European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
www.elsevier.com/locate/dsw
Theory and Methodology
An operational decision model for lead-time and price quotation in
congested manufacturing systems
Mohsen ElHafsi
Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0203, USA
Received 1 June 1998; accepted 1 May 1999
Abstract
This paper considers the problem of determining the lead-time and price to be quoted to a single order in a make-toorder manufacturing setting. The manufacturing system consists of several processing centers all subject to random
failures and repairs. Because of a time window constraint on the delivery of the order, the latter has to be split among
several processing centers to meet the constraint imposed on its delivery date. The assignment of lots to the processing
centers is based on minimizing the operating cost associated with the entire order (i.e., its price). Two major cases are
studied: the case of rushed order and the case of regular order. Each case has two options: Partial deliveries allowed and
partial deliveries not allowed. Exact and heuristic algorithms are developed for each situation. Numerical results are
used to draw conclusions and test the performance of the heuristics. Ó 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Production planning; Scheduling; Lot sizing; Stochastic; Optimization
1. Introduction
Short lead times and quick response to customer orders are important strategic considerations for a ®rm to survive in a time-based
competition market place. The success of the
Japanese manufacturing Just-In-Time (JIT) practices, which highlight the importance of short-lead
times, has further increased the level of competition. In addition, in todayÕs global manufacturing,
characterized by quick technology advances and
availability of capital, ®rms are increasingly dependent on fast response times as an important
source of sustainable competitive advantage. It is
reported that the ®rm that can oer and realize
shorter lead-time due dates is subject to less pressure when competing on the basis of price
(Blackburn, 1991).
In this paper, we propose a normative model
that addresses the customer preference with respect to price and lead-time due date. We study the
problem of how a ®rm should determine the price
and the lead-time due date to be quoted to an
upcoming order, based upon the congestion level
of the manufacturing shop ¯oor and the operating
cost associated with the production of the order.
This problem was motivated by an aluminumparts manufacturing plant. The latter runs seven
0377-2217/00/$ - see front matter Ó 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 3 7 7 - 2 2 1 7 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 2 9 4 - 5
356
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
automated assembly lines and manufacture about
1700 dierent part types. The manufactured parts
are supplied to automotive manufacturers, home
appliance manufacturers, and other customers.
Due to various degrees of automation, several
lines can be used to process the same part. The
lines have dierent throughput rates and operating
costs. Usually, high production rate means lower
cost. A major setup is required for switching a line
to a new part type (the major part of the setup is
performed o line). In this environment operating
costs are heavily aected by the allocation of jobs
to assembly lines. Cost reduction and short leadtime are the primary competitive tools in this environment. A decision support system for production planning can be used by the marketing/
sales department to quote customers realistic leadtime due dates. If costs of new orders can be approximated in advance (by determining the optimal allocation that does not violate committed
orders), the customer can be quoted a dierent
price for his requested shipment date. Rushing
orders would increase the manufacturing costs,
and hence these costs would be passed to the
customer. On the other hand, if the customer accepts the manufacturerÕs lead-time due date, the
quoted price could be signi®cantly lower. Many
other similar examples exist. For instance, many
manufacturing systems specialize in certain types
of products to serve only a ®xed number of customers. This is the case of small ®rms that are
owned by larger ones, such as in the automotive
industry (i.e., component suppliers, such as brakepad manufacturers).
A number of papers have focused on the leadtime due date setting problem. Early work in this
research area consisted of studies where the objective is to minimize the average weighted due
date quoted to customers while maintaining a
certain service level (Eilon and Chowdhury, 1976;
Weeks, 1979; Seidmann and Smith, 1981; Baker
and Bertrand, 1981a,b; Bertrand, 1983; Baker,
1984). The service level is de®ned as either the
maximum allowable average tardiness of jobs, or
the average percentage of tardy jobs. The manufacturing system is usually assumed to be a single
resource system. Recently, analytical models for
due date setting were considered by Bookbinder
and Noor (1985), Wein (1991) and Chand and
Chhajed (1992). The major ®nding of these studies
is that ®rms that assign customers lead-time due
dates based upon shop ¯oor congestion information achieve better on time delivery. A more recent
line of research consists of the work of Wein et al.
(1990), Li and Lee (1994), Lederer and Li (1994)
and Duenyas and Hopp (1995). These studies
broadly address the eect of quoted price and leadtime due dates on customer demand.
Most of the above literature deals with leadtime and pricing decisions at a strategic level and
focuses on simple models (e.g., M/M/1 and M/G/1
systems) dealing with a single product. However,
they serve in gaining insight into the nature of the
pricing and due date setting problem. Unfortunately, these models cannot be used to make day
to day operational decisions. Such decisions are
crucial to the survival of ®rms operating in highly
competitive markets. Including operational level
details in the above studies would result in intractable models. Similarly, it is extremely dicult
to include strategic level information into an operational decision model. In this paper, we address
day to day operational decisions that a ®rm faces
with respect to quoting lead-time due date and
price to an order about to be placed. The primary
objective of this research is to develop a model that
includes as much detail as possible so that realistic
lead-time due date and price can be achieved and
quoted to the customer. The tools developed for
decision making are very simple, yet powerful in
terms of eciency and speed (e.g., in a real-time
decision making environment).
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In
Section 2, we present the mathematical model. In
Section 3, we study the case of a rushed order.
Section 4 discusses the case of regular order. In
Section 5, we present numerical results. Section 6
concludes the paper.
2. Model formulation and basic results
2.1. Problem statement
Consider a manufacturing system consisting of
m processing centers. The centers can be thought
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
of as manufacturing cells. The partition of the
manufacturing system into centers is not necessarily physical (i.e., it may be a logical partition
according to dierent production processes). For a
similar application, the reader is referred to Liu
(1990). The centers are subject to random failures.
We assume that the probability law of the failure
process is known and follows a Poisson distribution (i.e., the time between failures is exponentially
distributed). Each failure is followed by a constant
restoration or repair time. The assumption on the
breakdown distribution represents systems with
many unreliable sources or components, each
susceptible to breakdown (see Barlow and Proschan, 1965). Furthermore, the assumption that
the restoration time is constant, approximately
describes the repair process of modern manufacturing equipment that is frequently based on
modular design. We assume that at the time a new
orderP is being placed, there are already
n mj1 nj 1 lots scheduled for processing
(with m lots currently being processed). Let nj be
the number of lots queued at Center j. Let
Lij i 1; 2; . . . ; nj represent the ith lot waiting
to be processed at Center j. Lots L1 ; L2 ; . . . ; Lm are
the ones currently being processed at Centers
1; 2; . . . ; m, respectively. Each lot requires a setup
time before its processing begins. The problem can
then be stated as follows:
Consider a make-to-order manufacturing
system and assume that an order is about
to be placed. The order could be from an
outside customer or could be internal (e.g.,
a subassembly component). The order
should be completed and delivered within a
certain time window. As a result, management would like to determine how to schedule this order among the processing centers
so as to minimize the total operating cost
and/or how to assign a lead-time due date
for this order that does not violate the speci®ed time window.
To respond to the above statement, few
preliminary results are needed. The following notation will be used throughout the rest of the paper.
Notation
kj
sj
Xj
qij
qj
Rij
rj
sij
Uj
Uij
Nj
Nij
Cij
rij
Pi
k1 skj
hij qj =r
Pj
ik1 qkj =Rkj
Q
xj
sj
Sj sj rnj ;j
Rj
N xj
357
failure rate of Center j
repair time of Center j
generic random variable
(r.v.) of the sequence of
up-times when Center j is
processing a lot
size of Lot Lij
size of Lot Lj
processing rate of units
from Lot Lij
processing rate of units
from Lot Lj
setup time of Lot Lij
total time to process
Lot Lj (r.v.)
total time to process
Lot Lij (r.v.)
number of failures of
Center j until Lot Lj
has been completed
(r.v.)
number of failures of
Center j until Lot Lij
has been completed (r.v.)
completion time of Lot Lij
(r.v.)
total setup time incurred
before processing of Lot Lij
begins
total deterministic
processing time including
that of Lot Lij
size of the order about to be
placed
portion of Q to be manufactured at Center j
(decision variable)
setup time associated with
Lot xj at Center j
total setup time before
Lot xj begins processing
processing rate of units
from Lot xj
number of failures of
Center j until Lot xj
has been completed
(r.v.)
358
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
2.2. Preliminary results
It is not dicult to see that the processing time
of a particular lot at a particular center is the sum
of the processing time without interruptions and
the time spent in repairs. As a result, we have
Uj qj =rj sj Nj ;
1
Uij qij =Rij sj Nij :
2
Proposition 1. Uj Uij has a Poisson distribution at
mass points unj qj =rj nsj unij qij =Rij nsj ,
for n 0; 1; 2; . . . In other words,
n
PrfUj unj g kj qj =rj eÿkj qj =rj =n!;
and
PrfUij unij g kj qij =Rij n eÿkj qij =Rij =n!
for n 0; 1; . . .
For the purpose of clarity, all proofs are deferred to the Appendix A.
Proposition 2. Cij has a Poisson distribution at mass
points cnij rij hij nsj , for n 0; 1; 2; . . . In
other words,
n
PrfCij cnij g kj hij eÿkj hij =n!
for n 0; 1; . . .
Proposition 3. The expected inventory of finished
items until Lot xj has been completed is given by
ÿ
ÿ
3
Ij xj x2j 1 kj sj =2Rj :
Notice that the dimension of Ij xj is in (unit)
(time unit).
2.3. Mathematical formulation
First, we have the following relationship:
m
X
xj Q:
4
j1
Using Proposition 2, the completion time of Lot
xj , Cj xj , has a Poisson distribution at mass points
cnj Sj xj =Rj hnj ;j nsj
In other words,
n
o
Pr Cj xj cnj
ÿ ÿ
n
kj xj =Rj hnj ;j eÿkj
for n 0; 1; 2; . . .
xj =Rj hnj ;j
=n!:
5
For Lot xj to be scheduled at Center j, let Aj
denote the setup cost, pj denote the production
cost per unit, h denote the unit inventory carrying
cost of ®nished products per time unit and b denote the unit backlog cost of ®nished products per
time unit. We assume that the added value between the un®nished work and ®nished work is an
order of magnitude higher. As a result, the inventory carrying cost of un®nished products is
neglected. Let Tj denote the planned lead-time
due date of Lot xj (Tj is a decision variable). The
operating cost associated with Lot xj is then given
by
ÿ
fj xj ; Tj Aj d xj pj xj h 1 kj sj x2j =2Rj
ÿ
hxj E Tj ÿ Cj xj
ÿ
bxj E Cj xj ÿ Tj :
6
Here, c maxfc; 0g for any real number c, and
d xj denotes the indicator function de®ned as
follows: d x 1 if x 6 0 and d x 0 otherwise.
The ®rst term in Eq. (6) represents the setup cost
incurred if Center j were to be used. The second
term represents the production cost at Center j.
The third term represents the average in-process
inventory cost of ®nished items at Center j, (i.e.,
hIj xj ). The fourth term represents the inventory
cost associated with a lot completed before its
planned lead-time due date. The last term represents the backlog penalty associated with a lot
completed after its planned lead-time due date. It
is not dicult to show that
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
ÿ
E Tj ÿ Cj xj
mj
X
ÿ
Tj ÿ Sj ÿ xj =Rj ÿ hnj ;j ÿ nsj
n0
n
o
Pr Cj xj cnj ;
ÿ
E C j xj ÿ Tj
ÿ
E Tj ÿ Cj xj Sj xj =Rj hnj ;j
ÿ
sj kj xj =Rj hnj ;j ÿ Tj :
7
8
mj b Tj ÿ Sj ÿ xj =Rj ÿ hnj ;j =sj c with bxc being
the largest integer no greater than x.
The objective function Eq. (6) assumes that the
order can be partially delivered at planned leadtime due dates Tj . At this stage, we will adopt a
general approach to formulate the problem. Later,
we will discuss dierent situations including the
case of no partial deliveries. We also assume that
shipment time is not signi®cant compared to
completion time. Further, we assume that shipment costs are linear in the shipment size. This last
assumption allows us to treat shipment costs implicitly rather than explicitly. Indeed, the per unit
shipment cost can be added to the per unit production cost. The formal optimization model can
be written as follows:
P
Minimize
f x; T
s.t.
m
X
j1
xj Q;
m
X
j1
fj xj ; Tj
3. The case of a rushed order
10
j 1; . . . ; m;
11
TL ÿ Tj 6 0;
j 1; . . . ; m;
12
j 1; . . . ; m:
13
0
that Lot xj be completed and delivered no earlier
than Time TL . Constraint set (13) represents the
usual non-negativity constraints. Problem (P) is
formulated in such a way that it can be used either
as a tool for estimating or as a tool for negotiating
the lead-time due date and price (i.e., operating
cost plus a pro®t margin) of a certain order. In the
®rst case, by setting the value of TU to in®nity, one
obtains the minimum operating cost lead-time(s)
due date. This case happens when a customer is
willing to wait for whatever time it takes to complete the order. In the second case, if a customer is
not satis®ed with the initially proposed lead-time
due date (i.e., at the lowest operating cost), an
earlier lead-time due date can be assigned to the
variable TU and another lead-time due date is determined. It is clear that the operating cost will
increase. The incremental cost can be either partially or totally passed to the customer at the discretion of the ®rm. The negotiation process
continues until an agreement is reached. The lower
bound on the order completion time, TL , is added
to make the model more general, or TL may denote
the time until which the shop ¯oor is already
committed and hence the order cannot start
sooner. This situation happens when a customer
speci®es a time window for her order lead-time due
date to avoid having the order before it is needed
(e.g., in a Just-In-Time context).
9
Tj ÿ TU 6 0;
xj P 0;
359
0
Here, x x1 ; x2 ; . . . ; xm and T T1 ; T2 ; . . . ; Tm
are two m-dimensional vectors. Constraint (11)
makes sure that Lot xj be completed and delivered
no later than Time TU . Constraint (12) makes sure
This situation arises when a customer is in a
hurry to receive her order and does not care much
about the price to be quoted to her. Also, if the
order is internal and is running behind schedule, it
has to be rushed and ®nished as early as possible.
Note that this situation does not describe expediting an order, since we do not allow bumping out
previously scheduled orders.
To capture this aspect, we have to split the
order on as many centers as possible so that the
smallest possible lead-time due date(s) is achieved.
The idea is to order the centers (in the stochastic
sense) in ascending order of their workload (i.e.,
according to their earliest availability epoch), then
assign lots to the earliest available centers ®rst.
360
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Before we provide a procedure for ®nding the
shortest completion time(s) at the centers, we need
to discuss what we mean by stochastic ordering. A
common way to compare the magnitude of two
random variables is by so-called stochastic ordering (see Ross, 1982).
De®nition 1. We say that a random variable X is
stochastically larger than a random variable Y,
denoted X P st Y , if PrfX P ag P PrfY P ag, for
all a. This is equivalent to Eg X P Eg Y , for
all non-decreasing functions g.
This is a very strong ordering, which can be
best illustrated by its coupling property: X P st Y if
and only if there exist two random variables X
and Y on a common probability space that have
the same probability distributions as X and Y,
respectively, and such that Pr fX P Y g 1.
We now use the above results to derive rules for
stochastically ordering the processing centers according to their availability time. Let Nj t denote
a Poisson random variable with mean kj t.
De®nition 2. The availability time of Center j is
given by the random variable
Ej Sj hnj ;j sj Nj hnj ;j :
Proposition 4. Let Ej and Ek be the availability time
at centers j and k, respectively. Then,
ÿ
Ej P st Ek () Sj ÿ Sk hnj ;j 1 kj sj
ÿ hnk ;k 1 kk sk P 0:
An immediate consequence of Proposition 4 is
that we can stochastically order the centers in ascending order of their availability time. Now, to
obtain the shortest completion time in the stochastic sense, we ®rst note that Proposition 4 applies to the completion time of lots xj and xk as
follows:
ÿ
Cj xj P st Ck xk
ÿ
ÿ
() Sj ÿ Sk xj =Rj hnj ;j 1 sj kj
ÿ xk =Rk hnk ;k 1 sk kk P 0:
Using this last result, we note that if a center is
selected and assigned a lot, then its completion
time cannot exceed the completion time of another
selected center. As a consequence, the centers must
be assigned lots such that, they all ®nish (in the
stochastic sense) processing at the same time. Algorithm 1, below, is based on this result. First,
assign to the earliest available center, say Center i,
a lot such that the completion time of Lot xi at
Center i equals the availability time of the next
center, say Center k. If the order quantity is not
exhausted, then assign lots to Centers i and k, such
that their completion time equals the next availability time. Continue in this fashion until all Q
units of the order are assigned.
Algorithm 1 (Rushed order).
Initialization Step: Sort center indexes according to
increasing values of Sj hnj ;j sj kj hnj ;j , j
1; . . . ; m. For convenience, label the centers according to the above sorting criterion. That is,
S1 hn1 ;1 1 s1 k1 6 S2 hn2 ;2 1 s2 k12 6 6 S2
hn2 ;2 1 s2 k2 . For j 1; . . . ; m, let xj : 0 and set
j : 1. Go to Main Step.
Main Step: For i 1; 2; . . . ; j, set
ÿ
yi : Ri Sj1 hnj1 ;j1 1 sj1 kj1
ÿ Si ÿ hni ;i 1 si ki = 1 si ki :
14
Pij
Set Q0 : Q ÿ i1 yi . If Q0 > 0, set xi : yi , for
i 1; 2; . . . ; j, and set j : j 1. If j m, go to
Termination Step, otherwise,
go to Main Step. If
Pij
Q0 6 0, set Q0 : Q ÿ i1 xi and go to Termination Step.
Termination Step: Solve the following system of
linear equations:
y1 y2 yj Q0
y1 1 s1 k1 =R1 y2 1 s2 k2 =R2
..
.
ÿ
ÿ
yjÿ1 1 sjÿ1 kjÿ1 =Rjÿ1 yj 1 sj kj =Rj :
15
Set xi : xi yi for i 1; 2; . . . ; j.
The set of equations (14) allows the assignment
of lots to Centers 1 through j such that they all
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
complete processing at the expected availability
time of Center j 1. Linear system (15) allows
dividing any remaining units from the order
among the chosen centers, so that all the centers
®nish processing (in the stochastic sense) at the
same time. In fact, (15) can be solved in closed
form using the following formulae:
y i Q 0 Ri = 1 k i s i
for i 1; . . . ; j:
kj
X
k1
Rk = 1 k k s k
At this stage one may calculate the expected
completion time of Lots xj at the selected centers
and may use these as the quoted delivery date. But
a quoted delivery date based on expectations only,
may not be accurate since it ignores the distribution of the completion times. Now, given the distribution of the completion time of Lots xj , one
can derive the lead-time due date(s) of the entire
order. This may be achieved by minimizing the
weighted expected deviation from the planned
lead-time due date(s). For Center j, this is given by
ÿ
ÿ
fj Tj hxj E Tj ÿ Cj xj bxj E Cj xj ÿ Tj :
361
Here mj b Tj ÿ Sj ÿ xj =Rj ÿ hnj ;j =sj c. In other
words, Tj is the value for which Expression (17)
exceeds b= b h, through mj , for the first time.
Remark. The term b= b h represents the probability that the actual completion time of a lot is less
than the quoted lead-time due date. Therefore, it
could be thought of as a measure of the service level
that the manufacturer would like to achieve. The
latter could be set according to a certain industry
standard.
Since the centers complete at the same time on
average, we expect the Tj Õs to be equal. But, because the completion time at a center is discrete,
there may be a slight dierence in the Tj Õs. The
latter are computed using (17). First, mj is calculated starting with mj 0, then mj 1, and so on
until condition (17) is satis®ed. Then, Tj is calculated using
Tj sj mj Sj xj =Rj hnj ;j :
18
The quoted delivery date could be calculated
using the following:
16
fj Tj denotes the weighted deviation from the
planned lead-time, Tj , at Center j. Here, h and b
can be thought of as penalties incurred for completing Lot xj before or after its planned lead-time
due date, respectively. Notice that minimizing
fj Tj is equivalent to solving a Newsboy Problem
where Tj is equivalent to the quantity to be ordered, Cj xj is equivalent to the demand to be
satis®ed, hxj is equivalent to the unit overage cost
and bxj is equivalent to the unit shortage cost. The
following proposition is a direct consequence of
the Newsboy ProblemÕs results and therefore its
proof is omitted.
Proposition 5. fj Tj is convex in Tj and attains its
minimum at the value Tj where
mj
n
o
X
Pr Cj xj cnj
Pr Cj xj 6 Tj
n0
P b= h b:
17
n o
T max Tj :
j;xj >0
19
To illustrate the above algorithm, consider a
simple example of a manufacturing system consisting of four processing centers. Table 1 gives the
characteristics of the processing centers. The order
size is Q 100 units, h $1/unit/time unit and
b $10/unit/time unit.
The expected availability time summarizes the
data for the already scheduled orders (i.e., indicates the workload at a speci®c center). The result
of running Algorithm 1 indicates that 23 units of
the order should be scheduled for processing at
Center 1, 48 units to be scheduled for processing at
center 3, and 29 units to be scheduled for processing at Center 4. The lead-time due dates to be
quoted are T1 12:9 days, T3 13:3 days, and
T4 12:8 days. Therefore, the earliest time the
order can be delivered is after 13.3 days of its receipt. Note that this lead-time due date will be met
with a probability of 91% (service level).
362
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Table 1
Processing centersÕ data
Processing centers
Failure rate (per day)
Restoration time (in days)
Processing rate (units/day)
Expected availability time (in days)
1
2
3
4
1
0.25
10
9
0.75
0.5
10
17
1
0.5
15
7
0.25
0.33
20
10
4. The case of a regular order
4.1. Exact solution approach
In this section, we study the case of customers
who are willing to wait for their order as long as
necessary so that they are quoted the lowest
price. The goal is to determine a lead-time due
date(s) that minimizes the total operating cost of
the entire order. This is achieved by solving
Problem (P):
To be able to solve Problem (P), ®rst ®x the Tj Õs
and de®ne the function f T as
P
s:t:
Minimize
g x; T 6 0:
f x; T
m
X
j1
fj xj ; Tj
20
21
x and T are the vectors of lot sizes and lead-time
due dates, and f and g denote the objective function (9) and constraints (10)±(13), respectively.
Notice that Problem (P) can be easily transformed
into a mixed 0±1 nonlinear optimization problem
with a nonlinear objective function and linear
constraints. Indeed, since we do not know which
centers are to be used for the current order, the
d xj 's are 0±1 decision variables as well. In general, Problem (P) is very dicult to solve. If the
Tj Õs are ®xed and we ignore the nonlinear terms of
the objective function, then the problem reduces to
the ®xed-charge problem (see Murty, 1968). By
employing an extreme-points ranking solution
procedure, the number of vertices is factorial in the
number of constraints. This implies that a solution
procedure may have to rank all possible vertices before identifying the optimal vertex. In
Section 4.1, we present an exact solution approach using a dynamic programming formulation. Section 4.2 deals with heuristic
algorithms.
f T Minf f x; T jg x; T 6 0g;
22
so that f T is the minimum cost solution to (9)±
(13) if vector T is ®xed. Proposition 5 indicates
that f T is jointly convex in T (Because the Tj Õs
are independent decision variables). Further, f T
exists on the bounded set de®ned by constraints
(11) and (12). Now let us focus on how to obtain
the optimal solution f T given T. Because
f x; T is neither convex nor concave in the vector
x, and especially because of the presence of the
®xed charges (i.e., the setup costs), we cannot use
any of the conventional nonlinear programming
tools. Instead, we use a Dynamic Programming
(DP) approach to solve for x in f x; T , given a
®xed vector T. Let /l q represent the minimum
objective function value when q units are split
among Centers 1; 2; . . . ; l. Then the following DP
solves Problem (P), for a given lead-time due date
vector, T.
Procedure 1: DP algorithm
Recurrence relation:
/l1 q
min f/l q ÿ xl1 fl1 xl1 ; Tl1 g;
0 6 xl1 6 q
q 2 0; Q;
l 2 0; m ÿ 1:
Boundary conditions:
/0 q 0 if q 0 and
/0 q 1; otherwise:
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Optimal policy: Optimal lot sizes at each stage:
x1 ; x2 ; . . . ; xm .
Optimal objective function value: /m Q.
The state space of the DP is O mQ. An iteration of the recurrence relation takes O Q time.
Hence, Problem (P) can be solved in O mQ2 time.
Once the DP has been solved, the lot sizes
x1 ; x2 ; . . . ; xm are used in the expression of f T .
The latter is then optimized with respect to the
lead-time due date vector T (depending on whether
partial deliveries are allowed or not). The optimal
lead-time due date vector T, say T , is then plugged back into the expression of f T and the DP
is solved again for the xj Õs, and so forth until either
the lot sizes or the lead-time due date(s) converge.
First, we study the case of allowed partial deliveries.
363
proposition characterizes the optimal value of T,
given a vector x of lot sizes. Again, this is a
straightforward extension of the Newsboy problem. Hence, its proof is omitted.
Proposition 6. f T is convex in T and attains its
minimum at T satisfying
m
X
ÿ
j1
ÿ
xj =Q Pr Cj xj 6 T P b= b h:
23
ÿ
Here mj b T ÿ Sj ÿ xj =Rj ÿ hnj ;j =sj c. In other
words, T is the minimum value for which Expression (23) is satisfied.
To solve for T in Eq. (23), we use the following
procedure.
Procedure 2: Computing T
4.1.1. The case of allowed partial deliveries
In this case, since given xj ; fj xj ; Tj is convex
in Tj ; Tj is computed using Proposition 5. The
algorithm to solve Problem (P) in this case is the
following:
Algorithm 2 (Regular order ± partial deliveries
allowed).
Initial Step: Choose a feasible vector of planned
lead-time due dates T 0 . Let xk and T k be the vector
of lot sizes and the vector of planned lead-time due
dates at the kth iteration, respectively. Set k : 1,
x0 : 0. Let e be a scalar. Go to Main Step.
Initialization Step: Set mj : 0, for j 1; 2; . . . ; m.
Main Step: Evaluate Expression (23) using the mj Õs
set before. If Expression (23) is satis®ed, go to
Termination Step. If not, Compute Tj
sj mj 1 Sj xj =Rj hnj ;j , for j 1; 2; . . . ; m.
Set l : arg min Tj , and ml : ml 1. Go to
16j6N
Main Step.
Termination Step:
min
sj mj Sj xj =Rj hnj ;j :
T
1 6 j 6 N ; xj >0
Main Step: Solve for xk using Procedure 1 (i.e., the
DP algorithm). Solve for T k as follows: Tjk
sj mkj Sj xkj =Rj hnj ;j ; If Tjk > TU set Tjk : TU ; If
Tjk < TL set Tjk : TL . This assures the feasibility of
Tjk . mkj is calculated using (17). If kxk ÿ xkÿ1 k 6 e or
kT k ÿ T kÿ1 k 6 e, go to Termination Step. Otherwise, set k : k 1 and go to Main Step.
Initialization Step: Choose a feasible planned leadtime due date T 0 . Let xk and T k be the vector of lot
sizes and the planned lead-time due date at the kth
iteration, respectively. Set k : 1, x0 : 0. Let e be
a scalar. Go to Main Step.
4.1.2. The case of no partial deliveries allowed
In this case, the vector of planned lead-time due
dates reduces to a scalar T. Algorithm 2 can still be
used with slight modi®cations. The following
Main Step: Solve for xk using Procedure 1 (i.e., the
DP algorithm). Use Procedure 2 to compute T k . If
T k > TU set T k : TU ; If T k < TL set T k : TL . If
kxk ÿ xkÿ1 k 6 e or T k ÿ T kÿ1 6 e, go to Termination Step, otherwise set k : k 1 and go to Main
Step.
Termination Step: x : xk ; T : T k . The minimum objective function value is f T .
Algorithm 3 (Regular order ± no partial deliveries
allowed).
364
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Termination Step: x : xk , T : T k .
Before we proceed any further, we note that
Algorithms 2 and 3 are heavily dependent on the
starting vector of planned lead-time due dates T 0 .
A good starting solution will spare several iterations (especially that each iteration involves a DP
algorithm and cost evaluation is costly because of
the discrete nature of the distribution of the completion times). To develop a good startup procedure, we ®rst note that the bulk of the cost
associated with the use of a particular center j is
given by
f~j xj Aj d xj pj xj h 1 kj sj =2Rj x2j :
Notice that f~j is a quadratic function with a
®xed charge. Furthermore, f~j is strictly increasing in its argument. Now, consider the following
optimization problem:
(
m
m
X
X
xj Q;
f~j xj
P0 Minimize f~ x
j1
xj P 0;
j1
)
j 1; . . . ; m :
Problem (P0 ) can be solved using the above DP
procedure with fj xj ; Tj replaced by f~j xj . The
solution of problem (P0 ), say x0 , is then used to
generate a starting vector of lead-time due date(s).
To illustrate Algorithms 2 and 3, we use the
same example as in Section 3. Table 2 provides
additional data for the example.
Applying Algorithm 2 to the above example
indicates that the whole order (100 units) should
be scheduled for processing at Center 4. The leadtime due date to be quoted is T4 17 days. The
operating cost of the regular order is $2844, while
the operating cost of a rushed order is $4851. Here,
we notice that for regular orders, the cheapest
center(s) (in terms of production and setup cost)
are the one(s) that are selected, while for rushed
orders, the earliest available centers are the ones
that are selected. Also, we notice that a rushed
order uses more centers than a regular one, to take
advantage of parallel processing. Applying Algorithm 3 gives exactly the same results since only
one center is used (i.e., T T4 ). In Section 4.2, we
develop a heuristic solution to the regular order
case.
4.2. Heuristic solution approach
The motivation for developing a heuristic solution to the case of regular order is based on the
following main reasons. First, as we will see later,
the heuristics require only information about the
mean and variance of the completion time at a
particular center. Indeed, in many practical situations, data about the type of distribution of the
failure or repair processes is not available. However, statistics such as averages and standard deviations are usually readily available. Second, any
other assumptions about the distribution of the
failure or the repair processes will result in very
complicated expressions of the completion times
that cannot be expressed in closed form (i.e.,
mixed discrete and continuous distributions expressed as convoluted multiple integrals). Third,
the proposed heuristics are faster than the algorithms we developed in the previous sections.
Before we develop the heuristics, we need the
following preliminary results. Let the expected
value of the random variable Cj xj equal to
lj xj Sj Kj hnj ;j xj =Rj ;
where Kj 1 kj sj . Then, we have
Table 2
Order cost information
Processing centers
Setup cost ($)
Production cost ($/unit)
1
2
3
4
800
20
500
16
1000
23
600
18
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
ÿ
ÿ
E Cj xj ÿ Tj E Cj xj ÿ Tj lj xj ÿ Tj =2;
ÿ
ÿ
E Tj ÿ Cj xj E Cj xj ÿ Tj ÿ lj xj Tj =2:
Substituting in the expression of fj xj ; Tj and rearranging terms, we obtain
fj xj ; Tj Aj d xj pj xj hKj x2j =2Rj
ÿ
b ÿ hxj lj xj ÿ Tj =2
b hxj E Cj xj ÿ Tj =2:
Using Cauchy±Schwartz inequality, we have
q
ÿ
2
E Cj xj ÿ Tj 6 E Cj xj ÿ Tj
q
ECj2 xj ÿ 2lj xj Tj Tj2
q
ÿ
2
lj xj lj xj ÿ Tj :
Notice that the last term to the right of the inequality requires the knowledge of only the ®rst
two moments of the distribution of the completion
time at a particular center as opposed to the lefthand side of the inequality which requires the
knowledge of the distribution of the completion
times. Letting
f~j xj ; Tj Aj d xj pj xj hKj x2j =2Rj
ÿ
b hxj : lj xj ÿ Tj
q
ÿ
2
2;
lj xj lj xj ÿ Tj
we obtain fj xj ; Tj 6 f~j xj ; Tj , for j 1; 2; . . . ; m.
P
Therefore, f x; T 6 f~ x; T mj1 f~j xj ; Tj . This
last inequality follows from the fact that all terms
are positive. The main idea of the heuristic is to
minimize f~ x; T instead of f x; T , and hope to
obtain a good solution to the original problem.
Property 1. For a fixed value of Tj , f~j xj ; Tj is
strictly increasing in xj .
Tj lj xj
qhp pi.
lj xj b=h ÿ h=b 2:
365
24
The result follows immediately by taking the
derivative with respect to Tj , setting it to zero, and
solving for Tj . Convexity is due to the fact that the
second derivative of f~j xj ; Tj with respect to Tj is
strictly positive.
Property 3. For a fixed vector x, and a scalar T,
f~ x; T is strictly convex in T. The minimum value
of f~ x; T is attained for T satisfying the following
condition:
m
X
ÿ
ÿ
q
ÿ
2
xj =Q T ÿ lj xj
lj xj T ÿ lj xj
=
j1
b ÿ h= b h:
25
Convexity follows from Property 2. The expression for T is derived by taking the derivative
with respect to T, and setting it to zero. Now that
we have the necessary tools to develop our heuristics, we ®rst start with the case of allowed partial
deliveries.
4.2.1. Heuristic for the case of allowed partial
deliveries
In this case, the Tj Õs are given in closed form.
Substituting Tj in f~j xj ; Tj gives
pq
f~j xj Aj d xj pj xj bh lj xj xj
hKj x2j =2Rj :
26
To minimize f~ x j1 f~j xj , we use Procedure 1 with f~j xj as given in (26). Because of
the constraints imposed on the Tj Õs, namely
TL 6 Tj 6 TU , the DP procedure has to be modi®ed.
First, let xLj and xU
j be the lower bound and upper
bound on xj , respectively, obtained by solving for
xLj and xU
j , respectively, in the following equations:
Pm
The proof is straightforward, therefore omitted.
TL lj xLj
Property 2. For a fixed value of xj , f~j xj ; Tj is
strictly convex in Tj and attains its minimum at
TU lj xU
j
qhp pi.
lj xLj b=h ÿ h=b 2:
qhp pi.
lj xU
b=h ÿ h=b 2:
j
27
28
366
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
This can be accomplished using a classical numerical method such as bisection search. In addition, because we must have 0 < xLj < xU
j < Q, then
if Q < xLj , Center j cannot be used (since any
quantity assigned to that center has to be greater
than xLj to satisfy due date constraints). If xU
j > Q
Q.
Using
these
arguments,
Prothen, we let xU
j
cedure 2 is modi®ed as follows.
tion Step, otherwise, set k : k 1 and go to Main
Step.
Termination Step: x : xk , T : T k .
5. Numerical results
5.1. Sensitivity of rushed orders to service level
Algorithm 4 (Heuristic ± partial deliveries allowed).
Initialization Step: Compute xLj and xU
j using (27)
and (28), respectively. If xLj > Q, eliminate f~j :
from the list of f~j Õs. It is not feasible to use Center
U
L
U
j. If xU
j > Q then, let xj Q. Round o xj and xj
to the nearest integer. Go to Main Step.
Main Step: Solve for the vector x using DP Procedure 1 with f~j : rede®ned as fj xj f~j xj if
xLj 6 xj 6 xU
j and fj xj 1 otherwise. Let x be
the optimal solution and go to Termination Step.
Termination Step:
Tj lj xj
qhp pi
lj xj b=h ÿ h=b =2:
4.2.2. Heuristic for the case of no partial deliveries
allowed
In this case, T must satisfy condition (25). The
following algorithm gives the optimal values of the
vector of lot sizes, x, and the planned lead-time
due date, T.
Because rushed orders are more sensitive to the
service level, we study its impact on the quoted
lead-time due date as well as the operating cost.
We use the data given in Table 1. Fig. 1 shows the
variation of the lead-time due date as a function of
the service level. Notice that high service levels
(90% and above) result in much longer lead-times
than moderate service levels (60±80%). Fig. 2
shows the impact of service level on the operating
cost (In fact, since the production, setup and inventory costs will be the same, the ®gure reports
only the part of the cost that is aected by the
choice of a service level). Again, we notice that
very high service levels are very expensive compared to moderate service levels.
5.2. Performance of the heuristics for regular orders
In this section, we experiment with randomly
generated data to assess the performance of the
two heuristics developed for the case of regular
Algorithm 5 (Heuristic ± no partial deliveries allowed).
Initialization Step: Let xk and T k be the vector of
lot sizes and the planned lead-time due date at the
kth iteration, respectively. A starting lot size vector
x0 can be obtained by solving Problem (P0 ). Then,
T 0 is obtained by solving (25) numerically. Set
k : 1. Let e be a scalar. Go to Main Step.
Main Step: Plug the value of T kÿ1 in all f~j Õs. Solve
for xk using DP Procedure 1. Using the vector of
lot sizes xk , compute T k using Condition (25). If
T k > TU set T k : TU ; If T k < TL set T k : TL . If
kxk ÿ xkÿ1 k 6 e or T k ÿ T kÿ1 6 e, go to Termina-
Fig. 1. Quoted lead-time due date as a function of the service
level.
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Fig. 2. Cost of service as a function of the service level.
order. But ®rst, we present the data used in these
experiments. The parameters used to generate the
problem data sets are speci®ed in Table 3. These
parameters have p
been
drawn
p from a uniform distribution U l ÿ 3r; l 3r, where l represents the mean and r represents the standard
deviation of the generated random numbers. In all
Table 3
Experimental data
Processing centers
Mean time to failure 1=kj
Restoration time sj
Queued orders data
Number of lots queued at Center j:
nj
Quantity to be processed at Center j:
qij
Processing speed at Center j: Rij
Setup time at Center j: sij
In-process orders
Quantity to be processed at Center j:
qj
Processing speed at Center j: rj
Order to be scheduled
Setup cost at Center j: Aj
Production cost at Center j: pj
Holding cost: h
Backlog cost: b
Order size: Q
Processing speed at Center j: Rj
Setup time at Center j: sj
20 days
2 days
5 lots
15 units
10 units/day
2 days
75 units
10 units/day
$500
$5/unit
10% of average
(pj )
b 10 h
100 units
10 units/day
2 days
367
cases, the standard deviation is chosen to be 50%
the value of the mean. Since, in this case, the
uniform distribution is completely speci®ed by its
mean, only the latter is shown in Table 3. Two
criteria are used to evaluate the performance of the
heuristics; namely the cost gap and the service gap.
The cost gap de®ned as the relative dierence between the cost of the heuristic solution and the cost
of the optimal solution. The service gap de®ned as
the relative dierence between the service level
achieved by the heuristic solution and the service
level achieved by the optimal solution. The numbers shown in Table 4 are averages over 30 instances for a particular number of centers.
Looking at the cost gaps in Table 4, we see that the
two heuristics perform very well. The heuristic for
allowed partial deliveries performs better. This
could be explained by the fact that the heuristic for
no partial deliveries allowed, tends to in¯ate the
service level, which of course, results in higher
costs. It is important to note that because of the
discrete nature of the distribution of the completion time, the service level attained will always be
slightly higher than the nominal service level
b= h b (i.e., overshooting of b= h b in Propositions 5 and 6). Furthermore, because the
Cauchy±Schwartz inequality is based on the service component of the original cost function, the
heuristics always resulted in higher service levels.
6. Concluding remarks
In this paper, we considered a make-to-order
manufacturing system consisting of a set of unreliable processing centers. We were concerned with
the scheduling of a single order on the dierent
centers. We considered two main cases. Rushed
order and regular order. In the regular order case,
we considered two dierent delivery options: partial deliveries allowed and no partial deliveries allowed. In the case of rushed order, the lead-time
due date to be quoted to the order is minimized. In
the case of regular order, the expected operating
cost associated with the order is minimized. For
rushed order, an ecient algorithm was developed
based on the idea of stochastic ordering. For
regular order, two approaches were adopted. An
368
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Table 4
Heuristics performance
N
Partial deliveries allowed
No partial deliveries allowed
% Cost gap
% Service gap
% Cost gap
% Service gap
2
4
6
8
10
0.00
0.56
1.07
1.14
2.32
4.40
4.01
4.20
3.40
4.19
2.10
3.30
4.51
5.80
6.89
7.01
9.20
9.40
7.80
8.56
Average
1.01
4.04
4.52
8.39
exact approach consisting of a dynamic programming approach mixed with partial analytical results. A heuristic approach based on a very well
known inequality. Numerical results indicate that
the heuristics provide a very good approximation
to the optimal solution.
An interesting extension to this study is to test
the heuristics with other types of distributions for
the repair time at the centers. It should be noted
though that a closed form expression of the completion time at a center would be extremely dicult. However, for purposes of comparison,
numerical integration techniques are becoming
easier to handle with the advance of computer
technology.
If only the mean and variance of the time between failures and time to repair are available, it is
relatively easy to determine the mean and variance
of the completion time at a particular center (since
this is the only information needed for the development of the heuristics). In this case the heuristics
provide a robust solutions for the worst case scenarios.
Although, in this paper, we assumed that orders
are scheduled First-Come First-Served (i.e., dealing with a single order at a time), there are manufacturing systems that do not operate in this
fashion. A variant of this problem is to consider
the case where an incoming order with higher
priority (e.g., from a potential customer) is to be
scheduled before other orders or lots that have
been already scheduled. The question is which lots
to delay, and by how much time, to accommodate
the new order. What is the eect of rescheduling
orders on their operating cost? Should an increase
in their operating cost be passed to the new order?
In case of a reduction of operating cost, should the
savings be passed to a delayed order to compensate for the delay? All these are legitimate questions that can be answered once a model has been
established and solved. It turns out that this
problem is equivalent to rescheduling all existing
orders. Which in turn adds another level of diculty, that of sequencing orders on a several processing centers using the operating cost as the
optimization criterion for.
Appendix A
Proof of Proposition 1. The proof is straightforward and is a consequence of the fact that Nj and
Nij follow a Poisson distribution with a Probability
Mass Function (PMF)
ÿ
n
Pr Nj n kj qj =rj eÿkj qj =rj =n! and
ÿ
n
Pr Nij n kj qij =Rij eÿkj qij =Rij =n!;
n 0; 1; . . .
Proof of Proposition 2. Notice that
Cij Uj
i
X
k1
skj Ukj :
Applying (1) and (2), we have
Cij rij hij sj
!
i
X
Nj
Nkj :
k1
Because the sum of independent Poisson
r.v.Õs is a
Pi
Poisson r.v., it follows that Nj k1 Nkj has a
Poisson distribution with intensity kj hij (i.e.,
369
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
Pi
Nj k1 Nkj represents the total number of failures during hij ). Hence,
o ÿ
n
n
Pr Cij cnij kj hij eÿkj hij =n!;
n 0; 1; . . .
Ij x j
sj
N
xj
X
i1
ÿ
xj ÿ Vi :
/ q; Vi
q ÿ Vi
0
0 < Vi 6 q ;
otherwise:
Ij xj x2j =2Rj sj E
i1
Ij xj x2j =2Rj sj
1
X
Ij xj x2j =2Rj sj
1 Z
X
i1
i1
ÿ
xj ÿ Vi
!
;
ÿ
E/ xj ; Vi ;
1
0
ÿ
/ xj ; Vi d PrfVi 6 vg:
Assuming that the integrals are absolutely convergent, we obtain
Z xj
1
ÿ
X
xj ÿ v
d PrfVi 6 vg:
Ij xj x2j =2Rj sj
0
i1
Noticing that
i1
d PrfVi 6 vg dN v kj =Rj dv;
we obtain
xj ÿ v dv:
Proof of Proposition 4. We carry out the proof in
two stages. First, we show that if Nj t and Nk t,
t P 0, are two Poisson processes with intensity kj
and kk , respectively, then
Nj t P st Nk t () kj P kk :
A:1
To prove the ) part of (A.1), we use the de®nition of stochastic ordering.
Nj t P st Nk t () ENj t P ENk t () kj P kk :
)
Nj t s P st Nk t
for all s P 0:
Taking the expected value, we have
N
xj
X
0
ÿ
The result follows immediately after integrating
the above expression.
Nj t P st Nk t
xj
An immediate consequence is that
Let
1
X
sj kj =Rj
Z
Proof of Proposition 3. The proof is based on the inprocess inventory of un®nished items or cumulative
inventory of un®nished items Ij xj . The latter is
identical to the in-process inventory of ®nished
items, since the rate of consumption of un®nished
items is identical to
rate of buildup of ®nished
Pthe
i
items. Let Vi Rj k1 Xk represent the amount of
®nished items right after the ith failure. Then,
x2j =2Rj
Ij xj
x2j =2Rj
A:2
To prove the ( part of (A.1), we use the
coupling concept. Let Xk;1 ; Xk;2 ; . . . denote a sequence of inter arrival times that are i.i.d random
variables having an exponential distribution with
rate kk . Then, the Poisson process, generated by
Xk;1 ; Xk;2 ; . . ., say N~k t, has the same probability
law as Nk t. Now let Xj;1 ; Xj;2 ; . . . denote a sequence of inter arrival times that are i.i.d random
variables having an exponential distribution with
rate kk , and such that Xk;i P st Xj;i , i 1; 2; . . .
Then, the Poisson process, generated by Xj;1 ; Xj;2 ;
. . ., say N~j t, has the same probability law as Nj t.
Now, because Xk;i P st Xj;i for all i, it follows that
N~j t P st N~k t () Nj t P st Nk t:
coupling
The second part of the proof is straightforward,
using (A.1) and (A.2). Noticing that sj , sk , Sj , Sk ,
hnj ;j , and hnk ;k are all positive variables, we have
Nj hnj ;j P st Nk hnk ;k ()kj hnj ;j Pkk hnk ;k ;
sj Nj hnj ;j P st sk Nk hnk ;k ()sj kj hnj ;j Psk kk hnk ;k ;
Ej Pst Ek ()Sj hnj ;j sj kj hnj ;j PSk hnk ;k sk kk hnk ;k :
370
M. ElHafsi / European Journal of Operational Research 126 (2000) 355±370
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