EagleSpeak

The Long War Journal reports on the little known airstrikes in Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, and Libya in US airstrikes in the Long War, which is interesting for many reasons.

So far in 2018, those strikes are reported as:

Somalia    28
Yemen      33
Pakistan    4
Libya        5

Keeping the pressure on the bad actors is a good thing.

In light of some of our discussion on Midrats with Christopher Preble (about 37:20), a reminder of why sometimes the road to hell is paved with good intentions and unintended consequences:

The United States Army in Somalia, 1992-1994

The United States Army has a long tradition of humanitarian relief. No

such operation has proven as costly or shocking, however, as that undertaken in Somalia from August 1992 to March 1994. Greeted initially by Somalis happy to be saved from starvation, U.S. troops were slowly drawn into interclan power struggles and ill-defined "nation-building" missions. The American people woke up one day in early October 1993 to news reports of dozens of our soldiers killed or wounded in fierce fighting in the streets of the capital city Mogadishu. These disturbing events of a decade ago have taken on increasing meaning after the horrific attacks of 11 September 2001.

It goes on today: The Department of Defense announced May 6, the death of a U.S. Navy Sailor who was in support of a Somali National Army-led operation with U.S. Africa Command.:

Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator Kyle Milliken, 38, of Falmouth, Maine, was killed during an operation against al-Shabaab May 5 in a remote area approximately 40 miles west of Mogadishu.

"Senior Chief Kyle Milliken embodied the warrior spirit and toughness infused in our very best Navy SEALs. We grieve his death, but we celebrate his life and many accomplishments. He is irreplaceable as a husband, father, son, friend and teammate - and our thoughts and prayers go out to his family and teammates," said Rear Adm. Timothy Szymanski, commander, Naval Special Warfare Command. "His sacrifice is a stark reminder that Naval Special Operators are forward doing their job, confronting terrorism overseas to prevent evil from reaching our shores."

Rest in peace, Senior Chief.

Art by Sergeant (Ret.) Jeffrey T. Manuszak from The U.S. Army Center for Military History

Can't keep track of who is fighting whom in the former state of Syria? It's nice to have a guide through the maze of groups like ISIS, JTS which became HTS, etc. One of the best guides is the gang at Long War Journal, especially Thomas Joscelyn.

For example, I recommend reading Jihadists and other rebels assault Syrian regime positions in southern city, a portion of which is set out below:

On Feb. 12, the newly formed Hay’at Tahrir al Sham and its allies launched an offensive

against Syrian regime forces in the southern city of Daraa. The assault was led by two suicide bombers who detonated their vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in the regime-controlled neighborhood of al Manshiyeh. Daraa, which lies just several miles from Syria’s border with Jordan, has long been divided between the insurgents on one side and forces loyal to Bashar al Assad on the other.
***
Al Nusrah Front was the name of al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria until July 2016,

Arrow points to Daraa vicinity. Underlying map Ermanarich

when the organization was rebranded as Jabhat Fath al Sham (JFS). Then, in January, JFS and four other insurgent groups merged to form Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS), or “Assembly for the Liberation of Syria.”

HTS has posted photos (seen below) on social media from the fighting in Daraa, including an image of one of its “martyrs.” HTS identified the suicide attackers as Abu Riyan al Muhajir, a Jordanian, and Abu Muhammad al Ansari. The use of suicide bombers is telling. Although HTS has tried to obscure the role al Qaeda plays in its operations, “martyrdom” attacks are one of al Qaeda’s signatures. Other Islamist groups allied with al Qaeda in Syria have, by and large, abstained from carrying them out.

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s Islamic State, which rivals HTS, is prolific in its use of suicide terrorists. But al Qaeda has been far more selective, only using the tactic in key operations. For example, a number of “martyrs” were deployed during the battle for Aleppo late last year. Their appearance in Daraa likely indicates that HTS has deemed the offensive to be especially important, for one reason or another.

The anti-Assad forces in Daraa coordinate their movements in a joint military operations room known as Al Bunyan al Marsous. (Another, unrelated coalition of forces used this same name in Sirte, Libya.)

A truly excellent discussion of fighting ISIS from the Center for a New Anerican Security 2016 conference

Described as:

With ISIS’ continued push to recruit and radicalize around the globe, this hearing will examine the current threat ISIS affiliates and supporters pose to U.S. interests and allies in Southeast Asia. Multiple recent terrorist attacks and public declarations of allegiance by local militant groups, and a growing number of ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria from the region, demonstrate the potential danger this poses.

Preview of some excellent reporting by Frontline reporter Safa Al Ahmad

Complete video The Fight for Yemen.

Also this (blurb from Frontline):

The Soufan Group's Ali Soufan, who served in Yemen as an FBI special agent, puts the conflict in Yemen into regional context. The vacuum of power in countries like Yemen, Soufan says, has allowed extremist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS to gain influence in several countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

We go from one act of horror to another.

Shabaab massacres dozens in attack on Kenyan university:

Shabaab terrorists attacked the Garissa University College in Kenya earlier today. Initial reports say that approximately 10 gunmen were involved in assault, which left at least 147 people dead and dozens more wounded.
***
A spokesman for Shabaab, al Qaeda’s official branch in Somalia, said the gunmen deliberately separated Muslims from non-Muslims during the attack. “We sorted people out and released the Muslims,” Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab told Reuters.

We see the same sort of thing with ISIS, ISIS video appears to show beheadings of Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya, Iraq's Christians persecuted by ISIS.

Further, it is not enough, in some cases, to be a Muslim. You have to be the right kind of Muslim - 4 questions ISIS rebels use to tell Sunni from Shia:

Whether a person is a Shia or a Sunni Muslim in Iraq can now be, quite literally, a matter of life and death.

As the militant group the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, has seized vast territories in western and northern Iraq, there have been frequent accounts of fighters' capturing groups of people and releasing the Sunnis while the Shias are singled out for execution.

ISIS believes that the Shias are apostates and must die in order to forge a pure form of Islam.

Ah, the joys of being on the "right" side in a holy war.

Of course, this form of holy war also wants to destroy the past, Priceless Iraqi Artifacts Destroyed by ISIS :

ISIS fighters are destroying symbols of pre-Islamic culture, including artifacts from the Assyrian Empire that are over 2,000 years old.

Should you be surprised by this destruction?

No, you shouldn't. In his book, The Crisis of Islam, Professor Bernard Lewis explained it, non-Islamic history is irrelevant to these holy warriors:

The Muslim peoples, like everyone else in the world, are shaped by their history, but unlike some others, the are keenly aware of it. Their awareness dates however from the advent of Islam, with perhaps some minimal references to pre-Islamic times, necessary to explain historical allusions in the Quar'an and in the early Islamic traditions and chronicles. Islamic history, for Muslims, has an important religious and also legal significance, since it reflects the working our of God's purpose for His community - those that accept the teachings of Islam and obey its law. The history of non-Muslim states and peoples convey no such message and is therefore without value or interest.

What is of no value may be destroyed without qualm.

Obviously, this includes non-believers, believers who are viewed as apostate, and "images" from the past before Islam.

More from Professor Lewis on "Muslim fundamentalists" -

The Muslim fundamentalists, unlike the Protestant groups whose name was transferred to them, do not differ from the mainstream of question of theology and in the interpretation of of scripture. Their critique is, in the broadest sense, societal. The Islamic world, in their view, has taken a wrong turning. ***

Such a perception of straying from the "true path" justifies pretty much anything, since being wrong-headed means you are resisting God's will and that means you are an enemy of "God's army."

"Holy" War. Brought to us by people who prefer a certain black and white clarity to having to deal with shades of gray.

The ultimate "if you aren't with us, you are against us."

Nice, short video on the situation in Yemen from the Wall Street Journal:

Sports fans like to follow a winner and will jump on the bandwagon of a team which appears to be headed for success. Should we be surprised, then, that it appears radical jihadists have a similar psychology?

Our friends at the Long War Journal point to IS footholds in Afghanistan in Mapping the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan:

Ever since disaffected Afghan and Pakistani Taliban insurgents began pledging allegiance to the Islamic State during the summer of 2014, rumors and reports have emerged indicating how the Islamic State has expanded its presence throughout South Asia.
***
In mid-October 2014, a small group of disaffected Pakistani Taliban commanders, including the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan’s Emir for Arakzai Agency, announced their initial pledge to the Islamic State.
***
In January 2015, the same disgruntled Pakistani Taliban leaders, this time joined by a few little-known disaffected Afghan Taliban commanders, published a propaganda video pledging allegiance to the Islamic State. Within days of the video’s release, the Islamic State announced its expansion into “Khorassan Province” and officially appointed Hafiz Saeed Khan as the Wali (Governor) of Khorassan. The Islamic State also appointed former Guantanamo Bay detainee and senior Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim as Khan’s deputy. While Khan was primarily responsible for Islamic State activities in the tribal areas of Pakistan, Khadim was based in Helmand Province, particularly in his native village located in Kajaki district. It did not take long before clashes broke out between Khadim’s supporters and their rivals belonging to local Taliban factions.

Read the whole piece to catch the full flavor of bandwagon hopping power grabbers who would bend others to their will.

As noted before in these posts, vacuums in power suck in all kinds of stuff before the most potent of the suckees kill off their rivals.

The U.S. and NATO withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and the feckless approach to Pakistan, Syria and Libya created an enormous vacuum. Like a Saturday morning cowboy movie of my youth, there is little doubt that the innocents will be held ransom by the most violent and ruthless gangs of jihadi wackos. I remember a lot of those movies where a town was held in the grasp of truly awful group of desperadoes until the good guys arrived to rescue them. Generally not a self help issue. Are there "good guys" out there interested in fight a ""holy war?"


Frankly, if the IS thugs take out Taliban thugs I won't miss the Taliban much, except to the extent that such action feeds the IS myth and will convince more radicals to jump on the IS wagon and that means that it raises their threat potential to people and places of importance to the West. See here re Pakistan and IS.

Pretty amazing for a "JV team."

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Carlos M. Vazquez II

Al Qaeda makes the news again, and gets attacked in Syria, as set out here

Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby confirmed Tuesday that the plotting was far along.

“This is a very dangerous group,” Kirby told Fox News. “We had information, good information that they were very actively plotting and very close to the end of that plotting -- and planning an attack on targets either in Europe or the U.S. homeland.”

As for the result of the airstrikes, he said: “We think we hit what we were aiming at.”

More from the Long War Journal:

The US-led bombing campaign in Syria is targeting the Al Nusrah Front, an official branch of al Qaeda, as well as the Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot that is one of Al Nusrah's fiercest rivals.

Before they were launched, the air strikes were framed as being necessary to damage the Islamic State, a jihadist group that has seized large swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq. But in recent days US officials signaled that they were also concerned about al Qaeda's presence in Syria, including the possibility that al Qaeda operatives would seek to use the country as a launching pad for attacks in the West.

Several well-connected online jihadists have posted pictures of the Al Nusrah Front positions struck in the bombings. They also claim that al Qaeda veterans dispatched from Afghanistan to Syria, all of whom were part of Al Nusrah, have been killed.
***
Among the Al Nusrah Front positions targeted in the bombings are locations where members of the so-called "Khorasan group" are thought to be located. Ayman al Zawahiri, the emir of al Qaeda, sent the group to Syria specifically to plan attacks against the US and its interests. The group, which takes its name from al Qaeda's Khorasan shura (or advisory) council, is reportedly led by Muhsin al Fadhli, an experienced al Qaeda operative who has been involved in planning international terrorist attacks for years.

Al Fadhli's presence in Syria was first reported by the Arab Times in March. Shortly thereafter, The Long War Journal confirmed and expanded on this reporting. [See LWJ report, Former head of al Qaeda's network in Iran now operates in Syria.] The Long War Journal reported at the time that al Fadhli's plans "were a significant cause for concern among counterterrorism authorities."

The New York Times reported earlier this month that al Fadhli leads the Khorasan group in Syria.

Unconfirmed reports on jihadist social media sites say that al Fadhli was killed in the bombings. Neither US officials, nor al Qaeda has verified this reporting. The fog of war often makes it difficult to quickly confirm whether an individual jihadist has been killed, wounded, or survived unscathed. Initial reports should be treated with skepticism and there is no firm evidence yet that al Fadhli has been killed.

Read more: here

More on the Al Nusrah Front here:

Al-Nusra Front (also the Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra) was formed in late 2011, when Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent operative Abu Muhammad al-Julani to Syria to organize jihadist cells in the region. The Nusra Front rose quickly to prominence among rebel organizations in Syria for its reliable supply of arms, funding, and fighters—some from donors abroad, and some from AQI. Considered well trained, professional, and relatively successful on the battlefield, they earned the respect and support of many rebel groups, including some in the secular Free Syrian Army (FSA). However, al-Nusra also made some enemies among the Syrian people and opposition by imposing religious laws, although the group has shied away from the types of brutal executions and sectarian attacks that made AQI unpopular. Al-Nusra was also the first Syrian force to claim responsibility for terrorist attacks that killed civilians. (footnotes omitted)
***
Al-Nusra is affiliated with AQ and has pledged allegiance to the organization, serving as its only official branch in the Syrian conflict after global AQ emir Ayman al-Zawahiri publicly disowned ISIS following months of ISIS disobedience to AQ orders.

So, it's not really that the Al Nusrah Front and the Khorasan group just sprang up - but have been around and have enjoyed the chaos of Syria as providing recruiting and a safe haven.

Until now.

Yes, I know the President is due to speak on this topic, yet again, on the morrow.

Still, before that happens, I strongly suggest that you listen to our last Midrats show featuring Bill Roggio:



And the one we did with Bill about 4 months before that:



Somewhere in the more recent episode, it came up that fighting a group like ISIS and its spawn begins, like the journey of a recovering alcoholic, with an admission that you have a problem.

Well, not just a problem - but a problem that is interfering with your life and the lives of the people who depend on you.

My hope for this President is that he truly accepts that fact that ISIS and its ilk (henceforth "ISISI") are a problem that he needs to act on. In other words, that is not a matter of "optics" or "politics" or "my predecessor did it" or one of those "straw men" that his is wont to set up. I would like him to accept the idea that he may not be the "subject matter expert" in fighting ISISI and that he needs to reach out to those who have, by years of experience, gained that expertise. That even if he feels Israel is the source of all problems in the Middle East (it isn't, but he appears to me to feel that way), the solution is not ISISI. That if the Middle East is ready to adjust some borders of countries laid out by long gone empires post-WWI, ISISI is not the path to that. That the slaughter of innocents cannot be justified on the basis of some doctrinal differences between sects or religious groups. That if he can cobble together a coalition, it is one in which the laboring oar is local as much as possible, but with U.S. troops and air power if needed.

The world is a complicated and dangerous place. But we are a part of that - and we cannot pretend it will go away if we say some "magic words" or give a great speech.

Bing West has thoughts on how to kill ISIS (a/k/a ISIL) at "How to Defeat ISIL":

U.S. policymakers must commit themselves clearly to containing, disrupting, and defeating it.

You should read the whole thing.

Mr. West makes many good points, but as with solving most problems, the first step is recognizing you have a problem and then choosing a plan of action to eliminate that problem. I have serious doubts about the ability of the Administration and its aiders and abettors in the press to do that with ISIS, because, as Mr. West notes:

If the commander-in-chief does not perceive a mortal threat and if the press grossly underreports the persecution of Christians and other minorities, then the public will see no reason for our military to become heavily involved.

With the Obama administration, nothing is ever what it was or may be in the future. There is no constancy. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has described the threat in terms of “some of the most brutal, barbaric forces we’ve ever seen in the world today, and a force, ISIL, and others that is an ideology that’s connected to an army, and it’s a force and a dimension that the world has never seen before like we have seen it now.” The Visigoths, Attila, and Tamerlane have a new rival. Obviously this new scourge upon mankind must be destroyed.

But wait: Then Mr. Hagel delivered the punch line. “I recommended to the president, and the president has authorized me, to go ahead and send about 130 new assessment-team members.” Mr. Hagel is holding the rest of our force in reserve in case the Martians attack. One hundred thirty assessors are sufficient to deal with “the most barbaric forces we’ve ever seen.”

It occurs to me that the Administration having charted its course ("withdrawal by date X" and "no U.S. combat forces in country Y"), plods along, adjusting only its portrayal of the facts to rationalize that course. A ship's navigator who failed to alter course to allow for the effects of winds and currents is headed for rocks which cannot be avoided by repeating phrases such as "the plan was to steer 270 degrees and we are on that plan" or "most of the crew likes the course we are on" or "once we steered course 270 and ended up where we were supposed to be."

As noted in Killing ISIS? you need more than an announcement of what you want the end result to be ("We put a bell on the cat!" or ""ISIS must be destroyed") to make things happen. If the U.S. goal is to kill ISIS, then the planners better be put to work to use the tools available to make that happen. If it requires U.S. combat ground forces to cut off the ISIS logistics train - well, conditions on the ground have changed since there were promises made to withdraw our forces from Iraq. The Administration can blame it on unexpected ocean currents or winds or on the way the world works - as in the way bad guys tend to rush in to fill vacuums of power.

Join us at 5 pm (Eastern U.S.) on 21 April 2013 for our Episode 173: The War Returns to CONUS:

The events of the last week in Boston has brought back to the front of the national consciousness what, for the lack of a better description, is known as The Long War.

The threats we face are both domestic, foreign, and increasingly a mixture of both. Communication and transportation has created a breed of transnational threats that are not new, and whose causes, resources, and threat vectors are not as opaque as some may try to make them.

Starting out and working in, what are the lessons we should emphasize to mitigate the ongoing threat? As we continue in the second decade after 9/11/2013, what are we doing correctly, what still needs to be done - and what things are we wasting time and money on for little gain?

To discuss, our guest for the full hour will be Steven Bucci, Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.

Listen live (or listen later) by clicking here.

Now, let's play a little game of probabilities.

What do you think the odds would be of near simultaneous attacks on both a U.S. consulate and a U.S. embassy in two different countries occurring "spontaneously" on 9/11/12?

If you smell a rat, then welcome to the "Long War."

How do you intimidate modern societies?

Riot - and claim it's the modern society's fault for not being sensitive enough to your "civilization."

And,yes, it is time for you to go get a copy of Samuel Huntington's book, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order and read the darn thing, if you want to have clue as to what sort of asymmetric war we've got going on.

 And the ability of the opponents in this war to use our own "fairness" against us is judo-like. We are beating ourselves by being useful idiots.

UPDATE4: What follows is a discussion of the sideshow issue in this matter that pertains to who said what when about "abuse" of "the universal right of free speech to hurt the religious beliefs of others."

You can read it below the break, but the point of my post was (1) the attacks were unlikely to be spontaneous and (2) how we shouldn't let the use of riots cause us to restrict the free speech rights of even useless human detritus like the clown who made the movie that was used as an excuse to stage the riots.UPDATE: See here:

But the mob violence and assaults should be seen for what they really are: an effort by Islamists to garner support and mobilize their base by exacerbating anti-Western sentiments.
***
Protests orchestrated on the pretext of slights and offenses against Islam have been part of Islamist strategy for decades. Iran's ayatollahs built an entire revolution around anti-Americanism. While the Iranian revolution was underway in 1979, Pakistan's Islamists whipped up crowds by spreading rumors that the Americans had forcibly occupied Islam's most sacred site, the Ka'aba or the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Pakistani protesters burned the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad.

Violent demonstrations in many parts of the Muslim world after the 1989 fatwa—or religious condemnation—of a novel by Salman Rushdie, or after the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in 2005, also did not represent spontaneous outrage. In each case, the insult to Islam or its prophet was first publicized by Islamists themselves so they could use it as justification for planned violence.

Reported about 3 weeks ago as Puntland seizes boat smuggling weapons from al-Qaeda:

Puntland authorities announced they captured a ship carrying explosives from Yemen to Somalia on Friday (July 20th), the Yemen Post reported.

Al-Qaeda in Yemen was transporting the rockets, explosives, shells and ammunition to al-Shabaab, said Puntland Minister of Ports and Anti-Piracy Said Mohamed Rage. He said a Yemeni man was apprehended when the ship was seized.

Al-Shabaab announced its merger with al-Qaeda last year, and Puntland's government has been concerned that ongoing al-Qaeda activities in Yemen might extend to its territory, as fighters have been known to travel between Somalia and Yemen.
***

What? You thought al Qaeda was simply going to go away? There's a reason it's called the "long war."

We had one of these as air cover on one of our hikes

Back from a mini-vacation. After rediscovering where I put everything and catching up a little, regular blogging should be back . . . this evening?

In the meantime, enjoy this from Sunday's Midrats, where the guest was Bill Roggio from The Long War Journal which one of my daily reads:



UPDATE:


No, despite the rumors, this is not a picture of me. I was nowhere near the beach. But, yes, it does resemble my preferred beach attire.

Interesting piece from AVIATION WEEK: Weapons Migrate From China to Afghanistan. Not so much the weapons, but the reports of Chinese trainers aiding the Taliban in Afghanistan:

Chinese advisers are believed to be working with Afghan Taliban groups who are now in combat with NATO forces, prompting concerns that China might become the conduit for shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, improved communications and additional small arms to the fundamentalist Muslim fighters.

A British military official contends that Chinese specialists have been seen training Taliban fighters in the use of infrared-guided surface-to-air missiles. This is supported by a May 13, 2008, classified U.S. State Department document released by WikiLeaks telling U.S. officials to confront Chinese officials about missile proliferation.

Photo and weapons info from Sinodefence.com, where it is noted, "The missile has also been produced by Pakistan under license as Anza MK-2." .

Hat tip: Tigerhawk.

Killed on 9-1-2001: A list here.



Remembered at Steeljaw's Place.

From Bill Roggio: American al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn captured in Pakistan: Report - The Long War Journal:

Reports from Paisitan indicate that the American-born al Qaeda spokesman who has been charged with treason in the US was captured in Pakistan's port city of Karachi.

Adam Gadahn and an associate are reported to have been captured during a raid by Pakistani special forces on a home at the Super Highway in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city.

US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal said they believed Gadahn has been detained but would not confirm the report.

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/american_al_qaeda_sp.php#ixzz0hWExpL0a

FBI Most Wanted info on this treasonous future martyr here.