Search Results (8,603)

The potential range and distribution of insects are greatly impacted by climate change. This study evaluates the potential global shifts in the range of Gryllus bimaculatus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) under several climate change scenarios. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided the location data for G. bimaculatus, which included nineteen bioclimatic layers (bio01–bio19), elevation data from the WorldClim database, and land cover data. For the near future (2021–2040) and far future (2081–2100) under low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) and the Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (IPSL-CM6A-LR) were used. Assessing habitat gain, loss, and stability for G. bimaculatus under potential scenarios was part of the evaluation analysis. The results showed that the main environmental parameters affecting the distribution of G. bimaculatus were mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean diurnal temperature range, isothermality, and seasonal precipitation. Since birds, small mammals, and other insectivorous insects rely on G. bimaculatus and other cricket species as their primary food supply, habitat loss necessitates management attention to the effects on the food web. The spread of G. bimaculatus as a sentinel species in the food chain and its use in animal feeds are both impacted by habitat loss and gain. Full article

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for understanding land-atmospheric interactions. Despite the advancement in ET measurement, a single ET estimate still suffers from inherent uncertainties. Data fusion provides a viable option for improving ET estimation by leveraging the strengths of individual ET products, especially the triple collocation (TC) method, which has a prominent advantage in not relying on the availability of “ground truth” data. In this work, we proposed a framework for uncertainty analysis and data fusion based on the extended TC (ETC) and multiple TC (MTC) variants. Three different sources of ET products, i.e., the Global Land Evaporation and Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), the fifth generation of European Reanalysis-Land (ERA5-Land), and the complementary relationship model (CR), were selected as the TC triplet. The analyses were conducted based on different climate zones and land cover types across China. Results show that ETC presents outstanding performance as most areas conform to the zero-error correlations assumption, while nearly half of the areas violate this assumption when using MTC. In addition, the ETC method derives a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficient (Corr) than the MTC one over most climate zones and land cover types. Among the ET products, GLEAM performs the best, while CR performs the worst. The merged ET estimates from both ETC and MTC methods are generally superior to the original triplets at the site scale. The findings indicate that the TC-based method could be a reliable tool for uncertainty analysis and data fusion. Full article

Unplanned urban expansion poses significant challenges to environmental sustainability and urban planning. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of Zinder’s urban landscape using Landsat satellite imagery from 1988, 2000, 2011, and 2022. The study applied remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) techniques, and urban growth models. The random forest classifier, a machine learning algorithm, was used to classify three land use/land cover categories: “vegetation”, “built-up”, and “others”. Zinder’s arid environment is characterized by sparse vegetation, which constitutes a limited but vital component of its landscape. Despite the already sparse vegetation in the area, the findings reveal a 3.5% reduction in vegetation cover between 1988 and 2022, alongside an 11.5% increase in “built-up” areas and an 8% decrease in the “others” category. This loss of already minimal vegetation raises significant concerns about environmental degradation and the exacerbation of desertification risks. Interestingly, urban expansion showed no significant correlation with population growth (r = 0.29, p > 0.5), suggesting that other factors, such as economic activities, infrastructure development, and land use policies, drive land conversion. Edge expansion emerged as the dominant growth type, with a significant directional preference (Chi-Square = 2334.41, p < 0.001) toward major roads and areas with higher accessibility to public services. These findings emphasize the need for strategic urban planning and land management policies to address the drivers of unplanned expansion. Prioritizing sustainable infrastructure development, enforcing land use regulations, and conserving natural landscapes are critical to balancing urban growth with environmental preservation, ensuring resilience and sustainability in Zinder. Full article

Rapid urbanization and changing land use dynamics require robust tools for projecting and analyzing future land use scenarios to support sustainable urban development. This study introduces an integrated modeling framework that combines the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with Markov Chain (MC) analysis to simulate land use and land cover (LULC) changes for Montreal Island, Canada. This framework leverages historical data, scenario-based adjustments, and spatial drivers, providing urban planners and policymakers with a tool to evaluate the potential impacts of land use policies. Three scenarios—sustainable, industrial, and baseline—are developed to illustrate distinct pathways for Montreal’s urban development, each reflecting different policy priorities and economic emphases. The integrated MC-PLUS model achieved a high accuracy level, with an overall accuracy of 0.970 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.963 when validated against actual land use data from 2020. The findings indicate that sustainable policies foster more contiguous green spaces, enhancing ecological connectivity, while industrial-focused policies promote the clustering of commercial and industrial zones, often at the expense of green spaces. This study underscores the model’s potential as a valuable decision-support tool in urban planning, allowing for the scenario-driven exploration of LULC dynamics with high spatial precision. Future applications and enhancements could expand its relevance across diverse urban contexts globally. Full article

Urban green spaces (UGSs) are integral to urban ecosystems, providing multiple benefits to human well-being. However, previous studies mainly focus on the quantity or quality of UGSs, with less emphasis on a comprehensive analysis. This study systematically examined the spatiotemporal UGS dynamics in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRDUA) in China from the perspectives of the area, spatial configuration, and quality, using the high spatial resolution (30 m) Landsat-derived land-cover data and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data during 1985–2021. Results showed the UGS area in both the old urban districts and expanded urban areas across all nine cities in the PRDUA has experienced a dramatic reduction from 1985 to 2021, primarily due to the conversion of cropland and forest into impervious surfaces. Spatially, the fragmentation trend of UGSs initially increased and then weakened around 2010 in nine cities, but with an inconsistent fragmentation process across different urban areas. In the old urban districts, the fragmentation was mainly due to the loss of large patches; in contrast, it was caused by the division of large patches in the expanded urban areas of most cities. The area-averaged NDVI showed a general upward trend in urban areas in nearly all cities, and the greening trend in the old urban districts was more prevalent than that in the expanded urban areas, suggesting the negative impacts of urbanization on NDVI have been balanced by the positive effects of climate change, urbanization, and greening initiatives in the PRDUA. These findings indicate that urban greening does not necessarily correspond to the improvement in UGS states. We therefore recommend incorporating the three-dimensional analytical framework into urban ecological monitoring and construction efforts to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of UGS states and support effective urban green infrastructure stewardship. Full article

Floods are one of the most devastating natural hazards that have intensified due to land use land cover (LULC) changes in recent years. Flood risk assessment is a crucial task for disaster management in flood-prone areas. In this study, we proposed a flood risk assessment framework that combines flood vulnerability, hazard, and damages under long-term LULC changes in the Tajan watershed, northern Iran. The research analyzed historical land use change trends and predicted changes up to 2040 by employing a Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and land change modeling. The flood vulnerability map was generated using the Random Forest model, incorporating historical data from 332 flooded locations and 12 geophysical and anthropogenic flood factors under LULC change scenarios. The potential flood damage costs in residential and agricultural areas, considering long-term LULC changes, were calculated using the HEC-RAS hydraulic model and a global damage function. The results revealed that unplanned urban growth, agricultural expansion, and deforestation near the river downstream amplify flood risk in 2040. High and very high flood vulnerability areas would increase by 43% in 2040 due to human activities and LULC changes. Estimated annual flood damage for agriculture and built-up areas was projected to surge from USD 162 million to USD 376 million and USD 91 million to USD 220 million, respectively, considering 2021 and 2040 land use change scenarios in the flood-prone region. This research highlights the importance of land use planning in mitigating flood-associated risks, both in the studied area and other flood-prone regions. Full article

Climate change is expected to alter the timing and intensity of precipitation and river discharge patterns, leading to hydrological extremes. Compared to forested watersheds, highly urbanized and cultivated areas are prone to sediment and nutrient loads from agricultural fields, impacting river water quality. On the other hand, prolonged low discharge periods limit the rivers’ dilution capacity, and result in hyporheic water stagnation and the accumulation of metabolic end products. Hydrological extremes may, therefore, produce severe implications for river water quality and, consequently, for aquatic life; however, this important aspect is poorly explored in the literature. In this context, three boreal streams that represent spawning and juvenile rearing habitats for anadromous salmonids were analyzed comparatively with respect to land use, anthropization level, and seasonal variability in water chemistry, during low and high discharge events. A set of chemical parameters depicting the water quality are discussed in relation to different land cover features, high discharge events, and seasonality. Finally, potential negative implications for the incubation period of salmonid embryos and juvenile rearing are outlined. Full article

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), has resulted in dramatic changes in human lifestyles and the geographic distribution of populations. However, despite the unequal impact of COVID-19 across urban spaces, research on the association between socioeconomic disparities in the usage of various types of urban amenities during the pandemic is limited. Thus, this study utilized mobile phone data and land use/land cover (LULC) data to investigate COVID-19-induced changes in the hot spots of the daytime and nighttime populations of two districts in Seoul, South Korea: Gangnam (a high-income community) and Gangbuk (a low-income community). First, the differences between Gangnam and Gangbuk in the LULC and mobile phone data, before and during the pandemic, were statistically analyzed by age. Second, the areas with significantly increased mobile phone-based populations during COVID-19 were identified using a hot spot analysis method and Welch’s t-test. This study identified that there were significant disparities in the use of green spaces during the pandemic, with a higher percentage of the mobile phone-based population in Gangnam than Gangbuk. Youths and adults in Gangnam were more likely to visit schools and enjoy physical activities in forests and open spaces during the pandemic, whereas there was no such increase in Gangbuk. The findings contribute to the understanding of the impact of COVID-19 on human behaviors and socioeconomic disparities in the quality of urban life. Full article

Quantifying landscape features and linking them to ecological processes is a key goal of landscape ecology. Urbanization, socio-economic growth, political influences, and morphology have extended built-up and urban regions from the core to the boundaries. Population expansion and human activity in districts have increased outlying areas and living space borders, segmenting the urban area and affecting the local ecosystem. Current space-based remote sensing (RS) techniques could be used to visualize conditions and future prognoses for district growth to plan the infrastructure. The Land Use Land Cover (LULC) patterns in the Sonipat district, located within the National Capital Region (NCR), were examined using RS data from 2011 (Landsat 7) and 2021 (Sentinel-2) and analyzed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform. LULC datasets for both years were generated, followed by calculations of landscape metrics to evaluate changes across the study area. These metrics, computed using R software version 4.4.2, include analyses at three levels: five metrics at the patch level, five at the landscape level, and nine at the class level. This paper provides detailed insights into these landscape metrics, illustrating the extent and nature of landscape changes within the study area over the decade. Aggregation and fragmentation are observed in the study area, as the results indicate that urban, fallow, and barren areas have merged into larger, contiguous patches over time. This shows a consolidation of smaller patches into more extensive, connected land cover areas. Fragmentation is described as occurring between 2011 and 2021, especially in the cropland LULC class, where the landscape was divided into smaller, isolated patches. This means that larger, continuous land cover types were broken down into numerous smaller patches, increasing the overall patchiness and separation across the area, which might have an ecological impact. Landscape metrics and spatial-temporal monitoring of the landscape would aid the district council and planners in better planning and livelihood sustainability. Full article

Although extensive interventions are being made to protect forests, many developing countries, including Ethiopia, face persistent forest conservation challenges, particularly where local communities heavily rely on forests for their livelihoods. Recognizing the urgency of this issue, the government of Ethiopia introduced Participatory Forest Management (PFM) and devolved forest management responsibilities to enhance forest conservation. Therefore, investigating the impacts of PFM on forest covers is important. To this end, our research is based on an analysis of the land use/land cover changes (LULCCs) over the last 23 years in selected forest sites of Adaba–Dodola and their implications for the implementation of REDD+. This study examines the difference in forest cover changes between PFM and non-PFM sites within and between the study periods. Landsat images from 2000, 2012, and 2023 were analysed to detect LULCCs. Overall, the results from the comparison analysis indicate that in the period of 2000–2023, forest lands decreased by 5.22% in non-PFM sites, while they increased by 5.89% in PFM sites. On the other hand, agricultural lands experienced a notable increase of 9.64% in non-PFM sites but decreased by 1.65% in PFM sites. The increase in the forest cover is attributed to the effectiveness of PFM in halting deforestation and promoting forest conservation compared to non-PFM sites. Thus, the PFM approach is a tool for preserving forest ecosystems and mitigating the adverse effects of deforestation and forest degradation; therefore, this strategy could be used as a driving wheel for the implementation of REDD+. Full article

Climate change and land degradation (LD) are some of the most critical challenges for humanity. Land degradation (LD) is the focus of the United Nations (UN) Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 15: Life on Land). Land degradation is composed of inherent and anthropogenic LD, which are both impacted by inherent soil quality (SQ) and climate. Conventional LD analysis does not take into account inherent SQ because it is not the result of land use/land cover change (LULC), which can be tracked using remote sensing platforms. Furthermore, traditional LD analysis does not link anthropogenic LD to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses one of the indicators for LD for SDG 15 (15.3.1: Proportion of land that is degraded over the total land area) to demonstrate how to account for inherent SQ in anthropogenic LD with corresponding GHG emissions over time using the state of Arizona (AZ) as a case study. The inherent SQ of AZ is skewed towards low SQ soils (Entisols: 29.3%, Aridisols: 49.4%), which, when combined with climate, define the inherent LD status. Currently, 8.6% of land in AZ has experienced anthropogenic LD primarily because of developments (urbanization) (42.8%) and agriculture (32.2%). All six soil orders have experienced varying degrees of anthropogenic LD. All land developments in AZ can be linked to damages from LD, with 4862.6 km² developed, resulting in midpoint losses of 8.7 × 10¹⁰ kg of total soil carbon (TSC) and a midpoint social cost of carbon dioxide emissions (SC-CO₂) of $14.7B (where B = billion = 10⁹, USD). Arizona was not land degradation neutral (LDN) based on an increase (+9.6%) in the anthropogenic LD overall and an increase in developments (+29.5%) between 2001 and 2021. Considering ongoing climate change impacts in AZ, this increase in urbanization represents reverse climate change adaptation (RCCA) because of the increased population. The state of AZ has 82.0% of the total state area for nature-based solutions (NBS). However, this area is dominated by soils with inherently low SQ (e.g., Entisols, Aridisols, etc.), which complicates efforts for climate change adaptation. Full article

The combined pressures of climate change and human activities have exacerbated ecological risks in fragile and sensitive areas. Assessing the ecological restoration status of key nature reserves and developing a new conservation and development framework are fundamental for achieving ecological civilization and enhancing sustainability. As an ecological security barrier in the northwestern alpine region, Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNP), is of great significance for maintaining the sustainable ecological environment of western China. By measuring changes in ecological land use and monitoring key vegetation indicator trends in QMNP, we constructed the Regional Ecological Resilience Indicator (RERI) and proposed a new restoration and restoration framework. The results show that: (1) the ecological land restoration in QMNP was remarkable, with a total of 721.76 km² of non-ecological land converted to ecological land, representing a 1.44% increase. Forest restoration covered 110 km², primarily made up of previously unused land from 2000 to 2020. (2) The average NDVI value increased by 0.025. Regions showing productivity growth (NPP) accounted for 51.82% of the total area from 2000 to 2020. The four typical eco-migration zones reduced the building profile area by 47.72% between 2015 and 2019. The distribution of high Composite Vegetation Index (CFI) values overlapped with concentrated forest restoration areas, revealing two main restoration models: forest conservation and population relocation. (3) RERI calculations divided the park into three ecological zones, Priority Conservation Area (PCA), Optimization and Enhancement Area (OEA), and Concerted Development Area (CDA), leading to the proposal of an ecological restoration and development framework for QMNP, characterized by “three zones, two horizontal axes, and one vertical axis”. Our findings contribute to strengthening the ecological security barrier in northwestern China; they offer new insights for the long-term, stable improvement of the ecological environment in QMNP and in other critical protected area systems globally. Full article

The role of trees in watershed hydrology is governed by many environmental factors along with their inherent characteristics and not surprisingly has generated diverse debates in the literature. Herein, this conceptual meta-analysis provides an opportunity to propose a conceptual model for understanding the role of trees in watershed hydrology and examine the conditions under which they can be an element that increases or decreases water supply in a watershed. To achieve this goal, this conceptual meta-analysis addressed the interaction of forest cover with climatic conditions, soil types, infiltration, siltation and erosion, water availability, and the diversity of ecological features. The novelty of the proposed conceptual model highlights that tree species and densities, climate, precipitation, type of aquifer, and topography are important factors affecting the relationships between trees and water availability. This suggests that forests can be used as a nature-based solution for conserving and managing natural resources, including water, soil, and air. To sum up, forests can reduce people’s footprint, thanks to their role in improving water and air quality, conserving soil, and other ecosystem services. The outcomes of this study should be valuable for decision-makers in understanding the types of forests that can be used in an area, following an approach of environmental sustainability and conservation aiming at restoring hydrological services, mitigating the costs of environmental services, promoting sustainable land use, managing water resources, and preserving and restoring soil water availability (SWA) when investing in reforestation for watershed hydrology, which is important for the human population and other activities. Full article

Urban green spaces, such as parks, cemeteries, and allotment gardens provide important cooling functions for mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. In the densely populated Ruhr Area (Germany), rehabilitated tailing piles (TPs), as relicts of the coal-mining history, are widespread hill-shaped landscape forms mainly used for local recreation. Their potential role as cooling islands has never been analyzed systematically. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the TP surface cooling potential compared to other urban green spaces (UGSs). We analyzed the factors controlling the piles’ summer land surface temperature (LST) patterns using k-mean clustering and random forest regression modeling. Generally, mean LST values of the TPs were comparable to those of other UGSs in the region. Indices describing vegetation moisture (NDMI), vitality (NDVI), and height (VH) were found to control the LST pattern of the piles during summer. The index for soil moisture (TVDI) was directly related to VH, with the highest values on the north and northeast-facing slopes and lowest on slopes with south and southeast expositions. Terrain attributes such as altitude, slope, aspect, and curvature were of minor relevance in that context, except on TPs exceeding heights of 125 m. In conclusion, we advise urban planners to maintain and improve the benefit of tailing piles as green cooling islands for UHI mitigation. As one measure, the soil’s water-holding capacity could be increased through thicker soil covers or soil additives during mine tailing rehabilitation, especially on the piles’ south and southeast expositions. Full article

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are the primary drivers of ecosystem transformation and have substantial impacts on local livelihoods. However, most research has focused on assessing the intensity of these changes in specific regions using remotely sensed data, thus generalizing trends and often overlooking the nuanced effects on local communities and their adaptive strategies. In this study, we integrated traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with a remote sensing analysis to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of LULC changes and their social implications. Our results indicate that the grassland area in the studied region decreased significantly from 1985 to 2020, primarily due to socioeconomic development and rising temperatures, with a significant negative correlation observed between the size of the grassland area and livestock numbers. This loss of grassland has deeply affected the well-being and sustainability of pastoralist communities, whose livelihoods are intimately tied to grazing resources. A notable shift occurred around 2000; before this period, the grassland area was relatively stable, and camel populations were gradually declining. However, after 2000, grassland loss accelerated, accompanied by an increase in camel numbers. This trend reflects local herders’ adaptive strategies, as they leveraged ecological knowledge to adjust livestock composition in favor of camels, which are better suited to cope with the diminished grassland. By combining remote sensing data with TEK, we provide an integrated, longitudinal perspective on vegetation and livelihood changes. These insights are essential for shaping sustainable development policies in arid regions, where fostering ecological resilience and supporting community adaptation are critical. Full article