NBC News - WSJ - Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters - February 2016
NBC News - WSJ - Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters - February 2016
NBC News - WSJ - Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters - February 2016
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NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist New Hampshire Poll of 2,551 Adults
This survey of 2,551 adults was conducted February 2nd and February 3rd, 2016 by The Marist Poll
sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of
age and older residing in the state of New Hampshire were interviewed in English by telephone using live
interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone
exchanges from throughout the state of New Hampshire from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges
were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents
in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. To increase coverage,
this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone
numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a
voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance
was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the
interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American
Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically
significant within 1.9 percentage points. There are 2,232 registered voters. The results for this subset
are statistically significant within 2.1 percentage points. Among registered voters, 839 had a phone
match in the voter file and 1,393 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within
3.4 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively. There are 921 voters in the potential
Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in New Hampshire includes
unaffiliated voters who prefer to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and registered Democrats.
The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.2 percentage points. There are 567 likely
Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood
respondents will participate in the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary based upon
their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset
are statistically significant within 4.1 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample
weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Nature of the Sample - New Hampshire
New Hampshire Adults
Col %
Col %
100%
87%
100%
36%
41%
22%
25%
Democrat
n/a
26%
Republican
n/a
30%
Independent
n/a
44%
Other
n/a
0%
Democrat
n/a
26%
Republican
n/a
26%
Independent
n/a
46%
Other
n/a
1%
Very liberal
n/a
7%
Liberal
n/a
20%
Moderate
n/a
39%
Conservative
n/a
25%
Very conservative
n/a
9%
n/a
19%
Men
49%
49%
Women
51%
51%
Under 45
42%
38%
45 or older
58%
62%
18 to 29
19%
16%
30 to 44
22%
22%
45 to 59
31%
32%
60 or older
28%
30%
White
93%
94%
African American
1%
1%
Latino
2%
2%
Party Registration
Party Identification
Political Ideology
Race
Region
Household Income
Education
Marital Status
Evangelical Christian
Other
4%
4%
Hillsborough
30%
30%
Rockingham
22%
22%
Northern Counties
18%
18%
Southern Counties
30%
30%
40%
37%
$50,000 or more
60%
63%
53%
50%
College graduate
47%
50%
Married
54%
58%
Not married
46%
42%
Yes
13%
12%
No
87%
88%
11%
11%
Practice a Religion
34%
36%
66%
64%
Match
34%
38%
No Match
66%
62%
Landline
55%
58%
Cell Phone
45%
42%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Adults. Interviews conducted February 2nd and February 3rd, 2016, n=2551 MOE +/- 1.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to
100% due to rounding.
New Hampshire Registered Voters: n=2232 MOE +/- 2.1 percentage points.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Col %
Col %
100%
61%
100%
Party Registration
Democrat
61%
62%
Independent
39%
38%
Democrat
59%
61%
Republican
1%
1%
Independent
39%
37%
Party Identification
Past Participation*
Political Ideology
Other
1%
1%
Yes
80%
87%
No
20%
13%
Very liberal
16%
18%
Liberal
40%
40%
Moderate
36%
35%
Conservative
7%
7%
Very conservative
1%
1%
6%
6%
Men
41%
40%
Women
59%
60%
Under 45
42%
39%
45 or older
58%
61%
18 to 29
17%
13%
30 to 44
26%
26%
45 to 59
28%
29%
60 or older
30%
33%
White
93%
95%
African American
1%
0%
Latino
1%
1%
Other
4%
3%
Hillsborough
29%
28%
Rockingham
20%
22%
Northern Counties
17%
18%
Southern Counties
34%
32%
39%
37%
$50,000 or more
61%
63%
43%
40%
College graduate
57%
60%
Married
51%
54%
Not married
49%
46%
Yes
5%
4%
No
95%
96%
4%
4%
Practice a Religion
27%
28%
73%
72%
Match
37%
41%
No Match
63%
59%
Landline
56%
59%
Cell Phone
44%
41%
Race
Region
Household Income
Education
Marital Status
Evangelical Christian
White Evangelical Christians
Religiosity
New Hampshire Voter Registration List
Interview Type
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Potential Democratic Electorate. Interviews conducted February 2nd and February 3rd, 2016, n=921 MOE +/- 3.2 percentage
points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
New Hampshire Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=567 MOE +/- 4.1 percentage points.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters
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Men
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Women
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71%
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Menage45orol
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NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters
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72%
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84%
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