Fault Tree Diagram
Fault Tree Diagram
Fault Tree Diagram
The economic, technological and organizational errors attributable long term effects.
to the root causes of the Bhopal disaster of the 2nd and 3rd of 쐌 A vast history of events (since 1976)
leading up to the event had gone
December 1984 are identified. In particular, the technical causes unheeded by the Corporation, and
of the failure from a design and operational perspective are to this day they have not claimed full
responsibility for any wrongdoing; nor
highlighted. An investigation is then carried out to determine does anyone sit in jail for the ‘murder’ of
the major consequences of the failure. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) so many.
쐌 Reports issued months prior to the
and Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs) are then used to model incident by scientists within Union
the causes, and determine the probability of occurrence, of the Carbide Corp. warned of the possibility
of an accident almost identical to that
accident. The innovative aspect of this work is that whereas such which happened – reports which were
techniques are usually employed at an equipment level they are ignored and were never delivered to
senior staff.
used here to analyse a catastrophic event. Recommendations The aim of the study reported here was
regarding emergency and contingency planning are then provided. to produce an objective Fault Tree which
would help to identify what could be
It is concluded that, in future multi-national company (MNC)
learned from this terrible incident and
projects, designs of installations need to be peer reviewed and to show that it was indeed ‘an accident
waiting to happen’, by –
more stringent environmental, health and safety considerations
쐌 Discovering the technical causes of the
adopted, and that governments need to be aware of the failure from a design and operations
requirement for segregation of hazardous operations from facilities perspective.
and adjacent domestic populations. 쐌 Identifying the major consequences of
the failure – then and today.
쐌 Using a Fault Tree Analysis and
Keywords: Bhopal, Fault Tree Analysis, Reliability Block Diagrams Reliability Block Diagram analysis to
determine the probability of such an
occurrence happening.
Ashraf W. Ramesh 쐌 Recreating, using the Minimal Cut Set
Labib, Champaneri, School method, a ‘new’ Fault Tree Analysis.
Portsmouth of Engineering, 쐌 Setting recommendations regarding
Business Science and emergency and contingency planning.
School, Design, Glasgow
University of Caledonian
Portsmouth University BACKGROUND
In 1969, the multi-national corporation
(MNC) Union Carbide (UC) established a
INTRODUCTION This particular gas then enters the lungs, small Indian subsidiary – Union Carbide
where it reacts with bodily fluids, filling the India Ltd (UCIL) – to manufacture
In 1984 Bhopal city, located in the centre
lungs and drowning a person ‘from the pesticides at Bhopal in India. The Indian
of India with a population of approximately
inside’. This was a disaster the town might plant offered competitive advantages
1.4 million, became one of the best known
eventually (over a long period of time and because of its low labour costs, access
places in the world – but for all the wrong
with help) have come to terms with, were it to an established and rapidly growing
reasons. On December 3rd , when the
not for the following facts: market and lower operating costs. In
town’s people slept, the Union Carbide
addition UCIL was able to exploit India’s
Pesticide Plant , about five miles away, 쐌 The deaths did not stop at 3,000 – they lax environmental and safety regulations
unleashed ‘hell on earth’. Poisonous gases are reputed to total 20,000 to date (see as the country strived to attract large
were released into the atmosphere and earlier) – and to this day approximately MNCs for its developing industrialisation
killed some 3,000 people (up-to-date 120,000 people continue to suffer from
programme. Until 1979 UCIL imported
figures indicate 8,000 fatalities at the the resulting serious ill health problems.
Methyl Isocyanate (MIC), a key component
time and a further 12,000 since). These 쐌 ‘It was an accident waiting to happen’ in the production of pesticides, from its
gases included one used in early World – comparisons with the operation of
parent company, UC. The new Bhopal
Wars that attacks the ‘wet’ parts of the similar plants in US and India indicate
facility was advertised as being designed
body, such as the eyes, mouth and throat. that the Bhopal plant was neglected to
and built on the basis of twenty years of
DISCUSSION
Figure 3 Fault Tree of incorrect management decisions
UCIL had allowed safety standards and
maintenance at the plant to deteriorate
to cataclysmic levels even though the
D - Poor maintenance of
plant potential for such an incident had been
highlighted two years prior in a UC internal
report. Clearly UCIL had dropped the
operating and safety standards of the
Bhopal facility well below those maintained
in the near identical facility in West
Virginia. The fact that UCIL was able to
do this was due in part to lacking safety
J - Poor maintenance
and environmental laws and regulations
19 -Defective 20-Substitute procedures on plant 21 - which were not enforced by the Indian
blow down engineering Defective government. Immediately after the
valve in MIC solution used gauges not disaster in India, UC, while maintaining no
tank 610 “Jumper line” repaired knowledge of the cause of the accident
in India, shut down the MIC plant in West
Virginia to allow five million dollars worth
of changes to its safety devices to be
accomplished.
22 -Slip 23 - No CONCLUSION
blind checking
process of related The Indian government, although keen to
omitted lines attract foreign investment, needed to factor
in basic safety requirements for its citizens.
During future MNC projects, designs of
installations need to be peer reviewed and
Figure 4 Fault Tree of poor maintenance
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
We are grateful to John Unwin, Paul
23
McGibney, and Mazen Al-Shanfari, who
4 2 2 1
helped to collect the data for the case
1 0 9
22 study. We are also grateful to Ms Rebecca
Harris for the proof reading and editing of
the manuscript.
Figure 6 Combined Reliability Diagram for the disaster
REFERENCES
more stringent environmental, health and adjacent domestic populations. In the [1] Weir D, The Bhopal Syndrome: Pesticides,
safety considerations adopted. case of Bhopal the local communities Environment and Health. San Francisco
and “squatter camps” should have been 1987
During any future plant builds, standards
relocated prior to any company being [2] Cassels J, The Uncertain Promise of Law:
of materials and equipment used should
given permission to start mass production Lessons from Bhopal. University of Toronto
reflect those used in Western countries.
of inherently dangerous substances. Press 1993
MNC need to be aware that reduction in
safety standards as a means of improving A means of guarding operating processes, [3] Chouhan T, The Unfolding of the Bhopal
profit margins is not an option in light of the along with habitual safety checking, needs Disaster, Journal of Loss Prevention in the
Process Industries, Vol.18, pp 205–208. 2005
disaster at Bhopal. to be implemented and established as a
corner stone of any safety culture within
Governments need to be aware of
hazardous plants like Bhopal. The safety
the requirement for segregation of
culture of any such plants needs to be
hazardous operations from facilities and
developed so that questioning attitudes Table 1 continued on page 52
2 – Safety training of staff Original No. of training days = 18 months x 30 days = 540 = (523/540 + 17) / 43800 21.4 × 10ˉ 6
reduced
Reduction in training days during 5 year period = 523
No .of actual training days = 17
No. of hours for 5 year period = 24 x 365 x 5 = 43800
3 – Poor Health and Safety Assumption – health and safety culture dependent upon quality = 9.6 x 10ˉ 6 +21.4 x 10ˉ 6 31.1 × 10ˉ 6
Culture and training of staff
Pf value = event 1 + 2
4 – Stainless Steel piping Guess – No. of new repairs performed = 1000 = 1000/25000 + 1000 40 × 10ˉ 3
replaced by carbon steel
No. of repairs performed since opening of plant = 25 000
5 – No computerized warning Guess – No of failures detected by staff = 20000 = 2000/20000 + 2000 90.9 × 10ˉ 3
systems – human detection
No. of failures missed during inspections = 2000
6 – No unit storage tank Guess: No unit storage tank fitted to check purity therefore = 260/1825 142.4 × 10ˉ 3
assuming check performed once a week during 5 years 52 x 5
= 260
System would fail once ever week day over 5 year period =
365x5 = 1825
7 – Ineffective water spray Guess: System would fail to suppress gases due to design error = (1/ 5000) /1825 109.6 × 10ˉ 9
system associated with height in MIC area which represented area only
1/5000 of plant
System failed in MIC area on day over 5 year period of MIC
production = 365x5 = 1825
8 – Quality of safety devices Assumptions: reduced quality of safety devices resulted in 50% 16 × 10ˉ 3
reduced increase failure rate
Guess Previous Pf value = 8 x 10ˉ ³
9 – Quantity of safety devices Assumption: number of devices Reduced by 25% therefore Pf 10 × 10ˉ 3
reduced value increased by 25%
Guess: Previous Pf value = 8 x 10ˉ ³
10 – No redundancy (flare Two built in USA plant, 1 installed in India. Item under (1/2) / 43800 11.4 × 10ˉ 6
tower) maintenance for
Duration of use of single flare tower over 5 years = 24 x 365 x5 =
43800 hours
11 – Incapable of dealing with System not designed to deal with volume of gases. Therefore 2.5/43800 57.1 × 10ˉ 6
quantity of gasest the system failed to handle this volume of gas for 2.5 hours (time
of disaster)
Duration in hours system operating over 5 years = 24 x 365 x5 =
43800 hours
12 – Refrigeration unit shut Unit shut down for past year = 365 days 365/1825 + 365 166.3 × 10ˉ 3
down
MIC production over last 5 years = 365 x 5 = 1825
13 – Plant manning levels Overall 20% reduction of staff in 4 years (20/100)/ 1460 136.9 × 10ˉ 6
reduced
Duration = 365 x 4 = 1460 days
14 – Reserve MIC storage Assumption: MIC storage tank used for 50% of time (50/100) / 1825 273.9 × 10ˉ 6
tank allowed to be used
Duration of use = 5 years = 1825 days
15 – Plant being operated Assumption: 10% of plant being operated outside design (10/100)/1825 54.8 × 10ˉ 6
outside design parameters parameters for 5 years.
16 – No emergency planning No Emergency planning in place – operation failed on day 1/1825 0.55 × 10ˉ 3
procedures
5 years of MIC production at plant = 5 x 365 =1825
17 – Lack of notification No Emergency planning in place – operation failed on day 1/1825 0.55 × 10ˉ 3
of incident by plant
management
5 years of MIC production at plant = 5 x 365 =1825
19 – Defective blow down Total number of days Defective in past 5 years = 12 12/1825 6.6 × 10ˉ 3
valve in MIC tank
Total number of days in 5 years = 1825
20 – Substitute engineering No of times procedure used = 150 150/ 450 +150 250 × 10ˉ 3
solution used “Jumper line”
Number of flushing operation = 450
21 – Defective gauges not Guess: No. of gauges defective or still in use = 1320 1320/1320 + 6000 180.3 × 10ˉ 3
repaired
Total number of gauges on plant = 6000
22 – Slip blind process Guess: No of procedures requiring slip blinds but not used = 50 50/220 + 50 185.1 × 10ˉ 3
omitted
Total number of procedures requiring slip blinds = 220
23 – No checking of related Guess: No. of times procedure required during maintenance in 300/15000 + 300 19.6 × 10ˉ 3
lines 5 years = 300
Total number of maintenance procedures in 5 years = 15 000
Table 1 Estimated ‘Probabilities of Failure’ for contributory events’ (MIC production assumed to have commenced in 1979, i.e. five years before disaster)