Proportional Trends of Continuous Rainfall in Indian Summer Monsoon
"> Figure 1
<p>India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded summer rainfall from 1951–2018 (<b>a</b>) Climatology of the number of rainy days (where rainfall > 0.5 mm/day on each grid), (<b>b</b>) Rainfall climatology (cm), (<b>c</b>) Difference between the number of rainy days from E-Period and L-Period. Black boxes numbered from 1 to 5 represent five homogenous regions of India [1 North West (NW), 2 Central India (CI), 3 North East (NE), 4 West Coast (WC), 5 South East (SE)].</p> "> Figure 2
<p>MK test and trends of rainfall (mm/month) over India for summer months for E-Period (<b>a</b>) June, (<b>b</b>) July, (<b>c</b>) August, (<b>d</b>) September, and for L-Period (L) (<b>e</b>) June, (<b>f</b>) July, (<b>g</b>) August, (<b>h</b>) September. On each panel prefix, “E” means, data considered from 1951 to 1984, while prefix “L” means, data consideration from 1985 to 2018 in this figure and the following figures. The blue line shows the trend, while the red dotted lines show confidence at a 95% significance level here. The same nomenclature is followed in all the figures.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>MK test for the number of rainy days over five homogenous regions of India North West (NW), Central India (CI), North East (NE), West Coast (WC), South East (SE)]. On each panel prefix, “E” means, data considered from 1951 to 1984, while prefix “L” means, data consideration from 1985 to 2018. The blue line shows the trend, while the red dotted lines show confidence at a 95% significance level here.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>MK test for continuous rainfall events over India for 1 DAY to 5 DAY and more, (<b>a</b>–<b>f</b>) E-period, (<b>g</b>–<b>l</b>) L-Period. On each panel prefix, “E” means, data considered from 1951 to 1984, while prefix “L” means, data consideration from 1985 to 2018. Continuous rainfall of 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 4 days and N days are referred as 1DAY, 2DAY, 3DAY and NDAY respectively. The blue line shows the trend, while the red dotted lines show confidence at a 95% significance level here.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>MK test for continuous rainfall magnitude over India for 1DAY to 5DAY and more than 6 DAY. On each panel prefix, “E” means, data considered from 1951 to 1984, while prefix “L” means, data consideration from 1985 to 2018. Continuous rainfall of 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 4 days and N days are referred as 1DAY, 2DAY, 3DAY and NDAY respectively. The blue line shows the trend, while the red dotted lines show confidence at a 95% significance level here.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Rainfall magnitude (mm) as detected by (<b>a</b>,<b>c</b>) Extreme/Heavy events (top 90 percentile), and (<b>b</b>,<b>d</b>) Rainfall magnitude as identified by (lowest 10 percentile) over India.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Spatial distribution of rainfall (mm) for continuous 1DAY, 3DAY, 6DAY, and 11DAY for L-period (<b>a</b>–<b>d</b>) rainfall frequency (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) rainfall fraction. Low pressure is dotted by magenta in <a href="#remotesensing-13-00398-f007" class="html-fig">Figure 7</a>d.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Rainfall contribution (in %) from the number of continuous rainfall days to the monsoon season over central India (<b>a</b>) IMD rainfall for 3 decades, (<b>b</b>) 1 to 5DAY and 6 to 10 DAY continuous combined days, (<b>c</b>) IMD rainfall vs. TRMM for the latest decade 2009–2018. Continuous rainfall of 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 4 days and N days are referred as 1DAY, 2DAY, 3DAY and NDAY respectively.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>The date and line of the northern limit of the summer monsoon (climatological rainfall isochrones, orange lines) and area of land under rice crop production in each state (modified after [<a href="#B48-remotesensing-13-00398" class="html-bibr">48</a>]).</p> "> Figure 10
<p>MK test for the number of rainy days over India from June 1 to July 15.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Variations of hydrological parameters such as evaporation (Evapo), total precipitation (Tot-Pptn), and soil moisture layer 1 (upper 7cm, SMOIS-1) for summer 2015 over selected regions of uniform land cover and land use (<b>a</b>) agricultural land, (<b>b</b>) crop land (<b>c</b>) forest, (<b>d</b>) deciduous, (<b>e</b>) urban area, (<b>f</b>) scrub land, and (<b>g</b>) crop land for ten years (2008–2019).</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Dataset and Methods
2.1. Datasets
2.2. Study Region
2.3. Methodology
3. Results
3.1. Trends in Number of Rainy Days and Rainfall
3.2. Frequency of Continuous Rain Events and Their Magnitude
3.3. Variability of Light and Heavy Rainfall
3.4. Spatial Variability of Rainfall Frequency and Fraction for Continuous Rainfall Days
3.5. Decadal Analysis of Continuous Rainfall Days
4. Hydrological and Agricultural Aspects of Surface Rainfall
5. Conclusions and Discussions
- The 1-day rainfall frequency and variability dominate over drought-prone regions such as North West (NW) and South East (SE) parts of India.
- There is a decrease in the number of rainfall days (Table 1) over central India (CI) and the Western Coast (WC) during recent years (1985–2018, L-period). However, the southern region of WC (Southern Karnataka, the boundary of Kerala and Tamil Nadu) shows a decrease in rainy days in recent years, which is an abnormality in the rainfall over the Western Ghats range.
- In July and September, the number of rainfall days and monthly mean rainfall show a decreasing and increasing trend respectively during the L-period over all climatic regions of India. There are few exceptions in monthly rainfall such as an increase in trend over NW in July and a decrease in trend over CI in September.
- The number of rainfall days and monthly mean rainfall decreased over NE in L-period for the summer season. Further, the number of rainfall days decreased in all the months over NE. The monthly mean rainfall shows a decreasing trend in June and July while increasing in August (at 95% significant) and September. On a regional scale, the number of rainfall days are decreased by ~0.1 days/yr and ~0.3 days/yr over CI and NE, respectively, in L-period as compared to E-period.
- The continuous rain events escalated from 1 to 4DAY, while de-escalated for higher number of days (≥6DAY) during L-period as compared to E-period. The de-escalation of rainfall events for higher continuous days show that continuous rainfall shower for a fewer number of rainfall days in L-period than E-period. The magnitude of ≥6DAY continuous rainfall decreased by 10 mm in L-period.
- The trends of light rainfall frequency (LRF) in two periods (E and L) are almost the same, except for the opposite sign, while light rainfall frequency shows a drastic decrease in recent decades, which may have implications associated with ground discharge and agriculture.
- The rainfall for continuous day 11 is most dominant over the regions of maximum rainfall, e.g., WC, NE, and a region of low-pressure-systems. The spatial pattern of rainfall frequency for 1DAY rainfall is almost opposite to the 11DAY over most parts of India. Rainfall fraction for continuous 11DAY is similar to climatological rainfall, where WC, CI, and NE regions receive more rainfall than other regions of India in the summer monsoon season.
- In the 10 years from 2009–2018, ~60% of rainfall is contributed from 2DAY to 6DAY of continuous rainfall, which is 20% more than the rainfall contributed during 1951–1960 from the same number of continuous rainfall days. The rainfall contributed from a large number of continuous rainfall days (>8DAY) decreased in recent years. For 1–5 continuous rainy days, the rainfall amount is increased by 0.9% from 1951–1972 to 1995–2016, while the rainfall is decreased by 0.05% for 6–10 continuous rainfall days.
- The rainfall is shifted towards a lesser number of continuous rainfall days with higher magnitudes. A continuous rainfall of >5DAY decreased in the recent years.
- The rainfall trend from 1951 to 2018 displays a declining trend for the first 45 days (1 June to 15 July) from the onset of monsoon. The total number of rainy days in rice crops season (i.e., first 45 days, crop season, from the onset of monsoon) is decreased by half days during L-period than E-period over India.
- On a daily scale, the rainfall and soil moisture correlation varies from 0.50 to 0.87, while rainfall and evaporation correlate at the range of −0.46 to 0.87 over selected parts of Indian regions. Continuous light/moderate rainfall seems to be a controlling factor for replenishing the soil moisture in upper layer.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Number of Rainy Days | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June | July | August | September | JJAS | |
Northwest | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ |
Central India | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ |
Northeast | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ |
West coast | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓ * |
Southeast | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ * | ↑ | ↓ |
All India | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ |
Monthly Mean | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June | July | August | September | JJAS | |
Northwest | ↑ | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ | ↑ |
Central India | ↑ | ↓ * | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ |
Northeast | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ * | ↑ | ↓ |
West coast | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓ * |
Southeast | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ |
All India | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓ |
LCLU types and Regions | Soil Moisture | Evaporation | Runoff |
---|---|---|---|
Agricultural land–Punjab (75.15°E–76°E, 30.1°N–30.4°N) | 0.60 | 0.44 | −0.36 |
Crop land–Utter Pradesh (78°E–79°E, 27°N–29.5°N) | 0.67 | 0.51 | −0.07 |
Forest–Goa–Karnataka (74°E–75°E, 14°N–15°N) | 0.61 | 0.87 | 0.56 |
Deciduous forest–Assam (92.9°E–93.4°E, 26°N–27°N) | 0.72 | 0.40 | 0.08 |
Urban area–Lucknow (80.8°E–81.25°E, 26.65°N–27°N) | 0.50 | 0.66 | −0.48 |
Scrub land–Rajasthan (70°E–70.75°E, 26.75°N–27.25°N) | 0.87 | −0.46 | −0.08 |
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Kumar, V.; Sunilkumar, K.; Sinha, T. Proportional Trends of Continuous Rainfall in Indian Summer Monsoon. Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 398. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030398
Kumar V, Sunilkumar K, Sinha T. Proportional Trends of Continuous Rainfall in Indian Summer Monsoon. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(3):398. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030398
Chicago/Turabian StyleKumar, Vinay, K. Sunilkumar, and Tushar Sinha. 2021. "Proportional Trends of Continuous Rainfall in Indian Summer Monsoon" Remote Sensing 13, no. 3: 398. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030398
APA StyleKumar, V., Sunilkumar, K., & Sinha, T. (2021). Proportional Trends of Continuous Rainfall in Indian Summer Monsoon. Remote Sensing, 13(3), 398. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030398