Energy Innovation Nov 30 2015
Energy Innovation Nov 30 2015
Energy Innovation Nov 30 2015
BY
B I L L
G AT E S
N OV E M B E R
3 0, 2 0 1 5
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Introduction
In 30 years the world will consume much more energy than it does today. This should
be good news. Wherever access to reliable, affordable energy goes up, so does the
quality of life. But today more than 1 billion people lack access to the most basic energy
services. Energy keeps schools and businesses running, city lights shining, tractors
plowing, and cars and trucks moving. Without plentiful energy, the poverty rate could
not have dropped by more than half since 1990, and hundreds of millions of people
would have been denied the opportunity to improve their lives. There would be no
steel, fertilizer, cement, or many of the other materials that make modern life possible.
Of course, the worlds growing appetite for energy is not
I M PA C T O F R E D U C I N G E M I S S I O N S O N G LO B A L T E M P E R AT U R E R I S E
The blue line shows how dramatically we need to cut emissions from energy production if we want to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
gCO 2 / kWh
600
GLOBAL AVERAGE
500
Historic
6 Degree Scenario
400
4 Degree Scenario
2 Degree Scenario
300
N E W C A PA C I T Y
200
6 Degree Scenario
4 Degree Scenario
100
2 Degree Scenario
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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2050
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private funding.
In this paper I make the case that, although we have made good
E N E R G Y T R A N S I T I O N S TA K E D E C A D E S
% of Total Global Energy Supply
60
50
Gas
40
Oil
Coal
30
Nuclear
Hydropower
20
Traditional Biofuels
Other Renewables
10
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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investments, the world can get the tools to meet its growing
near zero.
Why We Need
Energy Innovation
times more.12 This explains not only why electric cars have a
be prohibitively heavy.
that wind and solar PV could cut the worlds annual emissions
from electricity generation 22 percent by 2050.8
Why not 100 percent? One reason is that solar PV and wind
even when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.
future, but they are not the only one. Given the scale of this
the other hand, the only source is electricity from fossil fuels.
Because energy companies have to recover their capital costs
and they are not getting any return during the day, they either
raise the price of energy at night, or they slowly go bankrupt.
It would help solve this problem if we could store lots of
solar or wind energy and then use it on cloudy or still days.
Another option would be to deploy these resources wherever
sun and wind are plentiful and connect them to other places
The Case
for Government
Investment
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This time lag between invention and impact helps explain why
0.23 percent.14
INDUSTRY
INVESTMENT IN R&D
PHARMACEUTICAL
20%
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
15%
ENERGY
0. 23%
Source: International Energy Agency, Global Gaps in Clean Energy R&D (2010)
the state of the art in energy production since World War II.
T O TA L
U.S. SECTOR
SPEND (2013)
R AT I O O F R & D
T O T O TA L
SECTOR SPEND
(2013)
in the late 19th century, but the diesel engine did not become
ENERGY
$1.4 TRILLION
$5. 3 BILLION
0.4%
HEALTH CARE
$2.9 TRILLION
$31 BILLION
1.1%
DEFENSE
$6 40 BILLION
$69.8 BILLION
11%
13
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INV EST EA R LY
INV EST B O LD LY
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=23&t=10), Americans used more than 374 million gallons of gasoline per day in 2014. At an average of $2.50 /
gallon, this works out to more than $6.5 billion per week.
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Promising Research
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PHOTOANODE
2H 2 0
4e CATALYST
0 2 + 4H +
ION EXCHANGE
MEMBRANE
ELECTR ICAL
MEMBRANE
H+
different approaches.
CATALYST
4H +
4e
2H 2
PHOTOCATHODE
United States and around the world are developing ideas that
The Challenge
The technology is still in its first generation. One challenge
is that researchers need to develop a light-absorberthe top
piece of bread in the club sandwichthat will work under
SOLAR CHEMICAL
The Opportunity
Solar photovoltaic technology uses photons to generate
electricity from sunlight. Solar thermal uses mirrors to
channel heat from the sun. Solar chemical takes a different
approach, using solar energy to create fuel.
F L O W B AT T E R I E S
The Opportunity
The current gold-standard in storing electricity is the
like set of fins that charge the liquid with energy. Energy is
back through the fins and into the holding tanks. The tanks
could be as small as a fish tank or as large as a swimming pool;
the larger the tank, the more energy it would hold.
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Solar paint would transform almost any surface into a cheap solar panel.
It could work on rooftops, walls, cars, cell phones, and more. It involves applying
a conductive layer, then a white base layer, and finally a light-sensitive dye on
topthis is what generates the electricityand applying heat to cure the paint.
In theory, it would be as straightforward as painting a wall in your house.
Source: NDnano, University of Notre Dame
TANK 1
TANK 2
PUMP 1
PUMP 2
MEMBRANE
The Challenge
Researchers are trying to refine the light-sensitive dyes that
generate electricity. The most efficient dyes come from a
family of chemicals called perovskites, and they convert about
Flow batteries would last longer and store more energy than
todays batteries.
They use a rechargeable liquid electrolyte inside two pairs of tankstwo
receiving tanks and two holding tanks. Energy is stored and discharged by
moving the liquid between the tanks. These batteries can be as small as a
fish tank or as big as a swimming pool, making them more attractive for
industrial use than todays batteries.
The Challenge
Many working prototypes use vanadium, a relatively rare
element, as the active electrolyte. Future systems will need
to use a more easily available electrolyte before they are
commercially feasible.
S O L A R PA I N T
The Opportunity
Although the cost of solar panels is coming down quickly,
installing and maintaining them remains expensive. The idea
behind solar paint is to make solar power much cheaper and
easier to install. Almost any surface could be transformed
into a cheap solar panel: rooftops, walls, cars, cell phones, and
more. It involves applying a conductive layer, then a white
base layer, and finally a light-sensitive dye on topthis is
what generates the electricityand applying heat to cure the
paint. In theory, anyone could do this; it would be almost as
straightforward as painting a wall in a house.
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Conclusion
It is hard to overstate the impact that clean, affordable, reliable energy will have. It
will make most countries energy-independent, stabilize prices, and provide low- and
middle-income countries the resources they need to develop their economies and help
more people escape povertyall while keeping global temperatures from rising more
than 2 degrees. I am optimistic that the next 15 years can bring the big breakthroughs
we need to accomplish all of these things.
This is a fantastic opportunity. It is also an unmistakable challenge. Humans have
changed their energy diets before, but never as rapidly as we need to today. Moving
this fast is unprecedented, which is all the more reason to start now.