Members: Audace GATAVU -Burundi

GROUP 1 Country: Tanzania Topic : Political Conflict in Tanzania Early Warning: Analysis of the Potential Conflict, Possible Preventive Measures, Management and Resolution of the Conflict. Members: Audace GATAVU - Burundi Amina Adhan - Kenya 1 INTRODUCTION Colonial History The United Republic of Tanzania was formed on 26th April 1964 through a union between mainland Tanganyika and Zanzibar islands. Both territories share a long history of colonialism, Tanganyika was under German colonialism from 1885 to 1920 when Germany lost world war one and its territories in East Africa were redistributed and the League of Nations put Tanzania under British rule. British rule did not emphasis obedience like the Germans but used divide and rule thereby emphasizing identity. It is during this period that many organizations were formed on identity basis, Tanzania African Association formed in 1922 as a platform for educated Africans was notable as it evolved into Tanzania African National Union (TANU) in 1954. TANU became a nationalist party that is accredited with agitating for independence. In 1960 Tanganyika had self governance and became independent in December 1961 with Nyerere as Prime Minister then President in 1962 when the mainland became a republic. Tanganyika was a de facto one party state until 1965 when it became a de jure one party state through a constitutional amendment. (Ahluwali & Zegeye, 2001) Zanzibar Islands had a different path to independence beset in turmoil. It was first under Portuguese rule who were then overthrown by Omani Arabs. Omani Arabs stayed on from the 18th century instituting slavery on the Island to cater to clove production. Arab dominance continued despite British control of administrative structures and finance this brought on racist politics fueled by favoritism and exploitation of some classes. Karume (2006) asserts that the political parties formed were ethnic based as the British created political identities by practicing favoritism in the same line. The Zanzibar nationalist Party (ZNP) was for Arabs, the Afro Shirazi Party (ASP) for Shirazi people and the Africans and Zanzibar and Pemba Peoples Party (ZPPP) was a break away from ASP and was mainly Shirazi people. In consequent elections ZNP won through British support in elections and in 1964 they won again, however they won through what was seen as unfair means as ASP got the majority of the votes but ZNP and ZPPP formed a coalition .In 1964, ASP decided to revolt against the Sultan’s government led by a Ugandan John Okello. They succeeded in the revolt with Abeid Amani Karume as their first president. 2 Political history In 1977, TANU and ASP merged to form Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) as that was a great way to keep the union together and the leaders shared an ideology of Pan Africanism. Since then CCM has been in power albeit with serious contest from opposition especially in Zanzibar where elections in 1995 and 2000 were marked by violence. Tanzania became a multiparty state in 1992 bowing to international pressure of political conditionality for foreign aid. The 1995 and 2000 elections were largely contested with main political parties at the time being Civic United Front (CUF) in Zanzibar and CCM in mainland. As Mpangala (2005) states, the elections were termed not free and fair by both local and international observers with Tanzania Election Monitoring Committee and Commonwealth Group calling for fresh elections in 2000 after the first instance of elections were rife with electoral fraud ranging from delay of voting materials to vote counting delays. In the disputed elections in 2000, voting was conducted by Zanzibar Election Commission (ZEC) whereby vote counting was disrupted, transferred for ZEC’s headquarters to the district commissioner’s office where the counting was done a week later. The results indicated CCM as the winner and CUF refused to accept the results and boycotting meetings of parliament. The political conflict culminated in a clash between police and CUF protestors where 31 were killed. The ruling party has been able to stay in power due to its repression of other political parties by use of security instruments, a constitution that outlaws coalitions between political parties and its use of state resources to fund its campaigns. People have reverence for CCM for its role in attaining independence and also because of the Pan African ideology espoused by its charismatic leader Julius Nyerere. Due to its long stay in power a large part of the population which is uneducated has come to identify the party as the state. (Reith, 2011). CCM had always presented a single candidate for the presidential post and only two at other levels to ensure the person chosen is supported by majority. Opposition parties on the other hand did not seize the lack of competition in CCM to gain power they instead remained divided with most of them focused on their stronghold for instance CUF drawing supporters from Muslim population in Zanzibar and coastal areas. National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR)-Mageuzi, an party formed in 1993 just after multipartism started was the main opposition to CCM securing 27.8% 0f the votes but in 2000 elections it had split into two disrupting the momentum opposition was gaining in Tanzania (Karume, 2006) 3 CHADEMA was also formed in 1993 but has only managed to pose serious competition to CCM in the 2010 elections. CHADEMA got 26 % of the votes becoming the leading opposition party followed by CUF. CHADEMA has increasingly become popular because of its presidential candidate in 2010; Wilbrod Slaa who had earlier in 2007 made public a list of corrupt ministers and high level ranking CCM party officials. In 2010 Slaa took on the campaign with fighting corruption as its highest agenda, making him popular Justas Nyerere was for his anticorruption policies. (Reith, 2011). INDICATORS OF POTENTIAL CONFLICT Abuse of Civil and Political Rights According to the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2012 of United States Department of State; Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor; the three most widespread and systemic human rights problems in the country were excessive use of force by security forces resulting in deaths and injuries, restrictions on political expression, and lack of access to justice as well as a related continuation of mob violence. The by-election in Arumeru (a district of Arusha Region) for an open seat in parliament was held on April 1 and was largely free and fair. On more than one occasion, however, paramilitary soldiers used tear gas to disperse crowds of CHADEMA opposition-party supporters demanding the expeditious release of results The September 16 2012 by-election in Bububu for another open seat in the Zanzibar House of Representatives resulted in a number of irregularities. CUF officials alleged that police and other security personnel under CCM command patrolled CUF neighborhoods, leveling their weapons at civilians and firing shots into the air. The militarized nature of the election, the related intimidation, the act of transporting supporters by bus, and the close results prompted some to question the fairness of the election On September 6 2012, Registrar of Political Parties John Tendwa threatened to deregister parties if they did not cease organizing multiple demonstrations. He criticized CHADEMA in particular for demonstrations in Arusha, Singida, Morogoro, and Iringa that resulted in the death of participants. 4 Excessive Use of Force by Police On August 27, during clashes between police and supporters of the CHADEMA opposition party, Ali Zona was killed and several others injured in Msamvu, Morogoro Region. According to CHADEMA officials, police denied demonstrators’ request to demonstrate shortly before the scheduled time, citing that a demonstration should not be held on a workday. Besides the CHADEMA party chairperson for Usa River in Arumeru, Arusha region was killed by unidentified assailants following the April 1 by-election. An investigation into the case was pending by the end of 2012. Low Level political Conflict The last in date is the Bomb blast which hit Arusha June 2013. Three people were reported killed and more than 70 injured when the bomb was thrown to thronged political election rally held by Tanzanian opposing party CHADEMA. Politics to some extent, is currently dominating the Police force and internal security units, where junior and senior officers are blamed to spend most of their meager resources for training to crash the opposition political rallies through brutal beatings of peaceful demonstrators and the arrest of opposing leaders With all these indicators at one year time of election, it is obvious that an open conflict may rise at any time. If opposition parties are facing these treats today, confidence in fair and democratic elections is lacking. Therefore, any scenario can happen either during political rallies, during election or after results delivery. Lack of Economic and Social development Tanzania took a path of socialist economic model (Ujamaa) after independence championed by Nyerere who sought to have an egalitarian country. Ujamaa sought to nationalize commercial banks, industries and control of agriculture by peasants and in 1967; he made the Arusha declaration saying the country would pursue self reliance. This economic model largely failed, and Nyerere refused to adopt IMF and World Bank advice to liberalize the economy further plunging the country in economic debt. (Institute for security Studies Africa) .The country has never recovered since then due to high level corruption with Tanzania loosing an third of its national budget to corruption annually. According to Transparency International Tanzania’s 5 corruption level is at 67% as of 2013 and 16th most corrupt country in the world. Corruption and socialism had contributed largely to underdevelopment, high poverty levels and high unemployment is a threat to peace only waiting a trigger. INTERVENTION Intra state conflicts are regional burdens as effects of conflict in one state has negative impacts on others hence the need for concerted effort. Multilateral efforts have previously failed to prevent large scale conflicts such as the Rwanda genocide and Somalia. Therefore there is need to synchronize local and regional interventions. The case of Tanzania requires immediate national level action to address root causes of conflict as low level conflicts have already been witnessed. State Level Mechanisms Reform of Electoral System The National Election Commission is not considered independent and credible as the commissioners are appointed by the president who is also a member of the ruling party. Considering their crucial roles of determining all electoral procedures, boundaries and dealing with election complaints the electoral commissioners should be appointed through a consultative process. As Babeiya (2011 asserts) party loyalty has played a role in the appointment of key personnel especially since there are no established rules to ensure presidential appointments are objective. Ministry for local government and regional administration run elections at local levels putting credibility of the elections in doubt considering this officers presiding over the elections are in government and mostly from the ruling party. Electoral fraud has been attributed to an electoral commission that is biased and is manipulated to favor some interests. In 1995 election in Zanzibar, the electoral commission not only delayed counting but transferred the process to district commissioner’s offices indicating interference. The elections were not deemed fair by both local and international observers due to lack of proper accountability. (Mpangala, 2005) Parliament should also approve of all appointment of executives and vetting of the candidates should be done in public. 6 Reform of Security Sector In disputed elections in Zanzibar, excessive use of state security organs to delay the vote counting indicated that they security instruments were not impartial as required. Police have continuously used excessive force against unarmed civilians especially during demonstrations. In 2012 journalist Daudi Mwangosi was killed by a gun canister released on him by police during a rally by CHADEMA. There have been several other incidences of police brutality but no action has been taken against the police force. (iReport) Reform of Constitution Although Multipartism was legalized in 1992, the constitutions prohibit political coalitions ensuring that other parties will not effectively compete with CCM and remove it from power. This limits democratic competition and renders the opposition democratically irrelevant due to its minimal numbers and disunity in opposition. The constitution should be reviewed to allow pre- election and post election coalitions to facilitate fair competition and a chance for other parties to get into power. (Freedom House) In November 2011 National Act was passed forming a commission to reform the constitution; however opposition parties were opposed to the commission on grounds that enough public consultations were not sought. In the same month Jukwaa la Katiba sought to hold demonstrations in Dar es Salaam against the president signing the bill but they were denied permission. Judicial Review should be provided for in the new draft constitution that is in the process of formulation. This will provide checks and balances and ensure all actions of the legislature and executive are in line with the constitution. Establishment of Independent Judiciary The new constitution should limit presidential powers; the president should not appoint the Chief justice and judges of the high court, the positions should be advertised and interviews conducted 7 by an independent judicial service commission as done in Kenya. This will ensure that the judiciary is independent. Also vetting of all levels of judges should be carried out to ensure judicial reform. Vetting of Judges and Magistrates Act in 2011 in Kenya was a great step as it vetted with some judges of Appeal court dismissed from their positions on grounds of lack of integrity, backlog of cases and lack of professionalism. Uphold International and Regional Obligations Tanzania is party to both the African Charter on Human and People’s rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political rights. The above obligations do not only require states party to them to refrain from human rights abuses but also take measures to promote human rights and prevent reoccurrence of human rights violations. The government should refrain from hindering political gatherings and demonstrations. Regional level East African Community (EAC) Article 124 of the founding treaty of the east African Community recognizes peace and security as the prerequisite to social and economic development of the region and therefore provides for cooperation between the partner states in dealing with threats to peace by prevention, management and resolution of peace. Article 27(2) the council of ministers determines the jurisdiction of the East African Court of Justice and should therefore make amendments to give the court appellate mandate and include issues of human rights. In this way partner states that have no courts to address issues such as election disputes can have a mechanism to address disputes. The East African Community should sent election observer missions to partner states as it did in Kenya in 2013 when they have elections. This will serve to certify that elections are free and fair by putting pressure on the bodies responsible to conduct elections in a manner that is transparent. It can also put pressure for fresh elections to be conducted as in the case of Zanzibar in 2000. 8 The EAC can also provide mediation in the potential election dispute to prevent escalation of the crisis and provide resolution mechanism. This mediation will be carried out under the good offices of the secretary general either through the secretary general, representative or the panel of the wise. Conflict early warning mechanisms as provided for by the EAC Strategy for Regional Peace and Security can be implemented by the EAC to provide for preventive diplomacy by collecting, analyzing and disseminating information regarding potential conflicts to relevant EAC organs for action. African Union (AU) The AU Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) under Article 12 of the AU known as the situation room as established by Peace and Security Council Protocol is already functional and it can be utilized in conjunction with the EAC to detect potential conflicts and recommend appropriate and timely action by the AU. In accordance with the provision in Article 10(c ) of the Peace and Security Council Protocol of the African Union, mediation by African panel of the wise should be undertaken as preventive diplomacy and to resolve the conflict. Mediation by such a panel is a crucial turning point in political conflict as seen in the case of Kenya where a panel of eminent African personalities negotiated for peace resulting in a signing of National peace Accord by the two disputing political parties. Article 13 of the Peace and Security Council Protocol provides for Africa Standby force which can be used to deter conflict by preventive deployment, intervention in escalating conflict at the request of the member state and peace support missions. All actions of the AU should be in partnership with the UN as per article 53 and 54 of the UN charter 9 International Level United Nations The UN shall channel its actions of preventive diplomacy, early warning and peacemaking through regional arrangement such as the AU and EAC as provided for in article 53 of the UN treaty. The UN Security Council may therefore engage in early warning in cooperation with the regional early warning mechanism so as to detect potential conflicts provided for by article 39. The Security Council can also implement article 41 of the charter applying economic and diplomatic sanctions on countries that continue to violate UN charter principles on peace. The UN may use military force and send peacekeeping missions in fragile countries to maintain peace as article 44 of the charter stipulates All intervention measures suggested will be ineffective if political will from all stakeholders lacks. Domestic measures should take precedence but if the measures are not adequate the East African Community should intervene; the best way being through mediation by the panel of the wise. The council of ministers of the EAC should move towards implementing the pending drafts on peace and conflict resolution mechanism and tools. 10 REFERENCES Ahluwali & Zegeye (2001). Multiparty Democracy in Tanzania: Crisis in the Union. African Security Review, 10 (3). Retrieved from http://www.issafrica.org/pubs/ASR/10No3/AhluwaliaAndZegeye.html on 26/11/2013 Article 10(c), 12, and 13 of the Peace and Security Protocol of the African Union. Article 44, 53 and 54 of the United Nations Charter. Babeiya, Edwin (2011) Electoral Corruption and the Politics of Election Financing. Journal of Politics and Law, 4(2) Retrieved from http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jpl/article/view/11994/0 on 26/11/2013 2012. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2012 United States Department of State. Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor. Retrieved from http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/204386.pdf on 26/11/2013 (2013) East Africa Bribery Index http://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/bribery_remains_high_in_east_africa_but_90_of _citizens_will_not_report on 26/11/2013 (2013) Freedom in the world. Retrieved from http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedomworld/2013/tanzania on 26/11/2013 Karume, Shumbana (2006). Dilemmas of Political Transition: Towards Institutionalization of Multiparty Democracy in Tanzania. The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa, 7. Retrieved from http://www.eisa.org.za/PDF/rr7.pdf on 26/11/2013 Mpangala P. Gaudens (2005) The Zanzibar Conflict: A Search for Durable Solutions. Retrieved from http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/CHAP6M128.PDF on 26/11/2013 Mwanakijiji (2013) Tanzanian Journalist Killed; Tanzanian Police under Fire. Retrieved from http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-836438 on 26/11/2013 11 Ojielo, Ozonnia (2010) Judicial Integrity and Vetting Process in Kenya. Amani Papers, 1(6).Retrieved from http://www.undp.org/content/dam/kenya/docs/Amani%20Papers/AP_Volume1_n6_Sept2010.pd f on 26/11/2013 Reith, Stefan (2011) Tanzania after the Parliamentary and Presidential elections 2010. Dawn of a Multiparty Era? KAS International Reports,1. 104 – 119. Retrieved from http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_21554-1522-2-30.pdf?110112143806 on 26/11/2013 12