From October 22 to 24, the Russian city of Kazan will host the BRICS summit, where it is anticipated that a new wave of BRICS expansion will be discussed.

This wave promises to be the largest yet, as 34 countries have already submitted their applications to join BRICS, reflecting the growing interest in the organisation. Recent geopolitical shifts have led to a realignment in global politics and the emergence of a new centre of influence.

The upcoming summit is already set to be the most representative in the organisation's history. Leaders from over 30 countries, the UN secretary-general, and representatives of several major international organisations are expected to attend.

Today, BRICS membership is not seen through the lens of risks but rather as an opportunity to be aligned with what many see as the stronger side in shaping the new world order. It is important to note that China, as a key player in the global economy, exerts significant influence on global trade. BRICS also serves as a platform for collective positions on international issues and for developing solutions to global challenges. Furthermore, experts believe the organisation has the potential to create an alternative to the existing global financial system through the New Development Bank, which was established in 2014.

Expansion underway 

As BRICS’ expansion gets underway, currently, under Russia’s chairmanship, a list of countries is being formulated, identifying those that will be prioritised in the expansion and join the nine current full members.

BRICS is an acronym derived from the initial letters of the founding countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The BRICS group was founded in 2006, with South Africa joining in 2011, after the original members, Brazil, Russia, India and China. In January 2024, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia became full-fledged members. Argentina was also expected to join, but following a change in government, it withdrew its application.

Azerbaijan, Turkey, Belarus and Syria have officially applied for BRICS membership. Sri Lanka is expected to do the same on the sidelines of the Kazan summit. Myanmar, Burkina Faso and several other nations have also expressed their intent to join the organisation. Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan have received invitations to join, although Astana has officially stated that the issue of joining BRICS is not currently on its agenda. Western media have linked this to Kazakhstan’s desire to distance itself from Russia, but Kazakh experts insist the matter is purely economic.

According to Armenian media, citing Greek sources, Azerbaijan received an invitation to the BRICS summit in 2022, but its participation was blocked by India. That summit was chaired by China and held in a virtual format. In Azerbaijan, this topic was never publicly discussed or officially commented on. Baku announced its intention to join BRICS during the last Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, which was supported by China and Russia. On August 20, Ayhan Hajizade, the spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced that Azerbaijan had officially applied to join BRICS. This statement followed a state visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Baku just a day earlier.

Baku's desire to join BRICS comes as no surprise. The organisation brings together key trading partners of Azerbaijan and the main investors in its economy. By joining BRICS, Azerbaijan hopes to further strengthen these ties and establish closer cooperation with India.

Bigger than G7 

According to experts' estimates, if all the invited countries were to join BRICS, the organisation would encompass 45% of the world's population and would surpass even OPEC in terms of oil production. Currently, BRICS countries account for nearly 30% of the Earth’s land area and over 30% of global GDP (35.5% in 2023).

Recently, the Russian Ministry of Finance reported that BRICS countries' share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) is nearly a quarter higher than that of the G7. In 2024, it is expected to reach a record 36.7%, while the G7’s share is projected at 29.6%. The average growth rate of BRICS economies, in their new composition, is projected at 4.4% annually for 2024-2025, compared to the global average of 3.2%. In contrast, the growth rate for G7 countries is expected to be around 1.7%.

The Kazan summit is expected to bring decisions on expanding the organisation and intensifying economic cooperation. The main BRICS members are determined to maintain the current pace of collaboration and avoid any slowdown. Given the emphasis the Russian chairmanship is placing on expansion, it is likely that this topic will be a key focus of the upcoming summit. Currently, the conditions for admitting potential members are being developed, and the heads of state at the Kazan summit will discuss and decide on the format for further BRICS expansion.

At last year's summit in South Africa, the decision was made to open the doors to new members and expand the organisation's composition. When BRICS was created at Russia’s initiative, no one could have predicted such a surge of interest in joining. This led to the temporary suspension of new applications and the start of developing the necessary conditions and criteria. Today, it is clear that BRICS is evolving into a significant global platform, and the creation of clear membership criteria is essential, as the number of candidates is likely to continue growing.

A phased plan for full membership transition, including a partnership format, is expected to be developed. Moscow emphasises that BRICS is not merely a club of interests but a union of like-minded nations that share common views on international relations and the role of the UN, and stand against interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states while supporting adherence to international laws rather than arbitrarily established rules. This was stated by Valentina Matviyenko, the chairwoman of the Federation Council. In her opinion, once the criteria are developed, the process of BRICS expansion will accelerate significantly.

Addressing climate change 

While BRICS does not position itself as an organisation opposing Western formats, it does not shy away from developing alternative approaches and adjusting global trends. This includes its approach to one of the most pressing topics on the global stage — climate change.

BRICS countries have adopted a framework on climate and sustainable development. This document covers all the main aspects of climate action, including a just transition, adaptation, carbon markets, finance, science, and business engagement. According to Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, the framework will enable BRICS nations to develop climate change mitigation measures without compromising their economic well-being.

The second important document developed by the BRICS Contact Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, established at Russia's initiative during its BRICS chairmanship, is the memorandum of understanding on the BRICS Partnership in Carbon Markets. This partnership will allow BRICS countries to discuss the full range of issues related to carbon trading, including approaches to infrastructure, methodology, and procedures for validation and verification.

Again, officials such as Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov have highlighted where the interests of the West and developing countries (among them the BRICS nations) diverge when it comes to fighting climate change. 

"All BRICS countries understand that developed nations must stop imposing unilateral green protectionist measures. These measures harm the economies and trade chains of developing countries," said Reshetnikov.

This issue was already raised in the declaration of last year's BRICS summit. The document noted that BRICS countries oppose trade barriers, including those imposed by developed nations under the guise of combating climate change. It stressed that measures to address climate change and biodiversity loss must comply with WTO requirements and should not become tools of arbitrary discrimination or hidden restrictions on international trade, nor should they create unnecessary obstacles to trade.

This topic is likely to be revisited at the Kazan summit. The event will take place just before the opening of the COP29 climate conference in Baku, making the discussion of fair mechanisms to combat climate change and BRICS' contribution to this process highly relevant.

Before that, much will depend on the decisions made at the Kazan summit. It is already clear that BRICS' key stakeholders will not miss the opportunity to transform it into one of the largest international coalitions capable of seriously competing with the Global West.