Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh

Disaster Risk Reduction Methods, Approaches and Practices Umma Habiba Md. Anwarul Abedin Abu Wali Raghib Hassan Rajib Shaw Editors Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh Disaster Risk Reduction Methods, Approaches and Practices Series editor Rajib Shaw, Kyoto University, Japan golam.rabbani@bcas.net About the Series Scope of the Series Disaster risk reduction is a process, which leads to the safety of community and nations. After the 2005 World Conference on Disaster Reduction, held in Kobe, Japan, the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was adopted as a framework of risk reduction. The academic research and higher education in disaster risk reduction has made/is making gradual shift from pure basic research to applied, implementation oriented research. More emphasis is given on the multi-stakeholder collaboration and multidisciplinary research. Emerging university networks in Asia, Europe, Africa and Americas have urged for the process-oriented research in disaster risk reduction field. Keeping this in mind, this new series will promote the outputs of action research on disaster risk reduction, which will be useful for a wider range of stakeholders including academicians, professionals, practitioners, and students and researchers in the related field. The series will focus on some of emerging needs in the risk reduction field, starting from climate change adaptation, urban ecosystem, coastal risk reduction, education for sustainable development, community based practices, risk communication, human security, etc. Through academic review, this series will encourage young researchers and practitioners to analyze field practices, and link it to theory and policies with logic, data and evidences. Thus, the series emphasizes evidence based risk reduction methods, approaches and practices. Editorial Advisory Group 1. Ms. Margareta Wahlstorm, Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nations for the Disaster Risk Reduction, and head of UN ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Geneva, Switzerland 2. Dr. Juha Uitto, Deputy Director, Evaluation Office, UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), NY, USA 3. Professor Kaoru Takara, Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 4. Professor Joy Jacquline Pereira, University Kebansan Malaysia (UKM), Malaysia 5. Professor David Sanderson, Director, Centre for Development and Emergency Practice (CENDEP), Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford Brooks University, Oxford, UK 6. Dr. Anshu Sharma, Board Member, SEEDS India, Delhi, India 7. Professor Ailsa Holloway, Director, Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme, Stellenbosch University, South Africa 8. Professor Arnold Howitt, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA 9. Professor Fuad Mallick, Chair of Disaster Management Program, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh 10. Professor Jayant K Routray, Coordinator of Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management Academic Program, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11575 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Umma Habiba • Md. Anwarul Abedin Abu Wali Raghib Hassan • Rajib Shaw Editors Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net Editors Umma Habiba Department of Agricultural Extension Ministry of Agriculture Dhaka, Bangladesh Abu Wali Raghib Hassan Department of Agricultural Extension Ministry of Agriculture Dhaka, Bangladesh Md. Anwarul Abedin Department of Soil Science Bangladesh Agricultural University Mymensingh, Bangladesh Rajib Shaw Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies Kyoto University Kyoto, Japan ISSN 2196-4106 ISSN 2196-4114 (electronic) Disaster Risk Reduction ISBN 978-4-431-55410-3 ISBN 978-4-431-55411-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015935561 Springer Tokyo Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © Springer Japan 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer Japan KK is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) golam.rabbani@bcas.net Preface This book outlines food security issues and their implications for risk reduction approaches in Bangladesh, drawing examples and lessons from the output of the national- and community-level programs and projects and other experiences of the country. The challenges of ensuring an uninterrupted supply of food for 160 million people is a formidable one. It is even more challenging in view of the shrinking size of the net cultivable land and the growing population. Despite the recent slowdown in population growth and lower fertility rate, at a population growth rate of about 1.6 %, Bangladesh would have to feed an additional 2.25 million mouths each year. Therefore, this book attempts to draw some of the key lessons learned from different sectors related to food security and analyzes them. Finally, for increasing food production and attaining food sufficiency, this book provides an integrated approach that helps to ensure food security in the context of Bangladesh. Promising and innovative initiatives that tackle hunger while building long-term resilience and food security are now being developed throughout the world. Food security, climate change, and disaster risk reduction research and policy agendas are also increasingly centered on resilience and how to bring together ideas, innovations, and lessons from these three fields. Within the above-described context, this book is a modest attempt to provide an overview of food security issues in Bangladesh that helps to combat natural disasters and to ensure security at both the individual and national levels. Although Bangladesh attained self-sufficiency in food production in 1999–2000, increased population growth, climate change, scarcity of natural resources, and a high incidence of poverty, urbanization, and malnutrition have put great pressure on the government for ensuring food security. The book has 14 chapters. The first is an overview and the last one is analysis. The remaining 12 chapters are divided into causes and issues of food security (three chapters), implications from different sectors (two chapters), policy analysis (two chapters), and various stakeholders’ actions (five chapters) to enhance food security. v golam.rabbani@bcas.net Preface vi This book is written for students, young researchers, and practitioners in the fields of disaster risk reduction and environmental studies. We hope that they will find the book useful and relevant to their work. Dhaka, Bangladesh Mymensingh, Bangladesh Dhaka, Bangladesh Kyoto, Japan Umma Habiba Md. Anwarul Abedin Abu Wali Raghib Hassan Rajib Shaw golam.rabbani@bcas.net Contents 1 2 3 4 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues ...................................................................................... Umma Habiba, Md. Anwarul Abedin, and Rajib Shaw 1 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization and Its Implication on Food Security............ Sheikh M. Rafiqul Hasan and Umma Habiba 19 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management and Food Security ........................................... Sanjib Kumar Saha and Shampa Barmon 39 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh .......................................................................................... Abu Wali Raghib Hassan and Anil Kumar Das 53 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors .............. Abu Wali Raghib Hassan and Rajib Shaw 65 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors ............ Mostafa A.R. Hossain, Humayun Kabir, Ali Muhammad Omar Faruque, and Monjur Hossain 83 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security...................................................................................... 111 Md. Abu Syed 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security .......... 135 Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security ............................... 157 Md. Anwarul Abedin and Umma Habiba vii golam.rabbani@bcas.net viii Contents 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh ......................................... 173 Md. Golam Rabbani, A. Atiq Rahman, Ishtiaque Jahan Shoef, and Zoheb Mahmud Khan 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region of Bangladesh .............................. 187 Abu Zofar Md. Moslehuddin, Md. Anwarul Abedin, Mostafa A.R. Hossain, and Umma Habiba 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security ........................................................................................... 213 Rezaur Rahman and M. Shahjahan Mondal 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues in Bangladesh ...................................................... 235 Gulsan Ara Parvin, Kumiko Fujita, Akiko Matsuyama, Rajib Shaw, and Maiko Sakamoto 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development, Environment and Resource Management and Risk Reduction .......... 255 Umma Habiba, Md. Anwarul Abedin, and Rajib Shaw golam.rabbani@bcas.net Contributors Md. Anwarul Abedin Department of Soil Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed Deputy Secretary, Ministry of Public Administration, Dhaka, Bangladesh Shampa Barmon Mission Jannat, Dhaka, Bangladesh Anil Kumar Das Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh Ali Muhammad Omar Faruque Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Dhaka, Bangladesh Kumiko Fujita Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Umma Habiba Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh Sheikh M. Rafiqul Hasan University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh Abu Wali Raghib Hassan Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh Monjur Hossain PMTC (Bangladesh) Ltd., Dhaka, Bangladesh Mostafa A.R. Hossain Department of Fish Biology & Genetics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh Humayun Kabir Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Dhaka, Bangladesh Zoheb Mahmud Khan Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh ix golam.rabbani@bcas.net x Contributors Akiko Matsuyama School of International Health Development, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan M. Shahjahan Mondal Institute of Water and Flood management, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh Abu Zofar Md. Moslehuddin Department of Soil Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh Gulsan Ara Parvin Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Md. Golam Rabbani Environment and Climate Change Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh A. Atiq Rahman Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh Rezaur Rahman Institute of Water and Flood management, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh Sanjib Kumar Saha Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Dhaka, Bangladesh Maiko Sakamoto Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Rajib Shaw Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Ishtiaque Jahan Shoef Data Management Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh Md. Abu Syed Remote Sensing, GIS and Modeling Division; NRM, Ecosystem Modeling and Adaptation Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net About the Editors Umma Habiba is an Agricultural Extension Officer at Ministry of Agriculture in Bangladesh. She has completed her Ph.D. studies in the Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies of Kyoto University, Japan, and she also completed her postdoctoral research as GCOE-ARS Postdoctoral Fellow from the same Graduate School of Kyoto University. She has done extensive research in the arena of agriculture, drought, risk reduction, climate change adaptation and food security issues. Her research interests are climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, sustainable agriculture and food security. Md. Anwarul Abedin is an Associate Professor at Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh. He holds a Ph.D. degree in Environmental Studies from Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Japan, and also completed his postdoctoral research as JSPS Fellow in Kyoto University. He has done extensive research in the field of water and arsenic contamination and community based disaster risk reduction in the coastal Bangladesh. His recent work involves flood risk management, climate change and health issues, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in coastal Bangladesh. His research interests are community adaptation and networking, natural hazards (salinity, arsenic, drought, etc.) risk and resilience, water vulnerability and food security issues. Abu Wali Raghib Hasan, Deputy Director of Department of Agricultural Extension, at Ministry of Agriculture in Bangladesh. He has completed his Ph.D. in Soil Science from Bangabanghu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agriculture University, Bangladesh, and did an Advance Diploma on Agriculture Management in Rural Development Projects from Nordic Agriculture College, Denmark. He has more than 29 years’ practical experiences on crop production, protection and preservation, IPM, climate change adaptation, food security, farmers field school (FFS) etc. He also worked as Project Director of “Disaster and Climate Risk Management in Agriculture xi golam.rabbani@bcas.net xii About the Editors Project” under Comprehensive Disaster Management Program Phase-II, Department of Agricultural Extension. His research interests are drought, saline, flood and flash flood prone areas on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Rajib Shaw is a Professor in the Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies of Kyoto University, Japan. He worked closely with the local communities, NGOs, governments and international organization, including United Nations, especially in the Asian countries. He is currently the Chair of the United Nations Asia Regional Task Force for Urban Risk Reduction and the President of Asian University Network of Environment and Disaster Management (AUEDM). His research interests are: community based disaster risk management, climate change adaptation, urban risk management, and disaster and environmental education. He has published several books in the field of disaster and environmental management. He is also the Chief Editor of Asian Journal of Environment and Disaster Management. golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues Umma Habiba, Md. Anwarul Abedin, and Rajib Shaw Abstract A series of recent events have stimulated broader interest in food security and food systems. About 850 million people in the world are undernourished, particularly in the developing countries. In spite of making considerable progress in food sufficiency, however, food security is a major concern in Bangladesh, as being over populated and disaster prone country. Although, food security is mostly affected by extreme climatic events, making resource-poor farmers/fishers/herders even more vulnerable to disasters and impacts of climate change. Half of all rural children are reported as chronically malnourished and 14 % suffer from acute malnutrition. Therefore, the main focus of this chapter is to highlight a brief overview of food security, climate change impacts on it and necessitate the integration of risk reduction into the ongoing activities carried out through national to local level in Bangladesh context. Keywords Food security • Food sufficiency • Climate change • Risk reduction • Bangladesh 1.1 Introduction The concept of food security has evolved over time and the world has taken a more comprehensive view of food and nutrition in recent years. During the 1960s, the emphasis was mostly on food supply or availability at the national level from domestic production and/or imports. The 1974 World Food Summit emphasized the U. Habiba (*) Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: shimuagri@yahoo.com Md.A. Abedin Department of Soil Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh e-mail: masumagriculture@yahoo.com R. Shaw Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan e-mail: shaw.rajib.5u@kyoto-u.ac.jp © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_1 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 2 U. Habiba et al. need to make food available at stable prices in both national and international markets. Many developing countries then seemed to have achieved this objective through the ‘Green Revolution’ – dissemination of modern high yielding variety (HYV) technology – by growing more food. However, this boost in production did not benefit everyone and it certainly did not eliminate hunger and malnutrition across most low income countries. About 850 million people in the world are undernourished – a number that has hardly changed since the 1990–1992 base period for the World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goal commitments on reducing hunger half by 2015. As of May 2006, 39 countries in the world were experiencing serious food emergencies and required external assistance for dealing with critical food insecurity: 25 in Africa, 11 in Asia and Near East, 2 in Latin America and 1 in Europe. Global food security is exacerbated by the frequent natural disasters occurred through climate changes which make the situation in crisis to meet the basic demands. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report along with other scientific studies, it is clearly understood that climate change has a direct impact on agriculture, livestock and fishing, particularly in countries of tropics and sub-tropics, which will not only affect local but the global food security (Bals et al. 2008). Climate change affects food security in a complex way. Changing precipitation level due to climate change increase the possibility of coastal storm, flooding and saline water intuition is likely to reduce livestock productivity and increase livestock mortality and also reduce agricultural yield. In addition, changing temperature due to climate change reduce the rainfall pattern that affect growing season in the tropic and sub tropic. At least 120 days rain is required by most of cereal crops, reduce rainfall affecting the crop yields in most of Africa especially North Africa and Southern Africa. Moreover those countries are also having water stress (Faisal and Parveen 2004; Devereux and Edwards 2009). Both sudden and slow onset climate change impacts has direct effect on economic activities and that raise the issue of food crisis, particularly for the poor countries where food security is already volatile and faces serious risks and challenges. Climate change increases the food crisis for most of the developing countries by affecting the production and supply process (Tandon 2012). Moreover introduction of bio-fuel and rapid increase of food price are making this food crisis more crucial (Viveros 2012). Therefore, there is a growing urgency to protect future food security, because changing climate is clearly change food production and distribution line and a high price have to be paid by the consumers to ensure minimum survival intake (Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). Agriculture is important for food security in two ways: it produces the food people eat and (perhaps, even more important), it provides the primary source of livelihood for 36 % of the world’s total workforce. In the heavily populated countries like Asia and the Pacific, this share ranges from 40 % to 60 % and in Sub-Saharan Africa; two-thirds of the working population still make their living from agriculture (ILO 2007). In Bangladesh, agriculture is the most important sector of economy due to its role in food security, employment and livelihoods. The current share of GDP is golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 3 around 15.02 % of the total GDP of the country (BBS 2013) and employs about 48 % of the population. However, substantial year to year fluctuations of GDP is declined due to the result of a loss of production in both food and cash crops happened through natural calamities. Agricultural production is influenced by seasonal characteristics and climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day length, etc. (MOEF 2009). Furthermore, various types of climatic disasters like flood, cyclone, drought, etc. hinder it. Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in agricultural development and food production in the recent decades. But the emerging impacts of global climate change are posing serious threats to food security of the people, particularly of the poor and marginal people of the society. Since independence in 1971, the national food production progress has been boosted through the use of high yielding varieties, fertilizer, irrigation and pesticide. However, a large part of the population still lacks access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. Therefore, ensuring food security for everyone is a high priority for the Government of Bangladesh today. 1.2 1.2.1 Definition and Dimensions of Food Security Defining Food Security Food security as a concept originated in the 1974, in the discussions of international food problems at a time of global food crisis. The initial focus was the volume and stability of food suppliers. During that period, food security was defined by World Food Summit (WFS) in the 1974 as: “availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic food stuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices” (United Nations 1975). The most recent careful redefinition of food security is that negotiated in the process of international consultation leading to the WFS in November 1996. According to WFS (1996) definition, “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. This definition addresses four key components of food supplies and security namely: availability, stability, access and utilization (Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). Over time a large number of different definitions have been proposed. However, at the World Summit of Food Security in 2009, this definition was reconfirmed, and the concept was extended and specified by adding that the “four pillars of food security are availability, access, utilization, and stability” and stated that “the nutritional dimension is integral to the concept”. The strength of this definition is its comprehensiveness and imperative for “concerted actions at all levels” (that are “individual, household, national, regional, and global levels”) and “coordinated efforts and shared responsibilities” across institutions, societies, and economies to tackle food insecurity effectively (FAO 1996). golam.rabbani@bcas.net U. Habiba et al. 4 Fig. 1.1 Dimensions of food security 1.2.2 Dimensions of Food Security Food security is the outcome of food system operating efficiently. Efficient food system continues positively to all dimensions of food security. The dimensions of food security are described under the following sub-headings (Fig. 1.1): Food Availability The dimension addresses supply side of the food security and expects sufficient quantities of quality food from domestic agricultural production or imports. This is simple mathematical calculation weather the food available in certain territory/ country is enough to feed the total population in that particular territory and calculated from the level of local agriculture population at that territory, stock levels and net import/export. The dimension of food security at different levels can be assessed by precipitation record, food balance sheet, food market survey, agricultural production planet. Similarly, indicators of food security for this dimension at different levels are fertility rate, food production, population flows, harvesting time, staple food production, food shortage, consumption of wild foods, etc. Food Access Having sufficient food at national level or at certain territory cannot be taken as the proof that all the household or individuals in the country/territory have enough food to eat. Food access is another dimension of food security which encompasses income, golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 5 expenditure and buying capacity of households or individuals. Food access addresses whether the households or individuals have enough resources to acquire appropriate quantity of quality foods. Some of the indicators of this dimension at different levels are food price, wage rate, per capita food consumption, meal frequency, employment rate, etc. and the dimension can be assessed by Vulnerability Assessment Mapping (VAM), Food Access Survey, Food Focus Group Discussion, Intra-household food frequency questionnaire etc. Interventions to improve this dimension of food security are inter alia on-farm, off-farm and non-farm employment creation, school-feeding program, breast-feeding campaign etc. Food Utilization Food Utilization is another dimension of food security which addresses not only how much food the people eat but also what and how they eat. It also covers the food production, intra-household food distribution, water and sanitation and health care practices. The nutritional outcome of the food eaten by an individual will be appropriate and optimum only when food is prepared/cooked properly, there is adequate diversity of the diet and proper feeding and caring practices are practiced. Stunting rate, wasting rate, prevention of diarrheal diseases, latrine usage, weight for age, goitre, anemia, night blinders etc. are the indicators at different level for this dimensions which can be assessed by demographic and health survey, immunization chart etc. Stability This dimension addresses the stability of the other three dimensions over time. People cannot be considered food secure until they feel so and they do not feel food secure until there is stability of availability, accessibility and proper utilization condition. Instability of market price of staple food and inadequate risk baring capacity of the people in the case of adverse condition (e.g. natural disaster, unexpected weather etc.), political instability and unemployment are the major factors affecting stability of the dimensions of food security. This dimension of food security can be assessed by Global Information Early Warning System, Anthropometric survey, weighing chart of pregnant women etc. against certain indicators like food price fluctuation, women etc. against certain indicators like food price fluctuation, women’s BMI, pre-harvest food practice, migration etc. Interventions to address this dimension are saving and loan policy, inter-household food exchange, grain bank, food storage etc. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 1.3 U. Habiba et al. Measuring Food Security and Insecurity In order to understand better the nature and extent of the food security situation and the possible ways to improving it, it is important to distinguish between food security at the national, local, household and intra-household level. The ultimate goal is to meet the food requirements of the people at all levels. • Food security at the national level is determined by the availability of enough resources for the whole population. The most widely used indicators are quantities of available food compared with needs, as well as import requirements compared with the country’s capacity to import. • At the sub-regional levels, food security can be measured by comparing regional nutritional requirements with availability of dietary calories per head. Furthermore, the problem is increasingly being used in terms of seasonal or local level. • At the household level, food security is dependent on a household’s access to enough food. Thus it is closely linked with the issue of poverty, access, sufficiency, vulnerability and sustainability. At the household level, food security is measured by actual dietary intake of all household members using household income and expenditure surveys. It is important that changes in socio-economic and demographic variables be monitored continuously over time. A food poverty indicator shows the number of individuals living in a household whose access to food is sufficient to provide a dietary intake adequate for growth, activity and good health. Individual food security implies an intake of food and absorption of nutrients sufficient to meet an individual’s needs for activity, health, growth and development. The individual’s age, gender, body size, health status and level of physical activity determine the level of need. 1.4 Food Security in Bangladesh Over the past three decades, Bangladesh has made significant progress in increasing domestic production of food grains. This country attained self-sufficiency in food production in 1999–2000 with a gross production of rice and wheat of 24.9 million metric tons, which marginally met the country’s requirement of 21.4 million metric tons (MT) for the population. This is possible because this country has managed its rice production triple since its independence, from 10 million MT in 1971 to over 32 million MT today. Introduction of modern varieties of rice has cultivated over 75 % of the total cropped area. Along with, 8.44 million ha of the land are irrigated, which is over seven times more than in 1990 (Bangladesh Agriculture Statistics 2013). Therefore, food security situation of Bangladesh has improved, especially on average per capita dietary energy supply has improved from 1,800 kcal in 1970s to 3,055 kcal in 2009 (BBS 2010). There has also been substantial improvement in the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 7 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues Table 1.1 Production and availability of food grains (rice and wheat) in Bangladesh Gross domestic production Year (thousand m.tons) 1991–1992 19,317 1995–1996 19,056 2001–2002 25,905 2005–2006 27,268 2009–2010 33,158 Source: FPMU database, MOFDM Net domestic production (thousand m.tons) 17,385 17,150 23,315 24,541 29,179 National availability (thousand m.ton) 18,714 19,373 25,006 27,105 32,492 Per capita availability kg./year gm/day 165.60 454 165.50 453 188.30 516 192.23 527 220.00 603 availability of food; with per capita availability of food grains increasing from around 454 g to around 603 g per day during the period 1992–2010. Rice has contributed most to self-sufficiency in foodgrain, accounts for 94 % of the foodgrain production. More than 95 % of the population consumes rice and it alone provides 76 % of calories and 66 % of total protein requirement of daily food intake (Bhuiyan et al. 2002). Rice thus occupies the center stage of food security and continues to draw major attention of the Government for further increasing the production. In addition, the major food security goal of Bangladesh is to achieve self-sufficiency in rice so that the country can meet its entire requirement from domestic production. The concern has received added importance especially after the crisis that affected the global food market in 2007–2008 (Table 1.1). It has been evident that increased domestic production, supplemented by imports and overall public food management contributed to relatively adequate availability of food at national level over the recent past years. However, food security has always been a nation priority for Bangladesh since liberation. High population density (1,117/km2) and low GDP (US$1,900/year) put food security as one of the key priorities for national development (Tandon 2012; Faisal and Parveen 2004). In Bangladesh, the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MoEF), Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) and Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) are the key national actors in relation to addressing climate change, agricultural development and food security. The National Food Policy 2006 and draft the National Agricultural Policy 1999 promotes attaining food-grain self-sufficiency as well as a reasonable non-grain sufficiency. In the recent years, Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009 put highest priority on food security. Among six pillars of BCCSAP, the first pillars talks about food security that addresses the development of climate change resilient cropping system (e.g. agricultural research to develop crop varieties, which are tolerant of flooding, drought and salinity, and based on indigenous and other varieties suited to the needs of resource poor farmers), fisheries and livestock systems to ensure local and national food security. Despite policies designed to increase rice production to assure self-sufficiency, food insecurity at the household level remains widespread, although there are considerable regional variations. Half of the populations have incomes below a golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 U. Habiba et al. calorie-based poverty line (Del Ninno et al. 2005). Even when aggregate food supplies are adequate, a number of factors in Bangladesh prevent poor households from accessing food. These include: (i) low income; (ii) lack of land ownership; (iii) shortage of assets or access to credit; (iv) inability to access outside public assistance or in-kind or cash transfer programs to supplement food acquisition capacity; and (v) rising food prices (World Food Program). Adding together, food security in Bangladesh has been adversely affected by both disasters and recent escalating food prices. The country’s food insecure (<2,122 kcal/person/day) population is now estimated at 65 million (nearly half or 45 % of the population) and nearly one quarter are deemed severely food insecure (<1,805 kcal/person/day) (Ibid.). Half of all rural children are reported as chronically malnourished and 14 % suffer from acute malnutrition (IFAD 2012). 1.5 The Effects of Climate Change on Food Security in Bangladesh Bangladesh experiences the climate change impacts in the form of temperature extremes, erratic rainfall, and increased number of intensified floods, cyclones, droughts, and prevalence of rough weather in the Bay. These phenomena will adversely affect the country’s food security in various ways (Fig. 1.2): Climate change Temperature Rainfall, Sea level rise Flood, Drought Cyclone, Salinity intrusion Food Security (Agriculture, Fisheries & Livestock) Fig. 1.2 The effects of climate change on food security in Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 1.5.1 9 The Effects of Temperature on Agriculture Rice in Bangladesh is the main staple food that accounts for 92 % of the total food production, is disastrously affected by the climate change impacts. World Bank (2009) predicts that national rice production will decline under all of the Climate Change Scenarios and that the annual growth rate will reduce from 2.71 % to 2.55 % under the Average Climate Change Scenario during the period of 2005–2050. Table 1.2 shows the impact of climate change on rice yield in Bangladesh. High temperature reduces yields of high yielding varieties of aus, aman and boro rice in all areas of Bangladesh in all season. Of the three varieties of rice grown in Bangladesh, aus rice seems to be the most vulnerable. Moreover, it is indicated by various studies that a rise of 1–2 °C in combination with lower solar radiation causes sterility in the rice spikelet. Fluctuation of temperature anomalies will hamper the vegetative and reproductive growth of crop production. A temperature increase of 4 °C would cause significant decrease in production: some 28 % for rice and 68 % for wheat. Depending on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, conducted a study where they found that considerable yield reductions (1.5 %, 2.5 %, 4.4 % and 5.4 % for the years of 2020, 2030, 2040 and Table 1.2 Impact of climate change on rice yield in Bangladesh Climatic zone South North Northern part North South South Eastern Eastern of Northern Western Western Western Central Zone Zone Region Zone Zone Zone Zone Current rice yield (tons/hectare) Aus 3.38 2.95 1.86 2.12 2.06 2.08 2.99 Aman 3.76 3.68 2.54 2.67 2.33 2.44 3.24 Boro 4.33 4.43 3.48 3.17 2.79 2.67 3.86 Expected % of change in 2030 Aus (5.3) 0.8 0.6 (1.0) (2.1) (2.8) (3.3) Aman (4.9) 1.1 1.3 0.4 (1.9) (2.6) (3.0) Boro (4.6) 1.5 2.0 0.6 (1.6) (2.2) (2.6) Expected % of change in 2050 Aus (10.3) (1.5) 2.5 (2.7) (5.8) (6.2) (7.1) Aman (9.5) (0.8) 3.5 (2.3) (5.3) (5.6) (6.8) Boro (8.5) 3.5 5.2 1.9 (4.6) (4.9) (6.4) Expected % of change in 2080 Aus (21.2) (3.4) 4.2 (5.6) (12.3) (14.0) (16.5) Aman (19.9) (2.7) 5.5 (5.1) (11.9) (13.2) (15.2) Boro (18.6) 6.4 7.3 3.6 (11.5) (12.3) (13.9) Here () means negative Source: Adopted from assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in South Asia, Mahfuz Ahmed and Suphachol Suphachalasai, June 2014 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 10 U. Habiba et al. 2050 accordingly) from the effects of temperature on the yield of boro rice. Likewise, with the change in temperature by 2 °C and 4 °C, the prospect of growing wheat and potato would be severely damaged. Production loss may exceed 60 % of the achievable yields (Karim 1993). For wheat, grain weight declines by 16 % for every 5 °C increase beyond 25 °C temperature (Abrol et al. 1996). Higher temperature has negative effect on soil organic matter also. Thus yield reductions under changed climatic conditions could significantly affect food production and food security in Bangladesh. As a result, food insecurity will occur. 1.5.2 The Effects of Rainfall on Agriculture Crop production in Bangladesh is predominantly rainfed. Hence, the onset, duration, amount and the periodic aberrations of rainfall dictate the nature and type of crops to be grown and the sequence of farming activities. The uneven distribution of monsoon rains in space and time over different parts of the country may lead to periodic drought and flood conditions. All crops have critical stages when it needs water for their growth and development. It was found that for 1 mm increase in rainfall at vegetative, reproductive and ripening stages decreased the Aman rice production by 0.036, 0.230 and 0.292 ton respectively. Decreasing trend of rainfall in winter and pre monsoon reduce yields of both broadcast and transplanted Aman and delay the sowing of pulses and potatoes. Boro, wheat and other crops grown in the dry season are also periodically affected by this change of climate variables. Furthermore, scarcity of water limits crop production while irrigation coverage is only 56 % as delivered by the Bangladesh Agriculture Development Corporation (BADC). As a result, it has a great negative impact on the food system of the country. 1.5.3 The Effects of Drought on Agriculture Drought takes place in Bangladesh more frequently than the past because of climate change (NDMC 2006) and it appears in this country in every 5 years. Each year 0.45 million ha of land is affected by very severe drought during the rabi season while 0.40 and 0.34 million ha are affected during the pre-kharif and kharif seasons, respectively. Moreover, Tanner et al. (2007) mentioned that about 2.7 million ha of land in Bangladesh are vulnerable to annual drought. It is a recurrent phenomenon in some parts of the country, but the north-west region is mostly drought-prone area because of high rainfall variability (Shahid and Behrawan 2008). Drought of different intensities occurs in Bangladesh that has a significant impact on agriculture and agricultural products. For instance, the consecutive drought of 1978 and 1979 directly affected 42 % of cultivated land and reduced rice production by an estimation of 2 million ton (Brammer 1987). Likewise, the drought of 1994–1995 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 11 led to a decrease in rice and wheat production of 3.5 × 106 tons (Rahman and Biswas 1995). On the other hand, drought in 1997 caused a reduction of around 1 million ton of food grain, of which about 0.6 million ton were transplanted Aman rice. In the recent years, data from 2006 indicated that drought caused 25 %–30 % crop reduction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh (Rahman et al. 2008). Apart from rice crop, drought affects other crops, such as jute, wheat, corn, potatoes, sugarcane, different types of pulses and oilseeds, and vegetables and cause significant damage in production where irrigation is limited (Banglapedia 2006). 1.5.4 The Effects of Sea Level Rise on Agriculture Sea level rise would affect the southern part, about 47,000 km2 coastal areas of Bangladesh that is equivalent to 32 % of total landmass (CEDR 2009). It affects the agriculture in three ways, i.e., by salinity intrusion, by flooding and by increasing cyclone frequency and its depth of damage. Combined effects of these three factors decrease agriculture production in the coastal zone. However, the losses of total land and agricultural land from possible rises in sea level are presented in Table 1.3. It is apparent from Table 1.3 that a maximum sea level rise of 0.50 m by the year of 2030 might lead to 11 % loss of total landmass, which would submerge 215,000– 395,000 ha (hectare) agricultural land of the country. The situation might be worse in 2100 for a continuous rise in sea level. In addition to this, sea level rise cause inundation of more area which is already reported by scientist. With the expected 1 m rise in sea level, it is predicted that 20 % of the southern Bangladesh will be under water and will displace 25–30 M people (Habibullah et al. 1998; World Bank 2000; Agrawala et al. 2003; Faisal and Parveen 2004; Ahmed 2006). With this contrast, salinity intrusion due to sea level rise will decrease agricultural production by unavailability of fresh water and soil degradation (MoEF 2011). There is growing evidence that high salinity levels have adverse effects on rice that prevents growth, reduces germination, causes browning of rice fields (Gain 1995) and decreases rice production (Ali 2006). Salinity has further caused increased insect and disease infestation in the field crops in the coastal areas (Miah et al. 2004). Table 1.3 Losses of total land and agricultural land from probable sea level rise Year 2030 Characteristics Minimum Sea level rise (meter) 0.30 Share of area inundated (in %) 6 Loss of agricultural land (in 000 hectare) 215 Source: Adopted from Rashid and Islam (2007) Maximum 0.50 11 395 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Year 2100 Minimum 1.00 17 610 Maximum 1.50 22 790 12 1.5.5 U. Habiba et al. The Effects of Flood on Agriculture Flood is a regular phenomenon in Bangladesh. It tends to occur between April and May, and September to November (NAPA 2005). Higher discharge and low drainage capacity, in combination with increased backwater effects, would increase the frequency of such devastating floods under climate change scenarios. Every year, one fifth of the country is flooded and in extreme cases, two-thirds of the country can be inundated (Mirza 2002). Recently, it has been estimated that about 7.2 Mha, about half of the total land area are flood prone. Floods cause colossal losses of crops, poultry and animals. The excessive monsoon rainfall (80 % of the total rainfall) occurs during July to September, causes early, high and late floods and hampers crop production, since 60 % of the cereals are produced during that period. Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production, as observed during the floods of 1998. The 1988 flood caused reduction of agricultural production by 45 % (Karim et al. 1996). Different intensities of flood caused massive destruction of the crop production as well as economy. Table 1.4 shows the adverse effects of the major recent floods in Bangladesh. 1.5.6 The Effects of Cyclone on Agriculture The impacts of cyclone in the coastal of Bangladesh are widespread. Climate change increases the frequency and higher peak intensity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the month of April to May and Mid September to mid October. As a consequence of cyclone, an immense damage is occurred for crop production. Table 1.5 depicts the agricultural losses due to cyclone in different years. As, rice the main food in Bangladesh, therefore, cyclone has devastating effects on the rice production of the coastal area in Bangladesh. For instance, in November 2007, cyclone Sidr hit the southern region of Bangladesh affecting 33 districts with an economic impact of $1.7 billion. Approximately 2.5 million acres of agricultural land are damaged, including approximately 1 million tons of rice and 350,000 trees were uprooted by the storm. FAO/GIEWS Global Watch (2007) reported that at the Table 1.4 Comparison of losses resulting from recent large floods Item Inundated area of Bangladesh (percent) People affected (million) Livestock killed (Nos.) Crops fully/partly damaged (million ha) Rice production losses (million tons) Total losses (in USD billion) Source: World Bank (2007) 1988 60 45 172,000 2.12 1.65 1.4 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1998 68 31 26,564 1.7 2.06 2.0 2004 38 36 8,318 1.3 1.00 2.3 2007 42 14 40,700 2.1 1.2 1.1 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 13 Table 1.5 The crop losses due to cyclone in Bangladesh Year 1970 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 2007 2009 Crops damaged fully (Acre) 3,350,000 39,500 17,800 2,316,042 38,712 171,099 133,272 23,986 2,593 2,431 254,755 461,819 350,000 Crops damaged fully (Acre) – 86,590 84,837 1,597,780 38,629 242,897 791,621 57,912 42,644 4,933 59,788 1,027,399 – time of the passage of cyclone, SIDR, the main 2007 “Aman” rice crop, accounting for about 70 % of the annual production in the most affected area, was nearly to harvest. According to the estimate by Department of Agricultural Extension of Bangladesh, the loss in rice equivalent is found at 1.23 million tons, with 535,707 tons in the 4 severely affected districts, 555,997 tons in badly affected 9 districts and 203,600 tons in moderately affected 17 districts in Bangladesh. On the other hand, cyclone Aila 2009 reasons for destruction over 350,000 acres of crop land. Livestock Livestock sector is largely affected by climate change variability. Its production is also affected by the climate changes due to reduction in the quality and availability of feed, water, increased diseases and other environmental stresses. Analytical evidence on the impacts of climate change on livestock is relatively scanty in Bangladesh. Chowdhury and Karim (2009) indicated that livestock production could be affected by the climate changes due to reduction in the quality and availability of feed and water, heat and other environmental stresses, and preponderance of livestock parasites, pests, and diseases. The average temperature in Bangladesh is 18 °C in winter and 28 °C in the summer. If global warming causes Bangladesh temperature to rise further 2 °C by 2050, together with relative humidity of 60–95 %, all most all species of livestock will be under heat stress conditions. As a result of heat stress, animals suffer from elevated body temperature, increased respiration rates, increased maintenance energy requirement, increased feed nutrient utilization, decreased dry matter intake, reduced milk production and hampered reproductive performance. Heat stress reduces disease resistance and increases morbidity and mortality of animal species. Reductions in milk production and reproductive performance are economic losses to cattle, goat and sheep producers. golam.rabbani@bcas.net U. Habiba et al. 14 Fisheries Climate change is likely to adversely affect both the fresh water and marine fishes in Bangladesh. It affects habitat’s alteration, fish reproduction, fish migration, natural fish breeding and fish biology. Fish reproduction, growth and migration patterns are all affected by temperature, rainfall and hydrology (Ficke et al. 2007). Increased salinity and change in water quality can prompt a change in species composition and distribution especially in coastal areas. However, salinity intrusion threatened fresh water fish production, at the same time, creating opportunities for catching and cultivating brackish and marine species. In 2007, the cyclone Sidr caused damages and losses of US$6.7 million to fisheries sectors. It is reported by Bangladesh Fisheries Development Corporation (BFDC) that the fishery resources in the EEZ area of the Bay of Bengal have declined by around 25–30 % over the last couple of decades. Moreover, FAO (2009) reports that around 100 important fish species have disappeared from the Bay of Bengal over the last few decades. In recent years, natural fish stocks have declined due to natural and manmade catastrophes, degradation of aquatic environments and reduction of many wetlands and water areas. The flood plain fisheries are the main sources of fish resources of Bangladesh. But due to erratic behavior of seasonal flood, these fish resources will be worst hit. There is a considerable threat of losing over 4 million metric ton of fisheries by the year 2030. Timing, extent and duration of rains and floods greatly influence reproduction, migration and growth of fishes. Delay in onset of rains and floods may affect the breeding and maturation success of fish, which in turn will result in the reduced fish production from rivers and floodplain (NAPA 2005). Moreover, increased aridity, reduced dry season precipitation and extended dry spell, particularly in northwest region of Bangladesh, will lead to the drying up of or retain too little water (not adequate for survival of fish) in floodplain fish pits, depressions, ditches etc. As a flood plain area, inland open water fisheries of Dhaka region is suffering from reduced fish production. Every year hundred of culture ponds float due to floods resulting in loss of fish and poor fish farmers incur financial losses. This effect of climate variability is posing a great threat to the substance of pond fish culture as well. The combined effect of all climatic impacts would have severe consequences on the productivity of agriculture and thus the livelihoods of a large number of poor people, especially those who are already food insecure and vulnerable. 1.6 Risk Reduction: The Promising Issue of Food Security Since Bangladesh is expected to experience of climate related hazards on an unprecedented scale, it is necessary to scale up and accelerate efforts in both disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation. It is widely accepted that DRR directly contributes to climate change adaptation. The 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action specifically identifies the need to “promote the integration of risk reduction associated with existing climate variability and future climate change…”. Parties to golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 15 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change also stressed DRR to advance adaptation in the December 2007 Bali Action Plan, which calls for enhanced action on risk management and risk reduction. The Cancun Adaptation Framework promotes enhanced adaptation on climate change related DRR strategies, taking into consideration the Hyogo Framework for Action, early warning systems, risk assessment and management, sharing and transfer mechanisms at local, national, sub regional and regional levels, as appropriate. According to IPCC’s prediction “by 2025 this country is on course to lose 17 % of its land and 30 % of its food production and as a result poverty will increase” (Planetizen 2008). Agriculture has considerable influence on food security, rural livelihoods and thus, the overall growth of the country. Yet, the sector is extremely vulnerable to disaster and climate induced risks. Flood, cyclone, drought, flash flood and other disasters are the major setbacks for agriculture and its development in Bangladesh. Climate change and its variability also pose great risk and negative impacts on productivity. Thus, disaster and climatic risk management in agriculture is a major challenge for Bangladesh in achieving sustainable development. As, both disaster risks and climate change threaten food security, therefore, to ensure food security, activities in the agriculture sector must be integrated with DRR and CCA. At present, there are a number of areas where DRR and CCA naturally converge. In their respective efforts to reduce exposure to hazards and decrease vulnerability to long-term climatic changes, DRR and CCA both benefit from livelihood diversification and improved resource management practices that increase the food security of at-risk populations. Additionally, both have an interest in minimizing loss and damages incurred through extreme weather events that are – through short-term climate variability or more profound, slow onset processes – influenced by climate change. The incorporation of DRR expertise in implementation could help to increase the pace at which CCA efforts move from planning to action. Meanwhile, DRR can also learn from the long-term perspectives of CCA in order to ensure that DRR activities align with shifting climatic realities, and not just historical experience. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the form of prevention, mitigation and preparedness can minimize the risk and vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Bangladesh from the impact of natural disasters. DRR can also pave the way to build the foundation for climate change adaptation (CCA). The types of issues required for climate change adaptation – in other words, how to manage and cope with increased variability and extremes of events – share a great deal with disaster risk reduction measures. Therefore, strengthening DRR and CCA in agricultural sector has emerged as important issue warranting strategic investment. References Agrawala S, Ota T, Ahmed AU, Smith J, Aalst MV (2003) Development and climate change in Bangladesh: focus on coastal flooding and the Sundarbans. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris Abrol PY, Gadgil S, Plant GB (1996) Climate vulnerability and agriculture. Narosa Publishing House, New Delhi golam.rabbani@bcas.net 16 U. Habiba et al. Ahmed UA (2006) Bangladesh: climate change impacts and vulnerability - a synthesis, Dhaka Ali AMS (2006) Rice to shrimp: land use/land cover changes and soil degradation in Southwestern Bangladesh. Land Use Policy 23:421–435 Bals C, Harmellng S, Windfuhr M (2008) Climate change, food security and the right to adequate food. Germanwatch, Stuttgart Banglapedia (2006) Drought in Bangladesh. http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/D_0284.htm. Accessed 5 Sept 2014 BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2013) Planning Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh. http://www.bbs.gov. bd/WebTestApplication/userfiles/Image/BBS/GDP_2012_13.pdf. Accessed 12 Sept 2014 Bhuiyan NI, Paul DNR, Jabber MA (2002) FeedIng the extra millions by 2025: challenges for rice research and extension in Bangladesh. In: Proceedings of the workshop on modern rice cultivation in Bangladesh, 29–31 Jan, pp 4–23 Brammer H (1987) Drought in Bangladesh: lessons for planners and administrators. Disasters 11(1):21–29 Bangladesh Agriculture Statistics (2013) Available at: http://www.agriculturebd.com. Accessed 27 Aug 2014 BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2010) Planning division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh CEDR (2009) EM-DAT international disaster database. Visited on 11 January 2010, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels, Belgium. Available at: http://www. emdat.be/database. Accessed 27 Sept 2014 Chowdhury SA, Karim Z (2009) Implication of climate change on livestock production of Bangladesh. Submitted in Electronic Journal, Livestock Research for Rural Development Del Ninno C, Dorosh PA, Subbarao K (2005). Food aid and food security in the short and long run country experience from Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ SOCIALPROTECTION/Resources/SP-Discussion-papers/Safety-Nets-DP/0538.pdf Devereux S, Edwards J (2009) Climate change and food security. IDS Bulletin 35(3) Faisal IM, Parveen S (2004) Food security in the face of climate change, population growth and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh. Environ Manage 34(4):487–498 FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (1996) Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action. http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/W3613E/W3613E00. HTM. Accessed on 23 Sept FAO/GIEWS Global Watch (2007) Livelihood of over 8.9 million people adversely affected by Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh. http://www.fao.org/giews/english/shortnews/bangladesh071221. htm. Accessed 31 Aug 2012 FAO (2009). Building adaptive capacity to climate change. Policies to sustain livelihoods and fisheries. New Directions in Fisheries – A Series of Policy Briefs on Development Issues. No. 08. Rome. 16 pp. Ficke AD, Myrick CA, Hansen LJ (2007) Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries. Rev Fish Biol Fish 17(4):581–613 Gain P (1995) Attack of the shrimps. TWR 59:18–19 Government of Bangladesh, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Department of Environment, Climate Change Cell. Available at:http://www.climatechangecell/publications/06ccimpactvuln erability.pdf. Accessed 30 Sept 2014 IFAD (2012) Rural poverty in Bangladesh. http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org/country/home ILO (2007) Chapter 4. Employment by sector. In Key indicators of the labour market (KILM), 5th edition. www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/start/klim/download/kilm04pdf Karim Z (1993) Preliminary agricultural vulnerability assessment: drought impacts due to climate change in Bangladesh. IPCC Eastern Hemisphere Karim Z, Hussain SG, Ahmed M (1996) Assessing impacts of climate change variations on foodgrain production in Bangladesh. Water, Air Soil Pollut 92:53–62 Mirza MMQ (2002) Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Glob Environ Chang 12:127–138 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 1 Introduction and Overview of Food Security and Risk Reduction Issues 17 MOEF (Ministry of Environment and Forest) (2009) National Adaptation Programme of Action. MOEF and United Nations Development Programme, Dhaka MoEF (Ministry of Environment and Forest) (2011) Climate Change and Agriculture in Bangladesh, Information Brief, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Miah MY, Mannan MA, Quddus KG, Mahmud AM, Baida T (2004) Salinity on cultivable land and its effects on crops. Pak J Biol Sci 7:8,1322–1326 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) (2005) Final report. Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (2006) What is drought? Understanding and defining drought. http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm Planetizen (2008) Bangla Dommed? Available at: http://www.planetizen.com/node/33615. Accessed 25 Aug 2014 Rahman A, Biswas PR (1995) Devours resources. Dhaka Cour 11(42):7–8 Rahman A, Alam M, Alam SS, Uzzaman MR, Rashid M, Rabbani G (2008) Risks, vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh. Human Development Report 2007/08, Human Development Report Office OCCASIONAL PAPER, 2007/13 Rashid MH, Islam MS (2007) Adoption to climate change for sustainable development of Bangladesh agriculture. Bangladesh country paper for the 3rd session of Technical Committee of Asian and Pacific Center for Agricultural Engineering and Machinery (APCAEM), 20–21 November 2007, Beijing Schmidhuber J, Tubiello FN (2007) Global food security under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104(50):19703–19708 Shahid S, Behrawan H (2008) Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh. J Int Soc Prev Mitig Nat Hazards 46:391–413 Tandon N (2012) Food Security, Women Smallholders and Climate Change in Caribbean SIDS, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, Cape Town. www.ipcundp.org/pub/ IPCPolicyResearchBrief33.pdf. Accessed 21 Mar 2013 Tanner TM, Hassan A, Islam KMN, Conway D, Mechler R, Ahmed AU, Alam M (2007) ORCHID: piloting climate risk screening in DFID Bangladesh. Detailed research report, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK United Nations (1975) Report of the world food conference, Rome, 5–16 November 1974, New York Viveros A (2012) Debt relief and development. World Bank, Washington, DC World Bank (2007) Floods 2007 damage and needs assessment report, Dhaka WFP (World Food Program) (2005) Bangladesh poverty Map 2005. Food Security at a glance: 7, Food vulnerability. Available at: http://foodsecurityatlas.org/bgd/country/food-security-at-aglance#section-6. Accessed 17 Aug 2014 WFS (World Food Summit) (1996) Basic concepts of food security: definition, dimensions and integrated phase classification. Available at: http://www.foodandenvironment.com/2013/01/ basic-concept-of-food-security.html (Accessed 24 Aug 2014) World Bank (2009) Implication of climate change risks on food security in Bangladesh. South Asian Region, 10 June 2009 World Bank (2000) Bangladesh: climate change & sustainable development, Report No. 21104 BD, Dhaka, Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization and Its Implication on Food Security Sheikh M. Rafiqul Hasan and Umma Habiba Abstract Geographical location along with overall economic status and huge population, food security is a challenge for Bangladesh. Further different types of natural disasters disrupts/undermine local food production every year contribute to food insecurity, and create reliance on food aid. The link between population growth and food security in the face of climate change is not limited to increased demand for food. Population growth and urbanization also have serious blows on the food supply and access for Bangladesh because of loss of agriculture land, fragmentation of land and land development projects in fragile environments that unswervingly affect food production. Therefore, this chapter focuses on the issues related to the anthropogenic causes of food insecurity in the light of population growth, urbanization and socioeconomic paradigm. Keywords Anthropogenic causes • Population • Urbanization • Food security • Bangladesh 2.1 Introduction The spectra of climate change, together with other global environmental changes such as changes in water availability, and land cover, and altered nitrogen availability and cycling (influenced by human activities), has increased concerns about achieving food security, especially for the poor people (Gregory and Ingram 2000; Parry et al. 2001; Rosegrant and Cline 2003). In addition, according to Godfray et al. (2010) S.M.R. Hasan University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh U. Habiba (*) Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: shimuagri@yahoo.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_2 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 19 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba 20 population growth puts a pressure on food production, land availability, water use, soil quality etc. There is also concern that meeting the global food demand due to higher population and changing food preferences will further degrade the environment both through additional destruction of native vegetation and increased intensification of cropped areas (Tilman et al. 2001). This may, in turn, further undermine the food systems upon which food security is based. By 2050 the world will need around 100 % more food than today. Urbanization will be one of the most important demographic trends of the twenty-first century. Indeed, virtually all the population growth expected during 2000–2030 will be concentrated in the urban areas of the world. Growth will be particularly rapid in the urban areas of the less developed regions, averaging 2.3 % per annum during 2000– 2030, consistent with a doubling time of 30 years. Although urban areas will encompass an increasing share of the world population, the proportion of people living in very large urban agglomerate lived in cities of 10 million inhabitants or more. Climate change will worsen the living conditions of the urban poor, farmers, fishers and forest-dependent people who are already vulnerable and food insecure. Hunger and malnutrition will increase. Urban poor communities, particularly those living in already fragile environments/slums and squatters, face an immediate and ever-growing risk of increased crop failure, loss of livestock, and reduced availability of marine, aquaculture and forest products. More recurrent and more intense extreme weather events will have bad impacts on food availability, accessibility, stability and utilization, as well as on livelihood assets and opportunities in both rural and urban areas. Poor people will be at risk of food insecurity due to loss of assets and lack of adequate insurance coverage. Urban people’s ability to cope with climate change impacts depends on the existing cultural and policy context, as well as on socio-economic factors like gender, household composition, age, and the distribution of household assets. In the recent decades the agricultural sector including food security (production, availability, and accessibility) faces many challenges stemming from growing global populations, land degradation, and loss of agricultural land to urbanization. Because of modern technology food production has been able to keep pace with population growth on the global scale but there are serious regional deficits, and millions of people are under threat of poverty related nutritional deficiencies globally. The first decade of the twenty-first century has seen quite a lot of indications of a concerned future for global food security. The food price spike of 2008, with its resulting food riots and consequential political changes in several countries, awoke the world’s leaders to the re-appearance of this menace to human well-being and social harmony. Since the late 1980s, agricultural output has increased at rates and to levels that are unprecedented in Bangladesh history. Much of the yield increase is attributed to the breeding of high-yielding crop varieties, thorough use of inorganic fertilizers golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 21 and pesticides, spreading out of irrigation, and modern farm management. But since the beginning of the 1990s yet another threat to agriculture has attracted much attention. Many climatologists predict significant global warming in the coming decades due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases. As a result, major changes in hydrological regimes have also been predicted to occur. The scale and geographical distribution of such climate-induced changes may affect our ability to expand food production as required to feed a population of more than 220 million people projected for the middle of this century. Climate change could have sweeping effects on patterns of trade among nations, development, and food security. Away from what is known about greenhouse gases and the climate system, however, lie great uncertainties: How much warming will occur, at what rate, and according to what geographical and seasonal pattern? What secondary processes will the warming trend induce, and what might be the physical and biological impacts of such processes? Will some areas benefit while other areas suffer, and who might the winners and losers are and if such damages are unavoidable, what can be done to adapt or modify our systems so as to minimize or overcome them? These are vital and intricate questions that have only begun to identify with them and to build up methods for their analysis. 2.2 Anthropogenic Causes Related to Food Security Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, has long been suffering from food deficiency. Food crisis has become a vulnerable threat for those people who live below the poverty line. Among all South Asian countries, Bangladesh faces the most severe food crisis due to current food security challenges resulted by climatic as well as anthropogenic causes. Among climatic factors, changing monsoon, rising sea level, increasing temperature and climatic disasters such as cyclone, flood, drought and salinity intrusion cause a substantial damage to food production. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the country loses about 80,000 ha of arable land due to the impact of climate change. On the other hand, there are a number of anthropogenic factors that hamper to produce crop and impede to attain food security. These include population growth, urbanization, loss of arable land, lack of quality seeds, food habit of people (about 90 % is rice based), inadequate credit support to the farmers, unfair pricing, insufficient investment in agricultural research and agricultural mismanagement in terms of irrigation, use of fertilizer and pesticides etc. These factors are severely affecting Bangladesh’s agriculture, and its attempt to attain food security and self-sufficiency as well. Therefore, the main anthropogenic factors that affect the food security in Bangladesh are discussed under the following sub-headings: golam.rabbani@bcas.net 22 2.2.1 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba Population Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world with a population around 160 million and annual growth rate is estimated 1.6 % in the year 2012 (CIA The World Fact Book 2013). On the contrary, it is reported by Unnayan Onneshan (2014), if the present trend of population growth of two million people per year continues, Bangladesh will undoubtedly face far severe food shortages in the next few years reaching a critical level by 2050 (Fig. 2.1). This figure demonstrates that population growth increases at a faster rate than food production from 2005 onwards. This is due to the increasing demand for additional food by the middle-class people with rising income. Half of the population in Bangladesh lives under poverty level and 30 % of the population suffer from chronic malnutrition where children and women are the most affected (Eminence 2013). Although government of Bangladesh is working towards achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and their priority is to eradicating hunger and make Bangladesh food secure. According to the “National Food Policy of Action 2008–2015” Bangladesh has achieved remarkable success in combating food insecurity since 1990. Since then till 2004 the undernourished proportion of the population has gone down from 40 % to 30 % but due to population growth the actual number of people has increased from 39 to 44 million (NFPCSP 2008). Bangladesh produces self-sufficient staple food mainly rice which is 94 % of all food grain production rest of the food items are being mainly imported (NFPCSP 2008). Overpopulation in Bangladesh poses serious threat to food security leading to large-scale food shortages. For example, over the last 50 years, Bangladesh did not export rice except in 1974 because of the increase in population and overconsumption of food. Thus, to ensure the increase in rice production for feeding the increased population is great challenge in Bangladesh. Fig. 2.1 Projected amount of population and demand for rice (Adopted from Unnayan Onneshan (2014)) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 2.2.2 23 Urbanization As urbanization is a global phenomenon today, Bangladesh is experiencing a rapid urbanization. Currently around 30 % of the population lives in urban settlement and the trend show that it has increased steadily by 3.5 % annually. This rate might increase rapidly due to the climate change and related hazards. The major reason for urbanization today in Bangladesh because of climate related hazards like flood, cyclones, river bank erosion etc. Therefore, people move to urban areas seeking alternative livelihoods as they lacked job, land or any other earning options. Adding together, due to rapid urbanization, cultivated lands are being filled with house settlement, infrastructure and other related services to the meet of urban population. Rising demands for energy, water, land and natural resources for rapid urban population have already posed a serious threat to the food security in the urban areas in Bangladesh. For example, over extraction of ground water in cities has enhanced risk of anthropogenic subsidence, exacerbating future food risks already set to rise through climate change impacts and socio-economic changes. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction stated that about 30 % of the land mass of Bangladesh can go under water if sea level rises. If the effect of climate change worsens the country will face an extreme urbanization of the internally displaced persons (IDP). In urban and rural area, the main determinants of food are livelihood and nutrition security which is the same in Bangladesh. However, there is a wide variation in the factors that affect these determinants. For example urban households in big cities are more dependent on food purchase, which, if they have sufficient purchasing power, can lead to a more varied diet and higher reliance on ‘ready-made’ and fast foods, compared to rural households. Food access has a direct impact on dietary diversity and has been seriously affected by rising food and fuel prices, conflict, and the primary or secondary affect of natural disasters in urban areas across the country- Bangladesh. Environmental issues (e.g., over-crowding, poor water and sanitation, pollution, open sewerage and contamination) are most acute in Bangladesh cities and exacerbated in slums and squatters. Apart from that social networks in urban areas are based on political, religious, economic and ethnic connections. Social support systems are weaker for the most food insecure in urban areas, as they often do not have the same access to kin, political or religious groups to offer and provide support as in rural areas. All of which effects their social capital. On the contrary, migration between rural and urban areas is two-way and often very context-specific depending on the economic, social and political factors. It is essential to understand rural–urban linkages in analysis of the livelihoods and food security of the urban poor as there is a high level of interdependency in many contexts and households may exploit opportunities for seasonal migration to mitigate risk. Adding together, significant challenges are faced in urban food security and nutrition programming (by government, UN and (I)NGOs), beginning with assessment and targeting issues when faced with a highly mobile, densely packed population, where in- and out-migration is a constant feature. Although urban areas have golam.rabbani@bcas.net 24 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba traditionally been considered better served in terms of healthcare, education and sanitation, a closer look at the evidence reveals that proximity does not equate to access. Both cost of services and urban livelihood strategies, including long journeys to places of work and long working hours, limit access by the urban poor to healthcare, community nutrition services or improved water sources. Further climate change situation will just make the condition more critical for urban food security. The urban poor living in informal settlements and slums face a unique set of challenges compared to their rural counterparts in the face of double dilemma climate change and food insecurity. Almost exclusively dependent on the market for food and other necessary items, slum dwellers are very vulnerable to price increases and other market shocks and this will more challenging due to climate change in the near future in Bangladesh. The population density of slums, in combination with poor sanitation and limited access to clean water, also translates into high transmission risk for communicable diseases. Urban areas are more complex than rural areas, at every level from governance to nutrition and food security assessments, requiring strong urban platforms and coordination at all levels. There is a need to work more closely to improve the capacity of governments and national actors, as well as developing clearer ways of working with the private sector for service delivery and programme scale up. Clear urban strategies are required by governments, UN and (I) NGOs and these should influence the emerging thoughts of donors on the development of comprehensive urban funding strategies. 2.2.3 Loss of Cultivable Land Rapid population growth, along with unplanned urbanization causes the areas of cultivable land to be used for non-agricultural purpose, especially for building residence for increasing population. Statistics suggest that between the periods from 1961 to 2007, the agriculture experienced a two-fold reduction in the availability of cultivable land. Production during this period increased due to mainly to the use of input by the farmers at a higher rate on the same piece of land. For instance, 1 metric ton of food was produced from 0.406 ha of land in 1961, whereas same production was achieved from the land below 0.14 ha in 2007. However, the loss of agricultural lands has become a major concern for food security in Bangladesh. Almost one-third of the Bangladesh farmland have disappeared in the last 30 years because of unplanned urbanization and transfer of lands to other uses, for example, human settlements and industrial purposes. Figure 2.2 shows the decreasing trend of net cultivable land in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is a land-scarce country where per capita cultivated land is only 12.5 decimals. It is claimed that every year about 1 % of the farmland in the country is being converted to non-agricultural uses. According to the 2009 report of the Planning Commission, 80,000 ha of agricultural lands are being converted every year to non-agricultural golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 25 Fig. 2.2 Trend of loss in the availability of net cultivable land (Adopted from Unnayan Onneshan (2014)) uses mainly for the expansion of housing facilities, and building infrastructures such as roads, markets, educational institutions, electricity and industrial establishments. In 1980, Bangladesh had 9 million ha of farmlands, which were reportedly reduced to about six million in 2012 (Rashid 2012). At present, the cultivable land has been declining by almost 1 % per year, and everyday 325 bighas land are being lost to other uses due to increased demand for habitation, industrial and commercial establishments and transportation infrastructure that pose challenges to the country’s food security (Barua 2012). Bangladesh’s current population growth rate is 1.42 % against the decline of agricultural land area by 1 % annually. Experts warn that at the rate that agricultural land declines against the growing population, it will be very difficult to ensure food security after 10 years (Rashid 2012). 2.2.4 Soil Degradation Soil degradation takes place in Bangladesh that is a major constraint to agricultural production. It is estimated that some of 2 million metric tons of nutrients are removed from Bangladesh soils annually. On the other hand, major food crops remove about 2.98 million tons of nutrients annually against a total addition of 0.72 million tons. Unless compensated through balanced application of nutrients every year. Declination of soil fertility, erosion and salinization affect 5.6–8.7 million ha, 5.3 and 3.05 million ha of land, accordingly. However, the fertility of land is expected to decline and so will its productivity. According to appraisal report on Bangladesh’s soil resources, soils on about 6.10 million ha contain low (less than 1 %) organic matter (OM), 2.15 million ha contain low (1–2 %) OM and the remaining contain high (more than 2 %) of OM. N deficiency has been observed all types golam.rabbani@bcas.net S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba 26 of soil and the deficiency of P, Zn, S, B is widespread. Moreover, it is predicted that 3 °C rise in atmospheric temperature would cause an 11 % decrease in soil OM to 30-cm depth, which will adversely affect plant growth and reduce crop yield. 2.2.5 Lack of Sufficient Fertilizer About 60 % of arable lands of Bangladesh are deficient in N, P, and K. Organic matter content of soils is much below the critical level of 1.5 % (Karim 1997). Farmers normally use recommended doses urea in their agricultural land. Because of high prices, they apply P and K fertilizers at the rates that are far below the recommended amount. Chemical fertilizers are not normally integrated with organic manures. It is thus evident that farmers virtually do not use balanced fertilizers that are necessary for high productivity. Insufficient amount of fertilizers is severely damaging the food production in Bangladesh (Mondal 2010). In the past, Bangladesh witnessed fertilizer crisis in the years of 1974, 1984 and 1989. Recently, fertilizer crisis occurred in the years of 2005, 2007 and 2008. Still the poor farmers do not have access to the sufficient amount of fertilizers in sufficient for their agriculture (Jaim and Akter 2012). 2.2.6 Inefficient Water Use Water use efficiency in Bangladesh is extremely low. On the average, 25–30 % of irrigation water is used by crops and the rest is lost due to faulty flood irrigation system (Karim 1997). Conservation of rain water during monsoon is virtually nonexistent that could be utilized for irrigating crops during dry season. Studies show that irrigation with surface water instead of underground water might reduce the vulnerability to hazards of climate change. Irrigation cost in Bangladesh is relatively high due mainly to high price of diesel. It is to be mentioned that more than 80 % irrigation pumps in the country are diesel operated. 2.2.7 Pests and Diseases The use of fertilizers, quality seeds and irrigation together cannot ensure sustainable production unless timely and appropriate measures for the management of pests and diseases are simultaneously pursued. It is important to note that the incidence of diseases and pests has lately become very severe due to the adverse effects of golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 27 climate change, particularly rise in temperature (IPCC 2007). It is estimated that 4–14 % of rice yield in Bangladesh is lost every year by different insect pests. Bacterial leaf blight (BLB) and nematode (ufra) are now the serious diseases in rice. But the technologies resistant to pests and diseases are still very limited. Use of 1 PM technology is limited to rice and few vegetables. 2.2.8 Lack of Quality Seeds The demand for quality of seeds in Bangladesh is still weak because there is a lack of costly seed preservation and processing facilities (Mondal 2010). Of the total seed requirement, only about 6 % quality seeds were supplied in 2003–2004 (Huda et al. 2004) although seed as an input could increase crop production by 10–15 %. Contribution of private sector and NGOs to quality seed production is still insignificant because they lack costly seed preservation and processing facilities. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) obtains subsidy from the government which allows it to provide seeds at a lower cost. Poor farmers, however, have less access to BADC seeds and thus they have to depend on private sectors to purchase quality rice seeds at a high price. On the other hand, homegrown seeds produced by poor farmers are of inferior quality than that of BADC research organization’s seed in terms of seed moisture, germination, and vigour and seed health. In most of the cases, farmers do not adopt and apply recommended packages such as the use of quality seeds, balanced fertilizers, isolation, rouging, irrigation, plant protection and different postharvest activities for rice and wheat seed production (Islam et al. 2010). The supply of the good-quality of seeds is only 40 % of its demand. Survey results have shown that 64 % of Bangladeshi farmers use their own wheat seeds year after year. Twenty six percent of the farmers purchase from other farmers in local markets and only 10 % of the seeds are purchased from the government’s seed suppliers (Banu et al. 2004). 2.2.9 Inadequate Credit Support to Farmers About 90 % farmers of Bangladesh are small and marginal (below 2.5 acres). They are very often constrained by finance and thus cannot afford high cost for management. They have very limited access to institutional credit because of collateral requirement. At present, only 27 % of farmers receive institutional credit. The credit amount again is quite inadequate and not advanced in time. They are also not eligible for microcredit of NGOs that deal mainly with landless farmers. The situation compels these farmers to apply inputs, especially expensive P and K fertilizers far below the recommended doses that finally result in low yield. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 28 2.2.10 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba Rising Food Price The increasing level of food price is one of the major current challenges of food security in Bangladesh. Since 2007, the food price of essential food commodities has been rising rapidly, reaching to a peak in the 2008 worldwide food crisis. The 2008 price hike went on to worsen the situation leading to the number of food insecure people (less than 2,122 kcal/day) to increase by 7.5 million and the number of severely food insecure people (less than 1,805 kcal/day) to increase by 6.9 million. If 2005 is taken as base year of food price hike, the increasing price of foods in 2011 and 2012 is also a startling. The prices of coarse, medium and fine rice have been nearly doubled in 2011 compared to those of 2005. During 2010–2011 period, price of rice in Bangladesh has increased by close to 30 %, flour by 50 %, lentils by 15 % and chicken by 37 %. In 2011, the overall inflation rate was 10.70 %. Food inflation stood at 7.83 % in 2012 while it was 12.83 % in the previous year. Food inflation rose to 7.33 % in December from 6.45 % in November 2012. According FAO report, in 2012, food price was at record level, having risen from 1.4 % in September following an increase of 6.0 % in July 2012 (Barua 2012). This food inflation rate increased to 7.91 % in 2005 and at the same time nearly 0.2 million people lived under poverty line. Food inflation of 11.0 % (12-month average) in April 2011 indicates that more people are likely to go under poverty line in the upcoming years. The poor are hit hardest during these price shocks as they spend more of their income on food. The price of rice is mostly controlled by middle-men not by market factors such as demand and supply. Moreover, the structure of domestic rice market is very complex. The presence of restrictive business practices and other disruptive actions (such as deliberate supply shortage) in the rice market contribute to a significant gap between farm-gate price and consumer price of rice. Therefore, international speculation helped business elements make possible to create an artificial crisis in domestic rice market leading to a significant increase in food prices in recent years. The rural households suffer mostly from increased food price because they are net buyers of rice. 2.2.11 Food Adulteration Food adulteration with poisonous chemicals has reached a dangerous proportion. Food adulteration has been happening on a massive scale for the past half a decade due to increased investment, an expanding market, and high consumer demand. In food market, basic food items like rice, fish, fruits, vegetables, and sweetmeats are adulterated with hazardous chemicals in an indiscriminate manner. In 2004, a random survey conducted by Public Health Laboratory of Dhaka City Corporation, reported that more than 76 % food items on the market were found adulterated. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 2.2.12 29 Poverty-Malnutrition Nexus Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries in the world and despite its recent strides in GDP growth it remains remarkably low when compared to the global scale. Almost 40 % of people in rural Bangladesh live on less than $1.25 per day and 60 % of that income is spent on food. Table 2.1 shows different aspects of poverty in Bangladesh. Poverty and malnutrition appears to be largely a rural phenomenon in Bangladesh and though huge difference exists across economic groups and gender. Food insecurity is not only a result of insufficient food production and inadequate distribution, but also of the financial inability of the poor to purchase sufficient food. Bangladesh has made appreciable progress in reducing the percentage of population living below 1.25$ a day from 59 % in 1991–1992 to 31.5 % in 2010. However, more than 17 % of the population is still extremely poor. According to a FAO 2012 report, more than 40 Bangladeshis are undernourished and don’t have access to adequate amounts of safe, nutritious food to sustain a healthy and productive life. Bangladesh is ranked 129th out of 169 countries in the 2010 Human development Index (HDI), and 68th in a list of 79 countries in the 2012 Global Hunger Index (GHI). For those making less than US$1.25 a day, access to adequate food from the market is often too costly. More than 90 % of rural Bangladeshis don’t get sufficient level of dietary vitamin-A and iron. Annually, under-nutrition contributes to more than a third of child deaths and to at least a fifth of maternal deaths in Bangladesh. As a result, malnutrition in Bangladesh remains among the highest in the world. Malnourishment leads to poor health hence individuals fail to provide for their families. Chronic hunger produces an array of outcomes that perpetuate malnutrition, reduce the ability of adults to work and to give birth to healthy children, and erode children’s ability to learn and lead productive and healthy lives. Reduced performance at professional level undermines a country’s real potential for socioeconomic development. The two main reasons why livelihood and food security issues remain critical in Bangladesh are, (i) the heavy dependence of the majority of the population on the agricultural sector for employment and (ii) the large number of undernourished people, the majority of whom are below the poverty line and Table 2.1 Poverty dynamics of Bangladesh Year 1996 2000 2005 2010 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line 50.10 48.90 40.00 31.51 (% of population) Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) 60.91 58.59 50.47 43.25 (% of population) Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) 19.93 18.61 14.17 11.17 Income share held by lowest 20 % 8.66 8.66 8.79 8.88 Gini index 33.46 33.36 33.22 33.12 Source: Adapted from World Bank report, Global Poverty Working Group. Data are based on World Bank’s poverty assessments and poverty Reduction Strategies in Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net 30 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba spend a considerable proportion of their total income on food. Increased food productions alone never go to bring significant progress in combating hunger and malnutrition if it is not combined with higher incomes and improved livelihoods for the poorest. 2.2.13 Unemployment and Lack of Economic Growth According to World Food Program (WFP), in recent years, devastating cyclones and floods, the dramatic increase in food prices in 2008 and the global recession have all impacted economic growth in Bangladesh. All of these factors in turn have led to a deterioration of food security and nutritional situation in the country. The lack of food security sometimes creates huge impact on the future of children, are being taken out of school to engage in income-generating activities to meet sufficient food supply. Male members are also migrating to cities in search of employment to cope with the high price hike of food and to meet their basic demand of food. 2.2.14 Insufficient Investment in Research Investment in agricultural research in Bangladesh now stands at only 0.20 of GDP (Karim 1997) even though agriculture contributes to 19.10 % of GDP and employs 50.28 % of labour force. Low investment has resulted in the under functioning of National Agricultural Research System (NARS). Scopes for promotion and training of potential scientists in different fields are also limited due mainly to fund constraint. Apart from climate change, it can be said from the above discussion that there are various anthropogenic factors that are interlinked with each other which ultimately affect the food security in Bangladesh. The Fig. 2.3 highlights the anthropogenic causes that are liable to boost up food insecurity in Bangladesh. 2.3 2.3.1 Government’s Initiatives on Food Security in Bangladesh Level of Production Through Input Distribution Card In 2012, the government of Bangladesh introduced an input distribution card to nine million small and marginal farmers. The card is now used to obtain cash subsidies for electricity and for fuel irrigation, for purchasing fertilizers at government fixed prices and for other forms of government support. Now, yields are increasing as more farmers adopt hybrid seeds varieties, invest in small-scale mechanization, and use fertilizers and agrochemicals more efficiently. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 31 Fig. 2.3 Anthropogenic causes related to food security in Bangladesh 2.3.2 National Livestock Development Policy In 2007, Bangladeshi government formulated a very comprehensive National Livestock Development Policy (NLDP) to address the key challenges and opportunities for sustainable development of the livestock sub-sector and agricultural production of Bangladesh. 2.3.3 Climate Change Strategic Action Plan In 2009, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh adopted the Climate Change Strategic Action Plan with 44 programs to develop capacity for meeting the impacts of climate change of the next 25 years. The government also formed Multi-Donor Trust Fund to attract the support of developed countries. Seventy four Prime Minister has called for innovations to make crops adaptive to climate change and has reaffirmed her commitment to make Bangladesh self sufficient in food. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 32 2.3.4 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba The National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Program (NFPCSP) The government of Bangladesh launched the National Food Policy (NFP) in 2005 as well as Plan of Action (POA) in 2010. While the National Food Policy (NFP) ensures sustainable food security for all in the country, the National Food Policy Plan of Action calls for irrigation projects, the development of microfinance associations, and specific indicators to measure the progress of certain programs. The plan also recognizes agricultural issues with gender, climate and nutritional issues (Loewenthal 2010). The government of Bangladesh initiated the National Food Policy mainly for two objectives. These are: • Adequate and stable supply of safe and nutritious food • Increased purchasing power and access to food of the people This POA has been taken by the government of Bangladesh with four major goals such as food availability; physical and social access to food; economic access to food; utilization of food for nutrition for the period of 2008–2015 (National Food Policy Plan of Action 2008–2015). In 2010, it supported the formulation of a Food Security Investment Plan to further strengthen the fight against hunger and malnutrition. The program was jointly implemented by the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit under the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management of the government of Bangladesh and the FAO. It receives financial support from the European Union (EU) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Program helps build Bangladesh’s institutional and human capacities to design, implement, and monitor food security policies as well as to strengthen food security governance. 2.3.5 Duty Free Rice Import To alleviate food shortage, the government has now allowed the import of food products in most cases to be duty-free. For example, rice imports are currently duty-free. There are also no quantitative restrictions on rice exports. It was in May 2008, that Bangladesh imposed a ban on rice exports. The government has taken action to make a balance between import and export of food products. The ministerial decision was taken on 13 February, 2011. 2.3.6 Public Food Distribution System Bangladesh is stepping up its efforts to address the seasonal food shortage particularly caused by flood, drought and other natural disasters. The Public Food Distribution System (PFDS) is the government’s main mechanism for addressing golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 33 shortfalls in household food. The government initiated this program to increase access to food for the vulnerable groups through price subsidies on food grain and targeted income transfer. But the system was reported faulty because of nepotism and corruption as well as high incidence of leakage and manipulation in distribution. 2.3.7 National Climate Change Fund The government of Bangladesh has recently established the National Climate Change Fund (NCCF) which mainly focuses on adaptation. Bangladesh is also going beyond its borders to try to find common causes with its neighbors to manage climate change impacts through regional action plans. The country also seeks to enhance cooperation with its neighbors on key issues (BCCSAP 2009). 2.3.8 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Agriculture and Rural Development The government of Bangladesh has launched the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in 2005 to create sustainable environment and to support transformation of subsistence agriculture. The PRSP puts emphasis on achieving productivity and profitability gains, broad-based support to agriculture, diversification and commercialization of agricultural enterprises. This strategy also stresses on agricultural research and technology generation, farmers’ demand-led extension services, energizing the agricultural marketing and agro-processing, land use and involving women in agriculture (Ahmed 2010). 2.3.9 Open Market System Program The government of Bangladesh has introduced the Open Market System (OMS) program in order to ensure affordable food for people of low-income group. The program launched the initiative of selling rice and wheat at lower prices for the poor farmers. In this system, a consumer can buy either rice or flour or both the items separately up to a maximum of 5 kg at a time from the designated OMS truck dealers. According to the Department of Food, the country currently has now 1.2 million tons of rice and 0.25 million tons of wheat at the public warehouses (Habib 2012). golam.rabbani@bcas.net S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba 34 2.3.10 Agricultural Loan The government of Bangladesh provides agricultural loan for the poor farmers. In the 2010–2011 fiscal years, the Bangladesh Bank, the central bank of Bangladesh, set a target of distributing US$1,616,113,744.075829 (taka 12,617 crore) that was 6 % higher than the previous fiscal years. On 28 July, 2012, the Bangladesh Bank announced the agricultural loan policy for 2011–2012 fiscal years with a target to disburse US$1,767,644,421.67 (taka 13, 800 crore) 9.4 % higher than the target of previous fiscal year. 2.3.11 Agricultural Subsidy The government of Bangladesh provides agricultural subsidies to the poor farmers to ensure food production of the country. Bangladesh has started providing subsidies to the agricultural sectors since 2001. Government’s subsidies on agriculture have substantially increased over the years though it slightly declined in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 fiscal years. 2.3.12 Agricultural Input Assistance Card The government of Bangladesh has prepared an “Agriculture Input Assistance Card Program” to allow cash subsidies to the poor small and medium farmers and to ensure self sufficiency in food. The program conducts smooth cash transfers and reduces misappropriation of financial support. The card system is introduced, as the subsidy provided by the government has not always reached the genuine farmers in need. Middlemen or non-farmers embezzled a significant portion of the government assistance. Of the total 18.2 million farmers in Bangladesh, 9.1 million marginal, small and medium farmers will get the cash subsidy under the program. In this system, farmers can receive incentives from banks through using the “Agriculture Input Assistance Card” and for drawing subsidy and monetary transactions, and the farmers need to open bank accounts for only US$ 0.128 (Taka 10). They do not need any identification to open a bank account. 2.3.13 Vision 2021 for Climate Change Management The government of Bangladesh has prepared a plan titled Vision 2021 regarding the management of climate change. The foci of this program are to ensure food security, eradicate poverty, increase employment opportunities, provide access to energy and golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 35 power, and to achieve economic and social wellbeing of all Bangladeshi citizens. There are six pillars outlined in this program: (i) food security, (ii) comprehensive disaster management; (iii) infrastructure development; (iv) research and knowledge management; (v) mitigation and low carbon development; (vi) capacity building and institutional development. 2.3.14 Master Plan for Southern Region of Bangladesh Recently, the Bangladeshi government has started working on a Master Plan for the South in order to address the key challenges of food security in the southern region. The goal of this project is to improve the productivity of crops, livestock and fisheries in the coastal zone, especially in southern delta of Bangladesh. This master plan also includes better use of technology, improved management practices with available knowledge in Bangladesh as well as from other countries. In accordance with the Ministry of Agriculture, the government of Bangladesh is planning a road map to support the integrated development efforts in the southern region of Bangladesh. Considering the water crisis, the country is trying to map out the areas for suitability of crops and use of surface water. The government foresees the multipurpose Padma Bridge as a way of rapid transformation of the agriculture sector in the concerned area. This initiative also focuses on higher crop productivity less use of water and on controlling salinity intrusion into water sources. To ensure continued inflow of fresh water for the southern region, including the Sundarban forest and the production for agriculture, the government is currently working on dredging of the Gorai River for steady inflow of water. The master plan also intends to provide a road map for an integrated rehabilitation and development effort in Bangladesh’s coastal zone aiming at sustainable food security, poverty reduction and livelihood development for the poor. 2.3.15 Goal of Self-Sufficiency in Food Production Since 2010, the local government of Bangladesh has been active in subsidizing improved seed varieties and fertilizer, contributing to the record harvest of staple rice. In 2011, Bangladesh has opened discussions with some African countries and Cambodia with a view to leasing foreign land to grow food for import. At present, the government now has a clear goal of self-sufficiency in food production. The government has also given more attention on modernizing the country’s agriculture system to ensure food security and attain self sufficiency in rice by 2013. The country has also set the goal of ensuring food security through a plan of availability, accessibility and nutrition support by 2017 and to goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2022. golam.rabbani@bcas.net S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba 36 2.4 Conclusion Food security in Bangladesh has become a challenging issue even in the age of globalization. As its population increases day by day, the government of Bangladesh as well as the governmental and nongovernmental organizations should be more concerned about the current challenges of food security in the country. Food crisis has become a dangerous challenge as thousands of its people suffer from scarcity of nearly every basic need. The projected demographic growth and anticipated socio-economic development in Bangladesh would result in substantial increases in food requirements. Properly targeted agricultural productivity investments can diminish the consequences of anthropogenic factors and enhance sustainable food security in Bangladesh in the near future. Increases in agricultural production are essential to meet the demand from population and income. Area expansion for agriculture is not possible in Bangladesh and further the possibility of negative environmental effects due to expansion in the fragile area is significant. Agricultural productivity investments may make it possible to meet that increased demand from existing agricultural land resources, while reducing some of the environmental threats from increased production must be ensured. The overall productivity increase will have the greatest effect on human well-being, reducing the number of malnourished children in the urban areas in Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to promote environmentally and socially sustainable agricultural development as a cornerstone for economic growth. Further, Fostering broad based, sustainable agricultural and rural growth can help to ease food insecurity in Bangladesh case. Addressing the entire rural space and looking beyond farming to include off farm income opportunities can also impact on urban food security in Bangladesh. Promoting not only productivity growth, but also resource access, land tenure, returns to labor and education will also contribute to face the grim of urban food insecurity. Tackling the unique factors behind increasing urban poverty and improving food security in terms of availability and access, market development, management of natural resources and access to basic services is very important for achieving food security in the long run in a country like Bangladesh. In fact, national and international policies and issues that affect implementation and impact should not be ignored; these include public sector reform and decentralization, peace and security, trade and macroeconomic policy reforms. Determining how developing countries, particularly Bangladesh, can and will respond to reduced yields and increased costs of food in the light of climate change as well as anthropogenic factors to tackle the challenge of food insecurity is a critical research need arising from this study. The study suggests that the worst situation arises not only from scenario of severe climate change, but also low economic growth, continuing large urban population increases, and little farm-level adaptation. In order to minimize possible adverse consequences, like production losses, food price increases, environmental stresses, and an increase in the number of people at risk of hunger, the way forward is to encourage the agricultural sector to continue to golam.rabbani@bcas.net 2 Anthropogenic Causes: Population Pressure, Demographic Changes, Urbanization… 37 develop crop breeding and management programmes for heat and drought conditions, in combination with measures taken to conserve the environment, to use resources more proficiently, and to slow the growth of the human population of the country. References Ahmed CQKM (2010) Agriculture in Bangladesh: present position, problems, prospects and policy, power point presentation, Ministry of Agriculture. Available at: www.bpatc.org.bd/handouts/ Agriculture_Bangladesh.ppt. Accessed 23 Sept 2014 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2009) Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh Banu SP, Duxbury JM, Lauren JG, Meisner C, Islam R (2004) Wheat seed quality – a study on farmers’ seed. 4th International Crop Science Congress. http://www.cropscience.org.au/ icsc2004/poster/2/3/1169_banus.htm . Accessed 9 Sept 2014. Barua GG (2012) Food security in Bangladesh. The Financial Express. Available at: www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/index.php?ref=MjBfMTBfMjMTJfMV82XzE0Nzk1Mg. Accessed 14 Sept 2014 CIA The World Fact Book (2013) CIA The World Fact Book. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/bg.html. Accessed 23 Sept 2014 Eminence (2013) Eminence. http://www.eminence-bd.org/index.php?option = com_content&vie w = article&id = 47 = &Itemid = 41. Accessed 28 Sept 2014 Godfray HCJ et al (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion. Science 327(5967):812–818 Gregory PJ, Ingram JSI (2000) Global change and food and forest production: future scientific challenges. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:3–14. doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(00) 00212–7 Habib TB (2012) Food stock sufficient Govt plans to reduce OMS rice price. The Financial Express. http://www.thefinancialexpressbd.com/index.php?ref = MjBfMTJfMDhfMTJfMV85 MF8xNTI0NTE= Huda N et al (2004) National seed management. Agricultural employees conference and technology fair. Ministry of Agriculture Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Islam MN, Hossain SMA, Baksh ME, Rahman MA, Sarker MABS, Khan ST (2010) Studies on policy option for quality seed production and preservation of cereal crops at farmer’s level for the improvement of food security. National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme, USAID Jaim WMH, Akter S (2012) Seed, fertilizer and innovation in Bangladesh. Industry and policy issues for the future. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC Karim Z (1997) Accelerated agricultural growth in Bangladesh. Seminar on agricultural research on development in Bangladesh. BARC, Dhaka, Bangladesh Loewenthal M (2010) U.S.-Bangladesh partnership advances food security. http://www.weeklyblitz.net/768/us-bangladesh-partnership-advances-foodsecurity. Accessed 14 Jan 2013 Mondal MH (2010) Crop agriculture of Bangladesh: challenges and opportunities. Bangladesh J Agric Res 35(2):235–245 National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008–2015) Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU). Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, Dhaka NFPCSP (2008) The National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008–2015). Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka golam.rabbani@bcas.net 38 S.M.R. Hasan and U. Habiba Parry M et al (2001) Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets. Glob Environ Chang 11:181–183. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5 Rashid M (2012) Future of farming and farmers in Bangladesh. The Financial Express, 12 Sept 2012. http://www.thefinancialexpressbd.com/more.php?news_id=143792&date=2012-09-18. Accessed 22 Nov 2012 Rosegrant MW, Cline SA (2003) Global food security: challenges and policies. Science 302: 1917–1919. doi:10.1126/science.1092958 Tilman D et al (2001) Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change. Science 292:281–284. doi:10.1126/science.1057544 Unnayan Onneshan (2014) Recent trends of growth in agriculture, industry and power. Bangladesh Economic Update March 2014. vol 5, no 3 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management and Food Security Sanjib Kumar Saha and Shampa Barmon Abstract Bangladesh is one of the most disaster vulnerable countries and will become even more so as a result of climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC (2007a) Climate change, 2007: the physical science basic. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Switzerland) indicates the evidence of changes in global climate over the past century. Impacts of climate change on food security are global concerns, but they represent a particular threat for Bangladesh. Environment, agriculture are already under pressure mainly due to an increase in demand for food, services and depletion of natural resources. In last three decades the Government of Bangladesh has invested over $10 billion to make the country resilient to natural disasters (MoEF 2009). Establishment of disaster proof structures and the development of climate resilient crop varieties have led to increased food security. The paper explicates the overall context, summarizes the programmes being undertaken to address the issue of climate change and food security and draws way forward. Keywords Climate change • Food security • Impacts of climate change • Agriculture • Natural resources • Disaster proof structures and climate resilient crops S.K. Saha (*) Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: sanjib.saha@cdmp.org.bd S. Barmon Mission Jannat, House # 376, Road # 9/B, Block - D, Bashundhara R/A, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: shampab50@gmail.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_3 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 39 40 3.1 S.K. Saha and S. Barmon Introduction Ever since the global concerns have been raised about the adverse impact of climate change, the international community has already recognized Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries. The reasons are obvious. It is highly vulnerable, even under no-climate change, due to many factors including its disadvantageous location, flat and low-lying topography, high population density, rampant poverty and chronic inefficiency with regard to institutional arrangement and support system. The magnitude of vulnerability would just increase manifold due to the impacts induced by changing climate. Recent studies suggest that all such factors would exacerbate the current vulnerability and may upset the food security situation of the country (Huq et al. 1996; Warrick and Ahmad 1996). Global climate change has direct and indirect impact on the natural resources and food production of a particular area. Scientists throughout the world are paying much effort to explore the relationship between irreversible climate change and its impact on nature, food production and therefore, food security. With the improvement of calculation models they have found tacit relationship between climate change, food production and food security. The unprecedented impacts of climate change along with other environmental and geomorphologic changes make more concerns over food security especially, for the poor and marginal population (Gregory and Ingram 2000; Parry et al. 2001; Rosegrant and Cline 2003). It is found that climate change is expected to decline rice production and wheat production of Bangladesh again by 8 % and 32 % respectively affecting the food security severely (IPCC 2007a). In the recent decades global food production is increasing in line with and sometimes ahead of demand. FAO, however, projects that demand for cereals will be increased by 70 % by 2050, and will be double in many low-income countries (FAO 2006). Increasing demand for food is an outcome both of larger populations and higher per capita consumption among communities with growing incomes, particularly in Asia. But poor households’ inability to secure food through markets and non-market channels may limit food security even where food is globally abundant. For those who rely on subsistence agriculture, food security is strongly dependent on local food availability, which is attributed to the support and management of the ecosystem i.e. natural resources. The impacts of climate change on food security therefore should consider both direct impacts on local food production and also the interactions with the natural resources and their management (Ericksen et al. 2010; Ingram et al. 2010; Liverman and Kapadia 2010). 3.2 Climate Change and Food Security: A Conceptual Basis Climate change has got diverse interaction and bearing with natural resource management and food security. Figure 3.1 shows that natural resources, agricultural production as impacted by climate change and it’s direct and indirect consequences golam.rabbani@bcas.net 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management… 41 Global Climate Change Increased accumulation of Green House Gases Changes in average temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, glacial Changes in Atmosphere Changes in Biosphere Impact on the Natural Resources Implication on the food distribution, access Changes in Hydrosphere Changes in Lithosphere Impact in the Agricultural Impact on Food Security Fig. 3.1 Conceptual framework on climate change and food security (Source: Adapted from FAO, NRCB) largely determine the food security of the population. ‘Climate change and food security: A conceptual basis’ presented here reveals the logical connection among climate change, natural resource and the food security. Climate change, changes in its different components induce interference in the entire biological and physical systems and either control and/or influence the food production, distribution and access. Within this phenomenon the natural resources possess enormous interaction with the agricultural practices and at the same time as a system exert huge effect on the food security (FAO 2008). There are cohesion and divergence among the components of the framework and yet the extent and intensity of interactions and inter-dependence are huge although these are difficult to quantify and express. However, as it is portrayed here, the relationship and impacts herein are more or less obvious, every single unit is affected and finally food security is always impacted, as demonstrated in the following sections. 3.3 Food Security Situation in Bangladesh According to the World Food Summit, “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. Food security encompasses many issues ranging from food production, distribution according to food preferences and food utilization including market and non-market (natural) factors. The understanding of people of Bangladesh stands food security means a stock of cereals that can be used to meet an unforeseen food crisis. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 42 S.K. Saha and S. Barmon Food certainly is not cereal alone, neither its security is just a sufficient amount of cereal stock. Food means balanced diet and its security refers to availability of such diet at a reasonable price. Ensuring food security has been one of the major goals of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971 (IFAD 2012). With rapid economic growth in the recent years, Bangladesh significantly improves its cropping practices and intensities with a view to fulfill the food requirements for its vast population. Feeding such a huge population is taking huge toll on croplands, private lands, pastures, fisheries resources and forests. With intensification of agricultural production system to meet the increasing demand of food there has been profound changes in the organization in the food production system in Bangladesh. Despite significant achievement in food grain production and food availability, food security at national, household and individual levels remains a matter of major concern for the Government of Bangladesh. Yet the entire production and distribution system have been under consistent change due to natural hazards and adverse impacts of climate change. Bangladesh has achieved remarkable progress in increasing domestic production of food commodities as the principal means to ensuring adequate food availability for its people, especially the poor. The food production of the country (both rice and wheat), was 10.46 million metric tons in the year 1971–1972. Bangladesh attained self-sufficiency in food production in 2010–2011 with a gross production of rice and wheat of 35.0 million metric tons (BER 2011). Food security situation in Bangladesh has improved, especially on average per capita dietary energy supply has improved from 1,800 kcal in 1970s to 3,055 in 2009 (BBS 2010). Food grain production, particularly rice production has tripled in the last 40 years with the use of Green Revolution technology (high yielding varieties, fertilizers, irrigation and pesticide) coupled with growth of institutional infrastructure and a positive shift in public policy and market forces. As a major staple, rice occupies 77 % of the gross cropped area and accounts for over 95 % of food grain production (BARC 2011). It provides about 75 % of the calorie and 55 % of the protein in the average daily diet of the people (Hossain 2004). Rice thus occupies the center stage of food security and continues to draw major attention of the Government for further increasing the production. In 2001–2002, rice production was 24.30 million tons, which has steadily increased to 33.54 million tons in 2010–2011 (Table 3.1). Wheat production also decreased from 1.6 million tons in 2001–2002 to 0.97 million tons in 2010–2011. Similarly, pulses and oilseed production steadily declined mainly because of the loss of areas under these crops to Boro rice and other remunerative winter crops. Production of vegetables and fruits has increased, but at a slow pace from 1.59 million tons and 1.47 million tons in 2001–2002 to 11.19 million tons and 3.56 million tons in 2010–2011 respectively. Spectacular success has been achieved in the production of potato. It has made a quantum jump from 2.90 million tons in 2001–2002 to 8.30 million tons in 2010–2011 (Table 3.1). Fish production increased from 1.89 million tons in 2001–2002 to 2.89 million tons in 2010–2011 (Table 3.2). Meat, milk and egg production has also increased significantly over the last 10 years (Table 3.2). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 43 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management… Table 3.1 Domestic production (gross) trend of food grains, potato, pulses, oilseeds, vegetables and fruits (2001–2002 to 2010–2011) (Million MT) Food grain Years Rice Wheat 2001–2002 24.30 1.61 2010–2011 33.54 0.97 Sources: BBS, DAE (2011) Potato 2.90 8.30 Pulse 0.35 0.72 Oilseeds 0.39 0.84 Vegetables 1.59 11.19 Fruits 1.47 3.56 Table 3.2 Fish, meat, milk and egg production trend Years Fish (MnT) 2001–2002 1.89 2010–2011 2.89 Sources: DLS, DoF (2011) 3.4 Meat (MnT) 0.78 2.95 Milk (MnT) 1.78 1.98 Egg (Million) 4,424 6,078 Natural Resource Management in Bangladesh Natural resource management refers to the conservation, utilization and improvement of the natural resources of certain geographical area for the sustainable livelihood, food security of the community concerned and overall balance and maintenance of the ecosystem. Restoring, managing and using the natural resources in a judicial manner can therefore safeguard and sustain the production of food for a growing population. An emerging body of evidence indicates that mismanagement of natural resource contributes to the vulnerability of human systems to disaster, and that enhanced management can provide a tool for vulnerability reduction (Abramovitz 2001). If so, targeted conservation of particular natural buffer systems will in many circumstances offer no-regrets adaptation opportunities. This can facilitate and ensure food production and sustain the food security of the rural population. Bangladesh has a comparatively low natural resource base with a high growth rate of population. The natural resource base is under serious threat, as many natural resources are either being over-exploited or used sub-optimally. Besides the effects of anthropogenic stresses, the low ‘land-man’ ratio in the country is often further threatened by natural hazards. The complexity of natural resource, utilization patterns of the resources and interaction with the changing climate has important implications for the vulnerability and depletion of the natural resource base. Environmental management and mismanagement are moving towards the center of the adaptation debate. The Policymaker’s Summary of the Assessment Report Four (IPCC AR4) states, “Policies that lessen pressures on resources, improve management of environmental risks, increase food security and welfare of the poorest members of society can simultaneously advance sustainable development and equity, enhance adaptive capacity, and reduce vulnerability to climate and other stresses”. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 44 S.K. Saha and S. Barmon Majority rural poor of Bangladesh depend on Natural Resources (NR) for their food production, food security and livelihoods. Land, water, forests, and live stocks are the sources of food security and livelihoods. The rural economy depends on productivity of the natural resources. Small trade and manufacturing process can not replace dependency over agricultural and natural resources. Consequently, no process of food security and development can be conceived of without putting care for environment and sustainable development at the center stage. On the other hand, as the community people depend heavily on nature for their food and livelihood security, their involvement for caring for environment becomes an extremely critical. Resources, natural resources in particular in Bangladesh are dependent on the weather patterns and other natural elements and are thus predicted to be vulnerable to climate change. Climate change induced natural hazards are potential threats to natural resources and their integrity for human safety and security. Although the extent of impacts are not shown and not known either with certainty, the diverse natural ecosystem resources may be affected in various manners by elements of climate change and its impacts. Exactly how the systems will be affected in future due to climate change however is difficult to speculate at the moment because the dynamics of the various ecosystems including the symbiosis among elements within them and their interaction with anthropogenic factors are only poorly understood right now. Bangladesh is a signatory of the Multilateral Environmental Agreement by which government is committed to undertake certain environmental management actions which are largely beneficial to the general population and the poor in particular. Operationally, environment and food security linkages are evident at two levels – one is conservation of nature and natural resources for sustainable food security while the other is controlling the resources as a buffer for over all human security against any natural threat. 3.5 Climate Change and Its Impact on the Nature and Food Production There is a general agreement at international community working on climate change projections that climate change may lead to significant reductions in agricultural productivity in developing countries. Agricultural production in South Asia could fall by 30 % by 2050 if no action is taken to combat the effects of increasing temperatures and hydrological disruption (IPCC 2007b). Since temperature in the South Asian continent is already reaching critical levels during the pre-monsoon season, this further increment would reduce the yields of all crops, including rice (Wasmann and Dobermann 2007). The impact is obvious on the food production and thus ultimately on the food security of the people and poor people in particular. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management… 45 Climate change is regarded as one of the several interacting factors that affect the natural resources and food production in many ways. Agriculture, fisheries, livestock and biodiversity all are sensitive to climate change as their production system are likely to be affected by climate change (Table 3.3). Other components, such as soil, water, and other natural elements of ecosystem required for food production are also impacted by climate change and climate variability. As the frequency and intensity of climate induced severe weather increase, there is a growing risk of damage to supporting systems like infrastructure, transport, market with consequent disruption of food production and food security. For the sake of food security all these are critical to consider in the formulation of adaptation strategies for people who are currently vulnerable or who could become so within the foreseeable future (FAO 2008). The effect of Aila and Sidr is still there, reminding the misery that climate change is for the people of Bangladesh. These events brought in unbearable distress for common people and destroyed a huge amount of crops, which resulted into food price inflation in 2007–2008. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Bangladesh may experience 10–15 % more rainfall by 2030. This excessive rainfall will result in crop failure and production decline. This again will aggravate the present food security condition and will destroy many people’s livelihoods and thus will drag them below poverty line. All three aspects of food security (e.g. production, entitlement and nutrition) will have to face the brunt of this unleashed monster. Climate change and variability sway the nature and then crop production by exerting primary, secondary and tertiary impacts through raise of temperature, erratic rainfall, sea level rise etc. An account of recent study, research findings are described below that portray how climate change re-shapes the resource management, whole food production and food security. Impact of Temperature on Crop Production Temperature plays important role in vegetative and reproductive growth and when temperature falls below the range or exceeded the upper limit, crop production faces constraints. A study (Islam et al. 2008) found that 1 °C increase in maximum temperature at vegetative, reproductive and ripening stages there was a decrease in Aman rice production by 2.94, 53.06 and 17.28 tons respectively. With the change in temperature (by 2 °C and 4 °C), the prospect of growing wheat and potato would be severely impaired. Impact of Rainfall on Crop Production Crop and plants have critical stages when they require water for their growth and development. Excessive rainfall may cause flooding and water logging condition that lead to crop loss. It is found that for 1 mm increase in rainfall at vegetative, reproductive and ripening stages decreased the Aman rice production by 0.036, 0.230 and 0.292 ton respectively. Scarcity of water limits crop production while irrigation coverage is only 56 % as delivered by the Bangladesh Agriculture Development Corporation (BADC). Impact of Sea Level Rise on Crop Production Sea level rise affects agriculture in three ways, i.e., by salinity intrusion, by flooding and by increasing cyclone frequency golam.rabbani@bcas.net 46 Table 3.3 Physical vulnerability context golam.rabbani@bcas.net Flood River flood +++ ++ + ++ ++ ++ ++ + + Flash flood ++ + + + + + − + − Cyclone and storm surges +++ + +++ + ++ + ++ +++ + Erosion − − − +++ − − − +++ − Sectoral vulnerability context Crop agriculture Fisheries Livestock Infrastructure Industries Biodiversity Health Human settlement Energy S.K. Saha and S. Barmon Sea level rise Extreme Coastal Salinity temperature inundation intrusion Drought +++ ++ +++ +++ ++ + + ++ ++ ++ +++ + + ++ − − ++ +++ ++ − +++ +++ +++ + +++ + +++ ++ − − − − ++ + − + Source: National Adaptation Programme of Action, Bangladesh 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management… 47 and its depth of damage. Combined effects of these three factors decrease agriculture production in the coastal zone. Salinity intrusion due to sea level rise will decrease agricultural production by unavailability of fresh water and soil degradation (MoEF 2012). In addition to this, sea level rise cause inundation of more area which is already reported by scientist. Therefore, damage of agricultural crops will be more acute in future. Impact of Flood on Crop Production Flood has most deleterious effect on crop production of Bangladesh. The 1988 flood caused reduction of agricultural production by 45 % (Karim et al. 1996). Higher discharge and low drainage capacity, in combination with increased backwater effects, would increase the frequency of such devastating floods under climate change scenarios. Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production, as observed during the floods of 1998. Loss of Boro rice crop from flash floods has become a regular phenomenon in the Haor areas over the recent years. Impact of Cyclone on Crop Production Cyclone causes huge damage to production of crop. FAO/GIEWS Global Watch (2007) reported that at the time of the passage of cyclone, SIDR, the main 2007 “Aman” rice crop, accounting for about 70 % of the annual production in the most affected area, was nearly to harvest. According to the estimate by Department of Agricultural Extension of Bangladesh, the loss in rice equivalent is found at 1.23 million tons, with 535,707 tons in the four severely affected districts, 555,997 tons in badly affected 9 districts and 203,600 tons in moderately affected 17 districts in Bangladesh. Impact of Drought on Crop Production Due to Climate Change Drought mostly affects Bangladesh in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods. The drought condition in North-Western Bangladesh in the recent decades had led to a shortfall of rice production of 3.5 million tons in the 1990s. A severe drought can cause more than 40 % damage to broadcast Aus. Each year, during the Kharif season, drought causes significant damage to the T.Aman crop in about 2.32 million ha. In the Rabi season, 1.2 million ha of cropland are facing droughts of various magnitudes. Apart from loss to agriculture, droughts have significant effect on land degradation, livestock population, employment and health (FAO 2007). 3.6 Initiatives and Institutions for Food Security Food security is governed by several institutions and policies in Bangladesh. In order to respond to the multidimensional nature of food security, various sectors and disciplines are represented in the institutions, including agriculture, rural development, women and children affairs, health, finance, commerce and disaster management. National Agriculture Policy 2013, National Food Policy 2006, National Environment Policy and Implementation Guideline 1992, National Plan for Disaster Management 2010–2015 and other policy documents have mentioned importance golam.rabbani@bcas.net 48 S.K. Saha and S. Barmon of ensuring natural resource management and food security and categorically emphasized the ways to combat climate change to secure food for the nation. National Adaptation Programme of Action draws upon possible adaptation measures where it mentions the food security and pro-poor safety-net programmes. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (MoEF 2009) has re-affirmed and included the food security as the first of the six pillars in the strategy. There are 44 programmes, 28 of those have specific relevance to food security and adaptation which are organized under four major issues: (a) food security, social protection and health, (b) comprehensive disaster management, (c) infrastructure, and (d) research and knowledge management. The BCCSAP creates space to plan for a combination of the two different approaches to adaptation, which has significant potential to reduce adverse impacts in agriculture-based production system and thereby contribute towards reducing overall food insecurity. National Food Policy (NFP) 2006 has declared its overriding goal of ensuring a dependable sustained food security system for all people of the country at all times by ensuring availability of food, access to food and utilization of food. Three objectives of NFP are to ensure: (i) adequate and stable supply of safe and nutritious food; (ii) accessibility to food through enhancing people’s purchasing power, and (iii) adequate nutrition for all, especially women and children (MoFDM 2006). Over the last three decades, the Government has invested more than US$10 billion to make the country more climate resilient and less vulnerable to natural disasters. Climate change will severely challenge the country’s ability to achieve the high rates of economic growth needed to sustain these development effort to ensure food and nutrition security (MoEF 2009). On the whole the over-all food security policy so far has revolved around raising production of staples leaving the other aspects less attended to. But over time, the situation is being amended. The Government has prepared a US$7.8 billion Food Security Investment Plan with far more attention to the access and utilization aspects including the impacts of climate change as a sequel to the G20 L’Aquila initiative in 2008. The contribution of foreign aid assistance is expected to be US$5.1 billion of which US$3.4 billion has been identified as first priority requirements (GoB 2011). Government of Bangladesh, under the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund Act 2010, created Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund worth US$100 million dollar and has already allocated US$200 million or BDT14 billion for this trust fund for undertaking projects related with climate change adaptation and mitigations measures (MoEF 2010). Bangladesh has also created Climate Change Resilience Fund where mainly funds from foreign sources are accumulated as developed countries have pledged to contribute $120 million. This fund has less national or local control as this has to be used according to the guidelines of donor countries or concerned institutions. This fund will be used in the implementation of six pillars of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009. Number of national and local level programmes and projects are getting implemented that take care of climate change adaptation, food security and disaster golam.rabbani@bcas.net 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management… 49 risk reduction. Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), a GoB and UNDP programme, has been implementing in almost every hazard prone corners of Bangladesh. CDMP has been pursuing harmonization among the programmes and project in Bangladesh with regard to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. With a view to integrate and mainstream the climate change adaptation in the public domain CDMP has been improving the capacity of the government both at local implementation and the national policy levels. 3.7 Challenges and Limitations to Ensure Food Security Government of Bangladesh has been trying to integrate and address all the elements associated with food security to achieve universal goal (MGD). However, there remain certain challenges and limitations that constrain all efforts and initiatives. A few of the factors are summarized here under. Incapacity of the Institution Capacity of the Ministry of Food in assessing, planning, monitoring and implementing the policy and development interventions to effectively deal with the food security issues is relatively weak due to shortage of skilled manpower. Inter-ministerial coordination and interaction with regard to work on the issues of food security, related aspects like production, marketing, distribution and regular coordination and collaboration with the research institutes, private sectors and civil society are lacking. Reduced Allocation and Funding Investment in agriculture (crops, fisheries and livestock), in general, has been drastically reduced from last three decades. ADP share has also declined from 5 % in 1981–1982 to less than 10 % in 2010–2011. Donor funding in agriculture has also declined significantly, although one of the conditions for attaining MDG is the commitment of extended donor support in agriculture. Livestock sub-sector is affected most due to low budget allocation. Limited Updated Information and Technologies Bangladesh as a developing country has limitations to modern technology and updated information, data as an adaptation response to climate change. Although there have been availability of some modern technologies, varieties but in most cases these are limited to certain geographical locations. On the other hand updated information and data on the changing climate pattern and required knowledge on the appropriate application are not available and accessible. Chronic Socio-natural Poverty In some areas of the county where natural hazards and related impacts are almost an annual phenomenon, the poor people are in constant dearth of resources to combat the situation. Required supports either from the government and other sources like social safety-net or contingency are not adequate and thus they remain in a regular misery. golam.rabbani@bcas.net S.K. Saha and S. Barmon 50 3.8 Recommendations and Looking Forward Climate change amplifies the environmental and socioeconomic drivers of food insecurity, it is imperative to prioritize where, how and when to act. Over the course of the twenty-first century, the world will need to produce significantly more food in order to deliver a basic, but adequate, diet to everyone. The amount of food required will be even greater if current trends in diets and the management of food systems continue. It is urgent to make concerted efforts to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, make efficient use of resources and develop an effective distribution mechanism to constitute a sustainable food security system. Following recommendations may be put forward for further review and action as appropriate. Mainstreaming Climate Change Issues in the Policies Climate change issues need to be integrated in the current and upcoming policies and programmes with regard to food security, agriculture and related disciplines. Provisioning More Fund for Food Production More budget should be allocated in the annual development plan so that the ministries, agencies are able to utilize required fund for food production, availability and accessibility and contingency, safety-nets. Improving and Augmenting the Technology and Methods Invent and improve climate and disaster resilient technologies (crop, animal, fish varieties), tools, methods and process. Generating and Disseminating Updated Information Invest time and resources to collect, update and downscale climate change data and information. The data and information are required to be packaged in an affordable and useful form for all level users right from the policy makers to the local level users. Creating and Applying a Shared Information System Creating a comprehensive, easily accessible information system that foster easy access to information and thus enable sharing and use at all levels. Strengthening Capacity of Institutions and Communities There is a need to develop the planning, coordination and monitoring capacity of the ministry, agencies and the communities for better planning, coordination and implementation. Integrating and Sustaining Social Protection Schemes In order to provide immediate access to food, social protection schemes (safety nets) are required to safeguard existing assets and human capital from shocks and disaster. 3.9 Conclusion Climate change and related impacts are likely to reduce crop yields and exacerbate the risk of food insecurity in Bangladesh. The changes may even affect the incomes earned by the poor and raise food prices with the net effect on food security and golam.rabbani@bcas.net 3 Natural Causes: Climate Change Implications, Resource Management… 51 the household’s livelihood strategies. It is worth to mention that although food production in Bangladesh is increasing in line with its high population demand, the scenario may change with the likely changes and outcomes of flood, drought, sea level rise, saline intrusion, cyclones etc. The government needs to prioritize and implement measures to advance agriculture production and sustainable natural resources management to ensure food security for the people. The ‘business as usual’ approach to tackle the climate change problem will not reduce the vulnerability of food insecure people as this vulnerability is exacerbated by existing developmental challenges. References Abramovitz JN (2001) Unnatural disasters. Worldwatch paper 158, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC BARC (2011) Study on rural households’ food security in coastal region of Bangladesh Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Southern Zone of Bangladesh BBS (2010) Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance and Planning, GoB, Dhaka BER (2011) Bangladesh economic review. Bureau of Economic Research (BER), University of Dhaka Ericksen P, Stewart B, Ingram J, Dixon J, Barling D, Loring P, Anderson M (2010) The value of the food systems approach. In: Ingram J, Ericksen P, Liverman D (eds) Food security and global environmental change. Earthscan, London, p 352. ISBN 9781849711289 FAO (2006) The state of food insecurity in the world. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome FAO (2007) Climate variability and change: adaptation to drought in Bangladesh. pp 66 FAO (2008) Climate change and food security: a framework document. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome GoB (2011) Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010–2011. General Economics Division, Planning Commission, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, July, 2012 Gregory PJ, Ingram JSI (2000) Global change and food and forest production: future scientific challenges. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:3–14. doi:10.1016/S0167-8809 (00) 00212-7 Hossain (2004) Food security and nutrition in Bangladesh: progress and determinants, a report prepared for FAO, Rome Huq S, Ahmed AU, Koudstaal R (1996) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise. In: Downing TE (ed) Climate change and world food security. Springer Verlag, Berlin IFAD (2012) Enabling poor rural people to overcome poverty in Bangladesh, Rome, p 7. Available at http://www.ifad.org/operations/projects/regions/PI/factsheets/bd.pdf Ingram J, Holmes J, Andersson J, Giller K, Bammer G, Brown M, Henrichs T, Jones JW, Schilpzand, R. Schuttelaar and Partners, Young, J (2010) Engaging stakeholders at the regional level. In: Ingram J, Ericksen P, Liverman D (eds) Food security and global environmental change. Earthscan, London, p 352. ISBN 9781849711289 IPCC (2007a) Climate change, 2007: the physical science basic. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Switzerland IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p 976 Islam MN, Baten MA, Hossain MS, Islam MT (2008) Impact of few important climatic parameters on Aman rice production in Mymensingh District. J Environ Sci Nat Res 1(2):49–54 golam.rabbani@bcas.net S.K. Saha and S. Barmon 52 Karim Z, Hussain SG, Ahmed M (1996) Assessing impacts of climate variations on foodgrain production in Bangladesh. Water Air Soil Pollut 92:53–62 Liverman D, Kapadia K (2010) Food security and the global environment: an overview. In: Ingram J, Ericksen P, Liverman D (eds) Food security and global environmental change. Earthscan, London, p 352. ISBN 9781849711289 MoEF (2009) National Adaptation Programme of Action 2009. Ministry of Environment and Forest, Dhaka MoEF (2010) Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund Act 2010. Ministry of Environment and Forest MoEF (2012) Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment and Forest MoFDM (2006) National Food Policy, 2006. Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Parry M et al (2001) Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets. Glob Environ Chang 11:181–183. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5 Rosegrant MW, Cline SA (2003) Global food security: challenges and policies. Science 302:1917–1919. doi:10.1126/science.1092958 Warrick RA, Ahmad QK (eds) (1996) The implications of climate and sea – level change for Bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, p 415 Wasmann R, Dobermann A (2007) Climate change adaptation through rice production in region with high poverty levels. SATe-J 4:1–24 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 4 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh Abu Wali Raghib Hassan and Anil Kumar Das Abstract Agriculture in Bangladesh is caught in a low equilibrium trap with productivity of staples, supply shortfalls, high prices, low returns to farmer and area diversification. All these factors can be threat to food security. The country has the highest concentration of undernourished and poor people though Bangladesh has established a food bank to meet the needs of food security. This is despite the felt need of country to evolve mechanisms to make the Food security reserve operational. It is against this background that topic has been undertaken. Conducted in collaboration with think tanks from country, it aims to identify social issues relating occupational change and food security, the policy initiatives taken to tackle these issues, evaluate these policies and suggest measures to overcome identified constraints in order to improve the food security situation in the country under a strategic plan giving importance to the agriculture sector. Keywords Social issues • Food security • Sixth five years plan • Million development goal (MDG) • Non-crop agriculture (NCA) 4.1 Introduction Bangladesh has a primarily agrarian economy. Agriculture is the single largest producing sector of the economy since it comprises about 19.28 % of the country’s GDP and employs around 45 % of the total labor force. The performance of this sector has an overwhelming impact on major macroeconomic objectives like employment generation, occupation change, poverty alleviation, human resources development and food security. In our subsistence agriculture the land less and small farmers are very much vulnerable section of the society. Rural Bangladesh is mainly dominated by agricultural society. Social life of the people is decorated with A.W.R. Hassan (*) • A.K. Das Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: hassan58_dae@yahoo.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_4 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 53 A.W.R. Hassan and A.K. Das 54 various cultural events relating the crop calendar of the year. Economic activities of the country are still moving with the momentum of agro based occupations. On the other hand this country is mainly alluvial plain divided into three zones namely hill, terrace and flood plain based on geomorphology and physiographic point of view. This land is frequently visited by natural hazards of which floods, cyclones with accompany of storm surge; drought, tornadoes and river bank erosion are the most disasters to mentions. All these issues very much concern to food security and mode of occupation change in the rural Bangladesh. 4.2 Social Issues and the Strategic Plans With a population of 160 million on a land mass of 147,000 km2, Bangladesh is among the most densely populated countries on earth. Over three quarters of the population lives in rural areas where agriculture is the mainstay of the rural economy. Society is mainly dominated by Agriculture. Over half of rural dwellers live below the national poverty line, and over 40 million are classified as undernourished (FAO 2006). Thus food security and poverty reduction are mainstays of government development efforts. To achieve these goals, the government of Bangladesh prioritizes diversified production, employment, and income generation on farms in its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (Bangladesh Planning Commission 2005). Keeping in mind the Poverty Reduction Strategy the sixth five years plan has been adapted. Government recognizes that Bangladesh is still a low income country with substantial poverty, inequality and deprivation. An estimated 47 million people are living below the poverty line with a significant proportion living in households which are female headed, in remote areas, and consisting of socially excluded and other vulnerable people. Most of the labor force is engaged in informal low productivity and low income jobs. The access to secondary and tertiary education is limited and the quality of education at all levels is deficient. The poor group of the population is severely disadvantaged in terms of ownership of assets and has inadequate access to institutional finance as well as to basic services including quality education, healthcare, water and sanitation. These people, and among them especially women and children, are also disproportionately affected by natural disasters and the adverse effects of climate change. Despite expansion, publicly supported mitigating measures in the form of social protection programs are still inadequate. In recognition of the long -term development challenges, the government adopted the Vision 2021. The Vision 2021 and the associated Perspective Plan 2010–2021 have set solid development targets for Bangladesh by the end of 2021. Those targets if achieved will transform socio-economic environment of Bangladesh from a low income economy to the first stages of a middle income economy. Along with higher per capita income, Vision 2021 lays down a development scenario where citizens will have a higher standard of living, will be better educated, will face better social justice, will have a more equitable socio-economic environment, and the sustainability of development will be ensured through better protection from climate change and natural disasters. The associated political environment will be based on golam.rabbani@bcas.net 4 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh 55 democratic principles with emphasis on human rights, freedom of expression, rule of law, equality of citizens irrespective of race, religion and creed, and equality of opportunities. The Bangladesh economy will be managed within the two framework of a market economy with appropriate government interventions to correct market distortions, to ensure equality of opportunities, and to ensure equity and social justice for all. The implementation of Vision 2021 will be done through two medium term development. 4.2.1 An Overview of Agricultural Growth in Bangladesh Although the share of agriculture in gross domestic product (GDP) has declined from over half at the time of independence to around one fifth currently, it remains the predominant sector in terms of employment and livelihood, with about half of Bangladesh’s workforce engaged in it as the principal occupation. Agriculture is the principal source of food and nutrition. Therefore the level of farm production and prices are a key determinant of poverty and human welfare. Agriculture also contributes significantly to export earnings of Bangladesh and agricultural output is used as an important source of raw materials of many industries. Therefore, the importance of agriculture sector in generating employment, alleviating poverty and fostering growth is needless to mention. Agricultural growth has accelerated from less than 2.0 % per year during the first two decades after independence to around 3.0 % during the last decade. Despite such a steady growth in agriculture as well as in food production, Bangladesh has been facing persistent challenges in achieving food security. This is mainly due to natural disasters and fluctuations in food prices from the influence of volatile international market for basic food items. Sudden increase of price of staple food such as rice and flour erode the purchasing capacity of the poor people. Access to food will continue to depend on comprehensive economic development including faster growth in industry and service sector of the economy. But since almost half of the labor force still depend on the agricultural sector for employment, growth of this sector and favorable terms of trade for agricultural commodities are crucial for increasing incomes of the low-income people and to expand their capacity for accessing food. A rapid agricultural growth will sustain high growth of the economy with better capacity to reduce poverty through enhancing rural wages, creating synergies for diversifying the rural economy, and enabling the supply of low-cost food to improve nutritional status and food security of the people. Encouraging agricultural growth requires various policies ranging from applying new technology and extension services to providing credit to small farmers. The past growth in agriculture was helped by the new HYV (High yielding variety) technology, particularly in rice, in which both the state and the market played important roles. The Government would continue its pro-active role in delivering key public goods in agriculture, particularly in improving the ability of farmers to adopt new technology and providing appropriate mix of incentives to pursue profitable operations. Efforts would be made to ensure preservation of indigenous golam.rabbani@bcas.net 56 A.W.R. Hassan and A.K. Das knowledge with respect to seeds, plants and herbs, where tapping the traditional knowledge base of both rural men and woman would be important. Particular attention would be given to develop and adopt technologies and improved agricultural practices in ecologically vulnerable areas such as saline prone areas and flood and drought prone locations. In recognition to women’s various contributions in farm productivity (fisheries, livestock, poultry etc.) and agricultural growth (pre and post harvesting, field crop production) special measures would be taken to increase women’s participation in these sectors. Bangladesh has made significant progress in food grain and especially rice production but ensuring food security of the people of Bangladesh remains a daunting challenge. The National Food Policy and its Plan of Action identify the objectives to be fulfilled so as to ensure food security, extending the concept of food security well beyond that of food availability. In this context, agriculture contributes to food security by making enough varied and nutritious food available and by providing employment thus ensuring economic access to food. “The 2011 Country Investment Plan (CIP): A roadmap towards investments in agriculture, food security and nutrition” has been formulated within the context of the SFYP to help focus Government, DP and non-Government interventions on priority areas. 4.3 Performance of Agriculture Sector Agriculture sector is comprised of four sub sectors, e.g. crops, forestry, livestock and fisheries with crop sub sector being the predominant one (Table 4.1). In spite of the gradual decline of the relative importance of crop sector in agriculture and in Table 4.1 Growth performances of agriculture sub-sectors FY80-90 Growth as % change Agriculture (A + B) A. Agriculture and forestry (i) Crops and horticulture (ii) Animal farming (iii) Forest and related services B. Fishing (Share as % of GDP) Agriculture (A + B) A. Agriculture and forestry (i) Crops and horticulture (ii) Animal farming (iii) Forest and related services B. Fishing Source: BBS (2011) FY91-00 FY00-05 FY05-09 FY10 FY11(P) 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.8 1.5 1.1 2.5 3.5 8.1 3.3 3.6 3.2 4.5 4.7 2.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.4 5.4 4.1 5.2 5.6 6.1 3.4 5.2 4.1 5.0 4.8 5.0 3.5 5.4 5.4 31.1 26.5 20.2 2.2 4.8 26.7 21.4 16.1 3.4 2.0 5.3 23.9 18.4 13.7 3.0 1.9 5.4 21.4 16.6 12.0 2.9 1.8 4.8 20.3 15.8 11.4 2.7 1.7 4.5 20.0 15.5 11.2 2.6 1.7 4.4 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 4 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh 57 national economy, it still has remained the most important sector of agriculture. More importantly, the crop sector provides staple food such as rice and wheat, and other daily necessities like pulses, oil, sugar, vegetables, spices, and fruits. Non-crop agriculture (livestock, fisheries and forestry) also plays a significant role in terms of employment generation and contribution to GDP. Although livestock accounts for only 3 % of total GDP, it employs about 20 % of rural labor force. Fisheries sub-sector contributes about 5 % of total GDP and employs about 13 % of rural labor force. Livestock sub-sector contributes output for both production and consumption. However there exists a gap between requirement of livestock products and their current levels of production and, this gap is expected to widen further due to increase in per capita income and change in food consumption pattern. Fisheries sector contributes 4.4 % of total GDP and 22 % of agricultural GDP. The -scale open water capture fisheries which was dominant in the 1970s has given way to close water culture fisheries, which is now playing an important role in the development of the sub-sector. Forestry sector contributes about 1.8 % of the total GDP. Forests also play an important role in protecting watersheds, irrigation and hydraulic structure and also in keeping the rivers and ports navigable and protect coastal areas from natural calamities. The role of forest in protecting the environment from pollution and its contribution towards bio-diversity is immense. In addition, the participatory social forestry contributes towards rural poverty reduction. For example, in the last 3 years, out of total sale proceeds of timber and fuel wood about 308 million taka has been distributed to 23,561 participants. Bangladesh has achieved remarkable progress in agriculture since her independence in 1971. Within crop sub-sector, food grain, particularly rice crop dominated country’s agricultural scenario in terms of both cropped area and production, claiming a share of 74 % and 54 % respectively in 1996/1997. There has, however, been shift in the composition of agriculture over the past few years as indicated by gradual decline in the share of crop agriculture and increase in the share of non-crop agriculture (NCA). In crop agriculture, Bangladesh has made steady progress in the post-independence period. The cropping intensity increased from 148 % to 181 %. Food grain production although increased substantially over the years, following the introduction of high yielding varieties (HYV) and application of modern inputs like fertilizers and pesticides; but its dependence on weather results in fluctuations in production. Wide fluctuations in production leads to large instability in food grain prices having serious implications for household food security and also for the welfare of the people. For over a decade, a wide range of policy reforms have been implemented. Few of these are privatization of input distribution, input and food subsidy, import liberalization and a of the scope of private investment in agriculture. In recent years, the coverage of policy reforms in the agriculture sector has substantially expanded to include minor irrigation equipment, agricultural machinery, seeds and agricultural trade. golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.W.R. Hassan and A.K. Das 58 4.4 Key Challenges The myriad of existing policies are generally compatible in terms of their avowed goals of rapid poverty reduction, increasing productivity and profitability of farming, creating income and employment opportunities, especially for the rural population. The major thrusts of these policies are largely consistent with the MDGs as well as the strategies and future policy priorities of agriculture and rural development policy matrix suggested in the previous plan documents. However, there are some generic areas of concerns. Those are as follows: 4.4.1 Dominance of Cereal Food Production The National Agriculture Policy, 1999, National Agriculture Policy Plan of Action 2004, APB and other major crop sector policy documents mainly focus on food production, especially rice production, giving lesser attention to non cereal crops i.e. vegetables, fruits and flowers. As one would expect, policy prescriptions for input distribution and input levels, extension services, credit delivery and output marketing are directed to major cereal food crop, rice and not much to wheat. 4.4.2 Inadequate Progress with Diversification and Commercialization The policy documents mention diversification and commercialization of agriculture as a common objective, but very little understanding is given with respect to relative profitability of competing crops, physical and location specific conditions for non-crop enterprise, supply chain of high value products and provision for processing, storage and marketing activities. 4.4.3 Lack of Modernization of Soil and Water Tests Soil tests for proper fertilizer use and water quality tests for fish culture are crucially important interventions. The concerned policies mention these casually to imply that the government should do these, but there does not seem to be much understanding of the recent trends that the private sector has already taken up soil tests (with Catalyst support) and water test by as business ventures, for example by an local NGO, Shushilon. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 4 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh 4.4.4 59 Lack of Modern Form of Production-Contract Farming and Value Chain The policies being reviewed conceive agriculture as individualistic production system, although this is becoming economically and technically unfeasible for increasingly large number of small and marginal farmers due to rapid decline in average farm size. Increase in number of farms vis-à-vis rapid loss of cultivable land is recognized in the documents, but there are no reflections on or contemplation about the emerging new forms of farming e.g. contract farming by the private sector for high value products like poultry, vegetables, aromatic rice, milk and so on. 4.4.5 Absence of Farm and Non-farm Linkages The most conspicuous shortcoming of all the policy documents is their silence over the growing non-farm sector development. Even the most recent policy documents, e.g. APB, avoid any analysis of linking the growth of farm productivity with development of non-farm activities. In addition to the above mentioned issues, some other constraints in this sector are: • Absence of demanding technologies to co-opt with climate change, • Unstable market price of agricultural products, which is a barrier for farmers to select crops for cultivation in the following season/year, • Very little stress to agro-based industrialization, • Depletion of soil health/soil fertility, • Unusual depletion of underground water table, • Unwise development of infrastructures (dams, roads etc.) blocking drainage, • Non-zonal based cultivation and lack of development of market chain, • Overlapping of irrigation units with less command area, causing huge loss of underground water and resulting in depletion of ground water table. • Overdose of chemical fertilizer by the farmer is a threat to soil health. 4.5 Employment and Occupations Employment provides the key link between economic growth and poverty making it the major instrument for poverty reduction in Bangladesh. Labour force (age 15+) in Bangladesh increased from around 19.7 million in 1974 to 49.5 million in 2006, the latest available year for Labour Force Survey (LFS). That gives an annual long term trend growth rate of 2.9 %. The labour force growth rate was more expansive in recent years owing to the changing demographic structure of higher share of golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.W.R. Hassan and A.K. Das 60 Table 4.2 Major occupations distribution in Bangladesh (percent) Principal occupation Crop agriculture Non crop agriculture Labor Transport Trading Service House work Industry Old age Retired Total Source: Qusem (2009) Metropolitan 30.00 0.70 12.00 3.30 30.70 14.00 0.70 0.00 4.70 4.00 100.00 Urban 42.70 2.0 4.70 4.00 24.00 10.70 3.30 0.70 3.30 4.70 100.00 Pre-urban 46.00 00.0 12.00 2.00 26.00 8.00 1.30 00.00 3.30 1.30 100.00 Rural 54.70 1.30 10.70 1.30 15.30 5.30 3.30 0.70 6.00 1.30 100.00 Total 45.30 1.00 9.80 2.70 24.00 9.50 2.20 0.30 4.30 2.80 100.00 population in the working age group as well as a rising female participation rate. Thus, the average annual growth of labour force between 2000 and 2006 was 3.3 %. As compared to labour force, employment grew at a slightly slower pace of 2.8 % annually. As a result, the unemployment rate, traditionally defined, increased modestly, 15 reaching 2.1 million people, which is about 4 % of the labour force. This relatively modest unemployment rate, however, hides the true employment challenge in Bangladesh. Like other poor agrarian economies, Bangladesh suffers from what is known as the problem of “disguised unemployment” that is characterized by the concentration of a large number of workers in low hours, low productivity, and low income jobs. These disguised unemployed are engaged in agriculture and informal services. A field survey conducted by Qusem (2009) revealed the distribution of major occupations in Bangladesh (Table 4.2). The total perspective has been differentiated into metropolitan, urban, pre-urban and rural sectors. Nature of occupation varies with the variations in occupational sectors. Metropolitan, urban, pre urban and rural area is dominated by crop agriculture and trading. Total result also reflected the similar trend in occupation. So agriculture is still playing a vital role in the distribution of occupational variations. Crop agriculture in Bangladesh is, however, constrained by a number of challenges. The most important challenges are loss of arable land, population growth and climate change effect on agriculture. Bangladesh has lost about 1 million ha of productive arable land from 1983 to 1996 (BBS 1999). That is about 80,000 ha of agricultural land per year are going out of crop production. Another major challenge to agriculture is the increase in the growth of population. Population is increasing @ two million per year and total population would be around 233 million by 2050 if current growth rate continues. Climate change is another vital factor affecting the crop sector of Bangladesh. As a result of climate change soil fertility, crop productivity, occupation of the rural golam.rabbani@bcas.net 4 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh 61 people and food security would be seriously threatened. Is has also accelerated hunger, poverty, malnutrition and incidence of diseases (IPCC 2007). This vulnerable situation of the crop agricultural is directly concerned to the stability of the people involved in crop agriculture. 4.6 Food Security Status The Government of Bangladesh has identified Food Security as an important factor contributing to its socio-economic stabilization and development. Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. To discuss food security, three important aspects must be considered e.g. availability of adequate food, stability in food supplies, access to food, and nutrition security. Bangladesh has made a steady progress in the expansion of food production. But because of the increasing population pressure there has been an extensive use of land to meet the growing demand for food. Despite the growth in food production and its availability, food insecurity is still a major problem mainly because of the lack of purchasing power and thus of access to food, especially for the ultra poor community. A major portion of the rural population is landless, and as labors they depend on casual earning for their livelihood. Due to the seasonal variation in agricultural employment and limited employment opportunities in nonfarm sector, millions of people suffer from chronic and transitory food insecurity. The average Bangladesh diet is deficit in energy by about 15 %. It is seriously unbalanced with an inadequate intake of fat, oil, fish/animal protein, fruit and vegetable. The 1996 World Food Summit definition of food security is “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. 4.6.1 Food Security Status and Challenges Food security situation in Bangladesh has improved, especially on the availability side, and further improvements on access and utilization, to be sustainable and large-scale, needs renewed efforts from the government, civil society (including media) and the development partners. Records say in 1970s, 70 % people were under the food consumption poverty line. Today this is down to under half of the population. Today, though people are not dying, they are going hungry and becoming stunted with reduced mental and physical capacity. They are suffering. The hungry population of over 60 million people is larger than most other global cases- the third largest poor population in any country after China and India. Nearly half of golam.rabbani@bcas.net 62 A.W.R. Hassan and A.K. Das Bangladesh’s children are underweight, making it one of the most severe cases of malnutrition in the world. While Bangladesh has definitely got more food than it had 30 years back, yet almost half of Bangladesh is still far from being food secure. The World Bank and GoB-UN in their respective reports on MDGs, put the target of 34 % children being underweight as non-attainable at present rates of progress. Much will need to be done to achieve the 2015 MDG target of halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger and malnutrition. Demographic changes in upcoming years are likely to affect poverty and hunger in adverse ways. While poverty is an overall denominator of this food insecurity in the country, the additional intensifiers are disability (gender, age, and physical challenge) and location (disaster proneness, access to the market, etc.) as well as other aspects related to utilization (education, awareness, cultural practices, etc.). Issues of governance and accountability further thwart attempts at providing targeted safety nets and price stabilization. Access to food is very vital particularly in a country like Bangladesh where about 50 % of population lives below the poverty line. The income of the poor does not permit them to have sufficient food intake. The strategic goal of the national policy would be to improve the ‘access’ concerns for an effective food security situation in the country. Increasing poor peoples’ access to food requires improvement of earning capacity of the poor and vulnerable section of the population and successful implementation of the targeted food programs in a cost effective manner. 4.7 Conclusion Agricultural development, perhaps more so in Bangladesh than in many other places, is an essential part of reducing (mainly rural) poverty and improving food security and occupation opportunities. The most direct role of the agricultural sector relates to ensuring the availability of food and maintaining low prices in local markets. However, the development of the agricultural sector with its high multiplier effects, results in increased agricultural income which is, in turn, an important driver of rural growth and thus key to improved access to food in rural areas. The agricultural sector plays a key role in addressing the need of ensuring a more balance diet and food security in Bangladesh. This role entails improving the incentives for producing non staple food, including vegetables, fruit, pulses, oils and animal food, but also in increasing the nutrient density of rice. The employment opportunities were mainly dominated by the agriculture sector. Due to diverse issues people engaged in agriculture are moving to alternative occupations which ultimately influence agricultural production and creating adverse effects on food security issues. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 4 Social Issues: Occupation Change and Food Security in Bangladesh 63 References Bangladesh Planning Commission (2005) Unlocking the potential: national strategy for accelerated poverty reduction. Published by Planning Commission, Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh BBS (1999) Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Statistic and Information Division (SID), Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh BBS (2011) Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Statistical pocket Book of Bangladesh-2011, Statistic and Information Division (SID), Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh FAO (2006) The state of food insecurity in the world. FAO, Rome Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Report of working group-II, Cambridge, UK Qusem Md, Abul (2009) Conversion of Agricultural Land to Non-agricultural Uses in Bangladesh: Extent and determinants, Bangladesh Development Studies Vol. XXXIV, March 2011, No. 1 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors Abu Wali Raghib Hassan and Rajib Shaw Abstract The major livelihood strategy in rural Bangladesh is subsistence agriculture either through agriculture production activities, agriculture labor or both. On the other hand, agriculture plays a key role in economy due to its role in food security, employment and livelihood. For increasing food production and attaining food sufficiency, Bangladesh has achieved remarkable progress in agriculture since its independence in 1971. Bangladesh has been one of the prime beneficiaries of the global “Green Revolution” based on introduction of high yielding seeds, use of chemical fertilizers, and irrigation of land for enhanced agricultural productivity. It has been seen that food production has tripled from 10 million metric tons to 30 million metric tons over last three decades. Record amount of food produced in 1996–1997 which ultimately helped to attain self sufficiency. Despite tremendous accomplishments related to food security, this chapter tries to give the insights of livelihood security through the improvement of agriculture sector. Keywords Green revolution • Agricultural production • Food security • Livelihood security 5.1 Introduction Bangladesh is predominantly an agrarian economy. It is one of the most densely populated countries of the world with current population of more than 150 million people in 147,570 km2 area with a population density of more than 1,100 people per km2. By 2050, the population will have grown to more than 200 million, with almost half of the people living in cities and towns. A.W.R. Hassan (*) Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: hassan58_dae@yahoo.com R. Shaw Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan e-mail: shaw.rajib.5u@kyoto-u.ac.jp © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_5 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 65 A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw 66 The agricultural sector plays a vital role in the economy of Bangladesh in terms of its contribution to GDP, employment generation, livelihoods and poverty alleviation. Agriculture sector is comprised of four sub-sectors, e.g. crops, forestry, livestock and fisheries. Crop sub sector being the predominant one still remains the largest one in the economy although its share declines at around 50 % in agriculture sector and in national economy. More importantly, the crop sector provides staple food such as rice and wheat, and other daily necessities like pulses, oil, sugar, vegetables, spices, and fruits. Non-crop agriculture (livestock, fisheries and forestry) also has significant role in employment generation and contribution to GDP. Livestock sub-sector employs about 20 % of rural labour force although it accounts for only 2.6 % of total GDP. Fisheries sub-sector currently contributes about 4 % of total GDP and employs about 13 % of rural labor force. Forestry sector contributes about 1.7 % of the total GDP. Crop is the major sub-sector in the agriculture sector and accounted for 13.44 % of GDP. As about 47.5 % of the total labour force is engaged in agriculture (BBS 2012), the sector has an important role to play in supporting the rural population of Bangladesh. Agricultural growth has accelerated from less than 2.0 % per year during the first two decades after independence in 1971 to around 3.0 % during the last decade. Despite such a steady growth in agriculture as well as in food production, Bangladesh has been facing persistent challenges in achieving food security. This is mainly due to natural disasters and fluctuations in food prices from the influence of volatile international market for basic food items. A large number of the population live below the poverty line in rural Bangladesh due to an increase in the population, fragmentation and loss of land to other sectors (less then 1 % annually), and limited job opportunities. As such the vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change exacerbates poverty levels and undermines efforts in poverty reduction. 5.2 Food Security and Livelihood Status There exist no unique livelihood approaches to ensure food security. Sustainable livelihood approaches are needed to ensure food security. Many risks in livelihood approaches are location specific because of high geographical and natural vulnerability. For natural drawbacks such as- flood, drought, riverbank erosion, salinity problem and tidal inundation food security is not ensured in these areas all over the year. Ability of people to acquire food depends upon their exchange entitlement. Poor people achieve their exchange entitlement mainly from production (crops and livestock) and own-labour (wages labour and professions) based entitlements. Poor people could not ensure their food security when they loss these entitlements-loss of crops, livestock, jobs and fall in wages. Mainly in times of disaster or shocks, hardcore people loss their ability to acquire enough food. In times of shocks, ability of people to cope up can be increased by some direct and indirect financial or golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 67 non-financial aids from outside. These supports can improve the livelihood approaches so that hardcore state of livelihood of the people and food security will improve. Bangladesh has made a considerable achievement in food grain production and ensuring this food security. Despite many challenges including scarcity of land, climate change and high population growth, etc. attaining self sufficiency in rice production in recent past has been a major achievement for Bangladesh. Over the last three decades, cereal production has increased from about 10 million tons in 1970s to more than 30 million tons in 2008. Rice production tripled from 11 million tons in 1972 to 32 million tons in 2009. During this time population doubled from around 70–140 million. Per capita availability of rice increased from 140 kg in 1972 to 180 kg in 2008 (Alam and Islam 2013). Food security situation in Bangladesh has improved, especially on average per capita dietary energy supply has improved from 1,800 kcal in 1970s to 3,055 in 2009 (BBS 2010). Rice demand requirements could be estimated just on the basis of population growth with base year consumption of 439.6 g/person/day. In 2030 will be 30.60 million tons. It is expected that rice consumption will be 38.62 million tons for 2030 (and 32.56 million tons for 2021). Fisheries sector plays an important role in food consumption, nutrition, employment, export and the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. This sector has a contribution in national GDP (3.74 %), foreign remittances (3 %) and in the national animal protein consumption (58 %) (DoF 2010). It involves 1.4 million people in full time employment and 11 million peoples in part time employment (Haque et al. 1991). Livestock plays an important role in the national economy of the country, providing 15 % of total employment. About 12 % agricultural GDP comes from the livestock sector and 10 million people are directly involved to this livestock sector for their livelihood (Karim et al. 2010). Fish production increased from 1.89 million tons (2001–2002) to 2.89 million tons (2010–2011) over the last 10 years. Meat production from 0.78 million tons (2001–2002) to 2.95 million tons (2010–2011), milk production from 1.78 million tons (2001–2002) to 2.89 million tons (2010–2011) and egg production from 4,424 million (2001–2002) to 6,078 million (2010–2011) has also increased significantly over the last 10 years (DoF, DoL 2011). 5.2.1 Climate Change and Livelihood in Bangladesh Climate change is likely to have serious affect on agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries) due to variability of meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature), extreme events (floods, cyclones, and storm surges) and slow onset events (salinity intrusion, drought). Although agriculture now accounts for 20 % of GDP around 55–60 % of people (MoF 2013) depend on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihoods. The higher temperature and changing rainfall patterns, coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the coastal belt and droughts are likely to reduce crop yields and crop production, and expected to negatively impact food golam.rabbani@bcas.net 68 A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw security and livelihoods in the country. The Bangladeshi economy is not out of this realm and prediction. The scientific evidence for climate change impacts is now real for Bangladesh and scientifically, it is clear that changing climate patterns often adversely affected the soil, water, plants, health, animals, agriculture and the economy (Al-Amin et al. 2010; Al-Amin and Filho 2011; Al-Amin and Alam 2011; Lobell et al. 2011). The impacts of climate change on agriculture are global concern but for Bangladesh, where lives and livelihoods depend mainly on agriculture, are exposed to a great danger. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of its disadvantageous geographic location; flat and low-lying topography; dense population; high levels of poverty; reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors, particularly crop agriculture and fisheries; and inefficient institutional and poor infrastructure. Floods, cyclones, storm surges and droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe in the coming years. The effects of climate change on agriculture and other sectors are already evident. The agricultural sector is most likely to face significant yield reduction in future due to climate variability (Islam et al. 2011). Many of the anticipated adverse effects of climate change, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day length etc. Production of crops, particularly rice, is often constrained by different climatic hazards such as floods, droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclones and water surges etc., will aggravate the existing stresses that already impede development in Bangladesh. Bangladesh, annually and inter-annually experiences floods, cyclone, droughts, river bank erosion, salinity increase, tornados and other extreme natural events that affect the development of the country in lost lives, agriculture, fisheries, other assets and infrastructure (ADPC and BCAS 2008) resulting into food insecurity and poverty for millions of the affected people. The country has recently been facing increased natural disasters and climatic extreme events like prolonged and repeated floods in the northern and central parts along with river bank erosion; severe cyclones, sea level rise and salinity in the coastal districts; erratic rainfall; and drought in the northwest parts (BCAS 2008). The frequent devastating recent cyclones Sidr (15 November 2007), Aila (April 2009), Nargis (2010, though affected Bangladesh a little) and very recent Mahasen (19/20 May 2013) and series of prolonged flood of 2007 (two spells of flood) and 2009, beyond the devastating floods of 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2004 have severely damaged our development efforts, livelihoods (agricultural crops, fisheries, livestock), infrastructures etc. and killed thousands of people. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Bangladesh may experience 10–15 % more rainfall by 2030. This excessive rainfall will result in crop failure and production decline. This again will aggravate the present food security condition and will destroy many people’s livelihoods and thus will drag them below poverty line. Climate change contributes to increase frequency and severity of disasters with adverse impacts on humans, natural ecosystem and quality of human survival. The poor people suffer from malnutrition as they fail to procure food due to crop loss/damage, high price of essentials, lack of job opportunity etc. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 69 for recurrent natural disaster. Deforestation, over fishing, over grazing, salt built up, water borne diseases from irrigation, endangered wild life from loss of habitat, loss of genetic diversity, water pollution, air pollution and climate change are related to each other and having impacts on food production, lives and livelihoods on the people of Bangladesh. Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) also projected that South Asia will suffer most due to climate change as 22 % of world’s population (about 1.4 billion) including 40 % of world’s poor live of which more than half of the population is directly dependent on agriculture. It is also predicted that heat waves, heavy precipitation events will become more frequent and crop yields could decrease up to 30 % in Central and South Asia by the mid-twenty first centuries. All of these would contribute to increase the disaster events and Bangladesh would be the most vulnerable country to face climate induced disasters more frequently (Nasreen 2012). The frequent devastating recent cyclones Sidr (15 November 2007), Aila (April 2009), Nargis (2010, though affected Bangladesh a little) and very recent Mahasen (19–20 May 2013) and series of prolonged flood of 2007 (two spells of flood) and 2009, beyond the devastating floods of 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2004 have severely damaged our development efforts, livelihoods (agricultural crops, fisheries, livestock), infrastructures etc. and killed thousands of people. Climate change contributes to increase frequency and severity of disasters with adverse impacts on humans, natural ecosystem and quality of human survival. Deforestation, over fishing, over grazing, salt intrusion, water borne diseases, endangered wild life from loss of habitat, loss of genetic diversity, water pollution, air pollution and climate change are related to each other and having impacts on food production, lives and livelihoods on the people of Bangladesh. Climate change has added a new dimension to the relational analysis from gender perspective (Nasreen 2008). Climate change induced disasters and food insecurity affect both women and men but the burden of coping with disaster falls heavily on women’s shoulders in Bangladesh. Women suffer more than men from poverty, hunger, malnutrition, economic crises, environmental degradation, health related problems, insecurity and become victim of violence and political crises. The gendered division of labour becomes critical as gender roles are often reinforced and even intensified – due to the additional work and changes in environment brought on by a disaster. It has been argued that violation of women’s rights becomes more prominent during disaster. People have to depend on relief to cope with disaster, however, relief do not reach to those people who mostly need it. Women’s own adoptive techniques and initiatives become crucial for their family sustenance and ensuring food security (Nasreen 2008). The climate change is posing challenge to the livelihoods in different ways. Livelihoods are either disrupted by the extreme weather events like cyclone, heavy downpour, floods, erosion, storm surges, dense fogs, sea turbulence or by slow onset disasters like salinization, dryness/drought, ecosystem degradation etc. (OXFAM 2009). Women’s contribution to rural production activities include raising seedlings, gathering seeds, post-harvesting, cow fattening and milking, goat farming, backyard poultry rearing, pisciculture, agriculture, horticulture, food processing, cane and golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw 70 bamboo works, silk reeling, handloom weaving, garment making, fishnet making, coir production and handicrafts. It is evident that women’s own adoptive techniques and initiatives become crucial for their family sustenance and ensuring food security (Nasreen 2012). People of coastal belt, char and haor areas in Bangladesh are continuously fighting with impact of climate change. Climate change is forcing people to take diversified occupation to maintain their livelihood. Most of the people live in the countryside somehow depend on agriculture either livestock or fisheries. Rural people are likely more engage themselves in livestock farming for their livelihoods. It is always a matter to meet the protein demand in the country where its population reaches to more than 160 million. Bangladesh livestock is the second largest sector after fisheries to meet the national protein demand (BARC 2011). However, unfortunately the livestock is under threat due to the climatic patterns. Climate change has already impacted on the life and livelihoods of the people in the coastal areas and in the arid and semi-arid regions of Bangladesh. In particular, the effects of climate change on agriculture and other sectors are already evident. The agricultural sector is most likely to face significant yield reduction in future due to climate variability (Islam et al. 2011). Most importantly, crop agriculture is the most vulnerable to climate change among different sectors of the Bangladesh economy. The impacts of salinity intrusion usually consider only the most important sector namely shrimp cultivation. Natural populations of species which are affected by salinization will adapt their lifestyle e.g. by migration to a more ideal habitat. This influences the natural dispersion of species and where populations spawn, affecting fisheries and aquaculture if they are dependent on such natural processes. The impact of excessive salinization affects the bagda shrimp cultivation because it is dependent of natural fry collection, which is declining due to a degrading environment, and unsustainable fry catching (Hoq et al. 2001). Bangladesh is very rich in fresh water fisheries, which plays a vital role in nutrition, direct and indirect employment of about 12–13 million people, foreign exchange earnings and in other areas of the economy of Bangladesh. The fisheries of Bangladesh are highly sensitive to climate change and its impacts on captured fish production especially from floodplain fisheries might increase due to expansion of flooded area while culture fish production (pond fish) would decrease due to overtopping of flood water. Capture fisheries, especially overall floodplain fish production, may increase by 9 % under the A2 emission scenario and 7 % under B2 emission scenario in 2050. On the other hand, sea level rise could reduce habitat for fresh water fish in the delta. Therefore, production of freshwater fisheries may be hampered as the species of fresh water carp, catfish, perch etc. are highly susceptible to moderate level of salinity. The increasing temperature and humidity due to climate change will make livestock, especially, cattle, vulnerable. Lower intakes of dry matter due to temperature rise along with increasing humidity leads to body weight changes and other output changes such as reduction in milk production, which may decrease by 2.5 % annually by 2030. Milk output may further reduce by around 5 % in the 2050 the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 71 highest reduction occurs during March–May. In the coastal area, livestock are most vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges along with tidal flooding. About 20 % of suitable area will be reduced in 2050 for livestock due to sea level rise. By 2050 the reduction of rice production caused by climate variability will be as high as 12.8 % of the production that would have been achieved without climate variability. All rice, Aus, Aman and Boro are affected by climate change parameters. In Bangladesh climate variability will reduce long term rice production by an average 7.4 % each year during 2005–2050, primarily by undermining production of the Aman and Aus crop (World Bank 2009). Overall, it is apprehended that crop production might be reduced by 30 % by the end of the century, especially rice and wheat production might be reduced between 8 % and 32 % respectively by 2050 (FPMU 2013). In particular, winter crop production would be seriously hampered due to warmer and drier environment, while moisture stress might force farmers to reduce the area under boro cultivation. Thus climate change adaptation requires investments in agricultural research and extension with a particular emphasis on development and diffusion of stress resistant high yielding varieties. 5.3 Resources Constraints in the Face of Changing Climate In Bangladesh, ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities in last few decades but the target has always been interrupted by its resource constraints. Moreover, adverse climate change impact accelerated this constraints affecting on natural resources and human livelihood. Major national resources constraints, which are facing to climate change way forwarding to the food security. However, major constraints in terms of food security in Bangladesh attributed to cultivable land scarcity, irrigation water scarcity in summer, lack of technological knowledge, lack of climate adaptive crop variety, lack of institutions and professionals as well as social and cultural constraints is prominent (Anik et al. 2012). 5.3.1 Land Scarcity Land resource is the fundamental natural resource that provides habitat and sustenance for living organisms, as well as being a major focus of economic activities. Bangladesh is principally an agricultural country, characterized by rice paddy agriculture dominated landscapes. So, land resource is the major asset contributing wealth and livelihood in rural areas, although land-man ratio is very low in the world, estimated to be 0.06 hectares (ha) per person (FAO 2013). Landlessness has acute impact on national food production and ultimately threatens to go forward to food security. Degradation of cultivable land added new dimension because it loses potential production capability by decreasing soil quality as well as effective use. golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw 72 Table 5.1 Bangladesh agriculture at a glance Category Amount Total area 14.86 million ha Forest 2.59 million ha Cultivable land 8.52 million ha Current fellow 0.26 million ha Single cropped area 2.23 million ha Double cropped area 4.10 million ha Triple cropped area 1.48 million ha Net cropped area 7.83 million ha Total cropped area 14.94 million ha ton Total food crop production 37.26 million metric ton Source: Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) (2012) Climate change impacts result such as cyclones, floods, salinity intrusion, sea level rising enhance the threat in an alarming rate. Population of Bangladesh is already too big by any standard compared to its total land. Increasing sea level rise and river bank erosion are two most important reasons to lead the land shortage of the country. According to Ministry of Agriculture, area of total cultivable land is 8.44 million ha (Table 5.1) (Anik et al. 2012). 5.3.2 Irrigation Water Scarcity Water experts have sounded an alarm that within the next 25 years, half of the population of the world could have trouble in finding enough fresh water for drinking and irrigation (Khan 2009). Bangladesh is highly dependent on irrigation for agriculture especially for summer and winter. This scenario is much more delicate in North-Western and Southern part of the country. In the North-Western part of the country, which experience droughts annually, are mainly results of adverse climate change impact such as decreasing rainfall, huge temperature increase and other so on. The situation is very critical both water for domestic use and for agriculture, which comes mostly from ground water via deep tube well and shallow tube wells. Climate change impact resulting drought and decreasing ground water level has become a main concern to present agricultural activities in drought prone areas, in northern part. In Southern part, saline water intrusion is the main concern for agricultural production as well food security. Saline water intrusion in fresh agricultural land made the crisis more acute by decreasing soil fertility. The reason of this production disparity is due to massive climate change impact on Southern and North-Western region. Availability of both surface water and ground water is therefore very critical for the habitation of these areas (Anik et al. 2012). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 5.3.3 73 Lack of Technological Knowledge Technological adaptations can serve as a potent means of adapting to climate variability and change. Innovative technologies can be developed to adapt to climate change impact, and the transfer of appropriate technologies to the developing countries forms an important component of the UNFCCC (Mace 2006). Bangladesh like other developing countries needs modern technology combating with adverse climate change impact. Thus, technology transfer from the developed country to developing country have become more vulnerable, indispensable and the most discussing issue in any climatic conference. Bangladesh as a developing country has limitations to introduce modern technology as an adaptation response to climate change. Farmers in the rural area mostly practice traditional agricultural system although the scenario has been changing rapidly for the last two decades. However, present changing face of climate demands new agricultural pattern as well as advanced technologies to support agriculture, develop innovative varieties of high yielding crop which can adapt the changing impact of climate (Anik et al. 2012). 5.3.4 Inadequate Institutions and Professionals Institutional and professionals strength are the important factors for food security in the all regimes. Institutions comprises both rules and organisations which play significant role for delivering rural services, supporting implementing project and programme as well as strengthening marginal people rights and access to the asset. When institutions are weak, they can hinder effective implementation of policies, but reform often goes beyond single policies and requires an understanding of institutional structures as well as the way of change. In Bangladesh, institutional set up perspective on account of the developing country is not satisfactory here. On the other hand, Bangladesh has huge professional lacking as well as skilled professionals to lead the policies and project regarding fulfilling the national demand of agricultural production and food status. In Bangladesh, although a lot of government and non-government project regarding food security have been implementing by the means of rules and organisations, many cases have failed to achieve the goal. Another significant challenge is lack of interest among the young professionals in agricultural sector. Although present government has taken a lot of step to accelerate agricultural sector focusing production increase and ensure food security and improving livelihood but different barriers are there to interrupt the activities (Anik et al. 2012). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 74 5.4 A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw Coping Mechanism for Achieving Food Security and Livelihood Security in the Face of Climate Change Capacity building and strengthening coping strategies through awareness and knowledge raising on the climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities for the local communities, actors and stakeholders; partnership building and networking; mainstreaming climate change into local, national, sectoral and institutional development policies and strategies; and strengthening coping strategies and advancing adaptive livelihoods options of the communities in the changing environment and climatic conditions by sectors and ecosystems. The patterns of livelihood and other activities in case of Agriculture sectors vary according to nature of disasters induced by climate change. The affected people are taking several strategies to cope with extreme climatic variability. Livelihood in drought, flood and saline affected region mostly depends on agriculture for their subsistence. But, adverse impact of climate change collision like flood, sea level rising, drought, saline intrusion, cyclones etc. make the overall agriculture as well as livelihood in this area vulnerable. This section illustrates the existing agricultural adaptation responses as well as livelihood of different levels that are undertaken in the different vulnerable areas of Bangladesh. National Agricultural Research System (NARS) Institutes have given special thrust to develop different tolerant crop varieties suitable to cultivate in the region. Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) has already developed different Climate resilient Rice verities. • BRRI dhan 40, BRRI dhan 41 is saline tolerant rice varieties which grow during Aman season. It can tolerate salinity up to 8 dS/m during its reproductive stage. • BRRI dhan 47 is saline tolerant rice varieties which grow during Boro season. It can tolerate salinity up to 14 dS/m during seedling stage and 6 dS/m during other growth stage. • BRRI dhan 55 can tolerate 8–10 dS/m (Fig. 5.1) and BRRI dhan 61 can tolerate salinity 12–14 dS/m. • BRRI dhan 53 and BRRI dhan 54 is also saline tolerant short duration Aman season rice which can be harvested 12–41 days ahead of BR 41 variety. It can also tolerate 8–10 dS/m during its reproductive stage. • BRRI dhan 51 and BRRI dhan 52 are submergence tolerant varieties which can sustain 12–14 days under water. • Early harvest (short duration) rice varieties: BRRI dhan 33 (110–120 days), BRRI dhan 39 (120 days), BINA dhan -7 (110–120 days). These varieties can be harvested in 110–120 days instead of 140–150 days as required for traditional varieties of paddy. • BRRI dhan 24, BRRI dhan 42 and BRRI dhan 43 and BRRI dhan 57 (100–105 days) are medium heat tolerant Transplanting Aus rice varieties those can tolerate medium range drought. • BRRI dhan 44 can tolerate 50 cm high tidal non-saline water. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 75 Fig. 5.1 BRRI dhan 55 cultivation in saline prone areas • BR 22, BR 23 and BRRI dhan 46 are late sowing Aman rice varieties which can be sown after recede of flood water. • BRRI dhan 36 is a cold tolerant rice variety which can tolerate cold during its seedling stage. Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear agriculture (BINA) has also developed different Climate Resilience high yielding rice varieties. Binasail and Binadhan-8 have special characteristics of coping with flood rehabilitation situation and salt tolerance. Binasail is rice grown in Aman season and Binadhan-8 is for Boro season. Late variety of T. Aman cultivation in flood prone area (Binashail, Nazirshail). Binadhan 11 and Binadhan- 12. 5.4.1 Technology and Management Package Development for Other Crops • Bangladesh Agriculture research Institute and others research institutes has develop different Climate resilience non-rice crops. • Wheat BARI Gom 20, BARI Gom 21, BARI Gom 22, BARI Gom 23 and BARI Gom 24 are identified as heat tolerant varieties. BARI gom-25 for both Saline and Drought prone areas and BARI gom-26 for Drought prone areas. • Mustard BARI Sharisha-11 and BARI Sharisha-16 both are Saline and Drought tolerant variety. • BARI Sharisha-10 can successfully be grown in saline area (up to 8 dS/m). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 76 A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw • One potato variety named “Saikat” has been recommended for cultivation in saline belt (up to 8 dS/m) • Two sweet potato varieties named “BARI sweet potato-6 and BARI sweet potato 7” have yield range of 18–20 t/ha compared to 30–35 t/ha in the non-saline areas. Moreover, 5 germ plasam have been identified which have salt tolerance levels up to 8 dS/m. • BARI Amra 1 and BARI Amra 2 can give satisfactory yield of fruits up to 8 dS/m. • Heat and drought tolerant two tomato varieties named BARI hybrid tomato-3 and BARI hybrid tomato-4 have been released for cultivation in summer. One summer brinjal named BARI brinjal 8 and one summer bean named BARI seem-3 have been released. • BARI Chola 5 is a drought tolerant chola variety grown well in the Barind area. • BARI Barley 6 is a drought tolerant variety. • Raised-bed and zero till are promising technology for crop production for wheat, maize, pulses, sesame, etc. • Sugarcane drought tolerant variety Iswardi-20, flood tolerant Iswardi-34 and saline tolerant Iswardi-38, 39 and 40. Groundnut saline tolerant varieties are Binachinabadam-1, Binachinabadam-2 by the research Institutes. In the drought-prone areas, zero tillage, priming of seeds during sowing, mulching, relay cropping, dry seeding, Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) short duration varieties (Fig. 5.2), rain water harvest (mini pond) (Fig. 5.3), Water Saving Technologies: homestead gardening, etc. are the promising adaptation options. Farmers in drought prone area have adopted diversified crops like sugarcane, Fig. 5.2 Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 77 Fig. 5.3 Minipond for supplementary irrigation Fig. 5.4 Floating vegetable cultivation different type pulse and oil crops, vegetables and different fruit crops like mango, jujube etc. in their cropping field to cope with drought. In the flood prone areas, zero tillage (maize/potato, garlic), floating bed (vegetables/vegetable seedlings) (Fig. 5.4), raised bed cropping (ditch and dyke or sorjan system) (Fig. 5.5) and raised bed (vegetables) are identified as the potential adaptive practices. golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw 78 Fig. 5.5 Sorjan method cultivation The entire coastal area is suffering from salinity problem, where, except shrimp cultivation, agricultural crop cultivation is very limited since crops don’t grow in the land due to high level of salinity in the soil. Other then rice, adaptation options like zero tillage (potato/maize), floating bed (vegetables/vegetable seedlings), ditch-dyke system for crop and fish culture, homestead gardening, and utilization of gher have been used as the potential adaptation options in the coastal areas. In moderately saline area crops that are grown during rabi season include mungbean, lentil, lathyrus, chickpea, cowpea, mustard, linseed, watermelon, chili, wheat, sweet potato, sunflower, aroids, rabi vegetables and HYV and local boro. Recently brackish water shrimp followed by transplanted aman are being practiced. Creating water reservoir (ponds/canals) for irrigation by harvesting/preserving rainwater and normal flood water has been a common adaptation practices in the drought and coastal areas, mainly. Drip irrigation is also being used as adaptation measures, mostly in the northern parts of Bangladesh, where rivers and canals are very few, prone to drought and ground water level is a big problem. It is practiced in different other parts of Bangladesh as well at small scale. The drip irrigation technology is appropriate for small scale crop and vegetable cultivation. 5.4.2 Adaptation in Fisheries/Aquaculture and Livestock Sector Most of the coastal lands are not suitable for paddy farming due to high salinity. People of these areas are traditionally farming brackish water shrimp and coastal fishes in ghers since time immemorial and adapted to this sort of livelihood options (Alauddin and Rahman 2013). Fishing provides employment on a full-time or part golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 79 time basis to a large number of households in the coastal region. Over 167,000 fishermen and support staff are employed in the marine sector. In addition, about 185,000 people are engaged in part time shrimp fry collection activities (FAO 2007). Crab fattening has been a very profitable adaptive livelihoods measures in the coastal areas due to its availability and low cost but the fattened crab with the good market value. Raising hatchery to produce crab saplings is very important to facilitate this important adaptive livelihoods option for the poor coastal people. Planned construction of embankment with appropriate drainage system, height and width considering cyclone water level can only protect the aquaculture, livestock, agricultural crops and infrastructures as the effective adaptive measures in the coastal areas. Rearing sheep (bhera) is a very potential livelihoods adaption option in the coastal areas. Its growth is also very first. The adaptation measures for fisheries may include: protection and improvement of floodplain capture fisheries habitat; enhancement of culture fisheries by retaining water for longer period through pond deepening. Culture of shallow water and temperature tolerant fish species; cultivation of salt tolerant species in the coastal area; promotion of marine fisheries for consumption beside fresh water fisheries; encouragement of paddy-cum-fish polyculture; and encouragement of alternative livelihood during fish breeding. Tree plantation in the floodplains and drought prone areas around homestead; social forestry along the roadsides and in fallow lands and afforestation outside the embankment with community participation are the important mitigation and adaptation practices to protect environment, houses and other infrastructures (embankment, shelters and other livelihoods assets) from the disaster risks (cyclone, flood, storm surge, etc.). Bangladesh livestock is the second largest sector after fisheries to meet the national protein demand (BARC 2011). However, unfortunately the livestock is under threat due to the climatic patterns. In case of livestock the adaptation measures that can be undertaken are: increase of energy and protein intake for maintaining livestock health during hot summer; use of feeding management practices to minimize the effects of heat stress and humidity; improvement of housing facilities with adequate shade, cooling and ventilation to reduce the impact of heat stress; raising platform/plinth level of housing/killa for livestock in coastal and flood prone areas. Livestock rearing is an important source of income in all over the country. Though, the affected people cannot rear poultry and layer due to lack of dry space, but have taken livestock rearing as a main income earning source. For example, more than 68 % household are now rearing livestock to meet their basic needs. Besides, livestock rearing and sweet water fish cultivation are also found as important sources of income and improving livelihood. Planned construction of embankment with appropriate drainage system, height and width considering cyclone water level can only protect the aquaculture, livestock, agricultural crops and infrastructures as the effective adaptive measures in the coastal areas. Rearing sheep (bhera) is a very potential livelihoods adaption option in the coastal areas. Its growth is also very first. Besides agriculture and fisheries, there are people engaged in wood collecting (bawalis), honey collecting (mouals) and salt farming. Some of them are part time, some are seasonal and some are ecosystem specific. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 80 5.5 A.W.R. Hassan and R. Shaw Conclusion Climate induced changes both natural and man-made in agricultural productivity will likely affect the incomes earned by the poor as well as food prices faced by poor households along with the net effect on food security with a function of each household’s particular set of livelihood strategies. Different agricultural interventions for a food secure economy are also pointed out as adaptation measures in the face of climate change. Although food production in Bangladesh is increasing with its high population demand, the scenario may change with a view to the adverse impact of climate change collision like flood, sea level rising, drought, saline intrusion, cyclones etc. Government and different development agencies should concentrate their focus on the integrated way and to develop innovative location specific adaptation options/variety so that on growing national food demand can meet through increasing production and adaptability against the adverse impact of climate change. Development and Incorporation of applying effective livelihood adaptations measures with a long-term planning can helps livelihoods to build resilience against climate changes to reduce the vulnerability. 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J SUB 4(2):25–42 Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, (ADPC) and Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) (2008) Draft disaster management information link report, Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), Component 5b, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM). Government of Peoples Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) (2008) Community Risk Assessment (CRA) of disasters and Risk Reduction Action Plan (RRAP) in Madhukhali Upazila, Faridpur, CDMP/MoFDM. Government of Bangladesh Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) (2012) Available at http://www.moa.gov.bd/statistics/ bag.htm. Accessed 03 Jan 2015 BARC (2011) Livestock and poultry research and development plan of BLRI-2021. Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council Newsletter, vol 9, no 1. Jan–Mar, 2011 BBS (2010) Statistical yearbook of Bangladesh 2010. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka BBS (2012) Statistical yearbook of Bangladesh 2012. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka golam.rabbani@bcas.net 5 Livelihood Security: Implications from Agriculture Sectors 81 Department of Fisheries (DoF) (2010) Jatiyo Matsya Soptaho Sonkolon 2010, Ministry of fisheries and livestock. The Government of Peoples republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 102 pp DoF, DoL (2011) Department of Fisheries, Department of Livestock yearly report 2011 FAO (2007) Adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forestry and fisheries: perspective, framework and priorities. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2013) Bangladesh: arable land and land under permanent crops availability (ratio per person), FAOSTAT. http://faostat.fao.org/site/666/default.aspx. Accessed Nov 2013 Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) (2013) National food policy plan of action and country investment plan: monitoring report 2013. Food Policy Monitoring Unit, Ministry of Food, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka Haque MZ, Rahman MA, Shah MS (1991) Studies on the density of rohu (Labeorohita) fingerlings in polythene bags for transportation. Bangladesh J Fish 14(1–2):145–148 Hoq ME, Islam MN, Kamal M, Wahab MA (2001) Abundance and seasonal distribution of Penaeus mono-don postlarvae in the Sundarbans mangrove, Bangladesh. Hydrobiologia 457:97–104 Islam MB, Ali MY, Amin M, Zaman SM (2011) Climate variations: farming systems and livelihoods in the high barind tract and coastal areas of Bangladesh. In: Lal R, Sivakumar MVK, Rahman AHMM, Islam KR (eds) Climate change and food security in South Asia. Springer Science+Business Media B.V, New York Karim Z, Huque KS, Hussain MG, Ali Z, Hossain M (2010) Growth and development potential of livestock and fisheries in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum, Dhaka, pp 1–22. http://bids.org.bd/ifpri/growth-dev4.pdf Khan AM (2009) Water scarcity hampers development, The Daily Star [online] 4 July. Available at: http://thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=95284. Accessed 3 Aug 2012 Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620 Mace MJ (2006) Adaptation under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: the international legal framework. In: Adger WN, Paavola J, Huq S, Mace MJ (eds) Fairness in adaptation to climate change. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 53–76 MoF (2013) Bangladesh Economic Review, 2013. Ministry of Finance, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh Nasreen M (1995) Coping with floods: the experience of rural women in Bangladesh. Unpublished PhD dissertation, Messey University, New Zealand Nasreen M (2008) Impact of climate change on food security in Bangladesh: gender and disaster perspectives. Paper presented at the ‘International Symposium on Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia’, Dhaka, 25–30 August 2008 Nasreen M (2012) Women and girls vulnerable or resilient. Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies, University of Dhaka, Dhaka Nasreen M (2012) Women and girls vulnerable or resilient. Institute of disaster management and vulnerability studies. University of Dhaka, Dhaka OXFAM (2009) Disaster risk reduction, climate change and livelihood of the poor and marginalized people. A framework for Oxfam GB Bangladesh Society for Environment and Human Development (SEHD) 2012, Bangladesh: Land, Forest and Forest People [online]. Available at http://www.sehd.org/publications/adivasis-and-forests/29-bangladesh-land-forest-and-forestpeople. Accessed 3 Aug 2012 World Bank (2009) Implication of climate change risks on food security in Bangladesh. South Asia Region, 10 June 2009 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors Mostafa A.R. Hossain, Humayun Kabir, Ali Muhammad Omar Faruque, and Monjur Hossain Abstract Both aquaculture and fisheries have long been an integral part of life of the people of Bangladesh. The sector, second only to agriculture in the overall economy of Bangladesh, contribute nearly 4.5 % to the gross domestic product (GDP), 23 % of gross agriculture products and 2.46 % to the total export earnings. It accounts for about 60 % of animal protein intake in the diet of the people of Bangladesh with per capita fish consumption of 18.94 kg per annum. The people of Bangladesh largely depend on fish to meet their protein needs in both the rural and urban areas. In Bangladesh, to date about 20 finfish and a several crustacean species have been domesticated, their breeding and rearing protocols have been developed and now under nation-wide aquaculture. In addition to 1.32 million full time fishers, 14.7 million people have been involved in aquaculture in Bangladesh including fish farmers and prawn/shrimp farmers. The value chain from pond/farm to plate/fork and beyond the chain includes hundreds of stakeholders, whose livelihood fully depends on aquaculture. The major stakeholders include fish farmer, prawn/shrimp farmer, hatchery owner, nurserer, farm/hatchery technicians/workers, input (feed ingredient, fertilizer, hormone, chemical, instrument etc.) importers/suppliers, feed mill owners, homestead feed producer, fisher, fish processor, fish transporter, wholesaler, exporter, retailer, consumer, technology provider (government and non-government) and many more. Aquaculture has increasingly been playing a major role in total fish production (3.26 million tons) of the country and presently more than half of the total production (52.92 %) comes from aquaculture (1.73 million tons). The sector provides living and livelihood for more than 11 % people of the country. If the available resource are used sustainably with proper technological M.A.R. Hossain (*) Department of Fish Biology & Genetics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh e-mail: marhossain@bau.edu.bd H. Kabir • A.M.O. Faruque Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Matshya Bhaban, Ramna, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh M. Hossain PMTC (Bangladesh) Ltd., Dhaka, Bangladesh © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_6 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 83 84 M.A.R. Hossain et al. assistance, fish produced from aquaculture would efficiently meet the protein demand of growing population of the country, and will ensure, food and nutritional security, employment generation and foreign exchange earning leading to shaping a Bangladesh free of hunger, malnutrition and poverty. Keywords Aquaculture • Bangladesh • Man-made and climate change impacts • Implications • Livelihood • Adaptation • Mitigation measures 6.1 Introduction In the globe, fish provides the best protein food rich in essential macro- and micro-nutrient, vitamins and minerals, Fish farming and fishing create working opportunity and income to millions of poor, and trade in fishery products play important role in poverty alleviation and economic growth of nations. The fisheries sector, in Bangladesh, plays a particularly crucial role among poor as a main or additional source of employment, livelihood and income. The sector is the second largest part-time and fulltime employer in rural areas. It provides a crucial source of income and food to Bangladesh, and is second only to agriculture in the overall economy of the country. Fish is a natural complement to rice in the national diet, giving rise to the adage “Machhe-Bhate Bangali”, literally meaning – ‘fish and rice make a Bangladeshi’. Bangladesh produced 3.26 million tons of fish during 2011–2012 from inland and marine water bodies and aquaculture contributed more than 50 % of the total production (Table 6.1). Fisheries accounts for 4.5 % of Bangladesh GDP, 23 % of agriculture sector and 2.46 % of total export earnings. It also contributes 60 % of the animal protein intake in Bangladesh, and even higher in populations living in the coast. The overseas fish trade is an important source of foreign currency earnings for the country and provides benefits at both the macro and microeconomic levels. Fish is the third largest contributor to Bangladesh’s export earnings and is growing annually by 5–8 %. Revenue from exports of non-fish agricultural goods is gradually being outpaced by fish products, to the extent that fish has become the most important primary commodity that Bangladesh exports (Dey et al. 2008). Bangladeshi people largely depend on fish to meet their protein needs. Until 1970s, there was an abundance of fish in the natural waters – the floodplain, rivers, rivulets, beels, lakes, ditches and canals of the country to well-satisfy the demand of fish. Presently, however, capture fish production has declined to about 50 %, with a negative trend of 1.24 % per year. Despite the constant depletion of the natural water bodies for years, Bangladesh, globally, still holds one of the most diverse inland fisheries. However, the availability of many fish species has been drastically declined, and many are either critically endangered or regionally extinct. Both breeding and feeding migrations of the river and floodplain resident fishes of the country have been drastically cut off due to flood protection embankment with serious consequence on recruitment and production tonnage. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 85 Table 6.1 Fish production of Bangladesh from different aquatic resources in 2011–2012 Water resources Capture – open waters River and estuarine Sundarbans Beel Kaptai lake Floodplain Culture – closed waters Ponds & ditch Seasonally cultured waters Baor (Ox-bow lake) Shrimp/prawn farm Marine fisheries Trawler Aritasanal fisheries Country total Source: DoF (2013) 6.1.1 Water area (ha) 3,925,290 853,863 177,700 114,161 68,800 2,710,766 774,055 371,309 122,026 5,488 275,232 – – – Production (MT) 957,095 145,613 21,610 85,208 8,537 696,127 1,726,067 1,342,282 1,822,930 5,186 196,306 578,620 73,386 5,052,343 3,261,782 Production (kg/ha) % Total – 29.34 171 122 746 131 257 – 52.92 3,615 1,494 945 713 – 17.74 – – 100 Background of Aquaculture in Bangladesh Aquaculture, in simple sense, is the farming of fish and other aquatic organisms, with ‘farming’ implying – some form of intervention to increase productions, and some form of private rights of the stock under intervention (Beveridge and Little 2002). Although livelihood opportunities associated with aquaculture contribute to the food security of large numbers of poor women and men, the direct effects of consuming fisheries products are of even greater significance. Aquaculture or fish farming has been the most rapidly growing agro-food sector in the globe over the last four decades 1970 and 2010. Production of farmed finfish and shellfish has been growing at a rate of 8.1 % per annum over this period. The aquaculture industry employs 23.4 million full-time workers globally, with Asia accounting for 92 % of jobs. Aquaculture now provides around half the fish for direct human consumption and is set to grow further. The origin and developmental background of aquaculture practices in Bangladesh are not well documented. Historically, country’s natural water bodies were stocked during the monsoon season through recruitment from natural spawning. Fish farming had been an age-old practice dating back a few centuries to when the country was ruled by Hindu kings. Many of the kings used to construct ponds and tanks for drinking, bathing and sometimes for small-scale irrigation, these ponds and tanks were also used for rearing fish although more from a recreation point of view than for commercial or nutritional purpose. Dr. Nazir Ahmed (1947–1960), the then Director of East Pakistan Department of Fisheries laid the formal foundation for fish culture in ponds and lakes in Bangladesh. He devotedly worked on the development golam.rabbani@bcas.net 86 M.A.R. Hossain et al. of carp farming in ponds and beels and during the time between late sixties and early seventies considerable advancement were made in this area, eg., success in induced breeding of indigenous carp with pituitary gland extracts. Over the last few decades, however, fish habitats in Bangladesh have been degraded drastically by the development of flood control measures which resulted in a decline in natural fish production. As a result GOs, NGOs and private entrepreneurs have come forward to develop improved fish farming techniques especially in ponds and floodplains (FAO 2005). There are two types of aquaculture practices are going on in Bangladesh – freshwater and coastal aquaculture. There is no marine aquaculture currently practiced in the country and no marine/coastal fin finfishes are farmed. Freshwater aquaculture comprises mainly pond farming of carps – (indigenous and exotic), Mekong pangasid catfish, tilapia, Mekong climbing perch and a number of other domesticated fish though in lesser scale. Coastal aquaculture is comprised mainly of shrimp and prawn farming in ghers (coastal pond or enclosures). In Bangladesh, aquaculture production systems are mainly extensive and improved extensive, with some semi-intensive and in very few cases intensive systems. The present unit area aquaculture productions (MT/ha) are 3.6, 1.5, 0.95 and 0.71 for pond, seasonal waterbody, baor (oxbow lake) and shrimp gher, respectively. Inland pond culture represents the mainstay of aquaculture in Bangladesh, accounting more than 80 % total recorded aquaculture production and presently dominated by carps (indigenous and exotic), Mekong pangas and tilapia. 6.1.2 Domestication of Fish for Aquaculture Domestication of wild fishes in most cases benefits both the fish farmer and the environment (Hossain 2010). Investments in domestication have to pay off; therefore, researches should take into account the biodiversity and production scenario and overall socioeconomic and environmental outcome at a broader scale. In Bangladesh, to date about 20 fish species have been domesticated and their breeding and rearing protocols have been developed. Around 50 % of the domesticated fishes are cypriniforms and now under nation-wide aquaculture (Table 6.2). Though there is high possibility of working with reduced gene pool, it is optimistically believed that the biodiversity of the domesticated fish are well-preserved. 6.1.3 Introduction of Exotic Fish in the Name of Aquaculture All over the world the exotic species have been recognized as an agent of the loss of indigenous biodiversity. Alteration of species and ecosystem caused by exotic invasive animals and plants influence the functioning and overall health of the affected ecosystems (Ameen 1999). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 87 Table 6.2 The domesticated indigenous fishes of Bangladesh Order Cypriniformes Fish Catla catla Labeo rohita Labeo gonius Labeo bata Labeo calbasu Cirrhinus mrigala Cirrhinus reba Tor putitora Puntius sarana Lepidocephalichthys guntea Botia dario Osteoglossiformes Chitala chitala Siluriformes Ompok bimaculatus Ompok pabda Mystus vittatus Mystus gulio Clarias batrachus Heteropneustes fossilis Synbranchiformes Mastacembelus armatus Macrognathus aculeatus Perciformes Anabas testudineus Colisa fasciata Source: Hossain and Wahab (2009) Culture status Country-wide commercial Country-wide commercial Country-wide commercial Country-wide commercial Small scale, sporadic Country-wide commercial Small scale, sporadic Breeding protocol developed Small scale, sporadic Breeding protocol developed Breeding protocol developed Small scale, sporadic Small scale, sporadic Small scale, sporadic Small scale, sporadic Breeding protocol developed Small scale, sporadic Small scale, sporadic Breeding protocol developed Breeding protocol developed Breeding protocol developed Breeding protocol developed As a country of rivers and wetlands, Bangladesh is very rich in fish diversity. Even then, over the last six decades a total of 24 fishes have been introduced (Table 6.3). The invasive species rapidly spread over the wetlands as biological explosives during the rainy seasons. Most of the introduced species were meant only for captive cultivation in closed pond systems but nobody succeeded to maintain the fish in captivity. During monsoon and/or flood the escapees easily found their ways to the rivers and floodplains throughout the country. This posed one of the major threats to the biodiversity of many indigenous fishes in this country. Several introduced species are highly carnivorous and predatory and eat almost everything including the small indigenous species of fish (SIS – which grow to a maximum length of 5–25 cm) (Felts et al. 1996). Several exotic species also compete with the SIS and gradually occupy their niches. The ecological, economic and biodiversity consequences of the introductions of exotic fish species have never been taken into consideration. It is very unfortunate that the long-term, and even short-term adverse effects were not considered while introducing the invasive species in Bangladesh. The excessive fecundity and growth rate of these species created golam.rabbani@bcas.net 88 M.A.R. Hossain et al. Table 6.3 Exotic fishes introduced into the freshwaters of Bangladesh Common name Siamese gourami Goldfish Tilapia Guppy Common carp Mirror carp Scale carp Leather carp Grass carp Silver carp Nilotica Thai sarpunti Bighead carp Black carp African magur GIFT (genetically improved farmed tilapia) Genetically improved scale carp Thai pangas Giant pangas Mosquito fish Sucker mouth catfish Scientific name Trichogaster pectoralis Carassius auratus Oreochromis mossambicus Poecilia reticulata Cyprinus carpio Cyprinus carpio var specularis Cyprinus carpio var communis Cyprinus carpio var nudus Ctenopharyngodon idella Hypophthalmichthys molitrix Oreochromis niloticus Barbonymus gonionotus Hypophthalmichthys nobilis Mylopharyngodon piceus Clarias gariepinus Oreochromis niloticus Source Singapore Pakistan Thailand Thailand India, Nepal India, Nepal India, Nepal India, Nepal Hong Kong Hong Kong Thailand Thailand Nepal China Thailand Philippines Year of introduction 1952 1953 1954 1957 1960 1979 1965 – 1966 1969 1974 1977 1981 1983 1990 1994 Cyprinus carpio var communis Vietnam 1995 Pangasius hypophthalmus Pangasius gigus Gambusia affinis Hypostomus plecostomus Thailand Thailand India Hong Kong, Singapore Singapore Singapore 1990 – – – Red piranha Pygocentrus nattereri Pirapatinga Piaractus brachypomus Source: Modified from Rahman (2005) 2003 2003 pressure on the carrying capacity of the habitat, and the ecosystem balance itself by reducing the indigenous species diversity and population. Some of the negative impacts of exotic species on indigenous fishes are given in Table 6.4. 6.2 Present Status of Aquaculture in Bangladesh An estimated 1.32 million people of Bangladesh are fishers and earn their livelihood from fishing. A further 14.7 million people indirectly earn their livelihood from fisheries and aquaculture and related activities, and employed in the backward and forward linkages of the value chain such as the downstream activities of fish trading, fish seed production, collection of shrimp and prawn seed, fish handling, processing and marketing, net making, input supply and processing. The number of fish golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 89 Table 6.4 The negative impacts of exotic fishes on the indigenous fishes Exotic fish Tilapia Impact Their prolific breeding surpasses the carrying capacity of the waterbody leading to stunting of tilapia and a number of SIS – mola (Amblypharyngodon mola), dhela (Osteobrama cotio), anju (Danio rerio), darkina (Esomus danricus), chela (Salmostoma spp.), punti (Puntius spp.), chapila (Gudusia chapra), tengra (Mystus vittatus), bujuri (Mystus tengara), chanda (Ambassis spp.), guchi (Macrognathus pancalus) etc. Common carp Destroy pond embankments, make water turbid by stirring up mud. Reduce the water transparency and dissolved O2 in water. Destroy habitat of SIS living closed to the pond dyke and loaches in the bottom Grass carp High feeding competition with many herbivorous small and large indigenous fishes Silver carp Strong feeding and habitat competition with– catla in both captive condition and in the wild Thai sarpunti Compete with local sarpunti for foods and space African magur Predation and voracity of this catfish is legendary, predate on almost all small and medium fishes Thai pangas Natural diet is finfish, crustacean and insects, periphyton and benthos. This predatory fish is the major cause of disappearance of SIS from the pond system Mosquito fish They live in the littoral zone of the waterbody and compete with small fishes for food and habitat Suckermouth One of the dangerous catfish, now found in floodplain allover country, catfish feeds on small crustaceans and fishes like loaches and freshwater eel Red piranha One of the most dangerous and aggressive species of piranha, feeds on insects, worms and small and large fish. The cultured fish in the pond system and escapees in the wild actively predate on the indigenous fishes particularly SIS Pirapatinga Natural diet is terrestrial plants, fruits, insects and crustaceans, however, in captivity where natural food is scarce pirapatinga compete with SIS. The fish has strong, human like teeth to crush food items Source: Hossain (2014) farmers and shrimp/prawn farmers presently are 13.86 millions and 0.83 millions, respectively. Among the people involved in the sector 10 % are women. During 1960s, the inland capture fisheries contributed about 90 % of the country’s total fish production. Production from inland capture fisheries has declined significantly over the years and in 2010–2011 it accounted only about 42 % (Fig. 6.1a). During 1960s, production from inland capture fisheries was almost 20 times higher compared to the then aquaculture production of the country (Fig. 6.1b). However, aquaculture production both in fresh water and brackish water has significantly increased during the last two and a half decades with development of technology. Due to the rapid increase of aquaculture production and sharp decrease of capture fishery production, in 2010–2011, the aquaculture contributed (about 53 %) more than inland capture fisheries in total fish production of the country (DoF 2013). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 90 M.A.R. Hossain et al. % contribution of inland capture in total production a 100 80 60 40 20 0 60-61 65-66 70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 b inland capture : Aquaculture ratio 20 16 12 8 4 0 60-61 65-66 70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 Fig. 6.1 Trend of fish production in Bangladesh 1960–2011. (a) Contribution of inland capture (%) in total fish production, and (b) Inland capture to aquaculture ratios (Source: Ali et al. 2009; DoF 2013) 6.2.1 Aquaculture Growth Over the last three decades aquaculture in Bangladesh has expanded rapidly. Aquaculture has increasingly been playing a major role in total fish production (3.26 million tons) of the country and presently more than half of the total fish production (52.92 %) comes from aquaculture (1.73 million tons). Although farming of fish in this country, yet a low intensity semi-subsistence activity, rapid commercialization, gradual intensification and specialization have taken place over the last decade, leading to unprecedented expansion in production of farmed fish golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 91 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors (Belton and Azad 2012). Horizontal expansion of aquaculture has been taking place on riverine floodplains which have been enclosed to facilitate the intensification of production (Sultana 2012). Over the last couple of years, significant numbers of crop farmers have been converting their land to fish ponds, mainly in Mymensingh and Rajshahi, what many think a natural phenomenon related to ever decreasing benefit-cost ratio farmers are receiving from paddy farming. Aquaculture production of 33,000 MT in 1960, increased to massive 1.73 million MT in 2012. Average annual growth (%) of aquaculture is 10.81 ± 1.79 since 1990 to date. The annual growth rate was only negative during 2003–2004 and so far highest in 1995–1996 and 2008–2009 (Fig. 6.2). Production of aquacultured shrimp (Bagda, Penaeus monodon) and prawn (Galda, Macrobrachium rosenbergii) also increased significantly from a mere 14,773 MT to 137,175 MT in 2011 (Fig. 6.3). The % contribution of farmed shrimp a Aquaculture production ('000 MT) 1600 1200 800 400 0 60-61 65-66 70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 b Annual growtrh rate (%) 30 28.17 27.21 20.02 18.16 20 19.56 18.31 10.78 10 7.52 10.38 6.32 11.12 8.45 0 4.80 8.94 6.74 6.03 3.20 8.05 5.69 1.13 -3.57 -10 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Fig. 6.2 Aquaculture growth in Bangladesh. (a) The real value of aquaculture production (‘000 MT) during 1960–2011. (b) Annual growth rate (%) of aquaculture during 1991–2011 (Source: DoF 2013) golam.rabbani@bcas.net Culture shrimp-prawn production (MT) 92 M.A.R. Hossain et al. 160000 120000 80000 40000 0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Fig. 6.3 Production of farmed shrimp and prawn in Bangladesh during 1986–2011 Table 6.5 Mode of shrimp culture in Bangladesh with production per unit area Area under culture (ha) 190,080 Species Bagda Mode of culture Traditional (extensive) Bagda Improved extensive 25,380 Galda Integrated With rice, fish, vegetables Nearly 60,000 Management PL stocking and water exchange (A number of marine fish in the gher) Dyke elevation; healthy & virus free PL stocking; Supplemental feeding Little or no management except PL stocking, occasional feeding Production kg/ha 300 600–700 450–550 and prawn in total production is more than 60 % and in recent years the wild catch has been gradually decreasing. The unit area production of farmed shrimp (300–700 kg/ha), however, is very low compared to fish produced in culture ponds. Mostly extensive form of culture is practiced to produce shrimp in gher and very few farmers practice even improved extensive method (Table 6.5). 6.3 Aquaculture Livelihood As the fish production from aquaculture has increased remarkably over the last few years, many poor and ultra poor of rural areas of Bangladesh received the opportunity of fulltime and parttime employment to earn extra income. About 11 % of the people of the country now directly or indirectly depend on the fish sector for their livelihood. Among the manpower associated with the fish sector, 10 % are women golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 93 (1 % of total population). Moreover, 80 % workers working for fish processing plants and fish drying centers are women (DoF 2013; Hossain et al. 2013). Only during last 4 years, about 0.6 millions poor people found the work opportunity in the fish sector (DoF 2013). In Bangladesh, presently a total 14.7 million people have been involved in aquaculture in Bangladesh including fish farmers and prawn/ shrimp farmers. The value chain from pond/farm to plate/fork and beyond the chain includes hundreds of stakeholders, whose livelihood fully depends on aquaculture. The major stakeholders include fish farmer, prawn/shrimp farmer, hatchery owner, nurserer, farm/hatchery technicians/workers, input (feed ingredient, fertilizer, hormone, chemical, instrument etc.) importers/suppliers, feed mill owners, homestead feed producer, fisher, fish processor, fish transporter, wholesaler, exporter, retailer, consumer, technology provider (government and non-government) and many more. 6.4 Climate Change Impacts on Overall Setting Bangladesh has been experiencing serious environmental degradation in recent years. In many respects, the situation has reached crisis proportions. Several factors make Bangladesh particularly vulnerable to environmental damage. There are many dimensions of this environmental degradation. Ground water contamination, surface water pollution, encroachment of rivers and water bodies, improper disposal of industrial, medical and household waste, deforestation and loss of aquatic habitat and bio-diversity are just a few examples. The fragile ecology, delicate flora and fauna, alarming density of increasing population, reliance on foreign aid and poverty of the masses are few such factors. Considerable damage has already been done. With loss of wetlands and forests, Bangladesh is gradually losing its flora and fauna. Many aquatic and terrestrial species are becoming rare; some have already become extinct. Bangladesh is most at risk from climate change. The country will face the greatest danger from global warming in the next three decades. Poverty and large low-lying coastal regions prone to annual floods and cyclones were among factors making Bangladesh the number 1 exposed country to climate change. Other most exposed countries in the continent are India, Nepal, Philippines, Afghanistan and Myanmar. 6.4.1 Climate Change and Fish Sector Climate change impacts gradually cover a wide range of livelihoods in a number of aquatic settings (Fig. 6.4). Drought coupled with siltation and lowering water level are reducing over wintering habitat for indigenous fish species resulting into less recruitment into grazing field to grow inland fisheries. Reduced water flow in major golam.rabbani@bcas.net 94 M.A.R. Hossain et al. Physical Temperature Ecological Species distributions Fisheries Productivity pH Timing of reproduction, Distribution Salinity migration, abundance Species availability Dissolved Oxygen Physiology - growth Timing Nutrients Recruitment Days at sea Currents Behaviour Accidents, death Sea level Food chain Loss of homes, common Turbulence & mixing Food and feeding habit properties - infrastructure Wind speed & direction Sex ratios Damage to productive Cyclone - frequency & Upwelling timing & latitude assets – stock, boat, nets intensity Habitat loss Livelihood diversification Evaporation Disease Ability to plan seasonal / Precipitation alternative livelihood Runoff activities Food and Nutritional security Fig. 6.4 Climate-induced changes in aquaculture and fisheries systems rivers has resulted in a severe depletion of riverine fisheries. Due to decrease in groundwater and surface water, extreme pressure has been exerted on floodplains to convert them to crop filed, brick klin and other infrastructures, resulting in an alarming decline in fish diversity and production. Indeed, there may be nowhere in world where effects of climate change and other activities on fish sector are more apparent than in Bangladesh. Bangladesh in 2009 witnessed the least rainfall in past one and half decade (since 1994) with scientists attributing the unpredictable pattern to global climatic change. During June–September, 2009, 47,447 mm rainfall was recorded compared to 56,163 mm in the same period of 2008, 66,520 mm in 2007 and 60,551 mm in 2008. On the other hand, excessive rainfall in several parts of country affected standing aman rice crops while less rainfall affected the major crop in some other areas. Average temperature of the country has been increasing slowly (Fig. 6.5). More and more intense and long droughts have been observed since 1970s in almost all areas especially in northern Bangladesh. Water with poor quality and less availability for aquaculture and reduced production of fish are very common. Loss of both wild and farmed fish stocks has long been going on. There are conflicts among different water users and irrigation to crop fields always gets the priority. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 95 Fig. 6.5 Time series of all-Bangladesh annual mean temperatures during 1948–2007 (CCC 2009) 6.5 Direct and Indirect Impacts on Aquaculture Impacts of climate change on aquaculture could occur directly and/or indirectly and almost all components of climate change impact on aquaculture. Aquaculture practice, like other farming practices, are defined spatially, temporally and based on size and have a fair degree of maneuverability. Furthermore, fish farming concentrates in certain climatic regions of the world and continents with a well defined concentration of the sectoral practices. The major elements of climate change that have potential impact on aquaculture production are regular events like temperature and sea level rise, change in monsoonal rain patterns and water scarcity and extreme events like, tornados. Different elements of climate change are likely to be manifested to varying degrees in different climatic zones. Global warming and resulting increase in water temperature could impact very negatively on aquaculture in temperate zones because such increases could exceed the optimal temperature range of organisms currently under farming. Diseases affecting aquaculture both in incidence and impact might increase in freshwater and coastal farming systems. In Bangladesh, more intense and longer droughts have been observed since 1970s in almost all areas particularly northwest region of the country – resulting gradually poorer water quality and lower availability for aquaculture and reduced production of freshwater fish. Loss of cultured stocks and conflicts among different water users are increasing. Damage in aquaculture production and increased cost of production are direct result of water shortage. Major impacts of cyclones and tornados are loss of human – fish farmers and others, severe loss of aquaculture stocks, golam.rabbani@bcas.net 96 M.A.R. Hossain et al. livelihood assets and biodiversity, communication disruption affect fish/input trade used in aquaculture, damage and destruction of infrastructure, aquaculture facilities, crafts and gears, and impacts on wild fish recruitment and environmental degradation results narrower gene pool used by for fish hatcheries. Salinity intrusion reduces growth of farmed freshwater and coastal water fish and shellfishes, deteriorates water quality and causes considerable loss of plants and vegetables on farm site. Impacts of climate change on different aspects of aquaculture in Bangladesh are summarized below. 6.5.1 Effect on Reproduction and Growth The erratic rain, irregular rainfall as well as temperature change are affecting the readiness of fishes for breeding. The abrupt changes in temperature and irregular rainfall are making change in the physiology of maturation and sex ratios of fish species, altered timing of spawning, migration and spawning seasons of farmed indigenous and exotic carps, tilapia and other aquacultured species. 6.5.2 Effects on Species Composition, Abundance and Distribution Increased salinity and change in water quality instigates in change in species composition, abundance and distribution the affected areas, particularly in coastal areas. The change in fish composition in turn affects the fisheries in many coastal areas. Due to prolonged drought, fish movement and migratory route within river, from river to beel and floodplain and within floodplain have been blocked which caused reduction of fish production in open water. Recruitment of new fishes is going down every year. Some of the most impacted/damaged fish population are mola (Amblypharyngodon mola), tengra (Mystus vittatus), bujuri (Mystus tengara), batashi (Pseudeutropius atherinoides), shing (Heteropneustes fossilis), pabda (Ompok spp.), gulsha (Mystus cavasius), air (Sperata aor), bheda (Nandus nandus), rita (Rita rita), banshpata (Ailia spp.), ghagla (Hemibagrus menoda), kawajangi (Gagata spp.), raek (Cirrhinus reba), sarpunti (Puntius sarana), jat punti (Puntius sophore), bou (Botia spp.), magur (Clarias batrachus), chang (Channa gachua), taki (Channa punctatus), shol (Channa striatus), gozar (Channa marulius), baim (Mastacembelus armatus), guchi (Macrognathus pancalus), tara baim (Macrognathus aculeatus) etc. Extinct or near extinct are kawajangi (Gagata spp.), elong (Megarasbora elonga), rita (Rita rita), pabda (Ompok spp.), phasa (Setipinna spp.), shilong (Silonia silondia), bacha (Eutropiichthys vacha) and gaura (Clupisoma garua). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 6.5.3 97 Effects on Fish Propagation and Production Areas for fish breeding, nursery and grazing are reducing at an alarming rate in rivers and floodplains. Reduced number of naturally available broodfish has long been observed due to reduced habitat. Gradual changing of fish breeding period, reduction in breeding ground and declining spawning rate (lack of natural stimulation) is now well-evident. High mortality of spawn in openwaters and in captivity has been reported from most parts of the country due to high fluctuation of daynight temperature. Low and delayed rainfall is causing decline in water flow and change or disappearance of fish migratory route and shortening of fish growing period both in aquaculture and in the wild. Brood quality is under risks in hatcheries and open waters. Due to lack of water, hatchery owners are rearing brood stock in a single or in a couple of ponds and risking the brood quality. Fish seed production cost is getting higher due to water scarcity, temperature fluctuation and insufficient supply of electricity in hatcheries. Aquacultured fishes breed late in the hatcheries due to water scarcity and higher and lower temperature. 6.5.4 Effects on Fish Biology in the Hatchery and Growout Level Due to late monsoon and prolonged drought phases during breeding season, the fish hatcheries are struggling. The eggs and spawn of bighead and silver carp and bata start to die at high temperature. Tilapia stop spawning at lower temperate than 24 °C and at higher temperature than 34 °C. Most of the time all the eggs/spawns in the bottle jars die rapidly due to higher and lower temperature and rapid fluctuation of temperature. As the rain water is not enough in many parts of the country and very uncertain, and mostly absent in the time of need, huge quantity of water is needed in the fish hatcheries are lifted by deep tube well. That increase the production cost of fish seed significantly. In a normal condition with sufficient rain water from the early monsoon, it is possible to produce 1 kg spawn from 2 to 3 fish, but now-a-days, about 10 broodfish are needed to produce 1 kg spawn. Fish seed produced in govt. hatcheries have high demand, but over the last few years, it has been becoming increasingly impossible to fulfill the demand due to water scarcity and temperature fluctuation. Management cost has increased more or less 20 % due to climate change, followed by water and feeding cost (30 and 50 %). On the other hand, spawn mortality has increased to 20 %. Sometimes fish farmer collect expensive and good quality natural eggs and spawns of carps at the early season. As there is very little and sporadic rain at April-May, very few eggs and spawns can be collected from natural waterbodies, accordingly these are very expensive and precious. However, due to hot temperature and lack of water, nursing of these valuable spawns is very difficult. Even some of the farmers/hatchery owners are able to nurse them, selling the fry is difficult as the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 98 M.A.R. Hossain et al. fish farmers cannot stock them because there is no water in their ponds. Therefore, even after collecting and nursing the expensive and good quality spawns, due to lack of customers, the hatchery owners/fish farmers can not make any profit rather encounter huge loses. Presently in the fish hatcheries, the following impacts are noticeable and of great concern for the owners: • • • • • • • • • • • • Fish do not ovulate in time or at all Lower growth rate of brood Fewer eggs Eggs not fertilized Deformity of fry Lower survival rate Lower hatching rate Loss of yield Lower survival rate Less water availability Mass mortality Increased production cost 6.5.5 Effects on Overall Fish Growth and Fish Health It is generally accepted that decreased body size of fish is a universal response to increasing temperatures. Climate change might be responsible for stunting fish growth in the ocean. Warmer ocean temperatures and less oxygenated water could significantly reduce fish growth and make the fish undersized. The body sizes of several marine species have decreased up to 29 % over a period of four decades (Baudron et al. 2014). Climate change also impacts fish growth in culture ponds. Extreme high temperature in summer and long duration cold wave in winter are affecting fish growth in Barind tract and north-eastern haor basin of Bangladesh. As most of the aquatic animals including fish are poikliothermic, their physiology is directly affected by the ambient temperature. In general, the fish immune response is in the perfect condition in species’ optimum temperature. The replication rate of parasites and pathogens is also affected by temperature. At higher temperatures, the generation time of most of the bacterial and fungal pathogen and other macro and micro-parasites with direct lifecycles is shorter, whilst each virus has its own optimal temperature range for replication. As a result there are optimal temperature ranges for infection and disease; increasing or decreasing water temperatures may shift the balance in favour of either the host or pathogen, changing the frequency and distribution of disease. A clear conclusion is that increases in water temperature and other changes in environmental water quality parameters, caused by climate change, are likely to adversely affect the fish health. Change in temperature has long been affecting farmed fish in Bangladesh by increasing risk of disease outbreak. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 99 In dry lands like Barind tracts, many fish farmers are loosing revenue because of production loss due to fish disease. Fish farmer are struggling with higher production cost due to water scarcity, higher and lower temperature, day-night temperature fluctuation and less productivity of ponds. Hatcheries production has also declined due to water scarcity, abrupt temperature change and day-night temperature fluctuation. 6.5.6 Effects on the Coastal Aquaculture Due to climate change, several natural and manmade causes (normal events), Sidr-2007 and Aila-2009 (extreme events), and resulting salinity intrusion, impacted almost every stakeholder including shrimp and prawn farmers and thousands of farm workers living in the coastal Bangladesh. Their effects are still being felt. Aila destroyed freshwater wild and cultured fish stocks. River and shrimp culture pond (gher) became heavily silted and water depth decreased substantially. Salinity intrusion, siltation, ovefishing, decreased productivity and pollution were identified as key reasons for diminishing trends. Stocked fish in ponds are not growing well. Farmers suffer from increasing input cost and decreasing productivity/profitability from ghers/ponds. Frequency of shrimp viral disease increased many folds. 6.5.7 Effects on Livelihood of the Root Level Stakeholders Many fish farmers used to farm fish in leased jolmohals and privately owned ponds now stopped farming because of ever increasing price of fish seed and other inputs, mounting value of lease, and user conflict with rice farmers. About 15 % fishers already left fishing and started other jobs like barber shop, furniture making, or jewellery business. A few went to work for the garments factories in Dhaka. Kartik to Falgun (October – February) is the most critical time for the fishers and poor fish farmers and people who work as day laboures in the large fish farms. There is no fish in the rivers, beels and floodplains and activities in the fish farms this time and hardship begins. Almost all the fisher families including poor fish farmers and fish farm labours reduce number and size of meal and go for cheaper foods as possible, borrow money from local moneylenders, NGOs and wholesalers with high interest. For example, when someone borrows 20,000 taka from an NGO, he/she starts paying back the loan almost instantly from the first week of the loan, 500 taka/week for 11 months. Although he/she pays back 22,000 taka and interest seems only 10 % but as the payment starts from the beginning the cumulative interest stands much higher. In the coast, decreased access to drinking water and cooking fuels and salinization of cropland are the major non-fish livelihood issues. Increasingly more selling and less fish for family consumption due to less fish in the farming system and in the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 100 M.A.R. Hossain et al. open waterbodies and high price in the market – a troubling matter for nutritional security in fisher households. Women and children in this area are forced to do hard job like earth cutting and shrimp PL collection for long hour – day and night, for very low wage. WorldFish (2007) summarized direct impacts of climate change on aquaculture (Table 6.6). Table 6.6 Ways in which climate change directly affect aquaculture production Drivers Higher water temperatures Changes in sea surface temperature Changes in precipitation quantity Effects Raised metabolic rates increase feeding and growth if water quality, DO and food supply are optimum, otherwise reducing feeding and growth. Potential for enhanced primary productivity Shift in location and size of range for a given species Reduced water quality, especially DO. Changes in range/abundance of pathogens, predators and competitors. Invasive species introduced Changes in timing and success of migrations and spawning More frequent harmful algal blooms. Less DO. Increased incidence of disease and parasites Longer growing seasons. Lower natural mortality in winter. Enhanced metabolic/growth rates Enhanced primary productivity Changes in timing and success of migrations, spawning and peak abundance, and sex ratios Change in location and size of range for particular species Changes in fish migration and recruitment patterns and in recruitment success Lower water availability for aquaculture. Poor water quality causing more disease. Increased competition with other water users Altered and reduced water supplies with greater risk of drought Implications for aquaculture Possible benefits for aquaculture, especially intensive and semi-intensive pond systems Aquaculture opportunities both lost and gained Altered culture species and possibly worsened, losses to disease (and so higher operating costs) and possibly higher capital costs for aeration Impacts on seed availability for aquaculture Changes in infrastructure and operating costs from infestations of fouling organisms, pests, and/or predators Potential for increased production and profit, especially for aquaculture Potential benefits for aquaculture Impacts on seed availability for aquaculture Aquaculture opportunities both lost and gained Impacts on seed availability for aquaculture Higher costs of maintaining pond water levels and from stock loss. Reduced production capacity Conflict with other water users. Change of culture species (continued) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 101 Table 6.6 (continued) Drivers Sea level rise Effects Loss of land Changes to estuary systems Salt water infusion into groundwater Loss of coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests Increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms Large waves and storm surges. Inland flooding from intense precipitation. Salinity changes. Introduction of disease or predators into aquaculture facilities during flooding episodes Drought Poor water quality and low availability for aquaculture. Salinity changes Implications for aquaculture Reduced area available for aquaculture Shifts in aquaculture seed Reduced freshwater availability for aquaculture Worsened exposure to waves and storm surges and risk that inland aquaculture become inundated Loss of aquaculture stock and damage to or loss of aquaculture facilities and fishing gear. Higher direct risk to fish farmers; capital costs needed to design cage moorings, pond walls, jetties, etc. that can withstand storms; and insurance costs Loss of cultured stock. Increased production costs. Loss of opportunity as production is limited Source: Modified from WorldFish (2007) 6.6 Suggested Adaptive Measure Catching of broodfish, eggs and spawns particularly shrimp/prawn post larvae from open water needs to be fully stopped without any delay. Fish culture system with irrigated water wherever possible should be established. Mono-culturing monosex tilapia should be extended and promoted instead of mixed carp culture, because tilapia can stand low water depth, adverse physico-chemical parameters and are short-cycled compared to carps. Entrance of spawn-rich water or newly recruited larva/fry should be allowed to beel through FFS like fish pass or fish ladder (Hossain 2010). Hatchery and nursery owners should be encouraged to recycle water in their systems. As it suits better in the drought prone areas, hatchery and nursery owners should be trained properly to rear over-wintered larger-sized fingerlings of carps to reduce the production period and avoid the hazardous period of aquaculture. Shortcycled and tolerant species like sarpunti, tilapia, koi, magur and shing culture in the draught areas should be extended through training and motivation by DoF and NGOs. Like vegetables farming in green house, farmers whoever can afford, should culture fish in more controlled condition during hottest and coolest month mainly through controlling the water temperature and O2 supply. Cage and pen culture should be introduced in the appropriate beels and floodplains. The approaches/ initiatives should be coordinated with all the departments concerned. golam.rabbani@bcas.net M.A.R. Hossain et al. 102 6.6.1 Special Measures to Cope with Climate Change in Haor and Floodplain Areas Fish Culture/Stocking in Pens During monsoon, flood water enters in the different parts of Haor areas. In many places, a small to large area goes under water such a way that if 1–2 corners (5–10 m) are fenced with net or bamboo fence (bana), a relatively large waterbody (10–100 dec or even larger) is created. Natural fish can easily be preserved in this type of waterbodies. Fry of small fish caught at the onset of the monsoon like koi (Anabas testudineus), shing (Heteropneustes fossilis), magur (Clarias batrachus), tengra (Mystus vittatus), shol (Channa striatus), gozar (Channa marulius), chitol (Chitala chitala), mola (Amblypharyngodon mola), dhela (Osteobrama cotio) etc. can be reared in the pens for 4–5 months. Stocking of Small Fish in Kua There are some small but deeper parts in the Haor areas. These are known as Kua. The people living around the Kua can stock different small fish and prawns for 6–8 months in the Kuas forming a group (community based approach). During dry seasons, at least 1 m water should be maintained in the Kuas instead of complete drying out. Using selective gear, all fish can be harvested from Kuas leaving the brood and mature fish, so these fish breed in the following years and provide sustainable recruitment. Culture and Conservation of Small Fish in Backyard Small Ponds and Roadside Ditches The backyard ponds and roadside ditches in the Haor areas can be used for both natural fish conservation and stocking of fish fry brought/purchased from outside. The fry that will be reared in the cages/Hapas will turn to fingerling within 1–2 months and those fingerlings can be stocked and reared in the waterbodies for further 4–6 months. 6.6.2 Responsibilities Fish Farmers to Reduce Climate Change Risks All fish farmers should be aware about climate change and its impacts and share with family and friends. All concerned should comply totally with fish act at all level and all around the year. A complete and comprehensive cease of catching brood fish, eggs and spawns should be ensured. Instead of putting excessive pressure on the aquatic resources, fish farmers and farm labours should look for alternate IGAs. Farmers should know the climate adaptive fishes and receive proper training to culture short-cycled fish to ensure marketing within a short time. Salt and temperature tolerant fish should get priority in faming system. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 103 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 6.6.3 General Features of Climate Change Adaptive Fishes There are a number of fishes (Tables 6.7 and 6.8) that can be adaptive in climate change, like tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), koi (Anabas testudineus), shing (Heteropneustes fossilis), magur (Clarias batrachus), Thai sarpunti (Barbonymus gonionotus), Thai pangas (Pangasius hypophthalmus), galda (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) and Table 6.7 Adaptive fishes in climate change scenario and the adaptation techniques Climate induced changes High temperature Cultivable fish Tilapia, shing, magur and koi Low temperature Tilapia, pangas and koi Fluctuation in day-night temperature Tilapia, shing, magur, pangas and koi Adaptation techniques in culture management The fishes can be cultured during period of high temperature. Following technologies should be followed in farming system – Fish should be provided with safe refuge by covering 15–20 % of waterbody with water hyacinth, so fish can take shelter from direct sunlight during day time 10–15 % area of pond bottom should be made 2 ft deeper than other areas, so fish can take shelter in that part with comparatively cooler water If possible supply of cold water from external sources The fishes can be cultured during the period of low temperature. The following technologies should be followed in the farming system – Reduce the amount of feed and fertilizer application 10–15 % area of pond bottom should be made 2 ft deeper than other areas, so fish can take shelter in that part with comparatively hotter water If possible supply of underground water High fluctuation in day-night temperature can also cause environmental stress for farmed fish and reduce fish productivity. The following technologies should be followed in the farming system in this situation 10–15 % area of pond bottom should be made 2 ft deeper than other areas, so fish can take shelter in that part with comparatively hotter water If possible supply of relatively hotter water during the end part of night (continued) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 104 M.A.R. Hossain et al. Table 6.7 (continued) Climate induced changes Timing of rainfall, pattern and fluctuation Cultivable fish Carp fingerlings of large size (150–200 g), tilapia, sarpunti and prawn Water retention capacity of waterbodies and shorter duration of water holding Carp fingerlings of minimum size (250–300 g), tilapia, sarpunti and galda Change in physicochemical parameters of water due to pollution Carp fingerlings of minimum size (250–300 g), tilapia, shing, magur and koi Salinity (ppt) 15+ Bagda, bhetki and parse 8–14 Bagda, bhetki, parse, pangas and tilapia 0–7 Bagda, galda, bhetki, parse, pangas Adaptation techniques in culture management Fish farmers suffer due to Timing of rainfall, pattern and fluctuation. Therefore, considering the heavy downpour and drought (lack of rain), following adaptive techniques may be followed in fish farming Stocking large sized fingerlings so fish can be marketed within 3–5 months before the onset of heavy downpour or drought Regular application of fed and fertilizer to ensure faster growth of fish Based on the water retention capacity of waterbodies and shorter duration of water holding, most of the times waterbodies become dry out. Considering this aspect, following adaptive techniques may be followed in fish farming Stocking large sized fingerlings so fish can be marketed within 3–5 months before the onset of heavy downpour or drought Regular application of fed and fertilizer to ensure faster growth of fish Pollution due to a number of reasons changes the optimum water quality parameters that hinder fish growth. Considering this aspect, following adaptive techniques may be followed in fish farming Farming fish that can tolerate comparatively harsh conditions Farming fish with accessory air breathing organs (jeol mach) Stocking large sized fingerlings so fish can be marketed within 3–5 months before the onset of heavy downpour or drought Provision of regular water exchange Regular application of fed and fertilizer to ensure faster growth of fish Selected fish should be cultured with greater importance considering the climate change risk, in the areas where most of the times, salinity is more than 15 ppt Selected fish should be cultured with greater importance considering the climate change risk, in the areas where most of the times, salinity is 8–14 ppt Selected fish should be cultured with greater importance considering the climate change risk, in the areas where most of the times, salinity is 0–7 ppt golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 105 Table 6.8 The fishes and their culture mode Fish photos Name of the fish Tilapia Culture mode Tilapia monoculture Tilapia mixed/poly culture Tilapia cage culture Tilapia culture in shrimp/prawn gher Rohu Large sized fingerling poly culture Catla Mrigal Common carp Silver carp Grass carp Sarpunti Thai sarpunti poly culture with carps Pangas Pangas mono culture Koi Indigenous or Thai koi mono culture Thai koi Shing Shing- magur culture Magur (continued) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 106 M.A.R. Hossain et al. Table 6.8 (continued) Fish photos Name of the fish Bhetki Culture mode Bhetki-parse culture in gher Parse Galda Gher farming Bagda bagda (Penaeus monodon) and large sized carp fingerlings. The general features of the fishes are described here – • • • • • • • • • Fast growing (marketable in 3–4 months) Can be cultured in low water depth Can tolerate relative worse environment Can tolerate temperature fluctuation Can tolerate medium salinity level Keep growing in relatively low dissolved O2 Good demand and market price Fish seed and other ingredients needed to culture the fish are easily available Easy culture method 6.6.4 Coping Mechanisms Fish Farmers Now Follow to Sustain and Secure the Livelihood Fish farmer, who can afford and have facilities, are trying to culture fish with irrigated water. Many farmers in the north and north central part of the country are mono-culturing monosex tilapia instead of mixed carp culture, because tilapia can stand low water depth, adverse physico-chemical parameters and are short-cycled compared to carps. The farmers apply commercial feed pellet for tilapia and once the water turns to deep green, they release silver carp or raek (Cirrhinus reba). In the changed scenario, this way many farmers are getting more profit than mixed carp culture. High temperature tolerant species like tilapia (monosex) are stocked in the culture ponds along with short cycled fish like Thai sarpunti and silver carp. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 107 Fish farmers in greater Rajshahi district are stocking 500–700 g carps and culturing for a year or so. As rice mono-culture now-a-days gives very little profit, many farmers are farming fish in irrigated rice field, wherever facilities are available to minimize the cost of rice production. 6.7 Conclusion and Recommendations The crucial step for Bangladesh now is to address and integrate natural disaster and reduce risks into development plans and processes to safeguard the nation’s wellbeing and to secure and sustain the livelihood of people for both present and future generations. This must be addressed systematically so that the country recognizes the risks to development and change the way it plans to develop. Climate changes are responsible for decreased production in all agricultural sectors – crop, fisheries and livestock. In the past, most of the rivers and floodplain, beels, canals were full of fish. Now almost all the water bodies are dead and largely empty of fish. Monsoon duration in this country used to be for 6 months and with regular rainfall and huge abundance of fish. Even during the lean period, in the deeper part of the river, there was enough fish and fisher families sustained their livelihood catching those fish. Presently, lack of rain in time and untimely downpour both are harming the fisheries. Sudden flush flood damages fences and embankment, inundates aquaculture systems and allows stocked fish to escape resulting huge loss. All these are making the livelihood for fishers and fish farmers unsustainable. Since the economic impacts of climate change will have to be borne by individuals, communities and the government, there is a need for evolving climate resilient development strategy involving all the relevant sectors including aquaculture. Only eco-friendly, improved and innovative management practices with insights on technological, environmental and socioeconomic concerns can mitigate the impact of climate change on aquaculture of Bangladesh and ensure sustainable fish production. Aquaculture production in this part of the country need to be accelerated to maximum sustainable production to meet the fish protein demand without disturbing the nature. To face the challenge of climate change on the overall aquaculture and fisheries sector of Bangladesh, there is an urgent need to educate and to establish a greater understanding and appreciation of Bangladesh’s water bodies, aquatic animals and plants and innovative management practices to people from all strata to pave the way of sustainable fisheries and aquaculture management. The following recommendations are made in this regard• Undertake mass awareness programme on adverse impact of climate change in aquaculture sector and the process risk reduction. • Initiate capacity building activities for DoF and NGO officials on fisheries climate change adaptation and farmers/fishers as well. • Establish disaster risk reduction cell in DoF with functional core groups up to divisional level. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 108 M.A.R. Hossain et al. • Prepare a macro level Development Plan for DoF which will help to contribute in preparing future programme planning and investment decision in the sector. • Increase and strengthen inter-sectoral coordination for programme planning and implementation • Strengthening cooperation on other country’s emerging issues: such as sharing of success stories in respect of aquaculture risk reduction and adaptation. Climate changes in the form of – temperature fluctuations, erratic rainfall and flooding, prolonged drought, sea level rise, salinity intrusion, frequent cyclones, storms and tornado affect aquatic ecosystems and their productivity. Fish farming is also threatened by the changes in ocean currents and precipitation that affects wetland/floodplain levels and river flows, and increases storminess and extreme floods and droughts. This makes farming fish extremely hazardous. Greater climate variability and uncertainty complicate the task of expanding aquaculture sustainably. Fish in Bangladesh can provide opportunities to adapt to climate change by, for example, integrating aquaculture and agriculture, farming more resilient and climate tolerant fish, shellfish and aquatic plant varieties which can help farmers cope with drought while boosting profits and household nutrition. Fisheries management must move from seeking to maximize yield to increasing adaptive capacity. Research is needed to find innovative ways to further improve the existing adaptability of fishers and aquaculturists. References Ali ML, Hossain MAR, Ahmed M (2009) Impact of sanctuary on fish production and biodiversity in Bangladesh. Final project report. Bangladesh Fisheries Research Forum (BFRF), Dhaka, 80 pp Ameen M (1999) Development of guiding principles for the prevention of impacts of alien species. Consultative workshop in advance of the 4th meeting of SBSTTA to the CBD, IUCN Bangladesh, Dhaka Baudron AR, Needle CL, Rijnsdorp AD, Marshal CT (2014) Warming temperatures and smaller body sizes: synchronous changes in growth of North Sea fishes. Glob Chang Biol 20(4):1023–1031 Belton B, Azad A (2012) The characteristics and status of pond aquaculture in Bangladesh. Aquaculture 358–359:196–204 Beveridge MCM, Little DC (2002) The history of aquaculture in traditional societies. In: CostaPierce BA (ed) Ecological aquaculture: the evolution of the blue revolution. Blackwell Science, Oxford, pp 4–29 CCC (2009) Characterizing long-term changes of Bangladesh climate in context of agriculture and irrigation. Climate Change Cell, DoE, MoEF; Component 4b, CDMP, MoFDM, Dhaka, 104 pp Dey MM, Bose ML, Alam MF (2008) Recommendation domains for pond aquaculture. Country case study: development and status of freshwater aquaculture in Bangladesh, WorldFish center studies and reviews no. 1872. The WorldFish Center, Penang, 73 pp DoF (Department of Fisheries) (2013) Matshya Saptaha Saranika-2012. Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock. The Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh, Ramna, Dhaka, 144 pp golam.rabbani@bcas.net 6 Livelihood Security: Implications from Aquaculture Sectors 109 FAO (2005) National aquaculture sector overview. Bangladesh. National aquaculture sector overview fact sheets. Text by Gias, U.A. In: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (online). Rome. Updated 1 Jan 2005. Cited 8 May 2014. http://www.fao.org/fishery/countrysector/naso_bangladesh/en Felts RA, Rajts F, Akhteruzzaman M (1996) Small indigenous fish species culture in Bangladesh. Technical brief, EC & DoF, integrated food assisted development project, Gulshan, Dhaka, 41 pp Hossain MAR (2010) Inland fisheries resource enhancement and conservation in Bangladesh. RAP Publication 2010/22. In: Miao W, Silva SD, Davy B (ed) Inland fisheries enhancement and conservation in Asia, FAO Regional Office for the Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok. pp 1–17 Hossain MAR (2014) Habitat and fish diversity: Bangladesh perspective. In: Wahab MA, Shah MS, Hossain MAR, Barman BK, Hoq ME (eds) Recent advances in fisheries of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Fisheries Research Forum, Dhaka, pp 1–26 Hossain MAR, Wahab MA (2009) The diversity of cypriniforms throughout Bangladesh: present status and conservation challenges. In: Tepper GH (ed) Species diversity and extinction. Nova, New York, pp 143–182 Hossain MAR, Belton B, Thilsted SH (2013) Preliminary rapid appraisal of dried fish value chains in Bangladesh. WorldFish Bangladesh, Dhaka, 41 pp Rahman AKA (2005) Freshwater Fishes of Bangladesh. Zoological Society of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 394 pp Sultana P (2012) Implications of floodplain aquaculture enclosure. J Environ Plan Manag 55:1159–1174 WorldFish (2007) Fisheries and aquaculture can provide solutions to cope with climate change, Issues brief. WorldFish Center, Penang, 4 pp golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security Md. Abu Syed Abstract The member states of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) share similar food habits with staple food rice is facing two challenges towards achieving food security and the promotion of regional trade. Trade engagement within South Asia, relative to Non-South-Asian countries, found to be low. Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka trade more with other South Asian countries compared to that among any two of them. The global food crisis 2007– 2008 sheds light on the discrepancies between SAARC’s supposed objective of becoming an integrated economic community and its member countries’ continued tendency to put national economic interests above regional solidarity. At regional scale India contributes most in cereal production and export. However, to a large extent, the way in the crisis was handled at the national level not only contributed to further regional as well as global food price volatility, but also undermined the food security situation in the region. Bangladesh could not get rice to purchase during these critical days of 2007–2008 despite repeated attempts to pay as much as market demands. The diverse capacity of SAARC member countries to produce food, store and in distribution systems, food insecurity can be best tackled through a regional approach with differentiated responsibility for member states. This is the area where regional trade policy regimes need further integration so that it can withstand any sudden shock. It appears that many commodity markets within the countries and the South Asia region are not integrated. Integration of wheat and rice markets needs attention and action within countries and in region. These may be attributed to the lower number products of each country with surplus to export compared to Indian capacity for production and export. This chapter will try to investigate regional food trade (with some extent trade policies), barriers and opportunities and their implications to the regional and national food security in SAARC region. Keywords South Asia • Regional trade • Food security • Agriculture • Poverty Md.A. Syed (*) Remote Sensing, GIS and Modeling Division; NRM, Ecosystem Modeling and Adaptation Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), House 10, Road 16A, Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh e-mail: mabusyed@gmail.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_7 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 111 112 7.1 Md.A. Syed Introduction South Asia, home to 40 % of the world’s poor earning less than a dollar a day and concentration of poverty even more than Africa. Though South Asia is home to 22 % of the global population, however generates less than 2 % of global income. Most of the South Asian poor populations depend on agriculture for their livelihood. UK Hunger Alliance (2011) opined that food prices are expected to stay high and volatile for the foreseeable future and it’s the poorest that are being hit hardest. Global Hunger Index published by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in 2011 GHI, globally only 15 countries and in South Asia only were able to moved out of the bottom two categories–“extremely alarming” and “alarming” food security situation particularly food production point of view. Nearly 50 % of the labor force is engaged in agriculture in 2010 (WDR 2012) and the sector accounts for about 20 % of national GDP. The region is dominated by small farmers with an average holding size of less than 2 ha, who are net buyers of food. It is therefore conceivable that food crises have a deep and lasting impact on the well-being of the peoples in these countries. In this study we attempt to analyze the food security scenario in each of the South Asian countries and the region as a whole. We also assess the scope for regional integration and cooperation to attain food security in the region. In this chapter section a detailed analysis of the existing and potential supplydemand deficits for major commodities important from the point of food security carried out. This is followed by an analysis of the agricultural trade policy and the extent of agricultural trade engagement of each country in the South Asia region. 7.2 Agriculture in South Asia and Food Security Agriculture contributes well over 20 % of national GDP in South Asia region and is the key to secure food and livelihood security. Because agriculture is still the single largest employment generation sector that engage rural labor force. Among full time and seasonal labor force 50 % employment comes from agriculture and remains as the mainstay of economic activities in the region. Agriculture in the region still heavily dependent on nature for timely rainfall for irrigation and hence potentially remain vulnerable to changes in natural climatic process including rainfall and other forms of precipitation. However, it is important to note that gradual industrialization and mechanization of agriculture, employment in the agriculture sector and its share in national GDP is declining. Another transitional process going on in agriculture sector is that it is getting more integrated into industrialization and economic growth through gradual increase agro-industries development. Thus agriculture is increasingly influencing more the overall economic growth in the region. Gradual mechanization, required forward and backward linkage industries in the sector are also contributing to the further integration of agriculture sector with the national and regional economies in the region. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 113 Fig. 7.1 Agriculture value additions per worker in South Asian Countries (Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), Development Data Group, World Bank) Fig. 7.2 Percentage of irrigate land of total agricultural land (Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), Development Data Group, World Bank) The growth rates of agricultural value added per worker in during 2000–2009 period is substantially lower in most countries (Fig. 7.1). However, the growth rate of per capita GDP is much higher during the same period in all the countries, except Nepal, representing stagnation in the agricultural sector in South Asia region during the last decades. The stagnation in agriculture led to rising inter-sectoral disparities in the region. From Fig. 7.2, it is clear that the percentage of agricultural land to total area is stagnant during the last decade showing that increasing area under agriculture is not an option for increasing production in the region. However, Fig. 7.2 shows that the percentage of irrigated land to total agricultural land is also almost stagnant, showing absence of investment (mostly public) in a crucial input like irrigation. golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.A. Syed 114 7.3 Supply-Demand of Agricultural Products and Trade in South Asia The supply demand scenario analysis was carried out for each country and the region as a whole to assess the present scenario, indicators like production/ consumption ratio, import/consumption ratio, ending stocks/consumption ratio and production instability index were computed for the triennium ending 2009. The FAO Stats data were utilized to the analysis. However, these measures pertain to the one time period and therefore do not completely inform us about the emerging scenario. For example, a country may possess lower production in during 2007–2009 trienniums as compared to consumption. In such a case the production/consumption ratio will be less than 100. However, if the production is growing much faster than consumption, this ratio may rapidly increase and may even cross 100 in the near future. To account for these dynamics, we have combined the present supplydemand scenario with the medium term growth rates (from 2001 to 2011) for each commodity to draw conclusions about the potential surplus/deficit in the region. Based on this analysis, the present supply demand scenario and future trends of various commodities are as follows. Rice Production/Consumption Ratio is high in Pakistan, medium in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh whereas Production/Consumption Ratio is low in Afghanistan. The ending stocks (Ending stocks/consumption ratio) are adequate in Pakistan, India and but inadequate in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. The Production Instability Index is high for Afghanistan, medium for India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The Production Instability Index is low for Bangladesh. As for emerging trends, in Afghanistan, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption. The yield growth rate is stagnant. It appears that Afghanistan is largely self-sufficient in rice with no major deficits. In Bangladesh, the growth rate of domestic production is greater than domestic consumption and the growth rate of stocks is high. The yield growth rate is also impressive. Therefore, there is some potential for export surpluses in this country. In India, production growth rate much higher as compared to consumption. The growth rate of ending stocks is also quite high. These, combined with positive growth rate of yield, show that there is potential for export surpluses in India. In, the production growth rate is negative and consumption growth rate is positive and the consequent supply-demand gap is met through imports and drawing down the stocks. Imports show a high positive growth rate and ending stocks a high negative growth rate. The growth rates of yield and area are negative (decline). All these trends indicate that major deficits for rice may continue for some time. In Nepal, the domestic production growth rate is much lower than that of consumption and the resulting supply-demand gap is met manly through imports. There is no major stockholding in the country and the yield growth is almost stagnant. All these trends indicate that there are major emerging deficits in this country. In Pakistan, the production growth rate is much higher than golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 115 that of consumption. The import, export and stocks growth rates are also quite high. These combined with high growth rates of area and yield show that there is large potential for exports in Pakistan. In Sri Lanka, the production growth rate is much higher than that of consumption. The stocks growth rates are also high leading to high growth rate in exports. These trends, together with high growth rate of area indicate that there is a definite potential for exports in Sri Lanka. The broad inference is that there exists some export surplus in Pakistan and India. There is potential for export surplus in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka while Afghanistan and are in dire need of imports. Wheat The Production/Consumption Ratio is medium in Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan. Low in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and combined with high import/ consumption ratios. Ending stocks (Ending stocks/consumption ratio) are adequate in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. All the major importers such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka hold high level of stocks showing predominantly precautionary/transactions motives of stockholding. The Production Instability Index is high for all the countries except India, Nepal and Pakistan. As for emerging trends, in Afghanistan, the production growth rate much less than that of consumption. The resulting supply-demand gap is met mainly through imports. In Bangladesh, the growth rate of domestic production is very much lower than that of domestic consumption. The supply is augmented through imports. These trends, together with the fact that area growth rate is negative (although the yield growth rate is positive) show that the deficits are likely to continue for some time. Bhutan has no domestic production of wheat and is completely dependent on imports. In India, the production growth rate is slightly higher compared to consumption. The growth rate in imports is high. Although the growth rate in stocks is high, the growth rates of area and yield are not significant. These trends indicate that there is hardly any potential for export surpluses to emerge in India. In India the production growth rate is higher than consumption growth rate. There is a decline in imports and increase in exports. The growth rate of ending stocks is comfortable. These emerging trends indicate that India is likely to be self-sufficient in wheat. In Nepal, domestic production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption. There is no stockholding in the country. The area and yield growth rates are stagnant. The inference is that there are no major deficits presently but may emerge in future. In Pakistan, production growth rate is higher than that of consumption. There is steady growth in stockholding and exports. The growth rates of area and yield are also satisfactory. These trends indicate that there is a definite potential for wheat exports in Pakistan. In Sri Lanka, there is no wheat production and the country is completely dependent on imports. The stocks are mainly held for precautionary purposes. It appears that the deficits in Sri Lanka are likely to continue for a long time. Overall, it appears that there is not adequate export surplus in the region to meet the import requirements of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka. Afghanistan also needs stable import supply. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 116 Md.A. Syed Corn The Production/Consumption Ratio is medium for Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan. Ending stocks/consumption ratio is adequate for Pakistan and but inadequate for all other countries. Production Instability Index is high for Afghanistan, Bhutan medium for India and low for Nepal and Pakistan. As for emerging trends, in Afghanistan, the supply is keeping pace with demand entirely through domestic production with very little imports. Major part of the growth in production is through yield increases. The broad inference is that this country is largely showing self-sufficiency in corn. In India, the growth rate of domestic production is higher than that of domestic consumption and the growth rate of stocks is also comfortable. The exports are growing faster than imports. Therefore, there is potential for exports from India. In, the production growth rate very low compared to consumption. The deficit is mainly bridged through imports (imports show high growth rate). There is very little prospect of self- sufficiency with very low growth rate of yield. The broad inference for this country is that there are emerging supply-demand deficits. Imports may be needed for a long time. In Nepal, the production growth rate is only slightly less than consumption. However, the growth rate of imports is high, mainly to build stocks. The growth rate of yield is quite low. The deficits in Nepal may continue for some time. In Pakistan, the domestic production and consumption are in balance. There is a high growth rate of imports, mainly for re-exports. The growth rate of yield is high. The inference is that there exists good potential for export surplus in Pakistan. Overall in the South Asian region, the production growth rate is higher than that of consumption. The import and export growth rates are high. The ending stocks not very high. The broad inference is that there exists low exportable surplus of corn in the region, except Pakistan and India. Some potential exists for trade between Pakistan and India and Nepal. Sugar The sugar production/consumption ratio is medium for India and Pakistan and low for all other countries. The import/consumption ratio is high for Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Production Instability Index is also high in all countries. For sugar (centrifugal), the Production/Consumption Ratio is medium for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Nepal. The ratio is low for Afghanistan, Maldives and Sri Lanka. The Ending stocks/consumption ratio is adequate in Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. As for emerging trends, in Bangladesh, the production growth rate is much lower than that of consumption, indicating large potential deficits in future. In India, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption. This implies that there could be no large potential deficits or surpluses in India. In the production growth rate is much higher than that of consumption, pointing to a large potential export surpluses in this country. There is no domestic production in Maldives and the country is completely dependent on imports. In Nepal, the production growth rate is higher than that of consumption, indicating potential export surplus. In Pakistan, the production growth rate is much lower than that of consumption, implying large potential deficits in future. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 117 In Sri Lanka, production growth rate is higher than that of consumption, showing some potential for export. Overall, in South Asia the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption showing no large potential deficits or surpluses in the region. At the global level, the production growth rate is higher than that of consumption, indicating some potential for export. Overall, it appears that presently there is export surplus for sugar (refined) only in India. Large potential deficits are emerging in Pakistan. Maldives is totally dependent on imports. In the case of sugar (centrifugal) there is some trade potential from India and Pakistan to Afghanistan, Maldives, and Bangladesh. Pulses As for emerging trends, in Bangladesh, the production growth rate is much lower than that of consumption showing large potential deficits in future. In India, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption indicating no large potential deficits or surpluses in the two countries. In Maldives, the production growth rate is much lower than consumption showing large potential deficits in future. In Nepal, the production growth rate is much lower than that of consumption indicating large potential deficits. In Pakistan, the production growth rate is higher than consumption showing some potential for export surplus. In Sri Lanka, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption, indicating no large potential deficits or surpluses. Overall, in South Asia, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption, showing that there are no large potential deficits or surpluses. At the global level, also the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption, showing that there are no large potential deficits or surpluses. The foregoing analysis indicates that slight potential for exports exists only in Pakistan. All other countries in the region may face deficits or may attain self-sufficiency. Edible Oils Palm Oil: All the countries are highly dependent on imports. Almost the entire consumption is met through imports. As for emerging trends, in Afghanistan and Bangladesh, there is no domestic production and the two countries are completely dependent on imports. Imports and stocks are used to meet the production- consumption gap. It appears that these major deficits will continue in these countries. In Sri Lanka, although the production is stagnant, no major deficits are likely to emerge because of a declining trend in consumption. All the countries are highly dependent on imports. Almost the entire consumption is met through imports. Production/productivity and consumption trends indicate that these deficits are likely to continue for some time. Soybean Oil The Production/Consumption Ratio is low for all the countries. The Ending stocks/ consumption ratio is adequate in Bangladesh and but inadequate in India an Pakistan. The Production Instability Index is very high in the region in all the countries compared to the world average but is low in Bangladesh and India when compared to the South Asian average. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 118 Md.A. Syed As for emerging trends, in Bangladesh, the production growth rate is much higher than that of consumption. But the growth rate of stocks is negative. Therefore, there is unlikely to be any exportable surplus but no major deficits are anticipated either. The country is likely to remain self-sufficient. In India, the production growth rate is much higher compared to consumption and there is consistent stock holding (steady growth rate). The inference is that there is potential for export surplus in India. These growth trends, together with reduced exports and large growth rate of stocks, show that there is potential for export surplus in India. In Pakistan, there is substantial decline in production. There is decline in consumption also but the growth rate is much lower as compared to production indicating that major deficits may emerge in Pakistan. Overall, in South Asia, the production growth rate is much higher than that of consumption. The growth rate of stocks is positive. There is potential for export surplus in the region. At the global level, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption. The growth in trade and stocks is almost stagnant. These trends indicate that the supply and demand are just in balance presently at the global level and deficits are likely to emerge in future. The broad inference is that there is some exportable surplus in the region. Production/productivity and consumption trends indicate that potential for selfsufficiency or slight export surplus exists in India, Bangladesh. Major deficits may continue in Pakistan. Sunflower Oil The Production/Consumption Ratio is medium only in Pakistan. For all other countries, that is, India and the ratio is very low. The Ending stocks/consumption ratio is adequate in India, but inadequate in Pakistan. As for emerging trends, in India, the production growth rate is much lower compared to consumption. Imports and stocks are mainly used to meet the supplydemand gap and also for re-exports. The broad inference is that major deficits may continue in India. In the region, the production growth rate is much lower compared to consumption. Imports and stocks are used to meet the gap. The stocks are used for precautionary purposes. All these trends indicate that the deficits in sunflower oil may continue for some time. In Pakistan, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption. The growth rate of imports is negative. The stocks are held mainly for transaction purposes. These trends indicate that Pakistan is largely self-sufficient with no major surpluses or deficits. Overall, in the South Asian region, the production growth rate is much lower than that of consumption, which in turn, can lead to large potential deficits. At the global level, the production growth rate is almost equal to that of consumption. These trends indicate that, at the global level, the supply and demand are just in balance. Deficits are likely to emerge in south Asia since export surpluses are not anticipated in the world market. Overall, it appears that there is no exportable surplus in the region. The Production Instability Index is also very high compared to world average. Production/productivity and consumption trends indicate that major deficits may continue in the region for some time. No exportable surplus in the region for any of the major edible oils, except soybean oil. Al the countries are highly dependent on imports from the world market. Production instability index is also very high. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 119 Countries: India and Pakistan are either self-sufficient or possess export surplus in most commodities. Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan are facing deficits and rely on imports for most of the important commodities. Bangladesh shows encouraging trends in commodities such as rice and potato. Increased production compared to consumption lead to significant surpluses of potato in Bangladesh is an increasing trend. Bangladeshi potato is mostly exported to Sri Lanka, Russia and to extent North Eastern States in India. On the other hand from one of top exporter of tea Bangladesh recently became net importer. This is caused by increased domestic demand surpassed growth rate in production. Resulting gaps are fulfilled by imports from India and Sri Lanka. 7.4 Agricultural Trade Policy and Trade Patterns in South Asian Countries Bangladesh Bangladesh’s agricultural trade policy is often perceived as one of increasing openness to imports, but with significant anti-export bias. In reality however, trade policy has been actively used both on the side of imports for management of the staple grains and the side of exports in promotion of the exports of locally produced value added products. On the export side, the policy has been relatively consistent. On the import side, the focus is to minimize the potential negative impacts of trade on food security and as a result the interventions have been more ad- hoc in nature. In practice, both exportable and importable have therefore been subject to the use of instruments associated with trade promotion and trade restriction respectively. Although a significant number of quantitative restrictions have been dismantled and there has been a shift towards greater use of ad valorem tariffs, the average tariff has is still high at 32 %. Cereal trade faces relatively low tariffs in general, but supplementary duties are significantly used when cheaper imports flow in from major exporters like India. Bangladesh is a net importer of rice and wheat. After allowing private sector in 1993 to import food grains, private sector played a major role in the commercial imports of food grains, particularly after the floods in 1998 and 2004. Despite zero or very low import tariffs, Bangladesh has been facing problems in imports of rice and edible oils mainly because of the restrictions on exports by India and Argentina respectively. In recent times, Bangladesh has allowed limited export of rice particularly aromatic varieties and restrictions temporarily used since 2007 to manage domestic prices in conjunction with the management of food reserves. The intervention in grains trade has increased significantly after the food rice crisis in 2008, reflecting a change from the strategy of self-reliance that has been in place since the early 1990s to one of self-sufficiency. Support to certain exportable also appears to have had positive effects in terms of improving producer incomes, in addition to their contribution to foreign exchange earnings. Dwelling on a bumper yield and good stocks at home, Bangladesh government decided to export at least golam.rabbani@bcas.net 120 Md.A. Syed 50,000-MT of rice, first of its kind since the independence in 1971, to Sri Lanka in the fiscal year 2014–2015. First consignment of 12500 MT of it left Bangladesh port for Srilnaka on December 27, 2014. Bhutan Bhutan farmers have traditionally practiced subsistence agriculture leading to selfsufficiency in food for a long time. However, with economic growth and population increases, imports are becoming a necessity. India is the main trading partner for Bhutan and is the main source of food imports. Bhutan imposes no tariffs or any other form of non-tariff restrictions on food imports from India. India also exempted Bhutan from rice export restrictions in 2008. India Since independence, India has virtually banned imports of all agricultural products except basic foodstuffs like cereals, pulses and vegetable oils. After the introduction of economic reforms in 1991–1992, the import policy was gradually liberalized, but the restrictions on basic foodstuffs took longer to be phased out. Among the items that were restricted in the pre-reform era, edible oils (other than coconut oil) were the first to be liberalized in 1994. After 1994, edible oil imports were determined mainly by tariffs. It was not until March 2002 that restrictions were phased out on milk and milk products and on cereals. In the early 1960s, imports, mainly of wheat from the USA under the food aid programs, constituted a big proportion of domestic supplies, accounting for as much as 42 %. After the government decision to go for self-sufficiency, import dependence rapidly declined. Except in period 1974–1976 and to some extent in 1983, when large imports were made, the contribution of imports to domestic availability was in no year more than 3 %. In the case of rice, import dependence was very low right from the outset. Imports, as a percentage of domestic availability were never in excess of 3 % even in the early 1960s, at the peak of India’s import dependence for food grains. Since then imports have tapered off to negligible quantities. But reliance on imports has been a feature of India’s edible oil economy. In the late 1970s imports increased and remained in the range of 36–47 % during the period 1976–1987. With the tightening of import restrictions in the following years import dependence came down to 4 % in 1993. After liberalization in 1994, it rose steadily so as to exceed 50 % since 2000. This was despite the fact that in case of soybean oil there had been a substantial increase in domestic production. Maldives Though Maldives is heavily rely on imported foods; however it is also a major exporter of marine products, mainly to countries outside SAARC Thailand, UK, Japan, France and Pakistan. Their marine export within SAARC region is limited mainly to Sri Lanka. Nepal Nepal followed a protectionist, import substituting regime between 1956 and 1986, but the trade regime has since been much more liberal. Nepal is now a relatively more open economy in the South Asian region with low average tariff rates, ranging from 10 to 15 % and virtually no quantitative restrictions. The applied agricultural golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 121 tariffs are way below the WTO bound rates. Nepal also does not provide any explicit export subsidies. The country is a net importer of cereals, particularly rice from India, through formal and informal channels. The liberal trade policy regime adopted since the 1980s focused primarily on addressing the bias against exports, reducing distortions in domestic markets and procedural and institutional reforms. The 1992 trade policy continued the same thrust. However, the choice of policy instruments and pace of liberalization are constrained by both formal and informal trade relations with India. As a result, even the liberal trade policy could not produce the desired results in terms of agricultural development, export growth and diversification and poverty reduction. The recent policy thrust recognizes that export development is essential to sustained broadbased economic growth and poverty reduction in light of the small domestic market. Although the policy recognizes the need to establish increased linkages of the export sector with other sectors of the economy, it did not support explicitly the import competing sectors. The following issues remain important for trade policy in Nepal – trade relations with India on agriculture products; the need for tariff rationalization for primary agriculture products vis-à- vis processed agriculture products and other industrial products; the need for support measures in agricultural products, in particular the products identified by the 2009 trade policy for thrust areas; the role of exchange rate regime in promoting agricultural exports; the role of international trade in ensuring food security. Pakistan Pakistan is one of the pioneering members of the WTO and is an active member of various groups and alliances. Pakistan has begun deregulation and liberalization of agriculture in the 1980s – mainly under the advice of the International Financial Institutions (IFI). Many non-tariff barriers have been removed and the list of negative import items has been greatly reduced. Pakistan has entered into Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. Pakistan is a party to two agreements for regional trade liberalization including the SAARC with India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and the Maldives. Textiles dominate Pakistan’s exports. Other major exports include rice, seafood and products. Major agricultural imports include edible oils, cotton, sugar, pulses, tea, milk and milk products, and dry fruits. Sri Lanka Tea is the major traditional export sub-sector of Sri Lanka, however rubber, coconut, spices, and more recently some non-traditional products like fruits and vegetables also showing promising trend. Rice also gradually evolving as dominating import substitute or competing sub-sector but other crops, livestock and dairy products are also showing encouraging trends. Policies for trade and price management in these tow subsector have been historically different, which remains so till date. Wheat flour is an essential commodity and second important staple food grain after rice in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka does not produce wheat domestically in the country and meet all their consumption requirements fully through imports. Trade and pricing policies on wheat, apart from implications for wheat consumption, also have golam.rabbani@bcas.net 122 Md.A. Syed important implications for rice (Dayaratna-Banda et al. 2008). Particularly, the reductions in wheat tariffs have been found to have suppressing effects on the farm gate prices of rice. It is largely for this impact on rice that wheat policy becomes important in Sri Lanka. This close cross-price effect was also observed in 2000 when the government introduced consumption subsidy in the form of reduced price of wheat flour. Because of the effect, the subsidy was quickly withdrawn in 2001. The government’s long term objective is to reduce the consumption of wheat to be replaced by domestic rice. According to some reports the wheat imports have fallen significantly, from around 120,000 tonnes a month about 5 years ago to around 80,000 tonnes per month in recent months (FAO 2011). National food security experts have welcomed this. The Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) continues to intervene actively on a range of food products with a variety of trade and pricing policies. The taxation of traditional exports has fallen from over 40 % during the 1960s and 1970s to about 20 % in the 1980s and 1990s (Bandara and Jayasuriya 2009). In contrast, importables generally enjoyed positive protection, ranging at modest levels for rice to high levels for products like chilies, onions and potatoes, but also for some other food products in recent years. The trade and pricing policies are aimed at protecting farmers, containing retail prices and encouraging value addition. The use of one instrument (mainly price) for such varied objectives affects different stakeholders in different ways. Wheat flour, sugar and pulses are the major imports followed by milk, fruits, onions and potatoes. Despite few measures to liberalize agricultural trade, the sector remains highly protected. The bound tariff rates on agricultural products are in the range of 100–300 % although the applied tariffs are much lower. There are also quantitative restrictions (QR) and other non-tariff barriers for some agricultural products. The trade policy regime for rice has been guided principally by considerations of domestic market price, raising tariffs when prices are lower and waiving duties during shortages. Sri Lanka is a relatively high-cost rice producer in Asia and so the rice sector would face stiff competition from lower-priced imports if trade is fully liberalized. Price stability – especially avoiding the extremes of low and high prices – will remain the primary goal and this implies that trade policy will continue to be used for price stabilization as in the recent years. 7.5 Agricultural Trade Engagement of Countries Within the South Asian Region ASEAN Secretariat (2011a) has estimated that economies in Asia and Pacific would lose 1.5 % point of GDP growths cumulative over 2011 and 2012 due to higher fuel and food prices as compared to 2010. ASEAN Secretariat (2011b) has also estimated that additional 19.4 million people in the region remained in poverty due to increased food and energy prices in 2010, and people in some South Asian countries were amongst the most affected. The learning from this precarious situation golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 123 Fig. 7.3 Map shows sourcing of different commodities in South Asia region (Source: FAOSTAT accessed April 2014) member states have signed “Agreement on Establishing the SAARC Food Bank” in New Delhi on April 3, 2007 by the member states. The top ten exports and imports of each country are identified and the share of South Asian countries in the total exports and imports is computed. It can be seen from Fig. 7.3 that Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh source their imports from their South Asian neighbors whereas on the side of exports, it is again Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh that export most to the countries in the region. India’s engagement, in terms of percentage share of other South Asian countries, is low although in absolute terms it could be much higher than other countries. It needs to be noted that India is the major trading partner for almost all the countries on the import side and for most of the countries on the export side. The global food crisis 2007–2008 sheds light on the discrepancies between SAARC’s supposed objective of becoming an integrated economic community and its member countries’ continued tendency to put national economic interests above regional solidarity. At regional scale India contributes most in cereal production and export. However, to a large extent, the way in the crisis was handled at the national level not only contributed to further regional as well as global food price volatility, but also undermined the food security situation in the region. Despite being ready to pay high price Bangladesh could not get rice to purchase during these critical days of 2007–2008 despite repeated attempts to pay as much as market demands. In this section, the trade engagement of a country with other South Asian neighbors is assessed. The Table 7.1 illustrates the export import scenarios in south-Asian region. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 124 Md.A. Syed Table 7.1 Exports and imports in South Asian region Exports and imports in South Asian region Imports No of products with share (out of top 10 products) 25– 50– Country <25 % 50 % 75 % >75 % Bangladesh 6 1 1 2 India 10 Exports Major trading partners No. of products with share (out of top 10 products) Imports Exports 25– 50– <25 % 50 % 75 % >75 % 7 1 2 India India 9 1 Bangladesh, Pakistan 9 1 – Afghanistan 8 1 1 Maldives 7 2 1 Nepal 4 2 4 2 8 India India Pakistan 6 2 2 4 2 4 India Afghanistan Sri Lanka 5 2 3 8 1 1 India India Sources: Author’s calculations based on data from FAOSTAT, (Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), Rome In India, the share of imports from other countries in South Asia is very low. However, the share of exports to South Asia is high in dry onions (58 %), cotton (24 %), maize (21 %), rice (19 %), soybean cake (16 %) and tea (14 %). In Pakistan, the share of imports from South Asia is high in onions (100 % – India 73 %, Afghanistan 24 %, 3 %), soybean cake (99 % – India), chick peas (31 % India 23 %, 7 %), cotton lint (28 % – India 26 %) and tea (12 % – India 5 %, Bangladesh 4 %, Sri Lanka %). The share of exports to South Asia is high in hydrogenated oil (99 % – Afghanistan), potatoes (97 % – Sri Lanka 37 %, 33 %, Afghanistan 27 %), wheat (89 % – Afghanistan 34 %, India 33 %, Bangladesh 19 %), dates (88 % – India 86 %), cotton lint (40 % – Bangladesh 36 %, India 5 %), rice broken (36 % – Afghanistan 25 %, 8 %) and rice miled (17–10 %, Afghanistan 5 %). In Bangladesh, the share of imports from South Asia is high in soybean cake (99 % – India), dry onions (100 % – India), maize (73 % – India), lentils (38 % – India), cotton (21 % – India and Pakistan). The share of exports to South Asia is high in tea (82–71 %, Afghanistan 11 %), nuts (76 % – India), jute (61 % – Pakistan 36 %, India 25 %), cotton waste (17 % – India). In Sri Lanka, the share of imports from South Asia is high in onions (100 % – India 94 %, Pakistan 6 %), chilies and peppers (97 % – India 96 %), soybean cake (84 % – India), sugar refined (32 % – India), fatty acids (30 % – India) and lentils (16 % – India 11 %, Nepal 5 %). The share of exports to South Asia is high in food wastes (100 % – India 97 %) and nut dry (36 % – India 18 %, Pakistan 17 %). In Nepal, the share of imports from South Asia is high in soybean cake (100 % – India), jute (100 % – India), tobacco unmanufactured (100 % – India), rice milled (81 % – India), food prep nes (40 % – India), rapeseed (29 % – India) and fatty acids (17 % – India). The share of exports to South Asia is high in ginger (100 % – India), nutmeg, mace and cardamoms (100 % – India), nuts (100 % – India), orange juice golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 125 (100 % – India), food prep nes (99 % – India), fruit juice nes (100 % – India), wheat (96 % Bangladesh), tea (95 % – India), macaroni (74 % – India 70 %, Bhutan 4 %) and lentils (65 % – Bangladesh). In Maldives, the share of imports from South Asia is high in rice milled (89 % – India 65 %, Pakistan 20 %, Sri Lanka 4 %), wheat flour (56 % – India 45 %, Sri Lanka 11 %). In, the share of imports from South Asia is high in tea (86 % – Sri Lanka 57 %, India 29 %) and rice milled (38 % – Pakistan). The share of exports to South Asia is high in apple juice (74 % – Afghanistan), fruit juice (24 % – Afghanistan), dates (20 % – Pakistan 13 %, India 4 %, Afghanistan 3 %) and soybean oil (15 % – Afghanistan). 7.6 Regional Market Integration South Asian countries share only 5 % their trade intra-regionally whereas this is 58 % in the EU, 52 % in the NAFTA region, and 26 % in the ASEAN zone (ASEAN Secretariat 2011a, b). Non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs) are primarily thought to be the main obstacles in enhancing trades among SAARC countries. The also mentioned that complete elimination of tariffs under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) may increase intra-regional trade by 1.6 times. In the name protecting other than tariffs different non-tariff barriers those affect free flow of trade, come under the NTB umbrella. While protection is to an extent appropriate given domestic economic priorities, including poverty reduction, South Asian trade is hampered by excessive non-tariff barriers to trade. A large proportion of NTBs in South Asia consist of technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phytosanitary measures. The first are to do with labelling requirements, while the second are regulations to ensure food security and prevent spreading of diseases. According to a 2008 Asian Development Bank study, these and related measures made up 86.3 % of all NTBs in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Inadequate infrastructure is one of the major NTBs borders between India and Bangladesh especially for food grains. Different kinds of NTBs exist between SAARC member states at all levels. For instance, if the existing border infrastructure between Bangladesh and India’s Northeast is upgraded, trade volume can potentially go up by five to six times the current level. Short-term measures like setting up markets (border haats) along the Indo-Bangladesh border as planned will boost trade, though only to a certain extent and at the local level. Trading on agriculture and agro based products is a sticking point in SAARC region as we see it else where. Ad-hoc export prohibitions on agricultural goods are put in place from time to time on top of export subsidies. For instance, Bangladesh maintained a ban on the export of aromatic rice until recently and August 2014 Bangladesh decided for first ever export non aromatic rice to Sri Lanka thanks to good production in last season and good stock of this staple food. Though it seems difficult to remove agricultural NTBsin South Asia by not affecting the vast farming population dependent on agriculture is a political imperative. NTBs can affect a golam.rabbani@bcas.net 126 Md.A. Syed range of other sectors. For instance, pharmaceutical trade between India and Bangladesh is hampered as India has strict registration and packaging requirements, customs clearances, and so on. Likewise, Sri Lankan processed food exporters to India face non-tariff barriers under the Indo-Sri Lanka FTA because of customs delays arising from testing and certifications. Procedural issues linking code mismatches trade items on the positive list between India and Pakistan is one of avoidable barriers which can be avoided by harmonizing customs norms and standards. Easing transportation difficulties, especially for trade between India and Bangladesh and between India and Pakistan, is important too. Access to third countries India or else or import/export ports particularly for Bangladesh to Bhutan and Nepal can bolster trade among three countries while not affecting Indian trade regime negatively. India has list of goods those cannot be traded through a particular land port or if there is no list some time periodical notices are issued. So that some particular products imports from Bangladesh can be discouraged or controlled if not totally stopped. Pakistan also has a list of goods that cannot be traded through a particular route (land or rail) for reasons that are not known to the trading community. Improving transport and communication, warehousing infrastructures along trading routes whether it is rail, road or water were agreed upon by SAARC countries can be expedited for enhanced trading among regional countries. The way forward for SAARC with respect to NTBs should also include things like memoranda of understanding between custom authorities, and providing seamless transit facilities. 7.7 Climate Change, Regional Trades and Food Security Food security depends on robust food systems that encompass issues of availability, access and utilization (not merely production alone), and the nature of trade, food availability for consumption at household or individual level which again depends on market price and accessibility or capacity to purchase and utilize food security (schematically shown in Fig. 7.4). Climate change and increasing global food prices have accentuated and complicated ascertaining whether there will be enough food in the future to feed a growing world population. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report identified food insecurity as one of the key risks of climate change, potentially affecting all aspects of food security (ICIMOD 2014). Climate induced disasters (e.g., floods, droughts, cyclone, coastal surges and storms) are among the main drivers of food insecurity. However, global and regional market dynamics are very sensitive to climate induced extreme events which really govern regional and global food prices (Fig. 7.5). Food security issue is a fact of life for most of poor South Asian population where the climate already experiencing changes and most people have access to agricultural land, farming is carried out on small parcels of land excepts few cases in India and Pakistan (Wickramasinghe 2009). South Asia reported to be one of the most affected by climate induced extreme events like floods and droughts are projected to impact food security in the region. The effects of climate change are golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security Cropping systems Crop stand 127 Food systems Farming systems Crop productivity Crop production Food trade Climate change affects crop yields Food security Trade, supply, affordability and access define food security Fig. 7.4 Schematic diagram shows framework of food security issues and linkages among crop production, climate change and regional trades Availability Resources Production Natural Physical Human Food production Imports Market integration External and internal Climate induced risks Degraded natural resource base Productive environment lost Loss of productive assets Access Income Purchasing power Social safety nets Food subsidies Food-for-work Community support Market and entitlement risks Economic shocks Deteriorating terms of trade Collapse of safety nets Price hikes Utilization Consumption Household level distribution Dietary practices Nutrition knowledge Supplementary feeding Absorption Health Sanitation Safe water Food quality Nutrition and health risks Epidemics Erosion of social services Fig. 7.5 Schematic diagram shows climate change may impact regional trade and food security through its various components of a more complex system (Source: Adopted from FAO 2008) compounded here due to particular socio-economic scenarios of South Asia: high levels of poverty and high proportions of undernourished people, high dependence on local agricultural productivity and depleted and poorly managed natural resources, vulnerable supply lines and complicated logistics to external markets, and poor infrastructure. Nearly one fifth (17.6 %) South Asian population remains undernourished (FAO 2012). Ensuring food availability, regardless of whether the concern is about households or localities, would require a combination of three things: production, trade and assistance. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 128 7.8 Md.A. Syed Domestic Market Integration in the Countries of South Asia The issue of agricultural market integration is central to many contemporary debates on trade liberalization and price policy in the developing countries. One of the main arguments against agricultural trade liberalization is that the markets in these countries are not sufficiently integrated. Although there have been advances in the methodology of market integration analysis, majority of the earlier studies in the developing countries have used less-advanced methods like the bivariate correlation coefficients or methods that remove the common integrating factor from the analysis such as co-integration. The present exercise attempts to address this shortcoming by using a methodology that retains the common integrating factor (if any) and analyzes the extent (number of markets integrated) of integration among major markets for most of the important commodities in a country. The main objective of the study is to assess the potential role of market in mitigating adverse effects of supply shocks in the South Asian countries. At the conceptual level, there are essentially two strands of thought in market integration literature. In the first, mainly in the macroeconomics and international economics literature, market integration implies tradability i.e. transfers of excess demand from one market to another through actual or potential physical flows. Positive trade flows are sufficient to demonstrate that markets are integrated and prices need not equilibrate across markets. It is clear that this concept implies a Pareto inefficient distribution (Barrett 2001). For this reason, we have adopted the Enke-Samuelson-Takayama-Judge (ESTJ) spatial equilibrium model (Enke 1951; Samuelson 1995; Takayama and Judge 1971) as the theoretical framework in this exercise. In this framework, the dispersion of price in two locations for an otherwise identical good is bound from the above by cost of arbitrage when trade is unrestricted and, from below when trade quotas exist. We have used the Gonzalo-Granger (G-G) model to econometrically assess the extent of market integration. The technical details of the method are provided in the appendix at the end. To follow the analysis and discussion of the results, understanding the technical details is not necessary. In this model, a market is said to be integrated if there exists a single common factor (single linear combination of a subset of prices). This implies that if n markets are integrated there are n-1 co-integrating vectors. The empirical estimation of the model is also relatively simple. We can estimate the standard VECM model and then use those estimates to determine the number of common factors and also identify the specific markets influencing price formation (Gonzalez and Helfand 2001; Gonzalo and Granger 1995). For details see Gonzalo and Granger 1995; Gonzalez-Riviera and Helfand 2001 or Sekhar 2012). Standard VECM model of prices for each commodity has been estimated after controlling for general movements in prices and seasonality of agricultural prices. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 7.9 7.9.1 129 Recommendations Regional Cooperation and Integration Alleviation of poverty and attaining food security are important policy objectives of all the countries in the region. The paths followed in achieving these objectives are also broadly similar across countries, making it possible to identify areas of possible collaboration. The geographical proximity can also be a facilitating factor in such coordination. The promising areas of collaborative action, from the point of food security, are the following: • Collaborative agricultural research particularly on cereals, pulses and edible oilseeds • Coordination in devising pricing and trade policies to reap benefits of gains from trade (Johnson 1975). • Establishing common physical reserves for emergency relief and virtual reserves to ward off speculative attacks in commodity markets • Coordination and collaboration on improving health outcomes–IMR, CMR and undernourishment • Learning from success stories from other countries • Instituting Early Warning Systems on natural calamities • Judicious use of river waters 7.9.2 Collaborative Agricultural Research Our results show that the region does not possess adequate surplus particularly in wheat, edible oils and pulses. The production and productivity trends in the medium term (2001–2011) are not encouraging vis-à-vis consumption. Therefore, it is extremely important for these countries to rapidly increase domestic production. As the scope for area increases is limited (Fig. 1.2a), the production increases have to come through improvements in yield. The countries’ research systems need to collaborate to develop appropriate technology for the region. The National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS) in some of these countries, such as India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are fairly well developed. The cropping patterns in these countries are dominated by rice and wheat for which generic research would be useful. The contiguous regions on two sides of the border between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have similar agro-climatic-ecological conditions and collaborative efforts on crops and practices appropriate for these regions can benefit all the countries. Also, some of the countries in the region, such as India, have made significant advances in biotechnology, tissue culture, plant genetics etc. Other countries in the region can benefit from these advances. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 130 7.9.3 Md.A. Syed Address Knowledge Gaps There is still huge dearth understanding and knowledge about food production systems, their efficiency, resilience, and capacity to support ever growing population of South Asia. Policies and actions intended to improve food security in the region need to be based on correct information about the food systems in the region. There is currently a lack of adequate information about the basic elements of food security – availability, access, use, and stability– in the region. A comprehensive database on status and trends in order to prioritize areas, communities, and actions efficiently will be of great help in this regard. 7.9.4 Attracting Youth in Farming Almost 50 % of South Asian population is youth or below age. The demographic changes in the region shows that the farming population is already dominated by elders and fewer young people are engaged in traditional family farming. Different incentives, insurance, training along with some resource support and market linking programs for sustainable and climate-smart farming will encourage young people to maintain and develop family or small farming systems which in future can be the pillars in future sustainable food production for the region. 7.9.5 Coordination in Price and Trade Policies Our results show that domestic market integration is low in most of the countries, particularly in rice and wheat markets. There is a need to liberalize the domestic trade policy framework and improve transport infrastructure to ensure better integration of domestic markets in each country, which is a prerequisite for external (border) liberalization. Also, major countries like India, whose trade engagement with other South Asian neighbors is low at present, need to engage in more agricultural trade within the region. The borders between India, Bangladesh and Nepal are porous and therefore any effort to isolate the agricultural economies of these countries will only lead to distortions. These countries cannot pursue input or output price policies disregarding their implications across borders. A mechanism for regular consultation on price policies may needs to be devised. As for trade policy, these countries can mutually benefit by promoting preferential trade. 7.9.6 Establishing a Common Buffer Stock Research has shown that stocks have a crucial bearing on prices in the short run (Sekhar 2012). The SAARC Food Bank established as follow up of the decision of 14th SAARC Summit held in New Delhi in 2007 would supplement national efforts golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 131 to provide food security to the people of the region. As per this agreement, SAARC Food Bank shall have a reserve of food grains to be maintained by each member state consisting of either wheat or rice, or a combination of both as assessed share of the country. Initially the stocks held under the Food Bank were 243,000 tons. India has been making the highest contribution to the food bank with 153,200 tons (62 % of the total reserve) whereas Pakistan and Bangladesh are contributing 40,000 tons each (17 % each). Nepal and Sri Lanka contribute 4,000 tons each (2 %), followed by Afghanistan with 1,420 tons (0.6 %), Bhutan and the Maldives with 180 tons each (less than 0.1 %). Keeping in view the rising population and threat of natural disasters, SAARC countries have agreed to double the food reserve in SAARC Food Bank. The third meeting of the SAARC Food Board decided to increase existing stock of 243,000–486,000 tons across the SAARC region. India’s share of quantum of reserves has correspondingly been doubled from the existing 1,53,200–3,06,400 MTs. However, it needs to be noted here that despite several attempts in different parts of the world to institute regional food security programs, only few have been successful. The ASEAN Emergency Food Reserves arrangement is relatively successful but this success can be ascribed to two important conditions: increasing political cohesion and economic coordination among the member countries; and much greater complementarity in the food economy of ASEAN. There is a major food surplus country (Thailand) and a major food importing country (Malaysia). These conditions provide a strong ground for regional cooperation (Vyas 1990). In South Asia both these conditions are more or less absent. In the absence of any country with adequate food surpluses in the region, such an arrangement may be difficult to sustain. A second problem is the paucity of resources for grains procurement and storage. Notwithstanding these obstacles, attempts need to be made to develop regional reserves. There is increasing evidence that speculative attacks were also partly responsible for the food crisis witnessed in 2008. To avert such attacks, South Asia may also evolve a mechanism of information sharing on market situation and also a small fund to serve as virtual reserves to avert such attacks (IFPRI 2008). 7.9.7 Collaboration in Improving Health Status As our foregoing analysis has shown, the health and food consumption indicators in the South Asian region are way below the world average and are only marginally better than the Sub-Saharan Africa region. There is an urgent need to improve these outcomes. Even within the region, there is a lot of heterogeneity with countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Maldives showing much faster improvement than other large countries like India and Pakistan. A collaborative effort is needed to improve the health status, which along with its intrinsic importance, is also important for better absorption of the food consumed. India and Pakistan may benefit by exploring the possibility of replicating some of the successful practices followed in countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 132 7.9.8 Md.A. Syed Early Warning Systems South Asia shares many trans-boundary river basins with experiences of common flood, droughts and flash flood. This trans boundary nature of this disaster needs have influences in regional trades and commerce (Samuelson 1995). A regional data sharing on natural disasters and climate induced events would help in an early warning system based on regional needs. This can help in managing it regionally as well. 7.9.9 River Water Utilization Efficient and sustainable use of natural resources is of paramount importance in this resource-poor region. Proper and judicious use of river waters is the most important in this context. Major rivers in the region flow across national borders. The countries in the region – whether located at the head reach or tail end of the river, should be able to make the best use of these waters, which is possible only if the countries can work collaboratively on this important issue. There are some encouraging examples, such as, the Indo-Pak treaty on the Sindh river system and agreement on use of Ganga waters at Farraka, which can be emulated. There should be regular consultation and exchange of information among the water regulatory bodies of different countries. 7.10 Conclusions The economies of the region are predominantly driven by agriculture and still agriculture in major employer. The prospects for increasing agricultural production through area expansion are bleak in these countries. The percentage of area under cultivation is almost stagnant during the last two decades showing lack of scope for area expansion. The declining investment in agriculture, particularly the public investment, is reflected in almost stagnant percentage of area under irrigation. Presently export surplus exists in the region only for rice and to a limited extent for sugar. In wheat, corn, edible oils (except soybean oil) and pulses most of the countries in the region are facing deficits and very few countries in the region show export surplus present or potential. India and Pakistan are either just self-sufficient or possess slight export surplus in most commodities. Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan are facing deficits and rely on imports for most of the important commodities. Bangladesh shows encouraging trends in commodities such as rice, potato and similarly Sri Lanka intea. Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh export the most to other South Asian countries. On the side of imports also, these three countries along with Sri Lanka source their imports from within the region. India’s engagement, in terms of other countries’ share in India’s imports or exports, appears very low as compared to Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka. Results of market integration golam.rabbani@bcas.net 7 Regional Analysis, Import-Export and Related Issues on Food Security 133 show that integration of important cereal markets– rice and wheat is a cause for concern in most of the countries. Relatively, the rice markets (retail) are betterintegrated as compared to wheat markets. The per capita food availability is almost stagnant in the region as the growth rate of food production is just equal to that of the population growth. The levels of undernourishment are much higher and the consumption of calories, protein and fat in the region are much lower than the world average and only marginally better than the Sub-Saharan Africa. The growth rate of consumption is much below compared to Sub-Saharan Africa for calories and proteins, which is a cause for concern. India and Pakistan have shown poor performance in reducing infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and increasing life expectancy, which is a cause for concern. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives and have in general performed better in terms of health indicators. As regards poverty, one worrying feature is that the rate of decline in India is relatively much slower compared to other countries in the region. Given the current and potential supply-demand scenario of food commodities, extent of market integration, levels of poverty and health status in the countries of the region, the following are the potential areas of collaboration in the region from the point of food security. Collaborative agricultural research particularly on cereals, pulses and edible oilseeds to increase production in the region coordination in devising pricing and trade policies to reap benefits of gains from trade are needed. Collaboration on improving regional connectivity and transport and other infrastructure to enhance domestic and regional market integration is of utmost importance. Further cooperation and constant consultation and data sharing on common physical reserves for emergency relief and virtual reserves would help in ward off speculative attacks in commodity markets. Instituting Early Warning Systems on natural calamities and food shortage in the region is an imperative. References ASEAN Secretariat (2011a) ASEAN Integrated Food Security (AIFS) framework and strategic plan of action on food security in the ASEAN region (SPA-FS) 2009–2013. Available at http:// www.aseansec.org/22338.pdf. Accessed 20 Feb 2014 ASEAN Secretariat (2011b) The roundtable meeting on strengthening ASEAN food security information: rice information, 25 October 2011, Bangkok, Thailand Bandara J, Jayasuriya S (2009) Sri Lanka. In: Anderson K, Martin W (eds) Distortions to agricultural incentives in Asia. The World Bank, Washington, DC Barrett C (2001) Measuring integration and efficiency in international agricultural markets. Rev Agric Econ 23:19–32 Dayaratna-Banda OG, Jayawickrama JMA, Ranathilaka MB (2008) Sense and nonsense of rice price controls in Sri Lanka. Paper prepared for the Pathfinder Foundation, Colombo Enke S (1951) Equilibrium among spatially separated markets: solution by electrical analogue. Econometrica 19:40–47 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2008) Regional strategies and programme for food security in the SAARC member states. Final report, August. Prepared by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in collaboration with South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.A. Syed 134 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2011) Articulating and mainstreaming agricultural trade policy and support measures. In: Sharma R, Morrison J (eds) Trade and markets division. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2012) The state of food insecurity in the world undernourishment around the world in 2012. FAO, Rome Gonzalez-Riviera G, Helfand SM (2001) The extent, pattern and degree of market integration: a multivariate approach for the Brazilian rice market. Am J Agric Econ 83(3):576–592 Gonzalo J, Granger CWJ (1995) Estimation of common long memory components in cointegrated systems. J Bus Econ Stat 13(1):27–35 ICIMOD (2014) The last straw, food security in the Hindu Kush Himalayas and the additional burden of climate change. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu IFPRI (2008) Physical and virtual global food reserves to protect the poor and prevent market failure, Joachim von Braun and Maximo Torero, IFPRI Policy Brief 4, June 2008 Johnson, D. Gale 1975. World Agriculture, Commodity Policy, and Price Variability, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 57, December 1975, pp 823–28 Samuelson, P. 1995.Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming’, American Economic Review, 42, 283–303 Sekhar, C.S.C. 2012.Agricultural Market Integration in India: An Analysis of Select Commodities, Food Policy (Elsevier), Volume 37, Issue 3, June 2012, pp. 309–3220 Takayama T, Judge G (1971) Spatial and temporal price allocation models. North-Holland, Amsterdam Vyas VS (1990) Food policies and food security in Asia, with particular reference to South Asia. In: Tyagi DS, Vyas VS (eds) Increasing access to food – the Asian experiences. Sage, New Delhi Wickramasinghe U (2009) Trade insight, Food Security Agenda for South Asia, Causes and pathways out of food insecurity in South Asia 5(1):6–9 World Development Report (WDR)-Gender Equality and Development (2012) The international bank for reconstruction and development. The World Bank, Washington, DC. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-8810-5 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed Abstract Bangladesh Government initiated a consultative process of food security policy reform since the World Food Summit of 1996. Through this initiative the Government made a comprehensive food security policy framework such as National Food Policy and programming document called National Food Policy Plan of Action as well as an investment plan for food security known as Bangladesh Country Investment Plan. Several institutions in Bangladesh are involved with food security governance. To reflect the multidimensional nature of food security, various sectors and disciplines (ministries/department) are represented in these institutions. Four main bodies such as Food Planning and Monitoring Committee, Food Policy Working Group, Food Planning and Monitoring Unit, Thematic Teams are charged with formulating and implementing food security policies, in particular the National Food Policy and its associated Plan of Action. There is lot of success due to policy issues of food in Bangladesh, however, more specific policy issues need to be incorporated in the design of the different policy documents such as an enabling policy for fostering education both at a higher level for research purposes and a professional level for extension workers. In addition, there should be easy access on land, water resources and credit facilities for small and marginal farmers. Moreover, the need for a more effective and better governed regulatory and quality control of inputs to protect smallholders and enable them to invest in improved techniques and inputs. The need to improve the nutrition outcome safety nets, extension activities and others are essential to optimize their impact to ensure the food security of the country. The difficult enforcement of some existing regulations and rules should be addressed through empowering and disseminating information to communities and grass-root level actors. Coordination of food security including food production, safety nets and nutrition will be a challenge, in particular as it has to be inclusive of non-government sectors and development partners. Keywords National Food Policy (NFP) • National Food Policy Plan of Action • Country Investment Plan • Ministry of Food • Food Planning and Monitoring Unit F.R.S. Ahmed (*) Deputy Secretary, Ministry of Public Administration, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: frsa1962@yahoo.co.uk © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_8 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 135 136 8.1 F.R.S. Ahmed Introduction The Government of Bangladesh considers agricultural development a major priority for ensuring the food and nutrition security of the country. While Bangladesh has experienced steady advances in food availability and security, including the tripling of its annual rice production during the past several decades, by overcoming a number of persistent and emerging challenges (Ahmed et al. 2011). Future agricultural growth and food and nutrition security are threatened by population growth, decreasing soil fertility and health, deteriorating access to limited and scarce natural resources, increasing pest and disease infestation and persistent poverty leading to poor access to food (Asaduzzaman et al. 2010). In addition, the impacts of climate change such as increase in the incidence of natural disasters, salinity intrusion, erratic behavior of rainfall and climatic events may exacerbate food and nutrition insecurity in the coming decades (BCCSAP 2009). Food plays a crucial role in the agro-based economy of Bangladesh, where a large proportion of the income of the population is allocated to food. The first and foremost responsibility of the State is to ensure an uninterrupted supply of food to all people at all time. According to the Article-15(a) of the constitution of Bangladesh, it shall be a fundamental responsibility of the State to secure its citizens to the provision of basic necessities of food. As per Government’s Allocation of Business, it is the duty of ‘Ministry of Food’ to establish a dependable food security system for the nation. The Government of Bangladesh is firmly committed to achieve food security for all, defined at the 1996 World Food Summit as: access by all people at all times to the food needed for an active and healthy life. This provision is also reflected in all the development plans including sixth five year plan of the Government (Ahmed et al. 2010). Bangladesh is also a signatory of GATT Uruguay Round Agreement in 1994 at which, among other issues, agricultural trade liberalizations was agreed. Following the recommendation of the Bangladesh Development Forum, the process of consolidating the country’s food security program at a larger scale was started in 2000 through a task force document entitled “A Comprehensive Food Security Policy for Bangladesh”. Meanwhile a high priority was given to further strengthen and harmonize government’s efforts to ensure food security for all. It was achieved through revisiting all existing related policies and strategies. The goal of the first national food policy, which was adopted in 1988, was to achieve food security for all people by increasing food production and attaining self-sufficiency. However, many important aspects of food security remained unattended in the food policy of 1988 which was based on availability of food grain alone. The present food policy was developed in the light of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and also in a broader perspective according to the definition of food security as adopted in the World Food Summit (NFP 2006). The Government of Bangladesh, in accordance with the World Food Summit Declaration of 1996 has set its target at reducing the number of poor people to half by the year 2015. Achieving this target will require addressing all aspects of food golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 137 security: (i) greater efficiency of domestic agriculture and enhanced availability of food, (ii) assistance to attain increased food access by the food insecure, (iii) sustained increase in the incomes of the poor and the distressed to enhance their access to food, (iv) adequate supply of safe food, and (v) appropriate programs to reduce malnutrition through increased effectiveness and proper utilization of the consumed food. To ensure overall food security and to implement national food policy 2006, the Ministry of Food is implementing its own programs; in addition, it is trying to ensure and extend all out support to all concerned ministries and agencies in implementing their own food-security related strategies and programs such as National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008–2015) and country investment plan for agriculture, food security and nutrition in Bangladesh. In this way, government of Bangladesh is trying to attain food security through a coordinated implementation of the programs of all concerned ministries and agencies (NFP 2006). 8.2 Ministry of Food Ministry of food is responsible for making all kinds of policy framework linked with food security. Vision of the ministry is to ensure a dependable food security system for all people of the country at all times and its mission is to ensure adequate and stable supply of safe and nutritious food, enhance purchasing power of the people for increased food accessibility. According to the ‘Allocation of Business’ the key functions of the ministry is formulation, review and execution of legislation, policies, plans, procedures, standing orders and guidelines relating to overall food system, food policy; Establishment of a dependable national food security system; Procurement, storage and movement of food-grains etc. in order to maintain an adequate public food grain stock for national food security as well as for distribution through Public Food Distribution System (PFDS) as price incentive for domestic production and price support for consumers; Inspection, analysis and maintenance of quality and standards of food grains imported or exported by this Ministry; Stabilization of the price of food-grains; Encourage food-grains trade in the private sector; Recommend development of market infrastructure, such as storage, transportation handling and marketing facilities to encourage and support private sector food grains trade; Maintaining database on food production, food availability, food accessibility, consumption pattern, food stock and food reserve and establishing inventory control and food management information system; Food planning research and monitoring; Import and export of food stuff and civil supplies; Administration of proposed Food Safety Act, 2013; Monitoring of food supply positions in the country; Rationing; Construction and maintenance of food godowns; Liaison with regional and international organizations, and matters related to treaties and agreements with other countries and world bodies. Since 2012, Ministry of Food has been working as an independent ministry headed by a Minister. Secretary of the ministry is functioning as Principal accounting golam.rabbani@bcas.net F.R.S. Ahmed 138 Officer of the ministry and also official head of the Ministry. Ministry of Food is the sole body to formulate and execute overall food policy management of Bangladesh. Directorate General of Food is the only core department under Ministry of Food and sole implementing body, working directly under guidance and supervision of the ministry. Director General of Food is the head of the department (NFP 2006). 8.3 Food Security Policy and Planning Frameworks Since the World Food Summit of 1996, the Government of Bangladesh has undertaken an in-depth and consultative process of food security policy reform. This has provided the Government with a comprehensive food security policy framework “the National Food Policy – 2006” and programming document “the National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008–2015)” as well as an investment plan for food security and nutrition “the Bangladesh Country Investment Plan”. 8.3.1 The National Food Policy, 2006 (NFP 2006) The National Food Policy of 2006 is Bangladesh’s main policy document on food security. It is a comprehensive and integrated approach to food security, including the availability, access and utilization dimension of food security. The NFP framework is articulated around three core objectives/outcomes and 12 more specific objectives/strategic lines of action. They are as follows Objective 1: Adequate and Stable Supply of Safe and Nutritious Food • Efficient and sustainable increase in food production • Efficient food markets • Non-distortionary food grain market intervention for price stabilization Objective 2: Increased Purchasing Power and Access to Food of the People • Transitory shock management • Effective implementation of targeted food assistance program • Employment generating income growth Objective 3: Adequate Nutrition for All Individuals, Especially Women and Children • • • • • • Long-term national plan for ensuring balanced food in building a healthy nation Supply of sufficient nutritious food for vulnerable groups Balanced diet containing adequate micronutrients Safe drinking water and improved sanitation Safe quality food supply Adequate health status golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 8.3.2 139 Focus and Design The National Food Policy emphasizes the important linkages between availability, access, and nutrition outcomes, in line with the definition of food security adopted by the World Food Summit of 1996. It also recognizes that a combination of measures is needed to effectively reduce hunger and malnutrition, e.g. providing immediate access to food to the most vulnerable and promoting agricultural development and income growth. The Policy addresses food security issue in a comprehensive manner and to fill the gaps of previous food and nutrition policy frameworks. The goal of the National Food Policy is to ensure, in coordination with partner ministries, development partners and NGOs, dependable and sustained food security for all people of Bangladesh at all times. NFP, 2006 represents a follow-up to the National Food Policy of 1988, the goal of which was to ensure food security for all people by increasing food production and attaining self-sufficiency. The focus was therefore nearly exclusively on maintaining a balance between aggregate supply and total requirements, overlooking the other key facets of food security. The National Food and Nutrition Policy formulated in 1997 by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare was a first attempt to address this shortcoming by including food diversification, health and nutrition as key areas of intervention for the national food security system. 8.3.3 Thrusts and Priorities of NFP The NFP has been developed with special reference to the Bangladesh Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) titled “Unlocking the Potential: National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction” (General Economics Division 2005), which was adopted in 2005 as the main umbrella framework for guiding and coordinating medium-term efforts towards reducing poverty and achieving the MDGs. Food security is identified as a key goal under PRSP strategic block on “Critical sectors for pro-poor economic growth”. Under this block, the PRSP also underscores strengthening and consolidating on-going nutrition and fortification efforts. Nutrition concerns are addressed more comprehensively under the health sector strategy. The PRSP also gives prominence to the issues related to food safety, food quality, healthcare, and safe water and sanitation for all, with special emphasis on children’s needs. As regards food availability and access dimensions, the policy thrust of the PRSP is on ensuring affordable food supply through efficiency gains in agricultural production, distribution and trade as well as enhancing the purchasing power of the poor, through diversifying and expanding income opportunities at large. PRSP prioritizes technology development and the creation of an enabling environment for private sector participation along with efforts to improve coverage and effectiveness of social safety nets. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 140 F.R.S. Ahmed Food price stabilization policies have been, nonetheless incorporated under PRSP Food Security Policy Matrix 8, which provides a basic roadmap for improving security, along the strategic lines defined in the Comprehensive Food Security Report (July 2000). This includes creating an enabling framework for food security, assuring low cost food supply, smoothing fluctuations in food consumption, increasing purchasing power and entitlement of the poor, ensuring better food utilization and more nutritious food for all, particularly the poor. In the long run, the NFP underscores: (i) Linking agricultural productivity and diversification with improvements of nutritional standards through a three-pronged approach: raising productivity and efficiency of production for major cereals, diversifying into non-cereal crops, including pulses, oilseeds and higher value horticultural crops such as fruits, vegetables, spices as well as expanding fishery, livestock and poultry production. (ii) Improving productivity of smallholder agriculture, especially through enhancing access of small and marginal farmers to improved, demand-driven extension services, as well as irrigation, credit, and modern inputs. (iii) Promoting sustainable agriculture practices with focus on expanding Integrated Pest Management, use of bio-fertilizers, water conservation, soil and water testing, greater use of surface water along with technological development to minimize salinity. (iv) Promoting efficient food markets with focus on physical infrastructure development, marketing infrastructure; and the creation of an enabling regulatory environment. (v) Promoting non-farm activities that exhibit strong “agricultural linkages”, i.e. agro-based/agro-processing industries. (vi) Expanding income generating opportunities for women/female-headed households and the disabled in agricultural activities as well as in rural micro and small enterprise development, through enhancing their access to productive assets. (vii) Fostering skill and human development with focus on employability (marketdriven skill development) (viii) Addressing instability inherent to agricultural and other rural activities through strengthening disaster preparedness, improving early warning/monitoring systems for effective food planning, stock and trade management as well as introducing risk management tools for small farmers and rural micro-entrepreneurs. (ix) Managing food price instability to preserve poor farmers’ incentives and the purchasing power of poor consumers. Whilst underscoring the role for the private sector in food security efforts, the NFP provides for timely price stabilization interventions and consumer price support along with an adequate management of private food imports. (x) Addressing immediate food security needs among all vulnerable groups and areas by improving the targeting, coverage and effectiveness of food based and non-food based targeted programs and other safety nets. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 141 NFP also emphasizes: (xi) Reducing malnutrition through integrated and multi-sectoral set of general and targeted interventions, geared towards raising consumption of nutrientrich foods especially among vulnerable groups, promoting positive food habits and appropriate food behaviour, promoting and protecting breast feeding, improving infant and young child feeding practices and health, improving food safety and hygiene, sanitation, improving access to safe drinking water as well as addressing the threat of arsenic contamination of underground water and improving overall access and coverage of women and children to sanitation and health facilities. Acknowledging that women’s lack of knowledge about right nutrition and child care strongly correlates with their educational levels, the NFP also emphasizes strategies to support maternal education and literacy as of paramount importance to ensuring good nutrition (FPMU 2008). 8.3.4 The NFP and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Bangladesh has made remarkable progress towards reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, with indicators showing that Bangladesh is “on track” to reach 100 % enrolment rates and gender equality in primary and secondary education and in significantly reducing child and maternal mortality. Evidence suggests that food security and nutritional well being improves human potential, and reduces poverty by boosting productivity throughout the life cycle and across generations. Thus, the NFP agenda on sustainable and pro-poor agricultural and rural development, food diversification, women and vulnerable groups’ empowerment, skill development, sanitation, health and nutrition, is forcefully supportive of the overarching Millennium Development Goal on poverty and food security (MDG1), and will clearly underlie progress towards many other Millennium Development Goals. In particular, efforts to improve smallholder agricultural productivity, strengthen agricultural linkages within the rural economy will have direct impacts on the incomes of the rural poor, whilst increased and more diversified food production shall contribute to better diets and improvements of nutritional outcomes. The NFP agenda on enhancing rural women’s participation in agricultural activities, promoting women’s entrepreneurship, is fully aligned with MDG3 (Promote gender equality and empower women). Meanwhile, women and children represent the key target groups of the overall NFP policy agenda on nutrition and utilization of food, which, coupled to food diversification and income-generation efforts, will be clearly instrumental for improving maternal health (MDG5), and reducing child mortality (MDG4). Poor nutrition is implicated in more than half of all child deaths worldwide and is intimately linked with poor health and environmental factors. Targeting nutrition improvement actions for children particularly in the first year of golam.rabbani@bcas.net F.R.S. Ahmed 142 life is strategically important because malnutrition in infancy is the genesis of malnutrition in pre-school age and is also directly or indirectly associated with most child deaths. Also, efforts to enhance aggregate food supply and access coupled to more specific measures for empowering women and households, improving maternal and child health and nutrition, shall together contribute to improving the chances that a child will go to school, stay in school and perform, thereby supporting progress towards MDG2 (Achieve universal primary education). Finally, in line with MDG7 (Ensure environmental sustainability), environmental sustainability has been effectively mainstreamed into the NFP agricultural policy agenda for enhancing food supply and also biodiversity (http://www.nfpcsp. org/agridrupal/national-food-policy). 8.4 The National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008–2015) To provide programmatic guidance in implementing the National Food Policy, the Government formulated the National Food Policy Plan of Action (PoA). The PoA translates the provisions of the NFP towards achieving its three core objectives into 26 strategic areas of intervention and priority actions that cover all dimensions of food security. The Plan, which is in line with the Millennium Development Goals, for over the period of 2008–2015. Apart from providing immediate access to food to the most vulnerable households through targeted cash and food transfers, the Plan also includes actions aimed at developing production capacity, income generation and nutrition through investments and accompanying policy measures. That means the Plan of Action adopts diversified approaches to hunger reduction. The Plan of Action is a dynamic document that is adjusted based on the results of monitoring activities, the experiences gained in the process of its implementation as well as possible changes in the key factors impacting on the development prospects of Bangladesh. To facilitate implementation and monitoring, the Plan of Action also identifies responsible actors from both government and non-government and suggests a set of policy targets and indicators to monitor progress. The document provides a set of guidelines regarding inter-ministerial coordination, sectoral planning and budgeting and includes an outline of the strategy for monitoring progress. Special care was given to align the PoA with Bangladesh’s overall development strategy, thus making it a suitable instrument to align donors’ interventions with government priorities. The Plan establishes collaborative relationships with other monitoring initiatives and sources of information related to food security, especially those linked to the PRSP, the Sixth Five-Year Plan and the MDGs. In line with the log-frame approach, the action agenda set forth under the 26 strategic areas of intervention identified in the PoA is linked with specific policy targets and performance indicators, as well as a set of assumptions regarding factors that may affect implementation effectiveness. The PoA Matrix thereby provides the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 143 basic framework for implementing, coordinating and monitoring of the NFP. Under the three objectives of NFP, PoA identified 26 areas of intervention (such as agricultural research and extension, use and management of water resources, supply and sustainable use of agricultural inputs, agricultural diversification, agricultural credit and insurance, physical market infrastructure development, agricultural marketing and trade, policy/regulatory environment, early warning system development, producer prize support, public stock management/prize stabilization, agricultural disaster management, emergency food distribution for public stock, enabling environment for private food trade and stock, effectiveness of targeted food security programs and other safety nets, income generation for woman and the disabled, agro-based/ agro processing/MSMEs development, market driven education skills and human development, long term planning for balanced food, balanced and nutritious food for vulnerable people, nutrition education on dietary diversification, food supplementation and fortification, safe drinking water and improved sanitation, safe, quality food supply, woman and children health) and priorities of action and responsible ministries. The PoA underscores coordinating with fellow implementing partners and agencies from the Civil Society and the private Sector, as well as Development Partners. In particular, it underscores the role of the Economic Relation Division of the Ministry of Finance in promoting the effective implementation of the PoA, through coordinating and ensuring linkages between PRSP-related external assistance and PoA external assistance requirements. The PoA document also underscores establishing effective linkages between the PoA targets/action agenda and line ministries/agencies’ strategic plans and related budgetary frameworks, as well as with central planning and budgetary processes under the Annual Development Program and the Medium Term Budget Framework (MTBF). It also recommends overseeing of the above process by the Planning Commission of the Ministry of Planning and the Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance. 8.4.1 Monitoring Strategy Outline The institutional monitoring strategy outlined in the PoA provides for developing and implementing monitoring plan towards PoA policy targets and outcomes, including data gathering, data analysis, organization of stakeholder consultations, delivery and dissemination of monitoring reports and other outputs. It also underscores establishing collaborative relationships with other food-security relevant monitoring initiatives and/or sources of information, especially those relating to the monitoring of the PRSP and the MDGs, including the National Poverty Focal Point under the General Economics Division and the Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation Division of the Ministry of Planning, as well as the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 144 F.R.S. Ahmed The document underscores continuous political commitment towards food security and poverty reduction, adequate implementation and coordination capacities, enabling macro-economic and fiscal framework, including domestic and external resource mobilization, continuous progress on PRSP agenda for local governance, as key assumptions underpinning the effective implementation of the NFP and its PoA. 8.5 The Bangladesh Country Investment Plan (CIP) In June 2010 the Government of Bangladesh released the Country Investment Plan to support the implementation of the National Food Policy and its Plan of Action. The Country Investment Plan covers a 5-year period, is anchored in the existing national framework and benefits from the Government’s strong political support. Specifically, its purpose is to plan and invest resources that address the three dimensions of food security in a coordinated way; increase the convergence of Government investment and external funding in order to avoid gaps and redundancies; mobilize additional funds, including from external sources; monitor, evaluate and if necessary remedy investments in agriculture, food security and nutrition. The updated version of CIP was released on June 2011. CIP is a country led planning, fund mobilization and alignment tool. It supports increased, effective pubic investment to increase and diversify food availability in a sustainable manner and improve access to food and nutrition security. Its interventions also aim to mobilize investment by smallholders other private sector food security actors. It is a comprehensive plan that aims to ensure sustainable food security. The CIP anchored in the policy, programmatic and financial framework of Bangladesh (i) it is the investment arm of the National Food Policy (NFP 2006) and its Plan of Action (PoA 2008); (ii) it reflects the food security content of the sixth five Year Plan; (iii) it is a strong advocacy financial tool for increased resource allocation from the budget and Development Partners. The CIP is a living document its updated version was developed through a wide process of consultation including government agencies, private sector, farmers, academics, civil society, NGOs and Development Partners. This process led to refined more accurately costed and prioritized CIP investment areas, the establishment of a results framework, guiding principles to be applied during implementation and the identification of policy implications to enable optimal effectiveness of interventions. The CIP provides a coherent set of 12 priority investment programs to improve food security and nutrition in an integrated way. The total cost of the CIP is estimated at US$ 7.8 billion. Of this, US$ 2.8 billion are already financed through allocated GOB budget resources and contributions by development Partners (DPs). The financing gap is therefore US$ 5.1 billion of which US$ 3.4 billion has been identified as first priority requirements (Bangladesh Country Investment Plan 2011). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 8.5.1 145 Purposes of the CIP The CIP provides a strategic and coherent set of 12 priority investment programs to improve food and nutrition security in an integrated way. The CIP builds on the existing solid national food security policy and programmatic framework. The CIP is comprehensive in that it addresses the three dimensions of food security – availability, access and nutrition – in an integrated way. It aims at linking these three dimensions, in particular by shaping food availability proposals (mostly related to agriculture) so that they enhance access and improve nutrition of the most food insecure and malnourished. However, it limits its scope by building on past and ongoing investment operations and actions, identifying gaps and needs for scaling up and extension, and incorporates the current national priorities expressed by various stakeholders, including the Government agencies, civil society organizations, NGOs, the private sector and Bangladeshi farmers themselves. The CIP is expected to serve four purposes: • To plan and invest resources in a coordinated way, addressing the three dimensions of food security through an integrated approach; • To increase convergence of domestic and external sources of funding in support of agriculture, food security and nutrition. This requires a progressive alignment of external sources of funds (from bilateral and multilateral donors) behind a single, inclusive (but evolving) investment plan in order to increase cohesion, coordination and avoid gaps and redundancies; • To mobilize additional resources from the Government of Bangladesh budget and from external partners, and to monitor commitments, pledges, expenses and remaining gaps; • To monitor and evaluate investments in food security and prescribe remedial measures to activities that requires strengthening (Bangladesh Country Investment Plan 2011). 8.5.2 CIP Follows the Existing National Framework The CIP relies on the existing Government framework in its three dimensions: (i) policy/institutional; (ii) planning / programmatic; (iii) financial and resource mobilization. The CIP builds on the very solid existing policies, strategies and plans in support of food security in Bangladesh. In particular, the CIP aims to support implementation of the National Food Policy (NFP 2006) through a set of investment programs that reflect key gaps identified by the Government and other stakeholders, and their priorities to achieve the goals of the NFP. In other words, the CIP is the investment arm of the NFP PoA. The NFP and CIP build on key sectoral policy documents, such as the National Seed Policy, Flood Action Plan, National Extension Policy, National Water Policy (1999), Food and Nutrition Policy (1997), National Plan of Action for Nutrition golam.rabbani@bcas.net F.R.S. Ahmed 146 (1997) the Livestock Sector Road Map (2006), the Fisheries Sector Road Map (2006), and the National Disaster Management Plan (2007–2015). The NFP and CIP are consistent with the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2009). The institutional, coordination and monitoring framework of the CIP is embedded in the existing framework of the NFP PoA. Monitoring activities relied on the monitoring system currently in place as part of the national planning process. The CIP also draws upon: (i) the Vision 2021 and the associated Perspective Plan 2010– 2021 of the Government, which provides the long-term vision of the current Government; (ii) the election manifesto of the Government and relevant constitutional provisions. 8.5.3 Programmatic/Planning Mechanisms The CIP is aligned with the Sixth Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2011–2015), a key planning document of the Government. The FYP outlines priority development interventions for Bangladesh. It holds that “strong agriculture remains fundamental to poverty reduction as well as food security.” There is also broad support for safety nets that will ensure access to as well as The CIP also relies on the planning process set up by the Government to plan annual investment expenses. The Annual Development Program (ADP) was used to identify and cost investment areas and programs. Further, the CIP was developed in close link with the Planning Commission. Utilization of the enhanced availability resulting from strengthened agriculture. The CIP approach is in line with the FYP’s holistic approach to food security. Throughout the process of the FYP, inputs have been taken from the CIP in order to ensure further coherence. 8.5.4 Finance and Resource Mobilization The CIP draws from the National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction II (December 2009). Additionally, the aim of the CIP is to be integrated in to the Medium Term Budgetary Framework which reflects the investment priorities of the Government of Bangladesh. The first CIP-2010 was used as a tool to develop the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) as a living mechanism for alignment of DPs with the Bangladeshi priority requirements outlined in the CIP. The CPF, can now be used by the Government to mobilize additional resources from the DP community. To date, 8 DPs have signed the CPF. Finally, the CIP was developed with the close involvement of the Ministry of Finance, including its finance division for budget resource mobilization and the Economic Relations Division (ERD) in view of its central role for resource mobilization with DPs. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 8.5.5 147 Guiding Principles The CIP guiding principles define how the Government of Bangladesh and the stakeholders involved in the Bangladesh food system will work together to achieve the CIP food and nutrition security outcomes by 2015. The guiding principles such as Policy and institutional coherence, Comprehensiveness and nutrition agenda, Inclusiveness and participation, Targeting and Gender Considerations, Particular attention should be paid to the Southern part of Bangladesh, Innovation and scaling up, Partnership, Sustainability, with a particular focus on the environment have emerged from the CIP consultation process and have been incorporated during the CIP design process. They shall be systematically applied in the implementation stage. 8.5.6 CIP Programs This Chapter highlights the main features of the 12 CIP programs. Programs 1–5 contribute to the food availability component. Programs 6–9 contribute to the food access component. Programs 10–12 contribute to the food utilization component. Table 8.1 summarizes the focused and priority interventions of the 12 CIP programs (Bangladesh Country Investment Plan 2011). 8.6 Food Security Institutional Setup Food security is governed by several institutions in Bangladesh. In order to reflect the multidimensional nature of food security, various sectors and disciplines are represented in these institutions, including agriculture, rural development, women and children affairs, health, finance, commerce and disaster management. Four main bodies are charged with formulating and implementing food security policies, in particular the National Food Policy and its associated Plan of Action: Food Planning and Monitoring Committee, a cabinet-level committee that provides overall leadership and oversight in the formulation of food security policies. The Food Planning and Monitoring Committee (FPMC) is a cabinet-level committee headed by the Minister of Food. Drawing on the work of the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit, it provides overall leadership and oversight in the formulation of food security policies. Along with four other ministers minister of food is the chair of the committee, seven other secretaries are the members of that committee and DG FPMU are the member secretary of that committee. Food Policy Working Group, an inter-ministerial coordination mechanism that facilitates cross-sectoral participation in the implementation of the National Food Policy and its associated Plan of Action. The Food Policy Working Group golam.rabbani@bcas.net 148 Table 8.1 Priority interventions of Bangladesh Country Investment Plan (CIP) golam.rabbani@bcas.net Program title Sustainable and diversified agriculture through integrated research and extension 2 Improved water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes 3 Improved quality of input and soil fertility 4 Fisheries and aquaculture development 5 Livestock development, with a focus on poultry and dairy production Proposed focus and priority interventions Enhance research and knowledge generation and adoption to increase agricultural productivity and diversity in a sustainable manner Improve extension services to propagate knowledge and practices, supported by community based experiments and learning and indigenous knowledge Promote the development of responses to adapt agricultural systems to climate change Improve water management in water distribution systems and at farm level Improve and increase efficiency of surface water irrigation, in particularly the south Reduce impact of saline water intrusion in the south Facilitate access to credit and other financial services by smallholders and the rural poor Enhance availability of agricultural inputs, tested and certified for quality of diversified crops Develop public private partnerships in support of infrastructure and services development Improve and increase sustainability of soil fertility management Facilitate access to credit and other financial services by smallholders and the rural poor Develop small scale agriculture, through access to quality inputs, advice and skills Improve management of fisheries resources Develop public private partnerships in support of infrastructure and services development Promote production in the South through sustainable shrimp and prawn development and community based co management of wetlands Strengthen animal health services, including better diagnosis and surveillance systems to mitigate disease outbreaks Strengthen husbandry capacity at household level through community based improved knowledge and advisory services Improve availability and quality of inputs through public private ownerships Research on livestock development, including genetic improvement F.R.S. Ahmed No Component 1 Food availability 7 Strengthened capacities for implementation and monitoring of NFP and CIP actions 8 Enhanced public food management systems 9 Institutional development and capacity development for more effective safety nets 10 Food utilization Community based nutrition programs and services Orient food and nutrition program through data 12 Food safety and quality improvement 149 11 Proposed focus and priority interventions Improve physical access to markets, facilities and information Mobilize and promote producer and marketing groups for improved market access and knowledge Develop adequate storage, processing and value addition and reduce waste through public-private partnerships Promote and assist the development of off farm activities and rural businesses Strengthen capacities to implement, monitor and coordinate National Food Policy –Plan of Action and CIP Strengthen national capacities for design, implementation and monitoring of CIP operations Strengthen capacities of civil society organizations to contribute to CIP development and implementation Enhance efficiency and effectiveness of public food management systems and improve its impact on price stabilization Build capacities of Ministry of Food and Disaster Management and Directorate of Food to better manage the food system Increase and modernize public storage and handling facilities, including in disaster prone areas Strengthen institutional capacities to effectively to effectively operate social safety net programs and formulate a new integrated strategy for social safety net programs to : (i) coordinate and streamline them; (ii) enhance impact and targeting; (iii) improve governance Investment in employment and income generation of social safety nets (including in ADP) Community based nutrition programs, building on and linking to the National Nutrition Service (NNS) Support community based efforts of homestead gardening, rearing livestock, aquaculture and awareness building for improved nutrition Link long term strategies and immediate treatment of acute malnutrition, in particular through therapeutic and supplementary feeding Undertake updated and comprehensive national service of food consumption and food composition Undertake study of dietary, diversification and supplementation needs and develop advocacy, awareness and educational materials to facilitate behavioral change in eating habit and practices Strengthen national capacities in surveying and analysis to facilitate evidence based decisions Improve surveillance system of food borne illnesses Develop and enhance capacities of laboratories and systems for food quality assurance and safety control of food Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security Program title Improved access to markets, value-addition in agriculture and to non farm incomes 8 golam.rabbani@bcas.net No Component 6 Food access 150 F.R.S. Ahmed (FPWG) is an inter-ministerial coordination mechanism to support the Food Planning and Monitoring Committee. It focuses on strategic issues related to food security, and coordinates the work of the Thematic Teams and cross-cutting issues of food security. Along with 13 other members DG FPMU is the member secretary of that committee. Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), a Government unit under the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management that acts as a secretariat of the Food Policy Monitoring Committee. The Food Planning and Monitoring Unit of the Ministry of Food is the Government unit responsible for monitoring the food security situation in Bangladesh and the implementation of related policies. Activities include collecting, storing and disseminating information for food security analysis and policy formulation, and delivering evidence-based policy advice to the Government on issues relevant to food security – on its own initiative or on demand by the Government of Bangladesh. The Unit provides secretarial support to the Food Planning and Monitoring Committee (FPMC) and contributes to other Government committees relevant to food security, such as the Early Warning Technical Committee or the Safety Net Technical Committee. As the lead agency on food security issues in Bangladesh, FPMU is also responsible for enhancing inter-ministerial collaboration for the implementation of the National Food Policy and monitoring its Plan of Action. The agency also has a pivotal role in coordinating, monitoring and evaluating interventions under the Country Investment Plan. Activities of FPMU are divided into four directorates, three of which representing one specific dimension of food security (availability, access and utilization) plus one that facilitates information exchange between FPMU and data providers: • Directorate of Food Availability, dealing with all issues related to the domestic supply component of the availability dimension of food security. It includes two services: (i) domestic production; and (ii) early warning and agricultural sustainability • Directorate of Food Access, dealing with the physical, economic and social access dimensions of food security. It includes two services: (i) physical and economic access; and (ii) social access • Directorate of Food Utilization, dealing with all issues related to the food utilization dimension of food security. It includes one service on food utilization and nutrition • Directorate of Management, Information and Communication, dealing with all functions that need to be centralized for the overall operation of FPMU (e.g. cooperation with Development Partners). It includes one service on management, information and communication. For a more efficient, integrated and analytical support to the FPMC, the agency has established an inter-ministerial coordination mechanism through a Food Policy Working Group and Thematic Teams. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 151 Thematic Teams – specialized inter-ministerial bodies led by the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit that focus on each dimension of food security and facilitate cross-sectoral collaboration. Thematic Teams are specialized inter-ministerial bodies led by each Directorate of the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit. They are thus organized according to the three dimensions of food security (availability, access and utilization), plus one team that facilitates information exchange between FPMU and data providers. Currently four Thematic Teams are working with the 6–7 members in each team, the teams are thematic Team A: Food Availability; Thematic Team B: Food Access; Thematic Team C: Food Utilization; Thematic Team D: Data Exchange. 8.7 Conclusion Bangladesh has made substantial progress in enhancing food security by increasing production of food grains, particularly rice, improving infrastructure, making food delivery to the poor more efficient and liberalizing agricultural input and output markets. Rice has contributed most to self-sufficiency in food grain, currently accounting for 71 % of the gross cropped area and for 94 % of the food grain production (BBS 2012). Rice production gains have been mainly driven by an increased use of irrigation water, expanded use of other agricultural inputs along with an increased coverage of high-yielding and modern rice varieties. However, the sustainability of domestic food grain production remains an issue. Rice cannot be expected to experience the growth rate of the past without net technological breakthrough. Furthermore, demographic pressures and increased urbanization have caused cultivated area to decline at a rate of 1 % per year, whilst cropping intensity has virtually reached its limit. Landholdings are small and scattered, and food grains continue, to a large extent, to be cultivated for subsistence. Small and marginal farmers represent 80 % of all farmers. Only a limited percentage of crops circulate through commercial channels. This also results in a situation where, despite efforts, food grain procurement remains prone to wide fluctuations and sizeable food grain imports are needed. In the last 5 years, total annual imports of food grains have ranged between 2 and 3 million tons. Imports consist mainly of wheat, whose production has been continuously reducing over the past years, with rice accounting for about half million tons per year. Also, the emphasis placed on rice production has resulted in an increased dependency on imports for non food grain commodities, such as pulses, oilseeds and fruits which remain unaffordable to many consumers, especially poor consumers. For instance, 70 % of the pulses and 66 % of the edible oil requirements are currently imported (Mishra and Hossain 2005). Traditionally, the two most important non-cereal foods for the poor were fish and pulses. Due to crop substitution, the national supply of pulses decreased substantially, and the poor substituted cereals golam.rabbani@bcas.net 152 F.R.S. Ahmed for pulses with negative nutritional implications especially for children, pregnant and lactating women. Furthermore, rice monocropping causes the nutrient depletion of the soil. Arsenic contamination has become a major concern for both agricultural sustainability and food safety (Heikens et al. 2007). Climate change poses an additional burden on food security, especially in areas where agriculture and water resources are already under stress due to adverse meteorological conditions and erratic behavior of climatic factors (BCCSAP 2009). In this context, strengthened efforts to raise productivity and efficiency in food grain production, to support agricultural commercialization and diversification, in due consideration of environmental impacts, will be paramount. Actions are needed on many fronts, including agricultural technology development, input (seeds, fertilizers, irrigation, machinery) supply and access expansion, and, critically, rural financing, which currently stands far below rural producers’ needs, especially those of small and marginal farmers. Renewed diversification efforts need to be backedup by clear understanding of the relative profitability of competing crops, physical and location-specific conditions for non-crop enterprises, the supply chain of high value products and provision for processing, storage and marketing activities, as well as by a clear appraisal of international trade opportunities. Still, many poor and vulnerable households, whether food producers or not, do not have food security because they are unable to afford a minimum basket of food items through their own food production, cash income, market purchases and other resources necessary to acquire safe and nutritious food. The contribution of agricultural sectors to the GDP in 2010–2011 was 20.33 % at 1995–1996 constant prices, while they provided over 62 % of the total employment. About 80 % of the population lives in rural areas and continues to depend largely, whether directly or indirectly, on agriculture for its livelihood. Many rural areas lack education and health resources. They also lack of modern food and grain storage facilities and adequate roads leading to larger market areas. Only 25 % of rural homes have electricity. Large segments of the population remain vulnerable to transitory food insecurity caused by drought, floods, cyclones and other natural disasters, which, in many instances, results in highly adverse adjustments to their means of livelihoods due to the lack of coping capabilities. This highlights the need for strengthening risk reduction, disaster preparedness and management at all levels, including communities and households. Furthermore, the seasonal food crisis that continues to occur, before the harvest of aman rice each year in the northern region of Bangladesh, despite safety net programs, is of particular concern and need to be remedied by adequate interventions to address the shortage of employment/income-generating opportunities during lean seasons. Moreover, there is evidence that malnutrition prevalence in Bangladesh is not confined to poorer households. Whilst child malnutrition is generally higher among the poorest quintiles (46–50 %), it is also high among the richest income quintile (33 %) (World Bank 2007). Thus, whilst many poor household are not able to access a variety of (nutritious) foods, richer households tend to spend more on food, but not golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 153 on more nutritious foods, which results in significant deficiencies in protein, Vitamin A and iron (Helen Keller International and Institute of Public Health Nutrition 2006). This implies that strategies to improve availability, supply and accessibility of more diversified foods, although paramount, need to be complemented by a set of non-income focused policy measures that promote the utilization of a diversity of foods, including efforts to promote positive food behavior, access to clean water and proper sanitation which are all intricately linked to sound nutrition. Differentials within households as regards access to food, nutrition, health care and primary education determine to a large extent the differing nutritional status of individual household members. Where access to resources is more equally shared across sexes, health and nutrition outcomes are significantly better. Moreover, some policy issues need to be addressed such as: Tenure of land and water resources. Land tenure is perceived as a major constraint particularly for the food insecure who, for a large part, do not own the land that they work. They therefore have insecure, prohibitive and unstable access to land through crop sharing arrangements which reduce both the impact of potential policy and investment interventions on household food security and the incentive for these smallholders to invest as a result of uncertain access to land. Surface water is leased to potential users with insufficient clarity and regulation, leading to lack of incentive for sustainable use and investment in better practices. This is a widespread concern amongst the farming community, Government senior officials, NGOs and civil society; Credit and other financial resources were often mentioned by the farming community, entrepreneurs and civil society as a major constraint for them to take advantage of public investment to invest in productive assets. In their difficulties to access the banking system, they point out the governance issue, the complex procedures, the insufficient regulatory and policy mechanisms for agroprocessing; as well as excessive collateral and interest rates. In addition, smallholders mention the inadequacy of most of the current microfinance activities to support investment activities. Involvement of Private Sector – Immense scope for private investment in activities and business in the food security sector, providing the adequate policy environment is put in place. Opportunities exist in agro-processing, in the milk and dairy industry, better quality input supply business. Suitable deregulation has led to the development of the small pump industry as a good contribution to cheaper investment by water users for irrigation benefiting from more accessible equipment. Innovative entrepreneurs invest in contract farming, or new types of milk collection systems, both accompanied with services to the farmers. However, to take full advantage of these opportunities, some policy elements have to be more conducive. Some of the mentioned ones include fiscal incentives or reduced interest rates to enable the development of infant and risky industries in the agricultural sector; much stronger regulatory framework to allow the development of secured contractual arrangements between actors along the food chain; some golam.rabbani@bcas.net 154 F.R.S. Ahmed revision in the tariff system which are unfavorable for local production; the reduction of artificial support to state entities involved in business activities, resulting in unfair competition and limiting private investment in these activities. An enabling policy for fostering education both at a higher level for research purposes and a professional level for extension workers is required. In addition, new education curricula should be developed to ensure convergence of education programs in health, nutrition and food. Policies should enable fair access to markets by farmers and consumers, particularly for some commodities key to food and nutrition security (e.g. milk), These could include a more favorable tariff system for those imported items that could be produced locally; interventions to avoid quasi monopolistic attitudes of some market players; the promotion of marketing groups or associations to empower smallholders access markets. The need for a more effective and better governed regulatory and quality control of inputs so as to protect smallholders and enable them to invest in improved techniques and inputs. A need to further clarify trade-offs between various uses of food stocks (safety net to food insecure; price control purpose and emergency stocks) so as to improve management of the PFDS and better evaluate needs for additional and enhanced storage facilities. Better targeting of safety nets, extension activities and others is essential to optimize their impact on the most food and nutritionally insecure in the country. Government is planning to enact food safely act and food safety rules (2014) as now a day’s contamination and adulteration of food is a major concern for all kinds of food. Food policy, food policy program of action as well as country investment plan all are primarily concerned for the cereal crops and it did not put enough emphasis on other non cereal food crops like oil, pulse, vegetables, spices or other important crops. The difficult enforcement of some existing regulations and rules should be addressed through empowering and disseminating information to communities and grass-root actors. Coordination of food security actions such as food production, safety nets and nutrition is a challenge, in particular as it has to be inclusive of nonstate actors and development partners. References Ahmed AU, Dorosh P, Shahabuddin Q, Talukder R (2010) Income growth, safety nets, and public food distribution. Paper prepared for the Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum, Dhaka, 26–27 May 2010 Ahmed AU, Aberman NL, Jabbar M, Akhtar N (2011) Policy perspective of the country investment plan for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh. International Food Policy Research Institute, Gulshan, Dhaka Asaduzzaman M, Ringler C, Thurlow J, Alam S (2010) Investing in crop agriculture in Bangladesh for higher growth and productivity, and adaptation to climate change. Background paper prepared for the Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum, Dhaka golam.rabbani@bcas.net 8 Policy Support and Institutional Dimensions of Food Security 155 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) (2012) Statistics and informatics division. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) (2009) Ministry of Environment and Forests, Bangladesh (MOEF). Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka Bangladesh Country Investment Plan (2011) A road map towards investment in agriculture, food security and nutrition. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. feedthefuture.gov/ sites/default/files/country/resources/files/BangladeshCountryInvestmentPlanGovernmentof Bangladesh_June2011.pdf Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) (2008) Ministry of Food and Disaster Management. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka General Economics Division (GED), Planning Commission, Government of Bangladesh GOB (2005) Unlocking the potential: national strategy for accelerated poverty reduction. Planning Commission, Government of Bangladesh GOB, Dhaka Heikens A, Panaullah GM, Meharg AA (2007) Arsenic behaviour from groundwater and soil to crops: impacts on agriculture and food safety. Rev Environ Contam Toxicol 189:43–87 Helen Keller International and Institute of Public Health Nutrition (2006) Bangladesh in facts and figures: 2005, annual report of the nutritional surveillance project. Hellen Keller International, Dhaka Mishra U, Motahar Hossain SAK (2005) Current food security and challenges- achieving 2015 MDG milepost. In: Proceedings of the national workshop on food security in Bangladesh, Dhaka, 19–20 Oct 2005 National Food Policy (NFP) (2006) Ministry of Food and Disaster Management. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. http://www.mofdm.gov.bd/National%20 Food%20Policy%20_%20English%20Translation.pdf National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008–2015) Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU). Ministry of Food and Disaster Management. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka World Bank (2007) To the MDGs and beyond: accountability and institutional innovation in Bangladesh. Bangladesh development series, paper no 14. World Bank Office, Dhaka golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security Md. Anwarul Abedin and Umma Habiba Abstract The global food crisis is exposing existing and potential vulnerabilities of households, governments and the international system to food and nutrition insecurity. Most of the rural poor are smallholder farmers whose capacities to benefit from high food prices are severely constrained by the lack of inputs, investment and access to market. Similarly, in Bangladesh, community people are the frontline victims of all kind of natural disaster along with food security. Hence, community people take different initiatives with the assistance of institutions to cope with food insecurity. To cope with the situation community based food storage system may be a crucial solution in addition to create income generation in non-formal sectors. Marketing support is considered as an essential part in supporting and raising the income of the target group because they usually do not get fair price of their artisan works in the local markets. Therefore, this chapter focuses firstly about community initiatives towards food security, problem associated community actions and finally future guideline to overcome the barrier of community initiatives and actions on food security that ultimately insure risk reduction of community people. Keywords Community people • Barrier • Community initiatives • Food security 9.1 Introduction According to the World Food Summit (1996), “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. Food security encompasses many issues ranging from food production, distribution and access to food preferences and health status of individuals. Community people especially rural poor are the frontline sufferers of food security. Md.A. Abedin (*) Department of Soil Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh e-mail: masumagriculture@yahoo.com U. Habiba Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: shimuagri@yahoo.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_9 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 157 Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba 158 In twenty-first century, the world will need to produce significant amount of food in order to deliver a basic, but adequate, diet to everyone. However, frequent natural disasters due to changing climate and global warming make the global food security system worse which is already in crisis to meet the basic demands. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report along with other scientific studies, it is clearly understood that climate change has a direct impact on agriculture, livestock and fishing, particularly in countries of topics and sub-topics, which will not only affect local but the global food security (Bals et al. 2008). Natural disaster duet o climate change increases the food crisis for most of the developing countries by affecting the production and supply process (Tandon 2012). In Bangladesh context, climate change induced extreme events such as floods, droughts, cyclones, storm surges, sea level rise and salinity intrusion are likely to reduce agricultural yield, reduce livestock productivity and increase livestock mortality. Increasing temperature with less rainfall has already affected biological and physical ecosystems of Bangladesh. Degradation of productive lands due to different hazards namely floods, drought and salinity intrusion have direct effect on agricultural production. For example, the loss of rice production in a village of Satkhira district was 1,151 metric tons in 2003 less than the year of 1985, corresponding to a loss of 69 %. Out of the total decreased production, 77 % was found due to conversion of rice field into shrimp pond and 23 % was because of yield loss (Ali 2006). The reason of this production disparity in southwestern region because of massive salinity intrusion occurred through climate induced sea level rise. On the other hand, in northwestern area, Habiba et al. (2011) found that the cultivated land is now turning into fruit crop fields, like mango orchards due to drought. Moreover, mango cultivated area has increased to 8,667 ha in 2011 compared to 4,650 ha in 2001. These community initiatives help to get immediate relief from the climate change impacts, but these practices gradually cause decreasing of cultivated land, particularly hinders rice production. However, to long run productivity of food along with reduce the effect of climate change on food supplies, livelihoods and economies; therefore, it is foremost important to scale up the effective community initiatives that would help to sustain food security and finally reduce the vulnerability of the community people and enhances risk reduction process. Bangladesh government has identified food security as an important factor contributing to its socio-economic stabilization and sustainable development. However, Bangladesh has made a steady progress in the expansion of food production. But because of the increasing population pressure there has been an extensive use of land to meet the growing demand for food. Despite the growth in food production and its availability, food insecurity is still a major problem mainly because of the lack of purchasing power and thus of access to food, especially for the ultra poor community. A major portion of the rural population is landless, and as labours they depend on casual earning for their livelihood. Due to the seasonal variation in agricultural employment and limited employment opportunities in non- farm sector, millions of people suffer from chronic and transitory food insecurity. Hence, community involvement through rural people actions regarding agricultural activities is crucial for food security as they are the first and foremost affected victims. Therefore, golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 159 this chapter tries to illustrate different community actions and initiatives that are directly and or indirectly controlled food security issues at community level, the focus then shifts on the problem associated with community actions and some possible directions to overcome the problems to sustain food security through community initiatives and finally concluding remarks. 9.2 Community Initiatives and Food Security Community people are the front line victims to any kind of natural hazards or extreme events. Hence, the community people themselves and/or with the association of different stakeholders they are trying to combat with such types of natural disasters or extreme events. This section briefly illustrates the commonly available community initiatives that are currently practices by the community people to cope with natural hazards and sustaining food security. 9.2.1 Homestead Garden Homestead gardening is one of the promising and suitable local practices in Bangladesh to meet the household as well as community level demands of vegetables and nutrition. Though homestead gardening is individual efforts, however, it shares and transfers the knowledge, technology and other logistics among the community to inspire the vegetable gardening into their homestead. Moreover, women are responsible for maintaining the homestead garden for their own household food security and get some financial solvency. Therefore, this approach provides other family to nurture homestead gardening for their own food sufficiency, local demand and urban market chain. In Bangladesh, there is an estimated 15 million homesteads, of which two million are in urban areas. Of various crop production activities carried out in homesteads, vegetable gardening is the most prominent. Furthermore, about 15 % of the homestead include vegetable gardens and a relatively greater percentage of the landless (33 %) use their homestead activities. In Bangladesh, about 75 % of the households have a homestead garden; yet a majority of them depend on the market for their vegetables. The size of the home gardens in Bangladesh is similar, ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 decimals and the varieties of vegetables grown in the gardens range from 1.4 in Teknaf to 3 in Dumuria. The average monthly vegetable production per household ranges from 0.3 kg in Madaripur Sadar to 8.6 kg in Sripur. The per capita vegetable consumption by household members ranges from 69 g/day in Madaripur Sadar to 112 g/day in Dumuria (Al-Hussainy 2006). A majority of the farmers use their own stock as a source of seeds and seedlings for gardening. The cultivated vegetables in a home garden can give an economic return of Tk. 1776 per year, where the input cost is only Tk. 470. It also gives a golam.rabbani@bcas.net 160 Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba yearly return of 611.3 kcal, 4133.8 mg vitamin “A” and 323.2 mg of vitamin “C” along with other nutrients in considerable amounts. Nutrient deficiency is a common problem among most of the people in Bangladesh, especially among those living in the villages. About 30,000 children become blind every year due to vitamin “A” deficiency in their daily diet. Due to poverty, illiteracy and lack of knowledge about food and nutrition, many farmers suffer from malnutrition, which especially affects newly married, pregnant, or lactating women. On the other hand, most households in the villages occupy some land surrounding their home, where they can easily establish a homestead garden to supplement their nutritional requirements. These gardens involve “deliberate management of multipurpose trees and shrubs in intimate association with annual and perennial agricultural crops and, invariably, livestock, within the compounds of individual houses, the whole crop tree animal unit being intensively managed by family labour”. These gardens often feature low capital inputs and simple technology. Scientists and development agents often ignore home gardens as an important part of the traditional farming system due to their small size and apparent insignificance. But every farm unit should be considered as a specialized entity in itself because the farmers who practice homestead gardening are guided, perhaps in the absence of a unified set of expert recommendations, by their own perception and conviction about species selection, admixture and management. Many studies have reported the existence of home gardens in various regions of the world, but very few studies have adequately analyzed the structure, species composition, diversity and management aspects of the home gardens. In Bangladesh there is only scattered information regarding nutrition gardening in homesteads. In addition, home gardens are well established land use systems in Bangladesh where different crops, including trees, are grown in combination with livestock and fish. Most of the home gardens are rectangular in shape, built on mounds to raise them above the water level during the annual floods, and usually fenced by trees or shrubs. A typical home garden serves several houses in a cluster and has space for vegetable gardens, a yard for threshing and communal activities, cattle sheds, ponds, trees, shrubs and bamboo (Fig. 9.1). The most frequently harvested plants are generally grown in the back yard, at the pond side, and around the cow shed for the provi- Fig. 9.1 Homestead garden golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 161 sion of fruit/food, fuel wood, timber and fodder both for domestic use as well as for cash. Home gardens are more reliable from the physical and socioeconomic points of view and are important sources of income for the farmers of Bangladesh. The poor farmers are often forced to sell cropland to stave off poverty, but they tend to retain the home gardens unless absolutely unavoidable. It was observed that the landless farmers have their own home gardens where they grow essential commodities for their subsistence. Home gardens in Bangladesh comprise different plants, vegetables and fruit plants along with domestic animals and poultry. There is a clear sharing of tasks between women and men for the management of home gardens. Bangladesh women are mostly involved in the pre and postharvest work of vegetable production while men play a key role in rowing timber and fruit trees. The farmers collect their seeds and seedlings from different sources to cultivate vegetables in their home gardens. Primarily, homestead gardens are the source of supplementary food for a family. Here capital input is low, simple techniques are applied and the family members themselves participate as labor. The cultivated vegetables can also give an economic return when there is a surplus. When livestock is reared in the homestead, it also becomes an important source of economic return. A number of urban and rural households raise and sell livestock and produce different items as an enterprise. Livestock, poultry, and milk and milk products produced in rural and urban homesteads are comparable, but significant differences prevail between rural and urban homesteads regarding production of meat, eggs, hides and skins and bones, hoofs, horns, hairs, etc. Different types of vegetables are produced in the home gardens in different seasons. Hence, the availability of different nutrients varies from season to season. In Bangladesh, home gardens supplement the nutrient requirements for a farmer’s family without negatively affecting the resource base. Moreover this practice improves the resources of poor farmers and also meets several socioeconomic and ecological conditions which contribute to their better living and sustainability. 9.2.2 Floating Garden Floating gardens provide an alternative sustainable and suitable cultivation technique to grow vegetables on the floating bed by reducing pressure on the arable land or by turning the flooded and waterlogged areas into productive lands. Therefore, the community has developed and established this sustainable community-based floating garden that helps to protect them from the devastating effects of floodwater and waterlogging and allows farmers to grow crops in a floating platform. This cultivation technique also generates income for the rural poor, and also leads to significant and substantial increase of food production in that rural area. ‘Floating gardens’ also known as ‘Baira’ are one of the best known agricultural adaptation techniques in Bangladesh and are an ancient form of ‘hydroponics’ which means ‘growing plants in nutrient containing water but without soil’ golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba 162 Fig. 9.2 Vegetable production on floating water garden (Source: Golam Rabbani and author) (Fig. 9.2). As more than two-thirds of Bangladesh consists of wetland areas and seasonal flooding has covered large areas of land for centuries it is not surprising that this traditional adaptation to seasonal flooding has developed in the south of Bangladesh in Gopalganj, Pirojpur and Barisal Districts. Rice straw was the main item for making a baira until 40 years ago but since then the water hyacinth plant has taken its place. Initially a bamboo pole the length of the required floating garden is places over a floating bed of water hyacinth, then more water hyacinth and other rotting ‘aquatic plants’ or ‘plants that grow in water’ are pulled together, after a week or so more decomposable plants like water hyacinth from the water bodies are piled on top, bamboo poles are used to keep the baira in place, then later either a ball or cushion made from aquatic plants or coconut husks are used to make a bed ready for seed planting. Either summer vegetables or winter vegetable seedings are cultivated on baira for sale and they simply rise and sink along with floodwaters. When finished with the material is used as compost. As floods are predicted to cover larger areas on a more regular basis due to climate change this technique is now being promoted outside the areas in which it originated (Irfanullah 2005). 9.2.3 Sorjon Cultivation Community people are step ahead to combat with natural disasters to ensure food security using their indigenous knowledge and local innovative technology with the help of different stakeholders. Aside from floating garden, a further principal system for saline and non-saline areas vulnerable to water logging is the Sorjon or ‘raised bed’ system. Moreover, sorjon cultivation is one of the good practices that are extensively used in southern Bangladesh to improve the people’s food security. A system of raised beds 10 m long, 2 m wide and 1 m high, interspersed with ditches 10 m long, 1.5 m wide and 1.5 m deep are constructed in the dry season, with the topsoil replaced onto the top of the beds when finished (Fig. 9.3). Vegetables and fruit can be cultivated on top of the bed, while trellis made with bamboo or other materials can support creeper vegetables over the ditches and in the monsoon golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 163 Fig. 9.3 Sorjon cultivation (a) Preparation of sorjon bed (b) Vegetable cultivation on sorjon bed fish may even be cultured in the ditches (Miah 2010). Currently, sorjon cultivation is very popular at the community level in the coastal region of Bangladesh. With the application of sorjon method, coastal community improves their agricultural production, which enhances food security in the poor vulnerable people. 9.2.4 Vegetable Cultivation on Channel Embankment Cultivation of high value vegetables and fruits on channel embankment is now a very popular approach in the rural community to produce more vegetables and fruits in a sustainable way to meet up demands of rural poor and urban market. This cultivation technique is the collective effort of advanced group of farmers. This technology is one kind of management practices in the embankments of the freshwater sources or even low level of salinity water sources. Currently, due to the impact of climate change, this cultivation procedure is very popular in the coastal communities. The Fig. 9.4 depicts the illustration of cultivation of vegetables on the channel of embankment in the coastal region. This technique utilizes the freshwater from the channel of the embankments or even water containing very low amount of salt. Finally this cultivation procedure helps to meet the demands of household as well as community people through the supply of local market. 9.2.5 Cultivation of Alternate and Promising Crops Drought, insidious onset disaster, takes place in Bangladesh more frequently than in the past because of climate change (National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) 2006). Hence, community people in the drought prone areas practices alternate crop golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba 164 Fig. 9.4 Vegetable cultivation on channel embankment Fig. 9.5 Mango garden in drought prone areas cultivation procedure to minimize the gap of production failure, cost for the rural poor, which ultimately helps to generate incomes and increase food security. Mango and Jujube Ziziphus jujube, are alternative and promising crops to grow in drought risk areas in western Bangladesh. Figure 9.5 shows the mango orchard in the drought prone areas. Cultivation and maintenance procedures of mango and Jujube orchards and management of market links is very difficult for a single farmer. Therefore, farmers of the northern part of Bangladesh create community group for production and marketing of products to get more financial benefits and logistics for ensuring sustainability of the business. The northwest region is known for its quality mango production and mango cultivation is increasing. The crop is drought resistant golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 165 and many times more profitable than T.aman rice, while the inter-spaces in the young mango plantations can be intercropped with T.aman and boro rice. Jujube is a tropical fruit crop able to survive within a wide temperature range and is even more tolerant of drought conditions. The crop can be cultivated successfully in dry areas like the Barind Tracts with little irrigation and the Jujube can also be intercropped with T.aman rice (Selvaraju et al. 2006). Increasing the tree cover in this way is also an adaptation that will benefit other crops in the area by increasing local humidity levels and reducing evapo-transpiration and soil moisture loss due to reducing wind flow across fields. 9.2.6 Grain Banks The food banks concept has been successful in improving the access of the poorest households to fill in their food gaps during times of shortages and has often saved the members from falling to the clutches of indebtedness (Fig. 9.6). Furthermore, public foodgrain stock plays an important role in responding to emergency food situation in the country. Hence, grain bank is another important coping mechanism at community level to ensure food security for the rural poor. In this connection, the major problem of community and household level food security owes to the problem of lack of availability of food at local level even though there might be surplus of food at the macro level or lack of access to food. At the time of harvesting, in order to repay debts, the small and marginal farmers sell their produce, often at a Fig. 9.6 Grain bank at community level golam.rabbani@bcas.net 166 Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba very low price and subsequently fall short of foodgrains later in the year. The numbers of months of food gaps are even higher in the areas where agriculture is rainfed and crop failure is recurring. Because of lack of food, the nutritional status of these people is usually weak thus making them less productive or productive at the cost of their health. To ensure reach of food grains by poor households, the concept of grain bank has been promoted among the communities all over the country, especially in the areas that are prone to crop failure and drought. In most cases, the target groups for food bank are ideally a group of 10–15 land less families. These families by definition are located in rain-fed regions, mostly prone to drought and other natural disasters characterized by subsistence agricultural activities generating few wage employment opportunities. Such groups are homogeneous in their economic profiles and are prone to endemic hunger. The food bank is usually formed by such groups through the concept of small household groups (SHGs), especially among women, with all the members of the groups having equal stakes in contributions and entitlements. The members of the SHGs put an initial contribution of grains to the bank in amounts as decided by the SHG members. The amount of food contribution of the members is the basis for calculation of the entitlement for withdrawal of food by the members at any given point of time. Sometimes, the initial contribution for the seed capital is made on a matching basis by external agencies or governments who are facilitating or promoting food bank in a particular region. 9.3 Problem Associated Community Initiatives Communities have very limited local support system, which might include things such as financial resources or service networks, which diminish the possibilities for the initiative to make a difference in the community. Furthermore, community people faces different barrier to implement any kind of measure for ensuring food security in a sustainable way that ultimately hasten the risk reduction process in Bangladesh. Therefore, this section depicts some problems or barriers associated different community initiatives implemented in the community level. 9.3.1 Income Level and Financial Assistance Majority of the community people in Bangladesh lives below the poverty line. Hence, level of income of the community people is very limited to meet the necessary demands of food purchase and supply to their households. On the hands, they get very less chance to get financial support from various source of support golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 167 organizations. Therefore, due to the lack of income generating power as well as support from various source they become vulnerable day by day which is threatened for the food security and risk reduction phenomenon. 9.3.2 In Appropriate Markets, Infrastructure, and Institutions Most of rural regions consisting primarily of poor and vulnerable people, including small farmers, are often the last regions to get investments in infrastructure and, partly for that reason, markets in these areas are poorly developed. Rural poor people, whether farmers or not, will not benefit if they are excluded from participation or fair competition in the mainstream market economy. 9.3.3 Lack of Good Governance The term ‘Good governance’ the rule of law, transparency, the elimination of corruption, sound public administration, and respect and protection for human rights— supports efforts to achieve food security for all. In the past 20 years or so the role of the public sector has shrunk while NGOs and business and industry have taken on additional responsibilities. Although this shift may be appropriate, the for-profit sector and NGOs have limitations in providing public goods, such as peace, the rule of law, affordable access to clean water and electrical power, public health, public research, and rural transportation infrastructure. Governments must also have the political will to stamp out corruption and must persuade business and industry, NGOs, and citizens to work to this end. 9.3.4 Lack of Natural Resource Management Developing countries like Bangladesh, poverty, low agricultural productivity, and environmental degradation interact in a vicious downward spiral, as desperately poor farmers mine soil fertility and climb the hillsides in an effort to survive. Unless properly managed, fresh water may well emerge as the key constraint to meeting future food security, and needed reforms include providing secure water rights for users and reducing or eliminating water subsidies. Low soil fertility and lack of access to reasonably priced fertilizers constrain farmers in many countries. Policies should encourage farmers to make appropriate use of organic and inorganic fertilizers and improved soil management. golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba 168 9.3.5 Lack of Intervention of Research, Knowledge, and Technology In the arena of biological sciences; technological developments, energy, and information and communications offer new opportunities that could benefit poor community people, their food security, and natural resource management. These benefits will materialize only if policies are in place to guide technological developments toward solving poor people’s problems. 9.4 Future Recommendation Food security is an important dimension of human security and fundamental to economic development for the community people. Therefore, this section tries to deliver some basic recommendations that directly and indirectly help to sustain food security for the community people. 9.4.1 Endorsement of Income for the Rural Poor Ensuring level of income is the first steps for the rural community to maintain sustainable food security. Therefore, level of incomes of the poor and ultimately ensuring sustainable livelihoods, requires that their asset base be enhanced including physical capital (e.g. infrastructure), natural capital (e.g. water resources delivered through new infrastructure), human capital (through improved health and education), financial capital (through savings and credit programs); and social capital (through training and income earning activities that increase connections among people). Building such assets goes beyond current income, to enhance the productive base and make households less vulnerable to income fluctuations in the future. Furthermore, several programs viz. Food/Cash For Work (C/FFW), Vulnerable Group Development (VGD), Cash/Food for Education (C/FFE) are designed to increase the asset base of the poor and thus enhance their access to food. Foodbased interventions such as Food/Cash For Work (C/FFW) are designed to increase access to food by providing employment while building infrastructure to support rural development. Other programs, including Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) are designed to augment participants’ incomes on a more sustainable basis by providing training as well as short-term employment and food transfers. Cash/ Food for Education (C/FFE) aims to improve food security of the poor in the shortrun through direct transfers of food/cash, as well as enhancing future income through developing human capital in the long-run. Likewise, the National Nutrition Programme of Ministry of Health and family Welfare aims to increase sustainable incomes of the poor by improving nutrition (thereby increasing labour productivity) and small-scale household income earning activities. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 9.4.2 169 Food Price Stabilization The foodgrain prices are a crucial determinant of welfare for both producers and consumers particularly for the poorest groups in Bangladesh. Instability in producer prices of foodgrains increases farmers’ uncertainty and discourages much-needed private investment in irrigation and agricultural machinery. Large increase in consumer price significantly lower real incomes of poor households, for whom foodgrains account for over 70 % of their total spending. For the poorest, large price increases force them to reduce their food consumption, threatening their lives. Hence, stabilization of food price is another important aspect to ensure food security for the rural poor. In this connection, preventing large increases in market prices through Open Market Sales (OMS) operation is an alternative mechanism for increasing food security for these people. 9.4.3 Food Market Efficiency Aside from income and food price stabilization, intervention of improved food market efficiency is another vital parameter for food security issue. For instance, there are large number of buyers and sellers in the food market of Bangladesh. An efficient food market will ensure unhindered flow of goods and services across time and space. But the dispersal of small producers over vast areas, lack of proper transport, storage and communication system, formal and informal restriction on movement of goods and faulty grading system seriously affect the competitive environment. Bangladesh experiences two periods of price hike in rice, one during September to November (before T. aman harvest) and the other during March and April (before Boro harvest) as national stock goes down. During these periods, food prices are at their highest level but agricultural wages are at their minimum. So, both food availability and accessibility are worst during these periods, affecting the landless, marginal and even small farm families (who together constitute more than 60 % of the rural population). As a result, prevalence of malnutrition and other nutritional disorders rises also to the peak at these times of the year. Around 7.7 million rural household are living virtually landless. They neither can produce adequate food for themselves nor purchase the food they need. Hence, it is necessary to improve food market efficiency to strengthen food security at the community level. 9.4.4 Improved Access and Distribution of Food Improved access and proper distribution of available food plays a significant role on food security at the community level. Furthermore, one important issue relating to access to and consumption of food is the distribution of food among members of the household. Even though households have enough food at their disposal, there is no golam.rabbani@bcas.net 170 Md.A. Abedin and U. Habiba guarantee that all individuals in the households have equal access to food. Conventional food intake patterns suggest that women and children have less access to food than adult males. 9.4.5 Efficient Food Safety Net Program At the community level, many people live below the poverty line, who face seasonal food insecurity, i.e. face hunger and deprivation during the lean season. Hence, efficient implementation of food safety net program in cooperation with community people helps to boost up the food security in the rural area. 9.5 Conclusion Bangladesh experiences many types of natural disasters viz. Flood, cyclone, storm surge, water logging, salinity intrusion, drought etc. and the impacts of climate change, which often enhances to develop disaster. As a consequence, it not only has impacts on physical, economic, and natural aspects of the country, but also has major implications on food security that hampers both lives and livelihood of community people specially, rural poor. To cope with natural disasters for ensuring food security, a number of stakeholders viz government, NGOs, CBOs, development partners and communities are working at national to local level. Among them, community people pays a leading role to ensure food security through different community initiatives. Adding together, access to food is very vital particularly in a country like Bangladesh where about 50 % of population live below the poverty line. The income of the poor does not permit them to have sufficient food intake. Furthermore, the nutritional status of each member of the household depends on several conditions being met: the food available to the household must be shared according to individual needs; the food must be of sufficient variety, quality and safety; and each family member must have good health status in order to benefit from the food consumed. Again, “Local people are the real experts” in terms of climate change, as they know about any changes that are occurring best, as well as having traditional responses to cope with many of them. Figure 9.7 tries to depicts the real scenario among the interaction of climate change, natural disasters and food insecurities and how different community initiatives and actions helps to improve food security at the community level that finally proceed for risk reduction through diminishing community vulnerability against food. It is true in a sense that, community initiatives and actions along cant able to attend food security completely, however, people and community actions may play a step ahead role to contribute for achieving food security by meet up local needs and demands. On the other hand, government interventions, cooperation and coordination at the community level also useful to scale up of the community actions, which at the end enhance food security. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 9 People and Community Actions on Food Security 171 Fig. 9.7 Diagrammatic representation of climate change, community initiatives and food security References Al-Hussainy N (2006) Community based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation: local capacity‐building in the Philippines. Disasters, Wiley Online Library Ali AMS (2006) Rice to shrimp: land use/land cover changes and soil degradation in South western Bangladesh, Land Use Policy 23: 421–435 Bals C, Harmellng S, Windfuhr M (2008) Climate change, food security and the right to adequate food, German watch, Stuttgart Habiba U, Shaw R, Takeuchi Y (2011) Socio-economic impact of droughts in Bangladesh. Droughts in Asian monsoon region. In: Shaw R, Nguyen H (eds) Community, environment and disaster risk management, vol 8. Bingley, UK, pp 25–48 Irfanullah H (2005) In: Ahmed R, Nishat A (eds) Baira: the floating gardens for sustainable livelihood. IUCN-The World Conservation Union Bangladesh Country Office, Dhaka Miah MU (2010) Final report of UNEP/APFED project: field testing of innovative farming practices related to climate change in the vulnerable areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies and United Nations Environment Programme, Dhaka. Available at http:// www.apfedshowcase.net/sites/default/file/Final%20Report%20of%20UNEP%20APFED%20 -BCAS.pdf. Accessed 10 June 2014 National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (2006) What is drought? Understanding and defining drought. Retrieved from http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm Selvaraju R, Subbiah AR, Baas S and Juergens I (2006) Livelihood adaptation to climate variability and change in drought prone areas of Bangladesh: developing institutions and options. Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome Tandon N (2012) Food security, women smallholders and climate change in Caribbean SIDS. International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, Cape Town golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh Md. Golam Rabbani, A. Atiq Rahman, Ishtiaque Jahan Shoef, and Zoheb Mahmud Khan Abstract Climate Change induced hazards, including cyclonic events, variations in temperature and rainfall, drought and salinity intrusion in water resources and soil are adversely affecting the agricultural production and food security in Bangladesh. Much more alarmingly, it is expected that Sea Level Rise will further deteriorate the agriculture sector in future. The fall of rice production in the coastal zones already indicates a disturbing situation under the already changing climatic elements. A number of studies have been under taken to explore the impacts, the adaptation measures being taken and that can be taken, vulnerability of the people living in these areas, and the loss and damages imposed upon the agricultural sector in the coastal zones. Both quantitative and qualitative tools were applied to measure agricultural productivity and vulnerability in the study locations. This paper is mainly based on the review of such recent studies on climate change and agriculture related issues in the coastal areas. It shows that cyclonic events (e.g. Cyclone Sidr 2007 and Cyclone Aila 2009) and the associated salinity intrusion have drastically affected the agricultural production (mainly rice and vegetables) in most of the coastal districts. According to a recent study, 86 % households believe that the local rice production (aman) has decreased because of salinity intrusion in soil in the study villages. Keywords Cyclone Sidr • Cyclone Aila • Agriculture • Food security • Coastal zone Md.G. Rabbani (*) Environment and Climate Change Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.A. Rahman • Z.M. Khan Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: atiq.rahman@bcas.net; zoheb.mahmud@bcas.net I.J. Shoef Data Management Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: ishtiaque.shoef@yahoo.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_10 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 173 174 10.1 Md.G. Rabbani et al. Introduction Climate Change, and the variability issues associated with it, adversely affects the water resources of Bangladesh, as it does in most countries, causing a dramatical reduction of agricultural crops. This adversity is occurring almost all over the country, including the coastal regions. The rural communities, especially the poor farmers, may be the worst victims of such climatic phenomena. The impacts of climate change on the food security of developing countries like Bangladesh may be comparatively higher because of the dire dependency on agriculture for livelihood earning, and low resilience to climate induced and other kinds of disasters, mainly due to educational, economical and technological aspects. Bangladesh has developed various cultivars in an attempt to become resistant to a number of climate-induced hazards, including floods (submergence), drought and salinity intrusion. However, all these new cultivars have only been able to adapt to a certain level. For example, BINA 8 is the rice cultivar that can resist salinity levels of 8–12 dS/m. This has been a blessing in disguise for the farmers of Bangladesh, since many farmers had to suffer immensely right after Cyclone Sidr and Cyclone Aila, before 2010, because of the lack of cultivars that could withstand moderate to high levels of salinity (>8 dS/m). This paper reviews a number of studies, conducted to explore impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the agriculture, food security and other related issues in the coastal zones. Sets of quantitative and qualitative tools were applied to measure agricultural productivity and vulnerability in the locations that these studies were conducted in. Secondary data and literature were also reviewed to complement the findings of the field level studies. In these studies, the selected villages were the most vulnerable and affected sub-districts in the coastal zones. The survey tool was developed in consultation with relevant experts to make it consistent with the subject and local context. The qualitative tools including FGDs and in-depth interviews helped to get details on the issues and verify the responses from the survey. However, this paper reviews and focuses only on the agricultural and food security parts of the studies. 10.2 Climate Change, the Coast and Agriculture The coastal zone is under serious threat from climate change. It is evident that variations in temperature, erratic rainfall behavior (late onset, excessive rainfall over a short period, lack of rainfall in particular times of the season, and so on), cyclonic events, storm surge induced salinity intrusion and potential sea level rise (SLR) will all affect the coastal zones in hostile ways. According to the National Adaptation Programme of Action (MOEF 2005), Bangladesh could face a sea-level rise of 32 cm by the year 2050. The sea level at Hiron Point, near the Sundarbans, has been rising at 5.3 mm a year over the period of 1977–2002 (CEGIS 2006). Other stations golam.rabbani@bcas.net 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 175 along the Bangladesh coastline also show an increasing trend of sea levels (SMRC 2003). In the near future, low-lying coastal lands may well gradually inundate, affecting all agricultural activities, wetlands ecosystems and other infrastructure, unless they are solidly protected. Saline water intrusion stands as one of the major physical impacts of sea-level rise on the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Salt water is already intruding into fresh water sources and reservoirs in these areas, and increasing the soil and water salinity levels in many districts in the southern part of the country (Islam 2004). It has been found that the children living in 11 coastal districts of Bangladesh have severe malnutrition, and their percentage is much higher than that of the national average. A recent World Bank report shows that Bangladesh will most likely face the largest impacts due to SLR (World Bank 2007). Another report shows that 40 % of the Sundarbans will be submerged if the sea level rises by 25 cm, and the whole of the Sundarbans will disappear in the event of an SLR above 60 cm (Hare 2003). Figure 10.1 shows that area likely to be affected by 1 m sea level rise in Bangladesh. In fact, the SLR is likely to inundate the coastal wetlands, lowlands, and accentuate coastal erosion. Furthermore, it may increase the frequency and severity of floods, create drainage and irrigation problems and finally dislocate millions of people from their homes and occupations (Rahman et al. 2007). An estimation, based on a coarse digital terrain model and global population distribution data, shows that more than 1 million people will be directly affected by SLR by 2050 in each of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna deltas in Bangladesh (Ericson et al. 2006; Cruz et al. 2007). To add to this rather frightening scenario envisioned in these reports, salinity has already become one of the major problems for the coastal zones of Bangladesh. The assumptions that experts put to this are pointed at low flows of fresh water from the Ganges and the ingress of salt water from Bay of Bengal. As mentioned before, this is already affecting the production levels of rice and vegetables in these areas drastically, and the farmers are facing rather acute risks to their own food securities. So, it can be said, with some level of certainty, that the compound effects of SLR and salinity, in the not too distant future, may disrupt agriculture (e.g. reduction of rice), mangroves including the Sunderbans and coastal wetland ecosystems, including ponds that support supplementary small scale irrigation for farmers. The recent reports also state that the coastal communities may suffer even more, with water borne diseases and other physical problems (e.g. menstruation problems of the women in these area, from drinking saline water) due to SLR and salinity intrusion (Rabbani et al. 2012). Generally, main crop agriculture, at the national level, includes Rice crops (Boro, Aman and Aus), Jute, Cotton, Sugarcane, Pulses, and different types of Vegetables. In the coastal zones, however, the main crops include rice (Boro and Aman), Sugarcane, Pulses and Vegetables. Some other crops are being cultivated on a smaller scale. At the national level, the agricultural sector contributes 43.6 % of the total labour force. Although the contribution of the agricultural sector of the coast to the GDP of the country is not known, the crop production, especially rice production in the coastal regions show a decreasing trend over the last several years. golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.G. Rabbani et al. 176 Fig. 10.1 Area likely to be affected by 1 m sea level rise in Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net Rice Production (Million Ton) 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 177 40 35 30 25 National Production (Million T) 20 15 Coastal Production (Million T) 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 Year 2010 2011 Rate of change (%) Fig. 10.2 Total production of rice at national level and coastal zone between 2007 and 2011 25 20 15 10 National Production 5 0 Coastal Production 2007 (Base Year) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Fig. 10.3 Rate of changes in rice production at national level and coastal zone in different years (2008–2011) According to agricultural statistics, Fig. 10.2 shows that the rice production at the national level had increased from 27 Million tons in 2007 to over 33 Million tons in 2011, while it increased only 7 Million tons to 8 Million tons in the coastal zone in the respective years (BBS 2008, 2010, 2012; Huq and Rabbani 2011). The rates of changes in rice production in different years at national level and in coastal the zone show variations during 2007–2011. This indicates that the rate of change in rice production at national level from 2007 (base year) to 2008 was about 6 % while it was less than 1 % in the coastal zones (Fig. 10.3). It also indicates that the rate of change in rice production at the national level remained higher than that of the coastal zones in each of the years from 2008 to 2011. According to the farmers of some of the coastal districts e.g. Satkhira, the yield of traditional cultivars has decreased and the Aus rice variety is gradually disappearing from the mentioned district. This, quite obviously, is happening because of salinity intrusion in both water and soil resources. The salinity intrusion caused by both rapid onset events (e.g. cyclones and storm surges) and slow onset events (e.g. SLR) are affecting agricultural land, resulting in reduction of crop yields (Rabbani et al. 2010). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 178 Md.G. Rabbani et al. Area of crop damage (ha) 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 Area of crop Damage (ha) 200000 0 1985 1991 1994 1997 Year 1997 2007 Fig. 10.4 Area of crop damages due to major cyclonic events between 1985 and 2007 in the coast The following Fig. 10.4, indicates the area of damage to crops due to different major cyclones between 1985 and 2007. In 2007, the cyclone Sidr damaged crops over an area of about 0.1 Million ha, 60 % higher than the total crop damaged area in 1991 (BBS 2012). It shows that the total damage of crops in terms of area due to Cyclone Sidr in 2007 was much higher than that of the previous years. 10.3 10.3.1 Climate Change and Food Security Issues: Observations/Evidences from Different Coastal Districts of Bangladesh Case Study-1 A study was conducted on the households of four villages in the Shyamnagar Upazilla, under the Satkhira district in 2012. The total number of respondents for the study was 360. This study found that about 27 % of households suffered from a deficiency of food in the year before 2011 (Rabbani et al. 2013). In addition to this, sea level rise cause inundation of more area which is already reported by scientist. Therefore, damage of agricultural crops will be more acute in future (Anik and kabir 2012). Figure 10.5 shows that the population in the study areas suffers from food shortages more or less all around the year. It also clearly indicates that the food shortage remains high in the months of August and September of the year, as related by 68 % of the HHs. It is at the lowest in December (3 %). The farmers usually cultivate the main rice crop (Aman) during monsoon to early winter (June–December). The farmers also cultivate some other crops including rice and vegetables during December–May. Incidentally, harvesting of Aman rice and vegetables in late post monsoon and early winter (November/December) helps them to avoid food scarcity, and they can continue living on the food stock that comes from this up till early monsoon (June/July). However, other sources of income remain low during the months of August–September, because this period actually relates to the profound golam.rabbani@bcas.net Respondents ( %) 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 179 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Month Fig. 10.5 Percentage of HHs facing food deficit during different months of the year rainy season in the coastal zone. Among the study villages, Tengrakhali village was found to be the worst victim of food shortages, as mentioned by 72 % of the study HHs. Moreover, more than 80 % of the HHs mentioned that severe food crises have affected them at least ten times in last 10 years. Many of the respondents mentioned the low production of the rice due to the increased salinity in the soil, late rainfall, seasonal drought and damage of crops and vegetables because of excessive rainfall in short bursts. It was reported that the food shortage is becoming an increasingly critical issue for the study areas. 10.3.2 Case Study-2 Cyclones have a devastating effect on the rice production in the coastal areas of Bangladesh also. For example, in 2007, due to cyclone SIDR the cultivated area of rice and consequent rice production declined at a great scale (Anik and Kabir 2012). Another study was conducted in 16 villages of five Upazillas in five vulnerable coastal districts in 2012. This study targeted 750 HHs from the respective villages of five coastal districts in the south, which includes Satkhira (Shyamnagar Upazilla), Bagerhat (Mongla), Patuakhali (Kalapara), Khulna (Koyra) and Cox’s Bazar (Teknaf). According to the study, on average, 89 % of the respondents mentioned that the disasters that are occurring are really affecting the damage of agriculture production resulting in the food crisis in the villages (Fig. 10.6). The households of Mongla remain the worst hit from food shortage as indicated by 99 % respondents (highest), while the least affected people were found in Shyamnagar (71 %, lowest). It was also found that damaged crops and livestock due to the last disaster affected the communities. Most of the respondents (above 89 %) mentioned that crop damage due to Cyclone Aila caused the food shortage in 2009/2010 in all of the study locations (Fig. 10.7). Livestock was also hard hit in the study villages, mentioned by 70 % of the respondents. It may be noted that poultry farming/rearing is one of the most important livelihood options, especially for the women in the rural areas. golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.G. Rabbani et al. 180 100% Respondents (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Mongla Teknaf Koyra Kalapara Shyamnagar Study Upazilla Respondents (%) Fig. 10.6 Percentage of respondents on disaster and food security in study coastal districts 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% House Crops Livestock Type of damaged item Fig. 10.7 Percentage of respondents on the type of damaged assets due to last disaster in the study coastal districts Table 10.1 Food availability all around the year in the study locations District Bagerhat Bhola Lakshmipur Coastal total 10.3.3 Upazila Mongla Rampal Manpura Kamal nagar Is the quantity of produced food sufficient to meet your needs? (% said No) 64.0 54.7 43.4 56.0 53.6 Did you face food crisis in the previous year? (% said Yes) 88.0 78.7 91.8 82.7 85.5 Case Study-3 Table 10.1 provides the state of food availability in 22 hard to reach villages (very remote areas) of five Upazillas in three coastal districts of Bangladesh. A Two-stage-Cluster Sampling procedure was adopted in selecting samples for the household study. The study considered the village under a union (lowest administrative unit of the country) as the first stage-cluster and the beneficiary household as the ultimate sampling unit. The study covering 422 households found that the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 181 Table 10.2 What type of damage did you incur in the last disaster faced by your HH? Types of damaged assets House Crops Livestock WatSan Others Total % of HHs reported damage in natural disaster 77 29 30 52 4 84 Avg. value (per reporting HH) of the damaged assets (US$) 104 119 94 10 52 178 community suffers from food crisis in different months of the year. In fact, about 54 % of the study households (on average) mentioned that the food that they produce do not nearly meet their needs. On an average, more than 85 % of the respondents stated that they had to face food crisis in the year before (2011). The study also indicated that the last disaster severely affected the communities. According to the estimate by Department of Agricultural Extension of Bangladesh, the loss in rice equivalent is found at 1.23 Million tons, with 535,707 tons in the four severely affected districts, 555,997 tons in badly affected 9 districts and 203,600 tons in moderately affected 17 districts in Bangladesh. More than 29 % of the study households were affected by the last disaster (Table 10.2). Average value per reporting household of the damaged crops due to the last disaster was found to be 119 US Dollars. 10.4 State of Adaptation on the Agricultural Sector The Government of Bangladesh has introduced a set of crop cultivars that are resilient to climate-induced hazards like salinity. Three rice varieties are grown in three different seasons: Aus, Aman and Boro (Rabbani et al. 2012). The season of Boro refers to the cultivation that takes place in the months of December to May. In the case of the cultivars that are farmed during this season, the seeds are sown first, and then transplanted and the production has to be irrigated. The season of Aus starts in April and ends in August. In Bangladesh, these months are known for the monsoons, and the crops grown at Aus thus are rain fed. June to December is known as the Aman season. This is the time of the year when most natural, climate-related hazards hit the country, and harvests are often affected as well. Productivity of Aman rice is particularly low in most of these coastal areas because of excessive flooding (either partial or complete) and less adoption of suitable high yielding varieties (HYV) of rice (Rahman 2012). Some varieties of Aman are scattered and raised, while others are transplanted. The yield of Aman is greater than those grown in Aus and lower than those grown in Boro. golam.rabbani@bcas.net Md.G. Rabbani et al. 182 Rice Farmers Are Adapting with High Salinity in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh! Porimal Mondol (age ~40), a rice farmer of village-Harinagar, UnionMunshiganj, Upazilla-Shyamnagar, District Satkhira was struggling with traditional rice varieties during early 2001. The BRRI 28 production was constantly decreasing during 2001–2007. Mr. Mondal nearly tripled his rice yields in 2008, In 2010, the latest saline tolerant variety BINA 8 was practiced by only 4–5 farmers in the village. Two years later, about 150 farmers had attempted to grow BINA 8. Porimal says, “we grow 4.7 to 4.9 tons of rice/ha with BINA 8 now”. A similar rate of production was obtained from BRRI 47 in the same area. Mr. Modal says, “We prefer cultivation of BRRI 28 because it looks thin, attractive, low duration and we are habituated with this kind of rice”. But due to increase of salinity in the soil (above 4 dS/m) in some areas we are practicing BRRI 47 and BINA 8 (Source: Field visit, 1 June 2012). The Ministry of Agriculture, and associated Departments and Institutes are implementing adaptation programmes to address climate change. In addition to the Annual Development Programme (ADP), these organizations receive financial support from the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) and Bangladesh Climate Resilient Fund (BCCRF) to implement adaptation projects in the agricultural sector. Seventeen rice varieties developed by the research institutes of the Government of Bangladesh can withstand submergence (flood), drought and salinity (Table 10.3). Of them, nine varieties are resistant to various levels of salts, two varieties are flood tolerant and the rest of the total is able to survive in drought conditions. Of the total saline tolerant varieties, five are being practiced in different vulnerable areas and the remaining two is said to be going to reach farmers soon (BRRI 53 and BRRI). The following Table 10.3 shows the climate resistant rice varieties in Bangladesh. 10.5 Conclusion In order to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on food sector, we need to analyze the possible options that could assist in increasing food security. Therefore, adaptation in the agriculture sector must be well integrated with both the broad national development goals and livelihood priorities at the local level. The coastal zone is extremely vulnerable because of a number of climatic factors. These include variations in temperature, erratic behavior of rainfall, cyclonic events, golam.rabbani@bcas.net 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 183 Table 10.3 Climate related stress tolerant rice varieties developed by the BRRI and BINA for the coastal region and Bangladesh Climate tolerant Growth Average yield rice variety duration (days) (ton/ha) BRRI dhan 51 142–154 4 BRRI dhan 52 145–155 4.5 Salinity in soil, surface BRRI dhan 40 145 4.5 and ground water BRRI dhan 41 148 4.5 BR 10 150 5.5 BRRI 28 140 6.0 BR 23 150 5.5 BRRI dhan 27 115 4 BRRI dhan 47 152 6.0 BINA-8 130–135 5.0 BRRI 53 (proposed) 140 5.0 BRRI 54 (proposed) 140 5.0 Drought BRRI dhan 55 145 7.0 (also saline tolerant) BRRI dhan 57 100 4.0 BRRI dhan 42 100 3.5 BRRI dhan 43 100 3.5 BRRI dhan 33 118 4.5 BRRI dhan 39 122 4.5 Source: updated from Huq and Rabbani (2011), BRRI (2014), Mazumdar (2011), The Financial Express (2011), Salam et al. (2011), and The Daily Star (2010) Climate related stress Flood (submergence) droughts and salinity intrusion. The potential sea level rise, predicted to happen, may aggravate the vulnerability of the local communities especially in the coastal zones. Currently, the cyclones, accompanied by storm surges and increase of salinity intrusion in the water and soils of the area, are the major catastrophic phenomena for the coastal communities. The coastal region of Bangladesh is deprived of the technological advancement in agriculture. Only very few agricultural technologies are suitable to adopt directly in the coastal saline areas of Bangladesh. All these climatic hazards critically affect the agricultural production, inevitably resulting in crisis of food in most of the coastal districts. This in turn leads on to various other secondary impacts and it has become absolutely necessary to strengthen the technological innovations that are being used at present for agriculture and for adaptation, building of the capacities of the local government officials and farmers to adapt and sustain agricultural practices in these vulnerable coastal zones. Baseline and Needs Assessment surveys need to be conducted in these areas, with specific focus on the varying disasters and hazards like salinity, and diversified, saline and flood resistant varieties of crops need to be introduced to them. Furthermore, proper dissemination of information to the farmers of these areas golam.rabbani@bcas.net 184 Md.G. Rabbani et al. needs to be done, in order for them to be able to adapt to the new and varying technology being introduced to them. Early warning systems, crop-based weather and flood forecasting systems, improved drainage, and an immediate introduction of technological innovations like floating agriculture need to be implemented in these areas, not only to ensure the unimpeded development and food security of the coastal zones, but also to ensure that the whole of Bangladesh continues to receive the support that the coastal zone provides. References Anik SI, Kabir MH (2012) Climate change and food security, elusive progress: state of food security in Bangladesh. Shrabon Prokashani, Dhaka, pp 7–12 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2008) Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2010) Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2012) Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka BRRI (2014) BRRI’s 40 years achievements. Bangladesh Rice Research Institute. Accessed 15 July 2014. http://www.brri.gov.bd CEGIS (2006) Impact of sea level rise on land use suitability and adaptation options. Report prepared for the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh; Centre for Environment and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, Anokhin Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda Y, Jafari M, Li C, Huu Ninh N (2007) Asia. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Cyclone Sidr (2007) Cyclone Sidr affected most of the coastal districts of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007 Cyclone Aila (2009) Cyclone Aila mostly affected South West coast of the country on 24 May 2009 Ericson JP, Vorosmarty CJ, Dingman SL, Ward LG, Meybeck M (2006) Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications. Global Planet Change 50:63–82 Hare W (2003) Assessment of knowledge on impacts of climate change—contribution to the specification of article 2 of the UNFCCC: impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socioeconomic systems. German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin Huq S, Rabbani G (2011) Adaptation technologies in agriculture: the economics of rice-farming technology in climate –vulnerable areas of Bangladesh. In: Christiansen L, Olhoff A, Traerup S (eds) Technologies for adaptation: perspectives and practical experiences. UNEP, Roskilde Islam MR (2004) Where land meets the sea: a profile of the coastal zone of Bangladesh. The University Press Limited, Dhaka Mazumdar MLH (2011) Adapting agriculture to climate change. The Daily Star of 1 Jan 2011. http://archive.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=168249. Accessed 8 Sept 2013 Ministry of Environment and Forests (2005) National adaptation programme of action (NAPA): final report. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. http://www.moef.gov.bd/. Accessed 7 July 2014 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 185 Rabbani MG, Rahman AA, Islam N (2010) Climate change and sea level rise: issues and challenges for coastal communities in the India Ocean region, published Stimson Centre Publication, Washington. http://www.stimson.org/rv/pdf/Coastal_Zones_PDF/Coastal_ZonesChapter_2.pdf Rabbani G, Rahman SH, Faulkner L (2012) Impacts of climatic hazards on the small wetland ecosystems (ponds): evidence from some selected areas of coastal Bangladesh. Sustainability 5:1510–1521 Rabbani G, Rahman A, Mainuddin K (2013) Salinity-induced loss and damage to farming households in coastal Bangladesh. Int J Global Warm 5(4):400–415 Rahman MM (2012) Enhancement of resilience of coastal community in Bangladesh through crop diversification in adaptation to climate change impacts. BRAC University, Dhaka, p 4 Rahman A, Alam M, Alam S, Uzzaman MR, Rashid M, Rabbani MG (2007) Risks, vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh, a background paper prepared for UNDP Human Development Report 2007 SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) (2003) The vulnerability assessment of the SAARC coastal region due to sea level rise: Bangladesh case, vol 3, SMRC. SMRC Publications, Dhaka Salam MA, Rahman MA, Bhuiyan MAR, Uddin K, Sarker MRA (2011) BRRI dhan 47: a salttolerant variety for the boro season. Plant Breeding Division; and R. Yasmeen and M.S. Rahman, Plant Physiology Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh. http://dspace.irri.org:8080/dspace/bitstream/10269/112/1/v.32%281%29Soil.pdf. Accessed 3 Sept 2011 The Daily Star (2010) Two salinity tolerant varieties of T-Aman paddy soon. 18 July 2010. http:// www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=147255. Accessed 29 Aug 2013 The Financial Express (2011) BRRI releases 2 new stress-tolerant rice varieties. http://www. thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=132106&date=2011-04-10. Accessed 10 July 2013 World Bank (2007) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis, World Bank policy research working paper 4136, World Bank, Washington, DC golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region of Bangladesh Abu Zofar Md. Moslehuddin, Md. Anwarul Abedin, Mostafa A.R. Hossain, and Umma Habiba Abstract Bangladesh has a primarily agrarian economy. Agriculture is the single largest producing sector of the economy. Soil is the predominant aspect for a successful crop production; whereas, good soil health is a prerequisite for sustainable agriculture and food security. On the other hand, more than 30 % of the cultivable land in Bangladesh is in the coastal area. Out of 2.86 million hectares (ha) of coastal and off-shore lands about 1.056 million ha of arable lands are affected by varying degrees of salinity. Hence, this chapter would deal with status of soil parameters including soil salinity, its threat to sustainable crop production and food securities. Then the focus shifts to find out possible ways and few recommendations towards improving the soil health as well as reduction of the risk in southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. Keywords Soil • Coastal belt • Bangladesh • Salinity intrusion • Crop production • Livelihood • Adaptation • Mitigation measures 11.1 Introduction Bangladesh, with a booming population of about 160 million, is one of the poorest and globally number one vulnerable countries to climate change impacts and disaster. A number of natural hazards including floods, cyclone and storm surges, tidal A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin (*) • Md.A. Abedin Department of Soil Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh e-mail: abunazia@yahoo.com; masumagriculture@yahoo.com M.A.R. Hossain Department of Fish Biology & Genetics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh e-mail: marhossain@bau.edu.bd U. Habiba Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: shimuagri@yahoo.com © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_11 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 187 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. 188 surges and resulting intrusion of saline water, water logging, drought, river bank erosion have long been affecting the country almost every year. These calamitous events significantly hinder the agriculture sector of the country and its economic and social development through two major ways- firstly, damaging the crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry, natural resources, production systems and infrastructures and secondly, pulling back the ongoing growth, developments and domestic and transboundary trade. In the light of coastal Bangladesh, people have been suffering from lack of food security. Lower crop productivity and less cropping intensity are the main reasons for increasing food insecurity in this region. Like other parts of the country, dominant land use in coastal Bangladesh is agriculture. The gross and the net area used for crop farming in the coastal zone of Bangladesh is 144,085 and 83,416 ha, respectively (Islam 2004). The net-farming area of coastal Bangladesh, however, has been gradually decreasing over the years due to various reasons and the most common one has been the land inundation and salinity intrusion by tidal water (Seal and Baten 2012). Besides, there are many reasons such as increased salinity, increased incidences of pests & diseases, erratic rainfall, higher temperature, drought, tidal surges, cyclone, submergence, large fallow lands/water bodies, land degradation, poor road network, poor marketing facilities and unemployment with long-term cumulative effects of soil-related constraints, climate risks and socioeconomic problems those impede the food production and distribution in this region (Rahman 2012). As most people in the coast have only seasonal employment and do not have job opportunities round the year, crop farmers, fish farmers, fishers and others suffer from the lack of alternative livelihood strategies and their food security situation is vulnerable and is a matter of grave concern. Majority of the people in coastal areas are involved in crop cultivation, fish farming and fishing and they remain frequently unemployed due to tidal water surge and other natural disasters resulting food insecurity in the entire coast. However, Bangladesh has made a remarkable progress in the last three decades towards achieving self-sufficiency in food grains due to substantial intensification of cropping, introduction of high yielding crop varieties, expansion of irrigated areas and increased use of chemical fertilizers. But recently, declining or stagnation of major crop yields have been recorded due to cumulative effects of many soilrelated constraints and climatic risks viz. depletion of soil organic matter, imbalanced use of fertilizers, nutrient mining, degradation of soil physical and chemical properties, erratic rainfall, temperature rise, droughts, floods, soil salinity, water salinity, tidal surges, water logging, cyclone, scanty use of bio and organic fertilizers and poor management practices. The proportion of different nutrients used in agriculture without soil testing in recent years is highly deleterious to soil productivity. Since crop production is a complex function of many factors like crop, soil, environment and production management practices. On the other hand, Bangladesh is located in a climatically vulnerable position and is impacted by natural calamities. Therefore, this chapter provides an overview of southwestern coastal Bangladesh. It further depicts the status and extent of soil characteristics, the underlying causes golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 189 and how crop production is affected. Based on the findings, this chapter then concludes and gives some recommendations to improve crop production as well as to enhance food security of this region. 11.2 Linkage Between Soil Health and Food Security There is a strong link between soil health and food safety. Soil contains a number of minerals, usually in balanced amounts, providing essential nutrients for plants and animals and eventually for humans. There are two scenarios in which this synergy of plants, animals and humans lacks reasonable equilibrium. Firstly, soils may contain insufficiency in (too little) or surplus of (too much) nutrients, which eventually reflect in the supply to, as well as health of plants, animals and humans. This is usually the outcome of inheritance from the parent rocks, which have released either too much or too little of a particular component into the soil resulting imbalance in nutrient supply. The situations can be a major setback for soil health and for all those what/who live and rely on soil. Many of the soils that are subject to insufficiency/surplus problems globally are now reasonably fairly recognized and well addressed, particularly in the developed nations. A more significant difficulty arises when human misuse/abuse the soil leading to pollution or contamination. Most of the problems relate to increased industrialization and urbanization, over the last several centuries in the developed world, when much damage has been done to soils, leaving a legacy of pollutants and contaminants. In the present days, rapid industrialization in many developing countries is unleashing the similar effect, with much pollution going unchecked, leading to severe land degradation. Misuse of soil in this way interacts with the ability of soil to meet safety standards and has jeopardized the crop production. Now food safety and nutritional security is a major global issue. Soil has the most crucial role in securing this food safety and security because it has many different functions, including adsorption of nutrients, filtering, leaching, flow control, storage and amelioration. Many of these functions are imperative in planning food security. Understanding of the properties of soils, the processes operating within them, and their distribution in the landscape, is essential for the management of contaminants and would-be soil pollutants in the soil system with respect to food safety and security. 11.3 Scenario of Bangladesh Coast The coastal area covers an area of 20 % of total Bangladesh. In terms of administrative consideration, 19 districts out of 64 are considered as coastal districts (BBS 2011; MoEF 2007). The country has coastline of about 710 km along the Bay of Bengal (MoWR 2005). It extends inside up to 150 km from the coast. The country golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. 190 Fig. 11.1 Map showing coastal area of Bangladesh covers three discrete coastal regions – western, central, and eastern coastal zones which are shown in Fig. 11.1. The western part is known as Ganges tidal plain, comprises of semi-active delta and is criss-crossed by innumerous channels and creeks. The topography is very low and flat. Average land elevation is below 1.5 m MSL. The southwestern part of the region is covered by the world’s largest mangrove forest (6,017 km2), popularly known as Sundarbans. The mangrove forests act as barriers to the furiousness of tropical cyclones and storm surges. Erosion is comparatively small in this region but it suffers from salinity intrusion and tidal flooding (Karim and Mimura 2006). The Sundarbans was declared by the UNESCO as a natural world heritage site in 1997 (Islam 2008). The central region is the most active one, and this area suffers from continuous erosion and accretion (Karim and Mimura 2006). The very active Meghna River estuary situates in this region. The combined flow of three powerful rivers – namely, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna, are commonly called as the GBM river system and ranked as one of the largest river systems in the world – discharges with the name as Lower Meghna into the northeastern corner of the Bay of Bengal. This estuarial region suffers from the most disastrous effects of tropical cyclones and storm surges in the world (Ali 1999; Karim and Mimura 2006). The GBM river systems carry 85 % of the total dry season flow passing through the coastal zone of Bangladesh (Islam 2008) and carry an estimated annual sediment load of about 2.5 million MT. The sediments are subjected to coastal dynamic process and lead to recreation and erosion in the coastal area of Bangladesh. This complex geographical phenomenon introduces rather slow mutative changes in the coast; of various effects, new land formation is a significant factor in influencing physical and socio-economic scenario of the coastal zone. Besides, the eastern region has higher elevation and this zone is relatively stable part among other coastal golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 191 regions in the country. The world longest natural sand beach, Cox’s Bazar (120 km) is situated in this region (Karim and Mimura 2006). The coastline is involving coastal and island communities of about 50 million people, nearly one-third of the total population of Bangladesh (Miyan 2009). Fishing, agriculture, shrimp farming, salt farming and tourism are the main economic drivers in this area. The Sunderban is a major source of subsistence for almost ten million people (Islam and Haque 2004). Main activities in Sunderban are fishing, wood and honey collection. Almost 10,000 household in the area have neither homestead land nor cultivable land. On the contrary, more than one million households in this area have only homestead but no cultivable land (Islam 2004). However, people’s live and livelihood of this coastal area is frequently affected by sea level rise induced disastrous hazards, e.g. cyclone and storm surge, flooding and salinity intrusion. Most of the people of the coastal area lost their lives or injured in cyclonic storms, primarily as a result of the water surges. 11.4 Status and Extent of Soil Condition in Bangladesh Coast As a deltaic country, over 30 % of the net cultivable area of Bangladesh is in the coastal region. Out of 2.85 million ha of the coastal and off-shore areas, about 0.828 million ha of the arable lands, that constitutes about 52.5 % of the net cultivable area in 64 upazilas (sub-districts) of 13 districts. A part of the coastal area, the Sundarbans, the largest contiguous mangrove of the world is a reserve natural forest covering about 4,500 km2. The rest of the coastal area is used in agriculture. The vast cultivable areas, however, are under severe threat of risks and vulnerabilities of the climate change and agricultural production has been rapidly declining due to climate risk factors. Saline water intrusion, sea level rise, water logging, cyclone and storm surges are some of the major climatic hazards affecting the low lying coastal areas of the country. 11.4.1 Physiography Tidal and estuarine floodplains cover almost 98 % of the coastal area of Bangladesh. Only 2 % areas with river floodplains and peat basins is observed in the northern part of the coast. Tidal floodplains occur in Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirozpur, Jhalokhati, Barisal, Patuakhali, Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar district covering a total of 1.865 million ha or about 65 % of the total coast. Estuarine floodplains occur in Noakhali, Bhola and Patuakhali districts and in the north-western part of Chittagong district with an area coverage of about 0.937 million ha or about 33 % of the coastal area (Hauqe 2006). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 192 11.4.2 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. Land Characteristics The coastal saline area lies about 1.5–11.8 m above the average sea level. The Ganges river meander floodplain systems are standing higher than the adjoining tidal plain. The tidal floodplain has a characteristic, almost level landscape crisscrossed by innumerable interconnecting tidal rivers, creeks and canals. The estuarine islands are continuously changing shape and position as a result of river erosion and new alluvial deposition. Peat basins are located in some of the low lying areas between the Ganges river floodplains and tidal floodplains occurring in the western part of Khulna (Karim et al. 1982). The areas are subject to annual flooding in the monsoon and water logging is common in parts of the basin areas in the dry season. Tidal flooding through a network of tidal creeks and drainage channels connected to the main river system inundates the soil and impregnates them with soluble salts thereby rendering both the top and subsoil saline (Haque 2006). 11.4.3 Hydrology The most important feature of hydrology in relation to agricultural development is the seasonal shallow flooding (up to 90 cm) which affects about 64 % of the total area. Flood water here recedes from October to late December. Depending on topographical position and drainage facilities, water recede from about 24 % area within October, from about 53 % area by November and mid-December and from about 23 % area by late December (Haque 2006). The effect of the tides is manifested in a regular fluctuation of rise and fall of the water level of the Bay of Bengal and the estuarine/tidal channels and creeks. The high tide during summer rises up to 1.3 m above the ground level. On the east coast of the Sundarbans, the highest tide could inundate lands up to a depth of 2.0 m, where protective embankments are not erected. 11.4.4 Nutrients in Saline Soils Soil fertility is the most important factor for crop production. In general the coastal areas of Bangladesh are rather low in soil fertility. Soil reaction values (pH) range from 6.0 to 8.4 with the exception of Chittagong and Patuakhali, where the value is slightly acidic and range between 5.0 s and 7.8. Most of the soils are moderate to strongly alkaline, the pH values of the surface soils being lower than those of the subsurface soils. In places with higher pH values as in coastal soils, micronutrients’ deficiencies are expected. The soils in the coast are in general poor in organic matter content. The organic matter content of the top soils ranges from less than 1 to 1.5 %. Presence of the low organic content indicates poor physical condition of the coastal soils. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 193 The cation-exchange capacity (CEC) of the soils range from 9.4 to 40.6 m.e.%. The higher CEC values of the soils Khulna and Bagerhat are due to finer texture and higher organic matter contents. Soils with less than 15.0 m.e.% CEC below is regarded as of poor status (Singaraval et al. 1996). The soils contain varying levels of exchangeable bases, but a general characteristic is the higher Ca and K saturation of the exchange complex compared to Na and Mg in most of the soils. The Na and Mg saturation of the exchange complex is harmful because they harm the physical properties of soil and offset plant nutrition. Magnesium has synergistic effect of plant uptake of Na as well as the antagonistic effect on the uptake of Ca and K. The total N contents of the coastal soils are generally low, mostly around 0.1 %. The low N content may be attributed to low organic matter contents of most of the coastal soils. Available P status ranges between 1 and 25 ppm. Soils with deficient levels of P are also found in Chttagong, Barguna, Satkhira and Patuakhali districts. Widespread Zn and Cu deficiencies have also been reported in the coastal regions (Karim et al. 1990). 11.4.5 Ingression of Soil Salinity Salinity ingress also causes an increase in soil salinity, especially when farmers irrigate their lands with slightly saline surface water at the beginning of the low flow period. SRDI (1997) reported that, soil salinity levels south of Khulna and Bagerhat towns ranged between 8 and 15 dS/m during the low flow season. It is also reported that, several subdistricts (such as Kachua, Mollahat, and Fultali) south of the Sundarbans” known to be non-saline in the pre-Farakka period have began to develop soil salinity during the low flow seasons of 1980s. The anticipated results of salinity ingress will be, at a minimum, of the same order for climate change induced low flow regime compared to similar effects shown by deliberate withdrawal of flows at Farakka barrage. The anticipated sea level rise would produce salinity impacts in three fronts: surface water, groundwater and soil. Increased soil salinity due to climate change would significantly reduce food grain production. Even at present, some parts of coastal lands are not being utilized for crop production, mostly due to soil salinity; and this situation would aggravate further under a climate change scenario. A modeling exercise has indicated that, under the changed climate conditions, the index of aridity would increase in winter. Consequently, higher rates of capillary action from an increased rate of topsoil desiccation would accentuate the salinity problem. 11.4.6 Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion A direct consequence of sea level rise would be intrusion of salinity with tide through the rivers and estuaries. It would be more acute in the dry season, especially when freshwater flows from rivers would diminish. According to an estimate of the golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. 194 Master Plan Organization, about 14,000 km2 of coastal and offshore areas have saline soils and are susceptible to tidal flooding. If some 16,000 km2 of coastal land is lost due to a 45 cm rise in sea level, the salinity front would be pushed further inland. The present interface between freshwater and saline water lies around 120– 160 km inland in the southwest, and this could well be pushed northward as far as central Jessore region in the event of a sea level rise. 11.4.7 Fertility Status of Coastal Soil The systematic study on soil fertility status of Bangladesh including the coastal region is scanty. During 1989–2002, Soil Resources Development Institute (SRDI) of Bangladesh carried out the soil survey (with soil map). The surveys (1:50,000) published sub-district (Thana/Upazila) wise Soil and Land Utilization Guide (in Bengali) (SRDI 1989–2002). A large number of soil samples were collected from each upazila representing different soil series for soil fertility status. Values of different parameters for each upazila including soil pH, Electric Conductivity (EC), organic matter content, and available status of nitrogen (NH4–N) (or Total N in later reports), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn) and boron (B) for each of soil samples of a soil series have been presented in separate tables. The district level data has been prepared using combined average. Low to very low status of organic matter content indicates poor status of soil health. Land area having low and very low levels of organic matter and nutrient status in soils (%) of nine coastal districts is presented in Table 11.1. 11.5 Impacts of Climate Change in Coastal Belt The coastal belt is highly vulnerable due to the climate change. The intensity of disasters like sea level rise, tidal surge, salinity intrusion and cyclone in coastal belt is being increased. Among them, the salinity intrusion is a major factor which impedes the crop production at large in the coastal belt. Water and soil salinity is a common hazard in many parts of the coastal zone. Consequently, the crop area is reducing and the cultivation of boro and aus rice, boro and other rabi crops are being restricted. According to BCAS’s report (2010), the coastal agriculture is being seriously affected by different levels of climatic risks caused by integrated effects of the following factors: soil salinity, water salinity, sea level rise, tidal surge, cyclone, heavy soils, soil wetness/water stagnancy, fallow/seasonal fallow land, incidence of pests and diseases, poor marketing infrastructure, problem of agro-based industries, poor health, livelihood, fishermen’s are jobless, migration to cities, unsafe drinking water, etc. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Name of district Area (ha) Org M Bagharhat 147,655 5.8 Barguna 107,459 51.0 Barisal 183,377 29.5 Bhola 143,404 59.6 Khulna 158,062 4.4 Patuakhali 190,203 48.4 Pirojpur 81,612 15.1 Satkhira 181,521 13.7 Jhalokathi 55,298 41.6 Total 1,248,591 29.0 Source: Data calculated from SRDI (1989–2002) Ca 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 Mg 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 11.9 0.0 0.0 1.2 K 8.3 6.2 0.8 5.6 26.1 11.1 32.7 3.2 6.3 10.2 N 93.5 100.0 83.5 100.0 93.1 100.0 94.1 99.7 99.4 95.5 P 69.8 68.0 72.7 93.2 69.6 57.1 86.3 65.6 81.9 71.8 S 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 3.3 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 B 0.1 0.0 11.8 4.2 0.9 0.6 1.4 6.2 11.7 3.9 Cu 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 7.6 0.5 0.0 3.5 Fe 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 16.0 0.0 3.8 Mn 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.0 1.9 Zn 30.1 23.5 59.6 86.9 26.2 47.9 76.8 28.5 71.8 47.3 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… Table 11.1 Land area having low and very low levels of organic matter and nutrient status in soils (%) of nine coastal districts in Bangladesh 195 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. 196 Climate change risks • High temperature, • • • • • • erratic rainfall, late monsoon and drought Sea level rise, tidal surges river erosion Flooding and intrusion of salt water Cyclone/ stormy weather Water logging Incidences of pests and diseases Soil-related constraints • Increasing soil salinity and • • • • • • • • water salinity Scarcity of quality irrigation water during dry season Heavy soil consistency due to swelling/cracking clays Problems of tillage operations for land preparation Soil wetness and late drainage conditions in early dry season Large fallow lands or water bodies/seasonal fallow lands Deficiencies of N,P,S and Zinc Iron ( Fe) toxicity and arsenic (As) contamination Water-logging and drainage congestion Socio-economic factors • Poor marketing infrastructure • Problems of road • • • • • • • network and communication Problems of agrobased industries Poor human health and hygiene Poor food and nutrition security Lack of employment opportunities Problems in fishing activities Population migration Unsafe drinking water Fig. 11.2 Impacts of impacts and vulnerability of coastal agriculture (Adopted from Rahman 2012) BCAS (2010) also has drawn the long term impacts and vulnerability of coastal agriculture. Based on their study, presently, coastal agriculture is being seriously affected by cumulative effects of soil and water related constraints, climatic risks and socioeconomic problems. These are shown in Fig. 11.2. However, the major impacts of climate change in agriculture sector of coastal area are described by BCAS (2010) that are as follows: Utilization of land in crop agriculture and changes in crops/cropping patterns Average cropping intensity in the coastal areas has not much increased during 1975–1976 to 2005–2006 and ranges from 155 to 181 % except Bhola and Noakhali districts due to climate change. Fallow lands A sizeable amount of cultivable land (about 30–50 % of NCA of concerned districts) remains fallow in rabi and aus seasons. The main reasons of which are: soil wetness/water stagnancy, tidal surges, late harvest of T. Aman rice, drought and increased salinity, expansion of shrimp culture, poultry farm and brick field. Yield reduction Rice yield was reduced by 20–40 % in T. Aman season due to erratic rainfall, increased intensity and frequency of drought, increased salinity, tidal surges, floods, cyclone, use of local varieties, and increased incidences of pests and diseases. Total yield loss of T. Aman crop has been estimated to about 6.93 lakh ton per year based on last 5–10 years of climate change scenarios. Similarly, average golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 197 yield level of Boro rice is being affected (30–40 % yield loss) by high temperature (causing sterility) and increased salinity and that of Aus rice is being affected (20–40 % yield loss) by tidal surges. Vegetables, pulses, oilseed and fruit crops are being affected (20–40 % yield loss) by drought, increased salinity, soil wetness, excessive rainfall and water-logging and tidal surges in most coastal districts. BCAS (2010) reported that total crop loss for major crops (cereals, potato, pulses, oil seeds, vegetables, spices and fruit crops) due to different climate risks was about 14.05 lakh tons per year based on last 5–10 years of climate change scenarios within the areas of ten coastal districts. Changes in annual rainfall Erratic nature of rainfall, number of days without rainfall and more rain is occurring in short duration. Total rainfall in Kharif season is decreasing that affects the cultivation of rainfed crops in the coastal region. But the total rainfall during rabi season is increasing in Noakhali, Cox’s bazaar and Khulna districts that affecting the cultivation of rabi crops. Changes in temperature Temperature is generally increasing in the monsoon, average monsoon maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend annually 0.03 °C and 0.05 °C respectively. Level of maximum temperature in rabi season is increasing compared to minimum temperature affecting winter crops. Increasing soil salinity There is an increasing trend of pH level due to increasing salinity. The salinity level has increased almost doubled (EC: 2.8–18.5 to 4.0–42.8 dS/m) in Sharankhola upazila of Bagerhat district, Dumuria upazila of Khulna district and Shyamnagar upazila of Satkhira district. FAO (2007) in its research report on adaptation to climate change for sustainable development of Bangladesh agriculture mentioned that tidal flooding during wet season (June-October), direct inundation by saline or brackish water and upward or lateral movement of saline groundwater during dry season (November–January) are the causes of soil salinity development in Bangladesh. The severity of salinity problem in Bangladesh increases due to shortage of rainfall. Bangladesh has a coastal area of 2.5 million ha. Of which about 1.0 million ha, along the coastal belt, are under salinities of different magnitudes. It is predicted that Bangladesh may lose a major portion of the coastal areas to sea. Increasing salt affected areas Salt affected areas were 750,350 ha in 1973, significantly increased to 950,780 ha in 2009 (26.71 % increase). Increasing river water salinity There is an increasing trend of river water salinity (12.9–24.5 % increase) in Bishkhali river at Pathorghata point, Andarmanik river at Kalapara point and Payra river at Taltali point during 2001–2009. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 198 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. Groundwater salinity There is an increasing trend of groundwater salinity (5.8–25.6 % increase) in Pirojpur and Bhola districts during 2005–2009. Increasing vulnerable areas of droughts, floods, river bank erosion and tidal surges The study report showed that the vulnerable areas of drought prone, flood prone, river bank erosion and tidal surges have remarkably increased to 152,285, 114,365, 95,324 and 130,588 ha respectively, in 2008–2009 compared to 1975–1976 due to climate change. Miah et al. (2004) mentioned that drought is a very well known natural disaster to the people of Bangladesh. Every year, 3–4 million ha of land are affected by drought of different magnitudes. Average rainfall becomes less during the critical growth stages of crops and the crops suffered from soil moisture deficits. During drought, a heavy loss to aman production affects the farmers’ economy. About 5.0 million ha of lands are cultivated with aman rice, of which 4.2 million ha of lands are prone to drought of different intensities. 11.6 Agriculture in Coastal Areas A number of crops like rice, jute, sugarcane, pulses, oilseeds, spices, vegetables and fruits are grown in the coastal saline soils, their contributions to cropping intensity varies to a great extent with regions. Traditionally the farmers cultivate rice in the Aman season, while multiple cropping is an opportunity in securing food sufficiency. Farmers mostly grow low yielding traditional rice varieties only during the monsoon (Aman) season spanning July to December. Most of these lands remain fallow in the dry (Rabi/Boro) and pre-monsoon (Aus) seasons because of perceived high soil and water salinity and lack of good quality irrigation water (Karim et al. 1990). While farmers of the other parts of Bangladesh benefit from higher farm productivity and have some option to cover their losses from more or less secure high yields from Boro rice, about 1.6 million farm families in the coastal saline areas of Bangladesh have very limited options as they continue to farm under rainfed condition and having above constraints. Crop yields, cropping intensity, production levels and peoples quality of livelihood are much lower in this region than in other part of the country (BBS 2009). Improvement of Aman rice yields, crop intensification by adding either an Aus or a suitable non-rice crop before or a Boro rice or a non-rice crop after Aman rice can improve productivity, farmers’ income, and enhance their livelihoods. Productivity of Aman rice is particularly low in most of these coastal areas because of excessive flooding (either partial or complete) and less adoption of suitable high yielding varieties (HYV) of rice. Farmers rely on traditional rice varieties that are tall, do not respond to inputs and have low yields of 2–2.5 t/ha. Farmers are reluctant to use HYV because they are short stature, easily submerged and damaged by tidal fluctuations. But the excess water could easily be drained out during low golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 199 tide through managing the sluice gates of the coastal polders constructed by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). Unfortunately many of the sluices do not function properly and farmers do not have the knowhow to operate the sluices properly. Improving drainage in the monsoon season would help in cultivation of HYV Aman rice and also early establishment of rabi crops in the coastal areas of the country. 11.7 Salinity: A Major Threat of Crop Production in Southwestern Coast In general, soil salinity is believed to be mainly responsible for low land use as well as a root cause of poor cropping intensity (Rahman and Ahsan 2001). Figure 11.3 depicts how salinity affects on crop production. Since salinity affects certain crops at critical stages of growth, which in turn reduces the yield substantially and in Low water potentiality of Plant Osmotic Pressure Poor plant growth Root uptake Salinity Burnt leaves and dead tissue at the edge of leaves Yield Loss Specific ion effect Direct foliar absorption Higher carbonate and bicarbonate Higher pH Poor iron and magnesium Reduced micro nutrient availability and sodium as dominating ion Deficiency disease like lime-induced chlorosis, an iron deficiency disease Fig. 11.3 Schematic diagram of impact of salinity present in irrigation water and soil on crop production (Source: after Seal and Baten 2012) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 200 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. severe cases total yield is lost. In addition, fertility status of most saline soils range from low to very low in respect to organic matter content, nitrogen, phosphorus and micronutrients like zinc and copper. This is also true for the coastal soil of Bangladesh, because salinity causes seasonal high content of salts in the root zones of the soil that is the main obstacle to crop intensification and diversification in this region. Salinity causes unfavorable environment and hydrological situation, restricting the normal crop production throughout the year (Amin et al. 2008) and few crops/cultivars can survive in severe saline soils. For example, Hannan (1980) mentioned that the estimated agricultural production loss was 647,000 tons in 1976, of which the increased salinity-related loss was 21 %. A study conducted by the World Bank (2000) shows that increased salinity from a 0.3 m sea-level rise will alone reduce the net production of rice by 0.5 million metric tons. Another study by BARC estimated that land degradation due to salinity itself causes a net loss of 4.42 million ton of wheat per year, which is equivalent to US$ 587 million (Sarwar and Khan 2007). Furthermore, Ali (2006) investigated the loss of rice production in a village of Satkhira district and found that rice production in 2003 was 1,151 metric tons less than the year 1985, corresponding to a loss of 69 %. There is growing documentation on the adverse effects of high salinity levels on rice; also high soil salinity prevents growth (Tho et al. 2007), reduces germination (Khatun and Flowers 1995), causes browning of rice fields (Gain 1995), and decreases rice production (Ali 2006). Already 19 of the 40 local rice varieties are extinct, and 4–5 varieties have become rare (Ahmed 2003). Besides rice production, salinity declines the yields of vegetables, coconuts, betel nuts, and fruit. Salinity also enhances food insecurity through the deterioration of milk productivity and reproductive health of cattle’s by the destruction of pasture land. In terms fisheries, native fish species disappear. For instance, Miah et al. (2004) show that native freshwater fish species, such as ruhi, katla, boal, tengra, koi, shing, etc., are disappearing gradually due to increased salinity. On the contrary, people of coastal Bangladesh perceived that the impact of salinity intrusion is very evident in a number of aspects of crop farming in this region (Seal and Baten 2012). Particularly, during the dry season, salinity is the most prevalent hazard for the coastal crop. People have been experiencing decline in the crop production in the last 5–6 years. The salt intrudes in the crop land when farmers irrigate their land. Because, crop farmers generally use water from their adjacent water bodies like coastal rivers, canals and creeks that they collect by low lift pump when tidewater comes during irrigation period. Yield reduction and decline in crop size as impact of salinity were also reported by the coastal farmers. The yield loss, however, was not consistent for all crops varieties. Different crops respond to salinity differently even at a same level. The threshold value for different crops in response to salinity and their yield potentiality was described by FAO (2011) (Table 11.2). Threshold value can be defined as a value of soil salinity level at which plants begin to experience the impact of salinity in terms of yield loss. Based on the tolerance limit of salinity, different crops have different threshold value. The higher the threshold value, the more a crop is tolerant to soil salinity and the lower threshold value indicates less tolerance to soil salinity. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 201 Table 11.2 The threshold value and percent reduction of some winter crops on different soil salinity (FAO 2011) Crop Beans Carrot Onion Pepper Potato Radish Sweet potato 11.7.1 % yield reduction based on different soil salinity (EC in dS/m) 0% 10 % 25 % 1.0 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.7 2.8 1.2 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.2 3.3 1.7 2.5 3.8 1.2 2.0 3.1 1.5 2.4 3.8 Extents and Causes of Salinity Of the 2.85 million ha of coastal areas (some 30 % of the total arable land of the country), about 0.87 million ha are affected by different degrees of soil salinity. Salinity affected areas (ha) under five salinity regimes in the coastal and offshore regions of Bangladesh are presented in Table 11.3. Both water and soil salinity is a common hazard in many parts of the coastal area in Bangladesh. Contrasting with soil and water salinity, SRDI mentioned that salinity intrusion in soil is much higher than water salinity and saline affected area has increased by 35,440 ha (3.5 %) during the last 9 years (2000–2009) whereas it has increased by 222,740 ha (26.7 %) during the last 36 years (1973–2009) (The Daily Ittefaq 2011). However, the worst salinity conditions are reported in Khulna, Bagerhat, Satkhira, and Patuakhali districts of southwestern Bangladesh (SRDI 2010). Salinity gradually increased from south-eastern coastal belt to south-western coastal belt, mainly due to very low flow of upstream water during November to May because of commissioning of the disastrous Farraka Barrage on the Ganges River in the west Bengal of India since 1974. Besides, the other contributing factors are tidal floods during wet season (June–October), direct inundation by saline or brackish water and upward or lateral movement of saline ground water during dry season (November–May). It has been observed over the last few decades that due to increasing level of salinity in some coastal areas and expansion of salt affected area as a cause of further intrusion of saline water, usual crop production is gradually becoming more restricted. The crop area is reducing and the cultivation of aus (summer rice), boro (dry season rice) and other rabi (dry season) crops are being restricted. Coupled with other factors, shrimp cultivation plays a major role in increasing salinity, particularly in the southwestern region of Bangladesh (Haque 2006). Moreover, it has been reported by Islam (1999) that salinity in shrimp cultivating areas may be 500 % higher than in nonshrimp cultivating areas. Therefore, this practice is considered as one of the main reasons for increased soil salinity in southern Bangladesh (Dutta and Iftekhar 2004; Fleming 2004). In 1983, Bangladesh produced only 2,220 MT of shrimp from 52,000 ha coastal land. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 202 Table 11.3 Salinity affected areas (ha) in the coastal and offshore regions of Bangladesh under five salinity regimes (dS/m) golam.rabbani@bcas.net Description Non-saline with very slightly saline Total cultivated area (ha) 425,490 Very slightly saline with slightly saline 420,420 Slightly saline with moderately saline 257,270 Moderately saline with strongly saline 198,890 S4 (12.1–16.0) 0 S5 (>16.0) 0 0 0 25,870 (11 %) 55,130 (28 %) 2,650 (1 %) 32,750 (16 %) A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. Source: Soil Salinity in Bangladesh, SRDI (2010) Saline area (ha) 1,15,370 (27 %) 3,09,190 (73 %) 2,40,220 (93 %) 1,98,890 (100 %) Area of each salinity class (ha) (dS/m) S1 S2 S3 (2.0–4.0) (4.1–8.0) (8.1–12.0) 82,260 31,590 1,520 (72 %) (27 %) (1 %) 1,70,380 1,10,390 29,420 (55 %) (35 %) (10 %) 35,490 1,13,890 61,240 (15 %) (47 %) (26 %) 1,630 36,060 73,400 (1 %) (18 %) (37 %) 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 203 Table 11.4 District-wise shrimp and prawn farming areas 2010–2011 Districts Khulna Satkhira Bagerhat Chittagong Cox’s Bazar Others Total Source: DoF (2013) Area (ha) Bagda 36,557.18 60,348.00 47,900.00 2,070.91 62,907.00 3,834.2 213,617.29 Galda 13,960.42 7,664.00 18,556.06 – – 22,696.68 62,877.16 Total 50,517.60 68,012.00 66,456.06 2,070.91 62,907.00 26,530.88 276,494.45 In 2011, however, the area coverage increased to more than fourfolds – 220,000 ha and the production reached to 125,000 MT. District wise shrimp farming areas are presented in Table 11.4. 11.7.2 Constraints of Agricultural Development in Saline Soil Over the years, agricultural development in the coastal saline zone has been hindered by various physical, chemical and social factors. Often heavy monsoonal downpour, sever flash flood and exposure to cyclones with saline water surges add to the ongoing process of salinization in the coastal-belt. • It has been found that constraints increased with increasing intensity of salinity. Soil salinity is the most dominant limiting factor in the region, especially during the dry season. It affects certain crops at different levels of soil salinity and at critical stages of growth, which reduces yield and in severe cases total yield is lost. A substantial area of land is tidally affected by saline water. Appropriate management practice for crop production in this area is not available. • Fertility status of most saline soils range from low to very low in respect to organic matter content, nitrogen, phosphorus and micronutrients like zinc and copper. The crop yields obtained in these soils are also low. • Scarcity of quality irrigation water during dry season limits cultivation of boro rice and rabi (winter) crops, and aus cultivation during kharif-1 (March–July) season. • Variability of rainfall, uncertain dates of onset and recession of seasonal floods and risk of drought restrict cultivation of aus and aman rice. Uncertain rainfall delays sowing/transplanting and flood damages aus and aman crops. Heavy monsoon rainfall causes delay in transplanting of aman and sometimes flash floods washes away the standing crop. • Narrow technological and germplasm bases for salt tolerant crops limit crop choices. On the other hand, due to extensive cultivation of a particular cultivar of crop year after year makes the crop susceptible to pests and diseases attack. Pests golam.rabbani@bcas.net 204 • • • • • • • • • A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. and diseases like hispa, leaf-hopper and tungro virus are prevalent in the region and extensive damage is caused by these almost every year. In the coastal saline belt with short winter season timely sowing/planting of rabi (winter) crops is essential but this is restricted by late harvest of aman rice. Presence of saline ground water table throughout the year within 1.0 m depth is another factor affecting crop production in the saline belt. Perennial water-logging due to inadequate drainage and faulty operation of sluice gate facilities restricts potential land use of the low lands within the poldered areas. Lack of appropriate extension programs for diffusion of modern technologies. Extension personal trained in saline soil management is also inadequate. This lacking retarded adoption of HYV technologies. Big land ownership and unfavorable land tenure system and dominance of absentee farmers discourage adoption of modern technologies. Difficult communication and remote marketing facilities also retard agricultural development of the region. Land preparation is very difficult as the soil dries out quickly due to the silt clay or clay texture of most of the costal saline soils. Therefore, deep and wide cracks develop and surface soil becomes very hard and it demands deep and rapid tillage operations. A significant area of the coast is within the polders of different types. Soil salinity levels are rather high within the poldered areas and this seriously limits the adoption of HYV Aman and Aus in these areas. Scanty technological innovation and absence of germplasm bases of salt tolerant crops restrict crop choices for the farmers. Moreover, extensive farming of a particular cultivar of crop year after year makes the crop susceptible to pests and diseases. 11.7.3 Strategy to Improve the Health of Coastal Saline Soil Hypothetically, salinity in soil is not very difficult to manage. Leaching salt from soil has long been a widely used and a common practice for soil salinity management which can be done either naturally or artificially. Naturally, during monsoon rainfalls contribute to leach salt out from soil surface. However, in dry season when rainfall is inadequate, the artificial process or irrigation needs to be applied. To control salinity, more water needs to be applied in addition to regular water requirement of the crop. However, one needs to be careful as there is a high risk of increasing salinity content at root zone in case of irrigation with saline affected water. In case of higher concentration of salinity in root zone, deep-water irrigation is necessary. If soil salinity is much higher than optimum level of a certain crop in its root zone and the root is 30 cm deep, 15 cm of water is capable of leaching salinity by 50 % and 30 cm of water is capable of leaching salinity by 80 % and 60 cm by approximately 90 % (Amacher et al. 2000). Methods of irrigation method and pro- golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 205 vision of sufficient drainage facilities also significantly influence soil salinity management. Simple surface water run-off cannot leach soil salinity effectively; hence water should be drained through the soil. Thus, deep tillage is needed to make sure the internal drainage as it is crucial to break up the restraining layers that delay water movement. In this regard, sprinkler irrigation provides a better control of water application rates. Flood irrigation can also be applied successfully if the sites are plain and water application is controlled. The crops, which have higher threshold value to salinity, are likely to have lower leaching requirements and therefore, will require a less amount of irrigation water. On the contrary, low tolerance value requires high leaching that means that more irrigation is needed to raise the yield potentiality which results into high production cost. Moreover, salinity in water also manipulates the soil salinity and its pH. Higher pH in soil is likely to create a deficiency of nutrient like phosphorus, iron etc. To retrieve these nutrients, appropriate fertilizer should be applied against the deficiency of certain nutrient. High pH resulted from high salinity also causes carbonate and bi-carbonate salt to be insoluble and therefore, creates calcium and magnesium ion deficiency and sodium ion dominates. To address the issue, gypsum or calcium sulphate could be applied to release calcium ion and replaces sodium ion (Gale et al. 2001). Timing of irrigation is another key factor in managing soil salinity. A dry and hot day is likely to evaporate more water from soil and therefore, cause more salt to be concentrated in the root zone of plants. Therefore, a cool and humid weather or night is preferable for irrigation. The frequency of irrigation should be increased in case of hot and dry weather to protect crops from salinity stress. Moreover, to reduce the future crop loss and to prevent the present loss, Hossain et al. (2012) recommended the following adaptive techniques to manage salinity that are: Protective embankment There is need for improving the management of coastal saline soils through protective embankment, proper sluice gate, land leveling and improved drainage systems. Land may be protected from inundation of saline water through establishment of embankment of suitable size. The recommended size should be about 1 m high above the high tide level. There should be provision of sluice gates in the embankment system to remove excess water and also to prevent ingress of saline water during high tide. Leveling of land Land should be properly leveled to prevent accumulation of water in the low-lying patches with shallow ground water tables and to facilitate uniform drainage of excess water. It will help to apply irrigation water uniformly in the field in rabi season, facilitate uniform germination of seeds and better growth of crops. Storing of excess rainwater for irrigation Part of the excess water stored in pond after meeting the requirements of the kharif season can be utilized during the dry period for rabi crops. golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. 206 Selection of kharif rice variety Even though the coastal area is relatively flat, there exist elevation differences in areas, where depths of standing water ranges from 15 to 90 cm. Selection of right kind of rice varieties (such as – BRRI dhan 23, 30, 40 and 41), available in the country taking in to account the standing water and extent of salinity in the field can overcome the situation to a great extent. Introduction of crop in rabi (winter) season Cropping intensity can be increased in coastal soils with very slight (S1) and slight salinity (S2) through adopting proper soil and water management practices with the introduction of salt tolerant crop varieties. Keeping land covered in winter and summer months Ground water in the coast is saline and present at a shallow depth (about 1.0 m). Keeping lands fallow turns the soil high saline due to evaporation of excessive soil moisture. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid fallowing of lands during rabi season. Salt tolerant crops should be grown during rabi season. This will lower the profile salinity. Fertilization of crops Since, soils in the coast in general are poor in fertility with low organic matter content, it is necessary to apply appropriate fertilizers to boost up crop production. Potash fertilizer has an added advantage under soil salinity. It brings down Na uptake by plants and increases K uptake. Thus K fertilization protects crops from harmful effects of Na. Provision of sub-surface drainage In many parts of the coastal area, salinity is very high. To grow crops successfully in those areas, it is essential to bring down the salinity by leaching the salts. It is also necessary to lower down the water table and maintain it below the critical depth to prevent salt effect on crops grown. To achieve the objective, a proper sub-surface drainage has to be installed to keep the ground water at least 1 m below the soil surface. This technology is effective but somewhat expensive. 11.8 11.8.1 Existing Adaptation and Mitigation Measures Towards Soil Management in Southwestern Coastal Region At Institutional Level To cope with salinity as well as other natural hazards exists in coastal region; various organizations are working together on soil management to get more yield. For instance, National Agricultural Research System (NARS) have given special thrust to develop salt-tolerant crop varieties suitable to cultivate in this region. As a result, golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 207 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA) have developed some saline-tolerant rice varieties that perform well in the coastal soil. Some of the rice varieties for boro season are BRRI dhan-47 and BINA dhan-8. On the other hand, BR- 23 and BRRI dhan-40, 41, 44, 53, and 54 are getting popular as aman varieties. BRRI dhan-55 is a newly developed variety that can be grown in both aman and boro seasons. Apart from rice variety, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) has developed a number of crop varieties to cultivate in Southern Delta. BARI-developed mung bean varieties like BARI Mug 5 and 6 are suitable to grow in this region. Oilseed Research Centre of BARI developed some other crop varieties of oil crops, soybean, and groundnut. BARI introduced maize, potato, and sweet potato varieties that are very popular in this region. It also developed some fruits like hugplum (amra), coconut, guava (peyara), and some vegetable varieties that are performing well in this region. BARI Halud is very popular there. The different saline-tolerant varieties invented by the research institutes are presented in Table 11.5. Even, different GO and NGOs have been developed a lot of production practices for the region. Several promising adaptation practices are identified and documented for sustainable agricultural production in the coastal region such as: • • • • • • • • Sorjan system of year round vegetables, Spices and fruits farming on raised beds Creeper vegetables on bed edges making trellis on ponds Ditches and fish farming in ponds during wet months in the water-logged areas prone to tidal surge Cultivation of maize, potato and garlic using zero tillage method Farming of vegetables and vegetable seedlings on floating beds using water hyacinth Cultivation of water melon in ring method/Kalsi method Use of cover crops in the rotation cycle Table 11.5 Name of the saline-tolerant varieties introduced by research institutes Sl. no. 1 No. name of the crop Rice 2 Potato 3 Tomato 4 Sweet potato 5 Mustard 6 Wheat 7 Mung bean 8 Turmeric Source: Habiba et al. (2013) Name of the variety BRRI dhan-47, BRRI dhan-53, BRRI dhan-54, BRRI dhan-40, BRRI dhan-41, BINA-8, BINA-9 Saikat BINA Tomato-6 BARI Sweet potato-6, BARI Sweet potato-7 BARI Sarisha-10 BAW-1059, BARI Triticale-1, BARI Triticale-2 BARI Mungbean BARI Halud golam.rabbani@bcas.net 208 11.8.2 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. At Individual and Community Level A number of adaptive actions are taken by the individual and community to cope with or overcome adverse effects of salinity on agriculture. At the level of agricultural farms, adjustments may include the introduction of new crop varieties or species, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations, various fertilizer and pesticide use, conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods, and improving irrigation efficiency. Some options such as switching crop varieties may be inexpensive while others such as introducing irrigation (especially high efficiency, water-conserving technologies) involve major investments (Chhabra 1996). Bunds (dykes/embankment) of shrimp ghers can be effectively utilized at individual and community level to grow seasonal vegetables, fruits and spices. Promotion of integrated rice-fish culture is another option to get befits from the land as well as soil. Compost making and use of composts and other organic manure in homestead gardening is widely used practices to improve the soil health. Due to high salinity levels, it is difficult to cultivate any high yield variety (HYV) crops, such as HYV aman and HYV boro. To ensure food security, the farmers in this area cultivate 13 local saline-tolerant varieties of rice that are especially suited to the current circumstances of this area. These rice varieties include jotabalam, ashfall, ghunshi, and benapol. Based on the land type and soil characteristics, some of these local rice varieties are categorized for shrimp farms and for other agricultural land. For example, Jotabalam and Ghunshi varieties are selected for cultivation in the shrimp farms. On the contrary, Ashfall and Benapol varieties are destined for other agricultural farms. Aside from this, the communities have adapted special mechanisms and raised their homestead to some extent and manage soil in a different way, such as mulching for vegetable growing and selecting salt-tolerant varieties. They utilize rainy seasons for vegetable cultivation and grow some selected species, such as creepers (Puishak, Jhinge, guard, bitter gourd, etc.), ladies fingers, chilies, cauliflowers, cabbages, radishes, etc. from July to March. They grow salttolerant tree species locally called rain trees such as babla, khoibabla, tentul, kewra, coconut, koroi, khejur, paroshpipul, and a few mangrove species with fruit species like sofeda and peyara. 11.9 Conclusions and Recommendations As predicted by Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, marine and coastal ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia will be affected by sea-level rise as a consequence of climate change (Parry et al. 2007). As a consequence, it not only increases the intensity of disasters like sea level rise, tidal surge, cyclone in coastal belt, but also increases the soil salinity, salt water intrusion. Therefore, slightly saline areas will become moderate to highly saline and surface based irrigation will not be possible. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 11 Soil Health and Food Security: Perspective from Southwestern Coastal Region… 209 Furthermore, MOEF (2006) in Bangladesh stated that the distance of the salinity intrusion inland, as well as the extent of salinity in the coastal areas, is expected to increase with rising sea levels. Among various hazards, salinity intrusion is increasingly becoming a severe problem in the coastal region of Bangladesh, particularly in the southwestern part. Thus, salinity poses a great threat to the agricultural production, especially in coastal areas where agriculture and water resources are already under severe stress due to adverse meteorological conditions. Consequently it has substantial impact on food security. As, global warming and climate change have a detrimental impact on soil fertility and crop productivity. The present challenges for plant nutrient management are to maintain sustainable crop productivity to meet the growing demands for food and raw materials and to enhance the quality of land and water resources. To date the much emphasis placed on rice production has resulted in an increased reliance on imports for non-food grain commodities such as pulses, oilseeds, spices and fruits which remain unaffordable by poor and middle-class community, particularly the people of the coastal region. In the changing scenario of the sea level rise, it has been predicted that the increasing concentration of salinity will create more pressure to the farmer by reducing yield on one hand and threatening livelihood, income generation and food security on the other hand. Since coastal area in Bangladesh constitutes 20 % of the country of which about 53 % are affected by different degrees of salinity. Agricultural land use in these areas is very poor. Declining land productivity with shift towards negative nutrient balance is among the main concerns with food security problem in the country. Salinity problem received very little attention in the past. Increased pressure of growing population demand more food. It has become imperative to explore the possibilities of increasing potential of these (saline) lands for increased production of food crops. Thus combating land salinization problem is vital for food security in the country through adoption of long-term land management strategy. Based on the above discussion, however, some policy recommendations are given below to improve agricultural production as well as food security for coastal Bangladesh: Dissemination and Extension of Climate Resilient Agricultural Adaptation Options Block farming year-round crop adaptation practices should be demonstrated to develop climate resilient agricultural systems and to reduce risks of food security. The viable adaptation options need to be tested and disseminated at pilot villages for their acceptance. More study is needed for making location-specific production plan for developing climate resilient coastal agriculture based on soil-crop-climate suitability through proper assessment of soil and water related constraints, climate risks and socioeconomic problems presently affecting crop production systems and livelihood of the vulnerable people of the coastal region. Water management infrastructures development and management Water resources management infrastructures such as protective embankment, proper sluice gate, canal excavation and re-excavation inside coastal polders for improved golam.rabbani@bcas.net 210 A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. drainage systems and for conservation of rainfall and fresh river water for irrigation in the dry season is necessary for adopting climate resilient agriculture and in turn food security of the coastal community. Therefore, water management infrastructures should be developed and maintained the existing structures focusing on the consequences of climate change and agricultural requirements. Adoption of stress-tolerant crops Salinity, submergence and drought tolerant crops should be introduced to develop climate resilient agriculture and also to reduce the risk of crop damage and improve food security and livelihoods of the coastal communities of the country. Capacity building The farmers and the agricultural extension personnel should be trained on improved, innovative and climate resilient adaptation practices for wider dissemination of the technologies for food security of the expanding population. Encourage Women Involvement in Agriculture The participation of women in homestead farming, seed production & preservation, compost making, agro- processing, fish and livestock production in the homestead areas should be encouraged to further improve the climate resilience of the coastal communities of Bangladesh. Marketing infrastructures development Road network, marketing infrastructures and agro-processing facilities should be developed for ensuring price of the farm produce and also for fare access of the agricultural input. Coordinated Actions for Continuous Adaptation Adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of agriculture and allied sectors to the impacts of climate change requires coordinated actions, proper planning, financial resources for implementation and community involvement for improving coastal agriculture. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the support from Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) program through the project “Assessing health, livelihoods, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in populous deltas” (NE-J002755-1) funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) to conduct this study. References Ahmed M (2003) Impact of shrimp farming on socio-economic, agriculture and environmental conditions in Paikgacha of Khulna district. Ph.D. thesis, Bangabandhu Sheik Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University Ali A (1999) Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh. Clim Res 12:109–116 Ali AMS (2006) Rice to shrimp: land use/land cover changes and soil degradation in Southwestern Bangladesh. 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Ltd., New Delhi, pp 17–52 DoF (2013) National fish week compendium (in Bengali). Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries & Livestock, Dhaka, p 144 Dutta AK, Iftekhar MS (2004) Tree species survival in the homestead forests of salt affected areas: a perception analysis for Bangladesh. J Biol Sci 4:309–313 Fleming C (2004) Challenges facing the shrimp industry in Bangladesh. American International School, Dhaka Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2007) Case study. Climate variability and change: adaptation to drought in Bangladesh. A resource book and training guide. FAO of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. An internet FAO Corporate Document Repository Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2011) Water quality for agriculture. www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/T0234E/T0234E02.htm Gain P (1995) Attack of the shrimps. TWR 59:18–19 Gale J, Koenig R, Barnhill J (2001) Managing soil pH in Utah. Utah State University, no AG-SO-07 Habiba U, Abedin MA, Shaw R, Hassan AWR (2013) Salinity-induced livelihood strees in coastal region of Bangladesh. In: Water insecurity: a social dilemma, community, environment and disaster risk management, vol 13. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp 139–165 Hannan A (1980) Impact of reduced low flow of the Ganges. Paper presented at the seminar “Impact of low flow of major rivers of Bangladesh” organized by the Department of Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), 23 August, Dhaka, 23pp Haque SA (2006) Salinity problems and crop production in coastal regions of Bangladesh. Pak J Bot 38(5):1359–1365 Hossain L, Hossain MK, Salam MA, Rubaiyat (2012) Seasonal variation of soil salinity in coastal areas of Bangladesh. Int J Environ Sci, Manag Eng Res 1(4):172–178 Islam MR (2004) Where land meets the sea: a profile of the coastal zone of Bangladesh. The University Press Limited, Dhaka Islam MSN (2008) Cultural landscape changing due to anthropogenic influences on surface water and threats to mangrove wetland ecosystems: a case study on the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. PhD thesis, Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus Islam MS, Haque M (2004) The mangrove-based coastal and near shore fisheries of Bangladesh: ecology, exploitation and management. Rev Fish Biol Fish 14:153–180 Islam MA, Sattar MA, Alam MS (1999) Scientific report on impact of shrimp farming on soil and water quality of some selected areas in the Greater Khulna District. Research and Development Collective (RDC), Dhaka, Bangladesh Karim MF, Mimura N (2006) Sea level rise in the Bay of Bengal: its impacts and adaptations in Bangladesh. Center for Water Environment Studies, Ibaraki University, Hitachi, Ibaraki, Japan. Microsoft PowerPoint – Poster for IOC_02June06_Karim Karim Z, Saheed SM, Salauddin ABM, Alam MK, Huq A (1982) Coastal saline soils and their management in Bangladesh. Soils publication, vol 8. BARC, Dhaka, p 33 golam.rabbani@bcas.net A.Z.Md. Moslehuddin et al. 212 Karim Z, Hussain SG, Ahmed M (1990) Salinity problems and crop intensification in the coastal regions of Bangladesh. Soils publication, vol 33. BARC, Dhaka, p 17 Khatun S, Flowers TJ (1995) Effects of salinity on seed set in rice. Plant Cell Environ 18(1):61–67 Miah MY, Mannan MA, Quddus KG, Mahmud MAG, Baida T (2004) Salinity on cultivable land and its effects on crops. Pak J Bot 7:1322–1326 Miyan MA (2009) Monsoon in Bangladesh, changes and adaptation: Asian monsoon years AMY6, Kunming, China, 30 November–01 December MOEF (Ministry of Environment and Forest) (2006) Impact of sea-level rise on land use suitability and adaptation options: coastal land zoning in the Southwest. Dhaka, Bangladesh MoEF (Ministry of Environment and Forests) (2007) Bangladesh: national programme of action for protection of the coastal and marine environment from land-based activities. http://www. doebd.org/npadraft.pdf MoWR (Ministry of Water Resources) (2005) Coastal zone policy. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Rahman MM (2012) Enhancement of resilience of coastal community in Bangladesh through crop diversification in adaptation to climate change impacts. MS thesis, Postgraduate Programs in Disaster Management BRAC University, Dhaka Rahman MM, Ahsan M (2001) Salinity constraints and agricultural productivity in coastal saline area of Bangladesh, soil resources in Bangladesh: assessment and utilization. Proceedings of the annual workshop on soil resources, 14–15 February 2001. Soil Resources Development Institute, Dhaka, pp 1–14 Seal L, Baten MA (2012) Salinity intrusion in interior coast: a new challenge to agriculture in South Central part of Bangladesh. A working draft, Climate Change, Biodiversity and Disaster Risk Reduction Unit, Unnayan Onneshan – The Innovators, enter for Research and Action on Development, 47 p Singaraval R, Balasundaram SK, Johnson K (1996) Physicochemical characteristics and nutrient status of coastal saline soils of Tamil Nadu. J Ind Soc Coastal Agric Res 14(1&2):59–61 Sarwar GM, Khan MH (2007) Sea level rise. A threat to the coast of Bangladesh. Internationales Asienforum 38(3–4):375–397 SRDI (1989–2002) Land and soil resources utilization guide (In Bengali). Respective Thana/ Upazila of nine districts. Soil Resource Development Institute, Krishi Khamar Sarak, Dhaka SRDI (Soil Resource Development Institute) (1997) Soil salinity in Bangladesh, Farm gate, Dhaka, Bangladesh SRDI (Soil Resource Development Institute) (2010) Soil salinity report 2010 of Bangladesh. Soil Resources Development Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh The Daily Ittefaq (2011) Retrieved from http://news.ittefaq.com.bd/newsview/61220/2011-12-11/1. Accessed 20 Aug 2014 Tho N, Vromant N, Hung NT, Hens L (2007) Soil salinity and sodicity in a shrimp farming coastal area of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Environ Geol 8:1739 World Bank (2000) Bangladesh: climate change & sustainable development. Report No. 21104, BD, Dhaka golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security Rezaur Rahman and M. Shahjahan Mondal Abstract Historically, the main focus of water resources management in Bangladesh has been to increase rice production in order to ensure food security. Since early 1960s there has been large scale development of flood control projects which provide protection against repeated floods to safeguard standing rice crop. There are different types of flood control projects providing protection against different types of floods with various degrees of success. Right now, almost all of flood prone cultivable areas are protected from floods. Additionally, other aspects of flood management have improved over the years, which are being observed to result in higher rice production after flood. Since early 1980s, irrigation facilities have been developed to supply water during dry season which has made it possible to grow an additional rice crop during this season. By now, most of irrigable areas have been brought under irrigation coverage by various modes of irrigation technologies. This paper reviews the contributions of these two developments in water sector in increasing rice production of the country. Keywords Flood control • Irrigation development • Rice production • Bangladesh 12.1 Land, Water and People Bangladesh is a small country with large population. It has a total land area of about 147,500 sq. km supporting a population of 153 million at a density of 1,034 people per sq. km, among the highest in the world. The net cultivable area is 7.8 million ha with a land availability of only 0.05 ha per person. Water availability is rather high at 8,051 cubic meter per capita but with a large temporal and spatial variation. Physiographically, Bangladesh is a floodplain country. About 80 % of the land area is basically floodplain of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system. Regular flood is therefore a basic feature of the country and in extreme years R. Rahman (*) • M.S. Mondal Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: rezaur@iwfm.buet.ac.bd © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_12 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 213 R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 214 Fig. 12.1 Area cultivated for different crops (Source: BBS 2011a) two-thirds of the area may be flooded. While agriculture system is overwhelmed during large floods, it is also stressed from water scarcity during dry season. Bangladesh has abundance of crop varieties. More than 100 crops can be found in the floodplain. However, due to favorable agro-ecological regime, rice has been the principal crop. About 80 % of the cropped area is used for rice cultivation (Fig. 12.1). Rice production constitutes 91 % of total food grain production, while wheat contributes 3 % and maize another 6 %. Rice is the staple food for a typical Bengali. It constitutes 40 % of food intake and more than 90 % of total cereal intake. Therefore, production of enough rice has been the main agenda of food security in Bangladesh. The country has made remarkable progress in recent years in ensuring this food security. Rice production alone now stands at 34 million metric tons against a total food grain (rice, wheat and maize) requirement of 30 million metric tons. As rice is a water intensive crop, water resource management played a crucial role in ensuring this food security. Water management during monsoon, in the form of flood control in order to safeguard the monsoon rice crop was the first management practice put in place in the early 1960s. In the early 1980s, the emphasis shifted towards dry season water management in the form of development of irrigation facilities to support the rapidly emerging practice of rice cultivation during the dry season. 12.2 12.2.1 Food Security Food Habit Traditionally, Bengalis are known to be rice and fish eating populace. The predominantly aquatic environment of the country favors production of these two food items aplenty. The current food basket of an average Bengali is shown in Fig. 12.2. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 215 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security a b c Rice 22.5% 2.9% 41.6% 4.9% 8.0% 45.7% 14.6% 6.7% 2.6% Other cereals 13.3% 19.1% 1.5% 62.0% 2 Meat, eggs 8.4% 23.6% Vegetables Fish 10.7% Other 4.8% 7.3% Fig. 12.2 Food basket of a typical Bengali. (a) Food intake. (b) Calorie intake. (c) Protein intake (Source of data: BBS 2011b) It is seen that rice contributes 41 % to total food consumption of 1,000 gm/capita/day, 62 % of calorie intake of 2,318 calorie/capita/day and 46 % of protein intake of 66 gm/capita/day, way ahead of any other food item. Fish supplements more than half of animal protein intake. 12.2.2 Food Security Policies Rice being the staple food of the general population, the food security concern of the country has always been equivalent to production of sufficient rice. Consecutive floods in the 1950s and the consequent large scale damage to monsoon rice, namely Aman which was basically the only rice type during that time, prompted the-then Pakistan Government to formulate a water resources master plan for the-then East Pakistan focusing on flood control to safeguard the flood season rice from such repeated damages. The objective of the plan was to become self sufficient in rice production within the plan period of 1965–1985. After the country became independent in 1971, it set attaining self-sufficiency in food grain (mainly rice) production as the principal aim in the very first 5 year plan (1973–1978) of the country. The focus on this food security was somewhat lost during the 1990s due to global market and trade liberalization trends during that time. The food security issue regained its focus after the world-wide food crisis in 2007 which occurred due to widespread damage to food crops simultaneously in many countries from varieties of natural disasters. Bangladesh itself suffered from two floods and a cyclone in that year. The food security concern received added impetus as it was apprehended during that time that such food crises due to natural calamities will become all the more common in future due to climate change. Despite many challenges including the challenge of scarce land, variable water resources and high population growth, attaining self sufficiency in rice production in recent past has been a major achievement for Bangladesh. Rice production tripled from 11 million tons in 1972 to 32 million tons in 2009. During this time, population doubled from around 70 million to 140 million. Per capita availability of rice increased from 140 kg in 1972 to 180 kg in 2008 (Alam and Islam 2013). golam.rabbani@bcas.net R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 216 Fig. 12.3 Crop calendar for different varieties of rice in different land types (Adapted from Yu et al. 2010) Talukder (2005) estimates that with the stipulated food grain requirement criterion of 454 gm (16 ounces/capita/day), Bangladesh became self-sufficient in food grain production by year 2000 and by the year of 2005–2006, there was a surplus production of more than one million ton. 12.2.3 Rice Production System The agriculture system in Bangladesh is flood dependent and farmers’ choice of the rice variety is based largely on normal flooding characteristics. The cultivable lands are therefore classified according to average flood depth as shown in Fig. 12.3. Highlands are considered to be flood free. Other land types – medium highland, medium lowland, lowland and bottomland, are subject to various ranges of flooding and together constitute more than 60 % of cultivable land. There are three major rice types – Aman (flood season rice), Boro (dry season rice) and Aus (inter-period rice). Aus is rarely damaged by flood, while Boro and Aman are highly susceptible to flood damage. An early flood may affect harvesting of Boro crop while it may cause delay in transplantation of Aman crop. The purpose of the flood control projects was to transform, medium highlands and lowlands into flood free highlands by the exclusion of external river flooding from protected areas. This allowed replacement of lower yielding deepwater rice (broadcast Aman) by high yielding variety (HYV) transplanted Aman on these flood free lands. Figure 12.4 shows the changes in areas cultivated for different types of rice over the years. Earlier Aman was the main crop as seen in the figure but later Boro golam.rabbani@bcas.net 217 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security Cultivated Areas in million ha 7 6 Aman 5 Boro 4 3 2 Aus 1 2007 2009 2005 2003 2001 1997 1999 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 0 Year Fig. 12.4 Area under cultivation of different rice types coverage increased sharply. Area under Aman cultivation has remained almost unchanged over the years although much of the area has shifted from local to high yielding varieties. Cultivation of Aus has declined in the mean time especially after introduction of Boro since Aman-Boro cropping pattern is more productive and leaves little room to cultivate inter-seasonal Aus rice which has the lowest yield among the three types. Currently, the shares of Aman, Boro and Aus in total rice cropped area of 11.48 million hectares (Mha) are 49 %, 41 % and 10 %, respectively. 12.2.4 Water Resource Management Water resource management in Bangladesh has traditionally been agriculture focused. Flood control to manage monsoon excess and groundwater irrigation to manage dry season scarcity have been the principal instruments of this management. About 88 % of water use in Bangladesh is for agriculture while municipal water use is 10 % and the rest 2 % is used for industrial purposes (FAO AQUASTAT 2011). The IECO Master Plan (IECO 1964) was the first water resources management plan for the country. The Plan was focused on flood control and it had a portfolio of 58 large scale public sector projects involving embankments for flood control, gravity irrigation through canal system and pumping stations for drainage and irrigation. Most of the projects under the plan have been implemented. In the 1980s, groundwater irrigation in private sector took off which revolutionized the dry season rice production system. This was facilitated by newer technology which made small shallow pumps affordable for individual farmers and a government golam.rabbani@bcas.net 218 R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal policy which removed restriction on groundwater use (Hossain 2009). As a result, the dry season irrigation has become heavily groundwater dependent. National Water Management Plan (WARPO 2001) was formulated on the basis of National Water Policy (MoWR 1999) which was holistic in nature. The Plan therefore focused more on integrated management of water resources rather than for traditional agricultural purposes. The Plan did not propose any new flood control project rather it sets a program for rationalization of existing flood control infrastructure. Regarding irrigation, it promotes expansion of minor irrigation and use of surface water over groundwater. National Agriculture Policy (MoA 2013) also promotes use of surface water over groundwater. 12.3 12.3.1 Wet Season Water Resources Management Flood History Flood is a normal phenomenon in Bangladesh, which becomes devastating occasionally. In a normal year, around 20–25 % of the area is flooded. Figure 12.5 shows year-wise flooding since mid 1950s. Due to construction of many flood control projects, flood started declining after the 1970s as seen in Fig. 12.5. Most of the flood prone areas where flood protection is practical have already been brought under protection. According to Rahman and Chowdhury (1999) flood protected area during the 30-year period of 1964–1993 increased at a rate of 120,000 ha per year resulting in a reduction of flooded area at a rate of 80,000 ha per year. However, it is seen that large floods have become more frequent such as in 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007. There have been large scale crop damages from these floods as presented in Table 12.1. The crop failure in 1974 created especially difficult situation for a newly independent country leading to a famine causing death of more than a million people. Flood affected area (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Year Fig. 12.5 Chronology of flood golam.rabbani@bcas.net 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 219 Table 12.1 Crop damages during major floods Year 1974 1987 1988 1998 Inundated area (%) 36 39 60 68 Rice production losses (million tons) 2.00 0.80 1.65 2.06 Source of production loss data: Data for 1974 and 1987 are from Ahmad and the rest are from Yu et al. (2010) 2004 2007 38 42 1.00 1.2 Ahmed (2003); Fig. 12.6 Flood types in Bangladesh (Source: Brammer and Khan, 1991) 12.3.2 Types of Floods and Flood Control There are four types of floods that occur in Bangladesh. These are monsoon flood, flash flood, tidal flood and rainfall flood. The areas affected by these floods are shown in Fig. 12.6. The monsoon flood is the main flood and occurs along the major rivers. The flash flood occurs mostly in the hilly districts of north-eastern and eastern parts of the country. The coastal region suffers from regular tidal inundation. The south-western and north-western parts of the country are vulnerable to rainfall flood. Various types of flood control projects have been built over the years to golam.rabbani@bcas.net R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 220 Fig. 12.7 Distribution of flood control projects in Bangladesh (Courtesy: Center for Environmental and Geographical Information Services (CEGIS)) protect crop lands against different floods. Total flood protected area now stands at 6 Mha under 544 projects. The distribution of these flood control projects is shown in Fig. 12.7. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 221 The monsoon flood is caused by overflowing water of the rivers of the GBM river system. Origin of these flood flows is heavy rainfall in the GBM basin and mostly beyond the borders of the country. The flood depth may be as high as 7.6 m, as in 1988 and the duration may be more than 2 months as in 1998. Aman crops are damaged due to higher depth and longer duration of these floods. Farmers try to recuperate from this flood by making a second transplantation if there is time still available. The most common strategy employed against monsoon flood is embankment along the major rivers. The Brahmaputra Right Embankment is the largest project of such type. The embankment is 220 km long along the right bank of the Brahmaputra (Fig. 12.7) which protects 225,000 ha of land from flood of the Brahmaputra. The flash flood occurs during the pre-monsoon period due to heavy rainfall, convective in nature. This shorter duration flood causes heavy damage to standing Boro crops due to sudden onset and high velocity. Since Boro is the only crop in the deeply flooded north-eastern basin, the impact of such floods on agricultural livelihood is very high. Submersible embankments are engaged to provide protection against flash floods. These embankments are low height embankments giving protection against pre-monsoon flood but not against very high monsoon flood on practical and environmental grounds. The embankments therefore remain submerged during monsoon. There are 1,155 km of such embankments under 31 submersible flood control projects providing protection to 266,326 ha. These projects are situated in north-eastern part of the country as shown in Fig. 12.7. The coast suffers from regular tidal flooding. The flooding is short duration in nature but the salinity causes damage to Aman crop. Against this tidal flooding, another embankment based solution, polder which encircles an area, is engaged. Since 1960s, 123 polders have been constructed in the coast with a total length of embankments at 5,017 km providing protection to 800,000 ha of cultivable land. Rainfall flooding occurs when internal rainfall is so high that it overwhelms the drainage capacity of local rivers and channels. The resulting water congestion from heavy rainfall can be very long, which may lead to abandonment of an entire crop season. The south-west region is particularly vulnerable to such flooding. Resuscitation of drainage channels and in few cases pumping, as in Meghna-Dhonagoda Irrigation Project (see Fig. 12.7), are adapted to relieve drainage congestion. 12.3.3 Performance of Flood Control Projects FPCO (1992) in their evaluation of 17 flood control projects found large increase in monsoon paddy production. The increase in monsoon paddy production in cases was as high as 2 tons/ha. This increase was achieved by the predictable shift of cultivation to HYV transplanted Aman from deepwater Aman. MPO (1991) also found similar shift in cultivation practice in their study of eight flood control projects. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 222 R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal In Bangladesh, protection against tidal flooding in the coast and flash flooding in the north-east region has been more successful than protection against major river monsoon flood. Lack of drainage facilities and the risk of embankment breaches and erosion are major limiting factors for protection works against major river monsoon floods. Limiting factors for submersible embankments are the risk of early overtopping and post-monsoon drainage facilities. The success of coastal polders has mainly been due to their success in salinity exclusion. However, the drainage congestion due to siltation of surrounding rivers as a result of extensive poldering has become a major problem in the coast. In case of local flooding and internal drainage basins, the main limitation is lack of sufficient drainage facilities, but problems of external impacts and public cuts (by outsiders and insiders) are particularly acute in this project type. 12.3.4 Regional Impact of Flood Control Projects Production ('000 ton) 1000 600 Aman Flood protected area 500 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 2008 2002 2005 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1978 1981 1975 1969 1972 1963 1966 1960 1957 1951 1954 1948 0 Year Fig. 12.8 Growth of flood protected area and Aman production in Greater Khulna district golam.rabbani@bcas.net Flood protected area ('000 ha) While flood control projects protect the internal area from flood, it raises flood level in the unprotected external area. As a result, the flood damage may rise in the unprotected area. The net effect on agricultural production may then be significantly less than the effect within the project area. It is therefore necessary to look into the impact of flood control projects on agricultural production in a regional scale also. Figure 12.8 shows the result of an analysis of performance of flood control projects in regional scale. It compares the year wise Aman rice production with the growth of flood control projects in Greater Khulna district (Khulna, Satkhira and Bagerhat districts in south-western region – see Fig. 12.7), one of the most intensely flood protected area with more than 90 % of cultivable area under different polders to protect Aman crop against tidal floods. It is reasonable to expect that Aman production will show an increase in proportion to the increase in flood protected area. But from this graph it is difficult to discern any such relationship. So it can be said 223 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security that while individual projects might have had positive impact on crop production, their net regional impact has been less. Such analyses were carried out by Rahman and Chowdhury (1999) for other districts and similar conclusions were drawn raising the efficacy issue of flood control projects in a floodplain environment. On the other hand, submersible embankments in the north-east region which gives protection to Boro crop against pre-monsoon flash floods have been rather successful in regional scale. Saleh and Mondal (2009) found that collectively, the submersible embankments have been able to raise Boro production in the northeastern region. Since the submersible embankment projects have less impact on regional flood flow because they provide only partial flood protection, so their impact on external flood is less and this can be considered as a major reason for their success. 12.3.5 Flood Versus Flood Control Year Flood affected area Aus Aman Fig. 12.9 Relationship between crop production and flood golam.rabbani@bcas.net Boro Total Production Flood affected area (% of the country) 2010 2013 2007 2004 2001 1995 1998 1992 1989 1986 0 1983 10 0 1980 5 1974 20 1977 30 10 1968 15 1971 40 1965 50 20 1962 60 25 1956 30 1959 70 1953 80 35 1950 40 1947 Rice production (million tons) While flood damages standing crops when it occurs, the crop production after the flood usually more than compensates the loss during the flood. This is due to better soil moisture condition, improved soil fertility and in recent times more effective government support to farmers with inputs and logistics in subsequent crop seasons after a flood (see Haruisha et al. 2005). The increase in rice production after recent floods have been impressive as can be seen in Fig. 12.9. It is seen that after a major flood (e.g. 1988, 1998, 2004, 2007) there has always been a leap in the rice production and most importantly this increase in rice production is retained over the following years. It seems that flood almost acts as a trigger to reach next higher level of rice production. R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 224 Based on preceding discussions, it can be argued that ironically flood has been more instrumental in increasing crop production than flood control projects. The need therefore is to take advantage of normal flood and control the damaging flood. It requires a shift in water resources management tactics during monsoon from flood control to controlled flooding. This shift in approach is already gaining traction in the country (see Rahman and Salehin 2013). 12.4 Dry Season Water Resources Management Bangladesh experiences a tropical monsoonal climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. In the dry season, evapo-transpiration is much higher than the dependable rainfall and consequently irrigation is required for cultivating crops. Irrigation development in Bangladesh has been by a host of technologies – deep tube well (DTW), shallow tube well (STW), low lift pump (LLP), manual lifting, traditional equipment and diversion by gravitational flow. The country has witnessed a phenomenal increase in its irrigated area. The total irrigated area was about 1.2 Mha in 1972–1973, immediately after its independence in 1971, and such area increased to about 6.6 Mha in 2010–2011 (Fig. 12.10). The average increase was about 145,000 ha per annum. The rate of increase in the total area has also grown over the years due to changes in government policies. The time line of irrigation development in Bangladesh can be divided into three overlapping phases as discussed below. 7.0 Irrigated area (Mha) 6.0 Total DTW STW 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 1990 1986 1982 1978 1974 1970 0.0 Year Fig. 12.10 Time series of irrigation development in Bangladesh (Source of data: different statistical yearbooks of Bangladesh published by BBS; Total irrigated area in the figure indicates the irrigation coverage by all modes using both surface and groundwater) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 12.4.1 225 Public Agency Managed Large-Scale Project for Surface Water Development The development of modern irrigation in Bangladesh started in 1950s with LLP irrigation in Kishoreganj district in the north-eastern part of the country. However, the farmers received the irrigation water first from a large-scale constructed facility in 1962–1963 with the commencement of the Ganges-Kobadak Project (see Fig. 12.7), the first irrigation project in the south-western part of the country. Since then a number of projects with irrigation component including Chandpur Irrigation Project, Dhaka-Narayanganj-Demra Project, Monu River Project, Meghna-Dhonagoda Irrigation Project, Teesta Barrage Project and others were implemented in different parts of the country. These projects were large-scale, surface water based public undertakings in line with the government strategy and plan for economic development during the 1950s and 1960s. A large sum of foreign aid was made available to these projects through the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, the Canadian International Development Agency, European Economic Community, etc. The major objectives of these projects were to increase food production and to achieve self-sufficiency in food grain production by reducing flooding, improving drainage, preventing overland seawater intrusion, or providing irrigation facilities. Though the earlier projects, such as the Ganges-Kobadak Project, were designed to provide supplementary irrigation to Aman rice, the later projects were also designed to expand Boro rice area in the dry period and to shift from the local varieties of rice to the high yielding varieties. The performance of these large-scale surface water projects in irrigation development has not been satisfactory (Lindquist 1989). The irrigation coverage by the large-scale surface water projects with gravity flow has only been about 0.4 % of the total irrigated area up to the year of 2010–2011 (BADC 2011). The large-scale surface water project also supplies irrigation water with LLPs, the irrigation coverage of which is not available separately. Also, the irrigation coverage by the surface water during the dry season has remained around 1 Mha throughout the last three decades (Fig. 12.11). The contribution of surface water to the total irrigation coverage has declined over the years. The contribution during early 1980s was about 60 %, which has decreased to about 20 % in recent years. Delays in project implementation, inadequate budgetary allocation for routine operation and maintenance and post-flood rehabilitation, lack of sufficient water for irrigation during the dry season, lack of adequate mechanism for agricultural development, poor inter-agency coordination and inadequate consideration of socio-cultural complexities are among the major factors for the poor performance of the large-scale projects. In addition, cost recovery in this type of project has been very low. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 226 1400 70 1200 60 1000 50 800 40 600 30 20 400 area 200 10 coverage (%) SW irrigation coverage (%) SW irrigated area ('000 ha) R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 0 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 0 Fig. 12.11 Time series of the surface water (SW) irrigated area and coverage as a percentage of the total irrigated area (Source of data: BADC 2011) 12.4.2 Public Agency Managed Deep Tube Well Based Groundwater Development The use of groundwater for irrigation in Bangladesh began in the early 1960s with the installation of DTWs in the northern district of Thakurgaon by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). These tube wells were heavily subsidized and agency managed. Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) started exploitation of groundwater in similar time with the installation of DTWs in Comilla area. These tube wells were rented against fixed yearly charges to the farmers’ cooperative societies (KSSs) organized by the Integrated Rural Development Program (IRDP) of Comilla under the Thana Irrigation Program. The program was thereafter expanded throughout the country by the Bangladesh Rural Development Board (BRDB). The BWDB owned DTWs suffered major performance problems (IIMI and BAU 1996) and the BRDB-KSS managed DTW schemes soon experienced a high drop-out due to the problem of cooperation amongst the KSS members and between the KSS and non-KSS members (Mandal 1989). From the late 1970s through the early 1980s, there was a continued effort to decrease public involvement in minor irrigation. There was a move to discontinue DTW and LLP rental programs and to sell both new and old DTWs and LLPs to groups in the private sector. However, the Government maintained its control on DTW siting and installation through the late 1980s and major donors continued to support large subsidies throughout the 1980s despite the poor economic showing of this technology. A major change in groundwater irrigation governance occurred in 1989, when the Government withdrew the installation, use and siting restrictions of minor irrigation equipment by suspending the Groundwater Management Rules, 1987. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 227 BADC stopped DTW installation after 1989–1990 through its rental and sale programs. Since 1990, the trend of irrigation development by DTWs has been slightly higher than the past (Fig. 12.10). Currently, about 33,670 numbers of DTWs are in operation, of which 13,830 numbers by BADC and 12,822 numbers by BMDA. About 14 % of the irrigation coverage is presently by DTWs. It must be noted here that the DTW growth has not shown itself to be sustainable in an unsubsidized environment (Fig. 12.10). 12.4.3 Privately Owned Shallow Tube Well Irrigation The IECO Master Plan of 1964 largely ignored minor irrigation development through wells on the assumption that it would be costly. The tube well technology did not spread rapidly during the 1960s and 1970s because of Government’s heavy bias towards flood control, and lack of political and financial commitment to alternatives (Hanratty 1983). The expansion of the tube well technology was also constrained by the lack of comprehensive knowledge about groundwater resources. In the early 1970s after liberation and following the Land and Water Resources Sector Study (IBRD 1972), the Government’s main strategies for economic development were to take short gestation, low capital and quick yielding projects. These were manifested in the country’s first 5 year plan (1973–1978), first 2 year plan (1978–1980) and the second 5 year plan (1980–1985). A fundamental change in the government policy occurred in the late 1970s with the adoption of the policy of privatization of minor irrigation equipment along with the distribution of fertilizers, seeds and pesticides. Under the privatization program, STWs and DTWs were introduced in the late 1970s and early 1980s through the extended and liberalized credit policies. This involved the selling of LLPs and DTWs as mentioned earlier, and the acceleration in the sales of STWs by BADC either for cash or with BRDB loans advanced through the KSSs. The sale of tube wells was also promoted through the liberalized credit advanced from the commercial banks, of which the Bangladesh Krishi Bank was the biggest lender. Irrigation related government institutions were restructured at this time. All these above changes led to a massive expansion in the tube well irrigation. Figure 12.10 shows that the irrigation coverage in the country is increasing steadily since early 1990s. This may be primarily in response to the suspension of the Groundwater Management Rules in 1989, the removal of the ban on importation of small diesel engines in 1987, and the elimination of import duties on irrigation equipment and rescinding of regulations on engine standardization in 1988–1989. The availability of water at shallow depth, comparatively low unit cost and relatively easy sinking, operation and maintenance of the technology made rapid expansion of STW irrigation in the country. The number of operational STWs in the country in 1982–1983 was 0.09 million, which increased to 1.55 million in 2010–2011. The irrigated area by STWs in 1982–1983 golam.rabbani@bcas.net R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 228 Table 12.2 Irrigation coverage by different modes Mode of No. of operational equipment development in rabi season of 2010–2011 DTW 33,670 STW 1,549,149 LLP 173,669 Gravity n/a Manual n/a Traditional n/a Source: BADC (2011) Note: n/a is not available Irrigated area (thousand ha) in rabi season of 2010–2011 719.2 3,505.3 1,010.0 19.1 6.4 3.8 Irrigation coverage (%) 13.7 66.6 19.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 Irrigated area (Mha) 6.0 5.0 Total 4.0 Aman Boro 3.0 2.0 1.0 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 0.0 Year Fig. 12.12 Time series of irrigated rice areas in Bangladesh (Note: Total area in the figure includes Boro, Aman and Aus rice irrigated areas) was only about 0.4 Mha, which increased to 3.5 Mha in 2010–11. The contribution of STW to total irrigated area currently stands at about 67 %. The recent irrigation coverage by different modes of development is given in Table 12.2. 12.4.4 Challenges Ahead Quality seeds, irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides are the major inputs for agricultural production. Increasing use of these inputs is contributing to the increasing agricultural production. The Boro rice irrigation has increased rapidly since late 1980s (Fig. 12.12). However, the increase in the Aman rice irrigation has not been much and the crop is still dominantly rainfed. The use of chemical fertilizers increased rapidly up to the year of 1995–1996 (Fig. 12.13). However, it seems that the use of these fertilizers has stabilized since then. The use of pesticides increased exponentially until very recently. Though it appears that the use of both fertilizer and pesticide has stabilized, the production is golam.rabbani@bcas.net 229 3500 60000 3000 50000 2500 Fertilizer 2000 Pesticide 40000 30000 1500 20000 1000 Pesticide use (t) Fertilizer use ('000 t) 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 10000 500 0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0 Year Fig. 12.13 Time series of fertilizer and pesticide use in Bangladesh 4.5 4.0 Yield (t/ha) 3.5 Aus Aman Boro 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 0.0 Year Fig. 12.14 Time series of rice yields in Bangladesh still increasing (Fig. 12.9) due mainly to the increasing irrigation coverage and continuous replacement of local rice varieties by the improved varieties. These contributed to the increases in yields of the Aus, Aman and Boro rice (Fig. 12.14) at the rates of 12, 17 and 43 kg/ha-year, respectively. The contribution of the cropping intensity has been minimal as it has not changed much since the early 1990s. The population of the country is projected to be about 181 million by 2025 (WARPO 2000). To feed the ever increasing population, agricultural production, especially food grain production, will have to be increased. According to WARPO (2000), there would be a shortfall of 6.4 Mt of clean rice in 2025. The shortfall in 2050 is projected to be about 9.0 Mt. Though the present production level of rice is adequate to meet the present demand and the demand in the near future, there are a golam.rabbani@bcas.net 230 R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal number of challenges in maintaining a production level which is commensurate to the population growth. Firstly, the cultivable area of the country is declining at a rate of 1 % per year (MoA 2013) due mainly to increased settlement, industrial and commercial uses. The land available for agriculture is likely to decrease to 7.0 Mha in 2025 from 8.4 Mha in 2000 (WARPO 2000). Moreover, about 30 % of the cultivable land in Bangladesh is in the coastal and off-shore areas, of which about 37 % is affected by varying degrees of salinity. Cropping and irrigation intensities are considerably lower in the saline areas compared to the non-saline areas. Spatial extent of saline area is increasing over time due to reduction in freshwater inflow into the rivers from upstream, introduction of brackish water for shrimp cultivation, increase in high tidal water level, cyclonic storm surge led inundation, etc. (SRDI 2012; Mondal et al. 2013). Salt affected area in the country has increased by about 27 % between 1973 and 2009 (SRDI 2012). Unless the current trend of conversion of fertile agricultural land for non-agricultural uses is arrested with the introduction of land use act, which is currently lacking, the food grain security of the country will be at risk. Secondly, the availability of water, in terms of both quantity and quality, may pose a constraint to agricultural expansion and intensification. In some areas, such as Dhaka, Tangail, Rajshahi and Bogra, there is already evidence of groundwater mining. Excessive groundwater withdrawal has affected drinking water supplies using hand tube wells. The village ponds which are used by the local people for bathing, cleaning, washing, cooking and subsistence aquaculture become dry in many places during the critical dry period. The base-flow to the rivers, particularly to the small and regional rivers, has reduced significantly and many rivers now become dry during the dry months. This drying of local wells, ponds and rivers is adversely affecting the lives and livelihoods of the rural people, particularly the poor, women and children. Surface and groundwater salinity is a major constraint to irrigation development in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The situation is likely to aggravate with the rising sea level induced by the global climate change, reduced freshwater flow due to upstream diversion, increased groundwater withdrawal and extended brackish water aquaculture. The groundwater of the shallow aquifer is arsenic contaminated in major parts of the country. This contamination is often blamed to the exploitation of groundwater for irrigation with STWs (GED 2011). Also, there is a general concern that arsenic can enter the food chain, although the concern is not firmly established (WARPO 2000). In addition to the groundwater resource constraint, the surface water resource is continuously decreasing and deteriorating. The water bodies of the country are being continuously encroached upon and filled in illegally by the powerful section of the society due to lax regulation and poor water and environmental governance (Mondal et al. 2014). The water quality of the rivers near urban and industrial areas, particularly surrounding Dhaka City, has deteriorated so badly that this water is not suitable even for irrigation (Rahman and Mondal 2013). Also, there is a strong likelihood that some water will be transferred to urban areas and industries from agriculture with the increasing urbanization and industrialization trends of the country. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 231 All these will put the rice cultivation system with standing water under pressure and maintaining rice self-sufficiency would be a challenging task. Also, there is concern that too much reliance on rice cultivation in all seasons and areas has restricted crop diversification and created problems of soil nutrient mining and pest prevalence (Hasanuzzaman 2003). Mondal and Wasimi (2007) and Mondal et al. (2010) have shown that Bangladesh is already facing a water shortage during the critical months of March, April and May. For example, total demand for water in March within the GBM basins in the country is estimated to be about 30 billion cubic meters (BCM). The available supply from major and regional rivers, underground aquifer, static water bodies, etc., in the same month is about 25 BCM resulting in a demand–supply ratio of about 1.20 (Mondal 2011). This ratio would be higher for the drought-prone west-central region due to higher evapo-transpiration and lower rainfall compared to the rest of the country. This ratio would be even further higher in the salinity-affected southern coastal region due to leaching requirement for salts and physical scarcity of fresh water. Additionally, the water security of the country will be at risk if a further diversion takes place in the upstream co-riparian countries from the trans-boundary rivers, a worst possible climate change occurs, or the groundwater becomes unsuitable for use due to arsenic contamination. Thirdly, though Bangladesh is currently self-sustaining in rice production due to the favorable climate that has prevailed over the country since 2008 (except the cyclone Aila in 2009), the sufficiency is likely to be at risk in the event of a largescale natural hazard such as flood unless buffer storage facility is created. The Aman rice contributes about 38 % to the total current rice production which is vulnerable to the monsoonal flooding and post-monsoonal cyclone, and the Boro rice contributes about 56 % which is vulnerable to the pre-monsoonal flooding, cyclone, tornado and drought. A good harvest of Boro can support the rice demand over a period of about seven months from May to November. For the rice demand in the remaining five months, the country also need a good harvest of Aman. If either of the two harvests is affected significantly by a natural disaster, the country is likely to face a deficit which is very likely under a future scenario of increasing climate variability and change. Furthermore, it appears from the Fig. 12.9 that the country has reached almost at its upper limit of rice production. Fourthly, the net irrigable area of the country was about 7.56 Mha during the mid-1990s. By the present time, that area has significantly reduced due to conversion of irrigable lands for non-agricultural uses. The recent irrigation coverage is estimated to be about 6.15 Mha based on BBS (2012) data. Thus it appears that there is not much scope for expansion of irrigation due to land constraint. There is also evidence that people in some areas are reverting to non-rice crops from their earlier practice of Boro rice due to unavailability of adequate irrigation water and higher profitability of non-rice crops. Also, to discourage excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, the Government has recently reinstated the Groundwater Management Rules of 1987 and imposed siting restrictions on tube wells. It is thus likely that the irrigation sector will not get any significant increase in freshwater supplies in future unless large-scale surface water development targeting golam.rabbani@bcas.net R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal 232 major rivers are undertaken. An initiative by BADC is now underway to develop surface water in the south-central coastal region, but its success cannot be predicted at this moment given the poor outcome of similar initiative earlier through the Barisal Irrigation Project. The feasibility study of the proposed Ganges Barrage Project is also now underway which may bring some more areas in the south-west and south-central regions under irrigation once the project is implemented. The Government policy also very recently has shifted towards surface water development (GED 2011; MoA 2013). Though the experience of the surface water based large-scale projects in irrigation development has not been favorable, the move will allow conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and provide long-term water security which is particularly important to deal with the future climatic and upstream diversion uncertainties and risks. Bangladesh suffers from inefficiency in irrigation water use. On an average, about 1,075 mm of water is used against a net irrigation requirement of about 370 mm to cultivate Boro rice in the country. The dominant practice in rice irrigation has been through the maintenance of standing water on a farm which increases losses. The current irrigation efficiency of the country is about 34 % against the potential of about 50 % (Alam 2011). To compare, the irrigation efficiency in India is about 38 % (Planning Commission 2009) and that in China is about 48 %. Thus, programs should be undertaken to increase irrigation efficiency and water productivity through improvement in distribution system, on-farm water management practices, water pricing, etc. Low water demanding food and cash crops, which are economically favorable and suited to local agro-ecological setting, deserve consideration (Karim and Hussain 2003). The investment in crop varietal improvement targeting higher yield, shorter duration and hazard resiliency is likely to enhance food security of the country. 12.5 Conclusions In recent times, Bangladesh has achieved self-sufficiency in rice production. The contribution of the large-scale flood control and irrigation projects to this achievement can be contested. It is seen that groundwater based privately owned shallow tube well technology has been most instrumental in dry season Boro rice irrigation and thereby increasing rice production. However, excessive withdrawal of groundwater for irrigation, increasing salinity in coastal region, arsenic contamination in upper aquifer, decreasing and deteriorating surface water, declining of available land and future climate change pose potential risks in maintaining the food security of the country with growing population and standard of living. Improvement of irrigation efficiency and water productivity, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, stoppage of conversion of agricultural land for non-agricultural uses through land use act and crop improvement through research and innovation should be given priority to maintain the food security. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 12 Role of Water Resource Management in Ensuring Food Security 233 References Ahmad QK, Ahmed AU (2003) Regional cooperation in flood management in the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna Region: Bangladesh perspective. Nat Hazards 28:181–198 Alam ME (2011) Assessment of irrigation efficiency and techno-socio-economic opportunities for its improvement in minor irrigation. PhD thesis, Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka Alam MS, Islam MA (2013) Long term assessment of rice production scenario in Bangladesh: a macro dynamics. Bangladesh J Agric Res 38(2):257–269 BADC (2011) Minor irrigation survey report 2010–11. Survey and Monitoring Project for Development of Minor Irrigation, Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka BBS (2011a) Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka BBS (2011b) Report of the household income and expenditure survey 2010. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka BBS (2012) Statistical yearbook of Bangladesh 2012. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka Brammer H, Khan HR (1991) Bangladesh country study. In: Disaster mitigation in Asia and the Pacific. Asian Development Bank, Manila FAO AQUASTAT (2011) Bangladesh: water country brief. Food and Agriculture Organization FPCO (1992) FAP 12 FCD/I agricultural study. Flood Plan Coordination Organization, Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control, Dhaka GED (2011) 6th five year plan FY 2011-FY 2015: accelerating growth and reducing poverty. General Economic Division, Planning Commission, Dhaka Hanratty M (1983) Minor irrigation in Bangladesh. USAID, Dhaka Haruisha A, Jun M, Rahman R (2005) Impact of recent severe floods on rice production in Bangladesh. Geogr Rev Jpn 78(12):783–793 Hasanuzzaman SM (2003) Impact of groundwater utilization on agriculture. In: Rahman AA, Ravenscroft P (eds) Groundwater resources and development in Bangladesh: background to the arsenic crisis, agricultural potential and the environment. The University Press Limited, Dhaka, pp 161–185 Hossain M (2009) The impact of shallow tubewells and boro rice on food security in Bangladesh. IFPRI discussion paper 00917, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC IBRD (1972) Land and water sector study. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (The World Bank), Dhaka IECO (1964) Master plan, vols I and II. East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (Now Bangladesh Water Development Board), Dhaka IIMI, BAU (1996) Study on privatization of minor irrigation in Bangladesh, final report. International Irrigation Management Institute and Bangladesh Agricultural University, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka Karim Z, Hussain SG (2003) Harnessing water resources for Bangladesh agriculture. In: Rahman AA, Ravenscroft P (eds) Groundwater resources and development in Bangladesh: background to the arsenic crisis, agricultural potential and the environment. The University Press Limited, Dhaka, pp 187–195 Lindquist AC (1989) Project aid in agriculture: major (surface water) flood control, drainage and irrigation projects. Bangladesh agriculture sector review, compendium vol. III: land, water and irrigation. UNDP, Dhaka, pp 1–41 Mandal MAS (1989) Market for and return from groundwater irrigation in Bangladesh. Bangladesh agriculture sector review, compendium vol. III: land, water and irrigation. UNDP, Dhaka, pp 42–74 MoA (2013) National agriculture policy. Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka Mondal MS (2011) Review of regional water demand and resources in the Ganges-BrahmaputraMeghna basins. In: Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on water and flood management, Institute of Water and Flood Management, Dhaka, pp 359–370 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 234 R. Rahman and M.S. Mondal Mondal MS, Wasimi SA (2007) Evaluation of risk-related performance in water management for the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. J Water Resour Plan Manag 133(2):179–187 Mondal MS, Chowdhury JU, Ferdous MR (2010) Risk-based evaluation for meeting future water demand of the Brahmaputra floodplain within Bangladesh. Water Resour Manag 24(5):835–852 Mondal MS, Jalal MR, Khan MSA, Kumar U, Rahman R, Huq H (2013) Hydro-meteorological trends in southwest coastal Bangladesh: perspectives of climate change and human interventions. Am J Clim Change 2(1):62–70 Mondal MS, Salehin M, Huq H (2014) Evaluation of institutional arrangements for governance of rivers surrounding Dhaka City. In: Narain V, Goodrich CG, Chourey J, Prakash A (eds) Water in a globalizing world: state, markets and civil society in south Asia. Routledge, New Delhi, pp 273–291 MoWR (1999) National water policy. Ministry of Water Resources, Dhaka MPO (1991) Evaluation of historical water resource development and implication for the national water plan. Master Plan Organization (Now Water Resources Planning Organization), Dhaka Planning Commission (2009) Report of the task force on irrigation. Government of India, New Delhi Rahman R, Chowdhury JU (1999) Macro impact of flood control projects on Aman rice production, Final report R 02/99. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka Rahman M, Mondal MS (2013) Impact of the Bangshi river water quality on irrigated soil and rice in Bangladesh. Asian J Water, Environ Pollut 10(1):129–139 Rahman R, Salehin M (2013) Flood risk and reduction approaches in Bangladesh. In: Mallick F, Islam A, Shaw R (eds) Disaster risk reduction approaches in Bangladesh. Springer, Tokyo, pp 65–90 Saleh AFMS, Mondal MS (2009) Impact of submersible embankment projects on Boro production in haor areas. Bangladesh J Water Resour Res 21:55–77 SRDI (2012) Saline soils of Bangladesh. Soil Resource Development Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka Talukder RK (2005) Food security, self Sufficiency and nutrition gap in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Dev Stud 31(3&4):35–62 WARPO (2000) Draft development strategy, annex C: land and water resources. Water Resources Planning Organization, Dhaka WARPO (2001) National water management plan. Water Resources Planning Organization, Dhaka Yu WH, Alam M, Hassan A, Khan AS, Ruane AC, Rosenzweig C, Major DC, Thurlow J (2010) Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh. Earthscan, London, p 11 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues in Bangladesh Gulsan Ara Parvin, Kumiko Fujita, Akiko Matsuyama, Rajib Shaw, and Maiko Sakamoto Abstract Climate change will affect all aspects of hydrological cycle. Frequent and severe flood, cyclone and drought are already apparent in all over the world. Climate change impact on natural disasters and agricultural system are the most critical, since these two aspects are intimately associated with life, livelihood and food security of both rural and urban community. Frequent climate induced disasters, like floods, cyclone, storm surges, disruption of agricultural system and shortage of food for growing population would have decisive impact on human health. Bangladesh, which is one of the most vulnerable countries due to climate change, suffers from floods almost every year. However, 70 % of its population depends on agriculture and lives at the risk of flood. Food security and health of this large segment of population are critical issues of development in present climate change context. To face these critical issues climate change, flood, food security and human health are the four associated vital issues that should be dealt together. This paper is an approach to address these four issues with an interconnected dimension. It would help to formulate comprehensive policy strategies and leading action plans for climate change adaptation. Keywords Climate change • Flood • Food security • Health • Bangladesh G.A. Parvin (*) • K. Fujita • R. Shaw Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan e-mail: niruurp@yahoo.com A. Matsuyama School of International Health Development, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan M. Sakamoto Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_13 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 235 236 13.1 G.A. Parvin et al. Introduction Disaster is a critical issue in Bangladesh because of its topography and weather. Almost every year, this country experiences disaster, such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion, floods, and droughts. Bangladesh is a deltaic country located at lower part of the basins of the three mighty rivers – the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna (commonly known as the GBM river system and ranking as one of the largest river systems in the world) (Fig. 13.1). Almost half of the area is within 10 m above mean sea level (m.a.s.l.) and the flood plains make up 80 % of the country. Humid, warm and tropical climate are also the triggers of flood. There are four prominent seasons, namely, winter (December to February), Pre-monsoon (March to May), Monsoon (June to early-October) and Post-monsoon (late-October to November). Heavy rainfall is characteristic of Bangladesh. The annual rainfall is at least 2,000 mm in most parts of the country excepting relatively dry western region with annual rainfall about 1,600 mm. In addition to the rainfall in Bangladesh, rainfall in India, Nepal, China and Bhutan drains into Bangladesh through three mighty rivers, their tributaries and distributaries. As a result of monsoon and flat topography, floods are annual phenomena and regular river floods affect about 20 % of the country during monsoon season. Bangladesh generally experiences four types of flood, (i) Flash Flood, (ii) Rain fed Flood, (iii) RiverFlood, and (iv) Flood due Cyclonic Storm Surges (WMO/GWP 2003). Area affected by these four types of flood is shown in Fig. 13.2. Fig. 13.1 The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins (Mirza 2002) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 237 Fig. 13.2 Flood affected area (WMO/GWP 2003) The flooding keeps the soil fertile because the rivers deposit silt, which forms fertile soil each year. Rice is the staple of Bangladesh and the traditional rice agriculture is dependent on the monsoon rain and river flood. Rice cropping season reflects climatic environment of tropical monsoon. There are three cropping season, “Aus” farming (from April to August), “Aman” farming (from April to December) in rainy season, and “Boro” farming (from December to April) in dry season. Bangladesh farmers call the annual blessed rain-induced flood “Barsh”, and call destructive flood “Bonna.” Thus, welcome “Barsh” flood secures the traditional monsoon farming and fishing area also (Uchida and Ando 2003). “Bonna” floods cause social disruptions and result in scarcity of drinking water as surface water get contaminated by organic and inorganic substances. Cases of diarrhea, cholera and other intestine diseases increase remarkably during and after floods (Brouwer et al. 2007). The increased volume of rainfall caused by climate change during the past decades has intensified the flood problem in Bangladesh (Brouwer et al. 2007). Climate change adds a new dimension to risk. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of many types of extreme events, including floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and wildfires (IPCC 2007). Developing countries are particularly affected by climate change because their basic industries are in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries (Imanishi 2000). Food production is being disrupted by flooding more frequently and more severely than before due to climate change (Douglas 2009). Climate change is likely to pose problems for Bangladesh food supplies because agriculture is so dependent on the monsoon (Shukla 2003). Climate change will affect all aspects of hydrological cycle. Climate change impact on natural disasters and agricultural system are the most critical, since these two aspects are intimately associated with life, livelihood and food security of both rural and urban community. Frequent climate induced disasters, like floods, cyclone, storm surges, disruption of agricultural system and shortage of food for growing population of Bangladesh golam.rabbani@bcas.net 238 G.A. Parvin et al. would have decisive impact on human health. To face these critical issues climate change, flood, food security and human health are the four associated vital issues that should be dealt together. In this chapter, global and Bangladesh perspectives are reviewed for four interconnected issues of climate change, flood, food security and human health. This paper is an approach to address these four issues with an interconnected dimension. It would help to formulate comprehensive policy strategies and leading action plans for climate change adaptation. 13.2 Climate Change and Flood There is increasing evidence that disaster is a major factor in prolonging poverty; yet the development community is only beginning to prioritize disaster risk management as an important component of international development and aid strategies, as well as an important consideration in adapting to climate change (Amendola et al. 2008). In this section, the relation of climate change and global flood risk management and Bangladesh perspectives are reviewed. 13.2.1 Global Perspective According to the Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report by IPCC, warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level (IPCC 2007). Climate change is likely to change the nature of many types of hazards, not only hydrometeorological events such as floods, windstorms, and droughts, but also events such as landslides, heat weaves and disease outbreaks, influencing not only the intensity, but also the duration and magnitude of these events (Kundzewicz et al. 2006). Figure 13.3 shows the number of natural catastrophe loss events worldwide 1980–2013. The trend in total number of events per year continues to rise. The trend in the number of hydrological events (flood and mass movement) per year is also continues to rise. Traditional flood management, which responded to a severe flood, was typically an ad hoc reaction– the quick implementation of a project that considered both the problem and its solution to be self-evident, and that gave no thought to the consequences for upstream and downstream flood risks. Thus, flood management practices have largely focused on reducing flooding and reducing the susceptibility to flood damage (WMO 2009). Disaster risk management has traditionally involved natural scientists and civil engineers and has concentrated on short-term single stressor responses through structural measures, such as flood embankments, community shelters and more resistant buildings, which were intended to control natural processes in a way that would either modify the threat or provide physical protection with regard to lives, property and critical infrastructure (Thomalla et al. 2006). golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 239 Fig. 13.3 Number of natural catastrophe loss events worldwide 1980–2013 (Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research 2014) As a result, flood control measures are confined to major rivers in most of the Asian countries. It has been witnessed that this approach is not effective to control large magnitude floods (Dutta and Hearth 2004). Flood control efforts such as levee and dam construction have led to more severe floods by preventing the natural dissipation of excess water in flood plains. The cost of flood damage has increased as the flood plains were developed by people who believed they are safe (Pahl-Wostl 2006). In case of flood control, policy makers, resource managers and engineers underestimated the importance of feedback effects, non-linearities, time delays and changes in human behavior as a consequence of policy interventions (Pahl-Wostl 2006). The United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Yokohama in 1994 has contributed to a shift in disaster management towards a more comprehensive approach. It is recognized that to cope with increasing frequency of floods, with high magnitudes, new and holistic approaches have to be adopted. As a result, basin wide integrated flood management is considered to be the most suitable for coping with new challenges in flood disaster mitigation (Dutta and Hearth 2004). A river basin is a natural unit for integrated water resources planning and management. Other terms that are used to describe a river basin are catchment area, catchment basin, drainage area, drainage basin, watershed and so on. A river basin is a portion occupied by a main stream and its tributaries separated from adjacent basins by drainage divide. It sends all the water falling on the surrounding land into a central golam.rabbani@bcas.net 240 G.A. Parvin et al. river and out to the sea. As a result, within a river basin, surface and groundwater interact with and to a large degree controls the extent of other natural components such as soil, vegetation, and wildlife (Cai et al. 2003). Because of these backgrounds, in a river basin, natural resources management in general, and water resources management in particular, are currently undergoing a major paradigm shift (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2006). 13.2.2 Bangladesh Perspective Floods are annual phenomena in Bangladesh and floods occur during the months of July and August. Regular river floods affect 20 % of the country increasing up to two third in extreme years. After severe floods, flood management strategies have been shifted. It can be divided in to four distinct phases of its development as follows (modified WMO/GWP 2003). Phase 1: 1960–1978 Phase 2: 1978–1996 Phase 3: 1996–2004 Phase 4: 2004–2014 onward Phase 1 Flood management in Bangladesh has started 1960s. The Bangladesh government has made considerable effort in the Flood Control, Drainage and/or Irrigation (FCD/I) project. Water Development Master Plan was prepared in 1964. Since mid 1960s there has been a steady growth of flood control and drainage projects in Bangladesh through the construction of embankments, drainage channels, and sluices and regulations, with the total coverage area standing at 5.37 million ha (Rahman and Salehin 2013). It is mainly focused on protecting the agricultural lands because agriculture was the main industry. It gave high priority on structural solutions having large project portfolios with large investments as well as longer duration. Accordingly, Government started implementing large flood control projects for improving drainage and irrigation. While the projects yielded a number of positive impacts such as increase in agricultural production, increase in economic activities, reduction of damage to infrastructure inside protected area (Rahman and Salehin 2013), it was time consuming, and during the implementation of these projects some medium scale flood occurred and caused lots of suffering to the people. In addition, since those embankments disturbed local hydrological conditions, local people destroyed some of them for their convenience. Moreover, because of the poor operation and maintenance of the embankment, it caused depletion of fish stocks and deposition of silt in the riverbed as well as on the agricultural lands. As a result, non-structural measures were also considered as a means for mitigating golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 241 flood damages, and as a non-structural measure, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center of Bangladesh Water Development Board was established in 1972, which is responsible for making flood forecasts and flood warning during the flood season (Rahman and Salehin 2013). Phase 2 Though, the main objective of flood control projects was to protect the crop land from flood damage, there occurred considerable crop damage even in years of moderate flood because the embankments were also damaged (Rahman and Salehin 2013). Government also realized that water resources development should not be focused only on agriculture rather it should take into account other sectors related to water resources utilization and development for economic as well as public goods. As a result National Water Plan (NWP) was formulated in 1982 and finalized in 1986, however it did not receive Government’s approval due to some of its drawbacks. There were particularly catastrophic floods in 1987 and 1988, resulting in largescale destruction and loss of lives. In the aftermath, various studies were conducted in the assessment of confining these floods and a strategy of “living with the floods” was applied, which is the more traditional way of dealing with these floods in these circumstances (Rahman and Salehin 2013). This concept led subsequently to the implementation of the project entitled Flood Action Plan (FAP) from 1990 to 1996. The concept of “living with flooding” for sustainable agricultural development has become widespread through the FAP. Accordingly, it has been shifted from “flood control” to “flood management”, that is, from structural solutions to combinations of structural and non-structural measures. In addition to the structural solutions with large investments as well as longer duration, Government opted for implementation of small and medium scale FCD projects to provide early benefits. Phase 3 There has been growing awareness of the need for a more integrated, multi-sector approach to surface water management since the late 1980s. In addition, the earthen embankment was unable to give protection against severe floods in 1998 and even against some medium floods in 1991, 1993 and 1995 (Salehin et al. 2007). Then, at the end of FAP studies, Government realized that all the issues concerning the water resources development and utilization have not been addressed in the light of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). A real start in the paradigm shift in water resources management policy and practice towards “integrated” management took place with the preparation of the National Water Policy (NWP) in 1999 and subsequently the National Water Management Plan (NWMP) in 2001 (Rahman and Salehin 2013). The NWP makes clear the government’s intention to pursue a policy of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and further pledges to take all necessary measures to manage the water resources of the country golam.rabbani@bcas.net G.A. Parvin et al. 242 in a comprehensive, integrated, equitable and environmentally sustainable manner. The NWP specifically focuses on stakeholder participation at the service-delivery level. This concern is evident in the directive that participation of all project- affected persons, individually and collectively, is to be ensured in the planning, design, implementation and operation and maintenance of publicly funded surface water resources development plans and projects. NWMP is a framework plan for the ministries to define strategies; agencies, department, and local bodies to prepare projects. Phase 4 In 2004, Bangladesh experienced one of the most devastating floods in nearly 50 years. About 38 % of the country went underwater (Disaster Management Bureau 2010). After one of the worst flood, occurred in 2004, Government reported that Bangladesh clearly needs to improve disaster response and preparedness at local level, with provision of immediate rescue resources, emergency funding mechanisms, and better information management and contingency planning (DER Sub-Group 2004). Based on the lessons learnt from past water management and experience of floods in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2012 and 2013, the participatory water management approach is now considered an effective way to manage the complexity of water management in Bangladesh. A paradigm shift in disaster management from conventional response and relief practice to a more comprehensive risk reduction culture is slowly taking place (Zimmermann et al. 2010). 13.2.3 Challenges Climate change is considered to change the nature of floods, influencing not only the intensity, but also the duration and magnitude in the world, and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009 also rightly weighted the linkage of the climate change and disaster potentials. As same as the world perspective, the lessons learnt from the past water management in Bangladesh point out that the focus of integrated water resources management must go beyond flood control, drainage and irrigation. As a result, institutional frameworks for comprehensive disaster risk reduction have been established. The challenge now is all stakeholders’ participation. Recently, community participation in water resource management is being institutionalized. However, more attention must also be given to the social dimensions that promote stakeholder participation and the transfer of appropriate water management activities to the local communities. In addition to the stakeholders’ participation, integrated river basin management is also the challenge for Bangladesh flood management. Though the necessity of the integrated river basin management is recognized in Bangladesh, it is not easy to establish institutional framework, since Bangladesh shares the river basins with upstream countries golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 243 as Fig. 13.1 shows. However, one disaster in one country gives impacts on other countries’ economy as a result of globalization. Linkage of river basin sharing countries is also considered as a climate change adaptation strategy for flood management. 13.3 Climate Change and Flood-Impact on Food Security Scholars claim that due to low GDP (US$ 1900/year) and high population density (1,117/km2) food security has been considered as one of the key priorities for national development of Bangladesh (Tandon 2012; Faisal and Parveen 2004). Climate change has posed huge challenges to achieve this priority by declining cultivated land and inaccessibility to fresh water, supply. At the same time climate induced natural disasters, like flood, cyclone, and storm surges have increased the vulnerability of the victims and increased their food crisis especially in the coastal and rural Bangladesh (Raillon 2010). Among the various disasters flood is the most common and frequent one (Rayhan 2010) and is considered to be one of the principal threats of development in Bangladesh (Paul and Routray 2010). Scientists’ projections of increasing precipitation and peak precipitation over many areas, several unusual flood events have triggered discussions about a potential link between climate change and flooding (Van Aalst 2006). Further, researches have predicted that climate change will lead intensification of global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk (Cubasch 2001, cited in Milly et al. 2002). Already in the world flood disasters have been increasing over the last 30 years. The number of floods was 150 in 1980–1982 and it increased to 550 in 2004–2006 (Kobayashi et al. 2010). In Himalayan region, due to rising temperatures the rate of melting of snow and glacier ice will be accelerated, which would increase seasonal peak flows of rivers and it would lead to an increase of flooding in this region. Particularly in South Asia Climate change is influencing the monsoon and tropical cyclones, the two prime drivers of flood events (Douglas 2009). Bangladesh is also facing this increasing trend of flood disasters. Studies using climate model showed that the probability of extremely wet Asian monsoon seasons would increase, with severe implications for flooding in Bangladesh (Van Aalst 2006). These floods are disrupting food production more frequently and more severely than before, due to climate change (Douglas 2009). Since Bangladesh economy is still agrarian in nature, crop production and losses of food crops during floods have always had severe impacts in its economy and food security as well. In addition to the direct damage of food crop during flood, disruption of transport and communication system and storage facilities during flood enhance the loss of food damage and adversely affect food supply and distribution chain. Thus floods and food security is closely inter-linked in Bangladesh. Though last three decades share of agriculture in GDP is declining 70 % of country population still depends on agriculture for their livelihoods (Mirza 2002). These large segment of population need to face crop damage, shortage of food supply, increase of food golam.rabbani@bcas.net G.A. Parvin et al. 244 price and loss of income and employment due to flood. Long back research warns that crop damage and unemployment caused by floods will make an even larger section of population extremely vulnerable to starvation, malnutrition and even death (Shahabuddin 2000). In fact, flood, crop damage, unemployment all of these situations threaten the food security, livelihoods and health of the poorest people of Bangladesh, especially the women who the most vulnerable to disasters. In Bangladesh, depending the extent and duration of flood, damage of crop is different in different years. It is estimated that on average, yearly crop damage could be about 0.5 million tons (Paul and Rasid 1993). But the floods like 1987, 1988 and 1998 caused higher magnitude of crop damages, which were estimated at 1.32, 2.10 and 3 million tons, respectively. Aman, which is one of the principal rice verities of Bangladesh is highly sensitive to timely arrival of monsoons. Seed bed preparation, plantation and growth of Aman rice dependent on the normal rainfall and non-occurrence of high floods. Further, it is noticed that high-yielding aman rice varieties are very susceptible to floods as they are unable to keep up of flood water (Mirza 2002). Due to this close association of rice production and flood, all previous devastating floods in Bangladesh had endangered food security of the country. Douglas (2009) noted that in 1974 flood damaged about 0.6 million tones of crops and generated a severe unemployment crisis for farm workers. Due to lack of food security the situation lead to a great famine in Bangladesh. During 1988 and 1998 floods in spite of Government efforts to balance food demand and supply, food security at the household level could not be ensured. This serious problem will affect increasing numbers of people living below the poverty line when bigger floods occur in future. The scenario of flood induced food crisis has been shown in the following section as a case study. 13.3.1 Food Consumption During Flood – An Evidence from Rural Bangladesh Through empirical study in one of the most flood vulnerable upazilas (sub-district) of Bangladesh named GoalandaUpazilla (in Rajbari district) here in this section it has been tried to examine the impact of flood on food consumption of rural poor community. For household questionnaire survey total 120 households from different villages have been selected randomly. Recalling their every year’s experiences related to food consumption during flood, especially the experiences of the severe floods (in 1998, 2004 and 2007) people gave the answers related to the extent of changes in their food consumption due to flood. In this rural poor community overwhelming majority of the households are landless and their income fall below the poverty line, which is less than 1 US$ per day per person. About 63.3 % respondents claimed that during normal time they golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 245 earn less than Tk. 3000 (US$ 38.6). About 53 % of the households are engaged in agriculture, 21.7 % work as day laborers and another 22 % are engaged in petty business. Occurrence of flood is always a serious threat to the food security of the poor households in Bangladesh. Flood reduces availability of food-grains by disrupting the normal market flow and destabilizes the prices of food-grains. It also threatens the prospect of a good harvest and increases the risk of future food crisis and limits the access of poor to food due to loss of income and purchasing power. In addition to this, during flood, the expense for food increased. Eventually this situation leads the poor to have reduced quantity and frequency of meals with deteriorated quality. Like other poor communities due to reduced incomes owing to losses of assets, flood affected rural poor experience increased difficulty in food that create relentless health and nutrition problems (Gaillard et al. 2008). This study findings presented in Fig. 13.4 also denotes similar situation in the case of food habit during flood. In this area as a preparation for flood a number of households (about 45 %) store dry food such as chira, muri, gur, rice, pals, oil, salt etc. However, in most cases the amount of stored food is not adequate enough to meet the whole time period of flood. On the other hand, since majority are poor, 55 % of the households cannot afford to store any food before flood. From the field investigation it is found that households that cannot store food before flood or those store small amount of food for flood usually experienced increased difficulties in accessing food. Therefore, they had to change eating habit according to their affordability during flood. The sequential measures they adopt to cope with the situation are diet change, change in frequency of meal, reduce food consumption, try to collect food from surrounding and finally if they fail in all other steps they start to starve. According to the respondents during normal time 91.7 % households took meals three times a day. However, their flood experiences revealed that during flood time only 15 % households could keep the number of meals same as normal time. More than half of the households in the study area, had to take meals twice or once daily. About one third of the household face very irregularities in having meal; they even had to starve often. Households had to change frequency according to their vulnerable condition (Fig. 13.4). Similar to the flood in other poor communities of Bangladesh, the respondents in the study areas mentioned that not only the number of meal but also the food quantity and quality had to be changed due to flood. Consumption of variety of food items reduced and many households passed days by eating rice with water and salt in irregular manner. People had to change food habit and largely depend on dry food namely chira(flat rice), muri(puffed rice), gur etc. Meat, milk, eggs and fruits were consumed rarely and the amount of consuming fish and vegetable comparatively increased. About 70 % households mentioned that the quantity of food consumption highly reduced and 88.3 % of the households claimed that their food consumption deteriorated. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 246 G.A. Parvin et al. Before Flood During Flood 3 times a day 15% 38.3% 3 times a day 2 times a day 15% 23.3% 1 times a day 2 times a day 8.3% Irregular Change in Frequency of Meals a Day 8.3 % Adequate (85%) Slightly Reduced (8.3 %) 21.7 % Reduced 55 % Reduced 15 % Highly Reduced (70%) Change in Quantity of Food Consumption Normal Diet (100%) Rice Vegetables 11.7 % No Change 88.3 % Deteriorated Diet Rice/ Panta Vegetables (Shak, Kochuetc) Change in Quality of Food Consumption Note: Terms regarding quality and quantity of food used are illustrated belowHighly Reduced More than 50% less consumption of normal food quantity Reduced Upto 50% less consumption of normal food quantity Slightly Reduced Upto 25% less consumption of normal food quantity Deteriorated Worsen than normal food quality Fig. 13.4 Food consumption pattern before and during flood (Source: Field survey) golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 247 Similar to the observation of Parvin and Ahsan, 2013, this study also noticed that women were the most sufferers during flood in terms of all aspects specially taking food during flood. They gave up food consumption for managing meals for other members of the household. Women take fewer calories as reduced number of meal. The frequency and quantity of meals for women reduced highly and simultaneously the quality was highly deteriorated in general. Changing of eating habits largely depended on income of household during flood. Household having no income could afford meals one times a day or took meal in irregular manner. Among them major portion of households (65 %) took meal in irregular manner. Major portion of households having income above Tk. 1,000 (US$12.87) per month could afford meals two or three times a day that means the quantity of food consumption of the households with comparatively higher income during flood also slightly reduced. At the time of flood, if there was no alternative means of managing food people started to consume their productive assets, mainly poultry as their food. Another reason behind this death of poultry was the most common matter during flood. During flood along with modification of food habit, managing daily necessities at less expense becomes also essential. Households limit purchasing of relatively expensive goods during flood. Due to scarcity of daily necessities and lack of affordability people also had to bring change in their daily habits. Especially, consumption of toiletries and kerosene reduced to a great extent. 13.4 13.4.1 Climate Change and Human Health Global Perspective It has been widely acknowledged that climate change due to increasing energy use by human activity and population growth has adverse impact on human health. World Health Organization (WHO) warns that it will affect some of the most fundamental pre-requisites for good health: clean air and water, sufficient food, adequate shelter and freedom from disease (WHO 2008). In essence, there are several major threats to human health. First, extreme air temperature and air pollution are hazardous to health. They are attributable to the increased mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular, respiratory disease, and pollen and other aeroallergens that trigger asthma. Second, flood, droughts and contaminated water raise disease risk (McMichael et al. 2006). Lack of fresh water compromised hygiene, thus increasing rates of diarrhoeal disease which is the third major killer of the children under 5 years old, explaining 14 % of total deaths of children under 5 years old (UN 2010). While extreme water scarcity results in drought and famine, excessive water in the form of flood tends to contaminate freshwater supplies and also creates opportunities for breeding of disease carrying golam.rabbani@bcas.net 248 G.A. Parvin et al. insects such as mosquitoes. Consequently, it leads to higher occurrence of malaria which killed approximately 627,000 people in 2007 (WHO 2013). Third, climatic effects on agriculture threaten increasing malnutrition. Malnutrition is a cause for 3.5 million deaths each year which is 35 % of the disease burden in children younger than 5 years (Black et al. 2008), directly through nutritional deficiencies and indirectly by intensifying vulnerability to diseases such as malaria and diarroeal and respiratory diseases. Fourth, expected increases in frequency and severity of flood and storms will result in the destruction of homes, medical facilities and other essential services, impacting particularly on people in slums and other marginal living conditions (WHO 2008). Fifth, Climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Infections caused by pathogens that are transmitted by insect vectors are strongly affected by climatic conditions such as temperature, rainfall and humidity. These diseases include some of the most important current killers: malaria, dengue and other infections carried by insect vectors, and diarrhea, transmitted mainly through contaminated water (Black et al. 2008). However, mechanism for occurrence of infectious diseases is complex, influenced by many other social, economic, behavioural, and environmental factors. Caution to construct a causal relationship between a single factor, climate change, and increased incidence of infectious diseases is indicated (McMichael et al. 2006). 13.4.2 Bangladesh Perspective Bangladesh is a country where natural hazards are part of their lives for the majority of the population. Seventy percent of them live in flood-prone regions and 26 % are affected by cyclones (DMB 2010). However, mortality and morbidity from these natural disasters have fallen substantially in the past 50 years. Reported deaths were declined from 500, 000 in 1970 to 3,300–4,234 in 2007 (Haque et al. 2012; Cash et al. 2013). Such reductions are mainly explained by improved disaster management including cyclone shelters, early warning system, evacuation plans, coastal embankments, reforestation schemes, and awareness of the community (Haque et al. 2012). General activities for poverty reduction integrated into the disaster management have been also identified as a significant contributor (Cash et al. 2013). More importantly, achievement of general health over the decades through extensively provided public health interventions in a pluralistic health system with many stake holders including government, NOGs, private sectors, and informal health providers has played an important role in mitigation of the hazards (Cash et al. 2013; Ahmed et al. 2013). Some of the successful public health measures are family planning, expanded program on immunization for children, oral rehydration therapy for diarroeal diseases, maternal and child health program, early detection and treatment for tuberculosis, vitamin A supplementation scheme for prevention of malnutrition of children and pregnant women (Chowdhury et al. 2013). All of these golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… 249 Fig. 13.5 Life expectancy and various mortality rates in Bangladesh (1970–2010) (Source: Chowdhury et al. 2013) are responsible for substantial health advances, indicated by the steady decline in child and maternal mortality during the past four decades (Fig. 13.5). Overall health gain of Bangladesh might be partially attributed to womenfocused, equity-oriented, nationally targeted public health program (Chowdhury et al. 2013; Adams et al. 2013). Further analysis, however, on who are the most vulnerable groups at the time of natural disasters shows that it is women and children, particularly of the poor. During the cyclone in 1991, for example, the death rate was 71 per 1,000 among women aged 20–44, as compared to 15 per 1,000 for men in the same age group. Some of the reasons for this are likely to be based on the different physiological capacities of women and men to run, swim, or hold on to steady objects. Women may be more likely to be swept away by water of high winds. In addition, Bangladeshi women face socially constructed, gender-specific vulnerability including purdah restricting independent mobility and access to information (Nahar et al. 2014). It is also the women, during the post-cyclone or longer-term flood period, who suffer more as they may to take less food for managing meals for other members of the household (Shimi et al. 2010). Fetching safer drinking water for longer distance during the post-cyclone or flood period as well may have adverse health effects on women (Abedin et al. 2014). golam.rabbani@bcas.net G.A. Parvin et al. 250 For future issues, health programs such as diaarhoea, acute respiratory infection, water and sanitation should be accelerated as an integrated part of disaster management. Furthermore, there are a couple of areas, which require urgent attentions: threat of rapid urbanization, long-term health effects such as mental health and intimate partner’s or sexual violence, and saline contamination of drinking water. The urban poor population has increased rapidly, 5–28 % in the past 40 years, with roughly 45 million people in urban areas (Afsana and Wahid 2013). Many of them are living in already deteriorated environment with contaminated food and water supply, air pollution, inadequate waste removal, and poor housing conditions. Slum dwellers without basic amenities suffer from vicious circle of infections, malnutrition, and ill health. Continuous inflow of migrants from rural areas including those from the cyclone and flood affected regions seeking for employment would aggravate their living conditions. They are also hard to reach population. Roughly 30 % of the slum dwellers are highly mobile due to circular migration within urban slums, eviction, and long or irregular work hours. It leads to incomplete coverage and follow-up for essential health services (Afsana and Wahid 2013). In such urban circumstances, natural disasters including flood put the urban poor at further risk of diseases and malnutrition. Long-term health problems such as mental health and intimate partner’s violence/sexual violence particularly when people stay in a crowded situation in shelter are other public health challenges (Cash et al. 2013; Nahar et al. 2014). Additionally, impact on climate change on water salinity and its effects on health has been indicated (Abedin et al. 2014; Vineis et al. 2011; Khan et al. 2008). Increased salinity of drinking water most likely adds risk to health such as hypertension. It is particularly a serious health problem for pregnant women since hypertensive disorder during pregnancy is reported as one of the five major causes for maternal mortality (Say et al. 2014). It would also be related to the life-style related diseases among rapidly growing middle-class population due to economic growth. 13.5 Conclusion In Bangladesh food production, storage, distribution and consumption at every stage that are related to food security of the people are largely dependent on the topological, climatological and to some extent socio-economic and infrastructural conditions. Bangladesh, which is one of the most vulnerable countries due to climate change, suffers from floods almost every year. In this flood prone country 70 % of its population depends on agriculture and lives at the risk of flood. For being a tropical low-lying agricultural country food security of the large segment of the population is determined by the nature and extent of flood in every year. In addition to this flood vulnerability due to rapid growth of population and low level of GDP food security has always been a nation priority since independence. As discussed in previous section climate change, flood, food security and health are closely associated and interlinked. Climate change, flood and food insecurity golam.rabbani@bcas.net 13 Climate Change, Flood, Food Security and Human Health: Cross-Cutting Issues… Four Key Concerning Issues of Development Impact Mitigation/adaptation • Natural disaster, Water, Agriculture health Climate Change Loss of lives and livelihood, Crop damage Water and food crisis Health problem Flood. • • • Food insecurity Health Hazard Malnutrition Low productivity Ill-health Low productivity Lack of income Poverty and vulnerability Low level of development • • • • Climate change mitigation and adaptation, Flood Management, risk reduction, Preparedness and efficient early warning Alternative livelihood generation, Awareness and preventive measures Efficient service delivery Public-Private partnership Community based adaptation and Community empowerment 251 Outcome Healthy Community for Development Fig. 13.6 Climate change, flood, food security and health- key concerning issues of development all these have severe adverse impact on human health. Researchers have already identified different health impact of climate change. Climate change will affect all the pre-requisite for good health. Among this air, food and water are the most fundamental pre-requisite. Especially in Bangladesh climate change induced natural disasters like, cyclone and flood would have direct impact on food security and human health. It can be noticed that Government, national and international Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), donors and all public and private sectors that are engaged for the development of Bangladesh are directly or indirectly dealing with climate change, flood, food security and health. Due to the relentless efforts of different organizations, along with community Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in flood management, food security and also to improve public health (PRSP 2013). Climate change is also attaining significant attention and action by the both government and NGOs. In spite of all achievements and successes, there remain challenges and limitations in the aspects of climate change, flood, food security and health-the four key concerning issues of Bangladesh. Above section have highlighted a brief of all successes and limitations in these four key issues. Though these key concerning issues are closely associated (Fig. 13.6) and interlinked all these issues are addressed in a segregated way. Therefore, association and interlink of these issues should be examined and in order to build a healthy and productive nation all these issues should be dealt together. Acknowledgement The authors wish to thank Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) for their support of SATREPS Project “Research project on disaster prevention/mitigation measures against floods and storm surges in Bangladesh”. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 252 G.A. Parvin et al. 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J Flood Risk Manag 3:18–24, Blackwell Publishing Ltd Shahabuddin Q (2000) Impact of recent floods on agriculture: some suggested interventions. Daily Star Features, Dhaka Salehin M, Haque A, Rahman MR, Khuan MSA, Bala SK (2007) Hydrological aspects of 2004 floods in Bangladesh. J Hydrol Meteorol Nepal 4(1):33–34 Say L, Chou D, Gemmill A, Tunçalp O, Moller AB, Daniels J, Gülmezoglu AM, Temmerman M, Alkema L (2014) Global causes of maternal death: a WHO systematic analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2(6):323–33. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70227-X, Epub 5 May 2014 Shimi AC, Parvin GA, Biswas C, Shaw R (2010) Impact and adaptation of fold: a focus on water supply, sanitation and health problems of rural community in Bangladesh. Disaster Prev Manag 19(3):298–313 Shukla PR (2003) Climate change and India. University Press India, Hyderabad Tandon N (2012) Food security, women smallholders and climate change in Caribbean SIDS, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, Cape Town. Available at: www.ipc-undp.org/ pub/IPCPolicyResearchBrief33.pdf. Accessed 21 Mar 2013 Thomalla F, Downing T et al (2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters 30(I):41–43 Uchida H, Ando K (2003) Flood in Bangladesh: farmers’ adaptability and national policy -Asian and African area studies 2003, 3:3–34 (in Japanese). http://hdl.handle.net/2433/80024 United Nations (2010) UN Millennium development report 2010, New York Van Aalst MK (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters. Disasters 30(1):5–18 Vineis P, Chan Q, Khan A (2011) Climate change impacts on water salinity and health. J Epidemiol Glob Health 1(1):5–10 WMO (2009) Integrated flood management concept paper, World Meteorological Organization. No. 1047: 9 WMO/GWP (2003) Integrated flood management case study -Bangladesh: flood management, World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership Associated Programme on Flood Management golam.rabbani@bcas.net 254 G.A. Parvin et al. World Health Organization. World Malaria Report 2013. [Accessed 1 August 2014]. Available at: http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world_malaria_report_2013/en World Health Organization (2008) Protecting health from climate change: world health day 2008, Geneva Zimmermann M, Glombitza K-F, Rothenberger B (2010) Disaster risk reduction programme for bangladesh 2010–2012. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). http://www. who.int/topics/millennium_development_goals/diseases/en/ Downloaded on 19 Aug 2014 golam.rabbani@bcas.net Chapter 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development, Environment and Resource Management and Risk Reduction Umma Habiba, Md. Anwarul Abedin, and Rajib Shaw Abstract Globally, food security problem is identified that there is enough food in the world, but the distribution is deficient. Food security is not only about having enough production; it is also about having an equal chance of access to food for all. The problem is similar in case of Bangladesh. Food security is hindered by various climatic and anthropogenic causes. Taking account these issues, this chapter attempts to incorporate climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the field of food security. It further gives its focus on sustainable food security; therefore, it describes the concept, strategies and priority action areas of sustainable food security. In conclusion, it provides an integrated approach to sustain food security that not only secure the food for populations but also build resilience towards disaster and climate change risk. Keywords Food security • Disaster risk reduction • Climate change adaptation • Sustainable food security • Integrated approach 14.1 Introduction Over the course of the twenty-first century, the world will need to produce significantly more food in order to deliver a basic, but adequate diet to everyone. Since based on United Nations population data and projections (United Nations, Development of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2009), the global U. Habiba (*) Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh e-mail: shimuagri@yahoo.com Md.A. Abedin Department of Soil Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh e-mail: masumagriculture@yahoo.com R. Shaw Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan © Springer Japan 2015 U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_14 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 255 U. Habiba et al. 256 population will be reaching 9.1 billion by 2050, an increase of 32 % from 2010. At present globally 842 million people- 12 % of the global populations were unable to meet their dietary energy requirements in 2011–2013, down from 868 million reported for the 2010–2012 period in last year’s report. Thus around one in eight people in the world are likely to have suffered from chronic hunger, not having enough food for an active and healthy life. The vast majority of hungry people- 827 million of them-live in developing regions where the prevalence of undernourishment is now estimated at 14.3 %. However, most of the world’s undernourished people are still to be found in Southern Asia, followed by Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. Among them, seven countries account for two-thirds of the world’s undernourished population: Bangladesh, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia and Pakistan (FAO 2010). According to the Global Food Security Index (2012), Bangladesh is the least food-secure among the South Asian countries. Globally, Bangladesh ranked 81st in terms of food security amongst 105 countries. Despite progress in growth of food production and reduction of poverty level, widespread hunger exists in Bangladesh because of the increasing population pressure, and the lack of purchasing power among the ultra poor. About half of the population of Bangladesh still lives below the food-based poverty. While availability of food has been increased, accessibility remains a major challenge. Poverty, gender, disability, geographical location and cultural practices are also important factors in shaping food security. Among various grounds, natural disasters and climate change are a leading cause of hunger in Bangladesh that affect all dimensions of food security including economic and physical access to food, availability and stability of supplies, and nutrition. With climate change impacts on agricultural production, areas suffering from food insecurity are expected to experience disproportionately negative effects. Already fragile food production systems and the natural resources on which they depend, particularly those prone to degradation, desertification and water stress, will undermine the capacity of people to take the needed preventative and protective measures. Rain-fed agriculture and agro-pastoral systems are at particular risk. Disaster-affected communities that suffer chronic and transient food insecurity may also become acutely food insecure during disaster events. A lack of food or not being able to afford or access food is one of the major impacts of disasters. Rates of acute and chronic malnutrition are also expected to rise due to increased crop failure, decreased fish stocks, and diarrheal disease caused by poor water quality. The nutritional status of the poorest people, whose livelihoods depend on climatesensitive resources, will be deeply affected by changes in the climate. In addition, their poor nutrition will impact on their health and ability to work, and will hinder their capacity to adapt. These are already showing, with negative effects already on chronic food insecurity and fragile livelihoods. To strengthen the populations’ resilience and strengthening the capacity of institutions, food security is becoming an integral feature of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction response. In the past, food security during times of crisis was more or less equated with food aid. More recently, the focus has shifted towards crisis prevention and mitigation, i.e. take all necessary action to prevent food shortages or to at least limit their extent, golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 257 with the aim of building local resilience against food crises and thereby reducing the dependence on external food support. Thus, in the context of humanitarian aid, food security is now moving closer to disaster risk reduction (DRR) in terms of its approaches and issues and may even be regarded as an integral component of DRR. In addition, both disasters – be they climate-induced or otherwise created – and climate change impacts negatively affect development outcomes (Schipper and Pelling 2006; IPCC 2012). Therefore synergies between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation would be necessary not only to avoid duplicities and derive optimal benefits from scarce resources but also to add value to the projects through lessons learnt from the respective perspectives (Thomalla et al. 2006). According to the above, this chapter attempts to provide reinforce sustainable system for achieving food security, coupled with sound economic management for sustaining growth and poverty reduction in the region. In conclusion, it highlights an approach to sustain food security considering the challenges, climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction nexus. 14.2 Nexus Among Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change and Food Security Disaster risk reduction (DRR), food security (FS) and climate change (CC) are relatively young concepts that continue to evolve. Global platforms, for example the climate dialogues under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the FS dialogues driven by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the milestone Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) on DRR, are setting the course internationally. However, the dialogue is only now starting to move towards identifying and acting on the multiple inter-linkages among DRR, FS and CC. This is not easy because there are different sets of actors at global and regional level, who seldom find each other at shared platforms and remain ignorant of the nature and importance of this nexus. The Fig. 14.1 simplifies the complex dynamics that characterize the DRR/FS/CC nexus. The linkages (intersections in the diagram) sometimes operate in both directions. For example, agriculture (implied within the FS circle) is affected by climate change, but it also contributes to global emissions of greenhouse gases, which causes climate change. The diagram that shows the nexus between DRR, FS and CC is not well understood or discussed and is poorly reflected in policies, planning and programming, resulting in a lack of shared purpose and fragmented implementation. Climate change is changing the frequency, intensity and duration of disasters and also the type (e.g. hailstorms where they never occurred before, changing and unpredictable rainfall patterns). Disasters impact directly (production) and indirectly (access to food) on food security. More gradual climate changes (e.g. warming) also impact directly on food production by reducing and destabilizing yields of sensitive crops. In the middle, where all three overlap, the overall impact on agriculture-based golam.rabbani@bcas.net U. Habiba et al. 258 Fig. 14.1 Disaster risk reduction, climate change and food security nexus livelihoods becomes clear and shows the need for an integrated and long term building of resilience, which could save millions of livelihoods. Importantly, all three issues have component drivers that do not intersect with one another: food insecurity (especially issues of access to food) is driven by numerous socio-economic factors and shocks to the food system; CC has causes and impacts unrelated to DRR and FS; and DRR also includes non-climatic disasters, such as earthquakes and tsunamis. 14.3 Concept of Sustainable Food Security Food security is a complex topic in itself and sustainable food security (SFS) is even more complex when economic, environment and social aspects of food security are included. Sustainable food security can be explained as feeding all people at present without compromising the need of the future generation and that is why leaving a health ecological footprint is essential (International Development Research Centre 1999). When food security remains a challenge, especially for the golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 259 Fig. 14.2 Pillars of sustainable food security developing countries, sustainable food security involves other issues like conserving land, water management and also economic growths through food production (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations n.d.). The challenges of Sustainable Food Security are increased population, decreased nutritional security, economic inaccessibility to food, agricultural land reduced, natural resource constrain such as water scarcity, soil pollution, climate change etc. and human/animal/plants health (Jain et al. 2010). FAOs sustainable development department has divided into four different pillars to achieve goals Sustainable Food Security which are “People, institutions, knowledge and environment”. FAO has described the pillars of Sustainable Food Security that are the following way (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations n.d.) (Fig. 14.2). People Majority of the developing countries population still lives in the rural areas and are dependent on agriculture which does not generate a steady income. Including these group of people and enhance their economic situation will play an important role in end poverty. Women are the most vulnerable group that suffers from food insecurity, a special attention needs toward this group to improve their rights such as education, health, ownership of land etc. Institution By institution FAO means that a bottom up structure is needed to minimize the gap between rural development and national development. Policy, laws and regulation should be reflect the rural perspective and not the centralized view of the situation. Governmental, public sector and civil society should be integrated for rural development. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 260 U. Habiba et al. Knowledge Sharing of knowledge and technology is important to achieve food security globally. Technology for improved food production and high yield crops is the key for sustainable food security but currently many small scale farmers and poor cannot access these technologies because it is very expensive for them. The knowledge about how to treat the land and environment and omit environmental pollution due to agriculture, this needs to be sheared and learned. Another importance matter is the knowledge about biodiversity and ecosystem and its function to be able to preserve it. Through new types of global commitment to ensuring transfer of knowledge and technology is a must and only by that global food security can be achieved. Environment Due to agriculture and food production soil pollution, water pollution, loss of biodiversity is a common phenomenon today. Feeding the world population in future will increase these entire environmental problems and to mitigate it. there are already many tools can be used to protect the environment, such as ecologically sound technologies are already being used in many areas and needs to be used and develop these types of technologies. Resource constrain is going to be a challenge but sustainable food security also needs to provide economic development that is why dialog with the farmers are viable on resource management such as land use, water management, soil management etc. and also provide other services to the farmers like education, access to cash, increase budget in agriculture sector, monitoring environmental issues are also necessary. 14.4 Challenges for Achieving Food Security in Context of Bangladesh It has been seen from the earlier chapters that climatic events as well as anthropogenic causes food insecurity in Bangladesh. Continuing population growth, shrinking of arable land every year due to demand from housing and industries, salinity intrusion due to sea level rise, declining soil fertility due to overexploitation of soil and imbalanced use of fertilizers are main threats to achieving food security in Bangladesh. While rice productions are largely sufficient in Bangladesh, selfsufficiency in other food items is still to be achieved. The salient features of major challenges for achieving food security is summarized in the below Table 14.1. 14.5 Strategies for Sustainable Food Security Food security requires more than good conservation programs, which can be – and usually are – overridden and undermined by inappropriate agricultural, economic, and trade policies. Nor is it just a matter of adding an environmental component to programs. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 261 Table 14.1 Challenges and salient features of food insecurity in Bangladesh Challenges Population growth Urbanization Shrinking of arable land Soil fertility decline Climate change Poverty Hike of food price Salient features The main challenge for achieving and sustaining food security comes from continuing growth of population The population is still increasing by 1.8 million every year which is alarming to meet the food security At present about 30 % of the population lives in urban settlement and the trend show that it has increased steadily by 3.5 % annually The main reason for urbanization today in Bangladesh because of climate related hazards like flood, cyclones, river bank erosion etc. Increasing demands for energy, water, land and natural resources for rapid urban population have already posed a serious threat to the food security in the urban areas in Bangladesh The arable land has been shrinking by 1 % every year due to demand from housing and industries, and infrastructure, as well as loss of land from river erosion Global warming and climate change, another one-sixth of the land may be submerged with brackish water due to rising sea levels Overexploitation of soil nutrients due to intensive cropping and imbalanced use of fertilizers The ground water aquifer has been going down from over-mining for irrigating boro rice An increasing trend of temperature annually 0.05 °C and 0.03 °C respectively Erotic rainfall behavior and increasing and decreasing rainfall pattern, intensity and distribution of rainfall is also responsible for unrest agricultural production Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries in the world considering GDP growth compared to the global scale About 40 % of people in rural Bangladesh earned less than $1.25 per day and 60 % of that income is spent on food Financial inability of the poor to purchase sufficient food The structure of domestic food market is very complex especially rice The rural pro-poor suffer mostly from increased food price because they are net buyers of rice Food strategies must take into account all the policies that bear upon the threefold challenge of shifting production to where it is most needed, of securing the livelihoods of the rural poor, and of conserving resources. 14.5.1 Government Intervention Government intervention in agriculture is the rule in both industrial and developing countries. Public investment in agricultural research and extension services, assisted farm credit and marketing services, and a range of other support systems have all golam.rabbani@bcas.net 262 U. Habiba et al. played parts in the successes of the last half-century. In fact, the real problem in many developing countries is the weakness of these systems. However, intervention has taken other forms as well. Many governments regulate virtually the entire food cycle – inputs and outputs, domestic sales, exports, public procurement, storage and distribution, price controls and subsidies – as well as imposing various land use regulations: acreage, crop variety, and so on. 14.5.2 A Global Perspective Shifting food production towards food-deficit countries will require a major shift in trading patterns. Countries must recognize that all parties lose through protectionist barriers, which reduce trade in food products in which some nations may have genuine advantage. They must begin by redesigning their trade, tax, and incentive systems using criteria that include ecological and economic sustainability and international comparative advantage. The incentive-driven surpluses in developed market economies increase pressures to export these surpluses at subsidized prices or as non-emergency food aid. Donor and receiving countries should be responsible for the impacts of aid and use it for long-term objectives. It can be beneficially used in projects to restore degraded lands, build up rural infrastructure, and raise the nutrition level of vulnerable groups. 14.5.3 The Resource Base Agricultural production can only be sustained on a long-term basis if the land, water, and forests on which it is based are not degraded. As suggested, a reorientation of public intervention will provide a framework for this. But more specific policies that protect the resource base are needed to maintain and even enhance agricultural productivity and the livelihoods of all rural dwellers. Land Use Enhancing the resource base will be delineated broad land categories: • enhancement areas, which are capable of sustaining intensive cropping and higher population and consumption levels; • prevention areas, which by common consent should not be developed for intensive agriculture or. where developed, should be converted to other uses; and • restoration areas, where land stripped of vegetative cover has either totally lost its productivity or had it drastically reduced Identifying land according to ‘best use’ criteria requires information that is not always available. Most industrial nations possess inventories and descriptions of golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 263 their lands, forests, and waters that are detailed enough to provide a basis for delineating land categories. Few developing countries have such inventories, but they can and should develop them quickly using satellite monitoring and other rapidly changing techniques. Water Management Improvements in water management are essential to raise agricultural productivity and to reduce land degradation and water pollution. Critical issues concern the design of irrigation projects and the efficiency of water use. Where water is scarce, an irrigation project should maximize productivity per unit of water; where water is plentiful, it must maximize productivity per unit of land. But local conditions will dictate how much water can be used without damaging the soil. Salinization, alkalization, and water logging can be avoided by a more careful approach to drainage, maintenance, cropping patterns, the regulation of water quantities, and more rational water charges. In some areas excessive use of ground-water is rapidly lowering the water table – usually a case where private benefits are being realized at society’s expense. Where ground-water use exceeds the recharge capacity of local aquifers, regulatory or fiscal controls become essential. The combined use of ground and surface water can improve the timing of water availability and stretch limited supplies. Alternative to Chemicals Chemical fertilizers and pesticides are heavily subsidized in many countries. These subsidies promote chemical use precisely in the more commercially oriented agricultural areas where their environmental damage may already outweigh any increases in productivity they bring. Hence different regions will require different policies to regulate and promote chemical use. Legislative and institutional frameworks for controlling agrochemicals must be greatly strengthened everywhere. Industrialized countries must tighten controls on pesticide exports. Developing countries must possess the basic legislative and institutional instruments to manage the use of agricultural chemicals within their countries. They will need technical and financial assistance to do so. Forestry and Agriculture Undisturbed forests protect watersheds, reduce erosion, offer habitats for wild species, and play key roles in climatic systems. They are also an economic resource providing timber, fuel wood, and other products. The crucial task is to balance the need to exploit forests against the need to preserve them. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 264 U. Habiba et al. Sound forest policies can be based only on an analysis of the capacity of the forests and the land under them to perform various functions. Such an analysis might lead to some forests being cleared for intensive cultivation, others for livestock; some forestland might be managed for increased timber production or agroforestry use and some left intact for watershed protection, recreation, or species conservation. The extension of agriculture into forest areas must be based on scientific classification of land capacities. Aquaculture Fisheries and aquaculture are critical to food security in that they provide both protein and employment. Aquaculture or ‘fish-farming’, which differs from conventional fishing in that fish are deliberately reared in controlled water bodies, can help meet future needs. Yields from aquaculture have doubled during the last decade and now represent about 10 % of world production of fishery products. A five- to tenfold increase is projected by the year 2000, given the necessary scientific, financial, and organizational support. Aquaculture can be undertaken in paddy fields, abandoned raining excavations, small ponds, and many other areas with some water, as well as on various commercial scales: individual, family, cooperative, or corporate. The expansion of aquaculture should be given high priority in developing and developed countries. 14.5.4 Productivity and Yields The conservation and enhancement of agriculture’s resource base will increase production and productivity. But specific measures are required to make inputs more effective. This is best done by strengthening the technological and human resource base for agriculture in developing countries. The Technical Base Blends of traditional and modern technologies offer possibilities for improving nutrition and increasing rural employment on a sustainable basis. Biotechnology including tissue culture techniques, technologies for preparing value-added products from biomass, micro-electronics, computer sciences, satellite imagery, and communication technology are all aspects of frontier technologies that can improve agricultural productivity and resource management. To serve agriculture in these areas, research has to be less centralized and more sensitive to farmers’ conditions and priorities. Scientists will need to start talking to poor farmers and basing research priorities on growers’ priorities. Researchers must learn from and develop the innovations of farmers and not just the reverse. More adaptive research should be done right on the farm, using research stations for referral and with farmers eventually evaluating the results. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 265 Human Resources The technological transformation of traditional agriculture will be difficult without a matching effort to develop human resources. This means educational reforms to produce researchers more attuned to the needs of rural peoples and agriculture. Illiteracy is still widespread among the rural poor. But efforts to promote literacy should focus attention on functional literacy covering the efficient use of land, water, and forests. Despite women’s critical role in agriculture, their access to education and their representation in research, extension, and other support services is woefully inadequate. Women should be given the same educational opportunities as men. There should be more female extension workers, and women should participate in field visits. Women should be given more power to take decisions regarding agricultural and forestry programs. Productivity of Inputs In traditional agriculture, local organic material provided farmers with sources of energy, nutrients, and ways of controlling pests. Today, these needs are increasingly met by electricity, petroleum products, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. The cost of these inputs forms a growing proportion of agricultural costs, and wasteful use does economic and ecological harm. One of the most important energy-related needs is mechanical power for irrigation. The efficiency of pumps could be greatly improved by providing appropriate incentives for equipment producers and farmers, and through effective extension work. Energy for irrigation pumps can also be provided by wind generators or by conventional internal combustion engines running on biogas produced from local biomass wastes. Solar dryers and solar coolers can save agricultural products. These non-conventional sources should be promoted, particularly in areas poor in energy resources. Nutrients are lost when fertilizers are improperly applied. Often they leach away with the flow of water in a field and degrade local water supplies. Similar problems of waste and destructive side effects occur in the use of pesticides. Hence extension systems and chemical manufacturers will need to give priority to programs to promote careful and economical use of these expensive, toxic materials. 14.5.5 Equity The challenge of sustainable agriculture is to raise not just average productivity and incomes, but also the productivity and incomes of those poor in resources. Food security is not just a question of raising food production, but of ensuring that the rural and urban poor do not go hungry during the short term or midst a local food scarcity. All this requires the systematic promotion of equity in food production and distribution. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 266 U. Habiba et al. Land Reforms In many countries where land is very unequally distributed land reform is a basic requirement. Without it, institutional and policy changes meant to protect the resource base can actually promote inequalities by shutting the poor off from resources and by favouring those with large farms, who are better able to obtain the limited credit and services available. By leaving hundreds of millions without options, such changes can have the opposite of their intended effect, ensuring the continued violation of ecological imperatives. Given institutional and ecological variations, a universal approach to land reform is impossible. Each country should work out its own program of land reform to assist the land-poor and to provide a base for coordinated resource conservation. The redistribution of land is particularly important where large estates and vast numbers of the land-poor coexist. Crucial components include the reform of tenancy arrangements, security of tenure, and the clear recording of land rights. In agrarian reforms the productivity of the land and. in forest areas, the protection of forests should be a major concern. Subsistence Farmers and Pastoralists Subsistence farmers, pastoralists, and nomads threaten the environmental resource base when processes beyond their control squeeze their numbers onto land or into areas that cannot support them. The traditional rights of subsistence farmers, particularly shifting cultivators, pastoralists and nomads, must therefore be protected from encroachments. Land tenure rights and communal rights in particular must be respected. When their traditional practices threaten the resource base, their rights may have to be curtailed, but only when alternatives have been provided. Most of these groups will need to be helped to diversify their livelihoods by entering the market economy through employment programs and some cash-crop production. Research should give early attention to the varied requirements of the mixed farming typical in subsistence agriculture. Extension and input supply systems must become more mobile to reach shifting cultivators and nomads and priority given to public investment to improve their cropland, grazing areas, and water sources. Integrated Rural Development Considerable effort has gone into creating strategies of integrated rural development, and the requirements and pitfalls are well known. Experience has shown that land reform is necessary but alone is not enough without support through the distribution of inputs and rural services. Smallholders, including – indeed especially – women, must be given preference when allocating scarce resources, staff, and credit. Small farmers must also be more involved in formulating agricultural policies. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 267 Integrated rural development also requires resources to absorb the large increases in rural working populations expected in most developing countries through nonagricultural work opportunities, which should be promoted in rural areas. Successful agricultural development and the growth in incomes should open up opportunities in service activities and small-scale manufacturing if supported by public policy. Food Availability Fluctuations Environmental degradation can make food shortages more frequent and more severe. Hence sustainable agricultural development will reduce the season-toseason variability in food supplies. But such systems cannot eliminate it. There will be weather-induced fluctuations, and the growing dependence on only a few crop varieties over large areas may amplify the effects of weather and pest damage. Often it is the poorest households and the ecologically disadvantaged regions that suffer most from these shortages. The food stocks of industrialized countries are essentially surpluses, and provide a basis for emergency assistance, which must be maintained. But emergency food aid is a precarious basis for food security: developing countries should build up national stocks in surplus years to provide reserves as well as encouraging development of food security at the household level. To do this, they will need an effective system of public support for measures facilitating the purchase, transportation, and distribution of food. The provision of strategically located storage facilities is critical both to reduce post-harvest losses and to provide a base for quick interventions in emergencies. 14.6 Priority Actions for Food Security Food insecurity and under nutrition, climate change, increasing demand competition for energy and water, degradation of land and biodiversity are the multiple emergent challenges at the global level are connected in complex ways and demand an integrated management approach. Based on robust scientific evidence, the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change has identified critical leverage points and high priority policy actions that help to achieve food security. Moreover by these steps, it can deliver long term benefits to communities in all countries. The recommended actions are in the following: (i) Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into global and national policies • Establish a work program on mitigation and adaptation in agriculture in accordance with the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), based on Article 2, as a first step to inclusion of agriculture in the mainstream of international climate change policy. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 268 U. Habiba et al. • Make sustainable, climate-friendly agriculture central to Green Growth and the Rio + 20 Earth Summit. • Finance ‘early action’ to drive change in agricultural production systems towards increasing resilience to weather variability and shocks, while contributing significantly to mitigating climate change. This includes supporting national climate risk assessments, developing mitigation and adaptation strategies, and program implementation. • Develop common platforms at global, regional and national levels for coherent dialogue and policy action related to climate change, agriculture, crisis response and food security, at global, regional and national levels. These include fostering country-level coalitions for food security and building resilience, particularly in countries most vulnerable to climate shocks. (ii) Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture and food systems in the next decade • Implement and strengthen the existing G8 L’Aquila programs and commitments to sustainable agriculture and food security, including long-term commitments for financial and technical assistance in food production and to empower smallholder farmers. • Enable UNFCCC Fast Start funding, major development banks and other global finance mechanisms to prioritize sustainable agriculture programs that deliver food security, improved livelihoods, resilience to climate change and environmental co-benefits. Such programs should emphasize improving infrastructure and land rehabilitation. • Adjust national research and development budgets, and build integrated scientific capacity, to reflect the significance of sustainable agriculture in economic growth, poverty reduction and long-term environmental sustainability, and focus on key food security issues (for example, developing nutritious non-grain crops and reducing postharvest losses). • Increase knowledge of best practices and access to innovation by supporting revitalized extension services, technology transfer and communities of practice (for example, North-south, South-South, cross-commodity and farmer-to-farmer exchanges), with emphasis on low to high-income countries and on women farmers. (iii) Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative environmental impacts of agriculture • Develop, facilitate and reward multi-benefit farming systems that enable more productive and resilient livelihoods and ecosystems, with emphasis on closing yield gaps and improving nutrition. • Introduce strategies for minimizing ecosystem degradation and rehabilitating degraded environments, with emphasis on community-designed programs. • Empower marginalized food producers (particularly women) to increase productivity of a range of appropriate crops by strengthening land and golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 269 water rights, increasing access to markets, finance and insurance, and enhancing local capacity (for example through farmer and communitybased organizations). • Identify and modify subsidies (such as for water and electricity) that provide incentives for farmers to continue agricultural practices that deplete water supplies or destroy native ecosystems. Introduce compensation schemes that target the poor. • Couple economic incentives for sustainable intensification of agriculture with strengthening governance of land tenure and land zoning to prevent further loss of forests, wetlands and grasslands. (iv) Develop specific programs and policies to assist populations and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate changes and food insecurity • Develop funds that respond to climate shocks, such as ‘index-linked funds’ that provide rapid relief when extreme weather events affect communities, through public private partnerships, based on agreed principles. • Involvement of private sector with other stakeholders to improve food security related actions such as training, appropriate technology and resource management practices in order to cope with climate change and mitigate their risks in the face of high climatic and price volatility • Moderate excessive food price fluctuations by sharing country information on production forecasts and stocks, strengthening market databases, promoting open and responsive trade systems, establishing early warning systems and allowing tax-free export and import for humanitarian assistance. This includes embedding safeguards related to import surges and trade distortions in trade agreements. • Create and support safety nets and other programs to help vulnerable populations in all countries become food secure (for example, cash and in-kind transfers, employment guarantee schemes, programs to build resilience, health and nutrition, delivery of education and seeds of quick growing foods in times of famine). • Establish robust emergency food reserves and financing capacity that can deliver rapid humanitarian responses to vulnerable populations threatened by food crises. • Create and support platforms for harmonizing and coordinating global donor programs, policies and activities, paying particular attention to systematically integrating climate change risk management, adaptation and mitigation co-benefits, and improved local nutritional outcomes. (v) Reshape food access and consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met and to foster healthy and sustainable eating patterns worldwide • Address chronic under nutrition and hunger by harmonizing development policy and coordinating regional programs to improve livelihoods and access to services among food-insecure rural and urban communities. golam.rabbani@bcas.net 270 U. Habiba et al. • Promote positive changes in the variety and quantity of diets through innovative education campaigns, which target young consumers especially, and through economic incentives that align the marketing practices of retailers and processors with public health and environmental goals. • Promote and support a coherent set of evidence-based sustainability metrics and standards to monitor and evaluate food security, nutrition and health, practices and technologies across supply chains, agricultural productivity and efficiency, resource use and environmental impacts, and food system costs and benefits. This should include providing consumers with clear labeling. (vi) Reduce loss and waste in food systems, targeting infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution and household habits • In all sustainable agriculture development programs, include research and investment components focusing on reducing waste, from production to consumption, by improving harvest and postharvest management and food storage and transport. • Develop integrated policies and programs that reduce waste in food supply chains, such as economic innovation to enable low-income producers to store food during periods of excess supply and obligations for distributors to separate and reduce food waste. • Promote dialogue and convene working partnerships across food supply chains to ensure that interventions to reduce waste are effective and efficient (for example, redirecting food waste to other purposes), and do not create perverse incentives. (vii) Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human and ecological dimensions • Sustain and increase investment in regular monitoring, on the ground and by public domain remote sensing networks, to track changes in land use, food production, climate, the environment, human health and well-being worldwide. • Support improved transparency and access to information in global food markets and invest in interlinked information systems with common protocols that build on existing institutions. • Develop, validate and implement spatially explicit data and decisionsupport systems that integrate biophysical and socioeconomic information and that enable policy makers to navigate trade-offs among agricultural intensification, nutritional security and environmental consequences. 14.7 Conclusion It is reported by Allen and Ingram (2002), Lal et al. (2001a, b), McCarthy et al. (2001), O’Brien et al. (2004), and Gosain et al. (2006) that the climate change is surely creating grounds for newer and more severe risks of disasters in the region in the coming years. This will have a big impact on food production and this might be golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 271 one of the biggest challenges for food security in future (Lal et al. 2011). Climate change not only causes more frequent rain, storm, flood even drought but also directly affects local food security system (Busscher 2012). This might cause scarcity of food locally which then will affect sustainable food security negatively. It has been further noticed by several studies that climate sensitive agrarian economies of the region would be facing serious crisis unless the rising temperature of the globe and the region are checked and new technologies, practices and life styles are developed and adapted according to the changing climate scenarios (Richards 2003; Christoplos et al. 2001; Bruce et al. 1996). Many of the risk reduction measures particularly those related to hydro-meteorological disasters, such as drought proofing, flood protection, saline embankment and bio-shields, alternative livelihood development etc. have similarities with climate change adaptation (CCA) programs (Lim and Spanger-Siegfried 2005). For the first time ever disaster risk reduction was included as a tool for climate change adaptation, which will guide the negotiations for a post Kyoto climate change agreement from 2012, This has opened up a range of possibilities for integration of climate change adaptation in disaster risk reduction strategies (UNISDR Report 2008). Likewise, climate change mitigation and adaptation have emerged as important tools for disaster risk reduction for all the countries in the region. Since, it needs to incorporate measures to reduce disaster and climate change risk in the main sectors of developmental and humanitarian intervention: food security; livelihoods; natural resource management; water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH); education; health; and protection (Turnbull et al. 2013). In this regards, taking an approach to food security that incorporates disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will sustain food security, increase the resilience of at-risk populations to disaster and climate change risk, at the same time protecting and enhancing local ecosystems and enhancing human resources needed to reduce overall vulnerability. Figure 14.3 shows the overall the way how to sustain food security. Fig. 14.3 Integrated approach to sustain food security golam.rabbani@bcas.net 272 U. Habiba et al. References Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419:224–232 Bruce JP, Lee H, Haites EF (1996) Climate change 1995: economic and social dimensions of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Busscher W (2012) Spending our water and soils for food. J Soil Water Conserv 67(3):228–234 Christoplos I, Mitchel J, Liljelund A (2001) Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness. Disasters 25(3):185–198 FAO (2010) The State of Food security in the world. Addressing food insecurity in protracted crises. Publishing Policy and Support Branch, Rome Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (n.d.) Sustainable food security, the role of FAO’s Sustainable Development Department. Available at: http://www.fao.org/sd/FSdirect/ FSintro.htm. Accessed 18 Sept 2014 Gosain AK, Rao S, Basuray D (2006) Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins. Curr Sci 90(3):346–353 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK (eds)] International Development Research Centre (1999) For Hunger-proof-cities: sustainable urban food systems. International Development Research Centre, Ottawa Jain P, Hansra B, Chakraporty K, Kurup JM (2010) Sustainable food security. Krishan Mittal by Mittal Publications, New Delhi Lal M, Harasawa H, Murdiyarso D (2001a) Asia. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 877–912 Lal M, Nozawa T, Emori S, Harasawa H, Takahashi K, Kimoto M, Abe-Ouchi A, Nkajima T, Takemura T, Numaguti A (2001b) Future climate change: implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Curr Sci 81:1196–1207 Lal R, Sivakumar MVK, Faiz SMA, Rahman AHMM, Islam KR (2011) Climate change and food security in South Asia. Springer, Dordrecht/Heidelberg/New York/London. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9516-9 Lim B, Spanger-Siegfried E (2005) Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: developing strategies, policies and measures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p 258 McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p 1008 O’Brien K, Leichenko R, Kelkar U, Venema H, Aandahl G, Tompkins H, Javed A, Bhadwal S, Barg S, Nygaard L, West J (2004) Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Glob Environ Chang 14:303–313 Richards M (2003) Poverty reduction, equity and climate change: challenges for global governance. Nat Resour Perspect 83. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/index.html. Cited 18 Jan 2007 Schipper L, Pelling M (2006) Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope and challenges for integration. Disasters 30(1):19–38 Thomalla F, Downing T, Spanger-Siegried E, Han G, Rockstrom J (2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters 30(l):39 golam.rabbani@bcas.net 14 Future Approaches of Food Security, Sustainable Development… 273 Turnbull M, Sterrett CL, Hilleboe A (2013) Toward resilience: a guide to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Practical Action Publishing Limited, Warwickshire UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) (2008) Towards national resilience: good practices of national platforms for disaster risk reduction. United Nations secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR), Geneva, p 72 United Nations, Development of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009) World population prospects: the 2008 revision, New York (Extended Dataset on CD-ROM, ST/ESA/ SER.A/283, Sales No. 09.XII.6) golam.rabbani@bcas.net