Advantage India
Growing
Demand
* Oil demand in India is projected to register a 2x growth to reach 11 million barrels per day by 2045.
* Diesel demand in India is expected to double to 163 MT by 2029-30, with diesel and gasoline covering 58% of India’s oil demand by 2045.
* Consumption of natural gas in India is expected to grow by 25 billion cubic metres (BCM), registering an average annual growth of 9% until 2024.
* Crude oil imports increased by 5.7% and 0.9% during January 2024 and April-January 2023-24 respectively as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
Rapid
Expansion
* India aims to commercialize 50% of its SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) to raise funds and build additional storage tanks to offset high oil prices.
* Indian refiners would add 56 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2028 to increase domestic capacity to 310 mtpa.
* Indian refining capacity has increased from 215.1 Million Metric Tonne Per Annum (MMTPA) to 256.8 MMTPA in last 10 years.
Supportive FDI
Guidelines
*In July 2021, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) approved an order allowing 100% foreign direct investments (FDIs) under automatic route for oil and gas PSUs.
*The Government has allowed 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in upstream and private sector refining projects.
policy
Support
*In budget 2024-25, Rs. 497.25 crore (US$ 59.75 million) allocated to scheme for Development of Pipeline infrastructure for injection of Compressed Biogas (CBG) in City Gas Distribution (CGD) Network.
* In May 2022, the government approved changes in the Biofuel Policy to bring forward the target for 20% ethanol blending with petroleum to 2025-26 from 2030.
Introduction
The oil and gas sector is among the eight core industries in India and plays a major role in influencing the decision-making for all the other important sections of the economy.
India’s economic growth is closely related to its energy demand, therefore, the need for oil and gas is projected to increase, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment. India retained its spot as the third-largest consumer of oil in the world as of 2023.
The Government has adopted several policies to fulfil the increasing demand. It has allowed 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in many segments of the sector, including natural gas, petroleum products and refineries, among others. The FDI limit for public sector refining projects has been raised to 49% without any disinvestment or dilution of domestic equity in existing PSUs. Today, it attracts both domestic and foreign investment, as attested by the presence of companies such as Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Cairn India. The industry is expected to attract US$ 25 billion investment in exploration and production. India is already a refining hub with 23 refineries, and expansion is planned for tapping foreign investment in export-oriented infrastructure, including product pipelines and export terminals.
India’s crude oil production stood at 4.89 MMT during April-May 2024.
Market Size
According to the IEA (India Energy Outlook 2021), primary energy demand is expected to nearly double to 1,123 million tonnes of oil equivalent, as India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase to US$ 8.6 trillion by 2040.
Indian refining capacity has increased from 215.1 million Metric Tons Per Annum (MMTPA) to 256.8 MMTPA in last 10 years. And it is projected to increase to 309.5 MMTPA by the year 2028.
India is expected to be one of the largest contributors to non-OECD petroleum consumption growth globally. The consumption of petroleum products has increased from 158.4 million metric tons (MMT) in the fiscal year 2013-14 to 234.3 MMT in the fiscal year 2023-24.
High-Speed Diesel was the most consumed oil product in India and accounted for 38.6% of petroleum product consumption in FY23.
India’s consumption of petroleum products stood at almost 4.44 million barrels per day (BPD) in FY23, up from 4.05 million BPD in FY22. India’s crude oil production stood at 2.69 MBPD during April-October 2023.
India’s LNG import stood at 30,917 million metric tonnes (MMSCM) between April 2023 – March 2024.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), consumption of natural gas in India is expected to grow by 25 BCM, registering an average annual growth of 9% until 2024.
Investments/Recent Developments
According to the data released by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), FDI inflows in India’s petroleum and natural gas sector stood at US$ 8.19 billion between April 2000-March 2024.
Following are some of the major investments and developments in the oil and gas sector:
- Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri said the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector offers investment opportunities worth US$ 100 billion by 2030.
- As of June 1, 2024, India had 10,941 kms of crude pipeline network, with a capacity of 153.1 MMTPA.
- India’s crude oil production stood at 4.89 MMT during April-May 2024.
- Indian refining capacity has increased from 215.1 Million Metric Tonne Per Annum (MMTPA) to 256.8 MMTPA in last 10 years. Ans is projected to increase to 309.5 MMTPA by the year 2028.
- India’s oil and gas production is expected to achieve a mid-decade peak between 2023-2032, around 2027, driven by the KG-Basin projects operated by Reliance Industries Limited and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC).
- With 12,581 kms of refined products pipeline in India, the Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) leads the segment with 53.84%, as of June 1, 2024.
- The total number of OMC retail outlets increased to 90,165, as of May 1, 2024, from 59,595 in FY17.
- In India, as of May 1, 2024, IOCL owned the highest number of retail outlets (37,511), followed by HPCL (22,050), and BPCL (21,865).
- As of May 1, 2024, there were 25,489 LPG distributors (under PSUs) in India.
- Production of CBM in April 2024 stood at 54.77 MMSCM.
- India’s crude oil production stood at 29.4 MMT during April-March 2024
- India’s oil demand in the year 2024 is expected to see a growth of 220,000 barrels per day to reach 5.57 million barrels per day, up 4.19% from 2023, as per an estimate by OPEC.
- As announced in May 2023, Jio-bp, the retail fuel joint venture of Reliance and bp will sell diesel mixed with detergents and dispersants at Rs. 1 cheaper per litre than gasoil sold by the state-run companies, such as IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL.
- In FY24, the oil sector’s total installed refinery capacity stood at 253.9 MMT up to March 2024, and IOCL emerged as the largest domestic refiner with a capacity of 70.1 MMT
- As of December 31, 2023, Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) had the largest share (62.14% or 17,099 kms) of the country’s natural gas pipeline network (27,516 kms).
- Tata Mining Limited signed an MoU with Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL), to reduce carbon footprint in its operations, and for the supply of natural gas to its Ferro Alloys Plant at Athgarh in Odisha’s Cuttack district. GAIL will supply the agreed quantity of natural gas through its pipeline from Gujarat to Athgarh.
- The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), the downstream regulator, in March 2023, announced that it has amended the PNGRB Determination of Natural Gas Pipeline Tariff regulations to incorporate provisions for Unified Tariff for natural gas pipelines with a mission of “One Nation, One Grid, and One Tariff.” Based on the regulations, PNGRB has notified a levelized Unified Tariff of Rs. 73.93/MMBTU and created three tariff zones for Unified Tariff, where the first zone is up to a distance of 300 kms from the gas source, the second zone is 300-1.200 kms, and the third zone is beyond 1,200 kms.
- In February 2023, Oil India Limited commenced the project for India’s first exploratory oil well in Mahanadi Onshore Basin in Odisha under OALP.
- In May 2022, ONGC announced plans to invest US$ 4 billion from FY22-25 to increase its exploration efforts in India.
- In April 2022, Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Larsen & Toubro and Goldman Sachs-backed renewable energy producer ReNew Power formed a joint venture by signing a term sheet. This JV will develop green hydrogen projects, helping India cut down its carbon emissions.
- Exports of petroleum products from India reached 51.4 MMT in FY24 until January 2024.
- The value of exports of crude oil and petroleum products stood at US$ 44.41 billion. In FY22, crude oil imports stood at 4.24 MBPD, which was worth US$ 120.4 billion.
- In March 2022, the Board of IOCL approved plans to invest Rs. 7,282 crore (US$ 932.6 million) for the development of City Gas Distribution (CGD) network in 9 geographical areas (GAs).
- In March 2022, the Board of Oil India approved an investment of Rs. 6,555 crore (US$ 839.49 million) for Numaligarh petrochemical project.
- In January 2022, Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IOCL) announced plans to expand its city gas distribution (CGD) business, looking to invest Rs. 7,000 crore (US$ 918.6 million).
- In January 2022, Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL), a joint venture between the Adani Group and TotalEnergies, won licenses to expand its City Gas Distribution (CGD) network to 14 new geographical areas, with an investment of Rs. 20,000 crore (US$ 2.62 billion).
- In November 2021, Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd (ONGC) announced that it invested up to Rs. 6,000 crore (US$ 800 million) in its petrochemicals arm (ONGC Petro Additions Ltd.) to meet its equity requirements.
- In November 2021, Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited announced the launch of the Model Retail Outlet Scheme and a Digital Customer Feedback Programme called Darpan@petrolpump. These three oil PSUs have joined hands to launch model retail outlets to enhance service standards and amenities across their networks, which serve over six crore consumers every day.
Government Initiatives
Some of the major initiatives taken by the Government of India to promote the oil and gas sector are:
- In budget 2024-25, Rs. 497.25 crore (US$ 59.75 million) allocated to scheme for Development of Pipeline infrastructure for injection of Compressed Biogas (CBG) in City Gas Distribution (CGD) Network.
- In February 2024, Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi unveiled a strategic investment plan of US$ 67 billion for the Indian gas sector over next 5-6 years.
- On May 21, 2022, the Government announced a reduction in excise duty of Rs. 8 (US$ 0.10) per litre on petrol and Rs. 6 (US$ 0.077) per litre on diesel.
- In May 2022, the government approved changes in the Biofuel Policy to bring forward the target for 20% ethanol blending with petroleum to 2025-26 from 2030.
- In the Union Budget 2022-23, the customs duty on certain critical chemicals such as methanol, acetic acid and heavy feed stocks for petroleum refining were reduced.
- In February 2022, Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas, and Housing & Urban Affairs, Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri, said that India will more than double its exploration area of oil and gas to 0.5 million sq. km. by 2025 and to 1 million sq. km. by 2030 with a view to increase domestic output.
- In 2022, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas launched the ninth bid round under the OALP. Under this round, investors have been offered around 223,031.4 square kilometre.
- In November 2021, India announced that it will release 5 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserves in a concerted effort to bring down global crude oil prices. This is roughly equivalent to a day’s consumption in the country.
- In October 2021, the Union Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas approved a revised project cost of Rs. 28,026 crore (US$ 3.8 billion) to increase refining capacity for the ongoing Numaligarh Refinery Expansion Project from 3 to 9 MMTPA.
- In September 2021, the Indian government approved oil and gas projects worth Rs. 1 lakh crore (US$ 13.46 billion) in Northeast India. These projects are expected to be completed by 2025.
- In September 2021, India and the US agreed to expand their energy collaboration by focusing on emerging fuels. This was followed by a ministerial conference of the US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP).
- In July 2021, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) approved an order allowing 100% foreign direct investments (FDIs) under automatic route for oil and gas PSUs.
Road Ahead
Rapid economic growth is leading to greater outputs, which in turn is increasing the demand of oil for production and transportation. Crude oil consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59% to 500 million tonnes by FY40 from 223.0 million tonnes in FY23. In terms of barrels, India’s oil consumption is forecast to rise from 4.05 MBPD in FY22 to 7.2 MBPD in 2030 and 9.2 MBPD in 2050. Diesel demand in India is expected to double to 163 MT by 2029-30, with diesel and petrol covering 58% of India’s oil demand by 2045. Demand is not likely to simmer down anytime soon, given strong economic growth and rising urbanisation.
Natural Gas consumption is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 12.2% to 550 MCMPD by 2030 from 174 MCMPD in 2021.
Indian refiners would add 56 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2028 to increase domestic capacity to 310 MTPA.
India is planning to double its oil refining capacity to 450-500 million tonnes by 2030.
Energy demand of India is anticipated to grow faster than energy demand of all major economies globally on the back of continuous robust economic growth. Moreover, the country’s share in global primary energy consumption is projected to increase to two-fold by 2035.
References: Media Reports, Press Releases, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, News Articles, International Energy Agency, BP Statistical Review 2020, Union Budget 2022-23
Notes: MMTPA - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, LNG - Liquefied Natural Gas, MMSCM - Million Metric Standard Cubic Meters, BCM – Billion Cubic Meters, MCMPD - Million Cubic Metres Per Day
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