ( in b ra c k e ts ) a re fo r 1982 and from a d if f e r e n t so u rce ; they a re not s t r i c t l y
com parable w ith th e o th e r GNP per c a p ita f ig u r e s .
3. P ercen tag es urban a re based on d i f f e r e n t n a tio n a l d e f in itio n s of what i s 'u r b a n ', and c ro s s
c o u n try com parisons should be in te r p r e te d w ith c a u tio n .
Source: A ll d a ta from World Bank (1985: annex ta b le s 1, 19 and 2 2 ), except GNP p er c a p ita 1982
(in b ra c k e ts ) from S ivard (1985: s t a t i s t i c a l annex ta b le I I I ) , urban sex r a t i o s from F erree
and G ugler (1985).
I N T E R N A L M IG R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T ER N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T E R N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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I N T E R N A L M I G R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T ER N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T E R N A L M IG R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
3F o r an e x te n s iv e review of th e lit e r a tu r e on in te rn a l
m igration in A fric a , A sia , an d L atin A m erica, see Simmons,
D ia z -B riq u e ts , a n d L aquian (1 9 7 7 ); fo r a g e n e ra l review of
th e m ig ratio n lite r a tu r e th a t fo c u se s on th e o ry c o n s tru c tio n ,
Shaw (1975); fo r a c o m p re h e n siv e b ib lio g ra p h y of lite r a tu r e
on la b o u r m ig ratio n in L atin A m erica, Low der (1978).
**Yap (1977) p ro v id e s a c ritic a l review of th e econom etric
s tu d ie s th a t h a v e come to dom inate r e s e a r c h sin c e th e late
1960s.
204
IN T E R N A L M IG R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T ER N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T E R N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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IN T ER N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
MIGRATION STRATEGIES
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IN T E R N A L M IGR ATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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I NT ER NAL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
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I N T E R N A L M I G R A T I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
WHO MIGRATES?
211
I N T E R N A L MI G R AT I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
PATTERNS OF MIGRATION
61 am in d e b te d to F ra n c in e v a n de Walle f o r th is o b s e rv a tio n .
212
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I N T ER N AL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
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I N T E R N A L M I G R A T I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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I NT ER NAL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
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I N T ER N A L MI GRATI ON IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
MIGRATION POLICY
217
I N T E R N A L M I G R A T I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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I N T E R N A L M I G R AT I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
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I NT ER NAL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
REFERENCES
220
I N T E R N A L MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
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I NTERNAL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
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I NT ER N AL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
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C h a p te r E ight
COUNTERURBANISATION
A .J . F ielding
INTRODUCTION
T h re e u n a n tic ip a te d c h a n g e s in th e c h a r a c te r of in te rn a l
m igration in ’w e s te r n 1 d ev elo p ed c o u n trie s h av e ta k e n p lace
d u r in g th e re c e n t p e rio d . T h e f i r s t is th e d o w n tu rn in i n t e r
la b o u r m ark et a re a m obility r a t e s . T h e se h a d b ee n in c re a s in g
up u n til ab o u t 1970 a n d w ere e x p e c te d to in c re a se th e r e a f te r .
In d eed it w as a t a b o u t th e time th a t th e d o w n tu rn o c c u rre d
th a t Z elinski p u b lis h e d h is in flu e n tia l p a p e r on th e ’m obility
tra n s itio n ’; th is p a p e r v e r y p e rs u a s iv e ly s itu a te d in te rn a l
m igration w ithin it s b r o a d e r social c o n te x t, a n d a rg u e d th a t
w e ste rn d ev elo p ed c o u n trie s w ere e n te r in g a p h a se in w hich
u n id ire c tio n a l r u r a l- to - u r b a n m ig ratio n stre a m s w ould be
rep la c e d b y ’c irc u la tio n 1, a s itu a tio n in w hich h ig h lev els of
m obility w ould c h a r a c te r is e all a r e a s . It w as n o t to b e . T he
lev els o f in te rre g io n a l m ig ratio n w ere in alm ost all c a s e s low er
in th e la te 1970s a n d e a rly 1980s th a n th e y w ere in th e 1960s
(O g ilv ie, 1979).
T h e seco n d u n e x p e c te d c h a n g e is th e ’tu r n r o u n d ’ in th e
p a tte r n o f n e t m ig ra tio n . P rio r to ab o u t 1970 th e r e was a
p o sitiv e c o rre la tio n b etw een th e p o p u la tio n siz e o f a se ttle m e n t
(co n ceiv ed h e re in la b o u r m ark et a re a te rm s) a n d i t s n e t
m ig ratio n ; th e sm a lle r, m ore r u r a l o r more iso la te d a place
w as, th e more lik ely it was to lose p o p u la tio n th r o u g h in te rn a l
m ig ra tio n , a n d th e l a r g e r , more u rb a n o r more c e n tra l a p lace
w as, th e more lik ely it w as to g ain th ro u g h in te rn a l
m ig ra tio n . It m ight h a v e b e e n e x p e c te d th a t th is p a tte r n
would h av e c o n tin u e d a f te r 1970 b e c a u s e th e em ploym ent sh ift
aw ay from a g r ic u ltu r e an d to w a rd s th e s e rv ic e s c o n tin u e d , as
did th e a d v a n ta g e of m etro p o litan a r e a s o v e r r u r a l a re a s w ith
re s p e c t to w age le v e ls a n d le v e ls o f u n em ploym ent. A gain th is
d id n o t h a p p e n . T h e re la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n size of se ttle m e n t
a n d n e t m ig ratio n becam e a n e g a tiv e o n e , th e la r g e s t c itie s
lost a n d th e sm aller to w n s a n d r u r a l a r e a s gain ed ( C o u r t,
1984).
224
COUNTERURBANISATION
226
COUNTERURBANISATION
F ig . 8 .1 US annual net migration rates per thousand population 1960-70 and 1970-75 by settlement
size (SMSA) category.
COUNTERURBANISATION
229
COUNTERURBANISATION
T a b le 8 . 1 : A n n u al N e t M i g r a t i o n R a t e s p e r T h o u sa n d Popu
l a t i o n f o r US N o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n C o u n t i e s C l a s s i f i e d by D e g re e
o f F u n c t i o n a l C o n n e c t i o n w i t h M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s 1 9 6 0 -7 0 and
1 9 7 0 -7 5 .
L evel o f
Commuting t o 1970 p o p . N e t m i g r a t i o n r a t e s % p e r annum
M e t r o p o l i t a n A re a x 106 1 9 6 0 -7 0 1 9 7 0 -7 5 S h ift
l e s s t h a n 3% 26.2 -8 .3 + 4 .6 + 1 2 .9
3-9% 1 3 .5 -4 .2 + 5 .6 + 9 .8
10-19% 9 .3 -1 .3 + 7 .8 + 9 .1
20% and o v e r 4 .0 + 1 .1 + 1 3 .1 + 1 2 .0
Source: B erry (1 9 8 0 ).
T ab le 8 .2 : R a t i o o f M e t r o p o l i t a n t o N o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n Popu
l a t i o n Growth R a t e s i n t h e US 1 9 5 0 -8 0 .
1 9 50 -60 1 9 6 0 -7 0 1 9 70 -80
R atio m e t r o / n o n - m e t r o 3 .7 2 .4 0 .7
S o u r c e : Long ( 1 9 8 2 ) .
p e r s is te d a n d may e v e n h av e in c r e a s e d in im p o rta n c e . At th e
same time th e r e a re s ig n s th a t th e o v e ra ll level o f mobility
h a s d e c re a se d (P la n e , 1984).
T he p e rv a s iv e n e s s of p o p u latio n d is p e rs a l in th e USA
d u rin g th e re c e n t p e rio d is show n b y Long a n d de A re ’s w ork
on th e 1980 c e n s u s (L o n g , 1982). U sing th e H oover in d e x of
c o n c e n tra tio n , th e y m e a su re d th e s p a tia l d is trib u tio n s of th e
po p u latio n o f th e USA in 1970 an d 1980 a t d iffe re n t sp a tia l
lev els (c o u n ty , s ta te , d iv isio n a n d r e g io n ) , an d fo u n d th a t
d e c o n c e n tra tio n h a d o c c u rre d a t e ach of th e s e le v e ls . It is
h a rd to e sc a p e B e r r y ’s (1976) co n clu sio n th a t a ro u n d 1970 fa
tu r n in g p o in t (h a d ) b e e n re a c h e d in th e A m erican u rb a n
e x p e rie n c e . C o u n te ru rb a n is a tio n (h a d ) re p la c e d u rb a n is a tio n
a s th e dom inant fo rce s h a p in g th e n a tio n 's se ttle m e n t p a t
t e r n s ’ ( B e r r y , 1976, 1980; R osem an, 1977; V ining and
S tr a u s s , 1977).
230
14-
12-
10-
- 2 i
-4 J
232
COUNTERURBANISATIO N
233
COUNTERURBANISATION
234
COUNTERURBANISATION
235
COUNTERURBANISATION
236
1954-62
1962-68
1968-75
1975-82
Paris
COUNTERURBANISATION
rural communes ■* --------urban communes grouped into agglomerations------►
g Fig. 8.4 France, annual net migration rates per thousand population 1954-82 by settlement size
^ (rural commune and unites urbaines) category.
COUNTERURBANISATION
T ab le 8 . 3 : N et I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n R a t e s P e r c e n t P o p u l a t i o n
f o r M a jo r R e g i o n s i n F r a n c e 1 9 5 4 -6 2 an d 1 9 7 5 - 8 2 .
% p o p. Net M i g r a t i o n R a t e s
M a jo r R e g io n of France 1 9 5 4 -6 2 1 9 7 5 -8 2
Source: C ensuses.
THEORIES OF COUNTERURBANISATION
238
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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C O U NT E R UR B A N I S A T I O N
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COUNTERURBANISATION
REFERENCES
249
C OU NT E R U R B A N I S A T I O N
250
C OUNT E R UR B ANI S AT I ON
252
COUNTERURBANISATION
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C OU N T E R U R B A N I S A T I O N
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COUNTERURBANISATION
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C h ap ter Nine
M. C adw allader
INTER-REGIONAL MIGRATION
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MI GRATION AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
Spatial P a tte rn s
More re c e n t work on th e sp atial p a tte r n of m igration flows has
em phasised b o th d ista n c e an d d irectio n al b ia se s. In term s of
d ista n c e , a v a rie ty of s tu d ie s have shown th a t th e num ber of
m igrants from any given region d e c re a ses with in c re a sin g
d ista n c e . In a now classic s tu d y , H a g e rstra n d (1957)
examined th e re la tio n sh ip betw een m igration and d istan c e fo r
th e village of A sby in Sw eden. He concluded th a t m igration is
indeed an in v e rs e fu n ctio n of d ista n c e , although th e tem poral
decline in th e d ista n c e coefficient in d ic ated th a t A sb y 's
m igration field was e x p a n d in g . Since H a g e rstra n d 's stu d y a
num ber of sc h o la rs h av e in v e stig a te d th e functional form of
the relatio n sh ip lin k in g m igration and d ista n c e , an d have
su g g e ste d a ra n g e of possib le a lte rn a tiv e s , in clu d in g the
double-log, n eg ativ e e x p o n e n tia l, and s q u a re -ro o t ex p o n en tial
(H ay n es, 1974).
R eg ard less of th e p re c ise functional form , h o w ever, th e
w eight of evidence in d ic a te s th a t th e role of d istan ce has
d ecreased o v e r time. F or exam ple, C layton (1977) found th a t
th e c o n trib u tio n of d ista n c e to th e to tal explained v a riatio n in
in te r - s ta te m igration in th e U nited S ta te s declined p r o g re s s
ively betw een 1935 an d 1970. T h e re is con sid erab le d o u b t,
how ever, as to w h eth er th e in d iv id u al e ffect of d istan c e can
e v e r be sa tisfa c to rily iso la te d . It h a s been a rg u e d th a t
d ista n c e -d e ca y p a ra m e te rs re fle c t a complex com bination of
sp atial s tr u c tu r e , invo lv in g th e size an d co n fig u ratio n of
o rig in s and d e stin a tio n s in a sp atial sy ste m , and in trin sic
in te ra c tio n b e h av io u r, th u s p re c lu d in g an y simple in te r p r e t
ation of th e se p a ra m e te rs (F o th e rin g h a m , 1981).
With re sp e c t to d irectio n al b ia s , th e r e s u lts of d e s c rip
tiv e s tu d ie s a re p e rh a p s even more d ifficu lt to in te r p r e t.
When exam ining th e d irectio n al b ia s in m igration flows betw een
cities in th e U nited S ta te s , Wolpert (1967) concluded th a t
th e re was a d istin c t bias tow ard th e South-W est. As with
d ista n c e , how ev er, su ch a conclusion is tem pered b y th e fact
th a t th e d irectio n al com ponents of m igration stream s a re
in ev itab ly co n stra in e d b y th e e x istin g geom etry of population
d istrib u tio n . T he ex p lo ratio n of m igration flows th ro u g h
v a rio u s forms of lin k ag e an aly sis seem s p o tentially more
prom ising, an d th is a p p ro ach h as b een applied to m igration
d ata from v a rio u s p a r ts of th e w orld. On th e b asis of in te r
action p a tte r n s , th e linkage a n a ly sis g e n e ra te s a h iera rc h ica l
system of m igration field s (S la te r, 1984), th e ch an g in g n a tu re
of which can be u sefu lly m onitored. F or exam ple, u sin g
U nited S ta te s d ata fo r 1935 to 1970, C layton (1977) rev eale d a
red u ctio n in th e num ber of term inal n o d es, re fle c tin g an
in c re a sin g co n cen tratio n a ro u n d a few major d e stin a tio n s,
such as C alifornia, F lo rid a, an d T ex as.
In addition to id e n tify in g d ista n c e an d d irectio n al b ia se s,
a v a rie ty of a u th o rs have attem p ted to s tu d y m igration via
th e p o p u la r g ra v ity model. T h is model p o stu la te s th a t th e
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MIGRATION AND I NT RA- URB AN MOBILITY
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MI GRATION AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
Dynamic Models
S tru c tu ra l eq u atio n models have o ften in c o rp o ra te d ch ange
over time b y th e u se of lag g ed v a ria b le s. Tem poral change
has receiv ed more formal a tte n tio n , ho w ev er, in th e co n tex t
of Markov Chain m odels. M igration tra n sitio n p ro b ab ility
m atrices can be c o n s tru c te d to d e sc rib e th e p ro p o rtio n of
people who, d u rin g a given time p e rio d , move from one region
262
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MI GRATI ON AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
B ehavioural A p proaches
A p relim inary ste p to w ard s form ulating a more b eh aviourally
o rie n te d ap proach to m igration in v o lv es th e in v estm en t in
human capital th eo ry of m ig ratio n , w hereby a move from i to j
is assum ed to d ep en d on th e income d iffe re n tia l betw een
reg io n s i and j , d isco u n ted fo r fu tu re income in i, less the
co sts of m igrating from i to j. M igration is re g a rd e d as an
investm ent becau se th e b e n e fits can only a c c ru e o v er a perio d
of tim e, an d as th e in v estm en t is in th e in d iv id u al o r family it
re p re s e n ts an in v estm en t in human c a p ital. A c o st-b e n e fit
fram ework is u tilise d , in which both financial and n o n -fin a n -
cial fa c to rs can be in c lu d e d . For exam ple, th e co sts of
m igrating from i to j might involve "o p p o rtu n ity c o sts" ,
e x p re s s in g th e loss of w ages d u e to moving and se a rc h in g for
w ork, and "p sy ch ic c o s ts " , re p re s e n tin g th e psychological
traum a of u p ro o tin g th e ho u seh o ld . More re c e n t v e rsio n s of
th e human capital th e o ry have em phasised th e notion of
exp ected income d iffe re n tia ls (H a rris an d T o d aro , 1970), th u s
a rg u in g th a t m ig ran ts attem pt to maximise e x p e cted u tility .
Speare (1971) w a rn s, how ever, th a t alth o u g h th e co st-b en e fit
framework p ro v id e s a reaso n ab le re p re s e n ta tio n of th e fa c to rs
involved in th e m igration p ro c e s s , it should not be implied
th a t th e e x p e c te d c o sts an d b e n e fits a re actu ally calcu lated .
Many m igrants will only have a r a th e r v a g u e idea concerning
exp ected e a rn in g p o te n tia l, an d moving c o sts can o ften only
be approxim ately estim ated .
D espite i t s w id esp read u se in th e c o n tex t of lab o u r
m igration, th e human capital a p p ro ach h a s not been immune
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P referen ces
A lthough th e ex plication of th e lin k s betw een p re fe re n c e s and
o v ert b eh av io u r has been of th e utm ost im portance, it has
been equally im portant to explain th e p re fe re n c e s them selves.
In o th e r w o rd s, can we explain why c e rta in in d iv id u a ls p re f e r
ce rta in locations? The an sw er to th is q u e stio n in v olves try in g
to e sta b lish how in d iv id u a ls in te g ra te v a rio u s p ieces of in fo r
mation into some kind of overall u tility v alue th a t th e y can
th en u se to ran k a lte rn a tiv e s . Within th e m igration lite ra tu re
th e re have been th re e major ap p ro a c h e s to th is problem . The
rev ealed p re fe re n c e ap p ro ach inv o lv es th e exam ination of
o b se rv e d b eh av io u r in o rd e r to u n c o v e r th e u n d erly in g
p re fe re n c e s tr u c tu r e , and so e s ta b lish ru le s of b e h a v io u r.
For exam ple, Schw ind (1971) in d u c tiv e ly d e riv e d th e sp atial
p re fe re n c e s of m igrants fo r reg io n s b y an aly sin g actual
m igration flows betw een S tate Economic A reas in Maine. Simi
la rly , T obler (1979) com puted th e re la tiv e a ttra c tiv e n e s s of
sta te s from d ata on in te r - s ta te m igration. It h a s been pointed
o u t, h ow ever, th a t only p u re ly d isc re tio n a ry b e h a v io u r should
be an aly sed in term s of rev e a le d p re fe re n c e s . In those
in sta n c e s w here th e choice is c o n stra in e d in some w ay, th e re
will be a confounding of p re fe re n c e s and c o n s tra in ts .
Since th e rev ealed p re fe re n c e a p p ro ach only allows one
to ded u ce a p re fe re n tia l o rd e rin g fo r th e ra n g e o f sp atial
a lte rn a tiv e s th a t a re available in a p a rtic u la r s tu d y a re a ,
some re s e a rc h e rs have attem p ted to develop experim ental
d esig n s w hereby u ttrib u te v a lu e s can be m anipulated to
p ro d u ce a v u rie ty of a b s tra c t com binations, th u s c re a tin g a
set of h ypothetical a lte rn a tiv e s th a t is in d e p e n d e n t of any
p a rtic u la r spatial s tr u c tu r e . One of th e p o ten tially most usefu l
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MIGRATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N MO BILITY
INTRA-URBAN MOBILITY
270
M I G R A T IO N AND I N T R A - U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
p a tte r n w as a c h ie v e d th r o u g h th e u s e o f tr e n d s u rfa c e a n a ly
s is . For all th r e e time p e rio d s a n a ly s e d , th e b e s t fit was
p ro v id e d b y th e c u b ic s u r f a c e , w ith b e tw ee n 21 a n d 57 p e r
cen t o f th e v a ria tio n in m obility r a te s b e in g a c c o u n te d fo r. Of
g r e a te r i n t e r e s t , h o w e v e r, w as th e c h a n g e o v e r tim e, w hich
su g g e s te d th a t th e s u r f a c e s w ere becom ing in c re a sin g ly
complex a n d c o n v o lu te d .
In a d d itio n to id e n tify in g th e s p a tia l p a tte r n o f m obility
r a te s , a tte m p ts h av e also b e e n made to e s ta b lis h th e i n t e r
re la tio n s h ip s b etw een m obility r a te s a n d o th e r f e a tu r e s of th e
u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t, s u c h a s socio-econom ic, d e m o g ra p h ic , a n d
h o u sin g c h a r a c te r is tic s . U sin g a re a l d a ta fo r B ris b a n e ,
A u s tra lia , Moore (1969) d e v e lo p e d a c a u sa l model in v o lv in g
v a ria b le s like d is ta n c e from th e c e n tra l b u s in e s s d is tr ic t,
p e rc e n ta g e o f dw ellin g s o w n e r-o c c u p ie d , a n d p e rc e n ta g e o f
A u stra lia n b o r n . D esp ite th e s a tis fa c to ry em p irical f it, how
e v e r , th e model was d is a p p o in tin g in th a t th e e x p la n a to ry
v a ria b le s w ere se le c te d in an ad hoc fa s h io n , r a t h e r th a n on
th e b a s is of some u n d e rly in g th e o re tic a l fram ew o rk . More
re c e n t w ork in th is lin e , h a s u tilis e d th e c o n c e p ts o f h o u sin g
space a n d social sp ace (C a d w a lla d e r, 1981), w ith th e r e s u lts
of a s e rie s of p a th a n a ly s e s em p h a sisin g th e im p o rta n t ro le of
h o u sin g ty p e v a r ia b le s . S u ch c a u sa l sy ste m s can also be
c o n v e n ie n tly m odelled u s in g a sim u ltan eo u s e q u a tio n s a p p ro a c h
(C ad w allad er, 1982). S u ch an a p p ro a c h e x p lic itly re c o g n ise s
th a t m obility r a te s a re a c a u se o f , a s well a s a c o n se q u e n c e
o f, n e ig h b o u rh o o d c h a r a c te r is tic s .
D e sc rip tio n s of i n t r a - u r b a n flow s, r a t h e r th a n ju s t
tu r n o v e r r a t e s , h a v e fo c u se d on th e b ia se s a sso c ia te d w ith
d ista n c e a n d d ire c tio n . As w ith in te r - r e g io n a l m ig ra tio n , th e r e
is a p re p o n d e re n c e o f s h o r t- d is ta n c e m oves. In d e e d , fo r th e
city of S e a ttle , it h a s b e e n e stim a te d th a t th e a v e ra g e le n g th
of an in tr a - u r b a n move is le s s th a n th r e e miles (B o y c e,
1969). T h e e v id e n c e c o n c e rn in g d ire c tio n a l b ia se s is more
am big u o u s, h o w e v e r, a lth o u g h it h a s b e en s u g g e s te d th a t
c e n tr a l- a r e a m oves a re random ly o r ie n te d , w hile moves w ithin
th e s u b u r b s te n d to e x h ib it a se c to ra l b ia s (C la rk , 1971).
S u ch an a s s e rtio n can b e re la te d to th e n o tio n th a t re s id e n ts
o fte n p o s s e s s u r b a n im ages th a t a re s e c to ra l r a t h e r th a n
zo n al, a n d th a t th e u n d e r ly in g socio-econom ic s t r u c t u r e of
c itie s h a s an im p o rta n t s e c to ra l co m p o n ent. It is ex c e e d in g ly
d iffic u lt to g e n e ra lis e a c ro s s d if f e r e n t c itie s , h o w e v e r, a s th e
d ire c tio n of moves will b e a s s e n s itiv e to th e id io s y n c ra tic
location o f new h o u sin g develo p m en t in a p a r tic u la r c ity as it
is to th e o v e ra ll sp a tia l p a t te r n of c itie s in g e n e ra l.
T he most s ig n ific a n t r e g u la r ity in te rm s of m ig ratio n
flow s, h o w e v e r, is th a t most h o u se h o ld s move b etw een a re a s
of sim ilar socio-econom ic s t a t u s . A lp e ro v ic h (1983) c o n s tru c te d
a m ultiple re g r e s s io n model to a s s e s s th e in flu e n c e o f s e v e ra l
v a ria b le s on m igration w ith in th e Isra e li c ity of T el A v iv -
Yafo. T h e e stim a te d c o e ffic ie n ts s u g g e s te d th e im p o rta n ce o f
271
MIGRATION AND IN T R A -U R B A N M O BILITY
272
M IG R A T IO N AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBILITY
R esidential Search
Once a household d ecides to move it m ust b eg in to se a rc h fo r
a lte rn a tiv e accommodation. T h e re a re th re e in te rre la te d
q uestio n s th a t a re pivotal to an y u n d e rs ta n d in g o f th e r e s i
dential se a rc h p ro c e s s . F ir s t, w hat a re th e inform ation
sou rces u se d to find a p p ro p ria te h ousing? S econd, how long
is th e se a rc h activ ity ? T h ird , is th e r e an y p a rtic u la r sp a tial
p a tte rn associated w ith th e se a rc h a c tiv ity ? T he most
im portant so u rces of inform ation fo r p ro sp e c tiv e m overs a re
new spaper a d v e rtise m e n ts, p e rso n a l c o n ta c ts , p erso n a l
observation of "fo r sale" s ig n s , and rea l e s ta te a g e n ts .
D ifferent so u rces of inform ation a p p e a r to be u sed according
to th e ty p e of dw elling u n it th a t is d e s ire d . N ew spaper
adv ertisem en ts a re often u sed when looking fo r an a p a rtm e n t,
while real e s ta te a g e n ts a re an effe c tiv e so u rce fo r house
h u n te r s , especially in th e c o n te x t o f o u t-o f-to w n b u y e rs
273
MIGRATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
N eighbourhood Evaluation
T he th ir d p a r t o? th e re sid e n tia l d ecision-m aking p ro c e s s ,
neighbourhood ev aluation an d choice, h a s two major com
p o n e n ts. F ir s t, w hat a re th e ev alu a tiv e dim ensions th a t
households u se to d istin g u ish betw een a lte rn a tiv e n e ig h
bourhoods? S econd, how is inform ation on th o se ev alu a tiv e
dim ensions u se d to reach some k in d of a decision? E arly work
274
M IGR ATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
R esidential Choice
A ttem pts to model th e a ctu al choice p ro c e s s in volved in re s i
dential mobility have in clu d ed u sin g th e conjoint m easurem ent
tech n iq u e and inform ation in te g ra tio n th e o ry . T he conjoint
m easurem ent model re q u ire s su b je c ts to ev alu ate m u lti-a ttri-
b u te a lte rn a tiv e s by com paring p re d e te rm in ed lev els o f th e
supposedly im p o rtan t a ttr ib u te s . T he su b je ctiv e ra n k in g s o f
v ario u s com binations of th e se ex p erim en tal levels a re th e n
decomposed in to p re fe re n c e fu n c tio n s. F or exam ple, K night
and Menchik (1976) have ex p lo red in d iv id u a l p re fe re n c e s fo r a
v arie ty of re sid e n tia l form s b a se d on th e ra n k in g o f h y p o
th etical levels of su c h a ttr ib u te s a s d ista n c e betw een h o u se s,
view from th e b a c k y a rd , an d p ric e . Inform ation in te g ra tio n
th e o ry inv o lv es c o n s tru c tin g an alg e b ra ic model of human
info rm atio n -p ro cessin g , an d th e n te s tin g th is model by means
of an aly sis of v a ria n c e . The th e o ry is co n cern ed w ith how
d iffe re n t p ieces of inform ation a re in te g r a te d in to a single
overall ev alu atio n , an d in a stu d y o f s tu d e n t ju d g em en ts a s to
th e re sid e n tia l d e sira b ility of v a rio u s n e ig h b o u rh o o d s,
275
M IG R A T IO N AND I N T R A - U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
276
M IGR ATIO N AND IN T R A -U R B A N MOBILITY
Acknowledgements
The s tu d y was su p p o rte d by g ra n ts from th e Wisconsin
Alumni R esearch F oundation an d th e National Science
F oundation, g ra n t num ber SES-8206940. P a rt of th e work was
u n d e rta k e n while th e a u th o r was a V isiting Scholar in th e
D epartm ent o f G eo g rap h y , U niv ersity o f C am bridge.
REFERENCES
277
MIGRATIO N AND IN T R A -U R B A N M O BILITY
278
MIGRATION AND IN T R A -U R B A N M O BILITY
279
MIGRATION AND IN T R A -U R B A N M O BILITY
280
M IGR ATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N MO BILITY
281
MIGRATIO N AND iN T R A -U R B A N MOBILITY
282
M IGR ATIO N AND IN T R A -U R B A N M O BILITY
283
C h a p te r Ten
POPULATION MODELLING
P. Rees
284
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS
285
P O PU L A T IO N MODELLING
4 —t— I—<■—t- S p a t ia l B o u n d a r y o l T e m p o ra l B o u n d a ry ot
S y s te m I System
----------------------- B o u n d a ry 8 e t w e e n S t a te a M o v e a B e tw e e n S t a t e s
A , B. C, D. L ife H ia to ry T y p e a © L e a v e rs F ro m S y a te m [d ] D e a th
286
T a b le 1 0 .1 : S i x t e e n L i f e H i s t o r y Types
F in a l s t a t e s T o tals
S u r v i v a l a t end D ea th i n i n t e r v a l
In sid e O u tsid e In sid e O u ts i d e
s y s te m sy s te m
I n itia l sta te s si so d i do
I n s i d e sy s te m el b S tartin g
E x ist a t ! * p o p u latio n
start 1
O u t s i d e sy s te m eo 1 e f E x istin g
L® im m ig ra n ts
i
1
L_ _
I n s i d e sy s te m bi j rj B irth s
B irth in
p eriod 1
POPULATION
O u t s i d e sy s te m bo 1 m n In fan t
im m i g ra n t s
l i f e h is t o r y quadrant
287
POPULATION
288
T a b le 1 0 .2 : Nine L i f e H i s t o r y Types
MODELLING
F in a l s t a te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u ts i d e
S u r v i v a l D eath i n sy s te m
a t end in terv al
In itia l sta te s si di .o
E x isten ce ei q r s S tartin g
In sid e at start p o p u latio n
sy s tem
B irth in bi t u v B ir th s in
in terv al sy s tem
O utside .0 w X y E x istin g
sy s te m im m ig ra n ts
T o tals E nding D e a th s E m ig ra n ts A ll
p o p u l a t i o n i n sy s te m persons
P O P U L A T I O N M O D E L L IN G
S ta te s of th e System
D iscu ssio n to d a te h a s c o n c e rn e d th e m a c ro -s ta te s o r life -
s ta te s of th e p o p u la tio n d e n o te d in T a b le s 10.1 a n d 10.2 u s in g
le tte r s s u c h a s ’’s i" , s u rv iv a l in sid e th e sy stem a t th e e n d of
th e time in te r v a l. H ow ever, of more in tr in s ic in te r e s t will be
th e w ays in w hich th e p o p u la tio n is d e s c rib e d o r c la ssifie d ,
a n d th e m ovement of in d iv id u a ls b e tw e e n su c h c la s s e s o v e r
th e ir lifetim es.
S et o u t in F ig u re 10.2 a re exam ples of th e k in d of s ta te
to s ta te t r a n s f e r s th a t h a v e b e e n b u ilt in to p o p u latio n m odels.
T r a n s f e r s allowed b y th e lo g ic o f th e c la ssific a tio n s h a v e b ee n
sh a d e d .
289
H
T a b le 1 0 .3 : An E s t i m a t e o f t h e Number o f P e r s o n s i n t h e OPCSL o n g i t u d i n a l o
S tu d y , 1 971 -8 1, i n a C l a s s i f i c a t i o n U sing Nine L i f e H i s t o r y Types Z
2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- O
F in al s t a te s T o tals Ö
E ngland and Wales t-<
I n itia l sta te s S u rvival O u tsid e £
( a l l p o p u latio n s Census D e ath E ngland Z
a r e i n 1000s) 1981 1971-81 and Wales °
4t
A. Agg group transitions B T r a m l t l o n « In a female
d ominant f e r tility model
291
P O P ULATIO N MODELLING
292
P O P U L A T I O N M O D E L L IN G
nu m b er of s ta te s in to w hich th e p o p u la tio n h a d to b e d iv id e d
would b e 2048 w ith o v e r 150,000 s ta te to s ta te tra n s itio n s to
be in c o rp o ra te d in to th e p o p u la tio n m odel. A b r ie f review o f
a lte rn a tiv e s tr a te g ie s f o r d e a lin g w ith th is com binatorial
problem is g iv e n below .
Type of T ra n sfe r
T h e re was c o n sid e ra b le c o n fu sio n in th e 1970s, w hen th e
co n v en tio n al c o h o rt- s u r v iv a l a n d life e x p e c ta n c y m odels w ere
g e n e ra lise d to in c o rp o ra te a n a d d itio n a l s e t o f s ta te s su c h as
g e o g ra p h ic a l re g io n s o r m arital s ta tu s e s , a s to th e re la tio n
sh ip b etw een ty p e o f t r a n s f e r d a ta a n d a p p ro p ria te model (se e
R ees, 1983a fo r d e ta ile d s o u rc e s a n d d is c u s s io n ) . What w as a t
issu e was not th e form o f th e m u ltista te c o h o rt- s u rv iv a l o r
life e x p e c ta n c y m odel, b u t r a t h e r th e w ay in w hich th e m ulti
s ta te tr a n s itio n p ro b a b ilitie s sh o u ld b e c a lc u la te d from d if
fe re n t k in d s o f t r a n s f e r d a ta , a n d how th e in te r p r e ta tio n o f
model o u tp u ts d iffe re d d e p e n d in g on t r a n s f e r d a ta ty p e .
T r a n s f e r s can b e m e asu red in one o f th r e e w ays: e ith e r
as tr a n s itio n s o r a s m oves o r a s la s t m ig ra tio n s. A tr a n s itio n
is a c h a n g e of a p e r s o n !s s ta te from th a t at th e s t a r t of a
time in te rv a l to th a t a t th e e n d . A move is a c h a n g e b etw een
a p r io r s ta te to a follow ing s ta te d u r in g a time in te r v a l. A
la s t m igration is th e c h a n g e b etw een th e c u r r e n t s ta te a t th e
en d of a time in te r v a l a n d th e la s t p re v io u s s ta te th a t was
d if f e r e n t, w ithin th e tim e in te r v a l o f m e a su rem en t. If we have
an ideal life h is to ry d a ta s e t , tr a n s f e r s can b e m e asu red in
an y o f th e s e w ay s. C o n sid e r th e life h is to rie s in F ig u re 10.1.
Betw een s ta te s K2 an d K3 th e r e a re tw o moves (b y p e r s o n s B
an d C) b u t o nly one tr a n s itio n (p e rs o n B) a n d one la st
m igration o r m ig ran t (p e rs o n B ). B etw een s ta te s K1 a n d K2
th e r e a re tw o moves (b y p e rs o n s A a n d D ), one la s t
m igration (p e rs o n A) b u t no tr a n s itio n s b e c a u se p e rs o n A
would be c o u n te d in th e o u ts id e s y s te m -s ta te K2 tr a n s itio n ,
not th a t from K1 to K2. In g e n e ra l, th e r e a re more moves
th a n la s t m ig ratio n s th a n tr a n s itio n s (R e e s , 1984a). T he
num ber of tr a n s itio n s a n d la s t m ig ra tio n s can n e v e r ex ce ed
th e n u m b er o f p e r s o n s in th e sy s te m , b u t th e r e is no su c h
re s tr ic tio n on th e n u m b er o f m oves. U sing b o th movement
d a ta a n d tr a n s itio n d a ta it is p o ssib le to lin k o p e n in g and
clo sin g s to c k s of a p o p u la tio n a n d th u s to dev elo p p o p u la tio n
p ro je c tio n m odels (W illekens a n d D rew e, 1984; R e e s, 1984b).
Life ta b le s can b e c o n s tr u c te d from b o th movement an d t r a n s
itio n p e rs p e c tiv e s (L e d e n t, 1980, L ed en t a n d R ee s, 1980). It
is n o t p o s s ib le , h o w e v e r, to employ la s t m ig ratio n d a ta in
su c h m odels d ire c tly (C o u rg e a u , 1980) u n til th e y h a v e b een
co n v e rte d in to tr a n s itio n d a ta e stim a te s (R e e s , 1984a).
T h e re fo re , in d e v e lo p in g a m u ltista te model o f a p o p
ulation o f i n te r e s t it is n e c e s s a ry to f i r s t a s c e rta in w hat ty p e
o f t r a n s f e r d a ta a re a v a ila b le a n d th e n to a d o p t th e a p p r o p r i
293
P O P U L A T IO N M ODELLING
294
P O P U L A T IO N M O D E L L IN G
295
296 T ab le 1 0 .4: P o p u l a t i o n A ccou nts: S t r u c t u r e and Examples
POPULATION
A. T r a n s i t i o n a c c o u n t s : a l g e b r a i c v a r i a b l e s
F in al s t a t e s
S u r v i v a l a t end i n Death i n i n t e r v a l in
I n itia l sta te s R1 R2 RW R1 R2 RW T otals
MODELLING
e lsl els2 e l so eld l „e ld2 elso
Region i Ke l "
£ae2sl £ae2s2 ae 2 so vae2dl £ae2d2 £ae2do
Region 2 K36 '
j^aeosl l^aeos2 £a eod l j^aeod2 Ka e ° . .
Rest World 0a oa
a a a a a
K e.d l K e .d 2
T o tals K e - 81 K e - S2 K e ‘ S0 K e - d° K e" ‘
a a a a a a a
N otes: K - p e r s o n s ( t r a n s i t i o n s ) ; e “ e x i s t e n c e ; s - s u r v i v a l ; o =■ o u t s i d e w orld
a - age c o h o r t (ATP2)
C. Movement a c c o u n t s : a l g e b r a i c v a r i a b l e s
S t a t e a f t e r move: D e s t i n a t i o n s Death i n
S t a t e b e f o r e move R1 R2 RW in te rv a l T o tals
POPULATION
G r e a t e r London 254.1 188.9 52.6 1.7 49 7.3
R est o f UK 165.1 3 061.0 136.4 11.3 3373.9
R est o f World 65.9 101.9 0 0 167.8
T o tals 485.1 3351.9 189.0 13.0 4039.0
MODELLING
N o tes: Age group t r a n s i t i o n : 20-24 to 2 5 -2 9. A ll f i g u r e s i n 1000s f o r p e r s o n s .
S o u rce: Rees 1984b.
297
P O P U L A T IO N M ODELLING
ATP 1
p e r io d
Pt
x+2 n
t
age t -V :■ ax*n
• a g e g ro u p
' r
I : ax
L'__:
t t+n
tim e —
ATP2 ATP3
p e r io d p e r io d
Pt °t Pt-fn
x+ 2n •
x * 2n
/
// / //
a x+n / //
/ y_
a ge a x+n
a ge
/
x«-n age g roup x+n
< a g e g ro u p
ax s' b //
' o'
t t+n t+n t+ 2 n
tim e — tim e —
ATP4 p e r io d
Pt p t+ n
x+ 2 n
a x+n
age
/ *___I«
'
x+n a g e g ro u p
. / /A
' •
I " I. ax
t+n
tim e —-
K ey
298
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
Lessons
Tn c o n stru c tin g a p ro jectiv e model of a po p u latio n , th e
re s e a rc h e r n eed s to keep in mind th e co n c e p ts th a t have been
d escrib ed in th is section of th e c h a p te r. A cle a r view must be
tak en of th e system b ein g s tu d ie d , its b o u n d arie s an d of th e
p ro c e sse s by which population e n te r s in to and e x its from the
system . T his will be u se fu l even if th e available d a ta a re fa r
from ideal. Most system s can be d e sc rib e d in term s of th e 16
life h isto ry ty p e s o r a re d u c e d se t clearly re la te d to them ,
even if population acco u n ts co v erin g th e whole system a re not
co n stru c te d .
The re s e a rc h e r should a s s e s s which of th e p o ssible cla s
sifications of a population su it h is o r h e r p ro jection problem .
Usually age an d sex will be u se d as many o th e r social p ro
cesses v a ry in fundam ental ways with age and a c ro ss th e
se x e s, alth o u g h in many cases age a c ts only as an interm ed i
ate v ariab le for p a rtic u la r life cycle e v e n ts o r its e ffe c ts are
a tte n tu a te d by c o n tex tu al v a ria b le s su ch as h o using te n u re ,
as C ourgeau (1984) h a s eleg an tly d em o n strated w ith re sp e c t
to m igration. The classificatio n s chosen and th e ir detail will
have a p ro fo u n d effect on model d e sig n .
Knowledge of th e ty p e of tr a n s f e r d ata available is
e ssen tial in model d e sig n . D irect m easurem ent of th e tr a n s
ition p ro b ab ilities fo r d isc re te time in te rv a ls u se d in many
population models is p o ssib le only w ith tra n s itio n d a ta ,
alth o u g h movement d a ta fo r sh o rt time in te rv a ls fo r most
p ro c e sse s will p ro v id e a good approxim ation. C o n v erse ly , only
movement d a ta p ro v id e s d ire c t m easures o f th e num bers of
tra n s f e r s o c c u rrin g - tra n s itio n d a ta will te n d to u n d e r
estim ate th e s e . Last m igration d a ta , a p ro d u c t of a g re a t
many s u rv e y s and c e n s u se s , falls betw een th e tra n sitio n and
movement sto o ls, and is b e s t c o n v e rte d in to th e form er p rio r
to u se in population models.
F inally, it is e sse n tia l t h a t, b efo re an y d ata a re in p u t to
population models, th e re s e a rc h e r th o ro u g h ly u n d e rs ta n d s th e
age-tim e plan involved in it s collection, o r , if s u rv e y o r life
h isto ry d ata for in d iv id u a ls a re u s e d , th e a p p ro p ria te a g e
time plan is employed in p ro d u c in g ta b u la tio n s fo r modelling
w ork.
299
PO P U L A T IO N MODELLING
FUNDAMENTAL MODELS
300
P O P U L A T I O N M O DELLING
A. F o r e x i s t i n g c o h o r t s (ATP2)
F in a l s t a te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u t s i d e sy s tem ( o p e n in g
S u r v i v a l a t end D eath i n i n t e r v a l (em ig ra tio n ) sto ck s)
I n itia l sta te s (s) (d) (o) (•)
Insid e E x isten ce
ed
sy s tem at sta rt (e)
O u ts i d e (im m igration)
od
sy s te m (o )
3.d
T o tals (clo sin g sto ck s) (.)
In sid e B irth in
bs bd bo
system in te rv a l (o)
O u tsid e (im m ig ratio n )
od
s y s te m (o)
i° ° '
T o ta ls (clo sin g sto ck s) (.) V °
POPULATION
V a r i a b l e s - K: a m a t r i x v a r i a b l e ; k : a v e c t o r v a r i a b l e ; k: a s c a l a r v a r i a b l e .
S u b s c r i p t s - a : r e f e r s t o t r a n s i t i o n s t a k i n g p l a c e b e tw e e n an a g e g r o u p a x a t ti m e t and t h e n e x t ,
a x+n, a t ti m e t + n , w h e re n i s b o t h t h e ag e and ti m e i n t e r v a l ( s e e F i g u r e 1 0 . 3 , ATP2, a r e a A ).
0 : r e f e r s t o t r a n s i t i o n s t a k i n g p l a c e b e tw e e n b i r t h , o r ag e 0 , d u r i n g a ti m e i n t e r v a l and t h e f i r s t
ag e g r o u p , a ^ , a t ti m e t + n .
S u p e r s c r i p t s i d e n t i f y s u b m a t r i c e s by l i f e s t a t e c o m b i n a t i o n .
MODELLING
303
T a b le 1 0 .6 : A Demographic M a t r i x C o n n e c tin g Opening and C l o s i n g P o p u l a t i o n S to c k s i n a Time P e r i o d
POPULATION
304
U sing Movement Data
A. F o r e x i s t i n g c o h o r t s (ATP2)
D e stin a tio n s ta te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u t s i d e sy s te m (o p e n in g
MODELLING
O rig in s t a t e s D e stin a tio n s D eath (em ig ra tio n s) sto ck s)
I
I n s i d e sy s te m O rig in s M d e
a a a Pa
O u t s i d e sy s te m ( i m m i g r a t i o n s ) ^a 0 0 i
a
T o tals (c lo sin g sto ck s) P d e t
r aF a a a
N o te: a i s t h e age g ro up l a b e l (ATP2); a > 1.
B. For i n f a n t c o h o r t s (ATP2)
D estin atio n s t a te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u t s i d e sy s te m (o p e n in g
O rig in s t a t e s D estin atio n s D eath (em ig ra tio n s) sto ck s)
I n s i d e sy s te m O rigins M b
o do *0
O u t s i d e sy s te m ( I m m i g r a t i o n s ) *0 0 0
10
T o tals (c lo sin g sto ck s)
d0 eo eo
V a r i a b l e s - M: m a t r i x v a r i a b l e ; d : v e c t o r v a r i a b l e ; i : a s c a l a r v a r i a b l e .
S u b s c r i p t s - a r e f e r s t o movements t a k i n g p l a c e a t age b etw een an age g ro u p a a t ti m e t and t h e n e x t ,
®x+n* a t tim e t + n , w here n i s b o t h t h e age and tim e i n t e r v a l ( s e e F i g u r e 1 0 . 3 , ATP2, a r e a A).
0 r e f e r s t o movements t a k i n g p l a c e b e tw een b i r t h , o r age 0 , d u r i n g a tim e I n t e r v a l and t h e f i r s t age
g r o u p , a ^ , a t tim e t + n .
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
A Projection Model
Given th e se d e fin itio n s, we can now develop population p ro
jection models in c o rp o ra tin g outflow co efficien ts th a t "su rv iv e "
initial population sto ck s fo r both tra n s itio n an d movement
cases. S u rv iv al eq u atio n s a re needed fo r b o th e x istin g and
infan t c o h o rts, and a fe rtility model is n eed ed to g e n e ra te th e
opening sto ck s ( b ir th s ) of th e in fa n t co h ort from th e p o p u
lations at ris k in th e e x istin g c o h o rt. T he models a re
specified with exogeneous in p u ts (im m igrants o r immi
g ra tio n s) .
The closing population sto ck s a re given b y , in th e tr a n
sition c ase,
305
POPULATIO N MODELLING
P0 (t +1) ( 1 0 . A)
( 10. 6 )
9abS = (bob ->_1 ?obS
where th e circum flex in d ic a te s th a t th e column v e c to rs have
been sp re a d out to form a diagonal m atrix so th a t, for
exam ple.
(k /-)-1 1
(1 0 .7 )
1 Kae l -
i
i 0
K e2..
a
Kaen -
The outflow co efficients from th e Table 1 0 .4B exam ple would
b e , for in s ta n c e , 98.5/1184.0 o r .832 for th e flow of s u r
v iv in g s ta y e rs w ithin th e South E ast region and 92.7/1184.0
or .078 for m igrants (s u rv iv in g ) from th e South E ast to th e
R est of B rita in . T hese coefficien ts a re tra n sitio n p ro b a b ilitie s.
If th e Kaes and Ka m atrices in eq u atio n s (1 0 .1 ) and
(10.2) are s u b s titu te d fo r by e x p re ssio n s d e riv e d from
equations (10.5) and (10.6) re s p e c tiv e ly , we obtain p ro jection
equatio n s fo r th e closing population sto ck s in e x istin g co h o rts
ka ' S = I b a e ‘ Ça e s ♦ k a °s
= k , e - ’ C e s + k os (10.8)
JUG
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
ma i j = Ma i j / . 5 (Pa i - + P a - i )
ma i o = Ma i ° / . 5 (Pa i - + Pa - i )
da i = Da i / . 5 (P a i - + Pa - i ) (10.10)
V * = pa i- ■ ( 1 Ma i j + V + Ma io)
+ £ M j i + M,oi (10.11)
■j •
307
PO PULATIO N MODELLING
obtain
where Ma is d efin ed as
( .4l
I m_lj + da 1 + m a 1°) -Ina2^ nl
a
-m 12 ( £ m 2j + d ^ + m.^o) . . . -m n2
d o d d d
j*2
T h en , if we define th e m atrix S a th u s
Sa = Cl + .5 Ma ]_1 [ I - .5 Ma] (10.15)
308
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
diq'-j = Mq ^-J / . 5 (B 1 + P g - 1)
(10.16)
V = v 7-5 (B/ + v i}
Pn' ( t + 1 )
CO
= Cl + .5 ~U
M - ] " 1 [ I - .5 M ] b
-a
+ [ I + .5 M
-a
] -1 ~o
i
309
P O PUL AT IO N MODELLING
X p
P , (q )
~ cl
= -p„
.3
,1 ( q - 1 ) ' f o r age g r o u p s 2 t o A -l
b. a? u
I kQ (a ) ( 10. 20)
-0
a=V
a2
I b (a) (10. 21)
a=a.
310
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
f 1 = K b l" / . 5 (K 61 + K ‘'sl) ( 1 0 .2 3 )
3 3 a a
f 1 = B 1/.5 (P 1- + P - 1 ) ( 1 0 .2 4 )
3 3l 3 3
PAR
~ a = .5 [k- a ' S ' + k- a e ‘ ]
+ k e *i
~a ~a -a -a
= .5 Cl + C e s , D k e *+ .5 k OS (1 0 .2 5 )
~a -a -a
PAR = .5 [p * ' + p *]
a „a ~a
= .5 CCS p +-a.5 Cl~a
+ i.a S] i ] + p
~a Ca -
= .5 [I + S p X] + .25 [ I + S ] i ( 1 0 .2 6 )
- ~a „a — -a "a
kQb ‘ X = z x I2 Fa PARa f ( 1 0 .2 7 )
a = a.
bX = zX i2 PARa f (1 0 .2 8 )
a=al ~
311
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
F lexible Models
In th e p re v io u s se c tio n a m atrix re p re s e n ta tio n o f p o p u latio n
p ro je c tio n m odels was u s e d a s th is is th e com m onest m ethod o f
e x p o sitio n u s e d . H ow ever, th e m atrix model h a s a r a t h e r rig id
s tr u c tu r e fo r many p u r p o s e s , an d an a lte rn a tiv e is to d evelop
a more flex ib le m odelling sy stem tie d to su ita b le so ftw a re . Full
d e ta ils of th e m odelling sy stem a re g iv e n in R ees (1981) fo r
tra n s itio n m odels a n d R ees (1984b) fo r movement m odels. A
b rie f s k e tc h o f th e p rin c ip le s u n d e rly in g th e s e m odelling
sy ste m s is g iv en h e re .
T h e b a sic id e a is to e stim ate each of th e com ponents of
th e a c c o u n ts m atrices (th e in d iv id u a l c ells in T ab le s 10.5 a n d
10.6) s e p a r a te ly , a n d to p ro v id e a s e t o f fo u r ch o ices fo r
each com ponent. T he f ir s t choice is to e n te r flow o r sto c k
d a ta fo r th e co m ponent. T h e se c o n d cho ice is to u se th e flow
o r sto c k d a ta o f th e p re v io u s m odelling p e rio d . T h e th ir d
choice is to e n te r r a te d a ta fo r th e com ponent along w ith a
choice o f a p p ro p ria te p o p u la tio n a t r is k (in itia l o r fin al p o p u
la tio n s , a v e ra g e p o p u la tio n s o r m u ltista te p o p u la tio n s a t r i s k ) .
T he fo u rth choice is to employ th e r a te d a ta fo r th e p re v io u s
p e rio d . T h e re a re also some o th e r ch o ic es w hich e n ab le th e
r e s e a r c h e r to choose b e tw e e n tra n sm issio n m odels (all th o s e in
th e p re v io u s se c tio n a re tra n s m is s io n m odels) a n d adm ission
m odels, a n d b etw een v a rio u s m ethods of a d ju s tin g th e
a c c o u n ts m a tric e s to e n s u r e c o n s is te n c y .
With s u c h m odelling sy ste m s it is p o ssib le to e x p lo re a
v a rie ty of p o ssib le w ays o f clo sin g th e sy stem a n d o f e stim a t
in g th e b a se p e rio d a c c o u n ts m a tric e s (R e e s, 1983b). Many
d iffe re n t k in d s of d a ta can be u s e d .
312
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
313
P O PU L A T IO N MODELLING
REFERENCES
314
POPULATION MODELLING
315
P O PU L A T IO N MODELLING
316
NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
317
T his page intentionally left blank
INDEX
319
D istrib u tio n of I n d u s try Act h isto ric a l m aterialism 61
1945 138 Hoover in d ex of c o n cen tratio n
230
ecological fallacy 24 hum an cap ital th eo ry 264, 265
economic b ase 227 humanism 2, 28
elim in atio n -b y -asp ects model
276 illegitim acy 68, 83, 84, 88
empiricism 1, 18, 26 im m igration 38, 53, 172, 173,
Employment Development 175, 311
Board 171 -c o n tro ls 6, 218
e n e rg y c risis 9 -le g isla tio n 138, 139
e n tro p y maximising models 272 -policy 150
enum eration d is tric t 2, 37-8, Imm igration Act 1971 138, 139
40-1, 46, 50, 52 im m unisation 99, 103, 106
environm ental s tr e s s 19 in d e p e n d e n c e 201, 205, 207,
epidemiologic tra n sitio n model 208
118 in d u s tria l re s e rv e arm y 29
eq u ifin ality 24 in fa n t m ortality 64, 65, 97-119
ex ten d ed family 204, 210, passim 150, 201, 202
213, 215, 216 in fectio u s d isease 105 , 109,
ex tra -m a rita l fe rtility 75, 77, 124
80, 83, 84 see also w a te r-b o rn e
d ise a se s
family b ro k e ra g e 210 inform ation field s 22
family p lan n in g 3, 6, 90, 64, inform ation in te g ra tio n th e o ry
67, 132-55 passim 275
feminism 4, 90 in te rn a l la b o u r m arkets (ILM)
fe rtility 1, 16, 24, 29, 37, 181
95-6 in te rn a l m igration 7 -8 , 39,
-b e h a v io u r 137, 138 194-223, 224-5, 233, 307
-d iffe re n tia ls 4 in te rn a tio n a l m igration 6, 7,
-lev els 6, 138, 144, 148 164-93
-r a te s 310 In te rn a tio n a l P a sse n g e r
- p a tte r n s 14, 22, 27, 30, S u rv e y 177
58-94 in te r-re g io n a l m igration 10,
-s tu d ie s 3 257-70
see also m arital fe rtility in te rv e n in g o p p o rtu n itie s 169
fe rtility tra n s itio n 25 in tr a - u r b a n mobility 270-7
field th e o ry 10, 261 ischaem ic h e a rt d ise ase 97,
FOSDIC (Film O ptical S en sin g 118, 119
Device fo r In p u t to
C om puters) 3, 48, 49 K hym er Rouge 188
Koran 64
G eneral Household S u rv e y 60
g ra n d th e o ry 1, 24 lan d ow n ership 201, 243
g ra v ity models 168, 169, 177, laten cy 120
258, 259 latifu n d io s 201
g reen alliance 241 lead poisoning 123
Lexis diagram s 12, 295
h ig h -lev el manpower 7 life e x p e c ta n cy model 293
histo rical dem ography 95, 96 life h is to ry ty p e s 287-9, 299
320
life table models 12, 300 movement accounts 294, 297
life-w orld 29 m oving-average models 203
limits to grow th 241 m ulti-eollinearity 10, 260
linkage analysis 258 m ulti-dim ensional sealing 10,
Local A uthority Areas (LAAs) 266, 269, 270, 275
37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46 m ulti-regional dem ographic
log linear models 11, 276 accounting system s 26
lum penproletariat 203 m ulti-state tra n sitio n
probabilities 11
marital fertility 4, 25, 26, 75
Markov chain analysis 10, 263
marriage 21-2, 28, 65, 70, National Health (Family
74, 86, 117, 211-2, 313 Planning) Act 1967 138,
mental maps 266-8 139
m icro-theory 1, 21-3 National Health Service 133,
m iddle-range th eo ry 1, 23 143, 144, 289
migrant stock 259 neoplasms 99, 108
migration 1, 6, 8, 14, 16, 22, new spatial division of labour
28, 43, 77, 96, 151-4 (NSDL) 9, 10, 244-8
passim norm ative-deductive theory 20
-flows 9, 18 nu p tiality 68, 70, 77, 84, 88
-information 19
-netw orks 6, 7, 171-5 Offences A gainst the Persons
-p a tte rn s 27, 30 Act 1861 139
-p ro cess 11 oil c risis 144, 225
-stu d ie s 2 OPCS Longitudinal Study 285,
-th e o ry 6, 31 289, 290
see also chain migration O rganisation of African Unity
circu lar migration 183
in tern al migration O verseas Development
in ternational migration Adm inistration 144
in ter-reg io n al m igration O verurbanisation 218
re tu rn migration
stage migration p a rity ra te 107
transm igration path analysis 261, 262, 268
minifundios 201 272
mobilcentric 180 p au perization 200
mobility ra te s 270-2 p eri u rb an isation 236
mobility tran sitio n 150, 224 p ersonal c o n stru c t th eo ry 265
mode of production 2, 29 place p re fe re n ce 242, 244
modernisation 3, 23-4, 61-2, place u tility 10, 19, 151, 265
64, 235 political b a rrie rs 170-1
morbidity 121 Population B ureau 144
mortality 1, 16, 24-6, 95, population dynamics 6, 9, 16,
148-50 137, 285
-g ra d ie n ts 99 population fo recastin g 17
-ra te s 202 population modelling 11, 12,
-stu d ie s 4 284-316
-v ariatio n s 14, 27, 30 Population Panel 142, 143, 144
see also child m ortality, population policies 5, 6, 67,
infant mortality 132-65
321
population s tu d ie s 1, 2, 13, s ta n d a rd is e d m ortality ratio s
95 4, 98, 112, 119
see also B ritish Society of sto p p in g ru le s 274
Population S tudies s tr u c tu r a l equ atio n models
positivism 2, 27, 30 261-2
postcode se c to rs 46 stru c tu ra lism 2, 18, 28
p re s s u re g ro u p s 137 s tru c tu ra tio n 29
prin cip al com ponents an aly sis su b u rb a n isa tio n 9, 225, 227,
260, 275 239, 240
p ro -n a ta lis t 64, 67, 138 su icid e 106, 110, 119, 121
psy ch ic co sts 264 su n b e lt 9, 229, 234, 247
public h ealth 109
th e o ry and methodology 13-34
recession 9, 200, 225, 243 tim e -se rie s te c h n iq u e s 263
re fu g e e s 6, 173, 181-9 to tal fe rtility ra te 65, 68, 88
regional secto ral specialisation Town an d C o u n try Planning
(RSS) 9, 10, 244-8 Act 1947 138
reg re ssio n an aly sis 27, 259, tra n sitio n acco u n ts 294, 296
267, 272 tra n sm ig ra tio n 194
re g re ssio n models 168, 169, T re a ty of Rome 177
175, 177, 189 tre n d su rfa c e an aly sis 271
re p a tria tio n 181, 183
resid e n tia l mobility 10 u n d e rb o u n d in g 229, 239, 240
resid e n tia l p re fe re n c e 10 u n d e rc o u n t 55, 56
resid e n tia l se a rc h 233-4 underem ploym ent 195, 216
resid e n tia l s tr e s s 11, 272, 273 u n d e r-e n u m e ratio n 59
re tu r n m igration 4 , 7 , 90, U niversal D eclaration of
176, 216-7, 235 Human R ig h ts 171
ris k fa c to rs 120-5 u rb a n -b ia s 8, 148, 203
Royal Commission on th e u rb a n job lo tte ry 8, 209
D istrib u tio n of In d u stria l u rb a n la b o u r m arket 206-8
Population 1940 138 u rb a n tra n sitio n 194, 195-200
Royal Commision on Population
1944 138 w a te r-b o rn e d iseases 125
w estern isatio n 61, 64
work p erm its 170
SASPAC 3, 46 World Bank 137
school d is tr ic ts 3 world economy 78, 199, 200,
second homes 242 225
secularism 4, 90 World F e rtility S u rv ey 60
sem antic d ifferen tial tec h n iq u e World Population C onference
265, 275 133
sh ift-s h a re an aly sis 245
single equation models 259-61
SMSAs (S ta n d a rd M etropolitan
S tatistical A reas) 3
small a re a s ta tis tic s (SAS) 3,
43, 46
social p h y sic s 6, 168, 169
social w elfare 9
stag e m igration 204, 205
322