Accumulate: Growth Momentum Continues!
Accumulate: Growth Momentum Continues!
Accumulate: Growth Momentum Continues!
Accumulate
Change in estimates
FY22E FY23E
Particulars (Rs mn)
New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%)
Revenue (Rs mn) 240,053 254,157 (5.5) 297,251 297,891 (0.2)
EBITDA (Rs mn) 53,483 56,829 (5.9) 66,071 65,951 0.2
EBITDA margin (%) 22.3 22.4 -10 bps 22.2 22.1 10 bps
PAT (Rs mn) 35,038 37,696 (7.1) 44,467 44,340 0.3
EPS (Rs) 36.5 39.3 (7.1) 46.4 46.2 0.3
Source: Company, DART
We have decreased our FY22E revenue estimates to factor in lockdowns and store
closures across majority of states. Further we have revised EBITDA estimates to
factor in RM inflation. However, we have maintained FY23E EPS estimates as we
believe that the demand would normalize once the markets re-open.
(60)
(40)
(20)
20
40
60
(60)
(40)
(20)
Jun-16
Sep-16 Q4FY18 10.0 4.5 Q4FY18 14.7
Dec-16 Q1FY19 13 3.0 Q1FY19 15.1
Mar-17
Volume Growth
Q1FY20 17.0 1.0 Q1FY20 16.3
Sep-18
Dec-18 Q2FY20 -5.0 15.0 Q2FY20 9.4
Mar-19 Q3FY20 -6.9 10.0 Q3FY20 3.0
Trend in Sales Growth (%)
Jun-19
Q4FY20 -9.21.0 Q4FY20 -7.1
Sep-19
Dec-19 Q1FY21 -9.8 -38.0 Q1FY21
Mar-20 -42.8
Q2FY21 -4.6 11.0 Q2FY21 5.9
Price/mix change
Jun-20
Sep-20 Q3FY21 -5.2 33.0 Q3FY21 25.2
3
20
40
50
60
80
90
30
70
25
30
10
15
38
39
40
41
45
46
47
42
43
44
Mar-15
Jul-15 Q4FY18 Q4FY18 43.2
20 18.7
Nov-15 Q1FY19 Q1FY19 43.2
21.2
Mar-16
Q2FY19 Q2FY19 39.9
18.3
Jul-16
Covid cases is a key risk to APL in short term.
Mar-17
Q4FY19 19.7 Q4FY19 41.6
Jul-17 17.8
Nov-17 Q1FY20 Q1FY20 43.6
22.7
Jul-18
Q3FY20 Q3FY20 43.0
Nov-18
21.9
Trend in Gross Margin (%)
Jul-19
Q1FY21 Q1FY21 44.7
16.6
Nov-19
Mar-20 Q2FY21 Q2FY21 44.4
23.6
Nov-20
Q4FY21 43.2
Asian Paints
Mar-21 Q4FY21
19.8
Management is well equipped to tackle the second Covid wave. However,
uncertainty in India as well as some of International markets due to the rise in
Profit and Loss Account
(Rs Mn) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E
Revenue 202,112 217,127 240,053 297,251
Total Expense 160,495 168,572 186,570 231,180
COGS 113,835 120,972 134,613 164,870
Employees Cost 13,662 15,408 16,024 20,328
Other expenses 32,998 32,192 35,933 45,982
EBIDTA 41,617 48,555 53,483 66,071
Depreciation 7,805 7,913 8,504 9,042
EBIT 33,812 40,642 44,979 57,029
Interest 1,023 916 1,002 1,110
Other Income 3,043 3,031 3,514 4,151
Exc. / E.O. items (50) 0 0 0
EBT 35,783 42,757 47,492 60,070
Tax 8,549 10,976 12,274 15,395
RPAT 27,052 31,392 35,038 44,467
Minority Interest 183 389 181 208
Profit/Loss share of associates 0 0 0 0
APAT 27,101 31,392 35,038 44,467
Balance Sheet
(Rs Mn) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital 959 959 959 959
Minority Interest 4,030 4,229 4,410 4,618
Reserves & Surplus 100,340 127,104 141,492 159,683
Net Worth 101,299 128,063 142,451 160,642
Total Debt 3,401 3,402 3,401 3,401
Net Deferred Tax Liability 4,430 4,150 4,260 4,260
Total Capital Employed 113,160 139,844 154,522 172,921
Applications of Funds
Net Block 62,699 58,576 57,772 56,230
CWIP 1,400 1,820 1,820 1,820
Investments 15,050 14,680 14,680 14,680
Current Assets, Loans & Advances 82,240 122,908 132,789 165,552
Inventories 33,890 37,980 37,663 46,653
Receivables 17,950 26,020 19,320 23,526
Cash and Bank Balances 7,830 6,110 21,353 37,129
Loans and Advances 14,607 14,755 16,186 19,743
Other Current Assets 2,843 5,372 5,595 5,829
Cash Flow
(Rs Mn) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E
CFO 31,253 37,736 44,596 50,661
CFI (2,690) (1,210) (7,700) (7,500)
CFF (25,173) (38,246) (21,652) (27,386)
FCFF 27,483 35,196 36,896 43,161
Opening Cash 4,440 7,830 6,110 21,353
Closing Cash 7,830 6,110 21,353 37,129
E – Estimates
1,710
1,420
May-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
May-21
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747
Our Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers, DowJones and Bloomberg (DCML <GO>)