Bias Has Presented The Banks With Billions in Losses
Bias Has Presented The Banks With Billions in Losses
Bias Has Presented The Banks With Billions in Losses
The availability bias has an established seat at the corporate board’s table, too.
Board members discuss what management has submitted – usually quarterly
figures – instead of more important things, such as a clever move by the
competition, a slump in employee motivation or an unexpected change in
customer behaviour. They tend not to discuss what’s not on the agenda. In
addition, people prefer information that is easy to obtain, be it economic data or
recipes. They make decisions based on this information rather than on more
relevant but harder to obtain information – often with disastrous results. For
example, we have known for ten years that the so-called Black–Scholes formula
for the pricing of derivative financial products does not work. But we don’t have
another solution, so we carry on with an incorrect tool. It is as if you were in a
foreign city without a map, and then pulled out one for your home town and simply
used that. We prefer wrong information to no information. Thus, the availability
bias has presented the banks with billions in losses.
What was it that Frank Sinatra sang? ‘Oh, my heart is beating wildly/And it’s all
because you’re here/When I’m not near the girl I love/I love the girl I’m near.’ A
perfect example of the availability bias. Fend it off by spending time with people
who think differently than you think – people whose experiences and expertise
are different than yours. We require others’ input to overcome the availability bias.
See also Ambiguity Aversion (ch. 80); Illusion of Attention (ch. 88); Association Bias
(ch. 48); Feature-Positive Effect (ch. 95); Confirmation Bias (ch. 7–8); Contrast Effect (ch.
10); Neglect of Probability (ch. 26)