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47 pages, 2893 KiB  
Article
Candidate SNP Markers Significantly Altering the Affinity of the TATA-Binding Protein for the Promoters of Human Genes Associated with Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma
by Karina Zolotareva, Polina A. Dotsenko, Nikolay Podkolodnyy, Roman Ivanov, Aelita-Luiza Makarova, Irina Chadaeva, Anton Bogomolov, Pavel S. Demenkov, Vladimir Ivanisenko, Dmitry Oshchepkov and Mikhail Ponomarenko
Int. J. Mol. Sci. 2024, 25(23), 12802; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms252312802 - 28 Nov 2024
Viewed by 645
Abstract
Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most common form of glaucoma. This condition leads to optic nerve degeneration and eventually to blindness. Tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, fast-food diets, obesity, heavy weight lifting, high-intensity physical exercises, and many other bad habits are lifestyle-related risk [...] Read more.
Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most common form of glaucoma. This condition leads to optic nerve degeneration and eventually to blindness. Tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, fast-food diets, obesity, heavy weight lifting, high-intensity physical exercises, and many other bad habits are lifestyle-related risk factors for POAG. By contrast, moderate-intensity aerobic exercise and the Mediterranean diet can alleviate POAG. In this work, we for the first time estimated the phylostratigraphic age indices (PAIs) of all 153 POAG-related human genes in the NCBI Gene Database. This allowed us to separate them into two groups: POAG-related genes that appeared before and after the phylum Chordata, that is, ophthalmologically speaking, before and after the camera-type eye evolved. Next, in the POAG-related genes’ promoters, we in silico predicted all 3835 candidate SNP markers that significantly change the TATA-binding protein (TBP) affinity for these promoters and, through this molecular mechanism, the expression levels of these genes. Finally, we verified our results against five independent web services—PANTHER, DAVID, STRING, MetaScape, and GeneMANIA—as well as the ClinVar database. It was concluded that POAG is likely to be a symptom of the human self-domestication syndrome, a downside of being civilized. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Molecular Biology)
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<p>Flowchart depicting our step-by-step exploration of all 153 human genes associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (hereinafter: POAG-related genes) according to the NCBI Gene Database [<a href="#B36-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">36</a>] as accessed on 10 July 2024. Legend: for the box-and-whisker plots, the height is the interquartile range (IQR) between the first (bottom) quartile (25%) and the third upper quartile (75%), the middle line is the median (50%), the oblique crosses (symbol “X”) are the arithmetic mean, the error bar (symbol “I”) is the 95% confidence interval, the circles depict the dataset in question; K, U, Z, along with <span class="html-italic">p</span> and P<sub>ADJ</sub> are, respectively, the scores of Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Mann–Whitney U, and Fisher’s tests along with their statistical significance without and with Bonferroni’s correction for multiple comparisons; the single asterisk (symbol “*”) and the double asterisk (symbol “**”) stand for statistical significance at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05 and <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.01, respectively; PAI is the phylostratigraphic age index according to Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (hereinafter: KEGG-based) [<a href="#B59-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">59</a>,<a href="#B60-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">60</a>], the numerical in silico estimates whereof are given in <a href="#app1-ijms-25-12802" class="html-app">Table S1 (see Supplementary Materials)</a>, namely: 1. Cellular organism as the conventional root of the phylogenetic tree of life, 4100 million years ago (Mya) [<a href="#B61-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">61</a>]; 2. Eukaryota, 1850 Mya [<a href="#B62-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">62</a>]; 3. Metazoa, 665 Mya [<a href="#B63-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">63</a>]; 4. Chordata, 541 Mya [<a href="#B64-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">64</a>]; 5. Craniata, 535 Mya [<a href="#B64-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">64</a>]; 6. Vertebrata, 525 Mya [<a href="#B65-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">65</a>]; 7. Euteleostomi, 420 Mya [<a href="#B66-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">66</a>]; 8. Mammalia, 225 Mya [<a href="#B67-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">67</a>]; 9. Eutheria, 160 Mya [<a href="#B68-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">68</a>]; 10. Euarchontoglires, 65 Mya [<a href="#B69-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">69</a>]; 11. Primates, 55 Mya [<a href="#B70-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">70</a>]; 12. Haplorrhini, 50 Mya [<a href="#B71-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">71</a>]; 13. Catarrhini, 44 Mya [<a href="#B72-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">72</a>]; 14. Hominidae, 17 Mya [<a href="#B73-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">73</a>]; 15. Homo, 2.8 Mya [<a href="#B74-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">74</a>]; 16. Homo sapiens, 0.35 Mya [<a href="#B75-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">75</a>].</p>
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<p>Significant correlations between the in silico—predicted (the <span class="html-italic">x</span>-axis) and in vitro—measured (the <span class="html-italic">y</span>-axis) K<sub>D</sub> values of the equilibrium dissociation constant of the TBP–promoter complex expressed as the ratio of their estimates for minor alleles (min) to their estimates for the corresponding ancestral alleles (WT) (see <a href="#app1-ijms-25-12802" class="html-app">Table S4</a> for graphical representation). Legend: the (→) arrow points to rs1143627:T in the promoter of the IL1B gene for human interleukin 1β, a clinically proven SNP marker of predisposition to POAG in Brazil [<a href="#B40-ijms-25-12802" class="html-bibr">40</a>]; dashed and dotted lines are linear regression and limits of its 95% confidence interval, as calculated by STATISTICA (StatSoft<sup>TM</sup>, Tulsa, OK, USA); r, R, τ, γ χ<sup>2</sup>, and <span class="html-italic">p</span> are, respectively, the linear correlation, Spearman’s rank correlation, Kendall’s rank correlation, Goodman–Kruskal generalized correlation coefficients, Pearson’s chi-squared statistic, and their statistical significance.</p>
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37 pages, 4052 KiB  
Article
Should South Asian Stock Market Investors Think Globally? Investigating Safe Haven Properties and Hedging Effectiveness
by Md. Abu Issa Gazi, Md. Nahiduzzaman, Sanjoy Kumar Sarker, Mohammad Bin Amin, Md. Ahsan Kabir, Fadoua Kouki, Abdul Rahman bin S Senathirajah and László Erdey
Economies 2024, 12(11), 309; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12110309 - 15 Nov 2024
Viewed by 1086
Abstract
In this study, we examine the critical question of whether global equity and bond assets (both green and non-green) offer effective hedging and safe haven properties against stock market risks in South Asia, with a focus on Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. [...] Read more.
In this study, we examine the critical question of whether global equity and bond assets (both green and non-green) offer effective hedging and safe haven properties against stock market risks in South Asia, with a focus on Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The increasing integration of global financial markets and the volatility experienced during recent economic crises raise important questions regarding the resilience of South Asian markets and the potential protective role of global assets. Drawing on methods like VaR and CVaR tail risk estimators, the DCC-GJR-GARCH time-varying connectedness approach, and cost-effectiveness tools for hedging, we analyze data spanning from 2014 to 2022 to assess these relationships comprehensively. Our findings demonstrate that stock markets in Bangladesh experience lower levels of downside risk in each quantile; however, safe haven properties from the global financial markets are effective for Bangladeshi, Indian, and Pakistani stock markets during the crisis period. Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan stock market neither receives hedging usefulness nor safe haven benefits from the same marketplaces. Additionally, global green assets, specifically green bond assets, are more reliable sources to ensure the safest investment for South Asian investors. Finally, the portfolio implications suggest that while traditional global equity assets offer ideal portfolio weights for South Asian investors, global equity and bond assets (both green and non-green) are the cheapest hedgers for equity investors, particularly in the Bangladeshi, Pakistani, and Sri Lankan stock markets. Moreover, these results hold significant implications for investors seeking to optimize portfolios and manage risk, as well as for policymakers aiming to strengthen regional market resilience. By clarifying the protective capacities of global assets, particularly green ones, our study contributes to a nuanced understanding of portfolio diversification and financial stability strategies within emerging markets in South Asia. Full article
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<p>Price dynamic graph of each index [Notes: The vertical axis of the graph represents price, while the horizontal axis denotes the time period].</p>
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<p>Return dynamic graph of each index [Notes: The vertical axis of the graph represents return as percentage, while the horizontal axis denotes the time period].</p>
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<p>Return dynamic graph of each index [Notes: The vertical axis of the graph represents return as percentage, while the horizontal axis denotes the time period].</p>
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<p>Dynamic conditional correlation plots between global financial markets and the stock market of Bangladesh.</p>
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<p>Dynamic conditional correlation plots between global financial markets and the stock market of India.</p>
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<p>Dynamic conditional correlation plots between global financial markets and the stock market of Pakistan.</p>
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<p>Dynamic conditional correlation plots between global financial markets and the stock market of Sri Lanka.</p>
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23 pages, 4694 KiB  
Technical Note
Arthroscopic Bone Block and Arthroscopic Latarjet for Anterior Shoulder Dislocation—Technical Note with Tricks and Tips for Conversion and Successful Surgery
by Umile Giuseppe Longo, Gianmarco Marcello, Ara Nazarian, Joseph DeAngelis, Margaux D’Hooghe and Pieter D’Hooghe
Osteology 2024, 4(4), 179-201; https://doi.org/10.3390/osteology4040014 - 8 Nov 2024
Viewed by 642
Abstract
Background: The treatment of patients affected by recurrent anterior shoulder instability has received more attention in the last ten years, focusing on the management of bone loss, which is crucial in predicting postoperative recurrence risk. Recently, various bone grafting techniques and different fixation [...] Read more.
Background: The treatment of patients affected by recurrent anterior shoulder instability has received more attention in the last ten years, focusing on the management of bone loss, which is crucial in predicting postoperative recurrence risk. Recently, various bone grafting techniques and different fixation methods have been developed to preserve native anatomy and reduce complications. Nowadays, glenoid bone reconstruction is usually carried out via the Latarjet procedure or free bone block technique. While the Latarjet procedure has traditionally been considered the best option, the bone block has been demonstrated to be a successful procedure. Even though the indication to perform a free bone block or a Latarjet procedure may be given preoperatively, in cases where the choice between the two procedures is unclear, the decision can be made intraoperatively, given the possibility to switch from one to another. This technical note aims to outline our techniques for the arthroscopic Latarjet procedure and the arthroscopic free bone block, as well as discuss the indications, benefits and downsides of each procedure. Technical tips and tricks are provided. Methods: A step-by-step thorough description of bone block and Latarjet procedures is provided, as well as a comparison of advantages and disadvantages of each technique and tips to avoid complications. Respective indications are discussed. Results: Both the procedures have benefits and downsides. The arthroscopic Latarjet procedure is the most effective in addressing anterior shoulder instability, but is more elaborate, has a shallow learning curve and can have a high complication rate. The bone block technique is an anatomic procedure with a shorter learning curve but has fewer indications. Conclusion: The Latarjet is currently considered the gold standard for glenoid bone grafting. The bone block technique can allegedly be seen as being “in the middle” of the soft tissue repair and Latarjet procedures. Many factors should be considered when choosing the right surgical technique, and treatment plans must be customized for each patient. More studies with long-term follow-up are needed to evaluate the efficacy of arthroscopic bone grafting procedures in various subtypes of patients based on bipolar bone loss assessment and individual risk factors. Full article
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<p>Glenoid neck preparation. Viewing from the anterosuperior portal, the anterior glenoid neck is abraded using a burr to obtain a regularized surface (right shoulder). A rasp may be used to make the surface as flat as possible in order to fit the graft.</p>
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<p>The glenoid guide. The glenoid guide’s hook end is aligned with the glenoid surface and is placed centrally on the glenoid defect. The correct orientation of the hook will determine the right offset of both glenoid holes. The hook engages the anterior border typically between the three and four o’clock positions in the right shoulder.</p>
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<p>Glenoid drilling and suture anchors positioning. The drills are positioned 10 mm apart, parallel to one another, with a 6 mm offset from the anterior glenoid border. The sleeves remain after the drills are taken out. Suture anchors are now positioned to allow for Bankart repair, which will be performed afterwards.</p>
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<p>Suture guidewire passing. One flexible looped guidewire is inserted into each sleeve. A forceps inserted in the cannula is used to retrieve each guidewire.</p>
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<p>Bone graft positioning. Two Endobutton sutures are passed through each looped guidewire and are loaded on the graft. By pulling the guidewires posteriorly, the Endobutton sutures exit the skin posteriorly. The bone graft is seated flush on the anterior glenoid neck with two round Endobuttons lying flat on the anterior side.</p>
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<p>Bankart repair. The anterior soft tissues are reattached to the glenoid border. This step is fundamental to restore the joint stability. Soft tissue integrity is supported by the bone graft.</p>
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<p>Portals used in the arthroscopic Latarjet procedure. Six arthroscopic portals are used: superior to the coracoid (C), axillary (AX), posterior (P), anterosuperior (AS), anterolateral (AL), and anteroinferior (AI). The posterior portal is created parallel to the articular surface. The anterosuperior portal is created lateral to the coracoacromial ligament. The anterolateral portal is oriented with a direction parallel to the upper portion of the subscapularis tendon. The anteroinferior portal is established along the long axis of the conjoined tendon, located near the axillary pouch. The axillary portal is created just above the axillary crease. The superior to the coracoid portal is created above the coracoid process.</p>
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<p>Creation of anterolateral portal. The right direction for the portal creation is found after inserting a needle aligned with the top edge of the subscapularis directed to the coracoid base.</p>
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<p>Anterior glenoid neck exposure. With the arthroscope positioned in the anterolateral portal, the anterior neck is easily decorticated with a burr inserted in the anterosuperior portal. This serves to obtain perfect match between the inferior surface of the coracoid process and the anterior glenoid.</p>
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<p>Hook of the glenoid guide. The hook is aligned to the glenoid surface and positioned centrally on the glenoid defect, engaging the anterior glenoid border typically at the four o’clock position in the right shoulder. Special care must be taken to ensure the correct parallelism between the glenoid guide and the glenoid articular surface to drill both holes with equal offset from the joint line.</p>
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<p>Bullet positioning. After the guide has been positioned, two bullets are advanced, reaching firm contact with the posterior glenoid.</p>
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<p>Glenoid drilling. Two 2.8 mm sleeved drills are inserted in the bullets and brought forward to emerge from the anterior glenoid. The drills are positioned 10 mm apart, parallel to one another, with a 6 mm offset from the anterior glenoid border. The sleeves remain after the inner drills are taken out.</p>
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<p>Subscapularis split. Using the radiofrequency probe inserted in the axillary portal, the split is carried out with the arthroscope in the anteroinferior portal.</p>
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<p>Split location. The location of the split is at the division between the upper two-thirds and the lower one-third of the subscapularis tendon. It is recommended to limit the split to the muscle. Nevertheless, in case of a large graft or bulky muscles, splitting a portion of the tendon may be needed.</p>
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<p>Coracoid preparation. (<b>A</b>): The pectoralis minor tendon is detached. (<b>B</b>): The lower face of the coracoid is smoothed off using a rasp to obtain a flat surface. (<b>C</b>). A coracoid portal is created to position the coracoid guide. (<b>D</b>): After inserting two K wires through the coracoid, spaced 10 mm apart, the guide is taken out. (<b>E</b>): Two tunnels with a 2.7 mm diameter are drilled over the K wires, which are then removed.</p>
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<p>Anterior Endobutton insertion. (<b>A</b>): A suture retriever loaded with high-resistance sutures is inserted through each sleeve of the glenoid. Sutures are retrieved with forceps located in the axillary portal and brought through the split. (<b>B</b>): Each suture is passed in the respective suture retriever, and, therefore, the sutures are brought through the coracoid holes. (<b>C</b>): Two anterior Endobuttons are pushed and properly seated on the coracoid.</p>
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<p>Coracoid osteotomy. The osteotomy is performed with an oscillating saw, which is inserted in the anterolateral portal. A burr or a chisel can be used before the osteotomy to regularize the inferior coracoid surface.</p>
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<p>Graft positioning. (<b>A</b>) The coracoid graft may not correctly align with the anterior glenoid in the beginning. (<b>B</b>) The coracoid position is adjusted with bone forceps so that the graft surface becomes flush with the anterior surface of the glenoid. The graft must be carefully positioned. If the graft is placed too far to the side and overlaps the joint space, it can lead to early onset of osteoarthritis; conversely, positioning the graft too far inwards can create unfavorable mechanics in the shoulder joint, increasing the chances of recurrent instability.</p>
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22 pages, 3454 KiB  
Article
An Applied Analysis of Securing 5G/6G Core Networks with Post-Quantum Key Encapsulation Methods
by Paul Scalise, Robert Garcia, Matthew Boeding, Michael Hempel and Hamid Sharif
Electronics 2024, 13(21), 4258; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics13214258 - 30 Oct 2024
Viewed by 1220
Abstract
Fifth Generation (5G) cellular networks have been adopted worldwide since the rollout began around 2019. It brought with it many innovations and new services, such as Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Ultra Reliable and Low-Latency Communications (URLLC), and Massive Internet of Things (mIoT). Furthermore, [...] Read more.
Fifth Generation (5G) cellular networks have been adopted worldwide since the rollout began around 2019. It brought with it many innovations and new services, such as Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Ultra Reliable and Low-Latency Communications (URLLC), and Massive Internet of Things (mIoT). Furthermore, 5G introduced a more scalable approach to network operations using fully software-based Virtualized Network Functions (VNF) in Core Networks (CN) rather than the prior hardware-based approach. However, while this shift towards a fully software-based system design provides numerous significant benefits, such as increased interoperability, scalability, and cost-effectiveness, it also brings with it an increased cybersecurity risk. Security is crucial to maintaining trust between vendors, operators, and consumers. Cyberattacks are rapidly increasing in number and sophistication, and we are seeing a shift towards zero-trust approaches. This means that even communications between VNFs inside a 5G core must be scrutinized and hardened against attacks, especially with the advent of quantum computers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), over the past 10 years, has led efforts to standardize post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to protect against quantum attacks. This paper covers a custom implementation of the open-source free5GC CN, to expand its HTTPS capabilities for VNFs by introducing PQC Key Encapsulation Methods (KEM) for Transport Layer Security (TLS) v1.3. This paper provides the details of this integration with a focus on the latency of different PQC KEMs in initial handshakes between VNFs, on packet size, and the implications in a 5G environment. This work also conducts a security comparison between the PQC-equipped free5GC and other open-source 5G CNs. The presented results indicate a negligible increase in UE connection setup duration and a small increase in connection setup data requirements, strongly indicating that PQC KEM’s benefits far outweigh any downsides when integrated into 5G and 6G core services. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating PQC into an open-source 5G core. Furthermore, the results from this effort demonstrate that employing PQC ciphers for securing VNF communications results in only a negligible impact on latency and bandwidth usage, thus demonstrating significant benefits to 5G cybersecurity. Full article
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<p>A 5G system overview and the inclusion of post-quantum cryptography for secure end-to-end and control communications.</p>
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<p>Addition and analysis of Post-Quantum Cryptography in a 5G Core Network.</p>
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<p>Steps taken in the discovery, integration, validation, and analysis of PQC in 5G core networks.</p>
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<p>Openssl.cnf with the edited files highlighted to enable OQS.</p>
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<p>Essential PQC free5GC CN VNFs up during runtime.</p>
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<p>UE Connection times measured with no encryption, X25519, PQC and Hybrid PQC KEMs in the CN.</p>
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<p>Measurement of Megabytes of data transmitted in the CN during a UE connection while varying the KEM used in TLS 1.3 within the CN.</p>
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<p>Difference in unit time of the KEM latency compared to no encryption.</p>
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<p>Difference in unit time of the KEM latency compared to X25519.</p>
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<p>Example packet captures with relative timestamps of TLS handshakes using p521_kyber1024 (<b>top</b>) and plain kyber1024 (<b>bottom</b>).</p>
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<p>All stages of a typical UE connection with a total of 129 TLSv1.3 handshakes.</p>
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14 pages, 1431 KiB  
Article
Using Precious Metals to Reduce the Downside Risk of FinTech Stocks
by Perry Sadorsky
FinTech 2024, 3(4), 537-550; https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech3040028 - 25 Oct 2024
Viewed by 673
Abstract
FinTech stocks are an important new asset class that reflects the rapidly growing FinTech sector. This paper studies the practical implications of using gold, silver, and basket-of-precious-metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) ETFs to diversify risk in FinTech stocks. Downside risk reduction is estimated [...] Read more.
FinTech stocks are an important new asset class that reflects the rapidly growing FinTech sector. This paper studies the practical implications of using gold, silver, and basket-of-precious-metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) ETFs to diversify risk in FinTech stocks. Downside risk reduction is estimated using relative risk ratios based on CVaR. The analysis shows that gold provides the most downside risk protection. For a 5% CVaR, a 30% portfolio weight for gold reduces the downside risk by about 25%. The minimum variance and minimum correlation three-asset (FinTech, gold, and silver) portfolios (with portfolio weights estimated using a TVP-VAR model) have the highest risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio, Omega ratio) followed by the fixed-weight FinTech and gold portfolio. These results show the benefits of diversifying an investment in FinTech stocks with precious metals. These results are robust to weekly or monthly portfolio rebalancing and reasonable transaction costs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and New Developments in FinTech)
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<p>Time series plot of FINX, GLD, SLV, and GLTR adjusted closing prices.</p>
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<p>Relative risk ratio plots. The suffixes _m and _h denote modified and historical CVaR.</p>
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<p>Risk ratios (at 5% loss) across time.</p>
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<p>Risk ratios (at 1% loss) across time.</p>
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<p>Equity curves—weekly rebalancing.</p>
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<p>Total connectedness index estimated from a TVP-VAR(1) model.</p>
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<p>Network connectedness.</p>
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<p>Equity curves for three-asset portfolios (FINX, GLD, SLV)—weekly rebalancing.</p>
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25 pages, 2301 KiB  
Article
Cryptocurrency Portfolio Allocation under Credibilistic CVaR Criterion and Practical Constraints
by Hossein Ghanbari, Emran Mohammadi, Amir Mohammad Larni Fooeik, Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, Peter Josef Stauvermann and Mostafa Shabani
Risks 2024, 12(10), 163; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12100163 - 11 Oct 2024
Viewed by 1062
Abstract
The cryptocurrency market offers attractive but risky investment opportunities, characterized by rapid growth, extreme volatility, and uncertainty. Traditional risk management models, which rely on probabilistic assumptions and historical data, often fail to capture the market’s unique dynamics and unpredictability. In response to these [...] Read more.
The cryptocurrency market offers attractive but risky investment opportunities, characterized by rapid growth, extreme volatility, and uncertainty. Traditional risk management models, which rely on probabilistic assumptions and historical data, often fail to capture the market’s unique dynamics and unpredictability. In response to these challenges, this paper introduces a novel portfolio optimization model tailored for the cryptocurrency market, leveraging a credibilistic CVaR framework. CVaR was chosen as the primary risk measure because it is a downside risk measure that focuses on extreme losses, making it particularly effective in managing the heightened risk of significant downturns in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies. The model employs credibility theory and trapezoidal fuzzy variables to more accurately capture the high levels of uncertainty and volatility that characterize digital assets. Unlike traditional probabilistic approaches, this model provides a more adaptive and precise risk management strategy. The proposed approach also incorporates practical constraints, including cardinality and floor and ceiling constraints, ensuring that the portfolio remains diversified, balanced, and aligned with real-world considerations such as transaction costs and regulatory requirements. Empirical analysis demonstrates the model’s effectiveness in constructing well-diversified portfolios that balance risk and return, offering significant advantages for investors in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market. This research contributes to the field of investment management by advancing the application of sophisticated portfolio optimization techniques to digital assets, providing a robust framework for managing risk in an increasingly complex financial landscape. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cryptocurrency Pricing and Trading)
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<p>A triangular fuzzy number.</p>
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<p>A trapezoid fuzzy number.</p>
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<p>Credibility of triangular fuzzy variable.</p>
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<p>Credibility of trapezoidal fuzzy variable.</p>
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<p>The presentation of portfolios under different scenarios. Source: Authors’ own estimation.</p>
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<p>The presentation of portfolios under different scenarios. Source: Authors’ own estimation.</p>
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33 pages, 589 KiB  
Article
Forecasting the CBOE VIX and SKEW Indices Using Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models
by Massimo Guidolin and Giulia F. Panzeri
Forecasting 2024, 6(3), 782-814; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6030040 - 14 Sep 2024
Viewed by 716
Abstract
We analyze the predictability of daily data on the CBOE VIX and SKEW indices, used to capture the average level of risk-neutral risk and downside risk, respectively, as implied by S&P 500 index options. In particular, we use [...] Read more.
We analyze the predictability of daily data on the CBOE VIX and SKEW indices, used to capture the average level of risk-neutral risk and downside risk, respectively, as implied by S&P 500 index options. In particular, we use forecast models from the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) class to test whether and how lagged values of the VIX and of the SKEW may increase the forecasting power of HAR for the SKEW and the VIX. We find that a simple HAR is very hard to beat in out-of-sample experiments aimed at forecasting the VIX. In the case of the SKEW, the benchmarks (the random walk and an AR(1)) are clearly outperformed by HAR models at all the forecast horizons considered and there is evidence that special definitions of the SKEW index based on put options data only yield superior forecasts at all horizons. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forecasting in Economics and Management)
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<p>Evolution of <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>V</mi> <mi>I</mi> <mi>X</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math> and SKEW indices in levels.</p>
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<p>Evolution of <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>V</mi> <mi>I</mi> <mi>X</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math> and <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>S</mi> <mi>K</mi> <mi>E</mi> <mi>W</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math> indices in logarithms.</p>
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13 pages, 826 KiB  
Article
The Role of Sex in the Assessment of Return and Downside Risk in Decumulation Financial Planning
by Amaia Jone Betzuen Álvarez and Amancio Betzuen Zalbidegoitia
Risks 2024, 12(9), 142; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12090142 - 6 Sep 2024
Viewed by 981
Abstract
This paper aims to assess the return and downside risk of a decumulation portfolio established at the retirement age of a senior, with a determined lifetime horizon differentiated by the sex of the citizen. To measure the portfolio’s return and downside risk, two [...] Read more.
This paper aims to assess the return and downside risk of a decumulation portfolio established at the retirement age of a senior, with a determined lifetime horizon differentiated by the sex of the citizen. To measure the portfolio’s return and downside risk, two ratios conditioned by seniors’ risk attitude towards portfolio failure are employed: the downside Sortino ratio and the downside risk–return ratio. Unlike other research in the field, this manuscript provides three portfolio compositions catering to different senior investment profiles: aggressive, moderate, and conservative. Additionally, it offers a decumulation horizon conditioned by the sex-specific life expectancy of the individual, instead of offering different scenarios for conducting a sensitivity analysis. Lastly, this study was conducted across three socioeconomically distinct countries: the US, Spain, and Japan. The results clearly demonstrate that both sex and nationality significantly influence the selection of the optimal decumulation portfolio composition aimed at exhausting funds by the senior’s demise. Full article
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for US men and women for an aggressive portfolio (100/0). (<b>b</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for US men and women for a moderate portfolio (70/30). (<b>c</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for US men and women for a conservative portfolio (50/50). Source: authors.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for Spanish men and women for an aggressive portfolio (100/0). (<b>b</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for Spanish men and women for a moderate portfolio (70/30). (<b>c</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for Spanish men and women for a conservative portfolio (50/50). Source: authors.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for Japanese men and women for an aggressive portfolio (100/0). (<b>b</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for Japanese men and women for a moderate portfolio (70/30). (<b>c</b>) The <span class="html-italic">DSTR</span> for Japanese men and women for a conservative portfolio (50/50). Source: authors.</p>
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19 pages, 1451 KiB  
Review
Climate-Related Regulations and Financial Markets: A Meta-Analytic Literature Review
by Linh Tu Ho, Christopher Gan and Zhenzhen Zhao
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(9), 398; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090398 - 5 Sep 2024
Viewed by 953
Abstract
Countries are confronting climate change using climate-related regulations that require firms and investors to disclose their green strategies and activities. Using the Meta-Analysis Structural Equation Modeling (MASEM) technique, this study evaluates the relationship between climate-related regulations and financial markets. The meta-regression analysis is [...] Read more.
Countries are confronting climate change using climate-related regulations that require firms and investors to disclose their green strategies and activities. Using the Meta-Analysis Structural Equation Modeling (MASEM) technique, this study evaluates the relationship between climate-related regulations and financial markets. The meta-regression analysis is conducted based on the outcomes of 52 empirical studies screened from 143 relevant articles. The results show the predictive power of the climate-related disclosure (CRD) laws and environmental regulations (ERs) on financial performance across all studies. ERs create mixed impacts on the equity market and support the debt market. Firm value is affected by ERs either negatively or positively. Methodologies and risk-related factors (market, industry, and firm risks) are important in explaining the relationships between ER/CRD and financial performance. The more developed the market, the less the impact of ERs and CRD on the equity market. Considering industry risk is recommended because different industries are exposed to changes in policies differently. The ER/CRD–firm value relationship is affected by all market, industry, and firm risks. The downside effect of mandatory CRD on the equity market suggests that policy makers, firms, and investors should be cautious in passing a new CRD regulation for transformation towards a sustainable economy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Climate Finance)
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<p>The theoretical model. Source: Authors’ illustration.</p>
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<p>Data collection framework. Source: Authors’ illustration.</p>
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<p>Empirical study search and quality screening process. Source: Authors’ illustration.</p>
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<p>Number of studies by year, 2000–2023. Source: Authors’ illustration.</p>
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<p>Number of studies by market coverage, 2000–2023. Source: Authors’ illustration.</p>
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<p>Methodology and risk-related effects on the ER/CRD–financial market relationship. Source: Authors’ illustration.</p>
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30 pages, 3017 KiB  
Article
Application of a Robust Maximum Diversified Portfolio to a Small Economy’s Stock Market: An Application to Fiji’s South Pacific Stock Exchange
by Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, Hossein Ghanbari and Peter Josef Stauvermann
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(9), 388; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090388 - 2 Sep 2024
Viewed by 797
Abstract
In this study, we apply a novel approach of portfolio diversification—the robust maximum diversified (RMD)—to a small and developing economy’s stock market. Using monthly returns data from August 2019 to May 2024 of 18/19 stocks listed on Fiji’s South Pacific Stock Exchange (SPX), [...] Read more.
In this study, we apply a novel approach of portfolio diversification—the robust maximum diversified (RMD)—to a small and developing economy’s stock market. Using monthly returns data from August 2019 to May 2024 of 18/19 stocks listed on Fiji’s South Pacific Stock Exchange (SPX), we construct the RMD portfolio and simulate with additional constraints. To implement the RMD portfolio, we replace the covariance matrix with a matrix comprising unexplained variations. The RMD procedure diversifies weights, and not risks, hence we need to run a pairwise regression between two assets (stocks) and extract the R-square to create a P-matrix. We compute each asset’s beta using the market-weighted price index, and the CAPM to calculate market-adjusted returns. Next, together with other benchmark portfolios (1/N, minimum variance, market portfolio, semi-variance, maximum skewness, and the most diversified portfolio), we examine the expected returns against the risk-free (RF) rate. From the simulations, in terms of expected return, we note that eight portfolios perform up to the RF rate. Specifically, for returns between 4 and 5%, we find that max. RMD with positive Sharpe and Sortino (as constraints) and the most diversified portfolio offer comparable returns, although the latter has slightly lower standard deviation and downside volatility and contains 94% of all the stocks. Portfolios with returns between 5% and the RF rate are the minimum-variance, the semi-variance, and the max. RMD with positive Sharpe; the latter coincides with the RF rate and contains the most (94%) stocks compared to the other two. An investor with a diversification objective, some risk tolerance and return preference up to the RF rate can consider the max. RMD with positive Sharpe. However, depending on the level of risk-averseness, the minimum-variance or the semi-variance portfolio can be considered, with the latter having lower downside volatility. Two portfolios offer returns above the RF rate—the market portfolio (max. Sharpe) and the maximum Sortino. Although the latter has the highest return, this portfolio is the least diversified and has the largest standard deviation and downside volatility. To achieve diversification and returns above the RF rate, the market portfolio should be considered. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Markets, Financial Volatility and Beyond, 3rd Edition)
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<p>Market capitalization (%). Source: <a href="#B43-jrfm-17-00388" class="html-bibr">SPX</a> (<a href="#B43-jrfm-17-00388" class="html-bibr">2024a</a>, <a href="#B44-jrfm-17-00388" class="html-bibr">2024b</a>) and authors’ own computation.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Max. volatility skewness. (<b>b</b>) Max. RMD portfolio. (<b>c</b>) 1/N portfolio. (<b>d</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe and Sortino. (<b>e</b>) Most diversified portfolio. (<b>f</b>) Minimum variance portfolio. (<b>g</b>) Semi-variance portfolio. (<b>h</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe. (<b>i</b>) Market portfolio (Max. Sharpe). (<b>j</b>) Maximum Sortino.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Max. volatility skewness. (<b>b</b>) Max. RMD portfolio. (<b>c</b>) 1/N portfolio. (<b>d</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe and Sortino. (<b>e</b>) Most diversified portfolio. (<b>f</b>) Minimum variance portfolio. (<b>g</b>) Semi-variance portfolio. (<b>h</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe. (<b>i</b>) Market portfolio (Max. Sharpe). (<b>j</b>) Maximum Sortino.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Max. volatility skewness. (<b>b</b>) Max. RMD portfolio. (<b>c</b>) 1/N portfolio. (<b>d</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe and Sortino. (<b>e</b>) Most diversified portfolio. (<b>f</b>) Minimum variance portfolio. (<b>g</b>) Semi-variance portfolio. (<b>h</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe. (<b>i</b>) Market portfolio (Max. Sharpe). (<b>j</b>) Maximum Sortino.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Max. volatility skewness. (<b>b</b>) Max. RMD portfolio. (<b>c</b>) 1/N portfolio. (<b>d</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe and Sortino. (<b>e</b>) Most diversified portfolio. (<b>f</b>) Minimum variance portfolio. (<b>g</b>) Semi-variance portfolio. (<b>h</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe. (<b>i</b>) Market portfolio (Max. Sharpe). (<b>j</b>) Maximum Sortino.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Max. volatility skewness. (<b>b</b>) Max. RMD portfolio. (<b>c</b>) 1/N portfolio. (<b>d</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe and Sortino. (<b>e</b>) Most diversified portfolio. (<b>f</b>) Minimum variance portfolio. (<b>g</b>) Semi-variance portfolio. (<b>h</b>) Max. RMD with positive Sharpe. (<b>i</b>) Market portfolio (Max. Sharpe). (<b>j</b>) Maximum Sortino.</p>
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40 pages, 4859 KiB  
Systematic Review
A Systematic Review on the Risk of Overheating in Passive Houses
by Ensiyeh Farrokhirad, Yun Gao, Adrian Pitts and Guo Chen
Buildings 2024, 14(8), 2501; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14082501 - 13 Aug 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1859
Abstract
The rise in energy-efficient building strategies, driven by the intensifying energy crisis, has encouraged the development of the passive house (PH) approach. However, existing research highlights a potential downside, the perception of the overheating risk in hot periods, particularly when design and construction [...] Read more.
The rise in energy-efficient building strategies, driven by the intensifying energy crisis, has encouraged the development of the passive house (PH) approach. However, existing research highlights a potential downside, the perception of the overheating risk in hot periods, particularly when design and construction methods fail to incorporate adequate mitigation strategies. This study examines the pressing necessity of addressing overheating risks in PHs through a systematic review. The aim is to identify key factors reported as contributing to overheating, to evaluate recommended solutions across diverse global regions, and to identify methods to reduce the risk. This review indicates that PHs are considered at risk of overheating in the hot periods of the year across many climatic regions, exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. Architectural features, climate conditions, inhabitants’ behaviors, and perceptions of the quality of indoor spaces are important factors affecting PH overheating and should be considered at the design stage. It is concluded that the urban context, building envelope characteristics, and their impacts require greater attention. Based on the knowledge gaps identified, green walls are proposed as a nature-based solution with good potential for mitigating overheating in PHs. More integrated consideration of all factors and solutions can minimize current and future risks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Building Energy, Physics, Environment, and Systems)
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<p>Conceptual framework of study.</p>
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<p>Database diagram constructed according to PRISMA approach (used under terms of CC BY 4.0 License) [<a href="#B13-buildings-14-02501" class="html-bibr">13</a>].</p>
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<p>The climatic spread and frequency of overheated PH cases, according to studies.</p>
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<p>Mapping the geographical spread of overheated PH examples.</p>
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<p>Co-occurrence network of keywords.</p>
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<p>The rise in studies on the overheating risk of passive houses between 2001 and 2024.</p>
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<p>Distribution of methodologies used in studies post-2011.</p>
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<p>Location-based number of overheated cases based on studies.</p>
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<p>The frequency of overheated spaces in PH buildings according to the reviewed studies.</p>
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<p>The frequency of various architectural solutions to minimize the overheating risk in PHs recommended in the reviewed studies.</p>
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<p>An example of a PH plant-covered façade proposed by the authors.</p>
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20 pages, 467 KiB  
Review
Studyholism as a New Potential OCD-Related Disorder: What Evidence Have We Gathered until Now? A Narrative Review
by Yura Loscalzo
Behav. Sci. 2024, 14(8), 684; https://doi.org/10.3390/bs14080684 - 6 Aug 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1521
Abstract
In 2017, Loscalzo and Giannini introduced the new potential clinical condition of studyholism (or obsession toward study) and a comprehensive model including its possible antecedents and outcomes. Then, emphasizing the value of avoiding an aprioristic (addiction) framework in analyzing problematic overstudying, they suggested [...] Read more.
In 2017, Loscalzo and Giannini introduced the new potential clinical condition of studyholism (or obsession toward study) and a comprehensive model including its possible antecedents and outcomes. Then, emphasizing the value of avoiding an aprioristic (addiction) framework in analyzing problematic overstudying, they suggested conducting research on this new construct to unveil its internalizing and/or externalizing nature while also avoiding the over-pathologizing of a common behavior such as studying. Seven years after the first publication about studyholism, growing evidence concerning its antecedents suggested that studyholism might be defined as an OCD-related disorder (or, more generally, as an internalizing disorder). Moreover, the research about its outcomes highlighted that it is a problem behavior deserving attention as it is associated with academic, psychological, physical, and social downsides. Therefore, this paper aims to review the scientific literature published concerning studyholism to illuminate if it might be conceptualized as an OCD-related disorder based on its symptomatology, antecedents, and impact on individuals’ academic, physical, and psychological functioning. Given that it is a new construct, it is of critical value to systematize the findings gathered until now as it can help scholars interested in students’ well-being to have a clear understanding concerning the importance of screening studyholism since childhood, as this will help favor academic success and well-being and reduce the risk for school dropout. Finally, this paper presents an agenda for future research on studyholism, and it highlights the importance of further analyzing problematic overstudying using different theoretical perspectives (such as the behavioral addiction conceptualization) to unveil its real nature. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wellbeing and Mental Health among Students)
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<p>The studyholism comprehensive model by Loscalzo and Giannini [<a href="#B1-behavsci-14-00684" class="html-bibr">1</a>].</p>
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16 pages, 3107 KiB  
Article
Nitrogen Fertilization Alleviates Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) Waterlogging
by Jianbo Chen, Chenchen Zhao, Matthew Tom Harrison and Meixue Zhou
Agronomy 2024, 14(8), 1712; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14081712 - 4 Aug 2024
Viewed by 985
Abstract
Waterlogging increasingly challenges crop production, affecting 10% of global arable land, necessitating the development of pragmatic strategies for mitigating the downside risk of yield penalty. Here, we conducted experiments under controlled (tank) and field conditions to evaluate the efficacy of nitrogenous fertiliser in [...] Read more.
Waterlogging increasingly challenges crop production, affecting 10% of global arable land, necessitating the development of pragmatic strategies for mitigating the downside risk of yield penalty. Here, we conducted experiments under controlled (tank) and field conditions to evaluate the efficacy of nitrogenous fertiliser in alleviating waterlogging stress. Without intervention, we found that waterlogging reduced grain yields, spike numbers and shoot biomass, but had a de minimus impact on grain number per spike and increased grain weight. Soil fertiliser mitigated waterlogging damage, enhancing yields via increased spike numbers, with crop recovery post-waterlogging catalysed via improved tiller numbers, plant height and canopy greenness. Foliar nitrogen spray has little impact on crop recovery, possibly due to stomatal closure, while modest urea application during and after waterlogging yielded similar results to greater N application at the end of waterlogging. Waterlogging-tolerant genotypes (P-17 and P-52) showed superior growth and recovery during and after waterlogging compared to the waterlogging-sensitive genotypes (Planet and P-79). A comparison of fertiliser timing revealed that field fertilizer treatment two (F2: 90 kg·ha−1 at 28 DWL, 45 kg·ha−1 at sowing and 45 kg·ha−1 at 30 DR) yielded the highest and fertilizer treatment three (F3: 45 kg·ha−1 at sowing and 45 kg·ha−1 at 30 DR) recovered the lowest yield and spike number, while fertilizer treatment one (F1: 45 kg·ha−1 at 28 DWL, 45 kg·ha−1 at 0 DR, 45 kg·ha−1 at sowing and 45 kg·ha−1 at 30 DR) and four (F4: 90 kg·ha−1 at 0 DR, 45 kg·ha−1 at sowing and 45 kg·ha−1 at 30 DR) had the highest shoot biomass in the field. Treatment five (T5: 180 kg·ha−1 at 0 DR, 30 kg·ha−1 at sowing and 90 kg·ha−1 at 30 DR) presented the most favourable results in the tank. Our results provide rigorous evidence that long periods of waterlogging caused significant yield penalty, mainly due to decreased spike numbers. We contend that increasing fertiliser rates during waterlogging up to 90 kg·ha−1 can provoke crop growth and mitigate waterlogging-induced grain yield losses, and is more beneficial than applying nitrogen post-waterlogging. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Crop Breeding and Genetics)
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<p>Effect of waterlogging and fertiliser on grain yield in the field under waterlogging (<b>a</b>) and control conditions (<b>b</b>). Four genotypes, P-17, P-52, P-79 and Planet, were used in field trials with four different fertiliser treatments. The letters indicate significance at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05, and the lines are error bars at a probability level of 0.05 (same as all the figures below). Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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<p>Effect of waterlogging and fertiliser treatments on grain yield in the tank under waterlogged condition (<b>a</b>) and control (<b>b</b>). Two genotypes were P-52 and Planet. A total of five fertiliser treatments were conducted with four replicates. Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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<p>Effects of waterlogging and fertiliser treatment on 1000-grain weight with (<b>a</b>) and without (<b>b</b>) waterlogging in the field, and with (<b>c</b>) and without (<b>d</b>) waterlogging in the tank. Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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<p>Average spike number per plant at maturity across fertiliser treatments in field trial under waterlogging (<b>a</b>) and control (<b>b</b>) treatments, and in the tank trial under waterlogging (<b>c</b>) and control (<b>d</b>) treatments. Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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<p>Average grain numbers per spike at maturity across fertiliser treatments in field trial under waterlogging (<b>a</b>) and control (<b>b</b>) treatments, and in the tank trial under waterlogging (<b>c</b>) and control (<b>d</b>) treatments. Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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<p>Impacts of fertiliser on average shoot biomass in the presence of waterlogging (<b>a</b>) and without waterlogging (<b>b</b>) in the field, and in the presence of waterlogging (<b>c</b>) and without waterlogging (<b>d</b>) in the tank at 28 DWL. Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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<p>Impacts of fertiliser on shoot biomass of 10 plants in the presence of waterlogging (<b>a</b>) and without waterlogging (<b>b</b>) in the field, and in the presence of waterlogging (<b>c</b>) and without waterlogging (<b>d</b>) in the tank at harvest. Different letters indicate significant differences at <span class="html-italic">p</span> &lt; 0.05.</p>
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24 pages, 2791 KiB  
Article
Optimal Resilience and Risk-Driven Strategies for Pre-Disaster Protection of Electric Power Systems against Uncertain Disaster Scenarios
by Chen Wang, Chao Zhang, Ling Luo, Xiaoman Qi and Jingjing Kong
Energies 2024, 17(15), 3619; https://doi.org/10.3390/en17153619 - 23 Jul 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 915
Abstract
Pre-disaster protection strategies are essential for enhancing the resilience of electric power systems against natural disasters. Considering the budgets for protection strategies, the dependency of other infrastructure systems on electricity, and the uncertainty of disaster scenarios, this paper develops risk-neutral and risk management [...] Read more.
Pre-disaster protection strategies are essential for enhancing the resilience of electric power systems against natural disasters. Considering the budgets for protection strategies, the dependency of other infrastructure systems on electricity, and the uncertainty of disaster scenarios, this paper develops risk-neutral and risk management models of strategies for pre-disaster protection. The risk-neutral model is a stochastic model designed to maximize the expected value of resilience (EVR) of the integrated system. The risk management model is a multi-objective model prioritizing the minimization of risk metrics as a secondary goal alongside maximizing the EVR. A case study conducted on the energy infrastructure systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) validates the effectiveness of the models. The findings reveal the following: (i) increasing the budget enhances the EVR of the integrated system; however, beyond a certain budget threshold, the incremental benefits to the EVR significantly diminish; (ii) reducing the value of the downside risk often results in an increase in the EVR, with the variation in Pareto-optimal solutions between the two objectives being non-linear; and (iii) whether for the risk-neutral or risk management protection strategies, there are reasonable budgets when considering disaster intensity and the cost of protection measures. The models can help decision-makers to select effective protection measures for natural disasters. Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Resilient Civil Infrastructure)
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<p>Steps for developing pre-disaster protection strategies.</p>
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<p>GTA electricity–gas–oil infrastructure spatial network.</p>
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<p>Hurricane scenarios with different travel directions.</p>
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<p>Sensitivity of within-cluster sum of distance.</p>
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<p>EVR values of systems for strategies derived from two objectives across different budgets. (<b>a</b>) Budget = USD 2 × 10<sup>7</sup>; (<b>b</b>) budget = USD 4 × 10<sup>7</sup>; (<b>c</b>) budget = USD 6 × 10<sup>7</sup>; and (<b>d</b>) budget = USD 8 × 10<sup>7</sup>.</p>
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<p>The Pareto-optimal curve for the downside risk and the EVP of the integrated system.</p>
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<p>Changes in the EVR of the integrated system with different budgets and wind speeds.</p>
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<p>Changes in the Pareto-optimal curve with different budgets.</p>
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16 pages, 1265 KiB  
Article
The Asymmetric Tail Risk Spillover from the International Soybean Market to China’s Soybean Industry Chain
by Shaobin Zhang and Baofeng Shi
Agriculture 2024, 14(7), 1198; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14071198 - 21 Jul 2024
Viewed by 1301
Abstract
China is the largest soybean importer and consumer in the world. Soybean oil is the most-consumed vegetable oil in China, while soybean meal is the most important protein feed raw material in China, which affects the costs of animal husbandry. Volatility in the [...] Read more.
China is the largest soybean importer and consumer in the world. Soybean oil is the most-consumed vegetable oil in China, while soybean meal is the most important protein feed raw material in China, which affects the costs of animal husbandry. Volatility in the international soybean market would generate risk spillovers to China’s soybean industrial chain. This paper analyzed the channel of risk spillover from the international soybean market to China’s soybean industry chain and the asymmetry of the risk spillover. The degree of risk spillover from the international soybean market to the Chinese soybean industry chain was measured by the Copula–CoVaR model. The moderating role of inventory and demand in asymmetric risk spillovers was analyzed by quantile regression. We draw the following conclusions: First, the international soybean market impacts China’s soybean industry chain through soybeans rather than soybean meal and oil. The price fluctuation of China soybean market is obviously lower than that of the international soybean market. Second, there are apparent asymmetric risk spillovers from the international soybean market to China’s soybean industry chain, especially the soybean meal market. Third, increasing the Chinese soybean inventory and growing demand could effectively prevent the downside risk spillover from international markets to China’s soybean market. This also explains the asymmetry of risk spillovers. The research enriches the research perspective on food security, and the analysis of risk spillover mechanisms provides a scientific basis for relevant companies to develop risk-management strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Economics, Policies and Rural Management)
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<p>Price trend.</p>
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<p>The value of VaR. <b>Note:</b> <span class="html-italic">Soym</span> and <span class="html-italic">Soyo</span> represent China’s soybean meal and soybean oil markets, respectively. <span class="html-italic">Swinef</span>, <span class="html-italic">Eggf</span>, and <span class="html-italic">Meatbf</span> represent Chinese swine, eggfowl, and meat bird compound feeds, respectively. <span class="html-italic">Esoyo</span> represents Chinese edible soybean oil.</p>
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<p>Risk spillover from the Chinese soybean market to the international soybean market.</p>
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