How long will fossil fuel

last

[DOCUMENT SUBTITLE]
ADMIN
Executive Summary
The key reserves for the global energy resource are crude oil, coal and gas. A crucial and
uncertain question must be addressed, namely the scale of fossil fuel assets and uncertainty
"when non-renewable energy is to decrease." Over the last ten years, unlike the 1970s, when the
oil crisis came as a result of the Middle East political crisis, the world has confronted unstable oil
prices. Now that the developing countries no longer constitute the main user of oil and fossil
fuels, the issue is growing more as the demand for oil increases. Growing energy demand in line
with economic growth and population dominance lead China, India, Brazil, and South East Asia.
There is an increased demand for energy due to the increase in the global population. This rise is
putting our future at risk. What are we going to do if fossil fuels go unavailable? What resources
of energy can we be dependent on after that?

Table of Contents
Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................1
Introduction...............................................................................................................................................3
When are we going to run out of oil?.......................................................................................................4
When are we going to run-out of coal and gas?......................................................................................5
Literature Review......................................................................................................................................5
Methodology..............................................................................................................................................5
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................6
References..................................................................................................................................................7
Introduction
Fossil combustible is formed millions of years ago from the remnants of alive organisms,
preserved and buried in deposits. These residues have been compressed and fossilized over time,
generating carbon-rich energy resources. Subsequently, it takes too long for fossil fuels to be
produced, we cannot wait before more is formed. We also consume these fuels at an
unbelievable pace, which means that reserves run fast. It's not because they are running out that
makes them such an awful energy source.

Fossil fuels generate a high level of CO2 and other toxic gasses, which are caused by global
warming. Before we start, it is perhaps most important to note if the world's current fossil fuel
resources are to be burned just 20-30 percent of the IPCC's top 2 grade limit for "catastrophic"
global warming. The belief that climate change now foresees the 'end of the fossil fuel era' that
has begun to take root in significant climate political places is based on this report.

Some social movements and ecological economists have long claimed this to be the normative
consequence. The potential reserves of energy in trillions, Btoe, are presented in Figure#1[1]
according to the year. Obviously, without taking stock of what potential reserves we are using
fossil fuels, we should mind the endpoints shown here in figure#1 below. There are dangerously
near endpoints:
 Figure 1: Energy reserves

Global GDP growth is forecast to average 3.4 percent between 2017 and 2040 in accordance
with the 2019 report [2]. Worldwide energy consumption in different parts of Asia will rise by
1/3 to 2040, mainly driven by increased transport consumption. It is predicted that all our fossil
fuels will be deployed soon if we carry on burning fossil fuel at our current pace.

When are we going to run out of oil?

Figure 2: Oil ratio

The present dominance of OPEC, which most Central East kingdoms dominate, is shown in
figure#2. Over the next three years, however, the US supply is expected to cover 80% of global
demand growth. With record exports "eating" into the market share of OPEC, the United States
will turn into an "oil nation”. Our oil well run out sooner than other fossil fuels due to demand
mainly driven by the transport sector. Actually, it is projected that our established oil deposits
will end soon.
When are we going to run-out of coal and gas?
Gas amounted to 23% of overall energy requirements but rose at a rate of 4.6% in 2018. At 23
percent or 6,091 TWh, gas was the second-largest share of total power production [4].
Considering the existing production amount of gas and the existing identified natural gas
reserves, natural gas reserves are already valued at about 52.8 years. The moment the oil runs out
in 2052 will remain with gas and coal. However, to increase our gas output to fill the oil energy
gap, these reserves only will give us eight more years, which will lead us to 2060. It is essential
to understand that carbon dioxide emissions are affecting global warming.

In 2018, global coal demand rose by 0.7% [5]. Coal's share in the overall generation of electricity
stood at 10116 TWh, when it was responsible for 38 percent of total global electricity
production. Coal is oldest fuel we have, and the formation of vegetation took a few hundred
million years. The United States, China and India continue to mine coal heavily. How long is
coal going to last? It may take 150 years to substitute oil and gas with new technologies.

Literature Review
The views on world reserves of fossil fuels vary, and it is not possible to determine when fossil
fuels are supplied to the world exactly. According to York University's Director of Biochemistry,
one-day fossil fuels will be ablaze and global demand will not be achieved; when that will
happen, the only thing is unthinkable. "Global oil supply can only satisfy demand before global
oil output peaks between 2013 and 2020," claims Salameh (2003) [6]. Seifritz (2003) has shown
equal bell bend is most recent option in forecasting the expiration of fossil-fuel age by
formalizing the fossil-fuel amount depletion curves,that can become very unequal. Edigera and
his colleagues have shown Turkey. They found that Turkey has already achieved its peak in
fossil fuel production and showed that Turkey's fossil fuel production would be decreased by
2038 [7].

Methodology
This section illustrates the method to measure the period of fossil fuel depletion. The most
prominent way to calculate the fossil fuel depletion by using the updated Donald Class formula
(Klass, 1998). Klass believed that the fossil fuel consumption rate was consistent, and in his
model, he employed a compound rate formula [8]. The procedure uses a new formula with
constant compound rates. Eq. (1) shows over time gross consumption of fossil fuels.
 (Eq#1)

g=annual fossil fuel consumption growth value, we may derive Eqs. (1) and (2) for the
calculation "n" from Eqs. (3):

(Eq#3)

Most investigators estimate the time for the depletion of reserves by suggesting steady
production values. WEO, calculates an oil ratio of 39 to 43 years for 2006, 164 years for coal.

Conclusion
The fossil fuel consumption rate is not constantly growing; it continues to grow. The reason is
that the world's population also continues to grow. Increased demand for fossil fuel is also
growing as the operation of fossil fuels is needed. We consume more than 11 billion tons of oil
as fuel a year worldwide. Naturally, the quantity of oil consumed is growing every year.
Nevertheless, scientists have estimated that the fossil oil deposit would soon end. Scientists also
expect that gas will be a short replacement for oil in the future when the world is running out of
oil. And if that happens, then less than a decade after the oil stock is consumed, the gas deposit
will run out. So what happens next after the useful fossil fuel is empty? How are we to offset the
need for fuel for automobiles and machinery that normally use such fuel? The solution is
straightforward, find alternative renewable energy sources.
References
[1] Earthbuddies. (5 December,2017). "When Will The Earth Actually Run Out Of Fossil Fuel?",
https://earthbuddies.net/when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuel/ [accessed: 8 May, 2021]
[2] World Energy Outlook, "World Energy Outlook – International Energy
Agency",https://www.iea.org/topics/world-energy-outlook [accessed: 8 May, 2021]
[3] IAGS. "The Future of Oil", http://www.iags.org/futureofoil.html [accessed: 8 May, 2021]
[4] Better Meets Reality. (12 April, 2021). "How Much Natural Gas Is Left In The World, &
When Will We Run Out?",https://bettermeetsreality.com/how-much-natural-gas-is-left-in-the-
world-when-will-we-run-out/ [accessed: 8 May, 2021]
[5] S&P Global. "Global coal demand up 0.7% in 2018, largely due to Asia: IEA",
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/032619-global-coal-
demand-up-07-in-2018-largely-due-to-asia-iea [accessed: 8 May, 2021]
[6] Salameh, M.G., 2003. Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global
energy gap in the 21st century? Applied Energy 75, 33–42.

[7] Seifritz, W., 2003. An endogenous technological learning formulation for fossil fuel
resources. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28, 1293–1298.
[8] Klass, D.L., 1998. Biomass for Renewable Energy, Fuels, and Chemicals. Academic Press,
San Diego.