NDSU EXTENSION

2020
EC1090 
(Revised January 2020)

Plotting a Course
This publication is found at:
www.ag.ndsu.edu/pubs/agecon/market/ec1090.pdf
Short-term Planning for the future can be a
very frustrating process but one
plans that affect the farm or ranch
business for more than one year.

and Long-term that typically pays high dividends.

For most farm and ranch managers,
Both individual yearly price
forecasts and long-term average
For more crop economics information: Agricultural developing realistic commodity prices are presented.
price expectations is one of the
www.ag.ndsu.edu/cropeconomics Planning Prices most difficult and complex tasks The long-term crop planning prices
of the planning process. With the were derived from annual average

for North Dakota downturn in commodity prices,

planning is more critical than ever.
price forecasts made by the Food
and Agricultural Policy Research

For more livestock economics information: Institute (FAPRI). The U.S. price

2020
To ease the burden of forecasting
planning prices, NDSU Extension estimates reported in the 2019
Baseline Briefing Paper, November
www.ag.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics has prepared a summary of projected
short- and long-term planning prices. 2019, were adjusted using historical
Ron Haugen relationships to reflect North Dakota
Farm Management Specialist The estimated short-term planning farm gate prices.
prices should be used as a guide in
For more farm management information: Tim Petry
Livestock Economist
setting price expectations for 2020 Historical prices are reported for
production. These planning prices reference. This information can be
www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement Frayne Olson can be used for preparing annual a valuable reminder of past price
Crops Economist enterprise budgets and annual fluctuations and trends. Prices
whole-farm cash-flow projections. for 2019 are averages to date.

The short-term planning prices The historical crop prices

should not be used for planning were obtained from the U.S.
capital purchases or expansion Department of Agriculture’s
alternatives that extend beyond the National Agricultural Statistics
next production year. Unfortunately, Service (NASS) “2019 North Dakota
the use of short-term planning prices Agricultural Statistics Service
to make long-term decisions is publication No. 88.” Historical
common. This practice is not milk prices are from FAPRI.
recommended because current Historical feeder steer prices
supply/demand conditions rarely are from the USDA Agricultural
For more information on this and other topics, see www.ag.ndsu.edu
continue for long periods of time and Marketing Service (AMS) for Kist
NDSU encourages you to use and share this content, but please do so under the conditions of our Creative Commons license.
You may copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this work as long as you give full attribution, don’t use the work for commercial purposes are a poor indicator of future trends. Livestock Auction, Mandan, N.D.
and share your resulting work similarly. For more information, visit www.ag.ndsu.edu/agcomm/creative-commons.
Historical slaughter steer, cull cow,
County commissions, North Dakota State University and U.S. Department of Agriculture cooperating. NDSU does not discriminate in its programs and activities on the basis of age,
color, gender expression/identity, genetic information, marital status, national origin, participation in lawful off-campus activity, physical or mental disability, pregnancy, public assistance status, The long-term planning prices are hog and sheep prices are from
race, religion, sex, sexual orientation, spousal relationship to current employee, or veteran status, as applicable. Direct inquiries to Vice Provost for Title IX/ADA Coordinator, Old Main 201,
NDSU Main Campus, 701-231-7708, ndsu.eoaa.ndsu.edu. This publication will be made available in alternative formats for people with disabilities upon request, 701-231-7881.
North Dakota State University valuable for evaluating alternative NASS and AMS.
1M-1-08; 1M-1-09; 1M-1-10; 1M-1-11; 1M-1-12; 1M-1-13; 1M-1-14; 1M-1-15; 800-1-16; 800-1-17; 800-1-18; 500-1-19; 300-1-20 Fargo, North Dakota
 HISTORIC and PROJECTED PLANNING PRICES for NORTH DAKOTA

CROPS Spring Durum Feed Malting Oil Non-oil Winter Dry Dry Alfafa Other
Marketing Year Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Barley Sunflower Sunflower Corn Soybeans Canola Flaxseed Wheat Beans Peas Lentils Hay Hay
(bu) (bu) (bu) (bu) (bu) (cwt) (cwt) (bu) (bu) (cwt) (bu) (bu) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (ton) (ton)

2014-15 5.42 8.99 2.42 3.06 5.53 19.50 31.50 3.34 9.49 16.90 11.80 4.47 28.20 12.20 23.50 85.00 58.00
2015-16 4.59 6.62 2.00 2.70 5.09 19.10 27.30 3.28 8.49 15.60 8.95 3.69 24.00 13.50 28.90 82.00 59.00
2016-17 4.57 5.66 2.25 2.62 4.78 17.10 23.20 3.01 8.97 16.80 8.00 3.41 27.90 11.20 29.40 81.00 63.00
2017-18 5.72 6.00 2.55 2.94 4.59 17.10 21.70 3.04 8.88 17.60 9.53 4.14 24.10 12.00 23.50 105.00 77.00
2018-19 5.12 4.83 2.41 3.13 4.43 17.10 23.40 3.32 7.98 15.80 9.89 5.05 22.90 10.50 14.80 91.00 68.00
Historic avg. (2014-2018) 5.08 6.42 2.33 2.89 4.88 17.98 25.42 3.20 8.76 16.54 9.63 4.15 25.42 11.88 24.02 88.80 65.00
2019-20 (to date)* 4.27 4.59 2.31 3.15 4.37 15.53** N.A. 3.71 7.90 14.28 8.95 3.86 23.49 8.22** 13.17** 87.71 67.29
2020-21 short-term 5.00 5.50 2.00 2.40 3.30 17.50 24.00 3.35 8.20 16.50 9.00 4.25 27.00 10.00 14.00 90.00 68.00
2021-22 5.21 5.65 2.04 2.65 4.24 16.04 23.10 3.25 7.98 15.02 8.58 4.48 23.94 8.38 20.95 92.00 67.00
2022-23 5.23 5.67 2.06 2.67 4.27 16.14 23.24 3.28 8.03 15.10 8.63 4.50 24.09 8.43 21.08 95.00 70.00
2023-24 5.31 5.75 2.07 2.69 4.30 16.14 23.24 3.30 8.03 15.10 8.63 4.56 24.09 8.43 21.08 93.00 68.00
2024-25 5.34 5.79 2.08 2.70 4.32 16.36 23.56 3.31 8.14 15.31 8.75 4.59 24.42 8.55 21.38 90.00 70.00
2025-26 5.38 5.83 2.08 2.70 4.32 16.04 23.10 3.31 7.98 15.02 8.58 4.63 23.94 8.38 20.95 91.00 71.00
Projected long-term avg. (2021-2025) 5.291 5.742 2.073 2.684 4.295 16.146 23.257 3.298 8.039 15.1110 8.6311 4.5512 24.1013 8.4314 21.0915 92.20 69.20

* average of beginning 1 Spring wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. spring wheat = U.S. wheat x 1.07 6 Oil sunflower price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. oil sunflower = U.S. soybean x 1.87 11 Flaxseed price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. flaxseed = U.S. soybean x 1.0
of marketing year to
December 2019 2 Durum wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship: U.S. spring wheat x 1.16 7 Non-oil sunflower price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. non-oil sunflower = N.D. oil sunflower x 1.44 12 Winter wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. winter wheat = U.S. wheat x 0.92
** average of local cash bids 3 Oats price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. oats = N.D. feed barley x 0.77 8 Corn price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. corn = U.S. corn x 0.92 13 Dry bean price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. dry bean = N.D. soybean x 3.0
Note: FAPRI projections 4 Feed barley price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. feed barley = U.S. corn x 0.75 9 Soybean price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. soybean = U.S. soybean x 0.93 14 Dry pea price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. dry pea = N.D. soybean x 1.05
are updated in
January 2020 5 Malting barley price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. malting barley = N.D. feed barley x 1.6 10 Canola price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. canola = U.S. soybean x 1.75 15 Lentil price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. lentil = N.D. dry pea x 2.5

BEEF HOGS SHEEP MILK

5-Area Direct
400-500 lb. 500-600 lb. 600-700 lb. 700-800 lb. 800-900 lb. 1,100-1,700 lb. Slaughter 250 lb. Slaughter 105-140 lb. 60-90 lb.
Year* Steers Steers Steers Steers Steers Cull Cows Steers Year Slaughter Hogs Ewes Slaughter Lambs Feeder Lambs All Milk
(cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt)
(cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt)
Fourth quarter Fourth quarter Fourth quarter First quarter First quarter Annual Annual
prices prices prices prices prices prices prices

2014 323.38 285.52 259.17 220.47 202.00 104.20 154.56 2014 73.00 38.00 152.00 200.00 23.60
2015 234.07 206.55 188.32 161.62 150.26 99.00 148.12 2015 52.20 54.00 146.00 188.00 17.10
2016 151.26 137.89 128.09 133.67 126.58 74.30 120.85 2016 46.10 48.00 142.00 180.00 16.20
2017 194.23 177.01 166.22 151.40 141.74 68.80 121.52 2017 50.00 58.00 152.00 188.00 17.60
2018 187.67 169.21 157.80 144.95 137.42 62.60 117.12 2018 47.00 45.00 141.00 177.00 16.20
Historic avg. (2014-2018) 218.12 195.24 179.92 162.42 151.60 81.78 132.43 Historic avg. (2014-2018) 53.66 48.60 146.60 186.60 18.14
2019 (to date) 168.41 156.01 145.11 143.00** 138.00** 62.50 117.00 2019 to date 49.33 44.00 154.00 177.00 18.55
2020 short-term 185.00 168.00 158.00 148.00** 143.00** 65.00 120.00 2020 short-term 55.00 50.00 156.00 180.00 20.00
2021 187.00 170.00 160.00 150.00** 145.00** 70.00 125.00 2021 60.00 52.00 158.00 185.00 21.00
2022 192.00 175.00 165.00 155.00** 150.00** 73.00 127.00 2022 62.00 55.00 160.00 190.00 20.00
2023 195.00 178.00 168.00 158.00** 153.00** 75.00 130.00 2023 60.00 60.00 165.00 195.00 22.00
2024 200.00 180.00 170.00 160.00** 155.00** 78.00 133.00 2024 61.00 62.00 162.00 192.00 24.00
2025 205.00 185.00 165.00 165.00** 160.00** 80.00 135.00 2025 63.00 65.00 163.00 193.00 22.00
Projected long-term avg. (2021-25) 195.80 177.60 165.60 157.60 152.60 75.20 130.00 Projected long-term avg. (2021-2025) 61.20 58.80 161.60 191.00 21.80
* 400-500, 500-600 and 600-700 lb. weights are fourth-quarter prices. 700-800 and 800-900 lb. weights are first-quarter prices of the next year.
To estimate heifer prices, subtract $15/cwt for 400-500, 500-600 and 600-700 lb. animals and subtract $6/cwt for 700-800 and 800-900 lb. animals.
Cull cow and slaughter steer prices are calendar year averages.
** Projected for the first quarter of the next year.