DCF Valuation Model
DCF Valuation Model
DCF Valuation Model
Operating Expenses:
Research and development (5,132) (10,649) (13,420) (16,311) (20,989) (21,975) (23,008) (24,090)
General and administrative (7,408) (7,940) (8,599) (9,313) (10,086) (10,923) (11,829) (12,811)
Marketing (2,682) (2,290) (2,886) (3,508) (4,514) (4,726) (4,948) (5,181)
Total Operating Expenses (15,221) (20,879) (24,905) (29,131) (35,588) (37,624) (39,785) (42,081)
Operating Cash Flow 103,909 71,842 89,165 104,195 124,510 140,711 158,313 175,823
NetWorking Capital (12,502) 8,297 (4,149) (5,601) (19,004) (7,537) (8,072) (8,758)
Capital Expenditures (2,107) (5,121) (6,196) (7,039) (39,210) (9,083) (10,287) (11,346)
Free Cash Flow 89,299 75,018 78,821 91,556 66,296 124,090 139,954 155,719
TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY TERMINAL VALUE MULTIPLE: 7.00x SENSITIVITY - DISCOUNT RATE VS. TERMINAL VALUE:
USD NTD
Cost of Factory (898) (31,214) Exchange Ratio - NTD/USD 34.8
Sources of Funds:
Headquarters (Cash) (371) (12,896) Tax Shield Assumptions:
Loans (418) (14,530) Interest Rate on Loans = Cost of Debt 3.06%
Retained Earnings (109) (3,789) Tax Rate 15.00%
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GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
* Yr. 2002 - 2004 Revenue Projections Taken From Bloomberg. Yr. 2005 - 2007 Growth Rates Are Slight Modifications Of Prof. Damodaran's Industry Growth Rate.
** Yr. 2004 Working Capital Includes Cash Used For Manufacturing Facility Construction. Yrs. 2004 - 2007 Includes Interest Payments On Debt Financing For Facility.
*** Yr. 2004 CAPEX Includes Manufacturing Facility Investment.
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Average 5.48%
Formulas:
a. Call Price = [S * NormDist(d1)] - [E * e(-rt) * NormDist(d2)]
b. d1 = [ln(S/E) + t * (r + .5(Var))] / (Var * t).5
c. d2 = d1 - (Var * t).5
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Variance Analysis
Date Closing Price Daily Returns Date Closing Price Daily Returns Date Closing Price Daily Returns
Date Closing Price Daily Returns Date Closing Price Daily Returns Date Closing Price Daily Returns
Date Closing Price Daily Returns Date Closing Price Daily Returns Date Closing Price Daily Returns
90.00x
$5.00
80.00x
70.00x
$4.00
60.00x
$3.00 50.00x
40.00x
$2.00
30.00x
20.00x
$1.00
10.00x
$0.00 0.00x
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (E) 2003 (E) 2004 (E) 1998 19
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
25.00x
20.00x
15.00x
10.00x
5.00x
0.00x
1999 2000 2001
10.00x
5.00x
0.00x
1999 2000 2001
2004 (E)
3.15
14.66
Price/Earnings Analysis
100.00x
90.00x
80.00x
70.00x
60.00x
50.00x
40.00x
30.00x
20.00x
10.00x
0.00x
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (E) 2003 (E) 2004 (E)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Comparable Ratio Analyses
TSMC UMC
1999 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001
RISK RATIOS:
Current Ratio 2.261 1.965 2.124 0.893 2.298 2.919
Quick Ratio 1.623 1.389 1.620 0.734 1.955 2.522
Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities Ratio 1.810 2.531 1.878 0.655 1.572 1.038
Accounts Receivable Turnover 7.603 8.232 5.787 8.135 9.147 4.857
Days Receiveable Outstanding 48.007 44.338 63.075 44.869 39.902 75.149
Inventory Turnover 9.342 9.018 8.157 8.037 8.291 7.338
Days Inventory Outstanding 39.070 40.475 44.748 45.415 21.862 49.740
Accounts Payable Turnover 18.818 16.188 18.024 N/A 3.177 3.015
Days Payable Outstanding 19.396 22.547 20.251 N/A 114.890 121.052
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.363 0.216 0.190 0.301 0.183 0.259
Liabilities Assets Ratio 0.320 0.293 0.243 0.459 0.260 0.286
Interest Coverage Ratio 9.535 24.519 4.431 0.599 21.757 -0.104
Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio 0.758 1.015 0.766 0.344 1.168 0.984
Operating Cash Flow to Capital Expenditures Ratio 0.736 0.882 1.007 0.383 0.770 0.919
PROFITABILITY RATIOS:
Profit Margin 0.339 0.404 0.133 0.659 0.469 -0.023
Total Asset Turnover 0.470 0.548 0.341 0.272 0.505 0.221
Return On Assets 0.159 0.222 0.046 0.179 0.237 -0.005
Capital Structure Leverage Ratio 1.584 1.463 1.368 1.423 1.096 1.112
Return On Common Equity 0.230 0.314 0.054 0.120 0.243 -0.011
Selling and Administrative Expenses 0.037 0.045 0.063 0.500 0.038 0.096
Accounts Receivable Turnover 7.603 8.232 5.787 8.135 9.147 4.857
Inventory Turnover 9.342 9.018 8.157 8.037 8.291 7.338
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.696 0.842 0.508 0.976 1.116 0.420
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Consolidated Balance Sheet
(In $NT Millions)
CURRENT ASSETS:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 29,517.7 38,840.2 37,556.3
Pledged time deposits 3,161.0 - -
Short-term investments 965.4 2,351.6 1,398.1
Receivables - net 13,322.0 27,055.5 16,452.2
Receivable from related parties 340.9 948.7 494.7
Inventories - net 7,104.0 12,785.7 9,828.3
Deferred income tax assets - net 2,616.6 8,178.0 2,350.1
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 2,630.0 3,034.6 2,721.4
Total Current Assets 59,657.6 93,194.3 70,801.1
OTHER ASSETS:
Rental Assets - 625.6 -
Deferred income tax assets - net 7,006.7 6,629.8 16,245.8
Deferred charges - net 2,380.8 3,335.7 3,769.8
Refundable deposits 59.4 979.1 784.1
Assests leased to others - - 555.1
Miscellaneous 106.4 28.3 37.4
Total Other Assets 9,553.3 11,598.5 21,392.2
LONG-TERM LIABILITIES:
Long-term bank loans 22,743.5 23,339.4 22,399.3
Long-term bonds payable 20,000.0 29,000.0 24,000.0
Total Long-term liabilities 42,743.5 52,339.4 46,399.3
OTHER LIABILITIES:
Accrued pension cost 1,013.8 1,511.3 1,856.6
Deferred gain on sale - leaseback - 434.2 268.2
Lease obligation payable 4.4 3.3
Guarantee deposits 5,188.7 7,097.4 7,212.7
Others - - 141.5
Total Other Liabilities 6,206.9 9,046.2 9,479.0
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY:
Capital Stock - $10 par value
Issued Preferred - 13,000.0 13,000.0
Issued Common 85,208.8 116,893.7 168,325.6
Suscribed Capital 13,118.0 - -
Capital Surplus 23,951.4 57,089.0 57,128.4
Retained Earnings 31,382.4 75,121.0 37,507.5
Unrealized loss on long-term investments - (71.6) -
Cumulative translation adjustments (1,090.1) (278.4) 1,228.7
Total Shareholders' Equity 152,570.5 261,753.7 277,190.2
OPERATING EXPENSES
Research and development 2,314.0 3,090.8 5,131.5 10,649.0
General and administrative 2,128.2 2,845.3 7,408.1 7,939.9
Marketing 767.5 1,861.6 2,681.6 2,290.1
Total Operating Expenses 5,209.7### 7,797.7### 15,221.2### 20,879.0
NON-OPERATING INCOME
Gain on sales of short-term investments - net 11.9 48.6 1,060.9 1,619.1
Interest 1,111.9 1,114.5 1,679.7 1,486.7
Royalty Income - - - 1,301.6
Insurance compensation - net - 184.6 1,623.8 860.8
Premium income-net 8.3 63.8 640.5 234.7
Gain on sales of long-term investments - net 781.6 67.8 15.1 105.4
Technical service income - - 138.5 55.1
Gain on sales of property, plant, and equipment 3.3 4.0 62.9 52.4
Reversal of allowance for losses on shoter-term investment - net - 140.1 0.7 -
Foreign exchange gain - net - - 828.0 -
Other 59.6 58.9 177.8 759.8
Total Non-Operating Income 1,976.6### 1,682.3### 6,227.9### 6,475.6
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Consolidated Statements of Income
(In $NT Millions)
NON-OPERATING EXPENSES
Investments loss recognized by equity method - net 1,400.0 288.5 187.2 3,959.0
Interest 1,191.7 2,417.0 2,717.0 3,144.1
Foreign exchange loss - net 259.5 119.1 - 695.6
Loss on sales of property, plant, and equipment 4.4 164.4 114.7 235.6
Amortization of issuance costs of bonds 143.7 114.8 32.7 12.5
Premium expenses - net - 86.8 108.1 -
Permanent loss on long-term investments 5.8 31.6 - -
Provision for loss in short-term investments 121.9 - - -
Other 99.9 101.8 461.4 420.1
Total Non-Operating Expenses 3,226.9### 3,324.0### 3,621.1### 8,466.9
NET INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS (10,983.6) 18,645.8 9,322.5 (1,283.9)
BEGINNING BALANCE - CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 21,855.5 10,871.9 29,517.7 38,840.2
ENDING BALANCE - CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 10,871.9 29,517.7 38,840.2 37,556.3
TSMC Taiwanese Market Volume
500,000
450,000
400,000
Volume
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Jan-98 Jun-98 Nov-98 Apr-99 Sep-99 Feb-00 Jul-00 Dec-00 May-01 Oct-01 Mar-02 Aug-02 Jan-03
30,000,000
Volume
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Jan-98 Jun-98 Nov-98 Apr-99 Sep-99 Feb-00 Jul-00 Dec-00 May-01 Oct-01 Mar-02 Aug-02 Jan-03