"Historically, standing on each step of the ladder, the AI research community has been terrible at predicting how much farther you can go with the current paradigm, what the next step will be, when it will arrive, what new applications it will enable, and what the implications for safety are. That is a trend we think will continue."
"Historically, standing on each step of the ladder, the AI research community has been terrible at predicting how much farther you can go with the current paradigm, what the next step will be, when it will arrive, what new applications it will enable, and what the implications for safety are. That is a trend we think will continue."
Your best zinger this year :)
Except it's gone both ways. Experts under predicted the jump in LLM capabilities. Just saying, two way error bars.
In fact for the past 10 years, ever since the deep learning revolution, it's mostly gone in the 'underestimate progress' direction.