Yusuf Food security seminar CSPS 14 August

Seminar-CSPS. 20 Aug 2022 Food Security in Bangladesh: Impact on National Security and Muslim History By: Dr M Yusuf Ali, Former BARI, IRRI, CIMMYT, WorldFish Scientist and Consultant of ACIAR, CIAT, FAO and BPC (Email: yusuf709@gmail.com) What is Food Security? FAO definition: Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for a active and healthy life( definition agreed to at the 1996 World Food Summit) Present Food Security Status of Bangladesh Global Food Security Index(GFSI) -2021 • Bangladesh position lowest in South-Asia (Afghanistan not counted) • Overall position(84th) and score (49.1) among 113 countries • Affordability score: 48.8 • Availability score: 58.1 • Quality and safety score: 45.5 • Natural resource & Resilience score: 36.8 How many people of Bangladesh currently facing Chronic Food Insecurity? • IPC, 2022 reported 21 % (34.8 million) of population are facing moderate and acute food insecurity (COVID-19 effect not considered) • 29.5 % population below poverty level after facing COVID-19 (GED, PCB) in 2021 • SANEM,2021 showed around42 % below poverty level after COVID-19 • As per ADB(2019) 20.5 % population was below poverty level(income less than $1.90/day/head)-before COVID-19 • Two districts facing severe food insecurity-Kurigram and Sunamgnaj (at least 20% of total population) • Other most CFI districts are Gaibandha, Banderban, Cox’s Bazar and Jamalpur • Most of others districts are facing mild to moderate food insecurity • No whole district is under minimal food insecurity class Why household face Food Insecurity Households with the highest risk of IPC CFI Levels 3 and 4 (moderate and severe food insecurity)are those who : • mainly depend on low value and unsustainable income sources (which often generate inadequate and unpredictable income), such as unskilled daily labor, marginal farming, high production cost but low product price, or traditional/subsistence fishing, (ARSS, 2018) • live in areas where there is a high recurrence of shocks, e.g., cyclones, flash and monsoon floods, salinity, riverbank erosion, dry spells/drought, • affected by accident or bearing major disease cost of human, animal • due to some social factors(local violence, police /court cases, dowry, lack of soft credit, out of national safety net) • No income earning member(s) in the family Present Bangladesh food production Status Table 1: Bangladesh population, land area, rice production and rice requirement till 2050 Year Population (million)* Rice requirement/year (m ton) Deficit/year (m ton) Import in 2020(m ton) 164.7 Land for rice Rice Rice production(m production available ha) (m ton) as human food (m ton)** 11.42 36.603 27.45 2020 27.99 1.7 2025 172.4 11.3 36.273 27.20 29.31 2030 179 11.18 35.887 26.92 30.43 2035 184.4 11.06 35.503 26.63 31.35 2040 188.4 10.94 35.117 26.34 32.03 2045 191.1 10.82 34.732 26.05 32.48 2050 192.6 10.7 34.347 25.76 32.74 -0.54 -2.11 -3.51 -4.72 -5.69 -6.43 -6.98 * Population source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/bangladesh-population. Rice production and area, yield ton /ha (3.21) data: BBS 2020; Rice requirement per day per person: 466 gram (OECD, 2017) **Rice available for human food: 25 % less than actual production which is used as seed, feed, wastage (FAO, 2011) m = million; ha= hectare (2.47 acre). Cultivable land area decreased/year@ 0.29 % or 24,291 ha (Alam et al. 2015) 250 34 Population y = 0.7925x + 27.734 R² = 0.9466 Rice production 200 33 Rice need 32 31 150 30 Population (million) Rice production-need (Million ton) 29 100 28 27 50 26 25 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Year Fig. Bangladesh population, predicted rice production and need 2050 Table 2 : Bangladesh land area, different crops/meat/egg/milk/fish production and requirement in 2020 Land for different crop production( ha) National production ( ton) Requirement/year Surplus or Import in 2020 (ton) Deficit/year (m ton) Wheat Maize Pulses Edible oil (30% recovery) Onion Garlic Turmeric (powder) Ginger Chili Soybean seed for feed Vegetable Potato sweet Potato Fruits Sugar/molasses All meat Egg (number) 3,32, 389 10,29,000 80,00000 9,00000 54,00000 78, 00000 3,57, 085 3,97,659 49,64,000 4,78,947 1,04,691 12,41,000 1,85,348 19,53,800 28,00000 73,594 2,86,158 7,06, 158 33,244 43,459 62,050 10,308 84, 887 3,00000 96,761 1,58,000 4,34,350 79,100 1,39,000 3,50000 4,78, 138 49,89,000 1,86,15000 4, 61, 538 98,87,000 62, 05,000 24,696 2,46, 000 - 4, 08, 502 49,76000 62,05000 - 5,10,000 28,90000 - 84,40,000 74,37000 - 1765.92 crore Milk - 2057.64 crore 1,19,85000 -1,36,26000 +36,82,000 -12,29000 23,80000 +10, 03000 +291.72 1,54,94000 -35,09000 Crops/product (ton) -69,71,000 -24,00000 -45, 66, 341 -11,36,309 -8,46,200 -4,20,000 -18591 -2,15,113 -276350 -2,11000 6.7 2.0 1.3482 2.7 (double than requirement) 0.7 0.2 0.57 2.3 0.138 (powder) Pulse: 80 gram/head/day, Edible oil: 20 gram/head/day, Potato-100 gram/head/day; Fish -60 gram/head/day, Vegetable: 300 gram /head/day, Fruit: 100 gram /head/day, meat-120 gram/head/day, Egg-104 number/head/year, Milk: 250 ml/head/day, Green chili: 7 gram/head/day, Turmeric: 1 gram/head/day, Sugar: 46.57 gram /head/day Bangladesh Food Security Situation analysis • As par available data Bangladesh is self-sufficient only in Potato, fish, meat and egg • While acutely deficit in wheat, pulses, edible oil, spices, sugar, vegetables(seasonal) and fruits(seasonal and exotic fruits) • However, it is near to self-sufficiency in rice and maize production • Major cereal food- rice demand will increase with population boom, land loss and negative effect of climate change. Only balanced food habit &unit yield increase may decrease rice demand in future • There is large different between per day requirement of rice which often misguide how much rice is needed/year: As per HIES(BBS) it is 367/gram/head/day, 405 gram/h/d(Kabir et al. 2015-BRRI), DAE-487, BIDS-459.4 g/h/d,IFPRI-BIHS-426 g/h/d, OECD-466g/h/d. This wide difference seriously hampers planning. Contd. Food Security analysis • Wheat demand is more than ever due to rapid urbanization and change of food habit(fast food culture), diabetes related health benefit(as GI of wheat is much less than rice) and different bakery- biscuits-sweetmeat products preparation. Wheat demand/import increasing at 6-7 % rate per year and may increase rapidly in near future • As per BBS Bangladesh expenditure was about 23,848 crore BDT in 2020-21 for rice and wheat import Contd. Food security analysis • It is evident that Bangladesh has major deficit in nutrient dense crops like pulses, oilseed and spices. It is estimated for importing those crops 39-40 thousands crore BDT is required per year and which will increase gradually with increase of population and peoples income enhancement and turns towards healthy food habit. • Bangladesh also has a major deficit in milk production which cost more than 2624 crore BDT/year( imported as powered milk) • In the foreseeable future Bangladesh will remains as deficit in major food products due to its limited land, huge population , recurrent devastating effect of climate change ,and low technology adoption/processing. So, import of food products from foreign countries will remains as crucial for ensuring food security despite domestic yield increase in agricultural products Major Challenges of Bangladesh Food Security • Continuous cultivable land loss • Growing population(2 million/year) • Recurrent devastating effect of climate change on agriculture • Low investment in R&D in Agriculture Specific challenges: • Declining soil fertility, increase of Salinity and imbalanced application of manure/fertilizer • Large yield gap from research field to farmers field • Yield of most crops reached its celling- need braking of present yield level through modern scientific research (such as use of hybrid cultivars, CRISPR edit) and adoption of precision agriculture • Slow adoption of developed technology • Dearth of climate-smart variety/technology • Land, river, water bodies pollution by Industrial effluent, municipal waste, polyethylene, poisonous smoke and others • Land zoning for appropriate environment friendly agriculture (such as avoid boro rice in char or drought prone Barind tract, enhanced use of surface water for irrigation) • Quality seed supply for major crops at affordable price • Quality manure, fertilizers, irrigation water, pesticide, herbicide supply at fair price  Insufficient farm mechanization and seasonal labor shortage  Excessive use of groundwater in dry season and misuse  Ensuring fair price for farmers products and market management  Post-Harvest loss reduction and value-addition  Soft credit for all categories of farmers  Biological pest/weed control(IPM/ICM)  Crop diversification and intensification  GAP protocol development (for food safety and export)  Capacity development of manpower  Institutional capacity development  Index based insurance for farmers/farms Opportunities • • • • • • • • • • • • (i) Industrious small and marginal farmer; (ii) Huge and comparatively cheap labor force; (iii) Good and established research and extension network across the country; (iv) Agricultural education system(to be updated) (v) Moderate quality soil and congenial climate (semi-tropical) where various multiple crops could be grown around the year; (vi) Production of most crops /fish/livestock could be uplifted through innovation, variety development and packages of modern technology deployment; (vii) Good surface and underground sources of water for irrigation; (viii) Huge internal market for increase of food consumption through income elevation; ix) Scope of export to foreign countries by adopting GAP as production cost is competitive; (x) Educated entrepreneurs are investing to agriculture as finding it profitable than other enterprises(business, informal jobs) through growing High Value crops/fishlivestock farm; (xi) Private companies are investing for commercialization of agriculture particularly in value addition of products; and (xii) Newly surfaced huge char lands are potential for future agriculture production and expansion of area at least in rabi season(winter months). Points of Major Breakthrough for ensuring sustainable food security • Reduce area of Boro rice by 25 % by uplifting its present yield from 4.12 t/ha to 5.12 t/ha and release those lands for cultivation of high value-nutrient dense acutely deficient crops like oilseed, maize, fruits, vegetables, pulses and livestock raring • Soil fertility improvement though IPNS( both organic and inorganic ) • Transform people’s food habit (now rice based-70-75 % calorie from rice) toward balanced and diversified food as per recommendation to ensure proper nutrition for healthy life and saving environment • Reduce yield gap of major crops/fisheries/livestock production • Introduction of Good Agricultural Practice(GAP) from farm to table for food safety and export • Reduce post-harvest loss and food waste at all level • Improve trade policies and soft credit for smallholders/farms • Modify total infrastructural systems for facing climate change related problems • Congenial Insurance for farmers in case of crop/fish/livestock loss Poverty reduction and Food security ensuring Strategy (Dixon et al. 2001 of FAO and Ali, 2014) Despite modernization of agriculture poverty cannot be significantly reduced and food security cannot be ensured except: • Off-farm income (25 %) and exit from agriculture (25%) by a sizeable portion of population due to tiny land holding (11 decimal/head) and huge population, gradual land loss, along with horrendous effect of on-going climate change • Effective State measures to sustainable income increase of >35 millions poorest of the poor for ensuring their food affordability Link between Food Security & National Security • No Bread/Rice, No Peace • A population’s access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food has been a core state interest since time immemorial. In the Quran/Bible, Yusuf-pbuh(Joseph) rose to power after resolving Egypt’s food shortages; as early as perhaps the Zhou dynasty, numerous Chinese emperors lost the “mandate of Heaven,” or the right to rule, when they failed to address famines; during the Cold War, the United States made the strategic decision to launch Food for Peace programs, which provided easier access to food, mostly to its allies. (HTTPS://FOREIGNPOLICY.COM/2021/01/23/FOOD-HUNGER-NATIONAL-SECURITY-ISSUEINSTABILITY/ Access to Food and National Security are Tightly Connected. The latest reminder of this came on Oct. 9 when the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize to the World Food Programme for its efforts to combat hunger. The committee also drew a clear connection between hunger, war, and peace, adding that the WFP should be commended for “bettering conditions for peace in conflictaffected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict.” Rising food insecurity can exacerbate social and political instability. • Another important reminder that food is essential to national security was the United Nations Security Council unanimous adoption in 2018 of Resolution 2417, which, for the first time in the council’s history, condemned starvation as a form of warfare. Among other things, the resolution stated that armed conflict has both direct and indirect effects on access to food. The resolution further reaffirmed protections for civilians under international humanitarian law and the importance of securing access to food during conflict. Recent Chinese activities to ensure Food Security • Perhaps the most notable example of the reemergence of food security in national security is the rise of China. The Trump administration and Congress have interpreted patterns of Chinese foreign policy as an economic, military, and ideological threat. But official U.S. policy papers seem to underestimate the significance of food security to the Chinese government. • From a food as national security perspective, Beijing’s desire to secure nutrition to its massive population may be a primary motive for some actions that others consider aggressive, such as the purchase of land in Africa and investment in agriculture and fisheries around the world. South Asian Perspective-Food Security • Bengal Famine of 1943(WWII) Known as Pochasher Manantar-1350 Bengali year: In 2019, a study published in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters, suggested that the Bengal Famine of 1943-44 which led to the death of more than 3.5- 3.8 million people, was not by drought but due to complete policy failure on part • • • • • of then-British Prime Minister Winston Churchill/British empire. It also argued that military and political events in early 1943 adversely affected Bengal’s economy, which was exacerbated by refugees from Myanmar, then Burma. Additionally, it claimed that wartime grain import (from Burma, other province) restrictions imposed by the British government played a significant role in the famine. “Churchill deliberately ordered the diversion of food from starving Indian civilians to well-supplied British soldiers and even to top up European stockpiles, meant for yet-tobe-liberated Greeks and Yugoslavs,” Shashi Tharoor, the author of “Inglorious Empire: What the British Did to India” Nobel prize-winning economist Amartya Sen had argued (1981 )that there should have been enough supplies to feed Bengal in 1943-distribution problem Epidemic disease outbreak throughout 1944-45 ( Cholera, Malaria and Smallpox) • This famine triggers quick removal of British from then India Image of Bengal famine1943(internet) 1974 Famine of Bangladesh • As with most famines, the causes of the Bangladesh famine were multiple. These included flooding, rapid population growth, government mismanagement of foodgrain stocks, legislation restricting movement of foodgrains between districts, foodgrain smuggling to neighbouring countries and so called distributional failures. • Bangladesh famine was not caused by a failure in availability of food but in distribution (or entitlement), where one group gained "market command over food • Two distributional failures stand out. The first failure was internal: the specific configuration of the state rationing system and the market resulted in speculative hoarding by farmers and traders and a consequent rise in prices. • The second failure was external: the US had withheld 2.2 million tonnes of food aid, as the then US Ambassador to Bangladesh made it abundantly clear that the US probably could not commit food aid because of Bangladesh's policy of exporting jute to Cuba. And by the time Bangladesh succumbed to the American pressure, and stopped jute exports to Cuba, the food aid in transit was "too late for famine victims“ Contd.BD-Famine • Whatever the Bangladesh famine of 1974 might have been, it wasn't a FAD (food availability decline, i.e. lack of food) famine (Amartya Sen, 1981) • Rather flood affected people had not any purchasing capacity (Rangpur most affected district) • That time Government admitted 27,000 death due to starvationHowever, in Rangpur district alone 80,000 - 100,000 people died of starvation and malnutrition in 2-3 months researchers think it was six figures (ANTHONY MASCARENHAS, author of 'Bangladesh: A Legacy of Blood' (1986). An estimated 1.5 million people died in the process and through cholera, malaria and diarrheic diseases and starvation in the following year. • By June 1972, the price of paddy “was well above the crisis level of Bangladesh”. “… other essentials such as paraffin, cooking oil, salt and soap were also difficult to come by because of the outrageous market manipulation. The country was in the grip of a severe money famine since unemployment…showed no signs of declining…”. “And, adding to the overall distress there was a pervasive lawlessness and violence” (Mascarenhas, 1986, page 22). Bangladesh Famine 1974: Source: ELCA Archives image • • • • • • • Recent food/Fuel/Medicine crisis and fall of Sri Lanka Government Rajapaksa government instantly shifted its farming to solely Organic Agriculture in 2021 (April to October) Banned fertilizer, pesticide, fungicide, herbicide import Resulting in reduction of rice , tea, fruits and vegetable production by 40-70 % . Before it Sri Lanka was Self-sufficient in rice production. 1 kg rice cost now 220-240 L.Rupee Other factors: COVID-19 reduced main foreign exchange earning from tourism Giant Mega projects with foreign loan which gave little income So, food crisis occurred and Govt. has no dollar to import food/fuel/medicine/fertilizer Ultimately all those factors triggered mass public movement . Elected President G. Rajapaksa fled to save annihilation and resulted in fall of the Rajapaksa family dynasty in July 2022 Sri Lanka unrest and poor rice and fruit harvest by organic farming myth Current Russia-Ukraine war: World food supply as War Strategy by Russia • Despite UN Security Council resolution of 2018- Resolution 2417 Russia is blocking the export of Ukrainian’s million tons wheat, barley, corn, sunflower and fertilizer across Asia and Africa to drastically reduce its income and to get rid of its own sanctions(by USA, EU, UK) in exchange • Russia-Ukraine war causing widespread food crisis and food price hike in food deficit (mainly wheat and edible oil, fertilizer) countries rendering public sufferings and instability in dozens of countries • During crisis time food export become limited-so difficult to get even at higher price(example 2007-8, 2021-22) Above examples of different countries in different times clearly indicate that Food Security is closely related to National Security and Stability Food Crisis and Departure of Rulers Agreement signed between Ukraine-Russia to export Wheat/foods by Black Sea, 21 July 2022 Food Security: Muslim History Self-sufficiency in food is the Concept of Islamic world • The Islamic Reward of Food Production (Continuous Charity): The Prophet, ((PBUH)) stated that planting is one of the deeds that remain for a man after his death. Anas (RA) narrated that Prophet (PBUH) said: seven things that a person be granted in righteousness rewards after his death including, one who taught science, developed a river to flow, or drilled a water well, or planted palm trees, or built a mosque, or inherited a Quran, or left a son to ask forgiveness for him (updated by Al-Albany in Sahih alTargheeb No. 959). This indicates that all works related to agriculture and food production are considered in Islam as a continuous charity.  The Prophet Muhammad((PBUH)) said: • “There is no better food than the one whose hands have earned. and the Prophet of God, Dadud-pbuh(David), ate from the work of his hand.” Narrated by Bukhari • An essential part of one’s well-being, wellness, and goodness in health is the availability of and accessibility to enough quantity and balanced variety and quality food. Hence, attaining food security is part of a Muslim’s faith and worship. Muslims produced everything they needed even one civilization historian said: • “I have not heard that Muslims, wherever they were settled, were importing food from outside the countries of the Islamic world. Muslims also wrote on the properties of the soil and how to produce compost, introducing substantial improvements in methods of ploughing, planting, and irrigation” The Role of Muslim’s Imam/Caliphate: • The cultivation and reclamation/development of the land is one of the obligations of sufficiency (Fard Kifayeh) that all Muslims must do, and if some of them did it, it becomes a delegate or permissible against others. Al-Qurtubi said: • “Cultivation is one of the obligations of sufficiency. Accordingly, the Muslim community/State imam/Caliphate must compel people to cultivate, plant and farm the land, until the country’s/people’s/community sufficiency of food has been achieved” Famine management and Food security ensuring measures by Omar Ibn Khattab (RA) • In the year 18 AH (around 638 CE), people in the Arabian Peninsula suffered from severe starvation, poverty, drought, and hunger intensified until the man slaughtered the sheep not to see its ugliness, and the livestock died of starvation. The famine was associated with the plague. People rushed from the depths of the desert to the city, resided in it, or near it, and sought a solution or help from the Caliph Caliph Omar’s action against Famine      He made of himself as an example to people: He did not eat and waited until the rest of the people ate. He established refugee camps for immigrants and provided services and support for them during the year of Al-Remadah (famine) He asked for help from countries not affected by famine such as Egypt He asked for help from ALLAH (God) and prayed and asked people to pray to ALLAH for the rain to fall and famine to end. He stopped implementing penalties on people and collecting taxes during the year of famine Omar Ibn Al-Khatab used the following measures to enhance agriculture and consequently food production • Granting land to people to be reclaimed and developed, • Employing abscess (agricultural taxes) money in developing agriculture , • Benefiting from Zakat funds in developing agriculture , • Establishment of the flour bank (home) to have strategic storage and equal distribution of it in the time of crisis , • Seeking help and assistance from the states of the country with ample food production such as Iraq and Egypt (He wrote to Abu Musa AlAshari in Al Basra and Omar Ibn Al-As in Egypt for help) , • After consulting with the poor, Omar established the Bayt al-mal, a welfare institution for the Muslim and non-Muslim poor, needy, elderly, orphans, widows, and the disabled, • Except for the famine year, during the rule of Caliph Omar Ibn al Khattab poverty was eliminated, and the people lived at a time of total freedom from hunger and want . Umayyad’s era(661–750 CE) • The Umayyad Caliph Omar bin Abdul Aziz established a special charity house that was devoted to feeding the poor, the needy, and the people of Sabeel. He ordered the closure of the statehouse that imposed a tax on the people. Omar also provided loans to farmers to motivate them to serve the land, a measure that resulted in farmers returning to and cultivating their lands and doubling agricultural food production . • In conclusion, during the Umayyad’s era, food production was in general ample and food was secured to all people and locations, albeit some limited famine, hunger, or starvation cases occurred. Abbasid Caliphate (750–945 CE) • The caliphs of the first Abbasid era considered agriculture as a priority. They were active in digging and developing water canals and drains and building bridges and arches for waterworks • The Abbasids studied plant types and the viability of the soil for cultivation, and they used different fertilizers for plant types. They had a policy of not to overburden farmers with taxes. In fact, the Abbasid caliphs reduced taxes on farmers • The Abbasid era was the first to use knowledge tools and methods of agriculture and farming. They adopted and learned from the farming methods of Babylon, the Levant, and Egypt and applied them skillfully. There was a great interest in experimental scientific cultivation. The development of agriculture led to the development of horticulture. The crops of Iraq were barley, rice, wheat, dates, cotton, sesame, and flax. The production of fruit was pursued as a science and several new fruits were introduced in varying climates • It is concluded that like with the Umayyads, in the Abbasid era food production was in general ample and food was secured to all people and locations with limited famine, hunger, or starvation cases. Present Food Insecurity in Muslim World • It was reported that (FAO data)37% of the population of the Islamic world live below the poverty line, equivalent to approximately 504 million people, and their proportion to the world’s poor is 39%. This represents important and alarming figures for decision-makers in those countries to take actions either in their drought encounter projects and/or in their economic development plans and/or in their political reforms and human rights projects. • Major Causes: Drought/flood/cyclone/pest, war, pandemic, misrule, limited technology access, poor investment in R&D and exploitative market system