Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Presentation: October 14, 2020
Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Presentation: October 14, 2020
Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Presentation: October 14, 2020
Highlights
Record quarterly diluted EPS Asset Management net revenues of $2.77 billion
Highest quarterly ROE since 2010 Strong results in Equity investments
#1 in Announced and Completed M&A2 Consumer & Wealth Management net revenues of $1.49 billion
#1 in Equity and equity-related offerings2 Record Consumer banking, strength in Wealth management
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Macro Perspectives
Tighter Credit
U.S. Stocks Higher on Interest Rates Volumes & Volatility
Spreads in
Recovery Optimism Low for Longer Remain Elevated
U.S. and Europe
S&P 500: +8% in 3Q20 U.S. HY Z-Spread: -90bps QoQ 10-Yr Yields flat QoQ Avg. VIX: -25% QoQ | +62% YoY
MSCI World: +8% in 3Q20 EUR HY Z-Spread: -40bps QoQ UST: 0.68% | UK Gilt: 0.23% NYSE Volumes: +44% YoY
2
2020 and 2021 estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) growth per Goldman Sachs Research
Financial Overview
Financial Results Financial Overview Highlights
vs.
$ in millions, vs. vs. 3Q20 3Q19 3Q20 net revenues were significantly higher YoY
except per share amounts 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 YTD YTD
— Higher net revenues across all segments, including significant increases in Asset
Investment Banking $ 1,969 -26% 7% $ 6,810 23% Management and Global Markets
3Q20 provision for credit losses was slightly lower YoY (and meaningfully lower QoQ)
Global Markets 4,553 -37% 29% 16,892 49%
— Reserve reductions from paydowns on loans
Asset Management 2,768 32% 71% 4,773 -20% — Partially offset by reserve increases from individual impairments related to wholesale loans
and growth in credit card loans
Consumer & Wealth Management 1,491 10% 13% 4,344 14% 3Q20 operating expenses increased YoY
— Higher compensation and benefits expenses (reflecting significantly higher net revenues)
Net revenues $ 10,781 -19% 30% $ 32,819 23%
— Slightly lower non-compensation expenses
Provision for credit losses 278 -83% -4% 2,805 N.M. 3Q20 diluted EPS more than doubled YoY, while ROE increased nearly 2x
Operating expenses 5,954 -43% 6% 22,826 30% 3Q20 YTD litigation expenses increased the efficiency ratio by 9.6pp
3Q20
Net earnings to common $ 3,483 N.M. 94% $ 4,803 -22%
Litigation Impact YTD
Diluted EPS $ 9.68 N.M. 102% $ 13.34 -18% Diluted EPS $ -8.77
Efficiency Ratio3 55.2% -23.1pp -12.3pp 69.6% 3.4pp Efficiency Ratio +9.6pp
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Investment Banking
Financial Results Investment Banking Highlights
vs.
vs. vs. 3Q20 3Q19 3Q20 net revenues were higher YoY
$ in millions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 YTD YTD
— Financial advisory net revenues were significantly lower, reflecting a decrease in industry-
Financial advisory $ 507 -26% -27% $ 1,974 -16% wide completed mergers and acquisitions transactions
— Underwriting net revenues were significantly higher, due to significantly higher net revenues
Equity underwriting 856 -19% 134% 2,291 108% in Equity underwriting, primarily reflecting a significant increase in industry-wide initial public
offerings, and higher net revenues in Debt underwriting, driven by asset-backed and
investment-grade activity
Debt underwriting 571 -42% 9% 2,144 41%
— Corporate lending net revenues were significantly lower, primarily reflecting lower results for
relationship lending activities, including the impact of changes in credit spreads on hedges
Underwriting 1,427 -30% 60% 4,435 69%
3Q20 provision for credit losses was higher YoY, reflecting higher impairments, partially offset
by reserve reductions from paydowns on corporate lines of credit
Corporate lending 35 N.M. -86% 401 -30%
Overall backlog3 increased significantly QoQ, across advisory, equity underwriting and debt
Net revenues 1,969 -26% 7% 6,810 23% underwriting
— Equities net revenues were higher, reflecting significantly higher intermediation net
FICC financing 332 -26% -9% 1,213 22% revenues, partially offset by significantly lower financing net revenues
3Q20 ROE more than doubled YoY
FICC 2,502 -41% 49% 9,706 73%
Net revenues 4,553 -37% 29% 16,892 49% Global Markets Net Revenues ($ in millions)
Provision for credit losses -15 N.M. N.M. 236 N.M. $7,176
3Q20 net revenues were significantly higher YoY 3Q20 net revenues were higher YoY
— FICC intermediation net revenues were significantly higher, reflecting significantly higher net — Equities intermediation net revenues were significantly higher, reflecting significantly higher
revenues in interest rate products, mortgages, commodities, and credit products, while net net revenues in derivatives, partially offset by lower net revenues in cash products
revenues in currencies were essentially unchanged
— Equities financing net revenues were significantly lower, due to higher net funding costs,
— FICC financing net revenues were lower, reflecting lower net revenues in structured credit including the impact of lower yields on the firm’s global core liquid assets
financing and repurchase agreements
3Q20 operating environment was characterized by continued strong client activity, as volatility
3Q20 operating environment was characterized by a decline in client volumes following a strong remained elevated and global equity prices were generally higher compared to 2Q20
1H20, while interest rates remained low and credit spreads tightened during the quarter
$4,235 $2,941
$449
$742
$2,194
$2,969 $2,051
$1,864
$432 $2,502 $1,711 $666
$585
$332
$1,679 $1,769 $784
$3,786 $732
$364 $387 $2,199
$2,537
$2,170 $1,528 $1,466
$1,315 $1,382 $1,080 $979
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20
Intermediation Financing Intermediation Financing
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Asset Management
Financial Results Asset Management Highlights
vs.
vs. vs. 3Q20 3Q19 3Q20 net revenues were significantly higher YoY
$ in millions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 YTD YTD
— Equity investments net revenues reflected net gains from investments in public equities in
Management and other fees $ 728 6% 10% $ 2,052 6% 3Q20 compared with net losses in 3Q19, partially offset by significantly lower net gains from
investments in private equities vs. 3Q19
o Public: 3Q20 ~$780 million; 3Q19 ~$(270) million
Incentive fees 28 -18% 17% 216 154%
o Private: 3Q20 ~$640 million; 3Q19 ~$865 million
— Lending and debt investments net revenues were significantly higher, due to higher net
Equity investments 1,423 54% 139% 2,325 -20% gains, reflecting tighter corporate credit spreads during the quarter
— Management and other fees from institutional and third-party distribution asset management
Lending and debt investments 589 28% 73% 180 -83% clients were higher, reflecting the impact of higher average AUS, partially offset by a lower
average effective management fee due to shifts in the mix of client assets and strategies
Net revenues 2,768 32% 71% 4,773 -20% 3Q20 operating expenses were higher YoY, primarily reflecting higher compensation and
benefits expenses
2017– 2013 or
Earlier Asia
Present
32% 32%
33% Americas
52%
2014 – By Accounting Classification By Geography
2016 EMEA
35% 16% Loans
at FV
13%
Natural Resources
Financials Healthcare & Utilities Asia
Loans at 20%
amortized Americas
By Sector 32% 23% 18% 8% 7% 7% 5% Debt cost 42% 47%
Investments EMEA
at FV 45% 33%
TMT Real Estate Other Industrials
(Mixed Use 6%, Office 3%,
Multifamily 2%, Other 7%)
In addition, the firm’s consolidated investment entities5 have a carrying value of $21 billion,
funded with liabilities of approximately $12 billion, substantially all of which were nonrecourse
Industrials TMT Healthcare Natural
Resources
By Geography By Asset Class & Utilities
(Net of Financing) (Net of Financing)
Senior By Sector 34% 15% 14% 13% 8% 8% 4%4%
Asia Office Housing Industrials Retail
17%
Return on average common equity 6.0% 12.9pp - pp 1.1% -2.9pp Management and other fees Incentive fees Private banking and lending Consumer banking 9
Firmwide Assets Under Supervision
Firmwide Assets Under Supervision3,4 Assets Under Supervision Highlights3,4
By Segment
vs. vs. Firmwide AUS decreased $21 billion during the quarter to $2.04 trillion, including Asset
$ in billions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 2Q20 3Q19 Management AUS decreasing $38 billion and Consumer & Wealth Management AUS
Asset Management $ 1,461 $ 1,499 $ 1,232 -3% 19% increasing $17 billion
— Net market appreciation of $51 billion, primarily in equity and fixed income assets
Consumer & Wealth Management 575 558 530 3% 8%
— Liquidity products net outflows of $90 billion, following strong net inflows in 1H20
Firmwide AUS $ 2,036 $ 2,057 $ 1,762 -1% 16%
— Long-term net inflows of $18 billion, driven by fixed income assets
By Asset Class
vs. vs.
$ in billions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 2Q20 3Q19
Alternative investments $ 182 $ 179 $ 182 2% -%
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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Net Interest Income and Loans
Investment Banking Global Markets Asset Management Consumer & Wealth Management Total Loans $ 112 $ 117 $ 105
— $3.20 billion for wholesale loans, $1.13 billion for consumer loans
Provision for credit losses of $278 million in 3Q20, down from $1.59 billion in 2Q20
3Q20 net charge-offs of $340 million for an annualized net charge-off rate of 1.3%, up 40 bps QoQ
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Expenses
Financial Results Expense Highlights
vs. 3Q20 total operating expenses increased YoY
vs. vs. 3Q20 3Q19
$ in millions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 YTD YTD — Higher compensation and benefits expenses (reflecting significantly higher net revenues)
Compensation and benefits $ 3,117 -30% 14% $ 10,830 16% — Slightly lower non-compensation expenses, which included:
o Higher technology expenses and brokerage, clearing, exchange and distribution fees
Market development 70 -21% -59% 312 -42%
3Q20 YTD effective income tax rate was 27.6%, down from 39.9% for the first half of 2020,
primarily due to a decrease in the impact of non-deductible litigation in the first nine months of
Communications and technology 340 -1% 20% 1,006 17% 2020 compared with the first half of 2020
Effective Tax Rate 27.6% 6.9pp 3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 3Q19 YTD 3Q20 YTD
Impact of Litigation Impact of Litigation
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Capital and Balance Sheet
Capital3,4 Capital and Balance Sheet Highlights
$ in billions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 Both Standardized and Advanced CET1 ratios increased QoQ
Common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital $ 77.8 $ 74.7 $ 75.7 — Increase in CET1 capital reflected net earnings in excess of dividends
— Decrease in RWAs reflected lower credit RWAs, reflecting reduced exposure, and lower
Standardized RWAs $ 535 $ 563 $ 557 market RWAs, reflecting decreased market volatility
Standardized CET1 capital ratio 14.5% 13.3% 13.6% Returned $448 million of capital in common stock dividends
— The firm did not repurchase any shares in 3Q20 and will not in 4Q203
Advanced RWAs $ 600 $ 628 $ 566
The firm’s balance sheet decreased $10 billion QoQ
Advanced CET1 capital ratio 13.0% 11.9% 13.4% — Maintained highly liquid balance sheet as GCLA3 averaged $302 billion4 for 3Q20
Supplementary leverage ratio 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% BVPS increased 3.6% QoQ and 4.9% YoY, driven by net earnings
$ in billions 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 In millions, except per share amounts 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19
Total assets $ 1,132 $ 1,142 $ 1,007 Basic shares3 356.0 355.8 369.3
Deposits $ 261 $ 269 $ 183 Book value per common share $ 229.49 $ 221.55 $ 218.82
Unsecured long-term borrowings $ 214 $ 223 $ 217 Tangible book value per common share1 $ 215.54 $ 208.08 $ 205.59
Shareholders’ equity $ 93 $ 90 $ 92
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Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking
statements are not historical facts, but instead represent only the firm’s beliefs regarding future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside of the firm’s
control. It is possible that the firm’s actual results, financial condition and liquidity may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results, financial condition and liquidity indicated in
these statements. For information about some of the risks and important factors that could affect the firm’s future results, financial condition and liquidity and the forward-looking
statements below, see “Risk Factors” in Part II, Item 1A of the firm’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2020 and in Part I, Item 1A of the firm’s Annual
Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019.
Information regarding the firm’s assets under supervision, capital ratios, risk-weighted assets, supplementary leverage ratio, balance sheet data and global core liquid assets (GCLA)
consists of preliminary estimates. These estimates are forward-looking statements and are subject to change, possibly materially, as the firm completes its financial statements.
Statements regarding (i) estimated GDP growth, (ii) the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the firm’s business, results, financial position and liquidity, (iii) the timing, profitability,
benefits and other prospective aspects of business initiatives and the achievability of medium- and long-term targets and goals, (iv) the future state of the firm’s liquidity and regulatory
capital ratios, (v) the firm’s prospective capital distributions (including dividends), (vi) the firm’s future effective income tax rate, and (vii) the firm’s investment banking transaction
backlog are forward-looking statements. Statements regarding estimated GDP growth are subject to the risk that actual GDP growth may differ, possibly materially, due to, among other
things, changes in general economic conditions. Statements about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the firm’s business, results, financial position and liquidity are subject to
the risk that the actual impact may differ, possibly materially, from what is currently expected. Statements about the timing, profitability, benefits and other prospective aspects of
business initiatives and the achievability of medium and long-term targets and goals are based on the firm’s current expectations regarding our ability to implement these initiatives and
achieve these targets and goals and may change, possibly materially, from what is currently expected. Statements about the future state of the firm’s liquidity and regulatory capital
ratios, as well as its prospective capital distributions, are subject to the risk that the firm’s actual liquidity, regulatory capital ratios and capital distributions may differ, possibly materially,
from what is currently expected. Statements about the firm’s future effective income tax rate are subject to the risk that the firm’s future effective income tax rate may differ from the
anticipated rate indicated, possibly materially, due to, among other things, changes in the firm’s earnings mix or profitability, the entities in which the firm generates profits and the
assumptions made in forecasting the firm’s expected tax rate, and potential future guidance from the U.S. IRS. Statements about the firm’s investment banking transaction backlog are
subject to the risk that transactions may be modified or not completed at all and associated net revenues may not be realized or may be materially less than those currently expected.
Important factors that could have such a result include, for underwriting transactions, a decline or weakness in general economic conditions, an outbreak of hostilities, volatility in the
securities markets or an adverse development with respect to the issuer of the securities and, for financial advisory transactions, a decline in the securities markets, an inability to obtain
adequate financing, an adverse development with respect to a party to the transaction or a failure to obtain a required regulatory approval.
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Footnotes
1. Annualized return on average common shareholders’ equity (ROE) is calculated by dividing annualized net earnings applicable to common shareholders by average monthly common shareholders’ equity. Annualized return
on average tangible common shareholders’ equity (ROTE) is calculated by dividing annualized net earnings applicable to common shareholders by average monthly tangible common shareholders’ equity. Tangible common
shareholders’ equity is calculated as total shareholders’ equity less preferred stock, goodwill and identifiable intangible assets. Tangible book value per common share (TBVPS) is calculated by dividing tangible common
shareholders’ equity by basic shares. Management believes that tangible common shareholders’ equity and TBVPS are meaningful because they are measures that the firm and investors use to assess capital adequacy and
that ROTE is meaningful because it measures the performance of businesses consistently, whether they were acquired or developed internally. Tangible common shareholders’ equity, ROTE and TBVPS are non-GAAP
measures and may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other companies.
The table below presents a reconciliation of average and ending common shareholders’ equity to average and ending tangible common shareholders’ equity:
AVERAGE FOR THE AS OF
THREE MONTHS ENDED NINE MONTHS ENDED
Unaudited, $ in millions SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 JUNE 30, 2020 SEPTEMBER 30, 2019
Total shareholders’ equity $ 91,004 $ 91,068 $ 92,900 $ 90,029 $ 92,012
Preferred stock (11,203) (11,203) (11,203) (11,203) (11,203)
Common shareholders’ equity 79,801 79,865 81,697 78,826 80,809
Goodwill and identifiable intangible assets (4,835) (4,825) (4,965) (4,792) (4,886)
Tangible common shareholders’ equity $ 74,966 $ 75,040 $ 76,732 $ 74,034 $ 75,923
3. For information about the following items, see the referenced sections in Part I, Item 2 “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the firm’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q
for the period ended June 30, 2020: (i) investment banking transaction backlog – see “Results of Operations – Investment Banking” (ii) assets under supervision – see “Results of Operations – Assets Under Supervision” (iii)
efficiency ratio – see “Results of Operations – Operating Expenses” (iv) basic shares – see “Balance Sheet and Funding Sources – Balance Sheet Analysis and Metrics” (v) share repurchase program – see “Equity Capital
Management and Regulatory Capital – Equity Capital Management” and (vi) global core liquid assets – see “Risk Management – Liquidity Risk Management.”
For information about risk-based capital ratios and the supplementary leverage ratio, see Note 20 “Regulation and Capital Adequacy” in Part I, Item 1 “Financial Statements (Unaudited)” in the firm’s Quarterly Report on Form
10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2020.
4. Represents a preliminary estimate for the third quarter of 2020 and may be revised in the firm’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2020.
5. Includes consolidated investment entities, substantially all of which related to entities engaged in real estate investment activities. These assets are generally accounted for at historical cost less depreciation.
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