Theories of Urban Land Use and their Application to the

Christchurch Property Market

by John McDonagh, Lecturer in Property Studies
Lincoln University

(First published as a series of articles in the Property and Land Economy Institute of New
Zealand Newsletter, May – August 1997 and based on an essay written for a masters subject in
1995)

INTRODUCTION

Contrary to popular opinion, our cities are not primarily formed by the actions of local body
politicians or town planners, but rather it is the aggregate activity of property developers of all
types, that ultimately determine the form a city will take.

Multiple, and often conflicting factors influence developers decisions and therefore ultimately
influence the land use distribution within a city. These factors can generally be categorised as:
demographic, economic, sociological, legal and political. Of these demographic, economic and
sociological factors tend to drive demand. Economic factors again are employed as the decision
making tools choosing between various alternatives. Whereas the legal and political factors will
establish the framework within which the development takes place and will attempt to
influence, for the benefit of society in general, the direction of that development.

The interrelationship of factors under the previous five headings is extremely complex and one
factor cannot be adequately viewed in isolation from the others. One "holistic" technique that
can be used to analyse this interaction, is to study historic urban land use throughout the world
in an attempt to see if any consistent patterns of development have occurred. If such urban land
use patterns can be determined, and by deduction, their causes identified, this will help in
predicting the future shape of cities in a similar set of circumstances.

In this essay the main theories that seek to explain city land use patterns will be analysed and
critiqued followed by an attempt to relate these theories to the existing situation in Christchurch.
From this, predictions will be made regarding where future growth will occur in Christchurch
for the different types of real estate usage.

THEORIES OF URBAN LAND USE

Burgess

An early theory designed to explain the land use structures of cities was presented by Ernest
Burgess in 1923. Burgess developed a concentric ring approach theorising that a city expands
from its original centre in a series of concentric zones. This was a development of Von
Thunen’s explanation of rural land uses and values, put forward in the early part of the last
century, and based upon the concept of a medieval village design
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It was assumed that the central district would be used for intensive high rent uses such as office
buildings, department stores and other retailers, financial institutions, hotels, theatres etc. The
ring immediately surrounding the central district would be made up of a variety of uses
including low rent workers residences for those employed in the central area as well as
manufacturing, wholesaling, storage and similar activities which are related directly or indirectly
to those activities carried out in the central zone.

Rings further out in the hierarchy would in turn be devoted to low cost wage earner housing,
middle class housing, and on the rural urban fringe higher cost upper income housing.

A later development of the concentric ring theory states the central zone is the "100% spot" and
again includes the principal stores, office buildings, banks, theatres and hotels. It is the focal
point of the social, civic and commercial life of the city.

The surrounding area is termed a transitional zone, this is made up of older homes - some
converted to flats, and other high density housing upon which factories and other business
establishments are encroaching. To a large degree this area surrounding the CBD is blighted by
the process of change and may be a high crime area. In some cities this can be slum type
accommodation or other interim low rent type uses. According to Ratcliff what characterises
this transitional commercial fringe of the CBD are "pawn shops, food stores, pool halls, beer
gardens, strip joints, automotive supply shops, shoe repairers, cheap photographers and cheap
restaurants".

Beyond the central zone and the transitional zone is the inner ring of residential uses. The
people living here are the wage workers of the central zone and the transitional zone. Their
houses are generally small and relatively high density or they can also be former expensive
housing now converted to flats or apartments. The inhabitants prefer to live in this location
because of lower rents and values and because they are within easy commuting distance of the
CBD and their places of work. There is a high percentage of rental accommodation and a
relatively transient population.

Further out are again concentric rings of progressively higher valued housing.

Industry displaced from the inner core or transitional area does not encroach on these residential
rings but instead leapfrogs out to urban periphery "greenfields" sites, usually alongside
important transport routes.

In the concentric ring theory, the basis for the higher value properties being further out from the
centre is that high income earners can better afford the accompanying commuting expenses,
lower housing densities and larger houses. In addition the closeness to "green" rural land uses
and the consequent distance away from industrial and commercial uses will give a greater
"amenity" value (and thus economic value) to those properties.
Another development of this theory is the "ripple effect" that maintains land uses spread out
from a central point of high intensity (or density) to progressively lower intensity in a similar
manner to ripples from a stone dropped in a pond.
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One of the major problems with this theory is that it fails to recognise the significant impact of
transportation routes, commuting time, topographical features and competing satellite urban
centres on the distribution of land uses.

Traffic routes are recognised in the concentric ring theory as attracting lower cost housing to
their proximity, due to the poorer amenity value caused by traffic volume and also by the ease
with which the lower income occupiers could utilise public transport, but this tends to
understate their effect.

One of the reasons may be that the concentric ring theory was developed prior to the widespread
use of the motor car and its subsequent effects were not yet apparent. Since that time, while
commuting cost may still be a minor concern to high income earners, commuting time and
convenience are not. The traffic congestion that has developed in some cities, along with the
apparent abhorrence for public transport by higher income earners has meant that for large cities
inner suburbs have retained some of their attraction and value ahead of newer, but further afield
suburbs. In other cases the development of new easy access via a motorway or bridge (eg
Auckland) has transformed the accessibility and thus usage of large areas.

An additional problem is that geographical features will often prevent the development of a
uniform radial pattern around a central point, as will the influence of nearby (or absorbed)
satellite towns which have already established their own land use patterns.

Hoyt

The sector or wedge theory is an important alternative to the concentric ring theory outlined
above. This theory was developed by Homer Hoyt during the 1930s and was the result of an
analysis of more than 200,000 neighbourhood blocks in approximately 70 American cities.

The sector theory assumes that in a city unconstrained by geographic features, a sliced pie
shaped spread of land uses will result - numerous sectors or "slices" extending out from the
central business district to the cities outskirts. Within each sector like uses and people of similar
social strata will tend to associate and growth will be accommodated by pushing further outward
from the city centre rather than by encroaching on an adjacent sector.

Individual sectors are influenced by various transportation routes radiating out from the city
centre. Particular land uses found in each sector will tend to expand outwards along these
principle transportation routes as they represent the lines of least resistance. Transport routes
may also represent the natural boundaries between each sector.
This theory helped explain the existence of ribbon type street frontage developments and the
tendency of commercial districts to expand lengthways followed by periods of infill between the
extended street frontages. This aspect was further developed into the Radial Corridor Theory
which represents a change of emphasis within the sector theory rather than a new direction of
thought.
Hoyt's theory also incorporates the concept of a synergistic relationship between land uses so
that there is an advantage in similar land uses being located adjacent to each other. For example,
industrial property will tend to locate beside other industrial property and residential alongside
residential. By doing so the positive "interchange" aspects of being adjacent to similar land uses
 4

are reinforced and the negative impact of incompatible uses being close to each other are
minimised.

An additional concept of Hoyt was that, as the city grows and expands, a high proportion of
housing occupied by middle and upper income groups is likely to be newly built, on former
rural land, towards the outskirts of the city. This expansion outward is related to existing areas
of medium/high income residential housing being constrained on either side by an intermediate
value area, but with the higher income groups most able to afford to build new houses on vacant
land.

Vacant land lies available adjacent to the existing high value area due to it not being available
for low value housing, either, because developers have restricted it to a high grade (and high
profit) use, or the value placed on the land by the market has already incorporated this profit
potential to the extent prices are now so high, that development for middle or lower income
housing is not viable.

Hoyt's theory also emphasised topographical factors in that high priced housing would move
towards high ground, undeveloped water fronts, land with views, or similar areas with natural
beauty, and away from but handily accessible to high speed transportation routes. He also
observed that "there is a gradient of rentals downwards from these high rental areas in all
directions." For this reason low income housing tended to be as far away as possible from high
income areas and nearest to industrial sites or other low amenity factors.

Harris and Ullman

A further development of the theory of urban land uses was the multiple nuclei theory of 1945
by Harris and Ullman. This enlarged on Hoyt’s thesis by asserting that cities and other
metropolitan areas often evolve with more than one business district. This is particularly the
case in very large cities. There is still a principle or down town business CBD or central core
but as a city grows there emerge one or more additional business districts, located along major
transport routes, at some distance from the CBD. Each of these becomes a nucleus for a similar
hierarchy of land uses that are comparable to those occurring around the CBD according to the
Burgess or Hoyt theories. For this hierarchy to fully occur, however, there needs to be an area of
vacant or low intensity use land between the various nuclei.

One of the reasons for multiple nuclei occurring is that expanding cities sometimes overrun
already existing commercial centres which continue to operate as a nuclei within the larger land
use pattern of the city.

In other cases distance and time involved in commuting to the CBD will create the opportunity
for subsidiary nuclei offering some of the more common functions otherwise performed by the
CBD. This has been particularly apparent since the second world war with the widespread use
of the motor car and the construction of new streets resulting in urban congestion in the central
CBD areas. An associated factor is that this pattern is more likely to occur where public
transportation systems are weaker and therefore do not contribute so significantly to the strength
of the CBD core.
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Other driving forces include synergistic factors encouraging certain activities to clump together
in particular locations or at the other end of the scale, incompatible uses locating as far apart as
possible.

Succession Theory

All the above theories assume that over time, urban growth will result in a "succession" of
different land uses as the "highest and best use" changes. In this way, for example, commercial
areas that are already constrained by other surrounding uses (in a ring or sector) will eventually
expand only by the acquisition and redevelopment of neighbouring uses, changing their
character to that of the commercial property.

The theory of succession is also considered to apply to the residential property market and may
occur in advance of acquisition pressure by other uses. For example occupants of older but
originally high cost housing close to an expanding commercial area consider the prospect of
modernising and rebuilding their houses but often decide instead to sell. In doing so a filtering
down process commences, in which high cost and medium cost houses of yesteryear gradually
decline and are occupied by a succession of lower income owners and tenants until they are
eventually converted into apartments or flats. Eventually these are demolished and replaced with
commercial or industrial premises.

The succession theory is therefore a useful overlay to the broader theories in explaining the
transitional areas that often occur between land uses, but are not explained by other theories.

Technology

Another factor influencing land use patterns is change in technology. The influence of the motor
car has already been mentioned but changes in heavy transportation and containerisation have
meant that industrial land uses are tending to spread further out from the central business district
than was historically the case. In addition industrial concerns are demanding larger buildings
with lower site coverage to cope with these transportation changes.

Industrial users often find existing sites too constrained for these technological changes or even
just due to simple expansion of their business. They need to move to "green fields"
developments to allow this expansion to take place. This has resulted in many new industrial
locations being on the outskirts of cities whereas older industrial areas closer to the CBD
gradually decline and become unsuitable for current industrial operations. Redevelopment of
these areas is often fraught with high cost problems, such as site amalgamation and
environmental clean up, that are not present in a green fields type development. This can result
in inner city "waste lands" such as the dockland area in London before redevelopment.

Technological change via computerisation has made suburban office parks, with their low site
coverage, available parking, enhanced environment and convenience to the workforce, not only
attractive to local service providers but also corporate head offices and government
departments.
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Weber's Theories

Further theories of land use relate to specific sectors. For example, last century Weber's theory
dealt with the importance of location, in respect of raw materials and markets, for particular
industries. These considerations are termed transfer costs and effect some industries in
particular. Other industries are more sensitive to processing costs and need to locate close to
sources of labour, availability of infrastructure and facilities. Then again some industries that
are neither market nor material orientated may locate at a specific location because of some
synergistic relationship with other businesses. For example, they may share local pools of
managerial or consultant talent, they may wish to take advantage of relatively low living costs,
or a high standard of amenity, or good water supplies, or cheap electricity, etc.

Economic Base Theory

This theory can help identify which particular industries are dominant in a city, and as a
consequence, the factors above most likely to influence the direction of industrial growth.

Traffic Counts

In respect of retail development, theory would have it that prime locations are related to the
trading ability of that site. In the past this was closely tied to pedestrian counts and access via
public transport. Over the last 50 years this theory has been extended to include motor vehicle
counts and particularly availability of motor vehicle car parking.

Convenience goods suppliers these days often find it more advantageous to locate away from
the central business district so they can better supply the daily needs of people living in a
particular neighbourhood. This trend is also being followed by some service providers such as
real estate agents, dentists, lawyers, accounting firms etc.

Again the degree to which this theory applies is often a function of scale. Small cities still find
the CBD area the most significant location for commercial activity, but as the city grows the dis-
economies of scale mean that suburban centres become progressively more important, and the
city experiences a decentralisation of their retail activities. In some situations this has resulted
in a concentration of the CBD’s activities with a reduction in its geographic size, the outskirts of
the CBD characterised by low rent, low intensity retail uses, or car parking. In very large cities
this can result in a "dead centre" with only daytime office uses, very little retail and night time
crime problems.

Shopping Theory

Another theory that helps explain urban retail distribution is the different distances people will
travel to purchase convenience goods, specialty goods, and shopping goods. This is particularly
reflected in the location of shopping centres which now represent an interim scale of land use
between the neighbourhood shop and the CBD. The successful positioning of shopping centres
is contingent upon an adequate catchment of shoppers and not being subject to competition
from alternative shopping centres or the CBD. In reality however, shopping centres often grow
 7

out of existing and perhaps not ideally located neighbourhood shopping centres, or alternatively
as the result of the arbitrary positioning of these centres by town planners.

Residential Theory

Theory in respect of residential location asserts that the typical householder wants convenience,
adequate space and a pleasing environment. Therefore, as well as the straight economic
considerations applicable to industrial and commercial space we have the influence of a far
more subjective factor. Personal preferences can be fickle and what may be desirable to one
consumer may be undesirable to another. In addition "fashion" can play a significant role.

Before the advent of modern transportation facilities, "convenience dictated that residential
locations were very much tied up with proximity to a workers place of employment”. Today
however, housing can be located almost anywhere within a large commuting zone, and the
location, style and amenities are dependent on the workers personal "trade off" preferences
along with willingness and ability to pay.

As can be seen from the above, there are a large number of theories seeking to explain urban
land use patterns and we have not even started to consider political factors, nor the more
esoteric mathematical models. This serves only to indicate the complexity of the situation, and
the fact that no one model is adequate.

Reviewing all the above it is usually the sector theory in combination with the multiple nuclei
concept that provides the most meaningful "holistic" explanation of the land use patterns found
in modern cities. That being said there are quite significant variations apparent which some of
the other theories can help explain. One of the most important is to consider the relative size of
the city and its economic base. With a small rurally based economy the land use patterns are
likely to tend towards the concentric ring theory. If a city is larger and more industrialised the
sector theory is more likely to be applicable, and when the city becomes very large the sector
theory in combination with the multiple nuclei concept is most likely to be dominant.

Overlaying all these "classical" theories is the assumption that a laissez faire type system is in
place which allows the market to determine where uses eventuate. While this is representative
of reality for many cities up to the middle of this century, and is the foundation upon which
many of the various theories have been based, in recent times the influence of town planning
has been very much more significant. Whether these theories will continue to be adequate to
explain the shape of cities in the future remains to be seen. It is likely the influence of political
and social considerations, as reflected in the planning process, will become more and more
dominant with the result that the patterns of urban growth will be even harder to analyze and
predict.
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APPLICATION OF URBAN LAND USE THEORIES TO THE CHRISTCHURCH

PROPERTY MARKET

As might be expected, the older areas in Christchurch most clearly exhibit the early concentric
ring theories of land use. In particular the CBD, centred on Cathedral Square, represents the
core of this land use distribution with, historically, a discontinuous ring of light
industrial/warehousing and worker accommodation uses immediately surrounding the central
district to the south, south west, east and north. South of Lichfield Street down to the railway
were substantial enterprises, many associated with the clothing industry. To the south west and
east saw less significant general industrial buildings, along with breweries, food manufacturers
and the fruit, vegetable and flower markets.

These uses were generally related directly or indirectly to those activities in the central zone in
accordance with the concentric ring theory. There was little residential accommodation to the
south of the square until beyond the railway line, but in the eastern area between Madras Street
and Fitzgerald Avenue and north of Kilmore street was and remains a considerable area of low
rent residential accommodation. Much of the original early housing was been replaced in the
60’s and 70’s with higher density but still low rent housing.

The "theoretical" ring did not extend all the way around the central core. Both to the north-west
and west the ring was broken by relatively high cost housing and the influence of Hagley Park
and "cultural uses" such as Christ’s College, the University and Christchurch Boys and Girls
High Schools. The Avon also formed a natural boundary and, because of the particular amenity
values associated with the river, the central business area flowed directly into high cost
residential without the transitional zone of industrial, warehousing and low cost housing uses
that would have been expected in accordance with the concentric ring theory.

Further out from the central city, particularly to the east, south and south-west we see a
continuation of land use patterns in accordance with concentric ring theory. Areas such as
Linwood, Phillipstown, Waltham, Sydenham and Addington originally, and still to some extent,
contain low cost worker housing. The vast majority of this original housing has been replaced
in some areas though, particularly in Sydenham.

Further afield again we have the historically middle class suburbs such as Opawa, St Martins,
Beckenham, Somerfield and Spreydon and to the north Richmond and St Albans. In accordance
with the theory these represent another concentric ring of medium priced housing. High cost
housing reflects the theory only to the south being represented on the city periphery by suburbs
such as Cashmere, Hillsborough, and Huntsbury.

The concentric ring theory can therefore be seen to apply reasonably accurately to the south,
south-east and south-west of Christchurch city, especially in relation to properties built up to the
1920s. It appears the accuracy of application is related to the age of the housing, and as a
consequence the economic base of the city (i.e. rural), the relative size of the city (small) and the
available transport technology (pre motorcar). In other words the city still closely resembled the
rural Von Thunen foundation for the concentric ring theory. Also at least until the Heathcote
and Port Hills were reached, there were no topographical features to the south, southeast, and
southwest that would impinge on development in accordance with the concentric ring theory.
 9

The same could not be said to the north of the city, where the early established high value area
of Fendalton, along with the enhanced amenity value influences of the Avon River and Hagley
Park would have significantly constrained development in accordance with the concentric ring
theory in this direction.

Another applicable aspect of the concentric ring theory is how the "transitional zone" on the
periphery of the central zone is quite evident in Christchurch. This is particularly so in the areas
of Lichfield, Tuam and Manchester Streets which, as per the theory, are blighted by the process
of change. We don’t see slum type accommodation in this location but we do see the other
interim low rent type uses identified by Ratcliff such as: "pawn shops, pool halls, beer gardens
or bars, strip joints, automotive supply stores, shoe retailers, cheap photographers and cheap
restaurants". Further to the east surrounding Latimer Square we saw formerly expensive houses
converted to low rent flats, but most of these have now gone.

Interestingly in Christchurch, the central business district, rather than expanding into this
transitional zone has in fact shrunk, due to the "concentration" of retailing by the development
of malls and arcades. This has seen some previously central areas such as lower High Street
turn into a transitional zone as identified by the concentric ring theory.

The theory though, does not seem to apply very well to the north and west of the city which, as
mentioned earlier, are influenced by the Avon River, Hagley Park and cultural amenities. We
no longer seem to see any significant transitional zone in these areas (Victoria street once was)
and indeed the CBD central zone has in effect been extending down Victoria Street influenced
no doubt by the Park Royal Hotel and Casino developments.

To the east and south the concentric ring theory is again strengthened when considering the
relatively high density of housing, the predominance of low rents, low values, a high percentage
of rental accommodation and a transient population. All of these factors fit with the theory and
are reflected in the City, Linwood, Phillipstown, Waltham, Sydenham, Addington, and to a
lesser extent St Albans and Richmond neighbourhoods.

The basis of the concentric ring theory: that higher valued properties can be further from the
centre due to the higher income earners being better able to afford commuting expenses, is well
reflected to the south of Christchurch. However, overall Christchurch is of such a size that
commuting expenses from any of the neighbourhoods are relatively insignificant. More
importantly perhaps, the public transport system is particularly weak, and as the inner suburbs
do enjoy the best service available in this respect, it most likely strengthens the concentric ring
land use pattern.

The adverse environmental impact of transportation routes on property distribution, in

accordance with the concentric ring theory, does not arise in Christchurch to any great extent
because the traffic volumes carried by our major routes are not so heavy as to greatly affect the
property values. Some major routes such as Fendalton Road still have very expensive housing
along their frontages and it is only in a few cases such as Riccarton Road, Lincoln Road,
Cranford Street and Ferry Road that a significant impact would be apparent.
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In conclusion, the concentric ring theory is useful in explaining the patterns of land use in the
older, inner areas of Christchurch city particularly to the south, east and southwest, but does not
adequately address land distribution to the north-west, west and more recently developed outer
suburbs.

Turning to the sector or Hoyt theory helps the situation considerably. It is obvious that the north-
west "wedge", represented initially by Fendalton, has always been a desirable residential
location in Christchurch. Much of this is tied up with the amenity values offered by nearby
Hagley Park, as well as river frontages available to many properties in the Fendalton area. This
area also had a particularly good water supply, important in the early days of settlement in
Christchurch city.

This wedge or sector has as its natural boundaries Riccarton Road and Papanui Road. After the
initial development of inner Fendalton we had later development of high cost housing in
adjacent suburbs such as Merivale, Riccarton, Ilam, and Bryndwr in more recent times
Avonhead, and Burnside. This extension outwards of land uses of a similar quality constrained
by adjacent areas of different quality (as represented by housing in St Albans and to the south of
Riccarton Road) conforms almost exactly to the wedge theory or sector theory developed by
Homer Hoyt.

In accordance with the theory, transportation routes radiating out from the CBD are central to
the development of sectors, as these represent "the lines of least resistance". In the case of
Christchurch's north-west these routes are primarily represented by Fendalton Road and
Memorial Avenue, and to a lesser extent by Rossall Street, Strowan Road, Wairakei Road,
Creyke Road and Maidstone Road.

The other major roads, Papanui and Riccarton, did not so much support the development of this
area as constrain it, as the land uses either side of these two streets were quite different, although
the influence of Merivale has now spilled over Papanui Road into the western parts of St
Albans. It is interesting that, apart from the original inner upmarket area of Fendalton, the
adjacent areas such as Bryndwr, Ilam, Avonhead, and Burnside were only developed since the
advent of the motorcar. This ties in with Hoyt’s theory, which was based on cities in the United
States which would have been going through the same process of motorisation in the early to
mid part of this century.

The ribbon type street frontage developments that are also characteristic of the sector theory can
be easily seen along Papanui Road in respect of motel development and along Riccarton Road
in respect of commercial development. This can also be seen in other areas where the sector
theory is not otherwise so obvious such as south along Colombo Street, south-west along
Lincoln Road, and south-east along Ferry Road. We have not, however, seen the development
of commercial use infill between these major routes as would be indicated by the theory, largely
due to the relative size of Christchurch and the ease of access to the central business district.

As well as Fendalton and the other high value areas further out to the northwest, the sector
theory can also be seen to apply clearly to other residential neighbourhoods. For example to the
northeast we have the older, inner middle income areas of Richmond and St Albans merging
 11

into newer but similar status suburbs such as Dallington, Shirley, Burwood, Avondale, and
Mairehau.

By the same token the older lower income suburbs such as Linwood and Phillipstown to the
east, tend to merge into similar low class neighbourhoods such as Woolston, Bromley, Aranui
and Wainoni.

Another concept of the sector theory is that the middle and upper income groups are most likely
to build new housing on the outskirts of a city. This is again evident in Christchurch by new
developments such as Westmorland, Hyde Park and Regents Park as well as parts of Parklands,
Halswell and areas off Lake Terrace Road. This reflects the theoretical restriction on the
development of new low cost housing discussed earlier, and in fact the predominant supplier of
new low cost housing has, until recently, been the Government via the Housing Corporation.

Developers have also, in accord with the theory, secured land well in advance of it being
required for new high cost housing in order to protect their markets and further enhance their
profit margins. A potential example of this is the purchase by Apple Fields Ltd. of large areas in
the green belt adjacent to existing high value residential developments. In the meantime these
areas are being used for orcharding purposes. The same applies in respect of Enterprise Homes
who have secured a similarly large area within the green belt, but bordering on to housing
already developed by the company. This is classical development theory in action.

The situation in Christchurch also reflects Hoyt’s emphasis on topographical features

influencing land uses. We have seen the high value uses move towards the river frontages and
towards the hill areas with their consequent views. But inexplicably we have also seen high
value areas move towards the airport and little movement towards the largely underdeveloped
water front areas of New Brighton. This perhaps, shows how the strength of the sector theory in
respect of like uses locating near each other is far stronger than the influence of a topographical
feature such as the airport. It also may be a function of the relative light usage of the airport at
present and it will be interesting to see if in twenty years time the premium attached to Burnside
and Avonhead properties remains.

The sector theory again can be seen to apply to industrial areas. To the south-east we had an
extension of industry along the railway line in early times, which was the primary industrial
transport route, and therefore in accordance with Hoyt’s theory the line of least resistance. This
can be seen in the industrial areas of Waltham and Woolston. Expansion in this direction was
also particularly influenced by the railway tunnel and access to the port at Lyttelton.

In the opposite westerly direction we had expansion sector wise, via the industrial areas of
Addington, Middleton, Sockburn, Hornby and out as far as Islington. Development in this
direction initially only extended as far as Addington and was constrained until the development
of better road access to the Sockburn and Hornby areas. This initially occurred in the 1950-60’s
when the former stock route between the saleyards near Hagley Park and the abattoir at
Sockburn, along which stock were originally driven on foot, was converted into a major four
lane road - Blenheim road. Previously access to Sockburn and Hornby had only been possible
via congested Riccarton Road and a similarly difficult route along Lincoln Road and Annex
Road. Once Blenheim Road was completed the development of Sockburn and to a lesser extent
 12

Hornby occurred quite rapidly. This was at the expense of other developing industrial areas
such as Woolston and particularly the Bromley-Bexley industrial area.

This process needs to be viewed in terms of the political situation of the time. Greater
Christchurch was divided into a number of local authorities and in particular, Paparoa County
Council and Waimakariri District Council were competing with the City Council in trying to
attract industrial development and the rating income that goes with it. Paparoa County had
ample industrially zoned land and importantly it had better access to the north and south road
routes as well as the airport. Deregulation of the transport industry made the western side
industrial areas far more attractive than the eastern Bromley/Bexley/Woolston areas within
Christchurch City Council jurisdiction, which had difficult access to both north and south main
roads as well as a smell problem from the nearby sewage treatment works. By this stage access
to the railway line had become less important, particularly as there was also a road tunnel giving
an extra route to Lyttelton Port.

One of the reactions of the Christchurch City to this difficulty of access was to promote major
new roading initiatives, such as the Brougham Street expressway, as well as extensions and
connections of major roads through to the Bexley area. At the same time Waimairi was trying
to take advantage of its own industrial areas' proximity to Christchurch airport as well as the
north/south city bypass route. These competing political entities probably distorted the reflection
of land use theory in the shape of Christchurch’s development and it will be interesting to see if
under the now united Christchurch City Council a different development pattern takes place. As
it is, the improved access to the port via the Brougham Street and Opawa expressways further
strengthened the dominance of the Hornby, Sockburn area, although the Bexley area has started
to pick up in the last five years.

This influence of road, rail, sea and air access routes only further strengthens the application of
the sector theory to these industrial parts of Christchurch city. We have also seen the
phenomenon of ribbon type industrial development followed by subsequent infill, again a
characteristic of the sector theory, in places such as Blenheim Road, Buchanans Road, the Main
South Road, and Carmen Road as well as Dyers Road and Maces Road in Bromley.

There have however, been other less visible influences on industrial development in
Christchurch. One of these was a significant restriction on trade waste disposal into the
sewerage system in the Hornby area. This prevented many industrial concerns that were high
volume users of the sewage system, from locating in the heavy industrial I4 zone of the former
Paparoa County. This inhibited development for some time, but has now been relieved by
upgrading and by the closing down of the Islington Freezing works which previously used much
of the sewerage capacity in the Sockburn/Hornby area.

The multiple nuclei theory developed by Harris and Ullman is less apparent in Christchurch
than the two earlier discussed theories. The central business district is still very much dominant
in Christchurch, largely due to the relatively small size of the city, the relatively flat and
featureless topography and the ease with which it is possible to travel from one side of the
metropolitan area to the other in a motorcar.
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We have, though, seen recent expansion and development of new shopping centres along one of
the major transport routes, i.e. Riccarton Road. While significant, it is not expected that this
will be a new nucleus for development as it is too close to the central business district and
already enveloped by very well established residential areas. It is possible that development of
the Papanui/ Northlands area may eventually comprise a small nucleus but again it is already
surrounded by developed residential areas and a true hierarchal structure is unlikely to expand
beyond the central retailing core. The same could apply to Hornby, New Brighton, and Sumner

One of the reasons we have not seen the multiple nuclei theory reflected in Christchurch's
structure is that the city itself has been constrained by a fairly rigorously enforced green belt
policy, combined with a relatively constant population base. The latter factor though has
changed recently with an influx of immigration. This has prevented the spread of the city to
include existing satellite centres such as Kaiapoi and Rangiora. These have remained physically
separate and, although they exhibit some of the hierarchy of uses in their individual layouts, they
predominantly constitute dormitory towns. The majority of residents still work and shop in
Christchurch. Distance and time involved commuting to the CBD are not yet a problem, and
are unlikely to be so until the well established critical commuting time of 45 minutes is
exceeded. This is likely to be quite some time off in Christchurch’s case.

Where the city has expanded, this has been due to changes in lifestyles and accommodation
preferences rather than population pressure. This is evidenced by the generally upmarket or
"lifestyle" character of most new development areas.

New "green fields" land on the city edge has also been relatively cheap for developers to acquire
and this factor has not encouraged redevelopment of inner city low cost housing areas or
obsolete inner city industrial sites. If the Council succumbs to current pressure to allow further
development in the green belt this will only make comprehensive redevelopment of the inner
city even less likely.

The public transport situation in Christchurch is particularly weak and therefore multiple nuclei
development could be expected to easily arise when traffic congestion becomes intolerable. The
flip side to this, though, is that Christchurch has a relatively good roading system with almost no
congestion in world wide terms at present.

At one stage in the early 1970's there was a proposal for a new satellite town to be developed at
Rolleston, but this was during a period when significant population growth was anticipated
which did not subsequently eventuate. The planned development at Rolleston would have been
a true new nucleus as it was envisaged a full range of industrial and commercial uses would
surround the new Rolleston central business district. It now seems unlikely that this will
proceed on the scale originally intended in the foreseeable future. However, some expansion of
Rolleston is occurring and is expected to accelerate. Some major employment generators will be
necessary for Rolleston to assume the identity of a true nuclei rather than becoming a commuter
satellite town similar to Kaiapoi and Rangiora.

The theory of succession can be seen to apply to some parts of Christchurch but not others. The
unusual shrinking of the CBD, rather than expansion, has already been discussed which is
almost a negative form of succession and quite contrary to the theory. However, to the east of
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the city we have seen older but originally high cost houses replaced with cheaper, low rise high
density housing which again is nearing the end of its economic life and likely to be redeveloped
in the not too distant future.

We have also seen the original low cost housing areas of Sydenham almost completely
transformed into high density industrial areas. Part of this process was encouraged by the
planning blight that descended on Sydenham for several decades while a major motorway route
was proposed through the area. Many properties were acquired by the Ministry of Works at that
time and eventually found their way into being used for low rent temporary uses such as car
wreckers. After many years, the proposal for the motorway was abandoned and these areas have
subsequently been redeveloped into more upmarket industrial premises.

The theory of succession seems to have applied very little in the Fendalton and Cashmere areas
where old, original high cost houses are still in significant demand and are unlikely to be
replaced by any other use in the immediate future. In contrast, we have recently seen a
proliferation of cross leasing and infill in parts of Beckenham, St Albans, St Martins and other
medium quality, but elderly housing areas. This is of quite some concern to the people in those
neighbourhoods as many believe this is the start of the filtering down process similar to that
which has already occurred in places such as Linwood, where once new and attractive
ownership flat properties of 15-20 years ago are now low cost rental accommodation. This
development also significantly impacts on the demographic profile of the area with a large
inflow of predominantly elderly people purchasing the new units.

Some other theories reflected in Christchurch’s land distribution are technological changes such
as the use of containerisation as well as political effects such as transport deregulation. In
combination these saw the previously inner city industrial areas no longer capable of coping
with the large yard and parking areas associated with these new forms of transport. This very
much stimulated new industrial development on large sites in the Hornby and Sockburn area,
down in Woolston and to a lesser extent Bexley. The introduction of the one way system into
the centre of Christchurch in order to cope with CBD traffic congestion, while solving that
problem, exacerbated the difficulties in truck access that were facing inner city industrial
properties accelerating the process.

In respect of Weber’s theories of location of industry, in relation to raw materials and markets,
Christchurch has always been a market and transfer town for its rural hinterland and is likely to
remain so. Access to international transport routes has, therefore, always been important and
the location of export industries close to the railway line, to the main roads north and south, and
on the route to Lyttelton has been important, particularly since transport deregulation and
competition between ports for export business. We have also seen a remarkable recent growth
in industry wanting to locate near the airport because of the importance of air transport to some
of our high value fresh produce and hi-tech industries. Because of ease of transport in and
around Christchurch we have not seen industrial location having significant impact in respect of
the local market and there are no significant industries in Christchurch relying on bulky
extractive industries.

A similar effect to that discussed above in relation to transport technology has afflicted
industries who are simply expanding. Many of these who were located in the inner city found
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their existing sites too constrained for business expansion and were forced to move out to
Sockburn, Hornby, Woolston or Bexley in order to source a site of sufficient size for their new
operations. Many industries have bought excessive areas in order to protect against finding
themselves in the same situation again. This relocation has left areas in the city that are ripe for
amalgamation and redevelopment for industry, but often these areas are fraught with high cost
development, environmental, town planning and traffic problems. Until prices of "greenfields"
sites go up this is unlikely to occur. Councils at the same time have a vested interest in keeping
industrial land prices down, as this can attract industry and thus economic development to the
city. For this reason most cities historically zone "plenty" of land for industry keeping the supply
up and prices low.

The theory of commercial development in relation to pedestrian counts and traffic counts is well
illustrated by land uses in Christchurch. The highest value commercial uses have tended to
congregate in those streets with the highest pedestrian traffic. Again the concentration and
reduction in size of the central business district, as discussed earlier, also affects this issue. As
the motor vehicle has become more and more important in the city, particularly since the 1960s,
the relevance of traffic counts has become significant. Those locations that enjoy very high
passing vehicle counts are now characterised by semi retailing uses such as: car sales yards,
appliance stores, furniture retailers and bulk retailing outfits such as Mitre 10 and Placemakers
- Moorhouse Ave is a prime example.

Another theoretical aspect that is increasingly applying to Christchurch is the lack of central city
car parking impacting on the desirability of both retail and office space in the central city for
some uses. A number of office users and retail tenants for whom car parking and proximity to
customers are critical are moving away from the CBD and into suburban locations solely
because of this factor. We have seen the development of semi-retail and office parks in areas
such as Mandeville Street and along Bealey Avenue, the high tech office park development out
near the airport, and the new retailing and office developments occurring along Moorhouse
Avenue and near Ferrymead. These trends are likely to continue in the future, particularly if no
new parking buildings are constructed in the inner city. It has not however yet progressed to the
scale of Auckland and other cities which have seen very significant depopulation of their CBDs
by retailers and office users.

A final theory that helps to explain urban land uses is the different distances people will travel to
purchase convenience goods, specialty goods, and shopping goods. This is clearly evident in
Christchurch by looking at the tenancies within the various shopping centres. It is fairly plain
that travel time is not significant in influencing the location of "shopping goods" retailers (eg
furnishing/whiteware) but "convenience goods" and "specialty goods" are generally well catered
for in local and neighbourhood shopping centres dotted around the city. The only shopping
centres approaching a scale so as to incorporate "shopping" type goods are those located along
Riccarton Road and potentially Northlands after it has been redeveloped. There is quite a lot of
contention that Christchurch is significantly "overshopped" and not all existing shopping centres
and other retail areas will be able to survive long term unless there is a significant growth in
consumer spending. It is also characteristic of Christchurch that the location of shopping
centres has been more a result of historical precedent and relatively arbitrary town planning
decisions rather than shopping centres locating in areas that best match their natural catchments.
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FUTURE GROWTH OF LAND USES IN CHRISTCHURCH

In my last article for this publication I put forward my view on how the historic and existing
patterns of land use in the city of Christchurch could be explained, at least in part, by reference
to some of the “classic” theories of urban land use as developed over the last one hundred years.

In this article I will attempt to predict future land use patterns for this city - a dangerous pursuit
at any time, but potentially even more controversial at this time in the city’s history, given the
recent and atypical increase in population combined with the comprehensive review of the city
plan.

While the “classic” theories adequately reflected the economic and sociological forces that
dominated development in the early part of this century, the future growth of land uses in
Christchurch will be increasingly determined by less predictable political forces. That said, the
patterns that are already in place will have a very significant influence on both political and
economic decisions of the future.

For the above reason the currently most evident “sector theory” is likely to continue to
predominate, but more evidence of the multiple nuclei theory will emerge due to a number of
factors associated with the cities growth.

Firstly there are a number of physical factors constraining the growth of particular sectors. To
the east development now extends as far as the sea and to the south as far as the hills. To the
north- west there is little room for expansion before the influence of the airport becomes
overpowering, or the floodplain of the Waimak is encroached upon.

Political constraint, in the form of the “greenbelt” has hitherto prevented expansion onto the
good soils of the Marshlands or Halswell areas and expansion west beyond Hornby is
constrained by storm-water and sewage servicing difficulties in addition to greenbelt
considerations.

However, the integrity and extent of the greenbelt is now under considerable pressure due to
both a perceived weakening of the protection of quality soils under the Resource Management
Act, and the persistent pressure of developers who have over the last fifteen years secured
substantial blocks of strategically located rurally zoned land with the long term view that the
green belt will be “loosened”.

If the “loosening” of the green belt is only slight we are likely to see further encouragement of
growth in the satellite communities of Rangiora, Kaiapoi and Rolleston. This growth, already
substantial to the north, will be further strengthened as commuting to the city becomes more
congested and as a result the service and employment infrastructure of the satellite communities
develop. The latter is already being bolstered by the increase in demand created by the
significant population increase in the "lifestyle block" belt that exists both within and outside
the greenbelt area.
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Dealing with each major category of land use in turn:

Residential growth can still occur on the Cashmere hills, with a significant area of medium
density land recently developed on the old Coronation Hospital site, and a new low density
subdivision recently approved for the Kennedy's Bush area. There are other areas also suitable
for housing but developers of hill property will always want to restrict supply and keep section
prices and thus margins high, due to the high costs and risks of physical construction. The
uniqueness of hill properties will always command a premium and while the top of the market is
volatile in terms of turnover it is not so price sensitive as other markets, therefore the high
margins will be there for those developers who get their timing right.

Residential land use is close to capacity out to the east, with only small areas remaining
undeveloped in Parklands. It is this medium quality of housing that is most likely to be
redirected to new developments in the satellite towns where traditional suburban "scale" and
amenities will be able to be accommodated.

To the north, west and south-west it is the political decision in respect of the greenbelt upon
which future land uses depend. If restrictions are relaxed, sector style expansion into these areas
is probable, whereas if retained, growth will be accommodated in the satellite towns, and also
by redevelopment within the city. The latter has not been a popular option up until now except
for very close in and relatively expensive apartment development. For example, the Addington
workshops area remains vacant and there are many older properties from Madras street East to
Fitzgerald Ave that could be comprehensively redeveloped into medium density, moderately
priced housing. However, while relatively cheap and problem free "greenfields" areas remain
available developers will focus on these. If supply of these becomes restricted it will lift land
prices to a level where redevelopment of obsolete industrial and residential areas into new,
medium to high density housing areas with a range of values, becomes viable. On the other
hand, if supply is not restricted these inner suburbs are likely to remain "in transition" for quite
some time.

Infill in respect of the "cheap and nasty" cross leasing evident in recent times is likely to cease
soon because of a combination of negative public reaction, legislative change and reduction in
the supply of subdivisible sections. Infill will instead be redirected to the more comprehensive
schemes discussed above.

Industrial land is still plentiful in Christchurch and likely to remain so. The long term take up
rate for industrial land is 15 ha per annum and at this rate, there is still over 20 years supply
available (Regional Council and other reports). Many existing industries have spare land on
which to expand, and low land costs have, so far, not spurred the redevelopment of long
obsolete and unutilised factories such as the former Crown Crystal Glass, Skellerup and
Islington freezing works complexes.

Corporate Real Estate Asset Management - the process of large organisations continually
reassessing their property needs in light of their strategic objectives - has gathered steam in
recent years with the result that substantial areas are being released to the market. Wigram
Airforce Base closure and the completion of the relocation of railway operations to Middleton
are notable examples - both potentially releasing large areas of industrial land onto the market.
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The strong industrial sector growth of a few years ago has now subsided and was in any case
largely limited to niche markets. As the economy begins its predicted slow recovery, market
niches will continue to provide opportunities and while a continuation of recent new building
development is expected in the Sydenham, Hornby and Airport areas other areas will remain in
the doldrums.

In the longer term the new roading links opening up the Woolston and Bexley areas are
expected to help these localities catch up with Sockburn and Hornby but only after supply in the
latter becomes constrained which could be some time off.

While it is desirable for the satellite towns to develop their own industrial base, they will have to
offer a minimum critical mass plus very cheap land, rates relief, or other offsetting advantages
to combat the distance, infrastructure and synergistic benefits of Christchurch city sites

Commercial development in Christchurch is already in an oversupply situation according to

many commentators. The future is likely to bring little net gain in this land use but rather a
significant redistribution and upgrading.

In respect of office space there still remains an overhang from the last period of supply and little
speculative development is expected until this is absorbed. Once it is, new high rises are
expected to concentrate north and west of the square with those overlooking the river and other
open areas having a competitive advantage. Parking and easy access are expected to become
even more important than at present as the city grows. For the same reasons, plus the changing
nature of many service organisations the developing trend to relocate from the CBD to fringe or
suburban locations such as the four avenues, Papanui, Church Corner and near the airport is
likely to continue.

Increasing use of "home work" telecommuting, and office and job sharing will lead to more
demand for serviced and "intelligent" offices located close to residential areas. Eventually small
developments of this type will be found "dotted" all around the city.

Retailing will continue to dominate ground floors in the CBD, but with a greater concentration
on niche, upmarket, entertainment and tourist uses. Day to day purchases will be largely
confined to the suburban shopping centres and discount warehouses with which the CBD
retailers will not be able to compete. "Shopping" goods will be obtained from retail warehouses
operating from semi industrial-showroom type premises located along major traffic arteries such
as Moorhouse Avenue, Blenheim Road, The Main North Road and parts of the one way system.

When the satellite communities reach a "critical mass" new shopping centres will be developed
to obviate the need to travel to the city for most purchases. This may have a significant impact
on those Christchurch malls that now serve these markets (Northlands, Shirley, Hornby) and
their recent and proposed redevelopment can be interpreted as a “pre-emptive strike” to try and
prevent or at least delay the establishment of viable compassion in the satellites.
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CONCLUSION

As stated in my previous article many factors conspire to create the patterns of land use evident
in our cities and Christchurch is no exception.

Studying patterns of land use is a "holistic" way of helping us understand why these patterns
exist, and how the existing situation combined with anticipated change will influence patterns of
land use in the future.

Christchurch shows evidence of the concentric ring theory in its early development with the
sector theory more recently dominant. It appears that we are approaching the size that coincides
with expansion according to the multiple nuclei theory, but to some extent this rests with
political decision making associated with the green belt policy.

Predictions of growth are difficult when overlaid with a political dimension of such importance,
but residential expansion is inevitable while immigration and change in lifestyles continue. New
demand will be accommodated by a combination of redevelopment and infill of existing areas
and either sector wise expansion to the north, west and south west or redirection of this growth
to the satellite towns. The relative balance between these options and therefore the way in which
Christchurch will develop in the foreseeable future will be determined by decisions to be taken
in respect of the greenbelt in the very near future.

In contrast it is evident that for the commercial and industrial markets, it is not straight growth
in land use that is anticipated, but rather a re-focussing of activities that will see some new uses
develop and others pass into oblivion. Theories illuminating this process include those of
succession, technological change, economic base, transport, shopping behaviour and Weber's
theories of transfer costs. None is likely to be dominant however, with the particular sector
under consideration largely determining what factors are most significant but again over laid by
the influences of the political process.

Some of the above analysis may prove controversial and responses to the editor of this
publication will be welcome. The predictions are put forward for discussion by someone
without a vested interest in any particular policy decision, but rather in an attempt to stimulate
informed debate on issues that will affect all residents of Christchurch for a long time into the
future.
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