DDT's Pop Flies (70)

After a decade of "ballot logjam," has voting for the National Baseball Hall of Fame finally returned to normal? We will know when results from the ballots cast by the qualified members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA, or "the writers") are announced on January 21, 2025, although based on voting trends over the last decade, the bulk of the results are predictable and, by now, unsurprising.

What does a "return to normal" mean? Of the 14 first-time candidates on the BBWAA 2025 ballot, only two, CC Sabathia and Ichiro Suzuki, stand out as likely Hall of Famers, and neither are a lock for first-ballot induction. Of the 14 returning candidates, none of the "normal" candidates are automatic Hall of Famers, else they would have been elected already. Thus, there is no "ballot logjam," meaning that there are not more than ten sure-fire Hall of Famers who exceed the maximum of ten votes allowed per ballot.

Created in April 2022, the Classic Baseball Era Committee debuts to deliberate eight candidates for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. All eight candidates' careers began before 1980. Two are associated with the Negro Leagues, assimilated into Major League Baseball in December 2020, while the other six are some very familiar names indeed, and it is highly likely that at least one of them will be announced by the committee on December 8, 2024, for formal induction in July 2025.

The six non-Negro Leagues candidates are practically near-contemporaries whose playing careers span the 1950s through the 1980s: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Dave Parker, and Luis Tiant. The two Negro Leagues candidates are John Donaldson and Vic Harris, with Donaldson, whose tenure in the officially-recognized Negro Leagues lasted for the first half of the 1920s, also considered a manager and a pioneer of sorts; by contrast, Harris's playing and managing career spanned virtually the entire Negro Leagues period from 1920 to 1948.

Quite honestly, I can't you tell how many times I've seen The Last Waltz, but I do know that the next time I do, it will be with sadness knowing that Robbie Robertson, alive forever in that landmark rock and roll concert movie, died on August 9 at the age of 80 after his battle with prostate cancer.

Given that The Last Waltz had been directed by Martin Scorsese and had featured a galaxy of classic-rock stars from Bob Dylan, Joni Mitchell, and Van Morrison to Eric Clapton, Muddy Waters, and Neil Young, it is somehow fitting that even casual rock fans—certainly those born after the movie's release date of 1978—who might have vaguely heard of the Band, whose farewell concert is the very purpose of the movie, might still ask, "Robbie who?"

The church bell will ring one last time for Gordon Lightfoot, "the Canadian musical institution," as critic Bart Testa once termed him. That reference is of course to the last verse of the singer-guitarist-songwriter's signature song "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald," in which "in a musty old hall in Detroit" "the church bell chimed 'til it rang twenty-nine times for each man on the Edmund Fitzgerald," an ore carrier that sank in Lake Superior during a heavy storm in November 1975.

That bell chimes now for Gordon, who died of natural causes at age 84 in Toronto, Ontario, on May 1. Lightfoot had to cancel a tour just three weeks prior to his death, citing health issues as the reason. A bell tolling for him is sadly fitting, for it was Lightfoot's song, a Number Two US hit in 1976, that demonstrated evocatively how folk music, which might have seemed quaint and out-of-date amidst the mid-Seventies disco, glam-rock, and arena-rock, with hints of burgeoning punk-rock beginning to scratch and claw forth, still had the essence to capture the moment.

Days from the January 24, 2023, announcement by the National Baseball Hall of Fame of candidates who may have been elected by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA), the burning question is not who those candidates, if any, will be. Instead, the burning question is: What morality are BBWAA voters going to legislate for the Hall of Saints this year?

For more than a decade, the controversy over performance-enhancing drugs (PED) has consumed discussion about who should or should not be elected to the Hall, capped by the late Hall of Famer Joe Morgan's now-infamous 2017 missive to voters about keeping the PED Penitents out of Cooperstown. But although the PED predicament remains—among the returning candidates on the 2023 BBWAA ballot are Manny Ramirez and Álex Rodriguez—voters are now finding other performance flaws in candidates to deny them entrance to the Hallowed Hall.

By paring the number of candidates to be considered by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee to a lean-and-mean eight, and if trends by recent iterations of the National Baseball Hall of Fame Veterans Committee continue, the odds look very good for Fred McGriff to be making an induction speech in Cooperstown, New York, in July 2023 when the committee announces its results during the baseball winter meetings to be held on December 4, 2022.

Why should McGriff start preparing his induction speech? Because the Screening Committee that selected the eight players whose careers began after 1980 to be considered by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee of the Hall of Saints—sorry, make that the Hall of Fame—have gamed the ballot to, in essence, eliminate half of its candidates right off the bat, leaving the slugging first baseman as the most viable candidate for consideration ahead of, in order of descending likelihood, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Albert Belle.

On a ballot packed with qualified candidates for the National Baseball Hall of Fame, is it possible that none of them will be elected this year?

If that happens, as it did last year, it would be the third time in the last decade that the qualified voters of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) have thrown a shutout at the Hall of Fame. This is an odd paradox considering that after the Big Zilch of 2013, the BBWAA in subsequent years went on to elect 22 players across the next seven ballots, with the various guises of the veterans committee voting in another five players (and six non-players) during that seven-year span. (In 2013, the veterans committee did elect three candidates to the Hall.)

Last year, Curt Schilling, who had garnered 70 percent of the vote on the previous ballot, seemed to be a lock for election. Instead, he stalled with a negligible increase in support, then threw a social-media Trumper tantrum declaring that he wanted to be removed from this year's ballot. The Hall of Fame quickly responded that it would not do so.

Is this the year Curt Schilling makes it into the National Baseball Hall of Fame? Will Schilling be the only player elected to the Hall this year? After all the tumultuous voting activity of the 2010s, has voting for the Hall returned to "normal"?

Only a crystal ball, or the patience to wait until voting results for the 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame are announced on January 26, 2021, can give us the definitive answers, but of course that doesn't stop us from prognosticating before we learn the results.

For now, the short answers are:

1. Maybe.

2. Possibly.

3. Likely.

2021 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot: Executive Summary